SUM - Summerset Group

[ratkin]

Good to see this peoples expectations coming down to a more realistic level. Has been ridiculously over optimistic on here this past six months.

[Goldstein]

You can see where any vacancies are here:
http://www.trademe.co.nz/Browse/CategoryAttributeSearchResults.aspx?search=1&cid=9017&rptpath=350-&sidebar=0&132=&selected135=&selected136=&134=&135=&29=&122=0&122=0&49=0&49=0&153=Summerset&searchString=Summerset&generalSearch_keypresses=30&generalSearch_suggested=0

Looks like only 3 of the 19 villages have anything 'Available Now'.

Anyway, I'm sure some of those going to the AGM can ask a few questions

[Beagle]

Roger, you need to put the PE in context of earnings growth to get the full picture. e.g. while SUM might be trading at a PE of 33, its underlying growth grew at 46% over the last FY year. Hence its PEG ratio is 33/46 = 0.72. This suggests excellent value. Few growth stocks have a PEG ratio less than one.

Also, by comparison, the PEG for Ryman is nearly 2, which is precisely why SUM is a much better investment (even at $3.58) than RYM (IMHO etc blah blah blah)

:)

Yeap, well on to that my friend but to be honest I am very disappointed with Q1 sales and expected a LOT more as articulated recently. I agree that using historical growth rates the PEG is very cheap and also note that despite a flat Q1 2013 sales result compared to the pcp in 2012 they still managed profit growth of 46% last year.
I agree that these are substaintially better value than Ryman's and won't own any Ryman for that reason notwithstanding my desire to have a well diversified portfolio. I won't pay over the odds for any stock.
Plenty to discuss with management at the AGM if they have the time.

[couta1]

Deep breath guys,so Q1 sales not what expected ,my post #1770 applies here I believe, remember what Norah said to the media last year need I remind you ,This is a Long Term Investment,a marathon not a sprint. Winner I never said things were booming but all the ducks are lined up with processes brought in house, some fantastic building sites eg (Honestly the Boulcott site in Lower Hutt will be the most desirable site in Wellington,that's going to sell like hot cakes once started) and many awards for their overall performance and care standards. I'm going to have a talk to Julian Cook when I can get hold of him and will report back to you all after that,cheers couta

[winner69]

The man from First Capital was on radio earlier and said sales numbers were lower than their expectations

Maybe they will change their target or whatever analysts do.
N

[percy]

I would be congratulating Norah and the team for running a fantastic business in such a growth sector.
Winning the retirement village awards year after year shows they are the best.
I would also congratulate Norah for joining INA's board.Simon Owen of INA is a brilliant CEO and Norah will bring her skills with her.
I would congratulate management for selecting great sites/locations for the villages.
I would congratulate them on design and the building of quality residences.
I would tell them I am very proud to be a shareholder in such a fine company.
I may even say I think we are very well positioned!!

[winner69]

Something just don't stack up

Over the last 4 quarters (to 1Q14) they have sold 212 new units .... only 19 more than they sold in the same 4 quarters prior year (to 1Q13)

Rhetoric and the numbers just seem to stack up ...... momentum is slowing for some reason

[Goldstein]

Something just don't stack up

Over the last 4 quarters (to 1Q14) they have sold 212 new units .... only 19 more than they sold in the same 4 quarters prior year (to 1Q13)

Rhetoric and the numbers just seem to stack up ...... momentum is slowing for some reason


I really wonder whether it has to do with bringing the build in-house. Maybe there are some teething problems, with completions being pushed out.

[winner69]

I really wonder whether it has to do with bringing the build in-house. Maybe there are some teething problems, with completions being pushed out.

A good question to ask at the ASM

[Xerof]

Winner, I think it's just timing - e.g. in 2013 they built 209, sold 228. So they have sold more than they built, implying quite a long lead-in-time from construction to realising a sale.

They expect to deliver 250 newly constructed units this year. To me that should mean they will again sell more than that over the full period, given the lag from still having some unsold from last years build. Thats the momentum you are looking for. Then 2015, they want to build 300, and so forth

Q1 is a little flat - no big deal IMO. Plenty of time to bed in the baby boomers

the resale momentum is good though eh? (Q1 v Q1) That should be a no-brainer, given they are building a larger pool to turnover

[psychic]

Agree NewGuy - think some need to come to terms with the fact that we are not selling doughnuts here. Sales will jump around depending on development stage.
Even the resale comparison will jump around the average a bit depending on availability (it is a lifetime license to occupy after all- not a fixed term lease)

[Onion]

ACC are still interested.


Purchases of 650,000 shares for net consideration of NZD $2,249,227.50 on 7th April 2014

[psychic]

Hi Onion. This before the announcement but regardless, I'm not sure they read these things... :)

[couta1]

Think lag phase in terms of new sales,relate it to microbes,remember it takes 3 days from when the virus enters your body until you notice you are developing a cold apply this concept to Sums current new sales and you'll have your answer:cool:
Okay folks,as i thought above analogy spot on,Q1 results this year did not include any new village launches,last year Q1 included Dunedin and the final selldown of the Manakau village but great news folks there will be 3 new villages included in Q3 figures so keep the faith and yes Winner things are booming behind the scenes:t_up: Oh and i forgot to add we are well positioned

[Goldstein]

Okay folks,as i thought above analogy spot on,Q1 results this year did not include any new village launches,last year Q1 included Dunedin and the final selldown of the Manakau village but great news folks there will be 3 new villages included in Q3 figures so keep the faith and yes Winner things are booming behind the scenes:t_up: Oh and i forgot to add we are well positioned

Couta1, it looks like you've single-handedly turned the SP around today. Much obliged :)

I gather from your post that unconditional sales on spec are not included? i.e., a unit must be completed before it is marked as sold, even if there is an agreement in place with a purchaser?

[couta1]

As far as I'm aware there must be an unconditional sale before it can be counted but I'm going to get this from the horses mouth to end speculation on this issue once and for all:cool:

[Goldstein]

tbh, I would be alarmed if sales were counted officially until the unit was completed and occupied!

I can imagine if the demand for these types of units became acute, then some folk may buy a unit and leave it unoccupied for quite some time before they moved in. So I guess by occupied you might mean 'right to occupy'. I'm not sure what the rules around this would be.

[Xerof]

Ghost units - they still have to pay.......

[Banksie]

Quite a sell down by Norah.

https://www.nzx.com/companies/SUM/announcements/249409

[SirPrize]

Quite a sell down by Norah.

https://www.nzx.com/companies/SUM/announcements/249409

Indeed. Even if she deserved it - never a good look.

[Banksie]

Indeed. Even if she deserved it - never a good look.

I guess she could be buying herself a house for her retirement. (I wonder which summerset village it will be in ;) )

[Beagle]

Quite a sell down by Norah.

https://www.nzx.com/companies/SUM/announcements/249409

My concern regarding this transaction is this occurred shortly before flat Q1 sales metrics were released. It is highly likely she had inside knowledge the sales metrics were below market expectations. This is a very bad look for her regardless of what she may have required the funds for and does not reflect well upon the company.

[couta1]

Date of sale was April 7th,Q1 results April 9th,just a day apart,yep agree Roger not a good look,I was surprised at the volume also,feeling like picking up the phone but this is probably best addressed at the AGM in a crowd environment

[Tevita]

Ryman Healthcare have very much been favourably in the public eye on television lately. And in their slicker marketing techniques. Can SUM and MET afford conceding that advantage without a noticable fight? Word of mouth over those many and leisurely tea cups spreads like wildfire in ghetto-like institutions. I trust Infratil and NZ Super input to Met decisions in changing of the guard and tactics appreciate that their targetted clients can be quite adamant in their opinions once they arrive at them..

[Xerof]

Come on guys, she 'placed' them with ACC and other insto's without disrupting the market at all.

What was the market expectation? I only saw a Sharetrader thread expectation. When the Q1 was announced, it barely caused a ripple anyway

I think she has acted with shareholders interests at heart - it's a no win for her whenever she sold them

[Beagle]

Sorry Xerof I don't agree. A director should not be selling within a 10 day period prior too a material announcement in my opinion.
In my view its material when a company that proclaims its growth loud and long to shareholders and then announces a sales result that's ostensibly unchanged from two full years ago !! If this isn't a breech of NZX regulations it should be and is almost certainly questionable professional ethics in terms of a directors fiducary obligations in my opinion.
Nothing stopping her selling after the Q1 sales metrics so that the purchaser(s) could have made an informed decision. Insider trading ? Ohhh, there I said it !!

[couta1]

Buy volume has been building all day,perhaps all those guests viewing have spread the word re my post on anticipated Q3 results:cool:

[Xerof]

Roger, Don't be sorry, you are entitled to an opinion, just like me.

You can be sure the legality of doing the transaction would have been vetted by legal representatives, so calls for FMA inspection will be fruitless.

I would be less sanguine if the price was under $3.00 due to a reckless on-market dump, but as I say, it seems to have been transacted very professionally, even if the timing is 'unfortunate'

Anyway, discussion on the subject is good, but thats it from me, said my piece and moving on

[couta1]

When I say pick up the phone I mean to talk to Norah directly

[Mista_Trix]

When I say pick up the phone I mean to talk to Norah directly

*quiver, god your power makes me weak at the knees :-S

[winner69]

Took her time to disclose (slower than ACC) but made it within the 5 day period so all honky dory

The other day somebody was rapt that ACC was buying .... but prob a bit upset they were Norahs

Half of them were just cashing in her bonus anyway

But then skid may now get upset about the size of the bosses overall pay package with huge bonuses .... but that's another story and we wouldn't want to put that on a multiple of couta's hourly rate would we

Norah must be officially leaving as CEO soon anyway .... maybe her bonus bit (LTI) had to be sold anyway under the terms of the deal

[couta1]

She's a very approachable lady Mista Trix:cool:

[Beagle]

In my view directors who value their reputation need to be very careful to avoid the "perception" of a conflict of interest regardless of whether its real or perceived.

[Goldstein]

Roger, Don't be sorry, you are entitled to an opinion, just like me.

You can be sure the legality of doing the transaction would have been vetted by legal representatives, so calls for FMA inspection will be fruitless.

I would be less sanguine if the price was under $3.00 due to a reckless on-market dump, but as I say, it seems to have been transacted very professionally, even if the timing is 'unfortunate'

Anyway, discussion on the subject is good, but thats it from me, said my piece and moving on

I agree. To my mind SUM keep the market very well informed. The transaction would have taken a while to broker I suspect (somebody might be able to say how long). They have quartlery sales figures, so it was always going to be near one of these. I feel Norah is totally justified. To see the exact opposite consider David Darling and PEB.

[couta1]

Looks like a bit of recycling going on from Rym to Sum? Rym price being pressured down toward the $8.20 mark over the last while while Sum on the rise:cool:

[Beagle]

Getting hit pretty hard today, thoughts ?

[couta1]

Getting hit pretty hard today, thoughts ?
Just the nature of the market I'd say Roger,impatience with those anticipated good Q3 results a while off

[Beagle]

Buy depth got drilled hard this morning. I'm tempted to think one of the brokers has downgraded their view on the back of the disappointing Q1 sales result. As you've suggested mate, people have the patience of a knat.

