HLG - Hallenstein Glasson

[dibble]

if gen y do go back in droves ( i doubt it as heaps them be losing jobs and apparel suffers during recession) those buying around $2 odd lol got bargain of the century

It is remotely possible that Gen Ys may not do so badly. When the rehiring starts in bits and pieces there might be a preference to take back the smart, hungry, tech savvy 30yo on $120k ahead of the irritable, tired 45yo on $200+k. Speculation of course but if so our clothing market (plus others) may have resilience.

[bull....]

It is remotely possible that Gen Ys may not do so badly. When the rehiring starts in bits and pieces there might be a preference to take back the smart, hungry, tech savvy 30yo on $120k ahead of the irritable, tired 45yo on $200+k. Speculation of course but if so our clothing market (plus others) may have resilience.

hiring intentions lot of guess work for sure guess it depends on how the economy changes and adapts going forward to know what are the skills required in people needed for new business models.

[Filthy]

apparel suffers during recession

I guess not all apparel is equal though. HLG is probably pitched towards the lower-to-mid end range of the market, so may benefit more than its industry peers who offer 'high end' fashion, that customers can no longer afford (i.e. luxury items), much the same way fast food chains tend to do okay in a recession. not saying there wouldn't be any impact on HLG, just that it might not be as bad as punters think.... the product mix and offering has to be right though. I remember months ago we talked about a pair of.... pink flamingo shorts(??)... yeah... nah....
disc. holding & happy

[bull....]

I guess not all apparel is equal though. HLG is probably pitched towards the lower-to-mid end range of the market, so may benefit more than its industry peers who offer 'high end' fashion, that customers can no longer afford (i.e. luxury items), much the same way fast food chains tend to do okay in a recession. not saying there wouldn't be any impact on HLG, just that it might not be as bad as punters think.... the product mix and offering has to be right though. I remember months ago we talked about a pair of.... pink flamingo shorts(??)... yeah... nah....
disc. holding & happy

current pricing of the stock suggests investors are hoping the decline in sales is not to bad

[Filthy]

current pricing of the stock suggests investors are hoping the decline in sales is not to bad

yep. likely to tread water for a bit. if sales can get something close to (or thereabouts) vs previous few years, that would be okay in my view. it was never the growth company some made it out to be, just a normal cyclical, with a reliable divi - prudently deferred not cancelled.

[bull....]

it was never the growth company some made it out to be, just a normal cyclical, with a reliable divi - prudently deferred not cancelled.

spot on

im picking div should be postponed for the entire year to cover the lease obligations and as a precaution in uncertain times , also still think there is a possible case more debt or cap raising is needed if sales turn out worse than expected

[Brain]

I sold out a while ago at a lower price than they are trading at now. Timing was bad but I still think I did the right thing. I Just cannot see that HLG will come out of this disaster anytime soon. Shopping malls are closed and sure they will reopen in the near future but unemployment will persist driven by the collapse of the tourism industry and all the restaurants and bars and hotels that rely on tourism. Many businesses HLG included are going to have a very rough ride for a long time.

[Balance]

I sold out a while ago at a lower price than they are trading at now. Timing was bad but I still think I did the right thing. I Just cannot see that HLG will come out of this disaster anytime soon. Shopping malls are closed and sure they will reopen in the near future but unemployment will persist driven by the collapse of the tourism industry and all the restaurants and bars and hotels that rely on tourism. Many businesses HLG included are going to have a very rough ride for a long time.

HLG is one retailer which has not only survived but thrived with the test of time and numerous crises.

This one will be no different for a company with very conservative balance sheet (zero debts & $12.8m in cash as at 30 March 2020) and top class management.

If any clothing retailer is going to survive the recession, HLG not only will but its product range can be re-designed and price points adjusted to meet the market.

Dis. Not a holder but big supporter of NZ companies (Briscoe is another) which are well run and conservatively financed with no debts.

[Brain]

HLG is one retailer which has not only survived but thrived with the test of time and numerous crises.

This one will be no different for a company with very conservative balance sheet (zero debts & $12.8m in cash as at 30 March 2020) and top class management.

If any clothing retailer is going to survive the recession, HLG not only will but its product range can be re-designed and price points adjusted to meet the market.

Dis. Not a holder but big supporter of NZ companies (Briscoe is another) which are well run and conservatively financed with no debts.

I agree balance this is a very well managed company but this crisis is one out of the bag. In February I thought the virus was just another flu. Some medical guys thought the same. I am trying to invest in companies with a tail wind and in these times an occasional puff will do. My view is that HLG is going to have to work very hard and be exceptionally smart to get through this. The cards are not stacked in its favour.

[Jantar]

…. My view is that HLG is going to have to work very hard and be exceptionally smart to get through this. The cards are not stacked in its favour. No matter what happens, people still need clothes. Right now I am in need of something as simple as a couple of pair of socks. I agree that many clothing stores will struggle, yet I see HLG as being able to make the most of it and come out ahead of their competition.

[Balance]

No matter what happens, people still need clothes. Right now I am in need of something as simple as a couple of pair of socks. I agree that many clothing stores will struggle, yet I see HLG as being able to make the most of it and come out ahead of their competition.

HLG is market positioned at the mid to low end of the clothing market, offering value for fashionable clothings of average quality imo.

Perfectly positioned for the economic conditions we are going to have to endure for the next little while.

Mid to high end retailers like H&M & Zara - I cannot see them surviving.

[peat]

HLG is one retailer which has not only survived but thrived with the test of time and numerous crises.




but this crisis is one out of the bag.
My view is that HLG is going to have to work very hard and be exceptionally smart to get through this.

They have shown the capability !!
Now is a test of your faith arising from those previous successes

[JeremyALD]

I think Hallensteins will do fine, but imo $4 is too much given the enormous challenges of the retail industry and the lower margins we will likely see as retailers fight for share of wallet.

[Cyclical]

I sold out a while ago at a lower price than they are trading at now. Timing was bad but I still think I did the right thing. I Just cannot see that HLG will come out of this disaster anytime soon. Shopping malls are closed and sure they will reopen in the near future but unemployment will persist driven by the collapse of the tourism industry and all the restaurants and bars and hotels that rely on tourism. Many businesses HLG included are going to have a very rough ride for a long time.

I did too, at about a dollar less than they are currently...what was I thinking?! But then not long before they were down at about $1.80, so certainly thought I'd made the right decision at the time. I guess we could say similar things about a lot stocks at the moment and bargains are becoming slim pickings. Only time will tell if things will drop back over the coming months and start to retest lows (although I'm not expecting this one to get anywhere near $1.80 again). Like Jeremy, I'm not keen to get back in there at the current price.

[ratkin]

Hearing on the grapevine (courier mate) that Glassons are the hot new online shop when it comes to escalating parcel deliveries. Parcel volumes generally are breaking records every day, far busier than xmas

[Cyclical]

Hearing on the grapevine (courier mate) that Glassons are the hot new online shop when it comes to escalating parcel deliveries. Parcel volumes generally are breaking records every day, far busier than xmas

Yep, about the only things on my credit card for the last month are groceries, my daughter's Glassons' shopping and the wife's Rebel's shopping :scared:

[percy]

Hearing on the grapevine (courier mate) that Glassons are the hot new online shop when it comes to escalating parcel deliveries. Parcel volumes generally are breaking records every day, far busier than xmas

Keep to your bubble.
Don't come running around Opawa/Hillsborough in your girlie gear.......................lol

[Cyclical]

Keep to your bubble.
Don't come running around Opawa/Hillsborough in your girlie gear.......................lol

Hahaha, as much as my wife says she'd like to return to her roots, when push comes to shove, she's not really interested in going back to Chch, so I think you're safe ;-)

[percy]

Hahaha, as much as my wife says she'd like to return to her roots, when push comes to shove, she's not really interested in going back to Chch, so I think you're safe ;-)

Its Ratkin who is the worry..............
He lives in South West Sydenham....lol

[JeremyALD]

Hearing on the grapevine (courier mate) that Glassons are the hot new online shop when it comes to escalating parcel deliveries. Parcel volumes generally are breaking records every day, far busier than xmas

I do think they will reap the benefits of their significant focus on ecommerce. They already had a significant amount of volume going through online precovid.

[TheHunter]

I do think they will reap the benefits of their significant focus on ecommerce. They already had a significant amount of volume going through online precovid.

The top line may of course do OK considering the current conditions and their e-commerce efforts... but at what margins?

If i remember correctly I believe HLG's FX hedging policy is 12 months out; those hedged USD rates above 70c must be starting to run dry and this will adversely impact the bottom line.

I have no doubt that HLG mgmt. will see this through in the long term. However, I don't anticipate H2 to be as pretty as their latest Glassons outfits; HLG is at risk of overall top line decline + declining in margins in times of "unprecedented uncertainty" in their own words.

I am very surprised HLG is close to $4 already, remembering it traded close to $3 a few years back when the future was a lot less foggy.

[Waltzing]

the re pricing of the stock market may be partially due to the FOMO combined with the vast amount of money supply that reserve banks are bringing to the market. the GFC was a slow moving train wreck but this time the US has increased money supply on a vast scale. The BOJ has gone QE infinity and DR Siegal has even mentioned the inflation word. But then many though the US dollar would get roasted last time and it didnt.

[winner69]

Cool hoodies at great price in today’s email

[nztx]

The top line may of course do OK considering the current conditions and their e-commerce efforts... but at what margins?

If i remember correctly I believe HLG's FX hedging policy is 12 months out; those hedged USD rates above 70c must be starting to run dry and this will adversely impact the bottom line.

I have no doubt that HLG mgmt. will see this through in the long term. However, I don't anticipate H2 to be as pretty as their latest Glassons outfits; HLG is at risk of overall top line decline + declining in margins in times of "unprecedented uncertainty" in their own words.

I am very surprised HLG is close to $4 already, remembering it traded close to $3 a few years back when the future was a lot less foggy.


I would be more worried about C-19 than movement in exchange rates which may or may not be to a degree recovered
With COGS at roughly 40% x T/over in this type of business - assuming 100% imported, which it wont be, what's
the max damage from a reasonable currency move .. eliminate on-recoveries, then consider they are seasonal.
Smart Operators - they will probably be constantly reassessing & repositioning
Winter 20 pricing was probably already looked at pre Covid-19. Summer 20/21 season is possibly in planning works now, if not
in the coming months

[allfromacell]

Glassons advertising from 1944, pretty cool eh.

https://m.imgur.com/DpKImnV

I wonder what the 2044 line will look like...

[bull....]

been a few on here saying online sales booming which is correct but according to the lastest figures it masks the truth that retail sales are very bad

Retail NZ says online retail sales are up 350 per cent under Alert Level 3, but overall sales are down by about 80 per cent on average

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12329305

[Balance]

been a few on here saying online sales booming which is correct but according to the lastest figures it masks the truth that retail sales are very bad

Retail NZ says online retail sales are up 350 per cent under Alert Level 3, but overall sales are down by about 80 per cent on average

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12329305

Oh wow!

Thanks for sharing the obvious - NOT.

[Filthy]

I guess if overall sales weren't down, the price would still be at 6 bucks eh

[bull....]

Oh wow!

Thanks for sharing the obvious - NOT.

money printing will never solve demand side erosion

[bull....]

I guess if overall sales weren't down, the price would still be at 6 bucks eh

nah $6 was bull market froth

[Balance]

money printing will never solve demand side erosion

Of course it will. You ain’t seen nothing yet from the Federal Reserve & Central Banks.

I have read darker and gloomier predictions than your feeble attempts during the GFC.

You need to try harder - come up with scarier scenarios.

Have my eye on a few shares which are steadfastly refusing to fall.

[Cyclical]

Interim report out:

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HLG/352597/321891.pdf

[peat]

Interim report out:

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HLG/352597/321891.pdf


Im sure this has been commented on before and dude is gone but for the record

11485

11486

The Brothers are definitely going to have to work it out.

11487

[Maverick]

Dividend probably suspended.
to quote the big man WB,
" buying a company just for the dividend is like marrying just for the sex... one must consider what's left when eventually the sex drys up"

and here we are.....the dividend I mean.

[winner69]

Im sure this has been commented on before and dude is gone but for the record

11485

11486

The Brothers are definitely going to have to work it out.

11487

Several times I've commented The Brothers are going backwards .....if that was what you were highlighting

About as bad as glassons/HB in NZ not growing as fast as the sector...lost market share?

I'll go and hide under a stone now,
.

[Balance]

Dividend probably suspended.
to quote the big man WB,
" buying a company just for the dividend is like marrying just for the sex... one must consider what's left when eventually the sex drys up"

and here we are.....the dividend I mean.

