PRC Pike River Coal

[gbeenz]

To the office of Pike River Coal Company,

I think the Company and the Computershare might need to double-check the entire of the transaction list because “I got more than I paid”.

I checked the company website and didn’t find a direct contact link. Then I emailed to enquiries@pike.co.nz.

Could I have those extra shares for free because of my honest?

Cheers
Bixbite Are you sure? Those figures on the Computershare site are the summary of your total holdings.

Mine check out OK

[Bixbite]

Bixbite Are you sure? Those figures on the Computershare site are the summary of your total holdings.

Mine check out OK


Yes, I’m sure. Those extra shares, which I didn’t pay for, are still there under my registration name.

.

[Bixbite]

According to the company’s 21 April 2009 announcement
FULLY SUBSCRIBED RIGHTS ISSUE FOR PIKE RIVER COAL

“More than two-thirds of Pike River Coal’s 7,800 shareholders have taken up their rights entitlements for 53.76 million shares out of the total offer of 58.57 million shares. Nearly 3,000 shareholders applied for a further 12.38 million shares in excess of their entitlements.

Allocation of the 4.8 million shortfall in rights based applications for shares between Pike River Coal shareholders under the excess subscription facility and the underwriters has been undertaken in accordance with the Investment Statement. Accordingly 2.4 million shares will be allocated across shareholders and 2.4 million shares allocated to underwriters. The allocation to shareholders who applied under the excess subscription facility will be scaled on the basis of their shareholdings on the Record Date of 30 March 2009.”


*****

I think the error is from the “allotment” and “float allotment”.

When doing the sum, the formula should ignore the “float allotment”, but they put it in and added it up.

If I’m right, can I have all my additional shares plus the extra ones as a prize?

Cheers

[777]

I am interested, however I am asked for my FIN, which I have lost.
Any idea how to get my FIN again?

Thanks
OO

You may have to ask the share registry for that info. When you sell shares now do you not give a FIN number to your broker? Online I have to give it for every sale of shares?

Sorry I am not much help.

[Mysterybox]

You may have to ask the share registry for that info. When you sell shares now do you not give a FIN number to your broker? Online I have to give it for every sale of shares?

Sorry I am not much help.

You need to call ComputerShare and give them your information, you can receive your FIN within a few days. Your FIN is required for each transaction on the New Zealand exchange. Not for ASX if you are buying PRC via that exchange.

[oldowl]

You need to call ComputerShare and give them your information, you can receive your FIN within a few days. Your FIN is required for each transaction on the New Zealand exchange. Not for ASX if you are buying PRC via that exchange.

Yes you need a FIN number when selling.
However Direct Broking has automated it.
The FIN field shows: Encrypted FIN held
I have asked Computershare for my FIN.
Thanks .
OO

[777]

Yes you need a FIN number when selling.
However Direct Broking has automated it.
The FIN field shows: Encrypted FIN held
I have asked Computershare for my FIN.
Thanks .
OO

I use Direct Broking and did not know that it could be automated. Will have to look into it. They could also tell you the FIN then.

[Mysterybox]

I use Direct Broking and did not know that it could be automated. Will have to look into it. They could also tell you the FIN then.

DB won't be able to tell you your FIN, chances are for something like that no employee would be able to recover and read it to you.
If you were refering to CS then ignore this message :)

[Rabbi]

DB won't be able to tell you your FIN, chances are for something like that no employee would be able to recover and read it to you.
If you were refering to CS then ignore this message :)

Yes, they have a FIN in new Zealand to stop your wife from accessing your shares and running off with all your money.

Same with your TAB Account; you must have a password.

Hot Tip: Always remove paperwork from your pockets at the first opportunity and hide in a very safe place.;)

[blockhead]

Ist toe in the water for the options, buyer @ 03c for 100,000, no sellers showing yet

[swissboy]

What is the ticker for the options please anyone

[Sehnsucht888]

PRCOA

not much depth - seller at 20c....

[Hoop]

I've noticed that my DB portfolio has not yet added my options.
I also applied for extra which I managed to get 1/3 of.

Too find out how many PRCOA's and PRC head shares you have

click into this Computershare link (https://www-au.computershare.com/Investor/Security/PaymentHistory.asp?pageid=checkpayments)
Type in Pike River Coal
you will need to type in your CSH number and FIN.
Put in that visible security code
Tick the box
Click the sign in box...

[Billy Boy]

[quote=Hoop;252590]I've noticed that my DB portfolio has not yet added my options.
I also applied for extra which I managed to get 1/3 of.

I got the same...1/3
It may take some time for DB to list options in our PP. if they do !!
BB :)

[Balance]

Read the article in NBR on PRC and Liberty. No wonder the Indians decided not to put in any more money. Shudder.'

[Corporate]

Read the article in NBR on PRC and Liberty. No wonder the Indians decided not to put in any more money. Shudder.'

Balance could you provide a link to the article?

Thanks

[Balance]

Balance could you provide a link to the article?

Thanks

Unfortunately not available. Read it in print.

Guts of article - Liberty's interest rates have climbed 4% and will continue to climb from next year if PRC has problems. Production target now Nov 2009. PRC better produce or else, pay ever higher penalty interest rate and Liberty can demand money back.

[Xerof]

Typically old news from the NBR..... the 4% increase was announced weeks ago, and so was full production target period....so whats new?

[Dr_Who]

I actually think PRC is now undervalued compare to other commodity and coal stocks overseas. The exchange rate is also favourable. Capital raising is out of the way and coal price is set at over $125 for this year.

Of cos this will be in the med/long term portfolio. The real upside wont come until the coal comes out of the ground.

[Balance]

Typically old news from the NBR..... the 4% increase was announced weeks ago, and so was full production target period....so whats new?

Really? Wow - you guys are so well informed. My hat off to you.

[Balance]

I actually think PRC is now undervalued compare to other commodity and coal stocks overseas. The exchange rate is also favourable. Capital raising is out of the way and coal price is set at over $125 for this year.

Of cos this will be in the med/long term portfolio. The real upside wont come until the coal comes out of the ground.

Latest share registry makes interesting reading. The smart money leaving and reducing their exposure?

[Dr_Who]

Latest share registry makes interesting reading. The smart money leaving and reducing their exposure?

I can assure you the so called "SMART" money completely missed out on selling their shares during the commodity boom when PRC sp was over $2.00 and now the so called "SMART" money are selling at the bottom of the cycle. Not so smart after all in my books.

[Balance]

I can assure you the so called "SMART" money completely missed out on selling their shares during the commodity boom when PRC sp was over $2.00 and now the so called "SMART" money are selling at the bottom of the cycle. Not so smart after all in my books.

You are assuming that the smart money has just been sitting still? Or have they been selling to the ducks when the ducks were quacking at over $2.00, then buy back during PRC's numerous capital raisings and feeding the quacking ducks again whenever the ducks get excited by the company's numerous 'positive' announcements? At a point, the story comes to an end and that's why the Indians decided enough is enough?

[digger]

You are assuming that the smart money has just been sitting still? Or have they been selling to the ducks when the ducks were quacking at over $2.00, then buy back during PRC's numerous capital raisings and feeding the quacking ducks again whenever the ducks get excited by the company's numerous 'positive' announcements? At a point, the story comes to an end and that's why the Indians decided enough is enough?

Interest view points Balance,but you need to check out a few things. My summary in this finanical meltdown would be to first say the indians have problems of their own that is forcing them to forgo putting more money into Pike. Also the fact that Pike has scaled back oversubcribtion is very positive from the inside prespective. In fact i wondered why they did not go for more and pay off Liberty.The fact that they did not try says the management do not see further production delays.

[Balance]

Interest view points Balance,but you need to check out a few things. My summary in this finanical meltdown would be to first say the indians have problems of their own that is forcing them to forgo putting more money into Pike. Also the fact that Pike has scaled back oversubcribtion is very positive from the inside prespective. In fact i wondered why they did not go for more and pay off Liberty.The fact that they did not try says the management do not see further production delays.

Management have been so wrong on the production schedule - you still keen to take their word for it? Also, oversubscriptions less shortfall = $5.3m, hardly enough to pay Liberty's US$27.5m (NZ$48m) outstanding!

Meanwhile, news on coking coal is all bad. Examples today - Russia's Mechel's and Poland's coking coal producer Jastrzebska Spolka Weglowa both reporting huge drops in demand for coking coal.

News also emerging of big resources producers selling more of their output in the spot market. Not good for 2010 unless global demand for steel picks up dramatically.

Will PRC ever produce any coal?

Will they produce 1m tonnes a year?

Will they be able to sell at contracted prices?

Will the contracted prices hold at US$125/tonne given huge capacity and supply now available from cut-backs by the likes of Mechel?

PRC investors are buying hope really, not reality given PRC's track record to date imho. Meanwhile, one can buy coal and cashflow producing coal miners in Australia at non-demanding multiples.

Cheers.

Dis. Currently no position in PRC.

[Phaedrus]

In a small market like NZ, the movement of "smart" money into or out of a stock is often marked by "steps" in the OBV plot. As you can see, there are no obvious steps shown here. There is, however, a lovely clear classical example of a "Price/Volume climax". (These are often found at significant turning points.) PRC peaked at $2.45 on very heavy volume. A lot of people were getting out at the peak - and of course many others were getting in. One lot was pessimistic and smart, the other optimistic and dumb.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/PRC428.gif

Note that the OBV plot has now been flat-lining for 6 months while PRC has continued to fall. You can see from the volume histogram at the bottom of the chart that volumes are still generally higher on Down days (red bars). This is of course Bearish. A clear rise in the OBV would be a Buy signal - see how well the last one worked out!

In the course of the long PRC downtrend, there have been breaks of tentative trendlines (marked by blue dots). These have been on low volume and, lacking any confirmation, would/should have been ignored. Two more (unbroken) tentative trendlines are marked.

PRC is still in a "medium-term" downtrend and would need a Close of above 90 cents to end this.

[the machine]

looks like I come into the "optimistic and dumb" categery as held.

if we pick up the 500 extra shares applied for, will still only have 11,000 prc.

am looking for a long term revenue stream of maybe $1-2,000 pa as a dividend, in a different investment to my others.

M

[Balance]

looks like I come into the "optimistic and dumb" categery as held.

if we pick up the 500 extra shares applied for, will still only have 11,000 prc.

am looking for a long term revenue stream of maybe $1-2,000 pa as a dividend, in a different investment to my others.

M

The fat lady has not sung yet. Let's see what PRC produces WHEN it finally happens. If it's 1m tonnes per year, there is serious money to be made with PRC.

[Placebo]

Thank you Phaedrus. As they say a picture paints a thousand words and that graph is certainly a clear picture. Unfortunately the picture it brings to mind is Munch's The Scream... rather than anything prettier. Certainly for holders anyway...

[Balance]

http://business.brisbanetimes.com.au/business/world-metal-market-shudders-as-leader-posts-15b-loss-20090429-anen.html

Arcelor Mittal under pressure. Plenty of steel inventories around and plenty of spare capacity when demand picks up.

Hard to see coking coal prices maintaining $125 in 2010.

[the machine]

pike quarterly looks good, with first shipment planned to japan - 60,000t - prior to using hydro equipment.

wonder how long before pike apply for an extension of the mining lease - further into national park

M

[Dr_Who]

wonder how long before pike apply for an extension of the mining lease - further into national park

M

It will be god to see PRC get the tunneling sorted and the coal shipped before they venture into the wilderness.

