View Full Version : NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)
drone, margin calls will prob come in to play soon as well which could prob push this even lower, if this stock gets to 1.20 its going to be an absolute steal imo
wow 4c lower and i will be in the red i seriously did not think nzo would go this low i guess mcdunk was right how fundamentals get thrown out of the window in a sliding market, next time round i think i will be using a stop loss :(
I can't be bothered to read through the hundreds of pages on this thread, but what are peoples picks for what NZO are going to spend their cash on ????
PPP - unlikely
TAP - perhaps
NXS - friendly merger
IPM/COE - ??
MOG/SER/BAS - very unlikely
My pick is for NZO to take some or all of the 37% of coogee resources that BNB wants to offload.
All IMO.
A great idea for another contest, pick the company that NZO decides to grab/takes out NZO. Two entries permitted.
1. Company that NZO buys.
2. Company that might make a play for NZO.
1. I pick none. I'm guessing a new taranaki project or a farm-in with AWE's projects.
2. GPG. They'll come in and finish what they started in the 80s.
Juggernaut
18-09-2008, 03:47 PM
Well Im out, market is to shaky to be in at the moment, to many sellers driving the share price down for my likeing, is a shame one day before the dividend, but will buy back in when (if) the market settles down
bermuda
18-09-2008, 04:00 PM
drone, margin calls will prob come in to play soon as well which could prob push this even lower, if this stock gets to 1.20 its going to be an absolute steal imo
wow 4c lower and i will be in the red i seriously did not think nzo would go this low i guess mcdunk was right how fundamentals get thrown out of the window in a sliding market, next time round i think i will be using a stop loss :(
Hi Drone,
Stop Loss. Let's say someone had 1000k of NZO on a stop loss of 140 cents. That doesnt gaurantee you will get everything sold at 140 on a market falling on low volumes. I might be wrong.
This is getting worse. Greenspan was a puppet to the likes of a dipstick Bush and now, despite the lessons of the Enron crash, the American public are losing not only their houses but their superannuation too. And have a look at people queing up outside AIG offices in Singapore. Scary.
But the world runs on oil and this crisis just put paid to a lot of alternative energy projects.
Both China and India need oil. And the price of oil will now again be controlled by Opec....
So NZO will suffer as people sell in fear. Then the economists will start to look for profitable companies and NZO will be among the best going. Especially when the price is controlled by Opec.
So cheer up NZO holders. The time to panic is when oil goes below $US40. And it didnt go there last night.
dsurf
18-09-2008, 04:05 PM
I think it is time for a share buyback, any shareholders disagree?
Totally agree unless management want this company to be taken over (I am sure they don't). It is an excellent way to protect the SP & at the same time ensuring any offer will fairly reward shareholders. For example, what % would be available for a predator at $1.50 at the moment? I think a 19.9% on-market stand would have a chance of getting a large percentage filled. Management should have passed a motion at the last AGM to get shareholder approval for a buyback of "up to $10 million over the next year". They then instantaneously raise the share price and have prior approval if the shyte comes down like present to absorb low volume panic selling. Even better is that most years they buyback 0 shares and just pass the resolution at the next AGM to do it again. Also they can "exert upward pressure on the SP" if & when needed. eg takeover offer at $1.70. How much would be required today to get the SP up to $1.80 say. etc etc Hope they are better prepared next AGM. Meanwhile driving home & doing my bit to destroy the finite oil reserves!
Sehnsucht888
18-09-2008, 04:22 PM
Bermuda - Isn't that $10? I thought the $40 was a pre project number. Now that the inital costs are repaid, the current expenses per barrel was only about $10. So Even at $20 a barrel there is a profit.
Although I suppose the cost per barrel will increase as oil flow rates decrease.
Or is the $10 I thought really $40?
Nitaa
18-09-2008, 04:30 PM
I think it is time for a share buyback, any shareholders disagree?let the dust settle. any share buy back now will simply give people an easy exit. it wont be creating medium or long term value for the company
bermuda
18-09-2008, 04:35 PM
Bermuda - Isn't that $10? I thought the $40 was a pre project number. Now that the inital costs are repaid, the current expenses per barrel was only about $10. So Even at $20 a barrel there is a profit.
Although I suppose the cost per barrel will increase as oil flow rates decrease.
Or is the $10 I thought really $40?
Yes, you are probably nearer the mark but there is Kupe to think of.
Does anyone know whether a stop loss can save you in a low volume falling market. ? I think not.
Hi Drone,
Stop Loss. Let's say someone had 1000k of NZO on a stop loss of 140 cents. That doesnt gaurantee you will get everything sold at 140 on a market falling on low volumes. I might be wrong.
This is getting worse. Greenspan was a puppet to the likes of a dipstick Bush and now, despite the lessons of the Enron crash, the American public are losing not only their houses but their superannuation too. And have a look at people queing up outside AIG offices in Singapore. Scary.
But the world runs on oil and this crisis just put paid to a lot of alternative energy projects.
Both China and India need oil. And the price of oil will now again be controlled by Opec....
So NZO will suffer as people sell in fear. Then the economists will start to look for profitable companies and NZO will be among the best going. Especially when the price is controlled by Opec.
So cheer up NZO holders. The time to panic is when oil goes below $US40. And it didnt go there last night.
NZO is still getting $150 nz a barrel for oil -more in nz dollars than they did last financial year average-profits are fantastic-$300 million in the bank-its time like this when pple should be buying rather than selling-
disclosure-own a lot of nzo and bought some more today and may be buying more tomorrow.
Sehnsucht888
18-09-2008, 05:01 PM
Hey McDunk - are you writing under a pseudonym??
Crude will rise again, soon
Posted Sep 16 2008, 06:34 AM by Douglas McIntyre
Filed under: oil
Oil has hit a phase where many analysts believe that it could move below $90 and stay there. If this happens the boon to the economy would be considerable. Lower oil prices would go a long way toward saving the auto and airline industries. It could also undermine one of the key elements of inflation.
This dreamy view of crude's future however is unlikely to materialize. The price of oil will rise again, and the events that will produce this reversal are ready to unfold. The market has not yet focused on the impending disasters that are likely to occur before the end of the year.
Nigeria is the largest oil producer in Africa. The rebels there have spent their time randomly and stupidly attacking civilian targets. Someone holding a Ph.D in economics has moved into their midst and told them the the country's oil infrastructure is the key to its financial health.
The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta has begun to bomb pipelines around the nation's large oil fields. Because the transportation system runs over thousand of miles protecting it is logistically impossible. It seems likely that in a short time a systematic series of attacks will cut a portion of the Nigeria's capacity.
Venezuela looks just as volatile. Hugo Chavez, the president for life, gives all the appearances of dementia. He has booted the US ambassador and nationalized much of the nation's oil and production operations. It is not clear that he has the engineering expertise within his borders to keep the system pumping crude efficiently.
Chavez has a new habit of spending time with the Russians, another oil exporter that has hard feelings toward the US and EU. According to The Wall Street Journal, Vladimir Putin dispatched a few bombers to Venezuela for a visit."It was the first time since the Cold War that military jets sent from Moscow touched down in the Western Hemisphere."
Venezuela may cut its own throat by reducing production to punish the US, but its government is not long on logic or foresight.
US oil refineries have dodged two hurricanes that made their way into the Gulf of Mexico. The storm season has two months to go. Luck is luck and never stays in one place for too long.
Crude is going higher and going higher soon.
Top Stocks blogger Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 24/7 Wall St.
-----------------
Think I'll go on holiday till the dust clears.... Or just start drinking more to settle the nerves..
Phaedrus
18-09-2008, 05:11 PM
Does anyone know whether a stop loss can save you in a low volume falling market?
If the stock is illiquid enough, nothing will save you. You are, in effect, stuck with them - come what may.
Hi Drone,
Stop Loss. Let's say someone had 1000k of NZO on a stop loss of 140 cents. That doesnt gaurantee you will get everything sold at 140 on a market falling on low volumes. I might be wrong.
Yes B, medium sized stop orders getting triggered are what makes some of these market spikes happen.
If you had 1000k NZO with stop loss that triggered a market sell order, you would probably realise a much lower price because your order will be dumped without consideration of market depth.
upside_umop
18-09-2008, 05:16 PM
let the dust settle. any share buy back now will simply give people an easy exit. it wont be creating medium or long term value for the company
Nita, it would be adding value as the DCF at this stokc price relies on oil below $40 barrel. Like I said, they could announce a buy back and hedge part of their oil production, essentially guaranteeing value to shareholders. The only thing is, they wouldnt snap up enough shares to make it worth while....
Heres a start, at least its in the company constitution.
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3065/2866573613_5eb6f81486_o.gif
Was the competition on here?
I believe NZO will take out PPP for around $50 million AUD net. (Ie $160-$170 million)...
NZO is currently looking at how best to spend our treasure trove .
This is well known and they have much to choose from-drilling rigs will become available at cheaper prices-as will buy-ins .
We have been lucky with timing .
The market is fueled by fear but I cannot see what an nzo holder has to fear-especially if we can get digger on the board.
Am currently planning to spend dividend ,s from telecom ,cen and nzo -and at current prices believe its best spent on topping up with nzo .
Or be a party pooper, or rain on anyones parade. Has any of you nzo traders/investors considered what would happen in a world recession to the price of oil? It would go down very quickly. Why do I think this? Because I have seen this happen in the 1970's. Gold at the time went to $US850 approximately, which in real terms is about $US2000. The United states of America is now in a recession. Bermuda, have you run the forecasts you are making on the nzo returns or the Pike River Company, if the world goes into recession? China alone cannot be a driver of the world economy if the USA "hits the wall". China's GDP is one eighth of the USA!
All I am saying is this share has a risk factor associated with the price of oil. I think the price of oil is the next bubble to burst. It's a stock for the day traders/traders!
You new investors, think very carefully of how much risk you are willing to take.
NZO is a great stock to trade if you know what you are doing. It is definately not a stock for beginners!
Anyway that's my opinion.
disc. ANZ, Platinum Int. Equities, Fisher Funds.
joey
The situation now is the game has changed. Resource stocks for the next, maybe two years will be in a bear market. Long term still a good bet. The problem for the traders on this thread is what do I do now if I have been playing the resources game when the game changes? If it is any help, what I am going to do, is wait to I see a Headline in a magazine like TIME or Newsweek that has THE DEATH OF EQUITIES! Then start buying aggressively the stocks I have been researching for the last six months.
That I feel is the way to play the current game!
The situation now is the game has changed. Resource stocks for the next, maybe two years will be in a bear market. Long term still a good bet. The problem for the traders on this thread is what do I do now if I have been playing the resources game when the game changes? If it is any help, what I am going to do, is wait to I see a Headline in a magazine like TIME or Newsweek that has THE DEATH OF EQUITIES! Then start buying aggressively the stocks I have been researching for the last six months.
That I feel is the way to play the current game!
Fortunately at the moment I have a large cash holding, due to my wife accepting redundancy from her job. So I will wait to the moment is right to start buying equities. I feel at the moment I would like some money in gold and gold futures. It is both a protection from inflation and initially at least a protection from deflation.
Remember, inflation or deflation is usually a political decision, so I feel at the moment the world monetary authorities fear deflation more. The problem with this is they are sowing the next bubble! Which I would surmise will be an energy/green bubble!
Any way that's my opinion.
What do other posters feel will be the best way to go forwar in these very "choppy" markets?
joey.
What do other posters feel will be the best way to go forwar in these very "choppy" markets?
kiwibank :D
bermuda
18-09-2008, 10:11 PM
[QUOTE=joey;223952]Fortunately at the moment I have a large cash holding, due to my wife accepting redundancy from her job. So I will wait to the moment is right to start buying equities. I feel at the moment I would like some money in gold and gold futures. It is both a protection from inflation and initially at least a protection from deflation.
Remember, inflation or deflation is usually a political decision, so I feel at the moment the world monetary authorities fear deflation more. The problem with this is they are sowing the next bubble! Which I would surmise will be an energy/green bubble!
Any way that's my opinion.
What do other posters feel will be the best way to go forwar in these very "choppy" markets?
Quote
Joey, It is an ill wind that does no good. Your wife's redundancy has come at a very opportune time. But remember what Phaedrus recommends. Buy on the up.
temptation
18-09-2008, 10:26 PM
Well I'm looking forward to getting my divi and going shopping in the sales!
Not sure whether to go for more NZO, more PPP, more PRC, more VPE, or a bit of CUE!
manxman
19-09-2008, 07:25 AM
Food for thought at http://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/taleb08/taleb08_index.html
A few big words I'd forgotten, and a few more I never knew.
The black swan analogy is a bit strange in a country where "all" swans are black, but the turkey analogy is compelling.
Drone
19-09-2008, 07:27 AM
Divvy day ladies and gents!
10c for the year net or 13ish gross. Not a bad return, sign of things to come :)
today should be a ripper, dow up, oil up, divvy record date.
heres hoping
sideline
19-09-2008, 11:01 AM
Divvy day ladies and gents!
10c for the year net or 13ish gross. Not a bad return, sign of things to come :)
I think gross is nearly 15c for the year (33% company tax), so net payout is 10c
So at the moment a gross yield of 10%pa, not bad.
Although I'd rather like to see that yield lower, via an increased share price of course!
Casa del Energia
19-09-2008, 01:15 PM
Fortunately at the moment I have a large cash holding, due to my wife accepting redundancy from her job. So I will wait to the moment is right to start buying equities. I feel at the moment I would like some money in gold and gold futures. It is both a protection from inflation and initially at least a protection from deflation.
Remember, inflation or deflation is usually a political decision, so I feel at the moment the world monetary authorities fear deflation more. The problem with this is they are sowing the next bubble! Which I would surmise will be an energy/green bubble!
Any way that's my opinion.
What do other posters feel will be the best way to go forwar in these very "choppy" markets?
joey.
Choppy is the word for it. Stay in your fox hole until the shells stop falling. As a parallel - I've no intention changing any positions probably for weeks(?) yet - at least until some direction is visible - - if NOG is still ultra cheap and especially if the 1000 bunker busters just purchased by a certain Mid East power looks like they are going to be used - - then NOG is probably the only game in town.