[winner69]

So 360 before the much anticipated announcement early April and now 336 - nearly 7% down.

Me old linear regression chart for SUM was going a bit wonky so I had to recalibrate it the other week to keep the prices within the channels (most of the time) ..... last week the price went nowhere so the squiggly line got close to the bottom channel line .... and todays action makes my pretty chart look ugly

Maybe this indicates that the run for all solid stocks is over and there actually a rerating of most stocks underway .... like PEs of 30 being reduced to 20 or the something like that. Nothing to do with impatience methinks

[Snow Leopard]

I am sure that the technical guys will point out the $3.28 support level and the need to set your stops accordingly.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[winner69]

I am sure that the technical guys will point out the $3.28 support level and the need to set your stops accordingly.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

The RYM chart still very OK, thank goodness

[winner69]

I am sure that the technical guys will point out the $3.28 support level and the need to set your stops accordingly.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

I was going to say SUM was also 336 early November .....some FIVE months ago

Nowhere for 5 months, yes SUM is surely a stock for the patient - the very patient

Now you just being stupid winner ...pull yourself together please

[couta1]

The RYM chart still very OK, thank goodness
Ryman down from a high of $8.75 and hit $8.20 on Thursday last week so that's down 6% and struggling to get above $8.30,not much in it aye:cool:

[winner69]

Ryman down from a high of $8.75 and hit $8.20 on Thursday last week so that's down 6% and struggling to get above $8.30,not much in it aye:cool:

See I told you ....all good things being rerated .....rerated down

Maybe RYM will have a 7 in front of it soon ...and SUM a 2 ....just maybe

O

[Snow Leopard]

Some how Ryman looks nicer:

5746

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[percy]

Change your charts..Go to Yahoo charts.Still looks great.Still above the 200 day moving average.!!! lol.

[couta1]

Amazing how those International Index boys can make a chart look so much better aye PT:cool:

[Hoop]

So 360 before the much anticipated announcement early April and now 336 - nearly 7% down.

Me old linear regression chart for SUM was going a bit wonky so I had to recalibrate it the other week to keep the prices within the channels (most of the time) ..... last week the price went nowhere so the squiggly line got close to the bottom channel line .... and todays action makes my pretty chart look ugly

Maybe this indicates that the run for all solid stocks is over and there actually a rerating of most stocks underway .... like PEs of 30 being reduced to 20 or the something like that. Nothing to do with impatience methinks

Didn't have to recalibrate Winner ... It went wonky for a reason...using other TA indicators as confirmation would have told you the same story...SUM was broken.

Not all indicators triggered sell but that sudden fall on Tuesday 8th April was a fateful day..It was enough to do technical damage...I waited a couple of days for a recovery but it stalled and on the 10th April I sadly pushed the sell button for $3.43 and realised my +16% profit ..the end of a nice 9 month relationship....

[winner69]

Didn't have to recalibrate Winner ... It went wonky for a reason...using other TA indicators as confirmation would have told you the same story...SUM was broken.

Not all indicators triggered sell but that sudden fall on Tuesday 8th April was a fateful day..It was enough to do technical damage...I waited a couple of days for a recovery but it stalled and on the 10th April I sadly pushed the sell button..the end of a nice 9 month relationship....


Hoop, I know it went wonky for a reason but I was trying to bring some hope to SUM holders into the equation

Just like the NRL they change the rules while game in progress, that is if you playing the Cowboys

And SUM is not broken, just testing people's patience a bit. She'll be right

[Hoop]

Hoop, I know it went wonky for a reason but I was trying to bring some hope to SUM holders into the equation

Just like the NRL they change the rules while game in progress, that is if you playing the Cowboys

And SUM is not broken, just testing people's patience a bit. She'll be right

Its broken for now as it has been a couple of times during its 2.5 year life and in a bull cycle for all that time so those broken times were healthy bull market corrections....

Is this another bull market correction?...
I didn't have to pray and hope as I'm "out" with my capital gain secured and now awaiting re-entry....again

During SUMs 2.5 year listed history I have had three BUY/SELL occasions one of those occasions I mistimed and entered back 10% higher than my sell.. Even with that blunder overall I'm still ahead of SUMs +~250%% increase proving my TA strategy is better and less risky than buy and hope (hold).

[Snow Leopard]

...I'm still ahead of SUMs +~250%% increase proving my TA strategy is better and less risky than buy and hope (hold).

And that is how the argument started. :D

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[winner69]

Is this another bull market correction?...
I didn't have to pray and hope as I'm "out" with my capital gain secured and now awaiting re-entry....again

.

Way to go go Hoop

Good practice - worked for me in 2007/08 and again a few years ago

[couta1]

And that is how the argument started. :D

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
No tax to pay as he bought them with the intent to hold not to make a profit,he only sold to preserve capital:cool: No Tuis around here

[Hoop]

Yes I pay tax........ As I trade far too often I declare all my trades... as far as the IRD is concerned I'm in the business as a share trader and my trading profits/losses are taxed accordingly less expenses and depreciation

[robbo24]

Yes I pay tax........ As I trade far too often I declare all my trades... as far as the IRD is concerned I'm in the business as a share trader and my trading profits/losses are taxed accordingly less expenses and depreciation

I bet you have a nice desk and office chair to claim depreciation against!

[Hoop]

I bet you have a nice desk and office chair to claim depreciation against!.
No Robbo I haven't ....both old and depreciated.

[couta1]

Got a surprise to see it drop to $3.32 when I got home,moved below its MA100 at $3.40 so not good,Ryman struggling to gain any traction although not dropping,definitely something negative going on in the macro environment here,wondering about the predicted rises in the OCR are having an effect,heard through the grapevine that a Ryman sales rep(Not Auckland) has been finding it harder to move units in the 400k plus bracket of late,hmm food for thought,time to baton down the hatches and go below deck for a while maybe

[winner69]

New Guy mentioned on another thread that he liked the PSAR as a technical indicator. I agree for those trading shorter term trends

SUM chart below showing PSAR courtesy of yahoo

Not too good looking at the moment - moosie would say short term traders wouldn't be in and need to wait until the trend changes / couta et al would say show patience as another green line is due

Wonder what will turn out

For me I just hope there be no hanging babies or death crosses

[couta1]

moosie unlike alot of stocks you follow SUM has sound basic fundimentals so any fall in share price will find plenty of support.
Yep I'm just airing my thoughts and trying to help others to understand the drop,I'm not in the red with SUM at current prices and I look upon it as a 3-5 year investment but one must also consider how low it may go,Hoops strategy has obvious benefits but from a FA viewpoint SUM has a massive future with strong tailwinds,I'm sure the Q3 results will be very good once those new village sales kick in as indicated to me by management,I also think if Rym wasn't on the international index its price would also be down more rather than treading water as it currently is but expect it to start rising in a week or so as it gets closer to the half yearly results and will probably drag Sum up with it as has happened before

[couta1]

Anybody that honestly thinks SUM is in trouble should get their head checked. At the very least, they should have a look at how RYM's underlying earnings increased every year during the worst economic times in 80 years. IMO, SUM is just as resilient (if not more) than RYM.
True but unfortunately Sum seems to be plagued by an overdose of fickle shareholders who don't understand the real long term value of the company,they are a bit like those pesky reef fish that keep stealing your bait while your trying to catch a decent fish:cool:

[Hoop]

Couta1....True but unfortunately Sum seems to be plagued by an overdose of fickle shareholders who don't understand the real long term value of the company,

OCR now at 3%..as expected...
Maybe SUM and RYM were factoring in this changing variable over the last few weeks. ...RBNZ telegraphed earlier that more OCR rises to come this year and next...

[couta1]

Couta1....True but unfortunately Sum seems to be plagued by an overdose of fickle shareholders who don't understand the real long term value of the company,

OCR now at 3%..as expected...
Maybe SUM and RYM were factoring in this changing variable over the last few weeks. ...RBNZ telegraphed earlier that more OCR rises to come this year and next...
Yep could be,I had this impression when I wrote post #1844 and I guess this will be offset once the next set of good results from either company roll out

[couta1]

Yeah um no

NTA is calculated for retirement villages based on mark to market pricing of the underlying villages prepared by CBRE and other valuers, and these are usually pretty generous.

Ok, the care businesses 'value' wont be included in the NTA but lets be real - that is a small proportion of value. Also, the ability to grow future revenue from existing land banks is not included, but at most this should be a 20%-30% premium to NTA imo.

The differential between NTA and share price is going to lead to mass tears for RYM/SUM shareholders (at some stage).

'Fundamental' value does not come into it for these stocks, I'd stick to using indicators if I was playing with these puppies.
SC Dire need will drive these stocks supported by any Govt in power at the time.

[Beagle]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/64782155/nz-migration-rises-to-11-year-high-in-march-as-fewer-kiwis-leave-for-australia.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NZ+migration+rises+to+11-year+high+in+March+as+fewer+kiwis+leave+for+Austra lia&utm_content=NZ+migration+rises+to+11-year+high+in+March+as+fewer+kiwis+leave+for+Austra lia+CID_ebcdd8a7dd290f5df92b0458dd4e2c60&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle64782155nz-migration-rises-to-11-year-high-in-march-as-fewer-kiwis-leave-for-australiahtml

N.Z. migration rises to 11 year high.

[winner69]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/64782155/nz-migration-rises-to-11-year-high-in-march-as-fewer-kiwis-leave-for-australia.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NZ+migration+rises+to+11-year+high+in+March+as+fewer+kiwis+leave+for+Austra lia&utm_content=NZ+migration+rises+to+11-year+high+in+March+as+fewer+kiwis+leave+for+Austra lia+CID_ebcdd8a7dd290f5df92b0458dd4e2c60&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle64782155nz-migration-rises-to-11-year-high-in-march-as-fewer-kiwis-leave-for-australiahtml

N.Z. migration rises to 11 year high.

Might reach 40,000 this year

Another 14,000 homes needed (using average). Should help Fletchers

Probably not in retirement villages though ...but might help those older ones thinking of moving in a home get a good price for their home

O those 40,000 probably all left the country again before they need a home

[Beagle]

As others have noted there's been a clear break below the 100 day moving average and technically the stock looks broken.
This situation isn't helped by Mrs Barlow unloading the vast majority of her stake in what in my view as previously articulated amounts to questionable circumstances, (just before a very disappointing Q1 sales result was announced). Its all very well for one to talk about a potential significant uptick in Q3 sales but that's nearly six months away and is only talk at this stage. Regardless one way or the other on that speculation the fact remains that there's lots of water to go under the bridge before 10 October 2014 when that might be announced and there's always some execution risk when you try to sucessfully bring all development activities in-house, (obviously you don't find highly experienced and effective construction and project managers on any old street corner).
Sum looks fairly valued (on an adjusted fair value earnings basis at a PE of 33) to me at this point in time and accordingly I have reduced my overweight position and expect a flat / market under-performing SP performance until they get more runs on the board.

