ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[nextbigthing]

That's right, Freedom Foods is not going to sell on market, it will be off market. They don't want to push sp down. Just picked up some at .62c to add to my collection:t_up:

Who said they're going to sell. They simply said they're retaining the option to sell medium term.... like most of us.

[MAC]

Hey kid’s, there’s a new TV ad, just like being back at school,


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I_NzDrBGN50

[winner69]

If anybody wants to see what Freedom have on the drawing board an updated preso. Thy seem quite happy with A2. And they seem to have little capital gains tax liability if they ever sell A2

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=FNP&E=ASX&N=815319

[winner69]

Freedom could bought into ATM at under 10c years ago on NZAX.

When they sold down 40 million shares a year or so ago they got A$15.4 million, recording a pre tax profit of A$11.8m

So essentially free carry for them eh.

Been a good investment, whether that clouds their judgement about the future use of this $70m asset is anybody's guess

[Harrie]

Chairman Cliff Cook says: "The Company today is stronger and better
positioned than at any time previously. Our conservative balance sheet
provides a secure basis for our current growth plans in international
markets."

[blobbles]

My current low risk low growth value for ATM now stands at around 74c. Needless to say a higher growth outlook, picking up decent sales in the US and China is somewhat better. Not sure why anyone would be selling at these levels, I am in buy mode... then again I am investing for 1 year or two (or more) out, not short term gains... if the Synalit announcement comes through this month it should have a decent impact short term.

[winner69]

Pure speculation, no links or whatever

ATM Reinvigorating interest in ASX listing .....pump up the interest from Aussie investors who are much less risk adverse (ok they like believing stories) ......what an opportunity for Freedom to sell down or out .....could even dress it as something really special to the instos if ready market of retail nave stores wanting a piece of the action.

That the plan?

Be good, very good, for you guys

[Master98]

Not sure why anyone would be selling at these levels, I am in buy mode... then again I am investing for 1 year or two (or more) out, not short term gains... if the Synalit announcement comes through this month it should have a decent impact short term.

could be sparked by winner69 post regarding to freedom planning selling down their holding.

[NT001]

Here's Keith Woodford's latest message to the mainstream dairy industry suggesting why it needs to start taking notice of where the science on A1/A2 has been leading.

http://keithwoodford.wordpress.com/2014/09/01/teasing-out-the-beta-casein-evidence/#more-1119

[ziggy415]

Here's Keith Woodford's latest message to the mainstream dairy industry suggesting why it needs to start taking notice of where the science on A1/A2 has been leading.

http://keithwoodford.wordpress.com/2014/09/01/teasing-out-the-beta-casein-evidence/#more-1119
the A1/A2 debate seems to be hotting up but why is it only keith woodward that seems to get all the limelight.....is he the only one doing research

[Harrie]

According to him also there is a large volume of research nearing completion and about to be published from other sources

[hilskin]

An interesting write in the UK

http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/food-and-drink/features/cows-milk-for-the-lactose-intolerant-the-turning-pint-9704759.html

[ziggy415]

An interesting write in the UK

http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/food-and-drink/features/cows-milk-for-the-lactose-intolerant-the-turning-pint-9704759.html

ive been using A2 for about a month and most of the symptoms mentioned above have improved for me.. i thought it was glutten problem but seems like it was milk in my cuppa with lunch...have tried not to read to much into the results but i feel much better......had to go to 3 supermarkets yesterday to find any on the shelves

[hilskin]

I think this study is more about the benefits of milk whey rather than the difference in A1 and A2.
Curtin University researchers have revealed protein fragments from milk could help combat and reduce the risk of developing Australia’s fastest growing chronic disease, type 2 diabetes.
http://news.curtin.edu.au/media-releases/milk-could-combat-diabetes-curtin-research/

[see weed]

ive been using A2 for about a month and most of the symptoms mentioned above have improved for me.. i thought it was glutten problem but seems like it was milk in my cuppa with lunch...have tried not to read to much into the results but i feel much better......had to go to 3 supermarkets yesterday to find any on the shelves

I have no problem getting it at Countdown Mt. Wellington and Onehunga, but I do phone first to save a wasted trip. Bought 6 litres last week and gave 4 litres to family to promote it. Have also printed out a few flyers on the health benefits of a2 which I will be giving out to some of my customers in the future. Have a nice day, it is sunny in Auckland today:t_up:

[NT001]

the A1/A2 debate seems to be hotting up but why is it only keith woodward that seems to get all the limelight.....is he the only one doing research

It's really just that at one stage he was the only academic to take it seriously. Remember that the two original brains behind A2 Corporation, scientist Corran McLachlan and agricultural investor Howard Patterson, both died unexpectedly around the same time, leaving the whole A2 hypothesis pretty much without a promoter. Woodford was initially a non-believer, buying the Fonterra line that the argujments for A2 were fallacious, but after reading up on it came to the conclusion it "had legs" scientifically. He mastered the complexities of the subject which involve several branches of science, wrote the book on it ("Devil in the Milk") and has kept himself fully up to date on the research since. He is now one of the very few with a sufficiently broad scientific knowledge in areas as diverse as dairy genetics and human medical health to grapple with the subject, and who has the academic independence and professional reputation to take on the might of the mainstream dairy industry without worrying where his next tranche of research funding is going to come from. From reading his book I think he was quite motivated by his disappointment at seeing the power of the Dairy Board/Fonterra and NZ Food Safety Authority being used to shut down any discussion of the A1/A2 issue, an attitude he saw as both scientifically/medically outrageous and commercially suicidal for the industry.

As Harrie has mentioned, there's now a huge amount of research on A1/A2 going on internationally and nothing will stop it. It's establishing the links between A1 and gastrointestinal problems, autism, SIDS, type 2 diabetes, heart disease - you name it. But what it all needs very much is someone like Woodford who can pull it all together, analyse how the pieces correlate, and explain it to medical and health bodies, food safety organisations, nutritional and public health groups, the media, the general public and the farming industry.

[ziggy415]

I have no problem getting it at Countdown Mt. Wellington and Onehunga, but I do phone first to save a wasted trip. Bought 6 litres last week and gave 4 litres to family to promote it. Have also printed out a few flyers on the health benefits of a2 which I will be giving out to some of my customers in the future. Have a nice day, it is sunny in Auckland today:t_up:

its funny but ive never seen anyone promote A2 milk at grass roots level....ive seen wine companies in supermarkets...cheese companies etc all dishing free samples.....maybe Fonterra has too big a grip and A2milk deem it to hard to crack

[Harrie]

Fonterra is unlikely to have such a hold over NZ supermarkets that it could prevent an a2 promotion at supermarket level similar to a cheese and wine type promotion. Could you "feel the difference" as they say by one shot of a2 milk...I doubt it, but if it is promoted along side a leaflet handout going through a basic differentiation of facts backed up by current research then the idea has a lot of merit.
I could see a good angle in the UK: "Do you consider that you are lactose intolerant? It could just be the type of milk you were drinking. Try a2 milk" ....or something along those lines.
A2 want to promote initially to the captive 20% of the market that consider that they are lactose intolerant, but may have that view based on how the a1 protein may have reacted with them rather than the lactose element itself.

[winner69]

Mr Mair 'blind' to recent purchases

Does seem strange this fund seems to invest a lot in a couple of companies he is a director in. Maybe the mandate is simply 'just invest in what David is involved in'

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/forte-funds-share-purchases-prompt-disclosure-notices-skellerup-ceo-david-mair-bd-161795

[nextbigthing]

Has anybody done any figures as to how big ATM needs to get before they're self sustaining in the industry in that even IF A2 turned out to be a myth, they were big enough to just compete as a normal supplier anyway?

[Harrie]

Has anybody done any figures as to how big ATM needs to get before they're self sustaining in the industry in that even IF A2 turned out to be a myth, they were big enough to just compete as a normal supplier anyway?

Well it seems to me that given that it is still scientifically unproven, ATM have still picked up a sizable part of the Australian fresh milk market based purely on anecdotal "word & Mouth" testomony by hundreds of users. I would find it pretty hard to believe that those people are either phycologically swayed by marketing rhetoric, or just plainly stupid.
IMHO milk is milk even if the science remains inconclusive there will always be a market for it, so I don't see any real downside. The real issue seems to be centred more around ensuring supply can meet the demand.

[NT001]

Has anybody done any figures as to how big ATM needs to get before they're self sustaining in the industry in that even IF A2 turned out to be a myth, they were big enough to just compete as a normal supplier anyway?

It won't turn out to be a myth. No chance. Even the critics and doubters no longer really challenge the science, thanks to Woodford. If it was a myth, Fonterra and co would be saying so, and they actually gave that up years ago.

But it will take a while for the global scientific commuity to actually embrace the A2 hypothesis - that will be a gradual process. At the moment they're mostly sitting on the fence, with some aware that something is going on but not yet fully understanding it, and others not even aware.

I would have thought that A2 is already self-sustaining commercially, given that it has reached a stage of high profitability already in Australia even prior to being allowed to make any advertising claims as to its health benefits. Its success there has all been based on consumer experience and word of mouth, plus a very fortunate factor that is seldom acknowledged - a largely friendly media in Australia. In NZ, Fonterra has such a commercial hold over the media that they aren't going to run stories publicly questioning the safety of the milk we're served in the shops. Also, the NZ Food Safety Authority has very firmly (and dishonestly) suppressed any debate on the A2 issue, still insisting in the face of all the evidence that there's nothing in it.

But in Australia there's been a lot of media publicity for A2 based on consumer anecdotal experience. That could only happen once there was enough of the stuff available in the shops for a lot of people to suck it and see, ie people who think they're milk intolerant or who experience digestive discomfort when drinking milk. Australia's the only market where it's readily available as yet. Once it achieves a decent level of market availability in UK and US it should really take off. Articles like the one in The Independent the other day are publicity you just can't buy - they have huge credibility. Consumer experience is leading the way, and the science is gradually following behind, discovering why the consumer experience is positive. There's no science arguing the converse.

[ziggy415]

agree with you NT...but who is it thats selling shares and supressing share price....

[Harrie]

Its may be freedom, but more likely fund managers who are controlled by mandates which set exposures to any one specific stock. As I have said before trustees are governed by the trust deed not by their brain. They really don't have anyinvestment nowse, they just have a legal responsibility to remain within the terms of what has been set down in the mandate. I'm hoping its not Milford because as they depress the SP they may need to sell more to keep the balance right. For those who use their brain its a great opportunity to buy at these prices. The further it goes down the better the value.
There is nothing fundamentally changed in what ATM are doing than they were doing when the SP was up in the 90's!

[NT001]

agree with you NT...but who is it thats selling shares and supressing share price....

Can't answer that. I'm moot an analyst, just a happy and contented investor who has followed the A2 story for a long time and enjoys being part of A2's journey. I'm in for the long haul, not worrying too much about temporary manipulations, unless they seem to signal a hostile takeover is planned at a depressed price (or any price), which worries me slightly.

On the subject of SP manipulation, some of us will have just seen an interesting post (no. 11377) over on the PEB thread that could be relevant and a bit unnerving, especially to us non-traders. There are interesting analogies between ATM and PEB of course.

[see weed]

agree with you NT...but who is it thats selling shares and supressing share price....

It's not me, i'm still in buying mode, but holding back for a breather. Bit busy with election campaigns at the moment, but have noticed a couple of shareholders pushing sp down. Maybe they have a buy order in at 61c. And you know the story from there. As soon as their buy order has gone through, then their sell order disappears. Or it might be the opposite, I hope not.

[MAC]

Analysts have had a week to digest the results and that strategic growth outlook, and one just has to check on Yahoo or FT to see that revenue and earnings estimates have been revised already.

Valuations are to the upside, just needs a catalyst, dumb as it may seem, some are probably awaiting the Synlait announcement, sometime in the next couple of weeks

I’m not convinced that all have figured out that falling dairy prices is actually a positive for ATM too, the exchange rate dropping can’t be lost on most though.

[see weed]

Converted a pregnant woman in the egg department today, at the super market. I told her which eggs were free range, which she bought. Also told her to drink a2, which she had never heard of. I said it was a healthier choice for you and baby, and google it when you get home. Should all be good in the long run:).

[NT001]

Also told her to drink a2, which she had never heard of and google it when you get home. :).

You gotta be just a bit careful about that. I googled A2 milk the other day and the first site that came up was this one, an aussie one absolutely full of BS attacking A2 milk and saying it's a total hoax.

http://www.a2milkthefacts.com/

It didn't give any indication who was behind it, either. The Dirty Tricks brigade is active over there, as well as a lot of good guys.

[nextbigthing]

I see Freedom Foods have been buying up;

Trade Date 01-09-2014 Bought 162,500 Ordinary Shares for NZD 104,000
Trade Date 01-09-2014 Bought 500,000 Ordinary Shares for NZD 310,850
Trade Date 03-09-2014 Bought 180,000 Ordinary Shares for NZD 112,608
Trade Date 03-09-2014 Bought 100,000 Ordinary Shares for NZD 61,500

[ziggy415]

Converted a pregnant woman in the egg department today, at the super market. I told her which eggs were free range, which she bought. Also told her to drink a2, which she had never heard of. I said it was a healthier choice for you and baby, and google it when you get home. Should all be good in the long run:).
is it only pregnant women you can catch seeweed ;) .....see we all thought maybe freedom foods selling down but seems like they are buyers

[Joshuatree]

Congrats on being a parent seaweed:t_up:

[nextbigthing]

see we all thought maybe freedom foods selling down but seems like they are buyers

That quote from Freedom was misinterpreted by a few. They only said the retain the right to sell in the mid term future - like any investor!

