PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[trader_jackson]

A major broker has given its take, $1.25 12 month target, with the key points:
- US progress pleasing
- Capital raising to provide headroom for growth
- New products to provide potential future upside

$1.25 is a 90% premium to the share price close yesterday.

Of course, brokers are not always correct, and, as always, do your own research, but its nice to hear in my opinion.

[winner69]

Wow Dentie. I can't believe your take on it. Whatever works for you I guess.

At what point would you say enough is enough though and pull the pin?

Despite what Dentie implies I'm here to see if I can make money on PEB. I really want NZ science to make a mark on the world. PEB has received cash from me in the past so I have invested in PEB (as opposed to buying somebody else's shares) and PEB has used my money to get to where it is today.

Making money is trying to understand market sentiment, more so than believing a story.

Understanding that sentiment is balancing the story that the company (through Darling) tells against reality. Getting a feel for that can be useful, esp when reviewing financial models to come to a range of valuations.

However valuations mean squatly did at the moment, its market sentiment. I do see an opportunity to make a buck here sometime though but emotion won't cloud my judgement.

[klid]

Buying op tho? SPP will stay above 64/65?

[Dentie]

Wow Dentie. I can't believe your take on it. Whatever works for you I guess.

At what point would you say enough is enough though and pull the pin?

Thanks NBT. I have this view because I am not in the "make money as fast as you can" basket. Every time I have cuddled that belief - I've managed to get myself burnt. A long time in business (& an understanding of finance) has taught me the value that patience ultimately brings.

It is far too early for me to be thinking of pulling the pin. They're only just getting out of the starting blocks on what is hopefully going to be a long journey.

The financial ratios are encouraging. So long as they maintain the right trajectory, their story remains positive and my own personal story doesn't change, then I have no intention of selling over the short term.

[BigBob]

We have just been given the results for the first FULL year of revenue from the US.
This means there are 4 more FY reports to be presented, not three not two but four.
Not a bad effort for the FIRST FULL year based on revenues from Cxbladder DETECT ONLY.
Basically from Americas Choice, Stratose, and Fedmed. Given the 7 month startup window, if applicable, then Multiplan has only contributed 3 months or so to this FY just presented.
Triage should not have this delay with customers already signed up.

According to this morning's article in the ODT we have just started year 3...:

"Pacific Edge is now beginning its third financial year, since it announced it wants to have revenue of $100 million within five full financial years.

Mr Darling stood by that statement, and depending on the outcome of US and Southeast Asian developments, hinted there could be a positive revision in the future. "

http://www.odt.co.nz/news/dunedin/343938/pacific-edge-hopes-raise-353m-shareholders

[skid]

And was it Hartley who mentioned the 5 year plan to $100m and said suppose 2 years in to it ......and not even chastised by David for mentioning it ......or denial ....so $100m in 3 years now ....just another $97m to go, but transformational businesses can do that easy
I agree and raise you one...
Im sure accountants have ways of working things like this out ,but for a simple guy like me I see it 2 ways--They either have $97m+35m=132m to go in 3 years---or 97m to go and the shares are reduced in value by 16% (approx 57m) That 35m(1/3 of the goal) has got to be accounted for somehow.

Next step is to try to figure out how much more money they spent to make how much more sales.(you cant get to 97m by walking backwards.

For the glass half full posters--anything less than 16% decline in SP is a vote of confidence i suppose.

[Dentie]

Despite what Dentie implies I'm here to see if I can make money on PEB.

Oh come on Winner - of course I want to make some money....just not fretting about trying to get rich overnight. One thing for certain though...I won't be on the side lines when the T/O offer is eventually presented....which IMHO is still a wee way off yet.

[skid]

A major broker has given its take, $1.25 12 month target, with the key points:
- US progress pleasing
- Capital raising to provide headroom for growth
- New products to provide potential future upside

$1.25 is a 90% premium to the share price close yesterday.

Of course, brokers are not always correct, and, as always, do your own research, but its nice to hear in my opinion.

Thats right ,they are not always correct--in PEBs case they have not been correct yet since they started.--In PEBs case it is going to require something big that creates a turning point to exponential growth. Anylists are much better at projecting SP of companies like RYM that have steady growth and numbers to crunch--Predicting when some event happens that thrusts a company into overdrive is much more difficult.

ofcourse revenues are going to grow by a great % if you start at a low number and throw tons more resources at it in the form of a larger sales team and more PR expenditure.---I agree with promotion and marketing (but of course it has to be done right)

[BlackPeter]

[QUOTE]
At some stage PEB will be attractively valued for a takeover but it looks to expensive here.
I have to agree with others on this forum who think PEB is currently worth about 100m.

Interesting. Always found it difficult to value startups. Why do you think its worth $100m? Why not $50m or - just for arguments sake $200m (where the market puts it currently)?

[skid]

Oh come on Winner - of course I want to make some money....just not fretting about trying to get rich overnight. One thing for certain though...I won't be on the side lines when the T/O offer is eventually presented....which IMHO is still a wee way off yet.

As long as you dont frett about getting poor overnight---Investors want solid reasons why to invest or stay in a company(unless they feel a patriotic duty to stay.)

[Dentie]

As long as you dont frett about getting poor overnight---Investors want solid reasons why to invest or stay in a company(unless they feel a patriotic duty to stay.)

Hi Skid. The only reason/time I fret about getting poor overnight is when other people/entities have control over my dosh. Again, experience has taught me not to trust others with the investment of my money. Here, read this piece from the Herald this morning...really sobering. I've been following this for a while now and I am glad that Carmel has decided to bring it a little more into view.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/best-of-business-analysis/news/article.cfm?c_id=1501241&objectid=11456327&ref=newsl_businessnewsdirect_J20080610_113625_2167 _4261_883682029

If, after reading this (& perhaps investigating a bit further), people still don't want to believe what is going on - then I believe they are in for a big shock. The GFC will look like a kids birthday party on the back lawn - compared to what the next meltdown is going to deliver us.

In fact, I hinted at this very point yesterday on this thread - in response to one of Balance's posts....but, as expected, it went unnoticed.

Skid, do you think Investor's inflating the US stock market up to record highs...using money created from the multiple QE's is a "solid reason to invest", or do you think they are doing it out of "patriotic duty"???

[Minerbarejet]

According to this morning's article in the ODT we have just started year 3...:

"Pacific Edge is now beginning its third financial year, since it announced it wants to have revenue of $100 million within five full financial years.

Mr Darling stood by that statement, and depending on the outcome of US and Southeast Asian developments, hinted there could be a positive revision in the future. "

http://www.odt.co.nz/news/dunedin/343938/pacific-edge-hopes-raise-353m-shareholders

Entering third financial year since it made an announcement re 100 mil (which they probably regret to this day) has nothing to do with the current full financial year, the first of five that has just reached us.
Another point.
This is only a preliminary result. Who knows what may have taken place in June 2015 that could be included for updating in the final
2015 FY. Should know how the CR went for instance although the 29th closure might be cutting it close.

[skid]

Just looking back over the numbers (after sleeping on it)--Its taken 12,625m in cost to make 1,900m in sales---Things we dont know--how much of the cost is for things like KPtrial and if there are more uncollected sales

(Im not sure why they would not tell us about $$ of uncollected sales owing) (other current assets?) (intangible assets?)

[Balance]

The only reason/time I fret about getting poor overnight is when other people/entities have control over my dosh

Here, read this piece from the Herald this morning...really sobering. I've been following this for a while now and I am glad that Carmel has decided to bring it a little more into view.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/best-of-business-analysis/news/article.cfm?c_id=1501241&objectid=11456327&ref=newsl_businessnewsdirect_J20080610_113625_2167 _4261_883682029



Haha - now I have seen the light!

Referring to a Carmel Fisher's article? The same Carmel who has delivered minus growth in her listed funds in 8 years, but made tens of millions of dollars in fees (heads she wins, tails you lose) while her investors lose millions.

And btw, when you invest in a company like PEB, you have effectively given control of your money over to the company's directors and management. No different to giving it to a fund manager. It is a matter of selecting a good company as it is about selecting a good fund manager.

Also, investing is not about taking a company's pronouncements and hype unquestioningly without critically examining its track record as events (like the company going back on its words and commitments to shareholders) unfold. That is is not independent thinking.

In the case of PEB, the hype has long gone by its use-by date for us seasoned investors. Only the sheep now follow the company's 'exciting this, excitement that and so excited about' pronouncements.

[Dentie]

Haha - now I have seen the light!

Referring to a Carmel Fisher's article? The same Carmel who has delivered minus growth in her listed funds in 8 years, but made tens of millions of dollars in fees (heads she wins, tails you lose) while her investors lose millions.

Also, investing is not about taking a company's pronouncements and hype unquestioningly without critically examining its track record as events (like the company going back on its words and commitments to shareholders) unfold.

In the case of PEB, the hype has long gone by its use-by date for us seasoned investors. Only the sheep now follow the company's 'exciting this, excitement that and so excited about' pronouncements.

As usual...you missed the point. Look at the bigger picture Balance instead of concentrating on the person.

However, judging by your comments, now that you and your "seasoned investors" have got in and then abandoned this fledgling company before they have even really started trading - let alone a profit (but not before making your profit of course) ... are you suggesting everyone else should follow your example?

Makes me wonder what the proper definition of a "seasoned investor" really is.

[Balance]

So it is $100m in mid 2018

David really excited that NEW investors have done due diligence and are keen to buy in.

Whose selling down? Or maybe just take the money from these keen punters and build that war chest up (new share)

Wow, exciting eh. At least David is


http://www.radionz.co.nz/audio/player/201756304

Have to laugh about the PR hype words used in the releases from PEB, W69.

Can see why some shareholders have become over-excited about the falling sp :

Page 2 of release yesterday - https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/264923

"We are also excited about the potential opportunities ..."

"We are excited about the opportunities ..... add more exciting CxBladder products ...."

All in two short sentences! Must be an 'excited' MIA as it's bad English to use 'also excited' without a first excited?

How excited will the shareholders be when the sp falls to 35 cents?

[Balance]

As usual...you missed the point. Look at the bigger picture Balance instead of concentrating on the person.

However, judging by your comments, now that you and your "seasoned investors" have got in and then abandoned this fledgling company before they have even really started trading - let alone a profit (but not before making your profit of course) ... are you suggesting everyone else should follow your example?

Makes me wonder what the proper definition of a "seasoned investor" really is.

Feltex, Rakon, Plus SMS, Snakk, Genesis, Seadragon, Bliss etc etc and all the failed finance companies must feel very abandoned by the seasoned investors even when the newies piled in?

There is a time to invest, and there is a time to divest. All depends on whether a company lives up to expectations and its assertions to investors.

In the case of PEB, the company is way behind on its traction against its hype. Too many examples now (after the years of hype and promises) of reality not measuring up to hype, but let me give you another one :

August 2014 Hype : "The Kaiser Permanente User Program research project is planned to recruit approximately 2000 patients presenting with microscopic and macroscopic
hematuria (blood in the urine), from the 3.7 million members of Kaiser Permanente Southern California. The User Program research is scheduled to begin later this year with results
completed in early 2015."

May 2015 Reality : "First tests are expected in next few weeks".

No updates between the much hyped up sp positive announcement in August 2014 and May 2015 (9 months by my seasoned calculation) so shareholders are expected to do their own research to find out that NOTHING was going to plan?

Luckily, some of us DOOR (do our own research). Some posters here who I have shared research information here know what I mean.

[BlackPeter]

Entering third financial year since it made an announcement re 100 mil (which they probably regret to this day) has nothing to do with the current full financial year, the first of five that has just reached us.
Another point.
This is only a preliminary result. Who knows what may have taken place in June 2015 that could be included for updating in the final
2015 FY. Should know how the CR went for instance although the 29th closure might be cutting it close.

Hi Miner, last time I checked their financial year ended in March. While the numbers still might be preliminary (unaudited) - whatever happens between now and the release of their final report won't change them.

[Balance]

Hi Miner, last time I checked their financial year ended in March. While the numbers still might be preliminary (unaudited) - whatever happens between now and the release of their final report won't change them.

I think it is called 'wishful thinking'?

[Minerbarejet]

Hi Miner, last time I checked their financial year ended in March. While the numbers still might be preliminary (unaudited) - whatever happens between now and the release of their final report won't change them.
Sorry should have clarified. I meant in the way of updates to any proposed outcomes, ie KP, CMS, VA, US Triage launch, Results of NZ DHB triage trials, Capital Raising success, perhaps even an indication of progress in the current year. We had information added last year on the Full year Final regarding the 7 month delay between signing and payment for the first Fedmed test.

"Seasoned investors" are the ones requiring a fair bit of salt and pepper to absorb a lot of the undoubtedly well meant statements on this thread.
•NaCl:)

[Twinklefingers]

just had this sent to me by a guy who drives the latest model rolls royce.

1HY15 underlying revenue (Audited) = $1,011,000


FY15 underlying revenue (unaudited) = $1,900,000


Therefore, 2HY15 underlying revenue = $889,000. That's a negative 11% growth rate HY on HY...
PEB now spending $m on negative growth.
DD on track to continue(for many more years) his 20 year record of not ever being involved with a company turning profit.

Could the HY15 revenue results be including Callaghan Grant revenue? They announced it on February 27th 2014 and it is showing separately in the FY15 report but not mentioned at all in the first half report. They also list it as operating revenue in the HY and sales Revenue in the full year.

[winner69]

Have to laugh about the PR hype words used in the releases from PEB, W69.

Can see why some shareholders have become over-excited about the falling sp :

Page 2 of release yesterday - https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/264923

"We are also excited about the potential opportunities ..."

"We are excited about the opportunities ..... add more exciting CxBladder products ...."

All in two short sentences! Must be an 'excited' MIA as it's bad English to use 'also excited' without a first excited?

How excited will the shareholders be when the sp falls to 35 cents?

Were you impressed with the huge numbers of visitors / patients that go to those accredited hospitals in Bangkok (I think he said ) and Singapore. I think it was in the hundreds of thousands. Suppose it was relevant

Will check on the transcript

[Balance]

Were you impressed with the huge numbers of visitors / patients that go to those accredited hospitals in Bangkok (I think he said ) and Singapore. I think it was in the hundreds of thousands. Suppose it was relevant

Will check on the transcript

Haha - did he not say something along the same line of the potential in the EU after the foray into Spain? In the millions, I think, were the words then!

That was 4 years ago and we have not heard a sausage since.

[robbo24]

*Brushes dust off shoulders*

Now that my ban is lifted, I can finally say...

Thank you PEB shareholders for my upcoming de facto dividend.

My calculations show it will be about 6 cents per share - good times :D

[winner69]

just had this sent to me by a guy who drives the latest model rolls royce.

1HY15 underlying revenue (Audited) = $1,011,000


FY15 underlying revenue (unaudited) = $1,900,000


Therefore, 2HY15 underlying revenue = $889,000. That's a negative 11% growth rate HY on HY...
PEB now spending $m on negative growth.
DD on track to continue(for many more years) his 20 year record of not ever being involved with a company turning profit.

With due respect to the guy who drives the roller I think he is wrong

H1 was $1,011k but equivalent number for H2 is $2.334k with increases in both grants and US Lab sales

Not much though is it ....I think Blis had higher sales but might be wrong.

But on track to growing that to $100m annually in 2018 ......such exponential growth wouldn't just stop so a billion in 2020 ......exciting transformational stuff eh

Maybe the guy with a roller needs a Lamborghini as a second car

[winner69]

Haha - did he not say something along the same line of the potential in the EU after the foray into Spain? In the millions, I think, were the words then!

Spain still on the go, exciting developments he said or something like that when the guru analyst asked him

[Balance]

With due respect to the guy who drives the roller I think he is wrong

H1 was $1,011k but equivalent number for H2 is $2.334k with increases in both grants and US Lab sales

Not much though is it ....I think Blis had higher sales but might be wrong.

But on track to growing that to $100m annually in 2018 ......such exponential growth wouldn't just stop so a billion in 2020 ......exciting transformational stuff eh

Maybe the guy with a roller needs a Lamborghini as a second car

I read the numbers (per PEB's financial results releases) same way as the Roller guy.

But then what do I know? I only drive a Subaru over the weekend.

[Balance]

Spain still on the go, exciting developments he said or something like that when the guru analyst asked him

Haha - excitement when he visits the beaches in Spain or the hospitals?

[Crackity]

Welcome back Balance - legend is much better than banned! Must be time for an Nzo post some time soon....

Sorry to go off topic....

[Dentie]

Feltex, Rakon, Plus SMS, Snakk, Genesis, Seadragon, Bliss etc etc and all the failed finance companies must feel very abandoned by the seasoned investors even when the newies piled in?

There is a time to invest, and there is a time to divest. All depends on whether a company lives up to expectations and its assertions to investors.

In the case of PEB, the company is way behind on its traction against its hype. Too many examples now (after the years of hype and promises) of reality not measuring up to hype, but let me give you another one :

August 2014 Hype : "The Kaiser Permanente User Program research project is planned to recruit approximately 2000 patients presenting with microscopic and macroscopic
hematuria (blood in the urine), from the 3.7 million members of Kaiser Permanente Southern California. The User Program research is scheduled to begin later this year with results
completed in early 2015."

May 2015 Reality : "First tests are expected in next few weeks".

No updates between the much hyped up sp positive announcement in August 2014 and May 2015 (9 months by my seasoned calculation) so shareholders are expected to do their own research to find out that NOTHING was going to plan?

Luckily, some of us DOOR (do our own research). Some posters here who I have shared research information here know what I mean.

As I said ... "Makes me wonder what the proper definition of a "seasoned investor" really is".

Not that I necessarily follow his every statement, but even the REAL so-called market "Oracle" (that would be Mr Buffett ;)) stated that once he buys a stock, he never sells unless the underlying reason for investing in a company in the first place... changes. The PEB underlying story has not changed!

If someone invests in a company, but then immediately "divests" out of that company simply because the company didn't meet their preferred timing (which, of course, is not always the fault of the company!!) then I wouldn't describe them as an investor at all. I would see them as a hindrance to the share register as they would de-stabilise the company and get in the way of the real investors and the company's long term success. So long as the overall business model is intact, a real investor would stay in.

The fact is, KP - CMS - VA - urologists etc all appear to embrace what PEB is developing for their patients. Although the wait can be frustrating, it will be worth waiting for in the long term.

DD has openly admitted that the last 2 years in the US has created big learning opportunities for all of them. I've been running my own businesses for the last 25 years and although finally successful at it - the learning's never stop.

[Dentie]

Maybe the guy with a roller needs a Lamborghini as a second car

Hah! The fact he is driving a Rolls tells me a lot!

[winner69]

yes now that they are bringing grants into revenue's maybe they will hit $100m in grants alone.
me thinks the guy with the rolls has a very flash boat as a second vehicle

Corporate welfare is a great thing isn't it snaps ..... good use of our money

Years ago I had a girlfriend whose old man drove a Rolls .... it had a bumper sticker 'My other car is a Rolls' ...... and my god it was too

[Balance]

The PEB underlying story has not changed!

DD has openly admitted that the last 2 years in the US has created big learning opportunities for all of them. I've been running my own businesses for the last 25 years and although finally successful at it - the learning's never stop.

PEB's underlying story have changed hugely!

Investing is about ascertaining first a company's investment fundamentals, and then ongoing assessment of how the company is tracking against the fundamentals.

