NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[winner69]

Half Gone by Jeremy Leggett is also a compelling read.

Leggett has had quite a life .... as the cover says 'Few people could make the transition from geologist to oil consultant to chief scientest for Greenpeace and then to the boss Britains largest solar energy company'

Focus on running out of oil far sooner than we think and burning what's left will warm the planet to catastrophic levels ... they are connected issues eh

[winner69]

Same here,
it sounds like an important book, but there seems to be little demand for it (otherwise Whitcoulls and other NZ bookshps would sell it). I'v essen it on Amazon, but the postage is more than the price of the book. If anyone knows of anyone in NZ who sells it let us know.

Looks like you can get it here for $29

http://www.fishpond.co.nz/product_info.php?ref=393&products_id=3570121&affilia
te_banner_id=1

Plenty of books available on the topic .... the end is near
http://www.binary.co.nz/peakoil.html

[peterb]

i read a article in weakend news paper regarding oil sands in north america,( i think alberta) briefly they say there is enough to supply USA NEEDS FOR 25 YRS OR MORE and costs aprox $us 37/per ton to extract, so whats the hangUP please give me more info on this-- or is this the yanks wishfull thinking

yanks wishful thinking. A large proportion of it can't be recovered with net energy gain. At the moment one of the processes they are using is using natural gas to create steam to soften it up - this is a process that is very wasteful of energy but can be done because gas hasn't realised the prices of oil. Some of it, still quite a significant resource, can be recovered with net energy gain, but the sort of thing you are reading is pie in the sky.

[Mick100]

Same here,
it sounds like an important book, but there seems to be little demand for it (otherwise Whitcoulls and other NZ bookshps would sell it). I'v essen it on Amazon, but the postage is more than the price of the book. If anyone knows of anyone in NZ who sells it let us know.

this book was published years ago - it should be available in libraries
go to your local library and check the shelf

If it's not available ask them to do an inter-library search
Most of the libraries in NZ hve access to each others catalouges via computer - even the university libraries are connected to this network

I'm sure one or more library will have the book available
It costs me $5 for inter-library loan books

PS there are many very good books on peak oil. "twilight in the desert" is only one of them - it is specifically about saudi arabia - I have read a number of books that I would consider give a good picture of the consequences of peak oil
-the party's over, by richard heinburg
-the oil factor, by stephen leeb
- blood and oil, by michael klare
- a thousand barrels a second, by peter tertzakian

[winner69]

this book was published years ago - it should be available in libraries
go to your local library and check the shelf




Mick -- libraries are a forgotten source of info eh

Wgtn Public Library has 3 copies available at the moment

[bermuda]

bermuda, you've recommended Twilight in the Desert a number of times. Do you know who stocks it? I haven't been able to find a copy.

Any good bookseller should stock it.

An essential read.

If you cant get a copy (and I am sure you will find one,), post me and I will send it to you for a month.

[Mick100]

Mick -- libraries are a forgotten source of info eh



Seems so winner

It's still the first place I go when looking for a book - spose I'm showing my age.

I'v found that i can get most books with the exception of books that have been published recently (last 12 months) via the local library.
.

[temptation]

It seems to me that "New Zealand Oil and Gas" is a terrible name for the company and could prevent the share price from ever achieving true value. If ever the men with the money want to make a serious offer for NZO, they will be put off by the knowledge that the press will go wild with headlines like "Chinese steal New Zealand Oil and Gas", Winston Peters will get on his high horse, and the government will block the sale .

If we were to change the name to something like "Australasian Resource Supply and Exploration" we would have no such problem. The headline would be "Chinese Pinch ****" and noone would care!

[manxman]

It seems to me that "New Zealand Oil and Gas" is a terrible name for the company and could prevent the share price from ever achieving true value. If ever the men with the money want to make a serious offer for NZO, they will be put off by the knowledge that the press will go wild with headlines like "Chinese steal New Zealand Oil and Gas", Winston Peters will get on his high horse, and the government will block the sale .

If we were to change the name to something like "Australasian Resource Supply and Exploration" we would have no such problem. The headline would be "Chinese Pinch ****" and noone would care!

You could have named it "Tony R & Co" a while back and the headline would have read "Chinese Pinch Bums" but somehow the mood has mellowed. There just doesn't seem to be the genuine hostility to management which used to characterise this site. Somehow the management has been forgiven all its faults now that it is the top performer on the NZX. At least McDunk hasn't been bought off.

Seriously, why attract the attention of buyers? The company has adequate funding, and the serious oilers just want to make their money by getting a share of the next strike. This eagerness to sell out to overseas interests does not serve New Zealand well.

Mx

[digger]

It seems to me that "New Zealand Oil and Gas" is a terrible name for the company and could prevent the share price from ever achieving true value. If ever the men with the money want to make a serious offer for NZO, they will be put off by the knowledge that the press will go wild with headlines like "Chinese steal New Zealand Oil and Gas", Winston Peters will get on his high horse, and the government will block the sale .

If we were to change the name to something like "Australasian Resource Supply and Exploration" we would have no such problem. The headline would be "Chinese Pinch ****" and noone would care!

What you say might be correct if you are in for the short term and want a quick buck.If on the otherhand it is so valuable to the overseas buyers it is too cheap and if we hold out the value in time will be ours. The dairy company could have sold out hunderds of time on this sort of thinking. Also consider that the richest country in the world is fast becoming the Chinese and you can not buy property or companies there.
NewZealand oil and gas forever. The value is coming through and the dividends and SP appreciation will follow. The Kupe drill results i understand will be released this week.By weeks end we may well be thankful we still own the company.

[tim23]

Quite right - you think a takeover at say $2.00 would be exciting but for about 5 minutes, ask Southern Petroleum share holders how they feel!

[clips]

is in the chch main public libary... well actually i've got it out at the moment
will be back there soon.

[Mick100]

You could have named it "Tony R & Co" a while back and the headline would have read "Chinese Pinch Bums" but somehow the mood has mellowed. There just doesn't seem to be the genuine hostility to management which used to characterise this site. Somehow the management has been forgiven all its faults now that it is the top performer on the NZX. At least McDunk hasn't been bought off.



I think TR and co deserved some flak the way they were hyping things up a couple of yrs ago - talk of a potentially huge gas find and then relinquishing the permit (forget the name) a couple of months later is a good example of the way these guys were carrying on. There strategy seems to have changed from one of "all hype" to one of "no hype at all" - I'm much happier with the current strategy

[Lion]

And I've just put a hold on the only other copy in the Christchurch libraries system, clips :)

Mangatoa, wasn't it Mick?

[airedale]

Yes, Mick, trillions of cu. metres of gas, wasn't it? No wonder Sharebroker and his aliases got stuck in.

[Nitaa]

I think TR and co deserved some flak the way they were hyping things up a couple of yrs ago - talk of a potentially huge gas find and then relinquishing the permit (forget the name) a couple of months later is a good example of the way these guys were carrying on. There strategy seems to have changed from one of "all hype" to one of "no hype at all" - I'm much happier with the current strategyBack then they had very strong motive. The wanted the OC's excercised. It was that time i became very anti TR and still hold that view today. He has passed his used by date and the sooner he gets right out of nzo the better. In the mean time he must have something in the vicinity of $20m tied up with nzo and ppp, either directly or indirectly. Anyway enough of him.

I am a big fan of David, he seems a down to earth man with far more integrity that others. The board does need a good shake up and get rid of some cronies that are about as useless as you know what on a bull.

Whats different this time. Much. Projects are not just pie in the sky. Kupe is going to be very big and Tui is doing pretty well as well. Pike will or at least should be sold in the next 12 months imo.

Bermuda and others saw the potential in this company long before i did and full kudos to them. However i got in over 5 years ago so i am not compaining too much.

Exciting and volatile times ahead

[bermuda]

Back then they had very strong motive. The wanted the OC's excercised. It was that time i became very anti TR and still hold that view today. He has passed his used by date and the sooner he gets right out of nzo the better. In the mean time he must have something in the vicinity of $20m tied up with nzo and ppp, either directly or indirectly. Anyway enough of him.

I am a big fan of David, he seems a down to earth man with far more integrity that others. The board does need a good shake up and get rid of some cronies that are about as useless as you know what on a bull.

Whats different this time. Much. Projects are not just pie in the sky. Kupe is going to be very big and Tui is doing pretty well as well. Pike will or at least should be sold in the next 12 months imo.

Bermuda and others saw the potential in this company long before i did and full kudos to them. However i got in over 5 years ago so i am not compaining too much.

Exciting and volatile times ahead

Actually, in the end Mangatoa was too risky.

[tricha]

The big question, KUPE, what $ value to break even.?

Above that money in the bank.:p

Oil Prices Will See Downturn in the Next 12 to 18 Months, Expert Says
By Jing Yang
21 May 2008 at 10:18 AM GMT-04:00

SHANGHAI (Interfax-China) -- With global attention fixated on oil prices reaching between $150 to $200 per barrel within the year, David Bensimon is one of the few industry experts that dares to challenge the status quo.
"It's not that I disagree with their target of $200 per barrel. My point is that it's just not going to happen straight away," Bensimon, a former senior interbank trader with over 20 years of active trading experience who now advises institutional investors through his company Polar Pacific, told Interfax yesterday from Singapore. "Some are looking for it to continue immediately to that level, and my view is that for a variety of technical and fundamental reasons, oil should pull back to $85 before it resumes the larger uptrend."

He attributes this expected 30% drop to significant resistance around the $126 to $128 benchmark and forecasts that the main decline will begin in July.
In March 2005, with oil prices below $50 per barrel, Bensimon predicted that the cost of oil would reach $100 per barrel in 2007. Bensimon later highlighted a more significant target of $128, and when he spoke to Interfax in March this year, he emphasized further that once it reached that mark, there would be a buzz among the industry of prices hitting $200 per barrel.
"People will lift their horizons to much higher levels, simply projecting the most recent momentum and acceleration to continue into the future. That kind of maximal optimism always accompanies maximum price. That is just the nature of it," he explained.
"However, my view is that it will pull back," Bensimon said.
According to him, world oil prices are in the midst of a 16-year climb from December 1998 to December 2015, over which a unified five-wave sequence will play out.
"The first big rally from 1998 took a couple of years and saw oil prices rise from $11 to $27. A deep correction for the second wave then pulled prices back to $17 in late 2001. Everything from $17 up to $127 represents the third wave in the series, and we have now reached the top of this movement," he said.
"So in the next 12 to 18 months, we should see oil prices travel between the consolidating zone of roughly $127 to $85," he added.
On a smaller scale, he notes that during the next few weeks, the market could see a quick drop to about $115 per barrel, but only to rebound to highs in early July. He states that there is some room for short-term volatility near the $127 mark, which may lead to false price hikes. However, prices will stay below $133 per barrel.
"Only if prices quickly move and hold above $133 do we need to consider that something else is happening, but so far, everything is consistent with the long-held view that we are now completing exactly what needs to be done since 2001," he said. "And the natural expectation based on this nice rhythm that has unfolded so perfectly so far, is that prices need to move sideways in the next year or 18 months, including the dips to twice tag support at $85."
After reaching $85 in 2010, oil will enter another bullish run that may send final prices peaking at a stunning $400 per barrel around 2015, he predicts. "During that eventual five-year advance, oil prices will be driven not only by the global demand of oil, but also, to a large extent, by the monetary inflation of a weakening U.S. dollar," he said.
Bensimon also added that the expected pullback in oil prices during 2009 will drive down production costs for corporate companies and therefore will boost world stock prices.
NYMEX June West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil hit a record high of $129.60 a barrel on Tuesday night after legendary Texas oil billionaire Boone Pickens publicly predicted that crude oil would reach $150 a barrel this year. His statement also came amid speculation in the market that world oil production will be unable to meet demands as early as next decade. This speculation is supported by the robust demand growth from China, which is partly a result of the country's artificially low, government-capped fuel prices.
Investment bank Goldman Sachs in its latest report raised its projection for average oil prices in the second half of this year from $107 per barrel to $141. They also said earlier in the year that international oil prices would spike to $200 per barrel in the next two years.
© Interfax-China 2008. For further information regarding Interfax China Commodities Daily Reports, contact David Harman at david.harman@interfax-news.com (david.harman@interfax-news.com). Interfax also publishes a comprehensive China Grains & Soft Special Report, contact David Harman for details.

[zigzag]

Nita. Your friend David didn't find Kupe or Tui. That was done on T.R.'s watch. T.R. never hyped Mangatoa. That was done by the press, and people who only read headlines and look at the pictures. T.R. may have said there was potentially a lot of gas down there, but he also said it very deep, very tight, very expensive and ultimately too risky. I think NZ needs more entrapreneurs of T.R.'s calibre, and a lot less knockers and whingers.

[the machine]

upcoming milestones for nzo

may 25 - vessel loading another cargo = approx 12.8 million barrels shipped
may 28 - 13 million barrels produced
weeks end, kupe production test data
late next week= weather permitting, momoho spuds
mid june, tui reserves upgraded
by june 20, tui produced 14 million barrels

along the way, a statement to the effect tui will produce estimated xx million barrels by june 30

implications for sp - biggest mover in shorterm is a positive kupe production test - say 10c appreciation in sp and options - that makes options in the money for sure

by mid june - tui reserves updated [@ xx %] [maybe 50%] =sp up again

would not rule out nzo @ $2.10 @ june 30.

M

[Nitaa]

Nita. Your friend David didn't find Kupe or Tui. That was done on T.R.'s watch. T.R. never hyped Mangatoa. That was done by the press, and people who only read headlines and look at the pictures. T.R. may have said there was potentially a lot of gas down there, but he also said it very deep, very tight, very expensive and ultimately too risky. I think NZ needs more entrapreneurs of T.R.'s calibre, and a lot less knockers and whingers.
You make some good and potentially valid points,

Yes David wasnt on the watch when he came on board. Basically a lot of the work has been done and now he gets to have the cream. What i do like about David is he has the persona.

What i find with TR is that he was more incensed on protecting nzo from predators which he did a good job. The down side was his inability to create value for the shareholders which is one of his main roles. His inability to forcast operating costs also stood out imo and the delays of Pike were there for all to see. Ev eryone expected and forsaw the delays except TR until he had no choice but to say i was delayed.

The fact that he has was running nmore than 1 company and lived overseas meant that it was imposible for him to deliver full value to what is essentially a nz company.

If what i am saying means i am a knocker in your opinion then that is fine. I am sim,ply calling it how i see it. FYI i have been a nzo investor for well over 5 years and help ppp for about 14 months which TR is there. Does that make me support him. Not really, just that i saw ppp as a value share at the time and still see it as value.

[Wilkins_Micawber]

upcoming milestones for nzo

may 25 - vessel loading another cargo = approx 12.8 million barrels shipped
may 28 - 13 million barrels produced
weeks end, kupe production test data
late next week= weather permitting, momoho spuds
mid june, tui reserves upgraded
by june 20, tui produced 14 million barrels

along the way, a statement to the effect tui will produce estimated xx million barrels by june 30

implications for sp - biggest mover in shorterm is a positive kupe production test - say 10c appreciation in sp and options - that makes options in the money for sure

by mid june - tui reserves updated [@ xx %] [maybe 50%] =sp up again

would not rule out nzo @ $2.10 @ june 30.

M

And hopefully PRC tunnel thru the Hawera fault this month - shouldn't hurt NZOs shareprice either ...

[trackers]

is in the chch main public libary... well actually i've got it out at the moment
will be back there soon.

Bugger, I was there last week but had a complete mind blank when trying to think of the name of it! :confused:

[sideline]

NZO
26/05/2008
MINE

REL: 0944 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited

MINE: NZO: Kupe Development Wells Flow Test Report

New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd (NZOG) advises that at 06:00hrs on 25 May flow test
operations were completed for the Kupe South 8 (KS-8) development well.

KS-8 test results are as follows:

- Depth and interval tested: 3,513m - 3,575m measured depth below
rotary table
- Sustained Gas Rate = 33 million standard cubic feet / day
- Condensate Rate = 3,840 Standard Barrels/day
- Choke Size = 1 inch
- Surface Flowing Pressure = 2,100 psig
- Fluids Recovered = Gas and Condensate

As previously advised, testing of Kupe South 6 (KS-6) over the interval
3,014m to 3,106m MDRT is expected to commence today, to be followed by
testing of Kupe South 7 (KS-7).

Drilling of the three development wells began on 19 December 2007.

The Kupe Project is located within permit PML38146 in the offshore Taranaki
Basin, New Zealand, approximately 30km off the coast. The development will
comprise production wells tied into an unmanned offshore platform, a 30 km
pipeline to shore, and an onshore processing station. The Kupe Project is
expected to be completed by mid-2009 and produce approximately 254 petajoules
of natural gas, 1.1 million tonnes of LPG and 14.7 million barrels of light
oil/condensate.