[Balance]

It will be god to see PRC get the tunneling sorted and the coal shipped before they venture into the wilderness.

Freudian slip, Dr Who! GOD to see PRC ....? That could be the case!

[Balance]

Nice catch Balance.

Might it not be better if Moses were to be in the PRC corner, then maybe he could part the rocks for them? ;)

Trouble is that after parting the rocks, Moses might lead PRC and its shareholders into the wilderness and wander around aimlessly for 100 years before seeing the promised coal!

Shudder!

Meanwhile, another low cost top quality coking coal producer getting ready to mine 2m tonnes a year to supply the markets. As if the market needs new supply?

http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKLT5614320090429

[blockhead]

More than just passing interest in PRC and the options over last two days, not big volume but strong support, especially for the options

[Dr_Who]

This gotta be positive news for PRC and other coal companies. Here comes the Chinese. After they have secured the mineral miners, they will come after the energy miners.

Noble Group ups offer for Gloucester Coal

NOBLE Group has increased its cash offer for Gloucester Coal to $6 a share from $4.85 a share.

Noble called on the board of Gloucester to act immediately to declare the offer superior to a proposed merger deal with Whitehaven Coal .

“The clock is ticking on the Whitehaven merger and only the Gloucester directors have the ability to stop that clock and give their shareholders the chance to review our generous cash offer,” Noble Energy director Will Randall said in a statement.

Australia’s Takeovers Panel recently ruled that Gloucester’s planned merger with Whitehaven should remain conditional on no superior proposal being made until May 21.

Noble said its revised offer represents a 91 per cent premium to the price of Gloucester Coal shares immediately before the announcement of the Whitehaven merger in February.

[the machine]

see someone exercised 1037 options @ nz$1.25 - amazing

M

[nwood]

see someone exercised 1037 options @ nz$1.25 - amazing

M

Um.... Why??? LOL very strange

[Billy Boy]

One of those what listen to the Smoko Room B/S**T

[JoeBlogs]

Unbelievalbe :eek:

[Nitaa]

Trouble is that after parting the rocks, Moses might lead PRC and its shareholders into the wilderness and wander around aimlessly for 100 years before seeing the promised coal!

Shudder!

Meanwhile, another low cost top quality coking coal producer getting ready to mine 2m tonnes a year to supply the markets. As if the market needs new supply?

http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKLT5614320090429On the flip side is there are probably 5 times that are closing down because its not viable. Supply and demand has a rubber band effect on producers.

[Casa del Energia]

Speaking of smoko room talk. Had a conversation last week with one of the Pike River miners who happened to be in Reefton at the same time as me .. the shaft should be fixed by about now.

[blockhead]

Speaking of smoko room talk. Had a conversation last week with one of the Pike River miners who happened to be in Reefton at the same time as me .. the shaft should be fixed by about now.

Wouldnt surprise me a bit, as I said a few posts ago, more than just passing interest in PRC over the last days, has to be a reason, perhaps the angled shaft has already met the original vertical shaft.

[Sideshow Bob]

Speaking of smoko room talk. Had a conversation last week with one of the Pike River miners who happened to be in Reefton at the same time as me .. the shaft should be fixed by about now.

May be one of the reasons why have seen a solid lift in the share price in the past days??

[Dr_Who]

More good news for coking coal and PRC.

Chinese iron ore imports hit new record

http://business.smh.com.au/business/world-business/chinese-iron-ore-imports-hit-new-record-20090506-av6q.html

[bermuda]

More good news for coking coal and PRC.

Chinese iron ore imports hit new record

http://business.smh.com.au/business/world-business/chinese-iron-ore-imports-hit-new-record-20090506-av6q.html

That is an important post Doctor. Thanks. You can't argue with figures and the Chinese must have hated this release. Look for PRC to firm.

[the machine]

got my full allocation of extra shares - probably because such a low quantity of 241 x 2 - now have total 11,000 pike spread over 2 holdings

am so glad did not get a part refund, inturn donate a heap in bank fees and exchange rate losses since nz/au $ has shifted.

M

[Dr_Who]

PRC have broken through the 90 cents resistance.

[the machine]

an updated broker buy recommendation - sorry link does not work

bell potter have buy recommendation up to nz$1

M

[JoeBlogs]

Thanks for that 'the machine'

Things looking cautiously positive for PRC

On the downside (for PRC), better that expected NZ unemployment figures this morning will only add weight to the NZD which now looks set to test upside resistance if all goes well with the stress tests tonight.

Longer term though, I think NZD weakness will add weight to PRC and is begining to be reflected in the options.

[Dr_Who]

an updated broker buy recommendation

http://webmail.anl.com.au/Session/369-s4gN4Ayomudoy5joxXOQ/MessagePart/INBOX/149500-02-B/20090507065041591.pdf

M

The link does not work.

Can you please post the summary report?

[Casa del Energia]

May be one of the reasons why have seen a solid lift in the share price in the past days??

Probably - but just one of many factors. At any rate - I should have acted sooner on my own 'rumours' - But I'm now a first time holder @ 90c. Could have done it a little cheaper - - but what the heck, won't make a hoot of difference in six months.

[the machine]

The link does not work.

Can you please post the summary report?

sorry, did not read the link and of course it would not work

local broker bell potter have piggybacked on UBS updated buy recommendation nz$1 for pike- saying have lagged behind upswing in aussie miners over last 3 months

M

[777]

Up 10% today so far. Are brokers recommendations being believed these days?

[The BOWMAN]

I think a NZX inquiry is imminent. The price went up a lot in the last several days. Although I hold a lot of PRCs, I won't be happy if I am not equally informed as everybody else.

[LJB]

12% now. There's gotta be a reason. Maybe some good news for once. What do the filthy insiders know that we aren't privy to yet?

[Billy Boy]

Probably fixed the vent shaft :):):)

[Wiremu]

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/News/News-By-Industry/Indl-Goods--Svs/Recovery-seen-in-steel-sector/articleshow/4495880.cms

[Casa del Energia]

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/News/News-By-Industry/Indl-Goods--Svs/Recovery-seen-in-steel-sector/articleshow/4495880.cms

Yeah, there's been a steady trickle about steel in India and also China - coupled with the patched up vent - also green shoots turning up in the US etc etc - - then of course the sp was just waiting to bounce. Insider stuff? Nah.

[The BOWMAN]

Yeah, there's been a steady trickle about steel in India and also China - coupled with the patched up vent - also green shoots turning up in the US etc etc - - then of course the sp was just waiting to bounce. Insider stuff? Nah.

Was there any announcement about the vent is patched up?

Steel price up? Not seeing the same movement in STU, FBU etc. Not convincing.

sp waiting to bounce? More like people speculate and betting on insider trading.

PRC has the track record of doing this, when the shaft collapsed, the market wasn't told until several days later.

[Billy Boy]

- - then of course the sp was just waiting to bounce.
Insider stuff? Nah.
I agree CdE...
Pike say they will up and running by end of May. And I can see no
good reason to disbelieve them. It was bad luck re the rock fall, but
S**t Happens, and it can/could happen again.
Some talk outta China as too them importing coal again.
India ramping up also, and who's PRC biggest share holder. They are
going to buy from pike first one would think.
Right now BB is a very happy camper ( X 3 )
cheers to all BB :) :) :) :D

[the machine]

I think a NZX inquiry is imminent. The price went up a lot in the last several days. Although I hold a lot of PRCs, I won't be happy if I am not equally informed as everybody else.


the broker buy recommendation I saw earlier in week had pike as a buy up to nz$1 and thats basically where it finished

M

[NOCASH]

I used my student overdraft and brought $1,000 worth of PRC at 90cents, paying a fee of 2$ per month for the admin fee, Interest Free!

[boysy]

i hope for your sake nocash that prc can actually get the tunnel producing coal. They have many hoops to jump through before they get on track to the estimates they have released to the market. Still plenty of risks and other cheap producing miners out there than to bet heavily on PRC.

[AMR]

There are better things to buy, especially with a student loan overdraft!

Whatever happened to all your other money you got from RPM?

[Oiler]

i hope for your sake nocash that prc can actually get the tunnel producing coal. They have many hoops to jump through before they get on track to the estimates they have released to the market. Still plenty of risks and other cheap producing miners out there than to bet heavily on PRC.

well said boysy. PRC is NOT out of the woods yet. They are working in a very fractured fault. Nothing that time and money cant fix though. Not for me :eek:

[Casa del Energia]

I agree CdE...
Pike say they will up and running by end of May. And I can see no
good reason to disbelieve them. It was bad luck re the rock fall, but
S**t Happens, and it can/could happen again.
Some talk outta China as too them importing coal again.
India ramping up also, and who's PRC biggest share holder. They are
going to buy from pike first one would think.
Right now BB is a very happy camper ( X 3 )
cheers to all BB :) :) :) :D

Indeed - They announce their production date, you have to put credence to it. You can't disregard all risk - it is an underground cola mine - - but there are more indications than ever that the mine is ready to roll (e.g. - this from the Westport News) - - -

Pike output to rise
Pike River Coal should hit full production by the end of
this year, according to its quarterly activities report.
The miner, which suffered a setback in February
when a rockfall blocked a ventilation shaft, said the
arrival of hydro monitor equipment from Australia would
boost production to one million tonnes a year by the . nal
quarter of this year.
The hydro equipment uses high pressure water to cut
more than 2000 tonnes of coal a day.
Its . rst export shipment of 60,000 tonnes to Japan is
due in the July-September quarter.
Coal production, which was held up by the rock fall,
restarted this month, although repairs are set to continue
until the end of this month.

[The BOWMAN]

I think a NZX inquiry is imminent. The price went up a lot in the last several days. Although I hold a lot of PRCs, I won't be happy if I am not equally informed as everybody else.

NZX queried them on the same day I posted this. PRC's response says the price increase is in line with other resource stocks on the ASX. Didn't mention the shaft though? I take it is still not fixed? That would be behind schedule wouldn't it? I need to go back to read their announcement before.

[RossT]

NZX queried them on the same day I posted this. PRC's response says the price increase is in line with other resource stocks on the ASX. Didn't mention the shaft though? I take it is still not fixed? That would be behind schedule wouldn't it? I need to go back to read their announcement before.

The original ann said the end of May to complete shaft fix.

[The BOWMAN]

The original ann said the end of May to complete shaft fix.

"In the interim, a new ‘slimline’ hole has been drilled and is being reamed out to 600mm diameter to provide enough fresh air to allow a continuous miner machine to operate at the start of May 2009. This hole, through extremely hard rock, will be steel lined and connected to an underground fan to provide air to the working faces, until the shaft is fully restored"

Has this hole been finished? There is simply not enough information in my opinion.

[JoeBlogs]

I agree - so they've drilled the slimline hole but are still reaming? Or are they drilling and reaming, or reaming and drilling???? Perhaps it's us getting reamed, or drilled - or are we just getting screwed........:D (or shafted)

[Balance]

Good call by those who braved the ventilation collapse rights issue and bought.

Well done - he who dares, wins!

[Mr Tommy]

Heres the link to Westport newspaper - article at bottom right.