When a company is running way behind its self-declared goals and objectives, fundamentals change - it is obvious it is not running to plan. This means that revenues, margins, costs, profits and cash flow are compromised. More so when the company, like PEB, is in a dynamic sector.

PEB openly stated in its last capital raising that the $20m would take it to profitability. It obviously has not. Means it is encountering issues it did not plan for, expected and/or cannot managed. Risks have increased exponentially.

Delay in getting real traction (and we have seen many delays) means more capital, lost opportunities and margins (remember the bold US$300 to US$500 a test?) will not be achieved. Risks have increased.

Getting more capital from shareholders and investors mean payoff is becoming less and less likely.

The proof of what I am writing? Go to Pike River Coal where I warned that the delays and problems encountered by the company meant underlying story had changed and risks ahd increased exponentially. Until the mine blew up, there were many on that thread who accused me of short term-ism, downramping and every sin conceivable. Tragic but true.

[blu3]

I can't find Hancocks' posts on this thread anymore, are they gone?

[Balance]

I can't find Hancocks' posts on this thread anymore, are they gone?

I will risk being banned by stating the obvious - Hancocks posts and deletes as he is consistently ramping up PEB's prospects but wants no comeback on his postings.

Anyone else doing the same would have been banned a long time ago.

[TJP]

Found this whilst bungling around the internet. http://www.urotoday.com/2014-09-18-02-47-34/bladder-cancer/80955-research-shows-pacific-edge-s-cxbladder-detect-outperforms-other-non-invasive-bladder-cancer-diagnostics.html

[winner69]

V
v
haha... I here DD is off on an African safari next year so expect him to soon announce what an exciting opportunity Africa is for PEB so the company can wear the bill.

Reminds of the fancy African safari jaunt the Feltex guys took not long before their demise

[skid]

Feltex, Rakon, Plus SMS, Snakk, Genesis, Seadragon, Bliss etc etc and all the failed finance companies must feel very abandoned by the seasoned investors even when the newies piled in?

There is a time to invest, and there is a time to divest. All depends on whether a company lives up to expectations and its assertions to investors.

In the case of PEB, the company is way behind on its traction against its hype. Too many examples now (after the years of hype and promises) of reality not measuring up to hype, but let me give you another one :

August 2014 Hype : "The Kaiser Permanente User Program research project is planned to recruit approximately 2000 patients presenting with microscopic and macroscopic
hematuria (blood in the urine), from the 3.7 million members of Kaiser Permanente Southern California. The User Program research is scheduled to begin later this year with results
completed in early 2015."

May 2015 Reality : "First tests are expected in next few weeks".

No updates between the much hyped up sp positive announcement in August 2014 and May 2015 (9 months by my seasoned calculation) so shareholders are expected to do their own research to find out that NOTHING was going to plan?

Luckily, some of us DOOR (do our own research). Some posters here who I have shared research information here know what I mean.

You forgot the bit where DD said it would be early 2016 now for KP:confused:

[winner69]

I can't find Hancocks' posts on this thread anymore, are they gone?

Was this the post you were after -


Originally Posted by Hancocks
My opinion is that the results were in-line with the analysts Forsyth Barr ($3.1M) and Edison Research ($3.4M) – total revenue was $4,132,000 including grants and research rebates, that's OK.

We are rolling out a product that has cost a lot of real money to develop. They are expensive tests for insurers because of the development costs, not because they are getting ‘ripped’ and we have still produced this cheaper than any other company could develop; so we have a great advantage there. A lot of the intellectual contribution has been by Pacific Edge Limited, the University of Otago, development grants (e.g. Callaghan Fund) R&D rebates and of course the stalwart angel investors. But a growth opportunity like this takes money and investors with an appropriate risk profile.

Attachment 7373

It has been a long haul getting this product rolled out, but we definitely are getting there, I wouldn’t get too down in the mouth just yet.

Attachment 7374

The FMA issue was just unfortunate and I think a public warning and Pacific Edge offering compensation is the best negotiated outcome you could hope for; it was a hiding to nothing and not worth a fight really – opinion against opinion, just look at this thread for an example.

The rights issue was a surprise for two reasons, one 50mins after the results and the amount; however, when you read the documentation – it all fits in my opinion.

The rights issue will provide Pacific Edge with the funding to:

• Expand its sales force in the US from 12 to 18 to service 19 major metro regions in the US

• Complete the evaluation of South East Asia, and if favourable, launch operations in Singapore as an entry point

• Complete the commercialisation of its third and fourth Cxbladder diagnostic tests, Cxbladder Monitor and Cxbladder Predict

• Bring new product technology and product improvements through to its markets

• Strengthen the balance sheet, allowing Pacific Edge to take advantage of any commercial opportunities which arise.


Grow the US business $3.7M FY16 & $4.2M FY17 Implementation of the increased sales force and targeted marketing programs.

Bring Cxbladder Monitor & Cxbladder Predict to the market $1.1M FY16 & $1.3M FY17.

Enter the South East Asian market $0.7M FY16 & $3.1M FY17.

So the above totals $5.5M FY16 & $8.6M FY17 for specific outflows = $14.1M

In FY16, Pacific Edge anticipates net cash outflow including specifically earmarked initiatives and existing operations of $15.2M

$14.1M & $15.2M = $29.3M they 'Pacific Edge' are raising $35M - makes sense.

[Mista_Trix]

Was this the post you were after -

...do you save all his posts?? :-S

[skid]

As usual...you missed the point. Look at the bigger picture Balance instead of concentrating on the person.

However, judging by your comments, now that you and your "seasoned investors" have got in and then abandoned this fledgling company before they have even really started trading - let alone a profit (but not before making your profit of course) ... are you suggesting everyone else should follow your example?

Makes me wonder what the proper definition of a "seasoned investor" really is.

Its always about horrible investors playing the market to make a profit and screw everyone in the minds of those followers at all costs isnt it? Its easier than thinking the situation through.
I bought in before an announcement (the first bad one) I got out with a 10% loss and learned a lesson.
Later when it went down to 65 I decided to give the management the benefit of the doubt and give it another go--I was happy to be on board and give the management a chance --but this time I set limits--the price rose but at a certain point it started to studder losing momentum when it fell to my ''limit'' I sold -(I was'nt going to make the same mistake twice) I made a profit that time,but I sold to prevent getting fleeced again--that was at 86c (It had gone up in the 90s before heading back down)--I didnt sell to ''play the market''-I sold to keep myself alive(at the risk of lost opportunity) a bird in the hand,as they say---Ive no apologies for that--Its such a great product that I dont like the idea of management wasting the opportunity----Im not complaining about the overall profit though (If you like Ill send you a ''wish you were here''with photo of my bungalow (budget) from Thailand in about a month.:):)

[skid]

Meanwhile Is Mac still banned? Did he get a longer sentence than the others? Im sensing the calm before the storm.

Hancocks--Dont go! You helped show us how great the product really is --If other things are going astray (or not) stick around and contribute your thoughts.

(I really wanted to hear your take on my questions) It was'nt sarcasm

If it makes you feel any better i sold out of NAN to lock in some profits (as it was starting to look scarey at the time)and the SP took off again after(so i guess i won and lost at the same time!)

[Balance]

Meanwhile Is Mac still banned? Did he get a longer sentence than the others? Im sensing the calm before the storm.

Hancocks--Dont go! You helped show us how great the product really is --If other things are going astray (or not) stick around and contribute your thoughts.

(I really wanted to hear your take on my questions) It was'nt sarcasm

If it makes you feel any better i sold out of NAN to lock in some profits (as it was starting to look scarey at the time)and the SP took off again after(so i guess i won and lost at the same time!)

MAC is unbanned and has been so since yesterday. Sp says it all in terms of what the market thinks of PEB.

Hancocks will continue posting, have no fear. He just does not like any comeback on his postings.

[Balance]

You forgot the bit where DD said it would be early 2016 now for KP:confused:

Delays mean lost opportunities and loss of competitive positioning.

One Australian competitor has entered the same space as PEB and launched into the States with a US JV partner. Their test is going to be sold at US$100 to US$150 per test according to their FDA filing.

PEB can kiss the US$300 to US$500 a test expectations goodbye. Likewise, the US$100m sales target.

A simple google search will show you what those of us who track the industry know.

[Minerbarejet]

Delays mean lost opportunities and loss of competitive positioning.

One Australian competitor has entered the same space as PEB and launched into the States with a US JV partner. Their test is going to be sold at US$100 to US$150 per test according to their FDA filing.

PEB can kiss the US$300 to US$500 a test expectations goodbye. Likewise, the US$100m sales target.

A simple google search will show you what those of us who track the industry know.Are we talking about Sienna and Geron?

[winner69]

At least Salt believe the story .... Bought some more shares over the last year

Always follow the smart money

[Balance]

At least Salt believe the story .... Bought some more shares over the last year

Always follow the smart money

Looks like they have been the main buyer in the last few weeks to take them above the 1% increase threshold?

Most likely to be a sub-underwriter too.

[Balance]

There is no doubt in my mind that cx bladder is best in breed but I don't think PEB is the right vehicle to successfully(successfully means create enough revenue to make a fair business profit) commercialise it.
Balance is right when he says...... Delays mean lost opportunities and loss of competitive positioning.
Another large capital raising, after they had already said the last one would carry the company through to profitability,(they are not anywhere near it), clearly indicates that PEB is out of it's depth with the commercialisation of it's products.
Yet the company line is it still believe's sales are tracking to expectations. WTF
Can someone please tell DD that the companies own stated expectations were that the last round of capital raising was going to carry the company through to profitability so how the hell can the company be tracking to expectation.

Keep lowering expectations and a company is guaranteed to meet 'expectations'.

Where's the credibility and accountability with PEB?

[Balance]

Are we talking about Sienna and Geron?

Forget about Geron.

Do more research on Sienna, especially their FDA filing.

[Dentie]

Keep lowering expectations and a company is guaranteed to meet 'expectations'.

Where's the credibility and accountability with PEB?

SP seems to be holding today - Salt is up for more...but you and a couple of others have a problem.

Given your commitment to this cause Balance, why haven't you gone to the FMA and made a formal complaint? Make them be accountable! Especially as you predicted Pike River and Rakon and Snakk and... and ...and....

[Balance]

SP seems to be holding today - Salt is up for more...but you and a couple of others have a problem.

Given your commitment to this cause Balance, why haven't you gone to the FMA and made a formal complaint? Make them be accountable! Especially as you predicted Pike River and Rakon and Snakk and... and ...and....

$500k down and you want the company's shareholders to take more potential punishment?

I have not lost money on PEB, unlike others, so I am happy to post for the benefit of those who do not believe PEB's statements are gospel truths.

I am very open about the fact that I was a believer but sold out when it became clear to me that PEB was not forthcoming and transparent with the real state of affairs.

Example (again just for you), have a read of what they said about their cash position at the AGM last year
- 'The Board is comfortable that sufficient funds are in place to support the
Company's planned development and growth strategy'.

And this in the ODT today : "When asked about the rate of cash burn in the past year, of $12.6 million, Mr Darling said it was ''highly expected'' and handled under the company's ''tight budgetary processes''.

Highly expected? As big a porkie as will ever be uttered by a CEO in the context of the $20m raised 2 years ago being sufficient to take the company to profitability.

Then, he uttered the immortal words : " unable to predict a break-even point for the 13-year-old company". Totally unacceptable.

Trust my hard owned money with this scientist?

[Balance]

Watch the window dressing at close of trade today.

Desperation showing with the underwriter and sub-underwriters?

[winner69]

$500k down and you want the company's shareholders to take more potential punishment?

I have not lost money on PEB, unlike others, so I am happy to post for the benefit of those who do not believe PEB's statements are gospel truths.

I am very open about the fact that I was a believer but sold out when it became clear to me that PEB was not forthcoming and transparent with the real state of affairs.

Example (again just for you), have a read of what they said about their cash position at the AGM last year.

And this in the ODT today : "When asked about the rate of cash burn in the past year, of $12.6 million, Mr Darling said it was ''highly expected'' and handled under the company's ''tight budgetary processes''.

Highly expected? As big a porkie as will ever be uttered by a CEO in the context of the $20m raised 2 years ago being sufficient to take the company to profitability.

Then, he uttered the immortal words : " unable to predict a break-even point for the 13-year-old company". Totally unacceptable.

Trust my hard owned money with this scientist?

Cash flow been under tight control for a while now. Darling said this last November at he analyst briefing -


We continue to achieve our expansion goals whilst keeping firm control of our cash burn. We are a lean growth company.


And later on he told hsrtley enough cash for all of FY16 ....umm

[Balance]

NBR weekend reading - "Pacific Edge Serves Harsh Dessert For Shareholders'.

Bet you some choice postings from ST regarding cash burn and failed delivery of expectations are included in the article.

Ouch when market opens on Tuesday morning?

[couta1]

This thread really has become Troll city.

[Master98]

This thread really has become Troll city.

lol, thought you are already in hibernation mode.

[couta1]

lol, thought you are already in hibernation mode.
Heading their now mate as I've got nothing more to add on here even though I'm a Peb holder.

[Minerbarejet]

This thread really has become Troll city.
There seems to be a somewhat reduced preponderance of pleasant and restrained dialogue peppered with humour and bonhomie, at the moment, couta.

[Dentie]

Delays mean lost opportunities and loss of competitive positioning.

One Australian competitor has entered the same space as PEB and launched into the States with a US JV partner. Their test is going to be sold at US$100 to US$150 per test according to their FDA filing.

PEB can kiss the US$300 to US$500 a test expectations goodbye. Likewise, the US$100m sales target.

A simple google search will show you what those of us who track the industry know.

Oh stop sensationalising things Balance - it's becoming more than an obsessed emotional rant now...

I bought some more socks the other day (cold here in Wgton...). I could have gone to many shops to buy them ...Hallensteins, the Warehouse, the Supermarket, KMart, Big W, Salvation Army etc etc. I could even have darned my existing ones!! But I bought them at the Farmers and paid three times the price that I could have got at the Warehouse ....why? Because I was in the Farmers buying a nice jacket and I tossed the socks in while I was there. I'm sure you get my point?

Sienna (& any other firm for that matter) are entitled to enter the market and compete with PEB. They have decided they are going to compete with PEB on price ... which is always a dangerous ploy. PEB have clearly demonstrated they not only have best in breed - BUT they have the whole suite of complementary products - a one stop shop as DD likes to say. Good luck to Sienna. I am happy if PEB manage to only get a total of 20% of the market.

You have made some serious statements over the past little while. Are you going to the FMA , or not?

[Carpenterjoe]

Wow, I've never heard so much dribble in all my life, must be raining in New Zealand. I know kiwis are a negative bunch, but golly gosh.

[Tsuba]

There seems to be a somewhat reduced preponderance of pleasant and restrained dialogue peppered with humour and bonhomie, at the moment, couta.

Yes Miner the Guinea Fowl and I agree 100% with you on that.

[Carpenterjoe]

For those that care


http://www.uhsurology.com/CLINICAL-TRIALS.aspx

[skid]

dont worry guys--things will settle down to chickens and peacocks in a while--

just gotta figure out how ta move dem color tvs first (just dont have the same ring when you substitute bladder tests)

Taint fair -dats fer sher-dat der Amerikin market - dag Nabbit!!---We shud put dem in dose boxes of cerial or dem dar vending masines--or somthin like dat!!

[forest]

OK, a lot of us seem to be disappointed of yet an other capital raising. As balance has pointed out this is in contradiction to what PEB made us expect when the last CR was carried out. Although I am disappointed like so many others, I still think DD has a value-able part to play in PEB. He seems a very capable scientist to me.
However we should not expect to much of one person and PEB needs the right person to take care of the commercial success of its products. To me it seems to be the job of the board to facilitate this and if the board is not able to do this then it is up to the shareholders to change the board including the chair.
Has that time arrived?

[Minerbarejet]

OK, a lot of us seem to be disappointed of yet an other capital raising. As balance has pointed out this is in contradiction to what PEB made us expect when the last CR was carried out. Although I am disappointed like so many others, I still think DD has a value-able part to play in PEB. He seems a very capable scientist to me.
However we should not expect to much of one person and PEB needs the right person to take care of the commercial success of its products. To me it seems to be the job of the board to facilitate this and if the board is not able to do this then it is up to the shareholders to change the board including the chair.
Has that time arrived?At the last capital raising the the mood of the affected parties was completely opposite to this one. There was a serious degree of elation over the signing of Fedmed, Americas Choice, Stratose and the offering was oversubscribed.
The offering was pretty much entirely about getting traction for detect and various members of this thread, including some who are a tad disillusioned, were extremely happy to get a bunch of shares at 55c with the (head) shares at roughly double that.
Things have changed. Now there is doom and gloom as things arent quite as easy as first thought. In addition there have been two needs identified that require a fairly rapid response. One is to launch Triage in the States and the other to get a foot in the door in Asia. Neither of these got much if a mention in the last CR as there was no idea as to when triage might get accepted and published.
This is relatively new. There is also the extended delay with CMS signing which may or may not be the result of anything PEB has or has not done. We need better guidance on that one, thanks Dave.

[Balance]

Oh stop sensationalising things Balance - it's becoming more than an obsessed emotional rant now...

I bought some more socks the other day (cold here in Wgton...). I could have gone to many shops to buy them ...Hallensteins, the Warehouse, the Supermarket, KMart, Big W, Salvation Army etc etc. I could even have darned my existing ones!! But I bought them at the Farmers and paid three times the price that I could have got at the Warehouse ....why? Because I was in the Farmers buying a nice jacket and I tossed the socks in while I was there. I'm sure you get my point?

Sienna (& any other firm for that matter) are entitled to enter the market and compete with PEB. They have decided they are going to compete with PEB on price ... which is always a dangerous ploy. PEB have clearly demonstrated they not only have best in breed - BUT they have the whole suite of complementary products - a one stop shop as DD likes to say. Good luck to Sienna. I am happy if PEB manage to only get a total of 20% of the market.

You have made some serious statements over the past little while. Are you going to the FMA , or not?

Socks ain't tests and tests ain't trousers or shirts.

Forget about PEB getting 2% of the market, let alone 20%. The slow uptake of CxBladder in NZ, Australia and Spain (after the years and millions spent to show $120,000 of sales in 2015) tells you all you need to know.

As for the FMA, if the shoe fits, wear it. I have not been taken in by their misstatements - you and a few others obviously have.

Maybe, you would like to go through how the first rights issue would take them to profitability, how at the AGM last year, there was plenty of cash left for 2016 etc etc again?

Or with Kaiser Permanente? How results were going to be early 2015 and with no updates between announcements, suddenly it's now going to be much later?

Your call.

[Balance]

At the last capital raising the the mood of the affected parties was completely opposite to this one. There was a serious degree of elation over the signing of Fedmed, Americas Choice, Stratose and the offering was oversubscribed.
The offering was pretty much entirely about getting traction for detect and various members of this thread, including some who are a tad disillusioned, were extremely happy to get a bunch of shares at 55c with the (head) shares at roughly double that.
Things have changed. Now there is doom and gloom as things arent quite as easy as first thought. In addition there have been two needs identified that require a fairly rapid response. One is to launch Triage in the States and the other to get a foot in the door in Asia. Neither of these got much if a mention in the last CR as there was no idea as to when triage might get accepted and published.
This is relatively new. There is also the extended delay with CMS signing which may or may not be the result of anything PEB has or has not done. We need better guidance on that one, thanks Dave.