Interesting that they should talk about selling (scaring people) while actually buying.

These shares are just becoming more and more tightly held by big players. MAC is right, it's a rocket waiting to go, it just needs an announcement to push the fire button. Good luck trying to get some when it goes...

Disc Hold

[NT001]

My guess is that whatever their medium term intentions, FF know better than most that the ATM price is artificially depressed at present and this is a time to buy. They also specialise in supplying healthy foods to people who are only too happy to pay a premium, so they understand what lies ahead for ATM, whether they want to stay in or cash up and leave at some stage. JoshuaTree, have you got an updated list of the top 100 in ATM?

[Harrie]

Very smart and interesting strategy by FF. Certainly sucked the market in by the "option to sell" comment on their latest report.
Would be interesting to see who the seller was for the volume that went thru recently. I'm picking that it is likely to be fund managers incl kiwisaver providers. Are you still out there Joshua tree?
I could not see any dates for any of the anti a2 commentary via the link that NT posted. I'm wondering how out of date those comments were?

[Hawkeye]

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/a2-cornerstone-shareholder-freedom-foods-buys-589k-shares-after-dilution-bd-161962

NBR's article on the above - its free

[nextbigthing]

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/a2-cornerstone-shareholder-freedom-foods-buys-589k-shares-after-dilution-bd-161962

NBR's article on the above - its free

Thanks Hawkeye.

'The stock is rated an average 'buy' based on four analyst recommendations compiled by Reuters, with a median target price of 80 cents'

[NT001]

I could not see any dates for any of the anti a2 commentary via the link that NT posted. I'm wondering how out of date those comments were?

That's exactly the point, Harrie. The site has actually been updated slightly in recent weeks, but it's a mess, and there's a lot of anti-A2 stuff which is mostly based on statements issued by food safety authorities about seven years ago.

At that time it was true to say there was insufficient clinical evidence for A2Corp to make any claims of health advantages in A2 milk (other than anecdotal). And more importantly for the FSAs, it was too early to issue any kind of public warnings that might make people scared to drink dairy milk and give it to their kids who need the nutrients.

The clinical evidence has accumulated since then, but the FSAs have not updated their advisories. The quandary they are in is this: There's now no real dispute that the digestion of A1 milk yields an opioid peptide (BCM7) which IN SOME CONSUMERS, ESPECIALLY SOME YOUNG INFANTS can get into the bloodstream and trigger nasty medical results including aspects of the autism syndrome, sudden infant death syndrome etc. But these effects still haven't been quantified, especially in humans, and no one is suggesting that the numbers of consumers affected is huge, so it would still be premature to start issuing health warnings about A1. It can be argued that the benefits of drinking milk with A1 still outweigh the known risks, and even the A2 Milk Company doesn't dispute that.

So, under pressure from the mainstream dairy industry the FSAs are doing nothing, just leaving up their old outdated stuff from 7 years ago that said there's no demonstrated health issue at all.

That is now garbage, especially since the Curtin trial but in fact since well before that. But what should they do?

In my view they should inform the public that there is now a growing body of scientific research indicating that SOME consumers react adversely to the A1 in standard milk, and there would be no harm in their trying A2 to see if it is helpful. That would be honest, it would have scientific integrity, and it would be good helpful advice that might in fact enable many consumers currently unable to tolerate dairy milk to embrace it.

[winner69]

Very smart and interesting strategy by FF. Certainly sucked the market in by the "option to sell" comment on their latest report.
Would be interesting to see who the seller was for the volume that went thru recently. I'm picking that it is likely to be fund managers incl kiwisaver providers. Are you still out there Joshua tree?
I could not see any dates for any of the anti a2 commentary via the link that NT posted. I'm wondering how out of date those comments were?

I don't think Freedom even thought of that as a strategy

All they were telling the market was where the A2 investment fitted into the scheme of things

You guys read too much into things methinks

[nextbigthing]

The directors were issued partly paid shares so overall there was a dilution. They bought some shares to minimize the dilution. See the number of shares in class.

[winner69]

I dont understand.... there notice indicates they now hold less than they did last time they gave notice 18% down to 17%
anyone else notice that

Their shareholding (and yours) been significantly diluted by all those director/ senior management optin conversions

[Harrie]

The dilution is not all one way. these were partly paid shares, so while there was a discount presumably to the market some of the directors and shareholders would have had to front with some folding.
If those shares were issued earlier this year when the price was in the high 80's and early 90s you may find that some of shareholders were partly paying shares based on somewhere around the high 70's or early 80's.
I am aware that over a million shares went to one executive at 0.76 per share. That was a pretty good signal to me that there was plenty of confidence in the future growth of the company.
Thanks for the background on where the FSA's are sitting at the mo NT.
I think that ATM's marketing in the UK to 20% of the milk intolerant is a good one to work on. It may be possible that a significant % of those may not be lactose intolerant, just intolerant to A1.

[winner69]

Harrie - the shares issued were at 55 64 and 72 and in all cases were only paid up to 1 cent in the $ (ie the 5 mil at 64 cents cash paid was only $32,000)

The Annual Report should give you more detail about the arrangements and whether any shortfall when full payment is called upon needs to be paid or whatever

As an aside Freedom got 400,000 free share last year to compensate them for the dilution under an old Agreement

[Harrie]

Thanks W69 for that info. Can't see the latest report on all this dilution, but last year there was around 32.5 mil of shares partly paid.(approx. 5% of total shares)
Buried in the 2013 annual report is info about tranches of shares. There is about 9 million that don't vest until 2016 and when they do they are fully paid up at $0.15 per share. I see that the anti dilution agreement with FF has ended now though.
I see also that these tranches were granted back when the SP was relatively low, so I hope that future share arrangements with senior staff are issued at better prices

[see weed]

I see somebody bought another 1,000,000 just on closing.

[Harrie]

yes at .63c. A total of around 2 mil shares traded. Who is selling?

[Master98]

a lot of shareholders like NT001 bought into ATM at under 10c years ago sell at 63c still a very good investment, isn't it.

[NT001]

a lot of shareholders like NT001 bought into ATM at under 10c years ago sell at 63c still a very good investment, isn't it.

Yes on paper it looks attractive, but it wouldn't happen. I'm not a trader, but an investor who's fallen in love with the company and believes it's got a long way to go before I kark. Start talking at $1.50.

[Harrie]

Yes on paper it looks attractive, but it wouldn't happen. I'm not a trader, but an investor who's fallen in love with the company and believes it's got a long way to go before I kark. Start talking at $1.50.

Well I hope you are right NT. when do you expect that to happen? If you are in your 90's that may be quite soon!

[see weed]

I reckon we should all pool our money and lob a 15M block on offer at 63 and see how big this sellers cajones REALLY are! :D

That would be $9,450,000.00c. I have a better idea. Lets start up a funds management company like Milford, then make a takeover offer and see what a2 is really worth.

[NT001]

Well I hope you are right NT. when do you expect that to happen? If you are in your 90's that may be quite soon!

No Harrie, not quite in my 90s yet, sorry if I sound like it.

Don't forget, ATM was damn close to $1 not long ago. I'd be really interested to know who's been forcing the price down and why. Not sure what would be achieved by Moosie's scheme to plunk a 15M order into the market, but I am tempted to buy another block at these prices.

[see weed]

No Harrie, not quite in my 90s yet, sorry if I sound like it.

Don't forget, ATM was damn close to $1 not long ago. I'd be really interested to know who's been forcing the price down and why. Not sure what would be achieved by Moosie's scheme to plunk a 15M order into the market, but I am tempted to buy another block at these prices.

Bought another little block today. But that seller keeps on selling. Hopefully it won't go below 62c. One good thing is the big 1,000,000+ buyer/seller appears to be doing it off market.

[iceman]

I think that ATM's marketing in the UK to 20% of the milk intolerant is a good one to work on. It may be possible that a significant % of those may not be lactose intolerant, just intolerant to A1.

Harrie, can you (or anyone else) tell me how or if it is possible for people to test if they are lactose intolerant or only intolerant to A1 ? My 4 months old grandson has just been diagnosed as "intolerant to dairy products" but I intend to get more detail and info on it.

[see weed]

Harrie, can you (or anyone else) tell me how or if it is possible for people to test if they are lactose intolerant or only intolerant to A1 ? My 4 months old grandson has just been diagnosed as "intolerant to dairy products" but I intend to get more detail and info on it.
I read somewhere that womans breast milk is naturally a2. It might be wise to see a doctor before feeding a 4 months old baby a2 cows milk.

[see weed]

I read somewhere that womans breast milk is naturally a2. It might be wise to see a doctor before feeding a 4 months old baby a2 cows milk.

You could also search www.aboutthea2milkcompany.com (http://www.aboutthea2milkcompany.com)

[iceman]

It might be wise to see a doctor before feeding a 4 months old baby a2 cows milk.

I did not suggest that was being considered !!!

[NT001]

Far be it from me to offer medical advice, but there is A2 formula available, and also goat's milk formula in the supermarkets which is A2. Possibly no harm in giving them a gentle try.

Yes, human breast milk is naturally pure A2, same as all other milk in the animal kingdom except that from some European breeds of cow which were affected by a genetic mutation several thousand years ago. However, recent clinical research has found traces of A1 in the breast milk of mothers who drank A1 milk, and without wishing to scare you, this is being linked with an increased SIDS risk and slow psychomotor development. Your medical advisers may well be unaware of this as it's very new, but you can see more about it, clearly explained in layman's terms, in this article on Prof Woodford's blog which actually advises that lactating mothers should drink A2 milk:

https://keithwoodford.wordpress.com/2011/04/10/bcm7-and-sudden-infant-death-syndrome/

[MAC]

This is a trick I learned from another thread, thanks Santiago for that;

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=a2%20milk&date=1%2F2009%2070m&cmpt=q

Nice to see a steady, albeit lumpy, increasing awareness and attention to A2 milk.

Interestingly, Dani Minogue seems to have created that spike in February 2013 when she said what she said on ITV, hmmmm, perhaps ATM should have kept her on board after all.

But, take a look at the spike following Lion’s efforts to mislead and the effect of the Curtin study results.

Debate ---> Awareness ---> Sales

regards, Mac

[see weed]

Did anyone read the write up in the Sunday Star times bussiness section today about a1 and a2 milk? Good exposure.

[nextbigthing]

Got an online link See Weed?

[see weed]

Got an online link See Weed?

No, I read it in todays S S Times by Keith Woodford

[NT001]

Did anyone read the write up in the Sunday Star times bussiness section today about a1 and a2 milk? Good exposure.

It's the final article in a three-part series by Woodford in the SST, and will probably be available on his blogsite tomorrow or the next day at:

http://keithwoodford.wordpress.com/feed/

The first two articles, which are already on his site, described the new clinical research that is confirming the risk factor in A1 milk, and the commercial danger this poses the NZ dairy industry. This third article in today's SST discusses why the NZ industry has failed to switch to A2 - largely due to industry politics and Fonterra's scaredness to admit there is anything wrong with the A1 milk it has been selling all these years.

Today's article has some interesting info about ATM's patents on testing cows for A1/A2. The patents don't actually apply in NZ and will start to run out in overseas countries from 2016. This helps explain the urgency of getting A2 milk on the market quickly in the UK and US.

It's a good series that in many ways sums up where the whole A1/A2 issue is at. Essential for every ATM shareholder, regardless of whether or not they already have Woodford's book.

[Harrie]

Im wondering if, with the patents running out in 2016, how much of that is factored into the current price?

[MAC]

Im wondering if, with the patents running out in 2016, how much of that is factored into the current price?

Have you checked which of the multitude of patents are actually running out in 2016 Harrie ?

[Harrie]

No I have not but then most of the "sellers" may not have either MAC. In other words its just the perception (like mine) that could be holding back new investors.

[NT001]

I would doubt whether investors are aware of all this, Harrie. I've been following A2 for years but am not familiar with the IP details (though I probably should be). Anyway, in addition to the tail-hair test to verify whether a cow is pure A2 or not, on which A2MC gets a fee (offshore), there's also quite a lot of trademarking around whether you can market your milk as A2 even if you know it is. There may of course be ways around this like saying it is "A1-free" - not sure how tight the restrictions are pr whenthey run out.

[nextbigthing]

I would doubt whether investors are aware of all this, Harrie. I've been following A2 for years but am not familiar with the IP details (though I probably should be). Anyway, in addition to the tail-hair test to verify whether a cow is pure A2 or not, on which A2MC gets a fee (offshore), there's also quite a lot of trademarking around whether you can market your milk as A2 even if you know it is. There may of course be ways around this like saying it is "A1-free" - not sure how tight the restrictions are pr whenthey run out.

This is why I was asking the question the other day seeing if anyone had done the sums to see if ATM could make it as a 'standard milk producer', meaning if the whole a2 premium thing 'comes to an end' via clever marketing etc, are ATM big enough (or when will they be) to just compete as a me too company (worst case - unlikely I know but not my point).

Cheers,

NBT

[Harrie]

Well that is the issue NT. Nobody really knows or understands how relevant the IP and patents are to ATM's value proposition both until 2016 and thereafter.
All any investor reads about is that offshore patents run out in 2016. There is no qualification to that statement, so I for one have no idea how that will affect ATM's future prospects and therefore future SP. MAC seems to think that it is not an issue because of the multi level patents which exist, but I wonder if the market is aware of all that.
Based on the headline that patents expire in 2016, I'm just putting it out there that with that doubt, maybe new money is staying out?