Meanwhile the piggy bank, emergency maples remain untouched.
Mr Tommy
19-09-2008, 07:38 PM
NOG finishes the day at 137, with a 5c div means effectively 132.
And oil pushing back thru $99 tonight. Are we heading for McDunks $200 ?
Naylz
19-09-2008, 07:48 PM
Hey dont knock McDunk. he has his money out of the market and has been telling us all along about the crash thats coming. I think he is right in that it probably has even more to go.
Hey dont knock McDunk. he has his money out of the market and has been telling us all along about the crash thats coming. I think he is right in that it probably has even more to go.
If you try and predict the market on average you will be right 50% of the time and wrong 50% of the time
Mcdunk missed out on the big rise in nzo -I think he sold out at around a dollar for what seemed to be emotional reasons . I think 50% of his advice has been good .
Fundamentally the world has run out of cheap oil and the price can be heavily influenced by countries that detest the US.The price will remain volatile which coupled with tough lending criteria will mitigate against investing in new discoveries
Digger strongly believes the POO willl rise after the olympics are finally over and china starts massive importing of oil .
I see POO as a 2 edged sword for NZO-a low price now and the assets nzo is looking to buy will be cheap . A high price will mean high demand for exploration and drilling rigs will be hard to come by .
Whichever way nzo wins . Fundamentally nzo is very cheap and so I have been buying last 2 days and will (against common wisdom ) keep buying if nzo drops further . I prefer to buy low and sell high .
sideline
19-09-2008, 10:22 PM
If you try and predict the market on average you will be right 50% of the time and wrong 50% of the time
well, that's just the toss of a fair coin - i.e. totally random without any predictive information whatsoever!
I see POO as a 2 edged sword for NZO-a low price now and the assets nzo is looking to buy will be cheap . A high price will mean high demand for exploration and drilling rigs will be hard to come by .
Whichever way nzo wins . Fundamentally nzo is very cheap and so I have been buying last 2 days and will (against common wisdom ) keep buying if nzo drops further . I prefer to buy low and sell high .
With a bit of luck they sign up the rig and any other contracts right now at the low point and THEN the
POO rises......
Anubis
19-09-2008, 11:38 PM
Well, on a day when stock markets are showing unprecedented rises off recent lows due to a number of factors and oil is back over $100, NZO - on dividend day - closes at its low of $1.37. This week has been ridiculous. I really hope some rationality returns to the market in the next week! In the meantime I will enjoy my dividend.
bermuda
19-09-2008, 11:43 PM
Well, on a day when stock markets are showing unprecedented rises off recent lows due to a number of factors and oil is back over $100, NZO - on dividend day - closes at its low of $1.37. This week has been ridiculous. I really hope some rationality returns to the market in the next week! In the meantime I will enjoy my dividend.
If you have the money then load up. Lots of screaming buys but this one has got big upside.....and safe.
Mr Tommy
20-09-2008, 08:56 AM
Hey dont knock McDunk. he has his money out of the market and has been telling us all along about the crash thats coming. I think he is right in that it probably has even more to go.
Not knocking McDunk, I said "are we heading for McDunks $200" - look at oil price now, back to $104, after a week ago it was heading for 90, bit of a turnaround.
If you have the money then load up. Lots of screaming buys but this one has got big upside.....and safe.
Just a note of warning people. We need someone to take out the unsociable party who has been hedging his/her bets by supressing the NZO SP as the POO has come down. History indicates that it will take the purchase of a few million shares to bust the strangle hold. Past history (and the TAs could help us out) indicates that whoever this is can withstand six months of depressed share price. It stinks of majors - ACC lending stocks? - I sincerely hope not a government agency in election year. CFD participants? - probably involved somehow. A broker will know - probably one that doesn't recommend the stock to its clients. Now that would be naughty:rolleyes:.
Who is missing from the NZO web site - First NZ Capital? ASB Securities? Direct Broking?
Remember the market can remain "illogical" for longer than you can remain solvent. Probably because who ever it/they is/are has/have hedged their bets and locked in their profits at somewhere between 1.37 and 1.80 - my guess is an average in the low 1.60s.
It has taken at least 6 months for the NZX to wave the wet bus ticket in the past and another 6months for any movement in SP...could be a long haul...could be fixed by lunch time....
Would I expect the latter - probably odds against that. The next likely excuse (to stop the SP manipulation) would be PRC completing the tunnel....
Does anyone know how long share loan agreements usually last? Or understand whether puts and calls are involved?
Bilo...."....Just a note of warning people. We need someone to take out the unsociable party who has been hedging his/her bets by supressing the NZO SP as the POO has come down..."
Hmmm....Bilo I take from your post you want a big player to come to manipulate the NZO shares price back towards your favour and against some other players favour. :)
Trading in small markets you will be aware of the effects of distortion (better word than Manipulation) because a big player with it's maneuvering around can have a large effect on the share price. There is nothing illegal about that...and from my experience with the NZX they do an OK job in surveilance. Also the market is an extension of the animal kingdom, the small players feed of the scraps from the big players. Admittedly we add "humane" regulations to level up the uneven playing field so it is safer for the smallies to play around the markets without being bullied too much by the big guys.
So...for the little guy to play around in small areas, you should be applying small market investment strategies to your list of strategies regarding NZO to be sucessful.
Two main factors in small market strategy are patience and acceptance especially the willingness/ability to accept some temporary loss of mobility and the acceptance on who you are (your status) in this animal kingdom market. These factors go hand in hand, for example if you invest a large amount your mobility to exit quickly is slowed. If you apply just these two factors to your other sound investment decisions, they will be your virtues.
Bilo..All things come to those who wait. :):cool:
the machine
20-09-2008, 12:56 PM
Bilo, Mr Market may fix this come Monday if the bounce in European / USA markets overnight are anything to go by.
M
Corporate
20-09-2008, 01:05 PM
also oil heading north again. I wouldnt be suprise if we head back to $148
Crypto Crude
20-09-2008, 01:09 PM
Looks like a good time to start going long On Oil...
Hey mackdunk,
this is for you...
Dont get caught on the bulls horns yah big kid...
http://media3.picsearch.com/is?yJldIST3TQltZcDxe-8N-J2Cu-lkpgZPTDEaz9SAqcE
:cool:
.^sc
Juggernaut
20-09-2008, 05:18 PM
Are any of you chaps going to the INFINZ conference next week? David Salisbury, CEO of NZO and Gordon Ward, Executive Director, Pike River Coal will be speaking, see you there if you are,
http://www.inassociation.com.au/events/INFINZ08/html/agenda.html
Food for thought at http://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/taleb08/taleb08_index.html
A few big words I'd forgotten, and a few more I never knew.
The black swan analogy is a bit strange in a country where "all" swans are black, but the turkey analogy is compelling.
Manxman
Many thanks for the quote from Nassim Nicholas' new book.
I have read both Fooled by Randomness and Black Swan and found them very enlightening. I will no doubt buy his new work.
Thanks once again.
joey.
srowe
21-09-2008, 09:40 AM
You dont often see that combo NZO set to fly come monday
Corporate
21-09-2008, 10:37 AM
Whens Digger coming back to tell us about his meeting with DS??
swissboy
21-09-2008, 04:22 PM
Something a little strange is happening with this stock.
ASB Securities have withdrawn all Offers and Bids showing last sale at $1.37
Any ideas???
Something a little strange is happening with this stock.
ASB Securities have withdrawn all Offers and Bids showing last sale at $1.37
Any ideas???
dividend. They do that all the time.
swissboy
21-09-2008, 04:36 PM
Of course. I already re-invested the divy in my mind, so totally forgot
sideline
21-09-2008, 05:08 PM
Something a little strange is happening with this stock.
ASB Securities have withdrawn all Offers and Bids showing last sale at $1.37
Any ideas???
All existing orders are automatically cancelled when a corporate
action (dividend, share split etc) goes ex.
trackers
21-09-2008, 06:21 PM
Good to see oil back where it belongs and DOW doing well... Should be a good Monday (well it better bloody well be)
Oiler
21-09-2008, 06:46 PM
Good to see oil back where it belongs and DOW doing well... Should be a good Monday (well it better bloody well be)
I agree Trackers..... it better bloody well be! :eek: Oil is bleeding ........ for the time being. :D
Oiler
Nitaa
22-09-2008, 03:25 AM
a poster the other day asked the question about buying on Friday and selling shares on Monday after going ex dividend. Basically its an even game. However if the person bought on Friday and sell tomorrow they will get the 5 cps free and a little bit extra is my guess.
Pretty freakish week last week.
ritchie
22-09-2008, 06:04 AM
Hi Nita.
That was me and I didnt have the balls.
Was going to sell all my PRC...buy NOG ...sell on monday and re buy PRC.
Knowing my luck...if I had...PRC would of taken off today as well
All existing orders are automatically cancelled when a corporate
action (dividend, share split etc) goes ex.
Not accepting new orders either. Just tried and got email declining order because of going ex-div.
Anyone know how / when you can place an order?
pietrade
22-09-2008, 08:59 AM
And 'depth' is currently unavailable on Direct Broking 's site - only for NZO !!!
Sehnsucht888
22-09-2008, 09:20 AM
There is now. you have to wait till 9AM before things appear
scamper
22-09-2008, 10:23 AM
and there is an asterisked seller at 145, which means more than $100k worth on sale ...
but as $255k have been bought/sold already, don't suppose it is too scary.
trackers
22-09-2008, 10:43 AM
Performing well today, up 5c. All the 'get the divvy and do the bolt' sellers will drop out today, hopefully POO and DOW behave overnight and we'll start to see NZO get re-rated towards where it should be. PRC also up 8c today so far
A timely completion of PRC drilling within the next two-three weeks will be where the fun starts imho.
Casa del Energia
22-09-2008, 01:00 PM
Oil is solidly above 100. Seems there solid pressure to keep it there - but I cannot see why (I don't believe in Diggers China theory) - the world economy is going to hell in a hand-cart, commodities are off the boil and SE Asia has reduced fuel subsidies.
What gives? Any theories out there?
(Don't tell me it's heating oil)
- Agaricus Campestris
manxman
22-09-2008, 04:06 PM
Oil is solidly above 100.
What gives? Any theories out there?
- Agaricus Campestris
Sorry, I go with the theory that the number of cars on the Beijing roads has just doubled, and the Chinese refineries are no longer looking at a saturated distribution chain. If I was a conspiracy buff, I would suspect that President Cheyney and his mates would try and hold gasoline prices down until the election, but it ain't happening, so there must be some real market pressure.
Mr Market - meet Doctor Depletion
dsurf
22-09-2008, 04:11 PM
Oil is solidly above 100. Seems there solid pressure to keep it there - but I cannot see why (I don't believe in Diggers China theory) - the world economy is going to hell in a hand-cart, commodities are off the boil and SE Asia has reduced fuel subsidies.
What gives? Any theories out there?
(Don't tell me it's heating oil)
- Agaricus Campestris
Opec members have recently said that they thought $100 level was abou right. Since then US$ devaluation has caused the price in local currency to drop well below the levels when they said $100. Also it was due a technical correction.
Casa del Energia
22-09-2008, 04:24 PM
Opec members have recently said that they thought $100 level was abou right. Since then US$ devaluation has caused the price in local currency to drop well below the levels when they said $100. Also it was due a technical correction.
Yes - of course, I forgot about the USD dropping through the floor.
Manxman - "but it ain't happening, so there must be some real market pressure." - That's the crux - where is the pressure coming from - general or something specific.
sideline
22-09-2008, 05:02 PM
Yes - of course, I forgot about the USD dropping through the floor.
Manxman - "but it ain't happening, so there must be some real market pressure." - That's the crux - where is the pressure coming from - general or something specific.
I think a lot of OPEC countries earned last year a lot more money than they ever dreamed of and
are now in a position that they can reduce supply if they wish to push the price up. They don't need
to sell as much oil as before.......
Casa del Energia
22-09-2008, 05:42 PM
I think a lot of OPEC countries earned last year a lot more money than they ever dreamed of and
are now in a position that they can reduce supply if they wish to push the price up. They don't need
to sell as much oil as before.......
Yes - that could be a driver, still means buyers out there filling demand. It's that demand I just can't put my finger on. A small part of me wonders if the fine supply/demand balance is still out there - and the current economic slump is not masking a real fuel shortage. Or could be just market gyration - equities are all over the place - so why not oil.
(Actually, I havn't the first clue anymore about where oil is going).
Trouble is - with NZOs big war chest, it would be nice to have a respite from the price frenzy of late - a bit of calm water to quietly purchase (whatever) at reasonable prices.
Nitaa
22-09-2008, 06:12 PM
Yes - that could be a driver, still means buyers out there filling demand. It's that demand I just can't put my finger on. A small part of me wonders if the fine supply/demand balance is still out there - and the current economic slump is not masking a real fuel shortage. Or could be just market gyration - equities are all over the place - so why not oil.
(Actually, I havn't the first clue anymore about where oil is going).
Trouble is - with NZOs big war chest, it would be nice to have a respite from the price frenzy of late - a bit of calm water to quietly purchase (whatever) at reasonable prices.
I am with you on oil prices. Right now i wouldnt have a clue if it goes to $200 or colapses to $15.
Here is why. Problems with oil producing nations are not the most stable. Demand is likely to stay strong esecially in China and other emerging markets. Also if overall market sentiment finds itself, stabilizes and grows then so will overall commodities. So to if any wars breakout in Iran, Russia etc
Here is why oil and other commodites could crash. If sharemarkets dont recover from the credit crunch the the simple bu product will be a 1930 like crash. Almost all commodoties will suffer the same fate as demand for energy resources will deminish and an oversupply will occur.
That is how i see it and since noone knows the future the guess is anybodies at this stage.
discl. hold
neopole
22-09-2008, 06:33 PM
a simple observation i have, is that from the people i know, they are driving more again.
which one could expolate to that most people a driving more............
end result....... more fuel consumption.
any one else drivng more?
upside_umop
22-09-2008, 06:42 PM
I like to look up IEA's charts occasionally to get a feel for whats going on...
USA is certainly suffering from a little demand destruction.
