ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[davflaws]

Let's all take a chill pill and recognize that Beagle and Couta1 are actually good friends and have been ribbing each other for quite a while.


Have a lovey day, everyone.

Who are you - and what have you done with Balance?

But seriously - I really like you in the role of peacemaker!!

[alokdhir]

Can someone explain how this index rebalancing works ...as today FPH big up on huge volumes . Not all heavy weights were up though SPK , RYM and FBU were down too on big volumes .

Just want to understand why some stocks up while some down on this rebalancing day and what it means going forward for up stocks and down stock ...trying to make sense of how and why of these days .

ATM also had huge volumes in the last 15 minutes ...positive volumes as they made SP come back to normal range !!

[Beagle]

Come on guys, move on!

Yes. Not everyone is going to like you on a public forum - Vince.
Some people don't like the dog's barking so for the sake of everyone else's enjoyment of a clean forum please, you are most welcome indeed to add me to your ignore list.
Click on settings at the top of the page, and then half way down the menu bar on the left you will see the option to edit your ignore list. I am finding this ignore function a very useful tool myself at present.

[bull....]

a2m clinging desparately to support around current levels. im picking a big woosh down if it doesnt hold.
shorts continue to build.

[arekaywhy]

Far-be-it for me to comment on the recent shenanigans, but some of the responses on this thread are a bit bitchy... if I may, perhaps it is best to re-read something before assigning a "tone" to it, such that you take all subjectivity away from what someone has written. Remember, you cannot "hear" what someone has written down, and it pays not to.

...unless you all happen to be females...then I can kinda understand what's going on...

[Biscuit]

...unless you all happen to be females...then I can kinda understand what's going on...

Ah, objectively, I'd assign the tone "snide"?

[arekaywhy]

Ah, objectively, I'd assign the tone "snide"?

ok, maybe a little haha, but I have had a really bad experience with female friends over time... a lot of explaining and then exasperation at even bothering in the first place. Social media can be evil.

[LEMON]

Its all good if my message came across wrong. I am though just simply stating in a kind manner its time to move on. Its not very good for anyones mindset to come on this forum and read the prolonged argument about who is right and who is wrong.
I merely only come here to read the reasons for and against myself making some money in this stock.

Perfect example is Bulls message today is he right or is he wrong? Can we have a discussion about why he may be or why he may not be correct that the stock is about to be shorted again.

[Snow Leopard]

....Perfect example is Bulls message today is he right or is he wrong? Can we have a discussion about why he may be or why he may not be correct that the stock is about to be shorted again.

He is right in some time frames and wrong in others.

I, myself, recently predicted that the bottom was in. I was correct for just over a week and been wrong ever since.

But I still believe I will have my days of milk & honey.

[Balance]

Its all good if my message came across wrong. I am though just simply stating in a kind manner its time to move on. Its not very good for anyones mindset to come on this forum and read the prolonged argument about who is right and who is wrong.
I merely only come here to read the reasons for and against myself making some money in this stock.

Perfect example is Bulls message today is he right or is he wrong? Can we have a discussion about why he may be or why he may not be correct that the stock is about to be shorted again.

Shorts are building up to yet another high - 60m shares shorted as of a week ago.

A lot of nervousness in Oz about where the Chinese are going to strike against Australia next on the trade front - iron ore, timber, meat, wine - could dairy be next?

ASX Wine stocks were hammered down by 20% last week.

That is the long and short of sp driver for today imo.

[Leftfield]

Perfect example is Bulls message today is he right or is he wrong? Can we have a discussion about why he may be or why he may not be correct that the stock is about to be shorted again.

Hi Lemon, yes nice to be moving on.... and in that context, here are my thoughts on recent shorting of ATM.

1.) Below chart shows Shorts aren't increasing as Bull say's, but have seemingly levelled off just below 8%... but for how long who knows. See point 2 below also.
12123
2.) As ATM is now increasingly held by institutions (est around 87%) we need to appreciate that a large part of the shorting may well be the same institutions 'hedging' their holdings to offset perceived risks such as the Geopolitical risk between China and Aus/NZ. This is quite different from speculators 'shorting.'
3.) I believe the key risks facing ATM at the moment are not the changing diagou channels, but are a reflection of the China/Aus tensions (and yes I appreciate ATM's A2 IF comes from NZ.), plus the unknown of a new CEO taking over (which may also be a risky time.)
4.) So of course there are risks with ATM as there are with any shares. What tomorrows SP may be is anyone's guess, but I'm more inclined to Snow Leopard's thinking as per post #18259 and my off stated belief that ATM will return to outperforming the NZX50 index in 2021. However my risk profile is much different from a new ATM investor, so as always DYOR.

[Beagle]

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/china-strikes-back-morrison-should-kneel-on-the-ground-slap-himself-in-the-face-on-live-tv/ar-BB1bv2GL?ocid=msedgdhp

This looks extremely ugly with the potential to have even more serious trade implications going forward.

[Mr Slothbear]

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/china-strikes-back-morrison-should-kneel-on-the-ground-slap-himself-in-the-face-on-live-tv/ar-BB1bv2GL?ocid=msedgdhp

This looks extremely ugly with the potential to have even more serious trade implications going forward.


Article not applicable to A2 but if the downramp helps the shareprice get down to my buy levels I’m happy

in fact worsening trade between aus and china will remove quite a few potential competitors such as bubs and bal so could help A2 quite a lot.

[Biscuit]

Hi Lemon, yes nice to be moving on.... and in that context, here are my thoughts on recent shorting of ATM.

1.) Below chart shows Shorts aren't increasing as Bull say's, but have seemingly levelled off just below 8%... but for how long who knows. See point 2 below also.
12123
2.) As ATM is now increasingly held by institutions (est around 87%) we need to appreciate that a large part of the shorting may well be the same institutions 'hedging' their holdings to offset perceived risks such as the Geopolitical risk between China and Aus/NZ. This is quite different from speculators 'shorting.'
3.) I believe the key risks facing ATM at the moment are not the changing diagou channels, but are a reflection of the China/Aus tensions (and yes I appreciate ATM's A2 IF comes from NZ.), plus the unknown of a new CEO taking over (which may also be a risky time.)
4.) So of course there are risks with ATM as there are with any shares. What tomorrows SP may be is anyone's guess, but I'm more inclined to Snow Leopard's thinking as per post #18259 and my off stated belief that ATM will return to outperforming the NZX50 index in 2021. However my risk profile is much different from a new ATM investor, so as always DYOR.


Shorting seems very cyclical, peaking December/January every year. I agree we don't need to read too much into it. Your risk is the same as every other holder though.

[Biscuit]

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/china-strikes-back-morrison-should-kneel-on-the-ground-slap-himself-in-the-face-on-live-tv/ar-BB1bv2GL?ocid=msedgdhp

This looks extremely ugly with the potential to have even more serious trade implications going forward.

Problem for NZ is we don't want to offend China but we need to support our allies, especially when they are in the right.

[Waltzing]

New documents of virus numbers in china early stage looks like it may give some push back to help the aussi position..

ATM chart looks very nice here. If support fails here it all the way back to under 12 im afraid.

[Cyclical]

.... and in that context, here are my thoughts on recent shorting of ATM.

2.) As ATM is now increasingly held by institutions (est around 87%) we need to appreciate that a large part of the shorting may well be the same institutions 'hedging' their holdings to offset perceived risks such as the Geopolitical risk between China and Aus/NZ. This is quite different from speculators 'shorting.'



...in fact worsening trade between aus and china will remove quite a few potential competitors such as bubs and bal so could help A2 quite a lot.

A couple of good points right there.

Meanwhile, she's under a bit of pressure today and wondering if we will see a retest of recent lows.

[LEMON]

With so much positive impact on Dairy products from NZ and even a 2% rise in demand for dairy products from China, some reports reckon if all exports take a hit from this trade war here in NZ, then NZ dairy will be the last to feel the burn. So is it just the impact of Australia's trade war and the ripple over the ASX causing A2 to fall?
It's always a positive impact on the NZX in the morning but the moment the ASX opens it's pinned down again.

Then the signing of the ASEAN trade agreement from China on the 5th of nov? you would think that would help with the situation instead Australia and China are still at each other.
How much longer can they keep it up and will either one feel the burn more than others.
Some reckon Australia will prevail others think China doesn't need us.

There is also the point of A2s strong links with China's dairy industries you would think that would help A2 to position itself over the next few months to outperform other dairy products from say Australia's dairy industries who are taking a hard hit? As MR slothbear points out earlier

[Waltzing]

collateral damage...fund manager wont pick through the orchard...

[Biscuit]

Blindly following the Fornicator Trump = right?

I beg to differ.

Well, actually, in imposing trade tariffs and resorting to fake news, it is China that is following Trump.

[Balance]

Well, actually, in imposing trade tariffs and resorting to fake news, it is China that is following Trump.

Talking about Australia here - China is China.

China has already won the trade war with US and prices will go up in China but as a country, it is prepared to put up with hardship on its citizens. Not so US or Oz.

[BlackPeter]

Shorts are building up to yet another high - 60m shares shorted as of a week ago.

A lot of nervousness in Oz about where the Chinese are going to strike against Australia next on the trade front - iron ore, timber, meat, wine - could dairy be next?

ASX Wine stocks were hammered down by 20% last week.

That is the long and short of sp driver for today imo.

Bad enough that the Ossies are claiming the NZ Pavlova and some NZ movie stars as theirs ... isn't A2 Milk a New
Zealand company as well? Time to tell at least the Chinese, i recon.

Though I agree that NZ is walking currently as well a fine line between annoying the other four eyes and annoying one of our most important customers.

[Leftfield]

Article not applicable to A2 but if the downramp helps the shareprice get down to my buy levels I’m happy
in fact worsening trade between aus and china will remove quite a few potential competitors such as bubs and bal so could help A2 quite a lot.

Other viewpoints to counter such pessimistic journalism, and more applicable to ATM are;

China and it's 'political' corporates are deeply embedded in the A2 manufacture and distribution via exclusive Chinese distribution rights for A2 and major share holdings/investments in SML and Mataura Valley Milk. Any Chinese penalties on NZ A2 IF or diary will hurt these highly leveraged Chinese companies and we should not ignore the anger of many Chinese moms and babies that prefer A2.

Any Chinese penalties on Australian A2 sourced products on their own could actually strengthen NZ sourced A2 IF as Slothbear points out in his/her last sentence.

And then there is the growing A2 markets in other Asian countries that is expanding to offset China's risks.

Lastly we can assume that Biden's administration will support Aus and NZ trade rights more strongly than Trump and China's trade powers may well have peaked.

The UN's Trade dispute role will also be strengthened in the years ahead after having been hamstrung by Trump's refusal to appoint key people to support this. Also A2's progress in USA will be assisted by a more open Biden administration.

JMHO. DYOR.

[Waltzing]

CCP doesnt care about anything ... that includes corporate defaults..

they will crush ATM as collateral damage if anything NZ does gets in the way.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D084N4cxkNQ


Hong Kong CEO doesnt even have access to a bank account at the moment. You think the CCP care about some diary investments?

Bond defaults were broadcast 2 years ago and here they are..

CCP doesnt know what a bond default means... they dont care.

[Balance]

https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/retail/pauline-hanson-calls-for-boycott-on-chinese-products-for-christmas/news-story/086a2b20b56fd66812cc465d23e35010

Boycott China products this Christmas - guess there will be no decorated Christmas trees, toys under the tree and no summer wear on 25th Dec?

What a tubful of smelly rotten rhubarb.

Oz must learn to pick its fight and hurt the Chinese where it matters.

[bull....]

Ardern sides with Australia in China spat
New Zealand has intervened in the escalating diplomatic row between Australia and China, raising concerns over a doctored image shared by a senior Chinese official on Twitter

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/world/ardern-sides-with-australia-in-china-spat/ar-BB1bv8YU?ocid=msedgdhp

[BlackPeter]

CCP doesnt care about anything ... that includes corporate defaults..

they will crush ATM as collateral damage if anything NZ does gets in the way.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D084N4cxkNQ


Hong Kong CEO doesnt even have access to a bank account at the moment. You think the CCP care about some diary investments?

Bond defaults were broadcast 2 years ago and here they are..

CCP doesnt know what a bond default means... they dont care.

Not quite sure what the robot video is supposed to prove? Has clearly nothing to do with your broad smear against China supported by no facts at all. Making up your own facts?