[NT001]

No, Woodford did not say offshore patents run out in 2016. What he said was (and I'm sure he won't mind this being reproduced here, so that we are getting our facts right, bearing in mind that he is talking ):

"Most countries are currently constrained by patents held by the A2 Milk Company which are perceived as controlling the right to select herds free of A1 beta-casein. These patents, which are not effective in New Zealand, run out in most other countries starting in 2016. So we [i.e. the NZ dairy industry] have less than two years to build our lead. Thereafter, other countries, and particularly the USA with its mega-sized herds and the use of sex-selected semen, can quickly catch up.

"From a purely business perspective, the other key issue is the role of the NZX-listed A2 Milk Company. To date they have used their patents to good effect outside New Zealand to keep others at bay. They have made spectacular progress in Australia, but have yet to transfer this success on to the world stage."

[NT001]

Some details about ATM's IP suite including patent expiry dates were given in its 2012 strategic plan, pages 15-17.

http://thea2milkcompany.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Strategic-Plan-2012.pdf

NB the annotation shown in very small type, that the expiry dates shown are the first that apply anywhere, and do not apply to all markets.

Actually there's a lot more in that strategic plan that's worth re-reading, including the section that makes clear the Australian model will be adopted in other markets - in other words, no more mucking around.

[MAC]

It’s all a bit hard I think for we non biotechnician patent lawyers to get a happy one line summary out of a zillion overlapping quite complex patents. ATM had Simpson Grierson review the patent suite and they provided a positive review.

Perhaps though Harrie, if it is a concern for you, you may wish to ask at the AGM in November if there are any commercial implications, that might provide you and perhaps the general media also with a better public statement than just ‘the first one expires in 2016’.

NBT, do consider that the a2 milk company operate within the premium milk market, the products are value added irrespective of patents, similar to soy milk or lactose free milk.

[fiasco]

Interesting observations, and great work on supplying it to him Snapiti.

From a research perspective two findings can be drawn - A) Not drinking milk for 8 years has allowed his immune system to mature and retract against such consequences he previously encountered or B) A2 works!!!!

I'm in Wellington for work and I have struggled to find A2 in the CBD, anyone know where I can find some?

[NT001]

Unfortunately Countdown doesn't have outlets in the CBD. Possibly the closest is in Newtown, at 3 John Street. It's on the main road leading to the public hospital, just before the hospital.

[Tsuba]

I'm in Queenstown and have never seen it. Is it only north of the Bombay Hills ? JAFA land.

[MAC]

I'm in Queenstown and have never seen it. Is it only north of the Bombay Hills ? JAFA land.

No countdowns in tourist town, that big new world in Frankton won't have A2.

[Tsuba]

No countdowns in tourist town, that big new world in Frankton won't have A2.

No they don't and the staff havn't heard of it.

[evander]

Dunedin Countdown stocks it, an extra row of 2L bottles has appeared in the last two weeks.

[Tsuba]

Dunedin Countdown stocks it, an extra row of 2L bottles has appeared in the last two weeks.

I like Dunners. A real city. :)

[NT001]

Hundreds if not thousands of consumers in Australia have had the same experience as Snapiti's friend. That's why the word has got around despite Dairy Australia and some nutritionists still saying A1 and A2 are the same so there can't be any difference and it's all an illusion.

As regards Queenstown, we couldn't find it there. I don't think there's a Countdown there, but there is a Fresh Choice supermarket which seems to be owned by the same company. They didn't have it when we were there but sounded interested in ordering it. It comes from Northland - long way to the deep south.

[Tsuba]

I know the owner of Fresh Choice. May have a word in his ear. ;)

[bonne vie]

Snapiti - how good friend is he? Would be great if he took the experiment further and now drank the same amount of A1 milk (or lesser if reactions begin again).Maybe coerce him with some good stock suggestions.

As an aside, went to buy A2 at one Countdown store in Napier last week and there were only three bottles left all expiring the next day.Asked if they had any out the back- no not until deliveries the next day. Walked over the road to the Countdown Store (used to be woolworths I think) and they had plenty all with expiries 2 weeks plus - assume they had just had their deliveries.

Hope A2 yogurt is in the horizon.

[Deleted]

he is a really good friend..... but the other day he did accidentally leave a fish in my boat that was not found for a week so perhaps I will make him a really milky latte and accidentally put normal milk in it and tell him it is A2...... and wait to see any reaction.

yup, a controlled experiment

[bonne vie]

he is a really good friend..... but the other day he did accidentally leave a fish in my boat that was not found for a week so perhaps I will make him a really milky latte and accidentally put normal milk in it and tell him it is A2...... and wait to see any reaction.

Did that years ago at my work place in Auckland - left scallops on the kitchen bench over a weekend - NOT good. Definitely worth a follow up with A1 milk - all care no responsibility for outcome.

[Sideshow Bob]

In terms of the patent discussion, there is just as an important IP in terms of their trademark of the A2 name.

Even they some of the patents expire, surely competition can't use the term A2? Then any competitor would have to then rename a fledgling product, and re-educate consumers. Of course ATM are only in a few countries and can't chew and swallow the world in one bite.

[nextbigthing]

NBT, do consider that the a2 milk company operate within the premium milk market, the products are value added irrespective of patents, similar to soy milk or lactose free milk.

Absolutely MAC. At the moment they're protected there by IP etc. I just like to consider a few possible scenarios and see what the company would be valued at then. In this case I'm wondering what would happen if thanks to some clever marketing from cashed up rivals and the expiry of a few key bits of IP, their competitive advantage was eroded and they were then in a situation where others could sell and market 'a2 only milk' too and the premium'was lost, so A2MC just became another 'me too' company. I'm not saying this is going to happen and if it does they have at least a three year head start. But if it did, how big do they have to get before they can compete. It's kind of like a worst case scenario situation, if this were to occur and they had to bring prices down closer to 'normal milk', how big would they need to get and how much could they still make. Figure this out and you know the worst case price to pay (which might equate to say 80c a share) meaning if you buy in at say 65c you're guaranteed to print cash even in the worst case. Then you can put the farm on it and still sleep easy.

Hope that makes sense.

[MAC]

Fair enough, a good investor must consider the consequence of risks. One must also consider the likelihood of risks, and as importantly also mitigations, both in place or ongoing.

As I understand, it would take the expiry of multiple overlapping patents within the supply chain for your scenario to play out, and a2MC are continually enhancing the patent suite.

No one it seems on the thread is a patent lawyer, including you or I, and no one has raised any specific issue with the IP or patent adequacy aside from some general media sound bites. The company lawyers have reviewed and I don't think we are in a position to do better.

Judging from the interest on the thread though, it does seem to be a good question to raise at the AGM for some confidence and guidance from management.

From the 2012 strategic review;

A2C’s Intellectual Property (“IP”) includes patents, trade marks and trade names (“brands”), proprietary processes and know-how that is codified in the A2 System©

• The IP has been subjected to an independent legal review which concluded that the portfolio is strong and well balanced to deliver commercial value in both the short and long term:

“A2C’s intellectual property is balanced across a variety of rights, with strength throughout the supply chain. Chain of title and rights are well documented, allowing a solid basis for exploitation and enforcement” Simpson Grierson

• The strength of A2C’s intellectual capital will increasingly be driven by brand and know-how, in addition to patents

• A2C has rights to seven families of patents and patent applications in various combinations

• Ongoing R&D is continuing to enhance the scope and duration of existing patent rights

[nextbigthing]

Cheers MAC,

I guess the simple/ very crude way to answer my own question is to just take the predicted profit in the future for the likely outcome (great success:t_up: ) and discount it by the same percentage as a bottle of 'normal' milk is discounted to A2 currently. This would then simulate a worst case, still operating scenario.

Like I say, if they're going to print money worst case then buying up large now is a no brainer.

[Harrie]

Cheers MAC,

I guess the simple/ very crude way to answer my own question is to just take the predicted profit in the future for the likely outcome (great success:t_up: ) and discount it by the same percentage as a bottle of 'normal' milk is discounted to A2 currently. This would then simulate a worst case, still operating scenario.

Like I say, if they're going to print money worst case then buying up large now is a no brainer.

I think NBT is simply raising a concern about IP and patents which we are all grappling with, and that is to protect our downside risk.

I don't think that raising it at the AGM is going to give us any more info than the company line which MAC has clearly outlined above and that mainly is that Simpson Grierson has reviewed all the IP and had it independently checked. It is strong, balanced and has both short and long term commercial value.... but then they would say that wouldn't they?

When you look at the brand and knowhow, the seven families of patents and their on going enhancements, and the length of time A2 still has with a number of these, its pretty hard to see that ATM could ever have other than growing revenues both from the supply side and IP side, in fact if the science becomes compelling enough a takeover would be more likely rather than other producers needing to get around all the legalities and challenges that would be required to get their A2 product onto the market.

I'm wondering though, why ATM does not just go to the market, raise some cash and get right into it, rather than just growing organically. This maybe is where the ASX listing murmurings are coming from? but maybe there is a supply limitation?

[Ginger_steps_]

Ive been catching a few a2 tv ads here and there, in aussie recently. a2 are slowly hammering in the difference between a1 "normal cows milk", and full a2 cows milk - with digrams in cow format! Im never watching near prime times however, so cant comment as to how extensive the ads are. The main point is that im seing them and notice increased exposure, market eductation as well as great replies to cheapshot marketing!

Also, im continuosly having to ask coles staff for a 2 ltr bottle from out back - because they sell out, more regularly than the milk shelves are restocked. Happy to be a holder and watch them chip away in the background.

[NT001]

The article by Prof Keith Woodford in the Sunday Star Tijmes two days ago (the third in a weekly series of three on A1 and A2) can now be viewed on his blogsite at:

http://keithwoodford.wordpress.com/2014/09/08/the-industry-politics-of-a1-and-a2-milk/

Like I said, these three articles are all essential reading for ATM shareholders to understand the current situation and to get some insights into the future - upside and downside.

[NT001]

And here's more great publicity - in a major British trade newspaper, The Grocer.

http://www.thegrocer.co.uk/buying-and-supplying/a2-milk-protein-could-benefit-the-dairy-intolerant-claims-study/371344.article

Great to see A2MC is using an academic from the Curtin University clinical trial in Western Australia to push the message in Britain. If grocery and supermarket managers get the message that they can possibly help solve consumers' intolerance problems, that's a huge credibility boost. I wish Countdown and Fresha would push that message here in NZ. Maybe Fresha's not yet capable of meeting increased demand - that could be an issue to raise at the ASM. Can we hire Snapiti's friend to do publicity for the company?

[NT001]

Earlier I speculated that maybe Fresha Valley is unable to supply Countdown and other outlets with enough A2 milk to meet demand. That’s NOT TRUE.

Being a strong believer that getting the facts can often be quite useful, I just picked up the old telephone and had a very interesting and constructive chat with the owner-manager of Fresha Valley, which is the sole NZ supplier of A2 Milk.

Several things emerged.

They supply basically every Countdown store in NZ, plus a few New World stores (Porirua is one) and other outlets including health food stores.

They have plenty of A2 milk available, tonnes more than they have orders for, and won’t refuse any supermarket that asks for it. If any supermarket is running short it’s because they aren’t ordering enough, and we should tell them that Fresha says so.

They’re located in Waipu, in Northland, but they deliver to outlets in the whole of the South Island the day after processing.

They’re quite a big outfit, one of the only non-Fonterra firms in the country with their own big processing plant for domestic supply. A2 milk is just a small part of their total operation and they have quite a chunk of the Auckland market for standard milk.

They have a contract A2 herd which supplies them, and surprisingly the entire herd is Friesian, but of course every cow has been tested as A2-A2.

They are well aware of what the science says about A1/A2 and what’s going on in Australia and England, and would like to promote A2 milk here for its health attributes. But whenever they do they get heavied by big lawyers (he won’t say who for, but one could guess) and they can’t afford the time or expense to get involved in bigtime litigation. So they leave it to Keith Woodford to make the case for A2 in NZ.

Also they have to maintain good relations with Fonterra because they live and do business in the same world as Fonterra and there’s quite a bit of milk trading between them although Fresha is independent.

Hope that’s helpful.

[iceman]

Thanks for sharing this NT001. Very interesting !

[ziggy415]

Earlier I speculated that maybe Fresha Valley is unable to supply Countdown and other outlets with enough A2 milk to meet demand. That’s NOT TRUE.

Being a strong believer that getting the facts can often be quite useful, I just picked up the old telephone and had a very interesting and constructive chat with the owner-manager of Fresha Valley, which is the sole NZ supplier of A2 Milk.

Several things emerged.

They supply basically every Countdown store in NZ, plus a few New World stores (Porirua is one) and other outlets including health food stores.

They have plenty of A2 milk available, tonnes more than they have orders for, and won’t refuse any supermarket that asks for it. If any supermarket is running short it’s because they aren’t ordering enough, and we should tell them that Fresha says so.

They’re located in Waipu, in Northland, but they deliver to outlets in the whole of the South Island the day after processing.

They’re quite a big outfit, one of the only non-Fonterra firms in the country with their own big processing plant for domestic supply. A2 milk is just a small part of their total operation and they have quite a chunk of the Auckland market for standard milk.

They have a contract A2 herd which supplies them, and surprisingly the entire herd is Friesian, but of course every cow has been tested as A2-A2.

They are well aware of what the science says about A1/A2 and what’s going on in Australia and England, and would like to promote A2 milk here for its health attributes. But whenever they do they get heavied by big lawyers (he won’t say who for, but one could guess) and they can’t afford the time or expense to get involved in bigtime litigation. So they leave it to Keith Woodford to make the case for A2 in NZ.

Also they have to maintain good relations with Fonterra because they live and do business in the same world as Fonterra and there’s quite a bit of milk trading between them although Fresha is independent.

