PRC Pike River Coal

[duncan macgregor]

Bit off topic but i was asked privately to explain my meanings on the above post so might as well do it here.
1, watersider is one who works at the port.
2,The advantage of knowing in advance of industrial unrest enables you to sell before it becomes common knowledge.
3, a good trading share is one where the price fluctuates from to high to, to low with a good volume.
4, the best way to know what is going on is to know someone that works in the indusrty.
5, Tea ladies and truck drivers always tell the truth, they dont get paid enough to cheat and lie like their superiors.
Hope that answers your questions i dont get involved with private messages. macdunk

[Rabbi]

Oh well, more upward movement of the shareprice today suggests someone is buying the rumour...so that probably means when an announcement is made re-first coal there will be a sell-off.:p
Just joking, but the punters seem to like the Pike story, which is slowly getting more and more de-risked as the days go by.:)

[tim23]

Does anyone have an approx date for tunnel completion?

[Billy Boy]

First coal mid june. Could be a bit earlyier

[Billy Boy]

As per 2days announcement JULY....

[Rabbi]

No Surprises and plenty of detail on mine development progress.

Very reassuring, especially the coal price. :D

Pike River Coal Limited
Activities Report
Quarter ended 31 March 2008

Highlights
- Hard coking coal prices settled at US$300 per tonne
- $97.4 million funding package completed
- Pit bottom (eastern area) completed and tunnel at 2,047m
- Coal preparation plant more than 80% complete

Overview
Pike River Coal Limited (Pike River) continues to make good progress in the development of its underground premium hard coking coal mine, located 50 kilometres north east of Greymouth on the South Island's West Coast. Under Pike River's mine plan 17.6 million tonnes of high quality, low ash coking coal will be produced over the mine life for use in the steel making industry, particularly in Asia and the sub-continent. Pike River's hard coking coal will be used by coke and steel makers and will be an important component in the coke making blend due to its low ash, low phosphorous and high fluidity.

With the 2,300 metre access tunnel nearing completion, first coal from the mine is expected in July 2008. The subsequent months will see the completion of the ventilation shaft and a number of roadways being developed in the geologically complex zone adjacent to the Hawera fault, which forms the eastern boundary of the coal deposit. Production from the mine during this period will be a mixture of coal and stone as important infrastructure roadways are developed underground.

Upon the completion of the ventilation shaft, currently forecast to be October 2008, more mining equipment will be able to be deployed and production will ramp up, as planned, in the first quarter of 2009. Coal production in the year ended 30 June 2009 is forecast at 200,000 tonnes, with first production from the hydro-monitor system expected towards the end of that year; and production in the following year ending 30 June 2010 is forecast at 1 million tonnes.

Hard Coking Coal Prices Soar
Premium hard coking coal prices have been settled at US$300 per tonne for the current Japanese fiscal year commencing 1 April 2008 (JFY 2008), a trebling of the prior year's price.
These record prices reflect strong international demand for coking coal due to increasing steel demand driven by the growing Indian and Chinese economies in particular. For example, over the next five years demand for hard coking coal in India, which is currently running at 25 million tonnes per year, is expected to grow to 40 million tonnes per year.

Restrictions on supply from Australia due to infrastructural limitations and flooding in January 2008, combined with snowstorms in China and power shortages in South Africa, have all contributed to these much higher prices. Market observers are now predicting an increase in long term prices for hard coking coal, with forecasts ranging from US$90 - US$120 per tonne.

$97.4 Million Funding Completed
Pike River successfully completed a $97.4 million funding package in March 2008 comprised of a $60 million rights issue to existing shareholders and a convertible bond issue. The rights issue was very well received, with the offer of 66,666,667 shares being oversubscribed by 5%, despite a difficult equities market.

With all of the available shares being applied for, the third party underwriters to the rights issue were not called on to support the issue. The major shareholders, New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited, Saurashtra World Holdings Private Limited and Gujarat NRE Limited, took up their proportionate entitlements to new shares and each has maintained their percentage shareholdings in Pike River. Lead manager to the rights issue was McDouall Stuart Securities Limited.

The US$30 million convertible bond issue to Liberty Harbor LLC (part of Goldman Sachs Asset Management) was completed on 12 March 2008. The NZD:USD cross rate at that date was 0.8025, resulting in bonds with a NZD equivalent value of $37.4 million being issued. This would equate to 31.95 million shares if all the bonds were converted during their 3 year term into Pike River shares (at bondholder election) at the conversion price of $1.17 per share.

Key Mine Developments
In the quarter ended 31 March 2008 and the subsequent period to 29 April 2008, development of the tunnel and key infrastructure has progressed well against projected milestones.
1) Development of the Mine Access Tunnel and Pit Bottom

Roadways
Pit bottom roadways east of the Hawera fault were completed in April 2008 (see diagram in the PDF version of this report available at www.pike.co.nz). These roadways have been developed in parallel with incremental advancement of the main tunnel since mid December 2007 and have been completed on schedule.

As at 29 April 2008, the tunnel had been progressed to 2,047 metres. The pit bottom roadways comprised a further 471 metres of tunnelling either side of the main tunnel. Many of these roadways are significantly higher and wider than the main tunnel, with the highest roadway for the large concrete lined slurry tanks standing some 11 metres high. These roadways will house the coal crushing plant and slurrying systems, the return water from the coal preparation plant, the fluming water pumps and the attendant electrical installations.

2) Tunnel Development through the Hawera Fault and Shaft

Construction
As previously advised the tunnel is on track to intersect the Hawera fault in May 2008. Pike River management, in conjunction with the tunnel construction contractor McConnell Dowell, have conducted a number of risk assessments and equipment reviews to determine the safest and most efficient method of traversing the Hawera fault zone into the Brunner coal measures to the west of the fault. Two significant changes are expected to occur in the fault zone. Firstly the ground conditions have been forecast to deteriorate through this zone and therefore plans and equipment are in place to manage the poorer face conditions. The fault zone may also yield methane gas which would be managed through the use of specialist equipment, ventilation, inspection and monitoring. Prior to the intersection of the coal seam, the tunnel will become a "coal mine" under the applicable legislative definition and relevant controls and inspection regimes will be implemented by Pike River.

The current drill and blast method will be used for the tunnel until ground conditions dictate that the Pike River roadheader would be safer and more productive, at which time the roadheader will be commissioned at the face.

On the western side of the Hawera fault, the coal seam and surrounding strata have been curved upward by the upward thrusting action of the eastern rock mass and therefore the Brunner seam curves above the tunnel alignment. The main tunnel will therefore enter the Brunner seam from below and a full face of coal will be encountered adjacent to an existing borehole at the tunnel's completion point of 2,300 metres.

A roadway will then be driven right (to the north) and excavation will be completed at the base of the ventilation shaft. The ventilation shaft is a 4.15 metre diameter, 108 metre deep shaft which will provide a means of ventilating the mine. Drilling at the ventilation shaft site has shown that ground conditions were not good enough for the Alimak construction method and the more expensive, but lower risk raise-boring method was required. This resulted in allocation of $5 million of the existing project contingency. Surface works on the raisebore shaft are progressing well with no days lost to weather delays. Helicopters are flying 1.25 tonne concrete blocks individually to the site, for construction of retaining walls.

The ventilation shaft has been located at an existing cleared drill site to minimise removal of surface vegetation. As part of the ongoing rehabilitation programme, topsoil and organic material stripped from the pad will be stockpiled and rehabilitated for later recovery when the shaft is decommissioned. Cleared ferns, shrubs and seedlings will be kept on site in a shaded area for replanting as part of the rehabilitation.

3) Coal Slurry Pipeline and Coal Preparation Plant
The slurry pipeline is now at the White Knight Bridge adjacent to the tunnel entrance with 7.3 kilometres now completed. Early coal production from the mine, prior to commissioning the slurry system, will leave the mine by conveyor belt and be trucked to the coal preparation plant where it will be dumped into a holding pond and pumped into the coal preparation plant (the plant is designed for a wet feed and would not process the coal unless in a slurry form).

The coal preparation plant is now more than 80% complete and is on track for a June 2008 commissioning, prior
to first coal production. The coal scanning device, important for the determination of sulphur levels in the output coal, has been ordered from an Australian supplier. This world class equipment is expected to be accurate to +-0.03% when measuring sulphur. The coal preparation plant cost continues to be forecast within the previously advised budget of $20 million.

4) Construction of Roadheaders, Continuous Miners and Hydro-Monitoring Equipment
Training on Pike River's roadheader, previously delivered to site in January 2008, will commence in May 2008. The machine has been undergoing commissioning on site ready for tradesmen and operator training so as to be available for underground use from May 2008 as required.

The two continuous miners are being completed at the manufacturer's workshops in Newcastle, New South Wales, prior to shipment to the mine site in the mid year.
Pike River management have now commenced detailed design of the hydro-monitor extraction face equipment. Although not needed till the second quarter of 2009, much of the equipment has long lead times and therefore early design and ordering is essential.

Transport
Pike River coal will be exported from Port Lyttelton, Christchurch, on the East Coast of the South Island. This port can berth panamax vessels carrying 60,000 tonnes of coal. Due to the relatively low numbers of export vessels, Port Lyttelton does not suffer from the congestion problems of Australian ports which have led to lengthy ship queues and demurrage costs for exporters.

Having now tendered the major construction activities, a $12 million budget for the rail loading facility has been approved by the Pike River Board. The contract for the design and construction of the facility has been awarded to Nelson based company, Brightwater Engineering.

Health, Safety and Environmental
Pike River strives to achieve industry best practice in environmental management. No environmental incidents occurred on the mine development in the March 2008 quarter.

Pike River conducted a further 185 health and safety inductions for new staff and contractors during the March 2008 quarter. The emphasis on training has moved to preparation for mining operations, with programmes in the last quarter including electrical "flameproof" training, and various plant and equipment use and safety training courses.

[zorba]

.
What an excellent Quarterly Report -- can understand why the share price jumped 7-8 cents over the last cupla days.

Z

[Mysterybox]

PRC
01/05/2008
GENERAL

REL: 1311 HRS Pike River Coal Limited

GENERAL: PRC: Pike River Contribution To Port Costs

PIKE RIVER MAKES $1 MILLION CONTRIBUTION TO GREY DISTRICT COUNCIL FOR PORT
COSTS

Pike River Coal Limited (Pike River) announces that it will make a strictly
voluntary $1.16 million (plus GST) contribution to Grey District Council
(GDC) comprising $1 million in recognition of past costs incurred by Port
Westland Limited (PWL) relating to redevelopment of the Greymouth port for
the coal trade which is now not proceeding and $160,000 to acquire a truck
wash capital asset. PWL is owned entirely by GDC. The contribution by Pike
River will be spread evenly over three years.
Mr Gordon Ward, Chief Executive Officer of Pike River, said "The Pike River
coal mine has already delivered and will continue to bring many benefits to
the Grey District community for many years. Pike River is an integral part of
the community, being a major local employer and a significant purchaser of
local products and services, and this payment is yet another way in which we
can make a positive contribution to the Grey District".
Mr Tony Kokshoorn, Chairman of PWL and also Mayor of the Grey District,
welcomed the announcement. "We are delighted that Pike River has elected to
make this payment. Pike River will make a significant contribution to the
socio-economic prosperity of our District and this decision demonstrates the
very positive long term relationship we enjoy
End CA:00163994 For:PRC Type:GENERAL Time:2008-05-01:13:11:39

Seems to have some niceness to it, 386k a year payment.
For a reassured and stronger relationship with a distributer.

Sounds alright to me, but being new I am unsure, what do you all think?

[trackers]

Seems to have some niceness to it, 386k a year payment.
For a reassured and stronger relationship with a distributer.

Sounds alright to me, but being new I am unsure, what do you all think?

Very good move, average out the cost of keeping the council on their side over the life of the mine!..

[Mysterybox]

Very good move, average out the cost of keeping the council on their side over the life of the mine!..

you really are "the optimist" but great :) sounds good

[blockhead]

Not a silly move, if ever Tranzrail changes hands (Helen or Wo Chop Hu) and another transport supplier is required will be good to have the locals on Pikes side.

[trackers]

you really are "the optimist" but great :) sounds good


Yep, have to be :)

[Bilo]

Seems to have some niceness to it, 386k a year payment.

Sounds alright to me, but being new I am unsure, what do you all think?

In a land where bribery and corruption is frowned upon, this is altogether a better way of keeping the locals onside rather than Solid Energy's private eye debacle. At first it looks like they are being a little flippant with their new found wealth - (ex my back pocket). But better the carrot than the stick, especially on the West Coast. Good one PRC!

[tim23]

Cheap insurance, maybe but good one them, sounds ok to me.

[digger]

I will go with the gang on this one.We put them to some expence and while it is true that the gray council still gets some benfit from PRC existance,keepnig them on side is a good long term business decision.

[COLIN]

Seems to me that a lot of NZO investors (heads and options) also hold PRC and may be taking advantage of the recent strong run-up to sell some of these to provide cash for NZO option conversion. Anyone else hold the same view?

[tim23]

Probably fair comment. I've got 20,000 odd ODs and am looking to sell bits and pieces in anticiaption of conversion.

[bermuda]

Probably fair comment. I've got 20,000 odd ODs and am looking to sell bits and pieces in anticiaption of conversion.

Pike goes a lot higher. A lot higher.

A few of us are actually considering a bit of a celebration at the Moana Hotel in Brunner when the first load goes through. Could be a big day to remember.

This baby goes to $2.00 plus. I used to say $1.60 by end year but am far too conservative.

[AMR]

How much is 368k to Greymouth City Council? To us JAFAs it doesn't seem much.

[Billy Boy]

How much is 368k to Greymouth City Council? To us JAFAs it doesn't seem much.
Could go to helping buy back their beer :D:D

[Dr_Who]

Could go to helping buy back their beer :D:D

$400k worth of Tuis mate :D:D Good to see PRC giving something back to the community :)

[AMR]

I can imagine Jeanette Fitzsimmons now accusing PRC of bribing local authorities, and Greymouth telling her to keep her Carbon Dioxide inside the hole in her face.:D

[glennj]

$400k worth of Tuis mate :D:D Good to see PRC giving something back to the community :)

Yes very good PR to make a contribution to port costs run up at PRC's behest.
May dilute some of the ill will the change in transport arrangements created locally.
Unlikely to be Tuis mate, more likely DB or Monteiths:)

[zac]

I would regard this as a pragmatic out of court settlement. There were some undertakings made by PRC early in the piece that were acted on in good faith by other parties. And these parties may well have had legal redress in the event of PRC changing tack. It is also very good PR. I congratulate the Company.

[foodee]

Digger
Just to make you (and others) happy. Have done so!

You will have to delete your post as the quote is still there.

cheers

[Sideshow Bob]

How much is 368k to Greymouth City Council? To us JAFAs it doesn't seem much.

Wow, I haven't been to Greymouth for a year or so, but didn't realise it had growth that much to become a city!! :-)

[Base Trader]

The Met Coal market continues to look tight and the outlook appears robust through to March 2010. I am seeing robust forecasts above US$200 past 2011. The NZ Brokers are out of touch and you can see that with their revisions that they are simply following markets. ForBar in particular look gunshy on their promoted equities after the Feltex fiasco.

The spot market is well bid at near US$400 and the outlook appears for deficit in 2008 and 2009. The Aussie Coal infrastructure will not be replaced in 12 months and there is a reducing share of premium coking coal in the traded market. All these look good for PRC.

I believe the share will continue to be well bid from new non-NZ money as long as targets are met or close to met. Once the realisation is that the March 2009 contracts will be set at close to US$300 and tangible first full year cash earnings will be in the range of NZ$250m-NZ$325m - value will be achieved.

In my opinion this will be a $2 share and given good PRC project execution it could trade in the $3.00-$4.50 category by March 2009.

Disc: Of course I hold PRC.