Participants in the Kupe Gas Project are:
Origin Energy Limited (through its subsidiary Origin
Energy Resources (Kupe) Limited)
50% (Operator)
Genesis Energy (through wholly owned subsidiaries)
31%
New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited (through wholly owned subsidiaries)
15%
Mitsui E&P Australia Pty Ltd
4%
End CA:00165123 For:NZO Type:MINE Time:2008-05-26:09:44:08

[digger]

NZO
26/05/2008
MINE

REL: 0944 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited

MINE: NZO: Kupe Development Wells Flow Test Report

New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd (NZOG) advises that at 06:00hrs on 25 May flow test
operations were completed for the Kupe South 8 (KS-8) development well.

KS-8 test results are as follows:

- Depth and interval tested: 3,513m - 3,575m measured depth below
rotary table
- Sustained Gas Rate = 33 million standard cubic feet / day
- Condensate Rate = 3,840 Standard Barrels/day
- Choke Size = 1 inch
- Surface Flowing Pressure = 2,100 psig
- Fluids Recovered = Gas and Condensate

As previously advised, testing of Kupe South 6 (KS-6) over the interval
3,014m to 3,106m MDRT is expected to commence today, to be followed by
testing of Kupe South 7 (KS-7).

Drilling of the three development wells began on 19 December 2007.

The Kupe Project is located within permit PML38146 in the offshore Taranaki
Basin, New Zealand, approximately 30km off the coast. The development will
comprise production wells tied into an unmanned offshore platform, a 30 km
pipeline to shore, and an onshore processing station. The Kupe Project is
expected to be completed by mid-2009 and produce approximately 254 petajoules
of natural gas, 1.1 million tonnes of LPG and 14.7 million barrels of light
oil/condensate.

Participants in the Kupe Gas Project are:
Origin Energy Limited (through its subsidiary Origin
Energy Resources (Kupe) Limited)
50% (Operator)
Genesis Energy (through wholly owned subsidiaries)
31%
New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited (through wholly owned subsidiaries)
15%
Mitsui E&P Australia Pty Ltd
4%
End CA:00165123 For:NZO Type:MINE Time:2008-05-26:09:44:08

Regrettable i need more infor as i do not have the tech skills to know how to read this. PPP's Maitland gas flowed at 6 and we were told that it could do much better and that really 20 was required,so 33 looks pretty good. That is also assuming both use a 1 inch hole
Anyone help me[us] here. Waaihoek what does this all read in comparative language.What did we expect prior to the development well being drilled?

[sideline]

Regrettable i need more infor as i do not have the tech skills to know how to read this. PPP's Maitland gas flowed at 6 and we were told that it could do much better and that really 20 was required,so 33 looks pretty good. That is also assuming both use a 1 inch hole
Anyone help me[us] here. Waaihoek what does this all read in comparative language.What did we expect prior to the development well being drilled?

I don't know what was expected, but quantity wise I calculate:

If the other two wells perform similarly, we can expect
- about 100m cf of gas/day
- about 11500 barrels of light oil/condensate/day

I don't know what the 1" choke means - is this just for measuring the well in a standard way
or is that the production setup??

Somebody familiar with the industry could perhaps tell us.

[primo]

Can someone please tell me what is the last day that the options will trade, sorry if this has been asked before.
Thanks very much

[fish]

last day trading 30th june

It is extremely unfair that info like flow rates is announced without an interpretation of whether this is more or less than expected .
It means that those in the know have an unfair trading advantage.
Please could Chris/nzo please tell us how good the flow rate is asap

[primo]

Thanks for that.

[Bilo]

Regrettable i need more infor as i do not have the tech skills to know how to read this. PPP's Maitland gas flowed at 6 and we were told that it could do much better and that really 20 was required,so 33 looks pretty good. That is also assuming both use a 1 inch hole
Anyone help me[us] here. Waaihoek what does this all read in comparative language.What did we expect prior to the development well being drilled?

Yes Digger, what is missing is whether the gas is wetter than they expected. My rudimentary calculations would have their ratio of 33Mscf/d to 3840 bopd equating to about 1PJ :13000 bo. If this were so then there would appear to be a higher ratio at this test than 254PJ to 14M bo indicates at first glance. Encouraging for the remaining tests?

[arjay]

Mick -- libraries are a forgotten source of info eh

Wgtn Public Library has 3 copies available at the moment

Thanks Winner,
I hadn't forgotten about the library - Hamitlon doesn't have it tho. I saw it advertised on fishpond too, however the delivery time sugested they have to source it from overseas. Next plan is to try inter-loans.

[duncan macgregor]

[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;201047]Competition to select NZO share price on conversion date June 30th
in the event of a tie the winner is the person with the correct score posting first
I will list you in posting order.
1,AMR 180c, 2, OILER 165c, 3,Macdunk 159c. 4,MATTYROO 158c.
5,SEAMUS 135c, 6,SERPIE 131c, 7, LIZ 120c, 8, STRAT157c.
9TRACKERS 168, 10, COLIN 170, 11,THE MACHINE 210c. 12,MALCOLM 200c.
13,SPOOK 172, 14,BIG BOB184c, 15,ZORBA 155c, 16, REMY 167c,
17 AMERICAN PSYCHO 175c 18 SHASTA 161c, 19RONTHEPOM 171c 20 PHAEDRUS 160.
21SHREWDY 169, 22 BERMUDA 149, 23 MORV 183c, 24 COALIE 188c
25 DIGGER 173c, 26 blank, 27 NITA 181c, 28 SUMMER NED 193c.
29 QOH 179c, 30 WK6332 225c 31 BALANCE $10-60 32 KS 162,
33 TOK3N 145c, 34 SHANE M 162.5c, 35CORRAN 156c, 36 MICK100 300c.
37 DSURF 154c, 38 SKEET 185c,39 MIBO 177c, 40 JAY 162c,
41 ZACMAN 187c, 42 GAMBLER33 115c, 43 ANUBUS144c, 44 BRUCETO9 164c.
45 romer 163c.46 HOOP 147c 47 RABBI 148c 48 ROTWEILLER 153c,
49 MINGEATHINAIOOS 150c,50 MANXMAN 195c, 51 MACDUFFY 146c, 52 BLOCKHEAD 198c,
53 777 226c,54 SWISSBOY 174c,55 AIRDALE166,56 CLIPS 178c,
57 PADDIE 196c,58 FOODEE 176, 59 BK152c,60 MPC182c,
61 STEVE 151,62 ONTHEMONEY 143, 63 LION 186, 64,TIM23 189c,
65 BOB C 190 66 RIF RAF 191c 67, OUT TO LUNCH 194 68 SEHNSUCHT888 192c,
69 PIETRADE 220c,70 ZAC 197c, 71,CAM 245C,72, CHALICE 214c,
73 GLENDOONIE 142c

[CAM]

Some bits on NZOG in this article

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10512023

[Nitaa]

last day trading 30th june

It is extremely unfair that info like flow rates is announced without an interpretation of whether this is more or less than expected .
It means that those in the know have an unfair trading advantage.
Please could Chris/nzo please tell us how good the flow rate is asapHow is it unfair? If peope have done their reseaerch in the technical side of things then they will beable to decipher how this is relevant. I am sure if one googles info about it then one can work it out.

[fish]

How is it unfair? If peope have done their reseaerch in the technical side of things then they will beable to decipher how this is relevant. I am sure if one googles info about it then one can work it out.

Tried your idea nita and cannot get any info on the expected flow rate

It is unfair because We dont all have access to the expected flow rate and whether this exceeded expectations -if it is so easy to get this info hopefully you will oblige and post it .

[zorba]

Regrettable i need more infor as i do not have the tech skills to know how to read this. PPP's Maitland gas flowed at 6 and we were told that it could do much better and that really 20 was required,so 33 looks pretty good. That is also assuming both use a 1 inch hole
Anyone help me[us] here. Waaihoek what does this all read in comparative language.What did we expect prior to the development well being drilled?


Spoke to Waaihoek earlier today, and he comments as follows:

http://www.med.govt.nz/upload/12373/008.pdf

Although this NZOG document dates from 2002 it gives expected production rates for individual Kupe wells of about 25 mmscf/d (see page 6, data in table and in text). The result for KS-8 is some 30% above that figure.

Note also at bottom of page 6 is a reference to Kupe producing at the rate of 50 mmcf/d (two wells) for a total annual production rate of 18 bcf/d.

Now 1 bcf/yr is very close to 1 petajoule/yr

The Kupe gas supply contract calls for delivery of 20 petajoules of gas per year.

Therefore Kupe only has to produce at a rate of approx 55 mmcf/d to satisfy contract obligations.

Hence flow testing result for Kupe South-8 is looking excellent.

Remaining two wells for flow testing only have produce another 22 mmcf/d to bring up the total of 55 mmcf/d required. The three wells together should easily reach that combined total.

For info on bcf to petajoules conversion see second page of:

http://www.electricity.org.nz/download.php?type=public&file=Energy_conversion_factors.doc&download=true

Flow rates and flow pressures are always quoted with respect to a certain choke size in order to facilitate comparison between wells. A 1 inch choke size is a common choice. The ability of Kupe South-8 to deliver 33 mmscf/d and still have a surface flowing pressure of 2100 psig is excellent and indicates that the flow rates can be sustained.

Condensate production of 3,840 barrels per day also looks excellent ...... multiplied over three production wells looks like Kupe will be delivering condensate at over 10,000 barrels per day.

Condensate should fetch premium prices per barrel since it does not require so much refining as does oil, and much of the condensate will be transformed into high value LPG etc.


Go Kupe !!!!

.

[Mick100]

thanks zorba
good work

[zorba]

.
Wotz going on ..... good flow test for Kupe KS-8, and PRC up 7 cents to $1.71, and NZOG goes down 2 cents ??

Weird !!

(Maybe Noggers selling NZO to get into PRC ?)

Z

[Chris Roberts]

Options:
A letter is going in the mail this week to all option holders reminding them that the options expire on 30 June.
Options can be exercised up until 5pm on 30 June. Envelopes postmarked prior to 5pm on 30 June will be accepted.
The options will stop trading at the close of trading on the NZX and ASX on Monday 23 June.

Kupe Drilling:
The information released this morning is specifically designed to satisfy NZX listing rules, which require this information to be released within 24 hours of a flow test. It should be noted that the wells are being tested for deliverability. The test results should not be interpreted in terms of likely production rates or reserves.
NZOG hopes to release a summary statement after the third well has been tested and the drilling campaign is concluded.

[fish]

Thanks so much for that info Zorba -its all looking very sweet for nzo
PRC climbing as well
Bought more nzood this afternoon

Thanks also Chris for your clarification

[trackers]

Oil deals dominate April balance of trade

11:50AM Monday May 26, 2008


http://media.apn.co.nz/webcontent/image/jpg/oil_rig2.jpg






New Zealand's exports to the world rose nearly 20 per cent in April, reaching $3.8 billion for the month.
But the other side of the equation was up too - with $4.1 billion of imports, up 22 per cent from April last year.
Both sides of the April trade ledger are influence by oil, with crude oil exports reaching a record high of $311 million for the month, and $477 million worth of oil-related imports - with an oil platform and production ship coming into the country during April.
Oil is influencing wider patterns too, says one economist, with our exports to oil producing countries rising, as the amount sent to tradtional partners like the US falls.
Most of the oil exported from New Zealand comes from the offshore Tui oilfield, which is 12.5 per cent owned by locally listed company NZOG.


http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10512535

[pietrade]

[QUOTE=fish;
It is unfair because We dont all have access to the expected flow rate and whether this exceeded expectations -

I completely agree with you FISH - the company should clearly present all relevant info so that all shareholders have access. Transparency should prevail, and there should be no need to google anything, to be informed about what 'your' company is doing. Cheers

[zorba]

.
The well that established Kupe as a viable gas field is Kupe South-3B, which was flow tested in 1988.

The critical Drill Stem Tests for this well re gas potential were:

DST 2+2A: for choke size 64/64 (1 inch) the reported test flow rate = 24.3 mmscf/d

DST 3: for choke size 64/64 (1 inch) the reported test flow rate = 26.4 mmscf/d

Data from report PR 2858 / Crown Minerals.

It is not clear from PR 2858 what the surface flowing gas pressure was for the above tests.

This complicates the comparison of the above flow rates with the flow rate announced today for KS-8 and a direct comparison may not be appropriate !!

Nevertheless the flow rate announced today for KS-8 appears to be in the right direction, ie higher than the flow rates reported for KS-3B.

Z

[Lion]

Here's a few figures I collected on NZOODs, as June 30th draws nearer

376,569 exercised already (only 0.27%, but each one reduces number for sale).

37,233,093 traded so far this month
80,570,013 traded so far this year
140,639,623 traded last 12 months
High/low price last 12 months 14c/4c (whoops, corrected later)


Total on issue 138,544,329

[fish]

thanks zorba for your latest info


have just calculated that tui oil could be earning $176.68 nz a barrel based on current excchange rate and tapis oil price-or if nzo is still getting 5500 barrels a day-970,000 plus per day .
Kupe will fit nicely on top of that so should not be any significant decline in income -then dividend income from prc .
Plus momoho to be drilled next week !
Exciting times ahead

[tim23]

Lion - the options hit 32c in last 12 months?

[Lion]

Lion - the options hit 32c in last 12 months?

Hmmm, yeah, maybe I got that wrong Tim. I copied the figures from NZX http://www.nzx.com/markets/nzsx/NZOOD and there are other discrepancies I've noticed there.

Cos a year ago there was big excitement about Hector, wasn't there?
I'll try to find out and set the record straight

Sorry! I'll use the Liam Dann excuse and say I just copied from a reputable source!! But at least I apologise and admit it. And will try to get it right. Not that it's very big deal. :o

Yep, NZX and I were wrong, 32c it was

[the machine]

thanks Zorba / Waaihoek re kupe 8s production test.

remember this is the smallest drill penetration as other 2 holes are almost 50% more - tests to follow throughout the week.

looked up last gas production test for nzo of any signifigance when they had controlling interest in ppp.

corvus-1 was drilled in 2000 to 4028 metres, encountered 420 metre gas column but they did not drill to the bottom.

tested 15 million cubic feetper day with a (7/16)" choke and 3,100 psi wellhead pressure.

problems with testing, mainly due to extended drill time in the reservoir - 21 days.
Apache estimated 26 - 30 million standard cubic feet per day using a larger choke.

420 metre thick column, open at bottom, is a very thick reservoir, but it is not big enough as a stand alone development.

thought the production test [of sorts] would be of interest.

M

[digger]

Was very busy yesterday doing other things so could not get back to thank all for info on the Kupe 8 tests.Zorba you have an excellent memory to complete two posts after one talk with waaihoek. The results do look good .
Thanks Chris for undertaking to do a NZO summary after the all the test results are in. To do one now would be as misleading as trying to guess what an elephant frame would be after only seeing it's trunk. Note pun intended about using elephant as reference. So next week or there abouts Chris should be giving NZO summary of the flow tests. Great.

[Snow Leopard]

from Origin Energy Announcement (http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=OCF&E=NZSE&N=165187)

"27 May 2008

Testing of Kupe development well KS-6 (offshore Taranaki
Basin, New Zealand)

Origin Energy Limited, on behalf of the Kupe Joint Venture, advises that at
15:00hrs on 26 May flow test operations were completed for the Kupe South 6
(KS-6) development well.

KS-6 test results are summarised as follows:

- Depth = 3,014m - 3,106m MDRT (measured depth below rotary table)
- Sustained Gas Rate = 41 MMSCF/D (million standard cubic feet / day)
- Condensate Rate = 6,000 STB/D (Stock tank Barrels/day)
- Choke Size = 56/64 inches
- Surface Flowing Pressure = 3,030 psig
- Fluids Recovered = Gas and Condensate

Testing of Kupe South 7 (KS-7) over the interval 3,188m to 3,280m MDRT
commenced at 07:00 hrs this morning"

regards
Paper Tiger

[Bilo]

from Origin Energy Announcement (http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=OCF&E=NZSE&N=165187)

"27 May 2008

Testing of Kupe development well KS-6 (offshore Taranaki
Basin, New Zealand)

Origin Energy Limited, on behalf of the Kupe Joint Venture, advises that at
15:00hrs on 26 May flow test operations were completed for the Kupe South 6
(KS-6) development well.

KS-6 test results are summarised as follows:

- Depth = 3,014m - 3,106m MDRT (measured depth below rotary table)
- Sustained Gas Rate = 41 MMSCF/D (million standard cubic feet / day)
- Condensate Rate = 6,000 STB/D (Stock tank Barrels/day)
- Choke Size = 56/64 inches
- Surface Flowing Pressure = 3,030 psig
- Fluids Recovered = Gas and Condensate

Testing of Kupe South 7 (KS-7) over the interval 3,188m to 3,280m MDRT
commenced at 07:00 hrs this morning"

regards
Paper Tiger

Damn! The reservoir was supposed to be full of gas not oil.:D

[arjay]

according to my simplistic back-of-envelope calculations, NZO's gross share of condensate from KS-6 and KS-8 alone (providing they are sustained) is worth 45c per annum.

