SUM - Summerset Group [Archive] - Page 32

Beagle

04-05-2019, 11:23 AM

Whatever slows down the sales of units in SUM will do the same for RYM, I know there's talk about RYM being cream of the crop etc. it still comes down to the growth rate. If SUM have an annual growth rate better than RYM it is inevitable that SUM SP will creep up an close the gap or pass RYM. However it has been suggested that SUM will be getting to the average 15%pa as is what RYM aims for, in that case Couta1's theory may stand the test of time. Regardless SUM, OCA and RYM are all winners for shareholders in the long term:)

Client of mine is doing a development in Auckland and Bayley's have been appointed. Had a good chat with John Bayley the owner yesterday and without any prompting or question from me he brought up the national days to settle matter which has jumped quite considerably, (so Julian is a straight shooter as I have come to know he is). Anyone who thinks this will not affect RYM is deluding themselves or more likely hasn't thought it through. RYM also have plenty of exposure to the Australian property market which really is tanking. Discussed quite a few other things with him. Interest rates are at unprecedented lows that neither I or he has ever seen before as are capitalisation rates for industrial property. Many rental properties around N.Z. with appropriate gearing and sub 4% interest rates are now cash flow positive and where are all the 60,000 new immigrants arriving each year going to live ? N.Z. and Australian residential property dynamics are quite different.
I think all the "text book" experts or here and the other forum predicting a property crash in N.Z. are simply fearmongering with absolutely no date to support their viewpoint and little understanding of the basic laws of supply and demand. The real experts I talk to see things quite differently.

artemis

04-05-2019, 12:03 PM

Beagle

04-05-2019, 12:16 PM

April data about to be released should shed some light on things. It was a pleasure catching up with you and having a chat this week :)

winner69

04-05-2019, 01:02 PM

REINZ data shows national days to sell 31 March 2019 at 36 (42 Auckland), compared to a year ago at 34 (37 Auckland). Seems to be a February upward spike though. Does not seem dramatic enough to seriously impact village sales.

Auckland new listings said by some to be easing, by others Auckland becoming a buyers market. Confusing....

Julian using a seasonal spike as an excuse for poor sales I still reckon

Below REINZ charts days to sell for Auckland and Canterbury.

Even though the number of days to sell has been trending up ever so slowly over the last 5 year nothing unusual has happened lately (like a shock or anything) to use longer duration as an excuse for poor sales in Auckland and Christchurch

We probably see what we want to see ....but whatever SUM will increase its Book Value by 18% this year and that should see a ahare price of $6.20 plus or minus what the market rerates it by (continuing the rerating down or getting excited and rerating up)

BlackPeter

04-05-2019, 05:30 PM

:D:ohmy::crying:
at least we will be experts regarding retirement villages
although of course the best investment may not be the best residence in fact they just could be negatively correlated!

Interesting question. Given that this is a long game and word of mouth and personal recommendations are some of the most important marketing measures to bring new customers into the villages would I assume that quality of the product and economic success (as well for shareholders) is highly correlated.

I don't think most of their customers worry too much whether their DMF is 20%, 30% or even a bit more of their original capital - hey, it won't hurt them, but they clearly will care if the care they receive is substandard.

Obviously - their need to be fair and clearly communicated rules around the situation that a client wants or needs to move out before departing from this planet.

If the latter is a given, i think the best provider from a clients (nota bene: I said client, not the clients heirs ;) perspective will have as well the happiest shareholders.

iceman

05-05-2019, 12:45 PM

artemis

05-05-2019, 01:47 PM

Interesting reading about the fast growth in retirement villages here in the Nelson-Tasman region where both Summerset, Arvida and others are building large new villages https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/112340330/retirement-villages-on-rise-in-nelson-region-with-1000-extra-units-planned

In this article, Mr Collyns says ...

"... I think there's a bit of a moral responsibility to recognise we do have to address people who don't have much money and how we can make sure they can live in a village."

What exactly is this moral responsibility? Is it perhaps similar to Minister Tracey Martin suggesting last year that village operators could be required to provide state housing for seniors? No mention of Housing NZ or other social housing providers paying or building. She said this -

"Those are the conversations I'm having with my Cabinet colleagues," she said. "If we can say to a housing developer: 'You must have 40 per cent of affordable housing when you're building separate housing', why are we not having the same conversations with retirement village developers? So, it's sort of like State housing for our seniors, I suppose, but inside an environment that they should be able to go inside with their peers."

minimoke

05-05-2019, 03:13 PM

What exactly is this moral responsibility? There is none at all.

Retirement villages are the reward old folk get for working hard and investing so they have sufficient capital to buy into one of these place when they are ready.

If an aged person cant afford a roof over their head after retirement then that, in the first instance is their responsibility, secondly it becomes the families responsibility. And if those options fail then it is central governments responsibility to look after the vulnerable. That does not mean they get placed in a s****y retirement village - unless the government want the govt (you and me) to pay for a villa.

macduffy

05-05-2019, 03:43 PM

Was Mr Collyns talking about the moral responsibility of society generally - and perhaps giving a subtle reminder to government re funding?

Beagle

05-05-2019, 04:07 PM

Maybe SUM could start renting out some of their apartments they are struggling to sell and the Government could foot some of the bill by paying an accommodation supplement to people's super ?

winner69

05-05-2019, 07:43 PM

Increase in Operating Cash Flow hasn't been much the last 2 years

Cash is king they say .... maybe this year will be different

percy

05-05-2019, 07:44 PM

I am sure retirement village residents, who paid big money for their units, would just love having a wide diversity of tenants living alongside of them,funded by the Govt..lol.
"No we did not pay $750,000 for our unit."
"We can't afford to pay rent,so the Govt pays."
"Don't know how much it costs the Govt,but we think we should have been given a five bedroom unit ,so the grand children could live with us."
"Bit crowded with five in the spare bedroom,and three in the longe".

Baa_Baa

05-05-2019, 07:55 PM

Increase in Operating Cash Flow hasn't been much the last 2 years

Cash is king they say .... maybe this year will be different

It's probably too early to say, but whatever, SUM has some lovely chart action going on, bouncing off the 2016 highs and 2018 consolidations before its big run up through June-Oct 2018. Actually, it's definitely too early to say technically, being so far below it's MA's and downtrend lines, but a punter who believes in the FA might see this as the buying opportunity.

Value investing is so scary, bascially defying the golden rules of never buying a downtrend, value investors only ever buy down trends! True contrarians, sticking their convictions up the market, good on them.

winner69

06-05-2019, 08:41 AM

It's probably too early to say, but whatever, SUM has some lovely chart action going on, bouncing off the 2016 highs and 2018 consolidations before its big run up through June-Oct 2018. Actually, it's definitely too early to say technically, being so far below it's MA's and downtrend lines, but a punter who believes in the FA might see this as the buying opportunity.

Value investing is so scary, bascially defying the golden rules of never buying a downtrend, value investors only ever buy down trends! True contrarians, sticking their convictions up the market, good on them.

Yep great buying opportunity at 576.....if only for no other reason than it’s current P/B multiple has never been lower (see my charts of other day)

Book Value likely to increase about 18% in F19 .....that’ll take share price to 670 odd and if rerated to up to a more realistic P/B of 1.5 that would take share price to 770 early next year.

Price you pay is 576 for 770 of value ...sounds fair enough

Pity Julian brought up that excuse of days to sell increasing market data) because that only caused all that uncertainty. He’s got to learn to be more careful what he says....but then he gave many the opportunity to capture that ‘value’ that’s there

Bjauck

07-05-2019, 10:34 AM

Maybe SUM could start renting out some of their apartments they are struggling to sell and the Government could foot some of the bill by paying an accommodation supplement to people's super ?
I think there is room for the retirement village operators to offer units for rental. There would be group of people who may not necessarily be able to afford, or perhaps want to make the outlay for an ora but who could pay rent out of retirement savings and the sale of a cheaper house.

These renters would be probably be long-term (comparatively) and trustworthy, and a large village would have the infrastructure to administer these tenanted properties.

At the bottom of the wealth league, there will always be a segment of retirees who have minimal assets and savings. Often, but not always, this is because off ill-health or misfortune, They should always be taken care of by the social welfare safety net.

mondograss

07-05-2019, 10:54 AM

I think there is room for the retirement village operators to offer units for rental. There would be group of people who may not necessarily be able to afford, or perhaps want to make the outlay for an ora but who could pay rent out of retirement savings and the sale of a cheaper house.

These renters would be probably be long-term (comparatively) and trustworthy, and a large village would have the infrastructure to administer these tenanted properties.

At the bottom of the wealth league, there will always be a segment of retirees who have minimal assets and savings. Often, but not always, this is because off ill-health or misfortune, They should always be taken care of by the social welfare safety net.

I guess you'd just work it that they pay a lower purchase for the ORA but a higher monthly fee. If it's a choice between that and having a unit empty for years, then yes I can see the argument being reasonably compelling. Time was that local councils had retirement units that they offered out to the low income community, but a lot have been sold off now (at least in Auckland, probably smaller provincial councils still do it).

artemis

07-05-2019, 02:43 PM

macduffy

07-05-2019, 03:44 PM

Ggcc

07-05-2019, 04:40 PM

Yes, it's a nice idea but I can't see the retirement village companies making such a drastic change to their business model. More likely, if sales slow is that development also slows and allows that big wave of retirees to catch up.
It won’t be a gentle wave it will be a tsunami. Lots of elderly will need to go to villages and in some cases the children will decide for them (in case they can’t make that choice properly for themselves). In the next 3-5 years we will see the onslaught

Bjauck

07-05-2019, 04:43 PM

I guess you'd just work it that they pay a lower purchase for the ORA but a higher monthly fee. If it's a choice between that and having a unit empty for years, then yes I can see the argument being reasonably compelling. Time was that local councils had retirement units that they offered out to the low income community, but a lot have been sold off now (at least in Auckland, probably smaller provincial councils still do it).
That would be a good compromise. I am not sure if they should take up the role of the provision of social retirement housing.

A hybrid Ora/lease arrangement could be the way to make a retirement village affordable or more appealing to a wider market. I think the retirement villages would be well placed to meet and surpass NZ’s rental housing obligations/regime.

minimoke

07-05-2019, 04:47 PM

artemis

08-05-2019, 07:48 AM

That would be a good compromise. I am not sure if they should take up the role of the provision of social retirement housing.

A hybrid Ora/lease arrangement could be the way to make a retirement village affordable or more appealing to a wider market. I think the retirement villages would be well placed to meet and surpass NZ’s rental housing obligations/regime.

I know a lot about rental housing in New Zealand, current and proposed rules. I would be alarmed if any company I owned shares in decided to enter that market. Check out the Residential Tenancies Act, Labour and Greens rental housing policies (and the current consultations under way), and try a sampling of the tens of thousands of Tenancy Tribunal cases every year. Almost all brought by landlords for rent arrears and damage.

Best for the villages to stick to their knitting and leave rentals to the ever shrinking pool of landlords, and the taxpayer.

As a general thing, I expect that those planning to buy into a retirement village will have homes at the more attractive end. Attractive to buyers, that is, because more likely to be standalone houses than say high rise studios. So most won't need a hybrid option, though their heirs might!

iceman

08-05-2019, 08:24 AM

I know a lot about rental housing in New Zealand, current and proposed rules. I would be alarmed if any company I owned shares in decided to enter that market. Check out the Residential Tenancies Act, Labour and Greens rental housing policies (and the current consultations under way), and try a sampling of the tens of thousands of Tenancy Tribunal cases every year. Almost all brought by landlords for rent arrears and damage.

Best for the villages to stick to their knitting and leave rentals to the ever shrinking pool of landlords, and the taxpayer.

As a general thing, I expect that those planning to buy into a retirement village will have homes at the more attractive end. Attractive to buyers, that is, because more likely to be standalone houses than say high rise studios. So most won't need a hybrid option, though their heirs might!

Well said artemis.

winner69

08-05-2019, 07:57 PM

Baa_Baa

08-05-2019, 08:47 PM

Good for Summerset I reckon .......as long as Julian stirs up his sales people and doesn’t accept that non existent longer days to sell as an excuse for the sales people to finalise sales.

For sure, didn't miss the elephant in the room, but an inadequate response to arresting the multiyear declining % of sales vs total product available and longer times to sell the ones that actually got sold. I wouldn't want to be the sales manager, I bet they're having a few sleepless nights trying to figure out how to reverse the trend without manipulating other things like slowing the builds, that's just fudging the numbers. I want to see them push on with the build programme and fix their sales performance.

Beagle

08-05-2019, 08:56 PM

Reviewing all the economic stuff that impacts the housing market and putting them all into a matrix and assessing what usually happens to the housing market when an indicator changes I reckon we could see the number of house sales over the next year increase by more than 10% and that prices on the average could will be 5% or more higher in a years time

Good for Summerset I reckon .......as long as Julian stirs up his sales people and doesn’t accept that non existent longer days to sell as an excuse for the sales people to finalise sales.

No argument from me :)

For sure, didn't miss the elephant in the room, but an inadequate response to arresting the multiyear declining % of sales vs total product available and longer times to sell the ones that actually got sold. I wouldn't want to be the sales manager, I bet they're having a few sleepless nights trying to figure out how to reverse the trend without manipulating other things like slowing the builds, that's just fudging the numbers. I want to see them push on with the build programme and fix their sales performance.

Rome wasn't built in a day. SUM's track record of profit growth speaks for itself.

Baa_Baa

08-05-2019, 09:04 PM

No argument from me :)

Rome wasn't built in a day. SUM's track record of profit growth speaks for itself.

I know you're not making excuses for the multiyear decline in sales performance and I think I understand your motivations for backing out to the macro metrics of 'record profit growth' (I share the motivation but not the response), but even you have alluded to/acknowledged the sales performance issue.