Temporary suspension of sex - oops, dividends. 😜

Will be resumed and when they do, will be even better than before. 💪

[Cyclical]

Temporary suspension of sex - oops, dividends. 

Will be resumed and when they do, will be even better than before. 

Hmm, in my experience, you need to trade 'em ;)

[nztx]

Temporary suspension of sex - oops, dividends. 😜

Will be resumed and when they do, will be even better than before. 💪

Agree.. :)

[BlackPeter]

Interim report out:

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HLG/352597/321891.pdf

Not a lot of pictures of smiling girls in this report (well, none ...) but on the other hand many serious looking guys. Funeral atmosphere - just a coincidence?

The impact of the new accounting standards makes a huge increase to their total liabilities (due to different treatment of leases). Liabilities to assets up from 28.3% to 56.4% - not anymore the company with hardly any liabilities, is it?

Otherwise - this report is a timely reminder of how irrelevant the numbers can be which investors typically use to make their decisions ... only 10 weeks old and giving no clue of how the future (or even the present) might look.

[Cyclical]

The impact of the new accounting standards makes a huge increase to their total liabilities (due to different treatment of leases). Liabilities to assets up from 28.3% to 56.4% - not anymore the company with hardly any liabilities, is it?

Yeah, it certainly doesn't look pretty on paper does it?


Otherwise - this report is a timely reminder of how irrelevant the numbers can be which investors typically use to make their decisions ... only 10 weeks old and giving no clue of how the future (or even the present) might look.

I see in KMD's market update this morning... "Group online sales were 2.5 to 3 times higher than last year" That's a nice warm and fuzzy distraction from the real issue.

Meanwhile this bit for the property stocks... "Negotiating with landlord partners to achieve a fair outcome that sees rental costs aligned to sales performance"

[macduffy]

Otherwise - this report is a timely reminder of how irrelevant the numbers can be which investors typically use to make their decisions ... only 10 weeks old and giving no clue of how the future (or even the present) might look.

So true, but can we expect any company to have a stab at future prospects just now?

[BlackPeter]

So true, but can we expect any company to have a stab at future prospects just now?

Probably not, though a bit more information about the sales performance and margins throughout this last quarter would have been welcome. Maybe they provide a separate update at some stage.

The future is clearly highly uncertain, i. e. I understand why they are reluctant to comment on their expectations.

What I don't understand is why the markets don't seem to price this uncertainty accordingly.

[macduffy]

What I don't understand is why the markets don't seem to price this uncertainty accordingly

It's probably a matter of trust in one of NZ's best managed and consistently performing retailers to continue to achieve in an uncertain market. May be misplaced, given the very uncertainty, but there's no denying that HLG has earnt its rating.

[Balance]

Probably not, though a bit more information about the sales performance and margins throughout this last quarter would have been welcome. Maybe they provide a separate update at some stage.

The future is clearly highly uncertain, i. e. I understand why they are reluctant to comment on their expectations.

What I don't understand is why the markets don't seem to price this uncertainty accordingly.


It's probably a matter of trust in one of NZ's best managed and consistently performing retailers to continue to achieve in an uncertain market. May be misplaced, given the very uncertainty, but there's no denying that HLG has earnt its rating.

Exactly, macduffy.

Under-promise & over-deliver - similar to Briscoes.

Market & shareholders will always give the company the benefit of the doubt - something that non-committed shareholders will never understand.

[Waltzing]

well would you investors here consider the stock to be fully prices at present. Any drop in earnings that puts its dividend under pressure and surely that must be a pull back in its price later this year unless the english university vacine is going to be released in the time frame of september . In 5 years where will the economy be? That's is the question and also for KMD.

[nztx]

Yeah, it certainly doesn't look pretty on paper does it?



I see in KMD's market update this morning... "Group online sales were 2.5 to 3 times higher than last year" That's a nice warm and fuzzy distraction from the real issue.

Meanwhile this bit for the property stocks... "Negotiating with landlord partners to achieve a fair outcome that sees rental costs aligned to sales performance"


What did they buy again ?

Surely their Overheads, Leases etc etc will be up by the same multiplier .. along with Losses whilst shut too


Give me the choice of either HLG or KMD any day -- I know which one I'd grab & which I would leave

[Waltzing]

nztx you would sell KMD into the good daily depth in KMD and buy HLG? Right now the market seems to want a lot of KMD. Short term you may be right but in a crisis time slows down when you in lock down and winter is upon us. Prehaps KMD will do another right issue next year as david kirk seems to have sold down his rights? But in 5 years time? Must buy one of those new woolen NZ made face masks to replace my boxes of crappy china made ones.. BUY NZ!!!

[macduffy]

well would you investors here consider the stock to be fully prices at present. Any drop in earnings that puts its dividend under pressure and surely that must be a pull back in its price later this year unless the english university vacine is going to be released in the time frame of september . In 5 years where will the economy be? That's is the question and also for KMD.

Who can tell in today's circumstances? I have the highest regard for HLG, the best of the listed retailers IMO, but I'm not buying anything just now.

What do you think?

[Beagle]

Hard to like at the current price given the challenges the company faces. I might reconsider if the shares more appropriately reflected my perception of the risk but that's a fairly long way south of the current share price. Good company, very well managed but most purchases are discretionary and can easily be deferred.

[tim23]

Hard to like at the current price given the challenges the company faces. I might reconsider if the shares more appropriately reflected my perception of the risk but that's a fairly long way south of the current share price. Good company, very well managed but most purchases are discretionary and can easily be deferred.

Not sure if all purchases are discretionary, plenty of essentials sold here, in fact they might pick up shoppers previously shopping at likes of Barkers who are being a bit more careful with their $ (I won't say hard earned because not all $ are hard earned!)

[nztx]

nztx you would sell KMD into the good daily depth in KMD and buy HLG? Right now the market seems to want a lot of KMD. Short term you may be right but in a crisis time slows down when you in lock down and winter is upon us. Prehaps KMD will do another right issue next year as david kirk seems to have sold down his rights? But in 5 years time? Must buy one of those new woolen NZ made face masks to replace my boxes of crappy china made ones.. BUY NZ!!!

Bit of a hard call isn't it - with upwards SP in recent days for both..
I know which I have more faith in & have highest regard for HLG, but only if to choose one to take / leave
Having averaged down HLG from loftier pre C-19 buy levels, still on potential Buying List
12-18 months out I dont think that strategy is wrong

However in today's crazy times, the same could be said of KMD
Maybe KMD represent very much a similar opportunity .. who knows ?

If Mr Market is pricing other retail majors in similar positions at current levels, then HLG looks reasonable in contrast

[nztx]

Mr/Mrs/Ms Market says $4 close today ... any guesses on next week ?

[clip]

Mr/Mrs/Ms Market says $4 close today ... any guesses on next week ?

Up 5%.. $4.20 at Friday close is my guess. No research, just a guess

[Waltzing]

Prehaps beagle can calculate the expected dividend for both HLG and KMD. Both have suspensed Dividends? KMD seems to have held .90 which would be represented by .04 dividend for next May? HLG expected dividend next ? and how do any new accounting rules apply to net profit before tax.

KMD seems now priced for a single dividend next May. But HLG seems to be priced for a big return to full dividends by april? $4 implies a 20 cent dividend already priced in for next April...

Im stunned by how quickly these stocks have repriced.

I was not expecting dividends to return to these levels by next march.

Since im both invested in several portfolios and trading in others. The longer this goes on in fact the more money can be made from trading in bulk buys.

But the market has looked through this and these bulk trades may not provide the source of profits they did during the GFC which lasted a good 5 years.

Can the injection of QE really mend the GDP gap and earning for these stocks inside 12 months?

Can beagle please calculate share prices for april 2022?

It appears that investors are buying now for 2022.

HLG is then well on its way to over $5 and KMD to $1.60 and beyond.

[Drew95]

I just tried out Hallenstein's online shopping for the first time. I have got to say it exceeded my expectations by quite a large margin. It was a very user friendly, seamless and painless experience. One that I will definitely use again (assuming the items ordered meet expectations). Why would I drive down to a mall when I can shop like this? C-19 will definitely be driving more and more people to do all things digitally, whether that is working from home (which I do, already globally - implications = less office space needed), shopping from home (can't remember the last time I went into a non-food shop) etc.

Just BTW I work for a global cloud business management solutions app - we were expecting our subscription cancellations to skyrocket, and sales to plummet. Cancellations did increase, but so did sales, with a net decrease on the same month (April) last year of only 1%. The world moves on, just on a slightly different trajectory. There will be long term winners and losers.

[winner69]

I just tried out Hallenstein's online shopping for the first time. I have got to say it exceeded my expectations by quite a large margin. It was a very user friendly, seamless and painless experience. One that I will definitely use again (assuming the items ordered meet expectations). Why would I drive down to a mall when I can shop like this? C-19 will definitely be driving more and more people to do all things digitally, whether that is working from home (which I do, already globally - implications = less office space needed), shopping from home (can't remember the last time I went into a non-food shop) etc.

Just BTW I work for a global cloud business management solutions app - we were expecting our subscription cancellations to skyrocket, and sales to plummet. Cancellations did increase, but so did sales, with a net decrease on the same month (April) last year of only 1%. The world moves on, just on a slightly different trajectory. There will be long term winners and losers.

Yep Hallensteins online pretty slick and their delivery times been fantastic

Got some gear from Wild South the other day ...their online pretty good and goods on way but have to get across Cook St yet.

[Beagle]

Prehaps beagle can calculate the expected dividend for both HLG and KMD. .

Sorry, I am flying just as blind as everyone else but I do think the current share price for both is pricing in a quicker recovery for the N.Z. and Australian economies than I am expecting. KMD in particular sell a lot of high value discretionary items and I expect that's the sort of purchase that's very easily deferred. I am extremely cautious towards these two.

[dreamcatcher]

Last week read Australia has suffered a 46% decline in clothing sales.......

Was expecting to see a 3 in SP before a 4 but punters are pumping here so good luck to holders.

Never Held

[winner69]

NZ Card Spend for April

.

Large declines were seen in all retail categories. The largest drop was in the hospitality sector with sales down 93%. Spending on durable items was down 72%, and spending on apparel was down 83%.

That 83% is a big number

[Mya]

NZ Card Spend for April

.

Large declines were seen in all retail categories. The largest drop was in the hospitality sector with sales down 93%. Spending on durable items was down 72%, and spending on apparel was down 83%.

That 83% is a big number

Apparel stores were shut, how could they have sold anything? The number is meaningless.

[winner69]

That card spend was seasonally adjusted number ...actuals for apparel was 89% down on April last year - from $332m to $36m

So down nearly $300m - HLG stores usually about 5% of this sector so sales down $15m for month ....at least - about $10m gross margin hit to bottom line ..... while at the same time overheads had to be paid.

And that’s just NZ

[macduffy]

Apparel stores were shut, how could they have sold anything? The number is meaningless.

Those that did sell a bit were those with a good e-commerce offering. HLG is one such.

[winner69]

Apparel stores were shut, how could they have sold anything? The number is meaningless.

...but the $10m loss of margin is not meaningless

Question then ....will they recover all of that in the next few months?

[James108]

I think the current market price reflects an expectation that hlg makes a loss this year and returns to normal profitably over 2 years. That might be slightly optimistic, current price is upper bound of fair value in my opinion.

[Balance]

I think the current market price reflects an expectation that hlg makes a loss this year and returns to normal profitably over 2 years. That might be slightly optimistic, current price is upper bound of fair value in my opinion.

Yup.

And the stockmarket prices in that strong possibility - based upon the quality management and track record of companies like HLG.

Market looks ahead - not behind.

[Beagle]

That card spend was seasonally adjusted number ...actuals for apparel was 89% down on April last year - from $332m to $36m

So down nearly $300m - HLG stores usually about 5% of this sector so sales down $15m for month ....at least - about $10m gross margin hit to bottom line ..... while at the same time overheads had to be paid.

And that’s just NZ

Remember when we both bought into this at the bottom of the last cycle in August 2016 at $2.70? Profit we were looking for in regard to FY17 was $20m which gave eps of 33.5 cps (PE of just 8) and we were drawn by the projected 15% gross dividend yield.

How the market thinks its now worth $4.15 with the currency about 10 cents south of where it was in 2016 and all the ongoing uncertainty of how this will recover from Covid 19 and over how many years is a mystery to me. Even if this was presently $2.70 I would suggest our original purchase on those metrics contained far less risk.

I think the point is this only looks cheap to those who are referencing a $6 price viewpoint. If one changes their frame of reference this looks super expensive for the risks involved.