[couta1]

Roger I'm interested on how you view Ryman at the moment based on your opinion that they were fully valued and Sum was the better prospect? I think Sum will be back over $3.40 next week.

[couta1]

Roger, I don't think many people invest in this stock on day trader basis (compared to other more volatile stocks). Accordingly, breaking the 100MA or whatever is largely irrelevant. Its unlikely to fuel a downward traders spiral so best forgotten. Technically broken or not, its still fundamentally sound IMHO and so I won't be reducing my position.
I reckon it will move back above the MA100 next week and will be dragged higher by Rymans upcoming half year result in June,they always move as a pair to a certain extent.

[Beagle]

Roger I'm interested on how you view Ryman at the moment based on your opinion that they were fully valued and Sum was the better prospect? I think Sum will be back over $3.40 next week.
Ryman appear to be trading on a PE of about 30 and are probably over-priced based a growth rate of 20% in my opinion. I'm expecting expansion in Australia to be a significant execution risk for the company.

Newguy, Technical analysis isn't about day trader stuff as I am sure you are aware. Breaking the 100 day moving average represents a genuine change in the momentum of the stock on a weighted average and time adjusted basis over 3 months and the way I see it for a company to so effusivly talk about itself as a growth stock and then report a quarters sales that are ostensibly unchanged from a whopping two years ago doesn't cut the mustard when you're talking about these sort of lofty PE ratio's. Its not like they're paying you to wait with decent dividends is it ! They don't have the lengthy and sustained earnings growth record of Ryman to fall back upon so they need more runs on the board to justify the present price earnings ratio. Its a good long term growth story but I expect the SP for the next quarter or two to under-perform. They've basically done nothing for me in terms of my five months of investment since early November 2013 so i'm bored waiting.
I think globally we will see a shift to value stocks as interest rates rise and lofty price earnings multiples with implied poor dividend yeilds could come under pressure. I still have some but am activly seeking a more diversified portfolio.

[Beagle]

I reckon it will move back above the MA100 next week and will be dragged higher by Rymans upcoming half year result in June,they always move as a pair to a certain extent.
You must have a different chart than I have mate. 1 Year to 24 April 2014 RYM up 46%, SUM up only 12%.
Wonder why Mr Saunders, General manager sales and marketing was selling in December and now Mrs Barlow selling out most of her stake in April.
Recently I noticed SUM advertising for a new head of construction manager, Wellington postion, I wonder if they managed to fill that position and how excellent is the calibre of the new person given the huge deamnd for high calibre people in this sector with the Chrustchurch rebuild and all......like I said mate, there's execution risk bringing in all development in-house, maybe that's part of the reason for the disappointing Q1 sales result ?

[couta1]

Roger based on my calcs of my entry price into Rym versus Sum and profit to date since last November Sum would have given me more cashed up profit except over the last week,basically Sum and Ryman are equal on an entry of $7.70 for Rym and $3.17 for Sum and Sum at $3.40 and Rym at $8.30, most of Rymans 46% gains must have occurred before last November. Sums Q1 results last year were elevated due to the inclusion of more new villages,which were lacking in this years results but will come on tap in Q3 once the sales from 3 new villages flow through,I have noticed the drag up effect several times on a your turn my turn basis. Disc hold a small parcel of Ryman as I like to hold some shares in the homes I work in -5k shares.

[Beagle]

Next weeks AGM will be interesting. Flights are booked so despite having a very sore ankle and a slight head cold i'm still planning on attending at this stage. If all it amounts too is little more than a lets pat ourselves on the back for last year's 46% increase in net profit I'll be disappointed and probably have wasted a full day, (mind you getting on the turps with Forest will most likely be fun :)) I looking for Mr Cook to drive this company harder in terms of its financial performance and looking forward to hopefully seeing how this might be projected to happen. With his background I'm hoping he's the man for the job.

[SimonHouse]

Next weeks AGM will be interesting. Flights are booked so despite having a very sore ankle and a slight head cold i'm still planning on attending at this stage. If all it amounts too is little more than a lets pat ourselves on the back for last year's 46% increase in net profit I'll be disappointed and probably have wasted a full day, (mind you getting on the turps with Forest will most likely be fun :)) I looking for Mr Cook to drive this company harder in terms of its financial performance and looking forward to hopefully seeing how this might be projected to happen. With his background I'm hoping he's the man for the job.


Good on you - I hope its a useful trip!

[couta1]

Shame Roger,I feel your dissapointment with Sums performance added to your dissapointment with Rymans care of your Dad,a double blow from the sector in different ways. Are you staying over in Wellington on Wed evening?

[Beagle]

Thanks mate that's very kind of you to say. To be fair I made a few quid out of Ryman and it can't be easy caring for late stage dementia patients.

SUM will be good in the long run, (I still have some), and while I have modest expectations of SP performance in the short term, over the long haul these will be a good share and I will invest more again when I feel the time is right.

Flying back departing at 6.40 p.m. on Wednesday. Fair bit fo time to kill after the AGM though.

[SimonHouse]

We expect a fulsome update Roger!

(And thank you for sharing with us, in advance)

[Beagle]

I'll do my best mate. It'll be interesting to know why sales for Q1 2014 are ostensibly unchanged from Q1 2013 and Q1 2012.

[couta1]

I think the fact that Q1 for 2012 and 2013 included new village sales and Q1 2014 did not pretty much answers that particular question IMO

[forest]

SUM AGM 30 Apr 2014 1.00pm The Hui Room at Te Raukaura
Odlins Square
Taranaki Street Wharf
Wellington

As mentioned before on this tread Roger and I will be attending the AGM on Wednesday. We have a spare couple of hours after the meeting before our return to Auckland. It would be great if you Wellingtonions can suggest a nice place walking distance from the meeting for us to have a drink and ponder over any possible new info we have gained from the AGM. And if other share traders joined us for a catch up at the same time that would be even better.
Cheers,
Forest

[couta1]

Could someone from the Wellington central area respond to Forrest re a possible meeting place,I live 40k out of the city so not familiar with options close to meeting venue?

[forest]

Wish I could come but can't. Would greatly appreciate if you guys could give us a brief rundown after when you get a chance. Thanks! :)

One of us will report back to you.

[winner69]

Could someone from the Wellington central area respond to Forrest re a possible meeting place,I live 40k out of the city so not familiar with options close to meeting venue?

St Johns Bar is right next door and a cool place. Macs Brewbar is also next door (wharf entrance) and that's not too bad.

You could wander down the wharves (to the north past the TSB centre) and go to Foxglove. Chicago is on the way to Foxglove but I'd give that a miss

I'd go the St Johns way ....was the old ambulance station hence the name ...and more likely to spot the movers and shakers

[winner69]

Couta - forgot to add the helipad is pretty close by if you prefer that form of transport instead of a 40k drive to the big smoke

[percy]

I really do learn a great deal going to agms and company presentations.The directors really do like to be seen talking to shareholders after the meeting,so best chance to help them out by talking to them!!!!
I enjoy listening to their answers to questions asked during the meeting.
I also learn a great deal talking to other shareholders after any meeting.
Roger and Forest enjoy Wellington and the meeting.
I am pleased to be a shareholder in such a great company in the expanding retirement sector.It has be well lead by Norah Barlow and I am sure we are "well positioned."
Snapiti.Get to the meeting. If for no other reason it is well worth meeting Forest and Roger.

[couta1]

Not sure if I'll make the meeting but will be at the St Johns bar to meet Roger and Forest (No Helicopter winner but could bring the BB chev) Snapiti as we haven't met yet and I owe you a drink remember?would be good if you could make the bar mate:cool:

[Snow Leopard]

Or is it simply for the sausage rolls and earl grey tea.


Used to do it for me everytime :t_up:

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[forest]

don't mean to offend anyone but have to ask the questions....
If you have no questions to ask the board in a public forum what is the point in going to a shareholders meeting only to hear well rehearsed management babble none of which you cant read on line after the event.
I have been to a few now, not just SUM, and they all seem the same, shareholders sitting there egearly waiting for the CEO to speak and waiting for the very rare shareholder who dare speak up and challenge what the board is telling them.
Or is it simply for the sausage rolls and earl grey tea.
For me I would rather sit down in private and read the minutes from the meeting.
It is much easier to decipher well rehearsed hype and preaching from reality this way.
disc hold lots of SUM and are very pleased with the company and management.
I dont see any benefit of going to the meeting even though I live in wellington beside's I have eaten too many easter eggs this easter and don't need any sausage rolls next week.

Like Percy I get lots of good info from AGM's. Body language when the Chairman or CEO try to be flexible with the truth is a lot easier to pick when one attend the AGM. Think last DIL AGM when I sold DIL shares soon after AGM because body language contradicted the answer given to us share holders. And I bought additional THL after their AGM, on body language reinforcing the CEO positive comments at the meeting.

[forest]

Not sure if I'll make the meeting but will be at the St Johns bar to meet Roger and Forest (No Helicopter winner but could bring the BB chev) Snapiti as we haven't met yet and I owe you a drink remember?would be good if you could make the bar mate:cool:

Thanks Winner for your suggestions. St Johns bar next door sounds excellent, I assume Roger will agree to that, a quick hop next door will give more drinking time. Will be good meeting you Couta1.

[iceman]

Thanks Winner for your suggestions. St Johns bar next door sounds excellent, I assume Roger will agree to that, a quick hob next door will give more drinking time. Will be good meeting you Couta1.

I am hoping to make it to the AGM and look forward to catching up at St Johns bar afterwards.

[Tevita]

I remember the days when Max Gunn taught us how to ask the difficult questions of the Board . They were never comfortable with him not interested in the cream cakes later. He once started asking for the resignation of the entire BIL Board. Bruce Sheppard came later but he was more an orator like MP Shane Jones.

[Beagle]

Thanks Winner for your suggestions. St Johns bar next door sounds excellent, I assume Roger will agree to that, a quick hop next door will give more drinking time. Will be good meeting you Couta1.
Sounds good to me mate, looking forward too it :)

[Joshuatree]

Meanwhile still sitting on cash after RYM selldown.Will get a few MET and SUM at some point. Like the attitude re these oldies who prob don't give stuff re day to day s/prices.:)


http://www.sooziq.com/3789/a-german-retirement-community-did-a-calendar-where-seniors-amazingly-recreated-famous-movie-scenes/

[Goldstein]

SUM AGM 30 Apr 2014 1.00pm The Hui Room at Te Raukaura
Odlins Square
Taranaki Street Wharf
Wellington

As mentioned before on this tread Roger and I will be attending the AGM on Wednesday. We have a spare couple of hours after the meeting before our return to Auckland. It would be great if you Wellingtonions can suggest a nice place walking distance from the meeting for us to have a drink and ponder over any possible new info we have gained from the AGM. And if other share traders joined us for a catch up at the same time that would be even better.
Cheers,
Forest

Hi guys, I'm not going, but lived in Wellington for 16 years until recently.

You might want to check out:
http://www.hashigozake.co.nz/

It's a cult beer bar, that has different beers each week. It has a wonderful cross-section of society in there. Be ggod to hear from those that attend. I hope someone asks if the Q1 results indicate a problem with the in-house development pipeline. Cheers to all.