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3185/2877705897_b297dd9a79_o.gif
You can also see heaps of other countries too...however, some arent available due to lack of information.
This is for total fuel products...not sure how the number on the correlates, but just an example of whats available.
You can check for diesel, gasoline, heating etc...
NZ and Australia have had increasing demand over the period :)
Cant test diggers 'concept' as China doesnt have the full sets of data...
sideline
22-09-2008, 07:14 PM
I am with you on oil prices. Right now i wouldnt have a clue if it goes to $200 or colapses to $15.
................
Here is why oil and other commodites could crash. If sharemarkets dont recover from the credit crunch the the simple bu product will be a 1930 like crash. ..........
I don't think that the much-hyped "demand-destruction" will amount to much at all -
there is just no infrastructure in place to substitute for commuting by private vehicle in the near term.
Any alternatives will take decades to develop - by then we should be well past Hubbard's Peak and
it should be in clear view of everyone.
Corporate
22-09-2008, 08:50 PM
I've just been reading an article on MA Strategies in a Down Market. It pretty much plainly states that a well thought out acquisition strategy in a down market seperates the men from the boys. And that it leads to the long term creation of shareholder value.
I'll be very unhappy if NZO sit on my pile of cash, under the pretence of protecting the balance sheet. Especially while there are some absolute bargins out there.
Casa del Energia
22-09-2008, 09:03 PM
Hmm - upside_mop source is interesting. Will delve into more charts from IEA - and contemplate. (so surprising USA figures nose dived as early as Jan 08) Still poses more questions than answers.
And Then Nita has the point avout unstable oil countries - True - another parameter of uncertainty.
Conclusion: 'Interesting' times ahead.
(Therefore I'm holding onto NZO - can't think of a better idea at the moment).
Drone
23-09-2008, 06:26 AM
WTI $114.55 (up $10ish)
Corporate
23-09-2008, 07:04 AM
WTF just happened??
Nymex Crude Future 128.10 23.55 22.52 14:24
half an hour ago it was $113.88
Mr Tommy
23-09-2008, 07:14 AM
Did all the oil dry up overnight?
McDunk - is this your doing ?
trackers
23-09-2008, 07:16 AM
Oil spikes to $115 on banking rescue plan
Oil rose more than 10% to $115, continuing a rally sparked by the US' rescue plan for its financial sector.
Sweeping government measures to rescue the financial system and restore confidence in shaky markets spurred gains across markets on Friday, when oil rose almost 7% to cap its biggest three-day rally in a decade.
US crude for October delivery rose $11.38 or 10.9% to to 115.93, a barrel by 1740 GMT -- the biggest gain since 22 June 1998.
London Brent crude traded up $6.11 to $105.72.
"The key driver continues to be the US rescue package which has changed the sentiment in the oil market," said Bank of Ireland analyst Paul Harris.
Oil has tumbled from record highs over $147 a barrel in mid-July, weighed down by growing evidence that high energy costs and economic woes were undercutting global fuel demand, said Reuters.
Further pressure came last week as financial sector turmoil sent investors out of commodities and into safer havens, sending oil to a seven-month low of $90.51 a barrel.
The slow recovery of the US oil sector after Hurricane Ike also supported prices, after causing the biggest disruption to the nation's energy supplies since 2006.
Nearly 90% of oil production in the US Gulf of Mexico, home to a quarter of all US oil output, remains shut along with seven refineries.
Oil prices were also supported by news China increased crude imports 11.54% in August from a year earlier, recovering from a steep July fall, the General Administration of Customs said on Friday, confirming earlier data.
"The Chinese import news is a sign of recovery, and a good indication that oil prices could get back up again." said Christopher Bellew of Bache Financial.
Industry sources also said that top oil exporter Saudi Arabia has trimmed oil supplies to international majors and US refiners since the start of September.
However, gains were capped by news that Nigeria's main militant group had begun a unilateral ceasefire yesterday after a week of clashes with the military and attacks on oil installations which cut output in Africa's top producer.
http://www.upstreamonline.com/incoming/article163637.ece
bermuda
23-09-2008, 07:17 AM
Did all the oil dry up overnight?
McDunk - is this your doing ?
Mr Tommy,
The $US is stuffed and so is the USA. Not MacDunk's doing. The blame lies with Bush and Greenspan. Two of the biggest dipsticks you will ever come across.
WTF just happened??
Nymex Crude Future 128.10 23.55 22.52 14:24
half an hour ago it was $113.88
sentiment has changed-the short sellers have been heavily punished ,saudi may cut back on oil ,slow recovery from Ike, china , nigeria etc
Not to mention the insatiable demand for oil ,finite resource, fall in us dollar
-I feel we may still see the $2 nzo share by xmas and $3 next year !
Drone
23-09-2008, 07:36 AM
WTI futs now at $120, just going crazy! Will be an interesting day for NZO today...
duncan macgregor
23-09-2008, 07:37 AM
OIL will get to $200 a barrel in 2009 so you lot had better sharpen up and dont get caught high and dry on the spike up, followed by the crash down. Macdunk
Drone
23-09-2008, 07:40 AM
And I missed it but they hit $130 for a time, got volatility??!
Some background on bloomberg:
Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil climbed more than $25 a barrel, the biggest gain ever, as the dollar weakened the most against the euro since January 2001, boosting the appeal of commodities as a hedge.
The October contract, which expires today, rose almost $12 more than the contract for November delivery, as traders rushed to close positions. Oil, gold, corn and other commodities climbed as the dollar dropped on concern that a U.S. proposal to buy $700 billion of troubled assets from financial firms will deepen the budget deficit.
``This looks like a squeeze play,'' said Phil Flynn, senior trader at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. ``All of the contracts are up, but nothing like October. This is the last day of trading and someone is scrambling to guarantee supply.''
Crude oil for October delivery rose $18.05, or 17 percent, to $122.60 a barrel at the 2:30 p.m. close of floor trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures climbed as much as $25.45 to $130 a barrel, the highest since July 22. The more- active November contract rose $6.11, or 6 percent, to $108.86 a barrel.
``It's a very small pool playing in this market right now, and that's why you're seeing those massive differentials'' between the October and November contracts, said David Kirsch, an energy markets analyst at PFC Energy in Washington. ``Somebody did place a wrong bet and is trying to cover that position. That's why you've got that yawning gap and a normal gap between the November and December contracts.''
Corporate
23-09-2008, 07:44 AM
And I missed it but they hit $130 for a time, got volatility??!
Drone, where are you getting your pricing from?
Crazy volatility!
Drone, where are you getting your pricing from?
Crazy volatility!
I use CNN to get the Dow and oil in real time.
http://money.cnn.com/?cnn=yes
Bermuda, I see on CNN that your mate Matt Simmons foresees $500 oil!
http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/15/news/economy/500dollaroil_okeefe.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2008092213
Drone
23-09-2008, 07:54 AM
Drone, where are you getting your pricing from?
Crazy volatility!
As reported by AP
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10533640
trackers
23-09-2008, 08:27 AM
This recent action will seriously add some $$ to NZO's bottom line... Any predictions of SP movement today (or this week)?
Rabbi
23-09-2008, 08:39 AM
With the price of oil up $16 barrel overnight I'd say we are in for a stellar day.
WTI Crude up to $1.20 a barrel!
Go NZO! :D
Anubis
23-09-2008, 08:42 AM
Be careful - this headline-grabbing price action overnight in oil was on the closing of the October contract and is mostly to do with someone needing to cover a position urgently. The contract you should actually be watching is the current front-end one, i.e. the November contract. This closed at $109 - still a good gain and potential sign of further upmove to come this week.
Nitaa
23-09-2008, 09:29 AM
OIL will get to $200 a barrel in 2009 so you lot had better sharpen up and dont get caught high and dry on the spike up, followed by the crash down. MacdunkIs this a revamp on your prediction a few weeks ago that oil would hit $200 this year and market would crash this year?
bermuda
23-09-2008, 09:48 AM
[QUOTE=Drone;224628]And I missed it but they hit $130 for a time, got volatility??!
Some background on bloomberg:
Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil climbed more than $25 a barrel, the biggest gain ever, as the dollar weakened the most against the euro since January 2001, boosting the appeal of commodities as a hedge.
The October contract, which expires today, rose almost $12 more than the contract for November delivery, as traders rushed to close positions. Oil, gold, corn and other commodities climbed as the dollar dropped on concern that a U.S. proposal to buy $700 billion of troubled assets from financial firms will deepen the budget deficit.
``This looks like a squeeze play,'' said Phil Flynn, senior trader at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. ``All of the contracts are up, but nothing like October. This is the last day of trading and someone is scrambling to guarantee supply.''
New Post
Mostly it is the weakness in the $US but when oil headed down recently a whole lot of people sold out of their contracts thinking it was going to go back to $US75. And now they have had to bid like crazy to square their books.
Apparently Matt Simmonds has been on CNN forecasting $US500. Must see that.
NZO.... about to do a lot of catching up.
Welcome to the real world . Dont worry, it will be back to $110 tomorrow . But it will go higher.
Oil, a Precious Finite Resource.
trackers
23-09-2008, 10:00 AM
Mostly it is the weakness in the $US but when oil headed down recently a whole lot of people sold out of their contracts thinking it was going to go back to $US75. And now they have had to bid like crazy to square their books.
Apparently Matt Simmonds has been on CNN forecasting $US500. Must see that.
NZO.... about to do a lot of catching up.
Welcome to the real world . Dont worry, it will be back to $110 tomorrow . But it will go higher.
Oil, a Precious Finite Resource.
Here ya go big B
OIL PEAK IS WITH US.
GOLD TO GO THROUGH THE ROOF
Here comes $500 oil
If Matt Simmons is right, the recent drop in crude prices is an illusion - and oil could be headed for the stratosphere. He's just hoping we can prevent civilization from imploding.
By Brian O'Keefe, senior editor
Last Updated: September 22, 2008: 10:01 AM EDT
Matt Simmons argues that Saudi Arabia's oil supplies are much more limited than everyone thinks.
(Fortune Magazine) -- Matt Simmons is as perplexed as anyone that it has fallen to him to take on OPEC, Exxon, the Saudis, and all the other misguided defenders of conventional wisdom in the oil patch. Why should one investment banker with a penchant for research be required to point out what he regards as the obvious - that from here on out, oil supplies can't meet demand, and if we don't act soon to solve this crisis, World War III could be looming?
Why should a man who scorns most environmentalists have to argue that locally grown produce and wind power are the way of the future? Why should a lifelong Republican need to be the one to point out that his party's new mantra - "Drill, baby, drill!" - won't really fix anything and that his party's presidential candidate is clueless about energy? That the spike in oil prices earlier this year wasn't a temporary market anomaly and the recent retreat in prices is just a misleading calm before a calamitous storm? That we're headed toward $500-a-barrel oil?
"I find it ironic that here we have the biggest industry on earth, and I'm one of the few people to figure out that we have a major problem," he says, in his confident if not quite brash way. "And I did it all in my spare time. How stupid and tragic is that? I shouldn't be one of the only folks that actually has a handful of ideas of how we can keep from blowing each other up and get through this."
Indeed, Simmons isn't the obvious candidate to be the bearer of bad news about oil. He's spent his career working in the business, has lived in Houston for decades, and is such an industry insider that he helped edit the Bush campaign's comprehensive energy plan in the 2000 election - the document that was ultimately more or less rubber-stamped by Vice President Dick Cheney's infamous secret Energy Task Force. Over the past 35 years, his boutique investment bank, Simmons & Co., has helped finance and shape much of the country's existing oil-services business. With profits gushing, you might expect him to be celebrating.
Not to mention that the 65-year-old banker doesn't have the personality of a prophet of doom. He has a puckish wit, a relentlessly cheerful and enthusiastic demeanor, and the appearance of a rosy-cheeked cherub in a navy blazer. He routinely refers - in earnest - to his daily experiences as "tremendous fun." His closest business associates have a hard time recalling him ever showing anger. But when it comes to oil and gas, his message is downright scary.
An unlikely maverick
Simmons was transformed overnight from an influential industry expert to an A-list pundit by the publication in 2005 of his book "Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy," a fairly technical read which argues that Saudi Arabia's oil supplies are much more limited than everyone thinks.
Since then he has moved to the forefront of the peak-oil movement - a once fringe but now growing contingent of oil industry veterans, independent consultants, investors, and academics who believe that world oil production is at or near an inflection point, after which it will fall inexorably and fail to meet projected future demands. According to Simmons, we have already passed that peak. And while we're not going to run out of it anytime soon, the era of easy oil is over, and the world is about to enter a period of convulsive change. (Hint: Learn to garden, and buy some comfortable walking shoes.)
The soaring price of crude - it has risen from below $20 a barrel in 2002 to as high as $147 earlier this year - has helped thrust Simmons further into the spotlight. He was one of the main voices, for instance, in the recent oil-shock documentary "Crude Awakening," and his book has now sold more than 100,000 copies. His willingness to make bold predictions about how high crude may go has made him an A-list guest for cable TV news programs and a go-to source for newspaper reporters covering oil and gas. In 2005, when oil was $58 a barrel, he predicted it would be at or above $100 within a few years. Now he sees it climbing to $200, $300, or higher. "There really is no roof on oil prices at this point," he says.
Being so outspoken, of course, invites criticism, and Simmons has endured plenty. But he has also won a lot of high-profile admirers. "Like most people who ignore conventional wisdom, he was scoffed at, ridiculed, and denied," says commodities guru Jim Rogers. "And now, of course, people are starting to say, 'Oh, well, I thought of that.'" Billionaire oil and gas investors Richard Rainwater and Boone Pickens both heap praise on Simmons's analytical abilities. Maine's Senator Susan Collins, a Republican who recently began consulting with Simmons on energy issues, says, "I think he's issuing a clarion call that policymakers need to listen to."
In his own upbeat way, he despairs about what is to come. As the price of oil has fallen this summer (to $108 at press time), Simmons has watched in dismay as complacency has returned and the champions of do-nothingism have popped out of the woodwork to say I told you so. Not that it's lessened his conviction about the road ahead. "I do think there are a growing number of people who are getting it," he says. "But I guess it just reminds me that as a society, we don't have the ability to actually come to grips with a crisis until it's hit us in the face. I am discouraged enough now to think that we're going to have to have a really nasty shock before we wake people up."
