NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[boysy]

what about PPP i mean if you are talking about revenue in relation to market cap u cant look past ppp even if maitland is still a bit iffy

[fish]

Foodee is referring to the sp-a 5cent dividend would be very positive for the share price and would hardly dent the $300million war chest

[Nitaa]

Paying a dividend after raising funds, at a discount, is not a negative? Paying out money before the ongoing capital requirements have been determined is not a negative?

NZO has nearly $300M in the bank at a time when the world economy is very volatile. There will be opportunities to use that cash to advantage, but there is also significant opportunity for losses through ill-considered or ill-timed ventures.

It is time to relax and let the enormous Tui profits continue to accumulate, while the Kupe and Pike projects get ever closer to completion. Shareholder value is increasing at a great rate, as it has been for the last year or more.

Flooding the market with NZO shares has been very costly thus far for NZO shareholders. It will take time to recover, but eventually the market will see that assigning nil value to Kupe, and pricing Tui oil at $30 a barrel is not warranted.Well said.

Biggest risk at present is commodity prices. Having said that, nzo i trading at a sigificant discount with nzo and its shareholders are well positioned right now.

[foodee]

Unicorn
Whenever possible I always read your comments as I
appreciate your thoughts and knowledge.
I certainly think any cos paying a div out of profits
is not a negative.
I am aware that NZO value is increasing, but is yet to be reflected
in the two entities div and sp, shareholders identify with.
In fact I have never sold any NZOG shares and I have
held longer than I care to think.

Cheers

[Nitaa]

Unicorn
Whenever possible I always read your comments as I
appreciate your thoughts and knowledge.
I certainly think any cos paying a div out of profits
is not a negative.
I am aware that NZO value is increasing, but is yet to be reflected
in the two entities div and sp, shareholders identify with.
In fact I have never sold any NZOG shares and I have
held longer than I care to think.

Cheersfoodee.

I have never been a dividend freak as i like to concentrate on co's with good growth prospects as well of course being able to fund the growth. nzo is an exception and beleive that divvies are going to be an annual event from now on for 15 or so years. I am not sure when co's normally announce but i guess when the annual report comes out is when it will be announced subject to a possible special dividend.

IMO the ones who are woried about the current sp are the ones who are looking to make a quick buck. However most medium to long term investors are ultimately only worried about what the sell at. What happens in between is largely irrelevant.

Investors whether its sharemarket or property largely dont give a toot what the short term does because they know that time is on their side. If you are a longer term holder then keep your finger off the sell button (even if nzo drops to $1.20 or so) and remember why you bought into nzo in the first place.

Short term what is happening is oil prices have dropped from close to $150 to under $120 (20% drop) along with negative sentiments in the global markets. Of course short term this is impacting among many other contributing factors.

The very big investors will be waiting for the (as dm calls it) the road kill where they will mop up grossly undervalued companies. There is plenty of opportunities at present and in simple terms compnies tied up to tui represent unbeleivable value. PPP and AWE offer great buying opportunities even if oil drops to around $70. Remember what AT bought ppp for last year and what price oil was. Not a lot has changed accpet oil prices are a lot higher now and reserves have increased by nearly 100% and production is going far better than expected. I hope that puts things into perspective

I might be stating the obvious but that my opinion anyway.

[upside_umop]

Ok, say they payout a 5cent dividend. Around $20 million...easy you say?
Sure, but then there will be the expectation of another 5cent interim..another $20 million.

NZO looks to have made around $140 million? after tax this year..so not too much from there. Next year that could more likely be $60 million. Would NZO really want to payout 2/3 of their profit? Not imo as thats not a reasonable proportion of profits...its most of their profits!

Anyway, all this talk is so speculative..DS has stated there will be no final. Lets just leave it at that and get 'suprised' and get the told you so's if they do at the annual...

Maybe we should start a poll...share buyback at low levels vs a dividend...

[Nitaa]

heeeeezzzzz baaacccckkkk

zorba. i noticed your friend miner is back.. this will be fun but now with Pike having its own thread i am sure he will pop up there more than nzo

[fish]

Ok, say they payout a 5cent dividend. Around $20 million...easy you say?
Sure, but then there will be the expectation of another 5cent interim..another $20 million.

NZO looks to have made around $140 million? after tax this year..so not too much from there. Next year that could more likely be $60 million. Would NZO really want to payout 2/3 of their profit? Not imo as thats not a reasonable proportion of profits...its most of their profits!

Anyway, all this talk is so speculative..DS has stated there will be no final. Lets just leave it at that and get 'suprised' and get the told you so's if they do at the annual...

Maybe we should start a poll...share buyback at low levels vs a dividend...

$140 million after tax=40 cents approx a share-? not much from there
DS has also said they would in future pay a reasonable percentage of profits as dividends-I am sure most investors would think 25% or 10 cents a share would not be unreasonable .
With the falling dollar and Tui producing well this years profits might not be too bad -suspect it will be more like 100 million than 60-but whatever figure there will be enough profit to pay out a good dividend.
This share has an incredible p/e ratio but the value of this share in times such as these will not be recognised by the market until a cash return is seen .

[fish]

Maybe we should start a poll...share buyback at low levels vs a dividend...

A share buyback doesnt make sense-for lots reasons not least a dividend could take advantage of the tax credits .

[shasta]

A share buyback doesnt make sense-for lots reasons not least a dividend could take advantage of the tax credits .

Actually Fish, with the company tax rate now 30%, those on the 33% & 39% tax rate are at a disadvantage when receiving a dividend.

A share buyback delivers equal benefits to all shareholders...;)

It also doesn't affect the tax paid, which can always be attached to dividends at a later date, as imputation credits.

NZO already has a dividend policy, to pay out 50% of profits, but after capital commitments have been considered.

So i take that to mean, unless surplus cashflows are"earmarked" for capital committments, they will be paid out as dividends...

I don't believe NZO have changed there dividend policy, though i stand to be corrected!

[fish]

[QUOTE=shasta;217429]Actually Fish, with the company tax rate now 30%, those on the 33% & 39% tax rate are at a disadvantage when receiving a dividend.

Good point -but at least the imputation credits are paid out now rather than depreciating for sometime in the future
?Re 50% dividend policy-if that was true I would be very happy and the sp would be much higher
From the website-Q: Does New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd pay a dividend?
New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd paid a 5c per share dividend in April 2008.

The current dividend policy is that in future years, subject to the need to retain sufficient capital to meet investment requirements, a reasonable proportion of profit will be distributed by way of an annual dividend.

[bermuda]

Well said.

Biggest risk at present is commodity prices. Having said that, nzo i trading at a sigificant discount with nzo and its shareholders are well positioned right now.

Hi Nita,
We are not dealing with commodities.

Oil, a Precious Finite Resource

[Nitaa]

Bermuda.. whenever i write the word commodity i think of you Bermuda just like when i think of anything in the sexual nature i think of md. Yes you are right it is precious and what has taken zillion of years to make will largely be used in a matter of 3 centuries.

ps. hows the golf treating you? and guess what.. miner is back.....here we go again no doubt

[bermuda]

Bermuda.. whenever i write the word commodity i think of you Bermuda just like when i think of anything in the sexual nature i think of md. Yes you are right it is precious and what has taken zillion of years to make will largely be used in a matter of 3 centuries.

ps. hows the golf treating you? and guess what.. miner is back.....here we go again no doubt

Hi Nita,
I have never been so nervous about the stock market in my life. NZO and Pike will survive but it may knock my CSG's. Hopefully BG will save it. It will have it's day again.

As for the golf..hopeless....nearly broke my wrist falling down the stairs in my slippery slippers. Out to 85.

I think my wife saw your sexy pose and wondered if this was indeed an oil chat site.

[Crypto Crude]

bermuda-I have never been so nervous about the stock market in my life

Huuummmmm....
This is the most important line on the NZO thread for quite some time.....

fundamentals (and espeically delayed development projects) become less significant in the current market cycle...
there important ideas unfolding before us which are undelayed....
....
rising markets make me nervous.... if I saw north of 12K Dow, I will be prepared to jump from a race car at top speed....
....
...
.

for example,
Ive perhaps spotted the best Spec oiler ive ever seen which stacks up like no other, left right, center, top, bottom, inbetween, NW, NE, SW, SE...it should perform with DOW at 9k and barrels rolling out the door at $90 US... still I think that markets wont give a savaloy if this company is cashed up or not...
baggers to be made left right and center in the oil game...
but perhaps not....

Greed is what will bring us all down as we struggle to sell beautiful stocks...
If we chase (no brainer) fundamentals we will eventaully get caught out...

Im starting to wonder if value means anything...?
ive bounced on out before, ive seen what markets have done... im hoping for stable falls... If I see any sort of rally I will sell up and bouce on out.......
The biggest threat is markets rising...
not markets falling...


I personally think we have 2 months before us imortals must move out,......and 1 month before us illiqid immortals must start selling....
in a meltdown, options will become worthless...
Ive never experienced this sort of thing, but from what others have putforward- this topic should not be ignored...
:cool:
.^sc

[777]

And oil is down to $115.

[fish]

And oil is down to $115.
and us/nz is 70 cents
therefore if Tapis= 120 us =$170nz a barrel-much higher than the average for last year
1.125 million barrels predicted for 08/09 financial year=191 million gross income from tui -plus a bit from prc and kupe plus higher prices obtained last month and nzo should have gross revenues over $200 million
Nearly forgot-the interest compounding on $300 million in the bank-?around $25 million

I see GPG are accumulating a war chest and after the sale of tower could easily take nzo out.
Somehow I dont see the sp falling much farther .

[blockhead]

HUGE OIL AND GAS FIELD OFF COAST

A massive oil and gas field worth tens of billions of dollars may be sitting 65km of the coast from Dunedin.

Australian Company Origin Energy has announced plans to drill a US$50m exploration well within a year but is looking for partners to join what it says is a "high risk" and expensive project.

The above is part of an article in todays Timaru Herald, if you were Origin and looking for a partner, where would you go knocking first ???

Now lets see, who has a whole lot of cash looking for a home ????

[blockhead]

The full tale

http://www.originenergy.com.au/news/news_detail.php?pageid=82&newsid=947

[foodee]

foodee.

I have never been a dividend freak as i like to concentrate on co's with good growth prospects as well of course being able to fund the growth. nzo is an exception and beleive that divvies are going to be an annual event from now on for 15 or so years. I am not sure when co's normally announce but i guess when the annual report comes out is when it will be announced subject to a possible special dividend.

IMO the ones who are woried about the current sp are the ones who are looking to make a quick buck. However most medium to long term investors are ultimately only worried about what the sell at. What happens in between is largely irrelevant.

Investors whether its sharemarket or property largely dont give a toot what the short term does because they know that time is on their side. If you are a longer term holder then keep your finger off the sell button (even if nzo drops to $1.20 or so) and remember why you bought into nzo in the first place.

Short term what is happening is oil prices have dropped from close to $150 to under $120 (20% drop) along with negative sentiments in the global markets. Of course short term this is impacting among many other contributing factors.

The very big investors will be waiting for the (as dm calls it) the road kill where they will mop up grossly undervalued companies. There is plenty of opportunities at present and in simple terms compnies tied up to tui represent unbeleivable value. PPP and AWE offer great buying opportunities even if oil drops to around $70. Remember what AT bought ppp for last year and what price oil was. Not a lot has changed accpet oil prices are a lot higher now and reserves have increased by nearly 100% and production is going far better than expected. I hope that puts things into perspective

I might be stating the obvious but that my opinion anyway.

Nita
See post #5983. I am greedy and is after both growth and 'some' div.

Growth is sine qua non with investment.

Div put food on the table.

cheers

[upside_umop]

$140 million after tax=40 cents approx a share-? not much from there
DS has also said they would in future pay a reasonable percentage of profits as dividends-I am sure most investors would think 25% or 10 cents a share would not be unreasonable .
With the falling dollar and Tui producing well this years profits might not be too bad -suspect it will be more like 100 million than 60-but whatever figure there will be enough profit to pay out a good dividend.
This share has an incredible p/e ratio but the value of this share in times such as these will not be recognised by the market until a cash return is seen .

What im saying is, dividends are sticky downwards. Companies dont like to reduce dividends...without a good reason. P/E doesnt mean anything..its the DCF.

Tui, bringing in now less than 700k per day..still amazing.

But FISH, DS said it was the final for the year in the interim. Profit may indeed be higher because of interest etc than 60..but from operating activities will be well down on this year unless NZO get quick smart about an acquistion.

-----
blocky, i saw that too. pretty interesting. dont know if nzo will commit that much risk?

[fish]

[QUOTE=upside_umop;217500]What im saying is, dividends are sticky downwards. Companies dont like to reduce dividends...without a good reason. P/E doesnt mean anything..its the DCF.

Tui, bringing in now less than 700k per day..still amazing.

But FISH, DS said it was the final for the year in the interim. Profit may indeed be higher because of interest etc than 60..but from operating activities will be well down on this year unless NZO get quick smart about an acquistion.

-----
I dont know how far ahead nzo has sold its oil nor the exact production rate but even if tui is down to 32000 barrels per day at the last trading price tapis-$124 at exchange rate 70cents= a little over $700k per day ie oil price and production is well beyond expectations when the dividend was announced in february .
Whatever DS said is simply what he said at the time -it is not an irrevocable law that cannot be altered to suit circumstances -the dividend was declared well before nzo entered its final quarter that earned an unexpected $80.9 million.
The best action in the interests of its shareholders is to pay out a special dividend-say 10cents or 20 million dollars -to recognise

1)-The windfall earnings of the final quarter
2)-the investors/shareholders for digging deep to make it a successful capital raising

[Bilo]

Hi Nita,
I have never been so nervous about the stock market in my life.

The incident that brought some of this home to me was the AWE share price performance. AWE had annual revenue equal to half its capitalisation, made AUD500M operating profit on AUD800M of revenue, increased reserves and the share price was dropped another 50cps. Fundamentals have been trashed as index players try to limit their losses (on the few basket cases) to the market average by trashing everything.

There are stupid dark forces at work (within dopey trading laws) that are extremely destructive. Unfortunately the actions and motives of many participants in the ASX and major world bourses are doubtful. Share prices can be moved significantly on very little volume and this has made it possible for the big index plays to force even the best of stocks to perform worse than the market average. The stupid thing is that an index will sell when company investors won't sell. Lets not let the NZX go down the same stupid track......shorting supports divestment not investment....

Some time the bigger players will start to buy up the better performing companies and the tide will turn - probably relatively quickly.

[upside_umop]

My bad fish, it is still well over 700 k, dont know what i was thinking. Should be still around $850 k...how much longer that will last is anyones guess.
But yes, a special dividend would be fine...and thats the only way they will pay it out imo - thik i've said this before...they would try not to send the signal of it being reoccuring unless they can do it.

[Sideshow Bob]

From Fish

The best action in the interests of its shareholders is to pay out a special dividend-say 10cents or 20 million dollars -to recognise

10c per share = approx $38.5 million.

I think should pay some sort of dividend - From end of June until end of August when the result comes out, and then by the time they pay any divvie, they will probably pull in 5-8 million in interest.

[Paddie]

Operators discuss new Maui-Tui pipeline

By ROB MAETZIG rob.maetzig@tnl.co.nz - Taranaki Daily News | Saturday, 09 August 2008

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The operators of offshore Taranaki energy fields, Tui and Maui, look set to sign a special deal to allow shared use of their production facilities.

If the deal goes ahead, it will be specially significant for one of the operating companies, which is under fire for flaring off millions of cubic feet of gas during its oil production operations.

For the other company, it will provide an opportunity to make money from a pocket of crude oil discovered during gas-drilling operations. The Maui gasfield is 35km off the Taranaki coast, with the Tui oilfield a further 15km away.

While Tui is proving a huge success, producing more than 40,000 barrels of crude oil a day, the operation is being slammed by environmentalists for flaring more than 17 million cubic feet of gas a day. This amount of gas would be enough to power Auckland, and should be either piped ashore or reinjected underground for future use, critics say.

But now the Tui owners are now moving to resolve the issue.

Shell Todd Oil Services, operator of the Maui field, confirmed preliminary talks had begun on the possibility of one Maui gas production platform receiving Tui gas.

These talks followed an approach by Tui field operator Australian Worldwide Exploration. AWE's New Zealand country manager Dennis Washer refused to comment, saying it was confidential matter.

But the Taranaki Daily News understands the talks involve the possible laying of a flexible pipeline on the sea floor for transfer of the gas from Tui to a Maui platform for processing before export ashore in the existing Maui gas line.

It is also understood the same line could be used to pipe crude oil from Maui to the Tui field for processing aboard the floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) facility there, before being exported with the Tui oil aboard tankers that regularly visit the site.

Rumours abound that this oil was discovered during the drilling of new gas prospects from the Maui A platform.