[bermuda]

The Met Coal market continues to look tight and the outlook appears robust through to March 2010. I am seeing robust forecasts above US$200 past 2011. The NZ Brokers are out of touch and you can see that with their revisions that they are simply following markets. ForBar in particular look gunshy on their promoted equities after the Feltex fiasco.

The spot market is well bid at near US$400 and the outlook appears for deficit in 2008 and 2009. The Aussie Coal infrastructure will not be replaced in 12 months and there is a reducing share of premium coking coal in the traded market. All these look good for PRC.

I believe the share will continue to be well bid from new non-NZ money as long as targets are met or close to met. Once the realisation is that the March 2009 contracts will be set at close to US$300 and tangible first full year cash earnings will be in the range of NZ$250m-NZ$325m - value will be achieved.

In my opinion this will be a $2 share and given good PRC project execution it could trade in the $3.00-$4.50 category by March 2009.

Disc: Of course I hold PRC.

Base Trader,
Your sentiments are mine.
This is BIG.

[Dr_Who]

The Met Coal market continues to look tight and the outlook appears robust through to March 2010. I am seeing robust forecasts above US$200 past 2011. The NZ Brokers are out of touch and you can see that with their revisions that they are simply following markets. ForBar in particular look gunshy on their promoted equities after the Feltex fiasco.

The spot market is well bid at near US$400 and the outlook appears for deficit in 2008 and 2009. The Aussie Coal infrastructure will not be replaced in 12 months and there is a reducing share of premium coking coal in the traded market. All these look good for PRC.

I believe the share will continue to be well bid from new non-NZ money as long as targets are met or close to met. Once the realisation is that the March 2009 contracts will be set at close to US$300 and tangible first full year cash earnings will be in the range of NZ$250m-NZ$325m - value will be achieved.

In my opinion this will be a $2 share and given good PRC project execution it could trade in the $3.00-$4.50 category by March 2009.

Disc: Of course I hold PRC.
'

Totally agree with you. I did call PRC a $2 stock a few posts back also. Just have to look over the ditch to see what multiples the coal stocks are trading at to see the true value of PRC.

You need a good aussie mining analyst to do some number crunching on PRC. Usually Macquarie has some very good mining research, but unfortunately they do not have as up-to-date report on PRC.

High coal prrice and weakness in $NZ = good fundamentals

[RossT]

The fundamentals are indeed lined up like big dollar signs for PRC, it really just remains to see how PRC actually go at getting the coal out of the ground. ( Not meaning to state the obvious ).

Taking an even 1,000,000 tonnes output per year, is having to load a rail wagon ( 50 tn ) EVERY 26 minutes and 17 seconds, around the clock, 365 days a year. Will be interesting to see how they go.

Disc: Currently worried I don't hold enough PRC.

[manxman]

Taking an even 1,000,000 tonnes output per year, is having to load a rail wagon ( 50 tn ) EVERY 26 minutes and 17 seconds, around the clock, 365 days a year. Will be interesting to see how they go.



Thats about two trains per day, each of 30 wagons, which they should be able to load with the train rolling at a walking pace. Leave Middleton in the morning with an empty rake, load up and get back to Otira for a late lunch.
OK, the constraints of tunnel capacity and rolling stock supply probably mean some loading at unsociable hours, but thats railfreight.

Don't expect to see an operation like Stillwater where a single front end loader takes five minutes per wagon to load the train, with crew, loco and wagons all idling for hours.

PRC aren't spending millions to build the second best loading facility on the coast.

Mx

[Mysterybox]

Today is a good day :D

$1.54 ! Loving PRC

Bought into VPE today, got in at 18, at 20.5 atm 2 hours later.. 14% in two hours..

so sick.

^_^!

[Dr_Who]

Today is a good day :D

$1.54 ! Loving PRC

Bought into VPE today, got in at 18, at 20.5 atm 2 hours later.. 14% in two hours..

so sick.

^_^!

I am so please for you Mysterybox. :)

Today is a good day for energy stocks. My portfolio is looking great! :)

[AMR]

Nicely timed!

I'm looking at the VPEO's now...but we'll leave that for the other thread.

[The BOWMAN]

But why the price jumped up so much today though? Anybody knows?

[digger]

[QUOTE=The BOWMAN;198245]But why the price jumped up so much today though? Anybody knows?[/QUOTE

May guess is that it is long overdue,plus getting ever closer to that coal,plus caol options must be just around the corner. At IPO some mention of options in 6 months or longer was said from memory. Also the world coal outlook is improving weekly if you are a coal seller.
Do you need any more reasons.
Perhaps a far better question was 'Why did it take the market soooo long to realise that PIKE was always going to be a winner.

[Rabbi]

But why the price jumped up so much today though? Anybody knows?

Probably an overseas institution bought early in the day and forced the people on the sideline to buy.
No new information to speak of, but I agree with digger, Pike is a cash Cow in the waiting.

[tim23]

Digger I recall mention of an options type bous issue as well, anyone have the exact details?

[manxman]

Didn't we just have an options excercise in February where they gave me a swag of shares for 90c which are now on the north side of $1.40?

Certainly McDunk reckoned that they were only worth 90 cents but I got my bonus then, and, given the total adequacy of the current capital structure, I cannot see any further corporate action. Just go for the coal.

Mx

[bermuda]

Didn't we just have an options excercise in February where they gave me a swag of shares for 90c which are now on the north side of $1.40?

Certainly McDunk reckoned that they were only worth 90 cents but I got my bonus then, and, given the total adequacy of the current capital structure, I cannot see any further corporate action. Just go for the coal.

Mx

As I said before I was tempted to sell everything and put it into PRC. This was a while ago before this spurt ( which I might add is only the beginning ) PRC could easily go to $2.50 quite shortly.

However the emergence of Queensland Coal Seam Gas was too attractive. In the past week a lot of people have woken up to exactly what British Gas is up to. If anyone is interested read the QGC file. And then buy into unnoticed Coal Seam Gas companies.

[Sideshow Bob]

But why the price jumped up so much today though? Anybody knows?


Easy!! Because at the weekend I was talking about pouring some more money in!!

[manxman]

Didn't we just have an options excercise in February where they gave me a swag of shares for 90c which are now on the north side of $1.40?

Certainly McDunk reckoned that they were only worth 90 cents but I got my bonus then, and, given the total adequacy of the current capital structure, I cannot see any further corporate action. Just go for the coal.

Mx

[tim23]

Manxman - that was a rights issue we have juts had, I'm thinking of a free options issue similar to what NOG did a couple of years ago.

[digger]

As I said before I was tempted to sell everything and put it into PRC. This was a while ago before this spurt ( which I might add is only the beginning ) PRC could easily go to $2.50 quite shortly.

However the emergence of Queensland Coal Seam Gas was too attractive. In the past week a lot of people have woken up to exactly what British Gas is up to. If anyone is interested read the QGC file. And then buy into unnoticed Coal Seam Gas companies.

Bermuda good luck with your new venture. I am going to stick with the winner i have.A bit like no changing horses mid stream,or is it a bird in the hand.Waited too long with things just starting to happen so will stay where i am,with what i know.

[Base Trader]

But why the price jumped up so much today though? Anybody knows?

The buying is a result of buying off the higher forecasted met coal prices. Key international research came out on Thursday evening picking US$300 for 09/10, US$285 for 10/11, US$225 for 11/12. I am not sure if it is McClosky or Macquaurie or both - I need to ask my source - but it is far more robust and respected than the NZ Brokers in any case. The spot market is trading at US$400+mat the moment and the tightness is unlikely to come out of this until some time in 2009.

Given these numbers are correct or even close to correct the value of this share is well in excess of NZ$1.56 also.

[bermuda]

Bermuda good luck with your new venture. I am going to stick with the winner i have.A bit like no changing horses mid stream,or is it a bird in the hand.Waited too long with things just starting to happen so will stay where i am,with what i know.

Understand completely. I dont like changing horses either. I hated doing it. Trouble is I found myself a couple of Christian Cullen's....and dont worry I still have quite a few PRC so will enjoy the ride. Same goes for NZO.

Like I said to you before. You and your family deserve the rewards for the hard work you have put into your farm and the wisdom and tenacity you have shown towards NZO and PRC. And boy we have had our fair share of knockers eh?!

[manxman]

Yes Tim, I see what you are talking about, but given that PRC seem to have no funding requirements, any options issue would only make sense if there was a development target (like the Paparoa seam) which needed capital. Now that PRC don't need money, the banks will lend them plenty. (Banking 101 - Only lend to people who don't need the money)

My pick is that there will be a lot of in-seam drilling, some of which will look at the Paparoa seam, and there wil be no new capital proposals until a genuine development is on the horizon.

A good time to relax and enjoy life.

Mx

[COLIN]

Like I said to you before. You and your family deserve the hard work you have put into your farm and the wisdom and tenacity you have shown towards NZO and PRC. And boy we have had our fair share of knockers eh?!

Digger: I think what Bermuda means is: "You..........deserve REWARDS for the hard work.......................farm." Otherwise it sounds like "a well-deserved sentence requiring hard labour."

And Bermuda: Many thanks for your advice re CSG "sleepers". I see that my modest investments in SHG and VPE performed well today - hopefully RPM will stir some interest, too, but I guess it is just a tiddler in a big pond and gets barely noticed.

Am happy with my PRC, too. I only hopped on board once it got to 127, so missed the run-up from 90, but had been waiting to make sure that the advance was quite solid - and also was relying on the fact that I was gaining some benefit through my holding in NZO.

[the machine]

if you look at the tunnel map on prc website, it now shows a grey colour where one assumes the pit bottom has been concreted - very colour co-ordinated.

M

[sideline]

The buying is a result of buying off the higher forecasted met coal prices. Key international research came out on Thursday evening picking US$300 for 09/10, US$285 for 10/11, US$225 for 11/12. I am not sure if it is McClosky or Macquaurie or both - I need to ask my source - but it is far more robust and respected than the NZ Brokers in any case. The spot market is trading at US$400+mat the moment and the tightness is unlikely to come out of this until some time in 2009.

Given these numbers are correct or even close to correct the value of this share is well in excess of NZ$1.56 also.

Another factor could be the takeover talks going on around McArthur Coal.
See article on Bllomberg: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=aFz3401PtXUI&refer=australia
With a round of M&A and takeovers in the coking coal industry PRC could be a prime target
once production has started.(i.e.soon)

[Base Trader]

Another factor could be the takeover talks going on around McArthur Coal.
See article on Bllomberg: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=aFz3401PtXUI&refer=australia
With a round of M&A and takeovers in the coking coal industry PRC could be a prime target
once production has started.(i.e.soon)

The price outlook for Met Coal and Met Coal producers is very bullish. The potential reduction of key players (who control 75% of the Intl traded market) from 3 to 2 is bullish in itself. You throw in a fundamental weakness in deliver infrastructure and the lag to expanding production and transport logistics and US$300 til 2010 is realistic. The other effect that remains opaque but is the gorilla in the corner is that at present only 220m mt of 900m mt met coal consumed annually is traded internationally. That means that 670m mt is produced from mostly Chinese and former CIS for use in domestic steel production. I have to say, that if a US$300 mt price cannot drag out supply, and we see the Chinese swinging from exporter to very small importer that this maybe telling the story that this opaque supply may be creaking under the strain of outdated infrastructure or dwinding reserves.

We only know what the supply of met coal is because you need 1mt of met coal to produce 1 mt of steel. There are no real figures available outside the the seaborne traded numbers for met coal although we do have finished steel numbers. For the first time the Ukraine is in the Intl market buying met coal (2m mt of total 19m mt steel production). If the Chinese enter this market - we have a real bun fight on our hands. This is the gorilla no one has counted on. It may not happen but there is a free option in the market at the moment so no biggie if it does not.

India is looking to add a further 35m mt - 50 m mt over the next 5-7 years and this will need Intl traded met coal. Hence, there is a production increase needed to keep pace with deamnd.

I see no value in selling this Company nor allowing a takeover unless it is at fantastic numbers. The current and projected prices will allow small project mistakes to be managed and I am adding to my stake awaiting first coal supply and into March 2009 met coal price negotiations.

I predicted in earlier posts while we were at circa $1.20 that this was a $2 share by July. I believe given project exection that that number is a formality and $3 is not far behind that - although $3+ value may be hampered until March/April 2009 met coal negotiations are completed. I recognise these appear bold claims but I have infrequently seen a company with so much coming together at the right time.

Anyway, all good fodder for the posters if I get it wrong.

[digger]

Spot on Base Trader.I have nothing to add can only agree.Although i would point out it is with humor i noted the very exceptional consertive hard coking coal prices projected forward in the latest quarterly. It has it ranging from 90 to 120 US in the years ahead. ME thinks that NZO and PIKE like future upgrades.Talk about small promice followed by large delivery.

[The BOWMAN]

But why the price jumped up so much today though? Anybody knows?
Went home and saw the activity report in the mail yesterday and I think that explains it. Just shows how many investors aren't actually well informed or actively searching for information about their investment. Yesterday might be the first day for them to hear the $300/t price.

[Dr_Who]

$1.60! WOOT

The sp will over take NZO soon... LOL :D

PRC and NZO shareholders should throw a party! :D

[friedegg]

the sp hasnt but the market cap already has

[Sideshow Bob]

You wont reget it Bob. This is as good as a 6 inch putt.
$1.60 by Christmas.


I didn't realise that Christmas was this week!!!

Good on ya Bermuda. Hope the form is good.

[Mysterybox]

Yeah thanks Bermuda and other speculators, you've done us all well :)

[tim23]

When will PRC get in to the top 50 or is there not enough free flow of shares?

[bermuda]

Yeah thanks Bermuda and other speculators, you've done us all well :)

Mysterybox,

This was not speculation. See you at the National Convention.

[Bilo]

Yeah thanks Bermuda and other speculators, you've done us all well :)

In my reading today an interview with Buffet:

Then Buffet said one of the most remarkable things I've ever heard him say: "There's no reason we should become fearful if a stock goes down. If a stock goes down 50%, I'd look forward to it. In fact, I would offer you a significant sum of money if you could give me the opportunity for all of my stocks to go down 50% over the next month."

Look at that sentence again. What Buffett is actually saying is that most people's emotions work backwards: They get greedy when stock prices go up and fearful when they go down. Instead, if you are a true investor, you should shop for stocks the same way you shop for anything else: Look for sale prices, and never regard falling prices as inherently bad news. Instead, falling prices create the opportunity to buy even more of something that was already worth owning.

In that single sentence Buffett captured the difference between investing and speculating: An investor, like Buffett, wants the price of a stock to fall below the value of its underlying business so he can buy even more and hold for as long as possible. A speculator (like Jim Cramer) only wants the price of a stock to go up, with no regard for the value of the underlying business at all, so he can sell as fast as possible. To the investor, the market's opinions do not matter. To the speculator, they are the only thing that matters.

[Mysterybox]

Thanks Bilo for that insight, that really is a clearcut example of emotions in the marketplace and my applogies Bermuda that was a bad choice of words, I am now better informed.

[Dr_Who]

When will PRC get in to the top 50 or is there not enough free flow of shares?


Good question. Anyone know the answer?