Maybe they get back to earning $20m in FY22, maybe its FY23 but in the meantime ? How many years before we see profit back at where it was in FY19 ?

[tim23]

Remember when we both bought into this at the bottom of the last cycle in August 2016 at $2.70? Profit we were looking for in regard to FY17 was $20m which gave eps of 33.5 cps (PE of just 8) and we were drawn by the projected 15% gross dividend yield.

How the market thinks its now worth $4.15 with the currency about 10 cents south of where it was in 2016 and all the ongoing uncertainty of how this will recover from Covid 19 and over how many years is a mystery to me. Even if this was presently $2.70 I would suggest our original purchase on those metrics contained far less risk.

I think the point is this only looks cheap to those who are referencing a $6 price viewpoint. If one changes their frame of reference this looks super expensive for the risks involved.

Maybe they get back to earning $20m in FY22, maybe its FY23 but in the meantime ? How many years before we see profit back at where it was in FY19 ?

Don't forget they have saved on not paying dividend which would have been due this month.

[Snow Leopard]

The current market price is based on the knowledge that when HLG opens their doors again the queues will be really long.

"This the queue for Hallensteins?"
"Yep"
"Queens St?"
"Auckland? Nah! This is for Queensgate, in Wellington mate"

[clearasmud]

Without Glassons Hallensteins would be a weak business.

[clearasmud]

But as it is its a beautiful business with real growth potential.

[clearasmud]

But their online business is key for longterm success.
How are they doing.?

[peat]

But their online business is key for longterm success.
How are they doing.?

From the recent interim report



Investment in this area has seen digital sales increase to over 15% of total Group sales for the six month period



From 4 April 2020 New Zealand web stores for both brands were opened to sell essential product and from 28 April 2020 when the alert level was changed to 3, all product is now available for contactless delivery from our web stores.


So its not inconceivable that more than 15%
(double say 30%?)
of revenue could be maintained during the level 3 lockdown and with things back to normal in a couple of days IF sales aren't impacted by anything more than closure - it may not be too bad. But of course that is an unlikely assumption, peoples buying power has been reduced , but I wonder if, more importantly, their continuing desire to consume has been questioned.

Probably not though huh? So back to normal in a jiffy? (Sounding like w69 here)

[clearasmud]

Can't imagine their main clientele (young ladies) not wanting to buy.
However there will be a lot of jobs gone in travel/entertainment, training etc.

[Cyclical]

...I wonder if, more importantly, their continuing desire to consume has been questioned.

Probably not though huh? So back to normal in a jiffy? (Sounding like w69 here)



LOL I actually had to check the username before I read the bit in brackets.

Personally I have a reduced desire to spend, after seeing how little is on the credit card for the last month or so (possibly in part due to a desire to free up as much powder as possible for stock bargains mind). How long that sentiment lasts though is the question.

[44wishlists]

In short term I think we shall see a "revenge buying" happening in the malls. With the govt wage subsidies, they still getting income, while got nowhere to spend in the past 8 weeks. With the reopening of the stores and malls, sure this weekend will gone be a mid-year Christmas.

Then we also have to think about the spending habit of young ones these days. Who actually still save money? Probably only saving the will have is in the KiwiSaver, when they are "focused" to save. Everywhere is promoting the concept of living on credit. Think of the exponential growth of AfterPay in recent years (or months).

HLG target customers way of shopping has already been shifted to online shopping prior to the Wuhan virus, and now this habit has further been deepen. Future growth of the group will be heavily looking towards online and super fast fashion (clothes that last less than one season.) Reducing the footprint of floor areas, reducing front staffs, then recycling the funds to online promotion, e-commerce stores, fulfil. Think of online shopping platforms, such as Farfetch (luxury brands), as well as Zara, Uniqlo. Online is the way to grow. Brick and mortar stores will be a place for experience, then actually generating sales. That's my 5cents opinion. Thank you.

[winner69]

The male models in Hallensteins emails never seem to be very happy about life

[mikeybycrikey]

Can't imagine their main clientele (young ladies) not wanting to buy.
However there will be a lot of jobs gone in travel/entertainment, training etc.

That assumes that their main clientele still have jobs. I expect that young people are more likely to lose their jobs, especially those working in retail, hospitality and tourism. Could be quite a bit less money sloshing around waiting to be spent.

[peat]

The male models in Hallensteins emails never seem to be very happy about life

too cool for school

I must say the lady on the last page has a great smile though.

[tzbang]

That assumes that their main clientele still have jobs. I expect that young people are more likely to lose their jobs, especially those working in retail, hospitality and tourism. Could be quite a bit less money sloshing around waiting to be spent.

There's some focus on the negative environment of lost jobs, reduced income, purse tightening, anxiety around going to malls etc.
But OTOH there are actually a lot of people who've continued to get paid though the lockdown and yet unable to spend. Many of my friends claim to have fat wallets from being stuck at home. Some are actually quite desperate to go buy new clothes, after 4 weeks of binging Netflix in their PJ's — they no longer fit last winters jeans! My wife has some younger friends too (mid-20s) and they often seem to have 'mystery-money' when it comes to needing new clothes.. seeking a new job? New clothes. Working hard? New clothes. Winter? New clothes. Got fat? New clothes. Got skinny... you get the idea.

[bull....]

Less than two months into what is likely to be many years of economic hardship, unemployment among the young is soaring. Benefit data from the Ministry of Social Development show that the number of 18-19 year olds claiming a jobseeker-workready benefit shot up 46.1 per cent for 18-19 year olds, 61.6 per cent for 20-24 year olds, and 58.2 per cent for 25-29 year olds between the end of February and April.
There are now 53,000 New Zealanders between the ages of 18 and 30 on jobseeker, almost more than the number of claimants from all other age groups combined. That figure will surely increase when the wage subsidy begins to expire for businesses in coming weeks.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/300010355/a-budget-with-labours-future-on-the-line

has to affect sales surely

[Balance]

There's some focus on the negative environment of lost jobs, reduced income, purse tightening, anxiety around going to malls etc.
But OTOH there are actually a lot of people who've continued to get paid though the lockdown and yet unable to spend. Many of my friends claim to have fat wallets from being stuck at home. Some are actually quite desperate to go buy new clothes, after 4 weeks of binging Netflix in their PJ's — they no longer fit last winters jeans! My wife has some younger friends too (mid-20s) and they often seem to have 'mystery-money' when it comes to needing new clothes.. seeking a new job? New clothes. Working hard? New clothes. Winter? New clothes. Got fat? New clothes. Got skinny... you get the idea.

That’s what people forget - 85% of the population will still be employed and earning money. 👍

[trader_jackson]

At least they didn't pay it out in dividends...
Banks might not like them too much, not because its personal, but because its retail... Smith City has that feel good, been around 100 years+ feel and yet don't seem to be getting alot of love from their bank.

No worries, this time (or company) is different.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/353056
Got a few million less in the bank now winner (from a post on 30th March), Smith City close to hitting the wall, and it might be prudent for HLG to pay no dividend for this year, maybe even a few years... a big change from the previous decades when it was always a big dividend payer.

[Balance]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/353056

The doomsday merchants were expecting disaster.

Guess they will have to shift their doom predictions elsewhere.

[bull....]

yep we were right
lower sales too come and no dividends likely this year maybe even next. think they are a bit too positive on sales rebound though

[850man]

yep we were right
lower sales too come and no dividends likely this year maybe even next. think they are a bit too positive on sales rebound though
KMD published a similar statement and look what happened to their SP! Admittedly KMD didn't mention lower revenues during lock down and left that to our imaginations.

[JeremyALD]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/353056

The doomsday merchants were expecting disaster.

Guess they will have to shift their doom predictions elsewhere.

Thats a very impressive result. Well done HLG

[Balance]

KMD published a similar statement and look what happened to their SP! Admittedly KMD didn't mention lower revenues during lock down and left that to our imaginations.

Quality - that’s what the doomsday merchants cannot understand. Too used to the $2 shop rubbish that they frequent all the time.

[bull....]

KMD published a similar statement and look what happened to their SP! Admittedly KMD didn't mention lower revenues during lock down and left that to our imaginations.

i would suggest the current share price action in a lot of stocks is more liquidity driven rather than fundamentally driven at the moment

[winner69]

Thats a very impressive result. Well done HLG

Yes very good result ...seems to imply a decent full year profit

James will pumping up his DCF model now ...his base case had eps at minus 18 cents

Share price could even go over $6 soon on this announcement

[winner69]

H1 NPAT was about $15m

Down $2.8m since and will be profitable from now to end of year

So FY could get close to $20m

Just as well for those wage subsidies here and in OZ

[Balance]

Thats a very impressive result. Well done HLG

Sp up on the news.

Their online platform must be really good to maintain the level of sales they generated during the lockdown!

[James108]

Good announcement from HLG, certainly supports recent increase in SP, just regret not buying more when it was screaming value at me. Was too timid.

[Balance]

Good announcement from HLG, certainly supports recent increase in SP, just regret not buying more when it was screaming value at me. Was too timid.

At least you have some, compared to me (admirer of the company but no shares) and the posters here who are too busy preaching doom and gloom.

[winner69]

Sp up on the news.

Their online platform must be really good to maintain the level of sales they generated during the lockdown!

Should try it sometime mate ...even old buggers can get gear from them

Deliveries usually very good but probably couriers companies stuffing that record up for them

Must confess went to Wild South the other day.

[Beagle]

Agree a good result in the circumstances (albeit with substantial assistance from Govt's on both sides of the Tasman).
Going forward we will have massive unemployment, much higher minimum wages for staff, a significantly lower currency than average which will materially affect margins, stock that's left over from last season and a the risk of rising back to level 3 lockdown. On top of that a percentage of the public won't feel safe going back to malls for quite some time. On top of that, apparel purchases can easily be deferred.

I think there's sound reasons to remain very cautious with this one.
Disc: No position, and not intending to take one anytime soon.

[winner69]

Lockdown walks seen heaps of new faces out walking and enjoying the fresh air

And it seems many guys got the gear out they hadn’t worn for years and boy was there some sights

Now back to normality I take it that these walks now off the agenda and those clothes put away again

But maybe somebody will tell them to go the Hallensteins and buy a decent pair of shorts and a decent shirt.

[Balance]

Agree a good result in the circumstances (albeit with substantial assistance from Govt's on both sides of the Tasman).
Going forward we will have massive unemployment, much higher minimum wages for staff, a significantly lower currency than average which will materially affect margins, stock that's left over from last season and a the risk of rising back to level 3 lockdown. On top of that a percentage of the public won't feel safe going back to malls for quite some time. On top of that, apparel purchases can easily be deferred.

I think there's sound reasons to remain very cautious with this one.
Disc: No position, and not intending to take one anytime soon.

I don't have a position in the stock either, Beagle.

But having met HLG's management and understand their strategy (basically, up to date fashion at affordable prices), I find it grating to read all the doom and gloom from those who have no idea whatsoever about HLG's strategy and about how good the management really is.

[winner69]

Corporate welfare is good

Well done Grant

[Beagle]

I don't have a position in the stock either, Beagle.

But having met HLG's management and understand their strategy (basically, up to date fashion at affordable prices), I find it grating to read all the doom and gloom from those who have no idea whatsoever about HLG's strategy and about how good the management really is.

I agree management are very good. No doubt about that whatsoever but they are not magicians.

[Waltzing]

Kathmandu today appeared to have more customers in the center place hamilton store than HLG. No woolen face masks yet for fashionable PPE. No one in the waikato seems to want to wear a mask much...

[Beagle]

Bought in in the gloom. Strong companies can get stronger in tough conditions when weaker competitors go by the wayside.

I was getting pretty interested when it got down to $1.85. Was hoping for $1.50. Time will tell how they weather this but I wouldn't touch it at anything like the current price.

[dreamcatcher]

Many years in clothing manufacturing tells me if stock does not start moving quickly then massive non-profitable sales will begin to clear stock. Reports of China cutting wages by 10% - 50% may be the savoir of the clothing industry but misery for workers.

Comments from DOW overnight

"Wall Street closed in the green in a volatile session on Friday, as oil prices (+7%) extended gains to link their third weekly rise and offset a dismal US retail sales report. On Friday, a US Census Bureau report showed retail sales plunged by a record 16.4% in April (vs consensus of 12.3%), with clothing falling 78.8% and electronics 60.6%. On the policy side, the US House aims to pass a $3 trillion coronavirus relief package across four bills later today despite opposition from Senate Republicans and the White House."