"Coal production, which was held up by the rock fall,
restarted this month, although repairs are set to continue
until the end of this month."

http://westportnews.co.nz/monday.pdf

[Phaedrus]

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/PRC512.gif

What we have been observing here is a virtual replay of when PRC last gave a Buy signal (over a year ago). Because the downtrend was decelerating, multiple trendlines were required, so there has been more than one trendline break. The first 2 were discounted on the basis that they were unconfirmed by any other indicators. Not so the third.
See the marked volume increase on UP days (green bars) around both BUY signals.
Observe how prior to this upsurge the OBV was flat and had been so for many months.
Note the clear, unmistakable rise in OBV that ended these lengthy flat periods, giving BUY signals at the same time as the trendline break BUY signals.
This OBV plot and its attendant signals would be impossible to misinterpret - wouldn't it?
This is an excellent example of the sheer folly of buying stocks and holding them regardless of trend.
It is also an excellent example of the efficacy of TA, and trend-following. It would be all but impossible to better the timing of those buy and sell signals.

[The BOWMAN]

Heres the link to Westport newspaper - article at bottom right.

"Coal production, which was held up by the rock fall,
restarted this month, although repairs are set to continue
until the end of this month."

http://westportnews.co.nz/monday.pdf

Thanks, Mr Tommy. I'll need to read westportnews now. It seems to held a lot more info than NZX!

[Mr Tommy]

COAL PRODUCTION UNDERWAY AGAIN

Pike River Coal has put its first heavy coal cutting machine back into action following
completion of a ‘slimline’ ventilation hole to bring air 100 metres underground.

This is the first step in providing a strong air flow from the surface to the pit bottom
for miners and machines, to vent gases, and allow for the main production ramp-up of
premium hard coking coal to start.

The slimline ventilation hole has been reamed through extremely hard rock to 600 mm
diameter, lined with steel casing and connected to an underground fan to provide air,
whilst the main shaft is fully restored.

Restoration of the main shaft is progressing to schedule. A specially-trained mining team
from Australia, working around the clock, is constructing a 2.5 metre square Alimak raise
(an angled bypass round the blocked main ventilation shaft).

The Alimak raise is being constructed upwards using explosives to blast approximately 1.2
metres of rock per day. As the Alimak shaft is created rockbolts and mesh are used to
secure the shaft walls and maintain stability. Concrete is also sprayed onto the walls of
the Alimak raised shaft to ensure a “life-of-mine” support standard.

At 18 May 2009 the Alimak raise was up to 31 metres (58% complete) with completion of the
remaining 22 metres on track for the end of May 2009.

The first heavy coal cutting machine, a roadheader, now has the job of cutting roadways
into the main Brunner coal seam, initially to create space for other mining equipment.
The in-seam drilling unit has been re-established underground and re-commenced its
drilling programme to map out the coal seam ahead of roadway development.

The two continuous miners will start up as soon as ventilation from the main shaft is
restored.

Pike River Coal’s chief executive, Gordon Ward, says “the slimline ventilation hole and
the Alimak raise will provide the necessary air for all mining operations and we expect
to have all three mining machines cutting coal by early June”.

[the machine]

good to see the shaft has helped the sp a bit after news came out

M

[Placebo]

Good news indeed for we optimistic holders. Now... if they can only produce some of the black stuff, we will actually have a working mine and prospects of making some cash!

Goodbye to speculation, won't that be amazing? Or will most holders now abandon it once the speculation has been removed?

[LJB]

For those of us willing to buy and hold PRC through to the eventual recovery in demand for steel, it may very well be one of the most fundementally sensible investments we ever make. However, the gloss on the coat of a faster horse in the interim may prevent most of us from saying "I told you so." to the doubting Thomas's of the present.

[corporateraider]

For those of us willing to buy and hold PRC through to the eventual recovery in demand for steel, it may very well be one of the most fundementally sensible investments we ever make. However, the gloss on the coat of a faster horse in the interim may prevent most of us from saying "I told you so." to the doubting Thomas's of the present.

But if this horse runs for 17 years?

[the machine]

But if this horse runs for 17 years?

and according to bloomberg article they are almost off and racing in india:


Steel Demand in India to Accelerate Following Polls (Update1)
Share | Email | Print | A A A

By Debarati Roy

May 19 (Bloomberg) -- India’s steel demand will accelerate this year as the incoming Congress party-led government increases investments in infrastructure, following its best showing in an election in two decades, JSW Steel Ltd. said.

“The steel industry’s performance is dependent on how the economy grows and now with a stable government more thrust will be placed on infrastructure,” Joint Managing Director Seshagiri Rao said yesterday in an interview in Mumbai. “Those programs announced earlier will now be accelerated.” Orders from the construction industry will drive a 6 percent gain in overall sales this fiscal year, up from 1.3 percent last year, he said.

Indian steelmakers are expecting Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s re-election to spur investment in roads, ports and bridges and continue a rural jobs program that lifted demand in villages and towns. Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd. said it expects as much as $1.5 billion of new power-equipment orders in the first quarter as pending government projects are cleared.

“Demand for construction grade steel will jump as we expect investments to increase sharply in infrastructure,” said Bharath S., an analyst at Sundaram BNP Paribas Mutual Fund.

Operating profit at Mumbai-based JSW, India’s third-biggest steel producer, will improve this quarter from 3.57 billion rupees ($75 million) in the previous three months, Rao said, without giving specific numbers. Operating profit was 8.9 billion rupees in the fiscal first quarter last year.

JSWshares fell 3.4 percent to 471.25 rupees at the close of trading today in Mumbai. The key Sensitive Index fell 0.5 percent to 14,213.73.

Stimulus Package

Congress won the most seats in an election since 1991, clearing the ruling party to form a government without needing the support of communist parties that frustrated plans to entice foreign investment in Singh’s first five-year term.

The government had announced three stimulus packages since December and spending worth $8.95 billion this fiscal year to build networks of roads, phones, electricity and irrigation.

“There won’t be other pulls and pressures on the government so they will be focusing now on growth and governance,” Rao said.

JSW’s crude steel production climbed 60 percent last month as sales of construction grade products surged 78 percent.

The company reported a fourth-quarter group loss after the global recession eroded demand in the U.S. The net loss was 399.3 million rupees, compared with a profit of 3.57 billion rupees a year ago. Sales fell 16 percent to 35.7 billion rupees.

U.S. Shutdown

JSW plans to shut one of its three plants in U.S. as demand has collapsed in that market, Rao said. The company will decide on the shutdown by the end of the month and restart only after it accumulates orders, he said.

The company’s three factories in the U.S. employed 950 workers when JSW acquired the unit in 2007 for $810 million from Jindal Saw Ltd. A 1.2 million ton steel-plate mill, which could be shut, employs 300 people, Rao said.

“In hindsight, this seems like a bad purchase,” JSW Steel Managing Director Sajjan Jindal had said on May 7, while announcing fourth-quarter earnings. “It would be difficult to get a buyer even if we decide to sell the unit.”

Inventories worth $58 million were written down during the March quarter in the U.S. and demand there remains weak, Jindal had said. The three plants are running at 15 percent of their installed capacity.

To contact the reporter on this story: Debarati Roy in Mumbai at droy5@bloomberg.net.


M

[thomaswlg]

hey everyone, im a bit of a newbie to sharetrading, what does PPP mean?
and how do the old wise ones think the share price will react now that they have started mining?

[Balance]

Directive from Chinese government for their banks to stop lending to steel mills due to over production.

China not giving ground in iron ore talks
May 20, 2009 - 3:50PM
China's steelmakers have not given any ground in benchmark iron ore price talks, an industry executive said on Wednesday, denying reports that they could soften their insistence on a 40 per cent price cut.

China's steel industry, the world's biggest, traditionally sets a global benchmark each year after lengthy talks with the three miners that dominate the iron ore trade: Vale, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton.

"The position of the Chinese side has never changed,'' Shan Shanghua, secretary general of the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA), told Reuters in a telephone interview. "Any news about our changes was speculation.''

Shan denied media reports on Wednesday that CISA could accept a price cut by between 30 per cent and 35 per cent.

China's steel industry has been reiterating its view that term iron ore prices should fall by at least 40 per cent to 2007/08 levels, pressuring miners to accept deep price cuts, as steel firms struggle with faltering demand.

"We insist on three principles during the negotiation: the relation between the supply and demand, the balance of production costs between the two sides and the balance of rational profits between the two sides,'' Shan said.

"They are our principles. It is not sustainable if iron ore producers keep a high profit margin but steel mills suffer losses. It is common sense,'' he said.

Shan said he agreed with a comment by Baosteel's chairman over the weekend that China's steel industry may post a loss for 2009 because of overproduction, adding that steel mills must cut output as the economy has not bottomed out.

"So far we are producing at a rate equivalent to an annual output of 520 million tonnes, compared with the target set by the industry ministry of 470 million tonnes. We will see a huge stockpile,'' he said.

China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a notice calling on commercial banks to restrict or cut off credit to steel enterprises that were ``blindly expanding in disregard of the market''.

The notice said steel output was "seriously oversupplied'' and imports of iron ore were also showing excessive levels of growth, creating massive risks for the industry.

"Why these mills can build up stockpiles without concern about cash flow is because they have bank loans, and we want to cut the chain,'' Shan said.

[Sideshow Bob]

hey everyone, im a bit of a newbie to sharetrading, what does PPP mean?
and how do the old wise ones think the share price will react now that they have started mining?

PPP = Pan Pacific Petroleum, which has 10% of Tui, and NZO owns 12.5%. NZO also own a shareholding in PPP, and are the largest shareholder in Pike River.

With the shareprice, generally you see the market reaction before the announcement.......on a more serious note, that is what most of the action has been over the last month, and now waiting for it to ramp up and the first shipment to turn the hard coal into hard cash. I guess this can only be positive, when it finally happens.

[Sehnsucht888]

hey everyone, im a bit of a newbie to sharetrading, what does PPP mean?
and how do the old wise ones think the share price will react now that they have started mining?

PPP = Pan Pacific Petroleum, which has 10% of Tui, and NZO owns 12.5%. NZO also own a shareholding in PPP, and are the largest shareholder in Pike River.

With the shareprice, generally you see the market reaction before the announcement.......on a more serious note, that is what most of the action has been over the last month, and now waiting for it to ramp up and the first shipment to turn the hard coal into hard cash. I guess this can only be positive, when it finally happens.

The only mention of PPP in the last 5 pages of PRC is boysy disclaimer of holding it...

thomaswlg - where did you pull that reference from - some might think you are simply taking the pi ss

[srowe]

I think he may have meant prc Pike river coal since they have just started mineing

[Sehnsucht888]

I think he may have meant prc Pike river coal since they have just started mineing

I don't think so... That translaction is the Threads title.

[Placebo]

hey everyone, im a bit of a newbie to sharetrading, what does PPP mean?
and how do the old wise ones think the share price will react now that they have started mining?

Anyone here consider themselves both old and wise?

I am old... ;)

However, as they say, ageing is compulsory, maturing is optional...

[beacon]

Hear, hear. I think I am getting there too, Placebo - hopefully in both arenas.

[wbosher]

They say that the average life expectancy for a male is the early 70's. That makes me middle aged!!! God, that crept up quick.

Don't know about the "wise" or "mature" part though. ;)

[Placebo]

Flippancy aside I haven't really answered thomaswlg's question.

The answer is, it might (holders certainly hope so).

Then again, the market may have already priced this in, so maybe not.