Ask Dave to give better guidance on the number of tests done in the States, the conversion rate from user program to actual sales and the price per test achieved. That would be a good start, don't you think?

My assessment is that PEB is burning through the cash, hiring staff, doing the user programs, getting bugger all take up and any take up is at low rates (not US$300 a test) - hence PEB is terrified of disclosing any real numbers.

Easier to talk about exciting opportunities and raise more capital to keep burning cash, hoping for a breakthrough.

Deal with the here and now, rather than the 'exciting opportunities to exciting new markets with excited doctors and urologists.'

[Minerbarejet]

Dear Mr Balance,
Due to the constraints of time imposed on me by family matters, cooking and housecleaning duties, a need to paint the eaves and other woodwork two stories up and general yard maintenance, could you be so kind as to provide a link directly to the source of your information, if available, whenever you post allegations that may be worth following up.
This would help immensely for not only myself but others who go onto google for something and end up on a wild needle chase looking for a goose in a haystack.
I dont think I would be the first person to go onto Google and get sidetracked to the point where you forget what you went there for.
Advancing years may have something to do with it as well but in the meantime we will put it down to exploration.
Thanking you in advance for your cooperation in this matter,
Yours sincerely,
Miner

[Minerbarejet]

Ask Dave to give better guidance on the number of tests done in the States, the conversion rate from user program to actual sales and the price per test achieved. That would be a good start, don't you think?

My assessment is that PEB is burning through the cash, hiring staff, doing the user programs, getting bugger all take up and any take up is at low rates (not US$300 a test) - hence PEB is terrified of disclosing any real numbers.

Easier to talk about exciting opportunities and raise more capital to keep burning cash, hoping for a breakthrough.

Deal with the here and now, rather than the 'exciting opportunities to exciting new markets with excited doctors and urologists.'You have me at a disadvantage because I have to wait for that transcript, - where the heck is it!
Audio is definitely not my thing.

[Dentie]

Socks ain't tests and tests ain't trousers or shirts.

Forget about PEB getting 2% of the market, let alone 20%. The slow uptake of CxBladder in NZ, Australia and Spain (after the years and millions spent to show $120,000 of sales in 2015) tells you all you need to know.

As for the FMA, if the shoe fits, wear it. I have not been taken in by their misstatements - you and a few others obviously have.

Maybe, you would like to go through how the first rights issue would take them to profitability, how at the AGM last year, there was plenty of cash left for 2016 etc etc again?

Or with Kaiser Permanente? How results were going to be early 2015 and with no updates between announcements, suddenly it's now going to be much later?

Your call.

I have no need to go to the FMA because I don't think DD et al has done anything to warrant it. You're the one appearing to claim DD has been lying to (misleading?) the market.

I firmly believe that at all times of their decision making and subsequent announcements to the market, DD & CS have genuinely acted on the facts and information available to them at those particular times. I also believe that agreements and intentions entered into with other parties are done so in the best of good faith at the time. Despite this, as anyone who has been in business will know, events can (& do) happen that are out of any and all the parties' control. Missing deadlines and changing circumstances etc happen daily for thousands of people. Please let me know if you want examples of this Balance....

I always see the letters "DYOR" on all threads and forums ... and for good reason. We all think differently, we all have different tolerances, we all understand the facts differently so it would be foolish for people to invest their money - based on someone else's research or someone else understandings of the facts. To be open about this, I am happy to disclose that I de-risked from PEB many months ago. Having said that, I still have a hefty weighting of my portfolio in PEB. That was done based on my own interpretation of PEB's situation. If I am wrong and I lose every part of my investment - then so be it.

At this point I am still a big believer in what they are doing. I have booked my flight and accommodation to attend this years AGM - as usual, and am looking forward to listening to the Q & A session.

In the meantime Balance, if you are not prepared to go to the FMA (or similar regulator) to inform them of your strongly held concerns (which you are happy to warn all of us on here of), I would understand how some newbies may lose confidence in your credibility.

[Dentie]

Genuine apologies if anyone hit that Nigerian Link.

Can't trust anyone these days ....

[Minerbarejet]

yes agreed, I don't think PEB have deliberately tried to misled investors but given how many time's PEB have missed deadlines and now missed budget forecast at what point do you say they are incompetent and not up to the task of delivering successful commercialisation.
Personally I say that is another 12-18 months away but lets be honest the signs are there that all is not going well.
Very happy to watch this one from the side lines at the moment.Sure, agreed that there are some signs that thinks arent going too well at the moment however there are probably an equal number of signs that things are going well. Suppose you could say things are fairly evenly balanced.
Would hazard a guess that your happiness increases expotentially with the share price dropping knowing your entry point is getting lower.:)

[Balance]

Sure, agreed that there are some signs that thinks arent going too well at the moment however there are probably an equal number of signs that things are going well. Suppose you could say things are fairly evenly balanced.
Would hazard a guess that your happiness increases expotentially with the share price dropping knowing your entry point is getting lower.:)

For the benefit of newies, that's what a share price does - rise and fall in response to positive and negative developments with a company. It's a risk/reward adjustment mechanism.

So why would anyone's happiness increase exponentially as a sp falls? The sp falling actually means that the market is taking heed of negative developments and making the call that the company's prospects of being successful are dimming.

Capital raisings are par for the course with biotech and biomed companies when they are commercializing.

The successful ones raise capital with an up-trending share price.

Bliss and Genesis are excellent examples of stocks enthusiastically embraced by investors but raising funds with a downtrending share price. The wise got out while the fools piled in.

[skid]

Sure, agreed that there are some signs that thinks arent going too well at the moment however there are probably an equal number of signs that things are going well. Suppose you could say things are fairly evenly balanced.
Would hazard a guess that your happiness increases expotentially with the share price dropping knowing your entry point is getting lower.:)

I dont think PEB has intentionally done bad things either(well,maybe some small misleadings for the good of the company and SP)

I think the things that are going well have to do with the product--and the things that arent going well have to do with selling the product.

I believe they desperately need someone who is a specialist in that area. This is complicated because we dont know enough how the American medical market actually works in detail.
We know that some large pharm companies have a budget that allows then to lobby to doctors which includes lots of sweeteners such as dinners -weekends away at resorts-etc to promote their range of products-PEB obviuosly does not have the budget for that. Perhaps more would agree that going it alone has a serious shortfall in that area.
There obviously needs to be some other strategy to promote the product (while we wait for the KP results and hopefully CMS coverage)
But I dont think we can rely on that to push things through--We dont know what kind of a bargain they will strike if it does come to pass.
somehow they need to get the product recognized to the extent that the patient demands the best product (thats a hard one because patients dont really know about that sort of thing)Its a big world in terms of medicine. The next step is for doctors to demand the best product for their patients-they are the next step in the process.
I believe they need to somehow insert the CX test after the normal blood tests a doctor would do,but before the sending off to the Urologist - To me it seems far better for doctors to use CX as the next logical step BEFORE the urologist--Which is why I think targeting urologists is not the best approach--Now that there is at least some concrete evidence that CX is the best performer -somehow that needs to get through to Doctors ,rather than just Urologists.
The very first basic step is to ask yourself''how do doctors know what tests or products to prescribe?'' (or course they all know about blood tests -but where to from there?) Newsletters?--Pamphlets?( bladder cancer detection has gotten a whole lot easier with CX)

There has been some serious cash burn-and there is going to be more--so we might as well be doing it right--marketing guru?

Even a commission to a large player could work --after all ,its about numbers of tests sold. There must be large players out there who are looking for easy opportunities to compete in any field they are yet to enter.

Most agree,there is a problem--Its now up to management to figure the best way to deal with it.

[Minerbarejet]

What do you think cxbladder triage is then, skid?

[skid]

Ok So they brought the wrong product out first--no ones perfect


And Miner--Are'nt you suppose to be doing those Eves? (You might have left it a bit late in the year mate.)

[Balance]

My exit point was guided by poor sales traction (95 cps) so my re entry point is way more guided by proof of sales traction rather than the share price.
I would imagine if the share price goes lower in the future it is a sure sign that incompetence has been confirmed and snaps does not invest in incompetence....... not at any price.

Bang on, Snaps.

Dare I add - never invest in lack of accountability and lack of transparency too for me.

[Apathy]

In the meantime Balance, if you are not prepared to go to the FMA (or similar regulator) to inform them of your strongly held concerns (which you are happy to warn all of us on here of), I would understand how some newbies may lose confidence in your credibility.

Credibility AND anonymous forums are mutually exclusive - the least credible are the mindless posts of the cheerleader fraternity looking to mitigate their poor investment decisions by talking up the the dead and dying.

PEB is like a myriad off previous (and impending) failures looking to sell hype instead of building a sound base business. Cash flow is king - always has and always will be.

Unfortunately in this instance it genuinely looks like a good product - or is that just me being sucked into hype?

[Balance]

In the meantime Balance, if you are not prepared to go to the FMA (or similar regulator) to inform them of your strongly held concerns (which you are happy to warn all of us on here of), I would understand how some newbies may lose confidence in your credibility.

I have no fear of my credibility given the money I have saved for those who read and listened to my views on Pike River, NZOG, Snakk etc.

Thanks anyway for your concern but you need not. :D

[percy]

I have no fear of my credibility given the money I have saved for those who read and listened to my views on Pike River, NZOG, Snakk etc.

Thanks anyway for your concern but you need not. :D

AND made others good money with sage advice on Heartland.

[Sgt Pepper]

I dont think PEB has intentionally done bad things either(well,maybe some small misleadings for the good of the company and SP)

I think the things that are going well have to do with the product--and the things that arent going well have to do with selling the product.

I believe they desperately need someone who is a specialist in that area. This is complicated because we dont know enough how the American medical market actually works in detail.
We know that some large pharm companies have a budget that allows then to lobby to doctors which includes lots of sweeteners such as dinners -weekends away at resorts-etc to promote their range of products-PEB obviuosly does not have the budget for that. Perhaps more would agree that going it alone has a serious shortfall in that area.
There obviously needs to be some other strategy to promote the product (while we wait for the KP results and hopefully CMS coverage)
But I dont think we can rely on that to push things through--We dont know what kind of a bargain they will strike if it does come to pass.
somehow they need to get the product recognized to the extent that the patient demands the best product (thats a hard one because patients dont really know about that sort of thing)Its a big world in terms of medicine. The next step is for doctors to demand the best product for their patients-they are the next step in the process.
I believe they need to somehow insert the CX test after the normal blood tests a doctor would do,but before the sending off to the Urologist - To me it seems far better for doctors to use CX as the next logical step BEFORE the urologist--Which is why I think targeting urologists is not the best approach--Now that there is at least some concrete evidence that CX is the best performer -somehow that needs to get through to Doctors ,rather than just Urologists.
The very first basic step is to ask yourself''how do doctors know what tests or products to prescribe?'' (or course they all know about blood tests -but where to from there?) Newsletters?--Pamphlets?( bladder cancer detection has gotten a whole lot easier with CX)

There has been some serious cash burn-and there is going to be more--so we might as well be doing it right--marketing guru?

Even a commission to a large player could work --after all ,its about numbers of tests sold. There must be large players out there who are looking for easy opportunities to compete in any field they are yet to enter.

Most agree,there is a problem--Its now up to management to figure the best way to deal with it.

I work at Dunedin Hospital. The home city of Pacific Edge. To be quite honest I am not sure if CX bladder is utilised when someone is admitted with haematuria( blood in urine).

[enzed staffy]

its not! DHB won't fund it in lab. I asked for it/about it 18months ago

[Dentie]

its not! DHB won't fund it in lab. I asked for it/about it 18months ago

Typical. Costs lots of dollars to produce a best in breed suite of tests which is non-invasive and second to none in accuracy around the world. But still they won't embrace it - unless its free! Mind you, if I was a victim, I am sure I would find $500 from somewhere.

Crazy.

[Tsuba]

I think this is typical of the NZ health system and not a reflection on PEB. My father was killed by the Christchurch hospital due to incompetence.

[barney]

Typical. Costs lots of dollars to produce a best in breed suite of tests which is non-invasive and second to none in accuracy around the world. But still they won't embrace it - unless its free! Mind you, if I was a victim, I am sure I would find $500 from somewhere.

Crazy.

Last year some time I was driving up to the high country for a days fishing. On the way I listened to David Darling being interviewed by Catherine Ryan on nine to noon. The interview was mainly about the difficulties in dealing with the NZ health system/DHBs.

David described dealing with the DHBs as something akin to " wading through treacle." Kind of summed it up.

I would recommend some folks on this thread buying a fishing road and heading for the high country. Life is to darn short to spend your days getting wound up about a company you don't believe in.

As for me. I always figured that success in the US was mainly dependent on a successful outcome with the large players such as CMS, KP etc. It has taken longer than we would like but I think they will get there so I'll be taking up the rights issue.

[skid]

Typical. Costs lots of dollars to produce a best in breed suite of tests which is non-invasive and second to none in accuracy around the world. But still they won't embrace it - unless its free! Mind you, if I was a victim, I am sure I would find $500 from somewhere.

Crazy.

So the NZ market is not playing ball--And the US market is not an easy one to crack (so far)--so thats a start--At least you have the knowledge that it is not always an easy rd even for top notch products.--So the next question is how is the KP trials going to work out (red tape?) and then how straight forward CMS coverage is to achieve(Is it quick,once the trail is finished and the ducks are lined up?)
How important in terms of PR is FDA approval?
There have been trials now completed--Is that enough to try with CMS.
Until then the PR and salesmen have to at least earn their keep to keep the companies head above water(so sales at least equal costs or at least alot closer than this result)
pushing into new markets and increasing sales staff can be good -but not necessarily at this stage.
One needs to identify the problem ,in order to create a solution.
We have heard what happens when you go to the doc in Southland--Whats the normal procedure in the USA--Is CX even available through normal channels?
We have been second guessing what will happen as a matter of course in the USA--Maybe its time to look a bit closer.

Sometimes its harder to crack procedural issues than it is scientific solutions. It sucks ,but thats the real world--If they can get over that hurdle then there will be some happy campers,new and old.

[Minerbarejet]

https://www.suna.org/download/events/15conference/15exhibitProspectus.pdf

So who was there last year?

[Balance]

So the NZ market is not playing ball--And the US market is not an easy one to crack (so far)--so thats a start--At least you have the knowledge that it is not always an easy rd even for top notch products.--So the next question is how is the KP trials going to work out (red tape?) and then how straight forward CMS coverage is to achieve(Is it quick,once the trail is finished and the ducks are lined up?)
How important in terms of PR is FDA approval?
There have been trials now completed--Is that enough to try with CMS.
Until then the PR and salesmen have to at least earn their keep to keep the companies head above water(so sales at least equal costs or at least alot closer than this result)
pushing into new markets and increasing sales staff can be good -but not necessarily at this stage.
One needs to identify the problem ,in order to create a solution.
We have heard what happens when you go to the doc in Southland--Whats the normal procedure in the USA--Is CX even available through normal channels?
We have been second guessing what will happen as a matter of course in the USA--Maybe its time to look a bit closer.

Sometimes its harder to crack procedural issues than it is scientific solutions. It sucks ,but thats the real world--If they can get over that hurdle then there will be some happy campers,new and old.

I believe you are starting to ask the right, pertinent and probing questions which PEB management need to be able to answer.

The evidence to date is that PEB does not know how to commercialize.

NZ, Australia and Spain have gone nowhere. Proof - $120,000 (yes, $120,000) of sales after 4 years of CxBladder and millions of dollars spent! PEB is now blaming the NZ health system for ignoring their value proposition?

In the US, PEB appears to be failing to get traction as 'tens of thousands' of tests are carried out with a low rate of conversion to real sales. We have only management words that PEB is 'on track'.

Now it's exciting times to be had - PEB is excited to work with excited health professionals in exciting Singapore and SEA.

Whatever happened to making the US really work first?

[Balance]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/233718

Read this announcement from 2013 and it is clear the statement that 'CxBladder is steadily gaining momentum in Australia and New Zealand' etc etc is not measuring up to the hype.

$120,000 of sales in NZ and Australia in 2015 after 2 years of appointing a full time commercial manager - he is not even covering his travel expenses!

[skid]

Im not the best at comparing scientific results--In terms of knowing your competition ,just wondering how this one stacks up--trial is due out about the same time as KP

http://www.fiercediagnostics.com/press-releases/positive-clinical-results-oncocytes-panc-dx-diagnostic-test-demonstrate-hig

Cheers

[Balance]

Im not the best at comparing scientific results--In terms of knowing your competition ,just wondering how this one stacks up--trial is due out about the same time as KP

http://www.fiercediagnostics.com/press-releases/positive-clinical-results-oncocytes-panc-dx-diagnostic-test-demonstrate-hig

Cheers

Time and tide stand still for on one - lest of all a company like PEB which is surviving on hype.

[Minerbarejet]

Investor Relations or General Media Enquiries:Email: office@pacificedge.co.nz

Perhaps the above may be of help in your concerns.

[Tsuba]

Investor Relations or General Media Enquiries:

Email: office@pacificedge.co.nz

Perhaps the above may be of help in your concerns.



They may not get the answer they were hopeing for. Better to surf the conspiricy theory pages.

[Dentie]

Im not the best at comparing scientific results--In terms of knowing your competition ,just wondering how this one stacks up--trial is due out about the same time as KP

http://www.fiercediagnostics.com/press-releases/positive-clinical-results-oncocytes-panc-dx-diagnostic-test-demonstrate-hig

Cheers

How their results stack up against CxBladder Predict, Triage etc and the fact that they are well behind PEB's timeline and the so-called obstacles ahead will be immaterial.

What they have going for them is they are a yankee outfit. This in itself will be enough to make a big public fan-fared splash into the bladder cancer market. PEB's sign up with the CMS, VA and KP will be made to "mark time" until after OncoCyte have got themselves operating in the market. The US will then announce to the world how they are the leaders in this market of cutting edge technology & science and their population will all say "WOW, we are the world leaders in this as well...." They won't care about being labelled "Johnny come lately's" either.

No, not a hater of the US - just cynical about how they go about things (not just in medicine either !!).

If only we had ditched DD & CS a couple of years ago and replaced them with Balance and Skid, we would all be in the land of milk and honey now.

[emveha]

What they have going for them is they are a yankee outfit. This in itself will be enough to make a big public fan-fared splash into the bladder cancer market. PEB's sign up with the CMS, VA and KP will be made to "mark time" until after OncoCyte have got themselves operating in the market. The US will then announce to the world how they are the leaders in this market of cutting edge technology & science and their population will all say "WOW, we are the world leaders in this as well...." They won't care about being labelled "Johnny come lately's" either.

Does the American population really care? Most still believe Airbus is an American company, for instance.

[Minerbarejet]

How their results stack up against CxBladder Predict, Triage etc and the fact that they are well behind PEB's timeline and the so-called obstacles ahead will be immaterial.

What they have going for them is they are a yankee outfit. This in itself will be enough to make a big public fan-fared splash into the bladder cancer market. PEB's sign up with the CMS, VA and KP will be made to "mark time" until after OncoCyte have got themselves operating in the market. The US will then announce to the world how they are the leaders in this market of cutting edge technology & science and their population will all say "WOW, we are the world leaders in this as well...." They won't care about being labelled "Johnny come lately's" either.

No, not a hater of the US - just cynical about how they go about things (not just in medicine either !!).