[Dr_Who]

PRC sp leads NZO by 1 cent.. LOL

Xstrata Says Coal Output Fell on Australian Floods
Xstrata Plc, the world's largest exporter of coal used by power plants, said first-quarter output fell 3.6 percent after floods cut supplies from Australian mines. Production dropped to 18.5 million metric tons from 19.2 million tons a year earlier, Zug, Switzerland-based Xstrata said today in a statement. Copper output advanced 1.8 percent to 219,978 tons, while nickel slid 15 percent to 11,785 tons.
In February, Xstrata advised customers of delays to deliveries from two mines in Queensland. Monsoon rains in the state's Bowen Basin also hurt output at rivals including BHP Billiton Ltd. and Rio Tinto Group, helping to push spot prices for coking coal to records.
The financial and operational outlook for 2008 remains ``very positive,'' Xstrata said.
Xstrata rose 113 pence, or 2.7 percent, to 4,304 pence in London, the highest closing price since the shares started trading in 2001. The stock has gained 21 percent this year, valuing the company at 42 billion pounds ($83.1 billion).
Supplies of thermal coal for the 2008-09 Japanese contract year were settled at $125 a metric ton, Xstrata said. Contract prices for coking coal used in steelmaking, which Xstrata hasn't settled yet, will ``significantly exceed'' 2007 levels.
Last month, Asian steelmakers agreed to triple to $300 a ton the price paid to BHP and Mitsubishi Corp. for coking coal. While Xstrata lifted the force majeure at its Rolleston mines in March, the situation remains ``under review'' at the Newlands complex, the company said today. Force majeure is a clause that allows companies to miss deliveries because of circumstances beyond their control.
Copper Driver
Chief Executive Officer Mick Davis has lifted Xstrata's sales more than 15-fold in five years through acquisitions and expansions in copper, nickel and coal. Copper made up 46 percent of 2007 earnings before interest and tax, nickel 24 percent, zinc 17 percent and coal 8 percent, Xstrata said in March.
Copper output at the Collahuasi mine in Chile increased despite adverse weather conditions, due to improvements to equipment, Xstrata said. The company owns the mine, its largest, alongside Anglo American Plc.
A six-year rally in copper driven by increased demand from nations including China, the largest user, and curbs in supply helped boost Xstrata's profit 13 percent last year. The company, whose biggest shareholder is Swiss commodity trader Glencore International AG, is the world's fourth-largest copper producer.
Nickel Decline
Mined nickel output fell because of bad weather in northern Canada and the planned shutdown at the Raglan mine, Xstrata said. The company added 800 tons of nickel during the quarter from the Jubilee Mines NL acquisition in Australia.
Production of zinc fell 4.2 percent to 205,682 tons because of equipment failure at the San Juan de Nieva plant in Spain, Xstrata said. Lead concentrate production from Mt. Isa mines in Australia jumped 21 percent to 64,572 tons as it recovered from production problems a year earlier.
Xstrata's output of alloys, including ferrochrome, advanced 4.5 percent to 305,000 tons following the return of previously idled capacity in South Africa, the company said. The benefit was partially offset by reduced electricity supply from Eskom Holdings Ltd. as a result of the national energy shortage.
Bloomberg - 7-May-08

[remy]

wow, prc takes over nzo.. did not expect that to happen at all 2-3 weeks ago.. It's all good when you hold both :)

[Rabbi]

PRC SP certainly still running hard under some momentum.

It must be getting close to fair value and I am wondering what the base case valuation would be. The project isn't entirely without risk at the moment, which makes me wonder what the SP might get to when the black stuff starts shooting down the slurry line.

[bermuda]

PRC SP certainly still running hard under some momentum.

It must be getting close to fair value and I am wondering what the base case valuation would be. The project isn't entirely without risk at the moment, which makes me wonder what the SP might get to when the black stuff starts shooting down the slurry line.

North of $3.00 and quickly

[Bilo]

North of $3.00 and quickly

Now that is better B!:)

[digger]

North of $3.00 and quickly

Hi Bermuda
So if from the cash issue of two months ago at 90 cents to over 3 dollars in say august is that not as good as your coal seam investments.Because if it is not warren Buffett could soon lose his king spot of world richest man to Bermuda.

[bermuda]

Now that is better B!:)

Bilo,
Best if you re-read my posts on both NZO and PRC. Then you will get a better picture.

Both have stardom written all over them.
As have BOW, PES, RPM.and VPE.

[bermuda]

Hi Bermuda
So if from the cash issue of two months ago at 90 cents to over 3 dollars in say august is that not as good as your coal seam investments.Because if it is not warren Buffett could soon lose his king spot of world richest man to Bermuda.

Dont worry Digger, I have still got PRC and NZO and put my bro into millions of them.We are having a ball ( as you are )

The reason I got into the Coal Seam play with BOW, PES, RPM, VPE and VPEO is because I want to join that "10 Baggers Club" ( I suppose when NZO hits $2.60 I can say I have had my first 10 Bagger but it's been a long haul.)

PRC is great but only a 3-4 Bagger.

You mentioned August...I didnt.

It has been a great ride and I am still on the train.

[Robomo]

Dont worry Digger, I have still got PRC and NZO and put my bro into millions of them.We are having a ball ( as you are )

The reason I got into the Coal Seam play with BOW, PES, RPM, VPE and VPEO is because I want to join that "10 Baggers Club" ( I suppose when NZO hits $2.60 I can say I have had my first 10 Bagger but it's been a long haul.)

PRC is great but only a 3-4 Bagger.


Forgive my ignorance but what is a "10 Bagger". And how do you calculate a 3 or 4 or 10 bagger? For the contrarians out there what is a minus bagger called?

[bermuda]

Forgive my ignorance but what is a "10 Bagger". And how do you calculate a 3 or 4 or 10 bagger? For the contrarians out there what is a minus bagger called?

Robomo,

Multiples of entry price.

And yes, I have to admit I had a minus 10 bagger back in the 87 crash. Robert Jones,

That nearly broke me and was a lesson learnt. Too scared to tell anyone at the time.

I look at things very very carefully now

[friedegg]

a 10 bagger on an investment of about 20 mill would net you about what that young sam got from selling trade me

[manxman]

Forgive my ignorance but what is a "10 Bagger". And how do you calculate a 3 or 4 or 10 bagger? For the contrarians out there what is a minus bagger called?

The term 3 bagger comes from baseball. A three base hit. First time I saw it used was in Peter Lynch's book on investing. He ran a large funding group beginning with "M"

It's past wine o'clock and I will recall the name of the book in the morning, but a ten bagger doesn't exist in baseball. By Peter Lynch's extension you must have multiplied your capital 10 times.

If you lost your bag you may have a colostomy. Any suggestions short of gross indecency?

Mx

[tim23]

Robomo - ask Duncan about baggers, hes had more than everyone on this site

[Robomo]

Thanks guys. So that means my 90c PRC investment :) is moving along towards the 1 bagger mark but my PPL investment :( is more at the colostomy end.

[tim23]

PRC is maybe a 7/9 bagger the expert could explain?

[The BOWMAN]

Just read the news that China is cutting coal on power generaion as it is critically low on reserve. Many power station only has the reserve for less than a week. I think I definitly preffer the old days (I mean 2 month ago) when PRC is only a dollar. I could continue pour my money into it happily. Now it is a bit expensive and since I am not selling, the higher price doesn't bring me any benefit.

[fish]

Just read the news that China is cutting coal on power generaion as it is critically low on reserve. Many power station only has the reserve for less than a week. I think I definitly preffer the old days (I mean 2 month ago) when PRC is only a dollar. I could continue pour my money into it happily. Now it is a bit expensive and since I am not selling, the higher price doesn't bring me any benefit.

Why not buy into nzo-it is so cheap no debts cash flow spectacular-$6 million sales a week(no gst as exported )-minimal expenses-best prospects of any company in nz and good exposure to prc .
The market has been very slow to recognise this-it is unlikely that you will find a better time to buy in-soon all the options will be in the hands of those that have the money to convert , When tui upgrade is announced the sp may rocket .

[The BOWMAN]

Why not buy into nzo-it is so cheap no debts cash flow spectacular-$6 million sales a week(no gst as exported )-minimal expenses-best prospects of any company in nz and good exposure to prc .
The market has been very slow to recognise this-it is unlikely that you will find a better time to buy in-soon all the options will be in the hands of those that have the money to convert , When tui upgrade is announced the sp may rocket .

Got loads of options on hand already and ready to convert by the end of June. :) However I actually think PRC is better than NZO because of longer production life and no extra exploration costs. IMHO, PRC is still better value than NZO.

[Billy Boy]

Got loads of options on hand already and ready to convert by the end of June. :) However I actually think PRC is better than NZO because of longer production life and no extra exploration costs. IMHO, PRC is still better value than NZO.
Quite correct Bowman
It wont be long before us PRC'ers will be Doing a takeover on
you's NZO"ers Rights or no rights..... so there :D:D:D
BB:D

[fish]

Got loads of options on hand already and ready to convert by the end of June. :) However I actually think PRC is better than NZO because of longer production life and no extra exploration costs. IMHO, PRC is still better value than NZO.

All wise investments but we willhave to agree to differ on which is ther best

i also hold loads prc but feel nzo is a safer winner-Its earning nearly a million dollars a day and has very limited risk .By contrast prc is not yet producing and has risk at every stage of production to export-perhaps most notably prolonged strike action-pike
transrail and lyttleton could be picketed by all and sundry

They should both do well but I prefer nzo for its current production and greater diversity .
I expect to be holding both for a long time . Actually have just bought more nzood options on seeing the kiwi drop today and tapis hitting a new record

[The BOWMAN]

All wise investments but we willhave to agree to differ on which is ther best

i also hold loads prc but feel nzo is a safer winner-Its earning nearly a million dollars a day and has very limited risk .By contrast prc is not yet producing and has risk at every stage of production to export-perhaps most notably prolonged strike action-pike
transrail and lyttleton could be picketed by all and sundry

They should both do well but I prefer nzo for its current production and greater diversity .
I expect to be holding both for a long time . Actually have just bought more nzood options on seeing the kiwi drop today and tapis hitting a new record

I say the greatest risk is the green party or the greeny protesters. TUI field is a bit difficult for them to do something stupid.

[Robomo]

More coal contracts in Canada being settled at US$300 per tonne. Interesting to see the share price of this existing mine has gone up 146% in the past year and up by a third since the end of April.

http://in.reuters.com/article/rbssEnergyNews/idINN0729970720080507

[Tok3n]

Just read the news that China is cutting coal on power generaion as it is critically low on reserve. Many power station only has the reserve for less than a week. I think I definitly preffer the old days (I mean 2 month ago) when PRC is only a dollar. I could continue pour my money into it happily. Now it is a bit expensive and since I am not selling, the higher price doesn't bring me any benefit.

PRC is coking coal not thermal coal.

[Placebo]

I say the greatest risk is the green party or the greeny protesters. TUI field is a bit difficult for them to do something stupid.


Just because a facility is offshore doesn't insulate it from protest. What if some loony a la the Waihopai protesters decided to take an axe or three to the pipeline from Tui or Kupe? Or some kind of uber-storm knocks over a rig or two?

To speculate on what might happen around Pike River's supply chain is a bit silly. Yes they are open to protest action but so are many producers - and how do you quantify this?

The good news is, PRC don't have to pay secret agents to infiltrate the protest groups because Govt-owned Solid Energy is already doing it for them. ;) :)

[The BOWMAN]

PRC is coking coal not thermal coal.

I knew that but doesn't thermal coal price also has some impact on coking coal price?

[Billy Boy]

Why havent PIKE updated their tunnel progress ??
BB

[COLIN]

Hi Bermuda,
I've held a bunch of NZO and PRC for some time now. I have a few extra bob to invest and am interested in your BOW, PES RPM and VPE selections. I assume you are a fan of the coal seam gas stories? Would you mind giving me some insight into which one in particular I should throw my money into? I'm looking for the best return within a 1-3 year timeframe without too much risk or continual capital raising through rights etc.
Cheers
Rich

Richmo - have you looked at the ASX threads? Bermuda has covered these matters extensively there, more recently under VPE in particular. But start first with the Coal Seam Gas thread.
Bermuda - I'm sure you don't want to have to repeat everything on the NZX Forum. And by the way, I'm already $6,000 up, on getting into BOW, VPE, & RPM. My grateful thanks, again, for your steer. I'm sure there is much more to come.

[The BOWMAN]

Why havent PIKE updated their tunnel progress ??
BB

They are still updating it each week. Read the text message in the diagram. They are working on the existing part and not digging the tunnel further at the moment.

[Wilkins_Micawber]

and showing signs of gathering momentum vs NZO's handbrake (NZOODs)

[the machine]

They are still updating it each week. Read the text message in the diagram. They are working on the existing part and not digging the tunnel further at the moment.


the grey colour for completed cement flooring is growing in the pit area as well

the drive towards coal will hopefully recommence later next week, after pit bottom cementing
and instalation works advanced

M

[the machine]

a guy at work was telling me today that prc is on his radar - was a bit surprised by that but guess sp appreciatation sticks out big time

M

[tim23]

Was he a guru of some sort or just a stock broker?

[the machine]

Was he a guru of some sort or just a stock broker?

no, just a guy who has friends working in resource sector and some sort of investment group of friends and pike is on their radar as well


was rapped that someone else in the office knows about pike.

am more rapped about the sp appreciation though and the graph shows its reaching for the skys.

as for my investment in pike, won't trade them, instead look forward to steady dividends in years to come - hopefully more than enough to pay for a very nice holiday every year for next 20 years or so.

M

[Excelsior]

Hi Posters, just joined forum. Over exposed to PRC and loving the ride. Having barely broken even with investments over 25 years hooking into a winner is a new experience. Getting a bit nervous about the heady SP - so interested in Bowmans and Fish touching on Risks. What's the most likely scenario which would cause a sudden retracement back to a dollar say - Tunnel Collapse, no coal after fault, quality of coal poorer? Whats the chance of such event. Anybody got any coal face experience so to speak who could quantify the risks. Might have to sell half my PRC and buy that laggard NZOG 4 safety.

[digger]

Hi Posters, just joined forum. Over exposed to PRC and loving the ride. Having barely broken even with investments over 25 years hooking into a winner is a new experience. Getting a bit nervous about the heady SP - so interested in Bowmans and Fish touching on Risks. What's the most likely scenario which would cause a sudden retracement back to a dollar say - Tunnel Collapse, no coal after fault, quality of coal poorer? Whats the chance of such event. Anybody got any coal face experience so to speak who could quantify the risks. Might have to sell half my PRC and buy that laggard NZOG 4 safety.

Welcome Excelsior,

You have the honour of being the first poster ever to make a comment which i am unable to read more of than the first line before i have to reply. And that is still a fact,even now i have not read the rest.
Would you please tell me how it is possibly to be overexposed to a share that has gone from 90 cents in the last month and a half to 1-65 today.Your use of words seems to be out of charactor with reality.

[fish]

Hi Posters, just joined forum. Over exposed to PRC and loving the ride. Having barely broken even with investments over 25 years hooking into a winner is a new experience. Getting a bit nervous about the heady SP - so interested in Bowmans and Fish touching on Risks. What's the most likely scenario which would cause a sudden retracement back to a dollar say - Tunnel Collapse, no coal after fault, quality of coal poorer? Whats the chance of such event. Anybody got any coal face experience so to speak who could quantify the risks. Might have to sell half my PRC and buy that laggard NZOG 4 safety.

Stay with prc but cash in other investments to buy nzood.
nzo should be part of the portfolio of every investor in the sharemarket-it currently has the highest p/e ratio of any nzx share and I have no doubt the brightest future .
Prc will do well in the short term but there are major long term risks-paricularly after the first decade.
The chinese blast furnaces are major co2 polluters -?will nations impose taxes on steel produced this way.
Steel can be produced in much cleaner ways without using coking coal.
Demand for coking coal could drop enough to make prc unproductive to mine.
But we are unlikely to see this in the next few years .
Short-term risks -everything from earthquakes to explosions to strikes

[digger]

OK i have read the rest. Pike is most likely just playing catchup to somewhere where it should be. For the last three years we have had whatever preceived or invented bad news thrown at the company. This has been so much so that even the road to the tunnel was full of supposed risks that never really existed except in a PIKE knocker deranged mind.The tunnel was going to take 100 years to drill and collacpe ever 6 months ,etc,etc. So much of PIKE recent upgrade can be put to it's former downgrade. O f coa-rse the coal price has helped for sure but even with that going forward the coal price is already knocked down to falling to 1-25. The reality is that with the current 300 it will likely stay north of 250. We had all this with oil at 50,but with oil i lately notice that future prices are slowly turning to believe the future prices will not fall. Coal wouldn't either or any other mineral. Electricy is the next big up mover
Has it occured to you that we should drop wishing other merry christmas and in its place overexpose them to PIKE..You must have top sleeps and i would not bother wishing good dreams as all you have to do is wake up and face another day's exposure to PIKE to have more than your share of euphoria.
Seriously for 2008 prc nzo and ppp could well all end up in 2008 top 10 preforming shares,if not better and a lot of that success is born from past knocker depressing the real value.Much of it is catchup.
cheers Excelsior

[Dr_Who]

Welcome Excelsior,

You have the honour of being the first poster ever to make a comment which i am unable to read more of than the first line before i have to reply. And that is still a fact,even now i have not read the rest.
today.