[BigBob]

according to my simplistic back-of-envelope calculations, NZO's gross share of condensate from KS-6 and KS-8 alone (providing they are sustained) is worth 45c per annum.

Hopefully that's 45c per share per annum... otherwise it's gonna take a while before payback is reached... :o)

[sideline]

according to my simplistic back-of-envelope calculations, NZO's gross share of condensate from KS-6 and KS-8 alone (providing they are sustained) is worth 45c per annum.

If the K7 well comes in between the two, that will be around 15000 barrels/day of condensate,
i.e. 2250 for NZO. Not a bad addition to the TUI barrels.
Question1: what price do you assume for condensate, same as crude oil?
Question2: is there any significance to the fact that a smaller choke was used, i.e. at 1" the
well would produce even more?

[Bilo]

If the K7 well comes in between the two, that will be around 15000 barrels/day of condensate,
i.e. 2250 for NZO. Not a bad addition to the TUI barrels.
Question1: what price do you assume for condensate, same as crude oil?
Question2: is there any significance to the fact that a smaller choke was used, i.e. at 1" the
well would produce even more?

I would guess proportional to the x-sect area, so about 30pc more through 1" choke at the same temp and pressure but pressure was much higher too....no doubt there is a table for comparison of these things...

[Chippie]

I just came across this article from Crown minerals
http://www.crownminerals.govt.nz/cms/news/2005/news_item.2007-04-30.3678032981?searchterm=lpg


“The plan would supply around 20PJ of sales gas a year together with condensate production commencing at 1.7 million barrels a year and LPG output at 45,000 tonnes a year.”

Condensate only needs to average 4658 barrels per day to get 1.7Mbarrel a year. So based on news of approx 10,000 barrels per day from the two wells Kupe is looking like a real winner, well and truly exceeding expectations?

[the machine]

If the K7 well comes in between the two, that will be around 15000 barrels/day of condensate,
i.e. 2250 for NZO. Not a bad addition to the TUI barrels.
Question1: what price do you assume for condensate, same as crude oil?
Question2: is there any significance to the fact that a smaller choke was used, i.e. at 1" the
well would produce even more?

Q1 condensate is worth a lot more than crude as less refining.


Q2 flow was too high for a 1" choke - pity not!

if K7 delivers more of the same, then standby for a reserves upgrade in a few months time.

nzo price is going up tomorrow on back of both the test flows k8/7 plus tui reaching 13 m barrels

- which side of 10c? -

the K6 test to come in on friday

look to the weather gods for a nice break of 2-3 days, so can shift the rig.

would an extra tug on the shift job enable a quicker shift? instead of relying on just the rig tender - me think so and could be money well spent - even if just holding rig in stable position for the critical leg up and down tasks.
would be a pity waiting for a week or 2 delay waiting for the weather window

M

[arjay]

If the K7 well comes in between the two, that will be around 15000 barrels/day of condensate,
i.e. 2250 for NZO. Not a bad addition to the TUI barrels.
Question1: what price do you assume for condensate, same as crude oil?
Question2: is there any significance to the fact that a smaller choke was used, i.e. at 1" the
well would produce even more?

I assumed a barrel of condensate might go for $200 (being of higher value than Tapis). Not sure about the choke - maybe someone else can offer a suggestion. If Momoho comes through we might pass 20,000 barrels per day.

[zorba]

.
Latest numbers look good .....

I'm guesing they used a smaller choke because if they had used a full 1 inch choke the flow rate would have been much higher ...... maybe their gas flow meters would have been off the scale ??

And lots of condensate production, looks like Kupe is going to bring home the bacon !!

Looking forward to the final test and the summing up and interpretation.

Z

[digger]

.
Latest numbers look good .....

I'm guesing they used a smaller choke because if they had used a full 1 inch choke the flow rate would have been much higher ...... maybe their gas flow meters would have been off the scale ??

And lots of condensate production, looks like Kupe is going to bring home the bacon !!

Looking forward to the final test and the summing up and interpretation.

Z

Thanks Zobra for your imput. But the final summing up of what this elephant looks like will only come once the results of Momoho are known.Another thing that has to be kept in mind is the JV's built the plant several times bigger than the last public stated size of KUPE. So the real question is will the figures equal this or exceed this size,as some expectation of greater flow will already be built into the SP.
Anyways as i write it is all doom and gloom as the price of oil has fell to 128-80. Anybe KUPE will have to be abandom at this price or do we hold in there until next week or two when it goes over 140 .

[fish]

Thanks Zobra for your imput. But the final summing up of what this elephant looks like will only come once the results of Momoho are known.Another thing that has to be kept in mind is the JV's built the plant several times bigger than the last public stated size of KUPE. So the real question is will the figures equal this or exceed this size,as some expectation of greater flow will already be built into the SP.
Anyways as i write it is all doom and gloom as the price of oil has fell to 128-80. Anybe KUPE will have to be abandom at this price or do we hold in there until next week or two when it goes over 140 .

sure was disappointing to hear the price of oil has dropped on this mornings money markets

This will obscure all the good news

How much has it dropped-have a look at the grapph of oil price since december
Tapis has dropped a few cents overnight from an all time high
http://www.upstreamonline.com/market_data/?id=markets_crude
poo is on a beautiful straight line up !

[the machine]

the most popular news stories on nzx new website still includes last weeks news about the fspo charter extension.

as regards most popular companies - nzo & prc are listed


waiting for kupe production tests to be listed

M

[Sehnsucht888]

Saw this article in the paper from Monday.

Of Note:
"Firstly, after inflation and the weak dollar is taken into account, oil is only marginally more expensive than during the oil crisis of the 1980s."

"there are still vast untapped oil fields that will supply the world's needs for centuries to come."


http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,23755270-5001030,00.html
-----
Oil's well, and prices will fall again



By Tom Bower

May 26, 2008 12:00am

DAY by day, the oil price moves remorselessly upwards, inflicting pain on every household and motorist. The same barrel of crude that sold for $65 in 2007 is now $135 and might soon cost $200.

But across the world, 86 million barrels of oil are produced every day, which at the moment is sufficient - not least because consumption in America, which burns a quarter of the world's supply every day, is actually declining.

Alarmists also say that the world's oil supplies have passed their "peak", that the world has consumed half of all its oil and that the remaining one trillion barrels will be gone by 2025. This is quite simply tosh.

No one it seems is willing to proclaim the truth: There is no oil shortage. The fact is that we are all being forced to pay an artificially high price because of a combination of factors.

First there is the greed of the oil traders, bankers and speculators in the world's financial centres who are pocketing billions from our misery. Then there is the venality of oil producing countries, whose economies profit massively from artificially keeping the oil price high.

And next there are the scare stories - from hurricanes heading for oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico to power failures in Iraq, that these two groups exploit together in an unholy alliance to push the prices up.

On top of this OPEC - the organisation of the world's major oil producers - stands accused of slyly engineering the crisis in order to drive up prices.

The claim, made by both President Bush and Gordon Brown, is that OPEC is a self-interested cartel which is refusing to increase oil production and bring down prices.

The result of the conspiracy is awesome. Since oil prices started rising in 2003, the OPEC states amassed over $US1 trillion in so-called sovereign wealth funds.

But it would be wrong of us in the West to despair. Firstly, after inflation and the weak dollar is taken into account, oil is only marginally more expensive than during the oil crisis of the 1980s. Back then, the bubble eventually burst and prices collapsed.

Secondly, if consumers quickly commissioned alternatives including nuclear power, renewable energy and environmentally acceptable coal-fired power stations, the oil producers would become terrified that their source of income was endangered.

So throughout the pain remember two things: all price bubbles burst, and there are still vast untapped oil fields that will supply the world's needs for centuries to come.
------

[Bilo]

Crisis essentially accounting problem By TERRY HALL - The Dominion Post | Monday, 28 April 2008
Investors are in for nasty shocks over the coming weeks when they see the lousy, and even negative, returns from a wide range of funds, especially those specialising in shares (other than NZO)......new accounting rules insisting that investments are valued on a mark-to- market basis.
This term is likely to draw blank looks from most investors, but it has far- reaching consequences.
Mark-to-market regulations require .... accountants to value assets daily or regularly. It has been rigidly enforced by accountants trying to avoid the sort of criticism they received during the dotcom bubble and crash of 2000.

I think that this means that NZO will be expected to value PRC at market and add another ~$40M to their profit for this year. It kills the tax losses and paves the way for the next fully imputed dividend. Does anyone know if/how these revaluations get taxed?

[the machine]

per chance did the 2 kupe production tests thus far have any press coverage in nz?

they were covered in international energy sites energy review & oil & gas international

the kupe news is huge and was expecting some significant gain in the sp today - maybe when asx opens will see something

M

[BigBob]

per chance did the 2 kupe production tests thus far have any press coverage in nz?

they were covered in international energy sites energy review & oil & gas international

the kupe news is huge and was expecting some significant gain in the sp today - maybe when asx opens will see something

M

I skim-read the DomPost this morning and there was no mention whatsoever.... not really surprised though - NZO seems to be either too hard to understand and write about or the success too much of a positive story with all the doom and gloom that is prevalent these days..

[arjay]

Saw this article in the paper from Monday.

So throughout the pain remember two things: all price bubbles burst, and there are still vast untapped oil fields that will supply the world's needs for centuries to come.
------

It really narks me that the oilers have been sitting on their butts while journalists have gone out, discovered, and proved up vast untapped oil-fileds. I wonder where they found them?

[Billy Boy]

I skim-read the DomPost this morning and there was no mention whatsoever.... not really surprised though - NZO seems to be either too hard to understand and write about or the success too much of a positive story with all the doom and gloom that is prevalent these days..
Not just the press....
TV is worse
BB

[Hoop]

Not just the press....
TV is worse
BB
...................and the media twist the facts to suit their present attitude.
This is showing that the markets are in a state of flux at the moment.

Getting difficult to sort out the sheep pebbles from the brown M&Ms at the moment.

[Nitaa]

I saw an interesting piece on CNN. They showed how much reserves ae sitting in Middle East, Canada, Brazil etc. What they didnt say was that the Brazil oil field was 4 miles underground and cost of extracting the Canada reserves to be commercially viable requires oil prices to stabilze well over $100 per barrel ( guessing on Canada).

There may be enough oil for 40 or so years but the cost of extracting it may not be viable unless oil is $200 plus for example.

[KiwiBear]

On the supply side of things, Russia's Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has proposed easing taxes to stimulate oil output. This could add a further 12 million barrels a day to the market.

News that US consumer confidence fell to a record low for the last 16 years and a strengthening US dollar last night all had a major impact on the price of oil.

Oil has had some trouble getting back up to those recent highs and stalled around US$133.50. Once the market reopened last night it was all over and prices suffered a downward surge to the mid-US$128 zone.

[Kees]

Option trading ceases 23 june on market that is.

[zorba]

.
NZOG announcement late this afternoon.

**************************************************

KS-7 ST1 test results are as follows:

- Depth and interval tested: 3,188m - 3,280m measured depth below rotary table

- Sustained Gas Rate = 41.8 million standard cubic feet / day

- Condensate Rate = 6,393 Stock Tank Barrels / day

- Choke Size = 56/64 inches

- Surface Flowing Pressure = 3,051 psig

- Fluids Recovered = Gas and Condensate

This now concludes the testing phase of the three development wells which
will remain shut in as the rig prepares to move to the Momoho exploration
well location.

************************************************** ***********

Great Numbers !! Looking forward to the summary announcement on field deliverability from operator.

But in the meantime looks like Kupe will deliver in spades !!!!

.

[Mick100]

On the supply side of things, Russia's Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has proposed easing taxes to stimulate oil output. This could add a further 12 million barrels a day to the market.

.

You are an idiot kiwibear

Russia's output has fallen since ths beginning of this year - ie they have peaked - it's all downhill from here for russia
.

[Unicorn]

I think that this means that NZO will be expected to value PRC at market and add another ~$40M to their profit for this year. It kills the tax losses and paves the way for the next fully imputed dividend. Does anyone know if/how these revaluations get taxed?]

Where did your $40M figure come from? The figures I have indicate a bit over $70M at current price.

I don't think unrealised gains are taxable - there would have been a major commotion if this had been brought in, but I haven't heard anything. The idea appears to be to reflect any such gains/losses somewhere in the accounts. I can see a few companies headlining net profit before revaluations this year!

[zorba]

.
Have just listened to DS presentation to Excellence in Oil & Gas Conference in Sydney .....

Well delivered presentation combined with slides ..... great technology !!

To access browse to NZOG website, latest news, and click on "Webcast: 27 May 08 Presentation ...."

You have to give an email address to connect with the webcast, but once connected the webcast runs very smoothly !!

Z

[AMR]

Sure Russia's increase is not the usual seasonal increase?

Anyway Russia's peak oil I believe is artificial. Mainly because they have been confiscating oil fields operated by Shell and other foreigners.

[bermuda]

.
Wotz going on ..... good flow test for Kupe KS-8, and PRC up 7 cents to $1.71, and NZOG goes down 2 cents ??

Weird !!

(Maybe Noggers selling NZO to get into PRC ?)

Z

Just the negative power of an awful lot of options.

[bermuda]

On the supply side of things, Russia's Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has proposed easing taxes to stimulate oil output. This could add a further 12 million barrels a day to the market.

News that US consumer confidence fell to a record low for the last 16 years and a strengthening US dollar last night all had a major impact on the price of oil.

Oil has had some trouble getting back up to those recent highs and stalled around US$133.50. Once the market reopened last night it was all over and prices suffered a downward surge to the mid-US$128 zone.

Hi KiwBear,
How are you going?

Russia is going flat out and will be hard pressed to maintain production let alone increase it to 12 million bbls per day ( if that's what you mean ...because they sure as hell wont be able to increase it by that massive figure you quote. Perhaps you meant 1.2 million bbls )

Cheers

[friedegg]

Just the negative power of an awful lot of options.
although with less than a month to go they are still at premium or equal to head share price,theres less desparate sellers of options because not that greater volume was sold above 13c,i see it as good because ones buying now should be buying to convert

[Rabbi]

I agree. Apart from the dilution, the number of options that have to be converted is weighing heavily on the SP. Of course, NZO will have all that cash but they only have MoMoho this year, and if that play is dry they will have nothing better to do with the money than retire debt or buy into some farmins.
Good cashflow from Tui should underpin the SP in the short term.

[Steve]

Good cashflow from Tui should underpin the SP in the short term.

Well, for the next few years at least... :)

[fish]

although with less than a month to go they are still at premium or equal to head share price,theres less desparate sellers of options because not that greater volume was sold above 13c,i see it as good because ones buying now should be buying to convert

Have started telling all my friends and relatives about latest kupe test results ,tui producing at a rate 3 times predicted , and massive increase in valuation prc ,
Have no doubt oil , gas and coking coal are going to do well in times to come and they cant go wrong with a company like nzo with no net debt and oil on tap . The opportunity to buy at such a discount to the fundamental valuation is likely to be over soon-certainly by the end of june once the options stop knocking the head price down.

Still come july nzo will be cash rich with about an extra $200 million in bank from exercise options plus around $750 ,000 a day net profit from tui building up .Should make it one of the safest and richest companies in nz-as well as having one of the greatest future earning potentials .

[digger]

Chris,the three kupe testing wells are now complete.We await your NZO official assesment. As this is a public company and we want outside mums and dads in please remember the KISS. That is from my toastmaster days being "Keep it Simple Stupid".

I have spent a bit of time wondering if i should take a coar-se and learn how to read these geological reports but soon realised that this is not a company just for geologists and will continue to undersell itself unless it applies the KISS approach. To me it is little wonder that the Media and brokers shy away from trying to understand or talk about what is going on here.Note no news reports about the two available kupe well results so far. Does anyone wonder why.

I have just read DS presentation and the last report for KUPE is -
Share of 2p Reserves.38 PJgas
165,000 tonnes LPG
2.2 mm bbls light oil.

The new report should at least compare this as it now with what the latest three test results show. I want every high school drop out to be able to understand it.
It is past time NZO came out from under the shadow of geological speak.

[digger]

I have also just emailed Chris Roberts to make sure he reads my message above.
Anyone else feel it is about time the company started selling itself.We sure wou't unless we set things out in a simpler and easy to understand manner.

[Corporate]

I have also just emailed Chris Roberts to make sure he reads my message above.
Anyone else feel it is about time the company started selling itself.We sure wou't unless we set things out in a simpler and easy to understand manner.

I agree, often do not understand the reports. I don't have a background in this field but don't consider myself brainless. I find it hard to put a value on data that is presented in terms of flows/qauntities etc..

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Could be worse

NZO - 1 cent

AWE -30 cents ...

[sideline]

Thanks to all who replied to my questions.


An excellent result on K7 testing too, looking forward to a reserves revision from the tests.