If only we had ditched DD & CS a couple of years ago and replaced them with Balance and Skid, we would all be in the land of milk and honey now.
Spare Salt cellar being couriered over this afternoon.
Cheers
Miner

[Dentie]

Spare Salt cellar being couriered over this afternoon.
Cheers
Miner

Ha ha ha ....Why not courier over the whole salt mine ... you're the Miner!

[NT001]

...PEB is excited to work with excited health professionals in exciting Singapore and SEA. Whatever happened to making the US really work first?

I think that question was very clearly and convincingly answered by DD in the online question session, just as he explained the Spain situation. If PEB wasn't chasing Singapore and SEA right now (and apparently getting good initial responses), I'm sure some critics on this forum would be taking the opposite tack. Something like: "While the procedural wheels are taking an interminable time to grind in the US and DD and his team are being hopelessly out-manouvered there by rivals, they are ignoring big and more immediate opportunities elsewhere, like Singapore and SEA. Just shows how incompetent they are." We'll see.

[Minerbarejet]

Ha ha ha ....Why not courier over the whole salt mine ... you're the Miner!
Got a miner problem- divan is not big enough.

Goes against the grain like a few other things but we wont go into that.:)

[Tsuba]

The sad sacks are getting a good hammering today.

[Minerbarejet]

just like the recent share price ah.......:p
Right on cue with snappy repartee:)

[Dentie]

Got a miner problem- divan is not big enough.

Goes against the grain like a few other things but we wont go into that.:)

Well, although PEB may have been taking a miner wee bath lately, at least they still have a sweet smell.

[Balance]

I think that question was very clearly and convincingly answered by DD in the online question session, just as he explained the Spain situation. If PEB wasn't chasing Singapore and SEA right now (and apparently getting good initial responses), I'm sure some critics on this forum would be taking the opposite tack. Something like: "While the procedural wheels are taking an interminable time to grind in the US and DD and his team are being hopelessly out-manouvered there by rivals, they are ignoring big and more immediate opportunities elsewhere, like Singapore and SEA. Just shows how incompetent they are." We'll see.

Singapore and Asia take their lead and look to US for guidance when it comes to healthcare and the latest developments - believe you me as one of my contacts is head of one of the private hospitals there.

Has PEB explained why NZ, Australia and Spain are such dismal failures for CXBladder?

$150,000 external sales in 20105 after 4 years! Whatever happened to home advantage?

First questions asked by excited health professionals in other exciting countries with excitable opportunities will be around success of sales in existing markets.

[Minerbarejet]

Well, although PEB may have been taking a miner wee bath lately, at least they still have a sweet smell.
Must be those sweet pees you are growing.:)

[Minerbarejet]

Singapore and Asia look to US for guidance when it comes to healthcare and the latest developments - believe you me as one of my contacts is head of one of the private hospitals there.

Has PEB explained why NZ, Australia and Spain are such dismal failures for CXBladder?

$150,000 external sales in 20105 after 4 years! Whatever happened to home advantage?

First questions asked by excited health professionals in other exciting countries with excitable opportunities will be around success of sales in existing markets.
All this excitement must be catching.

[Balance]

All this excitement must be catching.

Beg to rephrase - "First excited questions asked by excited health professionals in other exciting countries with excitable opportunities will be around success of exciting sales in existing super excited markets'.

Now that's more to PEB's PR standard. :D

PS. In all seriousness, the use of the word 'excite' (one with also excited which implied 4 excite) in 2 sentences in their results announcement is worrying. The hype is now wearing off so use more 'excite'.

[couta1]

They may not get the answer they were hopeing for. Better to surf the conspiricy theory pages.
Trolls aren't after answers its all about self amusement for them and trying to discourage as many current holders as possible by controlling the thread ( Notice how the word controlling also contains a Troll)

[NT001]

Singapore and Asia take their lead and look to US for guidance when it comes to healthcare and the latest developments - believe you me as one of my contacts is head of one of the private hospitals there.
Has PEB explained why NZ, Australia and Spain are such dismal failures for CXBladder?


From my knowledge of the SE Asian market, institutions there don't sit around waiting for a lead from the US, especially when they've got wealthy international patients clamouring for the latest and best treatment and willing to pay big bucks for it, and have top-qualified specialists able to assess what is the best, as in Singapore.

As regards Spain, yes DD has explained the delay there. PEB's Spanish partner wasn't so interested in CxBladder Detect but is ready to roll when another part of the CXBladder suite becomes available inthe next few months.

[Crackity]

Couta - I like to see differing viewpoints on a thread - you can always disagree with their thoughts but often there is a kernel of truth there as well. This company does seem to be a faith stock - you either believe or you don't! I don't hold but am following. It sort of reminds me WDT unfortunately...regards!

[Tsuba]

just like the recent share price ah.......:p

Was prepared to put 10s of thousands of dollars on that comment coming out. Very clever.

[couta1]

Couta - I like to see differing viewpoints on a thread - you can always disagree with their thoughts but often there is a kernel of truth there as well. This company does seem to be a faith stock - you either believe or you don't! I don't hold but am following. It sort of reminds me WDT unfortunately...regards!
I'm all for differing viewpoints but once one has made their point/s then things should be dropped, personally I don't believe non holders should take control of a thread and sabotage it to the point where holders can't be bothered posting anymore primarily because they have become too weary to be bothered due to the constant negative rehashing going on over and over again anyway nuff said.

[NT001]

lol......so PEB signed up an exclusive JV partner 4 years ago that was not even interested in it products for at least another 4 years.
...
This from PEB in the May 2011 announcement about Spain.....
ORYZON TO MARKET PACIFIC EDGE NOVEL DIAGNOSTIC Cxbladder IN SPAIN & PORTUGAL

Pacific Edge Limited and Spanish company Oryzon S.A (Oryzon) have signed an
exclusive license agreement to market Pacific Edge''s (PE) novel diagnostic
test for the detection of bladder cancer, Cxbladder in Spain and Portugal.
Under the terms of the agreement, Oryzon will market and offer laboratory
services to urologists and general practitioners (GP) for the detection of Bladder cancer using CXbladder in Spain and Portugal.


Yes Snaps, I agree PEB could have some explaining to do there, although as one who has run or helped to run businesses in a fast-moving sector (not this one) I'm very aware that things outside one's control often happen unexpectedly. It was hard enough keeping board members in the loop, let alone shareholders. And I was a member of the Institute of Directors, with profound respect for the fiduciary duty owed to shareholders I was serving, who included a venture capital investor.

But listening to DD in his presentation last week I recalled what it was like, juggling numerous balls in the air as head of a not-large company and having to be able to modify strategy very fast - something NZ companies are reputedly good at. I thought DD did an excellent job addressing issues over a wide range. Okay, PEB have stuffed up on a couple of issues, but that happens. And we can always attack him for beginning every answer with "Yes that's a very good question". His PR advisers probably told him to do that, and does it matter?.

But from his presentation overall I was satisfied things are broadly on track (even though the track ahead is never clear) and I'll be taking up the capital raising offer.

Another thing not all shareholders may appreciate is the complexity of the cancer diagnostics and treatment business. As one who has recently had cancer experience and been using Google to keep up with the specialists treating me, I'm very aware that approvals of new treatments don't happen as fast as we'd like. But that's to be expected. The medical bureaucracy has a tough job keeping up, especially when approving the expenditure of public money.

The number of new treatments and diagnostic tools now becoming available globally is mind-blowing. And while there is room for many of them to be adopted to a limited extent, far fewer will stand out and become the standard treatments based on efficacy and price. Not based on how hard they are promoted by big Pharma. The specialists (and medical bureaucrats) know that big Pharma is less interested in curing patients than in keeping them under longterm expensive treatment. So I disagree with those who say PEB would de better by being taken captive by big Pharma.

It's a complex environment, and I think the CxBladder strategy is admirably constructed to achieve success.

[skid]

How their results stack up against CxBladder Predict, Triage etc and the fact that they are well behind PEB's timeline and the so-called obstacles ahead will be immaterial.

What they have going for them is they are a yankee outfit. This in itself will be enough to make a big public fan-fared splash into the bladder cancer market. PEB's sign up with the CMS, VA and KP will be made to "mark time" until after OncoCyte have got themselves operating in the market. The US will then announce to the world how they are the leaders in this market of cutting edge technology & science and their population will all say "WOW, we are the world leaders in this as well...." They won't care about being labelled "Johnny come lately's" either.

No, not a hater of the US - just cynical about how they go about things (not just in medicine either !!).

If only we had ditched DD & CS a couple of years ago and replaced them with Balance and Skid, we would all be in the land of milk and honey now.

I was just after some stats from some of the posters who know alot about the science to see how they compare. I think its good to know your competition.
In my opinion there are to many who either accept of reject without asking questions that may help to understand the market

[skid]

Trolls aren't after answers its all about self amusement for them and trying to discourage as many current holders as possible by controlling the thread ( Notice how the word controlling also contains a Troll)

I beg to differ--How else can you get answers than by asking question--Perhaps thinking rightly or wrongly about things that no one has considered much up to now.
Maybe even venturing to try and think of possible solutions.
But I havent seen much evidence of anyone else trying to do the same or considering what has been brought up.

Not sure if talk of trolls is really going to achieve much.

If your after real answers you have got to start somewhere

[skid]

Yes Snaps, I agree PEB could have some explaining to do there, although as one who has run or helped to run businesses in a fast-moving sector (not this one) I'm very aware that things outside one's control often happen unexpectedly. It was hard enough keeping board members in the loop, let alone shareholders. And I was a member of the Institute of Directors, with profound respect for the fiduciary duty owed to shareholders I was serving, who included a venture capital investor.

But listening to DD in his presentation last week I recalled what it was like, juggling numerous balls in the air as head of a not-large company and having to be able to modify strategy very fast - something NZ companies are reputedly good at. I thought DD did an excellent job addressing issues over a wide range. Okay, PEB have stuffed up on a couple of issues, but that happens. And we can always attack him for beginning every answer with "Yes that's a very good question". His PR advisers probably told him to do that, and does it matter?.

But from his presentation overall I was satisfied things are broadly on track (even though the track ahead is never clear) and I'll be taking up the capital raising offer.

Another thing not all shareholders may appreciate is the complexity of the cancer diagnostics and treatment business. As one who has recently had cancer experience and been using Google to keep up with the specialists treating me, I'm very aware that approvals of new treatments don't happen as fast as we'd like. But that's to be expected. The medical bureaucracy has a tough job keeping up, especially when approving the expenditure of public money.

The number of new treatments and diagnostic tools now becoming available globally is mind-blowing. And while there is room for many of them to be adopted to a limited extent, far fewer will stand out and become the standard treatments based on efficacy and price. Not based on how hard they are promoted by big Pharma. The specialists (and medical bureaucrats) know that big Pharma is less interested in curing patients than in keeping them under longterm expensive treatment. So I disagree with those who say PEB would de better by being taken captive by big Pharma.

It's a complex environment, and I think the CxBladder strategy is admirably constructed to achieve success.

Big Pharma is a very emotive word --There are some bad apples alright but there are also alot of lifesaving contributions they have made--It really depends on the company--Just at first glance Genomics seems ok ,and Im sure there are lots of others that probably contributed to your cure(hopefully)

In terms of a partnership,the economics makes sense.

[Apathy]

I was just after some stats from some of the posters who know a lot about the science to see how they compare. I think its good to know your competition.
In my opinion there are to many who either accept of reject without asking questions that may help to understand the market

Yep - we tend to be split between the gullible and cynical. With this type of product it is always going to be hard to do any form of DD on market so you are more reliant on the company than normal. Which I believe puts greater onus on them to be responsible.

As far as I can read - no date for cash positive, no date for profitability just the glib - on our way to $100m.

If they triple sales each year it will take at least 4 1/2 years to get to that figure - which I would have no problem with. Great achievement. Will it be profitable? If so how profitable? Needs to be making around $18m+ pre tax to justify current share price (on say a PE 15) and over those 4 years - will cash burn go up until profitable? Current burn would see them need another $40m in funding. That has to seriously dilute share value as its pretty hard to put a more positive spin on things than the current one.

Looks like SP has a lot further to fall in near term.

[Balance]

Glad the ramping trolls with their banal repetitive postings are not around much - sp tells the story of who's right and who's wrong to follow.

[winner69]

Believe the story ... exciting times ahead

[winner69]

where's Wolly......I can't see him anywhere in that picture

Near the top of the $100m column about 3 or 4 in from the right hand side

[Baa_Baa]

Believe the story ... exciting times ahead

Is that the costs curve? Post the revenue one and the profit one as well, we need balance.
;)

[Baa_Baa]

This doesn't need an explanation. You can see for yourself what the punters think of the SP and where it might go to. Or it could bounce at around $0.62. Who knows?

7381

[Dentie]

Glad the ramping trolls with their banal repetitive postings are not around much - sp tells the story of who's right and who's wrong to follow.

If that's what you believe Balance ... you just hang onto that. Meanwhile, I'll start rehearsing the much hackneyed mantra...."I told you so, I told you so, I told you so....".:confused:

[Tsuba]

Glad the ramping trolls with their banal repetitive postings are not around much - sp tells the story of who's right and who's wrong to follow.

I think the fact that so many on this thread put soooooo much time and energy into slagging off a company they have no intention of investing in speaks volumes on them as individuals.


Anyhow good luck to you and the satisfying life you have.

[Dentie]

I have no fear of my credibility given the money I have saved for those who read and listened to my views on Pike River, NZOG, Snakk etc.

Thanks anyway for your concern but you need not. :D

I was genuinely saddened to read this post Balance and has taken me a few days to think about replying to it. As I have stated more than once on this and other threads, it is not always about the money.

I am sincerely happy for your followers that you managed to warn them about your views on Pike River and how those views evidently saved them from losing money. It is fortunate they got their money out prior to the collapse. However, I wonder whether you also supplied your views on the company to those in the company who would have ultimately profited the most? Given the events, I suspect you didn't.

I posted this because I (& plenty of others) am so tired of your sanctimonious "historically based, know-it-all" comments against those investors who are simply posting their tireless research and opinions for the benefit of all of us to read. I thank them very much for doing so. If we get it wrong on the day, then so be it. That's what freedom of speech and freedom of association is all about and that is why it is ingrained so steeply in our Bill of Rights.

There is a quote that goes something like "There is nothing safer than a ship in port...but then, a ship was never designed to stay in port". Pretty apt I reckon.

I think I will call it a day on here. Happy investing everyone...

[Balance]

AND made others good money with sage advice on Heartland.

Thanks, Percy.

Yes, Heartland at 55c to 60c - that was heck of a golden opportunity to buy very cheap stock off Georgie Porgie as his corporate manoeuvrings backfired and landed him in the pigs' poo rather than his nose in the pigs' trough!

[skid]

I think the fact that so many on this thread put soooooo much time and energy into slagging off a company they have no intention of investing in speaks volumes on them as individuals.


Anyhow good luck to you and the satisfying life you have.



In my case thats not completely true Tsuba--Once we start getting signs that they are implementing a successful strategy of selling their product then I would seriously consider jumping on board--But Im sure you can see why many are holding off for now.
I think it would be unrealistic to think that once the capital raising has closed -that the SP will not drop to compensate(unless something comes along to help in the way of news)
Its just simple maths--If the shares have been diluted by 16% then all things being equal,it should fall(not necessarily by that percentage)

Ofcourse things could get difficult if the market is offering lots of shares at less than the .61 (hopefully for the companies sake that wont happen)

That does make a possibility of the 50s,but as long as the cap raising is successful,thats the important thing for the company.

They must be preparing for an all out assault on PR and salesmen or a takeover to be going for that amount of dosh(valued @ 200mil its like 1/6 of the value of the company)--(some value lower)

So its probably one of the more difficult phases in the life of PEB

But for those avid supporters ,this is a chance to put your money where your keyboard is:)---and in many ways that is what is fitting
For new investors it certainly should come with a disclaimer--(its become more speculative at this stage,even though the product is 'settled in'')

[skid]

I was genuinely saddened to read this post Balance and has taken me a few days to think about replying to it. As I have stated more than once on this and other threads, it is not always about the money.

I am sincerely happy for your followers that you managed to warn them about your views on Pike River and how those views evidently saved them from losing money. It is fortunate they got their money out prior to the collapse. However, I wonder whether you also supplied your views on the company to those in the company who would have ultimately profited the most? Given the events, I suspect you didn't.

I posted this because I (& plenty of others) am so tired of your sanctimonious "historically based, know-it-all" comments against those investors who are simply posting their tireless research and opinions for the benefit of all of us to read. I thank them very much for doing so. If we get it wrong on the day, then so be it. That's what freedom of speech and freedom of association is all about and that is why it is ingrained so steeply in our Bill of Rights.

There is a quote that goes something like "There is nothing safer than a ship in port...but then, a ship was never designed to stay in port". Pretty apt I reckon.

I think I will call it a day on here. Happy investing everyone...

Its true Dents -Its not only about the money--But that is how the economy ,for better or worse,does work--Its how a company is valued and how it achieves success. without it PEB will surely crash and burn as any company would.
In many ways ,its the root of tremendous injustices(like life saving meds for poor Africans)
If we were in a purely socialist world then why not adopt CX--Its the best around at this time.
But instead we live in a world far more complicated. A small percentage hoard most of the money at the expense of the rest.
The rest of the system is left with difficult decisions on what to budget for and against--(do we fund this product which means cutting others(people die)
This is especially true in the USA where capitalism rules--The wealth is not distributed fairly and many suffer as a result--but thats what we've got to work with in this case and somehow PEB has to make this work in that framework.
So for those who believe in the product(like me) and also believe they have what it takes to sell it(jurys out for me) or want to support regardless-then pile in to that cap raising--I hope you do--I want the story to continue and eventually reach success. But it does carry a very real element of risk so new investors should know that.

Meanwhile I try to keep thinking a bit out of the box--like is it the Urologists who do the cytology(cystoscopy)--are they set in their ways and are they reluctant to give up their specialty to come over to a test(even though its better?) I dont know the answer to that but its worth investigating----(In terms of targeting doctors instead who can easily order the test,with less skin in the game to protect-for the first screen(thats why Im miffed that traige was'nt first off the blocks.)

Since the cap raising is for holders only then I say go for it---if your buying up to be a holder to take part ,well...theres a bit more to consider..

[Minerbarejet]

For those of you on this thread who are reasonably new to the world of Pacific Edge and the accompanying and ongoing angst that it seems to have generated, please be aware that there is a great pool of investors out there that dont come anywhere near this thread. There are more and more previous posters leaving, (myself included), and will take up positions elsewhere to share ideas and experience. Also please be aware that there is a lot more going on in the background that has not even been faintly discussed here but undoubtedly will be revealed in due course. As always do your own research and make your decisions with a proper financial advisor if need be.
Always keep a salt cellar nearby to sprinkle over this tasteless thread.
Au revoir
Miner

[Joshuatree]

I for one are very grateful for your insightful posts balance.
Among others your timely comments on the CRP thread were appreciated.
I think you have much to offer especially to those who want to hear the negatives and risk about an investment.
Personally I find understanding and weighing up negatives and positives of an investment always gives you a clearer picture........also makes you a better investor.
Keep up the good work but remember not all like hearing negative comments (even if totally relevant) about their investments especially one's not performing well.:)
PS if people were wise enough they would have worked out long ago that you have much more in depth knowledge about how the markets work than a non professional;)

Yes thanks balance for your passion and your authenticity.
This has turned into such a high risk stock ,my head is ruling my heart and until some ducks fly in and do some synchronised swimming, my funds can work somewhere else with less risk and more gain.