BRICKS has a competitor.. LOL :D

[Excelsior]

OK i have read the rest. Pike is most likely just playing catchup to somewhere where it should be. For the last three years we have had whatever preceived or invented bad news thrown at the company. This has been so much so that even the road to the tunnel was full of supposed risks that never really existed except in a PIKE knocker deranged mind.The tunnel was going to take 100 years to drill and collacpe ever 6 months ,etc,etc. So much of PIKE recent upgrade can be put to it's former downgrade. O f coa-rse the coal price has helped for sure but even with that going forward the coal price is already knocked down to falling to 1-25. The reality is that with the current 300 it will likely stay north of 250. We had all this with oil at 50,but with oil i lately notice that future prices are slowly turning to believe the future prices will not fall. Coal wouldn't either or any other mineral. Electricy is the next big up mover
Has it occured to you that we should drop wishing other merry christmas and in its place overexpose them to PIKE..You must have top sleeps and i would not bother wishing good dreams as all you have to do is wake up and face another day's exposure to PIKE to have more than your share of euphoria.
Seriously for 2008 prc nzo and ppp could well all end up in 2008 top 10 preforming shares,if not better and a lot of that success is born from past knocker depressing the real value.Much of it is catchup.
cheers Excelsior

Hi Digger, thnx for your comments. I wish you sweet dreams too.
SP has run very hard very quickly and some temporary retracement is probably due. Haven't been dips in the SP recently so no idea what volatility to expect. TA no use on vertical lines either.
In for the long term on this one but would sleep even better with a firm stop loss. But where to set it to avoid getting spat B4 the fun really begins?

[Dr_Who]

a guy at work was telling me today that prc is on his radar - was a bit surprised by that but guess sp appreciatation sticks out big time

M

Maybe time to look at selling some if the hairdressers are talking about PRC... LOL :D:D

[Steve]

I have sold a chunk of my PRC, with the balance effectively costing me nothing (even after allowing for my holding costs to date).

While I may stand accused of cutting a winner, my original plan was to reduce my holding once $1.60 was hit so at least I can't be accused of not sticking to my plan... :)

[the machine]

Maybe time to look at selling some if the hairdressers are talking about PRC... LOL :D:D

good one

M

[Rabbi]

I am certain that if they can stick to their timetable, ie. coal seam by July etc. etc., the SP still has considerable upside. But what we don't know is if anything unforseen will occur which might set the project back. I suppose it depends whether the SP is going up on hype or fundamentals. I know oilers are renowned for being ramped up on exploration hype, but I would't think Pike would fall into this category.

If it's all too good to be true it usually is.!

[Wilkins_Micawber]

Maybe time to look at selling some if the hairdressers are talking about PRC... LOL :D:D

The original quote was


no, just a guy who has friends working in resource sector and some sort of investment group of friends and pike is on their radar as well
M

Personally, I wouldn't hairdressers in the same category as "a guy with contacts in the resource sector", or "an investment group", esp. considering that an investment group is effectively like a group of us who use this forum.

[Phaedrus]

TA no use on vertical lines either.
In for the long term on this one but would sleep even better with a firm stop loss. But where to set it to avoid getting spat B4 the fun really begins?

TA no use with PRC's steep uptrend? Who sez?

Here are 7 TA suggestions for PRC exit strategies. Buy signals are marked with green arrows, sell signals with red. These indicators are arranged approximately according to their degree of activity/sensitivity, with the most active indicator as #1. This would be used by quite active traders and should maximise returns at the expense of greater activity.

You can't get something for nothing here, people. If you use a relatively conservative indicator just to keep you in the overall uptrend, any exit signal (when it comes) will be late. An active indicator will get you out much earlier, but will also trigger sell signals at each and every significant correction, necessitating re-entry each time if you wanted to stay with PRC. Not everyone wants to trade like that.

The idea here is to select indicators appropriate to your preferred activity level, risk tolerance and investment philosophy. There is nothing sacrosanct about the 10 day ema for example. There is no reason whatsover why you should not use a 5 day ema if you want a really fast, very sensitive indicator or a much longer period if you prefer a slower less active, more conservative indicator.

Have I made it all too complicated and confused you with too many options? One very simple approach would be to watch for price action to break below the confirmed trendline (green line) and/or a break of the OBV trendline.

Any exit strategy (even one that errs on the conservative side) is better than none at all.

What would the PRC shareprice have to do to convince you to take your profits?

Can you see why Steve's plan (to sell when a specific predetermined target price was reached) is not a good one?


http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/PRC511.gif

[Excelsior]

Thnx Phaedrus - learnt heaps from your posts so good to have your input here.

Your graphs are always so compelling in hindsight to me. Hope you bought in yourself on the first green. Graphs gr8 at providing trading signals.
Not wishing to trade I'm looking 4 early warning of a catastrophic collapse, or a means of avoiding ongoing erosion of shareprice. Tempted to sell at the end of any day where shareprice is 20% below previous days close, or should the shareprice recede to 2/3 of its year high.
So on Fridays chart would be 30 day ma if rapid unwinding or 60 day ma on slow unwinding. But my strategy not tied to any chart indicator.
Also good on you Steve - you couldn't be in at a lower cost price now.

Onwards and Upwards
Excelsior

[Phaedrus]

"Not wishing to trade I'm looking 4 early warning of a catastrophic collapse.......Tempted to sell at the end of any day where shareprice is 20% below previous days close."
That would already be a "catastrophic collapse", surely! It is very rare to get drops of that magnitude in a single day. If you are looking for early warning of such an event, the sell signal would need to be more sensitive than the event itself.

"I'm looking 4..... a means of avoiding ongoing erosion of shareprice.....Tempted to sell should the shareprice recede to 2/3 of its year high."
That is a 33% Trailing Stop. Let's pretend that PRC peaked today at $1.67 then went into a relentless steady downtrend, losing a cent every day. The price would need to fall to below $1.11 before your stop was hit. It would not have enabled you to avoid "ongoing erosion of shareprice" and you would have given most all of your profit back to the market. Excelsior, in my opinion this stop is so wide it is all but useless.

"But my strategy not tied to any chart indicator "
The tentative strategies you have outlined are technical chart indicators.

"Good on you Steve - you couldn't be in at a lower cost price now."
Steve was selling, not buying - at a time when PRC was looking very strong. The old adage is "cut your losses and let your profits run". At $1.60, Steve sold down a stock that was in a strong uptrend with no sign of technical weakness. With today's rise to $1.67, his mistake is already painfully obvious. Steve had set a fixed sell "target". There is no logical reason to resolve to sell at some completely arbitrary point.

Some people have crazy ideas about selling. One guy I know has the policy of selling half of any holding on which he has doubled his money. He then brags that what is left is a "free carry" or somesuch nonsense. What an idiot! Whenever he lucks on to a very good stock he halves his investment in it! In my opinion, it is foolish to set any fixed price target - no-one knows how high the stock might go. So long as it is going up, you want to be holding it - and the more money you have on it, the better.

Let your profits run.

[COLIN]

"Not wishing to trade I'm looking 4 early warning of a catastrophic collapse.......Tempted to sell at the end of any day where shareprice is 20% below previous days close."
That would already be a "catastrophic collapse", surely! It is very rare to get drops of that magnitude in a single day. If you are looking for early warning of such an event, the sell signal would need to be more sensitive than the event itself.

"I'm looking 4..... a means of avoiding ongoing erosion of shareprice.....Tempted to sell should the shareprice recede to 2/3 of its year high."
That is a 33% Trailing Stop. Let's pretend that PRC peaked today at $1.67 then went into a relentless steady downtrend, losing a cent every day. The price would need to fall to below $1.11 before your stop was hit. It would not have enabled you to avoid "ongoing erosion of shareprice" and you would have given most all of your profit back to the market. Excelsior, in my opinion this stop is so wide it is all but useless.

"But my strategy not tied to any chart indicator "
The tentative strategies you have outlined are technical chart indicators.

"Good on you Steve - you couldn't be in at a lower cost price now."
Steve was selling, not buying - at a time when PRC was looking very strong. The old adage is "cut your losses and let your profits run". At $1.60, Steve sold down a stock that was in a strong uptrend with no sign of technical weakness. With today's rise to $1.67, his mistake is already painfully obvious. Steve had set a fixed sell "target". There is no logical reason to resolve to sell at some completely arbitrary point.

Some people have crazy ideas about selling. One guy I know has the policy of selling half of any holding on which he has doubled his money. He then brags that what is left is a "free carry" or somesuch nonsense. What an idiot! Whenever he lucks on to a very good stock he halves his investment in it! In my opinion, it is foolish to set any fixed price target - no-one knows how high the stock might go. So long as it is going up, you want to be holding it - and the more money you have on it, the better.

Let your profits run.


Excellent advice. Novice investors - and those not so new to the game (because even some "old hands" haven't yet learnt some of the basic lessons) - take extremely careful note. Whenever you are tempted to sell a decidedly uptrending share, ask yourself this question: "Am I going to use the proceeds to invest in another even more decidedly uptrending stock?" If the answer is "no", then why on earth would you want to sell?

[Dr_Who]

The original quote was



Personally, I wouldn't hairdressers in the same category as "a guy with contacts in the resource sector", or "an investment group", esp. considering that an investment group is effectively like a group of us who use this forum.

Was only joking mate.. LOL.

[Mysterybox]

Whenever you are tempted to sell a decidedly uptrending share, ask yourself this question: "Am I going to use the proceeds to invest in another even more decidedly uptrending stock?" If the answer is "no", then why on earth would you want to sell?


Some people have crazy ideas about selling. One guy I know has the policy of selling half of any holding on which he has doubled his money. He then brags that what is left is a "free carry" or somesuch nonsense. What an idiot!

THANK YOU, in regards to the selling half stock after doubling profits I constantly would argue this with my highschool economics teacher he loved the "free stocks" idea. Thats the question I would always ask myself and this was about a year before I began trading.

[duncan macgregor]

I might be they guy that you lot are hinting about. At the time i had four nickel stocks that doubled in price in a few months and sold half of each out. My reason was simple i no longer wanted to be an investor, as trading was far better. I left my initial stake in and cashed out the other half. This was done at the top of the market just as the nickel charts started to show weakness. The reason i left the half in and dont bother to look at the prices is quite simple.
They are all in good solid companies that are in good financial positions. My trading account sits in the bank waiting on the next opportunity that comes along. It might be property with mortgagee sales, or it might be roadkill on the stock market, after it crashes at the end of this year. The big mistake is to think you will get it right all the time, sitting it out in a downtrending market gives you time to work out your next best move.
I got the last crash in the stockmarket right, and was wise enough to get stuck into property, so who knows history might repeat. Macdunk

[tim23]

Duncan - which previous "crash" do you refer to?

PS If you are running 4 stocks for free you are still in the market aren't you?

[duncan macgregor]

Duncan - which previous "crash" do you refer to?

PS If you are running 4 stocks for free you are still in the market aren't you? TIM 87 crash saw it coming for ages. I nearly did get caught out however with GOLDCORP.
More good luck than good management i bought another property. I thought with a crash coming up gold would be the safe thing. When the opened the vault they found the cupboard was bare. Tim i am out the market in real terms i dont look on those four as anything other than an old love affair that i have happy memories with. Besides they cost me nothing i got my money back in seven months and on top of that i have four grandchildren which might make it interesting to hang on to pass along for student fees later on. Macdunk

[tim23]

Fair enough although this years market has techically seen a crash hasn't it?

[manxman]

Fair enough although this years market has techically seen a crash hasn't it?

Yes but strangely enough Wall Street has not entered a bear market (only down 19.7%) and the US has not entered a recession (GDP up 0.6%) but only hair splitting technicalities stand between me and the bear.

Does the bear understand the rules?

Mx

[NOCASH]

Brought large amount at 1.06 and another small buy at 1.16, i hope after i graduated i shall sell and put it on my first house deposit.

[Sideshow Bob]

How's the gym NOCASH?? Must be pretty musclely by now??

[The BOWMAN]

Some people have crazy ideas about selling. One guy I know has the policy of selling half of any holding on which he has doubled his money. He then brags that what is left is a "free carry" or somesuch nonsense. What an idiot! Whenever he lucks on to a very good stock he halves his investment in it! In my opinion, it is foolish to set any fixed price target - no-one knows how high the stock might go. So long as it is going up, you want to be holding it - and the more money you have on it, the better.

Let your profits run.
[/SIZE]

Couldn't agree more, always have to laugh when someone is claiming he has got free shares left in a company after sold the majority of the other shares. I almost never sell a share in part. The only exception is that I need some fund so I pick a least hopeful and cash in. When I sell, it is because I believe the share is going downwards and I always sell them all. Market value is what you worth, you don't have to sell to increase your fortune. Some people believes the profit and loss is only made at the time of sell. Therefore their decision is always influenced by the current and historical price difference, rather than the future and current price difference.

[NOCASH]

Sideshow, Been going great.. i put on 6kgs since 1 year and a half ago. The dividends i got from NZO paid for this year membership, also been busy reading up on books, currently reading, 'see you at the top' By Zig Ziglar

[duncan macgregor]

The trouble i have with PRC is its in NZ which has a falling dollar and a greenie GOVT. The falling dollar has given me a gain of about 11% in 17 months so far and looking set to continue. In Stuff today, i see the Aluminium smelter threatoning to close, throwing 3500 out of work if this global warming policy comes into play. Its alright now to burn coal in India to make steel, but not in NZ according to the greenies, who will surely turn on exporting it.
Sorry guys if it was in Australia it would be much more of a bargain than it is here where the country is rushing into closing the place down. Macdunk

[digger]

The trouble i have with PRC is its in NZ which has a falling dollar and a greenie GOVT. The falling dollar has given me a gain of about 11% in 17 months so far and looking set to continue. In Stuff today, i see the Aluminium smelter threatoning to close, throwing 3500 out of work if this global warming policy comes into play. Its alright now to burn coal in India to make steel, but not in NZ according to the greenies, who will surely turn on exporting it.
Sorry guys if it was in Australia it would be much more of a bargain than it is here where the country is rushing into closing the place down. Macdunk

That is one of your better post DM. Agree totally except about PIKE and the falling dollar.Here we stand to gain as most of the costs are behind us and the revenue will surely benifit from more NZ dollars.

[duncan macgregor]

That is one of your better post DM. Agree totally except about PIKE and the falling dollar.Here we stand to gain as most of the costs are behind us and the revenue will surely benifit from more NZ dollars. There i have to disagree with you digger. There is no difference if the dollar drops. You simply get more dollars that are worth less. If the dollar drops to fifty cents for instance you get paid twice as much which is still worth a similar ammount. Macdunk

[zorba]

.
But is not that exactly the point in investing in Pike or NZOG, a falling dollar will increase the profitability of these companies and hence dividends.

The investors return on investment is protected against the effects of the falling dollar !!

But maybe this all too much like Economics 101 for you McKDunk.

Z

[upside_umop]

I can see what your saying MacDunk, but you would then start to become a currency speculator.

You say if PRC was in Australia it would be a better buy. I dont see any difference in relative revenue. Because the AUD is stronger, relative revenue would be the same as NZD. The thing is, operating costs would be higher relative..and profitability would be less.

A falling dollar will do amazing things for PRC - imagine if they were to get their 60 cents or what ever they were after...

[tim23]

Yes falling $ has to be good for any exporter & PRC are just that, same was as F & P will benefit.