Now - it is true that China is a dictatorship run by the so called communist party headed by the strong man Xi. It is true as well that China is neither particularly good in observing and protecting human rights be it in their own population or in the areas they consider as part of their country (despite having occupied them, often with military force). They are as well not known for an independent or unbiased judicial system - the courts tend to do whatever the party tells them to.

Occasionally they break international treaties if they consider them not in their best interest ... and yes, they do use economic sanctions for political blackmail (though less often than the US does :) ).

Having said that - much of above could be said as well about the US under Trump. He cares a sh*t about the human rights of refugees, of the ordinary Iranean people or of anybody living in countries he calls sh*tholes. He works hard to nullify the result of democratic elections in his own country and he worked as well hard to undermine the legal system in his country, to name just some examples.
The US under Trump did break plenty of international treaties as it pleased the strongman ... and yes, they did love under him to apply economic sanctions for political blackmail - or just to please the ego of the strongman.

I don't want to turn this into a political discussion and sure, the US system does not (yet) allow all the excesses the Chinese system does - but in principle is China not behaving much different than some of our so called Western friends, just less erratic. You could even say the Chinese did learn from America that it is ok to misbehave on the international stage as long as they are stronger than the opponent (and they normally are).

Having said that - China did attack in the last hundred years significantly less foreign countries than the US did. Actually, not sure they attacked even one (edit: they did, Tibet in 1949, but they would say that this was always their territory), while the US attacked and interfered with a long list of countries (including China and its neighbors Korea and Vietnam ;):

I am pretty sure that China did break during its long history less international agreements than the US broke only during the last four years ... and looking at their way to do business - the Chinese actually do prefer to create long term win-win relationships while the US under Trump was just keen on zero sum deals (US wins, the other side loses).

Sure - it is clearly not wise to annoy the tiger without a good reason (and escape plan :) - but broadcasting baseless smears against China is certainly neither appropriate nor helpful.

[bull....]

CCP doesnt care about anything ... that includes corporate defaults..

they will crush ATM as collateral damage if anything NZ does gets in the way.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D084N4cxkNQ


Hong Kong CEO doesnt even have access to a bank account at the moment. You think the CCP care about some diary investments?

Bond defaults were broadcast 2 years ago and here they are..

CCP doesnt know what a bond default means... they dont care.

they will crush a2 like an ant under the foot

[Waltzing]

not smearing anything... robot looks good at crushing... Ant under foot... NZ is the ANT!

making up facts? defaults on bonds were signalled to the market 2 years ago. the warning we made often.

The bond defaults are here now and getting bigger. Those default signal that the bank of china was instructed not to step in and pay them out.

No bond defaults? Pardon? Information on the likely default not broadcast loudly 2 years ago? They were heard on trading floors around the globe.

There are no smears when its a fact the bond market defaults were made public years ago on every major business channel. I did happen to have access to the trading floors in hong Kong until recently and everyone knew the defaults were coming.

many people dont like the facts because will hurt there positions. well thats a market.

thanks balance i agree, and i hope it doesnt happen. We like this stock and the lower it goes on no news the more you can profit from it.

Other than that i like the post and i agree with black peter but CCP are far more sinister than we realise and Hong Kong shows us they dont care about your capital.

Hong Kong officials shut out of the global banking system.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/30/business/hong-kong-carrie-lam-cash-intl-hnk/index.html

My friends on the trading floors of Hong Kong are all leaving , back to europe and australia. There is fear in the air..

[bull....]

lol couta come back i miss you talking crap to me

[Waltzing]

your friend Mr C is indeed here balance and sent me one of those silly notifications. I always consider those notifications to be pointless as i have only stated the facts.

The shorters are allowed to short and we never short. Time should correct this falling knife. The market can be brutal but my post is NOT a down ramping post. Look at the charts , anyone who bought recently above 16 was brave. But in the end its ones view against another.

If you think someones view is wrong then say so in public .

couta is back and sending notes behind the scenes. How much geo risk does there have to be before we express a view on this exposed stock.

Aussi sanctions as of today are hitting hard and fast, and those are the facts and its hitting the aussi dollar.

The geo risk and the aussi exports dollars at risk are being discussed every day on CNBC at 12 AM .

[bull....]

Chinese media threatens 'evil' Australia's warships in South China Sea

One of the Communist Party's chief mouthpieces has branded Australia "evil" and warned warships carrying out patrols in the South China Sea (https://www.afr.com/link/follow-20180101-p56f7l) are at risk of being attacked.


https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/chinese-media-threatens-evil-australia-s-warships-in-south-china-sea-20201201-p56jfb

[Waltzing]

balance your scaring the locals... :D ... :ohmy: if your in this stock big then you should have a hedge..

Well done for adding balance , balance. We never send notifications behind the scenes.

[BlackPeter]

not smearing anything... robot looks good at crushing... Ant under foot... NZ is the ANT!

making up facts? defaults on bonds were signalled to the market 2 years ago. the warning we made often.

The bond defaults are here now and getting bigger. Those default signal that the bank of china was instructed not to step in and pay them out.

No bond defaults? Pardon? Information on the likely default not broadcast loudly 2 years ago? They were heard on trading floors around the globe.

There are no smears when its a fact the bond market defaults were made public years ago on every major business channel. I did happen to have access to the trading floors in hong Kong until recently and everyone knew the defaults were coming.

many people dont like the facts because will hurt there positions. well thats a market.

thanks balance i agree, and i hope it doesnt happen. We like this stock and the lower it goes on no news the more you can profit from it.

Other than that i like the post and i agree with black peter but CCP are far more sinister than we realise and Hong Kong shows us they dont care about your capital.

Hong Kong officials shut out of the global banking system.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/30/business/hong-kong-carrie-lam-cash-intl-hnk/index.html

My friends on the trading floors of Hong Kong are all leaving , back to europe and australia. There is fear in the air..

Hmm - you do realize that Carrie Lams financial woes (assuming the article is correct) have nothing to do with China being evil and all with the US being a bully? So - how is this relevant for ATM?

[Waltzing]

ATM is potentially damaged from world politics or benefits from it. No global business operates in a political vacuum.

We think it was a 1 to 1 relationship. Actions of the CCP are directly related to the banking sanctions.

[Balance]

balance your scaring the locals... :D ... :ohmy: if your in this stock big then you should have a hedge..

Well done for adding balance , balance. We never send notifications behind the scenes.

Sorry but you lost me!

I thought it is fairly obvious why the Oz market is rather nervous about any stock exposed to potential China retaliation?

I have an Australian friend managing a Western hotel in Shanghai and he reckons their Penfolds Grange wine cellar has become even more prized overnight. Ozzie wine is now completely priced out of that market and he fears worse is to come on other fronts for Ozzie exporters.

[Waltzing]

sorry balance. very badly worded on my part.

Great post. Yes very obvious.

[carrom74]

These types of media coverage doesn’t help A2 even though it can claim it’s a NZ company.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/jacinda-ardern-comes-to-australia-s-aid-in-twitter-dispute-with-china-20201201-p56jgj.html

[Balance]

These types of media coverage doesn’t help A2 even though it can claim it’s a NZ company.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/jacinda-ardern-comes-to-australia-s-aid-in-twitter-dispute-with-china-20201201-p56jgj.html

Whatever happened to quiet diplomacy? There is a thing when dealing with almost all Asian cultures - giving face.

Very clear that has gone out the window fir whatever reason in recent times?

[Raz]

Apparently, you are not the only one. l follow this forum for quite some time, but have no desire to be involved mainly because of people like Beagle. I'm quite active on HC though

I would not just pick on Beagle, you will find a lot more fun and games on a thread like this one given the numbers so heavily invested. A number here are playing games and the level of PMs is certainly on the up. It just the way it is, I observe more these days as the agendas are clear and intrenched. Good to highlight again for the relatively new here...this thread need to find it shape again.

[Leftfield]

Food processor and A2 milk competitor in Australia, Freedom Foods under investigation after alleged accounting scandals. See story here. (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-01/freedom-foods-asic-investigation/12938424)

"Freedom reported, in October last year, that it earned a full-year profit of $11.6 million. But that figure has now been "restated" as a $145.8 million loss.
The cereal business also confessed its losses had since widened to $174.5 million in the last financial year (ending June 30, 2020)."

[winner69]

Food processor and A2 milk competitor in Australia, Freedom Foods under investigation after alleged accounting scandals. See story here. (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-01/freedom-foods-asic-investigation/12938424)

"Freedom reported, in October last year, that it earned a full-year profit of $11.6 million. But that figure has now been "restated" as a $145.8 million loss.
The cereal business also confessed its losses had since widened to $174.5 million in the last financial year (ending June 30, 2020)."




Careful how you say things leftie - quick read was Freedom AND A2 been fiddling their books

Too early for frights like that

[Leftfield]

Careful how you say things leftie - quick read was Freedom AND A2 been fiddling their books
Too early for frights like that

Crikey Winner apologies - don't want you choking on your morning cereals and A2 milk!

But yeah, it is a competitor to ATM so onwards and upwards for ATM.

[Balance]

ATM is potentially damaged from world politics or benefits from it. No global business operates in a political vacuum.

We think it was a 1 to 1 relationship. Actions of the CCP are directly related to the banking sanctions.

https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976517900/a2-milk-leads-sharemarket-decline.html

2 Milk Company declined 3.6 percent to $14.21 today, after a late surge in the NZX trading session yesterday saw the stock close higher in New Zealand than across the Tasman.

Australia’s tense relationship with China, which has imposed a number of barriers and tariffs on exports, is also weighing on investor sentiment as the company is heavily exposed to China.

The dual-listed stock fell sharply today as it caught up with its foreign exempt listing on the ASX, said Grant Williamson, director at Hamilton Hindin Greene.

[winner69]

Crikey Winner apologies - don't want you choking on your morning cereals and A2 milk!

But yeah, it is a competitor to ATM so onwards and upwards for ATM.

Should read more carefully eh ..... but Stuff has deepened the habit of skimming through things - esp since the big apology the other day

[Ruby]

https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976517900/a2-milk-leads-sharemarket-decline.html

The next sentence adds context...
"...“On the match yesterday, it did get bought up a wee bit, so it actually closed at quite a difference,” he said. “In Australia it is down 1.2 percent today, so it is really just playing catch up to that price today.”

[Getty]

food processor and a2 milk competitor in australia, freedom foods under investigation after alleged accounting scandals. see story here. (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-01/freedom-foods-asic-investigation/12938424)

"freedom reported, in october last year, that it earned a full-year profit of $11.6 million. But that figure has now been "restated" as a $145.8 million loss.
the cereal business also confessed its losses had since widened to $174.5 million in the last financial year (ending june 30, 2020)."




"wide"!!!!

[Balance]

https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976517900/a2-milk-leads-sharemarket-decline.html

The next sentence adds context...
"...“On the match yesterday, it did get bought up a wee bit, so it actually closed at quite a difference,” he said. “In Australia it is down 1.2 percent today, so it is really just playing catch up to that price today.”

Yup - playing catch up with the sp drop yesterday with the ASX drop on Monday.

Simplistically, ATM's sp should recover if the geopolitical & trade tensions between Oz & China abate and dissipate.

Question - how likely is that?

Whatever happened to quiet diplomacy?

[Davexl]

Article from our very own Anne-Marie Brady - might be somewhat reassuring (On Geo-Political Risk blog also)

China is humiliating Australia as an example to others - but the bullying won't last

https://www.smh.com.au/national/china-is-humiliating-australia-as-an-example-to-others-but-the-bullying-won-t-last-20201201-p56jfz.html

Nice big buyer of 83000 odd shares at $14.18 also for backstop...

[tomm]

BROKERS UPDATE REGARDING A2M

https://www.fnarena.com/index.php/search/?searchkeyword=a2m

Below is each of the above brokerage/analyst content detail

Morgans (Add recommendation; SP target $17.28)
https://www.morgans.com.au/Blog/2020/November/The-A2-Milk-Company-Uncertainty-could-overhang

Macquarie (Outperform recommendation; SP $17.95)
https://www.f**l.com.au/2020/11/22/top-brokers-name-3-asx-shares-to-buy-next-week-22-november-2020/ (https://www.%2A%2A%2A%2A%2A%2A%2A%2A.au/2020/11/22/top-brokers-name-3-asx-shares-to-buy-next-week-22-november-2020/)
"....Macquarie, its analysts have retained their outperform rating and $17.95 price target on this infant formula and fresh milk company’s shares. This follows the release of an update at its annual general meeting which reiterated its guidance for FY 2021. While the broker notes that a2 Milk Company will require a huge second half and that there’s still a lot of uncertainty in the daigou channel, it remains positive on the company’s medium term growth prospects"


(think UBS stuff was posted earlier by werdplayer? ignore if this is a repeat)
UBS (Buy recommendation; SP target $20.50)
https://www.sh*recafe.com.au/2020/11/19/a2m-ubs-rates-the-stock-as-buy-5/ (https://www.%2A%2A%2A%2A%2A%2A%2A%2A%2A.com.au/2020/11/19/a2m-ubs-rates-the-stock-as-buy-5/)
Credit Suisse (Buy recommendation; SP target ?)
- I could not find any publicly available analyst comments/SP target price; anyone else can find it?