[Goldstein]

Solid buying today. Might touch $3.40 (again) before close. Any ideas?

[Mista_Trix]

Solid buying today. Might touch $3.40 (again) before close. Any ideas?

And another 250,000 just went through, massive day.

[Beagle]

I am hoping to make it to the AGM and look forward to catching up at St Johns bar afterwards.

Good stuff. One of us will leave our car keys on the table where at in the bar so you'll know who to hook-up with :)

[iceman]

Good stuff. One of us will leave our car keys on the table where at in the bar so you'll know who to hook-up with :)

LOL. Look forward to a catch up.

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Hi all,
Which bar?
Is it St John's for definite.
Thanks and regards

[iceman]

Hi all,
Which bar?
Is it St John's for definite.
Thanks and regards

Yes it is.

[Goldstein]

Sellers are a bit thin on the ground.

[couta1]

I reckon it will move back above the MA100 next week and will be dragged higher by Rymans upcoming half year result in June,they always move as a pair to a certain extent.
I remember this post,what a difference a few days make aye:cool:

[Jasemc]

I remember this post,what a difference a few days make aye:cool:
Nice little upwards movement before agm some insider info or hope:confused:

[Goldstein]

CEO address and further land acquisition announced.

https://www.nzx.com/companies/SUM/announcements/249914
https://www.nzx.com/companies/SUM/announcements/249915

I wonder how the boys are going with there sausy rolls.

[Jasemc]

Well as we haven't herd from them:t_up:

[Goldstein]

I reckon it's couta's round :)

[Goldstein]

Yep, about $2m has gone through at $3.48. I reckon a natural support will form at $3.50

[Harvey Specter]

lagging behind RYM though

[Mista_Trix]

Beautiful gains in the sector today, should be follow on tomorrow above $3.50. Any reason why RYM beats the pants off SUM on no news?

...Coz for the last year thats just how its gone :-S

[winner69]

Beautiful gains in the sector today, should be follow on tomorrow above $3.50. Any reason why RYM beats the pants off SUM on no news?

Because RYM is best in breed

SUM is lucky that RYM is there else shareprice would not be 350

But then couta will say it is the nasty index guys playing silly buggers

[iceman]

sausy rolls are all gone by now probably being replemished with gin

Indeed. Couta on his way to airport with Roger & Forest. Nobody in a state to seriously comment
at moment though :). Except to say its basically steady as she goes but internalisation going slower than we were all hoping for. Company explained static Q1 numbers due to high sales in newly opened Dunedin in Q1 2013 but no openings Q1 this year. Co says its on target with annual unit sales and nothing really restricting growth except their goal not to jeopardize on quality of care

[Toulouse - Luzern]

sausy rolls are all gone by now probably being replemished with gin

Actually club sandwiches and cookies, very good.

Several adjourned after to St Johns bar later for the Tiger beer.

Overall the AGM was well done, and earnest directors was my impression.

I think the one obvious area for improvement with the AGM is that the forward guidance could be much better, and responses to questions about this and progress with in house development at the meeting could have also have been much better.

For me comments along the lines of "it is very complex", "directors are reluctant to do this", "may set up too rapid development", "ask your broker" etc are not good responses to a legitimate questions from shareholders attending the meeting and seeking information that is relevant to all of us.

imho

[couta1]

Beautiful gains in the sector today, should be follow on tomorrow above $3.50. Any reason why RYM beats the pants off SUM on no news?
Ho hum Ho hum as he shrugs off his cider induced headache,Moosie you should know by now that Rymans price always increases a month or so before its results are released,same old but good pattern and yes winner those index boys are back as well ie check out the closing volume,no comment on AGM at the moment other than the company at the bar was excellent(Roger/Forrest/Iceman and his good lady/Toulouse and meeting onion also beforehand,apologies to anyone left out) Looks like Sum due for a rise tomorrow aye:cool:

[Goldstein]

Indeed. Couta on his way to airport with Roger & Forest. Nobody in a state to seriously comment
at moment though :). Except to say its basically steady as she goes but internalisation going slower than we were all hoping for. Company explained static Q1 numbers due to high sales in newly opened Dunedin in Q1 2013 but no openings Q1 this year. Co says its on target with annual unit sales and nothing really restricting growth except their goal not to jeopardize on quality of care

Thanks Iceman (and T-L and Couta). The explanation above sounds reasonable. I recall RYM suffered some leaky buildings, and have also had some bad press about care. So perhaps SUM just trying to get things right.

[winner69]

Actually club sandwiches and cookies, very good.

Several adjourned after to St Johns bar later for the Tiger beer.

Overall the AGM was well done, and earnest directors was my impression.

I think the one obvious area for improvement with the AGM is that the forward guidance could be much better, and responses to questions about this and progress with in house development at the meeting could have also have been much better.

For me comments along the lines of "it is very complex", "directors are reluctant to do this", "may set up too rapid development", "ask your broker" etc are not good responses to a legitimate questions from shareholders attending the meeting and seeking information that is relevant to all of us.

imho

Interesting comments Toulouse. Thanks

Suppose all these 'very complex' issues and keeping tabs on the pace of development ......along with the requirement to actually talk to shareholders once a year .......is a good reason to ask for higher directors fees.

I presume that passed. I voted NO

Greedy pack of bastards ......and they have the temerity to talk about their low paid staff at the same meeting.

Seems like the ordinary man in the street shareholders treated like second class citizens (were there many insto investors present?) but as long as you came away the warm fuzzies mission accomplished.

[couta1]

My summary of the AGM is as follows. Basically steady as she goes,board looks well balanced with its new additions but yes winner its always a prickly subject when board members are getting paid 80 k per year for offering up a few days a month while sitting on multiple boards and collecting multiple fees. Forward earning guidance lacking other than confirmation of projected build rate but this was balanced IMO by their focus and committement to maintaining excellent care standards for their residents and their desire to remain best of breed in this area . In house operations still in juvenile stage with many areas of savings still untapped at this point. Finally for those with less than a 3-5 year time frame for their investment perhaps they should look elsewhere because their expectations may not be met.

[macduffy]

I didn't attend the AGM but reports give the impression of a smoothly-run formality, as a lot of these meetings are. I don't expect "market-moving" revelations from AGMs - after all, directors need to be careful to observe the rules around market sensitive information - but as Percy has observed elsewhere it can be useful to watch the body language at times.

Disc: Holding a few and not fazed by hourly/daily/weekly fluctuations in the shareprice!

[Beagle]

Others have summed up the SUM AGM well so its only left for me to add the following:-
- During question and answer time Mr Cook made it clear that whilst the company was very reluctant to give specific guidance it was not expecting 2014 profit growth to match 2013 growth.
- Increased development margins by bringing development "in-house" would take some considerable time to eventuate
It was a real pleasure spending time with my fellow shareholders and meeting some of the team at SUM.

[BlackPeter]

people with deep pockets (NZ Super fund) buying in:
https://www.nzx.com/companies/SUM/announcements/250015

[couta1]

My wife received an email on her phone from Aged care housing weekly, an Aussie aged care news publication which includes NZ news and the latest snipets are Norah Barlow buys into Ingenia, interesting she does this after selling down her Summerset holding isn't it? Remember she is a non executive director on the Ingenia board as well as being on the Summerset board.The other snippet says Summerset claims it wants to be the best care provider but new CEO has already made a decision which precludes that possibility. I'd love to read the full articles but its subscription only however after a month you can read the old edition for nothing, hmm I sense a slow down bumps ahead sign being waved here

[winner69]

Couta - you say The other snippet says Summerset claims it wants to be the best care provider but new CEO has already made a decision which precludes that possibility.


Can you elaborate .....seems a bi ominous

[couta1]

Couta - you say The other snippet says Summerset claims it wants to be the best care provider but new CEO has already made a decision which precludes that possibility.


Can you elaborate .....seems a bi ominous That's all she got on her phone,you would need to subscribe to get the full article or read it for free after a month,The question I have is has Norah sold all her shares in Sum? and put that money into Ingenia, if so that would be a concern to me while she remains on both boards don't you think? Yep I'd love to read the full article on that other snippet now but I'm not paying $300 Aussie to do so.

[percy]

My wife received an email on her phone from Aged care housing weekly, an Aussie aged care news publication which includes NZ news and the latest snipets are Norah Barlow buys into Ingenia, interesting she does this after selling down her Summerset holding isn't it? Remember she is a non executive director on the Ingenia board as well as being on the Summerset board.The other snippet says Summerset claims it wants to be the best care provider but new CEO has already made a decision which precludes that possibility. I'd love to read the full articles but its subscription only however after a month you can read the old edition for nothing, hmm I sense a slow down bumps ahead sign being waved here

Norah Barlow brought 178,000 INA shares at 50 cents each.Total cost A$89,000.
To be invited onto INA board speaks highly for the regard she is held in the retirement sector.
Interestingly, the CEO of INA is Simon Owen, who made his name with Aveum in the Australian retirement sector.
Even more interesting is the fact that INA is about 33% New Zealand owned.
Win win situation for both INA and SUM.

[couta1]

Thanks for the extra info Percy re the share purchase but I sure would like to read the full article regarding that other snippet ,just have to wait till June

[Goldstein]

I wouldn't get too wound up. The CEO's decision could have been some arbitrary cost cutting measure that has been picked up. The magazine seems rather aggressive and sensationalist with it's articles - perhaps to increase subscription.

[percy]

well said percy but you forgot to say they are well positioned.
Interesting to note that the tyndall foundation have a big holding.

Sorry forgot myself,watching the rugby.!!
Also of interest is comparing the share price with NTA.
INA; sp 49cents .... nta 35cents.
SUM; sp.$3.50 .....nta $1.30 [approx.]
RYM; sp $8.89 .....nta $1.57.
Will leave it to others to decide which is "well positioned."
I own shares in each,Free ride with both INA and RYM while SUM average cost is about $1.30.
Australian retirement sector has been more lifestyle while NZ is total care.This is where I see Norah Barlow's experience will come in handy for INA.

[couta1]

I wouldn't get too wound up. The CEO's decision could have been some arbitrary cost cutting measure that has been picked up. The magazine seems rather aggressive and sensationalist with it's articles - perhaps to increase subscription.
Not getting too wound up,just putting the info out there for all to consider and keeping you all informed,don't see them increasing their subscriptions too quickly at current prices:cool:

[Goldstein]

Good on you Couta. I see the same magazine really panned RYM's entry into Australia.

[Joshuatree]

Sorry forgot myself,watching the rugby.!!
Also of interest is comparing the share price with NTA.
INA; sp 49cents .... nta 35cents.
SUM; sp.$3.50 .....nta $1.30 [approx.]
RYM; sp $8.89 .....nta $1.57.
Will leave it to others to decide which is "well positioned."
I own shares in each,Free ride with both INA and RYM while SUM average cost is about $1.30.
Australian retirement sector has been more lifestyle while NZ is total care.This is where I see Norah Barlow's experience will come in handy for INA.