Has peak oil peaked?
On a Thursday morning at the end of July, Simmons is sitting in a wicker chair on the back porch of his six-bedroom summer home on the coast of Maine, waiting to do a live television spot on CNBC. Sun glints off Penobscot Bay below him. In the distance, sailboats glide in and out of Camden Harbor. It's the kind of scene that has captivated him since his Harvard days in the 1960s, when he started coming up here on weekends. Wearing a blue-and-white-checked shirt, cream-colored pants, and tasseled loafers, Simmons chats with Ellen, his wife, and Emma, one of their five daughters. His earpiece is chattering as CNBC anchor Melissa Francis teases his upcoming segment.
At the moment, the price of oil is hovering around $124 a barrel, and CNBC wants him to interpret why crude is suddenly tumbling. "Has peak oil peaked? I guess that's our topic," he reports to everyone within earshot, before the shot goes live.
It was on this same porch five years ago that Simmons had the insight that convinced him that the oil age had passed its zenith. During a trip to Saudi Arabia in February 2003 with his friend Herbert Hunt (yes, the son of H.L. Hunt who, with his brother Bunker, almost cornered the silver market in 1980), Simmons had become suspicious of the Saudis' claims about the vastness of their oil supply. In his four decades of working in the oil and gas industry, everyone he had ever talked to had taken it as gospel that the Saudis had enough oil to bail the world out when other supplies ran short. If that wasn't true, Simmons believed, the era of cheap oil was over. Demand for crude was on the rise worldwide, and supplies were getting tighter all the time. If the Saudis were pushing up against the limits of their oil production, the world needed to know.
In his typically analytical fashion, Simmons went hunting for data. He found it in the form of hundreds of technical papers submitted by Saudi oil geologists to the Society of Petroleum Engineers over the past 50 years. Simmons spent the month of August 2003 sitting on his porch in Maine and grinding his way through the minutiae of technical accounts of, for instance, reservoir pressure and water-cut percentages, trying to piece together the challenges that the Saudi geologists had encountered in managing their precious oilfields. In the end, his conclusion was clear. "I finished reading the last paper on a Sunday afternoon," says Simmons, "and I sat back and I thought, Holy crap, this is unbelievable. I've just discovered the biggest energy illusion ever in the world. We're in big trouble. I'm going to write a book."
And so he did. But writing the book didn't exhaust his passion. Today he is more convinced than ever that we've reached peak oil. If he's right, current world oil production- 86 million barrels a day- is about as high as we're going to go.
Of course, if demand goes up but supply doesn't, prices are apt to go through the roof. And unlike global oil production, global oil demand doesn't appear to be anywhere near a peak. Both the U.S. government's Energy Information Association and the independent International Energy Agency, based in Paris, estimate that worldwide demand will be more than 115 million barrels a day by 2030.
upside_umop
23-09-2008, 10:15 AM
Interesting stuff this morning...$109.37 as it stands on bloomberg should break Colin Twigg channel downtrend.
Do you guy think Matt Simmons is being a little unrealistic?
He's got great analytical skills and all, but I believe its a little hard to measure oil in 'cup' quantities and saying its still cheap if you load every car up with 6 people...because if you loaded up every car with 6 people, peak oil would not be a problem for a while yet....it just isnt practical is it? They say roughly every $1 increase in crude will increase prices at the pump 1 cent in NZ...$500 = ~$6 litre...how long this relationship holds I dont know, someone may like to enlighten us with a proper formula.
There wouldnt be many in NZ driving at all at those prices, countries are different with fuel taxes etc, so there would have to be changes...unless GSB comes in trumps :D
Just my thinking, at least in the short term..it would only be a spike, as it couldnt be sustainable in the current economic enviroment (but could be possible is we had mega world wide inflation...)
bermuda
23-09-2008, 10:24 AM
Thanks Trackers,
As you know I have met him. He has no ego. Just a determination to inform the world of an impending crisis. A huge impending crisis. If readers havent read the book , please get hold of it. Then you will understand.
There is a huge threat of world war. Most previous wars have been about oil. The Chinese are well on their way to securing an increasing share...and with/from some of America's enemies.
America is totally stuffed. Bush and Greenspan saw to that. They should have listened to Matt instead of trying to look good. Well they have gone and mortgaged America at a time when they import about 63% of their oil at ever higher prices. On the other hand the Chinese have been planning for this for years. And the Chinese are meticulous Planners.
You just have to read the news. Have a look at what Venezuela is doing...new naval exercises.
Anyway..it is high time we all read that book and got cracking developing alternatives.
OIL, A PRECIOUS FINITE RESOURCE.
Casa del Energia
23-09-2008, 12:59 PM
Thanks Trackers,
As you know I have met him. He has no ego. Just a determination to inform the world of an impending crisis. A huge impending crisis. If readers havent read the book , please get hold of it. Then you will understand.
There is a huge threat of world war. Most previous wars have been about oil. The Chinese are well on their way to securing an increasing share...and with/from some of America's enemies.
America is totally stuffed. Bush and Greenspan saw to that. They should have listened to Matt instead of trying to look good. Well they have gone and mortgaged America at a time when they import about 63% of their oil at ever higher prices. On the other hand the Chinese have been planning for this for years. And the Chinese are meticulous Planners.
You just have to read the news. Have a look at what Venezuela is doing...new naval exercises.
Anyway..it is high time we all read that book and got cracking developing alternatives.
OIL, A PRECIOUS FINITE RESOURCE.
Alternatives -
Thin film solar such as that produced by Nanosolar.
Ultra capacitors e.g. produced by EEStore.
The issue is whether volume production can be ramped up to reach the $USD1 per watt nirvana before the whole jamboree falls apart and Digger & MaCDunk are proved to be correct.
trackers
23-09-2008, 02:15 PM
Profit taking at this share price? Depressing. Things should improve as the divvie gets further in the rear-view and the POO consolidates above $100
Unicorn
23-09-2008, 05:32 PM
Profit taking at this share price? Depressing. Things should improve as the divvie gets further in the rear-view and the POO consolidates above $100
The market is awash with NZO shares. Supply was put way out of synch with demand. NZOODs have proven to be very expensive for NZO shareholders to date. The market has yet to see how, or if, that loss might be recovered.
There is likely to be some weakness in the share price ahead until the company provides some justification for the damage done. The AGM might be the earliest we can expect anything positive. This is a time for patience.
Nitaa
23-09-2008, 06:36 PM
The market is awash with NZO shares. Supply was put way out of synch with demand. NZOODs have proven to be very expensive for NZO shareholders to date. The market has yet to see how, or if, that loss might be recovered.
There is likely to be some weakness in the share price ahead until the company provides some justification for the damage done. The AGM might be the earliest we can expect anything positive. This is a time for patience.Very good point with regards to the ods. I hope like heck that TR doesnt spring OE's (back by popular demand) onto the shareholders. This is not a time to create more shares and we dont need any capital raising. Perhaps in 6 months time nzo may look for a share buyback but i dont think now is the right time.
The market is awash with NZO shares. Supply was put way out of synch with demand. NZOODs have proven to be very expensive for NZO shareholders to date. The market has yet to see how, or if, that loss might be recovered.
There is likely to be some weakness in the share price ahead until the company provides some justification for the damage done. The AGM might be the earliest we can expect anything positive. This is a time for patience.
Hi Unicorn ,
Hopefully we might hear of an acquisition before the AGM
Also we should be getting a mini-annual report soon plus voting papers for directors
Your point about the share price being depressed by in part the option conversion is valid and I feel might have been prevented by having an experienced shareholder on board .
Below is part of an e-mail from Chris-
We will be sending out a Shareholder Review at the end of September -
this is like a mini-Annual Report, without the full financial
statements. At the same time, we will be asking all shareholders whether
they want to receive the full Annual Report, or whether they are just
happy to view it on our website.
Those who request the full Annual Report will be sent it in October.
Regards
zorba
23-09-2008, 08:15 PM
The market is awash with NZO shares. Supply was put way out of synch with demand. NZOODs have proven to be very expensive for NZO shareholders to date. The market has yet to see how, or if, that loss might be recovered.
There is likely to be some weakness in the share price ahead until the company provides some justification for the damage done. The AGM might be the earliest we can expect anything positive. This is a time for patience.
Unicorn,
Is not cash King in troubled times .......
There could be heaps of oil assets looking for buyers at knock down prices .....
NZOG could make some very good strategic purchases ..... but needs to get timing right.
If we are heading into a full blown recession then NZOG should keep its powder dry untill the global economy hits the bottom at which time oil prices and oil assets will be at their lowest.
For the time being methinks NZOG shold be playing a waiting game to see how the US shambles unfolds.
And with NZOG's strong cash flows, Pike coal on the way plus Kupe coming into view, the share price looks likely to perform well against comparison with other shares and asset classes.
Z
.
The market is awash with NZO shares.
Unicorn I think you live in a world of mythology and dreams. NZO shares are trading at half to one million a day. Less than 0.25% of shares issued, now that is hardly "awash". I know that you have brilliant inside info on such grandess but really this is an exageration on your part. "Awash", well I suppose if buyers are rare then someone wanting to sell 10,000 shares would consider the the sell side "awash". Barely liquid I say.
Do you refer to the number of sellers or the number of shares? I rarely find many more than one buyer and one seller - sometimes I assume they are the same broker. Now why would I think that? perhaps they are acting for the marketmaker..
Use some of your obvious insight and imagination and detective powers to identify who is selling. Is it shorting activity sponsored by one of our major shareholders lending their voting powers for a teensy unimportant interlude? Who cares, it is only temporary, major holders have to preserve their buck and the rest of you stupid shareholders in this fantastic company can sit wondering. By the way if you are determined to sell, or on the bones of your ass, you are likely the only loser in the transaction at this time.
Awash!!! Bahhh humbug BS Uni!!
zigzag
23-09-2008, 10:42 PM
The market is awash with NZO shares. Supply was put way out of synch with demand. NZOODs have proven to be very expensive for NZO shareholders to date. The market has yet to see how, or if, that loss might be recovered.
There is likely to be some weakness in the share price ahead until the company provides some justification for the damage done. The AGM might be the earliest we can expect anything positive. This is a time for patience.
I think "awash" is a fair description. All the new shares do is increase PE ratio, decrease the dividend yield, and substantially lessen shareholders leverage to any future discovery. Anyway, it's history now and we have to trust the board/management to spend the money wisely. I think the AWE/ARC takeover/merger was a good example of how to go about creating value in the current market.
Nitaa
24-09-2008, 04:19 AM
The last few posts including mine have talked about the negative impact of the extra 32% (close to it) od shares that have come on stream. Among that there is a hige positive. Adding $200m to the coffers has put this comnpany ihn a strong position for aquisitions or at the very least, a very strong balance sheet. In an environment where credit will become harder to come by, nzo can now pull the strings to its on tune. bit of a double edge sword and i am not complaining at this stage.
beacon
24-09-2008, 10:28 AM
Accumulating
released today
cant access it yet myself
anybody read it-?anything new
trackers
25-09-2008, 10:15 AM
released today
cant access it yet myself
anybody read it-?anything new
Looks like its a new document (good), being mailed out to shareholders - can't see it available electronically which is a pity...
The announcement also says that the 2008 annual report is now up on the site (which it isn't)
sideline
25-09-2008, 11:25 AM
Looks like its a new document (good), being mailed out to shareholders - can't see it available electronically which is a pity...
The announcement also says that the 2008 annual report is now up on the site (which it isn't)
It is available now, I just downloaded it (5mb). You can also view it page by page online.
trackers
25-09-2008, 01:50 PM
It is available now, I just downloaded it (5mb). You can also view it page by page online.
Right you are, annual report is on the site now. The Shareholder Review is available off stocknessmonster:
http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=NZO&E=ASX&N=306029
Anubis
25-09-2008, 04:05 PM
There has been some impressive volume going through at $1.40 today - a lot of decent size transactions too (buyers and sellers for tranches of 25,000-100,000 shares, not just a few 1,000's at a time like we've been seeing a lot of the last few weeks).
So... good solid accumulation at this level... although you gotta wonder - who is selling?
duncan macgregor
25-09-2008, 04:23 PM
There has been some impressive volume going through at $1.40 today - a lot of decent size transactions too (buyers and sellers for tranches of 25,000-100,000 shares, not just a few 1,000's at a time like we've been seeing a lot of the last few weeks).
So... good solid accumulation at this level... although you gotta wonder - who is selling? The glass is half full or the glass is half empty who is right who is wrong. Who is buying who is selling?. The people buying think the share is going to rise the people selling think the market might crash. The fundamentals say its a buy the markets say it could crash. The share price in the end will be ruled by the market which if it crashes will make the sellers the smart people. I think the markets will crash dragging NZO share price down to a lower level. Then i also think the price of oil will reach $200 a barrel in 2009 crashing the market which will make it very interesting to see if NZO shares follow the market or the price of oil. Right now its a fifty fifty bet who are the smart people the buyers or the sellers. Macdunk
Anubis
25-09-2008, 04:34 PM
The glass is half full or the glass is half empty who is right who is wrong. Who is buying who is selling?. The people buying think the share is going to rise the people selling think the market might crash. The fundamentals say its a buy the markets say it could crash. The share price in the end will be ruled by the market which if it crashes will make the sellers the smart people. I think the markets will crash dragging NZO share price down to a lower level. Then i also think the price of oil will reach $200 a barrel in 2009 crashing the market which will make it very interesting to see if NZO shares follow the market or the price of oil. Right now its a fifty fifty bet who are the smart people the buyers or the sellers. Macdunk
Exactly. What is interesting is the size of the bets that are now being placed both ways - this is big money from both buyers and sellers today and they're evenly matched at the moment.
Casa del Energia
25-09-2008, 04:38 PM
The Report: To me, the report shows Pike as under valued since the shares are technically very tradable asset. The oil/gas reserves not booked at all - still not treated as stock on hand or WIP - - does anyone know if the new accounting rules will change that after Jan 09? Profit per share for 09 looks to be around 20c - - 10c div on cards (?).