[the machine]

looks like a weather window now to shift the rig onto momoho.

hope they can do this over next couple of days - big plus if they can.the kupe test data looks very impressive and should equate to an increase in reserves once fully evalulated in a few months time

m

[Mick100]

The new report should at least compare this as it now with what the latest three test results show. I want every high school drop out to be able to understand it.
It is past time NZO came out from under the shadow of geological speak.

Digger , NZO have to comply with the listing rules of both the NZX and the ASX. They will have to use a certain level of "technical speak" to ensure their announcments are accurate as well as comlying with the listing rules. They could get into trouble if they start throwing subjective remarks around too freely - they have to stick to the facts.

Personally, I don't want to see company announcments dumbed down to the extent that a high school dropout could understand, I don't understand all the technical data myself but after reading these types of announcments for 5 yrs now ,in my amiture opoinion, the kupe flow rates and presure were good with a decent size (1") choke

[the machine]

the kupe test flows were very impressive - yes very impressive

good things are goingtocome outof this

M

[Anubis]

Most of the oilers on the ASX were down heavily today - between 5 and 10% on average. Presumably this was a reaction to the (relatively minor) drop in oil prices overnight. Oil could easily turn back up tonight and then tomorrow the oilers will swing back around. I see that George Soros was reported as saying this week that he thinks oil price will continue to go up, and is unlikely to correct down until both the US and Britain are in recession. I always expected that oil would go to $150 eventually (and beyond) but didn't expect it to happen this quickly!

NZO is very well supported by comparison - appears almost immune to these factors on a day-to-day basis - moving to its own rhythm. In fact it feels to me like there's a lid being kept on it. It might be the option effect, but it almost has the feel of one or more big sellers keeping the price down at around $1.64. One of the reasons the ASX oilers are down so heavily today is because they had such a good run up the last week or two - during which period NZO has been practically stagnant. Sure, it had a great run up before that point, so there may be some exhaustion, but it just feels like it could pop again at any time.

Holding options...

[shasta]

Digger , NZO have to comply with the listing rules of both the NZX and the ASX. They will have to use a certain level of "technical speak" to ensure their announcments are accurate as well as comlying with the listing rules. They could get into trouble if they start throwing subjective remarks around too freely - they have to stick to the facts.

Personally, I don't want to see company announcments dumbed down to the extent that a high school dropout could understand, I don't understand all the technical data myself but after reading these types of announcments for 5 yrs now ,in my amiture opoinion, the kupe flow rates and presure were good with a decent size (1") choke

The one thing everyone understands is the quarterly cashflow statement, now that makes for pretty reading! :D

[Nitaa]

David is not the best speaker in the world (maybe its just the good ol kiwi accent). But... overall a very simplistic view of where nzo are right now.

MOHOho (what ever it is) has the'right address". Sandwhich between oil and gas so diggers comment a few weeks ago of drill and confirm looks spot on. However, just like horse racing there is no certainty.

TUI. Reserve upgrade WILL be annouced in about 4 to 6 weeks. It just keeps getting better.

Kupe: Gas will be adjusted according to inflation and is most likely viable on its own. With condesate its money for jam with pric4es going through the roof. Remember this was viable 3 - 4 years ago. Gas will provide revenue for at least 15 years, oil will be worth at least double the gas prices and exploration (mohoho) will add more than icing on the cake. DS quitely talked this up very large, hence the extra capacity Kupe has given the proven reserves.

Pike.

India will take it over in just as a big way as the IPL Cricket is doing. Academically these guys are brilliant but as dodgey as a vendaloo for dinner. After so long being criticised by me and others, nzo and PRC holders are starting to reap what they sowed.

When mohoho comes in the SP will close in on $2 or more in no time. If not then i am still holing on to a great company that will be paying dividends (unless taken over) on a regular basis.

GO NZO.. Go me and come on board Duncan

[Nitaa]

The proposed takeover from BG for Origin is interesting especially with Kupe. How this pans out will be interesting.

Personally i see it as nothing more that a big player buying out gullable smaller shareholders who do trealise the true value of their investment.

Whos next? nzo has often been touted and if an offer comes along at @ $2.00 $5.00 or whatever then i would see it as nothing short of the same thing where the big players but out those who just see the quick profit that can be made and not the true value of a company over a persiod of time

[bbob]

Quick calculation of the value to NZOG of the gas and condensate income is around $NZ500,000/d. Lots of assumptions and no costs accounted so only broad brush guestimate but good coin nonetheless

KS8 KS7 KS6 total NZOG share unit value NZOG income
Condensate 3840 6393 6000 16233 2434.95 164.5 400688
Gas mmcf/d 33 41.8 41 115.8 17.37 120921

McDouall Stuart broker report used for gas price estimate $6.63/GJ
17.37*1050 (mmcf converted to GJ)*6.63

Used $US130/0.79 rough exchange rate
I'm sure wiser heads can do better but a basis for discussion
Cheers
Bob

[manxman]

TUI. Reserve upgrade WILL be annouced in about 4 to 6 weeks. It just keeps getting better.



With trading in the options ending on 23rd June, I would hope that the Tui upgrade is announced well before then.

Mx

[digger]

Digger , NZO have to comply with the listing rules of both the NZX and the ASX. They will have to use a certain level of "technical speak" to ensure their announcments are accurate as well as comlying with the listing rules. They could get into trouble if they start throwing subjective remarks around too freely - they have to stick to the facts.

Personally, I don't want to see company announcments dumbed down to the extent that a high school dropout could understand, I don't understand all the technical data myself but after reading these types of announcments for 5 yrs now ,in my amiture opoinion, the kupe flow rates and presure were good with a decent size (1") choke

Mike100 while i accept that it has to be set out to cover NZO and ASX requirements it should also be summarised in simple english. Your bit about 5 years reading these reports and now having some understanding is exactally my point. What broker or reporter is going to go into that in that detail. KISS is the best policy to sell the company.

[bermuda]

Nita,
I listened to 32 speakers at the Sydney conference. David's presentation and delivery was up there with the best of them.

[Chris Roberts]

Digger,
I appreciate your wish for information and we strive to provide whatever information we think will be of interest to the market, as soon as we can.

It is important to understand two key things.
1. These were flow tests. They were not production tests. The main objectives were to confirm that the perforation guns have fired as expected, to partially clean out the wells (full cleanout can take up to several months), to confirm well deliverabilities and to recover hydrocarbon fluid samples in larger quantities for a comprehensive fluid assay. All three tests successfully recovered Hydrocarbons to Surface. To try and extrapolate these results into an estimate of production rates or reserves, is simply impossible.
2. NZOG is not the Operator and we cannot release any information without full JV approval. Origin is doing the technical work. The conclusions, when available, will be checked by our own technical team and then with JV approval, be released publicly.

Origin is currently in a trading halt but we hope that the JV will be able to release a statement summarising the five month drilling campaign by next week.

[digger]

Digger,
I appreciate your wish for information and we strive to provide whatever information we think will be of interest to the market, as soon as we can.

It is important to understand two key things.
1. These were flow tests. They were not production tests. The main objectives were to confirm that the perforation guns have fired as expected, to partially clean out the wells (full cleanout can take up to several months), to confirm well deliverabilities and to recover hydrocarbon fluid samples in larger quantities for a comprehensive fluid assay. All three tests successfully recovered Hydrocarbons to Surface. To try and extrapolate these results into an estimate of production rates or reserves, is simply impossible.
2. NZOG is not the Operator and we cannot release any information without full JV approval. Origin is doing the technical work. The conclusions, when available, will be checked by our own technical team and then with JV approval, be released publicly.

Origin is currently in a trading halt but we hope that the JV will be able to release a

statement summarising the five month drilling campaign by next week.

Thanks Chris appreciate your reply.Look forward to next week then and understand the current limitations.

[duncan macgregor]

Only just over four weeks to go before conversion. I expect by the very nature of conversion with people being forced to sell something to convert, the share price will be lower than it is today. This will be a short term drag on the share price. I think that my $1-59 in the competition will be very close to being the winner. My selection was done with TA trends looking forward. I notice PHAEDRUS selected $1-60 which i expect was done with a similar method. There is one good number that nobody has noticed so far which is obvious to me being a lateral Thinker. If i win i will donate the prize to the first person that posts what it is. Macdunk

[duncan macgregor]

[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;202415][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;201047]Competition to select NZO share price on conversion date June 30th
in the event of a tie the winner is the person with the correct score posting first
I will list you in posting order.
1,AMR 180c, 2, OILER 165c, 3,Macdunk 159c. 4,MATTYROO 158c.
5,SEAMUS 135c, 6,SERPIE 131c, 7, LIZ 120c, 8, STRAT157c.
9TRACKERS 168, 10, COLIN 170, 11,THE MACHINE 210c. 12,MALCOLM 200c.
13,SPOOK 172, 14,BIG BOB184c, 15,ZORBA 155c, 16, REMY 167c,
17 AMERICAN PSYCHO 175c 18 SHASTA 161c, 19RONTHEPOM 171c 20 PHAEDRUS 160.
21SHREWDY 169, 22 BERMUDA 149, 23 MORV 183c, 24 COALIE 188c
25 DIGGER 173c, 26 blank, 27 NITA 181c, 28 SUMMER NED 193c.
29 QOH 179c, 30 WK6332 225c 31 BALANCE $10-60 32 KS 162,
33 TOK3N 145c, 34 SHANE M 162.5c, 35CORRAN 156c, 36 MICK100 300c.
37 DSURF 154c, 38 SKEET 185c,39 MIBO 177c, 40 JAY 162c,
41 ZACMAN 187c, 42 GAMBLER33 115c, 43 ANUBUS144c, 44 BRUCETO9 164c.
45 romer 163c.46 HOOP 147c 47 RABBI 148c 48 ROTWEILLER 153c,
49 MINGEATHINAIOOS 150c,50 MANXMAN 195c, 51 MACDUFFY 146c, 52 BLOCKHEAD 198c,
53 777 226c,54 SWISSBOY 174c,55 AIRDALE166,56 CLIPS 178c,
57 PADDIE 196c,58 FOODEE 176, 59 BK152c,60 MPC182c,
61 STEVE 151,62 ONTHEMONEY 143, 63 LION 186, 64,TIM23 189c,
65 BOB C 190 66 RIF RAF 191c 67, OUT TO LUNCH 194 68 SEHNSUCHT888 192c,
69 PIETRADE 220c,70 ZAC 197c, 71,CAM 245C,72, CHALICE 214c,
73 GLENDOONIE 142c 74,UPSIDE_UMOP 159c,

[BigBob]

It's not inconceivable that a contributing factor in holding the share price somewhat back is normal "buy early - sell before spud" activity..... hopefully this time the SBS'ers will be proven wrong.... :)

[Nitaa]

Only just over four weeks to go before conversion. I expect by the very nature of conversion with people being forced to sell something to convert, the share price will be lower than it is today. This will be a short term drag on the share price. I think that my $1-59 in the competition will be very close to being the winner. My selection was done with TA trends looking forward. I notice PHAEDRUS selected $1-60 which i expect was done with a similar method. There is one good number that nobody has noticed so far which is obvious to me being a lateral Thinker. If i win i will donate the prize to the first person that posts what it is. Macdunk
I think P will be delighted that you put him in the same light as your good self.

Offer for you Duncan. To make it interesting i am prepared to offer you odds of 5 to 1 if you get the correct price when options stop trading at the end of the trading day 23rd June. If you are correct, you get to take home some extra loot and be GURU for the day. I look forward to the Dunkin challenge as i know you cannot resist such a thing

[trackers]

Only just over four weeks to go before conversion. I expect by the very nature of conversion with people being forced to sell something to convert, the share price will be lower than it is today. This will be a short term drag on the share price. I think that my $1-59 in the competition will be very close to being the winner. My selection was done with TA trends looking forward. I notice PHAEDRUS selected $1-60 which i expect was done with a similar method. There is one good number that nobody has noticed so far which is obvious to me being a lateral Thinker. If i win i will donate the prize to the first person that posts what it is. Macdunk

The only reasonable full numbers left are 199, 136-141, 132-134

[duncan macgregor]

I think P will be delighted that you put him in the same light as your good self.

Offer for you Duncan. To make it interesting i am prepared to offer you odds of 5 to 1 if you get the correct price when options stop trading at the end of the trading day 23rd June. If you are correct, you get to take home some extra loot and be GURU for the day. I look forward to the Dunkin challenge as i know you cannot resist such a thing NITA, The contest is the last sale price of NZO shares on friday the 27th of june at closing time. JEEZE i am glad there is only one rule in this contest otherwise you might get confused. I dont gamble NITA so your bet will have to be taken up else where. I will say however that my selection will be a lot closer to being right than yours and that you dont have the lateral thinking brain to work out what the good number is that is still available.
Lets see if you can work it out NITA will be interested to see if i under estimated you. Macdunk

[duncan macgregor]

The only reasonable full numbers left are 199, 136-141, 132-134 Not even warm. Macdunk

[Wilkins_Micawber]

From NZO website ... 13 million barrels reached on 27th May :)

[manxman]

Hasn't MINGEATHINAIOOS (entry no 49) had the same thought?

[sideline]

From NZO website ... 13 million barrels reached on 27th May :)

That's another 300000 barrels in 6 days, average still around 50k/day. Fantastic!

[Nitaa]

NITA, The contest is the last sale price of NZO shares on friday the 27th of june at closing time. JEEZE i am glad there is only one rule in this contest otherwise you might get confused. I dont gamble NITA so your bet will have to be taken up else where. I will say however that my selection will be a lot closer to being right than yours and that you dont have the lateral thinking brain to work out what the good number is that is still available.
Lets see if you can work it out NITA will be interested to see if i under estimated you. MacdunkYou answer is obvious macca. The answer is right b4 mine. Or more specificaly the number preceeding my selection.

[digger]

From NZO website ... 13 million barrels reached on 27th May :)

Excellent to see the rate holding in. The water cut is the usual.That is much less than expected but always expect it in the very near future.
We first achieved 11 million on 14/4 so in the next 43 days did another 2 million or most importantly 46,511 per day during this 43 day period. According to my cals TUI has averaged 43,478 since start up on 1st august 07. So in the last 43 days it is out preforming it's long run average.This is probably to do with all 4 wells now in production and with some tech feel for the the operation now that it has been going long enough for experience to start to kick in.[well i certainly got more work out of my digger in the second 43 days than i did in the first 43 ]
Now lets see when will we produce 60 million.Well we need another 47 million and at current rate pumping about 16.5 per year another three years is required. That water cut will kick in somewhere so throw in another year and a few days to be accurate so TUI will pump its 60th million on May 31, 2012

[shasta]

Only just over four weeks to go before conversion. I expect by the very nature of conversion with people being forced to sell something to convert, the share price will be lower than it is today. This will be a short term drag on the share price. I think that my $1-59 in the competition will be very close to being the winner. My selection was done with TA trends looking forward. I notice PHAEDRUS selected $1-60 which i expect was done with a similar method. There is one good number that nobody has noticed so far which is obvious to me being a lateral Thinker. If i win i will donate the prize to the first person that posts what it is. Macdunk

You mean $1.49, just short of the $1.50 conversion? (Bermuda picked it thou)

I think my pick of $1.61 will be very close

[777]

"so TUI will pump its 60th million on May 31, 2012"

Careful. Someone might want to start another competition.

Bought some more options today at 11.8. Now hold few more than I can convert but couldn't resist the lower price.

[blockhead]

"so TUI will pump its 60th million on May 31, 2012"

Careful. Someone might want to start another competition.

Bought some more options today at 11.8. Now hold few more than I can convert but couldn't resist the lower price.

Did the same myself yesterday @ 12.8 and today @ 12 but they let me down by 11.5% , heads holding up though

[tim23]

I guess if you are buying/holding the options now you are expecting to convert them; I"ve sold the ones I need to and plan to convert the balance.

[duncan macgregor]

You answer is obvious macca. The answer is right b4 mine. Or more specificaly the number preceeding my selection. Completely wrong NITA the blank is someone that doubled up on a number. I take it NZO investors are not all brain dead and someone will come up with the very likely number.
I knew that you wouldnt have the savvy to work it out NITA HAV ANOTHER GO YA MUG.
MACDUNK

[Nitaa]

Ok ok already.. $1.62 Happy now? Except that today is not the cut off day. The only things that is important is who will be right when the comp finishes.

[777]

The heads will be trading without the options trading for a few days before the competition ends. Question is, how quick will they climb then.

[fish]

[QUOTE=digger;203074]Excellent to see the rate holding in. The water cut is the usual.That is much less than expected but always expect it in the very near future.
We first achieved 11 million on 14/4 so in the next 43 days did another 2 million or most importantly 46,511 per day during this 43 day period. According to my cals TUI has averaged 43,478 since start up on 1st august 07. So in the last 43 days it is out preforming it's long run average.