It is unavoidable, it is the elephant in the room with SUM. As a shareholder I'd prefer that they confronted that and shared a convincing plan to avoid a continuation of the sales under-performance. Without fudging the numbers by slowing development growth, just fix the root cause sales under-performance.

winner69

08-05-2019, 09:06 PM

For sure, didn't miss the elephant in the room, but an inadequate response to arresting the multiyear declining % of sales vs total product available and longer times to sell the ones that actually got sold. I wouldn't want to be the sales manager, I bet they're having a few sleepless nights trying to figure out how to reverse the trend without manipulating other things like slowing the builds, that's just fudging the numbers. I want to see them push on with the build programme and fix their sales performance.

They are doing mystery shopping to help sales along ....thats good

But maybe thats a sign that prospective buyers turn have reasons to turn cold on Summerset and Summerset are trying to find out.

Beagle

08-05-2019, 09:15 PM

I know you're not making excuses for the multiyear decline in sales performance and I think I understand your motivations for backing out to the macro metrics of 'record profit growth' (I share the motivation but not the response), but even you have alluded to/acknowledged the sales performance issue.

It is unavoidable, it is the elephant in the room with SUM. As a shareholder I'd prefer that they confronted that and shared a convincing plan to avoid a continuation of the sales under-performance. Without fudging the numbers by slowing development growth, just fix the root cause sales under-performance.

Over the last two years I have been bending Julian's ear a heck of a LOT about moving to fixed weekly fee's for life. I have followed him up in a very "dogged" way.
I gathered the sense that I might finally be getting through to him after following him up yet again about this matter last week....watch this space.
This won't be a panacea for all the reasons some of their units are slow sellers but it will help if they finally do this.

Baa_Baa

08-05-2019, 09:53 PM

Over the last two years I have been bending Julian's ear a heck of a LOT about moving to fixed weekly fee's for life. I have followed him up in a very "dogged" way.
I gathered the sense that I might finally be getting through to him after following him up yet again about this matter last week....watch this space.
This won't be a panacea for all the reasons some of their units are slow sellers but it will help if they finally do this.

There's no doubt SUM are a successful company and should continue to be so, and there's also no doubt they know how to back land and build properties, heck they're doing an amazing job with that! I'm glad that you acknowledge albeit obliquely a sale performance issue (by not refuting it) that has been emerging for some years now. It's reported in their FY results way down the bottom in the sales table, but it's just that they don't spell out the % of sales versus units available for sale, which has declined year on year for quite some time.

So their development programme has got well ahead of their ability to sell the properties. I think it's fudging the numbers by reducing development, as it will of course make sales look better as a % of units available for sale. I reckon if I was a Board member I'd be making life difficult by asking what they're doing about selling what they have and why should I have confidence that they can sell what's in the development pipeline, without arresting the developments which are going so well.

Yes, I'd be all over the the sales manager like a rash and asking all sorts of awkward questions. I wouldn't immediately support a non-disclosure of developments (as they said recently "not headlining"), I'd be grinding on their sales strategy and methods and what they're doing about fixing their sales under-performance.

If that's helped by having 'fixed fees for life', then bring it on, it's a sales motivation (at least part of), and that's what we want to see, a coherent plan to fixing sales underperformance, a sustainable pathway to unloading all the properties that are vacated and that they so capably can develop.

SilverBack

08-05-2019, 10:12 PM

There's no doubt SUM are a successful company and should continue to be so, and there's also no doubt they know how to back land and build properties, heck they're doing an amazing job with that! I'm glad that you acknowledge albeit obliquely a sale performance issue (by not refuting it) that has been emerging for some years now. It's reported in their FY results way down the bottom in the sales table, but it's just that they don't spell out the % of sales versus units available for sale, which has declined year on year for quite some time.

So their development programme has got well ahead of their ability to sell the properties. I think it's fudging the numbers by reducing development, as it will of course make sales look better as a % of units available for sale. I reckon if I was a Board member I'd be making life difficult by asking what they're doing about selling what they have and why should I have confidence that they can sell what's in the development pipeline, without arresting the developments which are going so well.

Yes, I'd be all over the the sales manager like a rash and asking all sorts of awkward questions. I wouldn't immediately support a non-disclosure of developments (as they said recently "not headlining"), I'd be grinding on their sales strategy and methods and what they're doing about fixing their sales under-performance.

If that's helped by having 'fixed fees for life', then bring it on, it's a sales motivation (at least part of), and that's what we want to see, a coherent plan to fixing sales underperformance, a sustainable pathway to unloading all the properties that are vacated and that they so capably can develop.

If you keep pushing staff to increase sales in the face of a declining market then sooner or later you will suffer in some way from "innovative" methods devised by the staff that will turn and bite you later on. This has been well proven in the Australian banking industry recently and also in the USA.

Beagle

08-05-2019, 10:26 PM

Client of mine is doing a development in Auckland and Bayley's have been appointed. Had a good chat with John Bayley the owner yesterday and without any prompting or question from me he brought up the national days to settle matter which has jumped quite considerably, (so Julian is a straight shooter as I have come to know he is). Anyone who thinks this will not affect RYM is deluding themselves or more likely hasn't thought it through. RYM also have plenty of exposure to the Australian property market which really is tanking. Discussed quite a few other things with him. Interest rates are at unprecedented lows that neither I or he has ever seen before as are capitalisation rates for industrial property. Many rental properties around N.Z. with appropriate gearing and sub 4% interest rates are now cash flow positive and where are all the 60,000 new immigrants arriving each year going to live ? N.Z. and Australian residential property dynamics are quite different.
I think all the "text book" experts or here and the other forum predicting a property crash in N.Z. are simply fearmongering with absolutely no date to support their viewpoint and little understanding of the basic laws of supply and demand. The real experts I talk to see things quite differently.

Posted 4/5/19. You should have come along to the annual meeting Baa Baa...sluggish sales was discussed at quite some length during the Q&A and I am not saying its not an issue, it is !
Lots of factors...new village units built but without the main facilities at present are a bit of a turn off for buyers...people want to see the main recreational / common area building up and running, slow settlement times definitely a big factor as confirmed with my discussion with John Bayley last Friday.
People unsure what they will get for their home because of uncertainty hanging over the market created by the Government with their endless prevarication with CGT and the change to the foreign buyer eligibility on 22 October 2018 meaning people are reluctant to sign contracts at villages until they have sold their home. Banks making it tougher to get finance for buyers slowing down the house sales process...the list goes on and on and on and on...no one single factor or silver bullet either.

No point in them building more this year than they can sell with already having high stock level's. Fixed fees for life...I think I am starting to win Julian over but its like turning the Titanic around with super small rudders. Believe me, I have tried to get it into his head that old people crave the certainty that fixed fees for life gives them. He acknowledged last week that everyone else is now doing it and they have been looking at it. Everyone on here knows I can be relied upon to be dogmatic when necessary and I won't give up.

BlackPeter

09-05-2019, 09:43 AM

There's no doubt SUM are a successful company and should continue to be so, and there's also no doubt they know how to back land and build properties, heck they're doing an amazing job with that! I'm glad that you acknowledge albeit obliquely a sale performance issue (by not refuting it) that has been emerging for some years now. It's reported in their FY results way down the bottom in the sales table, but it's just that they don't spell out the % of sales versus units available for sale, which has declined year on year for quite some time.

So their development programme has got well ahead of their ability to sell the properties. I think it's fudging the numbers by reducing development, as it will of course make sales look better as a % of units available for sale. I reckon if I was a Board member I'd be making life difficult by asking what they're doing about selling what they have and why should I have confidence that they can sell what's in the development pipeline, without arresting the developments which are going so well.

Yes, I'd be all over the the sales manager like a rash and asking all sorts of awkward questions. I wouldn't immediately support a non-disclosure of developments (as they said recently "not headlining"), I'd be grinding on their sales strategy and methods and what they're doing about fixing their sales under-performance.

If that's helped by having 'fixed fees for life', then bring it on, it's a sales motivation (at least part of), and that's what we want to see, a coherent plan to fixing sales underperformance, a sustainable pathway to unloading all the properties that are vacated and that they so capably can develop.

Not so sure whether flogging the sales people is the best strategy. Never a good idea to flood the market with more product that the market wants to take. Never good to find the maximum you can sell (because this kills margins), they need to search for the optimum: sell as many units as they can at still healthy margins. That's where the sweet spot sits.

I think its ok to reduce production for some time if the market can't take all the units. Even if they stop building new units (what they don't plan) they still will make nice money with resales.

But I am sure, the problem will be very temporary. We have a housing shortage, we have still healthy immigration numbers, we have a government inept of increasing the (ways too low) build rate and we just had a reduction in the interest rate ... the market will sort it. Retirement units are probably the best way for the government to address the still deteriorating housing crisis.

Bjauck

09-05-2019, 10:01 AM

I know a lot about rental housing in New Zealand, current and proposed rules. I would be alarmed if any company I owned shares in decided to enter that market. Check out the Residential Tenancies Act, Labour and Greens rental housing policies (and the current consultations under way), and try a sampling of the tens of thousands of Tenancy Tribunal cases every year. Almost all brought by landlords for rent arrears and damage....

With the suggestion of a mixture of ORA and lease, The upfront ORA payment would provide a security, against which damage or non-payment of lease could be deducted.

In addition, of the tenancy tribunal cases for arrears and damage, how many were as a result of actions brought against tenants of retirement age?

minimoke

09-05-2019, 10:38 AM

In case it has been missed

"Today's Reserve Bank interest rate cut (http://0.186.153.77/) - taking the OCR to record low of 1.5 per cent - will reignite New Zealand's housing market, Westpac chief economist Dominick Stephens says,"Mortgage rates have plunged over the past two months, and today's OCR cut will cause them to fall further," Stephens said.
"We think the consequence will be an upturn in the housing market, starting in the second half of 2019."

Beagle

09-05-2019, 10:50 AM

winner69

09-05-2019, 11:01 AM

Reviewing all the economic stuff that impacts the housing market and putting them all into a matrix and assessing what usually happens to the housing market when an indicator changes I reckon we could see the number of house sales over the next year increase by more than 10% and that prices on the average could will be 5% or more higher in a years time

Good for Summerset I reckon .......as long as Julian stirs up his sales people and doesn’t accept that non existent longer days to sell as an excuse for the sales people to finalise sales.

Even more confident of increased number of house sales and higher prices in next year after the misguided OCR cut yesterday

If only Julian and his team would stop looking for excuses and just get on with selling units Summerset should be OK

Volunteered my services as a mystery shopper .....wonder what it entails but must be important if mentioned as a key component of their sales strategy

Beagle

09-05-2019, 11:05 AM

More good news. The chronic Nurses shortage has finally been recognised by this Government without even the need for a 2 year long working party study lol
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1905/S00263/aged-care-welcomes-immigration-decision-on-nurses.htm

iceman

09-05-2019, 11:24 AM

Even more confident of increased number of house sales and higher prices in next year after the misguided OCR cut yesterday

If only Julian and his team would stop looking for excuses and just get on with selling units Summerset should be OK

Volunteered my services as a mystery shopper .....wonder what it entails but must be important if mentioned as a key component of their sales strategy

Maybe Julian should contact Twyford and see if we can sell a few through Kiwibuid, bearing in mind that he needs 99,916 more to build/claim to meet his soon to be abandoned target !!

BlackPeter

09-05-2019, 01:48 PM

winner69

09-05-2019, 02:27 PM

Looks like Fisher funds using the current SP weakness to accumulate: They increased their holding by nearly 2.5 million shares over the last 4 weeks! Clever ...

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SUM/334318/299578.pdf

Trying to make up for lost ground as April not good for them -

A drag on performance was retirement village provider Summerset (-15%) after releasing a weak quarterly new sales figure, citing that increased settlement times in the residential property market are impacting settlement of its units. Following our recent site visit in March, we nonetheless believe that the company remains well positioned despite this short-term market-related weakness.

It looks like fisher also bought more Ryman as well ....and even more XRO

Bjauck

09-05-2019, 02:57 PM

couta1

09-05-2019, 03:01 PM

That’s good. Why was the shortage allowed to grow for so long? Ask the Govt that question and I'm sure they will come up with some well spun political answer for you..

SilverBack

10-05-2019, 01:16 AM

BlackPeter

10-05-2019, 08:42 AM

What is clever about holding a company in their portfolio while it falls from 800c to 550c? So they were averaging down in the past few weeks?

Clever is to use the current weakness to increase their holding. But - by the way - they only returned to substantial shareholder status in April 2019. I don't know, how many (if any) they did hold on the way down, given that they sold some end of Feb 2018 (after an upspike) and dropped at that stage below 5% - but if they did, it was a smaller parcel.

I guess one thing we need to understand as well is that the investment rules for big investors look a bit different. Assume you think a share has peaked, than as a small investor you might run for the exit. As a big investor you are already too late because any sale of a big parcel would just crash the market.

Big funds need to think a bit more long term unless they want to create havoc on the markets.

But anyway - I do have my Kiwisaver account with Fisher funds and am quite pleased about their information as well as performance. Good company.

winner69

10-05-2019, 08:56 AM

Clever is to use the current weakness to increase their holding. But - by the way - they only returned to substantial shareholder status in April 2019. I don't know, how many (if any) they did hold on the way down, given that they sold some end of Feb 2018 (after an upspike) and dropped at that stage below 5% - but if they did, it was a smaller parcel.

I guess one thing we need to understand as well is that the investment rules for big investors look a bit different. Assume you think a share has peaked, than as a small investor you might run for the exit. As a big investor you are already too late because any sale of a big parcel would just crash the market.

Big funds need to think a bit more long term unless they want to create havoc on the markets.