Clear enough? ;)

I wouldn't imagine we will see much more price movement until 1: a shipment actually leaves the mine and has a customer, or 2: Something happens with the international price.

Don't rule out further setbacks either. There's been one rockfall that's delayed production, nothing to say there won't be another. Is a risky business.

[srowe]

Not to mention a rockfall in the market in general

[thomaswlg]

@sideshow bob, cheers, really helpfull. :D
@sehnsucht, hey, woh, calm down, i honestly didnt know and was just curious.
@placebo, compared to me you are easily old and wise. And thanks, great help.

[Billy Boy]

Am watching the weather charts. (not from NZTV they are a joke)
Ozzy is getting hammered from the East and the West. All this is
pooring water into the interior.
Therefore is might happen that mines in ozz could get flooded again.
Be watching posters and please report back.
Cheers BB :)
PS Skifield passes and bookings up 50% (yes 50%).
Good Snow falls on Remarks & Coronet & Cadrona & Hutt etc...
Accom industry smiling here in Qtown

[blockhead]

Could be a bit of prime real estate available just down in front of you from tomorrow I think BB, if you want to diversify.

[Billy Boy]

Could be a bit of prime real estate available just down in front of you from tomorrow I think BB, if you want to diversify.
Spelling Blocky !!!
"primed"

:D BB

[Sehnsucht888]

Holy - serious Buy depth...

72,620 1 135
413,677 1 130
225,000 1 124

[nwood]

Something we don't know about.......?

[gazprom1]

NOG and PRC have done the same thing at the close.....

[Casa del Energia]

NOG and PRC have done the same thing at the close.....

Just 'one of those things' - I was watching FBU do the same thing - and there certainly can be no connection. Scanned all over the place for rumours: nothing - must be just happy moods coming up to QBW (?)

[neopoleII]

last weeks lotto winner buying a portfolio with the help of a broker?

[The BOWMAN]

The option didn't move much though. Grabbed 100,000 PRCOA at 26c at the end. It got to have some substance behind it.

[winner69]

The option didn't move much though. Grabbed 100,000 PRCOA at 26c at the end. It got to have some substance behind it.


Good call Mr Bowman .... at the 45% volatility of the heads implied consistently in the pricing of the OAs to date they should be 36 cents ..... if priced at the current volatility of the heads somewhere near 44-46 cents

Look forward to Tuesday eh .... good news to be announced ,,,, or heads shareprice collapse .... or something else?

[Sehnsucht888]

The only problem with the big buy, is the big spread left... Lets hope it fills the right way.. (up)

[patrick]

4.55pm:Is this yellow stuff on the mine floor what i think it is?

[blockhead]

Yippee the MUTHA lode !!

Right here under a little rock overhang !!!

[patrick]

Indeed, what other explanation for the 3 Armourguard vans turning in off the Blackball road?

[corporateraider]

Not the national conference at the Blackball pub?

[corporateraider]

It wasn't the national convention at the Blackball pub?

[croesus]

Its not the Blackball rd....the Pike River Road.....is further along on your left... if one is heading from Greymouth... pst Blackball ... North to Ikamatua... the only CoalMine at Blackball is at Roa...3km up the road from Blackball past the turnoff to the Croesus track...

cheers

[corporateraider]

Thanks Croesus for shedding some light on that. Maybe you can clear up that story on the yellow stuff. I heard that someone in their hurry to get away for a long week-ends fishing at Lake Hayes had discarded their high -vis vest. And maybe the fishing is better closer to the coast?

[patrick]

Yes, i directed them from Blackball Road to the road into the mine. No thanks for that, just waved the shotguns in my face.
Do armourguard normally have guns?
Is that relevant?
Perhaps someone from AG could advise.

[corporateraider]

Patrick they may well do. I observed the guys who came to collect cash from us this morning and one of them looked as though he had a gun jammed into the front of his trousers

[Nitaa]

Patrick they may well do. I observed the guys who came to collect cash from us this morning and one of them looked as though he had a gun jammed into the front of his trousersWas that a gun in his pocket or was he just pleased to see you?

Patrick. Jump the gun (no pun intended) arent you. All that happened was that someone jumped all over nzo and prc late on friday.

[QOH]

4.55pm:Is this yellow stuff on the mine floor what i think it is?

Let's keep this rumour going for a while.

[Billy Boy]

Come on you lot.... wake up.
It's what they found in the Pike Creek !!!
And guess who owns the prospecting and mineral rights !!!
Well it sure aint the Pope. (yet)
BB :)

[corporateraider]

So yellow stuff in the river too! Well in this weather its likely to be someone having a slash upstream. It would damn near freeze and settle.

[duncan macgregor]

Let's keep this rumour going for a while. Yellow stuff floating about in water is pine pollen. Bet the place has a pine plantation close by. If its on the mine floor then it obviously was sucked in by the air conditioning which unlike most wont filter the air. Dont like to spoil the dream but gold is never up to now been found in a coal mine. The one worry about this projrct is it has to pass that bastard warfy union at littleton before it leaves the country. Macdunk

[Bilo]

Yellow stuff floating about in water is pine pollen. Bet the place has a pine plantation close by. If its on the mine floor then it obviously was sucked in by the air conditioning which unlike most wont filter the air. Dont like to spoil the dream but gold is never up to now been found in a coal mine. The one worry about this projrct is it has to pass that bastard warfy union at littleton before it leaves the country. Macdunk

Thats a cheap shot at an industrious sector of the economy McD. Perhaps intended as a downramp for the little kiwi battlers digging black gold on the west coast approaching their first shipment?

[Hoop]

Yellow stuff floating about in water is pine pollen. Bet the place has a pine plantation close by. If its on the mine floor then it obviously was sucked in by the air conditioning which unlike most wont filter the air. Dont like to spoil the dream but gold is never up to now been found in a coal mine. The one worry about this projrct is it has to pass that bastard warfy union at littleton before it leaves the country. Macdunk

Pine trees drop their pollen in mid - spring.

[corporateraider]

Maybe the aussies are onto the story of the gold? A nation that continues to think that Shane Warne is a great goy surely could believe anything?

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Have"nt you sharetraders heard of the old West Coast practice of salting

[blockhead]

Notice a smack on the back of the hand for Pike from the ASX, late notification of Directors interest.

[blockhead]

And NZX wants to know why the price has jumped as well, could be the same question asked of NZO I would think as well

[nwood]

Response says no material information

[troyvdh]

..im sorry..i cant understand.....did Mr Orr sell a million shares or what.....they should publish those notices in swahili....at least then we would have a chance.

oops....sorry...wrong thread.

[The BOWMAN]

last weeks lotto winner buying a portfolio with the help of a broker?

I thought it was some kind of Haire - FPA deal going on. Chinese company buying into Pike River Coal. Now I start to agree with neopoleII, could be that guy who took 16 million from lotto couple of weeks back.

[JoeBlogs]

Just like a lot of shares end of Friday, end of month tweaking by fund managers.

[Nitaa]

A late jump in Pike River Coal's share price on Friday appears to have been caused by a one-off buyer keen to get shares, sharebroker Grant Williamson says.

Shares in the West Coast mining company rose 13.8 per cent on Friday, closing 15 cents up at $1.23 after the trading of 3.3 million shares.

The New Zealand Exchange said it was a big increase from the usual volume and asked the company if it knew of undisclosed information that could have influenced trading.

Managing director Gordon Ward told the NZX yesterday the company was not aware of any material information that could explain the jump. He said the firm announced on May 18 that coal production was under way again and restoration of the main vent was progressing to schedule.

Mr Williamson, director of sharebroker Hamilton Hindin Greene, said there appeared to be a one-off buyer late on Friday afternoon who wanted the stock then and there and was prepared to pay 7c to 8c more to get them. Since then the price has dropped to $1.19 , but was still more than 50 per cent higher than on April 29. A similar query of Pike River Coal was made by the Australia Securities Exchange in early May after a 39 per cent increase in its share price in one week to A$0.85.

Mr Williamson thinks the price will stay at the existing level until investors were confident the firm was producing coal efficiently.

[The BOWMAN]

I thought it was some kind of Haire - FPA deal going on. Chinese company buying into Pike River Coal. Now I start to agree with neopoleII, could be that guy who took 16 million from lotto couple of weeks back.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/2466144/Jump-in-share-price-down-to-one-off-buyer

It's official now, it is him!

[Wilkins_Micawber]

From the PRC press release on 18th May...
"PRC: Coal Production Underway Again
At 18 May 2009 the Alimak raise was up to 31 metres (58% complete) with
completion of the remaining 22 metres on track for the end of May 2009 ...
The two continuous miners will start up as soon as ventilation from the main
shaft is restored ...
Pike River Coal's chief executive, Gordon Ward, says "the slimline
ventilation hole and the Alimak raise will provide the necessary air for all
mining operations and we expect to have all three mining machines cutting
coal by early June."

Isn't completion of the Alimak fairly important to getting significant production started using the continuous miners - since it was scheduled (or on track) for completion at end of May should there be an update due advising either of a delay or of completion of the Alimak.

[BWR]

Wilkins Micawber,

We are due any day soon for an announcement on the ventilation shaft restoration project. As advised to the NZX earlier this week, in response to their please explain the share price inquiry, the restoration is proceeding according to schedule. The schedule covers a three month long project, and includes the installation of ventilation fans as well as the Alimak raise.

It is expected that the restoration project will be completed very soon, and all three mining machines in operation shortly thereafter within the "early June" timeframe. An announcement will be made as soon as the restoration project has been completed.

[The BOWMAN]

PRC has a shocking record of information disclosure. I am very unhappy about that.

[Xerof]

Which part of


An announcement will be made as soon as the restoration project has been completed.

don't you understand??

[The BOWMAN]

Xerof.

I invest my capital in the business, I need to know how the business is run at all times.

PRC is not in the normal operation mode. The business is having some issues at the moment, we have the rights to know how the issues are addressed. As Wilkins_Micawber points out, there are too many questions about the operation at the moment since the last announcement.

Is the Alimak raise completed?
How many mining machines are in operation?
What does the restoration project include?
When will it finish?
How much has been spent so far, still under the budget as indicated at the time of rights issue?

I bet you have not got any clue at all.

"An announcement will be made as soon as the restoration project has been completed (or fully collapsed or blown out the budget 10 times)" is not acceptable.

[the machine]

well its good that pike are monitoring this thread anyhow, given BWR response.

I still view pike as a longterm cash cow, paying heathy dividends for many years to come

M

[Wilkins_Micawber]

Wilkins Micawber,

We are due any day soon for an announcement on the ventilation shaft restoration project. As advised to the NZX earlier this week, in response to their please explain the share price inquiry, the restoration is proceeding according to schedule. The schedule covers a three month long project, and includes the installation of ventilation fans as well as the Alimak raise.

It is expected that the restoration project will be completed very soon, and all three mining machines in operation shortly thereafter within the "early June" timeframe. An announcement will be made as soon as the restoration project has been completed.

Thanks for the update, BWR. However, my point is that (to me) this issue is really about the Alimak (i.e. the shaft collapse and fixing it to the point it won't happen again) not about installation of further equipment. Has the Alimak shaft actually been completed yet? Would it hurt (or take much) to announce it the market when the Alimak is completed? Thanks :)

[Nitaa]

Xerof.