The Maui partners are currently unable to do anything with this oil, as the FPSO that spent several years at Maui during production from the Maui B oilfield is no longer on site.


An interesting post, not to sure what to read in to it.

Paddie

[fish]

Operators discuss new Maui-Tui pipeline


An interesting post, not to sure what to read in to it.

Paddie

tHX FOR THAT POST

That sounds a win-win which is good news-the flaring of Tui Gas has been bad news.

[boysy]

how much would the flaring gas net nzo a day ?

[Paddie]

tHX FOR THAT POST

That sounds a win-win which is good news-the flaring of Tui Gas has been bad news.

Hi Fish,

Flaring issues have been raised before, but I guess I am more interested in the credibilty of the rest of the story..

Paddie

[fish]

Hi Fish,

Flaring issues have been raised before, but I guess I am more interested in the credibilty of the rest of the story..

Paddie

Hi
I dont doubt the credibility-refusing to comment probably means they are negotiating costs and didnt want to announce it to the markets-I guess they will have to announce it now-
I found another reference to it on the hotcopper site-if its feasible why has it taken so long ?I guess the answer to that is that Tui is much bigger than expected and the gas was initially expected to decline quickly

[Mick100]

warning:
this interview is crap




2nd Hour Guest Experts


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Author, Twilight in the Desert
Today's topic
Energy: It's Still Cheap
http://www.financialsense.com/images/Experts/2008/simmons.jpg

[fish]

[QUOTE=Paddie;217579]Hi Fish,

Flaring issues have been raised before, but I guess I am more interested in the credibilty of the rest of the story..
Hi Paddie
Sounds as if there could be significant financial benefits as well as environmental .
Could be many more examples of Using existing infrastructure to pipe smaller pockets of gas/oil

While Tui is proving a huge success, producing more than 40,000 barrels of crude oil a day, the operation is being slammed by environmentalists for flaring more than 17 million cubic feet of gas a day. This amount of gas would be enough to power Auckland, and should be either piped ashore or reinjected underground for future use, critics say.

But now the Tui owners are now moving to resolve the issue.

Shell Todd Oil Services, operator of the Maui field, confirmed preliminary talks had begun on the possibility of one Maui gas production platform receiving Tui gas.

[srowe]

Id be very interested to hear your valued opinions on your outlook for nzo given the drop in oil price. I know its a loaded question but..

[fish]

Id be very interested to hear your valued opinions on your outlook for nzo given the drop in oil price. I know its a loaded question but..

Oil price volatility puts a short-term damper on the value the market perceives .
Long -term this volatility reduces investment in new and expensive exploration and development .
Also reduces's value of assets . Could in hindsight-say in 3 years time been seen to have been a big plus enabling nzo to buy assets at knocked down prices .

Tui oil is cheap to extract and fall in nz dollar plus upgrading reserves means nzo is still earning $800,000 a day-much more than expected .

Expect sp to trade in current range $1.50 to $1.70 until after olympics and then up .
Unless major geo-political events
A dividend declared would be a big plus however .

So little downside and lots upside

[blockhead]

The idea of the presently flared gas being piped and sold is "significant" in my mind, NOG will be required to make comment tomorrow I feel.

I haven't calculated the value of the gas or the availability of a market for it but I am sure there are some here who will come up with a "back of the envelope" value fairly quickly.

Could easily add more than the value of a dividend to the sp in a relatively short time frame.

[Tok3n]

"17 million cubic feet of gas/day"

urm is that article for real?

coz thats a truck load of gas being wasted, talk about burning money.

Tok3n shakes at his high gas and power bill :(.

[Corporate]

I really like the idea of the Tui/Maui possibility. I read somewhere that there is reserves of 20Million barrels at Maui? . That would be a fair incentive to build pipe line and set up an agreement.

[sideline]

"17 million cubic feet of gas/day"

urm is that article for real?

coz thats a truck load of gas being wasted, talk about burning money.

Tok3n shakes at his high gas and power bill :(.

I suppose though that the volume of gas is declining and a bit is
used up on the Umuroa I think for running machinery there.

[Sehnsucht888]

Just how much oil does 2 million cars use? Thats what the paper said have been twaken oiff the roads in China.
The olympics will also be generating a lot of in home entertainment, (well, maybe), leeping others off the road.

Once the games are over, things could resume quite easily I;d have thought. They talk about such a large audience, and surely some of that audience is staying home, where preoviously they went out???

[Lion]

OK, if no-one else will give it a go, here's my figures for the value of the flared gas. . .

1000 cu ft is approx equivalent to a gigajoule of energy (depends on calorific value of the gas) which can be sold for around $7 (retails for $25, incidentally!)

So 17 million cu ft is 17,000 GJ or $120,000 a day.
NZO share $15,000 a day. [about 1.5 c per share per year]

This is a back of envelope calculation, figures may be out of date, there's expenses, royalties and tax, but it still seems a lot of "money to burn".

[peterfindlay]

Azerbaijan Halts oil exports from 2 Georgian Ports

http://www.cnbc.com/id/26112384

[duncan macgregor]

Who would have thought a whole day without a post on the NZO thread. Its funny how the rampers go silent as the share price drops. NITA WHERE ARE YOU?. Tell me about peak oil again i am starting to lose faith. Its all market sentiment nothing to do with how much money they are piling up in the bank. The price of oil will hit $200 a barrel next year which sounds a lot but maybe not with the American dollar crashing to much lower levels.
I cant see NZO reaching new heights, until the next round of exploration starts, where ever that might be. Big crash on the horizon will test the faith of the long term holders who must see the sp hit by market sentiment. Macdunk

[Chalice]

Who would have thought a whole day without a post on the NZO thread. Its funny how the rampers go silent as the share price drops. NITA WHERE ARE YOU?. Tell me about peak oil again i am starting to lose faith. Its all market sentiment nothing to do with how much money they are piling up in the bank. The price of oil will hit $200 a barrel next year which sounds a lot but maybe not with the American dollar crashing to much lower levels.
I cant see NZO reaching new heights, until the next round of exploration starts, where ever that might be. Big crash on the horizon will test the faith of the long term holders who must see the sp hit by market sentiment. Macdunk

Great to see the drop almost immediately after your post

[dsurf]

Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production enters terminal decline. The concept is based on the observed production rates of individual oil wells, and the combined production rate of a field of related oil wells. The aggregate production rate from an oil field over time appears to grow exponentially until the rate peaks and then declines, sometimes rapidly, until the field is depleted. It has been shown to be applicable to the sum of a nation’s domestic production rate, and is similarly applied to the global rate of petroleum production. It is important to note that peak oil is not about running out of oil, but the peaking and subsequent decline of the production rate of oil.

[dsurf]

Peak oil suggests that this years average price - lets say US$120 will be above last years - lets say $80, which will be above the year befores, lets say US$60 - and so on. I am not sure about peak steel or peak coal or peak NZ sourced gas, but maybe another poster can help.

[dsurf]

forgot to mention peak NZ$

[Mick100]

have we seen "peak macdunk"
his posting rate increased steadily and went into a blow-off top while he ran his "guess the price comp"
His rate of posting has dropped steadily since the comp finished
Should we be concerned.

[duncan macgregor]

have we seen "peak macdunk"
his posting rate increased steadily and went into a blow-off top while he ran his "guess the price comp"
His rate of posting has dropped steadily since the comp finished
Should we be concerned. I have been told that when you get to my age you are not only lucky but you have passed your peak. It will be interesting to see how a company with so much revenue pouring in performs in the crash coming up. Will all ships fall in the tide as i predict or shall we have exceptions?. Macdunk

[gazprom1]

Macdunk,

Are you predicting that the US dollar will crash next year? We have seen a 10% drop in the value of the kiwi vs the US dollar in the past 3 weeks. Factor that into the price of West Texas at $114 and we are still at a theoretical $125. As you have said before, cash is king and NOG has loads of it. Lets hope they use it wisely.

[dsurf]

how about another competion to relieve the boredom until either: oil tests $100 & rebounds or the 150m npat is released & discounted by analysts as "historic" earnings.

How bout guess Macd's age & how far past his peak he is. Nita can't enter.

[Dr_Who]

I am getting ready to pick up some cheap NZO in the next few months or so once it bottoms.

CASH COW.. MOooooooO!

[upside_umop]

Competitions were fun...

What about a NPAT figure?

Shouldnt be too hard...and would sort out a few realisations i would think.

Dsurf, the earnings will be discounted as previous/historical facts. Its whats ahead that matters...

[AMR]

Sold my NZO today, seems to be making a H&S top by the look of things.

Nothing wrong with selling now and buying back later.

(Waiting for the shouts of abuse from the Noggers)

[upside_umop]

Nothing wrong with that AMR.
Now we're starting to see some anti-dilution courtesy of the options.
Share buyback should be in order if it starts getting dumped...some margin calls will be pretty thin.

[Anubis]

Sold my NZO today, seems to be making a H&S top by the look of things.

Nothing wrong with selling now and buying back later.

(Waiting for the shouts of abuse from the Noggers)


TECHNICALLY speaking you are correct and I should have done the same, but the voices in my head keep telling me not to... not just yet....

[fish]

Sold my NZO today, seems to be making a H&S top by the look of things.

Nothing wrong with selling now and buying back later.

(Waiting for the shouts of abuse from the Noggers)

Too clever for me-I dont sell out on undervalued shares .
Everyone has an opinion and only time will tell who is right.
Sentiment is definately against the oilers .
Meanwhile nzo is still quietly earning nz $173 a barrel-well over $750,000 a day.
$300 million in the bank
Annual report due out soon
1st quarter result this year should be superb
Possibility of takeover at these low prices-sp heavily discounted
prc about to hit coal.
This is a share I would hate to miss out on-1 good announcement-eg a special dividend and the sp could instantly jump 20 cents .

[croesus]

As I said on the 8th .. Bermuda... if the price drops to $1.50 ish... we could soon see $1.35...there are a lot of fools out there who took up their oppies with help from Mr Visa and Mrs Mastercard.... hopefully ( without being horrible) I am right as I would relish the opportunity to buy in the mid or low $1.30s....
Also waiting for Dodgy Kev to tip over so I can pick up some National Props at 40c.

cheers ... Croesus

[bermuda]

As I said on the 8th .. Bermuda... if the price drops to $1.50 ish... we could soon see $1.35...there are a lot of fools out there who took up their oppies with help from Mr Visa and Mrs Mastercard.... hopefully ( without being horrible) I am right as I would relish the opportunity to buy in the mid or low $1.30s....
Also waiting for Dodgy Kev to tip over so I can pick up some National Props at 40c.

cheers ... Croesus

Well their revenue has now dropped to $750k per day. Huge eh?

As for $1.30 anything can happen in a market where there are very few buyers. At least NZO wont go down the vortex . Thank goodness I dont margin trade. It is bad enough seeing my gains rapidly eroded.

Yes, oil went too far too fast and the wastefulness of our western world is now being curbed. Hence an increased supply cushion. But once this supply gap narrows again, we are going to have to dig deeper and deeper.

Because sooner or later, Oil will go higher again. As for timing I cant be sure.Thank goodness some of my CSG stocks ( which have been hammered ) got their capital raisings done earlier in the year.

If NZO does go to $1.30 I will be topping up because l this could double in the right environment, especially with Kupe and Pike coming on stream.

[temuk]

Topped up with 6000 today.

Surely the price won't go much lower?????

[Chalice]

As I said on the 8th .. Bermuda... if the price drops to $1.50 ish... we could soon see $1.35...there are a lot of fools out there who took up their oppies with help from Mr Visa and Mrs Mastercard.... hopefully ( without being horrible) I am right as I would relish the opportunity to buy in the mid or low $1.30s....
Also waiting for Dodgy Kev to tip over so I can pick up some National Props at 40c.

cheers ... Croesus

2800000 shares held by Leverage Equities (#18 on top 20 shareholders list) so undoubtely a % who will be exposed there too.

I do hope that those "Mr Visa and Mrs Mastercard fools" don't get burnt - they after all contributed to the very good cash position the company is in (which will help all going forward given prudent investment decisions) and with Financial Insts collapsing there is enough pain in NZ already.

Enough upside short/medium term with NZO to give spectacular returns @ either 1.35 or 1.50.

BTW - any chance that huge cash pile, or part, was converted to $US given the indication of overseas investment?

[fish]

Topped up with 6000 today.

Surely the price won't go much lower?????

Dont think so-but as bermuda says who knows .


Personally I didnt believe there would be any significant trading below $1.50-its simply irrational-but in the short term sentiment (emotion ) willl over-ride reason (fundamentals)
As long as you have the money I dont see how you can go wrong long-term by buying at the current price .

[Chalice]

Dont think so-but as bermuda says who knows .


Personally I didnt believe there would be any significant trading below $1.50-its simply irrational-but in the short term sentiment (emotion ) willl over-ride reason (fundamentals)
As long as you have the money I dont see how you can go wrong long-term by buying at the current price .

I think the cease fire in Georgia, Asian oil down again at the mo & sentiment (rather than fundamentals - that is NZO not market) will make for a very interesting open tomorrow.

[Sideshow Bob]

If the market was rational, probably we wouldn't be at $1.49 now!! Given what is happening elsewhere, just have to go with the flow (so to speak).

[Rabbi]

Topped up with 6000 today.

Surely the price won't go much lower?????

You should have asked your broker if the bell was ringing- you know - the one that rings when a share hits bottom.:cool:

I don't know of any taxi drivers or bus boys who were buying shares, so the present situation has not got that 1929 over-exuberance. Notwithstanding, the dumping of oil stocks over the past week sure has indicated a propensity to panic by some investors. The fact that the downward spiral has been on low volume, does give some hope that when the big fish start buying again, we might see an upswing.:)

[Mingeathinaikos]

Dont think so-but as bermuda says who knows .


Personally I didnt believe there would be any significant trading below $1.50-its simply irrational-but in the short term sentiment (emotion ) willl over-ride reason (fundamentals)
As long as you have the money I dont see how you can go wrong long-term by buying at the current price .

Fish, your recent posts are showing more and more panic, under that continual cloak of ramping.....
How far away is your margin call may I ask?

Disc: Hold NZO

[bk]

I don't think so. I must admit, I would not have expected NZO to dip below $1.50, or the price of oil to go below $115 a barrel, but looking at the numbers below this is not exceptional

this little table (more details at http://energybulletin.net/node/46199) shows the price of oil at selected points in time, and the percentage increase or decrease since the previous point

1984 $28
1988 $15 -46%
1990 $23 +53%
1994 $16 -30%
1996 $20 +25%
1998 $12 -40%
2000 $27 +125%
2002 $23 -23%
2008 $147 +539%
2008 $115 -22%

clearly the increases show an uptrend outweighing the occasional drop. At the beginning of this year we were all excited (or worried) that the magical $100 barrel was broken, and now a drop to 15% ABOVE this level is supposed to show that we can forget about Peak Oil?

My worry is a strengthening recession possibly rolling into a depression - that could for a while reverse the price of oil big time, and with it the price of NZO. But if that were to happen there is more to worry about than the price of NZO, the long emergency comes to mind (Kunstler).

I still think NZO will hit $2.00 by the end of the year (although my confidence is somewhat dented), and the price of oil will race it to the $200 mark by the end of the year. In the meantime, for those who can read the tea leaves better than I NZO will be a good stock to pick at the bottom.

[Drone]

Hi all, does anyone know exactly when the results are to be announced? Last year was Aug 29.

Thanks

[777]

NZO has a very good website that has all this information Drone.

http://investorcentre.nzog.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=171108&p=irol-calendar

[Drone]

NZO has a very good website that has all this information Drone.

http://investorcentre.nzog.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=171108&p=irol-calendar

Thanks, I didn't see it on there when looked

[bermuda]

Hi all, does anyone know exactly when the results are to be announced? Last year was Aug 29.

Thanks

I should know. August the 29th. My Birthday.

I read a very good economic global summary yesterday. A couple of quotes.

'When your neighbour has to sell his house you know you are in a recession'.

When you have to sell your own house you know you are in a depression. And this caught my eye.

A rolling loan gathers no loss.

John Ryder puts out this very well put together global summary

[Casa del Energia]

I don't think so. I must admit, I would not have expected NZO to dip below $1.50, or the price of oil to go below $115 a barrel, but looking at the numbers below this is not exceptional......

.........the bottom.

Fascinating set of figures.

And watch what happens if you take the base price of $28 in 1984 and roll it forward using the CPI index - (third column)

Actual CPI adj.

1984 $28
1988 $15 -46% $46
1990 $23 +53% $51
1994 $16 -30% $55
1996 $20 +25% $58
1998 $12 -40% $60
2000 $27 +125% $61
2002 $23 -23% $65
2008 $147 +539% $76 (qtr 1)
2008 $115 -22% $77

[Drone]

I'm out this morning, luckily managed to get my holding away before the bid orders dried up altogether... the stock sadly seems to have lost any connection to fundamentals. Must be leveraged players getting bounced out. The next couple of weeks will be interesting.. However I think people will be wise to hold going into the results announcements, the stock will get a bounce there like we saw with revenue I think. So look to get back in prior to that or if the price drops to just silly levels.