[Waltzing]

Center place mall on friday was not empty, people were out and about but i certainly cant see HLG staying at current prices. Even KMD has pulled back. DISC: bought KMD at 72 sold at 1.10. KMD is back to post float prices and may trade in a range. July to late october will be interesting. Post GFC was a trading environment and i see this also as a 2 year trading phase especially if it takes time to manfacture a vacine. Remeber Inida does most manufacturing from product shipped from china for most generic drugs.. Traffic on the motor wasy south from hamilton started following in large numbers friday evening. It will be interesting to check the population moments this coming weekend.

[bull....]

price come off a bit lately probably due to the realisation and facts going by paymark talk. sales were not as good as expected for apparel when we went to level 2 .

would be no surprise apparel suffers during downturns , also car sales . a phonomenon in in countries

[kiwidollabill]

Australia retail down by 18%

https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs%40.nsf/mediareleasesbyCatalogue/2927B2B34EA54818CA25852E0079A627?OpenDocument

[Cyclical]

Australia retail down by 18%

https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs%40.nsf/mediareleasesbyCatalogue/2927B2B34EA54818CA25852E0079A627?OpenDocument

From the article:

"Turnover was down 9.4 per cent when compared to April 2019."

That doesn't sound too bad at all. Once the recession and those job losses start kicking in, it will likely be a different story.

One would assume NZ's figures will be a lot uglier due to the imposed lockdown.

[winner69]

Australia retail down by 18%

https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs%40.nsf/mediareleasesbyCatalogue/2927B2B34EA54818CA25852E0079A627?OpenDocument

It also says ....Turnover in clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing, and cafes, restaurants and takeaways is around half the level of April 2019.

[Beagle]

Broken down through 30 day MA now. Looks like from a TA perspective the bounce may have been overdone and may be over. Economic reality to bite as lots of unemployed people only buy consumers staples and get their clothes from somewhere cheaper like Kmart ?

[Cyclical]

Broken down through 30 day MA now. Looks like from a TA perspective the bounce may have been overdone and may be over. Economic reality to bite as lots of unemployed people only buy consumers staples and get their clothes from somewhere cheaper like Kmart ?

Where do you think it will settle? There seem to be a few stocks that have just started to realign themselves with economic reality. Thinking ZEL, AIA, ANZ and this one to name a few. Is it a sign that the new "retail investors" are back in the office with work to do, or they've run out of powder, or some profit taking by the smart money? Or are people just getting real and we're seeing the beginnings of a correction back to an L shaped recovery?

[Beagle]

Where do you think it will settle? There seem to be a few stocks that have just started to realign themselves with economic reality. Thinking ZEL, AIA, ANZ and this one to name a few. Is it a sign that the new "retail investors" are back in the office with work to do, or they've run out of powder, or some profit taking by the smart money? Or are people just getting real and we're seeing the beginnings of a correction back to an L shaped recovery?

Crikey there's some difficult questions in there. I think high end retail will really struggle, KMD is a very bad bet in my opinion. Does anyone really need a $400 jacket or other name brand item for the foreseeable future ? People will trade down in brands, google mountain warehouse. On the other hand basics and necessities will do just fine WHS should be perfectly okay.

Glassons Australia were doing really well before the lockdown and also Glassons N.Z. and Hallensteins were doing okay. This mid priced section of the apparel market is very difficult to read. Management have a very good reputation and an investment on the blind into HLG at this point without knowing the short term impact of Covid 19 is really a punt on management's ability to trade their way through this and get back to an acceptable level of profitability over time.

I like the company, the management and the mid priced position it occupies in the apparel sector. Their accounts are clean and easy to understand, there's no debt and no funny business with intangible assets or any other nonsense.

To value this however is incredibly hard. Some serious guesswork is involved. My sense is profitability will not recover to anywhere near previous level's until there's a vaccine and people feel really comfortable going to the mall again. On the other hand their online offer is very good but there remains in my mind fundamental uncertainty over how demand will shape up going forward.

There are clear demand, currency and cost headwinds, (significant increase in minimum wage from 1 April 2020 and again on 1 April 2021).
I got really interested when it broke back down under $2 in late March, (having sold out in the late $5's a little while earlier). I was too greedy and was looking for $1.50 so missed that opportunity.

Back in August 2016 there was fundamental uncertainty with a number of large overseas chains looking to open stores here. The shares were $2.70 then, the dividend yield was 15% gross inclusive of imputation credits and the forward PE was less than 10. That was great buying and I did in decent volume.

We're not there yet. I see more risk at present than what existed in late 2016, considerably more. I think the best thing is to simply let this one settle down and have a look again when there's a clear and sustained new uptrend. I'll use a break up through the 100 day MA as my main TA indicator. I think in the meantime reality bites and the recent jump up from a low of $1.80 in late March has been overdone.

Now we're well on the way to getting on top of this virus in N.Z. I'd be interested again in the mid - late $2 range and might take a punt there even without TA indicators around there as I like the management. If it doesn't get down there I will use the 100 day TA signal to tell me when to get back in.
My 2 cents worth.

[BlackPeter]

Where do you think it will settle? There seem to be a few stocks that have just started to realign themselves with economic reality. Thinking ZEL, AIA, ANZ and this one to name a few. Is it a sign that the new "retail investors" are back in the office with work to do, or they've run out of powder, or some profit taking by the smart money? Or are people just getting real and we're seeing the beginnings of a correction back to an L shaped recovery?

Saw recently a worthwhile presentation from Fisher funds. Here is a summary: https://fisherfunds.co.nz/newsroom/market-commentary/reality-and-recovery

They defined the phases of a crisis as: Sell-Off, Stability, Reality and Recovery.

We did Sell-off and Stability for this crisis. Reality is next. I'd expect brutal SP reductions before we see the fourth phase.

[Cyclical]

Crikey there's some difficult questions in there. I think high end retail will really struggle, KMD is a very bad bet in my opinion. Does anyone really need a $400 jacket or other name brand item for the foreseeable future ? People will trade down in brands, google mountain warehouse. On the other hand basics and necessities will do just fine WHS should be perfectly okay.

Glassons Australia were doing really well before the lockdown and also Glassons N.Z. and Hallensteins were doing okay. This mid priced section of the apparel market is very difficult to read. Management have a very good reputation and an investment on the blind into HLG at this point without knowing the short term impact of Covid 19 is really a punt on management's ability to trade their way through this and get back to an acceptable level of profitability over time.

I like the company, the management and the mid priced position it occupies in the apparel sector. Their accounts are clean and easy to understand, there's no debt and no funny business with intangible assets or any other nonsense.

To value this however is incredibly hard. Some serious guesswork is involved. My sense is profitability will not recover to anywhere near previous level's until there's a vaccine and people feel really comfortable going to the mall again. On the other hand their online offer is very good but there remains in my mind fundamental uncertainty over how demand will shape up going forward.

There are clear demand, currency and cost headwinds, (significant increase in minimum wage from 1 April 2020 and again on 1 April 2021).
I got really interested when it broke back down under $2 in late March, (having sold out in the late $5's a little while earlier). I was too greedy and was looking for $1.50 so missed that opportunity.

Back in August 2016 there was fundamental uncertainty with a number of large overseas chains looking to open stores here. The shares were $2.70 then, the dividend yield was 15% gross inclusive of imputation credits and the forward PE was less than 10. That was great buying and I did in decent volume.

We're not there yet. I see more risk at present than what existed in late 2016, considerably more. I think the best thing is to simply let this one settle down and have a look again when there's a clear and sustained new uptrend. I'll use a break up through the 100 day MA as my main TA indicator. I think in the meantime reality bites and the recent jump up from a low of $1.80 in late March has been overdone.

Now we're well on the way to getting on top of this virus in N.Z. I'd be interested again in the mid - late $2 range and might take a punt there even without TA indicators around there as I like the management. If it doesn't get down there I will use the 100 day TA signal to tell me when to get back in.
My 2 cents worth.

Thanks for the solid reply, Beagle :)

Well, I dipped my toe in the water again yesterday, having sold out on the 25th of March at $2.75...thought I was doing ok at time given it was 1.80 2 days beforehand, and expected it would track back towards 2 bucks again, but that didn't happen of course. Hindsight's a wonderful thing.

I know it's a risk getting back in at these levels, but it's 10 or so percent off the recent high, and their last update was much better than I anticipated. Will DCA if they get down towards $3.30 or less. Surely we won't see them sub 3 bucks again... Surely I'm not going to get this one wrong twice haha.

[James108]

A few weeks ago I said based on a simple DCF valuation I thought fair value was around $3.5, following the recent positive update I think fair value is probably around $3.70. I also think there is a high likelihood I am wrong in the order of +- 25%, with less (but not negligible) chance I am wrong by a greater amount.

What does that above show?
1. That most of the value in the business is due to mid and long term cash flows, not short term performance.
2. If the SP falls to below $2.80 I would be looking to buy with increasing confidence.

A few other things, we now have more confidence HLG will not need to raise capital, coming out the other side HLG may have a fair bit of cash due to the cancellation of the recent dividend.

[Beagle]

Agree James but DCF valuations are only as good as the multiple assumptions (guess's ?) that underpin them. Huge amount of guesswork involved here, nothing is clear. The below $2.80 area is really where I would need to see this to have sufficient confidence that there is sufficient buffer for the risks involved.
In the meantime I am with BlackPeter that reality will probably bite really hard. Best wishes to holders.

[winner69]

Agree James but DCF valuations are only as good as the multiple assumptions (guess's ?) that underpin them. Huge amount of guesswork involved here, nothing is clear. The below $2.80 area is really where I would need to see this to have sufficient confidence that there is sufficient buffer for the risks involved.
In the meantime I am with BlackPeter that reality will probably bite really hard. Best wishes to holders.

Lockdown over ...no need to distance yourself from reality now,

[Cyclical]

A few weeks ago I said based on a simple DCF valuation I thought fair value was around $3.5, following the recent positive update I think fair value is probably around $3.70. I also think there is a high likelihood I am wrong in the order of +- 25%, with less (but not negligible) chance I am wrong by a greater amount.

Yeah, I know, James, and I think I put it to you at the time that I thought it was worth about $2.30. You had the last laugh. I certainly don't want to pay $4+ at the moment, so picked up a small holding yesterday at $3.75, will park them long term if I have to and DCA if the opportunity arises. Confidence inspiring update last week and I'd always intended to have them in the long term portfolio. I expect as the value of our dollars gets watered down and interest rates remain minuscule, when these types of companies get back to paying good divvies, they'll be in greater demand than ever before.

[Beagle]

Lockdown over ...no need to distance yourself from reality now,

I wonder how quiet it is in their Queenstown stores ? Reality tends to bite over a period of time in my opinion. Interesting that they continued to pay dividends right through the GFC. They must think this time is worse. On 26 February 2009 in the depths of the GFC they were $2.13 but this is obviously worse. Hmmm

[macduffy]

I wonder how quiet it is in their Queenstown stores ? Reality tends to bite over a period of time in my opinion. Interesting that they continued to pay dividends right through the GFC. They must think this time is worse. On 26 February 2009 in the depths of the GFC they were $2.13 but this is obviously worse. Hmmm

Probably their quietest store in NZ? But hardly typical. I'd be more interested in how the Auckland, Wgtn, ChCh shops are faring. Not a time to buy HLG in my opinion - but they're well managed survivors and their time will come again.

[Beagle]

Probably their quietest store in NZ? But hardly typical. I'd be more interested in how the Auckland, Wgtn, ChCh shops are faring. Not a time to buy HLG in my opinion - but they're well managed survivors and their time will come again.

Probably. Interesting survey conducted by CNBC in the US came out overnight, sorry haven't got a link. Safe spending v at risk spending.
What are you most likely to reduce spending on if your income falls ?
#1. Dining out and entertaining, (already happening in a widespread way)
#2. Apparel and footwear, (next shoe to drop ?, pardon the pun)
#3 Travel and leisure. (obviously this has fallen off the edge of a cliff at present)

Obviously the travel and leisure market is in the toilet as is the hospitality industry but who would have guessed that apparel and footwear would be right up there in the same league in terms of what people will spend less on if they need to tighten their belt ?

Unsurprisingly spending on pets was well and truly down towards the bottom of the list.
Guess what was right at the bottom of the list ? Broadband connectivity.

[macduffy]

Guess what was right at the bottom of the list ? Broadband connectivity.

Yes, it's become almost as necessary as food and shelter to a lot of people - such as us!