Finally,
https://www.msn.com/en-au/money/stockdetails/analysis/asx-a2m/fi-aa45a2
*Credit Suisse data does feed into MSN Money finance tables, so whatever their price target is, its included in 12mth SP target $19.17 with EPS estimate of 0.53

[LEMON]

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2020/12/1/australia-china-tensions-explained-in-500-words

[LEMON]

https://www.afr.com/companies/manufacturing/a2-milk-chair-calls-escalating-tensions-with-china-regrettable-20201117-p56ffs

(November 18th)

Apologise if this has already been shared, haven't noticed it on the forum myself.

[LEMON]

https://www.afr.com/companies/manufacturing/freedom-foods-protected-by-strong-china-ties-gunner-20201202-p56ju6

Freedoms foods think they're protected during this trade war with strong links to Chinese agriculture giants.

A2M also has the same ties and are technically an NZ company.
The only disruption is the diagou channel linked to the OZ vs China trade war.

[Balance]

Real shame that intransigience has become the order of the play with Australia & China.

Hang on tight - could be a rough ride for quite a while yet until one or the other party buckle under.


https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2020/12/1/australia-china-tensions-explained-in-500-words

Writing in The Interpreter last month, Henry Storey, an Australian analyst, said if Australia wants to resolve the dispute, it may need to apologise for calling for the COVID-19 inquiry, distance itself from the Quad and promise to respect China’s core interests.

But that appears unlikely.

Morrison, the Australian prime minister, signalled Australia will not reverse its China policy after the Chinese embassy shared a list of its grievances with the Australian media.


“I can assure you, we will always be Australia, act in our interests and in accordance with our values,” he told the Seven Network.

[bull....]

Two MPs criticise China's 'coercive diplomacy' amid widening Australia stoush

O’Connor told Stuff that during his time chairing the select committee, he learned of China’s foreign interference attempts, intimidation of Chinese nationals in New Zealand, and “leaking” of New Zealand’s information and research to China. This, he said “set off the alarm bells”.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/123574032/two-mps-criticise-chinas-coercive-diplomacy-amid-widening-australia-stoush

[winner69]

Two MPs criticise China's 'coercive diplomacy' amid widening Australia stoush

O’Connor told Stuff that during his time chairing the select committee, he learned of China’s foreign interference attempts, intimidation of Chinese nationals in New Zealand, and “leaking” of New Zealand’s information and research to China. This, he said “set off the alarm bells”.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/123574032/two-mps-criticise-chinas-coercive-diplomacy-amid-widening-australia-stoush


Good on em

Pity PM isn’t so forthright

[Balance]

Two MPs criticise China's 'coercive diplomacy' amid widening Australia stoush

O’Connor told Stuff that during his time chairing the select committee, he learned of China’s foreign interference attempts, intimidation of Chinese nationals in New Zealand, and “leaking” of New Zealand’s information and research to China. This, he said “set off the alarm bells”.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/123574032/two-mps-criticise-chinas-coercive-diplomacy-amid-widening-australia-stoush


Right way to take on and criticise China - via MPs letting off steam. China will take little notice.

Wrong way to take on China - at a government level & blindly following the fornicating Trump in his failed trade war & containment attempts with China. Huawei comes to mind.

[Balance]

https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/chinas-global-times-publishes-new-cartoon-mocking-australias-defence-force-as-feud-escalates/news-story/e636a5df60d840ff6ff9fa8ca15f9250

Another mocking cartoon of Australia on China’s state media.

Next move - Australia.

Hope Australia swallows hard and practice quiet diplomacy. Any further escalation will result in more entrenched intransigence.

Example of quiet diplomacy : https://www.news.com.au/national/victoria/politics/belt-and-road-initiative-deal-daniel-andrews-cant-back-out-of/news-story/a73a64530e76ccdc178817e01d01cdc1

[winner69]

https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/chinas-global-times-publishes-new-cartoon-mocking-australias-defence-force-as-feud-escalates/news-story/e636a5df60d840ff6ff9fa8ca15f9250

Another mocking cartoon of Australia on China’s state media.

Next move - Australia.

Hope Australia swallows hard and practice quiet diplomacy. Any further escalation will result in more entrenched intransigence.

Example of quiet diplomacy : https://www.news.com.au/national/victoria/politics/belt-and-road-initiative-deal-daniel-andrews-cant-back-out-of/news-story/a73a64530e76ccdc178817e01d01cdc1

ScMo looks so good when he’s angry ;)

[Balance]

ScMo looks so good when he’s angry ;)

Plays well to the Aussie audience.

Not good for the exporters!

[bull....]

Right way to take on and criticise China - via MPs letting off steam. China will take little notice.

Wrong way to take on China - at a government level & blindly following the fornicating Trump in his failed trade war & containment attempts with China. Huawei comes to mind.

we should be careful not to upset china , we do not want re-education camps in NZ .... what would happen to the treaty of waitangi

[Getty]

the treaty of Waitangi would be treated to a tangi

[tomm]

Morgans (Add recommendation; SP target $17.28)

Macquarie (Outperform recommendation; SP $17.95)

UBS (Buy recommendation; SP target $20.50)

a2 Milk has kept its guidance intact for revenue in the first-half to be $725-$77m along with revenue for the full year to be between $1.80-$1.90bn.

[bull....]

lets go boys looks like it wants to test the lows from early november 13 asx

[Ggcc]

lets go boys looks like it wants to test the lows from early november 13 asx
Are you shorting or buying? Any lower and I will be tempted to buy more. Although I won’t let A2 be more than 25% of portfolio

[Balance]

Are you shorting or buying? Any lower and I will be tempted to buy more. Although I won’t let A2 be more than 25% of portfolio

You should have figured bull.... out by now.

[MauroNZ]

Man not long ago I thought my $14.8 would have been hard to get, well a good lesson learned is that we can always be wrong :).

[Getty]

And so can the brokers who made ATM a top 5 pick for 2020.

Nevertheless, a man who never made a mistake, never made anything.

[Lion_graf]

With what's come out in the news about kiwi MPs getting involved in the bullying of Australia by China I can see why we see a further dip. I'm topping up. I don't think we will see it this low again unless China make a bold call on dairy tariffs which I dont believe will happen given the link they have with chinese ownership of farms here in NZ

[ratkin]

https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/chinas-global-times-publishes-new-cartoon-mocking-australias-defence-force-as-feud-escalates/news-story/e636a5df60d840ff6ff9fa8ca15f9250

Another mocking cartoon of Australia on China’s state media.



Pretty good cartoon tbf although could be directed at any country and would not be wrong.

[Balance]

With what's come out in the news about kiwi MPs getting involved in the bullying of Australia by China I can see why we see a further dip. I'm topping up. I don't think we will see it this low again unless China make a bold call on dairy tariffs which I dont believe will happen given the link they have with chinese ownership of farms here in NZ

A note of caution - China can stop the daigou trade from Australia altogether.

[ratkin]

Good on em

Pity PM isn’t so forthright

Have to be careful not to bite the hand that feeds you

[Balance]

Pretty good cartoon tbf although could be directed at any country and would not be wrong.

It is intended to aggravate and it is good that Oz has not taken the bait so far.

[bull....]

Made in China,’ Once a Badge of Derision, Finds New Fans—in China


3 December 2020, 10:00 GMT+13

In 2008 at least six babies died and 300,000 fell ill after drinking made-in-China infant formula tainted with toxic chemicals. In response, many Chinese parents embraced foreign brands, catapulting the likes of Danone SA (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BN:FP)’s Aptamil and Nestlé SA’ (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NESN:SW)s Illuma to the top of the market. Yet for the past two years, the leading formula brand in China has been made by China Feihe Ltd. (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/6186:HK), a Beijing company that emphasizes its local roots rather than seeking to obscure them.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-02/coronavirus-is-making-chinese-brands-stronger-in-china?srnd=premium-asia

[tomm]

Made in China,’ Once a Badge of Derision, Finds New Fans—in China


3 December 2020, 10:00 GMT+13

In 2008 at least six babies died and 300,000 fell ill after drinking made-in-China infant formula tainted with toxic chemicals. In response, many Chinese parents embraced foreign brands, catapulting the likes of Danone SA (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BN:FP)’s Aptamil and Nestlé SA’ (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NESN:SW)s Illuma to the top of the market. Yet for the past two years, the leading formula brand in China has been made by China Feihe Ltd. (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/6186:HK), a Beijing company that emphasizes its local roots rather than seeking to obscure them.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-02/coronavirus-is-making-chinese-brands-stronger-in-china?srnd=premium-asia

The first tranche of coronavirus vaccine is due to be rolled out in the UK next week with 800,000 doses going to those most at risk in the community.
Looking promising for the new entrance to recovery.

[tomm]

I am sure the new CEO will work his way up but with cautious mentions.

Moving to our outlook for FY21.At the end of September, we advised of challenging market dynamics that were being experienced
We are maintaining guidance as advised in September:
‒ We expect Group revenue for 1H21 of $725 million to $775 million;
‒ Group revenue for FY21 of $1.80 billion to $1.90 billion; and‒ FY21 EBITDA margin for FY21 in the order of 31%.

[Ggcc]

I can smell a Chinese offer coming for A2 milk in the foreseeable future if the price keeps dropping. This happened to Bellamy. ATM will also have an entry to the US. Let’s see what will happen...........

[bull....]

I can smell a Chinese offer coming for A2 milk in the foreseeable future if the price keeps dropping. This happened to Bellamy. ATM will also have an entry to the US. Let’s see what will happen...........

if china buy a2 then US wont let them into US. so unlikely it will happen

[Cyclical]

if china buy a2 then US wont let them into US. so unlikely it will happen

That part of the business isn't doing much anyway... If such a takeover were to happen, I'd expect the primary focus would be on the huge Chinese domestic market with most ideas of global expansion being parked for a period. Just my 2C.

[Balance]

I can smell a Chinese offer coming for A2 milk in the foreseeable future if the price keeps dropping. This happened to Bellamy. ATM will also have an entry to the US. Let’s see what will happen...........

A distinct possibility if ATM sp drops below $10.00.

[DownTownJr]

Welp, I'll be lining up some cash to potentially purchase some more shares next week (still relatively light on ATM shares) my average buy in is $14.45, so down a little.

[Balance]

https://www.news.com.au/world/pacific/china-lays-into-nz-pm-jacinda-ardern-for-supporting-australia/news-story/7f82a19b69e7cb2fce017c7d21922792

Hope Cindy closes her big mouth from hereon in.

Quiet diplomacy.

[dreamcatcher]

If NZ made a2 IF enters America or global it could be from a separate peeled off company from ATM .......excellent reward for faithful holders

Wonder what new shares would be worth

[bull....]

https://www.news.com.au/world/pacific/china-lays-into-nz-pm-jacinda-ardern-for-supporting-australia/news-story/7f82a19b69e7cb2fce017c7d21922792

Hope Cindy closes her big mouth from hereon in.

Quiet diplomacy.


a2 be hammered tomorrow?

actually the article you posted was first written by global times of china on the first of dec

Kiwis bleat like Aussie sheep but don’t condemn Afghan killings


https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1208675.shtml

[dreamcatcher]

a2 be hammered tomorrow?

actually the article you posted was first written by global times of china on the first of dec

Kiwis bleat like Aussie sheep but don’t condemn Afghan killings


https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1208675.shtml

Why would a2 "be hammered tomorrow" is UBS ADDING more to their bloated position ? or are Chinese holders selling ?

[Balance]

a2 be hammered tomorrow?

actually the article you posted was first written by global times of china on the first of dec

Kiwis bleat like Aussie sheep but don’t condemn Afghan killings


https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1208675.shtml

Don’t think so.

It’s warning shot at Cindy and there has been no further ‘incendiary’ comment from her.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/jacinda-ardern-says-nz-not-taking-sides-in-china-australia-feud/CY4U4XASSZ6ORTJ264PJA3AZCI/

Paywalled

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is stepping back from the ongoing China-Australia feud, saying New Zealand has not taken sides.