[Phaedrus]

Here is an update of this (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?p=213681)chart from 3 weeks ago.

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/NZO813.gif

You can see that NZO has now clearly broken below the support at +/- $1.52 that had held since April. This also marks the end of the "medium-term" uptrend that had been running since January. NZO is now in a confirmed downtrend.


The fact that the downward spiral has been on low volume does give some hope
False hope, I'm afraid, Rabbi. The blue line marks NZO's average volume and it is easy to see the the downtrend is on high volumes - much higher than average.


It is an exercise in futility to argue with this market, as it is not trading on fundamentals, but fear and panic. Accordingly, in this climate, TA is pretty ineffective.
This quote is from the CUE thread, Rabbi, but I'm sure you feel that it also pertains to NZO. Naturally, I strongly disagree! Right now (as always) market sentiment is overpowering fundamental considerations. TA works by monitoring market sentiment, so at times like this TA is very effective. It is FA that is "pretty ineffective" in this climate.


In the meantime, my advice is, batten down the hatches and be stoic. (again from CUE, but I figure you would have the same attitude to NZO) Fair enough - each to his own. My advice is be watching from the sidelines, looking to buy back in again when NZO has stopped falling and started to rise again. In the meantime, "staunch" holders are giving their profits back to the market.

(The chart shows the latest price of $1.47. The Close may well be different.)

[777]

There must be nearly enough money in the bank to cover $1.47 per share.

[fabs]

An other not imposible scenario.

Oil from 147 to 113=34 NZO from 1.90 to 1.45=45
113to 79=34 1.45to 1.00=45
79to 62 =17 1.00to 67=23
take your pick!

Diskl. Still hold nzo at avr. cost of 32 c sold 100k at 1.75 before the free fall.

[Dr_Who]

Whats gonna happen to those that mortgage their house to buy NZO?

Lets becareful out there people.

[Chalice]

There must be nearly enough money in the bank to cover $1.47 per share.

Atleast $0.75/share cash, and increasing by a cent every 10 days or so + say another 45 cents for Pike @ 1.80 which means we have around 25 cents for Tui & Kupe - Ah such a fickle thing the market is, just wish I wasn't building at the moment...

[blockhead]

You know you could borrow all the money for a takeover and have the interest covered in 3 - 4 months, rest of the year is profit. Might head in to Timaru and see if Alan Hubbard has enough change lying around

[Drone]

Although a share buyback above $1.50 would look a bit funny given they just "issued" at that level, I think they could easily justify buying back at below those levels if they can't soon find a home for the cash.

[Chalice]

You know you could borrow all the money for a takeover and have the interest covered in 3 - 4 months, rest of the year is profit. Might head in to Timaru and see if Alan Hubbard has enough change lying around

Want to go halves?
BTW Tapis trading at or near all time differential of +$US10-11, so still over $US120/$NZ170.

[Drone]

Want to go halves?
BTW Tapis trading at or near all time differential of +$US10-11, so still over $US120/$NZ170.

Count me in, current market cap approx $565m, net cash circa $300m (and going up 4m a week) pike stake $150m.

so market values Kupe, Tui future cashflows and the exploration rights at about $115m. You'd have to say that couldn't really go much lower than say $1.35, at which point the cash and pike stake would be getting very close to the market cap! And people think the market is efficient...

If someone could take over the company for say $2. I'd say they would unlock value in the order of half a billion dollars.

[Naylz]

coudlnt this market be manipulated very easily now. there are about 118000 buy offers. lets say someone put 100000 shares to sell at market, it would drop the price to about 1.31? small volume but a drop nonetheless and then stop losses kick in. Im a relative newbie so dont know much about this but does it make sense?

[duncan macgregor]

coudlnt this market be manipulated very easily now. there are about 118000 buy offers. lets say someone put 100000 shares to sell at market, it would drop the price to about 1.31? small volume but a drop nonetheless and then stop losses kick in. Dont you think that people with stop losses are bright enough to be long gone before now?. I would think its the braindead being stirred back to life before the baliff knocks on the door. The hold at all cost brigade are still convinced they are right.
The falling tide takes all ships down regardless of how well they are built. Look out for the crash its still coming. Macdunk

[upside_umop]

I think he Naylz could be referring to margin calls md.
If thats the case, and they start getting called for more funds, they have to sell shares to fund the call. If NZO is only share held, then thats what they have to sell. If there is shallow depth, they have to take what they can get...and we see the shareprice fall away rapidly :( A bit of a vicious cycle really.

[Excelsior]

There must be nearly enough money in the bank to cover $1.47 per share.

True, but that money is going to be used to drill a deep hole that could well be dry. Let's hope that NZO hold onto that cash and buy a good producer at a good price. No rush IMO

[upside_umop]

DIGGER, would you say now that a partial option hedge would be worth thinking about? Ie for a portion of their oil production? Everyone thinks oil is heading lower and lower, and a hedge would take oil price uncertainty out of the way. In this case, I think it would work in the interests of the company and shareholders. Depends on your own outlook i guess.

[peterfindlay]

It is an imprecise science picking the bottom of a share price or that of a commodity, and it is just as hard to pick the turning point and the top of such prices.

Whilst it may appear obvious, it is important to maintain your nerve and confidence in your investment, as well as in the Board of Directors and management team. No matter what the environment, some investors will always need to sell as changing circumstances inevitability affects most of us during our lifetime. It is just a pity if the need to sell occurs at such a time as this, when fear and uncertainty prevail, and fundamental value seems to go out the window, and the value drivers that remain intact, seem to have been ignored or overlooked.

NZOG and Pike River seems to have displayed a SP performance that represents an inverse relationship to those of many other leading stocks on the NZX. I agree with earlier comments that at present, there are many shares that are undervalued. The art is in separating the wheat from the chaff, and looking through the distinguishing features of good value versus exceptional value.

In an environment where cash is king, a high degree of certainty around both cash generation and profitability is worth more than a low degree of certainty.
In this case we have:


A rapidly depreciating $NZ that will fall well beyond most forecasts of an average of 70 cents in FY2009.
Turnover for FY2009 that is likely to be close to $200 million (and rising thereafter), assuming NZOG's share of Tui production at 1.125 mmbl, at an average of US$120 and a conversion rate of 69 cents. Each additional 100,000 bbl to NZOG is worth approx NZ$17 million.
Any further downward pressure on the oil price appears likely to be more than compensated by Tui production outperforming expectations of 9 mmbl (or NZOG share of 1.125 mmbl), and further $NZ currency depreciation resulting in the $NZ average for FY09 being considerably lower than 69 - 70 cents.
Kupe gas presold to Genesis at contracted prices with built in indexing of this pricing i.e. price only upwards, no potential reset downwards.
Kupe LPG being substituted for imported LPG, therefore sold at world prices, and gaining a market share in excess of 20%.
Tapis oil out of Tui being of excellent quality and in short supply in south East Asia. Note that the Tapis premium has widened considerably in recent weeks.
Pike River has sold approximately 70% of life of mine production at world prices.
By world standards, a very acceptable break even point for the Tui oil JV and the Pike River coking coal operation.
Further front end loading of Tui cash flow is highly likely as a result of modifications to the FPSO in the 2008 calendar year. The SP effect of this has been noted by McDouall Stuart as 13 cps.
Further upward revision to the Kupe reserves highly likely (name a Taranaki gas field that hasn't substantially exceeded initial reserve estimates) and therefore the amount and duration of cash generation will increase in the near term.
The Brunner seam at Pike River overlays the Paparoa seam. The Paparoa seam is highly likely to be investigated, with reserves estimates and a mine plan determined within 18 months. Again, this is conducive to additional cash flow, and is likely to increase the value of the underlying asset.
Due to the depreciation of the $NZ, and the purchase of most Forex at much better rates than prevail today, the underlying value, or sunk investment in Tui, Kupe, and Pike is now worth more.
It always make sense to separate the assets out i.e. Tui, Pike, Kupe...etc, and compare these to the the valuation implied by the market. Over recent months, many brokers have confirmed the significant difference between the implied valuation and their own, with some suggestions that NZOG could now be the prey rather than the predator. It is not hard to see why this view is gaining currency. My view is that as Pike, and Kupe near completion, or start producing, the valuation gap will widen. Reserve and/or production upgrades to Kupe and possibly Tui are likely to further widen the valuation gap, and contribute to the trend of a significant valuation gap.

Pike River is a world class mine, with a very high grade of HCC, a transport agreement that allows some increase in mine production, and is sitting on additional reserves that have been valued at nil. A distribution of NZOG's PRC shares to NZOG shareholders won't ever happen as the realisation of the strategic premium from NZOG's 31% stake wouldn't be realised. NZOG have 2 directors on the Pike River board, so they ought to be able to gauge a good time to sell. Contrary to market perception and behaviour, HCC is on a very solid price track, with pricing expectations for FY10 above US$300 tonne. Pike River is a pure HCC play, whereas most other coal have a mix of both coking and thermal coal. So it appears that the Pike River SP is getting caught up in the general malaise around commodity and coal stocks rather than anything that is coking coal specific.

Dividends
There has been considerable comment about dividends. NZOG have announced that dividends relating to FY08 have been paid. The criteria relating to the payment of dividends for subsequent years have been outlined.

The low CAPEX for FY09 certainly seems to be conducive to payment of a healthy dividend for FY09, with broker expectations ranging from 5 cps to 10.9 cps. As the SP is at a significant discount to valuation, it is arguable that retention of cash to be used for dividends will not be fully reflected in the SP, and is therefore better paid out to shareholders. Certainly, the shareholders could do with it, cash flow warrants healthy dividend payments (i.e. an interim and a final) for FY09 (i.e. around or in excess of 10cps), and in a NZ context is very likely to underpin the SP which can only be a good thing, as it prevents further erosion of shareholder value.

For many reasons, including the quality and increasing nature of the cash flow, the anticipated positive trend in both reserves and the underlying value of the assets, together with other reasons that have been weighed up and outlined above, my view is that both NZOG and Pike appear oversold. NZ has a tendency to undervalue its shares, particularly those that it is not overly familiar with. It appears that this behaviour is more prevalent than ever, and in NZOG's case may require an outsider to recognise its real value. I hope this is not the case, and certainly the task of the Directors and management team is to support and facilitate the creation of value, and to communicate this to shareholders and the market, but they may remain challenged for this to be reflected in the SP.

Here is a link to an article that appeared overnight on CNBC, and which contains the view the commodity prices and oil will turn in the short term. http://www.cnbc.com/id/26158141

[Casa del Energia]

I think he Naylz could be referring to margin calls md.
If thats the case, and they start getting called for more funds, they have to sell shares to fund the call. If NZO is only share held, then thats what they have to sell. If there is shallow depth, they have to take what they can get...and we see the shareprice fall away rapidly :( A bit of a vicious cycle really.


That might be the story - it appears to be smaller parcels traded. Perhaps sell downs of part holding to resolve gearing problems.

($1.42 at the mo)

[pietrade]

Yeah, sell down a few to reduce the margin and thus provide some cash to buy back at a lower price . Could well be a strategy being deployed.

[Chalice]

That might be the story - it appears to be smaller parcels traded. Perhaps sell downs of part holding to resolve gearing problems.

($1.42 at the mo)

I don't think so - if holding/leveraging only NZO then selling part below 1.50 wont help at all - it will infact be counterproductive.

For those who have leveraged with multiple shareholdings and assuming the other shares held reflect the general market, value has been reasonably steady over the past week (up over past 4 trading days) so not a driver.

I think it is predominantly a world wide sell down of commodities that is now beginning to influnce sentiment here - have a look at how badly Aussie oilers have been whipped recently - much worse than NZO.

Do recognise your point pietrade, but see McD's post 6076 - % of holders selling at the moment likely/clued to do so???

[sideline]

I don't think so - if holding/leveraging only NZO then selling part below 1.50 wont help at all - it will infact be counterproductive.



Exactly, by depressing the price it will simply trigger the next margin call.

[Chalice]

Exactly, by depressing the price it will simply trigger the next margin call.

I should have actually stated "selling below buffer margin price would be counterproductive" as it would actually increase your leverage i.e. 5% buffer = 142.5 so selling at 142 would actually require further cash rather as any selldown would further increase leverage.

[pietrade]

I'm sure that there's a multitude of reasons for people to sell but one could choose to be pro-active and quit a parcel somewhat ahead of a margin call, thus providing an increased buffer, as well as funds for a possible buy-back. Just speculating -----

[Rabbi]

My advice is be watching from the sidelines, looking to buy back in again when NZO has stopped falling and started to rise again. In the meantime, "staunch" holders are giving their profits back to the market.


Thanks for the charts and the delineation of TA Phaedras.

To be honest I didn't have a good enough look at the volume, and accept that you must be right as you are analyzing the situation day by day. I am aware that a stock can come under "distribution", as punters get out "en masse" when sentiment turns sour.

Personally, I prefer to weather the storm, but in saying that, I agree there are opportunities for those that sold early to re-enter when market sentiment turns.

[AMR]

Personally, I prefer to weather the storm, but in saying that, I agree there are opportunities for those that sold early to re-enter when market sentiment turns.

I was planning to do the same until I saw the US dollar and realised that it was one and the same move. To hold oil now is to fight Ben Bernanke and his anti-inflation efforts...and Ben is a tough fellow.

Looking at those ozzie oilers with greed, the POO doesn't need to be $130, it can be $100 and they will still do great. It just has to stop falling.

[Crypto Crude]

hahaa...
hey mackdunk, phaedrus...
I can see almost every aussie oiler is falling, apart from one...
later you cats...
:cool:
.^sc

[argonaut]

Yep Shrewdie - good old RRS lol

[Crypto Crude]

That company does not count...
Range principal activities, "taker of money"...
company activities involve hiding money so shareholders never see it again...
:cool:
.^sc

[Chalice]

I'm sure that there's a multitude of reasons for people to sell but one could choose to be pro-active and quit a parcel somewhat ahead of a margin call, thus providing an increased buffer, as well as funds for a possible buy-back. Just speculating -----

Yeah. good call mate.

[Dr_Who]

Hedge funds and short traders are having an impact on all oilers and commodity stocks, including NZO and PRC. Sentiment has taken over fundamentals.

[neopole]

wont be long before opec starts to reduce output from its full on pace.
and the nz$ is sliding almost as fast as the poo.

and some1 is willing to buy the 1million plus shares at a discount.

i cant see any problem for long term investors
just the punters getting punted

[Lion]

Tapis down 0.4% today
But $NZ down 1.12%
so Tapis is UP in $NZ
Yet NZO down, 4.7% today!
Whew! Talk about irrational

I reckon the company should be buying back at under 150. I can't see anyone who stumped up 150 to convert options complaining about that.

[bermuda]

Hi all, does anyone know exactly when the results are to be announced? Last year was Aug 29.

Thanks

Just got home from a great day. NZO wont go much lower. I am old enough to know why.

[BigBob]

Tapis down 0.4% today
But $NZ down 1.12%
so Tapis is UP in $NZ
Yet NZO down, 4.7% today!
Whew! Talk about irrational


Reminds me of the famous ol' saying...: "The markets can stay irrational far longer than you and I can stay liquid...".... don't remember who said it tho.....

[Mick100]

Reminds me of the famous ol' saying...: "The markets can stay irrational far longer than you and I can stay liquid...".... don't remember who said it tho.....

So true

John M. Keynes

[croesus]

Hey.. Bermuda.... tell us more..." NZO won't go much lower I am old enough to know why"...

are you saying age equates to wisdom... ??...as I said last week... $1.35....my pick...." won't go much lower "... hmm .. is that $1.40..or $1.38 ??.... $1.36 ??......
with out being horrible.... there are lots of punters who borrowed to exercise.... some now have to pay the ferryman...

[Mick100]

[quote=croesus;218102]Hey.. Bermuda.... tell us more..." NZO won't go much lower I am old enough to know why"...

[quote]

I'll jump in and answer your querry croesus, with the bermuda stock standard reply:

oil goes higher
read twighlight in the desert:D

[bob.not.a.builder]

I'm reading it at the moment. Up to part about smaller off shore oil fields.

But at this rate I see oil being under $100 soon. Why has consumer demand taken a slide? I sold my NZO for $1.67, had to make a stop loss. Very small amount through.

[duncan macgregor]

I'm reading it at the moment. Up to part about smaller off shore oil fields.