[winner69]

This doesn't need an explanation. You can see for yourself what the punters think of the SP and where it might go to. Or it could bounce at around $0.62. Who knows?

7381

Baabaa, chart just shows how irrational the market can be

As Keynes said “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”

But then again MAC says price always reverts to true value, and the intrinsic long term value of PEB is increasing day by day as each exciting initiative comes to fruition

[Balance]

Yes thanks balance for your passion and your authenticity.
This has turned into such a high risk stock ,my head is ruling my heart and until some ducks fly in and do some synchronised swimming, my funds can work somewhere else with less risk and more gain.

Thanks, Joshuatree.

I do try my best to post my views, positive or negative, to provide perspective on a stock.

Blindly believing the statements, comments and PR of a company is the surest way of losing one's money as companies will always try to give a positive spin on anything they do.

Questioning a company, getting the directors/management to account for their positive and bullish statements (especially when they are raising money or directors/management are selling shares) against reality - this is what any shareholder must do. Heck, it is your money they are playing with!

PEB delivered well on its plan up to the launch of CxBladder and the establishment of its lab in the US. Many of us invested in the company based upon that track record.

Since then, it has consistently failed to deliver against its*stated objectives imo and failed to report and account to shareholders why they are behind - eg. last capital raising will take them to profitability.

We have however seen the company continue to propagate the line that the company is 'meeting expectations' and 'exciting' times and things are happening!

Well, sorry but that is simply unacceptable and not good enough.

What is extremely disturbing on threads like Pike River, NZOG, CRP, Snakk etc is the presence of those who try to shut down anyone else with a questioning or negative view, insinuating all kinds of dastardly deeds behind our postings. We are seeing the same attempts with PEB.

[Balance]

Baabaa, chart just shows how irrational the market can be

As Keynes said “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”

But then again MAC says price always reverts to true value, and the intrinsic long term value of PEB is increasing day by day as each exciting initiative comes to fruition

Care for this excitement then, W69?

"I am excited about developing another idea into a successful business and using the experience gained during my time..."

https://www.nzx.com/companies/MAD/announcements/265047

Points of order :

1. MAD is an idea turned into a successful business? Shows how different the management/founder/director of a company define success with the market, doesn't it?

2. Excited about developing another idea? That word 'excited' again! Hmmm - how about the last one and why should shareholders trust him with another idea when the last one has been a money losing exercise.

I bet DD was very excited about Aborgen too?

[Carpenterjoe]

Good to see Kaiser growing strong, update your spreadsheets,

http://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/blog/2015/05/kaiser-permanente-enrollment-profits-finances.html

[winner69]

Care for this excitement then, W69?

"I am excited about developing another idea into a successful business and using the experience gained during my time..."

https://www.nzx.com/companies/MAD/announcements/265047

Points of order :

1. MAD is an idea turned into a successful business? Shows how different the management/founder/director of a company define success with the market, doesn't it?

2. Excited about developing another idea? That word 'excited' again! Hmmm - how about the last one and why should shareholders trust him with another idea when the last one has been a money losing exercise.

I bet DD was very excited about Aborgen too?

Arborgen was 'successful commercialised' back in DD's day - he took it out of he labs and got people using / buying the product before he moved on PEB. That's success for a scientist, profit not part of the equation. I believe Arborgen still to make a buck and another influx of cash on the cards.

[winner69]

Arborgen was 'successful commercialised' back in DD's day - he took it out of he labs and got people using / buying the product before he moved on PEB. That's success for a scientist, profit not part of the equation. I believe Arborgen still to make a buck and another influx of cash on the cards.

Did smle when Iread that yesterday.

Maybe DD could say this if he leaves - “I would like to thank all the PEB team that I have worked with and wish the company all the best for the future

[Apathy]

I posted this because I (& plenty of others) am so tired of your sanctimonious "historically based, know-it-all" comments against those investors who are simply posting their tireless research and opinions for the benefit of all of us to read. I thank them very much for doing so. If we get it wrong on the day, then so be it. That's what freedom of speech and freedom of association is all about and that is why it is ingrained so steeply in our Bill of Rights.


What a pathetic post coming from someone who's sole contribution to any thread is parroting the said companies press releases. Dismissing anyone who disagrees or dares to challenge the PR or the cheerleaders who repeat it is attacked at a personal level.

There is no hindsight here - or at your other favorite - SEA. Perhaps in future you should start posts with the disclaimer "it isn't always about the money" so as readers have some perspective.

[skid]

Good to see Kaiser growing strong, update your spreadsheets,

http://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/blog/2015/05/kaiser-permanente-enrollment-profits-finances.html

Update your spreadsheets?? Could you give us a few pointers CJ?

[skid]

For those of you on this thread who are reasonably new to the world of Pacific Edge and the accompanying and ongoing angst that it seems to have generated, please be aware that there is a great pool of investors out there that dont come anywhere near this thread. There are more and more previous posters leaving, (myself included), and will take up positions elsewhere to share ideas and experience. Also please be aware that there is a lot more going on in the background that has not even been faintly discussed here but undoubtedly will be revealed in due course. As always do your own research and make your decisions with a proper financial advisor if need be.
Always keep a salt cellar nearby to sprinkle over this tasteless thread.
Au revoir
Miner

Guess you cant reply ,but my question would be where can all these new investors go to get warm the fuzzies you mention----and it would have been nice to have gotten some elaboration on all those choice things going on in the background. (Are you recruiting?)
And finally ...is this comment actually worth its salt?:)

Take care and we may just see you back...or see you on the CDY thread..until then ...happy trails ..(or should I say happy trials)

[winner69]

Guess you cant reply ,but my question would be where can all these new investors go to get warm the fuzzies you mention----and it would have been nice to have gotten some elaboration on all those choice things going on in the background. (Are you recruiting?)
And finally ...is this comment actually worth its salt?:)

Take care and we may just see you back...or see you on the CDY thread..until then ...happy trails ..(or should I say happy trials)

Private PM Group, by invitation only

[skid]

Private PM Group, by invitation only

Well that kind of cuts out all those new investors...(and of course me:):)----(couldnt find a little yellow man crying)

[winner69]

Well that kind of cuts out all those new investors...(and of course me:):)----(couldnt find a little yellow man crying)

MAC referred to it a few weeks ago.

[Carpenterjoe]

Update your spreadsheets?? Could you give us a few pointers CJ?

Hey Skid,

Pretty simple stuff, list and record any Lugs I find possibly adopting cx bladder. I posted a link to one such lug the other day with over 50000 patients.

Kp being the largest, when their market increases, the possibilities for peb also improves. Kp has roughly 3% of the American market and a history for screening.

[skid]

Hey Skid,

Pretty simple stuff, list and record any Lugs I find possibly adopting cx bladder. I posted a link to one such lug the other day with over 50000 patients.

Kp being the largest, when their market increases, the possibilities for peb also improves. Kp has roughly 3% of the American market and a history for screening.

Ok ,I get it.---I guess the big disappointment is the long drawn out process of the trial.--but when it is finally over and they have struck up some sort of deal(which seems likely but you never know)--THEN the fact that they(KP)have grown even bigger is a plus.
Of course we dont know for sure if PEB is going to be the only one on board but time will tell(one would think so if they are doing the trial--but if they are getting paid ,then why not.

Guess the million dollar question is what are they(PEB)going to be up to in the meantime while waiting for test results from KP,next year---Personally i dont see what the big deal is --they've already shown to be better in the other trial---So who is KP using in the meantime? Is it CX?--Is it for free in the form of the trial? Or will they be able to collect in the end.

There is certainly no shortage of possibilities--They have them coming out their ying yang. Its a real result they need .
If they get something they can get their teeth into,then just they fact that the possibilities exist will help alot.

[skid]

I wonder if they have a name for their group.....I could think of a few.
I believe to join the group you must only talk in a positive manner about PEB's history and future for at least 2 years on the PEB thread.
Apparently I am not eligible yet:p

Gosh!---Sounds like North Korea

[blobbles]

Well this is a sight to see.

People must be so convinced that everything they say is right, they can't handle dissenting opinions. This reeks of people with far too much ego.

They then go and create their own private cliques so they can reassure each other that all is well in the world?

Seems to me some here need a reality check... it sounds like leaving a fairly valuable forum is denying yourself exactly the medicine you need.

PEB have done all right to date, but they have now stated one thing and done another (said no more CR's, we have enough money to see us through to profitability, then not apologised for the incorrect guidance and just started a CR). That doesn't mean its all over, but it does (and rightly should) give us all a little to worry about. Up until a week or so ago I would have said everything seems "on track" but with the cash burn increasing and the guidance a little wonky, I am a little more worried. The SP drop confirms that so is the rest of the market.

If you are a bull, you should acknowledge that it is a hiccup, that it indicates not everything is going to track. PEB going into the US is and always has been a high risk and difficult to measure path which will be full of potholes. They just hit one. Hopefully it won't happen again, you remain positive.

If you are a bear, you should acknowledge that it is a hiccup, that it indicates not everything is going to track. PEB going into the US is and always has been a high risk and difficult to measure path which will be full of potholes. They just hit one. Hopefully it won't happen again, you remain negative.

PEB's fortunes are rising and falling month in, month out. There is no way to predict what will happen, whether success is sure or impossible. The "ha haaa, I told you so!"'s are far too premature one way or the other.

[Joshuatree]

No i can't either.Just went to try now.

[trader_jackson]

Wow this thread has been very active, can anyone summarize what has happened over the past few days? Anything important? I also get the feeling PEB could be announcing something relatively big in the next month...

[Balance]

Wow this thread has been very active, can anyone summarize what has happened over the past few days? Anything important? I also get the feeling PEB could be announcing something relatively big in the next month...

Haha - PEB has cultivated that 'exciting feel of excitement that something big is going to happen anytime soon'.

The big thing has happened and it's PEB wanting more of your money to give you more exciting products and exciting new markets with the excitable team.

[skid]

Well this is a sight to see.

People must be so convinced that everything they say is right, they can't handle dissenting opinions. This reeks of people with far too much ego.

They then go and create their own private cliques so they can reassure each other that all is well in the world?

Seems to me some here need a reality check... it sounds like leaving a fairly valuable forum is denying yourself exactly the medicine you need.

PEB have done all right to date, but they have now stated one thing and done another (said no more CR's, we have enough money to see us through to profitability, then not apologised for the incorrect guidance and just started a CR). That doesn't mean its all over, but it does (and rightly should) give us all a little to worry about. Up until a week or so ago I would have said everything seems "on track" but with the cash burn increasing and the guidance a little wonky, I am a little more worried. The SP drop confirms that so is the rest of the market.

If you are a bull, you should acknowledge that it is a hiccup, that it indicates not everything is going to track. PEB going into the US is and always has been a high risk and difficult to measure path which will be full of potholes. They just hit one. Hopefully it won't happen again, you remain positive.

If you are a bear, you should acknowledge that it is a hiccup, that it indicates not everything is going to track. PEB going into the US is and always has been a high risk and difficult to measure path which will be full of potholes. They just hit one. Hopefully it won't happen again, you remain negative.

PEB's fortunes are rising and falling month in, month out. There is no way to predict what will happen, whether success is sure or impossible. The "ha haaa, I told you so!"'s are far too premature one way or the other.

I think on the bear side (I dont really think in terms of complete bear) its more remain Cautious--(but cautious just got a little bit scarier)

As far as I know ''the PM club'' could be just as much rumor as plenty of other things that have come up on this thread.

Ok ,maybe a few people are emailing each other--thats fine.--when you have this much skin in the game Im sure its hard not to be frustrated with whats going on.
Taking things with a grain of salt is easier said than done at times (especially if it is getting rubbed into the wound)
When frustration turns to anger ,its got to go somewhere--so fair enough.
We all have different investing strategy's and tolerance to risk.

Of course no one knows that this big CR (and in my opinion,it is huge)is not going towards a takeover,but it would seem that sticking their necks out at this stage would leave them vulnerable--but you never know.

More sign ups and possibilities cant be bad but we have had plenty of them now and its time for some real action (sales) to bear fruit for all that.
It would have been good if management had given a bit more to go on with the KP trials delays (doesnt seem probable that it would be PEBs fault unless they were funding and were running into snags)--seems more likely its just the ''system'' over there which can be easy to misjudge--(that may mean slower than usual or a ''not coming on board in terms of interest and buying''(or maybe KP is just so big ,with so many pots on the fire -that hic ups are common place) there may even be less than average people presenting with symptoms at this stage in time to take part .

So barring a big announcement (as T J is predicting)it looks like we have been put on ''hold'' once again,but this time with an extra dose of doubt.

So far its looks to have stabilized at the 65-66---If it doesnt drift down ,then that keeps the CR on safer ground.--If I were them,my big worry would be that it fell to a point that it didnt become economic to take up the offer.

[Balance]

So barring a big announcement (as T J is predicting)it looks like we have been put on ''hold'' once again,but this time with an extra dose of doubt.

So far its looks to have stabilized at the 65-66---If it doesnt drift down ,then that keeps the CR on safer ground.--If I were them,my big worry would be that it fell to a point that it didnt become economic to take up the offer.

Sold down now to 65c and sellers ready to sell down further before ex-rights on Friday? Underwriters and sub-underwriters backfooting support to 63c - just needs one player deciding to sell out and it's goodnight, nurse, to the underwriters who will only expense so much to make sure they do not end up with shares!

[winner69]

?......- just needs one player deciding to sell out and it's goodnight, nurse.

That could be exciting eh Balance ......we do live in exciting times don't we

[Balance]

That could be exciting eh Balance ......we do live in exciting times don't we

Underwriter gets 3% and sub-underwriters get 2.5% normally?

So they can sell down to 59.5c and still break even.

Not so for the non-underwriters.

So they can sell shares now at 63c and pick up the shares cheaper to replace, if they want to.

Disclaimer : assuming terms of underwrite as written.

[Balance]

Gloves off - looks like sellers of volume now coming out to play at 65c.

Underwriters must be desperate to keep sp at at least 65c to encourage shareholders to take up issue.

Great opportunity for those who want out to give shares to them at 65c?

[BlackPeter]

Gloves off - looks like sellers of volume now coming out to play at 65c.

Underwriters must be desperate to keep sp at at least 65c to encourage shareholders to take up issue.

Great opportunity for those who want out to give shares to them at 65c?

Hi Balance, you wouldn't down ramp - wouldn't you?

Funny thing is - I hardly see any support (highest bid 63 cents as we speak) - i.e. your supporting underwriters are either not yet up ... or not in existence. Maybe it is just that holders feel 65 cents is a fair price, but you never know ...

[Balance]

Hi Balance, you wouldn't down ramp - wouldn't you?

Funny thing is - I hardly see any support (highest bid 63 cents as we speak) - i.e. your supporting underwriters are either not yet up ... or not in existence. Maybe it is just that holders feel 65 cents is a fair price, but you never know ...

Market observation, BP, that's all.

Underwriters typically sub-underwrite to existing big shareholders who are going to be up for the rights issue anyway - that way the underwriters reduce their risk and the subunderwriters take some fees.

Has happened however where sub-underwriters decide not to take up their 'entitlement' when the sp looks like it could go down further so they sell first - effectively locking in a margin on the shares they are hit with post issue.

[couta1]

Gloves off - looks like sellers of volume now coming out to play at 65c.

Underwriters must be desperate to keep sp at at least 65c to encourage shareholders to take up issue.

Great opportunity for those who want out to give shares to them at 65c?
Seems my other response to this post was deleted by someone I ask the question what is the purpose and motivation of the poster here when you weigh it up with all his other previous posts? To me it seems an obvious downramp and encouragement for holders to sell out. Its a great shame that most of the well researched posters have now vacated this thread leaving it to be dominated by non holders,downrampers,cynics and the like. I wonder what the purpose of this thread now is as surely dedicated holders of the stock should make up a good portion of those posting on it.

[Balance]

Balance, you (among others) have ruined this thread. please stop.

I have PMs from others thanking me for providing an alternative perspective to the ramping trolls and their banal 'PEB can do no wrong' postings.

Notice how Edison (PEB's house puppy research) has not bothered to update its report for the actual results and the capital raising? I would take that up with PEB in the first instance if I were you.

[mdc]

Agree Newguy, Balance your constant "I told you so" has wrecked this thread. Unless you have something new to add please go somewhere else.

[Balance]

Seems my other response to this post was deleted by someone I ask the question what is the purpose and motivation of the poster here when you weigh it up with all his other previous posts? To me it seems an obvious downramp and encouragement for holders to sell out. Its a great shame that most of the well researched posters have now vacated this thread leaving it to be dominated by non holders,downrampers,cynics and the like. I wonder what the purpose of this thread now is as surely dedicated holders of the stock should make up a good portion of those posting on it.

Points of order, Couta1, for the benefit of those who are new to the thread and are trying to get a handle on what has been going on :

1. Refer to post #13776. Investing is not only about fundamentals, but market dynamics. PEB sp in the next month will be driven principally by the rights issue so it is critical to know what is going on.

2. The holder posters could not have been more wrong when it comes to research and analysis of PEB in recent years - regurgitating PEB's hype and statements as research, just like Edison. And the sp and this capital raising tell the story.

3. FYI, a downramp happens when someone writes unsubstantiated comments and postings in an effort to drive a sp lower, to buy in. If you genuinely believe that to be true, what a great buying opportunity then! Trouble is, accusations of downramp have been made since PEB was above $1.00. As the sp dropped and more and more participants in the market realized PEB was not delivering on its own assertions and hype, the accusations of downramp become more strident and shrill.

Hope that is sueful for those who like some perspective on what has been happening with PEB.

[Apathy]

Balance, you (among others) have ruined this thread. please stop.

Seriously?? I thought the thread was ruined by the inane parroting of press releases from the cheerleaders. As soon as there was any sign of an alternate opinion or some challenging points made the kiddies picked up their toys and went home.

I want to come here and find people challenging the decisions/assumptions I make as they make my ultimate decision more robust.

It seems that no one has an issue with posting anything bullish but dare to differ or make a valid point and it gets very personal. ................. facts are still.........

As far as I can read - no date for cash positive, no date for profitability just the glib - on our way to $100m.

If they triple sales each year it will take at least 4 1/2 years to get to that figure - which I would have no problem with. Great achievement. Will it be profitable? If so how profitable? Needs to be making around $18m+ pre tax to justify current share price (on say a PE 15) and over those 4 years - will cash burn go up until profitable? Current burn would see them need another $40m in funding. That has to seriously dilute share value as its pretty hard to put a more positive spin on things than the current one.

Looks like SP has a lot further to fall in near term.

[skid]

guys--In the end you choose what you take on board--Just dont worry about the rest.

The SP seems to have found a range so its just steady as she goes--And dont forget this (CR)is an opportunity for both of you to to top up if your keen(or even buy more than you could from the CR if the SP dips below .61--there are always 2 sides to every coin.

Or you can go into the wilderness with Mac and Miner until things improve-your choice

I can relate though as there are times when I could not resist responding to some posts that seemed to make claims that didnt seem objective--(from the opposite side )
Guess we just need some middle ground for a while.

there have been some credible points made though that should be considered--you can always go back and dig up (one of) Macs many PEBs goals charts and see how the new developments tie in to the long range plan.

Its looking like there are some who are wondering whether to buy for the first time-(by the posts) so although some will never sell and some probably wouldnt consider buying at this stage--alot of posts are relevant.