I invest my capital in the business, I need to know how the business is run at all times.

PRC is not in the normal operation mode. The business is having some issues at the moment, we have the rights to know how the issues are addressed. As Wilkins_Micawber points out, there are too many questions about the operation at the moment since the last announcement.

Is the Alimak raise completed?
How many mining machines are in operation?
What does the restoration project include?
When will it finish?
How much has been spent so far, still under the budget as indicated at the time of rights issue?

I bet you have not got any clue at all.

"An announcement will be made as soon as the restoration project has been completed (or fully collapsed or blown out the budget 10 times)" is not acceptable.You raise some valid points. I guess the question is how far does one company go. Minimum disclosure i believe is anything that may (not necesessary will) have a material impact on the sp. To be brutally honest I think PRC can do much better and its good PR to do so. So the question remains, how far do they go? Does a shutdown of production for 1 day constitute an announcement? Does 1 week? So on and so on.

Here would be my sugestion to PRC. Don't just do the bare minimum in disclosure, do more than that and find a sensible ground on how far you go. Finally, do keep your website updated AT ALL TIMES. It is unprofessional for any listed company let alone one the size of PRC not to do so. Your website is the window for investors to gain a first impression of how well orgainsed your company is.

discl. hold only through nzo

[Billy Boy]

Good post NITA
Here Here I say
BB :)

[fabs]

Hey you Guys, give the Insiders, Gamblers and Traders a chance

[Placebo]

I find it a bit odd, since when the drilling was actually taking place last year, the company was reasonably forthcoming with reports on progress and forecasts of completion etc.

Perhaps a weekly update might be in order? Or maybe those millions in capital they just raised won't stretch to the PR budget.

I wonder if BWR will disclose their connection to the company. Clearly someone closely involved, but who ?

[COLIN]

I wonder if BWR will disclose their connection to the company. Clearly someone closely involved, but who ?

I think you will find, if you look back, that BWR has never hidden the fact that he works for them. He has been very helpful in the past (going back to NZO days, pre-PRC) and has been very careful not to divulge market-sensitive information which has not been made available to the public at large.

[Nitaa]

I find it a bit odd, since when the drilling was actually taking place last year, the company was reasonably forthcoming with reports on progress and forecasts of completion etc.

Perhaps a weekly update might be in order? Or maybe those millions in capital they just raised won't stretch to the PR budget.

I wonder if BWR will disclose their connection to the company. Clearly someone closely involved, but who ?Placebo. Ive always like your post but not the latest. Any inuendos or speculation of this nature wont resolve any issues. It will only prevent the likes of Brian from participating in this forum.

I have no problem in talking facts good, bad or otherwise but you need to support it. Just my opinion and not intended as an attack on you personally and as i have mentioned I have valued your input for a long time.

[Sehnsucht888]

They could provide weekly updates on progress of building a flu, but its not really neccessary. Its an item of work, oif there are issues, they will fix them, if they require disclosure they will.

They have announced coal is back being extracted, and that a report will be made once there is something to really report.
Constant market notices saying little, but repeating that progress is continuing seem pointless. Its not like a drill when its nice to know that we are getting nearer and nearer to pay dirt, or a duster.

There was a lot of complaint a couple months ago about the lack of news, and that thy sky must have fallen, while they were simply working a task through to completion, and reporting the milestones.

relax..

[Wilkins_Micawber]

They could provide weekly updates on progress of building a flu, but its not really neccessary. Its an item of work, oif there are issues, they will fix them, if they require disclosure they will.

They have announced coal is back being extracted, and that a report will be made once there is something to really report.
Constant market notices saying little, but repeating that progress is continuing seem pointless. Its not like a drill when its nice to know that we are getting nearer and nearer to pay dirt, or a duster.

There was a lot of complaint a couple months ago about the lack of news, and that thy sky must have fallen, while they were simply working a task through to completion, and reporting the milestones.

relax..

I kind of agree with this - but like I said, it's about the Alimak. There has been a significant delay and substantial cost (esp the lost earnings at $300 per tonne) to this project from the collapse of the shaft, so completion of the Alimak (i.e. completion of the ventilation shaft) is surely a significant event. Personally, I don't care that much about the subsequent installation of ventillation fans as I imagine it should be rather unlikely to cause problems (least not of the magnitude of the shaft collapse). To me, completion of the Alimak is a significant event and warrants an update to the market.

I am relaxed, but the SHOULD be an update on the Alimak by now, since PRC earlier stated it would be completed by end of May (nearly a week ago).

[Unicorn]

I find it a bit odd, since when the drilling was actually taking place last year, the company was reasonably forthcoming with reports on progress and forecasts of completion etc.

Perhaps a weekly update might be in order? Or maybe those millions in capital they just raised won't stretch to the PR budget.

I wonder if BWR will disclose their connection to the company. Clearly someone closely involved, but who ?

BWR is Brian Roulston, PRC Company Secretary. He has always been very helpful in providing information when it has been possible.

I agree that PRC disclosures are less than they should be. Particularly around the time of the shaft collapse, which I think was a significant event due to the huge impact on forecast cashflow, reading about it in a local paper first is not my idea of adequate disclosure. NZX seems to accept that PRC meets their required standards, so investors need to live with this level of information or (like me) find other companies to invest in.

[Nitaa]

BWR is Brian Roulston, PRC Company Secretary. He has always been very helpful in providing information when it has been possible.

I agree that PRC disclosures are less than they should be. Particularly around the time of the shaft collapse, which I think was a significant event due to the huge impact on forecast cashflow, reading about it in a local paper first is not my idea of adequate disclosure. NZX seems to accept that PRC meets their required standards, so investors need to live with this level of information or (like me) find other companies to invest in.totally agree. This was poor and in my opnion probably warranted a trading halt once the colapse became known. The trading halt is then lifted once they have assessed the extent of the colapse and the impact it would have on PRC financially.

[Billy Boy]

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN0422428620090604

[JoeBlogs]

It's all falling into place. Big week comming up.....

[Corporate]

Has anyone done any calculations on expected NPAT once pike is in full productions 1mtpa?

What PE is reasonable for a HCC company with 20 year mine life?

[nwood]

VENTILATION TO PIKE RIVER MINE FULLY RESTORED

Pike River Coal’s main air ventilation shaft blockage has been successfully bypassed,
ventilation fully restored and heavy coal cutting machines are now working to build coal
production.

Chief Executive Gordon Ward says “the Alimak raise was painstaking work but the bypass
was completed on time and within budget over the weekend and production can now push
ahead”.

The main 108 metre air shaft was completed in January 2009 but then blocked by a rock
fall at its lower level before reinforcing bolt-and-mesh had reached down that far.

Pike River Coal plugged the rock fall in February 2009 with concrete poured down from the
top of the shaft, commissioned the drilling of a 600 mm ‘slimline’ air vent to get some
air down to pit bottom, and brought in an Alimak team from Australia to work
round-the-clock to cut a bypass shaft around the blockage.

The ‘slimline’ hole was completed in mid-May, providing enough air for the roadheader
machine to resume cutting coal and the main shaft bypass holed though yesterday and the
shaft top fan was able to start exhausting air up the shaft.

The roadheader has been joined by one of two continuous miners, with the second due to go
into operation shortly.

With flow through ventilation restored to pit bottom, final works can now be completed on
the coal crusher and the water-fed flumes in pit bottom and the slurry pipeline which,
from mid-June, will carry the coal 10 kilometres down to the Coal Preparation Plant for
processing and stockpiling.

Mr Ward says Pike River Coal, with all its key infrastructure in place, is on schedule to
send its first export shipment of 60,000 tonnes to Japan in the July-September quarter of
this year.

The mine is expected to reach its full production rate in the final October-December
quarter of this year when roadways in the coal seam have been opened up by the heavy
cutting machines to provide access for high pressure water cannons to start blasting coal
out of the seam at the rate of up to 2,000 tonnes a day.

[Xerof]

Has anyone done any calculations on expected NPAT once pike is in full productions 1mtpa?

What PE is reasonable for a HCC company with 20 year mine life?

Send an email to john.kidd@mcdouallstuart.co.nz and he will happily send you his latest report, which if I recall correctly, should have (his view) of the details you are seeking.


It's all falling into place

Joe, thats an unfortunate turn of phrase for a mining coy...:D:D

[Placebo]

Placebo. Ive always like your post but not the latest. Any inuendos or speculation of this nature wont resolve any issues. It will only prevent the likes of Brian from participating in this forum.

I have no problem in talking facts good, bad or otherwise but you need to support it. Just my opinion and not intended as an attack on you personally and as i have mentioned I have valued your input for a long time.

Hi Nita,

Thanks for the kind words and I am sorry if my reference to BWR came across as a slight on their integrity - I meant no such inference so apologise if any offence has been taken.

As a relative newcomer to PRC (only a year or two!) I had not come across BWR's posts previously, but it was clear they had a connection to the company from their recent post. Unicorn has subsequently clarified who this person is and that his input is long-standing. My ignorance.

I do see it as a positive that we have input of this sort (BWR's) on sharetrader. Adds great strength to the debate on here and it means the company can move quite quickly to correct any misinformation that is going around. I think that's great. It is a little unusual - I can't recall any of the other companies I have invested in having senior staff members post on here.

I guess my issue was more about disclosure.

[Nitaa]

placebo. Thanks for that. I agree that disclosure is an issue that always seem to come up. both nzo and prc have had their moments. I do believe that they have inproved but still can be much better.

In saying all that and knowing BWR does look at this site from time to time, I hope that comments from you and others are taken seriously and can bring about a new image and confidence to the investors about their reporting. As i said, it has improved quite a bit over the years but it can be better.

[Hoop]

Has anyone done any calculations on expected NPAT once pike is in full productions 1mtpa?

What PE is reasonable for a HCC company with 20 year mine life?

I'm being optismistic at PE (av)8
but pessimistic at 700,000tpa* not 1mtpa
I'll leave you guys to do your own homework re:cost to mine and transport (try prospectus + old news releases) We all know the approx price US$ for coal/t). Is there royalties?

* Quote from latest news release......"The mine is expected to reach its full production rate in the final October-December quarter of
this year when roadways in the coal seam have been opened up by the heavy cutting machines to
provide access for high pressure water cannons to start blasting coal out of the seam at the rate
of up to 2,000 tonnes a day."

2000t/d x 365days = up to 730,000t/y
Could they (BWR or somebody) let us know where the other 270,000t/y is coming fromhttp://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/icons/icon5.gif Thanks

[whatsup]

Hoop, And that production figure( UP TO 2000t/day) is without any break downs!

[Unicorn]

I'm being optismistic at PE (av)8
but pessimistic at 700,000tpa* not 1mtpa
I'll leave you guys to do your own homework re:cost to mine and transport (try prospectus + old news releases) We all know the approx price US$ for coal/t). Is there royalties?

* Quote from latest news release......"The mine is expected to reach its full production rate in the final October-December quarter of
this year when roadways in the coal seam have been opened up by the heavy cutting machines to
provide access for high pressure water cannons to start blasting coal out of the seam at the rate
of up to 2,000 tonnes a day."

2000t/d x 365days = up to 730,000t/y
Could they (BWR or somebody) let us know where the other 270,000t/y is coming from

I noticed that variance to previous production estimate figures, so had a dig through the PRC Prospectus. It listed 800,000t to 900,000t per year from hydraulic mining, plus 200,000t to 400,000t from road header and continuous miner roadway development mining - a total of up to 1,300,000t.