But at this rate I see oil being under $100 soon. Why has consumer demand taken a slide? I sold my NZO for $1.67, had to make a stop loss. Very small amount through. I hate to keep telling you lot the same thing. Downtrend up to the olympics followed by a crash. Oil will reach $200 a barrel within 12 months when China sticks the boot in. Right now nothing must interfere with this great coming out party, they will manipulate the price of oil to suit the occasion. America will be taken out in a peacefull financial way regardless of the cost. I expect the markets to crash when that happens. Macdunk

[Mick100]

I'm reading it at the moment. Up to part about smaller off shore oil fields.

But at this rate I see oil being under $100 soon. Why has consumer demand taken a slide? I sold my NZO for $1.67, had to make a stop loss. Very small amount through.

I'll be surprised if oil goes below $100
Oil markets are running on sentiment at the moment - not fundermentals
sentiment will change in the blink of an eye
We have just had 1.1 million barrels/day taken off market with the blowing up of the baku-tibilesi-ceyon pipeline in turkey (the same pipeline runs through Georgia) The demand destruction that every body is talking about will soon lose it's impact if it is found that inventories are still falling due to increased demand from asia. We are currently in the shoulder season when demand is seasonally lower between driving season and heating season in the northern hemp. Hurricane season is just around the corner
No, I can't see oil going below $100/bbl
,

[bermuda]

[quote=croesus;218102]Hey.. Bermuda.... tell us more..." NZO won't go much lower I am old enough to know why"...

[quote]

I'll jump in and answer your querry croesus, with the bermuda stock standard reply:

oil goes higher
read twighlight in the desert:D

Yeah,
I suppose if you believe a story, you have to keep believing in it.

Mick, Have you read the book? Skol hasnt...but to be fair he is beating me hands down.

Oil goes higher.

[Nitaa]

I'll be surprised if oil goes below $100
Oil markets are running on sentiment at the moment - not fundermentals
sentiment will change in the blink of an eye
We have just had 1.1 million barrels/day taken off market with the blowing up of the baku-tibilesi-ceyon pipeline in turkey (the same pipeline runs through Georgia) The demand destruction that every body is talking about will soon lose it's impact if it is found that inventories are still falling due to increased demand from asia. We are currently in the shoulder season when demand is seasonally lower between driving season and heating season in the northern hemp. Hurricane season is just around the corner
No, I can't see oil going below $100/bbl
,
Hi all and Duncan.

A bit happening since i last posted here. Duncans ears are pricked up and yes oil is taking a good beating at present.

What has changed? Long term not much however short term there is plenty. Chinas imports of crude oil has dropped 7% in July alone. Add that to a population of 1.3b and that is saying something. Next question why some may ask? 3 key reasons. China has recently reduced a lot of the subsideys there oil is now extremely expensive for the average Tom,. Dick and now Wong. Next is the holiday season where many factories shut down (plus factories especially in Bejing) therefore it adds to a reduction in consumption. 3rd is a general slowdown in overall growth and china coming of the boil of their dizzy 10% pa growth.

One other thing that cannot be dismissed is the lag effect (therefore sudden impact of fast rising crude prices bring a screaching slowdown in consumption). Guess what, oil prices are spiraling down only for consumers to start changing theri habits and therefore consumption increases.

As i pointed out in the past (even md can quote me here) i beleive that oil prices dropping to around the current levels are almost the perfect scenario for NZO and their repsective jv partners in tui. remember many were going wow oil hit $100. Now many think the sky is falling in coz oil is over $110.

However as one smart poster pointed out, nz currency is crashing which is offsetting the oil prices to an extent. initial capex for tui, pike and kupe pretty much taken care off. now nzo are creaming on the currency with its current and future revenue.

Ask yourselves this question. Look at a snapshot of nzo balance sheet today.. its prospects, revenue, oil prices. Where would you want to invest?

Fully support you Bermuda.. go nzo and you should remember. the sp today is irrelevant (whether $1.40 or $4.40) its only relevant at what you sell it for.

[Rif-Raf]

It is an imprecise science picking the bottom of a share price or that of a commodity, and it is just as hard to pick the turning point and the top of such prices.

Whilst it may appear obvious, it is important to maintain your nerve and confidence in your investment, as well as in the Board of Directors and management team. No matter what the environment, some investors will always need to sell as changing circumstances inevitability affects most of us during our lifetime. It is just a pity if the need to sell occurs at such a time as this, when fear and uncertainty prevail, and fundamental value seems to go out the window, and the value drivers that remain intact, seem to have been ignored or overlooked.

NZOG and Pike River seems to have displayed a SP performance that represents an inverse relationship to those of many other leading stocks on the NZX. I agree with earlier comments that at present, there are many shares that are undervalued. The art is in separating the wheat from the chaff, and looking through the distinguishing features of good value versus exceptional value.

In an environment where cash is king, a high degree of certainty around both cash generation and profitability is worth more than a low degree of certainty.
In this case we have:


A rapidly depreciating $NZ that will fall well beyond most forecasts of an average of 70 cents in FY2009.
Turnover for FY2009 that is likely to be close to $200 million (and rising thereafter), assuming NZOG's share of Tui production at 1.125 mmbl, at an average of US$120 and a conversion rate of 69 cents. Each additional 100,000 bbl to NZOG is worth approx NZ$17 million.
Any further downward pressure on the oil price appears likely to be more than compensated by Tui production outperforming expectations of 9 mmbl (or NZOG share of 1.125 mmbl), and further $NZ currency depreciation resulting in the $NZ average for FY09 being considerably lower than 69 - 70 cents.
Kupe gas presold to Genesis at contracted prices with built in indexing of this pricing i.e. price only upwards, no potential reset downwards.
Kupe LPG being substituted for imported LPG, therefore sold at world prices, and gaining a market share in excess of 20%.
Tapis oil out of Tui being of excellent quality and in short supply in south East Asia. Note that the Tapis premium has widened considerably in recent weeks.
Pike River has sold approximately 70% of life of mine production at world prices.
By world standards, a very acceptable break even point for the Tui oil JV and the Pike River coking coal operation.
Further front end loading of Tui cash flow is highly likely as a result of modifications to the FPSO in the 2008 calendar year. The SP effect of this has been noted by McDouall Stuart as 13 cps.
Further upward revision to the Kupe reserves highly likely (name a Taranaki gas field that hasn't substantially exceeded initial reserve estimates) and therefore the amount and duration of cash generation will increase in the near term.
The Brunner seam at Pike River overlays the Paparoa seam. The Paparoa seam is highly likely to be investigated, with reserves estimates and a mine plan determined within 18 months. Again, this is conducive to additional cash flow, and is likely to increase the value of the underlying asset.
Due to the depreciation of the $NZ, and the purchase of most Forex at much better rates than prevail today, the underlying value, or sunk investment in Tui, Kupe, and Pike is now worth more.
It always make sense to separate the assets out i.e. Tui, Pike, Kupe...etc, and compare these to the the valuation implied by the market. Over recent months, many brokers have confirmed the significant difference between the implied valuation and their own, with some suggestions that NZOG could now be the prey rather than the predator. It is not hard to see why this view is gaining currency. My view is that as Pike, and Kupe near completion, or start producing, the valuation gap will widen. Reserve and/or production upgrades to Kupe and possibly Tui are likely to further widen the valuation gap, and contribute to the trend of a significant valuation gap.

Pike River is a world class mine, with a very high grade of HCC, a transport agreement that allows some increase in mine production, and is sitting on additional reserves that have been valued at nil. A distribution of NZOG's PRC shares to NZOG shareholders won't ever happen as the realisation of the strategic premium from NZOG's 31% stake wouldn't be realised. NZOG have 2 directors on the Pike River board, so they ought to be able to gauge a good time to sell. Contrary to market perception and behaviour, HCC is on a very solid price track, with pricing expectations for FY10 above US$300 tonne. Pike River is a pure HCC play, whereas most other coal have a mix of both coking and thermal coal. So it appears that the Pike River SP is getting caught up in the general malaise around commodity and coal stocks rather than anything that is coking coal specific.

Dividends
There has been considerable comment about dividends. NZOG have announced that dividends relating to FY08 have been paid. The criteria relating to the payment of dividends for subsequent years have been outlined.

The low CAPEX for FY09 certainly seems to be conducive to payment of a healthy dividend for FY09, with broker expectations ranging from 5 cps to 10.9 cps. As the SP is at a significant discount to valuation, it is arguable that retention of cash to be used for dividends will not be fully reflected in the SP, and is therefore better paid out to shareholders. Certainly, the shareholders could do with it, cash flow warrants healthy dividend payments (i.e. an interim and a final) for FY09 (i.e. around or in excess of 10cps), and in a NZ context is very likely to underpin the SP which can only be a good thing, as it prevents further erosion of shareholder value.

For many reasons, including the quality and increasing nature of the cash flow, the anticipated positive trend in both reserves and the underlying value of the assets, together with other reasons that have been weighed up and outlined above, my view is that both NZOG and Pike appear oversold. NZ has a tendency to undervalue its shares, particularly those that it is not overly familiar with. It appears that this behaviour is more prevalent than ever, and in NZOG's case may require an outsider to recognise its real value. I hope this is not the case, and certainly the task of the Directors and management team is to support and facilitate the creation of value, and to communicate this to shareholders and the market, but they may remain challenged for this to be reflected in the SP.

Here is a link to an article that appeared overnight on CNBC, and which contains the view the commodity prices and oil will turn in the short term. http://www.cnbc.com/id/26158141

An example of some of the excellent posts on this thread!

[Mick100]

What has changed? Long term not much however short term there is plenty. Chinas imports of crude oil has dropped 7% in July alone. Add that to a population of 1.3b and that is saying something. Next question why some may ask? 3 key reasons. China has recently reduced a lot of the subsideys there oil is now extremely expensive for the average Tom,. Dick and now Wong. Next is the holiday season where many factories shut down (plus factories especially in Bejing) therefore it adds to a reduction in consumption. 3rd is a general slowdown in overall growth and china coming of the boil of their dizzy 10% pa growth.

.

china is still a controlled economy
in europe and US the only way to reduce demand is with a higher price - ie market forces determine supply/demand
However , in china the govt just gives a directive such as - "in july we will use 7% less oil than in the previous month" - simple as that
The govt controls imports through their control over the issue of foreign exchange. You need foreign exchange to import, and in china you have to get permission from the govt to get foreign exchange. In china the govt can control which, and how much , of each commodity is imported over any period of time.

digger mentioned some time ago that china oil demand was about to drop
I think china's reduced demand for oil and other commodities will be temporary - come oct-nov, when all the factories are up and running again it will be all on as they rebuild depleted inventories.

macdunk makes a valid point - china don't want everyone worrying about the price of oil while the games are on - they want the spotlight firmly on china


bermuda - I read twighlight years ago - one of many peak oil books i'v read
Don't you think it's about time you read another book - a different one !
,

[the machine]

with the falling nz $ and nzo expectation that will have to expand offshore to some degree,then one would hope the $ in the bank are not only in nz$, the value ofwhich seems to be going down daily

M

[duncan macgregor]

EVEN MICK minus that hundred is on to it. China is the reason oil is dropping right now. Stock up the tank at home guys the price of oil will reach $200 a barrel next year when China takes the rug out from under the Yank economy. I dont know how this will trend the NZO sp, but it will crash the market. NITA if you dont wake up to yourself you will find yourself with your knickers in one hand, and a cab fare in the other wondering what the hell happened. Macdunk

[Chalice]

EVEN MICK minus that hundred is on to it. China is the reason oil is dropping right now. Stock up the tank at home guys the price of oil will reach $200 a barrel next year when China takes the rug out from under the Yank economy. I dont know how this will trend the NZO sp, but it will crash the market. NITA if you dont wake up to yourself you will find yourself with your knickers in one hand, and a cab fare in the other wondering what the hell happened. Macdunk

Maybe yesterday was an attempt to finally sort out the remaining wheat from the chaff, trades are in unusuallly big blocks today...

[bermuda]

china is still a controlled economy
in europe and US the only way to reduce demand is with a higher price - ie market forces determine supply/demand
However , in china the govt just gives a directive such as - "in july we will use 7% less oil than in the previous month" - simple as that
The govt controls imports through their control over the issue of foreign exchange. You need foreign exchange to import, and in china you have to get permission from the govt to get foreign exchange. In china the govt can control which, and how much , of each commodity is imported over any period of time.

digger mentioned some time ago that china oil demand was about to drop
I think china's reduced demand for oil and other commodities will be temporary - come oct-nov, when all the factories are up and running again it will be all on as they rebuild depleted inventories.

macdunk makes a valid point - china don't want everyone worrying about the price of oil while the games are on - they want the spotlight firmly on china


bermuda - I read twighlight years ago - one of many peak oil books i'v read
Don't you think it's about time you read another book - a different one !
,

Hi Mick,

Twilight in the Desert. Still the best around. And I have met Matt. Not an egotist but a very well informed individual. (And studies butterflies in Bermuda as well! )

It is worth re-reading. I probably spend far too much time reading up on oil...well that is according to my daughter.

Oil, a precious finite resource.

[trackers]

Maybe yesterday was an attempt to finally sort out the remaining wheat from the chaff, trades are in unusuallly big blocks today...

Yep, very good rally today. Good overnight rise in the Brent due to much less than expected US supply stocks is probably a leading cause, and obviously NZO is tremendously oversold.

[peterfindlay]

Subsequent to my comments yesterday, ABN Amro have released updated research. NZO's website has been updated to incorporate this research, and refers to an upwardly revised valuation of $2.37 (previously $2.27). A couple of additional comments that may be of interest are:

"We believe NZO has been oversold recently.

Our downside case using US$38/bbl and PRC at market produces a valuation of NZ$1.73.
The Tui valuation, cash and tax loss components total NZ$1.45, higher than the current market price of NZ$1.42, effectively providing today's investors with NZO's Kupe and PRC investments for free.

We have valued NZO on current 2P reserves extraction from its investments, although we continue to believe NZO is well positioned to provide upside from successful exploration and development activity, and increases in reserves. We continue to believe NZO represents an excellent opportunity for investors seeking upside to value despite the recent softening of global oil prices."

[Nitaa]

EVEN MICK minus that hundred is on to it. China is the reason oil is dropping right now. Stock up the tank at home guys the price of oil will reach $200 a barrel next year when China takes the rug out from under the Yank economy. I dont know how this will trend the NZO sp, but it will crash the market. NITA if you dont wake up to yourself you will find yourself with your knickers in one hand, and a cab fare in the other wondering what the hell happened. MacdunkI will spell it out for you my friend.

China as mick100 pointed out is controlled. however dont forget that the government recently reduced the subsidies making petrol jump higher. Chinas demand has slowed for the exact reasons i pointed out in my last post. demand not there then prices drop. it is not rocket science my friend. come september as guess what, chinas consumption rises and its as simple as that.

i thing i see about you mcdunk is you love to see others loses money. (despite what you say next) you try to instill fear into people and during the course of a year will will be proven right at some stage. In fact everyone who makes various predictions become right. Just like my prediction that oil will drop to $110 to $120.

Front up, be a man, stop being a broken record and say something constructive. I ebcourage opposite views but you are gulable to think that you are the one who knows everything and everyone else knows nothing. THat is the way your posts come across.

THe personal attack of me with the knickers and cab etc is just what i expect. grow up and get with th program

[Nitaa]

Subsequent to my comments yesterday, ABN Amro have released updated research. NZO's website has been updated to incorporate this research, and refers to an upwardly revised valuation of $2.37 (previously $2.27). A couple of additional comments that may be of interest are:

"We believe NZO has been oversold recently.

Our downside case using US$38/bbl and PRC at market produces a valuation of NZ$1.73.
The Tui valuation, cash and tax loss components total NZ$1.45, higher than the current market price of NZ$1.42, effectively providing today's investors with NZO's Kupe and PRC investments for free.

We have valued NZO on current 2P reserves extraction from its investments, although we continue to believe NZO is well positioned to provide upside from successful exploration and development activity, and increases in reserves. We continue to believe NZO represents an excellent opportunity for investors seeking upside to value despite the recent softening of global oil prices."here is a perfect reason why investors holding nzo should not listen to md

[Casa del Energia]

Subsequent to my comments yesterday, ABN Amro have released updated research. NZO's website has been updated to incorporate this research, and refers to an upwardly revised valuation of $2.37 (previously $2.27). A couple of additional comments that may be of interest are:

"We believe NZO has been oversold recently.

Our downside case using US$38/bbl and PRC at market produces a valuation of NZ$1.73.
The Tui valuation, cash and tax loss components total NZ$1.45, higher than the current market price of NZ$1.42, effectively providing today's investors with NZO's Kupe and PRC investments for free.

We have valued NZO on current 2P reserves extraction from its investments, although we continue to believe NZO is well positioned to provide upside from successful exploration and development activity, and increases in reserves. We continue to believe NZO represents an excellent opportunity for investors seeking upside to value despite the recent softening of global oil prices."