But anyway - I do have my Kiwisaver account with Fisher funds and am quite pleased about their information as well as performance. Good company.

SUM generally about 5% to 6% of that Fishers portfolio (a bit less than Ryman) which shows some conviction

Buys and sells over time probably because of investing new money and rebalancing portfolio activities.....that’s the clever bit

Bjauck

10-05-2019, 08:58 AM

Ask the Govt that question and I'm sure they will come up with some well spun political answer for you..
You mean the previous National Government that sat on its hands for so long? At least Notaxcinda has tried to face up to the issues, despite parliamentary numbers, in several areas that were left in the too hard basket.

trader_jackson

13-05-2019, 11:41 AM

Slipping back down to my previous buy order price...
Hard to believe the share price was higher September 9 2016 - that is ages ago they say.

Beagle

13-05-2019, 12:09 PM

Now trading at just 46.7% of RYM's share price.

Beagle

14-05-2019, 10:58 AM

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/money/homeandproperty/auckland-house-sales-drop-16-percent-in-april/ar-AABjpB0?ocid=spartandhp
National medium price up 6.4% year on year and unchanged from March. Hardly the massive fall that the naysayers keep predicting but I am sure some will twist these statistics to read whatever they want to read out of them.
https://reinz.co.nz/residential-property-data-gallery
Canterbury up 4.3% YOY and Auckland flat.

As we know from SSH notices Kingfish have added to their position in SUM http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/KFL/334516/299801.pdf

Westpac economist predicts house price increase of 7% https://tmmonline.nz/article/976514837/westpac-predicts-house-price-boom-but-no-more-ocr-cuts?utm_source=GR&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Latest+house+sales+data+not+flash%3B+ Westpac+reckons+market+will+rebound

minimoke

14-05-2019, 12:35 PM

Yup, you know what it is time for. Another picture!From 12 April

And todays picture

Beagle

14-05-2019, 12:42 PM

From 12 April

And todays picture

No this can't be right MM, there must be a mistake in there somewhere, surely ?...National medium price up year on year 4.5% last month but now up YOY by 6.4% April 2018 to April 2019. Wait, this trend is for the medium rate of increase to be actually increasing, surely not !...This cannot be right as everyone tells me the sky is falling on real estate and its falling off the edge of a cliff :lol:

minimoke

14-05-2019, 12:46 PM

No this can't be right MM, there must be a mistake in there somewhere, surely ?...National medium price up year on year 4.5% last month but now up YOY by 6.4% April 2018 to April 2019. Wait, this trend is for the medium rate of increase to be actually increasing, surely not !...This cannot be right as everyone tells me the sky is falling on real estate and its falling off the edge of a cliff :lol:I guess that is the difference between uninformed opinion and fact. (Look also at all the little "r"s in the wee circles . A few upwards records there as well.

peat

14-05-2019, 12:51 PM

good stuff guys

10538

10539

dabsman

14-05-2019, 12:54 PM

It is a perfect time to accumulate. Contrarian maybe but then I look at the Real Estate figures minimoke posted and I wonder if am I contrarian at all? Then you look at interest rates and WBC saying they expect an accelerating housing market... fill your boots at this price

winner69

14-05-2019, 01:33 PM

Will Julian continue to use days to sell as his excuse for poor sales?

I think that’s wearing a bit thin.

Beagle

14-05-2019, 01:58 PM

winner69

14-05-2019, 02:14 PM

winner69

14-05-2019, 02:23 PM

Kingfish fund managers think so and have added significantly to their position.

Yes SUM are pretty good value at current price.

Esp if Julian pulls finger and gets things moving along a bit faster

percy

14-05-2019, 03:00 PM

Kingfish fund managers think so and have added significantly to their position.

Was wondering what caused the slump in SUM's sp.
Now I know,thanks.

allfromacell

14-05-2019, 03:24 PM

From those REINZ reports HPI for April is DOWN 1.2% from March (akl down 2.1% and rest of NZ down 0.4%)

Number of sales in April down 11% from a year ago and numbers have trending down for a whole now. High correlation between number of house sales and house prices so current trend a bit of a worry....unless the number of sales pick up from here.

Doesn’t always to get carried away by the headlines .....esp comparing things to a year ago.

Wow that's a massive monthly drop in Auckland, off the back of a 0.5% drop last month. Hopefully it rebounds soon because as long as Auckland's house prices continue to fall this fast the regional cities will surely follow.

artemis

14-05-2019, 03:27 PM

...... Number of sales in April down 11% from a year ago and numbers have trending down for a whole now. High correlation between number of house sales and house prices so current trend a bit of a worry....unless the number of sales pick up from here.

Doesn’t always to get carried away by the headlines .....esp comparing things to a year ago.

Some of that downtrend in sales is due to residential property investors not buying and / or not building new. Reserve Bank reports monthly new bank lending for PIs (and other groups). Each $billion down per month on lending to PIs represents several thousand homes not bought by them. Each month. And that class of lending is down $1.7billion per month since peak in mid 2016.

It's a complex market of course, but those numbers are significant, not least to REAs. Not that the media ever reports them.

And if people want to know why PIs are not buying, and why plenty are selling up, take a glance at the new Healthy Homes Regs coming into force in a few weeks.

www.legislation.govt.nz/regulation/public/2019/0088/latest/whole.html

winner69

14-05-2019, 04:39 PM

Was wondering what caused the slump in SUM's sp.
Now I know,thanks.

Good one percy ...Rey perceptive of you

Beagle

14-05-2019, 09:21 PM

Wow that's a massive monthly drop in Auckland, off the back of a 0.5% drop last month. Hopefully it rebounds soon because as long as Auckland's house prices continue to fall this fast the regional cities will surely follow.

The medium price hasn't dropped over the last year, see the image clearly depicted in Minimoke's post 7805 which shows Auckland is flat and while you're looking at that you will notice that the medium national price is up 6.4% year on year. The facts are diametrically opposed to your baseless opinion.

value_investor

14-05-2019, 09:46 PM

Interesting stats on the REINZ, excluding the Auckland prices YoY median is up 7.6% and Auckland at a flat 0%. REINZ HPI index is a better measure of the house prices because medians can be skewed by a few numbers on either side being the anomaly especially when less houses are sold. HPI includes house sales that are unconditional so a bit more forward looking.

Auckland down 4.4% on the last year is the biggest one, and its likely the lack of investors propping up markets in the leafy suburbs as the RBNZ, less funding for investors https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/c31. I'm sure the first home buyers will not be able to afford on the levels of the investors so the mix of sales is changing to the lower end of the market.

I think if you are in SUM for the long haul then you have the chance now to double down. People will still be retiring and will still need houses to move into. The company is good enough to be astute to sell to those requiring it even if sales are weaker until we reach the point that the retirement timebomb explodes http://www.superseniors.msd.govt.nz/about-superseniors/media/key-statistics.html

At a PE of about 13, its probably the best value you'll get out there right now.

Beagle

14-05-2019, 10:25 PM

If they can do $110m underlying profit this year that puts them on a forward PE of just 11.5.

allfromacell

14-05-2019, 11:29 PM

The medium price hasn't dropped over the last year, see the image clearly depicted in Minimoke's post 7805 which shows Auckland is flat and while you're looking at that you will notice that the medium national price is up 6.4% year on year. The facts are diametrically opposed to your baseless opinion.

I'm basing my opinion on the HPI data as it's the most accurate publicly available data we have. If you look back on the past couple of months you'll see the NZ excluding Auckland HPI hasn't been to flash and the Auckland rate is falling off a cliff.

I agree the regional market has held up well, but if Auckland continues to fall at anything near the rate it has over March & April it would be naive to think the region's won't be effected. Using the HPI is a much better way of comparing apples to apples.

Regardless, I think SUM is a good buy here and hold quite a few. I do however think that the Auckland property market slow down is significantly responsible for the sector SP slowdown.

Raz

15-05-2019, 07:08 AM

I'm basing my opinion on the HPI data as it's the most accurate publicly available data we have. If you look back on the past couple of months you'll see the NZ excluding Auckland HPI hasn't been to flash and the Auckland rate is falling off a cliff.

I agree the regional market has held up well, but if Auckland continues to fall at anything near the rate it has over March & April it would be naive to think the region's won't be effected. Using the HPI is a much better way of comparing apples to apples.

Regardless, I think SUM is a good buy here and hold quite a few. I do however think that the Auckland property market slow down is significantly responsible for the sector SP slowdown.

I agree to a degree, it is the Auckland overshoot in perceptions ahead of the stats...flat property market is a dangerous place for confidence.

bull....

15-05-2019, 11:53 AM

looks ready for the next leg down along with other village stocks. property sales figures just released did not look pretty

dreamcatcher

15-05-2019, 12:07 PM

NZ SALES ON DOWNBOUND TRAIN

https://www.landlords.co.nz/article/976514847/nz-sales-on-downbound-train

AUCKLAND HOUSE PRICE DEFLATION ACCELERATES AS SALES VOLUMES PLUMMET

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/6733984d/auckland-house-price-deflation-accelerates-as-sales-volumes-plummet.html

RENTAL PROPERTY CONFIDENCE DIMS

https://www.landlords.co.nz/article/976514855/rental-property-confidence-dims

Todays..........ASB Morning Brief

Beagle

15-05-2019, 02:57 PM

winner69

15-05-2019, 03:26 PM

You guys can use whatever index you like. Since Adam was a boy the medium price has been the Gold standard and remains so as far as I am concerned.
Just because REINZ has come up with some new index doesn't mean its suddenly the new Gold standard any more than Bitcoin is the new standard for the monetary system.
All the negative talk doesn't worry me. Its already more than fully factored into the super low metrics of the stock and I remain very confident of my in depth knowledge of the company.

Newspapers live the median ...real people have used for HPI for quite a while

Anyway just as matter of interest the National median price for April was the same as it was for March ....median house price did not increase in April

You can even get seasonally adjusted median house prices as well .. that was 1.9% up from March to April ...let’s use that eh

Beagle

15-05-2019, 03:29 PM

Newspapers live the median ...real people have used for HPI for quite a while

Anyway just as matter of interest the National median price for April was the same as it was for March ....median house price did not increase in April

You can even get seasonally adjusted median house prices as well .. that was 1.9% up from March to April ...let’s use that eh

I'm a dog so I'll stick doggedly to what I believe is the gold standard even if I have to be dogmatic doing it :p

BlackPeter

15-05-2019, 03:38 PM

looks ready for the next leg down along with other village stocks. property sales figures just released did not look pretty

NZ SALES ON DOWNBOUND TRAIN

https://www.landlords.co.nz/article/976514847/nz-sales-on-downbound-train

AUCKLAND HOUSE PRICE DEFLATION ACCELERATES AS SALES VOLUMES PLUMMET

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/6733984d/auckland-house-price-deflation-accelerates-as-sales-volumes-plummet.html

RENTAL PROPERTY CONFIDENCE DIMS

https://www.landlords.co.nz/article/976514855/rental-property-confidence-dims

Todays..........ASB Morning Brief

OK - I obviously realise that some people here are desperate to spread fear and generally love to emphasize anything which could be interpreted as bad news. I hope you have fun ...

But apart from that the linked to article said:

Despite the decline in sales activity, median house prices nationwide increased by 6.4% in April.

So, lets for a moment pause before we all run for the hills. Maybe we just should think about what these numbers could mean:

NZ has a finite number of homes. According to this article it was roughly 1.88 million end of 2018:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/103478711/how-many-homes-are-there-in-new-zealand

End of 2017 it was 1.856 million homes - i.e. the number of homes did increase during 2018 year by roughly 24000 homes or 2000 per month (however they define "home) or 1.3% of all homes;

I probably have some rounding errors in above numbers, but they don't change the picture.

So - the number of homes is growing very slowly and our inept government does what it can to further reduce the velocity building new homes, i.e. any "growth" of house sales per year would come only from people swapping their homes faster and faster.

However - if the property merry go round is moving faster and faster, this is no measure of the economy doing well. Sure - some people need to move (because they want to or need to live somewhere else), but for others it is just a sign of stupidity. Moving without need just costs money without adding value. One of our former neighbours swapped home every 3 years or so to "make money". They started with a nice (inherited) house in a good neighbourhood and live now (20 years later) in a pretty dilapidated house in one of the most run down parts of Christchurch. However - they really did their part to keep these annual sales numbers up.

What the numbers are saying is that the property merry go round is turning a bit slower and people are saving the money they otherwise would put into pointless moves and build up a nestegg to buy into SUM or some other retirement companies.

We see as well that the house price is rising, which means that if they want to move into their SUM unit, they will get more for their home and can afford the better unit - well, unless they moved every 3 years. Our former neighbours could not anymore afford to buy into SUM. They sold their house too often instead.

All good. No reason to panic.

But, if you enjoy the exercise - now is an as good time as any to run for the hills. GO!

winner69

15-05-2019, 03:56 PM

Hey BP ...you are usually the one rubbishing companies but i’ll Allow you the odd ramp.

Your story would have sounded better if you had said median house price was up 19.6% since April 2016 .....much more impressive .....so no worries.

Beagle

15-05-2019, 03:57 PM

LOL BP - Told you SUM people would try and put their own creative spin on the numbers. These same people probably have very little understanding of the company or how it operates and its probably never occurred to them that property developers can do very well even in a flat market as they can procure land, building supplies and manpower at cheaper prices.

People will see what they want to see. For example - disaffected renters will probably always be hoping for and seeing a pending property crash in the hope they may one day be able to afford a house of their own.

Julian told me after the meeting he is confident of earnings growth this year and with the company track record and trading on a forward underlying PE of 11-12 that's plenty good enough for me.

MauroNZ

15-05-2019, 04:28 PM

Beagle

15-05-2019, 05:36 PM

Still rated as BBB?