Hope that’s helpful.
amazing...all that from a phone call...real interesting

[Harrie]

Thanks NT, that is highly revealing. Vested interest on multiple levels. So we know its not a supply problem in NZ.

[see weed]

Thanks NT for that info. What I have done is printed out some a2 info and give a copy to people I see buying milk at the supermarket. I make sure I have a few copies on hand wherever I go, to promote it. Sometimes petrol stations ask if you want a coffee with your purchase, and I say has it got a2 milk in it, if not I will give them an a2 info copy. So if all us shareholders did the same, it would not take too long before word got around about the benifits of a2, plus mention Keith Woodford and his Devil in the Milk book. Any other ideas of promoting a2 is welcome, please let us know.

[NT001]

Thanks SW, I think every little bit of pushing the message can be useful. But I'm rather thinking of whether we can come up with something that reaches a broader public in a slightly more professional way. I have some PR and journalistic background and in principle it's not too difficult although there is a financial cost, plus the need to avoid antagonising mainstream dairy. I rather think it might be an idea to contact A2MC, which I'm happy to do - we don't want to do anything in an organised way that actually cuts across the company's own strategy. From what I see happening in Oz, it seems that A2MC is ready to be bolder than in the past because it has a basis for making clinical claims, which it has never had until now. And with Woodford's articles plus some of the stuff from Oz there's really no shortage of material to work with. It would be really good, though, if we could get real-life NZ stories about "how A2 changed my life", like those that have been appearing in Australian media and like the story of Snapiti's friend.

I think it would probably be very difficult to get any of the supermarkets to make material available to customers - they would immediately come under mainstream dairy pressure. So the big question is how to reach consumers, knowing also that the mainstream NZ media are fairly reluctant to run stories that (they think) might displease Fonterra. Real-life examples are a great starting point. Any thoughts and suggestions would be welcomed.

[Carpenterjoe]

I was at a clients house yesterday, they live in the Northern parts of Sydney, opened the fridge for a cuppa and here's the A2 bottle looking out at me.
One suburb up I have another Client who only drinks a2, had along conversation about it, she won't go back to ordinary milk.
Thought holders might appreciate this,

[Balance]

http://www.theage.com.au/business/retail/leading-nutritionist-questions-a2-milks-health-claims-20140909-10cxhb.html

Something to be aware of.

[see weed]

http://www.theage.com.au/business/retail/leading-nutritionist-questions-a2-milks-health-claims-20140909-10cxhb.html

Something to be aware of.

Fair comment. Two Countdown stores I went to yesterday had sold out, so I bought Soy milk to go on with. Did notice fresha valley had about 8 rows of the a1 version , and the blue label looks just the same but without a2 on it. Nearly bought the a1 brand by mistake, also noticed they were selling the 2litre bottles for $2.

[ziggy415]

Good reality check. From all I have read in my view it is quite possible the health claims being made about a2 will turn out not to stand up to detailed study.

Ive been on A2 for just over a month and i dont see me going back to normal milk....all the claims by A2 fit me exeactly...indeed some of the so called benefits I thought were normal occurances in my body and they have dissappeared.....told a familly member about A2 yesterday because of some symptoms she been haveing so will see if it helps her....I really do think there is something in A2 for certain people

[see weed]

Sure... and there are other people who have reported similar things. These are anecdotal claims and not evidence sufficient to support a claimed health benefit. For that purpose properly conducted, large scale and repeatable studies are required.

Fully agree, but in the mean time lets all keep drinking a2 , tastes good and my phoo is good:D

[MAC]

And, may the debate go on for years and years and years;

"There isn't anything that's on the website that isn't in the public domain," said Mr Nathan, adding that the company was "definitely not making a health claim".

"We are simply saying that this is a milk which many people have reported enables them to enjoy the benefit of dairy without the discomfort."

Debate --> Awareness --> Sales

[Tsuba]

I actually think that anything a pen pushing nutritionist accademic says is irrelevant in the big picture. People buy the stuff for various reasons. Perceived,real or otherwise health benefits. Because their friends recommend or just because they like it. All the nutritionists and studies in the world agree Coke is bad for you but that does not stop millions of people drinking it.

[NT001]

Two points:

A2 milk is being sold in a consumer marketplace, and consumers who find they actually benefit from it aren't going to care what some nutritionist (or Dairy Australia) says. If they're at all interested in the technical background, the thing that will ultimately be highly influential and easily understood is that all human mothers produce pure A2 milk for their young. Therefore A2 = good. And what's more, so do all other members of the animal kingdom including all the world's cows except for some from Europe that carry a genetic mutation and now produce A1. So, A1 is a mutation, A2 is the natural original. You choose.

Secondly, a degree of skepticism is obviously justified when assessing a dispute between opposing commercial interests, at least until the scientists speak. Someone on this thread said it is quite possible the health claims being made about a2 will turn out not to stand up to detailed study. There has already been tonnes of detailed study, and the science on A1/A2 is now overwhelming. Read Woodford. There have been hundreds of scientific studies, mostly by teams far removed from the commercial and consumer battle over A1/A2. They ALL conclude that A1 has, or appears to have, medical health risks, including links with autism and SIDS. None come to a contrary conclusion. Doesn't that say something? If there were disputing scientific results, one could reasonably withhold judgment, but there aren't. It's all very well to say more research is needed - of course it is. But when the defenders of A1 milk (i.e. big dairy) can't come out with a single piece of clinical research of their own to back their view you seriously have to wonder why. Why do they have to rely on a nutritionist (scientific qualifications? research background?) who just tells a newspaper she thinks the Curtin research is "odd" and needs verification by a larger sample (which is coming, by the way)? It's already game over, but there's a lot more to come.

[Harrie]

Well put NT. I sense your passion on this topic.
I have seen plenty of anecdotal evidence in favour of A2, none in favour of A1 extoling its virtues with respect to health benefits.
The fact that mothers milk is A2 has to be a pretty powerful indicator. why risk a mutation element. Common sense really.

[Harrie]

Its not actually the science that is increasing the sales of A2 BK so whatever Rosemary Stanton says is just a regurgitation of the fact that not enough study on humans have made a positive correlation between the health risks and A1 conclusively which is why A2 is legally unable to make those sorts of claims. Everybody knows that, but A2 sales are not increasing because of scientific claims, and the scientific claims are not causing A2 milk to maintain its price in the face of the lowering cost of milk globally. Go figure!

[nextbigthing]

I wonder how independent she is given the recent PR campaigns

[NT001]

These are exactly the kind of claims that Rosemary Stanton refers to in her interview as "irresponsible". Note that a2 corporation specifically disavow such claims.

Not quite sure of the point you're trying to make, BK.

The statements Rosemary Stanton said were "irresponsible" were the "health claims from fast-growing dairy company a2 Milk". So I don't see how you can say a2MC is "specifically disavowing" its own claims. In fact I'm not sure what claims you think a2MC is "disavowing" at all. It has oftenmade clear that it doesn't necessarily stand by all the anecdotal claims made by users - is that what you mean? I'm not aware that it's disavowing the results of the many independent scientific studies I referred to.

The company also runs an auxiliary website <http://www.betacasein.org> which is intended for medical and scientific readers rather than general consumers and investors, where it actually lists many of the research papers I referred to. In putting them out in the scientific forum for study and analysis, it does make clear it isn't actually endorsing the contents of those papers, as one would expect, but neither does it reject them.

[BFG]

The squawking and squealing between the two parties is reaching a feverish pitch only heard by our colycanthian mates in the sea.

You can tune a piano, but you can't tuna fish.

[Sideshow Bob]

http://www.theage.com.au/business/retail/leading-nutritionist-questions-a2-milks-health-claims-20140909-10cxhb.html

Something to be aware of.

The interesting part is going to the end of the article where there is a poll, asking 'Do a2's claims stack up?'

Out of 2030 respondents, 75% said no. Although hardly scientific at the end of a negative a2 article.

[ziggy415]

The interesting part is going to the end of the article where there is a poll, asking 'Do a2's claims stack up?'

Out of 2030 respondents, 75% said no. Although hardly scientific at the end of a negative a2 article.
I voted yes and it subtracted one off the total....go figure

[ziggy415]

I voted yes and it subtracted one off the total....go figure
used another computor and my yes vote dropped 29 votes off the total but no change in either percentage...

[nextbigthing]

The squawking and squealing between the two parties is reaching a feverish pitch only heard by our colycanthian mates in the sea.

You can tune a piano, but you can't tuna fish.

Looks like Surfer Steve is back

[Ginger_steps_]

I voted yes and it subtracted one off the total....go figure The total votes number didn't change when I voted... RIGGED!

[NT001]

This little line in the poll following nutritionist Rosemary Stanton's comments says a lot:

Disclaimer: These polls are not scientific and reflect the opinion only of visitors who have chosen to participate.

And of course, what percentage of those who voted would even know what A2's claims are? Such polls are plain silly.

Plus, if 75% said they didn't believe A2's claims, presumably the other 25% did, and 25% isn't a bad market share.

[see weed]

Drinking a2 milk and wearing ear muffs should protect me from low frequency radio waves.:)

[bull....]

slowly breaking down short term target 58c

[airedale]

Or else the bottom is in around 60-62 cents. I am still waiting for the technical signals.

[NT001]

a2 Corp is saying that it does not make health claims about its milk. See comments in the article, consistent with what they have said before, from Mr Nathan Australian CEO. He says they are "definitely not" making health claims about a2 milk. I think a2 is sailing pretty close to the wind with the "associated" website. This whole debate has the feel to me of the health effects from cell tower controversy in the 1990s.

Thanks for clarifying that, BK. The company's website most definitely does advance a health claim in relation to the Curtin results, although as always it is careful in doing so. The headline states that the Curtin trial "shows there is a difference" and then goes on to give details:

http://thea2milkcompany.com/first-human-digestion-trial-on-milk-proteins-shows-there-is-a-difference-2-2/

As regards the comparison between A1/A2 and the old cell tower controversy, there was in fact a huge difference. In the cell-tower debate there were conflicting scientific views and conflicting scientific test results, and people like Telecom were happy to provide experts to be questioned by the media, producing data in open debate with the protesters.

In the case of A2 milk, there is no longer any real scientific conflict, there is just commercial stonewalling and PR campaigning by the mainstream milk industry. Big dairy in Australia and NZ just hasn't been heard from on this subject for several years and apparently has to rely on outsiders like nutritionist Rosemary Stanton. Moreover, she is not producing any alternative research - she's just saying she finds the Curtin research results "odd" and calling for larger-scale research (which is planned). She is also not offering any explanation as to why large numbers of Australian consumers are experiencing tangible benefits from A2 milk and why some Australian autism specialists are reporting positive results from recommending that their patients switch to A2. Some dismiss all this as "anecdotal", but the science is gradually producing explanations (eg the Curtin trial).

As regards the cell-tower analogy, a better one is the controversy that went on for decades about smoking and lung cancer. The tobacco industry, with the support of various governments, found it difficult to dispute the increasing body of research confirming a link, so it just kept arguing year after year that "more proof" was still needed, long after the link was blindingly obvious. That's exactly the line being taken by mainstream dairy and the food safety authorities regarding A2.

As for the suggestion that A2MC's associated science-medical website is "sailing pretty close to the wind", in what way? It is not aimed at generating consumer sales, and is moderated by an appropriately qualified scientist, with all its contents based very firmly on referenced external research. It is a valuable scientific resource, and any attempt to suppress it would hardly go down well with a knowledge-based scientific community.

[nextbigthing]

Relatively large volume has gone through now, this must be significant from a TA point of view? Bigger seller finally done?

[mattwanz]

I can't fathom why anyone would be selling at least until the Chinese formula registration news comes through - that should be any day now right?

[blobbles]

Exactly! Personally buying more now, long may this irrational weakness continue! 100m revenue company with good IP, solid growth and a future becoming brighter by the day, pretty silly to be selling now! Well below many target prices as well. Raging buy for me...

[winner69]

Exactly! Personally buying more now, long may this irrational weakness continue! 100m revenue company with good IP, solid growth and a future becoming brighter by the day, pretty silly to be selling now! Well below many target prices as well. Raging buy for me...

Yep a $100m company

Moosie just rung and asked me to post this

'They must be joking if they think it cheap. $100m revenues worth $400m market cap, no way. Get out while you ahead guys. Thinking of you all, just trying to be helpful'

[klid]

Lol what? I actually don't mind that he's gone as posts are controversial (which is OK), but they're NEVER backed up with anything.
Anyway just wanetd to say that this stock was my 5th pick for the competition, and now it's grabbing my attention a whole lot more.

[see weed]

Yep a $100m company

Moosie just rung and asked me to post this

'They must be joking if they think it cheap. $100m revenues worth $400m market cap, no way. Get out while you ahead guys. Thinking of you all, just trying to be helpful'

Why would moosie say this today and not 3 or 4 days ago or 3 or 4 weeks ago or 3 or 4 months ago when sp was lot higher? Or did moosie just sell 5,000,000?

[baller18]

Think winner is taking the piss seaweed, as I'm pretty sure they don't know each other off ST lol

[winner69]

Why would moosie say this today and not 3 or 4 days ago or 3 or 4 weeks ago or 3 or 4 months ago when sp was lot higher? Or did moosie just sell 5,000,000?

Moosie made heaps trading on the way up to a buck

Still dabbling on the way done but packed a sad when somebody said tut tut buying in a downtrend

Moosie then became more of an investor ....a couple of times he mentioned this outrageous price:sales ratio and wanted to see real growth before interested.

ATM is now 4 times sales. Moosie said CCL trades at 1.4 times sales. So when ATM sales get to $285m it might be worth 60 cents. When will that be?