Thanks pete. And at the risk of getting shot up again - I re-iterate : surely you'd be insane to have voluntarily sold at $1.42 - could it be an eschelon of leveraged folk that had to sell. - just look at ABNs 'down side' - it's a down side to die for.

[duncan macgregor]

here is a perfect reason why investors holding nzo should not listen to md NITA, People that are stupid enough to listen to brokers advice deserve the brutal learning experience of finding out the hard way. NZO share price was within 16c four years ago to where it is today, yet you shout me down for enlightening the long term punters. Remember i predicted the market to downtrend leading to a crash. Why dont you have a go at that for a change. The Macdunks are out the market this year will come back and pick up the road kill in about 18 months time. It Is not wrong to tell people they will get burnt if they stick their finger in the fire. It certainly does not mean that you take some fiendish delight in watching it happen. I find it a great learning experience to watch a company in such good profit fighting the rising tide of market sentiment. Macdunk
LUVYALIKEABRUDDERYAOLDBAG

[Crypto Crude]

I like you Mackdunk,
But you surely can be such a negative poster...
Your like my Dutch Step grandad...
A real stubborn prick...
Stop acting dutch and start acting Scottish...
you go on and on and on about a crash... yourve said your piece now let us get on with it...
Im prepared for a down trending market (happy to see one)... no one will be safe from a crashing market...
Alot has already been shaved off the top, so perhaps much less of a chance of a big crash as you suggest...
keep this all in perspective...
later you big cat...
your mate shrewdy keeping you in line...(as always)...
:cool:
.^sc

[gazprom1]

Macdunk,

I thought that the purpose of this forum (NOG thread) was for constructive discussion about the issues concerning NOG. As a shareholder in NOG, I would rather hear all the negative possiblities about NOG as this gives me more information and, next to cash, timely and accurate information is king. However, some your posts are not constructive or informative. I don't care if you are holding all your cash in rupees or rubles, it is neither informative nor constructive. Nor is general speculation that the market is going to crash in 12 or 18 months time. All markets correct at some point.

Back on topic, the one big concern IMHO for NOG shareholders is the cash pile. Makes the company vulnerable to a t/o and also it makes me nervous as an investor as I have no idea where that money is going to be spent. I also hope that they are managing the currency exposure.

If it softens tomorrow afternoon, I will be putting my money where my nmouth is.

[Nitaa]

md. Your prediction of oil going to $200 hasnt happended yet therefor no point is playing same tune. same as the stock market will crash after the olympics. I take an opposite view to the stock market crashing after the the olpmics. the markets have had a good correction. china has retracted 50% from last year which had to happen in my view. anyway the next 6 months will tell whos right and whos wrong. my opinion is different to yours so just respect it.

remember i also told you that nzo was a screaming buy when it came down to around $1.00 but you didnt want to beleive that. now looks what has happened and what you have missed out on.

I am also telling you nzo will be a screaming buy under $1.50 even if it gets down to $1.20 or $1.40 ish. You dont hjave to agree but respects other opinion. I have already justified why i think this is with valuations i have put on the projects.

md. accpet that people who have different views to you is ok. even accpet that sometimes Nitas opposite view to you may be right or may prove to be right. dont let your ego get in the way of smart decisions and opinions. just my opinion and i am entitled to it. it doesnt make me a prostitute or brain dead. seem fair enough?

[upside_umop]

I would love to see that sensitivity analysis. Sounds like poo's to me.
A fall to $38 would reduce reserves dramatically.
However, NZD being a commodity currency could drop very low again (maybe thats one of their underlying assumptions)...and we would still see highish denominated NZD earnings...certainly not $1.73 though!

[upside_umop]

OK, i take that last post back...might offend some people.

I understand where hes coming from, as there is a large cash component + pike river coal...but...

-If NZOG were to buy assets now, and oil was to fall to $38 a barrel, NZOG would be significantly under $1.73, as the PV of these cashflows would be reduced majorly and since coal price is correlated to oil, PRC would fall significantly aswell.

-Given that NZOG wants to aquire assets, I would deem this report inaccurate since investors may believe that if oil fell to $38, then NZOG would be still worth $1.73 per share (after they acquire assets at around current prices).

Sharebuyback is best way, under $1.50 since there is no withholding tax on options money.

[Dr_Who]

I did recall Maddunk talking down NZO and PRC below $1.00 only a few months back. I recall, cos I was buying before $1.00 and laughing at him. I am still laughing today, he is a very funny man. Let him rant, it is good for a laugh.

[upside_umop]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/4655855a6160.html

Oil burning power stations are essential to ensure New Zealand does not suffer blackouts in the future, National leader John Key said today.

-----------------------------------------------------
This is good news for local oil and gas - and national :D
-----------------------------------------------------

[Mr Tommy]

I cant see oil price dropping too much more, certainly not to $38.

All OPEC and the other producers have to do is slightly turn off the taps again. They can make up any number of reasons. Im sure theyre quite happy to let it drop a bit like it has, stops everyone moaning and they find something else to complain about, meanwhile they are still banking their zillions.

[duncan macgregor]

Just out of interest lets have a few opinions on the following question.
If the market crashes simply because the price of oil hits $200 a barrel will the share price of NZO trend up with increased profits or trend down with market sentiment.

I say the share price would follow the market down ignoring company fundamentals.
If i am right and the market crashes because of the price of oil what happens next?.
No personal attacks please just an honest opinion. Macdunk

[Crypto Crude]

good question mackdunk, now you are being more constructive...
Right now, I would say that the market is not going to crash so your question is stuffed...
a bit of sideways for the next year and A down trending market perhaps to 9k Dow...maybe 500 there, 300 there... Too much has already been taken away for a crash to then hit...(eg 1500pts, 2000pts)...
The market is already cheap...

Look at what happened in 1987... the market crashed from The tip of its heights... this has been a controlled fall, mainly because the FED and other central banks have stepped in and bailed whoever out, with the get out of jail free card...
In reference to your question...
In a crash, Id say that all oil stocks would trend down with the market apart from one... ;)... and its not NZO... hahaha...
:cool:
.^sc

[Chalice]

Macdunk,

I thought that the purpose of this forum (NOG thread) was for constructive discussion about the issues concerning NOG. As a shareholder in NOG, I would rather hear all the negative possiblities about NOG as this gives me more information and, next to cash, timely and accurate information is king. However, some your posts are not constructive or informative. I don't care if you are holding all your cash in rupees or rubles, it is neither informative nor constructive. Nor is general speculation that the market is going to crash in 12 or 18 months time. All markets correct at some point.

Back on topic, the one big concern IMHO for NOG shareholders is the cash pile. Makes the company vulnerable to a t/o and also it makes me nervous as an investor as I have no idea where that money is going to be spent. I also hope that they are managing the currency exposure.

If it softens tomorrow afternoon, I will be putting my money where my nmouth is.

Hi gazprom,

re: currency, aparently all $ associated with KUPE project is in USD (not sure figure but its significant) & its my understanding the rest in in NZD, at this stage. Would have been good to have a proportion converted to USD post excise!

On another matter, the gas line to Maui is not going to be a money making venture but a reaction to the fact the consent to burn gas is unlikely to be renewed when it expires ...? soonish.

I'm sure NZO would have had liked to announce the couple of projects they are looking at getting into developing by now, probably just a few milestones being pushed out.

[upside_umop]

Hi MacDunk,

It depends under the circumstances that oil hits $200 a barrel.

If it was because the oil market hasnt been transparent enough, and demand/supply were out of balance (without interference from geopolitical), this would be more of a long term feature, which should push oil stocks up.

If it was because things got heated up with the USA/Russia/Iran then we could see oil easily hit $200 but wouldnt be sustainable long term. I would then think it would be slightly positive for NZO, but not hugely. Also depends on their producing assets at the time.

Those are two extreme cases...I think the latter would be more probable at this time, and not sustainable, since demand destruction has already hit a number of countries.

[duncan macgregor]

SHREWDY, Your CUE dropped today. It looks like five bob each way would rocket that companies share price. A controled fall is only a crash in slow motion with the long term investor left holding the baby. Will the rising price of oil after the games wrecking the market raise or lower the NZO share price?. Macdunk [trying to keep you honest]

[dsurf]

MacD - keep on posting. I like the humour and it would be very boring if we all had the same opinion.

If oil was $200 then NZO would make approx $2m a day revenue & $1m in profit (I am assuming an upgrade & Kupe proceeding to plan). So if NZO SP fell then there would be more cash than the SP. Not assets, but cash, so it could not fall too far.

It would rise very very strongly - look at sentiment towards NZO when oil rushed up $149 - everyone loved it! They would love it even more at $200

[Nitaa]

Just out of interest lets have a few opinions on the following question.
If the market crashes simply because the price of oil hits $200 a barrel will the share price of NZO trend up with increased profits or trend down with market sentiment.

I say the share price would follow the market down ignoring company fundamentals.
If i am right and the market crashes because of the price of oil what happens next?.
No personal attacks please just an honest opinion. Macdunk
Subjective but here is my view. Oil climbs to $200 within 12 months nzo will be well north of $2.50 this time next year even if the market crashes (again subjective and what is a crash). I would argue that Chinas stock market has already crashed

Biggest influnce in overall global markets is the credit crunch.

[arjay]

Just out of interest lets have a few opinions on the following question.
If the market crashes simply because the price of oil hits $200 a barrel will the share price of NZO trend up with increased profits or trend down with market sentiment.

I say the share price would follow the market down ignoring company fundamentals.
If i am right and the market crashes because of the price of oil what happens next?.
No personal attacks please just an honest opinion. Macdunk


If the NZO SP tanks because of a crashing market, but oil is above $200/ barrel, the best thing NZO could do is to buy the idiots out on the cheap and go private.

[Chalice]

Just out of interest lets have a few opinions on the following question.
If the market crashes simply because the price of oil hits $200 a barrel will the share price of NZO trend up with increased profits or trend down with market sentiment.

I say the share price would follow the market down ignoring company fundamentals.
If i am right and the market crashes because of the price of oil what happens next?.
No personal attacks please just an honest opinion. Macdunk

McD,

If the market crashes due to a oil Spike to $200 NZO will follow it down in the very short term but recover.
If the slope to $200 is a very slow and steady one, allowing companies to plan and react & its based mainly on supply/demand factors and the market finally crashes as non-oil/energy take a beating I think NZO will perform outstandlingly.

What happens next? A new set of market darlings which are energy based, both new and existing sources, R&D & food + land.

But that supposes the crash is not part of a worldwide economic meltdown reflecting the market crash which would errode oil demand & therefore prices.

I am of the opinion we may enter a period of oil price spikes, economic decline, demand errosion, price fall, economic recovery, price spike etc until there is a fundamental and permanent change i.e. peak oil irrefutably evident and permanent and/or the world economy learns to live with high prices.

Whatever happens I think NZO is a must have stock in any portfolio!,

[Casa del Energia]

Just out of interest lets have a few opinions on the following question.
If the market crashes simply because the price of oil hits $200 a barrel will the share price of NZO trend up with increased profits or trend down with market sentiment.

I say the share price would follow the market down ignoring company fundamentals.
If i am right and the market crashes because of the price of oil what happens next?.
No personal attacks please just an honest opinion. Macdunk



Can't say fairer than that! - My oar in the water:

Oil hits $200. Global slowdown, Equities sensitive to oil hit hard, Banks, Tech will be neutral. Minerals hit but coal and oil producers do well.
My crystal ball says big trouble all round but the oil companies will go against the market.

(Why?) - example - the markets were knocked sideways earlier this year, lots of uncertainty so money goes into gold - the gold miners did well - - quod erat demonstrandum, the same effect with NZO.

[Nitaa]

McD,

If the market crashes due to a oil Spike to $200 NZO will follow it down in the very short term but recover.
If the slope to $200 is a very slow and steady one, allowing companies to plan and react & its based mainly on supply/demand factors and the market finally crashes as non-oil/energy take a beating I think NZO will perform outstandlingly.

What happens next? A new set of market darlings which are energy based, both new and existing sources, R&D & food + land.

But that supposes the crash is not part of a worldwide economic meltdown reflecting the market crash which would errode oil demand & therefore prices.

I am of the opinion we may enter a period of oil price spikes, economic decline, demand errosion, price fall, economic recovery, price spike etc until there is a fundamental and permanent change i.e. peak oil irrefutably evident and permanent and/or the world economy learns to live with high prices.

Whatever happens I think NZO is a must have stock in any portfolio!,Excellent post. There are many variations and permentations and its not just as simple as what if...

md. this is a very good post and a good way to look at it is 1 + 1 doesnt always = 2. Just ask your accountant

[neopole]

some folks seem to forget that 1/2 the companys Market Capitalisation is pure cash,
and the mechinisms for producing that cash is in full swing and is about to increase pace.
market sentiment is for traders and punters, and there favourite game is to scare monger the investors so they can get the cash.
otherwise........ why would traders or large corperate buyers be buying the million plus shares available every day?
all whats happening here is an exchange of wealth from the novice to the experienced.

and as NZO is NZs first premier public oil stock..... many moms and dads are getting lost in the real picture of what is happening.
cash is king......... and nzo is racking it in..............
market sentiment is just the name of a game for the big boys.

[Crypto Crude]

Hummm yeah...
So true Neopole...
we just got to hope that NZO doubles up so that IF anything happens then you are just returning a small part of the profits to the market... rather than the other way...

buy low-> sell high...
or buy low -> give abit back to the market-> and still sell high...haha

Mackdunk,
I wont debate what that stock was or was not...
think about the other things I said...
Your talents need to be put to good use...
your talents are wasted if you go on like that...
your not even in the markets, and you come across as if your headed for a nervous breakdown... Chill out... we want to see you in Nov...:p
A famous legend (not you this time im sorry) once told me that you can make positives out of every situation.... try and turn it into a positive...(check my example at the top of the post)....
I wont say another word...
We will talk about it further in November when you come to the National meeting...A new thread will pop up over the next few weeks/month so check it out for more details...
Im out, catch you all around...
yeahhh harrghh.... riding cowboys...
:)
.^sc

[Corporate]

Still getting huge money for Tui oil! Look at the last two weeks. Tapis down, price per barrel in NZD up!

[Sideshow Bob]

Subsequent to my comments yesterday, ABN Amro have released updated research. NZO's website has been updated to incorporate this research, and refers to an upwardly revised valuation of $2.37 (previously $2.27). A couple of additional comments that may be of interest are:

"We believe NZO has been oversold recently.

Our downside case using US$38/bbl and PRC at market produces a valuation of NZ$1.73.
The Tui valuation, cash and tax loss components total NZ$1.45, higher than the current market price of NZ$1.42, effectively providing today's investors with NZO's Kupe and PRC investments for free.

We have valued NZO on current 2P reserves extraction from its investments, although we continue to believe NZO is well positioned to provide upside from successful exploration and development activity, and increases in reserves. We continue to believe NZO represents an excellent opportunity for investors seeking upside to value despite the recent softening of global oil prices."

Peter,


Two excellent posts in two days - my thanks.

It is worrying however where sharebrokers have upped their valuation.........


SSB

[fish]

Peter,


Two excellent posts in two days - my thanks.

It is worrying however where sharebrokers have upped their valuation.........


SSB

I am not sure what you are worried about
all sharebrokers predictions I have ever seen have undervalued the current return on tui -production is higher than predicted and oil price in nz dollars is higher than predicted.
In worse case scenarios I value nzo above current sp . The most likely scenario double and the best case multiples

[friedegg]

i would be keen to have a sample of the oil and a small piece of the coal to put on my wardrobe,is this possible for you to organise this for people who may be interested in having something to show people

[Casa del Energia]

The writing is still on the wall. Nat. Radio interview with an ex oil engineer tonight..

Upshot - no new big discoveries since 1964.

(I didn't know that).

[Lion]

Upshot - no new big discoveries since 1964.



Not quite true . . . quote from Wikipedia . . .

Cantarell Field or Cantarell Complex is the largest oil field (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_field) in Mexico (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexico) and one of the largest in the world. It was discovered in 1976 by a fisherman, Rudesindo Cantarell. In November 2006 Pemex (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pemex) reported that Cantarell has produced 11,492 million barrels (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barrel_%28unit%29) of oil

[Lion]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cantarell_Field The field produced up to 2 million barrels a day, second only to Ghawar, but despite huge injection of nitrogen gas, production has peaked (red rag word to you, McD??) and is now in steep decline.

I'm in the peak oil camp - it just has to be, wait and see.

[Chalice]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cantarell_Field The field produced up to 2 million barrels a day, second only to Ghawar, but despite huge injection of nitrogen gas, production has peaked (red rag word to you, McD??) and is now in steep decline.

I'm in the peak oil camp - it just has to be, wait and see.

Brazil has discovered a large field recently but the most important fact is that since the 1980's, the world has discovered less oil than it has consumed every year.

[Rif-Raf]

Not quite true . . . quote from Wikipedia . . .