Yesterday she said New Zealand had raised concerns with China over its use of a doctored image on Twitter, but today she said the same thing would have happened if Australia had done the same thing.

"We've made the point we've wanted to make and we'll be leaving it at that."

[Balance]

It’s hell of a pity that Australian exporters are getting hammered by the trade sanctions imposed by China - especially when you consider why & who ScoMo & the Australian government have been backing - Fornicator Trump.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9011833/President-Donald-Trump-cuts-46-minute-solo-White-House-video-claiming-election-fraud-Facebook.html

After that speech, it may be that even ScoMo has finally woken up that he should stop supporting & blindly following the US in the trade war & sanctions imposed on China by the nincompoop & loony loser.

It has gone quiet today on the ScoMo front - realisation must be setting in that he has also been duped by the Fornicator.

My pick is that the worse is behind for ATM re the China concern as of today.

[Waltzing]

Our understanding is Biden has no plans to drop the trade war position from the get go.

And bond defaults in china are set to prehaps increase.


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/03/china-government-bonds-might-be-a-safer-bet-as-debt-defaults-look-set-to-rise.html

ATM isnt IN or OUT of the firing line yet. It sell off so far might simple be a little bit of side swipe from the aussi smash up.

Chinas heavy handed approach to Hong Kong does imply capital is not as important as ideology. The central committee wont be interested in farming partnership capital fall out in NZ.

[Cyclical]

Chinas heavy handed approach to Hong Kong does imply capital is not as important as ideology. The central committee wont be interested in farming partnership capital fall out in NZ.

Good and easily forgotten point.

[Balance]

Good and easily forgotten point.

HK is not critical to China anymore from an economic point of view. Its role as an economic hub & financial centre has been superseded by Shanghai & Shenzhen.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/03/opinion/hong-kong-protest.html

That’s why China has no qualms about crushing HK.

[dreamcatcher]

(https://themarketherald.com.au/australia-drums-up-more-support-as-chinese-relations-crumble-2020-12-03/)Jake Sullivan one of Joe Biden's senior advisers had a lot more to say..........

[Waltzing]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/18/these-charts-show-why-hong-kong-is-important-to-china.html

[Cyclical]

HK is not critical to China anymore from an economic point of view. Its role as an economic hub & financial centre has been superseded by Shanghai & Shenzhen.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/03/opinion/hong-kong-protest.html

That’s why China has no qualms about crushing HK.
I'm not going to argue with you there, but regardless, the financial hit to China from "crushing" HK, economic hub / financial centre or otherwise, is surely going to make any such crushing of ATM look minuscule in comparison. So sinlgescul's point that ATM's commercial entanglement with Chinese interests likely means jack when stacked up against ideology likely holds true, IMHO.

[steveb]

Do the chinese not know that ATM is a kiwi company?

[BlackPeter]

a2 be hammered tomorrow?

actually the article you posted was first written by global times of china on the first of dec

Kiwis bleat like Aussie sheep but don’t condemn Afghan killings


https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1208675.shtml

Cheers for the link. Article is worthwhile to read and digest. A bit off topic, but the article conveys a quite interesting (and I think quite understandable) perspective ... :


Quite a few Westerners are living in their own world. They believe that people from other parts of the globe are merely bystanders. They feel uncomfortable when bystanders ask them to do certain things. They will not consider whether such a demand is reasonable or not. They may admit their mistakes on their own, but they won't allow others to point out their mistakes.

They will always stick to such attitudes of superiority, even if the West is declining with decreasing influence.

However, those Westerners need wake up to the fact that developing countries, represented by China, can no longer tolerate their double standards, remain silent or do nothing. The West should take the latest incident as an alarm bell - when they smear other countries with baseless accusations, why can't other countries criticize the West or make well-intentioned suggestions for their misdeeds?

A good reminder that westerners are not the navel of the world ... and an interesting perspective how the others might see us and our actions.

Food for thought - maybe we should walk from time to time in their shoes before we judge over them?

[see weed]

Cheers for the link. Article is worthwhile to read and digest. A bit off topic, but the article conveys a quite interesting (and I think quite understandable) perspective ... :



A good reminder that westerners are not the navel of the world ... and an interesting perspective how the others might see us and our actions.

Food for thought - maybe we should walk from time to time in their shoes before we judge over them?
Sounds like all those easterners want to be, and turning into westerners pretty fast. Don't forget the further east you go, the more likely you will become west:).

[causecelebre]

Sounds like all those easterners want to be, and turning into westerners pretty fast. Don't forget the further east you go, the more likely you will become west:).

Don't know if you are being ironic Seaweed but I think your comment is the poster child for point the article was making

[xp04]

Do the chinese not know that ATM is a kiwi company?

Chinese do know, some people on this forum don’t. This is why Chinese government out of all problems in the world put the idea of crushing atm on top of the pile.

[LEMON]

We "westerners" were quick to become just like our eastern counterparts not so many years ago, the eastern countries outperformed the west in technology, education and religion for centuries but in the good old western fashion, we robbed them of it and took it for ourselves.
Bit of a low bar to assume others want to be us when our core fundamentals are similar or once were of the the east.

[Balance]

Don't know if you are being ironic Seaweed but I think your comment is the poster child for point the article was making

Think he has been eating too much seaweed & sweet and sour?

[Balance]

Chinese do know, some people on this forum don’t. This is why Chinese government out of all problems in the world put the idea of crushing atm on top of the pile.

Daigou?

That's an Aussie thing only?

[Waltzing]

Off topic : "smear other countries with baseless accusations"

Pravda got nothing on China propaganda...

[see weed]

Don't know if you are being ironic Seaweed but I think your comment is the poster child for point the article was making
I was an easterner, but are now a happy westerner. One day we will all be westerners and then will have to talk about the southerners.;)

[Balance]

Off topic : "smear other countries with baseless accusations"

Pravda got nothing on China propaganda...

WOMD? Hundreds of thousands dead directly as a result of Western propaganda.

Trump's utterances & propaganda? Hundreds and thousands dead as well.

[tomm]

Got my parcel in at $13.70 this morning.

[xp04]

Daigou?

That's an Aussie thing only?

Not sure I follow your questions. Did I mentioned daigou or Aussie?

[jonu]

WOMD? Hundreds of thousands dead directly as a result of Western propaganda.

Trump's utterances & propaganda? Hundreds and thousands dead as well.

I don't think anyone would claim the West is perfect. Millions are risking death and hardship to get to Western Europe and to the US. Into China and Russia? Not so much. For good reason.

[tomm]

I don't think anyone would claim the West is perfect. Millions are risking death and hardship to get to Western Europe and to the US. Into China and Russia? Not so much. For good reason.
Wrong Thread with speculations.

I got my parcel ATM this morning at $13.70

[bull....]

heres latest research from bell potter on a2

they are raising some new headwinds in the research report

http://www2.aspecthuntley.com.au/pdf/bellpotter/companyprofile/today/A2M_cp.pdf

[Waltzing]

Off Topic:

Yes its a shame the World is gone now.. Hearst against the "World".

" In context of propaganda - The World was published by Pulitzer"

"Hearst learnt everything he knew before Pravda"

Heasrt ran news papers that would put Fox news to shame and im sure the world learnt what
propaganda really was McCarthy and Trump are just follow me's.

Thanks Balance i agree but i think Hearst got there long before Trump.


Yes this post got another red one from Mac Duffy or who ever.

[tomm]

heres latest research from bell potter on a2

they are raising some new headwinds in the research report

http://www2.aspecthuntley.com.au/pdf/bellpotter/companyprofile/today/A2M_cp.pdf
https://www.msn.com/en-au/money/stockdetails/analysis/asx-a2m/fi-aa45a2

Analyst Recommendation
3/12/2020

Buy


[*=left]1-year Price Target 19.17



[*=left]Analysts 6



[*=left]EPS Estimate 0.53

[sb9]

https://www.msn.com/en-au/money/stockdetails/analysis/asx-a2m/fi-aa45a2

Analyst Recommendation
3/12/2020

Buy


[*=left]1-year Price Target 19.17



[*=left]Analysts 6



[*=left]EPS Estimate 0.53






Don't upset bull with positive posts like this, he's working hard with his short position, When he closes that, he'll be ramping it up with long position.

[tomm]

Don't upset bull with positive posts like this, he's working hard with his short position, When he closes that, he'll be ramping it up with long position.
Those of mine are facts, not speculations. Thanks to speculations I got the ATM's entrance SP at this price.
With this Sp for A2M atm , can't go wrong , just making money ;)

[see weed]

heres latest research from bell potter on a2

they are raising some new headwinds in the research report

http://www2.aspecthuntley.com.au/pdf/bellpotter/companyprofile/today/A2M_cp.pdf
Sourced from Morningstar.

[sb9]

Those of mine are facts, not speculations. Thanks to speculations I got the ATM's entrance SP at this price.
With this Sp for A2M atm , can't go wrong , just making money ;)

For sure, I'm ready with my funds to jump on board for a top up. Just waiting to see what our Aussies friends have got in store with the their Friday shenanigans...:eek2:

[tomm]

For sure, I'm ready with my funds to jump on board for a top up. Just waiting to see what our Aussies friends have got in store with the their Friday shenanigans...:eek2:
This stock is not good for the faint hearted , unless you have a steel heart :p

[Waltzing]

Balance, i do think that Hearst got there long before Trump and McCarthy...perhaps they studied him.

If anything more goes south in the south china sea this stock could be a buy at under 10. Or the Aussi double down.

I hope this post makes sense as i get pinged in red for making non sense by readers of the great bard such as McDuff. Lead on .....

[tomm]

Balance, i do think that Hearst got there long before Trump and McCarthy...perhaps they studied him.

If anything more goes south in the south china sea this stock could be a buy at under 10. Or the Aussi double down.
https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=a2m
The Shorters are at 7.98% for this stock , almost all time high .

[sb9]

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=a2m
The Shorters are at 7.98% for this stock , almost all time high .

I'm pretty they did go as high as 9% at one time when Jayne was in charge and at that time it was also in top 10 most shorted list.

[tomm]

I'm pretty they did go as high as 9% at one time when Jayne was in charge and at that time it was also in top 10 most shorted list.
Someone,.. do something about these shorters :mad ;:

[sb9]

Someone,.. do something about these shorters :mad ;:

I have no issues with shorters, it brings a good balance to trading and keeps companies in check.

[tomm]

I have no issues with shorters, it brings a good balance to trading and keeps companies in check.
But not such high percentage . The Sp will get volatile. Imaging when these shorters have to buy back all 7.98% , where will the Sp go ???

[sb9]

But not such high percentage . The Sp will get volatile. Imaging when these shorters have to buy back all 7.98% , where will the Sp go ???

Its all relative to expectations of company's future performance from different viewpoints.

[Waltzing]

"The Shorters are at 7.98% for this stock , almost all time high ."

well Tomm im surprised it got down to here but perhaps it the off shore investors that drive the price here?

We havnt checked the register .

[tomm]

1305
7
46,788
gone

[tomm]

Its all relative to expectations of company's future performance from different viewpoints.
Exactly and the Sp will correct itself in due time.

[Waltzing]

Balance this going through today i think..

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/they-can-be-cancelled-commonwealth-to-review-states-overseas-agreements-20200826-p55pmt.html

[tomm]

"The Shorters are at 7.98% for this stock , almost all time high ."

well Tomm im surprised it got down to here but perhaps it the off shore investors that drive the price here?

We havnt checked the register .



Top 20 shareholders. They hold 74.91% of all shares


Name

Shares

Capital



Hsbc Custody Nominees (Australia) Limited

141,253,096

19.09%



Hsbc Nominees (New Zealand) Limited

54,221,466

7.33%



Citibank Nominees (Nz) Ltd

47,576,766

6.43%



Jpmorgan Chase Bank

47,297,005

6.39%



Hsbc Nominees (New Zealand ) Limited

39,694,328

5.37%



J.P. Morgan Nominees Australia Pty Limited

38,412,332

5.19%



Citicorp Nominees Pty Limited

28,568,198

3.86%



Accident Compensation Corporation

19,364,224

2.62%



Tea Custodians Limited

19,261,687

2.60%



National Nominees Limited

18,104,499

2.45%



Citicorp Nominees Pty Limited I

13,769,882

1.86%



Cogent Nominees Limited

13,593,277

1.84%



New Zealand Superannuation Fund Nominees Limited

12,611,261

1.70%



Bnp Paribas Nominees (Nz) Limited

10,923,014

1.48%



Hsbc Custody Nominees (Australia) Limited I

10,739,171

1.45%



National Nominees New Zealand Limited

9,825,434

1.33%



Bnp Paribas Nominees Pty Limited

9,633,819

1.30%



Premier Nominees Limited

8,653,719

1.17%



Bnp Paribas Noms Pty Ltd

5,813,228

0.79%



Fnz Custodians Limited

4,865,707

0.66%



All other shareholders

25.09 %

[Leftfield]

mmmm disappointed that my name isn't in the Top 20 :(.