[bull....]

considering they are only just making enough money to cover nz and aus markets goodness knows how they can afford to enter the US with only 15m cash on hand. Any serious attempt would need much more than this maybe it be a sloppy job like the UK.

ipredict should run a lottery on how long before they need to raise cash as they burn thru it entering the US

[winner69]

But I told moosie that Freedom trades at outrageous 5 times sales

That would put ATM on about 75 cents at the moment

Allow for ATM superior growth prospects maybe 110 is a fair target

[NT001]

As a non-TA investor I'll be interested to hear from those who are, but to me the striking thing today has been that with almost 6m shares traded, the SP hardly changed. Someone with plenty of the folding stuff wasn't waiting for it to go down to 58c or whatever. Isn't that significant?

[bull....]

As a non-TA investor I'll be interested to hear from those who are, but to me the striking thing today has been that with almost 6m shares traded, the SP hardly changed. Someone with plenty of the folding stuff wasn't waiting for it to go down to 58c or whatever. Isn't that significant?

No just a battle going on between bulls and bears betwwen 60 - 63 lets see who wins

[blobbles]

Yep a $100m company

Moosie just rung and asked me to post this

'They must be joking if they think it cheap. $100m revenues worth $400m market cap, no way. Get out while you ahead guys. Thinking of you all, just trying to be helpful'

Ha haaaa, says the guy who is on the PEB thread saying that they will blast past $1.10. Based on what winner? Their 175 tests? Well done.

ATM is at least proven, you must be in la laa land if you think PEB is worth similar in terms of capital value considering the risks in front of them.

[MAC]

The answer is both simple and clear to those whom research;

ATM are already a cash cow, one must consider that the relative gross margins ATM have at 35%, compared with SML at around 12% and FSF at around 15%.

These very high margins arise from the 50% price point premium that a2 products demand across the counter.

ATM take all those cash cow revenues and reinvest them into growth on an earnings sacrifice for growth basis. NPAT has been optimised as close to zero as they could have managed over the last two years as they financed the UK expansion, China market entry, expansion in Australia and the new product launches in Australia.

At interim reporting, ATM advised that this strategy will continue for another three years whilst they capitalise the US market entry, also from those same cash cow gross margins.

But, that truly enormous amount of international re-investment will return an abundance of future forward free cashflows, and a DCF of those forward cashflows is what determines the present value of ATM and not present day NPAT or short term fluctuation in exchange rate.

My DCF provides me with $1.10 FY15, DYOR

ATM is one of the top 12 to 18 month NZX investments right now on a risk/reward basis.

DISC: BUY

[see weed]

Another 2 converts tonight at Pak n Save. Gave them my a2 flyer and away they went saying , must try this a2 milk. 99% of people I have talked to have never heard of it. Two Countdowns in my area have been out of stock for three days, might have to go further a field. I am going to phone a2 milk company to see if they will put out a 1litre bottle for the older customers,

[zigzag]

Another 2 converts tonight at Pak n Save. Gave them my a2 flyer and away they went saying , must try this a2 milk. 99% of people I have talked to have never heard of it. Two Countdowns in my area have been out of stock for three days, might have to go further a field. I am going to phone a2 milk company to see if they will put out a 1litre bottle for the older customers,

Same problem at Grey Lynn Countdown. There's been no stock since last week. I asked when they were getting some more, and was told they'd ordered so many cartons, but were still waiting. Last year this store had one row of a2, early this year there was two rows, and recently there was three rows of a2 milk, and now there is nothing, none, zero, nada. Since I make a special trip to go to Countdown, it is starting to get annoying. At least I haven't been followed around by a pile of kelp, waving a2 flyers at me.

[NT001]

SW, did you talk to the countdowns about why they are out of stock? I really wonder sometimes if they are under pressure from the mainstream industry to make it hard to get.

Re the one-litre bottles of A2, I would suggest you phone Fresha Valley. They are the ones who process and distribute A2, and their website indicates that it's available in 1L bottles. It may be just an issue of whether any of the supermarkets want to bother with smaller bottles just for a few oldies.

http://www.freshavalley.co.nz/fresh_a2_milk.php

[winner69]

Stupid question so no treating me with disdain. You may even convert me.

All this milk you guys buying at Countdown

How much of each sale ends up in ATM's coffers?

[see weed]

Stupid question so no treating me with disdain. You may even convert me.

All this milk you guys buying at Countdown

How much of each sale ends up in ATM's coffers?

Good question, you will have to phone Fresha Valley for that answer. The number is on their web site. Have phoned them before and they are very helpful to talk to. I will be handing out the odd flyer today at the Auckland Home show, all for the good cause.

[see weed]

SW, did you talk to the countdowns about why they are out of stock? I really wonder sometimes if they are under pressure from the mainstream industry to make it hard to get.

Re the one-litre bottles of A2, I would suggest you phone Fresha Valley. They are the ones who process and distribute A2, and their website indicates that it's available in 1L bottles. It may be just an issue of whether any of the supermarkets want to bother with smaller bottles just for a few oldies.

http://www.freshavalley.co.nz/fresh_a2_milk.php

Just phoned Countdown Mt.Wellington. They said they just got it in yesterday. Onehunga said they think it is in the freezer, but we have fresha valley a1 for $1 a litre. I said no a2 is all I drink.

[see weed]

Same problem at Grey Lynn Countdown. There's been no stock since last week. I asked when they were getting some more, and was told they'd ordered so many cartons, but were still waiting. Last year this store had one row of a2, early this year there was two rows, and recently there was three rows of a2 milk, and now there is nothing, none, zero, nada. Since I make a special trip to go to Countdown, it is starting to get annoying. At least I haven't been followed around by a pile of kelp, waving a2 flyers at me.

You should phone first to save a wasted trip...sea weed / see weed I am both.

[winner69]

More and more like the bliss thread every day!

I didn't want to say that but glad you have!

Hope A2 doesn't meet the same fate as the icecream

[Leftfield]

More and more like the bliss thread every day!


Let's hope the ATM SP doesn't sink to BLT levels too! :mellow:

[NT001]

More and more like the bliss thread every day!

Yes, except that for A2MC there's a big difference between Oz and NZ. No such problems over there. One can sense the underlying power of Fonterra is very strong here, and A2MC is reliant on Fresha Valley to do the job. We already know the potential constraints FV is operating under. A2MC signed away its commercial rights in NZ ages ago, big mistake, back in the days when its strategy was to licence-out the IP and not retain any control over production and marketing. There's been a big change of strategy in recent years and the Australian model is the one that's paying off. Anyway, NZ will always be a relatively small market, so it's not the end of the world. I may be wrong, but I have a feeling that anything we do to promote sales in NZ is likely to help FV (and consumers) more than the A2MC SP.

[MAC]

At the end of the day, all those very early joint ventures, Ideasphere, Original Foods and Fresha, were entered into by ATM at a time when a2 was less understood and accepted than it is now and I suspect the agreement terms were also much less favourable than those entered into over the last few years. ATM were in less of a position to demand joint marketing rights, joint product development opportunities and other concessions.

It was suggested last year that ATM may take a more leading role in NZ, but as I understand the Fresha agreement runs through to 2017 I think, happy to be corrected but I recall 2017.

Perhaps we will see some more comprehensive local marketing after that time, for the time being though Fresha will keep doing what they do, not much, and the supermarkets may keep on organically growing a little in sales at least.

Getting Fresha and the supermarkets on the phone won’t change much for the next couple of years.

[ziggy415]

PEB thread has proven them wrong so now the knockers have moved camp

[ziggy415]

LOL.... if you think that posters have proven things, on the PEB thread by making repetitve positive assumptions about the complete unknown then I would have to say you are probably a very poor investor.
But I had noted the PEB thread has been taken over the the PEB bulls or should I say peacocks.
on this thread you drink up or shut up..:D.....constuctive critisisim is much appreciated by this poor investor...i like both sides of the arguement

[Master98]

http://www.thecattlesite.com/news/46502/regular-milk-defended-after-a2-milk-study

DairyUK start attacking A2 milk, bad or good for A2 UK business?

[ziggy415]

http://www.thecattlesite.com/news/46502/regular-milk-defended-after-a2-milk-study

DairyUK start attacking A2 milk, bad or good for A2 UK business?
says to me A1 milk producers are concerned already....any advertising is good advertising

[nextbigthing]

http://www.thecattlesite.com/news/46502/regular-milk-defended-after-a2-milk-study

DairyUK start attacking A2 milk, bad or good for A2 UK business?

Very very good news. Look what has happened in Australia. They have 9% of the market in Oz by value so the big boys started an anti A2 campaign. The fact they have started this in the UK means they are seriously worried about a2s potential.
Great news.

[Master98]

Very very good news. Look what has happened in Australia. They have 9% of the market in Oz by value so the big boys started an anti A2 campaign. The fact they have started this in the UK means they are seriously worried about a2s potential.
Great news.

Maybe too optimistic.

[Harrie]

I reckon that it would not cost much for ATM to advertise and pay for those in the UK who believe that they either dairy intolerant or milk intolerant to be part of a proffessionally controlled study on the effects of A1 and A2 Milk. 500 pounds per person would be cheap advertising over say 200 people or a sample size that is statistically relevant.
Admittedly some probably are dairy or lactose intolerant so A2 will not benefit that group at all, but lets say 80% of the group reported tolerance to A2 and intolerant to A1 which is what snapiti found with his mate.Thats around 16% of the total market in the UK which is the market that ATM is after. Does not need any additional scientific proof, does not need to measure stool consistancy or any other measure. Definitive proof. The next step is to prove other health benefits to the milk tolerant market.

DISC buying more

[ziggy415]

Maybe too optimistic.
elaborate plz Master.....you obviously dont have an intolerance to milk.....im one of those guys that if i can buy a beer for a $1 why the hell pay $2 yet im prepared to pay $5 for milk when i can buy normal milk for $3...for me A2 seems to work...I love custard and icecream but it never really liked me....i,d be keen to try A2 icecream if i could just to seethe results

[see weed]

Very very good news. Look what has happened in Australia. They have 9% of the market in Oz by value so the big boys started an anti A2 campaign. The fact they have started this in the UK means they are seriously worried about a2s potential.
Great news.

I think it might be 10% market now in Aussi. Just got back from Home Show and out of 12 stall holders I talked to, only one had heard of a2 milk, and all of them are going to give it a go, and 40% of them said they were big milk drinkers. So I told them to spread the word and tell all your family and friends. :t_up:

[nextbigthing]

Maybe too optimistic.

Maybe. But would they spend money bagging something that wasn't a serious threat? No way. Therefore they must view it as a serious threat. That is good news. Just my opinion anyway.

[ratkin]

Pleased i sold out last month. Just returned from eight weeks in Cornwall,and despite looking in Asda, Tesco, Sainsburys, Liddle and Aldi didnt see a single a2 product.

[NT001]

http://www.thecattlesite.com/news/46502/regular-milk-defended-after-a2-milk-study

DairyUK start attacking A2 milk, bad or good for A2 UK business?

I wouldn't be too worried about this complaint by DairyUK. It's in response to an article in the Daily Express, a popular paper with huge circulation, which explained the A2 issue rather well, and I doubt if DairyUK's negativity would really have much impact on readers. Here's the Express piece:

http://www.express.co.uk/life-style/diets/505885/New-study-reveals-milk-protein-that-causes-bloating

I'm sure DairyUK is getting a bit jumpy but we'll see how the debate pans out. DairyUK should see A2 as part of its industry, not an enemy of it, and realise that A2 is offering a solution to quite a lot of people who currently can't drink milk and have therefore opted for dairy-free alternatives.

[Tsuba]

Pleased i sold out last month. Just returned from eight weeks in Cornwall,and despite looking in Asda, Tesco, Sainsburys, Liddle and Aldi didnt see a single a2 product.

You did not see but did you enquire about it in the relevent outlets ?

[Harrie]

NT's article appears to suggest that only 5% of those who consider themselves dairy intolerent are in fact actually only lactose intolerent. That relates to a potential consumer base for A2 of around 19% of the UK market!
Surely incentivising those who believe they are dairy intolerent to be part of a simple study analizing the effects of consuming A1 and A2 milk varients would put to bed all the speculation and nay saying or is that too simplistic?

[percy]

That's because its only available in the South East of England (ie. greater London area).

This is dreadful news.
This must mean Devonshire teas in Devon are made from A1 milk?

[winner69]

You did not see but did you enquire about it in the relevent outlets ?

Ever been to Cornwall ..... they talk funny down that way and I don't think A2 Milk would come out very well .....possibility lost in translation with all the arrrrs and de

[ziggy415]

This is dreadful news.
This must mean Devonshire teas in Devon are made from A1 milk?
thats nothing Harrie is gonna analise the effects of A1...must be part of stool research lol :t_up:

[NT001]

NT's article appears to suggest that only 5% of those who consider themselves dairy intolerent are in fact actually only lactose intolerent. That relates to a potential consumer base for A2 of around 19% of the UK market!


Not sure that I actually cited such figures, but I do agree it would be great if ATM ran a clinical trial in UK based on a decent-sized human sample. I'm sure ATM will have thought of this. Woodford has talked of some exciting new trials in the pipeline, and the UK would be an obvious place. The fact that the Curtin professor has been in Britain talking to the media there may possibly point to something. She's obviously very clued up.

Of course it will take more than a trial or two to convince the naysayers, but in the meantime a good chunk of UK consumerdom plus continuing debate there could be a goldmine for ATM. That's all we want.

[Tsuba]

lost in translation

Cool movie. Scarlett Johansson...... :rolleyes:

Boy would she be an asset for the marketing campaign.