Cantarell Field or Cantarell Complex is the largest oil field (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_field) in Mexico (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexico) and one of the largest in the world. It was discovered in 1976 by a fisherman, Rudesindo Cantarell. In November 2006 Pemex (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pemex) reported that Cantarell has produced 11,492 million barrels (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barrel_%28unit%29) of oil
Discovered by a fisherman...brings back distant memories of the classic Beverly Hillbillies TV show when Jed Clampert fires his rifle, the bullet hits the ground and up bursts a gusher,oil that is...black gold.

[Sideshow Bob]

I am not sure what you are worried about
all sharebrokers predictions I have ever seen have undervalued the current return on tui -production is higher than predicted and oil price in nz dollars is higher than predicted.
In worse case scenarios I value nzo above current sp . The most likely scenario double and the best case multiples

Sorry Fish, I was being ever so slightly facesous (sp)!! It was more that broker valuations in my experience are almost always the kiss of death............

[fish]

strong recommendation from Warren Head this morning on tv3-pointed out his calculations on nzo income is up-falling exchange rate has more than compensated for drop in oil price .
His favorite stock !


Not that all this info hasnt been available on this thread .
Hopefully will encourage more to buy and make those selling at such a deep discount reconsider .

It seems to me that many cannot get their head beyond the falling oil price . This is more of a plus to nzo at this stage ( if you are looking to buy in ).

Later ,when china restarts mass imports oil we will see poo doing well

[Dr_Who]

I am not sure what you are worried about
all sharebrokers predictions I have ever seen have undervalued the current return on tui -production is higher than predicted and oil price in nz dollars is higher than predicted.
In worse case scenarios I value nzo above current sp . The most likely scenario double and the best case multiples

Have you seen the returns for the sharebrokers top 5 picks for this year? They are all in the negatives.. LOL

If the brokers have a buy on NZO, must be time to sell. LOL


...and Maddunks theory that China will stuff up the US economy by hiking up oil is total BS. China and the US are inter-related. They both have huge investments in each other's economy. It is in the best interest of both parties to see that their investments do well.

[duncan macgregor]

I take it the good doctor has returned back from the future with his prediction. The easy way for China to be number one is take America out by wrecking its economy. The way to do that is control resources by buying companies up, or doing deals as they are doing at the moment. The price of oil will reach $200 a barrel next year DOC what do you say about that?. What happens to the NZO share price then in a crashing market?.
Will NZO be the shining light in the market with all its profits or will it downtrend. Macdunk

[Chalice]

Have you seen the returns for the sharebrokers top 5 picks for this year? They are all in the negatives.. LOL

If the brokers have a buy on NZO, must be time to sell. LOL


...and Maddunks theory that China will stuff up the US economy by hiking up oil is total BS. China and the US are inter-related. They both have huge investments in each other's economy. It is in the best interest of both parties to see that their investments do well.

I have a feeling that since the decks were cleared earlier in the week we may just see the SP move up over the coming weeks.

Absolute total nonsense China will try to wreck America.

[Dr_Who]

I take it the good doctor has returned back from the future with his prediction. The easy way for China to be number one is take America out by wrecking its economy. The way to do that is control resources by buying companies up, or doing deals as they are doing at the moment. The price of oil will reach $200 a barrel next year DOC what do you say about that?. What happens to the NZO share price then in a crashing market?.
Will NZO be the shining light in the market with all its profits or will it downtrend. Macdunk

Na mate. This conspiracy theory of China wanting to destroy America is just pure fantasy. China needs US funds and US consumers. Why would you want to kill off your best customers that buys over 30% off your goods and funds your capital expansion? Also, China has invested large amount of funds in the US by buying their debt and the Chinese Yuan is pegged to the $US. It is in the best interest for both China and US to see a mutual and beneficial relationship.

I agree and can see oil moving up again once it bottoms and we should get used to living with high oil prices. Human being are quite flexible and will get used to high oil prices. We will (in the long term) develop alternatives and learn to live with substitutes. The world wont end and we will still live on the way we've always had.

[dsurf]

I take it the good doctor has returned back from the future with his prediction. The easy way for China to be number one is take America out by wrecking its economy. The way to do that is control resources by buying companies up, or doing deals as they are doing at the moment. The price of oil will reach $200 a barrel next year DOC what do you say about that?. What happens to the NZO share price then in a crashing market?.
Will NZO be the shining light in the market with all its profits or will it downtrend. Macdunk

macd - you are suggesting that if revenues increase strongly with US200 then NZO will fall.

If revenues are static US115 then the SP will fall also

If revenues fall poo below current then the SP will fall

Can you tell me a scenario in which you see the SP rising?

[Nitaa]

I think most posters are onto it. What we have known for a long time, brokers reporters are now saying wow. what a cash cow nzo is. my guess is once the full year report comes out then this could springboard the sp somewhat. I guess some people just need to see it in black and white.

Risk. For highly geared nzo investors they could se themselves in the same position as post nzooc conversion. sentiments or negative news for the company will put presue on the sp and then the margin calls get called. this is likely to cause a domino effect and spit out a lot of the faithful. If you are not leveraged then this stock as reporters and brokers start to realise is great value for money.

some basic principles i like to adhere to. dont get into hoc to buy shares and apply a worst case scenario and then decide, is this stock for me

[Corporate]

I think most posters are onto it. What we have known for a long time, brokers reporters are now saying wow. what a cash cow nzo is. my guess is once the full year report comes out then this could springboard the sp somewhat. I guess some people just need to see it in black and white.

Risk. For highly geared nzo investors they could se themselves in the same position as post nzooc conversion. sentiments or negative news for the company will put presue on the sp and then the margin calls get called. this is likely to cause a domino effect and spit out a lot of the faithful. If you are not leveraged then this stock as reporters and brokers start to realise is great value for money.

some basic principles i like to adhere to. dont get into hoc to buy shares and apply a worst case scenario and then decide, is this stock for me


Exactly - I think a fair few people have been spat out on margin already.

[fish]

Exactly - I think a fair few people have been spat out on margin already.
I dont know haw many times I have to tell people to get the message through .
Margin trading is a way of borrowing using your shares as security .
The only way you can get spat out by a margin call is if you only have one stock ,nothing else to sell ,no other way of raising money etc .
I probably have borrowed more than anyone using margin trading to buy nzo . It is just about impossible for me to be spat out-the sp would have to be well under a dollar to get a margin call and then i would probably sell some of my cue,cen tel ,tpw ,fletcher notes infratil notes etc .
I would imagine the same applies for all asb clients-they really make sure you are a good borrower-probably one of the reasons it is making bumper profits

[Chalice]

Exactly - I think a fair few people have been spat out on margin already.

I would imagine the vast majority have been spat given the volume traded on Wednesday.

SP has gone from 142, which would have exposed those on the edge (after low 150's took out those totally overexposed) to circa +10 cents more in 1 1/2 days.

The only risk I see of margin calls dragging NZO down again is if there is the famous McD crash and calls are made on people's leveraged portfolio as a whole - rather than NZO.

Its the main reason I see SP on the up and up over the next few weeks.

[peterfindlay]

A PDF that contains the full text of the McDouall Stuart valuation dated 1 August 2008 is now available on the NZOG website.

[duncan macgregor]

macd - you are suggesting that if revenues increase strongly with US200 then NZO will fall.

If revenues are static US115 then the SP will fall also

If revenues fall poo below current then the SP will fall

Can you tell me a scenario in which you see the SP rising? dSURF I think it has more to do with market sentiment than straight out revenues. If the market in general reverses the trend and trends up NZO will trend higher than most. If the market continues to trend down NZO will swim against the falling tide better than most. I think if the market crashes the money that NZO have in the bank would buy the company back with plenty left over.
1, market crashes oil $200 a barrel NZO SP will go much lower.
2,Market trends up oil $100 a barrel NZO sp will go much higher.
The market is an irrational force, that is driven by sometimes situations that should have nothing at all to do with anything.
Why on earth did the sp go so high, to drop back so low, in such a short time, other than greed and fear driving the sp. The greed and fear comes from the punters who borrow to buy more than they can afford, driving the share price to far in both directions. I study market sentiment and the likely causes that drive it, rather than get bogged down working out PE ratios which in the extreme market count for very little.
Last year it was nickel in a rising market. This year it is oil in a falling market making it much more difficult to predict. Macdunk

[Nitaa]

I dont know haw many times I have to tell people to get the message through .
Margin trading is a way of borrowing using your shares as security .
The only way you can get spat out by a margin call is if you only have one stock ,nothing else to sell ,no other way of raising money etc .
I probably have borrowed more than anyone using margin trading to buy nzo . It is just about impossible for me to be spat out-the sp would have to be well under a dollar to get a margin call and then i would probably sell some of my cue,cen tel ,tpw ,fletcher notes infratil notes etc .

I would imagine the same applies for all asb clients-they really make sure you are a good borrower-probably one of the reasons it is making bumper profitsYou are righ to a degree. The problem is that many will use nzo as security and not other stocks. Investors/punters do do like to be told or be forced to sell any stock, good performing or non performing. Another point is many who use margin calls are highly leveraged so therefore there option can be extremely limited.

I have seen it happen post nzooc and i believe we have seen a little bit post nzood. Remember that many option holders didnt want to be forced to sell their options at undervalued prices compared to the sp. Therefore many would have used all types of credit facilities (perhaps even credit cards) to fund their conversion.

[Chalice]

dSURF I think it has more to do with market sentiment than straight out revenues. If the market in general reverses the trend and trends up NZO will trend higher than most. If the market continues to trend down NZO will swim against the falling tide better than most. I think if the market crashes the money that NZO have in the bank would buy the company back with plenty left over.
1, market crashes oil $200 a barrel NZO SP will go much lower.
2,Market trends up oil $100 a barrel NZO sp will go much higher.
The market is an irrational force, that is driven by sometimes situations that should have nothing at all to do with anything.
Why on earth did the sp go so high, to drop back so low, in such a short time, other than greed and fear driving the sp. The greed and fear comes from the punters who borrow to buy more than they can afford, driving the share price to far in both directions. I study market sentiment and the likely causes that drive it, rather than get bogged down working out PE ratios which in the extreme market count for very little.
Last year it was nickel in a rising market. This year it is oil in a falling market making it much more difficult to predict. Macdunk

Succinctly summarised postition - presume you mean "much higher/much lower" from base point - be it $1.50 or $3.00?

Market: June -> July DOWN circa 20% (almost a crash...???)
NZO SP: June -> July UP circa 20%

Market: July -> August UP circa 13%
NZO SP: July -> August DOWN circa 16%

Oil Price: June -> July UP circa 20%
Oil Price: July -> August DOWN circa 20%

All time oil high & NZO SP high very close.
Lowest oil price in circa 3+ months close to NZO SP of 1.42.

Irrational, sentiment, market or linked to oil price???

[dsurf]

Succinctly summarised postition - presume you mean "much higher/much lower" from base point - be it $1.50 or $3.00?

Market: June -> July DOWN circa 20% (almost a crash...???)
NZO SP: June -> July UP circa 20%

Market: July -> August UP circa 13%
NZO SP: July -> August DOWN circa 16%

Oil Price: June -> July UP circa 20%
Oil Price: July -> August DOWN circa 20%

cheers chalice - macd I agree sentiment rules far more than FA or TA. But as Chalice has pointed out it was sentiment related to oil going higher which meant caash in consumers pockets, increased costs for business etc that drove the market down. Sentiment for NZO was strong. I personally would love to see $US200 poo as I would be owning a $2 to $3 stock.

[Mick100]

I dont know haw many times I have to tell people to get the message through .
Margin trading is a way of borrowing using your shares as security .
The only way you can get spat out by a margin call is if you only have one stock ,nothing else to sell ,no other way of raising money etc .
I probably have borrowed more than anyone using margin trading to buy nzo . It is just about impossible for me to be spat out-the sp would have to be well under a dollar to get a margin call and then i would probably sell some of my cue,cen tel ,tpw ,fletcher notes infratil notes etc .
I would imagine the same applies for all asb clients-they really make sure you are a good borrower-probably one of the reasons it is making bumper profits

Fish , from reading the comments made about margin lending on this thread, it's obvious that none of these people have ever used margin. I assume that most people, like myself, would be proactive in managing their margin accounts (ie, they wouldn't wait for a margin call before they get their situation soughted out) As you have pointed out - you don't have to sell the shares that you have borrowed against - you can sell anything in your account - it actually makes more sense to sell shares which arn't on margin at all, that way you don't reduce your borrowing capacity when you sell.
Other options are to put additional cash in your account
or sell shares which you can't borrow against and buy shares that you can borrow against, that way boosting your borrowing limit

[fish]

A PDF that contains the full text of the McDouall Stuart valuation dated 1 August 2008 is now available on the NZOG website.

I like the 10.9 cent dividend for this year -ending 2009
and the 15cent dividend for the following year

[Casa del Energia]

Not quite true . . . quote from Wikipedia . . .

Cantarell Field or Cantarell Complex is the largest oil field (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_field) in Mexico (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexico) and one of the largest in the world. It was discovered in 1976 by a fisherman, Rudesindo Cantarell. In November 2006 Pemex (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pemex) reported that Cantarell has produced 11,492 million barrels (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barrel_%28unit%29) of oil

Whoops - Looks like I'm peddling dud information again. Thanks for the correction. Important to have a straight story.

[neopole]

dSURF I think it has more to do with market sentiment than straight out revenues. If the market in general reverses the trend and trends up NZO will trend higher than most. If the market continues to trend down NZO will swim against the falling tide better than most. I think if the market crashes the money that NZO have in the bank would buy the company back with plenty left over.
1, market crashes oil $200 a barrel NZO SP will go much lower.
2,Market trends up oil $100 a barrel NZO sp will go much higher.
The market is an irrational force, that is driven by sometimes situations that should have nothing at all to do with anything.
Why on earth did the sp go so high, to drop back so low, in such a short time, other than greed and fear driving the sp. The greed and fear comes from the punters who borrow to buy more than they can afford, driving the share price to far in both directions. I study market sentiment and the likely causes that drive it, rather than get bogged down working out PE ratios which in the extreme market count for very little.
Last year it was nickel in a rising market. This year it is oil in a falling market making it much more difficult to predict. Macdunk

well said MD, i agree and enjoyed reading this post..... not often i can say that.
but this line.......""1, market crashes oil $200 a barrel NZO SP will go much lower.""
i cant agree with, mainly because kupe will be on/or near stream, and the gas is going to a powerstation for NZ electricity production, and that has nothing to do with TA, FA or market sentiment, as the country needs its light bulbs on, and pike will be adding to the income stream also.
IMHO, NZO has its bases covered.

[Nitaa]

I slight drop in oil prices is more than offset by the drop in the kiwi $. Great news for revenue.

[bbob]

TUI 1.6 mill barrels 1st July to 14th Aug ~ 35000 b/d. Bad weather has to some degree impacted on production but probably production dropping off. Still so much better than predicted.

Would be interesting to know the status and impact of the FPSO work.

[fish]

[QUOTE=bbob;218541]TUI 1.6 mill barrels 1st July to 14th Aug ~ 35000 b/d. Bad weather has to some degree impacted on production but probably production dropping off. Still so much better than predicted.

Fantastic production-200000 barrels for nzo-another 30 million in bank-must be over $300million now and the cash will keep rolling in .


NZO must be a prime takeover target .
It would be a wise move if management started a buy back or paid a dividend to raise the sp .
Annual report due less than 2 weeks .

[Corporate]

Fantastic production-200000 barrels for nzo-another 30 million in bank-must be over $300million now and the cash will keep rolling in .



Yeah they are creaming it - cash will be about $290m at this stage.

Since year end I put revenue at about $36 Million (10cps) after only 46 days.

[Hoop]

Recent takeover talk by posters, highlights a part of investor's discipline that is largely ignored or forgotten about nowadays...that is, observing the signals a company emits persuading that skilled investor to pre-empt the market (ignoring TA downtrends and possibly bad FA) and prematurely buying in to take advantage of a possible short/medium term future T/O reaction.

The early signals to watch for are
1 The shareholding register becoming public knowledge
2 Minor shareholders becoming publicly active with certain issues
3 Company's financial affairs becoming public, a public call for the books to be looked into
4 Some sort of stupid issue being raised and blown out of proportion
5 This relates to the previous 1 to 4.. The company management is barraged with all sorts of negative comments and the media can be used as a weapon, via media propaganda.
6 The frequency of takeovers rising within the same market sector that the company operates in.
7 Unusual changes in the stocks buy/sell patterns (under the radar)



Pre -Defence to a takeover, signals
It is important for an investor to ID these activities within the company to confirm one's belief that something is brewing
1 Investor suddenly sees other Investor names changing from individuals to Nominee holdings within the Company Register or some other hard to track down entity.
2 All outstanding debts get paid of ahead of time, or a company in financial trouble some sort of consolidation with a friendly.
3 Subsidiary companies activity, releasing extra shares and cross sharing deals
4 Poison Pills .. Sudden announcement of Bonus shares or rights issue issued or exercised to shareholders at a precise moment in time in the future or some other share issue type mechanism below market price.
5 Shark repellents... This could be various activities e.g sudden change of corporate goals or activity..a call to amend the company's Constitution or a change to "control" clauses..golden parachute clause added, restricted voting voting rights.super-majority clause...etc
6 A White Knight suddenly appears (usually occurs after the T/O attempt has been announced but not always) or a "merger" with a friendly company with cross share holdings and expensive break up fees.
7 Company announces a buy back program.
8 Spin off a fast growing subsidiary to reduce the company's attractiveness.