Don't forget AOG in Aus slowly morphing into a pure play retirement vehicle currently with 12,000 residents in 75 villages.. Likely a div soon.

[percy]

Don't forget AOG in Aus slowly morphing into a pure play retirement vehicle currently with 12,000 residents in 75 villages.. Likely a div soon.

I have added AOG to my list to look at.
Since I last looked at this sector, I notice APZ has weakened from $1.65 to $1.34,while LIC has gone from $1 to $1.40.

[aGuyCalledBob]

...The other snippet says Summerset claims it wants to be the best care provider but new CEO has already made a decision which precludes that possibility...

this kind of 'snippet' would lead me to put little weight in the story they are spinning for subscriptions.
you cant just throw out a statement like that, alluding to what sounds like a major decision without mentioning what it is.
Would be a pretty poor CEO that makes a decision which precludes SUM from being the best care provider... I'm sure we would be aware of this 'decision'...

[Beagle]

Fair value at current level in my opinion.

[iceman]

I think you are right Roger but with a good upside potential if they successfully internalise development and increase margin from 11% to 17% like Ryman. That would increase underlying profit (and dividend) by around 20-25% like we worked out in the pub last week 😉

[In4a$]

I'd like to think it will run to its high of about $3.60,
Disc: topped up at $3.33 in feb, missed selling at the $3.60 high early april, I was to greedy at $3.63, maybe this month.

[couta1]

I'd like to think it will run to its high of about $3.60,
Disc: topped up at $3.33 in feb, missed selling at the $3.60 high early april, I was to greedy at $3.63, maybe this month.
High was $3.75 are you long at all on Sum in4a$ ? or have you got 2 parcels,one for trading and one long?

[Beagle]

I think you are right Roger but with a good upside potential if they successfully internalise development and increase margin from 11% to 17% like Ryman. That would increase underlying profit (and dividend) by around 20-25% like we worked out in the pub last week ��
Yeah mate, all the best calculations are back of an envelope over a few beers :)
No question there's scope for increased development margin but I am sure you'll recall how we discussed this will take some considerable time to achieve. The other thing that I am not sure if I discussed with you in depth is that Ryman run their own development company whereas SUM have a different interpretation of what constitutes bringing all devlopment in-house. Whether they ever achieve the same development margins as RYM is an open question in my mind. On that subject, based on my discussion with Mr Cook after the meeting I would like to advise that SUM are very keen to recruit a highly experienced procurement manager, (it seems they are struggling to find the right person), too work towards more procurement efficiencies, (someone very high up in the procurement side of things at Fletcher's would be ideal I would have thought)..if anyone knows someone really good that might be interested in a change please let Julian Cook know.

[In4a$]

High was $3.75 are you long at all on Sum in4a$ ? or have you got 2 parcels,one for trading and one long?

Yes, RYM, SUM, SML, I trade about 30% of my holding short term, 60% hold long term. I try to sell 30% when price is at a high then wait and buy again in the next dip. Not always at once, IE with RYM last Friday was hoping for $8.90 but sold 1k x 3 at $8.73, $8.79, $8.77 hopefully price will drop to $8.40 or below then I will buy that 3k again. Dosnt always work, I often get me re-entry point wrong, or sell to early, but I dont risk my main holding so if price keeps going up I still gain, and I still have a holding to get dividends.
Being patient and waiting for price to drop is the hardest bit. I like at least a 5% drop or a value change so I can make a $1k profit but do that 3 or 4 times a year plus get a growth in share value keeps my portfolio looking healthy.
Over the years have done this with AIA, FPH, CAV, HLG and others, worked well as long as stock is profitable and trending up and the price fluctuats as RYM, SUM does at the moment.
My other stocks are all either short term or long term.

[Beagle]

^^ Quite a good idea.
Another question I asked directors after the meeting was if they had seen any impact from the change in the Reserve bank's required lending ratio's yet ? Not YET was the response, with the emphasis on YET !
And here we see the first real sign that higher interest rates and the change in bank's deposit ratio's is starting to BITE.
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/a4cb8a51/auckland-house-sales-plunge-24-percent-in-april-as-interest-rates-rise-loan-restrictions-weigh.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Auckland+house+sales+plunge+24+percen t+in+April+as+interest+rates+rise+loan+restriction s+weigh&utm_content=Auckland+house+sales+plunge+24+percent +in+April+as+interest+rates+rise+loan+restrictions +weigh+CID_5ed8eb821ae495a8485396d0d2f07b4d&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticlea4cb8a51auckla nd-house-sales-plunge-24-percent-in-april-as-interest-rates-rise-loan-restrictions-weighhtml

[Leftfield]

Yes, RYM, SUM, SML, I trade about 30% of my holding short term, 60% hold long term. I try to sell 30% when price is at a high then wait and buy again in the next dip.

Thanks for sharing..... via trial and error I've ended up adopting a similar strategy. So far so good.

[percy]

Thought it only fair to let someone else have the pleasure of owning a few of our SUM shares today.
Has brought the av price of the balance of our holding down to 35.7cents per share,while today's purchase of more PGW has taken av cost of them up to 40.1cents.

[blocker3]

Sorry forgot myself,watching the rugby.!!
Also of interest is comparing the share price with NTA.
INA; sp 49cents .... nta 35cents.
SUM; sp.$3.50 .....nta $1.30 [approx.]
RYM; sp $8.89 .....nta $1.57.
Will leave it to others to decide which is "well positioned."
I own shares in each,Free ride with both INA and RYM while SUM average cost is about $1.30.
Australian retirement sector has been more lifestyle while NZ is total care.This is where I see Norah Barlow's experience will come in handy for INA.

Hi Percy

Good information that you have passed on regarding Norah Barlow going to INA in OZ. I did not know this.

I am now going to keep a watch on this stock and if she rubs off her skills onto INA like Summerset ,it will grow very nicely.

Good luck with the cash that you now have for new buy's.Well Done

Cheers
Blocker

[percy]

Hi Percy

Good information that you have passed on regarding Norah Barlow going to INA in OZ. I did not know this.

I am now going to keep a watch on this stock and if she rubs off her skills onto INA like Summerset ,it will grow very nicely.

Good luck with the cash that you now have for new buy's.Well Done

Cheers
Blocker

Hi Blocker,
I think a few of your fellow Taurangans sharetraders are already holders of INA.
It is a big deal that she has joined the board of INA.The CEO of INA is Simon Owen, who also has a wealth of experience in the retirement village sector.So I expect it will mean sharing new ideas ,which will benefit both INA and SUM.

[blocker3]

Hi Blocker,
I think a few of your fellow Taurangans sharetraders are already holders of INA.
It is a big deal that she has joined the board of INA.The CEO of INA is Simon Owen, who also has a wealth of experience in the retirement village sector.So I expect it will mean sharing new ideas ,which will benefit both INA and SUM.

Hi Percy

Didn't know that as well.... But I now see him there.

I have sold down a few Ryman shares a few weeks back and I have been looking and buying Oz shares. The dollar is so good at the momement.

However still holding on Summerset

Cheers
Blocker

[percy]

I too sold down RYM [too early],yet still hold some.
SUM we still have a good holding,just wanted to add to our PGW holding .
I brought into INA a long time ago at about 7.5cents.Added when they had an issue at 36.5 cents last year. Then sold the new issue shares to give me a free ride.I like all three RYM,SUM and INA.I have not researched the other companies in the Australian retirement village sector,as I had Aveum when Simon Owen was CEO ,and am very pleased with what he has/and is doing with INA.Having Norah Barlow joining the board is really the icing on the cake as far as I am concerned.
I would read the INA annual report,and announcements before deciding whether it suits you or not.

[blocker3]

I too sold down RYM [too early],yet still hold some.
SUM we still have a good holding,just wanted to add to our PGW holding .
I brought into INA a long time ago at about 7.5cents.Added when they had an issue at 36.5 cents last year. Then sold the new issue shares to give me a free ride.I like all three RYM,SUM and INA.I have not researched the other companies in the Australian retirement village sector,as I had Aveum when Simon Owen was CEO ,and am very pleased with what he has/and is doing with INA.Having Norah Barlow joining the board is really the icing on the cake as far as I am concerned.
I would read the INA annual report,and announcements before deciding whether it suits you or not.


Hi Percy
WOW you have done good with INA already. Thanks for the advice. When I get a chance I will read up on INA further before purchacing.

Cheers
Blocker

[Tevita]

I too sold down RYM [too early],yet still hold some.
SUM we still have a good holding,just wanted to add to our PGW holding .
I brought into INA a long time ago at about 7.5cents.Added when they had an issue at 36.5 cents last year. Then sold the new issue shares to give me a free ride.I like all three RYM,SUM and INA.I have not researched the other companies in the Australian retirement village sector,as I had Aveum when Simon Owen was CEO ,and am very pleased with what he has/and is doing with INA.Having Norah Barlow joining the board is really the icing on the cake as far as I am concerned.
I would read the INA annual report,and announcements before deciding whether it suits you or not.


You should complain. I sold 30k RYM at $2-64. Influenced by Tainui and Ngai Tahu sell down.

[percy]

You should complain. I sold 30k RYM at $2-64. Influenced by Tainui and Ngai Tahu sell down.


Oh dear.!!
Trust you used the funds to buy XRO at $1.35,PEB at 19cents and ATM at 12cents????.!!! !!! lol.

[Tevita]

Oh dear.!!
Trust you used the funds to buy XRO at $1.35,PEB at 19cents and ATM at 12cents????.!!! !!! lol.



What`s that expression about rubbing salt into the wound. Or always a bridesmaid but seldom a bride (except under Sharia Law)

[percy]

What`s that expression about rubbing salt into the wound. Or always a bridesmaid but seldom a bride (except under Sharia Law)

I apologise.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[In4a$]

It's got to get to $3.60 again sometime, I will be selling a few when it does,

[iceman]

Hence thr quotation marks :D

Just noticed another Director selling at $3.50. Not much though. Hmmmm...

Not a Director.. GM sales.. Small amount and nothing should be read into that

[couta1]

Not a Director.. GM sales.. Small amount and nothing should be read into that
Exactly Iceman everyone has a need for some extra cash from time to time

[couta1]

no such thing as a safe share moosie.
True and that extends to all investments and also to life in general but invest and live we must.

[Beagle]

He also sold quite a few very late in 2013...just saying.

[winner69]

All part of Tristrans remuneration (being his LTI shares) so just cashing in his pay cheque ....just saying

[psychic]

Yeah, prob just needed some dosh at home cos new unit sales down eh Winner?

[winner69]

Yeah, prob just needed some dosh at home cos new unit sales down eh Winner?

......and maybe, just maybe, thought maybe they wont be as worth as much in a years time?

[couta1]

......and maybe, just maybe, thought maybe they wont be as worth as much in a years time?
Or they could be worth $4.20ish aye.

[Mista_Trix]

Or they could be worth $4.20ish aye.

Based on what calculations Couta.
Don't throw out numbers just for the sake of throwing out numbers, it confuses newbies that don't know any better about who's posts have no substantive value.