[winner69]

HLG (and other online retailers) must be getting really pissed off with courier performance of late

Makes you think twice about buying on line ....and then often whatever you were going to buy you will decide you don’t really need it if you have to go to a store

[Jay]

Not sure why they are so far behind, I suppose they have all other mail as well. I have something (small enough I would imagine the normal posties to deliver) I bought from Ebay in Aus, to discover it comes from China, not received yet and don't know if it is one of these that NZ Post has been sitting on for the past 4-5 weeks as low priority - how they work that out I don't know. Bought a replacement now in any event for about twice the price from trade Me here and got in a couple of days - sorry slightly off topic
Disc- Holding a few HLG - have been for sometime for my children

[Pipi]

HLG (and other online retailers) must be getting really pissed off with courier performance of late

Makes you think twice about buying on line ....and then often whatever you were going to buy you will decide you don’t really need it if you have to go to a store

I'm a business that uses Courier Post, it has been a nightmare. Weeks of delays, some parcels just get stuck in the system and are difficult to fill. Most customers are really good, some are just so rude about it.

[winner69]

I'm a business that uses Courier Post, it has been a nightmare. Weeks of delays, some parcels just get stuck in the system and are difficult to fill. Most customers are really good, some are just so rude about it.


Do you really blame them for getting slightly testy about it

Blaming couriers not good for customer experience

[Beagle]

I'm a business that uses Courier Post, it has been a nightmare. Weeks of delays, some parcels just get stuck in the system and are difficult to fill. Most customers are really good, some are just so rude about it.

I ordered some badly needed stationary for work during the lockdown 4. Three items from Warehouse stationary all ordered at the same time. They came individually, the first after 1 week, the second after 10 days and the third item not for nearly 3 weeks. Its just an absurd situation.

I would say now the system is basically broken and if you need something within 3 weeks its best to go to the store and get it yourself. This sort of situation cannot be helpful to HLG and others.

[winner69]

I ordered some badly needed stationary for work during the lockdown 4. Three items from Warehouse stationary all ordered at the same time. They came individually, the first after 1 week, the second after 10 days and the third item not for nearly 3 weeks. Its just an absurd situation.

I would say now the system is basically broken and if you need something within 3 weeks its best to go to the store and get it yourself. This sort of situation cannot be helpful to HLG and others.

Not helpful at all

Hard to keep your customers happy if your delivery is ****e ....no matter how good your online offer is.

[LAC]

Do you really blame them for getting slightly testy about it

Blaming couriers not good for customer experience

Pretty unfair statement there. I am in the same position. I have tried the other operators and I have always opted for Courier post, even though more costly they very rarely "lose" parcels like Fastways do. However I have had about 50+ parcels off the 400 odd that was sent just sitting on their system as "in depot". Caught up with a friend who works as a PM there and says they have been renting out warehouses to hold parcels while they tray and get through the backlog. They are sending Auckland parcels to Wellington to be sorted and get sent back here. It is insane. But as a customer using their service, how do you expect us to know after the fact?? My customer can see the tracking number sent with 24hrs of their purchase but then on the Courier system for 3 weeks with no movement. If the courier isnt to blame, who is???

[Pipi]

Pretty unfair statement there. I am in the same position. I have tried the other operators and I have always opted for Courier post, even though more costly they very rarely "lose" parcels like Fastways do. However I have had about 50+ parcels off the 400 odd that was sent just sitting on their system as "in depot". Caught up with a friend who works as a PM there and says they have been renting out warehouses to hold parcels while they tray and get through the backlog. They are sending Auckland parcels to Wellington to be sorted and get sent back here. It is insane. But as a customer using their service, how do you expect us to know after the fact?? My customer can see the tracking number sent with 24hrs of their purchase but then on the Courier system for 3 weeks with no movement. If the courier isnt to blame, who is???

Thanks for that LAC, totally agree. Once it leaves your premises and is in the couriers hands, there is little you can do about it. Courier Post would not even take your call to help further unless you parcel was at least 6 working days over due. I also heard that they quite often get 9 big bins behind at xmas and over lock down they were back logged 36. So they couldn't deal with the volume. I don't think it was their fault either, they were not to predict this was going to happen. It was just an unfortunate side effect of the lockdown. And like I said most customers were really good about it. Things are getting better now and parcels are getting delivered quicker.

[winner69]

Put it this way

I bought something online from Hallensteins. Took 16 days to get here

My experience with dealing with Hallensteins this time not a good one. Hallensteins 'goodwill' / reputation negatively affected. My expectations (to some extent raised by their marketing) were not met.

Mind you it's taken 21 days and still waiting for goods from Wild South ...again its Wild South's 'goodwill' / reputation that's suffering

The customer is always right ...they have a choice and can vote with their feet or wallet

[Beagle]

Put it this way

I bought something online from Hallensteins. Took 16 days to get here

My experience with dealing with Hallensteins this time not a good one. Hallensteins 'goodwill' / reputation negatively affected

Mind you it's taken 21 days and still waiting for goods from Wild South ...again its Wild South's 'goodwill' / reputation that's suffering

The customer is always right ...they have a choice and can vote with their feet or wallet

This sort of nonsense does put you off buying online, no question about that. I ordered some vitamin supplements from Chemist warehouse last Friday in a sale to restock my medical cabinet. Before doing so I checked I had at least a full months supply of the required supplements already on hand. That's what it has come too, at least as far as I am concerned.

[Pipi]

Put it this way

I bought something online from Hallensteins. Took 16 days to get here

My experience with dealing with Hallensteins this time not a good one. Hallensteins 'goodwill' / reputation negatively affected. My expectations (to some extent raised by their marketing) were not met.

Mind you it's taken 21 days and still waiting for goods from Wild South ...again its Wild South's 'goodwill' / reputation that's suffering

The customer is always right ...they have a choice and can vote with their feet or wallet

I never said the customers was wrong, I was just tell my experience of it all. On a personal level I purchased stuff on line during lock down also, took 4 weeks to get to us, I new exactly why. I don't blame the company or courier, I think everyone was trying their best.
A bit of empathy and patience goes a long way. Definitely has not put me off purchasing off them again.

[waterboy]

Its all academic now as the couriers will catch up on the backlog and now that we don't have to buy online the majority of people will go back to shopping normally. That is to say there will be an increase in online orders from the time before COVID but it will be manageable for the couriers I suspect.

[mikeybycrikey]

Put it this way

I bought something online from Hallensteins. Took 16 days to get here

Given the issues with couriers why has a company like Hallensteins not got their local stores to do the deliveries. With a nationwide store network, they probably have stores within a 20 minute drive of most customers.

It would give customers a more reliable service and a point of difference while customers numbers are low and couriers are snowed under.

I’m sure there are real problems in rolling out a service like this quickly because otherwise it would be more common, but given clothing is small, lightweight and durable it should be easier for Hallensteins than other places.

[thedrunkfish]

Put it this way

I bought something online from Hallensteins. Took 16 days to get here

My experience with dealing with Hallensteins this time not a good one. Hallensteins 'goodwill' / reputation negatively affected. My expectations (to some extent raised by their marketing) were not met.

Mind you it's taken 21 days and still waiting for goods from Wild South ...again its Wild South's 'goodwill' / reputation that's suffering

The customer is always right ...they have a choice and can vote with their feet or wallet

So you use an example of two different retailers who cannot control the delivery times? How can they do anything about it? You want it magic carpeted to your door?

[Cyclical]

Given the issues with couriers why has a company like Hallensteins not got their local stores to do the deliveries. With a nationwide store network, they probably have stores within a 20 minute drive of most customers.

It would give customers a more reliable service and a point of difference while customers numbers are low and couriers are snowed under.

I’m sure there are real problems in rolling out a service like this quickly because otherwise it would be more common, but given clothing is small, lightweight and durable it should be easier for Hallensteins than other places.

Would it look good for company to have the young sales assistant rock up in their dirty old '91 Corolla (or dare I say it, Corona) at your house to make that special delivery? Not sure that would be the image they'd be chasing, it would have to be nicely sign written modern vans or summink.

[DarkHorse]

I called to order some new contact lenses a couple of weeks ago. The receptionist told me no worries, they'd be there the next day - "I've sent Robert out on deliveries". Yep, he's the optometrist - and now highly qualified courier!

[percy]

Not helpful at all

Hard to keep your customers happy if your delivery is ****e ....no matter how good your online offer is.

Well I ordered my new "Wish" watch in January or February.On special freight free.Total cost $4 NZ.
Has not turned up yet.Ordered from a firm just up North from Auckland,a place called China.
A bit of a bugger as the $6 one I brought a couple of years ago battery has given up the ghost..
Thought it would at some stage.That is why I ordered the new watch,as I thought it would most probably be cheaper than buying a new battery here.
Not a problem yet,as my computer has the time on it,as has my car.Just have to do the mental adjustment as the car's time is three hours out.
Expecting the courier any month now.

[kiora]

Well I ordered my new "Wish" watch in January or February.On special freight free.Total cost $4 NZ.
Has not turned up yet.Ordered from a firm just up North from Auckland,a place called China.
A bit of a bugger as the $6 one I brought a couple of years ago battery has given up the ghost..
Thought it would at some stage.That is why I ordered the new watch,as I thought it would most probably be cheaper than buying a new battery here.
Not a problem yet,as my computer has the time on it,as has my car.Just have to do the mental adjustment as the car's time is three hours out.
Expecting the courier any month now.

And ...... no phone,no time Mr P ?

[iceman]

And ...... no phone,no time Mr P ?

Correct. No mobile phone for Percy. When he used to visit Nelson on book selling trips, I found it easiest to get hold of him via ST messages LOL !!

[percy]

Correct. No mobile phone for Percy. When he used to visit Nelson on book selling trips, I found it easiest to get hold of him via ST messages LOL !!

"It really worked too."...lol.

[850man]

Back to matters HLG - I've made couple of orders via there online system during the past month. The website worked really well for me and delivery was 4 and then 2 business days. I'm a happy customer I have to say :-)

[Onion]

Not a problem yet,as my computer has the time on it,as has my car.Just have to do the mental adjustment as the car's time is three hours out.

You’ll just have to buy a new car.

[Waltzing]

prehaps percy is far wiser than us all. I once met an accountant recently who still kept all time sheets on a card. I realised the clients never asked him to account for his time. Pick a number and charge a fee. All those computer time and costs print outs in the 1980s were a complete waste of time. Percy knows most comsumption is for the birds.

[sb9]

Added a moderate holding this morning on the back of strong NZD and economy at Lvl 1...

[Cyclical]

Added a moderate holding this morning on the back of strong NZD and economy at Lvl 1...

I seem to be adding to my holding too. These are starting to look cheap relative to a lot of stocks IMO. They'll be back to paying a pretty good divvy before too long and will start to catch the attention of TD money looking for a more attractive yield.

[Waltzing]

stocks dont always just go up....well i hope for those who have bought up here the stock holds firm.

[sb9]

I seem to be adding to my holding too. These are starting to look cheap relative to a lot of stocks IMO. They'll be back to paying a pretty good divvy before too long and will start to catch the attention of TD money looking for a more attractive yield.

NZD around 65c USD is good spot for companies like HLG especially given low interest rates we live in currently. Add to that the divvy yield, should that be forthcoming later in the year.

[percy]

Take care.
Some very disturbing comments from MAX fashions,with regard to landlords not looking at longer term rent reductions.
Appears the temporary Virus reductions, although positive, do not take into account the ongoing issues ALL retailers face.
I have often stated Mall landlords are near impossible to deal with.They have not faced up to the new retail environment.I expect a great number of retail failures, and a growing number of empty shops.
In the past HLG have often bemoaned excessive rentals,and I expect that has been the big driver of them embracing the online channel,which they are very good at.

[sb9]

Take care.
Some very disturbing comments from MAX fashions,with regard to landlords not looking at longer term rent reductions.
Appears the temporary Virus reductions, although positive, do not take into account the ongoing issues ALL retailers face.
I have often stated Mall landlords are near impossible to deal with.They have not faced up to the new retail environment.I expect a great number of retail failures, and a growing number of empty shops.
In the past HLG have often bemoaned excessive rentals,and I expect that has been the big driver of them embracing the online channel,which they are very good at.

Thanks for the word of caution percy, will keep an eye out.

[Cyclical]

Take care.
Some very disturbing comments from MAX fashions,with regard to landlords not looking at longer term rent reductions.
Appears the temporary Virus reductions, although positive, do not take into account the ongoing issues ALL retailers face.
I have often stated Mall landlords are near impossible to deal with.They have not faced up to the new retail environment.I expect a great number of retail failures, and a growing number of empty shops.
In the past HLG have often bemoaned excessive rentals,and I expect that has been the big driver of them embracing the online channel,which they are very good at.