Couts--This is a great chance to see if your ''averaging down'' theory will work for a second time.

Last year I bought at exactly the same SP as now (and it worked out well that time) Im not considering it now after weighing up the probabilities--Its hard to be optimistic about and increase in the SP with the .61 CR coming up--but thats just me.

You guys miught have good reasons to jump on board now--If you want to express the reasons why --go for it

Its about PEB rather than the posters isnt it?

[mdc]

2. The holder posters could not have been more wrong when it comes to research and analysis of PEB in recent years - regurgitating PEB's hype and statements as research, just like Edison. And the sp and this capital raising tell the story.

Please give it up with this negative hype and be reasonable with your statements. Not everything has been wrong? The number of tests and revenue from sales is increasing rapidly (but obviously not enough for some) & they have independent evidence of a 'best of breed' test.

Yes Market penetration in the US is proving difficult but this is not unexpected and hence the need for more $$, yes this does depress the SP but does it mean the company is doomed to failure and all those holding should be lined up, laughed at then shot??

How about moving on and having a reasoned analysis of the competition because with the delay in market penetration this is the biggest risk I see on the horizon.

www.siennadiagnostics.com.au
- Has a reagent in the market that can be used by cytology labs to help ID bladder cancer cells

www.biotimeinc.com/oncocyte-corp
- Seem to be developing a very similar test to the current PEB but still in early dev..

[mdc]

For those interested in the science and the potential of the cancer testing market have a look at the latest video on the www.oncocyte.com were they discuss why they have entered this market.

[skid]

Of course everything has not gone wrong.

The trial showing that CX is the best is an obvious positive (great product)

The incresae in sales % is a bit misleading though for 2 reasons --The numbers are small(it would obviusly make a bigger difference if it was x% of a large number.

And the biggie--It has taken a major cost to produce the increase in sales(many time more than the sales revenue)

I posted a company that could pose a serious competition as well but got not much response--probably more because the most knowledgeable were ''on vacation'' so Im not sure of how much of a real threat they are.

Id have to look back but I remember they were doing a large trial (like PEB)with results coming out around the same time as predicted KP results--but there may be more other hurdles for them --not sure.
They were a much bigger outfit which seems the most worry for me (marketing)in term of competition.

The best news that I could fanthom for PEB is an announcement that they have ''joined forces'' with someone who has that edge of market profile .
So what if they lose a bit of commison on 10 times the sales--thats my take at least.

[Balance]

Of course everything has not gone wrong.

The trial showing that CX is the best is an obvious positive (great product)

The incresae in sales % is a bit misleading though for 2 reasons --The numbers are small(it would obviusly make a bigger difference if it was x% of a large number.

And the biggie--It has taken a major cost to produce the increase in sales(many time more than the sales revenue)

I posted a company that could pose a serious competition as well but got not much response--probably more because the most knowledgeable were ''on vacation'' so Im not sure of how much of a real threat they are.

Id have to look back but I remember they were doing a large trial (like PEB)with results coming out around the same time as predicted KP results--but there may be more other hurdles for them --not sure.
They were a much bigger outfit which seems the most worry for me (marketing)

The best news that I could fanthom for PEB is an announcement that they have ''joined forces'' with someone who has that edge of market profile .
So what if they lose a bit of commison on 10 times the sales--thats my take at least.

Case in point is that Sienna has been covered a few times by posters - as far back as February this year. Repeating previous postings - 'Different strategy altogether to PEB - they are using a JV structure to launch into the US, avoiding the huge setup lab, admin and sales costs by tapping into the distribution (and credibility) of their JV partner. Read their FDA filing. Cost per test to be around US$150.

[skid]

For those interested in the science and the potential of the cancer testing market have a look at the latest video on the www.oncocyte.com were they discuss why they have entered this market.


Looked back and it was the same that i posted

[mdc]

Is the $150USD test cost just the price of the re-agent from Sienna? Only guessing but as this is a tool for cytology labs to use the total cost of a cytology test on a urine sample to the insurer or client would be much higher?

Apologies skid if you had already posted that vid, new to the thread and have a bit of catching up to do.

[skid]

No reason for an apology--it was just a link i posted ,but I dont think it had the video.

Good point on cost as some tests are sold as a test ,but must be processed in an independent lab(I believe Urovyson does this)so there is obviously the extra lab cost.

[Balance]

Is the $150USD test cost just the price of the re-agent from Sienna? Only guessing but as this is a tool for cytology labs to use the total cost of a cytology test on a urine sample to the insurer or client would be much higher?

Apologies skid if you had already posted that vid, new to the thread and have a bit of catching up to do.

US$150 for the whole test.

The FDA will frown very harshly for any misleading statement from any applicant for registration.

[Baa_Baa]

Do any of the products have endorsements from practicing NZ oncologists or urologists that also use the products?

[mdc]

Any evidence of this price other than the Sienna press release, considering your a stickler for doing independent research?

[Balance]

Any evidence of this price other than the Sienna press release, considering your a stickler for doing independent research?

Read post #13788. FDA filing - good enough independent research?

[Tsuba]

Balance me old china plate. mdc has had the curtacy of posting direct links to companies he is talking about. How come you never post direct links to the wealth of knowledge you base your accusations on. Pointing mdc to post#13788 is a bit vague to me. How about a direct web link to the FDA filing you refer to.

[mdc]

So your citing your own post that says because I say so? Sorry balance but all I can find is Sienna's own press release saying that the cost will be not more than $150USD without any specifics.

Does it include interpretation fees from that lab running the test? is a practitioner going to request a cytology workup and ask, "just run the Sierra test please" no other checks required? I doubt it, they will check pH, traces of blood, etc.

cytology is not just a single stain and yes or no answer. It requires interpretation and usually additional tests to fill in the picture. Which costs $$

[Tsuba]

So your citing your own post that says because I say so? Sorry balance but all I can find is Sienna's own press release saying that the cost will be not more than $150USD without any specifics.

Does it include interpretation fees from that lab running the test? is a practitioner going to request a cytology workup and ask, "just run the Sierra test please" no other checks required? I doubt it, they will check pH, traces of blood, etc.

cytology is not just a single stain and yes or no answer. It requires interpretation and usually additional tests to fill in the picture. Which costs $$

Keep up the good work mdc. You might put him back into hibernation. ;)

[mdc]

Thanks Tsuba but that is not the aim of this forum or me. All I want to see is some constructive discussion but if people are going to make statements then they need to back them up and be open to contradicting views, you cannot just say look at my last post were I said 'such and such' is the case and because I have now said it twice its fact.

Personally I don't see Sienna as a threat yet. However I cannot find any evidence of there test Specificity/Sens and PPV? What I may need to look for is how a cytology test at lab is improved with the addition!! of this test. Does cytology then prove to be as good or better than CXbladder Detect??

Currently trawling through the BioMedCentral test comparison that was recently published to see if it used any sienna tests (don't think it did?) http://www.biomedcentral.com/1471-2288/15/45

[mdc]

On a side note I would be very surprised (in the land of the free) if an FDA filing and approval requires a "fixed price to customer" as part of there submission?? I would expect just test validity and safety, but hey, I have never been involved in one.

[Tsuba]

Thanks Tsuba but that is not the aim of this forum or me. All I want to see is some constructive discussion but if people are going to make statements then they need to back them up and be open to contradicting views, you cannot just say look at my last post were I said 'such and such' is the case and because I have now said it twice its fact.




Well said.

[Balance]

So your citing your own post that says because I say so? Sorry balance but all I can find is Sienna's own press release saying that the cost will be not more than $150USD without any specifics.

Does it include interpretation fees from that lab running the test? is a practitioner going to request a cytology workup and ask, "just run the Sierra test please" no other checks required? I doubt it, they will check pH, traces of blood, etc.

cytology is not just a single stain and yes or no answer. It requires interpretation and usually additional tests to fill in the picture. Which costs $$

http://www.lifescientist.com.au/content/health-medical/article/sienna-reagent-and-cancer-biomarker-registered-with-fda-34928942

LOL - Cost-wise, whatever applies to Sienna applies equally to PEB. Difference is PEB was stating US$300 to US$500 a test vs Sienna's US$150 per test.

Sienna uses a low cost JV business model, PEB uses a high cost vertical integrated model.

[Balance]

Thanks Tsuba but that is not the aim of this forum or me. All I want to see is some constructive discussion but if people are going to make statements then they need to back them up and be open to contradicting views, you cannot just say look at my last post were I said 'such and such' is the case and because I have now said it twice its fact.

Personally I don't see Sienna as a threat yet. However I cannot find any evidence of there test Specificity/Sens and PPV? What I may need to look for is how a cytology test at lab is improved with the addition!! of this test. Does cytology then prove to be as good or better than CXbladder Detect??

Currently trawling through the BioMedCentral test comparison that was recently published to see if it used any sienna tests (don't think it did?) http://www.biomedcentral.com/1471-2288/15/45

And the grand sum of your contributions so far? 3 posts until now - all positive and 100% taking onboard whatever PEB propagates to the market.

Yawn.

[Balance]

Meanwhile, sp moved down to a low of 62 cents today and close another cent down at 64c - 2 days before going ex-rights.

What is fascinating was an attempt to close the market at 65c but when the 'bidder' at 65c saw sellers coming out at 64 cents, the bidder fled.

Clear evidence of underwriter(s) trying to hold the sp up.

[blackcap]

I think the market will decide this one (as it always does in the long run) but if I was the underwriter I would be pooing big square ones at the moment.
There is a steady decline to the 61 cent mark and it will be interesting to see what the underwriter does with their share once they pick up x amount as holders let their rights expire. Its fascinating watching the gyrations of investor/trader on this one.

[mdc]

You have not read the Sienna press release May 2014 have you Balance. It is word for word with your cited link. Nice work on the research for someone with 5000+ posts. Its taken me only 9 to work out what you are.........

http://www.siennadiagnostics.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Sienna-FDA-reg-complete-29-05-14-FINAL.pdf

Analysing PEB competition positive?? Me thinks you don't like being called out on your statements my friend and just using the bully boy, I've got more post than you so I'm right rubbish.

And No. PEB does not sent there samples off to cyto lab for testing. So the same costs don't apply. Although I agree cyto would likely be cheaper than CxBladder, but is it better?

thanks for your input and keep up the good work.

[Balance]

I think the market will decide this one (as it always does in the long run) but if I was the underwriter I would be pooing big square ones at the moment.
There is a steady decline to the 61 cent mark and it will be interesting to see what the underwriter does with their share once they pick up x amount as holders let their rights expire. Its fascinating watching the gyrations of investor/trader on this one.

If underwriter is left with stock, it usually means a depressed sp for a while as the underwriter attempts to get rid of the stock.

Underwriters are not natural owners of stock they are left with. I remember underwriters dumping Feltex stock after the IPO.

The clock is ticking and there is still 2 days to bail out for those who want to hedge their bets.

[mdc]

Thats not down ramping is it Balance?

[Balance]

Thats not down ramping is it Balance?

Take it up with DD and PEB - they have been down ramping the sp with their inability to live up to the hype they themselves spun.

Remember last CR will take them to profitability? And now non-commital on when they will be profitable with the second (bigger) CR?

And remember the hype around Spain 4 years ago to be revealed now as a non-event?

And $150,000 of sales in NZ and Australia after 5 years of launching CxBladder and now PEB is blaming the health boards (great way to make friends in the health industry).

And **

** Too long a list to compile.

Starting to look like Pike River with its litany of hype, delays, costs overrun, broken promises and mis-statements.

[Leftfield]

IMHO life is much more pleasant and more balanced if a certain non balanced commentator on this thread is placed on your ignore list.

DYOR.

[Baa_Baa]

Meanwhile, sorry to quote myself, but I'd like an answer if anyone knows.


Do any of the products have endorsements from practicing NZ oncologists or urologists that also use the products?

[Xerof]

Meanwhile, sorry to quote myself, but I'd like an answer if anyone knows.

I'm not one for doing things to death and so not quite what you are after BaaBaa, but if one was to google (or bing et al) the names involved in the recent exciting peer review of cx triage, you will discover some of those participants happen to run major hospital departments in Singapore and Taiwan(obviously not the one that balance's contact works for though). So yes, resoundingly endorsed from that neck of the woods (thanks miner) and probably why DD is excited about the opportunity. They also state they want to introduce it into their clinical pathways.

Exciting. (I did note the CEO of Sienna often uses that term to describe his product too - must be contagious)

Pity mdc has been banned already - he/she was just warming up with some searching challenges to posted "facts".......oh well, I see Balance copped yet another ban as well, so it's peace and quiet without the morbidly fascinating commentary on buyers running for the hills because sellers frightened the living daylights out of them at the auction.... at least for a few days.

Looks like underwriters (FNZC no less - the best research house in the country) and sub-underwriters are the next group to be ridiculed and scorned, after silly shareholders, local funds who are increasing their stakes, company executives and local broking houses and analysts.

Keen to see you back though balance - it is so quiet without you here to balance things out.

[NT001]

Sienna uses a low cost JV business model, PEB uses a high cost vertical integrated model.

Has anyone seen any assessments of the efficacy of Sienna's product? I haven't. All I've seen is claims that it has "potential" to assist cytology. The company has just recently signed its first deal with a US partner, but there's no detail about how the product works and whether it has been clinically tested against other methods, etc.

I also note that Sienna's CEO of the past 10 years has just been replaced. She has been quoted as saying the past decade included stuffups and failures that they would have had problems keeping quiet about if they were a public listed company. Apparently Sienna is mulling whether to list and raise $10m (gosh!) through an IPO.

Sienna's product utilises a biomarker that is common to many cancers, rather than one specific to bladder cancer. And unlike PEB, it hasn't developed its diagnostic product in-house, but bought the idea from offshore. I would see that as somewhat of a disadvantage compared with PEB, which has huge in-house expertise. I could be wrong, but it doesn't sound to me like being in quite the same league as PEB's suite of products.

[Carpenterjoe]

Take it up with DD and PEB - they have been down ramping the sp with their inability to live up to the hype they themselves spun.

Remember last CR will take them to profitability? And now non-commital on when they will be profitable with the second (bigger) CR?

And remember the hype around Spain 4 years ago to be revealed now as a non-event?

And $150,000 of sales in NZ and Australia after 5 years of launching CxBladder and now PEB is blaming the health boards (great way to make friends in the health industry).

And **

** Too long a list to compile.

Starting to look like Pike River with its litany of hype, delays, costs overrun, broken promises and mis-statements.

Was about to spend real time replying to your dribble, bit decided against it.
A lot of people disagree with your one sided thoughts, as running any business you need to adapt, make mistakes, learn, have issues, solve problems, make profits. I see PEB adapting and learning, investors have been aware of their ambitions and skill level from day dot, I suppose your business has never made a mistake that cost thousands, it must be the most successful and interesting business in NZ. Or are you simply an investor?


Sweet dreams Balance my boy,

[ziggy415]

IMHO life is much more pleasant and more balanced if a certain non balanced commentator on this thread is placed on your ignore list.

DYOR.
looks like Mr mod has saved you the problem and put him on the banned list.....funny but i quite like some of his posts...gets bit boring other wise

[Joshuatree]

Yeah boring and unbalanced:)

ignore; and remain ignorant of what you don't want to hear.

[barney]

Was about to spend real time replying to your dribble, bit decided against it.
A lot of people disagree with your one sided thoughts, as running any business you need to adapt, make mistakes, learn, have issues, solve problems, make profits. I see PEB adapting and learning, investors have been aware of their ambitions and skill level from day dot, I suppose your business has never made a mistake that cost thousands, it must be the most successful and interesting business in NZ. Or are you simply an investor?


Sweet dreams Balance my boy,

I think your quite right CJ. Yes PEB have not always hit the mark and at times been a bit too optimistic. But when you think of where they have come from it's been a pretty good effort so far. Time lines in the science and medical fields are notoriously drawn out and getting products to market is always challenging, even for the big companies.

If I were to go back and look at past capital raisings, I'm sure I would find that most new shares were issued at values not much less than the on market value at the time.They have all been successful so far.

[skid]

Im actually surprised everyone is spending so much time and energy on Sienna--


http://www.fiercediagnostics.com/press-releases/positive-clinical-results-oncocytes-panc-dx-diagnostic-test-demonstrate-hig

This one has been mentioned before and has all the specs that can be compared--seems pretty similar but Im not claiming to be an expert on this.

I dont think theres anything out there to beat PEB-(but if this one is just as good and is a bigger co. then thats a concern)-Its more what PEB do with their product, and how, that is the key IMO.

Is Kaiser(with its trials) the key? If so the fact that they are taking their sweet time is one of those ''out of our control'' things that is a real shame.

If they had completed when it was first predicted (and CMS coverage came as a result)PEB could have potentially been off and running.

[skid]

I think your quite right CJ. Yes PEB have not always hit the mark and at times been a bit too optimistic. But when you think of where they have come from it's been a pretty good effort so far. Time lines in the science and medical fields are notoriously drawn out and getting products to market is always challenging, even for the big companies.

If I were to go back and look at past capital raisings, I'm sure I would find that most new shares were issued at values not much less than the on market value at the time.They have all been successful so far.

There has to be a certain ''reward to shareholders aspect'' and in my experience it works far better when the share is on the rise.

When I held NAN it was enough cheaper that most wanted in and the SP was on the rise as well--That one was definitely oversubscribed---I guess we will have to wait and see on this one.

[Iolite]

Im actually surprised everyone is spending so much time and energy on Sienna--


http://www.fiercediagnostics.com/press-releases/positive-clinical-results-oncocytes-panc-dx-diagnostic-test-demonstrate-hig



My thoughts also Skid!

The Sienna product is much less of a direct competitor than the Oncocyte product.

Oncocyte's product uses the same PCR based biomarker technology as CxBladder, although presumably they are using a different combination of biomarkers. It appears that they are initially targeting use in indeterminate cytology during recurrence surveillance by Pathologists, ie, cells examined from urine samples that are not able to be identified as cancerous or non-cancerous during the monitoring testing that is performed on patients who have already had bladder cancer treated. This actually makes them a direct competitor with the Sienna product.

Initially the Oncocyte product noted above will not be a direct competitor to CxBladder, but according to slides 23 and 24 of this Oncocyte presentation (http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9NTU1NzU4fENoaWxkSUQ 9MjUyNzg0fFR5cGU9MQ==&t=1) (Sept 2014), they plan to later introduce a product that deals with routine monitoring, ie, a product that could compete directly with CxBladder Monitor (not yet released), and finally a product that would deal with the initial diagnosis of bladder cancer, ie, a product that could compete directly with CxBladder Detect.

I would estimate (though I am no expert) that they are at least a year away from having their first product in use by Pathologists and probably 2-3 years away from having their later products (the ones that would compete with CxBladder Monitor and Detect) ready for sales. They do not appear to be as far advanced in their product pipeline as PEB, so I am still comfortable backing PEB as a small shareholder.

Disclaimer: Do your own research. I am not a financial advisor and the above information represents my personal opinions on the research that I have undertaken. I am a holder of a small parcel of PEB shares and currently bullish on PEB's future prospects.

[Iolite]

And remember the hype around Spain 4 years ago to be revealed now as a non-event?



The question of Spain was raised in the commentary on the full year results (MP3 recording of the conference call) (http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/assets/annual-reports/Annual-2015/2652939.mp3) at around the 16 minute mark (16:00).