(ps Didn't see Couta there either.)

[tomm]

mmmm disappointed that my name isn't in the Top 20 :(.

(ps Didn't see Couta there either.)
Hahahahah....this one cracked me ..... hahahah :eek2:



Premier Nominees Limited
8,653,719
1.17%


Bnp Paribas Noms Pty Ltd
5,813,228
0.79%


Fnz Custodians Limited
4,865,707
0.66%


Left field
0.00000000009 %

[Leftfield]

Thanks Tomm...... I feel much better now..... even if a little bit under reported. lol.

[YoungBull]

Aussies not as pessimistic today.

[tomm]

Thanks Tomm...... I feel much better now..... even if a little bit under reported. lol.
You are in top 25 :t_up:

[tomm]

Aussies not as pessimistic today.
https://www.msn.com/en-au/money/stoc...-a2m/fi-aa45a2 (https://www.msn.com/en-au/money/stockdetails/analysis/asx-a2m/fi-aa45a2)

Analyst Recommendation
3/12/2020

Buy



[*=left]1-year Price Target 19.17





[*=left]Analysts 6





[*=left]EPS Estimate 0.53

[Balance]

It has gone quiet today on the ScoMo front - realisation must be setting in that he has also been duped by the Fornicator.

My pick is that the worse is behind for ATM re the China concern as of today.

As long as ScoMo keeps his cool and mouth shut, ATM should continue to recover.

[tomm]

https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2020/11/19/a2m-ubs-rates-the-stock-as-buy-5

A2M – UBS rates the stock as Buy

By Broker News | More Articles by Broker News (https://www.sharecafe.com.au/author/broker-news/)
RELATED COMPANIESTHE A2 MILK COMPANY LIMITED (https://www.sharecafe.com.au/company/the-a2-milk-company-limited/)

a2 Milk has kept its guidance intact for revenue in the first-half to be $725-$77m along with an FY21 revenue of $1.80-$1.90bn.
Nevertheless, UBS believes risks to be skewed to the downside, especially when noting the uncertainty around the improvement in the daigou channel in the second half.
The first half of the year was challenging due to the soft demand for ANZ infant formula sales via daigou channels. UBS notes the corporate daigou channel, supported by a new incentive programme, shows some early signs of improvement.
While the company’s cross-border e-commerce (CBEC) market share remains near record levels, the broker believes there is limited demand shift from the daigou channels.
Buy rating and NZ$20.50 target retained.
Sector: Food, Beverage & Tobacco.
Current Price is $13.98. Target price not assessed.

ALL IN $AUD

[tomm]

A2M – Macquarie rates the stock as Outperform

By Broker News | More Articles by Broker News (https://www.sharecafe.com.au/author/broker-news/)
RELATED COMPANIESTHE A2 MILK COMPANY LIMITED (https://www.sharecafe.com.au/company/the-a2-milk-company-limited/)

a2 Milk provided solid revenue guidance and margin upgrades at its AGM, thanks to price increases, product launches and benefits from the Synlait Milk ((SM1)) contract renegotiation. Improved disclosure addressed a number of market concerns, Macquarie notes.
The broker has made only minor forecast adjustments but has lifted its target to $16.20 from $15.70. Outperform retained.
https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2019/11/20/a2m-macquarie-rates-the-stock-as-outperform-3
Target price is $16.20.Current Price is $13.37. Difference: $2.83 – (brackets indicate current price is over target). If A2M meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).

ALL IN AUD.

[tomm]

https://stocklight.com/stocks/au/consumer-staples/asx-a2m/the-a2-milk?media_id=98430

A2 Milk Company Ltd (ASX: A2M)

According to a note out of the Macquarie equities desk, its analysts have retained their outperform rating and $21.25 price target on this infant formula company's shares. The broker notes that a2 Milk Company is looking to acquire a 75% stake in Mataura Valley Milk. It sees value in its plans and believes it could strengthen its relationship with China. I think Macquarie is spot on and would be a buyer of a2 Milk Company's shares for the long term.

[Joshuatree]

Got back in wed after a lengthy spell out. Great to join you top 25'vers .;)

[tomm]

Got back in wed after a lengthy spell out. Great to join you top 25'vers .;)

:t_up: You are one of the A2M's Steel Heart Members :t_up:

[BlackPeter]

So far promising volumes - after three hours of Ossi trading (half a trading day) already 2/3 of the average daily volume traded and healthy price motion.

I reccon todays good news from Fonterra might help as well.

Is this the beginning of some serious short-sizzling? Do shorters really want to keep their deals open over the weekend? I am wondering whether the rest of the day might become interesting ...

[tomm]

So far promising volumes - after three hours of Ossi trading (half a trading day) already 2/3 of the average daily volume traded and healthy price motion.

I reccon todays good news from Fonterra might help as well.

Is this the beginning of some serious short-sizzling? Do shorters really want to keep their deals open over the weekend? I am wondering whether the rest of the day might become interesting ...
If you study the chart, its the time for the shorters to retreat.

[Waltzing]

Let hope the rally lasts.. and hope your right Tomm.

NZX needs it.

Now i will try to post something that makes some sense not jabberwocky Jibberish...lead on MacDuff....

For those who havnt read the history of the world and the battle of the news papers in the US its worth a read...

nothing much changes in over century...

not to dissimilar to the whole China, US - Aussi saga...

[sb9]

If you study the chart, its the time for the shorters to retreat.

What will set cat among pigeons is if one of the executive team buys a decent stake on market, especially if its Peter Nathan...

[MauroNZ]

Hahahahah....this one cracked me ..... hahahah :eek2:



Premier Nominees Limited
8,653,719
1.17%


Bnp Paribas Noms Pty Ltd
5,813,228
0.79%


Fnz Custodians Limited
4,865,707
0.66%


Left field
0.00000000009 %




Epic! I wonder if it is an LLC?

[Gregnz]

Why are BlackRock, Vanguard and Mitsubishi not on those lists of substantial holders? After all they are some of the largest holders..

[macduffy]

Because the lists are of registered holders, not beneficial owners. Blackrock etc shares held by nominees.

[Gregnz]

Because the lists are of registered holders, not beneficial owners. Blackrock etc shares held by nominees.

I see, thanks.

[winner69]

At least A2 haven’t been attacked by those ‘short and distort’ rogues yet

If they did get targeted then we’d know what shorting really can do.

[Leftfield]

At least A2 haven’t been attacked by those ‘short and distort’ rogues yet
If they did get targeted then we’d know what shorting really can do.

Whether ATM's SP has been manipulated by 'short and distort' institutions is a moot point.

Anyways it is good to see that such actions are attracting more attention and perhaps review by ASX regulators.

Here's a link to the SMH recent article on such actions claiming that they are costing investors $billions. See here. (https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/caught-in-a-bear-trap-how-short-and-distort-attacks-are-costing-australian-investors-billions-20201204-p56ksl.html)

[winner69]

Been no ‘analyst’ reports published as to how A2 numbers are not reliable and the future is bleak ...that would be a real ‘distort’ report.

[LEMON]

I think we can expect to see the $14 range until another positive announcement or the HYR till we see any movement again in the SP.
Doesn't seem to be moving much over the past few days
Then again a bad report could see A2 drop an even lower do we think?

A2 still has a healthy back pocket, wonder what they plan to spend that money on, advertisement, new products?

[tomm]

I think we can expect to see the $14 range until another positive announcement or the HYR till we see any movement again in the SP.
Doesn't seem to be moving much over the past few days
Then again a bad report could see A2 drop an even lower do we think?

A2 still has a healthy back pocket, wonder what they plan to spend that money on, advertisement, new products?
They are a marketing business and yes they are expanding themselves into the world. They marketing their products heavily into China , Usa ...
As the Management and the Board indicated at the last guidance , the only problem they had was the daigou chanel and they will still match and forward the forcast earning.
I am sure they had a record of over delivery.
Very looking at above $15/share before Christmas.

[Waltzing]

Just cant seem to kick up. More stuff happening in HK. Just shows that the CCP doesnt know nor care about capital flight and my friends who have left say they have no plans to return to the trading floors in Hong Kong. These are mostly australians who have now left. Singapore is now seen as a safe haven in the political storm. If the local vaccine works in china then other china products will get a boost. It certainly looks a buy if the market is not effected and it looks like AUS and NZ govt will be careful.

[Biscuit]

Just cant seem to kick up. More stuff happening in HK. Just shows that the CCP doesnt know nor care about capital flight and my friends who have left say they have no plans to return to the trading floors in Hong Kong. These are mostly australians who have now left. Singapore is now seen as a safe haven in the political storm. If the local vaccine works in china then other china products will get a boost. It certainly looks a buy if the market is not effected and it looks like AUS and NZ govt will be careful.

Bit late for the AUS govt to be careful, Jabberwocky.

[Waltzing]

"Bit late for the AUS govt to be careful"

yes ! but it has perhaps offered a buying op. If the consumer ignore central command. Is there a buy china campaign on ?

[Biscuit]

...... Is there a buy china campaign on ?

Certainly not in Australia, Jabberwocky.

[Waltzing]

Good point Biscuit but where do you buy local goods... everything is , almost everything has made in china on it... Is there a central command in china for the locals to buy local?

[Biscuit]

..... Is there a central command in china for the locals to buy local?

It's natural evolution, Jabberwocky. First they make cheap crap, that silly people buy because it is cheap; then, as they get better at quality control, more people want to buy it because it is cheap but the quality is ok; then the price goes up to match the better quality and everyone is briefly happy; then it gets trendy, the price goes up and only silly people buy it.

[tomm]

It's natural evolution, Jabberwocky. First they make cheap crap, that silly people buy because it is cheap; then, as they get better at quality control, more people want to buy it because it is cheap but the quality is ok; then the price goes up to match the better quality and everyone is briefly happy; then it gets trendy, the price goes up and only silly people buy it.
Exactly and the Prime great people will just trust the A2Milk brand from New Zealand for their babies.

[Waltzing]

actual data is what we need.. soon market update..

[Balance]

https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/experts-reveal-next-industries-that-could-be-slapped-with-chinese-tariffs-as-trade-war-escalates/news-story/138b27b6829e36d4d00ad02026f8c717

Honey, dairy, fruit and pharmaceuticals potentially on China’s hit list if Australia continues to toe blindly the US line.

[xp04]

https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/experts-reveal-next-industries-that-could-be-slapped-with-chinese-tariffs-as-trade-war-escalates/news-story/138b27b6829e36d4d00ad02026f8c717

Honey, dairy, fruit and pharmaceuticals potentially on China’s hit list if Australia continues to toe blindly the US line.

I am fascinated by how in the modern world someone's opinion is presented as news

[Balance]

I am fascinated by how in the modern world someone's opinion is presented as news

It is obviously an opinion piece and meant to be read as such - one person’s assessment of how other sectors in Oz could get hit if the spat with China continues.

[bull....]

I am fascinated by how in the modern world someone's opinion is presented as news

and they specifically mention dairy products and a2 a popular aussie milk powder lol

Tariffs on dairy products would represent escalation in tensions

[Balance]

https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/mining/heavy-price-chinas-aussie-ban-backfires/news-story/fedce06cc3648c494a7291796547809f

This should cause China to take a pause - especially now that Australian government has consciously dampened the conflict.

Be worth at least $2.50 on ATM’s sp if calm & peace breaks out between the two nations?

[xp04]

and they specifically mention dairy products and a2 a popular aussie milk powder lol

Tariffs on dairy products would represent escalation in tensions

Would, could, should... who they? As I already said before some people here do not know that ATM is NZ company and powder in particular is made in NZ

[tomm]

https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/mining/heavy-price-chinas-aussie-ban-backfires/news-story/fedce06cc3648c494a7291796547809f

This should cause China to take a pause - especially now that Australian government has consciously dampened the conflict.

Be worth at least $2.50 on ATM’s sp if calm & peace breaks out between the two nations?
Nothing to do with Australia LOL
ITS A NEW ZEALAND COMPANY .

[HKG2301]

Some more light reading...