So true and it's in the back of my mind. But I think HLG will be better placed to handle it than most, and if some of the competition falls away, then it will only leave them better positioned.

[percy]

So true and it's in the back of my mind. But I think HLG will be better placed to handle it than most, and if some of the competition falls away, then it will only leave them better positioned.

I totally agree with your comments.
The Virus has brought forward huge changes in retail.
Altered or brought forward online buying by 2 to 5 years .
The crystal ball I owned is broken,so I can not foresee the huge changes happening in retail.
Just know it with come at a huge cost to all retailers,as landlords fail to adjust their rentals, and surviving stores try to trade with empty stores around them,while ongoing overheads keep on increasing.

[850man]

Take care.
Some very disturbing comments from MAX fashions,with regard to landlords not looking at longer term rent reductions.
Appears the temporary Virus reductions, although positive, do not take into account the ongoing issues ALL retailers face.
I have often stated Mall landlords are near impossible to deal with.They have not faced up to the new retail environment.I expect a great number of retail failures, and a growing number of empty shops.
In the past HLG have often bemoaned excessive rentals,and I expect that has been the big driver of them embracing the online channel,which they are very good at.

Empty shops are appearing in malls and shopping centres, this start a supply vs demand effect and if anything reduce rents. let's hope landlords do not gouge those tenants who stay to offset their unrented spaces

[winner69]

HLG coy on store closures

https://nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12338626

I still reckon they still might do a strategic withdrawal from Australia ...or at least only do online stuff over there

[Beagle]

HLG coy on store closures

https://nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12338626

I still reckon they still might do a strategic withdrawal from Australia ...or at least only do online stuff over there

Guy on CNBC said yesterday he believed the trend to online retail had been brought forward by as many as 10 years in some sectors as a result of Covid. Probably not quite that much in the apparel sector as people still want to make sure they like the feel and fit of the clothes.

[Cadalac123]

Glassons advertising from 1944, pretty cool eh.

https://m.imgur.com/DpKImnV

I wonder what the 2044 line will look like...


Guy on CNBC said yesterday he believed the trend to online retail had been brought forward by as many as 10 years in some sectors as a result of Covid. Probably not quite that much in the apparel sector as people still want to make sure they like the feel and fit of the clothes.

Agreed, to some extent if people know the brands well they don't mind ordering online, but the risk is way too high for me to rely on online even when websites like iconic do decent discounts.

[dreamcatcher]

No surprises here ........

"Fashion brand Ingrid Starnes has announced it’s closing the retail arm of its business due to the impacts of Covid-19.

It’s tough times for the local fashion industry right now. This week, clothing chain Max announced it was closing 17 stores (https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/418583/max-fashions-to-close-17-stores) with a number of staff facing redundancy. In May, Juliette Hogan announced it was closing its bridal channel (https://juliettehogan.com/pages/juliette-hogan-bridal) at the end of June to “refocus” its energy on its main collection and retail stores. And in February, Harman Grubisa came to a sudden end after more than five successful years on the scene."

https://thespinoff.co.nz/business/10-06-2020/fashion-house-ingrid-starnes-to-close-all-retail-as-commercial-bay-store-opens/

[King1212]

Bendon outlet too ...looking to close couple of thier stores...shame the models are not for sale...

[Cyclical]

It’s tough times for the local fashion industry right now.

No illusions there.

However, I see this bit as a positive for HLG:


This week, clothing chain Max announced it was closing 17 stores (https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/418583/max-fashions-to-close-17-stores) with a number of staff facing redundancy.

[Cyclical]

Just sampled a couple of demographics in our household... My 11 year old daughter thinks it's funny that Max is closing because she prefers Glassons, while her mum likes Max. When put to my wife that if confronted with the prospect that Max is a gonna, would she then shop at Glassons, her response "No i will not, because Glassons don't do stuff that is nice!"

So there you have it, dumping the HLG shares tomorrow.

[dreamcatcher]

Just sampled a couple of demographics in our household... My 11 year old daughter thinks it's funny that Max is closing because she prefers Glassons, while her mum likes Max. When put to my wife that if confronted with the prospect that Max is a gonna, would she then shop at Glassons, her response "No i will not, because Glassons don't do stuff that is nice!"

So there you have it, dumping the HLG shares tomorrow.

Haha Family sampling! Been a while since I had anything to do with manufacturing clothing but remember there been a huge different between Max/Glassons styling.

[macduffy]

Remind me again, who's closing the 17 stores?

:ohmy:

[dreamcatcher]

Zara closing 1000 - 1200 brick and mortar stores to invest in online shopping maybe an end of shopping malls if others follow. Not sure missus will like that much as she loves Zara's but tries on everything before purchasing. Wondering whether its a blessing for my pocket or not ?

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/zara-closing-over-1-000-194238845.html?guccounter=1

[tzbang]

Seems to be quite a few articles coming out recently pointing to strong pick-up in mall visitors, and credit card sales up.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121909991/foot-traffic-at-kiwi-propertys-malls-has-rebounded-to-precovid-levels
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/300040707/credit-card-spending-lifts-after-record-lockdown-drop

Maybe HLG might not be doing too badly after all?

[850man]

Seems to be quite a few articles coming out recently pointing to strong pick-up in mall visitors, and credit card sales up.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121909991/foot-traffic-at-kiwi-propertys-malls-has-rebounded-to-precovid-levels
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/300040707/credit-card-spending-lifts-after-record-lockdown-drop

Maybe HLG might not be doing too badly after all?

Their online channel is pretty good too. Let's hope it results in some good revenue and profit when next they report.

[Beagle]

How much is pent up demand brought about by the lockdown, (I have to get out and get some new clothes for winter) and will that demand last ? That's the $64,000 question.

[gbogo]

I know a 19yo woman, avid follower of fashion, who now buys almost everything online and sends back half of it or more. See www.stitchfix.com etc - free shipping / free returns.

[FatTed]

How much is pent up demand brought about by the lockdown, (I have to get out and get some new clothes for winter) and will that demand last ? That's the $64,000 question.

My daughter works in retail in ladies fashion, they are going gangbusters.

[waterboy]

Missus got back from the base in Hamilton this arvo and reports it was madness. Had to queue for 10mins to get carpark so retail seems busy but there were a lot of sales. What reports do others have from their local mall.

[smbunn]

Back to HLG. I noted that KMD shares have surged on news that they are doing quite well. I bought at the 50 cents issue so am pretty happy. HLG is in the same space, but we don't hear from them. Do you think a market update on trading would have a huge impact on the share price? Also, are they going to release the unpaid dividend from April in November, a double payment in effect, that would surge the price if it was at the 40 cents level.

[macduffy]

Back to HLG. I noted that KMD shares have surged on news that they are doing quite well. I bought at the 50 cents issue so am pretty happy. HLG is in the same space, but we don't hear from them. Do you think a market update on trading would have a huge impact on the share price? Also, are they going to release the unpaid dividend from April in November, a double payment in effect, that would surge the price if it was at the 40 cents level.

I wouldn't bet on it. Far too early to get a firm line on recent trading and profitability IMO. HLG's a progressive retailer but not a company to take risks with its liquidity.

[nztx]

I wouldn't bet on it. Far too early to get a firm line on recent trading and profitability IMO. HLG's a progressive retailer but not a company to take risks with its liquidity.


What are the chances of an increased next dividend, where earlier 2020 Dividend has been cancelled & Company hasn't fared to badly ?

[clip]

Back to HLG. I noted that KMD shares have surged on news that they are doing quite well. I bought at the 50 cents issue so am pretty happy. HLG is in the same space, but we don't hear from them. Do you think a market update on trading would have a huge impact on the share price? Also, are they going to release the unpaid dividend from April in November, a double payment in effect, that would surge the price if it was at the 40 cents level.

I am interested to see if they were paying full rent or had any reduced rent/rebates which may be good for bottom line? not sure if this has been reported on by the company to date

[winner69]

Wonder if Glassons have had to close Melbourne stores?

[Getty]

When's that well dressed cat gonna come back?
He obviously got his fashion accessories from HLG.

I miss that authoritive look he gave your posts

[tim23]

Was in the city today and bought a few shirts, talked to staff said trade has been tracking back to pre-covid levels, sounds encouraging to me.

[nztx]

Some solid email marketing campaigns coming out of HLG in the past month, with good offers

Some obvious recent rerating by Mr Market of the HLG & BGR in retail along with HGH does not surprise..

Discl: Hldr in these

[Beagle]

Anyone considering this one needs to carefully consider how bad things could potentially get in Australia as well as the severe recession and ballooning umemployment here. The stubbornness of the very high Covid numbers in Victoria despite being in lockdown for more than two weeks and the potential for spread to NSW is a risk factor that deserves very careful consideration in terms of its impact on Glassons Australia.

Disc: Not holding....might be interested somewhere in the mid-late $2's.

[850man]

I see HLG put out a trading update 12 Aug last year so we may hear some news shortly

[Joshuatree]

Bought my last ever sale shirts and socks yest from Hallys downtown.It and Glassons have closed permanently leaving just the Bayfair mall shops. Ironically our local council have just dropped onerous earthquake strengthening rules here which were making it unviable to fix up all the old shops.Some had already been demolished! "This town is coming like a ghost town" by The Specials ,fits accurately, sadly.

[winner69]

I see HLG put out a trading update 12 Aug last year so we may hear some news shortly

Told us the other 10 stores closed in Victoria due to virus ...that’ll hurt them

Even worse when Sydney stores close as well

[daveoi]

Their financial Year ends July 31st. Lots of Retailers are trading well and have been since the beginning of level 3 (source: own experience, anaecdotal feedback, and releases from Briscoes: https://insideretail.co.nz/2020/07/23/briscoe-group-sees-strong-sales-rebound-post-lockdown/, Kiwi Property: https://insideretail.co.nz/2020/06/23/kiwi-property-charts-traffic-recovery-across-shopping-centres/) . Rent abatements & wage subsidies will help result look quite positive given the circumstances (wage subsidy continued to pay people while stores were trading strongly. Market should get an update mid August on their full year performance. Unknown how much impact Victoria lockdown and possibly NSW lockdown will have on sales as they have an extremely good online business that could pick up lost bricks and mortar sales.

Disc: Work in retail (not HLG). Holding HLG.

[BlackPeter]

Their financial Year ends July 31st. Lots of Retailers are trading well and have been since the beginning of level 3 (source: own experience, anaecdotal feedback, and releases from Briscoes: https://insideretail.co.nz/2020/07/23/briscoe-group-sees-strong-sales-rebound-post-lockdown/, Kiwi Property: https://insideretail.co.nz/2020/06/23/kiwi-property-charts-traffic-recovery-across-shopping-centres/) . Rent abatements & wage subsidies will help result look quite positive given the circumstances (wage subsidy continued to pay people while stores were trading strongly. Market should get an update mid August on their full year performance. Unknown how much impact Victoria lockdown and possibly NSW lockdown will have on sales as they have an extremely good online business that could pick up lost bricks and mortar sales.

Disc: Work in retail (not HLG). Holding HLG.

Welcome to the forum ... good first post.

Question, though - what impact would you see on the industry when wage subsidy schemes in both Australia and New Zealand are starting to expire and the real unemployment rates shines through? Share prices are normally forward looking (even if the past looks marvelous).

[King1212]

Oz wage subsidy is extended till March 2021

[daveoi]

Welcome to the forum ... good first post.

Question, though - what impact would you see on the industry when wage subsidy schemes in both Australia and New Zealand are starting to expire and the real unemployment rates shines through? Share prices are normally forward looking (even if the past looks marvelous).

The initial forecasts (just as we were coming out of lockdown) were that a lot of people were planning for a 10% sales drop through the spring/summer seasons. However, as trade has been stronger than expected, for longer than expected - whether this comes to pass is another story.

There is definite risk, and adding to it mortgage holidays coming off, we could definitely see a downturn. I think HGL will take a conservative approach to their capital - but even so I think they may pay an increased dividend next time around given they didn't pay out the last one, and I have a feeling their profit will be inflated by not essentially not having to pay any wages for 3 months.

[BlackPeter]

The initial forecasts (just as we were coming out of lockdown) were that a lot of people were planning for a 10% sales drop through the spring/summer seasons. However, as trade has been stronger than expected, for longer than expected - whether this comes to pass is another story.

There is definite risk, and adding to it mortgage holidays coming off, we could definitely see a downturn. I think HGL will take a conservative approach to their capital - but even so I think they may pay an increased dividend next time around given they didn't pay out the last one, and I have a feeling their profit will be inflated by not essentially not having to pay any wages for 3 months.