[K1W1G0LD]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/dairy/10490000/Nutritionist-sceptical-of-a2-milk-claims

[see weed]

Stupid question so no treating me with disdain. You may even convert me.

All this milk you guys buying at Countdown

How much of each sale ends up in ATM's coffers?

Good question. Today I Emailed Fresha Valley the following...
"Hi Fresha Valley, I have been asked to enquire about the higher price for a2 milk -- if you get paid a higher price for producing your a2 milk compared with your a1 milk? I know I pay double the price for a2 compared to a1 milk at Countdown supermarkets. So I hope you are getting double the price for producing a2. I am making this enquiry for myself as a shareholder, and for other potential a2 milk drinkers. Also I have been asked what your markup is on a2. Regards. (my name)."

[NT001]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/dairy/10490000/Nutritionist-sceptical-of-a2-milk-claims

Yes that article about Rosemary Stanton finding the Curtin results "odd" has had wide coverage via the Fairfax chain. It's all part of the ongoing debate. There are more good clinical trial results in the pipeline which I'm sure she will find harder to just knock with vague general criticism.

She is well-known as a nutritionist who specialises largely in nutritional diet design. Not sure whether she has individual clients, but she says nothing about whether she has ever observed the practical results of clients trying A2 milk.

By contrast, here's the view of another well-known Australian nutritionist who deals at a practical level with clients experiencing health problems including autism (ASD) and ADHD as well as simple "tummy" problems.

"(i)t is my experience that so many of my clients do much better on A2 milk. Benefits noted by parents include: better digestion, regular bowel movements, less brain fog, children are more engaged, less skin rashes and ear infections, no nasal congestion/runny noses/hay fever, better mood and concentration. I often hear that language improves and that the child is happier. Thankfully, in Australia, we have a choice between A1 and A2 milk proteins!
I recommend to my clients that have distressed tummies that they try A2 milk products for 4 weeks and monitor for positive changes."

The full article for those interested is at:

http://www.paulatazzyman.com.au/2013/01/17/a2-milk-and-asd/

The research at Curtin into A1/A2 and digestive discomfort is an important step. But meanwhile the clinical research linking autism with BCM7 (A1 milk), and showing relief from ASD after switching to A2, has been building for over a decade and is getting very strong. Obviously A2MC has to be careful about pushing any claims on this, and no one is claiming that A1/BCM7 is the only trigger for autism, but it is certainly involved. Before long this aspect of the debate will become much more potent and headline-grabbing than mere tummy discomfort.

[winner69]

Good question. Today I Emailed Fresha Valley the following...
"Hi Fresha Valley, I have been asked to enquire about the higher price for a2 milk -- if you get paid a higher price for producing your a2 milk compared with your a1 milk? I know I pay double the price for a2 compared to a1 milk at Countdown supermarkets. So I hope you are getting double the price for producing a2. I am making this enquiry for myself as a shareholder, and for other potential a2 milk drinkers. Also I have been asked what your markup is on a2. Regards. (my name)."

Good one seaweed

I take it that Fresha keep all the profit in selling A2 milk to countdown

My question was how much do ATM get from these sales?

I assume ATM collect a royalty or licence fee or something on the way through.

Anybody know how much ATM finally get on that 2L A2 milk?

[MAC]

Good one seaweed

I take it that Fresha keep all the profit in selling A2 milk to countdown

My question was how much do ATM get from these sales?

I assume ATM collect a royalty or licence fee or something on the way through.

Anybody know how much ATM finally get on that 2L A2 milk?

Bugger all from those very early JV's is the answer, Fresha is the only one left now, expires in 2017 as I understand though.

ATM get a 50% across the counter price point premium in Australia and in the UK now that they have bought out Wiseman and adopted the Australian model.

The NZ market is such small fry, perhaps another reason also that ATM never revisited the Fresha JV is simply that they can make a whole bunch more by exporting A2 as infant formula to China, why pursue tiddly wink product sales locally when it can be value added and exported for a whole lot more.

[winner69]

Bugger all from those very early JV's is the answer, Fresha is the only one left now, expires in 2017 as I understand though.

ATM get a 50% across the counter price point premium in Australia and in the UK now that they have bought out Wiseman and adopted the Australian model.

The NZ market is such small fry, perhaps another reason also that ATM never revisited the Fresha JV is simply that they can make a whole bunch more by exporting A2 as infant formula to China, why pursue tiddly wink product sales locally when it can be value added and exported for a whole lot more.

Thanks MAC

So seaweed and his mates efforts aren't making much dosh for ATM

They need to do an OE and put their energies into promoting A2 in London ....good idea?

[MAC]

It may well all be a good investment for when ATM give Fresha the boot, there was some suggestion at the last AGM by Geoff that the local market may get some attention, but the body language when he said it didn't seem to reinforce commitment to such a cause, kind of a look the other way and a subtle shrug. Next AGM is not far away, lots of opportunity to ask questions, although there weren’t that many asked last year.

[see weed]

Good morning battlers. I see D.W. Mair is at it again. 300,000 @ 60c.

[winner69]

Good morning battlers. I see D.W. Mair is at it again. 300,000 @ 60c.

Yep more nudge nudge wink wink stuff to the fund he has no involvement in running?

Jeez I am so cynical sometimes ...it's just a coincidence

[bull....]

look out below the support breaking down ???

[Master98]

look out below the support breaking down ???
next support 55c or 50c?

[see weed]

next support 55c or 50c?

I'm supporting at 59c today.

[Master98]

I'm supporting at 59c today.

hoping more big buyers come in.

[see weed]

hoping more big buyers come in.

Not really, I just haven't bought any at 59 or 60c before.

[airedale]

This is really off-topic but I have posted on the "Off Topic Page" today's notice from the NZX regarding ATM as an example of the lack of meaningful information in notices from NZX.

[NT001]

This item a week or so back seemed to explain the problem here.

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1409/S00099/forte-funds-share-purchases-prompt-disclosure-notices.htm

[loon]

In the latest "NZ Listener" nutritionist Jennifer Bowden is asked , if Prof. Woodford's view on the benefits of A2 milk is accepted as fact , why is the introduction of milk in schools not questioned. She goes through some of the history re. Boyd Swinburn report etc. She says the research is not accepted as fact and mentioned the 2009 review by the European food safety Authority and from that the NZFSA stating 'no comparable difference in safety". Also mentions Curtin study but says funded by A2 so alludes it is more likely to be favourable. Concludes that milk is a nutritious drink and a free breakfast beats the alternative of empty stomach for some.
So more publicity at least.

[MAC]

ATM and the election ?

Centre right:

Status quo, perhaps a slight continuing downward trend in exchange rates as the USD and AUD strengthen, less overall market uncertainty, overall a more positive investment sentiment, and on balance quite a positive outcome for ATM.

Centre left:

Poorer general market sentiment, but a larger drop off in exchange rates as foreign money flees, overall also positive for ATM.

http://www.interest.co.nz/currencies/71978/roger-j-kerr-explains-why-international-sentiment-has-recently-turned-against-kiwi-

[NT001]

ATM and the election ?

My own view is that the election outcome, and for that matter movements in exchange rates and the global price of milk, will have less impact on ATM's shares over the months ahead than the emerging body of scientific research and the growing public awareness that there is a real issue between A1 and A2.

There will still be those like the nutritionist Jennifer Bowden in the Listener (and her Australian colleague Rosemary Stanton) who cling to Food Safety Authority findings that are now long out of date and have not been amended to take account of new scientific findings which prove them fundamentally wrong. Those commentators have no understanding of where the scientific research is rapidly and inexorably leading. But at least they feed the debate and help make the public aware there is an issue.

Increasingly we'll be starting to see more statements from researchers like Dr Sepely Pal who suggested in London's The Independent that the Curtin study into indigestion is just the first major step and the focus will now move on to A1's links with conditions such as autism, diabetes and heart disease. That'll make people start to think, and applying the cautionary principle.

And A2MC itself is becoming bolder in making what amount clearly to health claims, and pointing to the dangers of A1 rather than just the "benefits" of A2. Chief executive Geoff Babidge is now saying publicly that even a small amount of A1 could have a bad effect on some people. Australia has paved the way. Now watch Britain, net year.

[Harrie]

Good comment NT agree with what you say but in my view the most important determient to seeing some uplift in SP is now mainly centred on ATM's ability to provide evidence of increasing sales volumes in the UK and USA, and increasing volumes of infant formula into China, whether that is through smart marketing, research, anecotal evidence, it does not matter, the market wants to see progress.

[MAC]

I admire your passion for all things a2 NT001, the longevity of debate in itself is even more important than any eventual outcome, long may it continue. Agree that ATM are on the right path in the UK now also, there’s no reason not to see some good traction in the next twelve months now Wiseman are gone and ATM have established full sales control and staff.

China’s the next point of attention though, last year ATM told us that a2 production from the Synlait factory would rise to become 8% of their plant output.

I just wonder though given the recent slow down in Synlait production volumes and ATM’s healthy really quite bullish view on the Chinese market, whether we may see an agreement to raise this beyond 8% now.

As Geoff Babidge says “hopefully” Synlait receive their registration this month.

From the preliminary FY14 report;

“Whilst sales are strong in the Australian domestic market, it is assumed a proportion is being purchased and subsequently shipped to consumers in China relying on the assurance of an Australian-sourced product. Whilst it is not possible to determine sales to this grey market, this further confirms our confidence in the China market opportunity.”

“The Company remains confident both in the infant formula opportunity in China and the processes in place in conjunction with Synlait to achieve continued access to this growing market.”

[Harrie]

MAC I tend to agree with snapiti. Everyone knows that synlait will eventually get entry into the chinese market, so its already discounted into the price. Despite that they are there anyway albeit at lower volumes via another processor.
Really, what we are now wanting to see is increasing volume in all the markets they have made a big investment into from all that hard earned profit made in Australia. We need to see some evidence not a heap of rhetoric from Babidge

[Master98]

Have you ever thought mac that it may make very little difference to ATM how long Synlait take to get registration.
Lets not forget ATM are now supplying China using another processor.
At the moment I really don't think Synlait issue's are effecting ATM at all.

from ATM annual report, ATM will not able to ship A2 baby milk powder to china until SML get registed.currently ATM only have synlait produce their milk powder.

[Harrie]

from ATM annual report, ATM will not able to ship A2 baby milk powder to china until SML get registed.currently ATM only have synlait produce their milk powder.
Ok I may have to stand to be corrected on that Master98, but I understood that they already had the authority to export to China, even though their processing was vis Synlait, maybe they can or are they doing it through another processor?
Despite that i stand by what I said before about getting moving on establishing headway into other markets. The UK is where I would like to see some real progress if the market is meant to be so ripe for it.

[MAC]

Segment revenues at FY14 were;

Australia $106.9M
China $2.7
New Zealand $0.1 (bugger all)
United Kingdom $1.1M

Those $1.1M UK revenues are the first reported, $0M at HY14, although there must have been sundry revenues whilst the Wiseman JV was still in place.

I guess we will just have to wait for HY15.

Must be a few that want a squezzy cow though, I can see a sudden influx of online orders from NZ suddenly arriving from someone called ST.

http://www.ocado.com/webshop/promotion/buy-any-2-a2-milk-add-squeezy-cow-free/74705744

[Master98]

a2 infant firmula produced by Synlait and packed by New Milk.

[mayday]

from ATM annual report, ATM will not able to ship A2 baby milk powder to china until SML get registed.currently ATM only have synlait produce their milk powder.

Bureaucratic slowness in progress but sooner or later it will get approved by my understanding. Let's just be patient folks. Disc: holding

[Master98]

Please correct me if I am wrong but was this quote in the 2013 annual report.
If so this statement has been superseded by actions taken by ATM, in mid 2014, to find an interim producer/packer with Chinese registration whilst awaiting Synlait to achieve chinese registration.

Top marks to management for organizing this.

FYI

A2's sales push for its Platinum brand infant formula in China was thwarted this year by changes to Chinese registration rules. New Zealand New Milk, which has been packing the product for A2, did achieve registration in July but sales of A2's products won't ramp up until its main partner, Synlait Milk, gains registration, which Babidge hopes will be in September."We're very much joined at the hip with Synlait," he said. That relationship "provides more certainty and longevity going forward." A2 has made only two small shipments to China of A2 Platinum, the last in April. Once Synlait gains registration shipments would start in earnest, likely in the first half of the current year.

[winner69]

I see that the fund manager Mr Mair has a shareholding in has bought some more Skellerup shares

Wonder if the fund buys any other shares than ATM air SKL

[zigzag]

Easy to check out Forte Fund Management website. David Mair is a major player as part owner, non-executive director and adviser to Forte. Also easy to invest, as minimum investment is a mere $250,000.

[nextbigthing]

Easy to check out Forte Fund Management website. David Mair is a major player as part owner, non-executive director and adviser to Forte. Also easy to invest, as minimum investment is a mere $250,000.

So Mair is an adviser to Forte and Forte is buying shares in ATM which Mair happens to be a director of.

Join the dots...

[winner69]

So Mair is an adviser to Forte and Forte is buying shares in ATM which Mair happens to be a director of.

Join the dots...

And Skellerup

But in one article he says he has no input into investment decisions and only knows about ATM and SKL purchases when they put the paper in front of him to sign.

What dots to join up?

[NT001]

So Mair is an adviser to Forte and Forte is buying shares in ATM which Mair happens to be a director of. Join the dots...

Better to see him buying than selling, and apparently Forte is a relatively short term investment vehicle, so presumably it sees ATM as having near-term SP improvement.