Rating has been upgraded to HHH which is better than BBB or even AAA :D

HHH = Happy hound holder :)

winner69

15-05-2019, 05:45 PM

winner69

15-05-2019, 05:54 PM

“Seeing the world anew”- the seeing of new patterns- is one of our most important survival skills, and is something that we all need to include in our thinking.

Beagle

15-05-2019, 06:00 PM

SUM at 560 pretty good value

Slightly underpriced but will still increase over next year in line with earnings growth so 630/640 likely by year’s end.

...but you never know the world might go mad and rerate it a bit ...then 770 is on cards mid next year

I'm thinking a lot further out than one year, (for a change lol), but that's pretty much how I foresee it travelling in the short term.

winner69

15-05-2019, 07:51 PM

When it comes to house price trends there really isn’t that much difference between the gold standard and the numbers real people use

Then again QV have another series.

Baa_Baa

15-05-2019, 08:16 PM

When it comes to house price trends there really isn’t that much difference between the gold standard and the numbers real people use

Then again QV have another series.

Love your charts winner, just goes to show the quibbles over a few % here or there are nonsense. Look at the trend! Wow. No sign of reversing into the doldrums, and with RBNZ slashing OCR and banks debasing mortgage interest rates, ballyhoo, property continues to be the best investment in NZ. Or listed property companies of which there are a few special ones we like.

dreamcatcher

16-05-2019, 12:09 AM

OK - I obviously realise that some people here are desperate to spread fear and generally love to emphasize anything which could be interpreted as bad news. I hope you have fun ...

Thats rubbish BP these were news items from ASB's site this morning but sorry if it wasn't balanced.

My portfolio includes retirement stocks but until I see clarity on property prices and the Govt's intentions regarding LandBankers will watch from sidelines.

BlackPeter

16-05-2019, 08:54 AM

Thats rubbish BP these were news items from ASB's site this morning but sorry if it wasn't balanced.

My portfolio includes retirement stocks but until I see clarity on property prices and the Govt's intentions regarding LandBankers will watch from sidelines.

I tend to call a spade a spade. If that's what you call "rubbish", be my guest ...

Beagle

16-05-2019, 09:56 AM

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/attachment.php?attachmentid=10544&d=1557906661

Picture says a thousand words. QED.

MauroNZ

16-05-2019, 10:03 AM

Rating has been upgraded to HHH which is better than BBB or even AAA :D

HHH = Happy hound holder :)

Cool, just curious if the current price is still a good buy.

MauroNZ

16-05-2019, 10:04 AM

SUM at 560 pretty good value

Slightly underpriced but will still increase over next year in line with earnings growth so 630/640 likely by year’s end.

...but you never know the world might go mad and rerate it a bit ...then 770 is on cards mid next year

That's what my gut says, how do you see it from the TA?

Beagle

16-05-2019, 10:06 AM

Cool, just curious if the current price is still a good buy.

Yes absolutely. I think there is compelling value on offer around $5.60-$5.70.

MauroNZ

16-05-2019, 10:07 AM

When it comes to house price trends there really isn’t that much difference between the gold standard and the numbers real people use

Then again QV have another series.

I don't know when, but this is not good, house prices can't keep rising forever, something is going to happen. Is not a wish nor down ramping but just a huge concern.
Interesting documentary:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HzSAmOQuyjU

Bjauck

16-05-2019, 10:24 AM

I don't know when, but this is not good, house prices can't keep rising forever, something is going to happen. Is not a wish nor down ramping but just a huge concern.
Interesting documentary:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HzSAmOQuyjU
I am an investor in three of the ORA providers. Barring a major correction I am happy with that as there business is not just about land price increases.

However, given NZ households’ major dependency on real estate investment and its reliance on untaxed (leveraged) capital gains to provide a large proportion of its return, I am concerned any further increase at this stage may mean a more dramatic correction.

BlackPeter

16-05-2019, 10:30 AM

I don't know when, but this is not good, house prices can't keep rising forever, something is going to happen. Is not a wish nor down ramping but just a huge concern.
Interesting documentary:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HzSAmOQuyjU

Interesting to note that the countries with low home ownership rates like e.g. Germany (51.9% home ownership rate) and Switzerland (43.4% home ownership rate) are typically much wealthier than countries with high home ownership rates (like e.g. Romania with 96.4% home ownership rate or China with 90%): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_home_ownership_rate

And yes, Singapore (a wealthy country) is an exception to this rule - here the state is heavily subsidizing the first (and often the last) home to their citizens.

NZ is with a current homeownership rate of 63.2% somewhere in the middle between the wealthy countries and the poor countries, but maybe it is a good thing home ownership rates are dropping and we are getting more wealthy?

Bjauck

16-05-2019, 10:43 AM

…
NZ is with a current homeownership rate of 63.2% somewhere in the middle between the wealthy countries and the poor countries, but maybe it is a good thing home ownership rates are dropping and we are getting more wealthy?
I agree that being wealthy should not depend on owning one’s own home. However in NZ it is currently the case that you are more able to borrow to invest in a house, and if you do, you can enjoy untaxed leveraged capital gains (whether owner occupied or not).

NZ (as a whole) may be getting wealthier. However does the increased wealth belong to a smaller percentage of the population? Are the increasing numbers who do not/ cannot own real estate getting wealthier?

As much of NZ household wealth depends on land. Owning an average unmortaged million dollar house today is equivalent to a $70,000 house 40 odd years ago. I guess you would be wealthier in you moved abroad to a country that has not had such inflationary land values.

Raz

16-05-2019, 02:04 PM

I tend to call a spade a spade. If that's what you call "rubbish", be my guest ...

haha great entertainment. Spade for digging...

Some people are getting a little desperate for only one point of view around be expressed here. If they had confidence in their position surely they could handle a contrarian points of view.

couta1

16-05-2019, 02:06 PM

haha great entertainment. Spade for digging...

Some people are getting a little desperate for only one point of view around be expressed here. If they had confidence in their position surely they could handle a contrarian points of view. This stock certainly gets more than it's fair share of attention though I'm not sure why.

dreamcatcher

16-05-2019, 02:39 PM

Spade is a Spade and only positive spades can dig here negative spades must only dig in others gardens a bit like doggies do

Thick skin and large dose of humour a must ............ no offense intended or taken BP as I enjoy your posts

SilverBack

16-05-2019, 08:43 PM

This stock certainly gets more than it's fair share of attention though I'm not sure why.

Probably because most of the contributors are superannuitants and are naturally attracted to this kind of enterprise.

winner69

17-05-2019, 11:04 AM

Tony from BNZ gone bearish on property market

Must have lost the plot

http://tonyalexander.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/WO-May-16-2019.pdf

winner69

17-05-2019, 11:07 AM

Moosie on another forum reckons a second wave of selling likely -

Have noted RYM has taken a nose-dive the past few days and is looking petty sick chartwise. Can't be good for SUM as failure to rise back above $6.00 resistance and weak indicators says we're heading back down to test the $5.50 lows soon. Second wave of selling may begin in earnest if that support breaks...

Beagle

17-05-2019, 11:36 AM

Moosie probably a disaffected non house owner praying for a collapse miracle so he can afford a house.
Different economists have different viewpoints regarding the future. Time will tell but I am very comfortable with the metrics.

BlackPeter

17-05-2019, 12:12 PM

Tony from BNZ gone bearish on property market

Must have lost the plot

http://tonyalexander.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/WO-May-16-2019.pdf

This the same Tony who predicted in spring 2016 Auckland's housing prices to rise forever?

https://rwpukekohe.co.nz/news/tony-alexander-bnz-economist-weekly-overview-15th-september-2016

And for the record, here is a link to my 2012 article on 19 reasons why Auckland house prices would keep rising. Most still seem valid. Enjoy if you have already bought. Despair if you have not. And if you have put off buying because of one of the many incorrect forecasts that house prices were about to fall – whoops a daisy.

BTW - he made good points why Auckland's property prices will keep rising. And I think all but one of his points (impact of foreign buyers) are still true.

And now you are saying he went to the dark side? Shudder :scared:

winner69

20-05-2019, 07:10 PM

Half way through second quarter

Hope the mystery shopping is doing the trick and sales are booming, esp to n Christchurch and Auckland,

tipsy

20-05-2019, 09:11 PM

Half way through second quarter

Hope the mystery shopping is doing the trick and sales are booming, esp to n Christchurch and Auckland,

No worries mate, Julian just telling fibs regarding the slowing property market affecting sales, gonna be a boomer with all the cruises they've been giving away.

SilverBack

20-05-2019, 09:13 PM

No worries mate, Julian just telling fibs regarding the slowing property market affecting sales, gonna be a boomer with all the cruises they've been giving away.

Of course. Fantastic sales, fantastic fall in margin along with it. Seems like desperation to me.

winner69

22-05-2019, 08:56 AM

House prices set to rocket ...again

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/839dd26e/westpac-sees-rekindled-house-price-inflation-of-7.html

Beagle

22-05-2019, 09:48 AM

House prices set to rocket ...again

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/839dd26e/westpac-sees-rekindled-house-price-inflation-of-7.html

I think the removal of capital gains tax which has been overhanging the market since Labour was gifted the election win by Winston Peter's in late 2017 is a significant factor as is the lowest interest rates I have ever seen. 3 year fixed mortgages from mainstream banks for around 3.8% is quite remarkable.

Different economists will have different views but I tend to agree with Westpac.

Useful to zoom out and have a look at the big picture. Immigration is still running really strong and will underpin the market demand-supply equation and the cost of building a new home has been rising at an alarming rate vastly in excess of the inflation rate in no small way due to the ridiculously expensive and draconian building consent processes.

SUM's metric s have never been more compelling since it listed 7 1/2 years ago, (a fact all the naysayers and doomsday merchants always very conveniently overlook).
Another factor they never mention is the quality of the management and the board and the unprecedented track record of profit growth SUM has achieved since listing which to the best of my knowledge is unmatched by any other company on the NZX including the much revered Ryman.

Excellent long term hold in my opinion.

BlackPeter

22-05-2019, 09:49 AM

House prices set to rocket ...again

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/839dd26e/westpac-sees-rekindled-house-price-inflation-of-7.html

Don't say that - must be fake news. I guess all the doomsday prophets didn't had their downturn yet, didn't they ... and for sure, they must be right at some stage ...

Beagle

22-05-2019, 09:53 AM

Don't say that - must be fake news. I guess all the doomsday prophets didn't had their downturn yet, didn't they ... and for sure, they must be right at some stage ...

Even a broken clock is right twice a day lol

winner69

22-05-2019, 09:58 AM

Don't say that - must be fake news. I guess all the doomsday prophets didn't had their downturn yet, didn't they ... and for sure, they must be right at some stage ...

Worry is that Dominic and I are on the same wavelength ....I said 5% plus a week or so ago but that’s dependent on the number of house sales picking up quite significantly.

But when it comes down to it we believe the things we read that are seen to be positive for SUM eh ...gives us the warm fuzzies eh.

winner69

22-05-2019, 10:23 AM

Even a broken clock is right twice a day lol

Yep I get excited every now and again when I look at the lovely Omega watch I’ve left on the dresser for many years ......especially when I look at 5.23 and say heck it still keeps good time

Joshuatree

22-05-2019, 10:33 AM

But when it comes down to it we believe the things we read that are seen to be positive for SUM eh ...gives us the warm fuzzies eh.

Yep its called investor bias and calls one prediction a fact;)

Beagle

22-05-2019, 10:48 AM

Yep its called investor bias and calls one prediction a fact;)

Plenty of non holders seem to be able to twist and contort the national average housing figures from REINZ showing medium national house prices up 6.5% for the year into the FACT that housing is falling off the edge of a cliff and in cataclysmic collapse :lol:

minimoke

22-05-2019, 11:00 AM

House near me just sold in least than two weeks on the market.

Went past SUM's Avonhead development yesterday. Looking good. Thought the motorway noise might be an issue. But its not.

Nice short stroll down to Avonhead Mall for the supermarket, bookshop and hairdresser. 5 Minutes away from airport (for all the overseas adventures residents can still enjoy). 3 minutes away from motorway on ramps to head north or south.

It will be a great development

winner69

22-05-2019, 11:15 AM

Plenty of non holders seem to be able to twist and contort the national average housing figures from REINZ showing medium national house prices up 6.5% for the year into the FACT that housing is falling off the edge of a cliff and in cataclysmic collapse :lol:

...but only up 1% from November’s median of $579k to April’s $585k ....in USA lingo annualised 2.4%

Not a cataclysmic collapse ..unlike the SUM share price cataclysmic collapse of 23% from a year ago

Joshuatree

22-05-2019, 11:18 AM

Plenty of non holders seem to be able to twist and contort the national average housing figures from REINZ showing medium national house prices up 6.5% for the year into the FACT that housing is falling off the edge of a cliff and in cataclysmic collapse :lol:

Thats a radical prediction sounding like fact. Using the c words.Sounds like a lemming mockumentary. Im GUESSING a minor drop this year. But then there is the global warming urgency starting to build, could impact capitalism somewhat; c words more pertinent there imo.

minimoke

22-05-2019, 11:23 AM

Thats a radical prediction sounding like fact. Using the c words.Sounds like a lemming mockumentary. Im GUESSING a minor drop this year. But then there is the global warming urgency starting to build, could impact capitalism somewhat; c words more pertinent there imo.Global warming is not a problem for SUM (or OCA on Windermere for that matter) buyers in Christchurch. Our local council has declared a Climate Emergency and they are now well positioned to deal with the problem. All good in this neck of the woods - expecting property values to increase on the back of this comforting position taken by the Council

couta1

22-05-2019, 11:39 AM

Thats a radical prediction sounding like fact. Using the c words.Sounds like a lemming mockumentary. Im GUESSING a minor drop this year. But then there is the global warming urgency starting to build, could impact capitalism somewhat; c words more pertinent there imo. Um dont you mean climate change it's not all about warming some places are getting cooler. PS-I see the Aussies have given the middle finger to the over exuberant policies of the Labour Govt on climate change and aligned themselves with the Trumpet in their thinking ie Economy comes first.

macduffy

22-05-2019, 12:04 PM

Despite today's low interest rates I can't see house prices taking off again. There's a point at which repayments become unaffordable without higher incomes, slowing and eventually halting price rises. I don't see economic prospects supporting significantly higher wages and salaries.

dreamcatcher

23-05-2019, 12:16 AM

Wonder if decline in sales would affect SUM nay their sales numbers are perfect ........

https://www.reinz.co.nz/Media/Default/Statistic%20Documents/2019/Residential/April/REINZ%20Monthly%20Property%20Report%20-%20April%202019.pdf

Key Data Summary

Volume Sold Year-on-Year
Volume Sold Month-on-Month

tipsy

24-05-2019, 03:23 PM

Damn, below 5.50 she goes :ohmy: chart doesn't look great.

bull....