There's probably a few others that I haven't mentioned ..but I think you get the idea ..

Disc PPP + 90% cash

[Nitaa]

Adding to the las post, dont leave out TR as part of the equation should something devlop sooner or later. He will look after No1 where he can

[duncan macgregor]

The share price at $1-45 is much lower than i would have expected at this time. I would have thought resistance at $1-50 would have been the bottom. Greed and fear is the controling factor in this company, with the greed of borrowing to buy what they could not afford, raising the share price to over optimistic levels. The fear has now taken over, pushing the price down to lower than expected levels.
The only winners are the traders with the long term holders staring at a share price not that much different to its high four years ago. I think that borrowing to buy is a bad thing for the market in general, sending out bad signals to potential new investors. I now expect the sp to track sideways for a time, then follow the market down when it crashes. Macdunk

[Nitaa]

The share price at $1-45 is much lower than i would have expected at this time. I would have thought resistance at $1-50 would have been the bottom. Greed and fear is the controling factor in this company, with the greed of borrowing to buy what they could not afford, raising the share price to over optimistic levels. The fear has now taken over, pushing the price down to lower than expected levels.
The only winners are the traders with the long term holders staring at a share price not that much different to its high four years ago. I think that borrowing to buy is a bad thing for the market in general, sending out bad signals to potential new investors. I now expect the sp to track sideways for a time, then follow the market down when it crashes. Macdunkmd. The market is irrational. What the price is and what it should be in your eyes will often be 2 different things.

Personally i think the real winners are the long term holders. The ones who stayed in whilst all thje scepticism and other news pushed the sp down only to continue a long up trend.

What is important for a longer term holder is not the the price is now but the price is when they sell. therefore the various short terms ups and downs are largely irrelevant.

I do agree on one of your points and that its bad (or at best risky) to borrow to invest. However i see no problem if someone tapped into their home load facility to use 100k when they have well over $1m in equity. So its not always clear cut but in principle i agree with your comment.

I reiterate, one cannot ignore the fundamentals. right now there hasnt been much changed in the last 6 months from nzo's perspective.

discl. hold

[arjay]

The winners have also BEEN the long-term holders Nita. For many of us selling the free options and collecting the first dividend will have more-or-less paid of the capital cost of our head shares. Now having the SP drop from around 5x to 4x what we paid for those shares is not a big issue.

[duncan macgregor]

The winners have also BEEN the long-term holders Nita. For many of us selling the free options and collecting the first dividend will have more-or-less paid of the capital cost of our head shares. Now having the SP drop from around 5x to 4x what we paid for those shares is not a big issue. The winners were the ones selling the options not converting. Second best were the ones that converted and were smart enough to have a stop loss on the heads. Over the years this has been a share where a stop loss and a buy signal at the other end would have saved you heaps.
Thats all water under the bridge, what counts is today going forward. The market in general is downtrending leading to a crash in my opinion, so i expect NZO to go side ways then follow the market down. Market sentiment is the reason the sp is so low the fundamentals wont hold the price up even if as i expect oil reaches $200 a barrel in 2009 and crashes the market. Macdunk

[Nitaa]

The winners have also BEEN the long-term holders Nita. For many of us selling the free options and collecting the first dividend will have more-or-less paid of the capital cost of our head shares. Now having the SP drop from around 5x to 4x what we paid for those shares is not a big issue.arjay. 100% correct. Actually that is what i mean. Sorry for misleading.

[Chalice]

The share price at $1-45 is much lower than i would have expected at this time. I would have thought resistance at $1-50 would have been the bottom. Greed and fear is the controling factor in this company, with the greed of borrowing to buy what they could not afford, raising the share price to over optimistic levels. The fear has now taken over, pushing the price down to lower than expected levels.
The only winners are the traders with the long term holders staring at a share price not that much different to its high four years ago. I think that borrowing to buy is a bad thing for the market in general, sending out bad signals to potential new investors. I now expect the sp to track sideways for a time, then follow the market down when it crashes. Macdunk

Whilst its always nice to see a constantly uptrending sharerpice for any share investment short or long term & I agree below $1.50 does few any good, leveraged or not - we live in interesting times, especially for Oilers - for the reasons you and other have indicated in many posts.

If you are a non leveraged long term holder, who cares?

Apart from a dented ego, I cannot see any downside to NZO SP LT.

I do acknowledge the benefit of borrowing to invest, and whilst it may/may not be having a detrimental effect on NZO SP at the moment I think it is a great mechanism - what % of businesses, property etc are purchased with 100% cash?

I think that evidence of people being willing to borrow indicates faith in a company, which is positive, (warranted or not) - but I think the basic fundamentals of NZO equate to unarguable faith LT.

If some investors have over done it so be it - can't think of another investment vehicle where this doesn't occur from time to time, and best of luck to those in a position to take advantage!

BTW - Mc D No comment on my post #6162???

[dsurf]

Two of my favourite sentiment based contrarian indicators and one upcoming "event"are indicating a possible bottom at this price.

1/ Macd is gloating & reminding LT shareholders that this was around the peak 4 years ago. Obviously the four years ago resistance is now fantastic support! Also saying that the SP will fall " even though undervalued" due to fear etc. Therefore due a rebound

2/ Very few posted on this thread - must have been a rough week - capitulation?

3/ Event = buying on expectation of a rise pre announcement on; broker advice, traders getting ready etc

[Mr Tommy]

Big jump in oil today.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/4665182a13.html

Interesting comment in there ...

Dealers were also eyeing the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Saudi Arabia, its top producer, for signs they may decide to trim supply. Opec meets on September 9 to review output policy. "As prices drop, Saudi Arabia may cut back on its recent increase in production, which could halt the most recent price decline," the US Energy Information Administration said in its weekly review of the market.

[Bilo]

AWE share price staging a recovery on gob stopping results announced today, with Tui's star turn.:)
kiwi pessimists to the fore on NZO as usual despite oil looking likely to break 110 to 120 trading range with the slightest provocation.:rolleyes:

[Casa del Energia]

Two of my favourite sentiment based contrarian indicators and one upcoming "event"are indicating a possible bottom at this price.

1/ Macd is gloating & reminding LT shareholders that this was around the peak 4 years ago. Obviously the four years ago resistance is now fantastic support! Also saying that the SP will fall " even though undervalued" due to fear etc. Therefore due a rebound

2/ Very few posted on this thread - must have been a rough week - capitulation?

3/ Event = buying on expectation of a rise pre announcement on; broker advice, traders getting ready etc



2/ Very few posted on this thread - must have been a rough week - capitulation?
- Me personally - It has been the dreaded lurgie - knocked out flat for a week with a cold from the other side of hell. From what I can tell 50% of staff in some businesses around town have had the same problem as me - so maybe not a lot of people on deck.

But primarily - not much to say.. oil not moving much, No news from the wellhead, PRC still digging the same hole as a month ago, Kupe still building base facilities. And the sp dithers around sideways. All ho hum.

The only excitement seems to be responses to McDunks posts. Keep it up, we'll die of boredom otherwise.

[Casa del Energia]

AWE share price staging a recovery on gob stopping results announced today, with Tui's star turn.:)
kiwi pessimists to the fore on NZO as usual despite oil looking likely to break 110 to 120 trading range with the slightest provocation.:rolleyes:

Maybe things will get cracking again.

[bermuda]

Maybe things will get cracking again.

NZO will be plus 170 this time next week. ( My Birthday ! )

[Corporate]

NZO will be plus 170 this time next week. ( My Birthday ! )


Haha bermuda, basis for this?

[Phaedrus]

NZO had good support at +/- $1.52. Now that that has been broken, it would not be unreasonable to expect some resistance at that level.
Then there is the matter of previous resistance at around $1.66 to be overcome.
$1.70 by next week seems optimistic - I hope you are getting something else for your birthday Bermuda! You could get lucky I suppose - at $1.50 currently, NZO is at least heading in the right direction.

[duncan macgregor]

Haha bermuda, basis for this? Bermuda is almost right but his timing is wrong. The price of oil will skyrocket in a few weeks time. PRC will hit that coal seam at about that time so i expect Bermuda will be a bit to early with his timing. The rise in NZO sp will be short lived as it will follow the market down into recession. Hows that for a prediction guys thats how i see it panning out glad to be out the market looking at all you brave punters trying to make an honest quid. Macdunk

[bermuda]

NZO will be plus 170 this time next week. ( My Birthday ! )

Have a look at AWE this morning. Up 15% when I made the above post. Terrific profit news which is what is going to hit the NZX for NZO next Friday. That equates to about 22.5 cents extra to NZO. i.e. $1.72.5. And NZO is more specifically tied to Tui than AWE in the whole context.

Sooner or later NZO flies. It is only the marginally stretched and tall poppy loppers that are keeping it down.

And we still have Kupe and Pike ready to add BIG revenues.

So not too hard to see where NZO goes after the AWE result. Elementary my dear Watson.

[arjay]

Right on Bermuda,

With AWE touting Tieke as an oil field and Phase-III development of the Tui area under way there is a clearly a lot of upside about to be reported by NZO. I'm a bit concerned at AWE's choice of symbols though - slide 8 reports that on some days the Tui field produces 40,000 barrels whiel on others it sucks it back down again.

[Hoop]

Have a look at AWE this morning. Up 15% when I made the above post. Terrific profit news which is what is going to hit the NZX for NZO next Friday. That equates to about 22.5 cents extra to NZO. i.e. $1.72.5. And NZO is more specifically tied to Tui than AWE in the whole context.

Sooner or later NZO flies. It is only the marginally stretched and tall poppy loppers that are keeping it down.

And we still have Kupe and Pike ready to add BIG revenues.

So not too hard to see where NZO goes after the AWE result. Elementary my dear Watson.

Awe earnings 58cent a share profit after tax:)..and nothing for its suffering shareholders who have seen a 33% drop in their shares in the last 2 months including todays 7.7% rise. The miserable sods:(.

NZO and PPP dividends??? Don't hold your breath after seeing what AWE has done.

[boysy]

Though hoop the difference is ppp doesnt have any other financial commitments ( apart from maitland which it has 10 % ) and NZO only has Kupe and pike i mean they cant spend money on drills if they cant get the drills in the first place. AWE has many projects it has to sink money into and both PPP and NZO have a higher leverage from TUI compared to market cap than AWE. Hence both could be in a position not only where they can afford a dividend but have limited financial comitments and hence can reasonably be expected to pay a dividend.

[Bilo]

Awe earnings 58cent a share profit after tax:)..and nothing for its suffering shareholders who have seen a 33% drop in their shares in the last 2 months including todays 7.7% rise. The miserable sods:(.

NZO and PPP dividends??? Don't hold your breath after seeing what AWE has done.

I agree they really haven't served small investors - well they did serve it to them really:(.

AWE has aspirations to grandeur and expectations from institutional shareholders to continue its incredible growth rate. The ASX oiler scene is all about trading for profit and institutional placements.

NZO should and I expect does have a much more NZ stakeholder friendly and conservative position. The NZ tax situation is very different - expect NZO to be payinf lots less than PPP or AWE.:) I expect another dividend.

[shasta]

Awe earnings 58cent a share profit after tax:)..and nothing for its suffering shareholders who have seen a 33% drop in their shares in the last 2 months including todays 7.7% rise. The miserable sods:(.

NZO and PPP dividends??? Don't hold your breath after seeing what AWE has done.

Hoop

Even though i'm looking again at NZO, i'm keeping AWE on close watch.

AWE have plenty of cash & no debt (some $A300m+), but seems a bit distracted with the ARQ merger...

I've always thought since STO was to have there 15% ownership cap lifted, that companies such as AWE (& to some extent NZO), need to grow by acquistion or risk getting swallowed themselves...

For what ever reason (& i'm not sure why) ARQ, NXS & ROC have all had a crack at AZA?

These deals seem to constantly hit a snag, maybe AWE is being careful here?

Would you rather get say a 10 -15c dividend from AWE now (ex Tui cashflows) or see the SP recovery back to a more reasonable P/E ratio?

NZO are doing a good job, & being prudent is this market isn't a silly idea either.

[bermuda]

Hoop

Even though i'm looking again at NZO, i'm keeping AWE on close watch.

AWE have plenty of cash & no debt (some $A300m+), but seems a bit distracted with the ARQ merger...

I've always thought since STO was to have there 15% ownership cap lifted, that companies such as AWE (& to some extent NZO), need to grow by acquistion or risk getting swallowed themselves...

For what ever reason (& i'm not sure why) ARQ, NXS & ROC have all had a crack at AZA?

These deals seem to constantly hit a snag, maybe AWE is being careful here?

Would you rather get say a 10 -15c dividend from AWE now (ex Tui cashflows) or see the SP recovery back to a more reasonable P/E ratio?

NZO are doing a good job, & being prudent is this market isn't a silly idea either.

These guys are a licence to print money. I made a post about 3 years ago after I had had a chat to Bruce Phillips. A licence to print money. They would be so cash rich they would have to have a look at buybacks. And that was before these huge oil price increses and Tui upgrades etc etc.

I thought today I should have got some. Sorry, should be on the AWE thread. But anyway the NZO result next week is going to shake the market up.

[arjay]

Shasta,
I'd say go for the dividend now because the SP is not reflecting the company's true worth anyway so an extra 20 million in the bank for NZO will not automatically register in its SP. However as we have seen, if you take 20 million out and distribute it as a dividend the SP doesn't go down either. So, if the market is going to keep going sideways (or follow the general market downwards as MD says) I say dish out some cash.

[shasta]

Shasta,
I'd say go for the dividend now because the SP is not reflecting the company's true worth anyway so an extra 20 million in the bank for NZO will not automatically register in its SP. However as we have seen, if you take 20 million out and distribute it as a dividend the SP doesn't go down either. So, if the market is going to keep going sideways (or follow the general market downwards as MD says) I say dish out some cash.

Arjay

My post was referring to AWE paying out a dividend.

NZO has plenty of leeway to pay out a dividend if it so desires...

Personally i can't see the point when you have just asked shareholders to stump up with the options money to give it back...

Seems a bit defeatist to me.:confused:

I'm looking at NZO again (held NZO for 2 - 3 years before selling around production time), & i would like to see NZO & AWE in partnership explore the Taranaki Basin as 50/50 partners in the future.

[tim23]

NZO and PPP dividends??? Don't hold your breath after seeing what AWE has done.

NOG has already paid 5c for 07/08 fy didn;t you get your cheque?

[arjay]

NZO and PPP dividends??? Don't hold your breath after seeing what AWE has done.

NOG has already paid 5c for 07/08 fy didn;t you get your cheque?

Certainly have Tim (used the money to take up my NEO rights). Given another stunning year of growth I expect NZO will pay another divie next year.

[Hoop]

NZO and PPP dividends??? Don't hold your breath after seeing what AWE has done.

NOG has already paid 5c for 07/08 fy didn;t you get your cheque?

Oh ..yes :) arrived in my trading account on the 16th April.

Probably Hoop is cynical (due to poor historic Management/shareholder relationships)... but was that the start of annual dividends or just a one off offering to get the share-price moving up out of the $1.00 doldrums?

The answer to my above question, NZO Management says it was the start of paying regular dividends.

Quote from the Half Year Report (27th Feb 2008)....
"...Dividend
The Board of NZOG has resolved to pay a fully imputed dividend for the 2007/08 financial year of 5.0c per ordinary share. This recognises an outstanding period and provides shareholders with an immediate share of that success. The Board has determined a dividend policy that in future a reasonable proportion of profit will be distributed by way of an annual dividend. The determination of entitlements for the 5.0 cents dividend will be taken from the close of the share register on 4 April 2008. The dividend will be paid on 15 April 2008...."

Remember..The 1.50 Opts were under threat of lapsing around that time before the div announcement. NZO share price about $1.18 shot up to $1.30ish after that result + Div announcement

The Kiwi investor do love their dividends and share prices tend to reflect this...so a good Strategic move by NZO Management to attempt to increase the share price nearer to its "perceived " true value.

One point to be clarified..... I suspected that this April 2008 Dividend was 6 months earlier than expected..so does that mean the annual dividend will be paid once only at half year from now on.. or at the end of the the full year??