There is a very significant potential increment to the hydraulic miner output - but exactly how much that is now is hard to estimate, given that the mine plan has been evolving considerably since the Prospectus. Regardless of what is planned, what is actually delivered will only be proven over time. But close to 1Mt still looks possible with the current equipment.

[patrick]

Question:
How many days in a Pike year?
Answer:
500

[Hoop]

I noticed that variance to previous production estimate figures, so had a dig through the PRC Prospectus. It listed 800,000t to 900,000t per year from hydraulic mining, plus 200,000t to 400,000t from road header and continuous miner roadway development mining - a total of up to 1,300,000t.

There is a very significant potential increment to the hydraulic miner output - but exactly how much that is now is hard to estimate, given that the mine plan has been evolving considerably since the Prospectus. Regardless of what is planned, what is actually delivered will only be proven over time. But close to 1Mt still looks possible with the current equipment.

Ahh..thanks Unicorn. I will alter my figures back to the 1 mt/y and re read PRC prospectus.

[Mysterybox]

Am still new to this, when are royalties etc disclosed? Is there an accounting contingency disclosure for this? Because surely they expect to pay this expense in the future and it is unavoidable in their planned course of operations.

Thanks

[COLIN]

Am still new to this, when are royalties etc disclosed? Is there an accounting contingency disclosure for this? Because surely they expect to pay this expense in the future and it is unavoidable in their planned course of operations.

Thanks
Are not royalties only payable on what is actually mined? Therefore why the need to provide for these in advance? (If they don't produce any coal then they don't pay any royalties?)

As to the actual level of the rate levied by the Govt by way of payment to HM The Queen: I don't know this offhand but of course it must be taken into account in any forecasts/projections as to net proceeds from the mine.

[sideline]

Am still new to this, when are royalties etc disclosed? Is there an accounting contingency disclosure for this? Because surely they expect to pay this expense in the future and it is unavoidable in their planned course of operations.

Thanks

Your post is a mystery to me, Mysterybox. Are you on the prowl for some cheaper shares?

From Crown Minerals:


The royalty regime is a hybrid regime comprising a one percent ad valorem royalty
component and a five percent accounting profits royalty component.

Those royalties portions accrue only when production or sales/profits occur, so no worries.

I think what you might be referring to is the funny Australian accounting rule that the
royalties for all mineral reserves have to be shown as future liabilities in the balance
sheet thereby giving a nasty figure there and making some companies maybe reluctant to
officially upgrade their reserve estimates. (At least that's what I've gathered from some oilers).
Not sure whether similar rules actually apply here and why it should be relevant if it does.

Maybe somebody familiar with accounting could enlighten us.

[digger]

Vale Purchases Saudi Supertankers to Convert, TradeWinds Says
Share | Email | Print | A A A

By Alaric Nightingale

June 12 (Bloomberg) -- Vale SA bought two Saudi Arabian- owned supertankers that it will convert to haul iron ore, TradeWinds reported, citing shipbrokers it didn’t identify.

Vale purchased the Carina Star and Hydra Star for a total of about $45 million, the newspaper reported. The vessels were owned by Vela International Marine Ltd. and will be converted at an unidentified yard in China, it said.

Vela is the shipping unit of Saudi Aramco, which is in turn owned by the Saudi Arabian government.

To contact the reporter on this story: Alaric Nightingale in London at Anightingal1@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: June 12, 2009 03:27 EDT

This piece is worth a passing thought. Somebody clearly see an improving future in steel making and hence hard coking coal prices.
There is also another piece on Bloomberg about rust becoming a problem with aged pipes as Math simmons has previously pointed out.

[croesus]

Away from Blackball.. for a while.... wondering if any "Coasters" have been for a look at the coal dump at Ikamatua... would be good to know there is a steady convoy of trucks full of coal on the road between the mine and the rail depot

Would have thought on the basis of the last announcement.. the S/P may have firmed up.

[boysy]

Macarthur Says Demand for Coking Coal Showing Recovery Signs
Share | Email | Print | A A A

By Jesse Riseborough

June 17 (Bloomberg) -- Macarthur Coal Ltd., the world’s biggest pulverized coal exporter, said customer demand for the steelmaking raw material is recovering as China seeks shipments.

“The metallurgical coal market is showing tentative signs of recovery with renewed customer interest,” Shane Stephan, chief development officer, said today in a presentation sent to the Australian stock exchange.

Steelmakers in China boosted production this year, spurred by the government’s 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus package for construction of housing, roads and railroads. Coking coal contract prices may gain 8.5 percent next year because of rising steel demand in China, Macquarie Group Ltd. said in a June 15 report, revising its forecast for a 15 percent decline from this year’s price of $129 a ton.

Australian exports of coking coal to China last month jumped to about 4.1 million metric tons, Brisbane-based Macarthur said today in a statement to the Australian stock exchange. That compares with less than 500,000 tons in April, according to Macarthur’s presentation.

Macarthur dropped 5.8 percent to A$6.33 at 10:22 a.m. in Sydney. The company this month predicted it will beat its sales forecast as Chinese demand unexpectedly jumps.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jesse Riseborough in Melbourne at jriseborough@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: June 16, 2009 20:23 EDT

[Wiremu]

Macquarie forecasting $US140 tonne HCC price next year:

http://www.longwalls.com/StoryView.asp?StoryID=1028129

[the machine]

now 3 weeks since ventilation shaft fully rerstored and no news is good news - thus stockpile should be growing ready for first shipment.

M

[croesus]

Picking the Share Price will firm this week..... can not decide if the options are fairly priced or under priced... any thoughts ?

Disc.. hold PRCOA

[Hoop]

Picking the Share Price will firm this week..... can not decide if the options are fairly priced or under priced... any thoughts ?

Disc.. hold PRCOA

Croesus...
Winner69 posts on the PRCOA thread (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?t=6841&page=4) says it all...so please the entire thread and pay special attention to all Winner's posts and your query will be answered.
...Us ST Posters are very lucky to have these very knowledgable people who are generous enough to share their knowledge to us through Sharetrader....

[croesus]

Thanks Hoop.....had'nt noted... there was a PRCOA thread.

Cheers.

[zorba]

Green Shoots turning into lotsa black coal and hot metal ....


Fushan Raises Coal Prices 14% as Steelmakers’ Demand Rebounds:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602099&sid=aXp4gp0FNQXA

and

Newcastle Weekly Coal Exports Rise 12%; Ship Queue Increases:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aN0d7X4jr8Rg


Go Pike River Coal !!!

[Dr_Who]

Time to revisit this beast. lol

Anyone have a valuation on PRC?

Hows the coal coming along? Maybe someone closer to the action can update us?

[croesus]

Healthy turnover in Heads and opts today....my understanding is the stockpile is growing steadily, the Hydro mining starts in Sept, but as far as I know .. the Coal is still at the mine.. not at the Ikamatua load out depot.....

Would be interested in a chartist view of P.R.C ... thanks in advance.

Croesus.

[kizame]

Price seems to be consolidating at these levels,after a good rise.
Needs some good news to push the share price higher on the next leg,which on the chart looks inevitable,it's just when.

[Phaedrus]

Croesus, PRC has formed a Symmetrical Triangle. These are a Bullish formation in that 64% of the time they result in an upside breakout.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/PRC716.gif

[Lego_Man]

Cheers P

Enjoy the holiday!

[fruitloop]

IF the earthquake had any effect on the mine would we hear about it quickly?

[blockhead]

Depend how long it takes them to shovel their way out

[JoeBlogs]

Thankfully a couple of hundred KMs should have saved us. I'm not sure why the SP hasn't responded positively to news and sentiment over the last few days? Even so, I'm happy to load up with more at these levels if people are willing to sell, I'll take their money :D

[Dr_Who]

PRC is looking cheap at these levels compare to the other coal stocks in Aussie and overseas.

The problem is that the market wants PRC to start selling some coal and/or have a coal contract price before any re-rating and to gain back investor confidence.

If there is nothing wrong with the tunnel or mining, then it is a steal at these price levels. I was hoping someone closer to the action can confirm everything is going fine down at the mines.

[Dr_Who]

There is incipient recovery in Asian steel markets that has created renewed demand pressures in the iron ore and coking coal markets. The spot iron ore price hit $US90 this week amid reports that Korea and Japan are in the market for material. After you discount for the cost of freight, that represents a 30 per cent premium over the current benchmark.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25797772-5001641,00.html

[Dr_Who]

MCC is going mentally gangbusting over in Aust and PRC eyes is looking into the headlights like a possum (Whats ups quote).

PRC is acting like the NZX, dead as a Doe doe!

[Bilo]

MCC is going mentally gangbusting over in Aust and PRC eyes is looking into the headlights like a possum (Whats ups quote).

PRC is acting like the NZX, dead as a Doe doe!

An announcement is overdue IMO. Gordon Ward only opens up when he needs money (read useless). He will consider that a quarterly report will be adequate to satisfy market requirements (read ignorant) that is why the SP is languishing - the market is uninformed/misinformed. Take it or leave it. They are rolling in cash and don't give a monkey's that you gave them your cash.

[Placebo]

Well if there is no such thing as bad news then the silence from PRC can't be good. Even mundane announcements about tea bags being delivered to the staff cafeteria would be an indication something is going on.

Agree this will continue to drift until the news (or the coal, preferably) starts flowing. There must be some sort of run of the mill update on reinstaling ventilation shafts or some techno-babble about hydro mining they could throw at us.

Or with all that cash on hand, maybe they could invite some analysts/institutions/potential investors down there to view the premises.

[disc: I suggested this sort of thing in a post about FBU once - suggested they go on a roadshow. Hey presto within a month they were doing it and the price went north] ;)

Come on PRC, lift your game!

[JoeBlogs]

I've sent them an email requesting an update to the market. Suggest others do the same........

I think you'll find it's all ops normal, but I think the market should be kept better updated given the critical stage of the project, and the history. Even so, I continue to pick-up more shares in anticipation of these taking off soon.

[manxman]

In a cosy little cottage in a cosy little dell
A dear old fashioned miner and his daughter used to dwell.
She was pretty, she was charming, she was tender, she was mild,
And her sympathies were such that she was frequently with child.
The year her hospitality attained a record high
She became the happy mammy of an infant which was I.
Whenever she was gloomy I could always make her grin
By childishly inquiring who my daddy could have been.
The sharemilker was favoured by the girls in Mammy's set
But a travelling man from Greymouth was an even money bet.
But such were Mammy's motives, and such was her allure
That even Tony Radford wasn't absolutely sure.

Oh our parents forgot to get married
Our parents forgot to get wed
Did a wedding bell chime
It was always a time
when our parents were somewhere in bed.
Thanks to our kind loving parents
We are kings in the land of the free
Your banker, your broker, your Wellington joker
Three prominent bastards are we, tra la la
Three prominent bastards are we

.....

Apologies to Ogden Nash

But in the absence of facts, rumours will fill the void.

[croesus]

Classic M.M...........one of the better posts on Sharetrader

[JoeBlogs]

Response from Brian Roulston: "There is a quarterly report and press release due out within the next few days which will update shareholders on recent activities"

[Dr_Who]

Response from Brian Roulston: "There is a quarterly report and press release due out within the next few days which will update shareholders on recent activities"

Thanks JB.