[winner69]

Based on what calculations Couta.
Don't throw out numbers just for the sake of throwing out numbers, it confuses newbies that don't know any better about who's posts have no substantive value.

without putting wordsin couta's mouth expected eps growth is 20% pa

Current price 350 plus 20% is 420 ....in a years time maybe if not earlier

[couta1]

without putting wordsin couta's mouth expected eps growth is 20% pa

Current price 350 plus 20% is 420 ....in a years time maybe if not earlier
Correct winner as long as they get their in house stuff sorted

[couta1]

Based on what calculations Couta.
Don't throw out numbers just for the sake of throwing out numbers, it confuses newbies that don't know any better about who's posts have no substantive value.
With 24 years experience in the industry and holding 140k shares I have put my money where my mouth is and don't just chuck out figures,please lose your attitude toward me I notice it coming out on various threads and its getting tiresome

[winner69]

Popped out for a coffee. Met

Newbie in the café

Me "How's things going Newbie?"

Newbie "Great mate, just bought some shares in Summerset"

Me "Good one Newbie, but why Summerset?"

Newbie "Some guy called couta said they were going to be $4.20 soon - that will be 20% up"

Me "well done Newbie. Enjoy your coffee"

Newbie "no probs mate - hey I feel lucky today so let me buy your latte"

[couta1]

Popped out for a coffee. Met

Newbie in the café

Me "How's things going Newbie?"

Newbie "Great mate, just bought some shares in Summerset"

Me "Good one Newbie, but why Summerset?"

Newbie "Some guy called couta said they were going to be $4.20 soon - that will be 20% up"

Me "well done Newbie. Enjoy your coffee"

Newbie "no probs mate - hey I feel lucky today so let me buy your latte"
Classic winner your on form today mate

[Mista_Trix]

With 24 years experience in the industry and holding 140k shares I have put my money where my mouth is and don't just chuck out figures,please lose your attitude toward me I notice it coming out on various threads and its getting tiresome

Winners post I respect as it has the workings attached, I would show yours the same if you'd added just a little more content and didn't show investing naivety in your posting history.

There are lurkers on here who do make decisions (why is beyond me) on people just throwing up numbers (sadly saw it on the DIL thread once the wheels started falling off the SP).
Tiresome is the 1,000+ posts that somehow give yours more credibility. If you're going to throw numbers around, just add a little 'why' and then we're all happy :) and can debate the merits of your workings.

[mis chief]

Originally Posted by couta1 With 24 years experience in the industry ...

Are you able to divulge which area, i.e. management/financial, you have had those 24 years of experience in?

[couta1]

Originally Posted by couta1 With 24 years experience in the industry ...

Are you able to divulge which area, i.e. management/financial, you have had those 24 years of experience in?
Not specifically as I do work in competing companies but some on this forum who have met me know and I trust them to keep it to themselves my wife also has a similar level of experience in a different area to me within the same sector some info is too sensitive to put on a public forum,cheers

[mis chief]

So, working in competing companies strongly suggests you are on the carer/nursing side of things. Just can't figure out why those who know you are more or less sworn to secrecy though. I know a few folk who work in the carer/nurse area in various companies, and it seems to be a case of as long as they turn up, do their job, their various employers don't mind what they do inbetween times.
Cheers.

[Ginger_steps_]

Winners post I respect as it has the workings attached, I would show yours the same if you'd added just a little more content and didn't show investing naivety in your posting history.

There are lurkers on here who do make decisions (why is beyond me) on people just throwing up numbers (sadly saw it on the DIL thread once the wheels started falling off the SP).
Tiresome is the 1,000+ posts that somehow give yours more credibility. If you're going to throw numbers around, just add a little 'why' and then we're all happy :) and can debate the merits of your workings.

People have tried many times to get some sort of evidential backing out of Couta - to date not a single bit of value has been provided by him. He has pointed out however that he doesn't "crunch numbers" - so while Winner69's workings are a plausible way to get to a $4.20 value - i don't think Couta would have figured it that way. Commenting on price movements is his game - newbies have been warned a few times now...

[Goldstein]

Nice little rise. Hopefully we can end the day on a high.

[couta1]

People have tried many times to get some sort of evidential backing out of Couta - to date not a single bit of value has been provided by him. He has pointed out however that he doesn't "crunch numbers" - so while Winner69's workings are a plausible way to get to a $4.20 value - i don't think Couta would have figured it that way. Commenting on price movements is his game - newbies have been warned a few times now...
I see the lynch mob has returned while I was at work back on your perch Ginger steps you only seem to comment when putting the boot in if you haven't got something constructive to say then don't keep harping on the same tune we have heard the above story before. Why would I put info on here that could put my income at risk? People that have met me from this forum know who I am and some know what I do that's good enough for me. Oh and by the way $3.50 x 20% = $4.20 is not really number crunching just mathematics 101. Anyway I've no need to justify myself except to say that others have already posted on the forum and behind the scenes that they enjoy my contribution and that's good enough for me and I think a total of 48 years combined experience my wife and I have had in this sector speaks for itself.

[Goldstein]

A forum works best if it is open, friendly and inclusive. Be careful about appointing yourself a policeman.

I reckon this is one of the best forums around for share trading and investing. I've leant a lot, and really laughed out loud at some posts. I enjoy the richness and honesty of the threads. It's not just a ramper's paradise that some forums are.

Couta1 certainly does add value and richness IMO.

[Beagle]

I agree with Goldstein's comment above. I met Couta last week in Wellington at the SUM AGM and he's the real deal with heaps of hands on experience in the sector as well as being a bloody good bloke. He's clearly stated he can't go "on the record" on here about what he does in the sector and people should just accept that and move on. He's made some investing mistakes and learned from them, (heck we've all been there and done that). One of two people acting as little more than critics and adding nothing constructive to the forum or discussion need to get over themselves and take their hand off it.

[Joshuatree]

Newbie got out of the Psych ward for the day. Jeez i hope you're not recommending investments to your patients couta.:cool:

[Goldstein]

Amazing the way the trading range has jumped. Volumes not massive, but certainly something. Nicely forecast Moosie.

[couta1]

Cheers GS. RYM is driving MET and SUM in some part imho. Watching sector closely... ;)

Disc - still holding tight
Are you trading a parcel Moosie or longer term view?

[mis chief]

Well I’ll be damned. I’m back in my nice, quiet padded room, this time with a mate. He tells me he’s been truck driving for 48 years, so I can ask him anything about MFT, and he’ll be able to advise me, how lucky can I get? He’s even going to teach me how to drive his truck when we get out. But he told me to keep his history to myself, can’t figure out why yet, maybe I should be very cautious, perhaps he’s armed and dangerous. But he reckons I shouldn’tworry about all the fangs and claws or lynch mobs or police (please, not the police, I’m trying to be good and honest, honest I am). He says it’s just human nature at it’s worst.

I studied so hard to see what advice I could glean so I could make some informed decisions for investing, but I’m still no further ahead. I guess I might be safer doing more of my own research elsewhere, reading everything I can lay my chained hands on, but not trusting all I read, but relying on myself instead of being a follower, and working out my own sensible strategies. Or I could just draw squiggles on the padding in here, to take my mind off all the noise.

Oh well, I like a bit of SUM anyway, 1 + 1 = 3. The TSB bank has raised some deposit rates today, so that should be good for oldies like me, right?

As Teuila Blakely said, in regard to her ‘great sex tape scandal’ “there were more important things in the world and people were becoming obsessed with the wrong things”. And she also said “As it is we alone, in any given situation, that have to live with our choices and consequences”.

And now I read that ‘A Labour-Greens alliance has overtaken National in the polls for the first time, in the wake of dramas surrounding Justice Minister Judith Collins and Maurice Williamson.’ Good grief, it’s enough to make an inmate want to act up again, to ensure he stays put. What’s that quote, ‘lies, damned lies’? Or how about this ‘Auckland needs to increase its city limits by 22 percent if it is to meet its potential as a global city.’ All about number crunching, really, you get what the number crunchers want you to get. Go safe out there!

Just thought that visiting here would be my fast track to the rich list. I should apologise for not adding anything enlightening to the thread, but I don’t feel like doing that, seeing it’s supposed to be such an open and friendly place. I like friends.

[couta1]

Mis chief can I borrow some of that stuff your on to take to the pysch unit please its looks like it works far better than the opiates that are normally dished out,cheers:cool:

[couta1]

The Moose Fund has now exited for a 1.5% gain. Upper bollinger band hit and trading looking thin so exited with profits.
Moosie I have also just sold down 25k shares to rebalance my portfolio a bit,also used the upper bollinger band indicator:cool:

[Mista_Trix]

The Moose Fund has now exited for a 1.5% gain. Upper bollinger band hit and trading looking thin so exited with profits.

A penny for your thoughts on RSI and MACD...?

[Beagle]

After the meeting and discussion with Julian Cook I have done some work on where I see the profit for the current year.
Based on the projected increase in build rate and some increase in the development margin I see EPS growth of 25-30% this year and next and my best guess is this sort of growth rate is sustainable for a few years more before reducing into the lower twenty percent range.
I estimate underlying profit of $28m for 2014 for EPS of 13 cents per share. This puts SUM on a current year PE of 27 which seems quite resonable when they're growing at the same rate...i.e. a PEG ratio of 1 based on current years earnings.
Unlike the movement in the last year (SP only up 10% when underlying earnings increased 46%) I see no reason why the circa 27% growth in EPS shouldn't translate to an equilivent increase in SP, so my price target for next years AGM is $4.50.

I am really struggling to find value elsewhere that's going to show consistent growth so I rebalanced back up into this company today.

[Joshuatree]

Thanks for sharing your number crunch Roger and thoughts Agree re hard finding value in the quality stocks atm.

[couta1]

After the meeting and discussion with Julian Cook I have done some work on where I see the profit for the current year.
Based on the projected increase in build rate and some increase in the development margin I see EPS growth of 25-30% this year and next and my best guess is this sort of growth rate is sustainable for a few years more before reducing into the lower twenty percent range.
I estimate underlying profit of $28m for 2014 for EPS of 13 cents per share. This puts SUM on a current year PE of 27 which seems quite resonable when they're growing at the same rate...i.e. a PEG ratio of 1 based on current years earnings.
Unlike the movement in the last year (SP only up 10% when underlying earnings increased 46%) I see no reason why the circa 27% growth in EPS shouldn't translate to an equilivent increase in SP, so my price target for next years AGM is $4.50.
:cool:
I am really struggling to find value elsewhere that's going to show consistent growth so I rebalanced back up into this company today.
Good on ya mate looks like were rebalancing in different directions you probably bought some of my shares at $3.54 I did pick up quite a few more HNZ though so going in the same direction there I'm going to play with Ryman with the balance of funds, look forward to next years AGM will take you for a blast in the big block before the bar that is

[iceman]

After the meeting and discussion with Julian Cook I have done some work on where I see the profit for the current year.
Based on the projected increase in build rate and some increase in the development margin I see EPS growth of 25-30% this year and next and my best guess is this sort of growth rate is sustainable for a few years more before reducing into the lower twenty percent range.
I estimate underlying profit of $28m for 2014 for EPS of 13 cents per share. This puts SUM on a current year PE of 27 which seems quite resonable when they're growing at the same rate...i.e. a PEG ratio of 1 based on current years earnings.
Unlike the movement in the last year (SP only up 10% when underlying earnings increased 46%) I see no reason why the circa 27% growth in EPS shouldn't translate to an equilivent increase in SP, so my price target for next years AGM is $4.50.