24-05-2019, 03:31 PM

Damn, below 5.50 she goes :ohmy: chart doesn't look great.

the die hard believers are very quiet on SUM , OCA now. gone quiet like the property market

couta1

24-05-2019, 03:37 PM

the die hard believers are very quiet on SUM , OCA now. gone quiet like the property market Even my favourite milky share is looking a bit watery today so it's not just SUM specific.PS-No I dont own any of these.

Beagle

24-05-2019, 04:28 PM

the die hard believers are very quiet on SUM , OCA now. gone quiet like the property market

Had a very busy day and not even had time to look at RYM result in any depth at all. I see despite the very modest 12% increase in underlying profit, again undershooting their stated medium term target of 15% growth per annum, RYM at least in shareholders eyes can do no wrong and it gets to keep its market darling status despite growing considerably slower than SUM.

As a numbers man I believe eventually sentiment is less powerful than earnings and eventually the market will wake up to the numbers and growth SUM is generating and this old wives tale nonsense of it must trade at 40-60% of RYM will be confined to the annuals of folklore history where it belongs. I can't tell you which month or year this will happen, but if SUM keeps posting better growth numbers eventually the gap between the companies will close. I am in for the long haul with this one so as far as I am concerned whether this happens this decade or next it matters little to me other than it will happen as eventually the share price of all companies follows earnings per share.

Others will continue to cling to their theories on relative price and point to years of evidence to justify their opinion and that's fine.

I am not buying more and neither am I selling.

couta1

24-05-2019, 04:33 PM

The thing is Beagle the Couta Theorum is iron clad and time proven, your hopes are not. PS - Is hope really a strategy.

winner69

24-05-2019, 04:38 PM

The thing is Beagle the Couta Theorum is iron clad and time proven, your hopes are not. PS - Is hope really a strategy.

Not too long before SUM’s growth will be much the same as RYM’s

Growth rates are affected by big numbers and little numbers.

Beagle

24-05-2019, 04:44 PM

The thing is Beagle the Couta Theorum is iron clad and time proven, your hopes are not. PS - Is hope really a strategy.

Share prices follow earnings eventually my friend. In time, you'll see.

couta1

24-05-2019, 04:46 PM

Share prices follow earnings eventually my friend. In time, you'll see. Share prices follow sentiment being greed and fear, euphoria and melancholy.

minimoke

24-05-2019, 04:48 PM

the die hard believers are very quiet on SUM , OCA now. gone quiet like the property market
No - just enjoying my ride on PLX at the moment. Rest of market down - gloomy US tide dropping everyone at the moment.

winner69

24-05-2019, 05:34 PM

The thing is Beagle the Couta Theorum is iron clad and time proven, your hopes are not. PS - Is hope really a strategy.

I assume you noticed that if RYM result was the cause of the share price fall today it’s spooky that SUM went down by the same %age ......maintaining that relativity.

Baa_Baa

24-05-2019, 05:47 PM

I assume you noticed that if RYM result was the cause of the share price fall today it’s spooky that SUM went down by the same %age ......maintaining that relativity.

Relativity or not, the chart has SUM is right in the long term price support range (lower side) and still above the 200 MA. Has SUM ever been below the 200MA?

Beagle

24-05-2019, 05:51 PM

Share prices follow sentiment being greed and fear, euphoria and melancholy.

Those are definitely additional factors not to be ignored.

Ggcc

24-05-2019, 06:41 PM

The thing is Beagle the Couta Theorum is iron clad and time proven, your hopes are not. PS - Is hope really a strategy.

I agree with Beagle on this, but don’t know when the theory will be broken

couta1

24-05-2019, 06:47 PM

I agree with Beagle on this, but don’t know when the theory will be broken Having just read the RYM report thoroughly I have confidence it wont happen, their innovation and what they offer their residents in both care and extras is outstanding and they deserve Top dog status.

winner69

24-05-2019, 06:57 PM

Relativity or not, the chart has SUM is right in the long term price support range (lower side) and still above the 200 MA. Has SUM ever been below the 200MA?

The chart on NZX.com has sum quite a way below the 200ma ....been below it since aug/sep last year

Ps ..think NZX.com charts are wonky .....yahoo has it as you say currently just above the 200ma

And to your Dorothy Dixer share price never below 200ma (by looks of it)

Beagle

24-05-2019, 06:59 PM

Having just read the RYM report thoroughly I have confidence it wont happen, their innovation and what they offer their residents in both care and extras is outstanding and they deserve Top dog status.
Nice sentimental stuff mate. No room for sentiment with this dog, (just call me a commercial hound if you must lol)...just show me where to eat my dogfood... so I will always be a numbers man and speaking of which RYM just reported 45.5 cps underlying earnings. I believe its Craigs that are forecasting $106m for SUM for FY19 which would give 47.11 cps and I have a preliminary forecast of $110m which gives 48.9 cps. If RYM grows underlying earnings just 12% again that would see them report underlying earnings of 50.96 cps in FY 20. Those underlying earnings figures in terms of eps are getting very very close
I also note that SUM are still intending through wider development throughout the regions to wind up their development book to around 600 units a year over the next few years. I think your relativity theory will be sorely tested over the next few years but like many things, only time will tell :)

Baa_Baa

24-05-2019, 08:28 PM

Since the late Feb/early Mar time, RYM's SP performance has diverged positively from SUM's SP performance. We shouldn't ignore capital gains when assessing yield, imho. RYM has also corrected out of a nasty SP downtrend (great buying opportunity missed!) albeit still well below highs, whereas SUM has continued its down trend even after a promising early 2019 resurgence with no signs at present of reversion to an uptrend (quite the opposite).

SUM is currently diverging from RYM in as much as SP performance is concerned (MET is as well, which has a long history of being shafted by RYM's performance). SUM is in trouble if one used this as their yardstick. OCA just plods on flatlining on SP performance against RYM, so I think OCA is the 'sleeper' that when it awakens, might rattle the status quo. Hence I have a few OCA and a few SUM, but nursing my investor ego as RYM continues to outperform them both in 2019.

But I think these short term views are nonsense really, trying to find some meaning from the market which is a conglomeration of chaos, all of these companies are stellar performers, great product and services, very well run businesses that are very profitable, [insert all of the market tailwinds stuff], so this penchant for comparison isn't really that helpful for investors who perhaps should diversify across all of the retirement sector and see how it goes over the long haul.

jmho
BAA

couta1

24-05-2019, 08:51 PM

Best description of the share market I've heard Baa Baa, "A Conglomeration of Chaos" just perfect.

Baa_Baa

24-05-2019, 09:07 PM

Best description of the share market I've heard Baa Baa, "A Conglomeration of Chaos" just perfect.

Cheers mate, eloquence and insight is a delicate balance of wine and experience. Sometimes get it right.

Hope you have a fab weekend and get the Jag out for a burn, stuff the Gull, enjoy life while we can.

BAA

BlackPeter

25-05-2019, 09:27 AM

Having just read the RYM report thoroughly I have confidence it wont happen, their innovation and what they offer their residents in both care and extras is outstanding and they deserve Top dog status.

To be fair - if you compare them with others, you would need to read the reports of the others as well, wouldn't you?

No doubt Ryman was the first (of the big retirement village providers) and they are (so far) the biggest. Question is - what do they do the others don't which makes you believe it will always stay that way?

winner69

25-05-2019, 10:07 AM

To be fair - if you compare them with others, you would need to read the reports of the others as well, wouldn't you?

No doubt Ryman was the first (of the big retirement village providers) and they are (so far) the biggest. Question is - what do they do the others don't which makes you believe it will always stay that way?

Gold Standard on a global basis ...or something like that

I think Ryman lead the way in innovation (for want of a better term) which others need to follow ...or fall behind

And that’s one reason why Ryman share price commands a ‘premium’

Thsee initiatives sound quite impressive ...the lamb shanks in red wine or the beef cheeks look yummy ....and $2 flat whites look good value

”We are rolling out new village hosting services, a new meal service for independent residents, and a new approach to dementia care. We are also trialling a taxi and car sharing service, an electric car charging network in Auckland and new generation solar-powered townhouses.’’

BlackPeter

25-05-2019, 10:27 AM

Gold Standard on a global basis ...or something like that

I think Ryman lead the way in innovation (for want of a better term) which others need to follow ...or fall behind

Thsee initiatives sound quite impressive ...the lamb shanks in red wine or the beef cheeks look yummy ....and $2 flat whites look good value

”We are rolling out new village hosting services, a new meal service for independent residents, and a new approach to dementia care. We are also trialling a taxi and car sharing service, an electric car charging network in Auckland and new generation solar-powered townhouses.’’

OK - I read their PR as well, and no doubt - there are worse ways to grow old than in a Ryman retirement village. This is not the point, and I am sure the same is true for a Summerset or even a Metlifecare village.

Have a look into the Summerset report, the Oceania Report or even the Metlifecare report. They are all full of happy old people enjoying their meals and entertainment. Very similar stories - and they even all seem to win nearly every year some sort of award (though from different, all somewhat dubious providers)..

Again - so what is so special about Ryman that the others don't and won't do?

Blue Skies

25-05-2019, 11:18 AM

the die hard believers are very quiet on SUM , OCA now. gone quiet like the property market

Credit where credit's due Bull, your words of caution earlier in the year were well timed & well founded.
I note SUM SP almost 30% off last years high & OCA almost 25% off it's high.

While admittedly disappointed, haven't sold any (SUM & OCA around 20% of my portfolio) & probably should/thinking about, adding at current levels.

Maverick

25-05-2019, 07:46 PM

Baa_Baa

25-05-2019, 08:28 PM

The value offered with the current sp of ARV ,OCA and particularly SUM at 5.50 is a gift.

Agree, load up OCA, SUM while you can (not so sure about ARV but haven't researched it much), it's not often solid growth sectors with compelling tailwinds comes along, at attractive prices! Heck, even if GFCii comes, that will just present even better yield opportunities than now.

I love Vagours post awhile back on RYM where he bought steadfastly through the GFC and into the bottom SP, now must be sitting on a goldmine with plenty of upside to still come.

Beagle

26-05-2019, 12:00 PM

Agree, load up OCA, SUM while you can (not so sure about ARV but haven't researched it much), it's not often solid growth sectors with compelling tailwinds comes along, at attractive prices! Heck, even if GFCii comes, that will just present even better yield opportunities than now.

I love Vagours post awhile back on RYM where he bought steadfastly through the GFC and into the bottom SP, now must be sitting on a goldmine with plenty of upside to still come.

RYM got down to a forward PE of 12 in the depths of the GFC. In my opinion SUM is being priced like we are already in a GFC MK2, on a forward PE of less than 12...

winner69

26-05-2019, 12:45 PM

RYM got down to a forward PE of 12 in the depths of the GFC. In my opinion SUM is being priced like we are already in a GFC MK2, on a forward PE of less than 12...

If SUM had been around in the depths of the GFC I wonder what there PE would have been .....maybe 6 to 8?

Beagle

26-05-2019, 03:53 PM

If SUM had been around in the depths of the GFC I wonder what there PE would have been .....maybe 6 to 8?

Pointless speculating on that but the irony that SUM have been growing at a substantially higher average rate since they listed, (than RYM ever did over a 7 year period) isn't lost of me !

winner69

26-05-2019, 04:32 PM

Pointless speculating on that but the irony that SUM have been growing at a substantially higher average rate since they listed, (than RYM ever did over a 7 year period) isn't lost of me !

Both fantastic companies eh ....and just like the fantastic house in Remuera will always be worth more than a comparable fantastic house in Henderson (my Auckland geography not that good)

Doubt whether Oceania will ever be this good ...maybe good but not fantastic.

Baa_Baa

26-05-2019, 05:57 PM

Pointless speculating on that but the irony that SUM have been growing at a substantially higher average rate since they listed, (than RYM ever did over a 7 year period) isn't lost of me !

Maybe you're still shaking off that 'value trader' instinct (the force is strong), pissed at the market for undervaluing your long termer and making you feel bad for having bought in at a bit higher SP? It just doesn't matter what the SP is if you're not going to sell. I have a few underwater if that's any consolation, but also some divis to soften the blow.

If I'm not mistaken this is in your 'forever hold for income portfolio' at a tidy yield? If you want to give yourself a pick-me-up, buy a few more at these depressed prices, it brings down your average SP (obviously), but boosts your net yield and makes you feel good about contrarian value buying against market sentiment. I'm going to get some next week, and the week after that and do a Vaygor on it if I have to. OCA too as it happens.

I also try not to look at or worry about the daily share prices of these shares, they mess with your mind. Maybe a weekly chart or better still a Monthly, but even then that is measuring something that isn't important anymore, the SP, when you're probably already measuring what is important, i.e. how well your earner is earning.