On that note, one assumes that everything is going well down in the tunnel. PRC management have alot of learn about keeping us informed.

I assume also that PRC should be negotiating for a fixed 1 year contract price to sell their coal? Either that or sell it on the market floating price.

[JoeBlogs]

Yes I get the impression all is progressing as planned. All will be revealed in due course! Meanwhile, the great buying continues....

[Xerof]

Gordon said at the rights roadshows, months ago now, that the contracts for this year were close to being finalised at "a dollar or two" either side of $128. The delayed sales at last years pricing of $300, was also being renegotiated

Should be mentioned somewhere in the quarterly due out soon (thanks Brian)

Would also be interested to know if any forward FX cover has been taken out, now that they appear to be in production, and/or a statement on what the policy is in this regard

[digger]

The climbing dollar might be the one that rains on our parade. Every time the world thinks the recession is going to end it signals a return to risk and the NZ dollar rises.Depression sends it down and then the US and Japan rise.

[Dr_Who]

The climbing dollar might be the one that rains on our parade. Every time the world thinks the recession is going to end it signals a return to risk and the NZ dollar rises.Depression sends it down and then the US and Japan rise.

The AUD is also strong, but it doesnt stop Aussie coal miners from going ballistic. Look at MCC, it hit $8 today. :eek: I wish I had invested in MCC instead of PRC. Either management is not telling us something or this stock is very very cheap.

[patrick]

Thanks Joe,
What's the bet the report will refer,again, to a lower anual production target of about 600,000 tons; ignoring ,again, the Prospectus forcast!

[JoeBlogs]

Either management is not telling us something or this stock is very very cheap

I'm fairly confident it's the latter. There is no reason PRC shouldn't be following at least some of the recent moves by the likes of MCC, RIO, BHP which are all due to the same basic fundamental influence - solid demand for steel in China - at least, more solid than was recently priced in. It doesn't get much more simple than that. Major analysts agree, what's not to like?

Anyway, I've put my money where my mouth is, so we'll see what happens!

[JoeBlogs]

Hmm, maybe not quite so rosy.....

[Dr_Who]

PRC mine operations update out.

My brokers site has a 20 mins delay on announcements. :confused:

[nwood]

PIKE RIVER MINE OPERATIONS UPDATE

Coal Price Settled at US$128 per Tonne

Pike River has sold its premium hard coking coal for the current Japanese Fiscal Year
ended 31 March 2010 at US$128 per tonne*.

Pike River says that settlement at this level was anticipated and matches prices reported
for benchmark premium hard coking coal achieved by major Australian coal producers. With
industry analysts predicting China will import a record quantity of hard coking coal in
2009, as much as 17 million tonnes, an increase in coking coal prices is looking more
likely for next year.


First Export Shipment and Hydro Coal Now Scheduled for November

Meanwhile, at the mine some “teething problems” have slowed production ramp-up, putting
back the scheduled date for the first 60,000 tonne export shipment by six weeks.

The first coal shipment is now scheduled to leave for Japan around mid-November 2009.

Pike River has sufficient funding in place to accommodate the delay and it is on track to
meet the Liberty Harbor convertible bond condition that “first steady state” production
is demonstrated by 30 November 2009. This requires Pike River to be capable of producing
800,000 tonnes in the following year to 30 November 2010. The mine infrastructure is in
place and once hydro-mining commences the Pike River mine will be capable of producing in
excess of 1 million tonnes per year.

Chief Executive Gordon Ward says to overcome the delay in production ramp-up, the mine
plan has been modified to access the first hydro mining (high pressure water cannon)
extraction panels closer to pit bottom. First hydro mining is now expected in November.

He says good progress was made with the restoration of the ventilation shaft in early
June. However, building up production has taken longer than anticipated because of
relatively minor, but time-consuming, faults in the brand new heavy cutting machines and
the need for Pike River mining crews to become familiar with these machines.

Mr Ward says “recent modifications made to the machines together with additional training
and increased familiarization by the mining crews is already seeing significantly
improved performance”.

He also said “given the mining experience to date and the need for a reasonable level of
work in stone over the next couple of months, it is prudent to apply a more conservative
timeframe for completion of the ramp-up which pushes out the first coal shipment date”.

The roadheader and one continuous miner are now in operation with the second continuous
miner planned to go underground this week.

Meanwhile the pit bottom infrastructure has been completed, with the 10-kilometre coal
slurry pipeline now carrying all crushed coal – previously being taken out by truck -
from the pit bottom to the coal preparation plant.

The coal slurry and flume pumps have been commissioned, the coal crusher and coal flumes
tested, electrical installations completed, and the first full test run for loading
export coal at the Ikamatua rail loadout facility will be in the next month.


* Coal sales prices agreed with Gujarat NRE Coal (NSW) Pty Limited and Saurashtra Fuels
Private Limited are subject to receipt of an NZX waiver or shareholder approval.

[Dr_Who]

Many thanks for posting ann Nwood.

Funny how management have to be pressured to come out with an announcement.

Only a minor growing pains, the fundamentals have not changed, will pick up shares more when sp comes down.

Coking coal spot prices for the last few weeks hit US$145-150.

[shasta]

Many thanks for posting ann Nwood.

Funny how management have to be pressured to come out with an announcement.

Only a minor growing pains, the fundamentals have not changed, will pick up shares more when sp comes down.

Coking coal spot prices for the last few weeks hit US$145-150.

The ann refers to first coal Nov 09, & then ramping up to 800kt to Nov 10.

800/12 = 66.7kt per month, but for this financial year (assuming Dec start & ramping up to full capacity) = say 7 months * 60kt = 420kt x $US128

Revenue to June 2010 = ~$US53m x 0.65 NZD/USD = ~$NZ80m

With the mining costs likely to be expensed, PRC will be lucky to be in profit/cashflow positive this financial year.

The market will want to see PRC getting a higher contract price next year when producing at capacity.

Disc: Happy with my indirect interest via NZO

[Xerof]

800,000 is the covenant requirement for Liberty, not the expected annualised production level, which is stated to be IN EXCESS OF 1,000,000.

Peter Whittall is on record as saying their annual production capacity is more like 1.5m, so 1 mill should be easily achievable.

[manxman]

800,000 is the covenant requirement for Liberty, not the expected annualised production level, which is stated to be IN EXCESS OF 1,000,000.

Peter Whittall is on record as saying their annual production capacity is more like 1.5m, so 1 mill should be easily achievable.

With both hydro units working - no probem, but they are going to be cramped for space initially, and one hydro unit will be always be out of action while they shift from panel to panel. Probably they won't exceed 160% of the capacity of a single hydro unit on average. Incidentally, no one knows quite how the coal will break out. There has to be a learning curve.

Meeting the Liberty Harbour covenant requirement by November is not a given. Is anyone familiar with what happens if the deadline is missed? Grasping the short and curlies seems to be a core competance for Liberty, and I won't feel relaxed until their issue is settled.

The next problem will be methane. It looks as though the world is getting serious about gas emissions, which means that PRC will need to harvest the gas ahead of mining, and probably generate on site. Exhausting methane to atmosphere won't be on. You can buy a 2MW unit skid mounted genset pretty well ex-stock but there is a capital cost. Interesting times.

[Dr_Who]

Here comes the Chinese

China June coal imports at record 16.07 mln T

SHANGHAI, July 21 (Reuters) - China's coal imports hit a fresh all-time high at 16.07 million tonnes in June, up 70 percent from a month earlier, according to Reuters calculations based on data released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.

China's net coal imports in the first half of the year hit 36.6 million tonnes, the ministry said in a statement on its website (www.miit.gov.cn). (Reporting by Rujun Shen and Jacqueline Wong)

http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKSHA10871320090721

[Dr_Who]

Right on queue, the ships line up

As recently as May there were but 17 ships waiting to berth at the Port Waratah loaders to take Hunter Valley coal to the region's power stations. Today there are 52, which is double what most regard as the optimum number for the port. And within a month, given current trends, we might well be back into the 70s.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25817022-5001641,00.html

[Balance]

Delays, costs blow-out, teething problems - this has been the story of PRC.

[The BOWMAN]

Delays, costs blow-out, teething problems - this has been the story of PRC.

A bunch of inexperienced, incompetent amateurs.

[Balance]

Just think about this from a risk point of view for a minute. If the earthquake last week had struck around Pike River, the delay will be another 2 years and PRC will need another $100m of capital raising.

Also, sp has been drifting down and then, PRC advises of the delay ???????? Why not announce it proactively ???????

Too risky for me given the company's track record. Meanwhile, Oz miners are booming.

[Dr_Who]

PRC sp at these levels have already factored in the risk, hence PRC sp have not rallied hard like their counter parts in Aussie. Thanks partly to insiders selling prior to announcement.

Once PRC gets their shiat into gear, the real price appreciation will begin. Until then you only have to watch China accummulating iron ore and iron ore firms around the world to know where coking demand will be in 1-2 years time. China and others will need a huge amount of coking coal for their steel production plants.

PRC at present value is risky, but looking 1-2 years down the track is a very different story. Who the hell price share at present value? You price in shares for future value.

I wouldnt be surprise if coking coal price hit $150-$200 at next years contract negotiations given where inflation and commodity prices are heading.

[Placebo]

Doc I think the answer to your question depends on your position as a holder - are you a trader or an "investor"? I think traders would be steering clear of this at present, and it is still very much a spec play. The value is in the future at present.

At the moment it is a hold-and-hope for holders, a white-knuckle ride with significant uncertainty. Not being helped by irregular communications from the company who have gratefully received our money.

Being a start-up operation I think most of us would forgive them for a couple of unforeseen setbacks but our patience is running thin. Any more setbacks the competence of the company will really be in question.

The future prospects look bright but the clock is ticking and we want to see some black stuff emerging soon - as I am sure do the staff and execs at PRC.

[Balance]

PRC sp at these levels have already factored in the risk, hence PRC sp have not rallied hard like their counter parts in Aussie. Thanks partly to insiders selling prior to announcement.



If you believe this, then a complaint to the NZX is in order.

Also, how can you win against insiders?

[COLIN]

Also, how can you win against insiders?

Become one, is the obvious answer I suppose!

[Hoop]

If you believe this, then a complaint to the NZX is in order.

Also, how can you win against insiders?

You can win...by exactly what you said ..complain to the NZX.

Email the NZX outline the time and date of the abnormal behaviour(s) and ask them to check it out.
it does work ..I know..because my complaint a couple of years ago was successful....

[Placebo]

Errm, maybe I take back what said about no such thing as bad news: http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/pike-river-coal-disputes-its-debt-covenants-are-risk-106189?headsup=1

[Dr_Who]

Thanks for the article Placebo.

Interesting to see analysts valuation in the $1.50-$2.00 range. Lets hope PRC get their act together. The coal is there, just need to get the bloody thing out.

[waterboy]

interesting article, i have seen various valuations around and agree there is upside to be had if the company can start meeting targets and get some investor confidence back. I am a shareholder but am losing confidence, would be interested to know the background of some of the senior management/engineers. Are they setting their targets to high for a start up miner?

Starting to think money would be better off in an aussi coal miner.

[digger]

interesting article, i have seen various valuations around and agree there is upside to be had if the company can start meeting targets and get some investor confidence back. I am a shareholder but am losing confidence, would be interested to know the background of some of the senior management/engineers. Are they setting their targets to high for a start up miner?