Interesting - and you well might be right related to the current reporting period. How the future will look is obviously anybody's guess.

Still waiting for the bear to start mauling before buying back in, but who knows - these well might be my famous last words?

[Cyclical]

Told us the other 10 stores closed in Victoria due to virus ...that’ll hurt them

Even worse when Sydney stores close as well


The initial forecasts (just as we were coming out of lockdown) were that a lot of people were planning for a 10% sales drop through the spring/summer seasons. However, as trade has been stronger than expected, for longer than expected - whether this comes to pass is another story.

There is definite risk, and adding to it mortgage holidays coming off, we could definitely see a downturn. I think HGL will take a conservative approach to their capital - but even so I think they may pay an increased dividend next time around given they didn't pay out the last one, and I have a feeling their profit will be inflated by not essentially not having to pay any wages for 3 months.

Like daveoi, I'm mildly optimistic/hopeful that this year's results won't actually be too bad and we'll see a reasonable dividend. Also because FY ends for these guys in 2 days, the impact of the latest Oz lockdowns will be spread across this and next year's results, so not so hard to swallow all at once. Definitely interesting times ahead, but not expecting this result to be too nasty.

And BP, the bear has already maulled it down almost 20% from the recent high...just saying ;-)

[Snow Leopard]

...Still waiting for the bear to start mauling before buying back in, but who knows - these well might be my famous last words?

Whilst we hope that these words of yours become famous, at the same time we hope that they are not your last.

[Cyclical]

Well this part of my portfolio ain't looking so great at the moment and the slide seems to be accelerating, down 4% today alone. I can only assume the unease is primarily because of the situation unfolding in Oz. Even though we're now in a new financial year, it's likely to have a negative bearing on the upcoming divvy...if there is one.

[Waltzing]

dont worry there are a lot of us who have a few stocks that werent sold in time back in march and dont look to good. We have a couple we dont expect to recover for 3 to 5 years . Hold on and hopefully this too will pass... in a year or 2 but the damage will be in the worlds economy for a good while.. even if reserve banks did a BOJ and bought equities and also bough government debt direct only then would you possible get a sooner lift.. but reserve banks dont yet buy bonds direct from governments that i know of.

[nztx]

dont worry there are a lot of us who have a few stocks that werent sold in time back in march and dont look to good. We have a couple we dont expect to recover for 3 to 5 years . Hold on and hopefully this too will pass... in a year or 2 but the damage will be in the worlds economy for a good while.. even if reserve banks did a BOJ and bought equities and also bough government debt direct only then would you possible get a sooner lift.. but reserve banks dont yet buy bonds direct from governments that i know of.

A good opportunity for 'averaging down' .. had a few Co's with large notional red ink riding through from late March / April .. a few have recovered that plus with averaging nicely

A Notional Paper Loss at times doesn't worry me too much, but may present further opportunity

HLG will be one for a bit of averaging down shortly here ..

SP is probably only being discounted down for the OZ Retail situation

[winner69]

HLG share price back to $2.50 soon I reckon

Might have to have a go then

[Beagle]

HLG share price back to $2.50 soon I reckon

Might have to have a go then

Think it was this time,, around August in 2016 you and I jumped in at ~ $2.70 and subsequently made a lot of money. History never repeats, or does it ? :D

[Waltzing]

OH YES PLEASE!!! 2.50!!!! well as usual the beagle got the bone first but i followed along later and found a few scraps he missed , plenty of bones on this one in a year or too... its not the end of the world... yet... planet is still spinning... sun came up today ... bit of rain to make the grass grow and boy isnt the grass looking good this spring in the golden triangle...

[bull....]

the long term chart looks like the roller coaster at magic mountain

[Waltzing]

if you compress the chart from 2008 to 2015 you can see the exact same pattern . Then compress the chart... so far a perfect match..3 dollars could be the buy in. it took 5 years from 2008 before you made your big money but it retraced twice to higher lows..

[macduffy]

Think it was this time,, around August in 2016 you and I jumped in at ~ $2.70 and subsequently made a lot of money. History never repeats, or does it ? :D

No, not exactly, Beagle. No coronavirus in 2016, for example!

;)

[Snow Leopard]

Think it was this time,, around August in 2016 you and I jumped in at ~ $2.70 and subsequently made a lot of money. History never repeats, or does it ? :D

You guys were a little slow out of the blocks.

[Cyclical]

Oh well, nice DCA opportunities ATM...hope I don't regret it ;-) Sounds like we should be expecting a market update sometime soon, so I'm not expecting any major swings from the current SP until that happens. Although this one tends not to have a lot of liquidity about it, so it doesn't take a lot to see a sizable move in either direction.

[nztx]

I'm amazed at how much Mr Market is writing the Oz stores guesses into the SP

Now I courld understand that with KMD & to an extent BGP as a reduced minority stakeholder in KMD

Basically the HLG business is solid, little debt, run by proven professionals in their game

Okay a messy messy year coming up, but the best in the game can & generally do make the best out of any mess

Discl. L T Holder

[Cyclical]

I expected this one to fair a bit worse than it did today. Nice drop then pretty much back to where it started. Had a low $3.x offer in there but a bit too late. It's taken a pounding lately so maybe Mr Market felt the covid resurgence was already priced in. Or is there an interesting market announcement due any day?

[Waltzing]

market soother, Russian vaccine and new vp for biden

[sb9]

Kudos to management and Board..

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/358264

For the full year online sales were 22% as a percentage of total sales but increased to 31% for the last 6 months.

The Directors have declared an interim dividend of 15 cents per share (fully imputed) (last year 20 cents per share) to be paid on 4 September 2020. The Group’s balance sheet and projected future cash flow remains strong. Stock levels are also well managed.

[couta1]

Kudos to management and Board..

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/358264

For the full year online sales were 22% as a percentage of total sales but increased to 31% for the last 6 months.

The Directors have declared an interim dividend of 15 cents per share (fully imputed) (last year 20 cents per share) to be paid on 4 September 2020. The Group’s balance sheet and projected future cash flow remains strong. Stock levels are also well managed. Yes indeed, a proven long term stayer in fair and foul weather, online increase of 80% is outstanding.

[macduffy]

Yes, an excellent result in adverse circumstances!

[Balance]

Kudos to management and Board..

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/358264

For the full year online sales were 22% as a percentage of total sales but increased to 31% for the last 6 months.

The Directors have declared an interim dividend of 15 cents per share (fully imputed) (last year 20 cents per share) to be paid on 4 September 2020. The Group’s balance sheet and projected future cash flow remains strong. Stock levels are also well managed.

The doomsday merchants misjudged how well their online platform is going and doing - up 80%.

Well done, HLG!

[sb9]

Yes indeed, a proven long term stayer in fair and foul weather, online increase of 80% is outstanding.

Good on ya couta and welcome back to bright side...and further to today's announcement, below is more pertinent..

"A full profit release will be made to the market on 25 September 2020 when a final dividend will be considered."

[carrom74]

Kept on buying on dips.Averaged it all along.By far the best retail stock in NZX

[850man]

Bloody great result under the circumstances and a divvy too!

BTW - Couta, good to see you back on here

[clearasmud]

Yes indeed, a proven long term stayer in fair and foul weather, online increase of 80% is outstanding.

Good to see you back under pleasant circumstances.
Currently you can't buy these for love or money.
Dividend now and December!

[Beagle]

Yes indeed, a proven long term stayer in fair and foul weather, online increase of 80% is outstanding.

Coutts you're back !!!!!

HLG's result is like your skiing ability, very strong !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Waltzing]

KMD still has the volumes for trading. HLG stores in central n island are never busy. Still under priced at 4 dollars if that is the case. HLG back to 5 dollars sometime 2021 and over 5 by 2022 easily.

Do i remember Mr C buying at 4.50 and above , prehaps 3.90 is his average and he is back at cost? or even profit?

Who wants over 5% DIV. This share is dirt cheap.

share price 28 % off last october? or are my eyes covered BBB's not seeing the chart today clearly.

I think MR B must have bought already at the open or will be asking for a bulk buy SP from a platform market maker.

Buy Orders building. No Sellers.

DISC: always trading a small number of retail shares across listed retailers.

[Snow Leopard]

Will be back to $6 no-time.

[Beagle]

I have an expectation we will be dealing with N.Z. and Australia going in and out of various Covid lockdown level's for probably the next two years. Obviously this will affect most of the market not just HLG.

Lockdown has probably accelerated online shopping to where it would have been 3-4 years hence which is a good thing and may well continue in future periods when lockdown isn't in effect.

[sb9]

Will be back to $6 no-time.

Let's start with $5 for now...and depending on what they say on 25th Sep, we might see it head back to $6 mark..

[allfromacell]

Very impressive result considering the environment, yield still looks around 8% fully imputed? With interest rates going down even more over the next year this is still good value.

[percy]

I have an expectation we will be dealing with N.Z. and Australia going in and out of various Covid lockdown level's for probably the next two years. Obviously this will affect most of the market not just HLG.

Lockdown has probably accelerated online shopping to where it would have been 3-4 years hence which is a good thing and may well continue in future periods when lockdown isn't in effect.

Agree.
Fantastic result.Online really working well for them.
However so many unknowns.
How many shops are currently shut.?
How many landlords are being "fair and reasonable"?

[Snow Leopard]

Let's start with $5 for now...and depending on what they say on 25th Sep, we might see it head back to $6 mark..

Come on sb9, $5 is just a stepping stone on the path to $6. :)

[Waltzing]

Vaccines may be out in the US by march 31 .

https://www.fiercepharma.com/vaccines/moderna-stands-to-earn-300m-from-early-covid-vaccine-approval-up-to-6-6b-for-extra-dose

the dividend will drive the market as term deposits disappear to nothing much with negative interest rates. Buy now while you can buy dividend.

4.5% here, 4.5% here. going going going $$$$$

If it drops back to 3.50 well.

[Beagle]

Agree.
Fantastic result.Online really working well for them.
However so many unknowns.
How many shops are currently shut.?
How many landlords are being "fair and reasonable"?

The biggest unknown of all, how long are we going to be dealing with lockdown's from Covid and will things ever return to the way they were pre Covid and will vaccines when they are eventually available be all that effective ?

I think talk of $5-$6 assumes things are going to go back to pre covid normal sometime in 2021 and that looks VERY optimistic to me.

[percy]

The biggest unknown of all, how long are we going to be dealing with lockdown's from Covid and will things ever return to the way they were pre Covid and will vaccines when they are eventually available be all that effective ?

I think talk of $5-$6 assumes things are going to go back to pre covid normal sometime in 2021 and that looks VERY optimistic to me.

As per my previous post......agree.................lol.

[Waltzing]

Dr F says a 50% rate is a game changer. Flu is only 50-60. Your being too risk averse my young friends ant thinking like that. Check with the under 30's and you will find they just dont get effected the same way as there time horizon is out there over the rainbow and at the beach..

its .... gone ...

happy to hold these till 2023 and beyond. Only retail stock we may keep.

[macduffy]

The biggest unknown of all, how long are we going to be dealing with lockdown's from Covid and will things ever return to the way they were pre Covid and will vaccines when they are eventually available be all that effective ?

I think talk of $5-$6 assumes things are going to go back to pre covid normal sometime in 2021 and that looks VERY optimistic to me.

The good news is that HLG has managed to make their business work effectively under "new normal" circumstances!

[Waltzing]

""new normal" circumstances!"

with saving and TD rating disappearing down the river 5 dollars target was the old 4.

some people are thinking like the old normal and the new normal is negative interest rates soooon...

[Beagle]

The good news is that HLG has managed to make their business work effectively under "new normal" circumstances!

Can't disagree with that other than to note their performance has in no small way been assisted with an abundance of Government stimulus.

[Cyclical]

Can't disagree with that other than to note their performance has in no small way been assisted with an abundance of Government stimulus.

Beagle, you've been down on HLG for quite some time, but now it's sounding like sour grapes. It's one of the few remaining decent stocks that has still been trading well south of pre-covid levels, and yet they've got a well proven track record spanning, what is it, ~150 years through many a recession while continuing to pay dividends. Dam it all, I was within a gnat's whisker of topping up at $3.06 the other day! That's less than half their pre-covid level...if that didn't look like a bargain in today's crazy market, then I don't know what does. Yeah, there are challenges ahead, but factor in the current interest rate environment and pre-covid pricing is suddenly looking not so steep!

[James108]

Great result, much better than expected way back in March and even better than as recently as yesterday.