[the machine]

Australia Coal-Mine Floods Raise Costs of Cars, Planes, Washers

By [bn:PRSN=1] Jesse Riseborough []

May 13 (Bloomberg) -- At about 1 a.m. on Jan. 19, some of the heaviest rains in a century caused the Nogoa River in Queensland to burst its banks, sending 32 billion gallons of water into one of the largest coal mines in Australia.

``It was like watching Niagara Falls,'' said Peter Westerhuis, 46, general manager of operations for the mine's owner, Ensham Resources Pty. ``It filled the whole pit up in five hours.''

Almost four months later, two of Ensham's six coal mines, along with others owned by companies including Melbourne-based BHP Billiton Ltd., remain submerged. The greatest damage was in the Bowen Basin, the source of 40 percent of the world's steelmaking coal. As production fell, the price of coking coal tripled to a record $300 a metric ton last month, raising costs for the steel that goes into automobiles, airplanes and washers.

``There are only a couple of key producing coking coal regions in the world and this is the key one,'' said Mark Pervan, a commodity strategist with Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Melbourne. ``Anytime you put that sort of supply under a question mark, it's no surprise we have extremely high prices.''

The region's coal production this year may decline by as much as 15 million tons, or about 12 percent of Australia's annual exports, Macquarie Bank Ltd. analyst Jim Lennon said in a May 5 report. Meanwhile, global demand for steel will rise 6.7 percent this year, led by an 11.5 percent increase from China, according to the Brussels-based International Iron and Steel Institute.

`Huge Impact'

``When you look at it from a supply point of view, it is a huge impact,'' said Gerard Burg, a minerals and energy economist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Melbourne.

The rise in coal's cost, combined with record contract iron ore prices of at least $79 a ton, will add $160, or 18 percent, to the average cost of producing a ton of the grade of steel used in cars and appliances this year, according to Lennon's report.

In response, Asia's leading steelmakers, including Japan'S Nippon Steel Corp., China's Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., South Korea's Hyundai Steel Co. and Posco, Asia's third-biggest producer, all raised prices last month. Tokyo-based Nippon, the world's second-largest steel producer, agreed last month to pay $300 a ton, a threefold increase, for coal from the Bowen Basin.

Effects in Europe

The effects of Australia's flood also reached Europe. Luxembourg-based ArcelorMittal, the world's largest steelmaker, said last month it would add a surcharge of $250 a ton on some fixed-price contract shipments.

The average price for hot rolled coil, a benchmark steel product, will rise by $311 to $904 a ton this year because of the increase in raw materials costs, according to Lennon's report. Hot-rolled sheet steel used to make consumer products has already more than doubled in price in the past five years.

Toyota Motor Corp., Japan's biggest automaker, raised prices for some models in North America this month because of the jump in steel costs. The retail price for the Prius hybrid car will increase by 1.8 percent to $21,500, and a Yaris sedan, by 1.6 percent to $12,425, Toyota said May 4.

Prices for coking coal may rise again next year because of the extent of the flooding damage in Australia. Coal supplies are ``likely to remain extremely tight over the next 2-3 years,'' and the price may increase to more than $350 a ton in 2009, Credit Suisse Group analysts said in an April 28 report.

Widespread Disruption

``You are talking months here, not weeks,'' Ensham's Westerhuis said, referring to his timetable for repairs. ``This will be the biggest obstacle anybody has ever faced anywhere running a mine.''

Most of the 33 coal mines in the Bowen Basin lost production as a result of the floods, the Queensland Resources Council said.

Other companies with waterlogged mines include London-based Rio Tinto Group, the world's third-largest mining company, which last month reported a 27 percent quarterly decline in coking coal output and said shipment delays would continue.

BHP-Mitsubishi Alliance, the world's top exporter of coking coal, said output declined 25 percent in the quarter ended March 31. Limited coal production has resumed as repairs continue, the company said last month. BHP-Mitsubishi is a joint venture of BHP Billiton, the world's biggest mining business, and Tokyo-based Mitsubishi Corp., Japan's largest trading company.

Australians selling water removal equipment, on the other hand, are bullish.

``Business is fantastic,'' said Dave Miller, 38, the owner of Total Water Management in the Queensland coastal town of Mackay whose pumps are bailing water from the biggest mines in the Bowen Basin.

The Ensham mine, owned by Japanese oil refiner Idemitsu Kosan Co., won't be fully operational until early 2009 as it continues the cleanup, President Akihiko Tempo said in March.

About a third of the 32 billion gallons in the pits have so far been removed and deposited back into the Nogoa River.

``It might take a year to get 100 percent operation back at these affected pits,'' Westerhuis said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jesse Riseborough in Melbourne at jriseborough@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: May 12, 2008 10:01 EDT

[COLIN]

I had no idea that it was going to take that long to pump out all the water from all the mines. "Only a third so far removed". And the Bowen Basin supplies 40% of the world's coking coal requirements. No wonder the price has shot up so high.

(How easy would it be to sabotage the pumping equipment!?

[Mysterybox]

Also heared from a friend that Coal Seam Gas was mentioned on Talkback this morning, the usual financial advise guy. Apparently a company is going to be extracting CSG in Huntly(NZ) anyone know about this ?

[AMR]

Solid energy have been doing some drilling, they own a couple of fields in Waikato.

[zorba]

.
Coal Seam Gas in the Waikato/Huntly:

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/topic/story.cfm?c_id=273&objectid=10509487

[COLIN]

What has happened? And on a day that has seen an overall significant advance on the market. Has the roof of the mine fallen in? I haven't seen any announcement!
And I thought that a tumbling NZ dollar was supposed to be of benefit to PRC! (Too many exclamation marks, Colin!)

Seriously though, as I have conjectured before, I can't escape the feeling that a lot of PRC holders also hold NZOOD and are mustering funds to exercise those options by taking profits on PRC. Or does anyone else have a more feasible explanation of today's steady slide?

[Hoop]

What has happened? And on a day that has seen an overall significant advance on the market. Has the roof of the mine fallen in? I haven't seen any announcement!
And I thought that a tumbling NZ dollar was supposed to be of benefit to PRC! (Too many exclamation marks, Colin!)

Seriously though, as I have conjectured before, I can't escape the feeling that a lot of PRC holders also hold NZOOD and are mustering funds to exercise those options by taking profits on PRC. Or does anyone else have a more feasible explanation of today's steady slide?

Colin ..an uneducated guess......I think the market has got ahead of itself and is taking a breather. Lots of small sellers today so I assume profit taking. As with NZO it's been one hell of a party lately.

[sideline]

This article on Bloomberg should be positive for PRC too:

Wesfarmers More Than Triples Coking Coal Prices (Update2)

By Robert Fenner and Jesse Riseborough

May 16 (Bloomberg) -- Wesfarmers Ltd., the Australian retailer with businesses from supermarkets to mining, more than tripled the price it charges for coking coal from the Curragh mine amid rising global demand from steelmakers.

Australia's second-biggest retailer will get prices as high as $300 a metric ton, Perth-based Wesfarmers said today in a statement. Output from the mine in Queensland state will be within the company's forecast of 6.1 million to 6.5 million metric tons in the 12 months ending June 30, Wesfarmers said.

Coking coal prices have surged as floods in Queensland's Bowen Basin region disrupted supplies from mines which provide about 40 percent of the world's steelmaking coal. BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's largest producer of coking coal, and Nippon Steel Corp. agreed last month to a threefold increase in contract prices to $300 a ton.

Demand from customers in the second half remains ``very strong,'' Stewart Butel, managing director of Wesfarmers Resources said in the statement. The company was ``satisfied'' with the outcome of the pricing talks with customers, he said.

Wesfarmers rose 25 cents, or 0.6 percent, to A$40 at the 4:10 p.m. Sydney time close on the exchange.

Coal production from the Bowen Basin region this year may decline by as much as 15 million tons, Macquarie Bank Ltd. analyst Jim Lennon said in a May 5 report. Meanwhile, global demand for steel will rise 6.7 percent this year, led by an 11.5 percent increase from China, according to the Brussels-based International Iron and Steel Institute.

Prices for coking coal may rise again next year because of the extent of the flooding damage in Australia. Coal supplies are ``likely to remain extremely tight over the next 2-3 years,'' and the price may increase to more than $350 a ton in 2009, Credit Suisse Group analysts said in an April 28 report.

To contact the reporters on this story: Robert Fenner in Melbourne rfenner@bloomberg.net; Jesse Riseborough in Melbourne at jriseborough@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: May 16, 2008 02:53 EDT

[RossT]

Was it Warren Buffet who was quoted on this thread as saying that he loves sp tumbles as it gives an excellent opportunity to further buy into a stock that was already worth owning in the first place?

[Bilo]

What has happened? And on a day that has seen an overall significant advance on the market. Has the roof of the mine fallen in? I haven't seen any announcement!
And I thought that a tumbling NZ dollar was supposed to be of benefit to PRC! (Too many exclamation marks, Colin!)

Seriously though, as I have conjectured before, I can't escape the feeling that a lot of PRC holders also hold NZOOD and are mustering funds to exercise those options by taking profits on PRC. Or does anyone else have a more feasible explanation of today's steady slide?

The NZD is very good for PRC once they are producing and now that most of their o'seas expenditure is done. But if you are an Australian holding PRC then the AUD equivalent share price has gone down and is projected to go down further - it would make sense to sell PRC if you were holding PRC.ASX and trading short term. So a few are selling - an opportunity for Kiwis to mop up...

[the machine]

The NZD is very good for PRC once they are producing and now that most of their o'seas expenditure is done. But if you are an Australian holding PRC then the AUD equivalent share price has gone down and is projected to go down further - it would make sense to sell PRC if you were holding PRC.ASX and trading short term. So a few are selling - an opportunity for Kiwis to mop up...

am expecting the nz/au exchange rate will not be an issue once shipments start, as the actual sales will be in usd$.

meanwhile just have to accept the impact of a falling nz$ will have on the asx.

M

[Mysterybox]

Read that article on Bloom and was confused with this drop off, still, bought some more PRC at 1.54, cant believe it dropped off another 3cents in the last 20minutes!

[digger]

Looks like the pit bottom has finally finished with its cementing. The diagram shows it all grey so looks like we can soon return with getting on with the tunnel. Hawera fault in a week to 10 days.

[Sehnsucht888]

All on track at the mine...


PRC
19/05/2008
MINE

REL: 1621 HRS Pike River Coal Limited

MINE: PRC: Pike River Tunnel Advances

19 May 2008

PIKE RIVER TUNNEL TRACKING TO INTERSECT COAL SEAM IN JULY 2008

Pike River Coal Limited (Pike River) advises that excavation of the tunnel to
access the underground premium hard coking coal deposit recommenced on 19 May
2008. The advance of the main tunnel had been undertaken in parallel with
pit-bottom development since 18 December 2007. On 11 April 2008 the tunnel
halted to allow the last of the 471 metres of pit-bottom roadways to be
completed as well as considerable concrete works and other infrastructure
activities to be undertaken. Over 300 cubic metres of structural concrete
has been poured in the pit-bottom area to provide floors and walls for the
water and coal sumps as well as foundations for pump and electrical
installations. Additionally over 850 cubic metres of sprayed-on shotcrete has
been applied to the pit-bottom driveages to ensure the long term stability of
those openings. Other works completed in the tunnel during this period have
included the installation of the mine's high voltage power supply cables,
installation of gas monitoring and communications cabling, installation of
brackets to carry the slurry pipeline, and installation of the transformers
to supply the pumping systems located at pit-bottom.

In other project activities the coal preparation plant (CPP) is now 90%
complete with all of the major equipment installed in the plant and the
stack-out conveyors in place for both coal and reject material. Work has
also been well progressed on the mine workers bathhouse facilities which are
nearing completion; the installation of the return water line from the CPP to
the mine; and recruitment of operational personnel for the mine and CPP.

The tunnel is on track to intersect the Hawera fault located at approximately
2,100 metres later this month and to intersect the coal seam at approximately
2,300 metres in July 2008. With the roadheader ready to be put into service
as required on the western side of the Hawera fault, training of tradesmen
and operators on site has been completed.

Chief Executive Gordon Ward said "We have completed the scheduled eastern
area pit-bottom works on time and are on track for another important
milestone being driveage of the tunnel through the Hawera fault in May 2008".

[Mysterybox]

Great annoucement above =) anyone who read the announcement off ASX PRC will note my new desktop background that follows ;)

[trackers]

Wow, Pike River is on the front page of Stuff.co.nz, with photo:

Pike River Coal on target



Pike River Coal (PRC) is on its final drive towards a West Coast coal seam it hopes will obtain high coking-coal prices.

On Monday, the New Zealand Exchange-listed miner restarted the tunnel to access the underground premium hard-coking coal deposit at its Pike River mine, after completing pit-bottom work.
Chief executive Gordon Ward said yesterday the initial tunnel advance was halted to allow the last of the 471 metres of pit-bottom roadways to be completed, plus considerable concrete and infrastructure work.
While the miner remained on schedule, little chance existed to bring forward production of coal to export to Asia and take advantage of the $US300-a-tonne ($NZ394) benchmark price recently set overseas.
Ward pointed to a new McDouall Stuart report which says mining infrastructure bottlenecks in Australia have dominated the medium-term supply outlook.
There had been extreme weather events in both Australia and China leading to short-term supply pressure.
Unconstrained New Zealand miners were well placed to benefit from (benchmark) price coat-tailing, the report said.
Outside the tunnel pit area, Pike River's coal preparation plant (CPP) was 90 per cent complete with all the big equipment installed and stack-out conveyors in place for both coal and reject material, Ward said.
Recruitment of working personnel for the mine and CPP was also continuing.
The mine tunnel is on track to intersect the Hawera fault at about 2100m later this month and PRC should strike the coal seam at 2300m in July.
"We've drilled that area so have a good understanding of what the likely gas levels are.
"They're certainly within the range of acceptable gas levels ... we anticipate getting to the coal seam in July on track with previous estimates," he said.



http://www.stuff.co.nz/4555020a13.html

[Rabbi]

Don't be surprised if the SP stagnates for a few weeks. If anything is going to go wrong it will be s when they get to the Hawewra fault. There could be a a few nervous nellies not willing to take the risk that it will be a smooth run to the coal seam.

[Billy Boy]

Rabbi
I think the profit takers are playing their games.
SP will be up again on 2morrow and could well dip again friday.
Lets see. Else they could let it run on into next week and then
sell up big on the friday. SP back into the one fifties.
The fault may stall things a bit, but it's no big deal, they will
just go straight through the bloody thing and bond it later.
BB
Just my thoughts ......;)

[Mysterybox]

Things are starting to get exciting for Pike again...

[blockhead]

Rabbi
I think the profit takers are playing their games.
SP will be up again on 2morrow and could well dip again friday.
Lets see. Else they could let it run on into next week and then
sell up big on the friday. SP back into the one fifties.
The fault may stall things a bit, but it's no big deal, they will
just go straight through the bloody thing and bond it later.
BB
Just my thoughts ......;)

Got a sell on mine @ 1.65 will wait until they are through the fault and got that big mine head machine chewing happily before getting back in, enough exposure to PRC via nog for the time being

[Base Trader]

A very bullish sign with the news out today that ArcelorMittal has built a 15% stake in MacArthur Coal this week. MacArthur Coal produces around a third the the global seaborne traded pulverised met coal. Despite the possibility of a bidding war with Xstrata it indicates that there is an appetite for met coal and an appreciation by the world's largest streel producer that met coal prices are crutical in cost management.

The real issue in this years Asian Met Coal negotiations was that not all steel mills could get their desired volumes and as a result there is an increase in trade in America's lower quality high volatility met coal. What do you think taking 30% of the global trade in met coal under one umbrella - the world's largest steel producer will affect the actual physical supply to steel producing competitors.

An alternative source or high quality coal, diversified by source location and without port conjestion. This looks like a very good value play.