:)

couta1

26-05-2019, 06:33 PM

After the RYM report yesterday and attending the SUM meeting recently, I am very satisfied the industry is trucking along just fine. The value offered with the current sp of ARV ,OCA and particularly SUM at 5.50 is a gift. In 3 to five years when all of these threads have been long forgotten the rewards for us that still hold will be very solid.
I look forward to ARVs result next Tuesday. Fully expecting a solid result and more indifference from the market. My wife and I have worked in RYM/SUM and OCA facilities and all 3 will do well long term, she said to me the other night she would choose RYM as first choice to retire to. They simply offer more to their residents than the other 2 as an overall package which includes what's offered and the overriding Philosophy coming from head office, they lead in innovation and it has to be good enough for mum shines through with the highest number of villages having 4 yr certs in the industry. From a pure care point of view including care suites OCA is on a par with RYM, SUM has a unique spin on their dementia care and staff packages but what's happening on the floor? PS-You might be interested to know that both RYM and SUM use the same Audit agency whereas OCA uses a much tougher agency so you cant directly compare the latter with the former on that front. Disc-Only hold OCA currently.

winner69

26-05-2019, 06:46 PM

My wife and I have worked in RYM/SUM and OCA facilities and all 3 will do well long term, she said to me the other night she would choose RYM as first choice to retire to. They simply offer more to their residents than the other 2 as an overall package which includes what's offered and the overriding Philosophy coming from head office, they lead in innovation and it has to be good enough for mum shines through with the highest number of villages having 4 yr certs in the industry. From a pure care point of view including care suites OCA is on a par with RYM, SUM has a unique spin on their dementia care and staff packages but what's happening on the floor? PS-You might be interested to know that both RYM and SUM use the same Audit agency whereas OCA uses a much tougher agency so you cant directly compare the latter with the former on that front. Disc-Only hold OCA currently.

Thanks for sharing your thoughts Couts

That leading in innovation (as part of company culture) is probably what drives their market leading position.

Others might copy and catch up but Ryman keeps innovating and stays ahead

That leadership has a relatively high intangible value

trader_jackson

26-05-2019, 06:58 PM

My wife and I have worked in RYM/SUM and OCA facilities and all 3 will do well long term, she said to me the other night she would choose RYM as first choice to retire to. They simply offer more to their residents than the other 2 as an overall package which includes what's offered and the overriding Philosophy coming from head office, they lead in innovation and it has to be good enough for mum shines through with the highest number of villages having 4 yr certs in the industry. From a pure care point of view including care suites OCA is on a par with RYM, SUM has a unique spin on their dementia care and staff packages but what's happening on the floor? PS-You might be interested to know that both RYM and SUM use the same Audit agency whereas OCA uses a much tougher agency so you cant directly compare the latter with the former on that front. Disc-Only hold OCA currently.

I believe ARV is 2nd highest with number of villages with 4yr certs in the industry, I've always said RYM is the gold standard in this area, but 2nd place is often forgotten (ARV), yet others further behind 2nd place always seem to have alot of hype around them
Mainly OCA

Blue Skies

26-05-2019, 08:01 PM

Thanks for those insights Couta, much appreciated.

Has anyone else noticed RYM def seems to have the best marketing by a country mile, but interestingly whereas RYM & SUM's marketing seems targeted directly at it's potential senior customers, OCA's latest TV ad seems to be pitched at adult children with aged parents. It's a different approach, who's the target market, who's the decision maker, is it the seniors themselves, or the adult kids worried about their aged parents?
Though it's expensively produced, personally I can't see too many seniors finding the OCA ad very inspiring, it's a bit of patronising isn't it? Probably formulated by some young 30 something creative, reinforcing rather thoughtless stereotypes about older people having little left to contribute.

Beagle

26-05-2019, 08:15 PM

Maybe you're still shaking off that 'value trader' instinct (the force is strong), pissed at the market for undervaluing your long termer and making you feel bad for having bought in at a bit higher SP? It just doesn't matter what the SP is if you're not going to sell. I have a few underwater if that's any consolation, but also some divis to soften the blow.

If I'm not mistaken this is in your 'forever hold for income portfolio' at a tidy yield? If you want to give yourself a pick-me-up, buy a few more at these depressed prices, it brings down your average SP (obviously), but boosts your net yield and makes you feel good about contrarian value buying against market sentiment. I'm going to get some next week, and the week after that and do a Vaygor on it if I have to. OCA too as it happens.

I also try not to look at or worry about the daily share prices of these shares, they mess with your mind. Maybe a weekly chart or better still a Monthly, but even then that is measuring something that isn't important anymore, the SP, when you're probably already measuring what is important, i.e. how well your earner is earning.

:)

Have held for many years so no issues with being underwater and I am just going to continue to take a dogged approach to holding. Might pick up SUM more in due course. A big part of me really wants to see them back to $5 so I can really open my shoulders and do a Couta1 :D

iceman

27-05-2019, 11:05 AM

My wife and I have worked in RYM/SUM and OCA facilities and all 3 will do well long term, she said to me the other night she would choose RYM as first choice to retire to. They simply offer more to their residents than the other 2 as an overall package which includes what's offered and the overriding Philosophy coming from head office, they lead in innovation and it has to be good enough for mum shines through with the highest number of villages having 4 yr certs in the industry. From a pure care point of view including care suites OCA is on a par with RYM, SUM has a unique spin on their dementia care and staff packages but what's happening on the floor? PS-You might be interested to know that both RYM and SUM use the same Audit agency whereas OCA uses a much tougher agency so you cant directly compare the latter with the former on that front. Disc-Only hold OCA currently.

Thanks couta1. Your thoughts and industry knowledge are much appreciated.

LAC

27-05-2019, 01:00 PM

My wife and I have worked in RYM/SUM and OCA facilities and all 3 will do well long term, she said to me the other night she would choose RYM as first choice to retire to. They simply offer more to their residents than the other 2 as an overall package which includes what's offered and the overriding Philosophy coming from head office, they lead in innovation and it has to be good enough for mum shines through with the highest number of villages having 4 yr certs in the industry. From a pure care point of view including care suites OCA is on a par with RYM, SUM has a unique spin on their dementia care and staff packages but what's happening on the floor? PS-You might be interested to know that both RYM and SUM use the same Audit agency whereas OCA uses a much tougher agency so you cant directly compare the latter with the former on that front. Disc-Only hold OCA currently.
Aah I thought u held a heap of RYM after coming up with Couta theory...

whome

27-05-2019, 04:26 PM

Caption this.

Beagle

27-05-2019, 04:28 PM

^^^ Go on, give me a hug and SUM love :)

whome

27-05-2019, 04:35 PM

One day all this will be yours........ at $5ps

Beagle

27-05-2019, 04:50 PM

One day all this will be yours........ at $5ps

No wonder their tail's are wagging keenly in anticipation :)

value_investor

27-05-2019, 10:34 PM

There is likely not to be any good news for a bit and we'll not know of any results until August. Interested to see how low this goes especially with sentiment at all time lows. The markets have already priced this at a very low valuation so I'm holding and hoping to accumulate some more at a nice price.

Raz

28-05-2019, 09:22 AM

Beagle

28-05-2019, 01:04 PM

Caption this.

For you're amusement.
SUM possible captions for the little boy
1. Where's my tail ?
2. When I grow up do I turn multicoloured and grow fur ?
3. These are better than having siblings
4. You can't have too many Beagle's
5. Let me in, there must be more adorably cute Beagles in there.

Okay I am bored and sick or debating which is the best road to mega wealth...suppose I have no option but to do some real work this afternoon.

winner69

04-06-2019, 08:37 AM

BlackPeter

04-06-2019, 08:51 AM

The SUM juggernaut keeps rolling into the provinces

Summerset doing more for the regions than Shane Jones

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SUM/335384/301030.pdf

Good stuff ...the Cambridge is close to the racetracks ...nice touch and a good selling point.

Good you are mentioning it. They probably should apply for a grant from the regional fund ...

Beagle

04-06-2019, 09:42 AM

The SUM juggernaut keeps rolling into the provinces

Summerset doing more for the regions than Shane Jones

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SUM/335384/301030.pdf

Good stuff ...the Cambridge is close to the racetracks ...nice touch and a good selling point.

Good adjective. SUM being priced at the moment like a no growth stock. One look at their history and another at their land bank is enough to tell you otherwise.

dreamcatcher

04-06-2019, 11:57 AM

Building units is not SUM problem but can they sell them is the question

Food4Thought

05-06-2019, 12:03 PM

Building units is not SUM problem but can they sell them is the question

Good thought Dreamcatcher

Interest rates are low. Great time to not have money in the bank seeking better returns. I feel the demand for houses will stay relatively good. A small drop here and there... but people buy what they need and want. Plenty of want and need out there.

I feel that the fitness industry is yet to make a good contribution to long term wellbeing of members and keep residents activity up and well-being in tact as much as possible.

bull....

05-06-2019, 12:07 PM

price breaking down under 5.60 resistance :scared:

winner69

06-06-2019, 09:21 AM

Today’s news ...house price inflation definitely slowing ....will put a brake on SUM earnings interest future ..the opportunistic profits of the last few years won’t continue

But as long as we get 15% earnings growth this year no worries

QV’s official national index for May is up just 2.3 percent at $686,954 from a year earlier and barely up with 0.1 percent growth for the three months ended May.

artemis

06-06-2019, 09:46 AM

I don't think a slow down (in some locations) will make much difference to take up of retirement village units. Those folk in that particular market will have plenty of equity, and also very probably standalone homes and not shoeboxes. The former scarcer and more sought after than the latter.

Trademe's latest property asking price analysis shows only three locations down year on year - Auckland down 0.5%, Taranaki down 0.1%, Marlborough down 2.5%. Another data input into the mix.

A sustained price downturn will impact unit sale prices and profits though. By how much - who knows.

https://property.trademe.co.nz/market-insights/property-price-index/wellington-property-market-runs-hot-as-buyers-look-further-afield/

dreamcatcher

06-06-2019, 02:58 PM

With interest rates at all time lows one wonders why people are so divided regarding housing market rising/falling.. agents tell me market is difficult. Reevaluation on retirement stocks until direction is known reduces ones chances of capital loss with wait and see approach. SUM needs rising market to book profit from their landbanking. If building cost rise and property falls where does that leave ...........(not just) SUM

Disc hold retirement stocks

winner69

10-06-2019, 03:44 PM

couta1

10-06-2019, 04:09 PM

SUM share price just can’t seem to revert to 50% of RYM share price ...even with RYM doing its best to make it easier

Seems market is quite content where they have relatively priced all in the sector ...maybe the market has good reason to (and even quite efficient) That reversion to the mean is not a force to be messed with aye winner, whoops I mean reversion below the mean in SUMs case.

winner69

10-06-2019, 04:27 PM

That reversion to the mean is not a force to be messed with aye winner, whoops I mean reversion below the mean in SUMs case.

I think one can revert both ways

Being below 50% gives a wee bit of hope for sum investors

Lewylewylewy

10-06-2019, 06:46 PM

Looking at property data recently, I'd say prices are falling. There are bargains being grabbed, and pricing methods are changing from auction to priced.

Baa_Baa

10-06-2019, 08:14 PM

Looking at property data recently, I'd say prices are falling. There are bargains being grabbed, and pricing methods are changing from auction to priced.

Try this, go back as far as the chart lets you, maybe one could cherry pick a brief period when median house price sales declined but whoa, look at that trend! If our stocks reliably followed that trend for the same time period we'd all be rich. https://www.interest.co.nz/charts/real-estate/median-price-reinz

I'm happy risking the small risk that property prices materially decline, despite recent favourable property market conditions like super low interest rates and continued CPI relaxing etc. suggesting otherwise. All I really want to see from SUM (while I'm accumulating these low SP anomalies) is better sales performance.

I'm still grappling with their intention to reduce development and stop "headlining" development as imho that's a fudge to improve the numbers compensating for sustained declining sales performance over quite a few years. In any event, I console myself with accumulation opportunities at really good value prices.

Lewylewylewy

10-06-2019, 09:58 PM

Agree, but watching the house prices might indicate that sum prices could become more of a bargain.

winner69

12-06-2019, 09:12 AM

Looking at property data recently, I'd say prices are falling. There are bargains being grabbed, and pricing methods are changing from auction to priced.

Don’t worry lew, house prices will be higher by this time next year

Not by the 10% plus increases of the last few years but still up a reasonable amount (at least 5%)

Ggcc

14-06-2019, 09:41 AM

Hell of a big transaction just took place $52,000,000??

sb9

14-06-2019, 10:22 AM

Hell of a big transaction just took place $52,000,000??

And crossed at $5.30 a piece :eek2:

winner69

14-06-2019, 10:51 AM

House prices on way up again

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/193c90a0/house-price-inflation-ticked-up-a-tad-in-may.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=House%20price%20inflation%20ticked%20 up%20a%20tad%20in%20May&utm_content=House%20price%20inflation%20ticked%20u p%20a%20tad%20in%20May+CID_1b4d3fe2c1ac69a27141049 ab9ac99bb&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle193c90a0house-price-inflation-ticked-up-a-tad-in-mayhtml

percy

14-06-2019, 10:59 AM

dreamcatcher

14-06-2019, 11:44 AM

Extract from "House prices on way uo" suggests jury is still out regarding property a bit of positive/negative. This mornings large crossing of almost 10M @ $5.30 appears someone has heaps to sell and could destroy a bit more capital for newly SUM holders?

"However, other indicators suggest the market remains somewhat sluggish. The number of houses sold across the country fell 7.8 percent to 7,263 compared with sales in May last year with Auckland sales down 21.8 percent to 2,462.