Still very reticent to give any hints on developments/acquisitions.
All very boring really.
Oh - by the way - an oil engineer would not say that the glass is half full or half empty - simply that the glass has been designed twice as big as needed.
Mick100
25-09-2008, 05:22 PM
I think the markets will crash dragging NZO share price down to a lower level. Then i also think the price of oil will reach $200 a barrel in 2009 crashing the market which will make it very interesting to see if NZO shares follow the market or the price of oil. Right now its a fifty fifty bet who are the smart people the buyers or the sellers. Macdunk
Oil goes to $200 - NZO shareprice crashes :confused:(I suppose if you repeat it often enough some people may begin believing it)
Seriously Macdunk, why don't you declare the bear market over and redeploy your funds. I hear there are a lot of investors waiting on the sidelines until you give the green light to "go in and scrape up the road kill" :D
As for me, I went long crude oil again last night - wish me luck
sideline
25-09-2008, 05:54 PM
There has been some impressive volume going through at $1.40 today - a lot of decent size transactions too (buyers and sellers for tranches of 25,000-100,000 shares, not just a few 1,000's at a time like we've been seeing a lot of the last few weeks).
So... good solid accumulation at this level... although you gotta wonder - who is selling?
Well, end of September could be reporting date for some (or all) funds, and some
rebalancing and windowdressing could go on to show the books in a more desired shape.
Nitaa
25-09-2008, 06:41 PM
The glass is half full or the glass is half empty who is right who is wrong. Who is buying who is selling?. The people buying think the share is going to rise the people selling think the market might crash. Investors only need 1 reason to buy but may have 1,000 reasons why they want to sell. some will sell not because they want to but because they have to
The fundamentals say its a buy the markets say it could crash. The share price in the end will be ruled by the market which if it crashes will make the sellers the smart people. I think the markets will crash dragging NZO share price down to a lower level. Then i also think the price of oil will reach $200 a barrel in 2009 crashing the market which will make it very interesting to see if NZO shares follow the market or the price of oil. only 1 month ago you said the market will crash after the olympics and the price of oil will reach $200. now you say oil will reach $200 in 2009. There may be a stock market crash in 2010 which since its after the Beijing Olympics this will still make you right. Right now its a fifty fifty bet who are the smart people the buyers or the sellers. Macdunk What may transpire in the short to medium term is markets may crash more than the great depression or rise to record levels. oil may or may not go to $200 or could crash to $10 pbo
duncan macgregor
25-09-2008, 07:21 PM
NITA, Get it right please if you want to quote me. I said the market would downtrend leading to a crash after the olympics. I also said China would pull the rug out from under the Yank economy by manipulating the price of oil which would reach $200 a barrel. I did say that would happen in the northern winter when china reved up its production. I also said that i got out the market simply because thats what i firmly beleaved. i think China might only stand aside and watch the yank economy go under with very little assistance as they seem to be doing it all by themselves. I did tell you to invest in a stop loss as well if you remember. Macdunk
sideline
25-09-2008, 07:25 PM
What may transpire in the short to medium term is markets may crash more than the great depression or rise to record levels. oil may or may not go to $200 or could crash to $10 pbo
I'd buy that it could go to 200 or higher on the up-side.
On the down-side however atm the highest PRODUCTION costs are around 80$,
so prices can not drop far below that without reducing supply considerably.
There is not that much discretionary petrol use even in the developed world (I'd guess 20% max) and probably not much at all in the developing world. So I don't expect demand to drop off much, even with a serious
recession. People's lifestyles are just too dependent on oil now that they can change in a hurry.
So, I don't know where you get 10$ from.
Sideshow Bob
25-09-2008, 07:37 PM
Hi Nita,
Hope all is well.
Total opex for Tui is stated at <$10 US/barrel.
http://www.nzog.com/presentations - Forsyth Barr presentation, page $12. Also say later on the NZO's share of opex for Tui until 2012 is expected to be $44m US.
Cheers
SSB
Hi Sideline
This is where Nita is sourcing his date from.
Not sure where $80 comes from?? Are you talking only about Tui or in general?
Cheers
SSB
Mick100
25-09-2008, 07:44 PM
Hi Sideline
This is where Nita is sourcing his date from.
Not sure where $80 comes from?? Are you talking only about Tui or in general?
Cheers
SSB
The marginal cost of oil production is alot closer to $80 than $10
The most recent figure I heard (a few months back) was $60
sideline
25-09-2008, 08:28 PM
Hi Sideline
This is where Nita is sourcing his date from.
Not sure where $80 comes from?? Are you talking only about Tui or in general?
Cheers
SSB
Yes, TUI opex is below USD10, excluding the capital costs.
That is exceptionally cheap, almost as good as Saudi production.
The 80 USD are the marginal production costs of the most expensive
oil currently brought to market, read it in some dutch energy thinktank report.
Somewhere else I saw 75 USD, so a similar figure. It might relate to the production
cost of oil from the Canadian tar sands, but I am not sure of this. From memory,
that oil production is very energy intensive, using natural gas to get the oil out.
Nitaa
25-09-2008, 08:37 PM
Without adding to the confusion, my point was largely aimed at Maccas changing the goal post backwards and forwards.
Yes tui's production costs are less than $10 per barrel. I have heard that *80 is some sort of benchmark that is being used. I guess this is manly for offshore drilling and an ever increasing tightening of oil rig supply. If i am not mistaken, tui jv partners secured the oil rig for for around $100k per day (approx $3 per barrel at present levels). Only 12 months later i bleive the costs escalted to around $500k per day operating costs. In my view we got it very cheap and timed extremely well. More cudos to AWE and the jv partners.
Onshore drilling costs will be much lower and drilling in the southern basin, oil would probably need to be around $200 per barrel or more to make it interesting for the big daddies of the oil business.
Get back to the possted ability of a cloapse in oil prices (as i alluded to a possible $10 per barrel), i beleive that the market will have to go through similar situation as the great depression of the 1930's As i have also pointed out, right now i have no idea short term what will happen with oil prices. I think this will be largely played out on wall street and the white house short term.
ps. any idea at what are the cost of securing the oil rig for the option years from 2015 to 2022. I strongly suspect it will be at least 5 times what they are paying now. It may be available somewhere but i havent come across it. Perhaps Chris could explain.Whatever it is there will come a ppoint where it doesnt become commercially viable to suck out any more of tui. hopefully however that is closer to 2022 than 2015
sideline
25-09-2008, 08:39 PM
Yes, TUI opex is below USD10, excluding the capital costs.
That is exceptionally cheap, almost as good as Saudi production.
The 80 USD are the marginal production costs of the most expensive
oil currently brought to market, read it in some dutch energy thinktank report.
Somewhere else I saw 75 USD, so a similar figure. It might relate to the production
cost of oil from the Canadian tar sands, but I am not sure of this. From memory,
that oil production is very energy intensive, using natural gas to get the oil out.
Found the link to the report I mentioned. You can download it from this summary page: http://www.clingendael.nl/ciep/publications/energy%2Dpapers/?id=7105&&type=summary
Whens Digger coming back to tell us about his meeting with DS??
Digger has been trying to post for over 36 hours but is unable to log-in . He has e-mailed vince numerous times -and i also have once but no reply .
Rabbi
26-09-2008, 04:12 PM
NZO in the doldrums with no upcoming action and ex-dividend. Perhaps when PRC hits the coal face there might be a spike or, will it be a case of buy the story and sell the fact.:confused:
Crypto Crude
28-09-2008, 11:31 PM
Bring back buck...
and Bring back Digger...
:cool:
.^sc
digger
29-09-2008, 09:54 PM
Bring back buck...
and Bring back Digger...
:cool:
.^sc
Hi all.
Looks like if i am to ever get back it will be the back door.So if you rewrite reggid backwards you get the same thing. Been up to too many things to do anything more than highlight each event.
Moved to my new house and got cut off internet by Telecom as they became aware i was going over to Vodafone.Then waited 6 weeks for Farmside to connect me up by satellite.It had 4 failures over 2 weeks using Asian equipment.Now working excellent using German gear,so 1 problem behind me.Now can not relog back in as Digger and can not get ahold of Vince to find out why.
To be cont.
digger
29-09-2008, 10:27 PM
Put my name down for director with two supporting seconders.Talked with DS and Paul foley on 16th about responabilities of director which from other companies i knew anyways but the CEO is required to take each nomination cersiously and they did that.Today i emailed them saying after some thought that my name was to be pulled from nomination.Sorry about that focks as for once you could have had a real vote now it's back to sleep.
Pulled my name for two reasons. First i have many other commitments and my large holding in the company requires that i do everything possible to have the board function as well as possible including getting out of the road.Also a director does not lend itself to a ongoing conversation with other shareholders as i wish.There is a gap though now between what is happening and what should be happening.Currently info is flowing only one way in the form of a fait accompli from the board with no shareholder imput. Take the possible overseas acquistion thing.NZO has taken about 4 lots of money off shareholders as NZOG not as [nzworldwide explorations].So without so much as a by your leave and after taking our money the investment rules have changed.Real interest and respect for shareholders would have required at least the courtesy of going through the motions of asking us prior to such a hugh directional change.Note i have not ruled out an overseas purchase in itself as necessarly i bad thing,just the showing of absent of shareholder opion as being unnessary.
digger
29-09-2008, 11:18 PM
Currently oil is the place to be and NZO is as good as any of the other oil companies to invest in.Putting aside the recent world finanical problems and accompaning NZO SP linked decrease this company has done very well.When all the fine brains of the Cullen Fund lost 1/3 in value NZO has gone up 50%,so how could there be anything to complain about. -
My biggest concern is the seeds of that success is leading to a future likely failure.The board and managment is in very recent years expanded with many new faces and impressive academic records,but as academic quality goes up practical intelligence drops.This is exactally the problem Fonterra has with SanLU.I hear practical farmers tell me only academic thinking would have ever believed that you can control quality from Chinese products.
Thanks to TUI the board and managment look spot on.How we spend this money will be a concern as the directors are too heavily centred around book intelligence .They know what they know and have or refuse to have any link back to us to get educated on the things that are most likely to matter.To be a ongoing success NZO directors need ideas outside themselves.Relying solely on academic achievement is an unbalanced policy that will bring a San Lu to our doorstep.
the machine
30-09-2008, 01:58 AM
welcome back digger
m
digger
30-09-2008, 09:21 AM
welcome back digger
m
Thanks machine.
So how are we going to get this practical imput unto the board.Well if you are a feet on the ground person like myself it is very very simple.At very AGM the director sit up front and are faced so that they have to stare directally at the wisdon of the crowd. Yet when it comes to spending our money not one survey was launch to find out what we thought or what new and varied ideas we might have had.That is exactally what i would have done if i ran the show.The board has failed to first of all collect the widest possible varied ideas from the shareholders on how and where best to spend our money. Maybe at the end of the day they already had the best plan,still the non search from shareholders shows my point of a dominance of academic leadership. The board can hardly say they did not seek our ideas as they did not have our address. They certainly had our address in the last few years when our money was needed. My own thoughts is that we should be looking at forming a JV to buy a stake in a oil drilling rig. It is the tool of our trade and with the current finanical failure some pick up the morgage deals are likely to emerge.
Looks like opening at 1.31 today. Good time to spend this weeks dividend on buying more.
winner69
30-09-2008, 10:33 AM
Looks like opening at 1.31 today. Good time to spend this weeks dividend on buying more.
123 would have been good buying then 777
bermuda
30-09-2008, 10:51 AM
Thanks machine.
So how are we going to get this practical imput unto the board.Well if you are a feet on the ground person like myself it is very very simple.At very AGM the director sit up front and are faced so that they have to stare directally at the wisdon of the crowd. Yet when it comes to spending our money not one survey was launch to find out what we thought or what new and varied ideas we might have had.That is exactally what i would have done if i ran the show.The board has failed to first of all collect the widest possible varied ideas from the shareholders on how and where best to spend our money. Maybe at the end of the day they already had the best plan,still the non search from shareholders shows my point of a dominance of academic leadership. The board can hardly say they did not seek our ideas as they did not have our address. They certainly had our address in the last few years when our money was needed. My own thoughts is that we should be looking at forming a JV to buy a stake in a oil drilling rig. It is the tool of our trade and with the current finanical failure some pick up the morgage deals are likely to emerge.
Welcome back Digger. I go along with most of your comments. But you dont run an oil company or an investment by committee. The Board has a wealth of experience and that experience is now producing very real wealth for the company.
trackers
30-09-2008, 11:58 AM
Bit of a precarious situation here for good ol NZO... On the way hand they're producing strongly and have a huge war chest sitting in the best place possible (given all the world economy crap going on)
... But on the other hand everyone's betting on demand destruction and the USD is hanging in there (for some reason)... So the POO could dive. I really don't want to, but am starting to look towards the exits, my faith is starting to dwindle that the sp will recover short/mid term.. Thoughts?
pietrade
30-09-2008, 12:10 PM
Welcome back reggiD/Reggid - as one long committed to 'doing my own dirty work' I've long felt that NZOG owning, or having a substantial share in, an oil rig would be a quite appropriate strategic investment. Especially given - 1. Rig (part?) ownership would be appropriate as a 'same field' business, 2.The ongoing scarecity of rigs available. 3. The ever-increasing of costs of hiring them and 4. NZOG's proposed further exploration activities. Makes sense to me.
KiwiBear
30-09-2008, 12:17 PM
Thanks Phaedrus, I was watching that previous support also as it had formed a classic head'n shoulders pattern!
Whats your next guess of support to drop too then?
My guess around the $1.25 ish previous resistance peak.
Hi All,
Posted this on the 18th sept also a warning of the dead cat bounce on
the 16th Sept. Hate to be the one that said I told you so!
Whish I'd listened to Dunc earlier and got out of all my shares then.
I was on an Aussie webinar last night, the team had been watching a couple of US banks at there lows and instead of thinking a GR8 buy to accumlate @ $20 chose put options. Well Wochovia WB dropped from $10 on Friday to $3 on the premarket open, as we were online last night at 11.45pm they closed the webinar saying they were breaking out the Moet and partying. Made $20,000 & 15,000 in 3 days. Now thats action!!! Now closed at $1.80 with Citybank buying into them and there junk debt's.