[bermuda]

A very bullish sign with the news out today that ArcelorMittal has built a 15% stake in MacArthur Coal this week. MacArthur Coal produces around a third the the global seaborne traded pulverised met coal. Despite the possibility of a bidding war with Xstrata it indicates that there is an appetite for met coal and an appreciation by the world's largest streel producer that met coal prices are crutical in cost management.

The real issue in this years Asian Met Coal negotiations was that not all steel mills could get their desired volumes and as a result there is an increase in trade in America's lower quality high volatility met coal. What do you think taking 30% of the global trade in met coal under one umbrella - the world's largest steel producer will affect the actual physical supply to steel producing competitors.

An alternative source or high quality coal, diversified by source location and without port conjestion. This looks like a very good value play.

Base trader,
You are onto it.
Coking Coal.... via an uninterupted supply chain. Beautiful

[Billy Boy]

Got a sell on mine @ 1.65 will wait until they are through the fault and got that big mine head machine chewing happily before getting back in, enough exposure to PRC via nog for the time being
1.65 might be a bit low dont ya think bloocky.
A lot of hyp as they go onto the coal front could see things
peak at about 180 so if ya hav'ent got something better to do
with the money, why sell on a rising SP ?
Cheers & Beers BB:)
PS Might have a job 4ya. Proper job that is :D

[tim23]

Why $1.80??

[The BOWMAN]

As the time to produce the coal getting closer and closer, does anyone know what is the likelihood of the coal is actually lower grade than what we believed it's going to be? like a bit more ash than we thought something like that?

[Base Trader]

That the majority of the coal was different to the coal sampled throughout the seam?

Pretty small - both statitsically and intuitively. If you sample numerous places in the seam and get a consistent grade it would be unusual that the other parts of the seam were lower quality (different chemical composition). I have seen a number of mine projects where the sample testing did not capture accurartely the size of the ore body or detect an underground river though.

[Billy Boy]

Why $1.80??
Just a guess. Coz of all the hyp in the papers,tv etc....
The seat of the pants buyers, smoko room showmen, and the
likes will have to be in. The traders will wait for that !!.
It's where it will go from there in the next year will be most
interesting.
BB

[tim23]

Nice rise on ASX up 5c

[tim23]

Even stronger since last post up 7c now

[Wilkins_Micawber]

Even stronger since last post up 7c now

Is something up at the coal face - ASX CEY up over 11% today (with no news released), ASX PRC up 6.9% (with no news released) ...
NZX PRC manages 1.9% :confused:

[tim23]

You do wonder, equates to $1.70 ish in NZ.

[AMR]

Appalling work by Yahoo finance. THe quotes for PRC.NZ have not been updated since last friday!

[the machine]

guess the spike to au$1.40 was someone wanting to fill the balance of an order

even last bid @ $1.36 is still a significant increase

onwards and upwards - just like the tunnel

M

[tim23]

they could have waited until monday to fill an order though?

[Steve]

they could have waited until monday to fill an order though?

Unless it was a Good-to-Close order...

[bermuda]

Unless it was a Good-to-Close order...

If any of you guys want a good safe feast in the next 6 months buy some Pike.

PRC

[the machine]

If any of you guys want a good safe feast in the next 6 months buy some Pike.

PRC

pike now 12.5% of my portfolio, oil 80% and others the bal

M

[bob.not.a.builder]

Hi, Just started trading 3 weeks go.
Got 20% PRC, 20% NZO, 60% AIA. NZO not looking good yet. Bought it at 1.65. I'm looking into buying some more PRC though.

[Steve]

Hi, Just started trading 3 weeks go.
Got 20% PRC, 20% NZO, 60% AIA. NZO not looking good yet. Bought it at 1.65. I'm looking into buying some more PRC though.

Why 60% AIA?!

[Grand Uber]

exactly what i was thinking

[bob.not.a.builder]

Mainly because my father said it was a good investment and AIA is unlikely to go bust anytime soon. Mind you I'm only have 10k to trade with so its not that much compared to all my term deposits.

[RossT]

Mainly because my father said it was a good investment and AIA is unlikely to go bust anytime soon. Mind you I'm only have 10k to trade with so its not that much compared to all my term deposits.


Unlikely to go bust, but sp also unlikely to go anywhere. ( AIA )

A new close up map on the PRC website showing in more detail the hawera fault and the coal seams. Now is really more than ever the time to be holding PRC I would imagine.

[Base Trader]

Is something up at the coal face - ASX CEY up over 11% today (with no news released), ASX PRC up 6.9% (with no news released) ...
NZX PRC manages 1.9% :confused:

This is stemming from the MacArthur Coal ArcelorMittal stake build as I note late last week. It's sp was bid at 11x earnings and the AM move may signal a more generally aggressive bidding war in acquiring coking coal and iron ore enterprises.

This is a trend that will not reverse in the next 2 years as coking coal will remain tight and concern over actual supply increases. The control of coking coal supply will become ever important as steel (like oil) is one of those materials that cannont be replaced and is important for a functioning and growing economy.

PRC is still a buy. As I have noted before I have them at $2 by July end and $3 for Mar/Apr 09.

[Hoop]

A very bullish sign with the news out today that ArcelorMittal has built a 15% stake in MacArthur Coal this week. MacArthur Coal produces around a third the the global seaborne traded pulverised met coal. Despite the possibility of a bidding war with Xstrata it indicates that there is an appetite for met coal and an appreciation by the world's largest streel producer that met coal prices are crutical in cost management.

The real issue in this years Asian Met Coal negotiations was that not all steel mills could get their desired volumes and as a result there is an increase in trade in America's lower quality high volatility met coal. What do you think taking 30% of the global trade in met coal under one umbrella - the world's largest steel producer will affect the actual physical supply to steel producing competitors.

An alternative source or high quality coal, diversified by source location and without port conjestion. This looks like a very good value play.

An expansion to your post Basetrader
Article from the Hindu Business Line (http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2008/05/25/stories/2008052550480600.htm) last Sunday 25th May.

Mittal sparks rush for coal resources


Buys 14.9% stake in Australia-based Macarthur Coal, eyes entire co


Approval limit
Australian foreign investment rules look a little simple. Any foreign investment can be made into a company up to 14.9% without prior approval




http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2008/05/25/images/2008052550480601.jpg
Mr L. N. Mittal
M.R. Subramani

Perth, May 24 On Tuesday, a mystery investor was reported buying nearly 10 per cent stake in Macarthur Coal, one of the top five companies in that sector in Australia. The stake was bought at $20 a share, a premium of eight per cent after trading hours. By Wednesday, it became clear that the mysterious buyer was Indian-born Mr L.N. Mittal.
Mr Mittal announced that he had picked up 14.9 per cent stake in Macarthur Coal. The average payout for him works to $19.96 a share. Providing space for Mr Mittal’s play in the company were Mr Nathan Tinkler, a racing enthusiast who sold his entire 10.4 per cent stake in the company, and Mr Ken Talbot, Macarthur’s founder who offloaded 4.27 per cent stake. Mr Talbot can still continue calling shots in the company’s affairs with a nearly 16 per cent stake.
Immediately after buying these stakes, Mr Mittal said he was interested in buying the entire company.
“Mr Mittal can buy Macarthur for around $5 billion. We would be surprised if the Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) doesn’t approve it,” said a journalist with West Australian daily. “The deal will help Mr Mittal source coal for his steel mills,” he said.

FIRB to take decision

Australian foreign investment rules look a little simple. Any foreign investment can be made into a company up to 14.9 per cent without prior approval. After that, the FIRB will have to take a call. The board’s decision will be based on whether the takeover move is in Australia’s interest.
“It has been very rare for FIRB to shoot down any proposal to buy over a company. The one that comes to mind is the rejection of the takeover of a liquefied natural gas producer by the Dutch firm Shell,” said Mr Steve Smith, Australian Foreign Minister, during a chat with a team of Indian journalists on a trip here sponsored by the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. A section of the Australian media has termed this move of Mr Mittal as a “Sino-India resource war”. But others see this as part of the steel major’s rush across-the-globe scrambling for coal supply.
For Mr Mittal, the buying is seen a strategic one since it would ensure supply for his steel mills in various parts of the globe. A speculation doing the rounds is that he could source coal for his greenfield Indian project. The move also follows his decision to buy three coking coal mines in Russia for $718 million.
Prices of coking coal, used by steel mills world over, has more than doubled to over $300 a tonne f.o.b currently, while the coal known as pulverised coal injection (PCI) has trebled to $250 a tonne delivered.
Coal prices were estimated to decline 25 per cent in short term, but supply constraints and limited port access have kept the rates stable.
Mr Mittal’s steel mills produce 60 million tonnes (mt) products and output is likely to increase to 120 mt by 2012. Arcelor Mittal is Macarthur’s biggest client in buying PCI coal. Macarthur, which has said it could end up with a profit of $75 million this fiscal (July 2007-June 2008), produces 3.6 mt of coal every year and is seen increasing it to five mt by 2012.

Diversification

Macarthur could also help Mr Mittal in diversifying his steel production into ferro alloys and molybdenum.
The stake purchase is also seen as one to nip in the bud the efforts of the big four coal companies – BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto, Xstrata and Anglo American – to take a strangle hold of supply.
If he wants to buy the company, it is possible that Mr Mittal may have to pay a little more for the extra port capacity that is available to Macarthur. But there could be a stumbling block in China’s CITIC, which holds 17.6 per cent stake in the company. The Chinese firm could retain its stake to prevent the Indian takeover but it is also seen as a non-strategic investment that may, on behalf of the Chinese Government, block the dominance of the big four coal firms. On the other hand, it has totally stopped Xstrata’s takeover bid of Macarthur.
“Finally, the buying of Macarthur by Arcelor Mittal will have to be seen whether it is in commercial interest or supply security,” said an industry expert.

[Hoop]

Check out The Telegraph Calcutta India (http://www.telegraphindia.com/1080520/jsp/business/story_9294956.jsp). It seems other companies are hunting to buy high coking coal mines as well. NZ gets a mention in this article dated the 20th May.
One would assume PRC would be in the too hard basket for any outside agency to have a go at a takeover or buy out, considering it's present shareholder structure.

[tim23]

One of the Indian shareholders could mount a takeover and remember NOG will look to exit at some stage.

[Placebo]

One of the Indian shareholders could mount a takeover and remember NOG will look to exit at some stage.

They can have mine...

FOR $10 A SHARE :D

[Rabbi]

Don't be surprised if the SP stagnates for a few weeks. If anything is going to go wrong it will be s when they get to the Hawewra fault. There could be a a few nervous nellies not willing to take the risk that it will be a smooth run to the coal seam.

Wrong again! Looks llike the fear factor has disappeared. :)

[Billy Boy]

Wrong again! Looks llike the fear factor has disappeared. :)
Friday - tomorrow could bring the profit takers. They wont want
the weekend exposure.
BB

[Robomo]

The forecasts for next year (2009-10) are starting to come in from reputable sources. Take a look at this report from Bloomberg - $300 up from $200. All sorts of problems worldwide, which only mean good things for PRC.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=amMezfg6aIXU&refer=australia

[blockhead]

Friday - tomorrow could bring the profit takers. They wont want
the weekend exposure.
BB

I think you be on the nail there BB especially as it is a 3 day weekend, my sell order activated while I was in Dunedin, will look again after the fault is breached.

[bermuda]

I think you be on the nail there BB especially as it is a 3 day weekend, my sell order activated while I was in Dunedin, will look again after the fault is breached.

This is a geologically low risk structure.

If anyone wants to maximise their leverage, invest now BEFORE they get to the fault.

The rise of PRC has only just started.

[Billy Boy]

I think you be on the nail there BB especially as it is a 3 day weekend, my sell order activated while I was in Dunedin, will look again after the fault is breached.
Yee Gods Blocky. My last three wives never used to listen either !!!
My post to Rabi was only to warn him not to expect much today
friday coz traders will be selling down.
Now you get back in first thing next week (big time) coz they will porbably
go through the fault then. And then watch the price go.

to all...
This bloody fault is sweet bugger all. just a crack in the ground !!!!
It's not like the major fault that forms the Southern Alps and runs on up
through the middle of NZ, it's a side crack or "shift". The tunnelers will
spend a bit of time on it sure, probably "sleeve it" or put in more re- enforcements but it wont stop them, they will hardly feel the bump.

Any body done an estamite on a probable divvy return with the price
of c/coal where it is ???
Cheers BB
Dis hold heaps, got em cheap, and hanging on, you bet ya !!:p

[Bilo]

I think you be on the nail there BB especially as it is a 3 day weekend, my sell order activated while I was in Dunedin, will look again after the fault is breached.

Blocky, shame on a long term poster like you for hoping the price will be lower next week! The tunnel diagram on Tuesday can be expected to show PRC wasting no time punching the tunnel through towards the fault - excitement reaching fever pitch and BB being advised not to be in! This Pike River coal investment is a long term thing for investors (and not for speculators), as time marches on the DCF unravels and in this case with ever improving fundamentals.:D

[Wilkins_Micawber]

From Pike website ... new McDouall Stuart Analyst report 21st May ... quotes from report ...

Further Target Price Upgrade on Coal Price Outlook
We have upgraded our PRC target price, principally on the strength of recently announced
metcoal price benchmarks to apply for the Japanese fiscal year (JFY) commencing 1 April 2008.
DCF generates $1.95/share, with upgraded 12 month target price of $2.15/share. Buy.

[bull....]

Its had a good run , looks like a time for me to be taking profits now, buyers momentum fading, negative divergences , looks exhausted short term.

[bermuda]

Its had a good run , looks like a time for me to be taking profits now, buyers momentum fading, negative divergences , looks exhausted short term.

Oh dear ,.... Do not push the sell button....this is going to outperform

[Sideshow Bob]

Oh dear ,.... Do not push the sell button....this is going to outperform

Bermuda is obviously topped up and fully loaded!!

:-P

[bermuda]

Bermuda is obviously topped up and fully loaded!!

:-P

Hardly got any really. This is a Standout stock. Have often thought about putting the whole portfolio on PRC but every time I come to do it I cant stand selling my other babies.

Look

If you have any cash...get into it......push the BUY button.

Gosh, I nearly was going to offer to underwrite it but that could have got me into serious trouble!lol

Hey Do Your own reasearch. This is just my opinion and man, you wouldnt want to look at how much I lost in 87-91.( Never even told my wife how much I lost...things were pretty bad then...ouch! )

Thank goodness I went out on my own and said goodbye to those Brokers who are so aptly named .Brokers......yes they can make you go broke alright.

Anyway, the point of the message is only use Broker's for order execution. Never ever use them for advice. It is not their fault. They just havent got time to get it right every time.

[Sideshow Bob]

I've actually been forced to sell out of all my other holdings (circumstances outside my control) by didn't relinquish any PRC or NZO - but I took the opportunity of a bit of extra liquidity to top on some more NZOOD's, which I'll exercise. Like one other poster said, I don't think I've got enough PRC, but now have more exposure with NZO.

I've DMOR and while not an expert on resouces or mining, I obviously like what I see. I did happen to meet one of the directors recently, and he did mention that 'there were still some major risks before coal production', however probably just playing a straight bat - as there is some risk with everything.

Don't think there is anything to add that hasn't been said. Will be an exciting couple of months for both stocks, and can sit back and enjoy.

Let's bring it on!!

[bermuda]

I've actually been forced to sell out of all my other holdings (circumstances outside my control) by didn't relinquish any PRC or NZO - but I took the opportunity of a bit of extra liquidity to top on some more NZOOD's, which I'll exercise. Like one other poster said, I don't think I've got enough PRC, but now have more exposure with NZO.

I've DMOR and while not an expert on resouces or mining, I obviously like what I see. I did happen to meet one of the directors recently, and he did mention that 'there were still some major risks before coal production', however probably just playing a straight bat - as there is some risk with everything.

Don't think there is anything to add that hasn't been said. Will be an exciting couple of months for both stocks, and can sit back and enjoy.

Let's bring it on!!