Apparently a "key opinion leader" in Spain has identified the biggest market opportunity in Spain as being recurrence monitoring, ie, the market that PEB will be targeting with CxBladder Monitor.
Oryzon has therefore decided that the first PEB product that they want to launch in Spain will be CxBladder Monitor.
Since Monitor has not yet completed final testing and has not yet been made available for sales, I wouldn't expect this to happen in 2015.

I highly recommend that investors in or potential investors in PEB listen to the commentary on the full year results (MP3 recording of the conference call) (http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/assets/annual-reports/Annual-2015/2652939.mp3).
I only got around to doing this myself yesterday and I found the questions and answers very illuminating - David Darling is certainly excited about a lot of things! ;)
The potential of the Southeast Asian market was not at all apparent to me until I had listened to this.

The impression I got from what DD said was that the beginning of sales with Kaiser Permanente (after completion of the user trials) and/or CMS coverage sound like they will definitely be game changers.

Disclaimer: Do your own research. I am not a financial advisor and the above information represents my personal opinions on the research that I have undertaken. I am a holder of a small parcel of PEB shares and currently bullish on PEB's future prospects.

[skid]

My thoughts also Skid!

The Sienna product is much less of a direct competitor than the Oncocyte product.

Oncocyte's product uses the same PCR based biomarker technology as CxBladder, although presumably they are using a different combination of biomarkers. It appears that they are initially targeting use in indeterminate cytology during recurrence surveillance by Pathologists, ie, cells examined from urine samples that are not able to be identified as cancerous or non-cancerous during the monitoring testing that is performed on patients who have already had bladder cancer treated. This actually makes them a direct competitor with the Sienna product.

Initially the Oncocyte product noted above will not be a direct competitor to CxBladder, but according to slides 23 and 24 of this Oncocyte presentation (http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9NTU1NzU4fENoaWxkSUQ 9MjUyNzg0fFR5cGU9MQ==&t=1) (Sept 2014), they plan to later introduce a product that deals with routine monitoring, ie, a product that could compete directly with CxBladder Monitor (not yet released), and finally a product that would deal with the initial diagnosis of bladder cancer, ie, a product that could compete directly with CxBladder Detect.

I would estimate (though I am no expert) that they are at least a year away from having their first product in use by Pathologists and probably 2-3 years away from having their later products (the ones that would compete with CxBladder Monitor and Detect) ready for sales. They do not appear to be as far advanced in their product pipeline as PEB, so I am still comfortable backing PEB as a small shareholder.

Disclaimer: Do your own research. I am not a financial advisor and the above information represents my personal opinions on the research that I have undertaken. I am a holder of a small parcel of PEB shares and currently bullish on PEB's future prospects.


Interesting info--I knew they were due to finish a relatively big trial about the same time as Kaiser but didnt know if their product would be ready then.
On a different note..
To me -It seems like the tests to initially diagnose or rule out cancer would be the tests with the most potential to sell bigger numbers rather than monitor afterwards.

Seems like there would be more who have warning signs and need to rule cancer out,which includes far more people than those who actually have the cancer--guess that would be triage so sooner the better (if my assumption is correct)

[skid]

The question of Spain was raised in the commentary on the full year results (MP3 recording of the conference call) (http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/assets/annual-reports/Annual-2015/2652939.mp3) at around the 16 minute mark (16:00).

Apparently a "key opinion leader" in Spain has identified the biggest market opportunity in Spain as being recurrence monitoring, ie, the market that PEB will be targeting with CxBladder Monitor.
Oryzon has therefore decided that the first PEB product that they want to launch in Spain will be CxBladder Monitor.
Since Monitor has not yet completed final testing and has not yet been made available for sales, I wouldn't expect this to happen in 2015.

I highly recommend that investors in or potential investors in PEB listen to the commentary on the full year results (MP3 recording of the conference call) (http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/assets/annual-reports/Annual-2015/2652939.mp3).
I only got around to doing this myself yesterday and I found the questions and answers very illuminating - David Darling is certainly excited about a lot of things! ;)
The potential of the Southeast Asian market was not at all apparent to me until I had listened to this.

The impression I got from what DD said was that the beginning of sales with Kaiser Permanente (after completion of the user trials) and/or CMS coverage sound like they will definitely be game changers.

Disclaimer: Do your own research. I am not a financial advisor and the above information represents my personal opinions on the research that I have undertaken. I am a holder of a small parcel of PEB shares and currently bullish on PEB's future prospects.

It does seem like alot hangs on to the Kaiser trials and as you say subsequent sales. I would imagine cms coverage would be an integral part of this in terms of affordability so that may be another hurdle(not sure about time frame) Another issue (brought up by Edison) was what kind of commercial price they actually settle on --I think it would be naive to think there wont be some bargaining.

so ATM best case scenario as i see it ,is that there may be big things to come ,but the waiting game continues on the KP trials and then cms coverage--2016----Worries are getting through the capital raising in terms of success--which of course leads to the next issue of cash burn in the mean time while waiting---If what DD said comes to pass-at that point they will be far less exposed than now.
They will have a bit farther to go to reach goals of profitability as well.
The 5 yr plan is most likely out the window--to carry on talking as if it is, will only make investors suspicious IMO.

I dont know anyone who is ever happy about a capital raising for a company still in doubt -so thats the first hurdle(and an important one)

For a new investor who wanted to take a punt-Id wait till that was out of the way first.
For those seeking safer investing Id wait till much closer or even after the KP results and cms coverage--If it all comes together there will still be room for appreciation.

[Iolite]

To me -It seems like the tests to initially diagnose or rule out cancer would be the tests with the most potential to sell bigger numbers rather than monitor afterwards.

Seems like there would be more who have warning signs and need to rule cancer out,which includes far more people than those who actually have the cancer--guess that would be triage so sooner the better (if my assumption is correct)

That's how I see it also, based on the information I have gleaned from the various companies.

For example slide 24 from the Oncocyte presentation (http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9NTU1NzU4fENoaWxkSUQ 9MjUyNzg0fFR5cGU9MQ==&t=1) (Sept 2014) identifies these markets (text in italics added by me):

Pathologist: Resolution of indeterminate cytology during recurrence surveillance
• 500K tests/year in US
(Sienna antibody and proposed initial Oncocyte offering)

Oncologist: All recurrence surveillance
• 1.5M test/year in US
(CxBladder Monitor Vs proposed second Oncocyte offering)

Urologist: Management of hematuria
• >5M tests/year in US
(CxBladder Detect and CxBladder Triage Vs proposed final Oncocyte offering)

So Oncocyte appears to be targeting the smallest market first, whereas PEB are targeting the biggest market first.

It may be that the hurdles to be able to offer products to Pathologists for "inderterminate cytology" are less and perhaps Oncocyte, being aware of PEB's products, figure they are more likely to succeed in that market without having to compete with PEB right from the start.

Disclaimer: Do your own research. I am not a financial advisor and the above information represents my personal opinions on the research that I have undertaken. I am a holder of a small parcel of PEB shares and currently bullish on PEB's future prospects.

[robbo24]

Thanks to the new posters for adding some proper value to this thread for a change.

Has anyone received their offer of money from PEB yet? For their FMA naughty settlement? :D

[Xerof]

There has to be a certain ''reward to shareholders aspect'' and in my experience it works far better when the share is on the rise.

When I held NAN it was enough cheaper that most wanted in and the SP was on the rise as well--That one was definitely oversubscribed---I guess we will have to wait and see on this one.

Not sure if you know the details of the last CR done by PEB skid, but they raised at 55 cents, when the price had spiked to ~1.70 just a few days before, then settled around 1.20 or so. Obviously, the rights issue got taken up, and then we saw price continue on (I think) to 1.50/1.60 level on entry into NZX50. At that time 2 of the directors sold (too pricey for them?), and Hujlich funds also sold, totally.

So, in a way, the "rewards for shareholders aspect" you talk about, were quite obscene really, and it's no wonder there was heavy selling pressure. Too tempting for most of us, especially those who had only just got in (which I would think would be most ST readers), with the exception of hancocks and MAC et al, who spotted this one well before the sheeples.

Whilst I respect some of the arguments repeatedly droned on about by balance and a few others, I personally take the view that short term profits were just too tempting for most and made it particularly easy for people to sell. Having said that, over $1.50 at that time in their life-cycle was a little over the top, and of course, the delays in actually gaining traction have gnawed at a few more nerves.

I have already said what I am going to do with the rights issue. I sold a 5/8ths of my holding a while ago (a bit later than those lucky b'stards mentioned above) so am sitting pretty and ready to pick my rights up. And maybe a few more if the underwriters want to bottle later.

[skid]

Not sure if you know the details of the last CR done by PEB skid, but they raised at 55 cents, when the price had spiked to ~1.70 just a few days before, then settled around 1.20 or so. Obviously, the rights issue got taken up, and then we saw price continue on (I think) to 1.50/1.60 level on entry into NZX50. At that time 2 of the directors sold (too pricey for them?), and Hujlich funds also sold, totally.

So, in a way, the "rewards for shareholders aspect" you talk about, were quite obscene really, and it's no wonder there was heavy selling pressure. Too tempting for most of us, especially those who had only just got in (which I would think would be most ST readers), with the exception of hancocks and MAC et al, who spotted this one well before the sheeples.

Whilst I respect some of the arguments repeatedly droned on about by balance and a few others, I personally take the view that short term profits were just too tempting for most and made it particularly easy for people to sell. Having said that, over $1.50 at that time in their life-cycle was a little over the top, and of course, the delays in actually gaining traction have gnawed at a few more nerves.

I have already said what I am going to do with the rights issue. I sold a 5/8ths of my holding a while ago (a bit later than those lucky b'stards mentioned above) so am sitting pretty and ready to pick my rights up. And maybe a few more if the underwriters want to bottle later.

You have missed my point which is that there needs to be a certain amount of incentive for SH to take up the rights--(obviously there was heaps the first time(what did you think of how management handled that one?)Sounds like we both agree there was a bit to much incentive that time around eh?--But my point is THIS rights issue is dangerously close to the actual SP--If the SP falls 3-5c who is going to take up the rights?--That would surely be a test of faith--to lose money by taking up the rights.
If the SP stays at this level then it will be fine but all Im saying is that its a bit dangerous this time around for that reason(this might have been the time to reward SH like yourself with a bit better price(for your and possibly the companies benefit)
I think it might have been safer to give a bit more ,even if there was a little selling for profit.
Have you considered what will happen if the rights issue gets no interest?

Hancocks and Mac certainly did spot this one early--but it would have gone nowhere without the Sheeples:)

[skid]

Thanks to the new posters for adding some proper value to this thread for a change.

Looks like you've got some new friends NG:p

[Xerof]

In order of your questions:

Rights Issue take several months to set up, so it was too late to change the pricing last time. I have already covered what I saw as unfortunate consequences.

the underwriter

I have just witnessed a CR filled at a premium - most holders are thankful for a small discount.

No interest? The underwriter will take them, and if they dump, there will be some cheaper shares on offer.

[trader_jackson]

So far, share price is holding up, although very early days that is for sure. I think the uptake of this issue will be strong, but will be interesting to see how it goes.

[skid]

In order of your questions:

Rights Issue take several months to set up, so it was too late to change the pricing last time. I have already covered what I saw as unfortunate consequences.

the underwriter

I have just witnessed a CR filled at a premium - most holders are thankful for a small discount.

No interest? The underwriter will take them, and if they dump, there will be some cheaper shares on offer.

Interesting so peb will get their dosh one way or the other -certainly a situation that will be an education

[Baa_Baa]

Do any of the products have endorsements from practicing NZ oncologists or urologists that also use the products?

Sorry, it's me quoting myself again but I think it's a valid question and prefer not to be lost in the noise. Thanks to Xerof for trying to answer this question albeit an unsatisfying answer. Surprising no-one seems to really know? Or maybe those that know are banned or exiled themselves and can't answer?

The reason for me asking the question is to better understand that if it is continually touted that PEB is the best test available, the problem as I understand it is that unless the test is proven to be 100% accurate a urologist can’t rely on it without further intervention.

The reality then, is the test has both false positives and false negatives.

A false positive should result in a follow up by a urologist i.e. you get to the gold standard, which is an in-person diagnosis by a urologist.

Critical then is the false negatives. A false negative means you don’t get picked up by the test. It then doesn’t matter really whether the test is 80% or even 99% accurate. You cannot be sure of it, therefore you are going to end up with the gold standard urologist diagnosis anyway for certainty.

Either way you require the gold standard in-person diagnosis. So what savings or efficiencies have eventuated from the PEB tests? Why would the NZ practitioners choose to use the PEB tests? Why would these tests be funded by the government who control the NZ health sector? Or why would these tests be funded by the insurers who co-fund the health sector?

As I then see it the tests may have limited and highly qualified screening use. Either way the test results in an in-person diagnosis.

I don't understand why these tests haven't been taken up in NZ if it's as good as some say it is.

Can someone answer the basic question first, whether any of the PEB products have endorsements from practicing NZ oncologists or urologists that also use the products?

[Xerof]

Try talking with someone who knows

brent.pownall@pacificedgedx.com

Commercial Director

I find him very helpful, and satisfying:t_up:

thats all from me on this thread, I'm joining the can't be bothered brigade

[Carpenterjoe]

Sorry, it's me quoting myself again but I think it's a valid question and prefer not to be lost in the noise. Thanks to Xerof for trying to answer this question albeit an unsatisfying answer. Surprising no-one seems to really know? Or maybe those that know are banned or exiled themselves and can't answer?

The reason for me asking the question is to better understand that if it is continually touted that PEB is the best test available, the problem as I understand it is that unless the test is proven to be 100% accurate a urologist can’t rely on it without further intervention.

The reality then, is the test has both false positives and false negatives.

A false positive should result in a follow up by a urologist i.e. you get to the gold standard, which is an in-person diagnosis by a urologist.

Critical then is the false negatives. A false negative means you don’t get picked up by the test. It then doesn’t matter really whether the test is 80% or even 99% accurate. You cannot be sure of it, therefore you are going to end up with the gold standard urologist diagnosis anyway for certainty.

Either way you require the gold standard in-person diagnosis. So what savings or efficiencies have eventuated from the PEB tests? Why would the NZ practitioners choose to use the PEB tests? Why would these tests be funded by the government who control the NZ health sector? Or why would these tests be funded by the insurers who co-fund the health sector?

As I then see it the tests may have limited and highly qualified screening use. Either way the test results in an in-person diagnosis.

I don't understand why these tests haven't been taken up in NZ if it's as good as some say it is.

Can someone answer the basic question first, whether any of the PEB products have endorsements from practicing NZ oncologists or urologists that also use the products?

Umm, try Peter Davidson, his name is mentioned on the cx bladder website.

http://www.urology.co.nz/

How many urologists are there in NZ? 50? Can't remember. Not sure its a important market, (for lots of reasons)
Do we even have a NZ sales person?

Sales are now up and running.
Options for market expansion are being explored.
Keep an eye on who's buying and selling.

I could be wrong, but reimbursement/cash-flow for Multiplan is only two months in.

Still haven't decided on a fair target for November.

[Minerbarejet]

Sorry, it's me quoting myself again but I think it's a valid question and prefer not to be lost in the noise. Thanks to Xerof for trying to answer this question albeit an unsatisfying answer. Surprising no-one seems to really know? Or maybe those that know are banned or exiled themselves and can't answer?

The reason for me asking the question is to better understand that if it is continually touted that PEB is the best test available, the problem as I understand it is that unless the test is proven to be 100% accurate a urologist can’t rely on it without further intervention.

The reality then, is the test has both false positives and false negatives.

A false positive should result in a follow up by a urologist i.e. you get to the gold standard, which is an in-person diagnosis by a urologist.

Critical then is the false negatives. A false negative means you don’t get picked up by the test. It then doesn’t matter really whether the test is 80% or even 99% accurate. You cannot be sure of it, therefore you are going to end up with the gold standard urologist diagnosis anyway for certainty.

Either way you require the gold standard in-person diagnosis. So what savings or efficiencies have eventuated from the PEB tests? Why would the NZ practitioners choose to use the PEB tests? Why would these tests be funded by the government who control the NZ health sector? Or why would these tests be funded by the insurers who co-fund the health sector?

As I then see it the tests may have limited and highly qualified screening use. Either way the test results in an in-person diagnosis.

I don't understand why these tests haven't been taken up in NZ if it's as good as some say it is.

Can someone answer the basic question first, whether any of the PEB products have endorsements from practicing NZ oncologists or urologists that also use the products?
The primary objective of the cxbladder is to provide an adjunct to the gold standard. This means that there is a very good chance that cxbladder will pick up those cases that the urologists ( with varying degrees of competence) do not find.
This was brought to light in the initial clinical program when cxbladder discovered 4 additional cases that werent confirmed by cystoscopy originally but were later proven to be correct at a followup.
Cxbladder also found all upper tract cases.
You cannot be sure of it using a urologist alone as the gold standard.
This assumes that all human urologists are equally competent.
Cxbladder gives them a chance to level up the competency by eliminating human fallibility.
Daydreaming, hangover, marital problems, business worries, etc
Ask yourself this, in NZ are all the doctors of equal ability and standard of competence?

[skid]

The primary objective of the cxbladder is to provide an adjunct to the gold standard. This means that there is a very good chance that cxbladder will pick up those cases that the urologists ( with varying degrees of competence) do not find.
This was brought to light in the initial clinical program when cxbladder discovered 4 additional cases that werent confirmed by cystoscopy originally but were later proven to be correct at a followup.
Cxbladder also found all upper tract cases.
You cannot be sure of it using a urologist alone as the gold standard.
This assumes that all human urologists are equally competent.
Cxbladder gives them a chance to level up the competency by eliminating human fallibility.
Daydreaming, hangover, marital problems, business worries, etc
Ask yourself this, in NZ are all the doctors of equal ability and standard of competence?

So dont worry if Urologists endorse the product--some of them are incompetent anyway,with hangovers ,and daydreaming problems.
Bienvenue Le Miner..


But of course ,most know the product is good(at least around here) its the ''Urologists endorsements'' thats the Achilles heal....and other things that translate into sales

[Apathy]

The primary objective of the cxbladder is to provide an adjunct to the gold standard. This means that there is a very good chance that cxbladder will pick up those cases that the urologists ( with varying degrees of competence) do not find.
This was brought to light in the initial clinical program when cxbladder discovered 4 additional cases that werent confirmed by cystoscopy originally but were later proven to be correct at a followup.
Cxbladder also found all upper tract cases.
You cannot be sure of it using a urologist alone as the gold standard.
This assumes that all human urologists are equally competent.
Cxbladder gives them a chance to level up the competency by eliminating human fallibility.
Daydreaming, hangover, marital problems, business worries, etc
Ask yourself this, in NZ are all the doctors of equal ability and standard of competence?

So what they should be doing is revising their marketing strategy to target incompetent Urologists!? It sounds a bit niche for a company currently capitalized at $200m plus but who knows - sector could be bigger than we realize.

[skid]

Umm, try Peter Davidson, his name is mentioned on the cx bladder website.

http://www.urology.co.nz/

How many urologists are there in NZ? 50? Can't remember. Not sure its a important market, (for lots of reasons)
Do we even have a NZ sales person?

Sales are now up and running.
Options for market expansion are being explored.
Keep an eye on who's buying and selling.

I could be wrong, but reimbursement/cash-flow for Multiplan is only two months in.