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4393412-a2-milk-company-strong-growth-and-profitability-power-investment-opportunity

[Biscuit]

Some more light reading...

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4393412-a2-milk-company-strong-growth-and-profitability-power-investment-opportunity

You couldn't really get a more positive view than that, could you?

[HKG2301]

You couldn't really get a more positive view than that, could you?

Seems a very balanced article. Here's a quote from it on valuation...


A quick peak at price to earnings ratios in Refinitiv with the share price at NZ$14.18 puts the P/E with earnings estimates for the end of June 2022 at about 21x, not bad for a company capable of growing above 20% over the coming years. Morningstar puts the company’s fair value at about NZ$16 while according to Refinitiv, sell-side analysts have a median fair value of NZ$19.4. Our own modeling puts the fair value somewhere between NZ$18 and NZ$22 depending on how aggressive we are with revenue growth estimates. Assuming the company can grow at 20% (slow versus historic standards) over the coming decade, the fair value would land closer to NZ$30, offering more than 100% upside. It is inherently difficult to model such high growth potential companies, and we generally err on the side of caution when deciding how much to pay for growth over longer periods.

At the low end of our valuation zone of NZ$18 and requiring a margin of safety near 30% for a company with plenty of risks, we are looking for an entry point below NZ$13, but already see value in the opportunity.

[Biscuit]

......At the low end of our valuation zone of NZ$18 and requiring a margin of safety near 30% for a company with plenty of risks, we are looking for an entry point below NZ$13, but already see value in the opportunity.

I think they will be lucky to get in under $13 without more negative news coming out, but who knows. The sp still going down. Bought some more today as it dipped under $14. There are plenty of different valuations out there but I don't see anyone with a valuation under $14 (except the sellers).

[Waltzing]

China has it appears from the news flashes cut its belt and road investments from 70 billion to 4 billion. It may start to ramp up again next year but the worlds is in flux. Still milk is a basic supply product and not likely to be subject to any variations in spending such a this latest plunge in china lending ... They will still buy milk...

[HKG2301]

Have the clocks changed in Sydney or something?

ATM sp didn't get hammered until 1pm today (11am EST) - an hour late!

:rolleyes:

[bull....]

another newspaper outlet saying a2 might be punished if china takes action on aussie dairy

DairyBoth the milk and cream processing sector and the milk powder industry are “highly vulnerable” to hefty Chinese tariffs.
ASX-listed companies like A2 Milk Company Ltd (ASX: A2M) (https://www.fool.com.au/tickers/asx-a2m/), Bega Cheese Ltd (ASX: BGA) (https://www.fool.com.au/tickers/asx-bga/) and Keytone Dairy Corporation Ltd (ASX: KTD) (https://www.fool.com.au/tickers/asx-ktd/) could see their stock prices sink if that happened.

https://www.fool.com.au/2020/12/09/which-asx-shares-will-china-punish-next/

[tomm]

With continued market share gains in China, the brand should only strengthen and revenue should continue to grow. Market share gains are supported by smart management decisions around a Chinese label, effective marketing and growth in the number of stores in its distribution channel. According to the company, there are over 120,000 MBS in China and with a2 only reaching less than 20,000 of them so far, there is a lot of runway left to reach China’s growing middle class.

When we look longer term, the US market may be the real dark horse. The company is currently building scale in the market, but it could eventually be a meaningful profit contributor. So far, the progress is impressive, and the market is huge. The US is the largest global milk market with a growing premium segment. According to a2’s September 2019 investor presentation (https://thea2milkcompany.com/wp-content/uploads/The-a2-Milk-Company_Investor-Strategy-Day_17-September-2019.pdf), the premium refrigerated milk market in the US is $12.8 billion which is multiple times the size of the Australia and New Zealand market at about $1.7 billion and the Chinese market at about $4.6 billion

Growth has been hampered by COVID-19, but it is set to continue as the pandemic fades. The company should continue gaining market share in its main markets while expanding its product range to areas such as solutions for expecting mothers and older toddlers. Investors can reasonably expect strong double-digit sales growth for many years to come.

[Leftfield]

another newspaper outlet saying a2 might be punished if china takes action on aussie dairy....

Crikey Bull, you must be getting desperate if you think Motley Fool has any credibility.

[tomm]

I LOVE IT , SUCH A GREAT MANAGEMENT FROM A2MILK.

Supply chain risk is also substantial. The a2 Milk Company is heavily reliant on key suppliers such as Synlait and Fonterra and Chinese distributor China State Farm (the company’s exclusive import agent in China). The company has tried to reduce supply chain risk through contractual agreements with its key suppliers, but it remains largely dependent on continuing symbiotic relationships. The a2 Milk Company also has a meaning ownership stake in Synlait, but remains a minority investor. As mentioned, the company recently entered discussions to buy Mataura Valley Milk, partially to reduce supply chain risk, and has enough financial flexibility to continue to vertically integrate, but that would be at the cost of making the company more capital intensive. Mataura Valley Milk is currently majority owned by a highly respected China state-owned enterprise – China Animal Husbandry Group which is a sister company to China State Farm

[tomm]

Crikey Bull, you must be getting desperate if you think Motley Fool has any credibility.
The Chinese are very good at it ,you can see all the mentioned are 100% Ausie own (wine, meat , fruit) , they are clever enought to make sure they won't hurt their own pocket.:cool:

[Nigelk]

I LOVE IT , SUCH A GREAT MANAGEMENT FROM A2MILK.

Supply chain risk is also substantial. The a2 Milk Company is heavily reliant on key suppliers such as Synlait and Fonterra and Chinese distributor China State Farm (the company’s exclusive import agent in China). The company has tried to reduce supply chain risk through contractual agreements with its key suppliers, but it remains largely dependent on continuing symbiotic relationships. The a2 Milk Company also has a meaning ownership stake in Synlait, but remains a minority investor. As mentioned, the company recently entered discussions to buy Mataura Valley Milk, partially to reduce supply chain risk, and has enough financial flexibility to continue to vertically integrate, but that would be at the cost of making the company more capital intensive. Mataura Valley Milk is currently majority owned by a highly respected China state-owned enterprise – China Animal Husbandry Group which is a sister company to China State Farm

I don't get what you're saying ... if they buy the company from the Chinese, the Chinese don't own it anymore

[xp04]

I don't get what you're saying ... if they buy the company from the Chinese, the Chinese don't own it anymore
a2 is buying 75%. The rest still will belong to Chinese

[Balance]

The Chinese are very good at it ,you can see all the mentioned are 100% Ausie own (wine, meat , fruit) , they are clever enought to make sure they won't hurt their own pocket.:cool:

Not true.

The Chinese do own wineries and meat companies in Australia.

[tomm]

Not true.

The Chinese do own wineries and meat companies in Australia.
Please see , it is just a small amount , just to hold the Ausie economy. You can see in total just a bout 1B. Very very small.

2011 COFCO Sugar Tully)Sugar QLD $146)m 100%
2011 Bright)Food)Group Food Manassen)Foods NSW $530)m 75%
2011Chinatex)Australia Food DairyHoneyBeefNZNZAustSupply)Chain)setup
2012 Shandong)Ruyi Group Cotton Cubbie)Cotton)Group QLD $277)m 80%
2012Beidahuang)Group Cropping Dennis)Joyce's)family)cropping)companiesWA $23)m 100%2012
2015Tianma)Bearing)Co WineryBeefFerngroveWollogorang and)Wentworth)stationWANT$15.5)m$47)m100%100%
2012 Shanghai)Zhongfu)Group Sugar OrdIEast)Kimberley)Expansion)ProjectWA $700)m Lease)and)develop)land)for)sugar)cane
2013 New)Hope)Investment)Fund Beef)ProcessingKilcoy)Pastoral Company QLD $60)m Majority
2013 Chevalier)Group Fruit) Moraitis)Group NSW 70%
2014 Rifa)Group Grazing Blackwood VIC $27)m 100%
2014 Goldin)Group Horse)breedingLindsey)Park SA 100%
2014 1847)wine)Co Winery Chateau)Yaldara SA $15)m 100%
2014 Hong)Kong)Yingda Investment)Co Winery Hollick)Wines SA Majority
2014 Hailiang)Group Grazing)Grazing)Hollymount)StationMount)DrivenQLDQ LD$31.5)m$10)m100%100%
2014 China)National)Machinery)Industry)CorporationDairy )processingGreenfield)ProjectDAIRY)ON)HOLDREPOSITI ONING)TO)WAGYUQLD $500)m Joint)Venture
2014 Foresun)Group BeefprocessingTabro)Meats VIC $25)m 100%
2014 Heilongjiang)Grand)Farm)Group Meat)processingV)&)V)Walsh WA Supply)Agreement
2015 Dashang)Group Grazing Glenrock)Station

[bull....]

Crikey Bull, you must be getting desperate if you think Motley Fool has any credibility.

im just having a laugh thats the second aussie newspaper think a2 is aussie

[tomm]

im just having a laugh thats the second aussie newspaper think a2 is aussie
haahh lmao , gotta understand, it is looking for entry to buy A2M.

[Balance]

https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/lamb-the-latest-aussie-product-hit-by-china/news-story/c95ee40d925ba3ab25563b1b284970e3

Lamb just added to hit list by China.

So food is not immune.

https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/china-cracks-down-on-more-australian-exports/news-story/3b311f11a0179a5aae2c74b0c3d26e75

And more restrictions on timber exports too.

Guess market is concerned that dairy will potentially be hit as well.

Someone here who analyses ATM closely maybe able to help with this question :

How much does the daigou trade out of Australia represent by way of sales and profits to ATM if China shuts that down via a dairy export ban? Seems like that is the only exposure ATM has to an Oz dairy export ban by China.

This could explain why the market is concerned about the Oz/China situation.

[Baa_Baa]

Guess market is concerned that dairy will potentially be hit as well.

[Diagou exposure] This could explain why the market is concerned about the Oz/China situation.

Regardless of the underlying reasons, fear has a grip on the share price well and truely. I'm not suggesting long holds get out now, that would be silly, the future is bright while the short/recent term has been ugly.

The chart says ATM has basically averaged sideways since 2018 which is a pain because it lends itself to momentum trading rather than a solid continuous fundamental growth story. It seems ATM is not immune to shocks and has its fair share of them for the past few years.

Its SP is currently having a good look at the multiple lows providing support over a longish term, with potential, if it doesn't bounce like right now, to test the gap to $13. Troubling times, where everyone needs to reflect on their own investing/trading strategies and try to make the best of it.

Pretty much as soon as Covid was a big deal I sold ATM for about 60% gain on fears of suppliers to China, and then watched in disbelief as it proceeded to double bag! But now it's back well under my exit and am very interested to pick a new entry. Albeit on a momentum basis, when momentum changes to the upside.

gltah.

[Balance]

Guess market is concerned that dairy will potentially be hit as well.

Someone here who analyses ATM closely maybe able to help with this question :

How much does the daigou trade out of Australia represent by way of sales and profits to ATM if China shuts that down via a dairy export ban? Seems like that is the only exposure ATM has to an Oz dairy export ban by China.

This could explain why the market is concerned about the Oz/China situation.


Regardless of the underlying reasons, fear has a grip on the share price well and truely. I'm not suggesting long holds get out now, that would be silly, the future is bright while the short/recent term has been ugly.


Will be very useful to quantify and qualify - could be a great buying opportunity.

[Leftfield]

How much does the daigou trade out of Australia represent by way of sales and profits to ATM if China shuts that down via a dairy export ban? Seems like that is the only exposure ATM has to an Oz dairy export ban by China.
.

This chart from a FY20 results presentation may give some answer for you.

12133

If you look at the RH chart, I take it that the blue panels represent ANZ sourced IF via Daigou channels. As you can see this channel was declining from FY16, while other distribution channels were increasing.

This trend would have been more extreme post Covid and we are yet to learn how effectively the alternative channels have taken up the slack.

If there is any future Chinese action against Daigou channels, I suspect it will only serve to further strengthen the alternative channels trend shown (which also benefits the CCP owned companies tied to ATM's local distribution/production.)

I always regarded the Daigou channels as 'opportunistic' and never a long term channel so replacing this channel is actually a good move IMHO.

I also agree with Baa Baa's comments as below re short term fear and see the current SP as finely balanced with large gaps both above and below the current SP.... It's a moot point which way it will go in the short term, however, the long term view remains favourable. JMHO and I hold so am biased.

[xp04]

https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/lamb-the-latest-aussie-product-hit-by-china/news-story/c95ee40d925ba3ab25563b1b284970e3

Lamb just added to hit list by China.