12.5% of 46511 = 5814 barrels a day
Tapis = $135.14 =$784873
Nz dollar= .78365 us
therefore Gross income for tui = $1,002,621 per day
production cost= $10 barrel
therefore profit before tax and royalties is $944,000 per day at current rates

With this kind of income I think shareholders need to be compensated for having to raise so much money for options.
Told my wife today we would have no money come 30th june and found her sitting at a desk trying to work out a budget to pay bills -having to sell all my other shares plus cash in every investment and additionally may have to see the bank for a loan-

Should really be opening the champaigne with the success of tui and kupe and prc .

Any answers-a good one imo would be for nzo to announce a special dividend to be paid in july- it has the money -it has good reasons to do so-so why not

Digger would you consider taking up the proposal to nzo if there is enough support on this forum

[upside_umop]

its good to have chris here clarifying things regarding announcements etc.
but to ask on a forum to pay special dividends and what not, is taking it a little far imo..
i would suggest the best place to take this up is the agm.
if you feel overexposed and need extra cash to help out...you may need to just sell some of your beloved nzo!

for my 2 or 3 cents, i like the current direction. let nzo explore their 'options'. some have said too premature to expand? they have an experienced and competent ceo and an ever growing technical team. im sure they will be able to suss out potential acquistitions, and make decisions in all shareholders best interests...

there are so many possibilities...reduce kupe debt, more drills, acquisitions/mergers...a special dividend maybe even on their cards, who knows?! nzo team have stated they are assembling plans for what happens if options comes in..(i should actually say when..)

but yeah, im a tiny shareholder, i guess its easier for me to move my money around if i dont like what i see happening....

[digger]

"so TUI will pump its 60th million on May 31, 2012"

Careful. Someone might want to start another competition.

Bought some more options today at 11.8. Now hold few more than I can convert but couldn't resist the lower price.

That is correct.I am still working out the exact time and it is still too rough for me as i can not yet say for certain if that is the morning or afternoon.

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Yesterday when I posted (3993):
Could be worse
NZO minus 1 cent
AWE minus 30 cents ...
AWE had closed down 6% on the ASX while NZO stayed about the same.

Anubis posted (3998):
Most of the oilers on the ASX were down heavily today - between 5 and 10% on average. Presumably this was a reaction to the (relatively minor) drop in oil prices overnight. Oil could easily turn back up tonight and then tomorrow the oilers will swing back around.

NZO is very well supported by comparison – appears almost immune to these factors on a day-to-day basis – moving to its own rhythm. In fact it feels to me like there’s a lid being kept on it. It might be the option effect, but it almost has the feel of one or more big sellers keeping the price down at around $1.64.

One of the reasons the ASX oilers are down so heavily today is because they had such a good run up the last week or two – during which period NZO has been practically stagnant. Sure, it had a great run up before that point, so there may be some exhaustion, but it just feels like it could pop again at any time.

Well Anubis was right the ASX Energy indices up 5.2% today and AWE was up 27 cents or 6%
Anubis also posted:

If Anubis is right on the big seler/s as well then once the big seller/s are done and the rights matter is all over rover then the SP can be expected to ...

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Yesterday when I posted (3993):
Could be worse
NZO minus 1 cent
AWE minus 30 cents ...
AWE had closed down 6% on the ASX while NZO stayed about the same.

Anubis posted (3998):
Most of the oilers on the ASX were down heavily today - between 5 and 10% on average. Presumably this was a reaction to the (relatively minor) drop in oil prices overnight. Oil could easily turn back up tonight and then tomorrow the oilers will swing back around.

NZO is very well supported by comparison – appears almost immune to these factors on a day-to-day basis – moving to its own rhythm. In fact it feels to me like there’s a lid being kept on it. It might be the option effect, but it almost has the feel of one or more big sellers keeping the price down at around $1.64.

One of the reasons the ASX oilers are down so heavily today is because they had such a good run up the last week or two – during which period NZO has been practically stagnant. Sure, it had a great run up before that point, so there may be some exhaustion, but it just feels like it could pop again at any time.

Well Anubis was right the ASX Energy indices up 5.2% today and AWE was up 27 cents or 6%

If Anubis is right on the big seller/s as well then once the big seller/s are done and the rights matter is all over rover then the SP can be expected to ...

[Bilo]

[quote=digger;203074]Excellent to see the rate holding in. The water cut is the usual.That is much less than expected but always expect it in the very near future.
....Told my wife today we would have no money come 30th june and found her sitting at a desk trying to work out a budget to pay bills -having to sell all my other shares plus cash in every investment and additionally may have to see the bank for a loan-

Should really be opening the champaigne with the success of tui and kupe and prc .

Any answers-a good one imo would be for nzo to announce a special dividend to be paid in july- it has the money -it has good reasons to do so-so why not

Digger would you consider taking up the proposal to nzo if there is enough support on this forum:eek:

I agree with you Fish. It seems as if NZO think that they have done enough to get the options "over the line". They have only barely indicated to us that they might have done enough.

7pc over the line is not a pass when interest rates are 10pc pa. What will they do with all this money - on top of all the cash that they have?

They could be heading for a "fail" in their main task which was to convert the options. The latest presentation doesn't indicate how they will get up. Chris was only expecting a portion of them too covert - very negative - bordering on a loser mentality - too kiwi for words. I bet an Australian in a similar situation would nail it to the mast big time and pronounce how great we are.

IMO a little more is required, be it a Kupe resource upgrade ( Origin must be keen to give this full wraps under takeover and all) or Tui upgrade (AWE are busy taking-over now) or some numbers supporting a dividend from their huge cash flow, such as Fish suggests...

The "reminder" just says have a chat to the bank manager in case - there is not a compelling argument at (160cps), yet DS. Late by a couple of weeks is simply not good enough.:(

[duncan macgregor]

Ok ok already.. $1.62 Happy now? Except that today is not the cut off day. The only things that is important is who will be right when the comp finishes. I take it you cant work out the missing number then NITA?. One thing about traders that that investors dont have is a logical brain that can work out the not so obvious from every angle. One simple rule and a few numbers and its beyond you.
HAVANOTHERGOYAMUG. Macdunk

[tim23]

Does anyone still care?!

[fish]

[QUOTE=upside_umop;203115]its good to have chris here clarifying things regarding announcements etc.
but to ask on a forum to pay special dividends and what not, is taking it a little far imo..
i would suggest the best place to take this up is the agm.
if you feel overexposed and need extra cash to help out...you may need to just sell some of your beloved nzo!

Agree largely with your post-I do like the direction nzo is going-but i think leaving such a big issue until the agm is leaving things a little late . It doesnt take an agm to decide about dividends-look how the april divi came out of the blue.

We are in a very unusual situation-most of us were not expecting the options to be in the money until a couple of months or less ago . If one doesnt convert you now allow dilution of your shareholding . Each day there are about 5 million options for sale and few buyers . It is likely a lot of loyal long term shareholders are going to lose out to short term traders and speculaters because the large number of options on the market will depress the market until end june.

Personally i will be able to raise the money to convert all the options .I will never sell a share such as nzo so far below what I consider its fundamental value . It is likely a lot of mums and dads small shareholders will not be in such a position .

We do have a problem-i feel it needs attention -a forum like this allows free and open discussion .I welcome all views and all suggstions .

By the way what do you think of my calculation that gross revenue is now possibly over 1 million dollars a day -a p/e ration of 1 to 1 !




a

[Mr Tommy]

Heres a quote from 2004 when NZOG sold 4% of Kupe to Mitsui
http://www.crownminerals.govt.nz/cms/news/2004/news_item.2007-05-08.2529045946?searchterm=origin

NZOG said the purchase by Mitsui of a 4% Kupe interest would leave NZOG with an equity of 15% in the field. The sale contained a provision, subject to certain conditions, for a repurchase of 2.5%.


So now with possibly just under $200 million coming from options conversion, is there a possibility to take up this 2.5% repurchase agreement. Does anyone know the conditions?

[tim23]

Fish - I can see just over 2 mil OD s for sale in the depth has it built up to 5 mil some days?

[Nitaa]

I take it you cant work out the missing number then NITA?. One thing about traders that that investors dont have is a logical brain that can work out the not so obvious from every angle. One simple rule and a few numbers and its beyond you.
HAVANOTHERGOYAMUG. Macdunk
Flip side of course is a smart investor is not hoping to make a 10% gain or more every day. Many traders are gamblers which is just like gambling on futures and forex trading.. that simple.

Here in Malaysia we are now having students (with no knowledge any money markets) trying to convince investors into making money on forex......next

[fish]

Fish - I can see just over 2 mil OD s for sale in the depth has it built up to 5 mil some days?
Was around 5.5 million mid morning today and usually is between 4.5 to 5.5 million during trading last couple weeks .

[duncan macgregor]

NITA, Dont tell me you cant work it out. Very simple logical number that looks like being right in the money. Have a good think about it i dont want to place you in the brain dead category. Macdunk

[tim23]

Thanks Fish - thats a lot of ODS!

[Unicorn]

By the way what do you think of my calculation that gross revenue is now possibly over 1 million dollars a day -a p/e ratio of 1 to 1 !


I think that is quite misleading and wrong. P/e is not calculated on revenue - expenses, royalties, tax and amortisation need to be taken into account. And $366M with a market cap of $650M gives 1.8, not 1.

First half earnings were $41M. Some very rough estimates for the rest of the year - Q3 income was $58M, implies earnings ~$40M. Q4 income perhaps $68M, implies earnings ~$45M (less if Momoho cost falls in Q4).

So we have annual earnings ~$126M, market cap ~(400 x 1.62) = $650M

Therefore p/e for the year ~5.1 (would have been ~3.3 without NZOOD)

If you add the increase in PRC valuation (say $70M), underlying earnings leap to ~$196M, p/e ~3.3 (~2.1 pre NZOOD).

These are not accurate figures, but a lot closer to reality than your suggested p/e of 1.

[KiwiBear]

The chart is fairly self explanatory. There is an old saying that markets form “V” bottoms and rounded tops. If that old saying holds true, then the rounded top that started to form could be the beginning of a technically overdue correction.

The issue with the crude market is that outside forces (political, geo-political, etc.) can have drastic effects. So anyone looking to time the top needs patience, small position size and wide stops.


Oil based products are only one part of the broader commodities picture that has been under extreme inflationary pressure recently. And as long as we’re all filling up the gas tank and heading into a national election both here and in the US, energy costs will continue to be a hot topic.

[fish]

[QUOTE=Unicorn;203174]I think that is quite misleading and wrong. P/e is not calculated on revenue - expenses, royalties, tax and amortisation need to be taken into account. And $366M with a market cap of $650M gives 1.8, not 1.

Unicorn-Many thanks for that correction -I have every confidence that you are technically correct using the current financial year . Your advice is always much appreciated

I was really using just the current -ie past 1 month profits and didnt take into account tax or whether there were still tax credits available .I believe only a small % options have currently been exercised. However assuming they are all exercised by 30th june this will give nzo an extra boost of working capital and increased returns-if only interest initially. We havnt also taken into account interest earned on the current massive daily profits on the sale of tui oil

[fish]

[QUOTE=KiwiBear;203178]The chart is fairly self explanatory.
http://www.upstreamonline.com/market_data/?id=markets_oil
The real current chart in contrast indicates a strong upward direction

[KiwiBear]

The Quandry is though NZ Oil'n gas has formed a Pennant or symmetrical triangle with decreasing volume - either a postive or negative breakout is eminent only a price breakout will show the way of the next trend! It could also be a head and shoulder pattern!
Which is a warning of a downtrend

Pennant: A continuation chart pattern that is simliar to the flag, except that it is more horizontal and resembles a small symmetrical triangle. Like the flag, the pennant usually lasts from one to three weeks and is typically followed by a resumption of the prior trend
While there are instances when symmetrical triangles mark important trend reversals, they more often mark a continuation of the current trend. Regardless of the nature of the pattern, continuation or reversal, the direction of the next major move can only be determined after a valid breakout.

[KiwiBear]

Breakout Direction: The future direction of the breakout can only be determined after the break has occurred. Sound obvious enough, but attempting to guess the direction of the breakout can be dangerous. Even though a continuation pattern is supposed to breakout in the direction of the long-term trend, this is not always the case.

Breakout Confirmation: For a break to be considered valid, it should be on a closing basis. Some traders apply a price (3% break) or time (sustained for 3 days) filter to confirm validity. The breakout should occur with an expansion in volume, especially on upside breakouts.
Return to Apex: After the breakout (up or down), the apex can turn into future support or resistance. The price sometimes returns to the apex or a support/resistance level around the breakout before resuming in the direction of the breakout.

Price Target: There are two methods to estimate the extent of the move after the breakout. First, the widest distance of the symmetrical triangle can be measured and applied to the breakout point. Second, a trend line can be drawn parallel to the pattern's trend line that slopes (up or down) in the direction of the break. The extension of this line will mark a potential breakout target.
Edwards and Magee suggest that roughly 75% of symmetrical triangles are continuation patterns and the rest mark reversals. The reversal patterns can be especially difficult to analyze and often have false breakouts. Even so, we should not anticipate the direction of the breakout, but rather wait for it to happen. Further analysis should be applied to the breakout by looking for gaps, accelerated price movements, and volume for confirmation. Confirmation is especially important for upside breakouts.

Hope this helps those who hold heeps of this stock - I wish I had the money to have had earlier, but I'm long cashed up, and paid for my pedal powered Holiday in France end of next month.

[bermuda]

The Quandry is though NZ Oil'n gas has formed a Pennant or symmetrical triangle with decreasing volume - either a postive or negative breakout is eminent only a price breakout will show the way of the next trend! It could also be a head and shoulder pattern!
Which is a warning of a downtrend

Pennant: A continuation chart pattern that is simliar to the flag, except that it is more horizontal and resembles a small symmetrical triangle. Like the flag, the pennant usually lasts from one to three weeks and is typically followed by a resumption of the prior trend
While there are instances when symmetrical triangles mark important trend reversals, they more often mark a continuation of the current trend. Regardless of the nature of the pattern, continuation or reversal, the direction of the next major move can only be determined after a valid breakout.

KiwiBear,

This stock is about to bloom.

Good to see you at the meeting. The National Convention!

Cheers

[tricha]

KiwiBear,

This stock is about to bloom.

Good to see you at the meeting. The National Convention!

Cheers

Oil and gas producer Australian Worldwide Exploration is gearing up to boost reserves at its Tui oilfield off the coast of New Zealand to more than 50 million barrels next month, doubling the reserves the company said was there when the project was sanctioned

Sure is Bermuda, about to erupt :D

[digger]

Oil and gas producer Australian Worldwide Exploration is gearing up to boost reserves at its Tui oilfield off the coast of New Zealand to more than 50 million barrels next month, doubling the reserves the company said was there when the project was sanctioned

Sure is Bermuda, about to erupt :D

Were getting there then.Sounds good and certainly in the correct direction but still short of the final figure.One step at a time then.

[zorba]

Oil and gas producer Australian Worldwide Exploration is gearing up to boost reserves at its Tui oilfield off the coast of New Zealand to more than 50 million barrels next month, doubling the reserves the company said was there when the project was sanctioned




Tricha,

Is the above a quote ...... if so could you point me at the source.

Thanks,
Z

[zac]

From the Australian today:
AWE's Tui oilfield to doubles its reserves
Matt Chambers | May 30, 2008
OIL and gas producer Australian Worldwide Exploration is gearing up to boost reserves at its Tui oilfield off the coast of New Zealand to more than 50 million barrels next month, doubling the reserves the company said was there when the project was sanctioned.

Sydney-based AWE is reviewing how much it can get out of the profitable Tui field and is planning to announce new reserves there in mid-June.

It is understood the company could boost reserves to 55 million barrels at the site, which started production in July last year. Original reserves stood at 26.8 million barrels.

Last week was an eventful one for the field, where extension of the charter of the floating production ship Umuroa by five years enabled the company to boost Tui reserves to 47 million barrels from a previous figure of 41.7 million barrels announced in November.

That, along with oil prices marching relentlessly higher, pushed shares up 10 per cent to a record close of $4.55 last week.

The company, which owns 42.5 per cent of Tui and is the operator, was also charged by Maritime New Zealand for an oil spill from the Umuroa in October, for which it faces a fine of up to $200,000. AWE said it would pay any penalties.

[trackers]

Tricha,

Is the above a quote ...... if so could you point me at the source.

Thanks,
Z

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23780185-643,00.html

Was in the ASB Morning Brief (should sign up, its a good summary of the day's events)

[blockhead]

Is this as good as an official reserves upgrade or what ??

[zac]

It looks like a leak to the mate in the Press out of AWE.

[trackers]

Is this as good as an official reserves upgrade or what ??

I'd say its accurate, but there's a bit of journalistic creative licensing going on, there's nothing official from AWE.....

[blockhead]

Heres the answer for the meantime,

https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=1957446

[trackers]

hAHAHAHa, awesome:




NZO
30/05/2008
GENERAL

REL: 1036 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited

GENERAL: NZO: Tui reserves assessment still underway

Having become aware of an Australian news report which speculated on a Tui
reserves upgrade, New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd advises that at this time the
proven and probable reserves (2P) for the Tui Area Oil Fields are 47 million
barrels and a further reserves reassessment of the Tui is still to be
completed.