These banks are like Dominoes and even the Bush bailout is chicken feed to whats to come! I think far worse than the 87 Oct crash. I know I was a fool and bought my first shares thinking I'd picked the bottom after it, only to dicover the meaning of the DEAD CAT BOUNCE ;-(
You can't eat oil or gas, It'll be back to basics foodn shelter.
As the big US consumers and pension funds loose money
That's all they will be able to afford.
NOT the luxury of Travel
Buy the foodies and trailer and tent makers
pietrade
30-09-2008, 12:17 PM
Bit of a precarious situation here for good ol NZO... On the way hand they're producing strongly and have a huge war chest sitting in the best place possible (given all the world economy crap going on)
... But on the other hand everyone's betting on demand destruction and the USD is hanging in there (for some reason)... So the POO could dive. I really don't want to, but am starting to look towards the exits, my faith is starting to dwindle that the sp will recover short/mid term.. Thoughts?
"To exit or not? Argh! That be the question." Must say I've sold a few down (to maybe buy back further down) and have stop losses in place. Better to lose a bit than lose the lot I figure. And having some cash on hand feels like a healthy move.
beacon
30-09-2008, 12:49 PM
bought more ...
Casa del Energia
30-09-2008, 12:57 PM
Welcome back reggid. Thanks for putting your self up as an independent. But I doubt it would have made much of a difference - on the other hand Fonterra has a 'shareholder rep' in that one director is always a farmer/farming leader. (although, again - didn't stop powdergate, Iraqgate, Moscow closure or SanLu).
More topically - todays events, I must get off my butt and get on with paper work to haul out more cash for plunging more deeply into this falling market - not being a MacDunkite - and having the pleasant experience of bargain hunting after '87 - I've been looking forward to performing more thefts -- Christmas has arrived early - NZO shares are a gift.
KiwiBear
30-09-2008, 01:02 PM
Beacon - My hard learnt number 1 rule never average down in a down trending Market - Learnt this in the 87 crash and dot com crash! This is far bigger, both of them took 3 years to turn, we are only 9 months into a downtrend from the tops. My pick and the guru's I follow reckon at least 18 months before a turn. therefore 9 months at the earliest.
bought more ...
A cut and paste from part of my post #5543 (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?t=5112&page=370) page 370 (22 July 2008)
...The reason why I am selling/sold NZO
1 The bear has found the NZO hiding place (TA sell signals)..and from past experience I have learnt not to fight bears...it's much financially healthier to run away and hide somewhere else.....DONT BE BRAVE. Bugger the FA as the bear can't count.
2 NZO may or may not hold support at 153. It has much risk attached to it, and my chosen bear market investing strategy won't allow this ..so I keep to the discipline of my strategy which says sell. If it holds that's great I can always buy back in.... I have that freedom of choice. If it breaks 153 support it has a more than 50% chance of testing the next 132/5 support and some chance again reaching the 120c TA target.
Getting close to the TA target of 120c...NZO is now back on my watchlist waiting for trend change and buy signals to time re-entering.
Casa del Energia
30-09-2008, 01:13 PM
"To exit or not? Argh! That be the question." Must say I've sold a few down (to maybe buy back further down) and have stop losses in place. Better to lose a bit than lose the lot I figure. And having some cash on hand feels like a healthy move.
To exit Or not to exit,
That is the question,
Whether tis nobler in the bank balance
To suffer the slings and arrows of bear markets
Or by apposing, buy them,
To buy, to reap, Aye! Perchance to profit.
For in that bourse of death, what dividends may come.
When we have shuffled off our mortal bank balance,
For who would bear the writs and liens of time,
The undicovered debt bonds,
When he himself might his quietus make with a bare trade.
Thus plunging markets doth make cowards of us all,
And enterprises of great pith an moment loose the name of action!
duncan macgregor
30-09-2008, 02:04 PM
This is what reverts back to what type of investor you are if you made money or lost money on NZO. A TA person with a stop loss sell system would have made heaps at the expence of a fundamentalist we are always right brigade. I encountered a similar thing on the nickel miners with my shares doubling in price to drop right back. If i had been a dummy i would have watched my profits vanish like some of you with NZO. The point is have you learned from the experience or are you still always right, and will continue on being sitting duck material. Some people might argue that they have had NZO shares for so long that they lost nothing, which is total rubbish.
If you had the shares and options when the price peaked and still hold, then i suggest you are sitting duck material waiting on the next season to open. NZO requires large sums of money to continue prospecting, its not going to give out crumbs to feed the ducks like some of you quackers think. They might try and pull a fast one to get the price up for the options to get more money in but other than that you have had it. I would think you are on a downtrend regardless of what the fundamentals are. Macdunk Thats what i said just over one year ago on the first page. I also said that if you dont have a running stop loss you will end up with a hiding to nothing one day. I expect when the crisis is over we will be arguing the point with a new batch of fundamentalists.
Remember the sp was higher than this five years ago with you lot buying more at $1-50 for a couple of lousey dividends. The sitting duck season is now open some of you will never be seen or heard from again. Macdunk
Dr_Who
30-09-2008, 02:51 PM
Do NZO have 384 million shares on issue?
I am trying to put some numbers together.
trackers
30-09-2008, 02:53 PM
Do NZO have 384 million shares on issue?
I am trying to put some numbers together.
Total Ordinary Shares on Issue 383,789,859 Unlisted Partly Paid Shares 3,568,500
http://investorcentre.nzog.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=171108&p=irol-securities
reggid,
did you find out what sort of investment experts they have on the Board of NOG ?
When all those supper financial wizzard are failing all over the world, one could be forgiven to have some concern regarding where our 300 Mil. plus is parked.
Have we still got it all
CHEERS ALL
trackers
30-09-2008, 03:55 PM
reggid,
did you find out what sort of investment experts they have on the Board of NOG ?
When all those supper financial wizzard are failing all over the world, one could be forgiven to have some concern regarding where our 300 Mil. plus is parked.
Have we still got it all
CHEERS ALL
Divided between cash on hand, on-call deposits, and shortterm term-deposits of 3 months or less, spread out between the major banks IIRC.
Safe as you're gonna get
Crypto Crude
30-09-2008, 05:58 PM
trackers-Divided between cash on hand, on-call deposits, and shortterm term-deposits of 3 months or less, spread out between the major banks IIRC.
Safe as you're gonna get
Not as safe as if Ise holding onto da cash...
Id take that doh and buy out an oil and gas stock that has future cashflows fifteen times what the stock is currently worth (on very conservative expectations)...
NZO BUY OUT CUE...
:cool:
.^sc
bought more ...
Likewise -at a $1.25-an absolute steal IMHO
If you have got $300 million in the bank could it be a better time to find bargains ?.
Looking forward to a very big dividend tomorrow .
arjay
30-09-2008, 08:19 PM
We may be closing in on a bazaar time where the street-value of one NZO share is worth less than its cash backing alone. Perhaps NZO will issue dollar notes for share certificates? Better still, NZ could swap their currency for the $NZO - backed by cash in the bank - just like the old gold standard.
confusing times indeed.
what happens to NZO's $300 million in the bank if the bank(s) fall over?
Dr_Who
30-09-2008, 08:46 PM
How many percent does NZO have in PRC?
31 per cent
http://www.nzog.com/Pike
Dr_Who
30-09-2008, 09:01 PM
31 per cent
http://www.nzog.com/Pike
Many thanks. Just trying to put some numbers together and was much quicker to get info from here than searching for it. :)
arjay
30-09-2008, 09:05 PM
It's time to dump Pike - the Indians and Chinese need the us to support their booms. That support is fading, and so will the demand for coking coal.
Tok3n
30-09-2008, 09:19 PM
I think China can support their internal economy.
But not India, India's economy is a hopeless case, going to be 75 years behind China by the end of the century.
However, think being in coking coal is better then in thermal coal.
shasta
30-09-2008, 09:26 PM
Many thanks. Just trying to put some numbers together and was much quicker to get info from here than searching for it. :)
31% + options & convertible notes, so i think the actual figure fully dilluted is 34.6%
digger
30-09-2008, 10:15 PM
reggid,
did you find out what sort of investment experts they have on the Board of NOG ?
When all those supper financial wizzard are failing all over the world, one could be forgiven to have some concern regarding where our 300 Mil. plus is parked.
Have we still got it all
CHEERS ALL
It is a concern alright but i think it is as safe as it can be in todays market.The problem become what is best to do with it.The present finanical crisis will go on into the near future so many opportunities will arisis.I just hope to hell no committments have already been made.
Fabs there is no investment expert on the NZO board or any other board. This meltdown is unlike any other that has ever occured so we are all in the dark about what to really do.To spend it quickly in the belief that the crisis will be over tomorrow or hold as it will only get worse and thereby opportunities better down the track---that is the question.
shasta
30-09-2008, 10:20 PM
It is a concern alright but i think it is as safe as it can be in todays market.The problem become what is best to do with it.The present finanical crisis will go on into the near future so many opportunities will arisis.I just hope to hell no committments have not already been made.
Fabs there is no investment expert on the NZO board or any other board. This meltdown is unlike any other that has ever occured so we are all in the dark about what to really do.To spend it quickly in the belief that the crisis will be over tomorrow or hold as it will only get worse and thereby opportunities better down the track---that is the question.
Digger
It's probably most prudent for NZO to largely ignore whats going on in the US, & with the $$$ coming in from Tui (adding to the cash pile) to sort out the Kupe finances before looking elsewhere. (Further cost overruns?)
Perhaps even further assistance with Pike if required?
Just look at the likes of BPT:ASX - buying into Albania, Egypt, Spain etc as an example of not sticking to ones knitting!
Am looking at NZO again ;)
Thanks for that reggid,
looks like the Board needs someone with the skills and foresight of Duncan, who imagines
and hopes that He has his funds safely stashed away and growing, to spend on the coming R/K
Please offer Yourself for nomination Duncan!
BTW.
Property will not be safe in the coming crash, as all land will be nationalised, easier to charge rent than reducing Rates.
Makes no difference National or Labour, they both pull on the same wagon.
K/Rs to all
digger
01-10-2008, 12:47 PM
Thanks for that reggid,
looks like the Board needs someone with the skills and foresight of Duncan, who imagines
and hopes that He has his funds safely stashed away and growing, to spend on the coming R/K
Please offer Yourself for nomination Duncan!
BTW.
Property will not be safe in the coming crash, as all land will be nationalised, easier to charge rent than reducing Rates.
Makes no difference National or Labour, they both pull on the same wagon.
K/Rs to all
fabs,nominations closed for nominations on 29 august and that fact was well advertised prior to that.Anyone wanting to enter now has to plan up for next year.
Dworsf01
01-10-2008, 09:43 PM
Apologies in advance if this is a silly question, but why have I only received a fraction of my NZO dividend payment in my ASB CMA account today?
There's one transaction, the details of which are:
ASBSEC tsfrCASH DIV NZON128203
For an amount which is about 1/4th of what I was expecting / should be getting. Am I missing something here (aside from a lot of cash)?
digger
01-10-2008, 10:01 PM
Apologies in advance if this is a silly question, but why have I only received a fraction of my NZO dividend payment in my ASB CMA account today?
There's one transaction, the details of which are:
ASBSEC tsfrCASH DIV NZON128203
For an amount which is about 1/4th of what I was expecting / should be getting. Am I missing something here (aside from a lot of cash)?
From memory something like this happen with last Aprils's dividend.It will have nothing to do with NZO and everything to do with ASBSEC.FISH would be the best to answer that but i think it has something to do with there security arrangement.Think some is held back as interest so in the end it makes no long term difference to you.
When you do figure it out come back and tell us as i am only guessing here.Have never had my shares in a security arrangement.What was in the small print with ASBSEC?
and is exactly the amount I expected.
Dworsf01
01-10-2008, 10:35 PM
I can't seem to find anything in the ASB Securities terms & conditions that could explain it. :confused:
QOH - Are you with ASB Securities?
I can't seem to find anything in the ASB Securities terms & conditions that could explain it. :confused:
QOH - Are you with ASB Securities?
No, I'm not with ASB securities.
upside_umop
01-10-2008, 10:48 PM
The full amount is deposited in mine and I'm with ASB Securities.
Corporate
02-10-2008, 06:05 AM
The full amount is deposited in mine and I'm with ASB Securities.
Was that in your CMA? I haven't recieved mine either.
upside_umop
02-10-2008, 08:22 AM
It was in my online fastsaver account, so that could be where the difference is.
BigBob
02-10-2008, 08:22 AM
Was that in your CMA? I haven't recieved mine either.
I've got mine... it's showing this morning... It is in my ASB CMA...
Sehnsucht888
02-10-2008, 09:48 AM
Nothing for me in my Direct account...
Ok - now it is.. I guess they had a few to process..
Wilkins_Micawber
02-10-2008, 11:01 AM
Web site update to 30th Sept, now 3.15m barrels. Was 2.85m up to 18th Sept which means 300,000 barrels over 12 days or an average of approx 25,000 per day. Water cut must be increasing now as expected .... :(
beacon
02-10-2008, 11:46 AM
.....DONT BE BRAVE. Bugger the FA as the bear can't count..
Thanks Hoop. that was funny. Will keep that in mind ...
beacon
02-10-2008, 11:49 AM
To exit Or not to exit,
That is the question,
Whether tis nobler in the bank balance
To suffer the slings and arrows of bear markets
Or by apposing, buy them,
To buy, to reap, Aye! Perchance to profit.
For in that bourse of death, what dividends may come.
When we have shuffled off our mortal bank balance,
For who would bear the writs and liens of time,
The undicovered debt bonds,
When he himself might his quietus make with a bare trade.
Thus plunging markets doth make cowards of us all,
And enterprises of great pith an moment loose the name of action!
This is beautiful.... Thanks for sharing ....
Casa del Energia
02-10-2008, 12:58 PM
This is beautiful.... Thanks for sharing ....
You're most welcome
Corporate
02-10-2008, 01:32 PM
Nothing for me in my Direct account...
Ok - now it is.. I guess they had a few to process..