So food is not immune.

https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/china-cracks-down-on-more-australian-exports/news-story/3b311f11a0179a5aae2c74b0c3d26e75

And more restrictions on timber exports too.

Guess market is concerned that dairy will potentially be hit as well.

Someone here who analyses ATM closely maybe able to help with this question :

How much does the daigou trade out of Australia represent by way of sales and profits to ATM if China shuts that down via a dairy export ban? Seems like that is the only exposure ATM has to an Oz dairy export ban by China.

This could explain why the market is concerned about the Oz/China situation.

I'm not sure how a pallet of NZ made infant formula that delivered to Shanghai with stopover in Sydney's warehouse become AU made? But I guess it's a mystery of life and beyond my comprehension.
As for your question, I have a bit different understanding of the chart posted by Left_field. You can find the following information in 2020 Annual Report:




Australia and New Zealand $’000
China and Other Asia $’000


Infant formula:




China label
–
337,715 (brown on chart)


English and other labels(1)
745,055 (blue)
341,120 (purple)



(1) Revenue is allocated based on management responsibility and usually reflects the geographical location of the Group’s wholesale customers. It is understoodthat a significant portion of the infant formula sales to customers in the Australia and New Zealand segment are ultimately consumed in China.

Based on note (1) my understanding is China label (brown) infant nutrition products that sold via mother and baby stores (MBS), modern supermarkets and domestic e-commerce retail channels. English label (purple) ANZ-sourced by Chinese based resellers and cross border e-commerce (CBEC) channels. English label (blue) ANZ retailers, ANZ-sourced by AU based resellers. So, the portion you are looking for would be partially in "blue" and "purple" parts of revenue. However, I still don't get it how China's ban on AU dairy will affect any of this?

[Balance]

This chart from a FY20 results presentation may give some answer for you.

12133

If you look at the RH chart, I take it that the blue panels represent ANZ sourced IF via Daigou channels. As you can see this channel was declining from FY16, while other distribution channels were increasing.


Thanks, LF.

I get the picture now - those are huge numbers of IF resales through Australia via the daigou channel for ATM.

No wonder the market is so concerned about any sort of ban or trade sanctions against Australian dairy exports.

[Gerald]

12134

Been getting into this TA business of drawing lines everywhere.

Looks like an interesting area of support.

[Balance]

However, I still don't get it how China's ban on AU dairy will affect any of this?

Here’s the rub I suspect :

Any ban will mean no export of A2 IF or milk powder via Australia.

Hope ATM has a contingency plan in place to export from NZ to the Australian based Daigou players (they are obviously big players) in such an event.

[LEMON]

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2020/12/9/australia-2

Things are only getting hotter

[HKG2301]

Regardless of the underlying reasons, fear has a grip on the share price well and truly. I'm not suggesting long holds get out now, that would be silly, the future is bright while the short/recent term has been ugly.
The chart says ATM has basically averaged sideways since 2018 which is a pain because it lends itself to momentum trading rather than a solid continuous fundamental growth story. It seems ATM is not immune to shocks and has its fair share of them for the past few years.
Its SP is currently having a good look at the multiple lows providing support over a longish term, with potential, if it doesn't bounce like right now, to test the gap to $13. Troubling times, where everyone needs to reflect on their own investing/trading strategies and try to make the best of it.
Pretty much as soon as Covid was a big deal I sold ATM for about 60% gain on fears of suppliers to China, and then watched in disbelief as it proceeded to double bag! But now it's back well under my exit and am very interested to pick a new entry. Albeit on a momentum basis, when momentum changes to the upside.

This kinda sums up the situation for me. Competing influences of...

* Product factors, is A2 milk really a 'thing' (and are the various markets prepared to pay a premium for it)
* Covid-factors, such as daigou 'choking' (never a huge, or reliable channel in its own right anyway)
* Geo-political factors, ie China really is taking Oz to task here to prove a point (will this come to affect ATM?)
* Economic factors (will ATM be able to continue as a premium 'growth' story as it expands in various markets, not just China)
* Investment factors, ie institutional v's retail investment (RobinHooders / Sharesies investors driving much of the present bull market)
* ASX shorting factors, which have been a huge influence to date, but historically/inevitably end in a momentous short squeeze (eg TSLA)
* Market factors, as Baa_Baa refers to above, including TA support levels (if you're into that kind of thing)
* Personal factors, such as balanced exposure, risk appetite, buy-and-hold v's ?, etc. You know, the usual stuff :)

Which is a heap to consider, but balances out for every individual: if/when to buy in, and at what price?

Personally, I'm in, and adding every time the sp drops below $14-ish, but this is a small part of my portfolio and balanced by other non-dairy, non-NZ, non-China, non-equity, non-whatever.

It's a risk/reward deal, like any other investment decision you make. ie you balance your risk v's the possible rewards.

Don't mean to sound preachy, but that's about it, as far as I can tell...

[HKG2301]

Which - obviously - invites comment on other factors I've missed..

:t_up:

[HKG2301]

I'll start, as I've just realised I missed...

* The China domestic market factor, where they REALLY ARE sold on premium imported infant formula v's domestic, after the 2008 melamine scandal.

[Panda-NZ-]

I'll start, as I've just realised I missed...

* The China domestic market factor, where they REALLY ARE sold on premium imported infant formula v's domestic, after the 2008 melamine scandal.

If there's one thing they won't substitute in this new nationalism drive, it's milk formula.

This has recently proven to be a good counter-cyclical stock if the trade issues on "australia" turn out to not affect atm.

[allfromacell]

I imagine if China does target dairy which I highly doubt they will they'll be selective and won't target companies with Chinese connections such as A2. It could actually be a positive for A2 but the market obviously doesn't agree.

[Balance]

https://www.weeklytimesnow.com.au/agribusiness/dairy/china-leaves-dairy-tariff-on-hold-despite-having-the-right-to-double-rate/news-story/5b3be6d70a21585f0b34d6dd6775443c

China not increasing tariff on Australian dairy despite having the right to double rates to 10%.

[wagwan]

If there is any future Chinese action against Daigou channels, I suspect it will only serve to further strengthen the alternative channels trend shown (which also benefits the CCP owned companies tied to ATM's local distribution/production.)

I always regarded the Daigou channels as 'opportunistic' and never a long term channel so replacing this channel is actually a good move IMHO.



Completely agree - would think given the sophistication of A2 from a logistics, distribution and marketing perspective, management would have avoided putting too many eggs in the Daigou channel basket.

Surely, while efficient etc, it was always a channel characterised as high risk. Even without China-Aus tensions, any number of things could have disrupted this channel?

Maybe the market is overestimating the influence, and impact of Diagou channel on A2 ability to get product into China?

Clarification at next market update could go a long way to alleviating market nerves.

[Biscuit]

This kinda sums up the situation for me. Competing influences of...

* Product factors, is A2 milk really a 'thing' (and are the various markets prepared to pay a premium for it)
* Covid-factors, such as daigou 'choking' (never a huge, or reliable channel in its own right anyway)
* Geo-political factors, ie China really is taking Oz to task here to prove a point (will this come to affect ATM?)
* Economic factors (will ATM be able to continue as a premium 'growth' story as it expands in various markets, not just China)
* Investment factors, ie institutional v's retail investment (RobinHooders / Sharesies investors driving much of the present bull market)
* ASX shorting factors, which have been a huge influence to date, but historically/inevitably end in a momentous short squeeze (eg TSLA)
* Market factors, as Baa_Baa refers to above, including TA support levels (if you're into that kind of thing)
* Personal factors, such as balanced exposure, risk appetite, buy-and-hold v's ?, etc. You know, the usual stuff :)

Which is a heap to consider, but balances out for every individual: if/when to buy in, and at what price?

Personally, I'm in, and adding every time the sp drops below $14-ish, but this is a small part of my portfolio and balanced by other non-dairy, non-NZ, non-China, non-equity, non-whatever.

It's a risk/reward deal, like any other investment decision you make. ie you balance your risk v's the possible rewards.

Don't mean to sound preachy, but that's about it, as far as I can tell...

In my experience, things tend to work out ok in the end.

[Leftfield]

Thanks, LF. I get the picture now - those are huge numbers of IF resales through Australia via the daigou channel for ATM.

Important to appreciate the difficulty of knowing the real size of the Daigou channel.

Whether a young mom is buying IF from her local Aussie supermarket for her baby, or parcelling it up and sending it back to relatives/friends/on-line orders etc in China would not be identifiable as a daigou sale by ATM.

Sales to large corporate daigou's could be known if they purchased direct from ATM. However, I suspect many smaller corporate Daigou's purchased from existing wholesalers/retailers (as evidenced by the 'shopping teams' that were once seen plundering Australian supermarket shelves.)

Ssssoo the true extent of this channel may never be known.

[winner69]

In my experience, things tend to work out ok in the end.

Yes indeed , easy to blindsided by an enormous amount of noise - esp if you analyse the noise to death and worry about the consequences

Sometime in the future one may ask out of curiosity 'did something happen in December 2010?'

[Balance]

They say share prices are driven by greed, fear and hope.

ATM currently is a great example of all 3 at work!

[Biscuit]

They say share prices are driven by greed, fear and hope.

ATM currently is a great example of all 3 at work!

There has been a distinctly cyclical nature to ATM's fear-hope-greed sequence. Historically, December is the month of hope.

[tomm]

you guys only talk about china , china ..but forgot about US.
It got 900% increased and continue expaning itself... imaging the Us markets... and they are just starting...

[xp04]

Here’s the rub I suspect :

Any ban will mean no export of A2 IF or milk powder via Australia.

Hope ATM has a contingency plan in place to export from NZ to the Australian based Daigou players (they are obviously big players) in such an event.

So, what you are saying is AU just need to send their currently banned products through NZ ports and problem disappears for them? It will became NZ products. Don’t know how aussies still haven’t figured this out

[Balance]

you guys only talk about china , china ..but forgot about US.
It got 900% increased and continue expaning itself... imaging the Us markets... and they are just starting...

US market is potential (hope), China is reality (fear).

bull.... is in the wings, waiting to pounce (greed).

[Gregnz]

Yes indeed , easy to blindsided by an enormous amount of noise - esp if you analyse the noise to death and worry about the consequences

Sometime in the future one may ask out of curiosity 'did something happen in December 2010?'

What happened in December 2010?

[Balance]

Please see , it is just a small amount , just to hold the Ausie economy. You can see in total just a bout 1B. Very very small.


https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/other-industries/aussies-urged-to-boycott-41-vineyards-actually-owned-by-chinese-firms/news-story/c7cd6724a093e37cc7b51bce1b3a8c58

A list of 41 Aussie vineyards that are actually owned by Chinese companies has been leaked, with locals told to boycott them in retaliation.

Silly stuff - what's the point of escalating the dispute?

[Leftfield]

US market is potential (hope), China is reality (fear).

bull.... is in the wings, waiting to pounce (greed).

Great summary! ;)

[LEMON]

A2 up on the ASX open?

[LEMON]

And back down haha

[Ggcc]

https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/other-industries/aussies-urged-to-boycott-41-vineyards-actually-owned-by-chinese-firms/news-story/c7cd6724a093e37cc7b51bce1b3a8c58

A list of 41 Aussie vineyards that are actually owned by Chinese companies has been leaked, with locals told to boycott them in retaliation.

Silly stuff - what's the point of escalating the dispute?

It is really becoming idiotic.. It boys playing boy games. Egos are coming into this argument. Aussie wants to be the bully and then they find there is a bully bigger than themselves. China will survive without Aussie and their people are strong and more united than most other countries.

[Waltzing]

Aus can do a special trade deal with Boris..

more defaults in china...

[Leftfield]

It is really becoming idiotic.. It boys playing boy games. Egos are coming into this argument. Aussie wants to be the bully and then they find there is a bully bigger than themselves. China will survive without Aussie and their people are strong and more united than most other countries.


Ignore the Aussie perspective............ this from an article by Fran O'Sullivan commenting on why China is keen to joins NZ's CPTPP Trade agreement.

"...New Zealand was the first country to promote China's accession to the World Trade Organisation. First to recognise China as a market economy. The first developed economy to cement a free trade agreement with China. And first to add Hong Kong and Taiwan to that trifecta of economic partnership agreements...."

I'm taking a break from posting now.... Merry Christmas all and see you in the New Year.

[tomm]

Ignore the Aussie perspective............ this from an article by Fran O'Sullivan commenting on why China is keen to joins NZ's CPTPP Trade agreement.