The 2P reserves were increased to 47 million barrels on 21 May 2008, as a
result of an extension of the charter for the Floating Production Storage and
Offloading (FPSO) vessel, "Umuroa".

The field operator, AWE, on behalf of the joint venture, is continuing to
review the Tui reserves. This review was initiated in March because of the
continued strong production performance of the reservoirs.

An announcement will follow the completion and consideration by the joint
venture of the review. At this stage, NZOG expects that this will be
completed by around the end of June 2008.

ENDS

[upside_umop]

I dont know if anyone has noticed...but NZO is the focus share for the National Bank Share Trading. Now its getting attention....

[the machine]

I dont know if anyone has noticed...but NZO is the focus share for the National Bank Share Trading. Now its getting attention....

upside - as a long way away from the action over here in perth - would appreciate if you can elaborate further -thanks

M

[777]

Good case for selling heads and buying options at current prices.

[upside_umop]

Here Machine, I know its long...but a good assessment.


NZX - New Zealand Oil & Gas (NZO.NZ) `Hitting the Sweet Spot`



Recent Share Price: NZ$1.63

Target Share Price: NZ$2.00

Market Capitalisation: NZ$0.435b


New Zealand Oil & Gas (‘NZO’) listed on the NZX in 1981. The company was established to purchase permits for the exploration of oil and gas in offshore Taranaki. The company later extended its exploration activities to Australia through a 58% interest in Pan Pacific Petroleum. In December 2001 NZO distributed that interest to its shareholders via a scheme of arrangement. In May last year NZO reduced its interest in Pike River Coal to approximately 31% as a result of the IPO and the introduction of two Indian coke manufacturers as major shareholders. NZO had obtained its Pike River coal interests when it merged with Oil Fields NL in 1988.

NZO’s interests are currently centred on the Tui Area oil field, the Kupe gas field development, the Pike River Coal project and the continued exploration for oil in offshore Taranaki.

The Tui Area oil field project is located in the offshore Taranaki Basin some 50km off the coast. NZO has a 12.5% interest in the oil field. The operator is ASX listed Australian Worldwide Exploration (‘AWE’) which has a 42.5% interest in the project. Pan Pacific Petroleum (NZX and ASX listed) has a 10% interest. Production commenced from the field in July 2007. Capital expenditure to bring the field into production totalled US$274.4m (c/f US$240m originally estimated) and NZO’s share was US$34.5m, which was funded by both debt and additional equity. This was paid back from the cash flow from the first four months of production from the field. Daily production at 50,000 barrels per day was initially planned with a rapid decline in production expected thereafter due to ‘water coning’. The field continues to perform ahead of modelled expectations and is reported to continuing to produce at over 40,000 barrels per day. For the current FY ( i.e. the year ended 30 June 08) Tui is predicted to produce 13m barrels (NZO share 1.625m barrels) but we think 13.9m barrels are more likely (NZO share 1.737m barrels). For FY09 we predict NZO’s share of Tui production at 0.850m barrels.

Tui is predicted to have a relatively short life based on 2P (i.e. proven and probable) reserves of 45m barrels (the reserves are currently under review by AWE and the results are due to be announced before year end). Although the flow rate will decrease due to ‘water coning’ and as the field empties , production from the field should nonetheless continue until 2016.

We forecast NZO to record EBITDA of $167.9m from its 12.5% share of Tui in FY08 (up from a recent forecast of $141m ) declining to $118.3m in FY09 (an upwards revision from $37m under earlier lower oil production and price assumptions) and staying at around $118m in FY10 (compared with $88m earlier forecast). Our latest oil price estimates have the price of oil averaging US$96 a barrel over FY08, US$120 a barrel over FY09 and US$112.50 a barrel over FY10. Our previous forecast had oil averaging US$90 a barrel over the forecast period. We value NZO’s 12.5% interest in Tui at $273m or $1.05 per ordinary share currently on issue based on DCF methodology.

NZO has a 15% interest in the Kupe field which is located 35km offshore Taranaki and is in the same general area as the Maui field. It was discovered by NZO in 1986. Origin Energy is the operator and has a 50% interest. The Kupe Central Field Area has 2P reserves of 254 petajoules of gas, 14.7m of light oil/condensate and 1.1m tonnes of LPG. The field is scheduled to commence production in mid-2009 at an initial output rate of 20 petajoules pa, 5,271 light oil per day and 250 tonnes per day of LPG. The cost to bring the field into production is currently estimated to exceed NZ$1bn. NZO has entered into a senior debt facility for $125m with Westpac to fund its effective share of the capital cost. Production is expected to run for a period of 19 years. NZO will have an effective direct share in the sale of 1.0m barrels of oil equivalent in both 2010 and 2011, declining just modestly per annum thereafter. We estimate NZO to record EBITDA of $57m from Kupe in FY10, rising to $60m in FY11 and falling slightly to around $58m in FY12. We value NZO’s 12.5% share of Kupe at $185.5m or 71c per current NZO share on a DCFbasis.

NZO has exploration prospects located in offshore Taranaki. They are within the permit areas that contain both Tui and Kupe. Drilling of the Momoho well in the Kupe permit will commence later this Subject to the attached disclaimer 2 month. We understand that the Momoho exploration well will cost NZO about $8m or 3 cents per share. We have assessed Momoho as having a 15% chance of success and, therefore, have placed a value of 5 cents per share on this prospect, net of costs.

NZO owns 30.6% of NZX listed Pike River Coal (‘PRC’). The IPO in July last year saw new equity amounting to 42.5% of the company’s capital raised from the market. In March this year PRC raised a further NZ$60m via a 1:4 rights issue at 90c and a US$30mn convertible notes issue to Liberty Harbor (a US investment fund). NZO took up its rights entitlement in full and PRC’s coal mine development is now 100% equity funded. The Pike River coalfield, which is located 46kms from Greymouth, is NZ’s largest known deposit of ultra high fluidity and low ash coking coal with an estimated resource of 17.6m tonnes. The coal seam is expected to be intercepted in July this year and production to commence thereafter. For the year ended 30 June 2009, 200,000 tonnes are expected to be produced. For subsequent FYs annual production is forecast to average 1m tonnes. 70% of the first 3 years production has been contracted to be sold to two India coking coal manufacturers and to Nippon Steel of Japan. The two Indian companies own a combined 21% of the company.

PRC will sell all of its coal at the prevailing market price. The price of coking coal has soared over the past year. In July last year the price was US$100 a tonne. Today the market price is about US$300 a tonne. We expect PRC to post an initial profit of $25m in FY09 before it jumps to $92m in FY10 as production increases to around 1m tonnes per annum . NZO’s 30.6% interest in PRC is presently worth $144m or 55c per current NZO share based on the current market price. The current PRC market price of $1.71 is a little above our target price of $1.55 and hence our valuation of the NZO interest of $130m or 50c per current NZO share.

Putting the estimated values of NZO’s interests together and after deducting capitalised overheads as well as diluting for the listed options exercisable at $1.50 per share on 30 June this year, we derive a value of $2.00 per fully diluted NZO share. We target NZO shares at $2.00 in 12 months time.

NZO currently has 138.5m options on issue listed on the NZX which, as noted above, expire on 30 June 2008 with an exercise price of NZ$1.50 (code: NZOOD). The options currently trade at just under 13c. The exercise of the options could provide the company with an equity injection of up to NZ$208m at a time when funds are not required to support current operations. The company has signalled that it is looking for growth and we anticipate that NZO will utilise the additional equity funding (and strong Tui cash flows) to pursue a number of investment options open to it viz, exploration opportunities within the existing permits; ‘farming’ into permits held by other companies; new exploration permits; asset purchases and, finally, corporate acquisitions . We think the company will use the option proceeds for a mixture of these potential opportunities.

The exercise of the options in full would increase NZO’s market capitalisation by approximately 50% to $625m. NZO’s weighting in the NZX50 Index would increase to about 1.5% (the same weighting as Fisher & Paykel Appliances). Liquidity would be improved with 392m shares on issue. Funding of the exercise price may cause some ‘digestion’ problems leading up to exercise date. The options represent an alternative means of entry to the shares.

We expect NZO to report earnings per share of 26.3c this FY and 24.5c in FY09 (after diluting for the options). Although the shares have run up strongly helped by the soaring international price of oil, they are lowly rated relative to projected earnings (FY08 PE 6.2x and 6.7x FY09 earnings ). NZO is now profitable and declaring dividends. For this FY we expect a dividend of 5c fully imputed (providing a gross dividend yield of 4.6% at the current market price) and for FY09 3c per share also fully imputed.

[upside_umop]

Good case for selling heads and buying options at current prices.

yeah i had a look..i could save $300..but then i'd have to get a cheque book!

[Chris Roberts]

Heres a quote from 2004 when NZOG sold 4% of Kupe to Mitsui
http://www.crownminerals.govt.nz/cms/news/2004/news_item.2007-05-08.2529045946?searchterm=origin

NZOG said the purchase by Mitsui of a 4% Kupe interest would leave NZOG with an equity of 15% in the field. The sale contained a provision, subject to certain conditions, for a repurchase of 2.5%.


So now with possibly just under $200 million coming from options conversion, is there a possibility to take up this 2.5% repurchase agreement. Does anyone know the conditions?

The option to repurchase was subject to various conditions and expired in 2005.

[Dr_Who]

There should be some weakness in NZO coming to the option expiring end of June. It is a big capital raising compare to the market cap.

[Nitaa]

There should be some weakness in NZO coming to the option expiring end of June. It is a big capital raising compare to the market cap.I am sure there are some big boys coming to play. Yes your right in normal circumstances we will see constant selling pressure from the options where some leave it too late. In saying that, i expect a couple of days of buying pressure as certain info gets released to the market. eg. tui upgrade (although somewhat already factered into) an the potential and strong likelyhood of success at mohohohoho.

Risky time to be a trader in options at present. arggg.. the risk v the reward.. im loving it

[777]

Price of oil down,less than a month to go for the options, PRC, and a long weekend don't help. Price is holding up in Australia though. Just trying to pluck up the courage to buy some more options.

[Nitaa]

Duncan.. Your pick is virtually on the mark so far.. Very well done. But just like a good nite with the wife, its a marathon and not a sprint. Therefore, i strongly suspect you may be very premature.. another 4 weeks to go..

[duncan macgregor]

Duncan.. Your pick is virtually on the mark so far.. Very well done. But just like a good nite with the wife, its a marathon and not a sprint. Therefore, i strongly suspect you may be very premature.. another 4 weeks to go.. NITA the number that has a great chance of winning is still available. The first poster not already entered to ask me to select it for them gets it. I thought a person like your good self who has been a broad would have would come up with it by now. This is obvious to me, but then i study people, and market trends. If nobody asks for it, i will E-Mail you in a weeks time, with what it is, and you can inform the brain dead who no doubt will be up in arms.
Macdunk

[upside_umop]

How can i not take this opportunity...MD, ill take your special, special number please.

[duncan macgregor]

How can i not take this opportunity...MD, ill take your special, special number please.ITS DONE MY FRIEND.
Upside_UMOP. You are now on at $1-59
REASON WHY
Macdunk took that number at the Auckland convention in a bet with the other members the prize going to the charity of choice.
When digger offered a prize in this contest i being the person running the contest am not allowed to win making my selection available for the next person who was bright enough to work it out. Congratulations UMOP you have a great chance according to NITA. Investing is all about seeing the not so obvious, when others run blind, understanding the rules and using them up to the hilt. Macdunk

[777]

Only just over four weeks to go before conversion. I expect by the very nature of conversion with people being forced to sell something to convert, the share price will be lower than it is today. This will be a short term drag on the share price. I think that my $1-59 in the competition will be very close to being the winner. My selection was done with TA trends looking forward. I notice PHAEDRUS selected $1-60 which i expect was done with a similar method. There is one good number that nobody has noticed so far which is obvious to me being a lateral Thinker. If i win i will donate the prize to the first person that posts what it is. Macdunk


The braindead would take from this posting you made that you had entered 1.59 for yourself......

"I think that my $1-59 in the competition will be very close to being the winner"

[duncan macgregor]

[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;202999][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;202415][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;201047]Competition to select NZO share price on conversion date June 30th
in the event of a tie the winner is the person with the correct score posting first
I will list you in posting order.
1,AMR 180c, 2, OILER 165c, 3,Macdunk 159c. 4,MATTYROO 158c.
5,SEAMUS 135c, 6,SERPIE 131c, 7, LIZ 120c, 8, STRAT157c.
9TRACKERS 168, 10, COLIN 170, 11,THE MACHINE 210c. 12,MALCOLM 200c.
13,SPOOK 172, 14,BIG BOB184c, 15,ZORBA 155c, 16, REMY 167c,
17 AMERICAN PSYCHO 175c 18 SHASTA 161c, 19RONTHEPOM 171c 20 PHAEDRUS 160.
21SHREWDY 169, 22 BERMUDA 149, 23 MORV 183c, 24 COALIE 188c
25 DIGGER 173c, 26 blank, 27 NITA 181c, 28 SUMMER NED 193c.
29 QOH 179c, 30 WK6332 225c 31 BALANCE $10-60 32 KS 162,
33 TOK3N 145c, 34 SHANE M 162.5c, 35CORRAN 156c, 36 MICK100 300c.
37 DSURF 154c, 38 SKEET 185c,39 MIBO 177c, 40 JAY 162c,
41 ZACMAN 187c, 42 GAMBLER33 115c, 43 ANUBUS144c, 44 BRUCETO9 164c.
45 romer 163c.46 HOOP 147c 47 RABBI 148c 48 ROTWEILLER 153c,
49 MINGEATHINAIOOS 150c,50 MANXMAN 195c, 51 MACDUFFY 146c, 52 BLOCKHEAD 198c,
53 777 226c,54 SWISSBOY 174c,55 AIRDALE166,56 CLIPS 178c,
57 PADDIE 196c,58 FOODEE 176, 59 BK152c,60 MPC182c,
61 STEVE 151,62 ONTHEMONEY 143, 63 LION 186, 64,TIM23 189c,
65 BOB C 190 66 RIF RAF 191c 67, OUT TO LUNCH 194 68 SEHNSUCHT888 192c,
69 PIETRADE 220c,70 ZAC 197c, 71,CAM 245C,72, CHALICE 214c,
73 GLENDOONIE 142c 74,UPSIDE_UMOP 159c,

[bermuda]

[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;202999][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;202415] Macdunk is not allowed to win hence two at 159c

Getting a bit nearer my number ( 149 ) despite all the good news. lol

If ever there was a killer for a sp it is option conversion. Seen it happen so many times.

Even affecting PPP and PRC.

It is a lot of money. But hey despite the option dilution ( they will be exercised ) this share goes north of $2.00 real quick. ( after June 30th that is )

[the machine]

pity nzo chose to make this announcement, rather it should have been awe as operator.

also, the inference that upgrade is expected at end of june [is after the options cease trading]

unless nzo can come up with some very positive news in next 2 weeks [3 at the outside]
the options are dead in the water and there goes the capital raising.

mr market has shown his hand today and it was not nice

M






NZO
30/05/2008
GENERAL

REL: 1036 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited

GENERAL: NZO: Tui reserves assessment still underway

Having become aware of an Australian news report which speculated on a Tui
reserves upgrade, New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd advises that at this time the
proven and probable reserves (2P) for the Tui Area Oil Fields are 47 million
barrels and a further reserves reassessment of the Tui is still to be
completed.

The 2P reserves were increased to 47 million barrels on 21 May 2008, as a
result of an extension of the charter for the Floating Production Storage and
Offloading (FPSO) vessel, "Umuroa".

The field operator, AWE, on behalf of the joint venture, is continuing to
review the Tui reserves. This review was initiated in March because of the
continued strong production performance of the reservoirs.

An announcement will follow the completion and consideration by the joint
venture of the review. At this stage, NZOG expects that this will be
completed by around the end of June 2008.

ENDS

[the machine]

Here Machine, I know its long...but a good assessment.

thanks upside_umop

of course nzo have 15% of kupe and not 12.5%

the coverage is good to have.

m

[the machine]

although unlikely to happen it would be nice if when nzo make announcements re oil they inlude the ruling tapis price.

ie note the tapis price as at time of this announcement is ....

Mr market sees WTI and seems to overlook tapis, against which tui is benchmarked and this point needs to be made more often than is the case so far.

yes we are in sales

M

[bermuda]

[QUOTE=the machine;203416]pity nzo chose to make this announcement, rather it should have been awe as operator.

also, the inference that upgrade is expected at end of june [is after the options cease trading]

unless nzo can come up with some very positive news in next 2 weeks [3 at the outside]
the options are dead in the water and there goes the capital raising.

mr market has shown his hand today and it was not nice

M

Hi,
That was a big call and I respect it.