[MAC]

And Skellerup

But in one article he says he has no input into investment decisions and only knows about ATM and SKL purchases when they put the paper in front of him to sign.

What dots to join up?

Indeed, he wouldn’t probably know the exact timing or determine the degree of investment, but in all probability through his association, his mates at Forte will ask a quite few questions over a beer from time to time, and of course David Mair will always say I can only tell you everything that’s in the public domain already, but if I was you I might consider …………...

[Harrie]

On the other hand MAC it could be just a bit of wistful thinking. There is obviously a lot of investors either not buying the story or highly impatient. Latest 0.59 about half the quantity of buyers as there are sellers, albeit at different prices. Another order in at $0.58

[see weed]

The depth is looking a bit sick today for sellers, and they are making it worse by putting more on at 60c. Good for buyers though. Is this what you call a buyers market? It certainly is'nt for sellers unless you bought at 10 or 20c. But at the end of the day, the sun goes down. Tomorrow is another day we worried about yesterday.:)

[MAC]

I'm honestly not particularly interested in the short term share price Harrie, though a catalyst like a Synlait regulatory announcement will probably see a leap in share price back to at least analyst price targets at over 80c for those looking for one.

I bought the 2012 strategic plan and am content to track progress against the 2016 goals provided within it. ATM is a four year hold at least provided the fundamental proposition remains intact.

In some areas ATM are a smidgen behind, the UK merger between Wiseman and Muller was unpredicted, as perhaps was the Chinese regulatory changes, however both segment revenues though are still around about where one should expect them to be, two years into a four year business start-up plan within those countries.

The UHT and yogurt product development outlined in the 2012 has gone well in Australia and we are seeing UHT roll into China now.

And, there are new opportunities in addition to the 2012 plan that have come along, fresh cream already on sale, maybe fresh milk into China, ice cream, and of course expansion into the US providing probably for a post 2016 continuation of revenue growth.

A focus on the short term will get one nowhere, the optimal point of focus for a long term investor is the FY16 outcome and share price at that time, as that is the point of time referenced by ATM with specific development plans, numerical targets and goals.

[NT001]

I'm honestly not particularly interested in the short term share price. A focus on the short term will get one nowhere, the optimal point of focus for a long term investor is the FY16 outcome and share price at that time, as that is the point of time referenced by ATM with specific development plans, numerical targets and goals.

I like your thinkling MAC. In fact I'd go much further. My timeline is actually 10-15 years. I perceive that most on this thread are looking at A2 milk as a niche product hoping to pick up maybe 5% to 10% of a few selected markets over 2-3 years. To me that's far too short term and lacking ambition.

I'm looking at 10-15 years because I think it will take 3-5 years for the dairy industries and consumers in major markets such as NZ, Australia and UK to take on board the reality that A1 carries definite health risks, and then about another decade for farmers to switch their herds (a la the advice from Woodford) to the point where A2 will be the mainstream milk and most consumers and supermarkets won't want to touch A1 with a bargepole. How high the ATM SP can go in that scenario is anyone's guess, but frankly I'll get most of my personal satisfaction from watching the vision of Corran McLachlan and Howard Patterson being brought to fruition.

Some call me passionate about this. I'm not driven by passion, which implies rationality being overruled by emotion. The drive comes from having followed the science around A1/A2 for over a decade. And from having watched the likes of Fonterra and DairyUK and the Food Safety Authorities and our Primary Industries Ministry (former MAF) conspiring to conceal a major human health risk from the public. For no good reason, because it's perfectly possible for the dairy industry to switch to A2. We're not just talking indigestion, we're talking major human diseases.

Recent market developments in Australia plus the growing awareness of the UK media about A2, especially since the Curtin study, give me confidence that the process is at long last taking off, and from here on it will be largely consumer-led, with A2MC at times struggling to meet demand. Slow at first but gathering pace.

[Harrie]

No problem with your long term view MAC, just a flippant comment on short term traders perception.
The only thing I would say is that the announcement wrt synlait regulatory announcement is not likely to push SP up to $0.80. Most investors following this stock would be anticipating this to be a given, so its already been discounted in the current SP to a fairly large degree. The other increasing and diversified product range such as UHT etc showing growth along with increasing sales in the UK IMHO is far more likely to lift the price to that level in the shorter term.
Happy to be proved wrong though!
As an aside,picked up a parcel today at 0.58

[nextbigthing]

Another couple of reasonable sized parcels went through after close today. Still a distinct lack of SSH notices. Something's up.

[NT001]

I'm worried about a cheap takeover bid by interests who recognise the longer term value of the company's IP. JushuaTree, do you have an update on the major holdings? Or anyone else?

[see weed]

Gave away another three a2 flyers today to people who have never heard of a2. So I have worked it out if I tell an average of three people a day, then that =1095 people a year, and if they tell 10 family and friends= 10,950 , and if they tell 10 more= 109500, then they tell another 10= 1,095,000 people. So in a years time, if 4 people were doing it, then the whole country would know about it. Or 8 people were doing it, then it would only take 6 months.

[see weed]

Another couple of reasonable sized parcels went through after close today. Still a distinct lack of SSH notices. Something's up.

Takes a day or two before they announce it.

[see weed]

I'm worried about a cheap takeover bid by interests who recognise the longer term value of the company's IP. JushuaTree, do you have an update on the major holdings? Or anyone else?

Don't worry about it, there is to many big share holders who will not let this company go at this low price.

[NT001]

Don't worry about it, there is to many big share holders who will not let this company go at this low price.

I'm sure you're right, but what about at say 100c? That might seem attractive to some, but to me it's way too low. I'd quite like to know who the owners are of the almost 50% held by NZ Central Securities Depository, although the total held there doesn't seem to have changed much lately. Freedom Foods and Mountain Road (Cliff Cook) have almost 30% between them, which is somewhat comforting.

[psychic]

Alternatively you may be scaring people away!

lol. Hard to damn so much enthusiasm but yeah, maybe you should run this by atm first see weed?
But as a holder, thank you for the passion!

[Xerof]

Another couple of reasonable sized parcels went through after close today. Still a distinct lack of SSH notices. Something's up.

you can go to 5% before having to file. Thereafter, every 1%.
That would be quite a lot of shares to be changing hands, especially for someone starting from zero.

[MAC]

Another couple of reasonable sized parcels went through after close today. Still a distinct lack of SSH notices. Something's up.

Perhaps there is something in the background NBT, who knows, just a large holder exiting most probably, the Synlait announcement day could be an interesting one though if they are done by that point. Zigzag just kindly informed us that John Penno yesterday said that he sees it occurring within the next month, reinforcing Geoff Babidge’s comments on timing.

Post reporting analysts price targets are consistently 35% above present share price, valuations are probably consistently higher again, mine certainly is FY15 $1.10, the share price is at or about 18 month lows, revenue growth has been 150% in that same duration, key Australian growth is ahead of plan, and a new market in the US is being opened up.

tick tock

[Xerof]

you can go to 5% before having to file. Thereafter, every 1%.
That would be quite a lot of shares to be changing hands, especially for someone starting from zero.

I also point out that if a 4% holder, whose shares are held in NZ Central Securities, sells to other significant holders who remain under 5% AND also use NZCS as their registrar, then looking at an updated shareholder list tells us nothing. There is no movement shown.

All we can say is willing seller(s) are handing them to willing buyer(s) and the buyers realise there is a degree of urgency for the seller to dispose, hence the price drift.

It's just what markets do isn't it?

[NT001]

The ATM mob over in Aussie are getting on with the job of selling into China.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/aussie-a2-selling-milk-to-china-online/story-e6frg8zx-1227061975865

[winner69]

The ATM mob over in Aussie are getting on with the job of selling into China.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/aussie-a2-selling-milk-to-china-online/story-e6frg8zx-1227061975865

Is this a Freedom initiative then

[stoploss]

The ATM mob over in Aussie are getting on with the job of selling into China.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/aussie-a2-selling-milk-to-china-online/story-e6frg8zx-1227061975865

If they could get Au $ 9.00 per litre why bother about making it into baby powder , just export the raw milk ....

http://www.afr.com/p/business/companies/norco_corners_fresh_milk_niche_in_tQEKvPGH44KWafh8 ZbUaDN

[zigzag]

Gave away another three a2 flyers today to people who have never heard of a2. So I have worked it out if I tell an average of three people a day, then that =1095 people a year, and if they tell 10 family and friends= 10,950 , and if they tell 10 more= 109500, then they tell another 10= 1,095,000 people. So in a years time, if 4 people were doing it, then the whole country would know about it. Or 8 people were doing it, then it would only take 6 months.

I admire you're enthusiasm, but I do hope ATM has the capacity to keep up with the demand you're creating. Also worried that with your penchant for handing out flyers, you could get mistaken for Falan Gong and end up in trouble.

[see weed]

Gave away another three a2 flyers today to people who have never heard of a2. So I have worked it out if I tell an average of three people a day, then that =1095 people a year, and if they tell 10 family and friends= 10,950 , and if they tell 10 more= 109500, then they tell another 10= 1,095,000 people. So in a years time, if 4 people were doing it, then the whole country would know about it. Or 8 people were doing it, then it would only take 6 months.

Another 8 this afternoon in CDown & PnS, but 2 already new about it. The other 6 were very greatful for the info, specially the pregnant ones and with little kids.

[see weed]

I admire you're enthusiasm, but I do hope ATM has the capacity to keep up with the demand you're creating. Also worried that with your penchant for handing out flyers, you could get mistaken for Falan Gong and end up in trouble.

They have plenty of a2. Somebody rang them up last week, and they said they could supply as much as you want. What did Falan Gong do now, could you refresh my memory.........Don't worry, I remember now.

[MAC]

They are wasting no time NT001, that first fresh milk air freight was only a few weeks ago, that's ATM though, see a market and go it full speed.

From the FY report Winner, up and away wouldn’t you say ?

“The Company previously advised of the plan to develop products such as UHT milk for sale in Asian markets. This plan is now being progressed. In addition, the sale of fresh a2 Milk™ sourced from Australia into China is a further opportunity now underway, with the first trial shipment having been made in late August 2014. These opportunities are potentially attractive in their own right and will strengthen both the a2 Milk™ brand and our infant formula business in Asia.”

Not sure about $9 a bottle Stoploss, that’s the cheap A1 stuff, ATM are charging 79 yuan, NZ$16 per bottle.

http://gb.isvoc.com/201408262816-24-hours-of-arrival-in-australia-a2-cold-chain-distribution-of-fresh-milk-on-sale-exclusively-at-jingdong.html#.VBpg2qjoTAE

[stoploss]

They are wasting no time NT001, that first fresh milk air freight was only a few weeks ago, that's ATM though, see a market and go it full speed.

From the FY report Winner, up and away wouldn’t you say ?

“The Company previously advised of the plan to develop products such as UHT milk for sale in Asian markets. This plan is now being progressed. In addition, the sale of fresh a2 Milk™ sourced from Australia into China is a further opportunity now underway, with the first trial shipment having been made in late August 2014. These opportunities are potentially attractive in their own right and will strengthen both the a2 Milk™ brand and our infant formula business in Asia.”

Not sure about $9 a bottle Stoploss, that’s the cheap A1 stuff, ATM are charging 79 yuan, NZ$16 per bottle.

http://gb.isvoc.com/201408262816-24-hours-of-arrival-in-australia-a2-cold-chain-distribution-of-fresh-milk-on-sale-exclusively-at-jingdong.html#.VBpg2qjoTAE
I like that even more !!!
DISC : Holding

[Master98]

The ATM mob over in Aussie are getting on with the job of selling into China.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/aussie-a2-selling-milk-to-china-online/story-e6frg8zx-1227061975865

I don't expect they can get meaningful earning from selling fresh milk to china, the cost is very high unless the selling price is very high also;)

[ziggy415]

hi guys..been drinking A2 milk for 6 weeks now and blood pressure is lowest its been for ages..go to work on Monday night and i collapse with a bloody heart attack....go figure....got the drain pipes cleared and now home...first thing I did...go to A2 thread.. love the news about USA...as an aside waikato hospital are tops...should get seeweed to give me some flyers for my next visit

[Ginger_steps_]

hi guys..been drinking A2 milk for 6 weeks now and blood pressure is lowest its been for ages..go to work on Monday night and i collapse with a bloody heart attack....go figure....got the drain pipes cleared and now home...first thing I did...go to A2 thread.. love the news about USA...as an aside waikato hospital are tops...should get seeweed to give me some flyers for my next visit

You are a legend.

[iceman]

hi guys..been drinking A2 milk for 6 weeks now and blood pressure is lowest its been for ages..go to work on Monday night and i collapse with a bloody heart attack....go figure....got the drain pipes cleared and now home...first thing I did...go to A2 thread.. love the news about USA...as an aside waikato hospital are tops...should get seeweed to give me some flyers for my next visit

Good to have you back with us mate. Good luck.

[Ginger_steps_]

Gave away another three a2 flyers today to people who have never heard of a2. So I have worked it out if I tell an average of three people a day, then that =1095 people a year, and if they tell 10 family and friends= 10,950 , and if they tell 10 more= 109500, then they tell another 10= 1,095,000 people. So in a years time, if 4 people were doing it, then the whole country would know about it. Or 8 people were doing it, then it would only take 6 months.

This is hilarious! I like your style see weed! How long do you hang around the milk section for each visit?! I have a mental picture (which is probably far from the truth) and am chuckling away to myself. Did you make the a2 flyers yourself?? Would you mind sharing a pic with us/me in a PM? I have been slowly converting health conscious mothers at my sons playgroup each week here in Aussie. Perhaps I should take a leaf out of your book and give them a full on presentation and the kids a taste testing - the play group organisers would love it!