[Beagle]

Beagle, you've been down on HLG for quite some time, but now it's sounding like sour grapes. It's one of the few remaining decent stocks that has still been trading well south of pre-covid levels, and yet they've got a well proven track record spanning, what is it, ~150 years through many a recession while continuing to pay dividends. Dam it all, I was within a gnat's whisker of topping up at $3.06 the other day! That's less than half their pre-covid level...if that didn't look like a bargain in today's crazy market, then I don't know what does. Yeah, there are challenges ahead, but factor in the current interest rate environment and pre-covid pricing is suddenly looking not so steep!

Just calling it as I see it mate. Govt can't keep printing money forever and their apparent inability to execute effectively at the border suggests HLG like many other business's will have to deal with lockdowns from its own resources at some stage. Yes it was a great result as I acknowledged earlier today. What's a fair price ?...I'm assuming the situation in Victoria and Auckland is extremely problematic for quite some time and I will be very pleased if I am wrong. Others will make different assumptions about the effect of Covid on retail and come up with different valuations but the truth is we're all just guessing.

I'm guessing its logical younger investors will be less concerned about Covid that older investors.

[Waltzing]

"What's a fair price ?"

well for me its the div and with other stocks on the market its undervalued compared to many others paying 3% but the risk factor of retail always means HLG lags the market due to risk. Its not an air line stock but its not a GNE or MCY.

Thats why i believe a price between 3.50 and 4 dollars is far value at present based on there balance sheet, cash flow and ability to pay a dividend when most other cannot even think about it in retail for at least another 12 months including the likes of entertainment like skc.

A bounce back down to 3.50 as per chart and we will double down and i suspect others will be thinking this as well..

Mr C called it right.

[peat]

yeh retail is worrisome so I never increased during the lulls, instead diversifying into MHJ, but am happily hodling on with a current 8% exposure. a dividend is nice and will still be a reasonable return even on my highish average entry price.

I have faith in the way they operate even more now though !

[nztx]

A very respectable result in the circumstances from HLG with previous canned Interim Div paid out in a few weeks time
& possible further final dividend being considered 25 Sep.

If Final Div is near or above the 15c Interim, then a good Dividend yield too with tax credits usually attached

Try finding a bank or institution which pays similarly well now, as we lurch towards possible negative interest rates

I have have good deal of respect for these guys - very astute proven operators in the game

Discl: Holder

[Snow Leopard]

'Staggering' number of households behind on their mortgages (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/122480540/staggering-number-of-households-behind-on-their-mortgages)

People stop paying their mortgages so they can shop at Hallensteins & Glassons :p

[percy]

'Staggering' number of households behind on their mortgages (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/122480540/staggering-number-of-households-behind-on-their-mortgages)

People stop paying their mortgages so they can shop at Hallensteins & Glassons :p

Looks like NZ could become the country known for the best dressed homeless people in the world.?

[winner69]

Pretty amazing H2 profit in line with last year when it covered all the lockdown period in NZ and most of the turmoil in Oz

Pretty amazing stuff

[Waltzing]

well Mr B is waiting for under 3 dollars with a crash in the consumer about late november and the xmas trading update in january a slump? looking at the GFC graph its a steady climb for 3 years.

Imagine if there was no virus the result would have been? and the share price?

"

The Company advises that the unaudited sales for the 12 months ended 1 August


2020 were $287.76 million, an increase of 0.1% on the prior year ($287.55


million). "




The last time it sold off was on competition flooding in from europe and that resulted in? HLG overcoming the challenge and going on to take the GOLD and vanquishing the usurpers.

[Beagle]

In my opinion its now very unlikely to go under $3.50 again after this very resilient result. Fair to say the market, (as am I), is very surprised by the strength of the result looking at the share price.
What's a fair price is something I am working on at the moment....so many unknowns with the extent of Covid effect in FY21 and FY22.

[Waltzing]

Mr B wont we have to wait to see the balance sheet ? and im only thinking a fair price today. Ill leave future prices to more experianced accounting experts. But it appears the consumer has taken there hard earned cash and purchased the goods and they have the final word.

im expecting the share' ies people to go wild!

DISC: got some.

[Beagle]

HLG always run a very tight ship with their balance sheet so I don't need to wait and see that.
My updated valuation on an earning basis is $4.78 which assumes a similar level of Covid effect in FY21 and FY22 as occurred in FY20

I think there's sufficient margin of safety at the current price of just over $4 for investors to take a modest stake for dividend yield as part of a well diversified portfolio.

Others comments that we're headed to a zero interest rate is not in dispute at all. The argument is what sort of a dividend yield premium should one expect for HLG compared to say GNE which is yielding 6.1% plus imputation credits ? They're about 7.5% gross yield incl of imputation credits but we'll know a lot more tomorrow when they report.

For what its worth I have used a 1.5% gross premium assumption over GNE, (this on the face of looks modest for a retailer compared to a utility but HLG does have a stellar track record of divvy payments) and I want to see 9% gross yield inclusive of imputation credits for HLG and I have assumed in the medium term HLG can pay its last 16 year average of 31.5 cps in fully imputed dividends. Current year earnings at the mid point are 46.3 cps so 31.5 cps is a fairly conservative assumption and well below the payout ratio of recent years so the risk in the medium term is to the upside in my dividend assumption.

31.5 cps / 0.72 = 43.75 cents per share gross and at 9% gross that gives a value to me of $4.86 on a dividend yield model assuming no growth in dividends over time and risk free interest rate staying at 1% for the medium term.

That's where I see it for now...so much depends on how Covid plays out and only time will answer that question. I think on a balanced view of risks and rewards HLG are a pretty good hold at around $4.15 as an income stock. Disc: I bought a modest stake this afternoon. Probably worth noting that at $4.15 you're really only paying $4.00 for future earnings as you get 15 cents back as a dividend in a couple of weeks so yeah at $4 net I think that's pretty good buying considering how resilient the business has proved itself to be which I must confess has been most surprising.

[Waltzing]

Gosh that was FAST WORK! Thank you MR B i will have to repay the gentlemen with a wine or beer of his choice if im ever lucky enough to have the opportunity. many thanks we will be increasing our holdings if it drops below 4 dollars as it often does wobble about!

GNE reporting a reserve increase in kupe i see.

[Cyclical]

HLG always run a very tight ship with their balance sheet so I don't need to wait and see that.
My updated valuation on an earning basis is $4.78 which assumes a similar level of Covid effect in FY21 and FY22 as occurred in FY20

I think there's sufficient margin of safety at the current price of just over $4 for investors to take a modest stake for dividend yield as part of a well diversified portfolio.

Others comments that we're headed to a zero interest rate is not in dispute at all. The argument is what sort of a dividend yield premium should one expect for HLG compared to say GNE which is yielding 6.1% plus imputation credits ? They're about 7.5% gross yield incl of imputation credits but we'll know a lot more tomorrow when they report.

For what its worth I have used a 1.5% gross premium assumption over GNE, (this on the face of looks modest for a retailer compared to a utility but HLG does have a stellar track record of divvy payments) and I want to see 9% gross yield inclusive of imputation credits for HLG and I have assumed in the medium term HLG can pay its last 16 year average of 31.5 cps in fully imputed dividends. Current year earnings at the mid point are 46.3 cps so 31.5 cps is a fairly conservative assumption and well below the payout ratio of recent years so the risk in the medium term is to the upside in my dividend assumption.

31.5 cps / 0.72 = 43.75 cents per share gross and at 9% gross that gives a value to me of $4.86 on a dividend yield model assuming no growth in dividends over time and risk free interest rate staying at 1% for the medium term.

That's where I see it for now...so much depends on how Covid plays out and only time will answer that question. I think on a balanced view of risks and rewards HLG are a pretty good hold at around $4.15 as an income stock. Disc: I bought a modest stake this afternoon.

Thanks Beagle, nice one.


Probably worth noting that at $4.15 you're really only paying $4.00 for future earnings as you get 15 cents back as a dividend in a couple of weeks so yeah at $4 net I think that's pretty good buying considering how resilient the business has proved itself to be which I must confess has been most surprising.

Yes, that was running through my mind today as I mulled over whether I wanted to add more...might sit tight and see if we see some profit taking in the short term.

[Mudfish]

Once again HLG shows itself to be a smart and robust company. I bought some of these bad boys this avo. Am considering getting some more tomorrow and am wondering what people think about this part of the announcement. It states, " The Directors have declared an interim dividend of 15 cents per share (fully imputed) (last year 20 cents per share) to be paid on 4 September 2020. The Group's balance sheet and projected future cash flow remains strong. Stock levels are also well managed.

A full profit release will be made to the market on 25 September 2020 when a
final dividend will be considered."

Am I understanding this correctly in thinking the 15 cents divi (imputed) is guaranteed Sept 4 and is catch up for the lack of divi in April? Also there is a possibility of a divi announcement late Sept normally paid Dec? That means a a possibility of 2 divis pretty close together? This is if all goes well of course. Any thoughts??

[Snow Leopard]

Once again HLG shows itself to be a smart and robust company. I bought some of these bad boys this avo. Am considering getting some more tomorrow and am wondering what people think about this part of the announcement. It states, " The Directors have declared an interim dividend of 15 cents per share (fully imputed) (last year 20 cents per share) to be paid on 4 September 2020. The Group's balance sheet and projected future cash flow remains strong. Stock levels are also well managed.

A full profit release will be made to the market on 25 September 2020 when a
final dividend will be considered."

Am I understanding this correctly in thinking the 15 cents divi (imputed) is guaranteed Sept 4 and is catch up for the lack of divi in April? Also there is a possibility of a divi announcement late Sept normally paid Dec? That means a a possibility of 2 divis pretty close together? This is if all goes well of course. Any thoughts??

Yes I think not only will we get an Interim 15c divvy next month but also a Final dividend, probably in Dec.
Also historically Finals are usually larger than Interims and this could well be the case this time.

That would be nice. :)

[Mudfish]

Thanks Snow Leopard. This does seem an unusual but exciting opportunity. Cheers

[JeremyALD]

Outstanding result and I bought some today. I've been mulling buying shares for a couple of weeks so a bit disappointed I was so late!

I'm a bit confused about the divvy. Is the ex dividend date 4 September, which is also the same date of payment?

[Snow Leopard]

Outstanding result and I bought some today. I've been mulling buying shares for a couple of weeks so a bit disappointed I was so late!

I'm a bit confused about the divvy. Is the ex dividend date 4 September, which is also the same date of payment?

I am guessing that the ex-date will be before 4-Sep.
It should appear in the list of dividends on NZX.com soon, then we will know.

[sb9]

Outstanding result and I bought some today. I've been mulling buying shares for a couple of weeks so a bit disappointed I was so late!

I'm a bit confused about the divvy. Is the ex dividend date 4 September, which is also the same date of payment?

Ex-Date (one business day before the Record Date) 27/08/2020

Goes XD on 27th Aug and Payment on 4th Sep...cool eh

[Beagle]

Outstanding result and I bought some today. I've been mulling buying shares for a couple of weeks so a bit disappointed I was so late!

I'm a bit confused about the divvy. Is the ex dividend date 4 September, which is also the same date of payment?

Dividend dates are here mate. http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HLG/358264/328717.pdf

HLG have a long track record of paying out dividends that are very close to the eps. At the mid point of the forecast eps is 46.3 cps.

[Waltzing]

if they pay out full dividend there wont be much time to accumulate larger holdings. Prehaps MR B bought before the posting because he may well have put a floor under the price with 9% gross.

[nztx]

-- Posting Deleted --

Info already posted above by others here

[Beagle]

if MR B is correct and they pay close to EPS then what share price might we see not with standing the risk associated with retail due to recession conditions which we surely will get.

There wont be much time to accumulate larger holdings without going off market. This used to be an option with DB.

Possibly worth noting they held back ~ 10 cps of the first half earnings, (as well as delaying it) so provided trading is okay between now and report date they might pay out all of the second half earnings, about 21 cps for a total this year of 36 cps. I think despite their extraordinary track record with a very high payout ratio they'll play it a bit safe this year and I think that's very prudent in the circumstances.

[Waltzing]

Mr B has high lighted that they may indeed wish to hold some back. Prehaps this will be the only chance to buy in more heavily. Once a vaccine roles out the doors and moderna has enrollments running at over 8000 heading to 30,000 for a january rollout.

A gentlemen tonight said he had done well the last 10 years buying F&P , mainfreight ect. He said he followed the stories of well run companies and bought in because of the story. He was not an accounting professional but said it was like horse racing and make sure you read the story of the team who are running the stables.

HLG has proven itself a winner and the team has prehaps not been covered as in depth. Is this company a story that some of us has just not believed in while MR C knew the stable?