This is how I see it.

I chose 149 cents because I have seen this happen before. (I was wrong.)

But later on the reality of Kupe x3 really got to me and I knew that the competition winner will be north of $1.50.

It will be close but I am very sure the smart money is on buying the options. I mean here we have about 3 brokers saying its worth $1.80-$2.00 in an industry which puts a severe discount on oil companies.

So , for my money, these options get exercised. There is plenty of money in the world and stories like this do get around.

Go and get as many as you can get.Push the BUY button and have a well earned FEAST.

I will repeat that lest there are any doubters

BUY......and dont worry about the oil price on a daily basis. The fundamentals are there.

China/India growth will outpower demand destruction ( in the west )

This is an outstanding buy. And that is an outstanding but truthful RAMP.

[COLIN]

IMHO the weakness in the options, as well as the heads, over the last few days is largely due to all those smaller shareholders who are receiving their Option Conversion Notices in the mail and suddenly realising that they don't have the cash to exercise the options and so they had better get rid of them while they can get something for them. (We need some anti'dumping legislation, here!)
And it will be a pity if the official announcement of the TUI reserves upgrade takes place after the last trading day for the options - as appears likely to happen.

[777]

Good to see a buyer come in in the last 15 minutes for 500,000 at 9c. Indicates that there are some big buyers out there.

[Wilkins_Micawber]

mr market has shown his hand today and it was not nice
M


IMHO, the drop (1.9%) is small (a good sign), considering the things acting against NZO on Friday ...
1. Long weekend - traders want out - esp with uncertainty of the DOW at present
2. Options reminder notices received
3. TUI upgrade not expected until end of June (may still come before 23rd - who knows)
4. Pike dropped as well (probably due to notice that it will be a few weeks before advancing through the Hawera fault) so possible re-rating of PRC now after 23rd June (date NZOODs stop trading).

[Nitaa]

ITS DONE MY FRIEND.
Upside_UMOP. You are now on at $1-59
REASON WHY
Macdunk took that number at the Auckland convention in a bet with the other members the prize going to the charity of choice.
When digger offered a prize in this contest i being the person running the contest am not allowed to win making my selection available for the next person who was bright enough to work it out. Congratulations UMOP you have a great chance according to NITA. Investing is all about seeing the not so obvious, when others run blind, understanding the rules and using them up to the hilt. Macdunk2 t things md. since you are running the comp you can do what you like.. wg change your own rules even. next thing why would i want your number when i believe my number has a better prospect. that will be foolish no?

You are suprising somewhat right in your accessment about investing. The ability to see things that the majority dont. therefore, the ones who got in early likes bermuda, W, digger etc saw the potential that most nrokers didnt see and certainly most investors didnt see, including yourself.

Wheres the risk in nzo at present? Pike is obvious and potential correction or slump in commodity prices. Therefore i see the range in the next 12 months being anywhere from $1.10 to $4.00

[duncan macgregor]

NITA, I did not change the rules. The competition changed when digger kindly offered a prize to the winner. nobody running a competition should be allowed to win a prize. My selection was therefore not allowed making my selection available to another player. Its pointless getting your bloomers in a knot saying your pick is better than mine who cares. I would now say that my very first valuation of NZO options will be nearer to being right at 5c making the correct selection at $1-55 than the $1-59. A lot of cashing up to convert in the last four weeks you will find. Macdunk

[Nitaa]

I didnt say you did change the rules. i make a lot of typos in my comments and make no apologies for them in case you took it the wrong way.

IMO your pick is premature. your pick and my pick are both likely to be correct at some stage. Its like have a clock that doesnt work and comparing it to a clock that is always 1 second to slow. the clock that doesnt work will be right 2 times a day and the other one will never be right. However i would always use the second clock as a guide than the first. Hows that for an analogy? In short i stick to my pick of 1.81 over your pick. The question now for you is, do you have the forsight to understand where nzo will be in 2 years time?

[Nitaa]

NITA, I did not change the rules. The competition changed when digger kindly offered a prize to the winner. nobody running a competition should be allowed to win a prize. My selection was therefore not allowed making my selection available to another player. Its pointless getting your bloomers in a knot saying your pick is better than mine who cares. I would now say that my very first valuation of NZO options will be nearer to being right at 5c making the correct selection at $1-55 than the $1-59. A lot of cashing up to convert in the last four weeks you will find. MacdunkNormally the person and their family cannot enter the comp. That means no one can win since we are one big happy family no?

ps. Watch the trading and volume in the options in the next few weeks. exciting times ahead

[the machine]

any news on the rig shifting to momoho?

M

[Hoop]

................. A lot of cashing up to convert in the last four weeks you will find. Macdunk

How many NZO shareholders hold PRC??
Could PRC price be affected short-term by this cashing up to fund the NZOOD conversion??

[Dr_Who]

Combination of oil price dropping $4 and expiry of options are scaring the pants off the nervous inexperienced mum and dad wannabe oil investors?

[COLIN]

How many NZO shareholders hold PRC??
Could PRC price be affected short-term by this cashing up to fund the NZOOD conversion??
Response to first question: Quite a number, I would imagine.
Response to second question: Yes.

I warned of this some time ago.

[fish]

[QUOTE=COLIN;203567]Response to first question: Quite a number, I would imagine.
Response to second question.

My impression is you are quite right Colin .
Sold prc myself last week as i have ended up with more options than i intended to buy
Then looked at the option price during friday afternoon-only 8 cents-and blow me down couldnt help myself buying more-and they came in small odd parcels so probably small investors .
Will be a trip to see the bank manager next week to see how much a loan i can get .
At least contact have shot up again -might have to sell the rest of mine next week to fund the options if the bank wont oblige .

[Nitaa]

How many NZO shareholders hold PRC??
Could PRC price be affected short-term by this cashing up to fund the NZOOD conversion??no question. ppp nzo prc and other stocks will be affrected to some degree. significant falls or volatilties almost a certainty.

I will also believe for the next 3 to 4 weeks thats falls will outstrip rises 2 - 1. However this does not necesesarily mean that the price wont be higher come end of June that what it is today. Keep in mind, I strongly suspect big players are waiting to mop up on any vunerability. Keep it simple. If you (meaning investors) can afford to convert and dont need to sell in the next 6 months then you will do very well.

[digger]

Fish ,you asked some pages back about approaching NZO about a special dividend to indirectly help finance the option conversion. I have infact had a conversation with DS about a month ago about this very idea.It turns out that under the NZX rules the company have to be very careful about not being see to take any sides in the heads verus the options.Also did not want to give another dividend so close to the last one. Perhaps we would all become dividend junkies and forever want just one more.My guess and it is just a guess is the next dividend is announced at the next AGM,otherwise these agm's would get a bit stale,and such a thought would keep the place alive.
God alone knows what the hugh sums of money are to be spend on.This does worry me as it can be like a lotto winner and get all stupid just because you suddenly have money. The only people and companies that know how to handle a surplus are those that are use to money,and NZO in the past 10 years has been the out of pocket begger,so the chances of going to there head is real.
Rather that seeing NZO about a special dividend i would rather we form a group to have a special AGM to discuss the spend up before it gets squandered.We need to have some ideas about these acquistions before it is a fait of complee.

[fish]

Fish ,you asked some pages back about approaching NZO about a special dividend to indirectly help finance the option conversion. Rather that seeing NZO about a special dividend i would rather we form a group to have a special AGM to discuss the spend up before it gets squandered.We need to have some ideas about these acquistions before it is a fait of complee..

Forming a group to keep some kind of oversight on nzo seems to me to be a very good idea .
Individual shareholders tend to be powerless but when a group forms you can make a big difference . An example of this was with TTP-through sharetrader contacts a small group of shareholders used minority buy-out rights to successfully win a fair award and costs against TTP . TTP appealed and we again won with costs .

Anyway off fishing today and tomorrow -i have gone soft (totally addicted to soft-baiting ).
Hope everyone has a good long week-end .
Tapis is still around $170 nz and Tui is producing many times expectations .
The quarterly report in july is likely to send the sp sky-rocketing---if it hasnt done it before .

[Oiler]

any news on the rig shifting to momoho?

M

Machine

I would expect to see it over Momoho by this Tuesday :D The flaring and well clean up was all completed mid week, so it should be just "wash up clean up" and go.

There wont be any news from the Momoho drill that could buck the NZO price by the end of the month. This is an exploration well so will be slower drilling (into the unknown) as compared to a production well where the geology is known.

Momoho has to be a winner........... as everyone seems to have HIGH expectations for this exploration drill. ;)

Oiler

[the machine]

Machine

I would expect to see it over Momoho by this Tuesday :D The flaring and well clean up was all completed mid week, so it should be just "wash up clean up" and go.

There wont be any news from the Momoho drill that could buck the NZO price by the end of the month. This is an exploration well so will be slower drilling (into the unknown) as compared to a production well where the geology is known.

Momoho has to be a winner........... as everyone seems to have HIGH expectations for this exploration drill. ;)

Oiler


thanks oiler

upon spudding there normally is a bit of coverage.

as regards geology - there is ks4 and ks5 north and south of so that should give a pretty good idea of same.

first things first, it has to have the weather window to relocate.

am hoping nzo can deliver some positive news in next few weeks that that the tui upgrade is out before options cease trading on the asx.

M

[airedale]

Are there any arrangements to underwrite the options which are not taken up?

[shasta]

Machine

I would expect to see it over Momoho by this Tuesday :D The flaring and well clean up was all completed mid week, so it should be just "wash up clean up" and go.

There wont be any news from the Momoho drill that could buck the NZO price by the end of the month. This is an exploration well so will be slower drilling (into the unknown) as compared to a production well where the geology is known.

Momoho has to be a winner........... as everyone seems to have HIGH expectations for this exploration drill. ;)

Oiler

Oiler

Hate to rain on the parade but NZO & JV partners had high hopes for HECTOR as well... :(

Airedale - Wonder if NZO themselves would underwrite up to 5% of the fully dilluted capital & retain them as treasury stock, either for issue in future DRP's or to further protect NZO from a takeover?

[bermuda]

Oiler

Hate to rain on the parade but NZO & JV partners had high hopes for HECTOR as well... :(

Airedale - Wonder if NZO themselves would underwrite up to 5% of the fully dilluted capital & retain them as treasury stock, either for issue in future DRP's or to further protect NZO from a takeover?

Shasta,
My thoughts are that this one is very near a certainty but yes I did have my hopes up for Tieke, Hector and Taranui.

That's the thrill of the drill.

[777]

Rights issues are often under written but I am not sure about options. As an under writer you would have to come up with $1.50 for the number under written whether they were in the money or not. Should the shares be well south of $1.50 then they would have committed themselves to a big loss. Can't imagine anyone doing it unless you could do it at the last minute and are reasonably sure they are in the money.

[digger]

Rights issues are often under written but I am not sure about options. As an under writer you would have to come up with $1.50 for the number under written whether they were in the money or not. Should the shares be well south of $1.50 then they would have committed themselves to a big loss. Can't imagine anyone doing it unless you could do it at the last minute and are reasonably sure they are in the money.

Actuall i have been in favor of NZO buying options and exercising them to add to treasury stock.It would just be a shifting around of money which in the end would give the company more of itself and a little less cash.Sometrime in the future the company could sell them or cancel.It leaves future alternatives. To my thinking that would be far better than letting them go to some inst.The inst can buy on the open market

[Nitaa]

Oiler

Hate to rain on the parade but NZO & JV partners had high hopes for HECTOR as well... :(

Airedale - Wonder if NZO themselves would underwrite up to 5% of the fully dilluted capital & retain them as treasury stock, either for issue in future DRP's or to further protect NZO from a takeover?
Im not so sure. Hector is a wild cat exploration which differs from Kupe. The potential reward was high but so was the risk. Most were picking about a 10 to 30% chance of a successful discovery. Perhaps they learnt quite a bit and will help sove the jugsaw that little bit more.

Kupe has imo about a 90% chance. It is a complx structure and aprt from that they will strike oil and gas. With prices as high as it is oil extracted will be a very good bonus at todays prices. The gas prices have already been confirmed with Genesis so NZO will have a very good passive income plus some good bonueses along the way. There is plenty of gas for at least another 25 years. Perhaps at least 25mbo from kupe as well.

Bring it on

[Oiler]

Machine


Momoho has to be a winner........... as everyone seems to have HIGH expectations for this exploration drill. ;)

Oiler

Shasta I agree with you...... I was trying to be cynical :eek:

As Nita has said "it is a complex structure" so there is certainly risk. I give it a 70/30 sucess. I hope I am wrong as I am a holder. :D

Oiler

[Steve]

Rights issues are often under written but I am not sure about options. As an under writer you would have to come up with $1.50 for the number under written whether they were in the money or not. Should the shares be well south of $1.50 then they would have committed themselves to a big loss. Can't imagine anyone doing it unless you could do it at the last minute and are reasonably sure they are in the money.

Rights Issues & SPP's are generally, but not always, underwritten (for a fee) as there is usually certainty that the issue price will be lower that the market price.

With options & warrants, they are not underwritten, in part because there is no certainty what the shareprice will be in the future.

Another way of looking at it, is to consider that with rights & SPP's the issuer often requires a certain sum of money to be raised and with options & warrants the issuer would be happy if any were exercised but it is not essential that they are.

A classic example of getting this wrong would be BIO, who had warrants which were not exercised even though the company required the money. Somewhere before it all hit the fan, they should have had a rights or SPP issue to fill the kitty. You would have thought that any Investment Bankers on the board would have been more aware of that!

[Bixbite]

It’s a matter of principle.

Is the company currently experiencing a bad situation? Is the company desperate for money?

Could I say “I’m desperate for money because I wish to buy a diamond which is 200 carat, nice colour, nice cut, very rare”? “If I didn’t buy it, I couldn’t eat well, I couldn’t sleep well, it would be a bad situation for me.”?

Cheer

[777]

NZO steady in Australia today.

[bermuda]

NZO steady in Australia today.

Thanks 777.

But had to reply

Coal Seam Gas wasnt!
lol

[temptation]

Zero options traded in Ozzie today. Big spread between sellers and very few buyers.

[bk]

woow, I did not expect it to happen this soon, down to 6.5 now.

unfortunately it now looks like Tui rerating, Kupe production flows, Momoho surprise and Pike first coal all arrive too late to rescue the options. So, what to do - join the dumping queue, or sell other shares and pick up some cheap NZO's via options? Mmm, difficult choice

[neopole]

option dumping is only part of a plan by a big fish to get a large stake in NZO.
i have never seen a sp held or dragged back as hard as this one before.
some one has very deep pockets to repres the sp of NZO now that it earns almost a mill a day.
IMHO i see all the options converted and a new player sitting at the boardroom table come july.

[Billy Boy]

IMHO i see all the options converted and a new player sitting at the boardroom table come july.
.
with a funny accent :(

[temptation]

I don't understand how a a big fish dumping options is going to get a big steak?
The fact is that there aren't many buyers out there. Volumes on the head share are low, and there are lots of people selling options that they can't or don't want to convert.

[COLIN]

[QUOTE=temptation;204064]I don't understand how a a big fish dumping options is going to get a big steak?
QUOTE]
Fish steaks?!
More like whitebait fritters tonight, it seems.
Some great buying opportunities as conversion time approaches and there is a mad scramble to find cash that just isn't there.
And a notable "disconnect" (to use some horrible present-day jargon) between the positive reaction to today's PRC announcement and the NZO prices. People just don't seem to be making the connection. The market really does throw up arbitrage-type opportunities.

[tim23]

Temptation there are buyers out there! How do you explain 2.7 million plus through today, the stake building theory has a bit of merit in my opinion.

[Awamoa]

Anyone wanting to get into this stock now should do so by purchasing the options.
.052 cents versus $1.57.
Has the selling frenzy of options been created through every holder getting their letter today?
I suspect there may be some money made on options in the next week or two.

[Nitaa]

This is fun to watch unless you are a trader or you cannot afford to convert your shares.

Looking at some of the parcels going through, clearly traders are getting confused and other investors and/or traders are having some fun. I expect at an average of around 4m to 5m options being traded daily from now on over the next 2 or 3 weeks. Or around 60m to 80m options traded by 23rd June.

discl. Money ready to convert if need be

[fish]

Anyone wanting to get into this stock now should do so by purchasing the options.
.052 cents versus $1.57.
Has the selling frenzy of options been created through every holder getting their letter today?
I suspect there may be some money made on options in the next week or two.

Shouldnt be any difficulty getting into nzo through the options at a good price tomorrow-at close trade buyers only after 619,000 shares and 6,845,411 for sale .

At this price would pay to get in quickly-look what happened to PRC today- jumped nearly 20cents in last hour trading after the $300 /ton announcement-which we all have known would be the minimum price .Price of Tapis is still over $170 nz but appears to make no difference to nzo sp

In my opinion the next quarterly annoucement in july is likely to give nzo a much greater kick . In the meantime the nzo price will be kept down by the option selling until the reserve upgrade -which may not be announced before the options cease trading .