Disc
I sold out (Accelerated uptrendline break) ($1.61) shortly after that Dividend (May) for a 40% profit. Unfortunately I got carried away with the rapid increased momentum and quickly bought back in again during the July spike and sold out shortly after when the promise of $2.00 faded, and the downtrend resumed. The TA said sell so I sold at $1.58 took a 5% loss this time and moved on. Currently hold no NZO

[rainey]

I bought into this co in 2000 @25c just after the Hochstetter well proved dry, so without doubt due to options, ppp issue and the more recent divi, I have had my initial investment returned.IMHO, the payment of a dividend at this point of time, be it 5c or10c would barely dent the cash reserves that the co is holding and go along way to lift the share price to where it should be and convey to shareholders that it does have them in mind, and not utilize the total funds on speculative investments

[fish]

I bought into this co in 2000 @25c just after the Hochstetter well proved dry, so without doubt due to options, ppp issue and the more recent divi, I have had my initial investment returned.IMHO, the payment of a dividend at this point of time, be it 5c or10c would barely dent the cash reserves that the co is holding and go along way to lift the share price to where it should be and convey to shareholders that it does have them in mind, and not utilize the total funds on speculative investments

there are a lot of shareholders that think like you-me included.
However I am not holding my breath.
Certainly I dont see the point of making us wait until next April when they have $300million in the bank (hopefully ! )
Maybe we need to elect a shareholder onto the board to make our views felt

[arjay]

I bought into this co in 2000 @25c just after the Hochstetter well proved dry, so without doubt due to options, ppp issue and the more recent divi, I have had my initial investment returned.IMHO, the payment of a dividend at this point of time, be it 5c or10c would barely dent the cash reserves that the co is holding and go along way to lift the share price to where it should be and convey to shareholders that it does have them in mind, and not utilize the total funds on speculative investments

You're absolutley right Rainey. It's ironic I know, but distributing some of NZO's cash to the shareholders will do more to underpin the SP than keeping it in.

[pietrade]

Is there anyone who can post a chart comparing NZO daily SP with that of the POO ?? I, for one, would be really interested to see it.

[Phaedrus]

Here you go PT - is the correlation close enough for you?

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/NZOoil825.gif

[Casa del Energia]

Here you go PT - is the correlation close enough for you?




Good grief. I had no idea it was so lock stepped.

[Chalice]

Good grief. I had no idea it was so lock stepped.

Phaedrus - great chart - can you add NZX 50 performance as well - I'm sure McD would love to see it...

Previous post -

Market: June -> July DOWN circa 20% (almost a crash...???)
NZO SP: June -> July UP circa 20%
Oil Price: June -> July UP circa 20%

Market: July -> August UP circa 13%
NZO SP: July -> August DOWN circa 16%
Oil Price: July -> August DOWN circa 20%

All time oil high & NZO SP high very close.
Lowest oil price in circa 3+ months close to NZO SP of 1.42.

[duncan macgregor]

Phaedrus - great chart - can you add NZX 50 performance as well - I'm sure McD would love to see it...

Previous post -

Market: June -> July DOWN circa 20% (almost a crash...???)
NZO SP: June -> July UP circa 20%
Oil Price: June -> July UP circa 20%

Market: July -> August UP circa 13%
NZO SP: July -> August DOWN circa 16%
Oil Price: July -> August DOWN circa 20%

All time oil high & NZO SP high very close.
Lowest oil price in circa 3+ months close to NZO SP of 1.42. The NZO share price has followed the oil price disregarding the general market downtrend so far. The interesting bit is about to unfold with the price of oil [according to Macdunk] about to reach $200 a barrel in the next six months crashing the market.
Will the NZO sp follow the oil price up to come crashing back in sympathy with the market or carry on its merry way. China getting back into business plus the northern winter. Then we have China about to take over number one spot at Americas expence. What easier way than bankrupt them. Interesting times ahead, will Macdunk be proved right again sitting it out, or will he have his Macdunk got it wrong thread filled with I TOLD YOU SOES?. Macdunk

[Phaedrus]

Can you add NZX 50 performance as well?
This chart shows relative performance expressed as percentage gain starting as from the beginning of the NZSX50 Index.
http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/NZOoilNDX825i.gif

The results you get from charts like this vary a lot depending on the chosen start date. The next two charts show how much this can affect the comparitive relationship between NZO and Oil.

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/NZOoilNDX825ii.gif

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/NZOoilNDX825iii.gif

[Sehnsucht888]

The NZO share price has followed the oil price disregarding the general market downtrend so far. The interesting bit is about to unfold with the price of oil [according to Macdunk] about to reach $200 a barrel in the next six months crashing the market.
Will the NZO sp follow the oil price up to come crashing back in sympathy with the market or carry on its merry way. China getting back into business plus the northern winter. Then we have China about to take over number one spot at Americas expence. What easier way than bankrupt them. Interesting times ahead, will Macdunk be proved right again sitting it out, or will he have his Macdunk got it wrong thread filled with I TOLD YOU SOES?. Macdunk

If you are right, then there should be about 4 weeks in which to get on board before Oil goes ballistic. NZO may tank, (although not as much as the market) but initialy, at least, it should soar as Oil heads up.

[pietrade]

Here you go PT - is the correlation close enough for you?


Awesome charts Phaedrus. Close enough for me and many thanks.. 'you da man'

[da puntzda]

Thank you for posting the graphs P. It's like the market has not factored the rise in value of PRC at all.

[geezy]

Now that the olympics are over, macd, when exactly is the price of oil hitting 200 a barrel and the market crumbles?

[Snapper]

One more request, Phaedrus. How about the POO in $NZ?

The POO seems to be negatively correlated with the $US but if the market was rational it would be more closely correlated with POO in $NZ.

TIA

[Sehnsucht888]

Now that the olympics are over, macd, when exactly is the price of oil hitting 200 a barrel and the market crumbles?

geezy - the regular Olympics are over, but China is still imposing car restrictions etc until the Special Olympics are finsihed - and thats 4 weeks away. So still some time before China fully rasmps up.

[Chalice]

[QUOTE=Phaedrus;219888]This chart shows relative performance expressed as percentage gain starting as from the beginning of the NZSX50 Index.

The results you get from charts like this vary a lot depending on the chosen start date. The next two charts show how much this can affect the comparitive relationship between NZO and Oil.

Thanks for the charts Phaedrus, great to have info presented visually.

[Trent]

One more request, Phaedrus. How about the POO in $NZ?

The POO seems to be negatively correlated with the $US but if the market was rational it would be more closely correlated with POO in $NZ.

TIA

Snapper
Alas fear and greed, the market drivers, are emotions and have little to do with market fundamentals
T

[bermuda]

NZO will be plus 170 this time next week. ( My Birthday ! )

It is now Tuesday afternoon. For those that want to make a tidy killing on Friday when the huge annual result comes out, then I suggest you buy now.

I dont trade but will be watching with interest. This is the result all Noggers dreamed of years ago. Millions and millions.

[Nitaa]

It is now Tuesday afternoon. For those that want to make a tidy killing on Friday when the huge annual result comes out, then I suggest you buy now.

I dont trade but will be watching with interest. This is the result all Noggers dreamed of years ago. Millions and millions.
I am expecting sort of the same. I dont trade myself so am prepared to sit and hold.

[manxman]

It is now Tuesday afternoon. For those that want to make a tidy killing on Friday when the huge annual result comes out, then I suggest you buy now.



Agreed that the result will be something between ginormous and positively indecent, but not much will happen to the share price until the analysts have had drinkies with each other. About Tuesday for any significant move.

Some good stuff in "New Scientist" recently on how social interactions are a more important generator of price moves than genuine news.

Happy Birthday. :D

Mx

[Drone]

Yep agree, time to go long. Despite us all knowing its going to be huge I would expect 5-15c jump on friday. Excluding the effect of any news on an extra divi or on the use of capital.

I am in.

[Phaedrus]

Snapper, here is Oil $NX vs $US plus the exchange rate plus NZO. NZO shareprice is more closely linked with the Oil price in $NZ.
Isn't this exactly what you would expect?

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/NZoilUS.gif

[fish]

Snapper, here is Oil $NX vs $US plus the exchange rate plus NZO. NZO shareprice is more closely linked with the Oil price in $NZ.
Isn't this exactly what you would expect?

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/NZoilUS.gif

Thanks for the fascinating insight provided by the graphs .
It seems from these it is almost as if the sp of nzo is dictated by external factors-price of oil and exchange rate rather than internal factors-such as rate of production of tui and the prospects for prc and kupe . Fundamentally the internal factors are for more profound-eg tui is producing twice that expected.

nz dollar has had a big fall tonight-down to 69 cents-if sustained overnight sp should rise tomorrow. Rise today could be due to expectation of outstanding result on friday .
Maybe a double whammy pushing up prices tomorrow
Bermuda has an uncanny record of being right in his predictions .

[Snapper]

Thanks for that, Phaedrus. To tell the truth, I was quite surprised at the close correlation - if Macdunk's prediction comes true and oil hits $200 then that chart bodes well for the shareprice (we'll just forget about his other prediction!)

[Corporate]

Thanks for the fascinating insight provided by the graphs .
It seems from these it is almost as if the sp of nzo is dictated by external factors-price of oil and exchange rate rather than internal factors-such as rate of production of tui and the prospects for prc and kupe . Fundamentally the internal factors are for more profound-eg tui is producing twice that expected.

nz dollar has had a big fall tonight-down to 69 cents-if sustained overnight sp should rise tomorrow. Rise today could be due to expectation of outstanding result on friday .
Maybe a double whammy pushing up prices tomorrow
Bermuda has an uncanny record of being right in his predictions .

Roll on friday! I'm looking forward to reading the annual on the plane home friday night.

Maybe the stars will align this week....US$ down, oil up, big profit annoucement, dividend and a SP of $1.70+

[the machine]

another hurricane in the caribbean might spur on the oil price - just intime for the annual report.

m

[manxman]

Maybe the stars will align this week....US$ down, oil up, big profit annoucement, dividend and a SP of $1.70+

That many stars in alignment could be obscured by a single flying pig.
I wonder if we will get news of a future project?

[Chalice]

That many stars in alignment could be obscured by a single flying pig.
I wonder if we will get news of a future project?

Depends on how high the pig is flying and how big it is.

[Corporate]

Well buy side is building, I haven't seen it at 600k for a while! Sell side just at a Million also lower than in recent times.

Price up 4c on decent volume so far today.

Wish I'd had the balls to pick up more at $1.41-42 but I'm already loaded up.

[Phaedrus]

NZO is currently trading at $1.58. A Close of $1.56 or higher will have broken above a 46 day Moving average (fitted to the preceding uptrend) giving a Buy signal. There have been 4 previous Buy signals as per indicators featured on earlier charts. In order of triggering, they are :-
(1) Break of OBV confirmed trendline. Entry at $1.48
(2) New uptrend (end of downtrend) Entry at $1.50
(3) Break above previous resistance. Entry at $1.54
(4) Break above confirmed trendline. Entry at $1.54
(5) Break above Moving average. (?) Entry at $1.58.

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/NZO827.gif

[Crypto Crude]

last night I was sitting up in Bed watching the DOW open on Bloomberg, Boy it was quite amazing... In the space of an hour (or so?) Oil prices ran from $112 to over $120.00...
"New Zealand Oil and Gas and Coal and Condensate" is set for a very bright future...
One of the few stocks that I have on a long term hold, IE no selling just buying when it dips...
The benchmark for next year is two fifty per share...
:cool:
.^sc

[Drone]

Going great guns! Oil up, NZD down, Pike firming, result on friday, momentum shifting in the market depth. All looking good! My prediction $1.65-$1.70 by COB friday

[Corporate]

Going great guns! Oil up, NZD down, Pike firming, result on friday, momentum shifting in the market depth. All looking good! My prediction $1.65-$1.70 by COB friday

May even be close to 1.65 by the COB today!

[Financially dependant]

I bought back in today with my brand new trading account (compared to my old investment one).

The buy signals are looking to good to miss!

[Corporate]

I bought back in today with my brand new trading account (compared to my old investment one).

The buy signals are looking to good to miss!

I wish i had had the go-nads to by in around $1.42 when I was begging to pack myself

[KiwiBear]

Fools spike, general oil trend according to my broker is for oil to continue in downtrend.
Hurricane will pass & trend will continue LOL

Overall they still have a short bias, with the MACD still continueing to show weakness and key moving areas crossing lower.
The latest inventory levels are going to be released early tomorrow morning NZ, if they are matching the expected levels, expect to see a down turn. Unless of course the hurricane wipes out some wells

[Casa del Energia]

Fools spike, general oil trend according to my broker is for oil to continue in downtrend.
Hurricane will pass & trend will continue LOL

Overall they still have a short bias, with the MACD still continueing to show weakness and key moving areas crossing lower.
The latest inventory levels are going to be released early tomorrow morning NZ, if they are matching the expected levels, expect to see a down turn. Unless of course the hurricane wipes out some wells

And my broker says $150. I suspect that nobody actually knows. But whilst not getting over excited about the 1.62 close tonight - it does look like the slide is over. And I'm still picking 10c div. (To not put out any div now will cause a riot).

[Chalice]

Fools spike, general oil trend according to my broker is for oil to continue in downtrend.
Hurricane will pass & trend will continue LOL

Overall they still have a short bias, with the MACD still continueing to show weakness and key moving areas crossing lower.
The latest inventory levels are going to be released early tomorrow morning NZ, if they are matching the expected levels, expect to see a down turn. Unless of course the hurricane wipes out some wells

What company does your broker work for? Just so I know to avoid it.

McDouall Stuart August 2008 $2.50 Buy
ABN-AMRO August 2008 $2.37 Buy
Credit Suisse August 2008 $2.15 Buy
Forsyth Barr August 2008 $2.14 Buy
Macquarie August 2008 $2.24 Outperform
Aspect Huntley July 2008 $1.83 Accumulate
Hamilton Hindin Greene June 2008 $2.18 Buy

[shasta]

Fools spike, general oil trend according to my broker is for oil to continue in downtrend.
Hurricane will pass & trend will continue LOL

Overall they still have a short bias, with the MACD still continueing to show weakness and key moving areas crossing lower.
The latest inventory levels are going to be released early tomorrow morning NZ, if they are matching the expected levels, expect to see a down turn. Unless of course the hurricane wipes out some wells

Given the fact no broker covered NZO initially, i would have serious reservations on any broker "advising" a client on oil matters.

Most of them know little more than how to "fill up the car".

Like Chalice said, please "out" them so we can avoid...

[777]

Must be a Christchurch one. At least that is where kiwibear lives.

I would tell you what my broker thinks except I haven't spoken to one since on-line broking started.

The average of the above is north of $2. Looks good to me.

[Corporate]

Fools spike, general oil trend according to my broker is for oil to continue in downtrend.
Hurricane will pass & trend will continue LOL

Overall they still have a short bias, with the MACD still continueing to show weakness and key moving areas crossing lower.
The latest inventory levels are going to be released early tomorrow morning NZ, if they are matching the expected levels, expect to see a down turn. Unless of course the hurricane wipes out some wells


Did you broker predict oil going from $60 to $147? If so why is he still a broker?

[upside_umop]

http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=av&T=AWE's%20Wood%20Looking%20for%20Acquisitions%20in %20Australia%2C%20N.Z..&clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/voOVtRpAMk5g.asf

looking good..

nice volume at the end of the day confirming things for me...will be buying back what i sold tommorow depending on overseas.

got some more ppp today at 27cent..only 11000 however.

also, prc..all lining back up. may buy back to get some more exposure there too

kb has always been bearish on nzo for some reason...was saying sell when it was last at 1.20..we all know what happened after that. we have never seen 1.20 again!

[bermuda]

http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=av&T=AWE's%20Wood%20Looking%20for%20Acquisitions%20in %20Australia%2C%20N.Z..&clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/voOVtRpAMk5g.asf

looking good..

nice volume at the end of the day confirming things for me...will be buying back what i sold tommorow depending on overseas.

got some more ppp today at 27cent..only 11000 however.

also, prc..all lining back up. may buy back to get some more exposure there too

kb has always been bearish on nzo for some reason...was saying sell when it was last at 1.20..we all know what happened after that. we have never seen 1.20 again!

I think the point to realise is that most Brokers analysies assume a price of oil of less than $US100. The price of oil is volatile and I agree with KiwiBear that oil could turn south again and test lower levels e.g. $105. But from there it goes up. $150 plus. Demand destruction may delay it but it will get there.

As I posted before, the NZO result on Friday is going to be BIG. It will remind me of Cassius Clay after he beat Sonny Liston.

" I shook up the world!!!!! " ( and I have only had half a glass of red ). I have been waiting for this for four years. It is going to surprise a few...especially in this dull old investment climate. Got your champagne ready Digger?