And the number of days it took to sell a house in May stretched by three days to 41 nationally and by five days to 45 in Auckland compared with May last year."

minimoke

14-06-2019, 12:15 PM

From 12 April

And todays pictureAnd time for today picture.

Lewylewylewy

14-06-2019, 02:59 PM

Houses are up vs last year, but imo look bad compared with more recent data. Note: i only looked away the Wellington region

minimoke

14-06-2019, 03:19 PM

Houses are up vs last year, but imo look bad compared with more recent data. Note: i only looked away the Wellington regionMost recent data (as per picture above) wellington up 5.4%

allfromacell

14-06-2019, 04:04 PM

Most recent data (as per picture above) wellington up 5.4%

The HPI has Wellington City up a massive 6% on May last year which is pretty fantastic. What one defines as ‘recent’ varies but the past 3 months don’t look too flash for Wellington City (down -3.2%) which is nothing too concerning given the cities recent increases.

It’s nice to see Auckland City’s HPI recover of last months drop and rebound up 1% but still down -3.7% on May 2018. There really is no point using the median when the HPI is available and as shown by the charts provided by REINZ it is a much less volatile metric.

https://www.reinz.co.nz/Media/Default/Statistic%20Documents/2019/Residential/May/REINZ%20Monthly%20HPI%20Report%20-%20May%202019.pdf

minimoke

14-06-2019, 04:22 PM

The HPI has Wellington City up a massive 6% on May last year which is pretty fantastic. What one defines as ‘recent’ varies but the past 3 months don’t look too flash for Wellington City (down -3.2%) which is nothing too concerning given the cities recent increases.

Property isn't like shares where we can look at quarterly results and see subsequent swings. Property is a long term thing - a year on year variance is the shortest time frame we should worry about. Anything less is subject to the vagaries of an illiquid market and one or two properties in that market disproportionatly affecting the median or average.

peat

14-06-2019, 07:48 PM

Hell of a big transaction just took place $52,000,000??

And crossed at $5.30 a piece :eek2:

Hopefully the market will start to look forward again,and when SUM's sp downtrend reverses, it will be time to buy back in.

in my experience , quite frequently the crossing of a significant parcel eventuates in a trend reversal

Aarrgghh

15-06-2019, 06:05 AM

More importantly, what the hell is going on in Gisborne? up 54%? Whole region going long on the legalisation of Marijuana?

Lewylewylewy

15-06-2019, 09:14 AM

Lol yup.

Possibly catch up by investors looking at other locations? I haven't bothered investigating that data.

I wonder if sum can keep increasing underlying earnings throughout these next few years?

percy

15-06-2019, 09:44 AM

More importantly, what the hell is going on in Gisborne? up 54%? Whole region going long on the legalisation of Marijuana?

I read a recent article on ASX listed NZ company, STG Straker Translations, who moved their whole business from Auckland to Gisborne.
Perhaps that is part of the reason.

artemis

15-06-2019, 12:23 PM

More importantly, what the hell is going on in Gisborne? up 54%? Whole region going long on the legalisation of Marijuana?

It is quite a small market, so more susceptible to outliers. REINZ median price for Gisborne shows a big spike in May $358k (April) to $440k. Looks like an anomaly. Trademe property analysis (asking prices, big volume) to 30 April shows Gisborne up 20.4% yoy, so yes some big rises.

Lewylewylewy

15-06-2019, 04:21 PM

Median average should just about get rid of the outliers. Mean average includes outliers.

winner69

16-06-2019, 09:42 AM

In case you didn’t see it on the Oceania thread

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/property/113453987/house-prices-nationwide-are-tipped-to-soar-by-20-per-cent-over-the-next-four-years

No worries

dreamcatcher

16-06-2019, 12:56 PM

In case you didn’t see it on the Oceania thread

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/property/113453987/house-prices-nationwide-are-tipped-to-soar-by-20-per-cent-over-the-next-four-years

No worries

Conflicting comments under picture suggests a good time to WAIT/WATCH market. Brokers appear underweight on retirement - property stocks but either way .......... No worries

Quote "An ASB survey shows New Zealanders have low expectations of property prices."

Vaygor1

16-06-2019, 04:55 PM

Conflicting comments under picture suggests a good time to WAIT/WATCH market. Brokers appear underweight on retirement - property stocks but either way .......... No worries

Quote "An ASB survey shows New Zealanders have low expectations of property prices."

Not sure about any conflict there..depends how you read it... "An ASB survey shows New Zealanders have low expectations of property prices [remaining stagnant]".

But I would think 20% over 4 years ... or more to the point 18.3% which is stated in the article is definitely not 'soaring' as the headline states, but rather a bit under the historical norm.

5.8% per annum compounding equals 18.3% over 4 years.'

NZ's historical average annual increase in housing looks to be higher than 5.8% per annum....

10615

fish

16-06-2019, 05:19 PM

[QUOTE=Vaygor1;763074]Not sure about any conflict there..depends how you read it... "An ASB survey shows New Zealanders have low expectations of property prices [remaining stagnant]".

But I would think 20% over 4 years ... or more to the point 18.3% which is stated in the article is definitely not 'soaring' as the headline states, but rather a bit under the historical norm.

5.8% per annum compounding equals 18.3% over 4 years.'

Try doing the maths again

Baa_Baa

16-06-2019, 05:46 PM

Try doing the maths again

Oh you're mean, lol. :sleep:

Compound Interest

5.80%

Year 0
$ 1,000

Year 1
$ 1,058
5.8%

Year 2
$ 1,119
11.9%

Year 3
$ 1,184
18.4%

Year 4
$ 1,253
25.3%

dreamcatcher

16-06-2019, 07:29 PM

Not sure about any conflict there..depends how you read it... "An ASB survey shows New Zealanders have low expectations of property prices [remaining stagnant]".

My interpretation was Property Rising the other 'Stagnant but you are correct not quite the opposite .......... imo WAIT/WATCH

Lot of holders capital already destroyed by SUM if you purchased a year back in the last $8 pump-n-dump

Vaygor1

16-06-2019, 09:01 PM

[QUOTE=Vaygor1;763074]... Try doing the maths again

Hahaha.. Dead right!
I did it over only 3 years .. still have the quick-and-dirty spreadsheet open..

10618

..so I added the 4th...

10619

... so only 4.3% compounding per annum equates to 18.3% over 4 years... makes the 'soaring' part of the headline even more alarmist.

Vaygor1

16-06-2019, 09:27 PM

My interpretation was Property Rising the other 'Stagnant but you are correct not quite the opposite .......... imo WAIT/WATCH

Lot of holders capital already destroyed by SUM if you purchased a year back in the last $8 pump-n-dump

I have a relatively small shareholding in SUM compared to my other retirement-sector holding (RYM). Bought SUM for $4.75 at the very end of Oct 2016.
Happy enough to hold for now.

The rapid increasing numbers in NZ and Victoria requiring age-care from here-on-in for the next 30 years gives any retirement stock a lot of upside potential to mitigate other downside factors which may eventuate.

10622

For 80+, it looks like 2023 is where the real fun begins but bring it forward 5 years to 2018 where the 75+ age group are going into retirement villages en mass and things are looking good as of today.

winner69

17-06-2019, 10:15 AM

My interpretation was Property Rising the other 'Stagnant but you are correct not quite the opposite .......... imo WAIT/WATCH

Lot of holders capital already destroyed by SUM if you purchased a year back in the last $8 pump-n-dump

That’s the way it goes eh dreamie

Buy at extremely high valuations - short/medium term shareholder returns generally low/below par/negative

Buy at low multiples (cheap) expected shareholder returns generally above average —- NOW IS ONE OF THOSE TIMES

BlackPeter

17-06-2019, 10:25 AM

That’s the way it goes eh dreamie

Buy at extremely high valuations - short/medium term shareholder returns generally low/below par/negative

Buy at low multiples (cheap) expected shareholder returns generally above average —- NOW IS ONE OF THOSE TIMES

Yep, always more fun to buy cheap and sell dear than to do it the other way around :t_up:

winner69

17-06-2019, 11:58 AM

Okay, all aboard, pack up your suitcases and jump about this little journey with the Dog.
First lets time travel back 6 years to the time when the annual meeting was held in early 2013 and have a look at a snapshot of how things were as at 31/12/2012 and journey forward from there to 31/12/2018.
Underlying profit $15.2m underlying eps 7.15 cps, NTA $1.10 Net Assets $249m PE 43
Underlying profit $98.6m underlying eps 44.65 cps NTA $4.38 Net Assets $978.9m PE 12.5

But wait I hear the naysayers insist, this growth was over a period of unprecedented growth in real estate prices in N.Z. and cannot possibly be replicated going forward ! Well no I don't think so either. Rather than net assets nearly quadrupling I expect they will simply double or thereabouts.

Auckland is the problem, most of the rest of the country is chugging along just fine.
So what are SUM doing to recalibrate their business model to mitigate this Auckland risk ?
1. They're not buying more land in Auckland at present.
2. They diversifying their villages out into the provinces.
As at 31 December 2018 they held land for development for enough units that exceeds the total units they have on hand already !
Since then they have acquired even more land in the provinces https://www.nzx.com/announcements/332408

So before we extrapolate forward where they might be in six years time from now lets have a little recap on yesterday's meeting.
Very happy with the calibre of the board and senior management. Their track record of very strong underlying eps growth since listing on the NZX is to the best of my knowledge unmatched by any other company including the much revered Ryman.

In a nutshell they recalibrating their business plan with more focus on single level units in the provinces going forward. They will be offering a much wider spread of product over a wider geographical area.

Build target this year is a case of moderating the build rate so as to ensure there isn't an oversupply of stock.
After the meeting Julian advised me:-
Effectively two development blocks that were going to be very late stage FY19 have been shifted into early FY20.
He is confident of underlying profit growth in FY 19 despite the lower build rate this year - remember that underlying profit is based upon sales numbers not build numbers.
Sales last year were just 339 so its quite possible they will be higher in FY19.
Resales are at a historically low level for the number of units on hand.

The business model works well and has been constantly refined and improved over the years. I have gone to every annual meeting since early 2013 covering FY12 year and talked with Julian and the directors afterwards every time. I recall the days when the development margin was just 12% for the FY12 year.

Now lets journey even further back to the bad old days of the GFC. What did we learn from RYM during that time.
1. Their underlying profit improved every year throughout the GFC.
2. The lowest forward PE the company ever traded on was from memory just 12.

Where are we now then in terms of SUM's metrics.
First lets have a look at NTA, because that forms the building blocks of the companies ability to drive underlying profit.
FY12 NTA $1.10 - share price $3.08 at the time of the annual meeting covering this year's operations and historical PE was 43.
NTA has improved from that to ~ $1.20, ~ $1.50, $1.89, $2.49, $3.47 and $4.38 as at 31/12/2018 and I believe it will be just over $5.00 by 31/12/2019.
Fact - Every year I have attended AGM's the share price to NTA has been a minimum of double the NTA and at times nearly triple, (apart from yesterday when it was just 1.28 times NTA).

I believe the NTA will be ~ $5.20 at year end and the shares are extremely well supported at that level technically.
The historic PE has come down from 43, to 33.9, 30.7, 25.4, 20, 18.7 and was just 12.5 yesterday.
I am forecasting approx. ~ $110m underlying profit for FY19, underlying eps of ~ 50 cps. Forward PE just 11.2 at $5.60.

I think this is very close to a bottom for SUM.
Looking forward I expect more like RYMesque type growth in underlying earnings going forward as the business has been through a super normal 7 years of growth and is more mature. Extremely favourable long term demographics and a well proven development model concentrating primarily on their well proven single level developments going forward mostly in the provinces, (along with strongly growing resales in future years capturing previous years huge IFRS revaluation profits) should see them able to sustainably grow underlying eps at circa 15% per annum on average. 15% compound growth as we know doubles underlying earnings every 5 years.

Six years from now I think SUM's underlying earnings will be somewhere in the vicinity of $1 per share and even on a somewhat normal but quite conservative PE for a company growing earnings at this rate of say 15 this should see the share price in the region of $15, 5-6 years hence. I think the shares are currently at, or very very close to the bottom and the downside risk is very minimal and extremely modest compared to the upside potential over the medium term

Finally the 350 v 600 build rate thing which has seemed to cause some confusion.
600 build rate was always a 3 year target, up from 450 last year. As mentioned earlier late stage development blocks from FY19 and being shifted into FY 20 for planning and other reasons. I think the build rate for FY20 should be somewhere in the 450-500 zone and FY21 an uplift from there.
FY22 could see it in the 550-600 zone as their well proven business development model is rolled out through a wide range of locations in regional N.Z.

I think SUM makes a very good case for itself as a value growth company trading on compelling metrics.
I have 100% confidence in the board and senior management.

I think we should see about a 15% increase in the share price in the year ahead consistent with earnings growth, (I think the PE has already bottomed out)
By way of independent cross check of my expectations the average analyst 12 month price target is $7.00. https://www.marketscreener.com/SUMMERSET-GROUP-HOLDINGS-10089438/consensus/

Happy holder and happy to add SUM more on any more irrational weakness.

Looks like Beagle has been BANNED

In the fullness of time we’ll see whether he was spot on with his outlook ....and a $7 plus share price

777

17-06-2019, 12:18 PM

Looks like Beagle has been BANNED

In the fullness of time we’ll see whether he was spot on with his outlook ....and a $7 plus share price

And here was thinking he had gone skiing with couta.

davflaws

17-06-2019, 12:41 PM

Anything less is subject to the vagaries of an illiquid market and one or two properties in that market disproportionatly affecting the median or average.