Still haven't decided on a fair target for November.

These are more pertenent questions --Especially Sales are up and running
They signed up Multiplan this time last year so Im guessing they are more than 2 months in--Why more cash has not come in from this group has puzzled me. (you saw the sales)especially compared to money spent to get them.

In terms of whos buying and selling. There are going to be over 57,000,000 new shares hitting the market--UNDERWRITERS they will either be selling of buying(by default)

so those buying will mostly IMO be holders taking up the options (or possibly some buying to be holders to take up options) So the first step is to see who the big holders are.

If not enough take up the options, the underwriters will be the owners,and then unless they have decided to be involved in speculating on the co. they will have to sell to the market--(thats when things get interesting ,if it come to that)
So anyone buying big time before this is hashed out is playing a rather high stakes game.

Once that is all sorted ,then I suppose its business as usual and we can go on thinking about fundamentals again in terms of buying or selling

[skid]

So what they should be doing is revising their marketing strategy to target incompetent Urologists!? It sounds a bit niche for a company currently capitalized at $200m plus but who knows - sector could be bigger than we realize.


Soon to be 235mil

[nextbigthing]

This isn't downramping, this is trying to allay genuine concerns about PEB, which I think people need to consider. I know this has been raised before but there was never really a proper answer. I only loosely follow PEB.

Did anyone ask (or did DD cover in any of his presentations) why they've had had very little success in NZ after years of trying? I appreciate the NZ and US health systems are different, but if Urologists in NZ aren't really interested, why will the US ones be?

There needs to be some point where you say enough is enough. From what I can see, it has more or less failed in NZ. How much more time and money do they need to make NZ a success? What else can they do? At what point do you say, it didn't work?

They stated the last cap raising would see them through to profitability and then they ask for more cash. To me that looks like they're failing in the US. It has effectively happened in NZ already.

Surely this has to be massive alarm bells? How was this justified to investors?

Cheers, NBT

[skid]

June 7 is the date that investors buying PEB shares will no longer be able to qualify for the rights offer of .61----If the SP is above that it could ''adjust''----the next period to look for is after the rights issue closes and we see if the underwriter has shares it wants or needs to sell.
If it is oversubscribed then of course that is a good thing and momentum could be upward rather than downward---So Imo aside from whatever one thinks about fundamentals,there will be other market forces at work for awhile yet.

[couta1]

NBT I could fill many pages explaining the difference between the US and NZ health systems but just think of NZ urologists(And other specialists) as having dinasaur thinking combined with mule like resistance to change compared to their US counterparts and that would sum it up:cool:

[davflaws]

I have recurrent bladder cancer and cystoscopy two or three times a year with TURBT required annually (on average). Four years ago my urologist believed cxbladder was only for screening chemical workers and those with occupational exposure. Two years ago he believed it would be useful as adjunct screening for people like me, but that money was the problem since cystoscopy "didn't cost that much". On year ago he said that funding for trials was being negotiated by my DHB. This year (after discussion with a new registrar who is a shareholder) he believes that cxbladder will be a valuable adjunct as a screening and monitoring tool.

[nextbigthing]

Aus/NZ sales figures were WAY up at the last FY. How can you say it has failed?

Hey NG,

Fair question. From this https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/213896.pdf it looks like the segmented revenue for NZ is under half a million. Half a mil after all that effort, money and time. Surely that's enough to say it has failed. Sure it's up a huge percentage but a) off a tiny base and b) not to a large enough number to cut it.

Cheers

[skid]

Aus/NZ sales figures were WAY up at the last FY. How can you say it has failed?

Have you worked that out on a cash spent per sale basis?

[winner69]

Hey NG,

Fair question. From this https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/213896.pdf it looks like the segmented revenue for NZ is under half a million. Half a mil after all that effort, money and time. Surely that's enough to say it has failed. Sure it's up a huge percentage but a) off a tiny base and b) not to a large enough number to cut it.

Cheers

Lab sales (tests) went from $50k to $120k .......big increase

The other NZ income is mainly grants etc, corporate welfare payments

[nextbigthing]

Lab sales (tests) went from $50k to $120k .......big increase

The other NZ income is mainly grants etc, corporate welfare payments

Thanks Winner, quite right. $120k of 'genuine sales.' Surely this is a fail in NZ. Then they ask for more cash to continue ops in the US even though they thought they would be profitable by now, meaning it looks like the US is following the same path NZ has already taken. How did DD try and justify this? Big questions need to be asked.

[skid]

I have recurrent bladder cancer and cystoscopy two or three times a year with TURBT required annually (on average). Four years ago my urologist believed cxbladder was only for screening chemical workers and those with occupational exposure. Two years ago he believed it would be useful as adjunct screening for people like me, but that money was the problem since cystoscopy "didn't cost that much". On year ago he said that funding for trials was being negotiated by my DHB. This year (after discussion with a new registrar who is a shareholder) he believes that cxbladder will be a valuable adjunct as a screening and monitoring tool.

an interesting post Dav from someone who has been through the process you have.--These things certainly take time.
One key element was the change ,once the registrar got involved who is a shareholder.
It just goes to show the difference when the product is actually recognized--which really is the key isnt it?
If every one knew what the regestrar knew (by being a SH?) then things would roll along faster possibly.

Im not sure we can wait that long in the US so that recognition is paramount---In 2016 from KP?--one would hope

[skid]

Its only 1000 shares folks --dont panic---I suppose the buy -sell gap is a good representation of how split opinion is these days

[dagoldtoof]

Mid Central DHB will soon have completed valuation of 400 patients enlisted in trial two years ago, think results are due this month....BOP and Lakes District have trials running also...

[nextbigthing]

Mid Central DHB will soon have completed valuation of 400 patients enlisted in trial two years ago, think results are due this month....BOP and Lakes District have trials running also...

Thanks dagoldtoof.

That would suggest two things to me;

1) It hasn't failed yet, it's just taking wwwaaaaaayyyyyyyy longer than planned

2) Given the above, the US still has a looonnnngggg way to breakeven. Meaning this would not be the last cap raising required.

[skid]

That should help but why does Everyone have to do a trial--you'd think that BOP would take Mid Centrals word for it---Guess thats just how things work in the med field

[Iolite]

This is what DD said in the commentary of the FY results (http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/assets/annual-reports/Annual-2015/2652939.mp3) (around 17:25) in response to a questions about penetration into the NZ Market:

“…there is further growth to come. We’ve got some exciting developments in process and we look forward to announcing these as they come up. You know New Zealand is our home market. It is extremely small. There are 40 urologists in New Zealand. There are 260 in Australia, so between us we have 300. Compared to the 10,500 they have in the United States you can get a metric. However we’re able to do some really innovative things here and of course the launch of the e-commerce platform was really really exciting, and we see a significant and growing number of people coming directly to us and then we’re able to take all those results straight to their defined preferred healthcare provider, such as their GP or their Urologist. And what we’ve seen in the market is we’ve seen some strong bold steps out with, you know, the likes of MidCentral District Health Board, Urotech, who service Bay of Plenty and Lakes District Health Boards, and we’ve seen even a large company in New Zealand, who arguably may be in the at-risk industry for their in-field operators have used our test for their people. So yeah some very exciting things happening in New Zealand, but still a very small market.”

Evidently they are using NZ as the test market, eg, to launch the products initially and other things like the e-commerce website, before they apply their findings to their main target market, which is the US.

[winner69]

I highly recommend that investors in or potential investors in PEB listen to the commentary on the full year results (MP3 recording of the conference call) (http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/assets/annual-reports/Annual-2015/2652939.mp3).
I only got around to doing this myself yesterday and I found the questions and answers very illuminating - David Darling is certainly excited about a lot of things! ;)
The potential of the Southeast Asian market was not at all apparent to me until I had listened to this.

The impression I got from what DD said was that the beginning of sales with Kaiser Permanente (after completion of the user trials) and/or CMS coverage sound like they will definitely be game changers.

Disclaimer: Do your own research. I am not a financial advisor and the above information represents my personal opinions on the research that I have undertaken. I am a holder of a small parcel of PEB shares and currently bullish on PEB's future prospects.

Always good those briefings although the questions asked are bit weak and not very searching

Have you gone back and listened to all the previous ones?

[skid]

This is what DD said in the commentary of the FY results (http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/assets/annual-reports/Annual-2015/2652939.mp3) (around 17:25) in response to a questions about penetration into the NZ Market:

“…there is further growth to come. We’ve got some exciting developments in process and we look forward to announcing these as they come up. You know New Zealand is our home market. It is extremely small. There are 40 urologists in New Zealand. There are 260 in Australia, so between us we have 300. Compared to the 10,500 they have in the United States you can get a metric. However we’re able to do some really innovative things here and of course the launch of the e-commerce platform was really really exciting, and we see a significant and growing number of people coming directly to us and then we’re able to take all those results straight to their defined preferred healthcare provider, such as their GP or their Urologist. And what we’ve seen in the market is we’ve seen some strong bold steps out with, you know, the likes of MidCentral District Health Board, Urotech, who service Bay of Plenty and Lakes District Health Boards, and we’ve seen even a large company in New Zealand, who arguably may be in the at-risk industry for their in-field operators have used our test for their people. So yeah some very exciting things happening in New Zealand, but still a very small market.”

Evidently they are using NZ as the test market, eg, to launch the products initially and other things like the e-commerce website, before they apply their findings to their main target market, which is the US.

I would take that last sentence with a grain of salt --Otherwise why all the fuss and expense of the KP trials in the USA? (when THEY are sorted things should be looking up--just that things take so loooooong.

I dont subscribe to the ''company is going down the tubes'' theory --but those days of ''better get in now before the SP goes ballistic'' are over for the medium term at least (unless something big happens in the mean time)

[skid]

I would expect we will get some serious PR stuff before the June 7 cut off--They need to get that SP up

[Apathy]

I would expect we will get some serious PR stuff before the June 7 cut off--They need to get that SP up

I hope you are wrong - they need to scale back the PR and regain some credibility.

[Thor]

This is what DD said in the commentary of the FY results (http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/assets/annual-reports/Annual-2015/2652939.mp3) (around 17:25) in response to a questions about penetration into the NZ Market:

“… However we’re able to do some really innovative things here and of course the launch of the e-commerce platform was really really exciting, and we see a significant and growing number of people coming directly to us and then we’re able to take all those results straight to their defined preferred healthcare provider, such as their GP or their Urologist..”


Whenever I hear DD going on about that e-commerce site, like it's some amazing new technology allowing people to order something online, it makes me lose confidence. Have you actually seen it? It's just a simple form on their website. There is nothing innovative or exciting here. How many people are going to order a kit instead of going to see their doctor first? Almost non IMO. Just more hype.

[ddrone]

Looking at the price relative to the rights issue 62c seems to be fair value to me and in respects to the pre-announcement price represents a discount of a small margin. I recall a similar reaction to the last rights issue followed by a healthy bounce. Wouldn't be surprised if we see something like that this time around, if a little more subdued.

[ddrone]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11460387

[Apathy]

Whenever I hear DD going on about that e-commerce site, like it's some amazing new technology allowing people to order something online, it makes me lose confidence. Have you actually seen it? It's just a simple form on their website. There is nothing innovative or exciting here. How many people are going to order a kit instead of going to see their doctor first? Almost non IMO. Just more hype.

As funny as it seems I suspect the market for hypochondriacs and the self diagnosing is probably reasonably large. Not enough to bank roll these guys but maybe a dollar in it. Can't imagine its a great way to endear yourself to the medical profession either.

That said - seems like they have no real distribution plan. Always concerns me when a company needs to set up its own sales force as they can't find a distributor. Next thing happens is they can't wholesale it so end up retail or going direct.. slippery slope. They are opening new markets (Sth East Asia) without positive cash flow from existing markets - is that really a risk they need to take - or can afford to take?

[Harvey Specter]

As funny as it seems I suspect the market for hypochondriacs and the self diagnosing is probably reasonably large. Not enough to bank roll these guys but maybe a dollar in it. Can't imagine its a great way to endear yourself to the medical profession either.

That said - seems like they have no real distribution plan. Always concerns me when a company needs to set up its own sales force as they can't find a distributor. Next thing happens is they can't wholesale it so end up retail or going direct.. slippery slope. They are opening new markets (Sth East Asia) without positive cash flow from existing markets - is that really a risk they need to take - or can afford to take?
Id say more for those that have previously had it. I think the Mad Butcher gets the test done regularly. Why bother with the hassle of going into the doctor?

[pierre]

They are opening new markets (Sth East Asia) without positive cash flow from existing markets - is that really a risk they need to take - or can afford to take?

Singapore is a market opportunity only recognised relatively recently but one they obviously feel is worth pursuing in addition to everything else they are working on. The funds from the CR will enable this risk to be taken as well as continuing the push into the US.

Like the PEB management team, I hope both markets prove to be highly successful.

[Apathy]

Singapore is a market opportunity only recognised relatively recently but one they obviously feel is worth pursuing in addition to everything else they are working on. The funds from the CR will enable this risk to be taken as well as continuing the push into the US.

Like the PEB management team, I hope both markets prove to be highly successful.

From the CEO in annual result commentary "The US is the world’s largest healthcare market, with over 10,000 urologists and millions of potential clinical opportunities for the use of our Cxbladder products. The revenue potential in this market is immense and it is our primary focus for growth"

Clearly if the crack the US they are sorted but given they burnt $12m in cash on operations last year (which will increase on back of US ramp up) and there is no timeline as to when they might be profitable or even cash positive I just question whether it is worth the risk/distraction.

Not disagreeing with the need to be in SEA - just timing.

[skid]

Id say more for those that have previously had it. I think the Mad Butcher gets the test done regularly. Why bother with the hassle of going into the doctor?


absolutely--You can buy them off the rack, right nest to the pork bellies

[skid]

From the CEO in annual result commentary "The US is the world’s largest healthcare market, with over 10,000 urologists and millions of potential clinical opportunities for the use of our Cxbladder products. The revenue potential in this market is immense and it is our primary focus for growth"

Clearly if the crack the US they are sorted but given they burnt $12m in cash on operations last year (which will increase on back of US ramp up) and there is no timeline as to when they might be profitable or even cash positive I just question whether it is worth the risk/distraction.

Not disagreeing with the need to be in SEA - just timing.

Thats right--establish your market--get some cash flowing--then expand into other markets-in that order--Im not sure this is the time to up the stakes.


As much as i support good marketing--It seems like a good time to hold fire (or at least not try to ramp up)until the long awaited KP trials and hopefully CMS coverage come--instead they have choosen an all out assault.

Meanwhile its hard to know if we have investor or underwriter buying..

[skid]

It would be interesting to know if the underwriters have stepped in to give the SP a small lift for the weekend--pretty easy on such low volume.

[Carpenterjoe]

From the CEO in annual result commentary "The US is the world’s largest healthcare market, with over 10,000 urologists and millions of potential clinical opportunities for the use of our Cxbladder products. The revenue potential in this market is immense and it is our primary focus for growth"

Clearly if the crack the US they are sorted but given they burnt $12m in cash on operations last year (which will increase on back of US ramp up) and there is no timeline as to when they might be profitable or even cash positive I just question whether it is worth the risk/distraction.

Not disagreeing with the need to be in SEA - just timing.

Remember most of the cash burn is at home (r and d) and this is a must have expense, outflows from the operations in the states is around 4 mil, so cash positive from USA operations around the end of year. I know it's a positive spin.

[skid]

Singapore is a market opportunity only recognised relatively recently but one they obviously feel is worth pursuing in addition to everything else they are working on. The funds from the CR will enable this risk to be taken as well as continuing the push into the US.

Like the PEB management team, I hope both markets prove to be highly successful.

Singapore it self has a population of 1 mil more than NZ so its not huge--If it leads on to other countries in the area ,thats great,but it would have to be priced much cheaper. (and I can tell you categorically they are a long way from insurance co picking up the tab, for most of the population) Because they dont have it in most Southeast Asian countries.
Singapore may be an exception but the rest are not getting looked after by the Gov.

When I go to Northern Thailand I stay in a Bungalow for around $13 NZ night.Compare that to here and you will start to get an idea of the affordability of the test.

Singapore is more expensive,but like I say, not to much bigger population wise, than NZ (geographically its tiny)

The only way I can see it working over there is to reduce the cost down to the bare bones and try to sell alot of tests

[skid]

Remember most of the cash burn is at home (r and d) and this is a must have expense, outflows from the operations in the states is around 4 mil, so cash positive from USA operations around the end of year. I know it's a positive spin.

Reciepts from customers was about 1.2 mil,the rest was grants ,interest and foreign exchange gains,so not cash positive for USA(if your talking productive income) actually grants and interest totaled more than reciepts--Thats like saying you are productive because you are receiving unemployment.

R&D is great but the big question remains --can they sell it--Its the door that leads to all the other doors.

If you look at the medical world as a car--PEB is making great strides in making good glove box latches.

[NT001]

Singapore it self has a population of 1 mil more than NZ so its not huge--If it leads on to other countries in the area ,thats great,but it would have to be priced much cheaper. (and I can tell you categorically they are a long way from insurance co picking up the tab, for most of the population) Because they dont have it in most Southeast Asian countries. Singapore may be an exception but the rest are not getting looked after by the Gov.

When I go to Northern Thailand I stay in a Bungalow for around $13 NZ night.Compare that to here and you will start to get an idea of the affordability of the test. Singapore is more expensive,but like I say, not to much bigger population wise, than NZ (geographically its tiny). The only way I can see it working over there is to reduce the cost down to the bare bones and try to sell alot of tests

Skid, there's absolutely no comparison between costs and incomes in provincial areas of northern Thailand and those in Singapore, and therefore no lesson whatever to be drawn from citing such costs. But more to the point, DD has made clear the market seen in Singapore and possibly Bangkok, which are high-cost economies with top-class health facilities catering for the rich, is not the local villagers but very wealthy "medical tourists" from places like Europe, USA and China.

PEB wouldn't need a large army of salespeople to market its product to a few selected clinics there that want to offer their loaded foreign clients the newest, most reliable and least unpleasant diagnostic procedures. And it's not a question of whether Cxbladder would be covered by a local health insurance scheme - that's irrelevant. Nor would it be necessary to offer Cxbladder at cheap rates to attract the local peasantry. The foreign medical tourists who are the target market will in some cases have their own generous health insurance cover, and in other cases they will simply be willing to pay from their own pockets. If they've spent thousands of dollars travelling to Singapiore for treatment, are they going to argue over the odd couple of hundred dollars difference in price?

If initial inquiries have shown promise, as DD says is the case, I say PEB would be absolutely silly to say "oh no, we have to ignore such opportunities and focus only on waiting for the US bureaucratic machinery to grind into action". No one's saying Singapore or Bangkok will bring the big numbers of tests that could eventually flow from US approvals, but to me it seems like an opportunity not to be ignored.

[artemis]

As funny as it seems I suspect the market for hypochondriacs and the self diagnosing is probably reasonably large. Not enough to bank roll these guys but maybe a dollar in it. Can't imagine its a great way to endear yourself to the medical profession either. ......

Wonder if PEB has looked at targeting susceptible occupations. Anyone know? Quite a big market there.

[NT001]

Wonder if PEB has looked at targeting susceptible occupations. Anyone know? Quite a big market there.

Not sure whether PEB has been "targeting" them, but DD did mention in his online conference call (around 18min 30sec) that a large NZ company whose operational staff are regarded as potentially at risk has used Cxbladder.