I am really struggling to find value elsewhere that's going to show consistent growth so I rebalanced back up into this company today.

Thanks Roger. I have been doing same following the AGM.
I ended up with an underlying profit prediction of $ 28.5M for 2014 and $ 36.6M for 2015, up from $ 22m in 2013. There appears to be little reason why the SP shouldn't follow unless the market will rate it with a lower PE than it currently does.
Based on the dividend guidelines of 30-50% of underlying profit, we should see divies increased by 25-30% in each of the next few years.
The number I am struggling with is the development margin but I tried to work on the assumption it would grow to 13% in 2014 and 15% in 2015. But a bit of a stab in the dark that one !

[Beagle]

Thanks guys...yeah I was feeling a bit light on the stock at the AGM and yes Couta, mate we should really have traded those between us off market LOL. BIG BLOCK here we come, you're on !

Hey Iceman, Mate we're on the same page, great minds think alike :) Its a fairly young company and I think as time goes on the institutions and the market in general will become more comfortable with its growth track record and if anything its possible given the relative underperformance of the SP over the last year could reverse itself. (Its pretty bizarre that a stock growing EPS at 46% last year lead to a SP increase of only 10%) so I forsee the potential for a slight PE expansion as the company builds its credibility over the next few years.

Newguy, you couldn't just edit the last bit of that sentence could you...I feel bad enough already LOL.

[blocker3]

My rationale is that SUM will one day be as big and profitable as RYM is now. When it is, its market cap should also roughly equal RYM's current cap (all other things being equal). The question, then, is how long will this take and what are the corresponding capital gains to be had?

According to my back of the envelope, SUM will get there in about 6 to 7 years and its SP will be $20. Worth holding on for IMHO!


I can not disagree with your post Newguy.At the end of the day,I would have to concur with your thoughts.

Over that last 2 years Summerset has had a very smooth 120 day MA uptrend. Smooth as you can get which is really good. Im a Summerset holder .
Cheers Blocker

[Goldstein]

Ginger_steps,
I'm not going to go through and look at all of Couta1's posts. But off the top of my head (from this thread)
(i) he went to SUM's AGM and reported back
(ii) he contacted his sources about the Q1 sales figures recently and again reported back

IMHO, all information is good information - it's up to each investor to decide how they use that information. Couta1 does not hide his mistakes, so he is not a threat to newbies.

I really don't want to get into this anymore on the forum. You are showing just how elitist you are with your comment about temp nursing. Feel free to vent your frustration to me in a PM.

[777]

Ginger-steps butt out. You a Johnny-come-lately twerp.

[couta1]

Thanks Goldstein and others I'm not going to bother answering this person let others judge the tone of his posts for themselves we have our very own judge Judy right here on the forum who demands info and hands down his sentence to those that don't comply, very sad IMO

[Beagle]

PM sent to ginger steps..

[Zouga]

I am the newest of newbies and I find every post in this forum interesting and useful as I navigate the intricacies of both technical analysis and fundamental analysis . I have bought SUM and think I will hold and buy more. Thank you Couta and others for your comments which have certainly added richness to my learning experience.

[ratkin]

Have reported gingers last post. Im suprised he hasnt been removed already tbh, personnal attacks really not on

[blocker3]

Looks like Vince the mediator will arrive on the scene and dish out a Yellow or Red card.

And most probably Ginger steps last post will be deleated by the morning .
So we can all be positive again

All sleep well

[iceman]

Looks like Vince the mediator will arrive on the scene and dish out a Yellow or Red card.

And most probably Ginger steps last post will be deleated by the morning .
So we can all be positive again

All sleep well

I sincerely hope so. He is not a productive poster, but a TROLL who seems to thrive on personally attacking others. I have met both couta1 and Roger personally and they are both bloody good guys. I look forward to meeting them both again.

[Joshuatree]

Ginger does get overexcited i agree. We have to accept the multitude of differences in the way we all research , discuss , dribble criticise , agree disagree etc etc about investing our hard earned for future gains and income. However i have an issue with the way you, couta, cultivate, foster your position in the retirement industry as some consultant, advisor or high up in the inner workings of management with deep knowledge or inside knowledge of the retirement villages and can't tell us due to sensitivity issues etc. I have utmost respect for anyone who works in the front line esp with dementia and psych patients so why oh why do you have to be deceptive and disingenuous about this couta. Come clean ,then keep posting.

[winner69]

Legendary investor Peter Lynch said if you love the store you'll love the stock

Insights from the front line are often more valuable then talking to the head honchos - like what is really going on v the rose tinted view of the big boss who often has his own agenda to push etc etc

We should cherish couta's presence. Maybe we don't ask the right questions of him or maybe we should ask in a different way

Be good if couta worked in the construction part of the business and gave us insights into how the internalisation program was working. Maybe he does?

And by the way couta you were going to see what brand of taps etc were used .....are they Methven ones or not

[blocker3]

I see you were up earlier than me at 03:23 winner69. I didnt sleep well as its 04:32. Good to see that the post is gone and we can positivly move on.
Cheers

[percy]

I am sorry everyone,but could you please keep the slanging match posts to day light hours.
I need to get my beauty sleep.

[couta1]

Hey couta, can you tell me the wages nurses/orderlies earn at SUM workplaces? PM if you don't want to post here, always been interested.
No orderlies in retirement sector but Nurse hourly rates range from $22 to $28 per hour depending on experience. Caregivers get between $14.50 and $17.50 per hour depending on qualifications

[blocker3]

I am sorry everyone,but could you please keep the slanging match posts to day light hours.
I need to get my beauty sleep.

LMAO

Got a nap back in between 0500-0600
Cheers

[Goldstein]

Couta1, you don't have to justify yourself. It is not worth it to put your livelihood at risk.

IMHO everybody should drop this. We're just feeding the trolls now.

[couta1]

Couta1, you don't have to justify yourself. It is not worth it to put your livelihood at risk.

IMHO everybody should drop this. We're just feeding the trolls now.
Cheers Goldstein Ive gone beyond normal measure of duty here but that's it, one troll has had their posts deleted so all good let's get back to the business of a great company and its future

[Goldstein]

Skid posted this on the XRO thread:
http://money.cnn.com/2014/05/08/inve...ets/index.html

But equally it could be a positive for this thread.

[Mista_Trix]

... ....

MT, RSI isn't overbought yet and MACD says up she goes but these are much slower indicators than fast stochastic, which is overbought. Combined with a bb hit and RYM and MET losing steam this arvo I have cut and run. We shall see if I'm right later :)

Cheers for this, I don't tend to watch fast stochastic, as it seems too be too responsive for my time frames. Perhaps I'll start watching it as an indicator and see how it lines up.
What are your short term tools of preference?

:)

[blocker3]

Couta1, you don't have to justify yourself. It is not worth it to put your livelihood at risk.

IMHO everybody should drop this. We're just feeding the trolls now.

I agree. Last suggestion is that couta1 edit his post above (2033) to be positive

Now the market is about to open and lets talk about a share called Summerset
Cheers

[couta1]

I agree. Last suggestion is that couta1 edit his post above (2033) to be positive

Now the market is about to open and lets talk about a share called Summerset
Cheers
Have deleted that post blocker as there been so many positive rep comments and pm s we can't let one nasty person ruin the party aye

[blocker3]

Have deleted that post blocker as there been so many positive rep comments and pm s we can't let one nasty person ruin the party aye

Good stuff Couta1.

We are a team going forward together in a great company called Summerset.

That if we hold on to shares for the long term it will make us all a $.
Cheers

[Beagle]

Mortgage rules may go by the end of the year :)

http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/mortgage-rules-may-go-end-year-5967224

I couldn't resist a bit of blue sky dreaming this morning...what if SUM could grow their underlying earnings at 25% per annum on average over the next seven years, where would the stock price be ?
Almost exactly where it is now is the answer....after the 5 for 1 split :D

[Beagle]

Its clear with the benifet of more time they have had some effect on the bottom end of the market turmeric. Yesterday's announcement that Auckland City Council will fast track approval for another 18,000 homes shows they are starting to realise the real issue is housing supply and that there's more than one way to skin a cat :)
I also think the Reserve Bank have realised their other blunt instrument, (raising the cash rate twice in quick sucession), has already had an even bigger effect.
Talk that they are considering intervening in the forex market may indicate they are looking at a more balanced approach towards executing their mandate...but I'd like to see their mandate changed, their myopic fixation with taming inflation and to heck with any other considerations is such at outdated and inappropriate approach IMHO...but that's probably good conversation fodder for a different thread.

[Beagle]

NewGuy - There will be a lot of drinking at the pub after the AGM when that happens :D

[couta1]

Hey guys have deleted my above post outlining my and my wife's sector involvement after receiving comments from many behind the scenes it was too much info for a public forum like this and the associated risks with doing this given my situation . I guess you can be too honest sometimes,cheers couta

[couta1]

Its ok mate. We all remember what you posted. It said "I'm a cabaret dancer/entertainer specialising in retirement village gigs. The old birds sometimes get a bit frisky, but someone's gotta do it!"

Yikes :cool: Sometimes suffering from Dementia does have its advantages aye

[Mista_Trix]

Sometimes suffering from Dementia does have its advantages aye

[NewGuy] She was eighty-four.
[Couta1] Eh. I've had older.

(If you take offence, please go and watch 'The Grand Budapest Hotel' immediately.)

[couta1]

[NewGuy] She was eighty-four.
[Couta1] Eh. I've had older.

(If you take offence, please go and watch 'The Grand Budapest Hotel' immediately.)
Actually the oldest I've dealt with is 107 yrs old but fortunately I didn't have to deal with that area of the body:scared:

[Joshuatree]

Ive been told there are Diversion therapists in the dementia ward but they seem spread far and thin, i may have sighted one briefly once . With you working in these wards couta can you share re the Diversion therapist to patient ratio?. I find that some general staff naturally develop this skill ; others don't. thanks

[couta1]

Ive been told there are Diversion therapists in the dementia ward but they seem spread far and thin, i may have sighted one briefly once . With you working in these wards couta can you share re the Diversion therapist to patient ratio?. I find that some general staff naturally develop this skill ; others don't. thanks
JT at this point in time there is no ratio because there is no contractual requirement for dementia wards or in fact any part of the care centre to have trained Diversional therapists only that there must be Activities staff,these are trained in house. You are correct in saying that some general staff naturally develop this skill and in fact a lot of them are far better than the trained Diversional therapists are performing the same role.

[Goldstein]

$6.6m went through on market. I wonder if it is NZ Super again?