You made a very wise decision. You are obviously very talented. These two are going to surprise a lot of tall poppy loppers. ( ok, I went through a lot of angst to get here )

[Billy Boy]

From the annc.
Pike River has pre-fabricated steel sets to be erected if required to support the tunnel roof through the forecast 50 metre crushed zone after the fault.
A slower rate of advance is forecast by Pike River through this area, which
is expected to be traversed during June. The tunnel is expected to intersect the coal seam in July 2008

First coal 6 to 8 weeks away maybe sooner.
Not major problems forcast with this fault Just some gas detection.
And every coal mine deals with gas every day. No big deal...
Go PIKE :D:D

[zac]

The process of drilling through the fault and crushed zone is very simply described but fraught with uncertainty. I will bet there is a fair amount of adrenaline flowing down there. More methane gas is now apparent and rock conditions are unpredictable. If slow progress results in a perfect outcome so be it.

[sideline]

McDuall Stuart expect PRC to enter the NZX50 at around place 44 on 1 July as per their latest
research note.

[Billy Boy]

The process of drilling through the fault and crushed zone is very simply described but fraught with uncertainty. I will bet there is a fair amount of adrenaline flowing down there. More methane gas is now apparent and rock conditions are unpredictable. If slow progress results in a perfect outcome so be it.

Progress will most definately be slower.
They may have to grout a lot of ground.

But I would suggest that if Pike say "July" then they know more
than they are letting on. And why not, they have opted for
very little wriggle room (time wise).
BB

[Placebo]

McDuall Stuart expect PRC to enter the NZX50 at around place 44 on 1 July as per their latest
research note.

Usually this is accompanied by a short-term boost to the SP as institutions align with the index.

[bull....]

negative momentum confirmed , selling volume will start to pick up now.

[Rabbi]

You have to expect a bit of profit taking after such a strong run. Once they are through the fault and heading for the coal the price will take off again. Blue skies ahead I believe. :)

[COLIN]

Friday - tomorrow could bring the profit takers. They wont want
the weekend exposure.
BB

You're so right.
This faultline certainly looks pretty dodgy, with the company taking extreme precautions, but I have no doubt that they will be able to cope with whatever happens.
A good time to buy some more, from the nervous Nellies.

[Billy Boy]

You're so right.
This faultline certainly looks pretty dodgy, with the company taking extreme precautions, but I have no doubt that they will be able to cope with whatever happens.
A good time to buy some more, from the nervous Nellies.
Colin
I dont think this fault line is dodgy.
No water... to high up
Gas... a bit yep but no pressure, that would have gone out the top
long ago. Just means no naked flames. Welders etc. turn up the vents.
Broken rock.... if it's gravel, then bugger !!! harder to deal with. But Most
probably large broken stuff. then into the softer rock on the other side.
That could be gravel... but because its soft its probably been compacted
by pressure and therefore easyer to work with.
Tunnel'ers know what they are dealing with coz they have got the steel
and mesh on site cut, bent & ready to go.
It would not surprise me to learn that they were well into the fault when
they released the announcement...... Think about it !!!
BB

[the machine]

McDuall Stuart expect PRC to enter the NZX50 at around place 44 on 1 July as per their latest
research note.


pike into the top 50 and straight into about number 44 - that is big!

bigger is when they crack $2 and into 30's - xmas 2008

bigger still is into the top 20 - $3 - xmas 2009

M

[bermuda]

pike into the top 50 and straight into about number 44 - that is big!

bigger is when they crack $2 and into 30's - xmas 2008

bigger still is into the top 20 - $3 - xmas 2009

M

Could be bigger than that. The aussie coal miner analysts have got too much on their mind to really notice a prospective producer that has not even hit the coal yet.

This is way under the radar . Do the math. Aint hard either. IPO selling price trebles.

This is an international project selling into an international market and at international rising prices.

What more could you possibly dream of?

That's why I said I nearly put the whole lot on. This is good.

[Sideshow Bob]

PRC down 5c in OZ at present.

Is this a reaction to weakness in NZ on Friday, or is it just nervousness over interceting with the Hawera fault?

[bermuda]

PRC down 5c in OZ at present.

Is this a reaction to weakness in NZ on Friday, or is it just nervousness over interceting with the Hawera fault?

Bit of everything. I tell you even a few of the aussies have their doubts.The kiwis sure do.

What a standout...and I have hardly got any. I think I said somewhere that PRC would be 30 cents ahead of NZO by 30 June. After that there is a big sprint race as both NZO and PRC race to (NZ) stardom.

[tim23]

Pretty weak volume just over 53,000 shares traded though.

[Sehnsucht888]

A bit more volume today on the NZX.

362,789 $616,649

Only some of it since this... Although I guess this isn't a big surprise..


GENERAL: PRC: Pike River Settles Coal Sales Price At US$300 PerTonne 03:16p.m.
PRC
03/06/2008
GENERAL

REL: 1516 HRS Pike River Coal Limited

GENERAL: PRC: Pike River Settles Coal Sales Price At US$300 PerTonne

PIKE RIVER SETTLES COAL SALES PRICE AT US$300 PER TONNE

Pike River Coal Limited (Pike River) announces it has settled the sales price
for its premium hard coking coal with two Japanese steel mills and its Indian
shareholders (Gujarat NRE Coke Limited and Saurashtra Fuels Private Limited)
at US$300 per tonne for deliveries in the current Japanese Fiscal Year ended
31 March 2009.

Pike River Chief Executive Gordon Ward says "We are pleased to sell our first
coal at record prices which are in line with price settlements announced by
Australia's major hard coking coal producers for their premium quality hard
coking coal."

"The development of Pike River represents a timely diversified source of
supply of ultra low ash metallurgical coal into the world market."

First shipments of Pike River premium hard coking coal to Japan and India are
expected in the first quarter of 2009.

[bermuda]

A bit more volume today on the NZX.

362,789 $616,649

Only some of it since this... Although I guess this isn't a big surprise..


GENERAL: PRC: Pike River Settles Coal Sales Price At US$300 PerTonne 03:16p.m.
PRC
03/06/2008
GENERAL

REL: 1516 HRS Pike River Coal Limited

GENERAL: PRC: Pike River Settles Coal Sales Price At US$300 PerTonne

PIKE RIVER SETTLES COAL SALES PRICE AT US$300 PER TONNE

Pike River Coal Limited (Pike River) announces it has settled the sales price
for its premium hard coking coal with two Japanese steel mills and its Indian
shareholders (Gujarat NRE Coke Limited and Saurashtra Fuels Private Limited)
at US$300 per tonne for deliveries in the current Japanese Fiscal Year ended
31 March 2009.

Pike River Chief Executive Gordon Ward says "We are pleased to sell our first
coal at record prices which are in line with price settlements announced by
Australia's major hard coking coal producers for their premium quality hard
coking coal."

"The development of Pike River represents a timely diversified source of
supply of ultra low ash metallurgical coal into the world market."

First shipments of Pike River premium hard coking coal to Japan and India are
expected in the first quarter of 2009.

Great news.
And next years' price could be higher. This is a standout
DYOR

[Rabbi]

It sure put a Rocket under the Share Price. I didn't expect them to settle the contract price so soon. The Indians and the Japs must be keen to get this premium coking coal and are prepared to pay top dollar.

Onwards and upwards, through the fault and into the coal seam we go! :D

[Dr_Who]

PRC better not hit any problems getting the coal out of the ground if they are to meet the requirements of the contract. I wonder if there are any penalty clause that PRC have to pay if they cant meet the delivery of the coal.

It is great to get $300, since the analyst all did their numbers below 300.

[AMR]

Probably not as they have already delayed first coal from January.

Bermuda, you say next year's coal will be even more expensive? why?

[bermuda]

Probably not as they have already delayed first coal from January.

Bermuda, you say next year's coal will be even more expensive? why?

Because there is not enough coking coal around to make the steel that is in huge demand.

When Matt Simmons starts buying steel stocks then that is a sure indication that thiings in this industry are tight.

Just like oil and Natural gas. Tight as.

[MPC]

I'm back in. Always liked the potential of this stock. Lets go..

[Base Trader]

The fixing of this years price is a bit disappointing. I would have prefered to have seen PRC sell into thwe spot market in 2008 as they could havce realised upward of $400/MT.

You will have nopted I have been a bull on this stock from $1 earlier this year and I remain so. This market is in deficit and I believe their is a hidden deficit also from the 670m mt of met coal not traded in the open market. These captive mines are longstanding, low cost but are generally running with very poor infrastructure - and these mines are creaking. With any infrastructure that has been neglected for 20-30 years do you honestly believe it can be corrected in 3 months of higher prices. Even in 2-3 years this will not be corrected.

I noted this broker note from last week:

"A methane explosion at the major Ukrainian coking coal mine Krasnolimanskaya looks set to exacerbate the coking coal shortage. The explosion, which killed at least ten workers, caused production at the mine to be suspended indefinitely. Krasnolimanskaya produces around 6mtpa of coal (mainly coking), almost one-third of Ukrainian production."

This will execedbate the traded coal deficit as the Ukrainian steel producers will need to replace this coking coal from the open traded market. The Ukraine went from net exporter to importer last year and then with 1/3rd of production under threat now?

This will increase the deficit in traded Coking coal from estimated 11m mt to 17m mt in a market of 220m mt. You do the math.

[digger]

Good one Base trader,mostly i agree with you. PRC probably is not as free as you might think.By that monies bowerred and other committments most lilely mean that PRC has some interest to tie down at 300 rather than go for the total kill. You might see more of what you outlined in the future when PRC is completely paid off and oweing nothing to anyone.

[tim23]

Strong close on ASX @ $1.45 up 11c on the day but yesterdays fall was a bit misleading on tiny volume.

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Hi Fish et al...

Open, High, Low ...

[biker]

GENERAL: PRC: Pike River Settles Coal Sales Price At US$300 PerTonne 03:16p.m.
PRC
03/06/2008
GENERAL

REL: 1516 HRS Pike River Coal Limited

GENERAL: PRC: Pike River Settles Coal Sales Price At US$300 PerTonne

PIKE RIVER SETTLES COAL SALES PRICE AT US$300 PER TONNE


...........at US$300 per tonne for deliveries in the current Japanese Fiscal Year ended
31 March 2009.

.......First shipments of Pike River premium hard coking coal to Japan and India are
expected in the first quarter of 2009





It would seem if the first shipment is "expected" in the first quarter of 09 and the deal is for deliveries up to the end of March 09 , with the inevitable delays there will be very little coal actually sold under this deal.

And while I'm here, I hope all goes well between now and first coal delivery, because when I hear a CMC markets rep. talking up Pike River Coal and watch the Share price run up and up and hear dubious 'sales' news, I hope nobody cuts the elevator cable.

[bermuda]

PRC is going to surprise a few of the doubters. This is just such an outstanding stock.

Steel and coking coal prices go higher.

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Noted PRC is at all time high
Up 59% from 1 April 2008.

[tim23]

And even higher - up 5c on the ASX today, who said to wait until the 1st coal was struck before you consider buying, that was poor advice in hindsight, gee can I remember who it was!?

[manxman]

At this rate it may start to drag NZO out of the option conversion doldrums.
PRC sellers have all been taken out.
NZO may be seen as the only way to get a piece of the action.

Looks as though PRC will beat its prospectus forcast for the 2010 year by $200 million or so, which has to impress the punters.

Mx

[Placebo]

Pity I didn't pick this in the NZX investor comp.

Oh well at least I bought some with real money :D

[Wilkins_Micawber]

Website has been updated - click on "Tunnel Progress" then click on the diagram. This then shows a different image, which shows the tunnel has reached the fault :)

[Billy Boy]

wonder if we could get a picture of what tunnel face
looks like as the road header chews through the fault.
BB

[Rabbi]

And even higher - up 5c on the ASX today, who said to wait until the 1st coal was struck before you consider buying, that was poor advice in hindsight, gee can I remember who it was!?

Not me, but I do think the SP is surprising considering the Mine hasn't been entirely de-risked. Usually,if it's too good to be true it isn't, but in this case it might just be too good not to be true. Still could be some nasty surprises, but apparently the market has discounted the risk and all it sees is $$$$$.:rolleyes:

[foodee]

My take from the sale announcement is that a lot of the
potential risks are gone.

[Base Trader]

Not me, but I do think the SP is surprising considering the Mine hasn't been entirely de-risked. Usually,if it's too good to be true it isn't, but in this case it might just be too good not to be true. Still could be some nasty surprises, but apparently the market has discounted the risk and all it sees is $$$$$.:rolleyes:

I find this a rather odd statement. I agree that the project has been less that de-risked. Hopwever, on very simple numbers at US$300/mt and a NZD/USD rate of 0.80 (and the NZD looks precariously placed to fall) that corresponds to a NPBT of NZ$250m - NZ$300m in first full year on 1m MT pa. That is well under 2x for a PE.

Of course you have to ask yourself if the price will remain at US$300 or close - and I am a fermant believer that this will be the case for reasons I have stated here before.

Then the question is can PRC deliver 1m MT pa? The risks to not hitting target and undershooting may see PE at 3x-4x vs achieving target at better than 2x. If you compare to Aussie miners - this is an excellent metric and would indicate a higher value.

So the project maybe not be de-risked. But the valuation still lags. There is a higher probability in the project hitting or getting close to target and achieving a $4 price than the the project undershooting, the NZD gaining and the coal price coming off in the next 2 years and the price reverting back to $1.

Any investor here is underwriting some risk here. But this is firmly weighted in the investors favour due to 3 key reasons:
1. much of the NZ investor community has not recognised the chonic shortage of the Met Coal market - a longer term problem.
2. the Aussie investors are "looking the other way" with FLX and MacArthur coal and Rio, BHP and Mittal on the prowl. Aussie Coal stocks have been on the rise.
3. the increased investor activity just to get Met Coal access. As Companies are acquired the cash from these will hit other resource stocks - including PRC.

Finally, I believe the NZD has a 20% fall on the way. The Fed has expressed a need to underpin the USD and currency flows are likely to flip due to lower borrowing requirements in NZ. Once the rates start their past down we will see carry trade unwinds. The Funds are out but not the Japanese house wife and institutional investors. This will be a long run unwind with continued weakness.

[bermuda]

I find this a rather odd statement. I agree that the project has been less that de-risked. Hopwever, on very simple numbers at US$300/mt and a NZD/USD rate of 0.80 (and the NZD looks precariously placed to fall) that corresponds to a NPBT of NZ$250m - NZ$300m in first full year on 1m MT pa. That is well under 2x for a PE.

Of course you have to ask yourself if the price will remain at US$300 or close - and I am a fermant believer that this will be the case for reasons I have stated here before.

Then the question is can PRC deliver 1m MT pa? The risks to not hitting target and undershooting may see PE at 3x-4x vs achieving target at better than 2x. If you compare to Aussie miners - this is an excellent metric and would indicate a higher value.

So the project maybe not be de-risked. But the valuation still lags. There is a higher probability in the project hitting or getting close to target and achieving a $4 price than the the project undershooting, the NZD gaining and the coal price coming off in the next 2 years and the price reverting back to $1.

ny investor here is underwriting some risk here. But this is firmly weighted in the investors favour due to 3 key reasons:
1. much of the NZ investor community has not recognised the chonic shortage of the Met Coal market - a longer term problem.
2. the Aussie investors are "looking the other way" with FLX and MacArthur coal and Rio, BHP and Mittal on the prowl. Aussie Coal stocks have been on the rise.
3. the increased investor activity just to get Met Coal access. As Companies are acquired the cash from these will hit other resource stocks - including PRC.

Finally, I believe the NZD has a 20% fall on the way. The Fed has expressed a need to underpin the USD and currency flows are likely to flip due to lower borrowing requirements in NZ. Once the rates start their past down we will see carry trade unwinds. The Funds are out but not the Japanese house wife and institutional investors. This will be a long run unwind with continued weakness.