[Bilo]

Five measly cents for options! To holders with heads this begs the question whether it would be better to not pay $1.50 and relinquish the options, rather than dilute their head shares. With the chance still of the world crashing into depression (as economies fight the continuing cash crisis and inflation) before June 30 if not soon afterwards my five cents may well stay in my pocket.

NZO don't need the option money and appear not to want to do anything to get the money. Did I hear correctly that the company did not want to appear to favour either the head or option holders? Too PC for belief!

The company stated at the AGM and in the Annual Report that their objective was to convert the options to support their growth strategy!

Show us the value DS!

[airedale]

Yes, Bilo, the company said at the AGM that they were working towards making sure that the options were converted.

[temptation]

Tim23,
I don't understand why a "big fish" would be dumping options if he wanted to acquire a big stake?. The big fish might be lurking at the bottom gobbling up the options. I got a trawler load myself today at au.04c, but I aint no big fish.

Certainly there is volume in the options, and this is undermining demand for the head share (McDunc predicted this months ago).
This is a great opportunity. I guess that everyone reading this thread knows that the planets are all coming into alignment for NZO.

[COLIN]

Five measly cents for options! To holders with heads this begs the question whether it would be better to not pay $1.50 and relinquish the options, rather than dilute their head shares. With the chance still of the world crashing into depression (as economies fight the continuing cash crisis and inflation) before June 30 if not soon afterwards my five cents may well stay in my pocket.

NZO don't need the option money and appear not to want to do anything to get the money. Did I hear correctly that the company did not want to appear to favour either the head or option holders? Too PC for belief!

The company stated at the AGM and in the Annual Report that their objective was to convert the options to support their growth strategy!

Show us the value DS!

I agree with your reasoning, Bilo. Lets hope the option price slips to near zero so that the maximum number of holders just throw them in the bin.

[Sehnsucht888]

Shouldnt be any difficulty getting into nzo through the options at a good price tomorrow-at close trade buyers only after 619,000 shares and 6,845,411 for sale .

At this price would pay to get in quickly-look what happened to PRC today- jumped nearly 20cents in last hour trading after the $300 /ton announcement-which we all have known would be the minimum price .Price of Tapis is still over $170 nz but appears to make no difference to nzo sp

In my opinion the next quarterly annoucement in july is likely to give nzo a much greater kick . In the meantime the nzo price will be kept down by the option selling until the reserve upgrade -which may not be announced before the options cease trading .

Hey Fish - are you an economist? They are the ones that pull figures out of the air aren't they?
NZX - PRC low: 1.67 High: 1.76
ASX - PRC low: 1.375 high: 1.45

where did you get 20c from? Last hour on both markets was about 5c from what I can see..

You should go for a job with labour! They need more gains pulled out of nothing too ;-)
...

[Dr_Who]

The lower the option price goes the more the holders will panic.

[tim23]

Bilo - the company did state that in the annual report but no mention made at AGM I was there and am adamant it wasn;t mentioned. Gee at the time of the AGM the options were way off the money, they are still in the money so don't be too hearsh!

[tim23]

Sorry - meant harsh!

[fish]

Hey Fish - are you an economist? They are the ones that pull figures out of the air aren't they?
NZX - PRC low: 1.67 High: 1.76
ASX - PRC low: 1.375 high: 1.45

where did you get 20c from? Last hour on both markets was about 5c from what I can see..

You should go for a job with labour! They need more gains pulled out of nothing too ;-)
...

Tx for that correction .l looked at the sp around 1540 hrs and Suspect I read the 6 as a 5-might have to buy reading glasses soon !
SP not as volatile as i thought-but still a 5% jump in a short space of time
http://www.moneyonline.co.nz/nzx/share1.aspx

[Sehnsucht888]

It was a good increase today.. PRC raising well over NZO's price. Only a few weeks ago there was discussion on which was going to be ahead at the end of that week (I think). PRC is well ahead know, and raging on.. I wonder how many did move from NZO to PRC....

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Hi Temptation et al:

To buy NZOOD on ASX and pay 4 cents in $AUD

What is the code for NZOOD on ASX?

[Mingeathinaikos]

NZOO

Why is there a 10 letter limit on messages?

[Nitaa]

Five measly cents for options! To holders with heads this begs the question whether it would be better to not pay $1.50 and relinquish the options, rather than dilute their head shares. With the chance still of the world crashing into depression (as economies fight the continuing cash crisis and inflation) before June 30 if not soon afterwards my five cents may well stay in my pocket.

NZO don't need the option money and appear not to want to do anything to get the money. Did I hear correctly that the company did not want to appear to favour either the head or option holders? Too PC for belief!

The company stated at the AGM and in the Annual Report that their objective was to convert the options to support their growth strategy!

Show us the value DS!I can vaguely rember the comment. With options, there is a sensitive window period that nzo cannot attempt to suade investors either way. I beleive we are in that period now. This is not in conflict with their last years comments at the agm or whatever that their objective was to have the options conbverted. Therefore nothing has changed imo.

At present nzo can only disclouse facts and cannot make comments such as nzo is way undervauled etc.

I may be wrong, but if you hung onto the options thinking you can make a killing by simply trading then during the volatile period then its simple risk versus reward. If you intend to convert then let time be on your side. The ones that panic now are simply the ones who thought they can make an easy buck. sometimes you may be lucky and sometimes not. (Not trying to be sarcastic in anyway but it was a strong likely hood). Conversley, an uprade or positive news them there could possible be a 10 bagger with a month. Not out of the realms of possibility at current prices.

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Hi
Thanks Mingeathinaikos.
Searched a few times for it.
My $AUD account is in funds...

[temptation]

Toulouse,
I think you'll be able to do better than au04c. There's really no need to rush as long as you've got the cash to convert.
Of course there is a chance that the head share will dip below $1.50 immediately after exercise date, but it isn't worth holding out just on the off chance. We're all heading north soon!

[the machine]

Machine

I would expect to see it over Momoho by this Tuesday :D The flaring and well clean up was all completed mid week, so it should be just "wash up clean up" and go.

There wont be any news from the Momoho drill that could buck the NZO price by the end of the month. This is an exploration well so will be slower drilling (into the unknown) as compared to a production well where the geology is known.

Momoho has to be a winner........... as everyone seems to have HIGH expectations for this exploration drill. ;)

Oiler

oiler, any update on the rig shift?

regards

M

[fish]

May 2008 Macquarie Capital Securities:
Macquarie initiated coverage of NZOG in April 2008. In May 2008 they issued an updated Research Report which values NZOG at NZ$1.89. The latest valuation assumes a Tapis oil price of US$97.80 in FY08
All valuations of nzo seem very conservative-has anyone got the figures used in this valuation .
Good to see Tapis still over us $ 134
Good to see sunrise -tv3 this morning mention the US$300 PRC has achieved plus the prediction of 1 million metric tons a year .
Looking forward to official kupe upgrade -as well as tui
Pity no one has put it all together -like waihoek used to do -to give us a current up to date valuation based on current prices .

[Dr_Who]

Oil dropped another $3.56 over night to $124.20! Oil has dropped $11 in the last few days.

Watch the options holders panic.

[digger]

here's my guess on the option movement till expirey. Will go down to about 3 cents and hold.Then hugh numbers will trade.Back up in last week starting 16th. Options always trade the lowest the immediate week after holders get the bill to convert. This OD conversion is the last great opportunity for an inst to grab a hugh junk.
Lets remember the recent PRC cash issue.It also look sad at about this stage of the play and look what happened there. I see the same sort of play happening here but the big players first need the fear of the smaller holders to complete the cycle.This is the last opportunity for a big buildup, the future does not hold any more cash issues or options or placements so it is now or never.

[bermuda]

[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;203386][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;202999]

Getting a bit nearer my number ( 149 ) despite all the good news. lol

If ever there was a killer for a sp it is option conversion. Seen it happen so many times.

Even affecting PPP and PRC.

It is a lot of money. But hey despite the option dilution ( they will be exercised ) this share goes north of $2.00 real quick. ( after June 30th that is )

Yep, even PRC has been affected. Otherwise the NZO-PRC difference would be 30 cents.

PRC and NZO. Two brilliant stocks.

I agree someone could pick up a big parcel of options and get into NZO at a fantastic price.

[Hoop]

A question.....How much of this $130+/barrel is due to the Peak Oil factor and how much of it is due to speculative trading.......

I'll attempt to answer my own question. (post #3896)
An article from Marketwatch (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?column=Futures+Movers) today mentions a shift by Commodity spectulators away from crude oil to Natural gas.
Quote Neal Ryan, a manager at Ryan Oil & Gas Partnershave ..."is that the $10-$15 speculative trade in the oil price will flip into the other energy trades like gasoline and natural gas......."

Note: $125 and $120 are interesting figures as they are key support levels.

[LIO]

Hi fish,
Re your post #4118 yesterday. You mentioned approx. 600k buyers for NZOOD, as against over 6 million sellers ! The depth on Direct Broking stops at 15 lines, which showed "only" about 1.6m sellers at close of trading. There must have been many more hidden from view.
Were you looking at another site which gives a complete list ? I'd be grateful if you - or anyone for that matter - could direct me to a site where I could find comprehensive lists of ALL bids and asks.
Thanks, Lio.

[Dr_Who]

How many NZOOD's on issue?

[digger]

How many NZOOD's on issue?

138 million approx

[Nitaa]

nzo will go north after conversion. big players will convert nzo even if the sp is a tad under $1.50 by the end of the month contary to what md thinks (bless his little cotton socks).

A gigantic opportunity is available, right here right now for the big daddies to take advantage of mum and dad and the greedy traders.

Depending on how one sees there investment. the best way imo with regards to the options is...if heads are trading at $1.55 and then jump to $1.60 is not to assume that you may have approx doubled your value in options but simply made a gain of 5 cps.

EG. i hold 50k options. Price retracts from 10 cents to 4 cents in the last week. Since i am prepared to convert then the same equation (for simplistic terms) means i have only lost $3,000 not 60% of my investment because i am thinking medium to longer term.

If you are trading then yes you have lost 60% on paper and still $3,000.

Lesson.. never invest what you cannot afford to lose.

[fish]

Hi fish,
Re your post #4118 yesterday. You mentioned approx. 600k buyers for NZOOD, as against over 6 million sellers ! The depth on Direct Broking stops at 15 lines, which showed "only" about 1.6m sellers at close of trading. There must have been many more hidden from view.
Were you looking at another site which gives a complete list ? I'd be grateful if you - or anyone for that matter - could direct me to a site where I could find comprehensive lists of ALL bids and asks.
Thanks, Lio.
hi lio
I use asb securities and am really impressed with the speed of trading and the info I can get -as well as phone back up if I have problems .
As for volumes of buyers and sellers it looks as if low tide happened this morning and a flood of buyers has arrived-currently 4109344 buys and 6538142 sells

[fish]

Problem of financing converting options can easily be solved by setting up a margin lending account .
Have just been speaking to steve at asb securities margin lending who tells me they will lend up. to 50% of value of each nzo share to convert the options -and if you have telecom they will lend 70% of the current vaue that share -so a percentage of your total portfolio can be lent to convert the options

interest rate= 10.59-varies according to the reserve bank rate-
service fee $125 every 6 months
certainly solves my problems and I no longer have to sell my portfolio to get conversion nzood .
So bought a few more options today at 5.2 cents which i will be converting !

[Rabbi]

The options are having the effect of a cash issue at a discount, but the result is even worse, because at least with a cash issue, you don't have to participate. If you hold the options it's sink or swim time, or sell or convert in this case.

[Steve]

The options are having the effect of a cash issue at a discount, but the result is even worse, because at least with a cash issue, you don't have to participate. If you hold the options it's sink or swim time, or sell or convert in this case.

There will always be those few who do nothing and let them lapse...

[friedegg]

Problem of financing converting options can easily be solved by setting up a margin lending account .
Have just been speaking to steve at asb securities margin lending who tells me they will lend up. to 50% of value of each nzo share to convert the options -and if you have telecom they will lend 70% of the current vaue that share -so a percentage of your total portfolio can be lent to convert the options

interest rate= 10.59-varies according to the reserve bank rate-
service fee $125 every 6 months
certainly solves my problems and I no longer have to sell my portfolio to get conversion nzood .
So bought a few more options today at 5.2 cents which i will be converting !

hey fish is that interest rate really only 10.59 im getting ripped at mcquarie then,but back when i got mine to do the last option conversion i think mcquarie were the only game ones to margin lend on nzo,best advice i can give is put in a bit more than the 50% equity because even with a 5% buffer on margin calls,they can come quick and the phone call ****s your pants

[LIO]

Hi, thanks fish, will have a look at ASB.

[Sideshow Bob]

PRC up 18c over the last two days - to my equation that's about 5.8c per NZO share, or 3.9cps if each option was exercise.

Go figure!!

[bermuda]

SP NEEDED TO BE $1.75 TO $1.95 up wards did,nt quite make it ---- work it out P R C - no money--no production, no coal seam, no revenue.. NZOG $100 million plus in bank--huge revenue, huge reserves,increasing production--sp going down--:rolleyes::rolleyes:

HI Malclom
;
That post caught my eye. The NZ Doubters Association eh.

As you know both these are simply OUTSTANDING.

I really hope all you posters are listening.

Sell all your Telecoms, Fletcher Buildings,Dorchester Pacific's. (what a mug's game )

Get into NZO and PRC NOW with every dollar you can possibly raise. I aint telling you this for financial gain on my part. It is for you fellow posters, without which I would know nothing.

Thanks

[Oiler]

oiler, any update on the rig shift?

regards

M

Machine

Rig is still sitting out there.........southerly blowing for the last 2 days so I guess they wont be going anywhere till the weather improves.

Oiler

[the machine]

Machine

Rig is still sitting out there.........southerly blowing for the last 2 days so I guess they wont be going anywhere till the weather improves.

Oiler

thanks oiler.

yes can be a frustrating time waiting for the weather window before delicate moves to raise and lower the legs - not to mentionthe tow - only 5km in this instance is nothing.

recall many years ago a jackup was lost just north of perth when the tow snapped in a storm

M

[the machine]

waiting on the news [in simpler terms] re outcome of the kupe flow tests.

surely this would help push the sp up.

did not the flow test indicate fluids are 2.5 times more than estimated?

we know nzo are restricted in what they can say leading up to the options.

am expecting the options have bottomed out, so starting next monday 9th, there are 11 trading days left for the options to be in the money before they stop trading.

will be selling quite a lot of mine - probably by friday 20th.

M

[Corporate]

HI Malclom
;
That post caught my eye. The NZ Doubters Association eh.

As you know both these are simply OUTSTANDING.

I really hope all you posters are listening.

Sell all your Telecoms, Fletcher Buildings,Dorchester Pacific's. (what a mug's game )

Get into NZO and PRC NOW with every dollar you can possibly raise. I aint telling you this for financial gain on my part. It is for you fellow posters, without which I would know nothing.

Thanks

I think you're right. I plan to get in boots and all (good old student loan) once these options are out of the way. I just don't really have enough experience/knowledge to buy in before hand as it seems to me that the price may continue to drop up until 30 June.

[the machine]

hows this for a theory which hopefully is incorrect.

awe have planned date to reach a conclusion on the tui upgrade - say june 25 - 2 days after nzo options can no longer be traded.

meanwhile awe are aquiring options and come july have a 15% share of nzo, inturn enjoy the sp upside after tui upgrade.

nothing improper with this as the planned date to reach the conclusion re tui upgrade just happens to be after nzo options cease trading.

M

[Nitaa]

hows this for a theory which hopefully is incorrect.

awe have planned date to reach a conclusion on the tui upgrade - say june 25 - 2 days after nzo options can no longer be traded.

meanwhile awe are aquiring options and come july have a 15% share of nzo, inturn enjoy the sp upside after tui upgrade.

nothing improper with this as the planned date to reach the conclusion re tui upgrade just happens to be after nzo options cease trading.

MI have thought all along that awe could be aquiring nzo options. if they beleive in tui and can to some extent value prc and kupe then its a good business decision. I am not sure about the conflict of interest in squiring options or shares when they have an inside running to knowledge and future earnerings well b4 the average investor.

I also thought the same thing about Origin

[digger]

hows this for a theory which hopefully is incorrect.

awe have planned date to reach a conclusion on the tui upgrade - say june 25 - 2 days after nzo options can no longer be traded.

meanwhile awe are aquiring options and come july have a 15% share of nzo, inturn enjoy the sp upside after tui upgrade.

nothing improper with this as the planned date to reach the conclusion re tui upgrade just happens to be after nzo options cease trading.

M

That would be an example of exterme inside trading and i doubt AWE would be so stupid.If AWE wanted to to accumulate NZO it would be safer for them to announce the upgrade a week before the close of option trading ,thereby still getting a fair hunk of options and having their butt covered.