[winner69]

Milford selling some of Her Majesty's shares

Not many disclosed, probably just a bit of fine tuning of the portfolio

They will need to buy back next week at a higher price eh couta

[blocker3]

Has anyone noticed also that Summerset in the last month generally has make a 1c or 2c gain slowly and surely per day on average which makes the 200Ma a very straight line as you can get, upwards. ?

[Beagle]

Well I've proved working the 100 day moving average signals doesn't work as a stratagy so the 200 day m.a. is clearly the one to use :)

[blocker3]

Well I've proved working the 100 day moving average signals doesn't work as a stratagy so the 200 day m.a. is clearly the one to use :)

Yes I agree Roger.I find it an excellent trend line also in conjuction with the 50 day MA on the same chart.

[winner69]

A well reasoned explanation MAC. No doubt where you gone will be rewarding

You mention wage inflation. No doubt a factor impacting the future.

It have a greater impact on SUM then RYM in the context of overall performance. The slide in RYM last presentation titled Large Operators bought home to me the relative low number of care beds v vilage units they have (esp relative to RYM). I think I have heard SUM say they want to have a greater number of care beds.

Pressure on profitability on 2 fronts?

[noodles]

I’ve diversified and split into two stocks which I believe should provide the same probably better returns on an 18 month horizon.

You tease! Please tell

[blocker3]

You tease! Please tell

MAC have you followed Norah Barlow to OZ as she is now a Non-Executive Director with INA?

[Joshuatree]

Source NZX 1 year S/price performance

MET 31.85%

RYM 28.46%

SUM 17.73%

[blocker3]

I am confused

Has Milford Asset Management Limited just disclosed that they have sold or purchased shares?. The ASB statement is confusing big time.

From what I make of it there is a shuffle around and overall the classes are up.

Has anyone got clear information ?

Cheers

[blocker3]

they have sold some

Cheers Snapiti

[Harvey Specter]

I am confused

Has Milford Asset Management Limited just disclosed that they have sold or purchased shares?. The ASB statement is confusing big time.

From what I make of it there is a shuffle around and overall the classes are up.

Has anyone got clear information ?They bought and sold some but overall, it is a sale. They actually list the transactions on page 2: https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/194454.pdf

[Beagle]

Hmmm, sold over two million shares, the last bunch of 800,000 at $3.44. That's more than fine tuning of a portfolio, it appears they're serious sellers.

[stoploss]

Hmmm, sold over two million shares, the last bunch of 800,000 at $3.44. That's more than fine tuning of a portfolio, it appears they're serious sellers.

Maybe as T-L , Couta and yourself pointed out the lack of forward guidance spooked them a bit . Fund managers like to ask the questions and get the answers...getting fobbed off by a director to a straight question is not a good look ......

[Beagle]

Maybe as T-L , Couta and yourself pointed out the lack of forward guidance spooked them a bit . Fund managers like to ask the questions and get the answers...getting fobbed off by a director to a straight question is not a good look ......
I think it may well be exactly that.
Well...since 8 May they've sold the bulk of that two million shares, (AGM was 30 April). On an objective basis that's about the right amount of time after the AGM for them as an investment house to digest the information forthcoming in the AGM and take a new view on SUM's future prospects. To be honest, I really rate Milford so I'm wondering what they're perceiving about the future that some of us arn't ? Anyone got any fresh sharebroker research they're happy to share ? Please PM me if you want to keep it in confidence.

[couta1]

I think it may well be exactly that.
Well...since 8 May they've sold the bulk of that two million shares, (AGM was 30 April). On an objective basis that's about the right amount of time after the AGM for them as an investment house to digest the information forthcoming in the AGM and take a new view on SUM's future prospects. To be honest, I really rate Milford so I'm wondering what they're perceiving about the future that some of us arn't ? Anyone got any fresh sharebroker research they're happy to share ? Please PM me if you want to keep it in confidence. Don't panic Roger me old mate they still have over 12 million shares but Sum need to up their game in a few areas this year IMO if they are to grow at the rate we all hope for.

[Beagle]

Don't panic Roger me old mate they still have over 12 million shares but Sum need to up their game in a few areas this year IMO if they are to grow at the rate we all hope for.

Gidday mate. That worries me a bit too be honest as its clear they're keen to reduce their holding and its fairly substaintial. OTOH the N.Z. super fund has been been buying in so maybe they'll balance each other out ;)

[BlackPeter]

thought that somebody must have purchased all these shares Milford disposed of: Fisher Funds just disclosed that they now hold above 5% (i.e. start of a substantial shareholding). I guess time will tell who made the better deal (Milford or Fisher Funds), I am still holding.

[winner69]

A bit of newguy's work?

Maybe not

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11264161

[percy]

A bit of newguy's work?

Maybe not

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11264161

As always winner69 thank you for the link.
I think over the next few years we will see "new" models of housing and retirement type communities/villages for our aging population.It is interesting to note Norah Barlow has joined the board of INA in Australia, whose approach/solutions are some what different to what New Zealanders are used to.They are buying up holiday /caravan Parks and are converting them to Lifestyle Parks,while retaining a lot of units for holiday use,spare land is being used to house retirees in mobil home units.These are cheaper and built a lot faster than permant buildings.In most cases you can own these units [and can sell them] and pay rent on the land only.They are working with local authorities to make sure residents in their villages receive all the services they are entitled to receive ,rather than going into "total care."
On a recent visit to Nelson I noticed a lot of permanent residents living at Tahunanui Beach Holiday Park.They had a large section of the Park to themselves.It appears to work well.Here residents own their own homes/units and appear to just pay rent.
I guess these units sell for about $75,000 to $130,000,so they are a lot cheaper than the $600,000 to $1mil units referred to in your article.
INA are looking to sell some of their "usual" retirement villages,to "recycle" the money into more profitable "Lifestyle Parks."
So I think we will see a great deal of choice in future for our rapidly growing aging population.People with modest capital will not miss out.

[macduffy]

That's interesting, percy, and no doubt such an arrangement will suit a lot of people.

But without the "care" facilities, hospital, dementia unit etc that form part of the better villages, are they anything more than a step along the way for the increasing number of older folk who need, or will need these services?

[percy]

That's interesting, percy, and no doubt such an arrangement will suit a lot of people.

But without the "care" facilities, hospital, dementia unit etc that form part of the better villages, are they anything more than a step along the way for the increasing number of older folk who need, or will need these services?

I think you will see more care facilities,hospital,dementia unites built.So I take it you stay as long as you can in your "Lifestyle Park" until you need to move into "total care ". INA refer to "clusters" where they have Lifestyle Parks,retirement villages near each other.ie Sydney cluster,Newcastle cluster,Northcoast cluster. So you would move from Lifestyle to "total care",not far from where you have been living.You would sell your unit.How far your money would go in providing total care I do not know.

[macduffy]

Thanks, percy. I was really thinking of the Tahuna Park Holiday Park scenario, rather than the planned clusters.

Cheers

[Beagle]

An awful lot of long term speculation in that report. Fact is home ownership is strong for over 50's and the average age of people moving into retirement villages is 78, (I asked julian Cook this question myself so that's straight from the horses mouth), so the pipeline for new entrants for the next 30 years looks good, which frankly is all I'm concerned with as odds are I won't be here much longer than that.
I also believe as does he that over time the Auckland housing supply issues will sort themselves out, e.g. I was driving down past Ardmore airfield the other day and there's tens of thousands of acres of flat land around there that could easily be re-zoned residential. Its all about Auckland city council getting off their lazy butts and allowing more land for development.

[Bjauck]

That's interesting, percy, and no doubt such an arrangement will suit a lot of people.

But without the "care" facilities, hospital, dementia unit etc that form part of the better villages, are they anything more than a step along the way for the increasing number of older folk who need, or will need these services?
I do not think that if you have a licence to occupy for one of the retirement units in a Summerset village, for example, that it guarantees a place in the hospital or rest home block. You will still be subject to waiting lists. While you may well be given preference in the waiting list, when your time comes to shift into a nursing home, it is normally an urgent situation and so you may well have to go elsewhere. Moving into a rest home (as opposed to private hospital) may not have the same amount of urgency so if you are "lucky" if you may be able to wait your turn on the list.. So your licence to occupy even in a fully equipped village may still be just a stepping stone.

[iceman]

Not my work winner, and disagree with most of the stuff that I skimmed.

As many others have said, the decision to enter a village is not motivated by financial gain, it is purely peace of mind. This will not change, and hence neither will the future demand for villages.

The worst that I can see happening (from the village's pov) is that the DMF %s reduce in the wake of greater competition. Can't see the business models really changing though.

I think the most interesting part of the article was the fact that this guy says he intends to buy a unit in a retirement village when his time comes !

[Beagle]

I think the most interesting part of the article was the fact that this guy says he intends to buy a unit in a retirement village when his time comes !

Yes, says it all really mate. Obviously this guy was commissioned by someone to write this report, (people generally don't investigate these matters and write these sorts of reports unless its part of a University thesis or they're paid well, so the fact that's he's planning on moving into one himself renders the report as spurious crystal ball gazing and nothing more. He convieniently overlooks the fact that many young people who don't own homes today stand to inherit significant wealth from the baby boomer population in due course. Whoever paid this guy to write this speculative report wasted their money in my opinion.

[Harvey Specter]

As many others have said, the decision to enter a village is not motivated by financial gain, it is purely peace of mind. This will not change, and hence neither will the future demand for villages.Exactly.


I think the most interesting part of the article was the fact that this guy says he intends to buy a unit in a retirement village when his time comes !Which proves the point.


haha, pretty much says it all iceman!Exactly

These villages are only catering for about 10% of the aged. No issues here.

[Goldstein]

IMO the exact opposite of what the article inferring is already happening. People heading towards retirement are changing what they are doing with their capital. Previously it used to be they would leave it to the next generation. However, the current generation are so time-poor these days that the elderly have little option but to spend that capital on their retirement and be self-sufficient. This will accelerate as less capital is left to the younger generations..

The upshot is there will be an increasing demand across all retirement living options, and more capital being disposed of by retirees.

[iceman]

Congratulations to Norah Barlow. Well done.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11265796

[couta1]

Summerset due to complete the first 22 new villas at the Trentham site in September and most have been sold already,Q2 sales should be okay but I'm really looking forward to Q3:cool:

[Yoda]

Im very much a novice, but i see a wedge formation in the SP over the last 6 months with 3 equal peaks and rising lows. Maybe a higher rise soon? Opinions....

[couta1]

I think a rise is imminent because underlying profits will soon rise too. However, please feel free to quote vague/inconclusive chart patterns as additional reasons for a potential move up :p
Yep pretty simple really more sales equals more profits equals rising share price no charting skills needed:cool:

[Yoda]

Yea pretty inconclusive, but i read it somewhere.haha, i wish i had put all my money in here instead of spreading it around, .i really appreciate this site, its entertaining reading.!

[vorno]

Im very much a novice, but i see a wedge formation in the SP over the last 6 months with 3 equal peaks and rising lows. Maybe a higher rise soon? Opinions....

My guess is short term drop to 3.40 then rise to 3.60 and remain semi-stable for 2-3months