On another note - as mentioned earlier I struggle to get a2 at my local Coles supermarket - usually because it sells out in between re-stocking the shelves, although this week the truck driver left the pallet behind in Brisbane... However i have noticed that the two types of low fat milk are always fully stocked - they don't seem to be very popular.

[see weed]

hi guys..been drinking A2 milk for 6 weeks now and blood pressure is lowest its been for ages..go to work on Monday night and i collapse with a bloody heart attack....go figure....got the drain pipes cleared and now home...first thing I did...go to A2 thread.. love the news about USA...as an aside waikato hospital are tops...should get seeweed to give me some flyers for my next visit

Good luck for your recovery. Next time you are in Auckland I will meet you somewhere, and give you some flyers.

[see weed]

This is hilarious! I like your style see weed! How long do you hang around the milk section for each visit?! I have a mental picture (which is probably far from the truth) and am chuckling away to myself. Did you make the a2 flyers yourself?? Would you mind sharing a pic with us/me in a PM? I have been slowly converting health conscious mothers at my sons playgroup each week here in Aussie. Perhaps I should take a leaf out of your book and give them a full on presentation and the kids a taste testing - the play group organisers would love it!

On another note - as mentioned earlier I struggle to get a2 at my local Coles supermarket - usually because it sells out in between re-stocking the shelves, although this week the truck driver left the pallet behind in Brisbane... However i have noticed that the two types of low fat milk are always fully stocked - they don't seem to be very popular.

I always have a few flyers where ever I go, so it only takes a couple of minutes. I don't do PM. The top of flyer is headed "About a2 Milk" The rest has been taken from info off Google. I have come up with another idea, will tell you later. I like the idea of tast testing, keep up the good work for the company that we are part owners of.

[MAC]

Bought any fresh a2 milk in China yet Blobbles ?

[see weed]

Made a big bobo today.Don't all laugh at once. Had 10,000 to sell at 69c been sitting there for a couple of weeks. Put an order in and bought 17,000 today, and decided to amend the order to 59c within two minutes of the original order because seeing 59c disappearing fast. So clicked on amend and the 17,000 order had not loaded up yet. So the order I amended was the 10,000 lot at 69c that sold :ohmy:at 59c by mistake. Lost $1000.00. So I suppose you could say I bought the shares off myself and lost $1000.00 plus brokerage . I laughed so much I nearly cried. :D:scared:

[stoploss]

Made a big bobo today.Don't all laugh at once. Had 10,000 to sell at 69c been sitting there for a couple of weeks. Put an order in and bought 17,000 today, and decided to amend the order to 59c within two minutes of the original order because seeing 59c disappearing fast. So clicked on amend and the 17,000 order had not loaded up yet. So the order I amended was the 10,000 lot at 69c that sold :ohmy:at 59c by mistake. Lost $1000.00. So I suppose you could say I bought the shares off myself and lost $1000.00 plus brokerage . I laughed so much I nearly cried. :D:scared:

Just buy the 10,000 back @ 59 then all you have lost is brokerage, even if you have to pay .60 you have only lost $ 100 plus the brokerage .....

[NT001]

What you been drinking, SW? A1 milk?

[winner69]

Made a big bobo today.Don't all laugh at once. Had 10,000 to sell at 69c been sitting there for a couple of weeks. Put an order in and bought 17,000 today, and decided to amend the order to 59c within two minutes of the original order because seeing 59c disappearing fast. So clicked on amend and the 17,000 order had not loaded up yet. So the order I amended was the 10,000 lot at 69c that sold :ohmy:at 59c by mistake. Lost $1000.00. So I suppose you could say I bought the shares off myself and lost $1000.00 plus brokerage . I laughed so much I nearly cried. :D:scared:

The gods might be looking down you .....could be the best price for ages ....better than selling at 49

[rbel038]

Bought any fresh a2 milk in China yet Blobbles ?

I might have not been in the most affluent areas of shanghai , but I have never come across fresh milk in china. always bags of powder. Maybe im not rich enough lol

[blobbles]

I might have not been in the most affluent areas of shanghai , but I have never come across fresh milk in china. always bags of powder. Maybe im not rich enough lol

Huh? Fresh milk is everywhere in China! Haven't spotted A2 yet, but haven't been in any supermarkets as I am travelling. Will pop my head in if I see a flash supermarket here in Beijing, almost certainly won't be in everyday supermarkets for 80 kuai a pop...

[MAC]

rbel038 & blobbles

It’s exclusively online at Jingdong only, perhaps some old guy in a rickshaw will drop it off to you, could be Shanghai’s first milkman, would be fascinated to know ?

http://search.jd.com/Search?keyword=a2%20milk&enc=utf-8

804 rating comments already, should be expected I suppose, everything's big in China.

http://item.jd.com/1199167.html#comment

Background;

http://gb.isvoc.com/201408262816-24-...l#.VBpg2qjoTAE (http://gb.isvoc.com/201408262816-24-hours-of-arrival-in-australia-a2-cold-chain-distribution-of-fresh-milk-on-sale-exclusively-at-jingdong.html#.VBpg2qjoTAE)

6269

[NT001]

A2 milk formula and A2MC get several mentions in the lengthy annual report of Synlait. It makes the point that the contract to manufacture A2 Platinum milk formula comes under a special category for products with unique characteristics, and also states:

"THE PLATINUM STANDARD IN INFANT FORMULA

New Zealand-listed company The a2 Milk Company™ has a distinct point of difference in the global dairy market.

While most cow’s milk contains both A2 and A1 beta-casein protein, The a2 Milk Company™ markets and distributes milk products that exclusively contain the A2 protein. It is believed a2 Milk™ is easier on digestion. Evidence suggests this is due to the milk being free of A1 beta casein. Interestingly this makes milk free from A1 beta casein more like human breast milk, which is also ‘A2’ like in terms of protein structure and the way it digests. The company has had success in Australia with fresh milk products. a2 Milk™ is Australia’s fastest growing milk brand in supermarkets achieving approximately 9% value share.

In early 2012 we entered into a supply agreement with The a2 Milk Company™. This involved working with a number of our milk suppliers who had expressed an interest in converting their herds to cows that don’t produce the A1 beta casein protein. This involves a simple and non-invasive proprietary DNA test to select and segregate the cows to exclusively produce milk that is naturally free of A1 beta casein. Today 17 of our supplier farms take part in supplying a2 MilkTM. In addition to on-farm genetics, a2 milkTM must be collected and processed separately from our standard milk supply. The milk produced by our supplier farmers and processed by us is used to create a2Platinum®, the only infant formula range using exclusively the all-natural A2 protein and free from A1 beta casein protein. Launched in 2013, the product is distributed in China, Australia and New Zealand. To date sales of a2 Platinum® have exceeded expectation, particularly in the Australian market. It is forecast over the coming financial year that a2Platinum® will be one of our leading infant formula customers.

We continue to work collaboratively with The a2 Milk Company™ to provide sales and marketing information for promotional purposes and hosting media and distributor delegations at our facility."

Unfortunately the Synlait report sheds no light on when it expects to receive full Chinese registration for the manufacture and export of infant formula, though it does not hint at there being any problem.

[see weed]

A2 milk formula and A2MC get several mentions in the lengthy annual report of Synlait. It makes the point that the contract to manufacture A2 Platinum milk formula comes under a special category for products with unique characteristics, and also states:

"THE PLATINUM STANDARD IN INFANT FORMULA

New Zealand-listed company The a2 Milk Company™ has a distinct point of difference in the global dairy market.

While most cow’s milk contains both A2 and A1 beta-casein protein, The a2 Milk Company™ markets and distributes milk products that exclusively contain the A2 protein. It is believed a2 Milk™ is easier on digestion. Evidence suggests this is due to the milk being free of A1 beta casein. Interestingly this makes milk free from A1 beta casein more like human breast milk, which is also ‘A2’ like in terms of protein structure and the way it digests. The company has had success in Australia with fresh milk products. a2 Milk™ is Australia’s fastest growing milk brand in supermarkets achieving approximately 9% value share.

In early 2012 we entered into a supply agreement with The a2 Milk Company™. This involved working with a number of our milk suppliers who had expressed an interest in converting their herds to cows that don’t produce the A1 beta casein protein. This involves a simple and non-invasive proprietary DNA test to select and segregate the cows to exclusively produce milk that is naturally free of A1 beta casein. Today 17 of our supplier farms take part in supplying a2 MilkTM. In addition to on-farm genetics, a2 milkTM must be collected and processed separately from our standard milk supply. The milk produced by our supplier farmers and processed by us is used to create a2Platinum®, the only infant formula range using exclusively the all-natural A2 protein and free from A1 beta casein protein. Launched in 2013, the product is distributed in China, Australia and New Zealand. To date sales of a2 Platinum® have exceeded expectation, particularly in the Australian market. It is forecast over the coming financial year that a2Platinum® will be one of our leading infant formula customers.

We continue to work collaboratively with The a2 Milk Company™ to provide sales and marketing information for promotional purposes and hosting media and distributor delegations at our facility."

Unfortunately the Synlait report sheds no light on when it expects to receive full Chinese registration for the manufacture and export of infant formula, though it does not hint at there being any problem.

Sounds good to me, specially the marketing and media hosting they are doing. I told another 6 people yesterday about a2, and noticed the lady changed her a1 to a2 in her shopping basket.

[greenglass]

Sorry to put a damper on all this enthusiasm, but I went in to Pack and Save Alderman
Drive yesterday and they were selling off remaining stocks of ATM Platinum for $10 as a discontinued line.

Disc. Hold

[MAC]

Sorry to put a damper on all this enthusiasm, but I went in to Pack and Save Alderman
Drive yesterday and they were selling off remaining stocks of ATM Platinum for $10 as a discontinued line.

Disc. Hold

Some Alibaba user just got super lucky, they're probably already winging their way to China.

Almost as lucky as this guy !

http://metro.co.uk/2014/09/20/luckiest-cyclist-in-the-world-biker-survives-incredible-double-near-miss-while-crossing-the-road-4876152/

[NT001]

Sorry to put a damper on all this enthusiasm, but I went in to Pack and Save Alderman Drive yesterday and they were selling off remaining stocks of ATM Platinum for $10 as a discontinued line. Disc. Hold

There can be various reasons for this, and it often happens in supermarkets, such as there's a change of labelling or the stock was an old line, perhaps from the outfit up in Auckland that was manufacturing for ATM. It may even be that this Pak'N'Save store is rationalising its brand mix - after all, A2 formula is expensive, and P'N'S boasts that everything it does is to save customers money.

Whatever, I think we can be absolutely certain ATM Platinum formula is not being discontinued as such.

On a slightly different tack, I went to our local Countdown (Crofton Downs) yesterday which has often been running out of A2 milk, and I couldn't see any so I complained once again. A very nice (new) staffer came out of the coldstore and pointed proudly to where it was - much more prominently displayed now in a better part of the dairy section. He said he's increased the store's A2 order by 40% because demand is increasing strongly, and will probably start putting it out in boxes soon, not just on the shelf. He was aware of the health claims for A2.

[see weed]

Someone was eager at 4.57pm today putting in 342,000 order to buy and pushed price to 60-61c. Was that you NT001? I get the feeling buyers are building up, but I also get the feeling that there was plenty of sellers in the past week feeding the buyers at 60c.

[Fisherking]

Sorry to put a damper on all this enthusiasm, but I went in to Pack and Save Alderman
Drive yesterday and they were selling off remaining stocks of ATM Platinum for $10 as a discontinued line.

Disc. Hold

I'm pretty familiar with PNS stores; Alderman Drive is not really in an ideal catchment for likely a2 customers.

[winner69]

I'm pretty familiar with PNS stores; Alderman Drive is not really in an ideal catchment for likely a2 customers.

Fisherking, just As a matter of interest who do you think is winning the overall grocery war at the moment - Countdown or New World/Pak n Save?

[Master98]

I'm pretty familiar with PNS stores; Alderman Drive is not really in an ideal catchment for likely a2 customers.
lol, pak n save is my favourite supermarket.

[NT001]

Someone was eager at 4.57pm today putting in 342,000 order to buy and pushed price to 60-61c. Was that you NT001?

Not me, I'm happy at the moment and won't necessarily always disclose what I'm doing anyway. If there are buyers coming in, it wouldn't surprise me if they're Australian or even British, looking for a piece of the action.

[mattwanz]

Does this New milk registration from ages ago include infant formula? http://tvnz.co.nz/business-news/a2-milk-secures-chinese-licence-synlait-still-waiting-6034686

[nextbigthing]

What's up with the 6 sales of 86 shares at 59c?

Nice to see a slightly higher vwap today.

[NT001]

Does this New milk registration from ages ago include infant formula? http://tvnz.co.nz/business-news/a2-milk-secures-chinese-licence-synlait-still-waiting-6034686

I think this news release issued by A2MC in July answers your question and also explains how it has been able to market formula into China despite the delay with Synlait. Not sure whether it has been able to supply as fully as it has wanted, but the Synlait registration delay would seem not to have been a huge problem for A2MC.

http://thea2milkcompany.com/a2-platinum-infant-formula-achieves-regulatory-approval-from-china-2/

[iceman]

Sorry to put a damper on all this enthusiasm, but I went in to Pack and Save Alderman
Drive yesterday and they were selling off remaining stocks of ATM Platinum for $10 as a discontinued line.

Disc. Hold

Had a look in Waitrose close to the London Tower Bridge on Sunday and they had A2 milk fairly conspicuously displayed at GBP 2 per lts while the "normal" homebrand was at GBP 1.