Starting to think money would be better off in an aussi coal miner.


Waterboy stick around for another few hunderd million years and Pike will be a Aus coal mine. See the earthquake has shifted the whole country about 20 mm closer to Aus. And apparantly that has been going on for millions of years already.

[Sideshow Bob]

I see that they might be able to get some more experienced staff:

http://www.3news.co.nz/News/NationalNews/Over-100-jobs-to-go-at-Stockton-Mine/tabid/423/articleID/113400/cat/64/Default.aspx

[Placebo]

Waterboy stick around for another few hunderd million years and Pike will be a Aus coal mine. See the earthquake has shifted the whole country about 20 mm closer to Aus. And apparantly that has been going on for millions of years already.

Other way round, Digger. The Aussies are getting closer to us (Indo-Australian plate is pushing over the Pacific plate). By that measure only half of NZ will exist, the rest will be pushed up into enormous mountains or at the earth's core.

[LJB]

Apparently due to lateral movement along the alpine fault, NZ will be a 4 island archipeligo in a few million years, with Pike River mine archaeological dig being carried out by Klingons on the predictably named Middle Island.

[digger]

Apparently due to lateral movement along the alpine fault, NZ will be a 4 island archipeligo in a few million years, with Pike River mine archaeological dig being carried out by Klingons on the predictably named Middle Island.

Can not resist asking if by then will it have started producing.Or will it be just one delay away.

[neopoleII]

heres a question.......
what happens after 20 or so years when the coal is all gone....... to the massive hole in the ground?
will it be used as a military bunker, filled in, dynamited, or preserved for a future use??

[Casa del Energia]

heres a question.......
what happens after 20 or so years when the coal is all gone....... to the massive hole in the ground?
will it be used as a military bunker, filled in, dynamited, or preserved for a future use??

Look to the Stockton mine for the answer - they completelty dug up old workings - fascinating to see old shafts side by side in the face of an open cast mine.

[manxman]

heres a question.......
what happens after 20 or so years when the coal is all gone....... to the massive hole in the ground?
will it be used as a military bunker, filled in, dynamited, or preserved for a future use??

They seal all the remaining coal off for safety reasons. Then they build a lovely big restaurant where the coal seam hits the western escarpment. Huge views. This becomes the terminus for a treetop gondola from Punakaiki. Fifteen km of spectacular country.

Ecotourism, industrial archeology, wild food (snails?) and a rattling good wine list...

In fact, why not make an early drive to the escarpment and get started while the mine is still running. Would help with the ventilation too. Great place for the AGM in 2015.

DOC already have the facilities on the eastern side marked down for a training centre or something. It could all fit in rather well.

[digger]

China
Premier Wen announced that Beijing is going to use its $2.1 trillion in foreign exchange reserves to buy foreign assets. This is the first time that China has officially announced that it is government policy to directly support its large state-owned corporations by purchasing offshore assets.
China’s purchase of non-financial assets reached $40.7 billion last year, up from $143 million in 2002. Oil and other natural resource assets are expected to be at the top of Beijing’s shopping list.
The move is in response to China’s concerns over the possibility that US deficits will eventually lead to devaluation of the US dollar.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Editorial Notes


Now what is up for sale that China might want??

[Dr_Who]

The problem with most ST posters are too short term focus and losing the huge long term potential.

A good example is if an agent comes to you with a real estate deal that is currently being under construction, but with some minor setbacks and delays. All constructions have minor setbacks, this is no exception with PRC. The property is valued at current market price of $1.5-2.0 million and it will be completed in Nov 2009. You can purchase the property today for $1.1 million. The property market is also booming with a nice upward trend.

Would you buy the property?

Of cos you would.

[boysy]

while i believe some of what you are saying dr who the fact of the matter is the concept of opportunity cost. Why would you invest in PRC when there are so many other "bargains" out there with a lower risk profile and potentially higher returns. While PRC may fly the question has to be asked will it fly as high as other stocks with similar risk in the same period of time. People on this thread belive everything that is coming out of mgmts mouth you have to ask have they achieved any of there targets in time so far. I bough in the initial ipo and sold out after other opportunities presented themselves. You can get both short term and long term gain if you invest wisely just remember that you dont have to have one or the other.

[blockhead]

Whats presently on your "bargain" list Boy o

[Dr_Who]

Boy o, I agree with your post, thats why you have a diversified portfolio. Your argument is making an assumption that one puts all their money in a single stock.

I still believe PRC is a short term weakness with huge upside potential in the future, esp with early next years new contract negotiation for coking coal price.

[Walfootrot]

Hi Dr Who, i agree with your assessment. My strategy over the past 6 months has been to buy quality stocks, which in my opinion, are undervalued and to hold them in anticipation of the recovery. I have stored away ANZ, AMP, TEL and others. I would put PRC at the more speculative end of the spectrum- however if you don't need liquid fund straight away then, yes, buy them and wait for the upsurge & enjoy!!

Wal.:D

[Placebo]

McDouall Stuart note:

Our overall view is that PRC’s investment proposition remains for now unchanged, being that if it can prove its operating model as a 1mtpa producer over the balance of 2009, PRC will be materially re-rated over the next 6-12 months. At a 62% discount to our current DCF valuation, we continue to rate PRC a Buy.



We do however admit to increasing caution over the pending 30 November Liberty Harbor deadline, and will be monitoring progress closely over the next couple of months en-route to full production rates.



If you are currently sitting on profits, it may be prudent to take the top off your holding in the shorter term pending further certainty.



PRC last traded at $1.12 and is currently bid at $1.11 and offered at $1.12.

[Xerof]

surprisingly over cautious, given how far this has progressed, and given Liberty have happily renegotiated on previous occasions.

I smell a rat, and it's not coal burning. I for one am happy with the small risk

disc: took the top off long ago, and since re-entered on rights issue

[Odd Fellow]

What's going on, there have over 887000 shares

changed hands, value of over $ 990000 and the

price of shares never moved a cent up or down.

Any one can explain this?

[Rabbi]

What's going on, there have over 887000 shares

changed hands, value of over $ 990000 and the

price of shares never moved a cent up or down.

Any one can explain this?

One of the TA experts might be able to shed some light on it.

Sometimes, relatively high volume on no movement means "distribution", ie smart money getting out before the inevitable shareprice decline.:(

[Odd Fellow]

One of the TA experts might be able to shed some light on it.

Sometimes, relatively high volume on no movement means "distribution", ie smart money getting out before the inevitable shareprice decline.:(


Thanks Rabbi

[Xerof]

Alternatively, it could also be ACCUMULATION by smart money, being given stock by those who heed the broker's recommendation to "take the top off holdings if you are in profit"

take your pick :D:D

[Xerof]

If you refer to Phaedrus's recent chart, post #3716, you will see price action is playing into the apex of the Symmetrical Triangle, with less and less volatility.

So, one would expect a breakout next week, and as Ph says 64% chance of this being to the topside

[Dr_Who]

One of the TA experts might be able to shed some light on it.

Sometimes, relatively high volume on no movement means "distribution", ie smart money getting out before the inevitable shareprice decline.:(

Better start selling quick before the sp collapse on ya. :D

[Hoop]

If you refer to Phaedrus's recent chart, post #3716, you will see price action is playing into the apex of the Symmetrical Triangle, with less and less volatility.

So, one would expect a breakout next week, and as Ph says 64% chance of this being to the topside

Unfortunately on my charts it has broken to the bottom side of the Symmetrical Triangle :(

[Xerof]

I'll send you mine.....Incredible - right on lower boundary

Regardless, next week will give us direction

[Xerof]

Hoops,

just noticed that Incredible Charts with a yahoo feed seem to be a day behind the action - hate that.........

Apologies to the person(s) who might have bought at 113 late today on my observations

[Hoop]

Hoops,

just noticed that Incredible Charts with a yahoo feed seem to be a day behind the action - hate that.........


Me too......

[Dr_Who]

This will be a fundamentalist vs TA analysis thread.

Fundamentalist will go long on PRC at $1.12 and TA are calling a short at $1.12.

[kizame]

OBV Still rising,so positive for now. But am thinking a correction due in the broader market,and whilst we have had very positive markets,the stock hasn't risen higher during this period,leaves it vulnerable.
But the symmetrical triangle is in place and on my charts a wee breakout through the bottom, is not always a failure,and can be followed by the advance and the stock hitting a target price. blah blah blah.

[Hoop]

This will be a fundamentalist vs TA analysis thread.

Fundamentalist will go long on PRC at $1.12 and TA are calling a short at $1.12.

I hope not ..Doc
This isn't a contest
I was a pure Fundy for 25 years and traded infrequently as i was a boring long term investor so I had no need for TA tools. Now that I trade much more frequently, have an active short/medium term portfolio and pay to support the taxman as well, TA tools become a necessary part of my investing life.

Speaking from my past experiences...if I was still a Fundy I would have PRC as essential stock in my portfolio by NOW as it going to supply a healthy dividend yield (10%) for many (18) years and the average long term downside risk in share price is mimimal. I may have to wait a year or so for the dividend yield to start but buying in last year at sub$1 for that possible 10% yield is worth the wait.

So a Fundy should already have this stock in their portfolio and waiting...except perhaps a Fundy with restricted circumstances who is say 70+ their long term horizons have diminished, and/or has to solely rely on a portfolio with a good steady income stream to live off..This Fundy population segment may not be in PRC yet and will wait a bit longer until closer to the time that PRC will commence with Dividends....Now this 70+ Fundy will need to judge a point of entry...this is where (s)he should use TA tools to time an entry for maximum effect. Usually a Fundy is not too clued up on TA so in theory observing the likes of Phaedrus closer to their time of PRC entry would be to their advantage.

As an example: - if a Fundy's portfolio can now fund a PRC entry at this point in time but they would have no urgent time pressure to do so immediately, all TA is saying is this is not the time to buy in.

[Dr_Who]

Interesting to see crossings being done at a premium. This usually indicates a large buyer looking for stock.

[Flogs]

Hi Dr

I'm relatively new to this game. Could you please explain what you mean by "crossings being done at a premium". From what I see PRC dropped a cent today.

Many Thanks
Flogs

[Dr_Who]

Hi Dr

I'm relatively new to this game. Could you please explain what you mean by "crossings being done at a premium". From what I see PRC dropped a cent today.

Many Thanks
Flogs

There was a crossing of 400,000 shares in PRC today at $1.13. The shares traded on the market in the range of $1.12-1.13 today. If there was a large seller, one would assume the crossing to be done at $1.12 or lower especially when $1.12 was thinly bid.

Hope this helps. I am only making an assumption here based on observation.

[Sideshow Bob]

Hoops,

just noticed that Incredible Charts with a yahoo feed seem to be a day behind the action - hate that.........

Apologies to the person(s) who might have bought at 113 late today on my observations

If anybody buys based solely by what they read on this forum, they deserve what they get

[Flogs]

Thanks Dr

Appreciate your comments & observations.

[Dr_Who]

First came the Chinese follow by the Indians. You gotto be in it to go for a ride ;)

India hungry for our coking coal assets

INDIA is about to embark on a program of rapid coal sector acquisitions in Australia as it looks to plug a huge annual gap between supply and demand expected in the next three years.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,,25850046-643,00.html?from=public_rss