Yeah still not there for me
beacon
02-10-2008, 01:54 PM
Water cut must be increasing now as expected .... :(
I think they talk about less water, ore oil being pumped -on their website....
Dworsf01
02-10-2008, 03:01 PM
Yeah still not there for me
Turns out that the amount I received from ASB Securities was for the shares I purchased on the 17th of September (which settled on the 22nd). Because the record date was the 19th, ASB paid the dividend for these shares into my CMA.
The dividend for the rest of my shares will be sent out by the Share Registry and so I presume this will arrive my cheque like all my other dividends.
Corporate
02-10-2008, 03:03 PM
Turns out that the amount I received from ASB Securities was for the shares I purchased on the 17th of September (which settled on the 22nd). Because the record date was the 19th, ASB paid the dividend for these shares into my CMA.
The dividend for the rest of my shares will be sent out by the Share Registry and so I presume this will arrive my cheque like all my other dividends.
Yeah i just got off the phone with the people at computershare and the cheque got mailed out today.
Why don't you give Computershare your bank account number. The money would then be in the bank now. It will apply to all shareholdings they manage.
Dworsf01
02-10-2008, 03:52 PM
Why don't you give Computershare your bank account number. The money would then be in the bank now. It will apply to all shareholdings they manage.
I've been meaning to do that for a while; this should enough of a reason to pull finger
digger
02-10-2008, 05:34 PM
I've been meaning to do that for a while; this should enough of a reason to pull finger
Thanks Dwors for getting back and saying what happened.It will occur to someone in the future so good to know all the little pathways in getting that money into your account.It makes since the way it happened .
digger
02-10-2008, 10:08 PM
They were also cheering a decision Tuesday by the Securities and Exchange Commission to ease rules that force companies to devalue assets on their balance sheets to reflect the price they can get on the market.End of snibit from NZ Hearld.
If the US goes this way will we then change our plans as i understand them to force companies to value investments at market value here in NZ. Note PIKE is on our books at less than market value.Any accountants like to come in on this one.What i am getting at is that you can not have it all ways.
Cheers Digger
shasta
02-10-2008, 10:22 PM
They were also cheering a decision Tuesday by the Securities and Exchange Commission to ease rules that force companies to devalue assets on their balance sheets to reflect the price they can get on the market.End of snibit from NZ Hearld.
If the US goes this way will we then change our plans as i understand them to force companies to value investments at market value here in NZ. Note PIKE is on our books at less than market value.Any accountants like to come in on this one.What i am getting at is that you can not have it all ways.
Cheers Digger
Under IFRS this already occurs, hence the reason why companies show unrealized gains/losses in there carrying value. (ie Lower of cost or Market value)
It distorts the true results, but this is the new rules!
duncan macgregor
03-10-2008, 12:24 PM
Well done Clips.. sensational.
Duncan.. remember that horse called Kiwi....no good being the front runner 400 metres from home..
for the record.. i came home close with my 1.81. much better than you there duncan my friend.. you see.. its the ability of one to see what no one else can se that makes one stand out. For that i think am going to appoint clips as my personal financial adviser if he isnt already booked out.
dunc. let me know when you are going to buy in... that will be my cue to sell I wonder if NITA has learned anything from this very predictable downturn. Remember it was me warning you to get out the market NITA warning you that a falling tide takes all ships down. This is only the begining of a couple of years of market volatility where you are either quick or dead. NZO are where they were at their peak five years ago.
If i were them i would buy back from the mug punters shares they sold for $1-50 at anything below cost.
What better way to make money than sell something to buy back at a cheaper price. I Expect the sp in this market to side track until they come out with what they intend doing in the near future. Macdunk
Casa del Energia
03-10-2008, 01:44 PM
I wonder if NITA has learned anything from this very predictable downturn. Remember it was me warning you to get out the market NITA warning you that a falling tide takes all ships down. This is only the begining of a couple of years of market volatility where you are either quick or dead. NZO are where they were at their peak five years ago.
If i were them i would buy back from the mug punters shares they sold for $1-50 at anything below cost.
What better way to make money than sell something to buy back at a cheaper price. I Expect the sp in this market to side track until they come out with what they intend doing in the near future. Macdunk
The world has many shades - therefore black and white solutions can never provide the whole solution. Yes, the market is falling - and will probably fall further. But skydiving from the plane is not the only 'solution'. How each person avoids the incoming shells over the next year or so is really a matter of personal strategy, use of common sense as well as listening to all pundits. So in order to balance things up - consider this:
If I arbitrarily take NZOs sp to be benchmarked at "1" at 5pm today - the worst this is ever likely to happen is that on 4 Oct 2009 it will be 1/2 - Arithmetically it could go to '0' - but consider that between the number 1 and infinity there is a lot of 'up' side - this is just arithmetic and is amply demonstrated by taking the NZX benchmark in 1979 as '1', today it would be '7' (approx - I'm not going to sit down all day with a calculator) .
What does this mean? Short term you can get wasted and get close to '0', long term you are assured to get close to double digit numbers - - Mathematics can be non intuitive - but as they say in aviation -"Trust your instruments".
(Besides - if you bail out at less than 500ft - you'll die anyway)
duncan macgregor
03-10-2008, 02:15 PM
The world has many shades - therefore black and white solutions can never provide the whole solution. Yes, the market is falling - and will probably fall further.
What does this mean? Short term you can get wasted and get close to '0', long term you are assured to get close to double digit numbers - - Mathematics can be non intuitive - but as they say in aviation -"Trust your instruments".
(Besides - if you bail out at less than 500ft - you'll die anyway) Look what happened to the pilot that trusted his instruments and flew into a mountain. Air NZ even tried to blame him for doing just that. The mathematics of the situation only requires a simple stop loss to save you from the lemming stampedes that take you over the edge.
Its easier to stand aside and pick over the spoils at the bottom of the cliff. Macdunk
Nitaa
03-10-2008, 03:31 PM
Duncan. You just dont get it do you.
Warthog sums you up very well.
Casa del Energia
03-10-2008, 03:46 PM
Look what happened to the pilot that trusted his instruments and flew into a mountain. Air NZ even tried to blame him for doing just that. The mathematics of the situation only requires a simple stop loss to save you from the lemming stampedes that take you over the edge.
Its easier to stand aside and pick over the spoils at the bottom of the cliff. Macdunk
Touche. There is always the danger when getting over allegorical - hoisted by my own petard.
duncan macgregor
03-10-2008, 03:50 PM
Duncan. You just dont get it do you.
Warthog sums you up very well. NITA how often have you got to be told to set yourself a simple stop loss. Five years for two lousey dividends plus a loss on the options for the brain dead. Surely by now you must realise that you can do better than that. Its like a turkey looking forward to christmas. The market will always have its extreme highs and lows with all the shares taking big hits every so often. You should never hold a share running below the thirty day moving average for starters regardless of how wrong you think the market is. Think of all those poor suckers that borrowed to convert the options look at the money they have lost simply because they got caught up in all the hype. Get yourself over to the Auckland get together and i will buy you a beer you poor sod. Macdunk
Bixbite
03-10-2008, 04:13 PM
Look what happened to the pilot that trusted his instruments and flew into a mountain. Air NZ even tried to blame him for doing just that. The mathematics of the situation only requires a simple stop loss to save you from the lemming stampedes that take you over the edge.
Its easier to stand aside and pick over the spoils at the bottom of the cliff. Macdunk
Could I choose having a “hibernation or estivation” in this harsh weather instead of flying?
ZZZZZZ!!!!!!!!
.
With nzo stating on their website the weekly nz $ obtained for Tui oil I wonder if anyone on this forum has been calculating the gross income from Tui for the 1st quarter just gone .
Corporate
05-10-2008, 09:51 PM
With nzo stating on their website the weekly nz $ obtained for Tui oil I wonder if anyone on this forum has been calculating the gross income from Tui for the 1st quarter just gone .
Hi Fish,
I've been looking at gross income for the quarter. I put it at approximately $65-70 Million. It will be very interesting to see if i am close.
Also, someone earlier posted that production had dropped suddenly to 20,000 - 25,000 barrels of oil per day. I was a little shocked about that but have noticed that there has been a notice put up on the NZO website saying the following;
NB: In mid-September there was a planned slow down in production to allow for tank cleaning. Full production has resumed with a forecast daily production rate of approx 34,000 barrels of oil.
Great to read
digger
05-10-2008, 10:40 PM
Hi Fish,
I've been looking at gross income for the quarter. I put it at approximately $65-70 Million. It will be very interesting to see if i am close.
Also, someone earlier posted that production had dropped suddenly to 20,000 - 25,000 barrels of oil per day. I was a little shocked about that but have noticed that there has been a notice put up on the NZO website saying the following;
Great to read
I had some hope that the JVers did this with intend.The finanical meltdown has the oil prices by the short and curly for now but unless you believe the world will forever go into a recession,it will all swing the other way. Be good to have the oil still there when it does. In fact i see the current oil price as a form of cruelity.As oil drops it get close to it's recovery cost so no new projects will be research and developed.So to my mind anything under 110 is just shifting the problem down the track to be faced again in the future where we will all be less able to handle it.Still markets are illogical and controled by short term fears and greeds whichever dominate at any given time.
Digger
Anubis
06-10-2008, 03:17 PM
It's like the apocalypse across the Tasman today - shares like AWE and others are being sold down aggressively while half the country is on Labour Day holiday. NZO and PRC are doing well to hold up over here!
Nitaa
06-10-2008, 03:42 PM
The likes of AWE represents greatvalue at present. As long as you are prepared for plenrty of volatility, medium term looks great. Similar fasion to PPP and NZO of course. At current prices the likes of PPP could be broken up and return far more back to its investors. Vultures will bew waiting in the wings
Dr_Who
06-10-2008, 04:00 PM
It's like the apocalypse across the Tasman today - shares like AWE and others are being sold down aggressively while half the country is on Labour Day holiday. NZO and PRC are doing well to hold up over here!
The entire Asia Pacific market looks very sick. If Europe is weak tonight, the dow looks like it will have another bad day tonight.
macduffy
06-10-2008, 04:01 PM
The likes of AWE represents greatvalue at present. As long as you are prepared for plenrty of volatility, medium term looks great. Similar fasion to PPP and NZO of course. At current prices the likes of PPP could be broken up and return far more back to its investors. Vultures will bew waiting in the wings
Except that directors of PPP have large shareholdings and are unlikely to allow any vultures to have their way!
;)
Nitaa
06-10-2008, 04:26 PM
Absolutely true. AT knows the value irrespective of the current sp. I am more emphasizing the current value and unless you are forced to sell you should be holding steadfast at this time.
About 2 or 3 months ago i mentioned the risk of over leveraging (actually mean borrowing) to buy shares. No matter what the real value, someone over exposed can be forced to sell at below true value.
macduffy
06-10-2008, 04:52 PM
Yes. I go along with that Nita.
I know this is the NZO thread but I'll be looking hard at some more PPP if they get any cheaper.
;)
duncan macgregor
07-10-2008, 07:13 AM
A downtrend this year leading up to a crash after the olympics was my prediction with leave your money in the bank if you find a safe one. All ships go down with the falling tide, the brain dead will still work out profit margins, and PE ratios in a crashing market.
Looks like a real hiding in the market about to front up today. Macdunk
digger
07-10-2008, 09:44 AM
A downtrend this year leading up to a crash after the olympics was my prediction with leave your money in the bank if you find a safe one. All ships go down with the falling tide, the brain dead will still work out profit margins, and PE ratios in a crashing market.
Looks like a real hiding in the market about to front up today. Macdunk
Duncan Macgregor,
Recent and current history has shown that you turned out to be the best prophet on the direction of world markets. Your only small failing is that you guessed oil to 200 then this crash.That prophesy turned out considerably better than mine and more accurate than anyone elses i have read on from this sharemarket group.
My own belief that after the olympics China's reentry into oil buying would send WTI back up has been blown out of the water by the finanical chaos now ruling the world. The US as we all knew were hughly waistful in there use of oil and had a lot of room for efficiency gains,Well they are starting down that track thanks to money concerns and are reported to be using up to 5% less oil than last year. They probably will be able to economise in this manner for a few more years before the eventual non discressionary oil base is hit. About then the world will be in the sh-it big time as currently WTI is approaching it's new discovery limit,with canadian tar sands now requiring 85. If the world goes too long down an immediate short term path ,the cruel outcome will be much worse than what we are now facing.This planet can not afford to stop drilling or abandon alternative enegry developments.
So Duncan Macgregor i take my hat off to you on this very important call.
Can you now perhaps after a short head swelling show some humbleness and donate a small part of your vast cash stockpile to the more foolish us use that remained fully invested.
Cheers Digger
Bixbite
07-10-2008, 09:54 AM
A downtrend this year leading up to a crash after the olympics was my prediction with leave your money in the bank if you find a safe one. All ships go down with the falling tide, the brain dead will still work out profit margins, and PE ratios in a crashing market.
Looks like a real hiding in the market about to front up today. Macdunk
Are banks all safe? If yes, why governments have to fund to support them?
Is New Zealand Oil and Gas safe? Compare with their reserves including cash, the fundamental of this company is safe than most of the banks.
Cheers
the machine
07-10-2008, 11:50 AM
maybe the fall of op will cause a rig to become available [and at a cheaper cost] for tui drilling next year
m
digger
07-10-2008, 12:55 PM
maybe the fall of op will cause a rig to become available [and at a cheaper cost] for tui drilling next year
m
Now in the long term that would be the way to go.Question is in this crasy world is anyone thinking long term.
My biggest hope is that NZO have not already tied themselves up to some acquistion.When i was at the welligton office on the 16 sept,DS was having a constant supply of deals put before him.The way things are going the best outcome will be if we did nothing.The world now belongs to whoever has a bit of spare cash. I will email NZO and find out if the deal of the century has been missed by acting too soon.
Nitaa
07-10-2008, 02:17 PM
Now in the long term that would be the way to go.Question is in this crasy world is anyone thinking long term.
My biggest hope is that NZO have not already tied themselves up to some acquistion.When i was at the welligton office on the 16 sept,DS was having a constant supply of deals put before him.The way things are going the best outcome will be if we did nothing.The world now belongs to whoever has a bit of spare cash. I will email NZO and find out if the deal of the century has been missed by acting too soon.Well done Digger. I was waiting for someone to bring up this exact scenario.