"...New Zealand was the first country to promote China's accession to the World Trade Organisation. First to recognise China as a market economy. The first developed economy to cement a free trade agreement with China. And first to add Hong Kong and Taiwan to that trifecta of economic partnership agreements...."

I'm taking a break from posting now.... Merry Christmas all and see you in the New Year.
I got my thumps up and bow my hat to you :t_up:

[tomm]

Last call for $14/share.
I have a feeling it is going to reach Mt Everest's peak any time from now.

[daveypnz]

Topped up @ $13.99 :)

[imarktu]

My initial (and until recently, by far my largest) investment in this stock was at $21, and I have been topping up at various points on the way down from $17.
I matched my initial investment @ $13.70, and will continue to nibble away with smaller chunks over the coming weeks.

Would be nice to see $21 again.

[Waltzing]

This wont effect AT but it seems that if NZ did this sort of growth the international markets would complain...we have never trusted china markets and my friends in Hong Kong will have lost money.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/09/economy/china-debt-defaults-state-companies-intl-hnk/index.html

now image if US companies started doing this in some numbers...

[tomm]

This wont effect AT but it seems that if NZ did this sort of growth the international markets would complain...we have never trusted china markets and my friends in Hong Kong will have lost money.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/09/economy/china-debt-defaults-state-companies-intl-hnk/index.html

now image if US companies started doing this in some numbers...
Up we go and now A2milk is happy to Rock and Roll

Politics 18:42, 10-Dec-2020

Wang Yi speaks with New Zealand's newly-appointed Foreign Minister Mahuta
Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi had a phone call Thursday with New Zealand's newly-appointed Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta.
Wang congratulated Mahuta on her appointment, and acknowledged the support exchanged between the two countries during the battle against the COVID-19 pandemic.
Wang also called for a prompt signing of the free trade agreement upgrade protocol between the two countries. He said China is willing to work with New Zealand to move forward their bilateral relationship in a new era, and actively foster sources of growth in emerging fields.

[tomm]

Fran O'Sullivan: China's sudden interest in Asia-Pacific trade pact chance for Jacinda Ardern to leadPrime Minister Jacinda Ardern has been surprisingly quiescent when it comes to welcoming Xi Jinping's outright interest in China joining the Asia-Pacific's most sophisticated regional trade pact.
The Chinese President surprised Apec-watchers when he...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/fran-osullivan-chinas-sudden-interest-in-asia-pacific-trade-pact-chance-for-jacinda-ardern-to-lead/CABQ7LMMXYQMUYRAGCBJCK4PGE/

[LEMON]

Yeah but the ASX believes A2 is Australian, that is surely to effect the share price still?

[winner69]

Yeah but the ASX believes A2 is Australian, that is surely to effect the share price still?

HQ in NZ but all the real day to day action (CEO designate, marketing et etc) emanates from Australia doesnt it?

[Waltzing]

"Wang Yi "

appears to be awaiting a change of US leadership, mean while other china players are slugging it to the AUS side kick.

The only reason the china dragon hasnt breathed fire on the kiwi flightless bird is that it would look very poor for all those small Belt and Road country's.

They would say "whatch out NZ just got burnt and they cant even fly".

Tomm, its lovely that the NZ government got some reassurance but its calculated. No point in the dragon breathing fire burning the wings of the flightless bird.

Bad form, better to beat the Kanga up who has the boxing gloves..

It should calm down once the new man is in place as YI said this week.

Its classic Art of War.

[bull....]

"Wang Yi "

appears to be awaiting a change of US leadership, mean while other china players are slugging it to the AUS side kick.

The only reason the china dragon hasnt breathed fire on the kiwi flightless bird is that it would look very poor for all those small Belt and Road country's.

They would say "whatch out NZ just got burnt and they cant even fly".

Tomm, its lovely that the NZ government got some reassurance but its calculated. No point in the dragon breathing fire burning the wings of the flightless bird.

Bad form, better to beat the Kanga up who has the boxing gloves..

It should calm down once the new man is in place as YI said this week.

Its classic Art of War.

art of war very good book.

nz dollar higher again overnight as those analysts said from aus that will be impacting a2 more into next year also fph wont be liking it either

[Balance]

https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/china-replies-over-latest-wine-tariffs-after-australias-trade-minister-simon-birmingham-lashes-out/news-story/861cfca08b507c848d5660bade77e60d

Up goes the rhetoric - the big bully Australia does not take kindly to being bullied by a bigger bully.

Oh well, looks like we could be on for more fireworks yet. China is not going to back down and lose face.

[Waltzing]

Takes a lot to knock a Kanga out, they bounce back... harsh training and conditioning program undertaken by junior Kanga's in the out back...

Remember the Kokoda Trial....

[Ggcc]

https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/china-replies-over-latest-wine-tariffs-after-australias-trade-minister-simon-birmingham-lashes-out/news-story/861cfca08b507c848d5660bade77e60d

Up goes the rhetoric - the big bully Australia does not take kindly to being bullied by a bigger bully.

Oh well, looks like we could be on for more fireworks yet. China is not going to back down and lose face.

It makes you wonder how big everyones egos are at this point.

[bull....]

Iron ore no exception in twisted China-Australia trade


There has been intense coverage addressing deteriorating ties between China and Australia and falling bilateral trade, with a growing list of Australian products - ranging from barley, to timber, lobster and beef - facing the so-called "sanctions" from China.
It is wishful thinking that iron ore could be an exception in ongoing China-Australia trade rows

https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1209641.shtml

if iron ore is on the table dairy is really on the table as iron ore is needed by china more than dairy

[Waltzing]

some comments a few months back that Aus ore is valued by china due to grades.

imagine if it goes under 10. not a chance .....

[bull....]

global times is considered by some a mouthpiece of the chinese govt. need to remember this stoush is about more than trade its about control of the pacific under china rule. so everything is on the table

[Balance]

Iron ore no exception in twisted China-Australia trade


There has been intense coverage addressing deteriorating ties between China and Australia and falling bilateral trade, with a growing list of Australian products - ranging from barley, to timber, lobster and beef - facing the so-called "sanctions" from China.
It is wishful thinking that iron ore could be an exception in ongoing China-Australia trade rows

https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1209641.shtml

if iron ore is on the table dairy is really on the table as iron ore is needed by china more than dairy

Global Times is of course the mouth piece of the CCP.

Guess Brazil will be rubbing its hands in glee at the prospect of replacing Australia as the biggest supply of iron ore to China?

Realistically, iron ore will be the last product to be hit by China but knowing the way China very successfully fought the trade war with the US, it will be busy setting up alternative supply lines while maintaining Oz supply in the meantime.

China did the same with coal and now gets a big chunk of its needs from Indonesia.

[bull....]

Global Times is of course the mouth piece of the CCP.

Guess Brazil will be rubbing its hands in glee at the prospect of replacing Australia as the biggest supply of iron ore to China?

Realistically, iron ore will be the last product to be hit by China but knowing the way China very successfully fought the trade war with the US, it will be busy setting up alternative supply lines while maintaining Oz supply in the meantime.

China did the same with coal and now gets a big chunk of its needs from Indonesia.

aus and brazil the two biggest suppliers of iron ore so if you take aus out brazil would never fill the gap only low cost dirty iron ore from china which makes crap steel.

so as i said its more than about trade

[tomm]

In this news article, if new Zealand is leading this Asia-Pacific Trade and Xi is asking to join then there won't be disregard to New zealand A2M.

Fran O'Sullivan: China's sudden interest in Asia-Pacific trade pact chance for Jacinda Ardern to lead

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has been surprisingly quiescent when it comes to welcoming Xi Jinping's outright interest in China joining the Asia-Pacific's most sophisticated regional trade pact.
The Chinese President surprised Apec-watchers when he...

[BlackPeter]

aus and brazil the two biggest suppliers of iron ore so if you take aus out brazil would never fill the gap only low cost dirty iron ore from china which makes crap steel.

so as i said its more than about trade

Chinese like to diversify:

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Caixin/China-s-opportunities-and-risks-in-Africa-s-giant-iron-ore-field

They soon might break the grip of the Australian bully ...

[tomm]

Last call ..or, you will miss the A2M board....:D

[LEMON]

I think we will be floating here @ $14 for awhile longer. I hope to be proven wrong but with things escalating further and a large majority of investors on the Asx, I doubt the price will shift until A2M make an announcement.

[tomm]

I think we will be floating here @ $14 for awhile longer. I hope to be proven wrong but with things escalating further and a large majority of investors on the Asx, I doubt the price will shift until A2M make an announcement.
This stock is the most violatile stock , you may never know the next day but just your own research into the business and workout the Sp. We and even the people on ASX won't determine the Sp but only the Insto's. At the moment , shaking and collect are happenning , and the shorters are at it worst so far since the news of new CEO. But I do trust in the board of A2M as I always do.
https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=a2m

[tomm]

11/DEC/2020

JARDEN RATES ATM AND MFT = OUT PERFORM

https://www.jarden.co.nz/assets/Investment-Outlooks/Investment-Outlook-November-2020.pdf

[Balance]

11/DEC/2020

JARDEN RATES ATM AND MFT = OUT PERFORM

https://www.jarden.co.nz/assets/Investment-Outlooks/Investment-Outlook-November-2020.pdf

Old news - was issued in November.

Useful nevertheless so appreciated. Thanks.

[HKG2301]

11 DEC 20 JARDEN RATES ATM AND MFT = OUT PERFORM

https://www.jarden.co.nz/assets/Investment-Outlooks/Investment-Outlook-November-2020.pdf

Interesting read.

I see they list ATM as one of their 15 'Quality Portfolio Constituents', with a weighting of 5.4%. Here's the whole list...

Ticker Weight Sector
ATM 5.4% Consumer Staples
FPH 6.9% Health Care
FRE 7.4% Industrials
GMT 7.3% Real Estate
KMD 6.3% Consumer Discretionary
MEL 7.3% Utilities
MFT 9.3% Industrials
OCA 6.9% Health Care
PCT 5.7% Real Estate
POT 6.9% Industrials
SAN 4.2% Consumer Staples
SCL 5.5% Consumer Staples
SKL 7.6% Industrials
SPG 6.2% Real Estate
SPK 7.1% Communication
100.0%

[tomm]

Interesting read.

I see they list ATM as one of their 15 'Quality Portfolio Constituents', with a weighting of 5.4%. Here's the whole list...

Ticker Weight Sector
ATM 5.4% Consumer Staples
FPH 6.9% Health Care
FRE 7.4% Industrials
GMT 7.3% Real Estate
KMD 6.3% Consumer Discretionary
MEL 7.3% Utilities
MFT 9.3% Industrials
OCA 6.9% Health Care
PCT 5.7% Real Estate
POT 6.9% Industrials
SAN 4.2% Consumer Staples
SCL 5.5% Consumer Staples
SKL 7.6% Industrials
SPG 6.2% Real Estate
SPK 7.1% Communication
100.0%
Of course it is ATM ,just the stock is the most volatile but for an investor you will see the potential long term profit of this company.

[Balance]

https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/other-industries/calls-to-boycott-all-chineseowned-companies-in-australia-grow/news-story/b1e9acf88ed982da54d333038cf5d576

Call to boycott not only China products but products & services of China owned companies in Australia.

A rather extensive list running into many billions of dollars.

Let’s see how China reacts to an attack on their companies in Oz.

[tomm]

BLACKROCK, INC!
Date this disclosure made: 11 December 2020
Date last disclosure made: 25 September 2018

One of the Insto's with classic shaking and collecting of 8 millions shares so far.

For this disclosure,—(a) total number held in class: 46,398,814(b) total in class: 742,606,937(c) total percentage held in class: 6.248%
For last disclosure,—(a) total number held in class: 38,298,101(b) total in class: 734,797,297(c) total percentage held in class: 5.212%

[Waltzing]

Tomm, very impressive !

"Let’s see how China reacts to an attack on their companies in Oz."

i was hoping the Kanga's would go to the beach this xmas after that not so nice summer last year...

And it was very windy here as the pressure of those fires sent winds this way...

Everyone needs to get some sun and relax... lucky we did not buy those bonds on offer the last 10 years in Hong Kong...

[winner69]

Looks like Kingfish have been selling quite a few A2 over the past few weeks

Gone from 13.6% of fund to 11% - must have sold about 1/2 mill shares

[tomm]

Looks like Kingfish have been selling quite a few A2 over the past few weeks

Gone from 13.6% of fund to 11% - must have sold about 1/2 mill shares
If Blackrock could buy 16x times what Kingfish sold , then I am confident to top up mine too .