A few very big sales disproportionately affect the average (mean), but shouldn't change the median

Ggcc

17-06-2019, 02:23 PM

Looks like Beagle has been BANNED

In the fullness of time we’ll see whether he was spot on with his outlook ....and a $7 plus share price
Which post got him banned?

MauroNZ

17-06-2019, 02:56 PM

Looks like Beagle has been BANNED

In the fullness of time we’ll see whether he was spot on with his outlook ....and a $7 plus share price

I was wondering not seeing any post from him in the last two weeks.

trader_jackson

17-06-2019, 05:05 PM

A fresh 52 week low today, and below my buy price of $5.45
Luckily I pulled my buy price when it was obvious things are not plain sailing at SUM.

sb9

17-06-2019, 05:12 PM

in my experience , quite frequently the crossing of a significant parcel eventuates in a trend reversal

May not be in this case perhaps....with today's close of $5.44.

Vaygor1

17-06-2019, 08:35 PM

I was wondering not seeing any post from him in the last two weeks.

Beagle looks like he's gone completely from the Member List.
Refer 'Community' pull down menu above, then click 'Member List'.

Alphabetically, gone from B.
Checking his old name out, alphabetically gone from R.
If sorting by reputation, gone completely.

Anyone know what's happened?

Jay

17-06-2019, 10:03 PM

If you get banned you don't show up on the member list while it is in place I think V1

percy

17-06-2019, 10:15 PM

Beagle looks like he's gone completely from the Member List.
Refer 'Community' pull down menu above, then click 'Member List'.

Alphabetically, gone from B.
Checking his old name out, alphabetically gone from R.
If sorting by reputation, gone completely.

Anyone know what's happened?
I think this is what happened.
He was not happy with the way the thread "Your $1mil inheritance etc" was going.
As he started the thread, he thought he was entitled to delete it.[I thought that was the case too].
Seems STMOD appears to have decided otherwise.
This led to his disagreement with STMOD,which led ultimately to him, I think leaving ST, then being banned.

minimoke

17-06-2019, 10:26 PM

I gather he left this forum. A few days later he was banned for some conversation with the Mods who consequently binned all his posts and stripped him of his membership. A sad loss!

iceman

18-06-2019, 06:59 AM

Jerry

18-06-2019, 07:54 AM

A very sad loss to this community. Two things seem over the top.
1) The instigator having the right to delete all posts and to close a thread.
2) The deletion of all past wisdom from the public domain when someone is banned.

RTM

18-06-2019, 09:12 AM

Yes that is a sad loss. It is a really concerning issue that posters here enter discussions and debates in good faith and often lead to a very interesting sharing of often very different ideas and approaches. To then delete all posts from posters, often written over several years, whether they do it themselves or STMOD does it, undermines the whole exercise of having a forum like this. Sadly we have seen a few of these situation in the last 2-3 years.
I will miss the Beagle, but also acknowledge the ref did need to give him the yellow card on occasions, but a permanent red, whoever decided that (I fully acknowledge it may have been Beagle himself), seems over the top.

Well summed up Iceman, completely agree. While I did get tired of the repetition at times when he got a Bee in his Bonnet over something, (e,g, Heartland) and I didn't always agree with his perspective, he certainly contributed a lot to the forum.
A real shame he is no longer part of it.

IAK

18-06-2019, 09:18 AM

fish

18-06-2019, 09:20 AM

Well summed up Iceman, completely agree. While I did get tired of the repetition at times when he got a Bee in his Bonnet over something, (e,g, Heartland) and I didn't always agree with his perspective, he certainly contributed a lot to the forum.
A real shame he is no longer part of it.

Fully agree.
This goes against important principles of open justice and free speech

macduffy

18-06-2019, 10:09 AM

Well summed up Iceman, completely agree. While I did get tired of the repetition at times when he got a Bee in his Bonnet over something, (e,g, Heartland) and I didn't always agree with his perspective, he certainly contributed a lot to the forum.
A real shame he is no longer part of it.

I agree. A big loss to the forum, not only for his contributions but also for the discussion he "provoked" from other contributors. We are the poorer for losing that.

MauroNZ

18-06-2019, 10:13 AM

Yes that is a sad loss. It is a really concerning issue that posters here enter discussions and debates in good faith and often lead to a very interesting sharing of often very different ideas and approaches. To then delete all posts from posters, often written over several years, whether they do it themselves or STMOD does it, undermines the whole exercise of having a forum like this. Sadly we have seen a few of these situation in the last 2-3 years.
I will miss the Beagle, but also acknowledge the ref did need to give him the yellow card on occasions, but a permanent red, whoever decided that (I fully acknowledge it may have been Beagle himself), seems over the top.

Well said Iceman. I believe this happens in many forums of a wide range of topics. I used to participate in motorcycle forums back in my country and man the topics will branch out infinitely. However what I see very common among people is the need to be right and this will turn into a passionate debate leaving people walking on the edges.

I personally I'm here to learn as I understand investing as a very long term learning, even if I can improve a lot my knowledge I wouldn't strongly hold my thoughts but this is only me.

At the end of the day we all have good and not so good qualities.

bull....

18-06-2019, 10:17 AM

beagle gone? that bad i enjoyed seeing him get upset when someone didnt agree with him lol

minimoke

18-06-2019, 10:26 AM

. However what I see very common among people is the need to be right and this will turn into a passionate debate leaving people walking on the edges.
.It also seems common among some people (and certainly some posters here) to shut debate down and get people banned if they cant "win" a discussion.

I agree - we are all here to learn - but sometimes we don't like the lessons on offer. Thats no reason to hound a person off the boards.

We should be open to all views and learn to use our own filters. Banning (and the deletion of all posts) is a very very sad state of affairs.

BlackCross

18-06-2019, 10:45 AM

Totally agree Iceman, however, I see he is quite active on the other forum.

I didn't know there was another NZ forun for share investors. How do I find it please?

minimoke

18-06-2019, 10:54 AM

I didn't know there was another NZ forun for share investors. How do I find it please?
If you dream of having a fat portfolio you'll be on the right track

Bjauck

18-06-2019, 11:14 AM

It also seems common among some people (and certainly some posters here) to shut debate down and get people banned if they cant "win" a discussion.

I agree - we are all here to learn - but sometimes we don't like the lessons on offer. Thats no reason to hound a person off the boards.

We should be open to all views and learn to use our own filters. Banning (and the deletion of all posts) is a very very sad state of affairs.

I agree. It is great to have discussion with posters with differing opinions and who look at issues from different angles and perspectives. The forum will be the poorer from his disappearance to the Sharetrader Salt Mines.

Blue Skies

19-06-2019, 12:17 AM

Jay

19-06-2019, 08:42 AM

To be fair, Beagles posts prior to being banned haven't been deleted as has been suggested here (unless they have been reinstated).

Whatever happened is unfortunate & will miss his contributions to the forum.
2nd that.
Only the thread about the $1m inheritance, it seems if you start a thread them want to delete your first post the whole thread goes - software issue
His posts are still showing in this thread and sum others :-)

minimoke

19-06-2019, 09:08 AM

..........

fish

19-06-2019, 10:14 AM

So he wasnt at fault? Weird how a tech issue can lead to you being banned. Makes sense. One poster here can liken other posters to genocidal mass murderers and avoids banishment - maybe the software doesn't pick up those kind of posts. Mods certainly dont.

In which case you would think he should get an apology and reinstatement.
I will have to start using the alternative site as I want to read his posts

dubya

19-06-2019, 10:24 AM

In which case you would think he should get an apology and reinstatement.
I will have to start using the alternative site as I want to read his posts

Yep. Same here. His analysis on some of the threads I usually read (namely the healthcare stocks) was absolutely first class.
I hope whatever actually happened which resulted in him being banned can be resolved. His opinions are sorely missed.
Come back Beagle :mad ;: :mad ;:

minimoke

19-06-2019, 10:35 AM

..........

Maverick

19-06-2019, 11:56 AM

oldtech

19-06-2019, 01:01 PM

I expected a SSH notice about last Fridays 50mill sale by now.
Since there is no flood of shares onto the market in the mean time I'm picking it's a shuffle between instos.nothing to see here officer.
But it has created a temporary opportunity to get some ultra cheap. Can't see how one can not make some ood coin at this price. Won't even have to wait long.

I'm tempted to agree with you, and even more tempted to leap in ... but I still can't shake the nagging doubt that this is still in a very nasty downtrend.

RTM

19-06-2019, 01:04 PM

I'm tempted to agree with you, and even more tempted to leap in ... but I still can't shake the nagging doubt that this is still in a very nasty downtrend.

It is less than two years ago that I topped up at 486. It could get there again. So I am also sitting on my hands.
Time will tell whether I am right or not.

clearasmud

19-06-2019, 01:38 PM

In which case you would think he should get an apology and reinstatement.
I will have to start using the alternative site as I want to read his posts

What alternative site?

Jay

19-06-2019, 01:51 PM

What alternative site?
see post 7981 of mm's

clearasmud

19-06-2019, 07:01 PM

Fat prophets?

SilverBack

19-06-2019, 09:57 PM

Fat prophets?

No, wrong country. Fat Portfolio.

clearasmud

20-06-2019, 12:14 AM

Thank you Silverback.

bull....

21-06-2019, 07:24 AM

BlackPeter

21-06-2019, 09:01 AM

The aged care royal commission has uncovered some shocking stories about the treatment of older Australians

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-20/retirement-village-residents-unhappy-about-complex-contracts-fee/11224072?section=business

As usual - the story is absolutely irrelevant for SUM. Did you even bother to read it? It is about a lady living in some Australian retirement village and trying to sell her unit on the free market and complaining that there is nobody interested.

Ms Brand chose a real estate agent working for the village managers, Lendlease, to run a sales campaign for her two-bedroom unit, which was initially on the market for $880,000.

But after 15 months on the market, and a seven-month period with no inspections at all, she is frustrated with Lendlease and says the stress of trying to sell her unit is having an impact on her health.

Now - I have no clue what contractual agreement she would have with the to me unknown Australian village provider, but it has clearly nothing to do with Summerset or with the right to occupy contracts retirement villages use on this side of the ditch. No Summerset resident would need to (or could) market their unit if they want to get out. They would return it to the manager and get their capital minus DMF back.

I think you should start a "ramp down Australian retirement villages" in the ASX forum thread instead of wasting everybody's time with irrelevant and misleading information on this and other NZ retirement village threads.

bull....

21-06-2019, 09:47 AM

As usual - the story is absolutely irrelevant for SUM. Did you even bother to read it? It is about a lady living in some Australian retirement village and trying to sell her unit on the free market and complaining that there is nobody interested.

Now - I have no clue what contractual agreement she would have with the to me unknown Australian village provider, but it has clearly nothing to do with Summerset or with the right to occupy contracts retirement villages use on this side of the ditch. No Summerset resident would need to (or could) market their unit if they want to get out. They would return it to the manager and get their capital minus DMF back.

I think you should start a "ramp down Australian retirement villages" in the ASX forum thread instead of wasting everybody's time with irrelevant and misleading information on this and other NZ retirement village threads.

it was only an article of interest for who ever wanted to read it , some of which is relevant to NZ and is applicaple to all retirement stocks the fact it was placed here was mainly because it was the first thread i found.

but since you mentioned down ramping heres some facts lol

met ytd - 20%
sum - 17%
oca - 2%

arv + 5.5%
rym +7.5%

so we have a clear decrepancy in performance in these stocks the top 3 are a disaster esp met and SUM and arv and rym not to bad ytd.

I would be more interested in understanding why sum and met are performing so bad wouldnt you? and we dont need your ramping like beagle did on this stock both of you obviously dont know why its performing badly.

BlackPeter

21-06-2019, 10:49 AM

it was only an article of interest for who ever wanted to read it , some of which is relevant to NZ and is applicaple to all retirement stocks the fact it was placed here was mainly because it was the first thread i found.

but since you mentioned down ramping heres some facts lol

met ytd - 20%
sum - 17%
oca - 2%

arv + 5.5%
rym +7.5%

so we have a clear decrepancy in performance in these stocks the top 3 are a disaster esp met and SUM and arv and rym not to bad ytd.

I would be more interested in understanding why sum and met are performing so bad wouldnt you? and we dont need your ramping like beagle did on this stock both of you obviously dont know why its performing badly.

Your emotionally charged article is irrelevant for SUM, and the random numbers you used are just that.
I am not surprised.

Here is a five year comparison between SUM (blue line) and RYM (yellowish).

10632

Who comes now out as the better one? And while 5 years is a random comparison as well, it is more relevant for long term investors ...

And if you look at the big picture ...

10631

... than SUM as well as most of the other contenders you listed had an amazing run over the years - and there is no reason why this should change in the foreseeable future.

SUM has a historic backward PE of 13.6 and a historic CAGR of above 20. These are facts.

Forward PE (but yes, forecasts involved) is below 9.

I am pointing out facts. You are fear mongering using irrelevant but emotionally charged information about individual experiences of customers from unrelated companies using different contracts.

Why is the SUM SP currently somewhat softer? Quite easy ... the whole industry is down compared to recent peaks (RYM down about 20% compared to its peak in August 2018, SUM down about 30% compared to its peak in July 2018). The market might have just pushed the industry in July / August last year somewhat above fair value.

Experienced investors (and even some traders - LOL) would know that this is quite normal market behaviour - same as the in my view "undershoot" we have as a reaction to above.

On top of that - punters probably still worried about the unfounded doomsday prophecies related to the property market (didn't you help to spread them as well?). The continued onslaught of irrelevant smear stories coming from the Australian boulevard press describing sad stories about individuals in Australian retirement villages who wanted to eat their cake and have it, but apparently did not understood the contracts they signed might not help either.

On top of that - share markets obviously do what you would expect a system driven by thousands of irrational but greed and fear driven beings to do ... behave rational and predictable. LOL.