Absolutely agree. Great post. I am sure you meant to say 'As companies are acquired the cash from these will LIFT ( not HIT ) other resource stocks-including PRC'

NZ loves to knock anything with any chance of success.Too much pc I suppose...
Aussie doesnt rate a coal project until they touch the coal. Hence only passing recognition.

This is a potential 2 bagger...and fairly quickly too. Like ...One year...or earlier

A 2 bagger to me is the price doubling. Some people may say that is a 1 bagger. But I aint going to call PRC a " 1 Bagger "

Comon guys, This is staring you in the FACE.Get on board. I have told you before I nearly put the whole lot on this baby.

And as you now, (for newcomers ) that is not a ramp. Just a matter of fact.

I mean...an IPO in the worst possible circumstances and all those knockers ( thank goodness they have gone away ) kicking it to hell. Look, when I met Peter Whittall I knew there was a gestation period about to deliver one of the most beautiful babies you have ever seen

DYOR and DO YOURSELF A FAVOUR

Come on. Get on the google. Look up the coal market, look up the steel market, look up the coking coal pricing market, look up the supply/demand for coking coal..... and then do a bit more...and then sit back and make your conclusion. Dont rely on me. And If you can come up with a better one ( in all regards ) then please tell me.

My wife ( dont worry , she is seriously bright and loving ) tells me I shouldnt do this ( i.e. put myself up for anther fall. ( I have had a few falls ) ...

but why not SHARE.

All this passion I am carrying around is due to you guys.I have so much to thankyou for. Thankyou. Best time of my life. Everyday should be cherished.

I ask all you guys to please read that last sentence again. Because that is what's important.

[tim23]

Rabbi - it wasn't you who bagged the stock, guess who!? Gee- perhaps I should run a competition on who it was.

[Excelsior]

Had a 10% trailing stop loss on these babies. Got chucked out at 1.52 a couple of weeks ago that Friday when the price suddenly dipped 9% over 2 days. Didn't stick to the original stop loss. Fortunately only sold half.
I promise I will always listen to Digger and Bermuda from now on. I am backing the truck up tomorrow morning, These babies have serious wings.

[Rif-Raf]

I find this a rather odd statement. I agree that the project has been less that de-risked. Hopwever, on very simple numbers at US$300/mt and a NZD/USD rate of 0.80 (and the NZD looks precariously placed to fall) that corresponds to a NPBT of NZ$250m - NZ$300m in first full year on 1m MT pa. That is well under 2x for a PE.

Of course you have to ask yourself if the price will remain at US$300 or close - and I am a fermant believer that this will be the case for reasons I have stated here before.

Then the question is can PRC deliver 1m MT pa? The risks to not hitting target and undershooting may see PE at 3x-4x vs achieving target at better than 2x. If you compare to Aussie miners - this is an excellent metric and would indicate a higher value.

So the project maybe not be de-risked. But the valuation still lags. There is a higher probability in the project hitting or getting close to target and achieving a $4 price than the the project undershooting, the NZD gaining and the coal price coming off in the next 2 years and the price reverting back to $1.

Any investor here is underwriting some risk here. But this is firmly weighted in the investors favour due to 3 key reasons:
1. much of the NZ investor community has not recognised the chonic shortage of the Met Coal market - a longer term problem.
2. the Aussie investors are "looking the other way" with FLX and MacArthur coal and Rio, BHP and Mittal on the prowl. Aussie Coal stocks have been on the rise.
3. the increased investor activity just to get Met Coal access. As Companies are acquired the cash from these will hit other resource stocks - including PRC.

Finally, I believe the NZD has a 20% fall on the way. The Fed has expressed a need to underpin the USD and currency flows are likely to flip due to lower borrowing requirements in NZ. Once the rates start their past down we will see carry trade unwinds. The Funds are out but not the Japanese house wife and institutional investors. This will be a long run unwind with continued weakness.

Correct me if I'm wrong there will only be around 200,000 coal sold in the year to F09 at the US$300 price for say NPBT of say $40m.
The ramp up to 1m tonnes pa is F10 for which we do not know the price yet - this to me is the reason the price hasn't reached its potential.
Forget about the final risks underground, it's all eyes to F10 prices + exchange rate that is going to see this one fly big or really big.

[Sideshow Bob]

Basetrader, thanks for your posts, which I always find insightful, considered and intelligent.

The GPG's threads loss is Pike gain!!

SSB

[Sideshow Bob]

Even looking at MsDoull Stuarts latest update, their forecast eps is 56.3c for the June 2010 year. On todays share price, this is a 3.3 PE on todays price - and they have a price 'forecast' on it of $2.15!!

Sure there are still risks, and will be great when they haul out the first coal, but haven't come this far to fail.

[Robomo]

Hi RR

Since my post a few days ago there have been problems in Russia, so price looks good for the next 3 years at least for PRC.


The forecasts for next year (2009-10) are starting to come in from reputable sources. Take a look at this report from Bloomberg - $300 up from $200. All sorts of problems worldwide, which only mean good things for PRC.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=amMezfg6aIXU&refer=australia

[bermuda]

Hi RR

Since my post a few days ago there have been problems in Russia, so price looks good for the next 3 years at least for PRC.

The price of coking coal goes up. Just have a little google.Far out.

[zorba]

I find this a rather odd statement. I agree that the project has been less that de-risked. Hopwever, on very simple numbers at US$300/mt and a NZD/USD rate of 0.80 (and the NZD looks precariously placed to fall) that corresponds to a NPBT of NZ$250m - NZ$300m in first full year on 1m MT pa. That is well under 2x for a PE.

Of course you have to ask yourself if the price will remain at US$300 or close - and I am a fermant believer that this will be the case for reasons I have stated here before.

Then the question is can PRC deliver 1m MT pa? The risks to not hitting target and undershooting may see PE at 3x-4x vs achieving target at better than 2x. If you compare to Aussie miners - this is an excellent metric and would indicate a higher value.

So the project maybe not be de-risked. But the valuation still lags. There is a higher probability in the project hitting or getting close to target and achieving a $4 price than the the project undershooting, the NZD gaining and the coal price coming off in the next 2 years and the price reverting back to $1.

Any investor here is underwriting some risk here. But this is firmly weighted in the investors favour due to 3 key reasons:
1. much of the NZ investor community has not recognised the chonic shortage of the Met Coal market - a longer term problem.
2. the Aussie investors are "looking the other way" with FLX and MacArthur coal and Rio, BHP and Mittal on the prowl. Aussie Coal stocks have been on the rise.
3. the increased investor activity just to get Met Coal access. As Companies are acquired the cash from these will hit other resource stocks - including PRC.

Finally, I believe the NZD has a 20% fall on the way. The Fed has expressed a need to underpin the USD and currency flows are likely to flip due to lower borrowing requirements in NZ. Once the rates start their past down we will see carry trade unwinds. The Funds are out but not the Japanese house wife and institutional investors. This will be a long run unwind with continued weakness.

************************************************** ************

BaseTrader:

Thanks for intersting and useful commentary above.

To back up BaseTrader and Bermuda, every Pike invetor should ABSOLUTELY and IMPERATIVELY read:

http://www.pike.co.nz/reports/analyst-reports/McD%20Stuart%208-May-08%20Coal%20SectorB.pdf/view

This is a detailed appraisal by McDoual Stuart of the global seaborn trade in metallurgical (coking) coal.

It provides a solid base of data for looking at the present coking coal supply/demand situation and the future of this critical ingrediant in the steel making process.

Remember China only has 40 cars per 1000 population while the US/Europe/NZ/Aus has over 700 cars per 1000 ppl. And the Chinese are growing at 10% and India at 9%. Its all pretty crazy (and thats a risk) but untill it all explodes/implodes the world is going gangbusters for more and more coking coal.

Read the Stu McDu report and check out the graphs for Aussie coal miners at the end.

Pike is still way under its real value if the Aussie coal miners are anything to go by ........

Z

.

[digger]

For all everyones talk now about things looking rosey ,i want the credit for saying to PIKE some months before the cash issue that things would be much better if money raising could wait until sept this year.In fact it was my comments here that got reported in the paper where NZO said one of there larger holders wanted the cash issue delayed.And on a second point i was also the first to say that once the price of HCC got to 300 it would not fall much from there.Things just get factored in so i believe 250 will be the floor for the forseeable future. That i base on South Africa electrical problems are not getting solved and are in fact still reducing and the problems with the Aus flooding will be worse than first thought .It would not supprise me that the flooded mines in Aus turn out to now have structual problems as water can effect things when water is indroduced to where before water never was.I see ongoing problems as yet not realised.And more ongoing money to solve them,so HCC prices are not going to fall.

[bermuda]

For all everyones talk now about things looking rosey ,i want the credit for saying to PIKE some months before the cash issue that things would be much better if money raising could wait until sept this year.In fact it was my comments here that got reported in the paper where NZO said one of there larger holders wanted the cash issue delayed.And on a second point i was also the first to say that once the price of HCC got to 300 it would not fall much from there.Things just get factored in so i believe 250 will be the floor for the forseeable future. That i base on South Africa electrical problems are not getting solved and are in fact still reducing and the problems with the Aus flooding will be worse than first thought .It would not supprise me that the flooded mines in Aus turn out to now have structual problems as water can effect things when water is indroduced to where before water never was.I see ongoing problems as yet not realised.And more ongoing money to solve them,so HCC prices are not going to fall.

The price of HCC will remain over $US300/mton .

I think today will see the 30 cent gap between NZO and PRC that I spoke of sometime ago.

As you know , both are set to fly.

[bermuda]

The price of HCC will remain over $US300/mton .

I think today will see the 30 cent gap between NZO and PRC that I spoke of sometime ago.

As you know , both are set to fly.

Yep, gap now 33 cents.
Pike up to 189, NZO down to 156.

That's 3 cents below your pick Macca.

[Rabbi]

Base Trader, a very comprehensive analysis. I'm glad to be proved wrong,however the rising share price suggests to me that all the good news may be getting factored into the SP before it happens.
Having discussed the project with experienced WesT Coast Miners -top management in Solid Energy- the common consensus is that -and I quote-
" There is no way in the world they can do one millon tons a year, they won't get anywhere near that. "
They are telling me the projected volumes of coal are "pie in the sky" so I am pleased that you can confirm that they can undershoot and still be on a low P.E.

[KiwiBear]

Buy on the rumour sell on the fact eh!

[sideline]

.....
Having discussed the project with experienced WesT Coast Miners -top management in Solid Energy- the common consensus is that -and I quote-
" There is no way in the world they can do one millon tons a year, they won't get anywhere near that. "
They are telling me the projected volumes of coal are "pie in the sky" so I am pleased that you can confirm that they can undershoot and still be on a low P.E.

I am glad these guys work for Solid Energy and not for PRC!!! Aren't those the guys who thought
the whole project could never be pulled off?

[morv]

Arent these solid energy blokes the same blokes that have given pike access to their supply chain to chch to ship the 1mill. tons per annum,[surely they havnt granted access to the supply chain based on the fact that if we cant do it no one else will be able to.]If pike is successful how much of solids coal will stay on the coast because they have leased out their transport system:: Then again arent they the marketing guru blokes who are selling hcc at about 100 per ton or less at the moment

[Base Trader]

Base Trader, a very comprehensive analysis. I'm glad to be proved wrong,however the rising share price suggests to me that all the good news may be getting factored into the SP before it happens.
Having discussed the project with experienced WesT Coast Miners -top management in Solid Energy- the common consensus is that -and I quote-
" There is no way in the world they can do one millon tons a year, they won't get anywhere near that. "
They are telling me the projected volumes of coal are "pie in the sky" so I am pleased that you can confirm that they can undershoot and still be on a low P.E.

Hi Rabbi. We should make one thing perfectly clear - I am not a geo and have no where made any assumption about vaibility of the project. However, what i can tell you is that I still do not believe the market has fully absorbed the change in met coal price deck. Sure the price of met coal has doubled but there is a lot of residual belief that this is and will be a short term issue. I am a firm believer that we will have US$250+ prices for the next 5 years. This realisation will change the projected future cashflows and add to the value of PRC.

As for undershooting estimates on the mine production. That maybe - but with the cash on the table at $300 there will be the financial capacity (with debt and not convertibles) to do what is possible to maximise production. This may not be enough but if prices go to $350 of currency to 70 cents that is the same as 850mt pa.

If production will not hit 1mt for fy10 then that is a storey that will play itself out in mid 2009. Until then the price impetus from investors and fundamental met coal demand will drive this sp. This is not sharetrader forum investors either (lets not talk ourselves up too much) but Aussie Brokered investors.

I have and remain a bull on met coal prices and I have this play on for that reason alone (also Felix and MacArthur too).

[Sideshow Bob]

I recently spoke to a mining consultant, who did some work for Solid Energy. I made a casual comment about how they must be doing alright at present given coal prices, and he replied that it cost them twice as much to get out of the ground than what it should do.

As a small aside, I also spoke to the purchasing manager at work, and he last year signed up a 5 or 6 year contract at 2007 levels, with mechanisms for increases in transport and labour. Hmmm, would be a good saving!!

[fish]

MY intentions are i wouldnt touch it with your barge pole.
Getting the stuff out is to complicated that is the one big reason for me to avoid this share. Macdunk


its always interesting to look back at the quality of the posting and how accurate predictions are

[fish]

Johndeyell,
Of course I will be taking up my full entitlement.
Bearing in mind the bad publicity this project has generated, I would be a fool not to.Expect a good premium on listing.Believe me Peter Whittall will deliver the goods.

And there is good reason to believe the coal reserves will be a lot higher.

A very good long term cashflow as long as the world needs steel.As you say the coking coal is of premium quality and is keenly sought from as far away as South Africa.It has special qualities that not only enhance the furnace heat but contribute to improving the bottom line.

In contrast to macdunk I have researched past and present posts from bermuda and find them outstanding in research insight and predictive value .

Thanks bermuda for putting me onto this share.
I must admit I have recently sold a few to buy nzo because i feel nzo is as undervalued now as prc was a few months again-but by doing so at least nzo have a 30% interest in prc

[dsurf]

When it floated there were doubts - costs will quadruple, labour shortages, double shipping, recession worldwide YAH de YA

everyone poo pooed 100m ebitda

now we are talking 300m EBITDA won't happen

hmmm I think it will be 400m EBITDA

[bermuda]

In contrast to macdunk I have researched past and present posts from bermuda and find them outstanding in research insight and predictive value .

Thanks bermuda for putting me onto this share.
I must admit I have recently sold a few to buy nzo because i feel nzo is as undervalued now as prc was a few months again-but by doing so at least nzo have a 30% interest in prc

Hi Fish,Thanks for those words,
I got it wrong on the listing premium but I got it right on the increasing spread betwen NZO and PRC...now at 38 cents....until the end of June that is. Then watch both these heavyweights fly.

Coking coal will stay above $US300 for a very long time.

When Matt Simmons starts buying steel stocks you know there is a problem. Huge demand.

I nearly put my whole portfolio on this one. But my CSG babies are outperforming and LNG will go higher. Why anyone would want to hold the Telecoms of the world is beyond me.

Sell all your rubbish and buy NZO PRC BOW VPE VPEO and RPM NOW!!!!!

This CHINA thing is completely underestimated

[COLIN]

Bermuda: We seem to have a similar dilemma. I have done well (to date) with my CSG investments (thanks largely to the information and vision shared by your good self) but I don't want to let the NZO/PRC thing get away on me. I still hold relatively sizeable chunks of them both, including NZO options which I would like to exercise but this will involve realising some of my other investments - a situation which I would venture to suggest is faced by many other holders. But I scrutinise my portfolio closely and there are very few shares I want to part with at this stage (thats because I am so astute in my investing decisions of course, of course, of course.........!!)
However, I don't have to make that decision for another week or so, and I am sure there will be other considerations by then.
I have to agree with you, its quite an exciting time for us old codgers! So far we seem to be able to stand the pace!

[ritchie]

any ideasm on the halt

[AMR]

Speeding ticket maybe?

[Rabbi]

Takeover already?!