In an crazy way, what is happening at present is actually making companies like NZO, AWE and PPP much stronger. These companies will be able to farm in, take over other spec stocks that have a credit problem.
You make the perfect point about alternative energy solutions being put back by the price of oil declining which will only have a more adverse affect in the next few years.
Short to medium term i think AWE and PPP are screaming buys. NZO not too far behind.
Recomendation. Buy PPP at NZ0.22 Buy AWE at AU2.20
Duncan.. Check these prices out at 31st Dec 08 for the short term.
Discl. hold. Also i am not a financial expert so please DYOR
Dr_Who
07-10-2008, 02:25 PM
NZO's graph looks like it is heading for $1.00. :eek:
digger
07-10-2008, 02:31 PM
I have just received back the news from Chris Roberts that i was so hoping to hear.
Bacically the company has ongoing committments to increasing the fluid capacity of the Umuroa and cost still towards Kupe.However the very good news is that the company has so far made no acquistion committments and in fact is still exploring this area.To my thinking that is better news than Pike stricking first coal.
Cheers Digger
Dr_Who
07-10-2008, 02:35 PM
I am assuming there will be plenty of people with leveraging in NZO who are force sellers? I recall posters on here talking about mortgaging their houses to buy NZO not too long back.
sideline
07-10-2008, 03:05 PM
maybe the fall of op will cause a rig to become available [and at a cheaper cost] for tui drilling next year
m
Exactly what I think. In the current climate a few explorers might find financing projects a bit
difficult and that could free up a few drill slots at a reasonable rate. I hope the TUI consortium
are working to get their expansion plans drill-ready as we speak.
duncan macgregor
07-10-2008, 03:10 PM
I am assuming there will be plenty of people with leveraging in NZO who are force sellers? I recall posters on here talking about mortgaging their houses to buy NZO not too long back. The very same thing happened a few years ago when NZO went up into the dollar thirties some people even lost a farm if i am not mistaken. with the sp at 120c i notice a complete absense of the peak oilers and other rampers in the forum. The market decides the price, learn to study the market and what drives it.
All companies are in for a hiding in the market regardless of fundamentals learn to accept that fact, and reposition yourself when it turns in a couple of years time.
The lower it goes the steeper the uptrend when this is all over. Macdunk
Dr_Who
07-10-2008, 03:28 PM
You gotto have a laugh at this.
Someone is ramping NZO sp at the Trademe message board.. ROFL!!!
http://www.trademe.co.nz/Community/MessageBoard/Messages.aspx?id=29004147&threadid=29004147
I have just received back the news from Chris Roberts that i was so hoping to hear.
Bacically the company has ongoing committments to increasing the fluid capacity of the Umuroa and cost still towards Kupe.However the very good news is that the company has so far made no acquistion committments and in fact is still exploring this area.To my thinking that is better news than Pike stricking first coal.
Cheers Digger
Great news digger .
Did Chris give you any idea of the current nz value of the cash they hold ? Do you know how much is invested in us dollars-with more than a 20% drop in the nz/us on this plus the $50 million or so net earnings from tui this 1st financial quarter the cash backing must be very close to $1 nz a share .
Casa del Energia
07-10-2008, 05:44 PM
The very same thing happened a few years ago when NZO went up into the dollar thirties some people even lost a farm if i am not mistaken. with the sp at 120c i notice a complete absense of the peak oilers and other rampers in the forum. The market decides the price, learn to study the market and what drives it.
All companies are in for a hiding in the market regardless of fundamentals learn to accept that fact, and reposition yourself when it turns in a couple of years time.
The lower it goes the steeper the uptrend when this is all over. Macdunk
No, I'm still here - biding my time. It's probably 'out of fashion' at the moment - but peak oil is real, and it is going to rain on our parade. And it's part of my reason for buying NOG. Hydrogen fuel cells are still 20 years off, fusion has been off the menu for ten years, solar still only gets 16% efficiency at the outside, we need to drain all the oceans to grow enough sugar cane for ethanol, Nuclear fission is plain dangerous (Although I have some Uranium exploration shares in bottom drawer just in case) - - oil is still the only thing going.
Since I don't need to sell now or in the foreseeable future - then what the market does at this moment is irrelevant to me (Although if I sold now - I would still realise a profit)
Hows that for a ramp? Actually, I would be pleased to see what the bottom is - and purchase more off some poor slob who is either leveraged or doesn't see more than 2 nano seconds into the future or both.
Plus - NZO is sitting on the biggest pile of cash this side of the black stump in an aquisition market that is getting is getting cheaper by the atto second.
Ramp-o-matic.
Ham_eggs
07-10-2008, 06:20 PM
I am assuming there will be plenty of people with leveraging in NZO who are force sellers? I recall posters on here talking about mortgaging their houses to buy NZO not too long back.
I agree. Surely only those needing the funds would sell at a time when the fundamentals are so sound. Sad state of affairs if you ask me. Comes back the the old adage of never investing what you may need.
Unicorn
07-10-2008, 06:56 PM
Great news digger .
Did Chris give you any idea of the current nz value of the cash they hold ? Do you know how much is invested in us dollars-with more than a 20% drop in the nz/us on this plus the $50 million or so net earnings from tui this 1st financial quarter the cash backing must be very close to $1 nz a share .
Hi Fish
Your figures are a bit more optimistic than my estimates. For the last quarter I would expect something more like ...
32,000 average barrels per day
* 12.5% share
* $170NZ average price less $15NZ costs = $155NZ
* 92 days
- 20% royalty
- 20% tax
= about $36M NZ, on top of the $285M at year end.
So cash might be nearer 80cents per share, if none has been directed into Kupe.
The 20% drop in the exchange rate probably does not have much impact, if the income is brought back onshore upon receipt.
Sideshow Bob
07-10-2008, 08:28 PM
You gotto have a laugh at this.
Someone is ramping NZO sp at the Trademe message board.. ROFL!!!
http://www.trademe.co.nz/Community/MessageBoard/Messages.aspx?id=29004147&threadid=29004147
Quality!!
Although need all the ramping we can get......
Sideshow Bob
07-10-2008, 08:33 PM
Hi Fish
Your figures are a bit more optimistic than my estimates. For the last quarter I would expect something more like ...
32,000 average barrels per day
* 12.5% share
* $170NZ average price less $15NZ costs = $155NZ
* 92 days
- 20% royalty
- 20% tax
= about $36M NZ, on top of the $285M at year end.
So cash might be nearer 80cents per share, if none has been directed into Kupe.
The 20% drop in the exchange rate probably does not have much impact, if the income is brought back onshore upon receipt.
Does the $285m count the $20m paid out in dividends recently?
Hi Fish
Your figures are a bit more optimistic than my estimates. For the last quarter I would expect something more like ...
32,000 average barrels per day
* 12.5% share
* $170NZ average price less $15NZ costs = $155NZ
* 92 days
- 20% royalty
- 20% tax
= about $36M NZ, on top of the $285M at year end.
So cash might be nearer 80cents per share, if none has been directed into Kupe.
The 20% drop in the exchange rate probably does not have much impact, if the income is brought back onshore upon receipt.
Hi Unicorn,
I understand nzo has significant investments in US dollars -?60 million. The recent fall in nz dollar by 20% could have given a significant unrealised currency gain .
Production performance from the NZO website-Oil Production since 1 July 2008:
1 July-5 October: Approx 3.3 million barrels. NZOG's share of production approx 410,000 barrels.
NB: In mid-September there was a planned slow down in production to allow for tank cleaning. Full production has resumed with a forecast daily production rate of approx 34,000 barrels of oil.
The website also gives weekly prices obtained converted to nz dollars-
In july the average price was $193 a barrel , august 178 and september 160 and a weighted average looks close to $180
So 400000 barrels at $180 = $72 million approx gross
Additionally what I like is that they are expecting to resume producing at 34000 barrels a day which is still giving nzo over 4000 barrels a day and a gross of around $600000 a day
A friend of mine was out buying nzo again today -he is very good at finding the best value in nz shares-pointed out to me that the value he puts on PRC per share plus the current cash value per share is more than the current share price !
Unicorn
07-10-2008, 09:57 PM
Does the $285m count the $20m paid out in dividends recently?
No, the dividend is excluded as it was paid in Q2.
The $285M I suggested at year end was actually my estimate of the current cash (too many bits of paper around here). Sorry for the confusion.
The reported figure at end of year, was $256M. This was superceded by an announced figure of $280M late in July after final options money was received, and presumably most of the July Tui income. The $36M odd estimate was from the first quarter.
After the dividend, my guess right now would be around $285M. But some of this may have been applied to various purposes such as reducing Kupe borrowings.
corsairx
07-10-2008, 10:39 PM
I agree. Surely only those needing the funds would sell at a time when the fundamentals are so sound. Sad state of affairs if you ask me. Comes back the the old adage of never investing what you may need.
I keep reading variants of this argument "Who would want to sell now, while the market is going down, but when there is such fundamental value"
Isn't the answer is obvious? Any rational investor
If you don't think that the market and thus the share price will continue to trend downwards then sure. That is a valid argument. If you think the current price right now is the very lowest the share will go in the immediate future then great. Hold.
But if you think that the share price will continue to fall then why would you ever want to hold? I agree that the underlying fundamentals are strong. NZO has a large amount of cash that leaves it well positioned. But I believe that its share price will continue to downtrend, at least in the short term.
If you sold a few weeks ago and bought again right now, spending all the cash you received, you would be holding significantly more shares right now. Significantly more shares in a company you believe has great long term value.
bermuda
07-10-2008, 11:46 PM
NZO is very undervalued and will soar when the $US falls and the price of oil climbs.
corsairx
08-10-2008, 12:47 AM
Hope that you are right about that Bermuda. In the meantime I will be waiting for it to hit bottom.
Given that all share prices are being hit by a loss of confidence I don't think the rise, assuming there is a rise, will be so fast that I will miss it.
The Bull goes up the stairs and the Bear jumps out the window. Confidence isn't going to be rebuilt instantly, it will take time, and during that time the price of all shares will be held down.
Recently prices have been falling by around 2% a day. If oil starts to rise in price it will need to rise faster than these falls before it would make sense to buy. Even then it would only make sense if one felt that it would continue to not just rise but exceed the fall in general market prices. Of course at the moment the price of oil has also been falling.
the machine
08-10-2008, 01:49 AM
nzo square today on asx, however a 7c gap between buyer and seller implies market actually higher.
as regards other tui partners - awe & ppp both up in the end.
maybe caught up with market recovery after the RBA 1% interest rate - but underlining thing is all 3 oilers off their lows.
sure, the fall of the aud against greenback is also in play.
bloomberg shows WTI has increased by 4% and opec talking about reducing production
hopefully have seen the bottom of the fall.
get that rig cheap for tui in 2009 is the go!
M
Nitaa
08-10-2008, 10:20 AM
Well i feel like i have just been givwen one uppercut after another. If i had this much success in the music industry id be bigger than the Beatles. (1 hit after another)
On a more serious note, i think there are not too many on this forum that have expereiced what is going on here right now.
comparing '87 to '08 here are the 2 big differences. '87 (although in a global bubble) went WAM overnight like a lead ballon into a pond. The ripple effect kept kept speading for many years later. Now we are seeing the initial impact of the subprime mortgage which started as a small ripple and now looks like a small snowball gathering mass down a mountain.
sorry for being off topic but i think its qute fascinating even if my assets have deminished somewhat.
Always look on the bright side. The Dow is not likely to drop any more than another 9,500 or so points before she bottoms out
bermuda
08-10-2008, 10:56 AM
Well i feel like i have just been givwen one uppercut after another. If i had this much success in the music industry id be bigger than the Beatles. (1 hit after another)
On a more serious note, i think there are not too many on this forum that have expereiced what is going on here right now.
comparing '87 to '08 here are the 2 big differences. '87 (although in a global bubble) went WAM overnight like a lead ballon into a pond. The ripple effect kept kept speading for many years later. Now we are seeing the initial impact of the subprime mortgage which started as a small ripple and now looks like a small snowball gathering mass down a mountain.
sorry for being off topic but i think its qute fascinating even if my assets have deminished somewhat.
Always look on the bright side. The Dow is not likely to drop any more than another 9,500 or so points before she bottoms out
Hi Nita,
If she drops 9500 points she will be in negative territory!!! lol. These idiots on Fast Talk are forecasting a one day 1000 point rally. That I would like to see!! Meanwhile the world chews through another 86 million barrels a day and cancels alternative energy programs left, right and centre.
China and India will see us through....just.
Casa del Energia
08-10-2008, 12:55 PM
Hi Nita,
If she drops 9500 points she will be in negative territory!!! lol. These idiots on Fast Talk are forecasting a one day 1000 point rally. That I would like to see!! Meanwhile the world chews through another 86 million barrels a day and cancels alternative energy programs left, right and centre.
China and India will see us through....just.
Sorry, looks like China is off the map:
From the Guardian 6 Oct...
Analysts are watching oil demand from China -- which helped fuel a 6-year rally in commodities -- for signs the crisis is hitting consumption.
The world's No. 2 consumer will not import gasoline for the second straight month and instead export the fuel due to heavy domestic stockpiles and a dip in demand.
Major von Tempsky
08-10-2008, 01:19 PM
I can't believe that as recently as "yesterday" posters here are speculating on a big rise in oil.
How far out of touch can you get?
Substantial recession spells substantial drop in demand.
Popping of the commodities bubble and popping of inflation spells an end to speculators (except shorters) in oil.
Get real.
I can't believe that as recently as "yesterday" posters here are speculating on a big rise in oil.
How far out of touch can you get?
Substantial recession spells substantial drop in demand.
Popping of the commodities bubble and popping of inflation spells an end to speculators (except shorters) in oil.
Get real.
MVT this is rich coming from you-it was only a few years ago that you were extolling the virtues of telecom at over $6-and if I remember correctly were leveraging by buying partly paid shares .
I am sure everyone posting here knows that a recession reduces demand .It will also reduce production .
The world might stop buying latest tv/gadgets/phones . It isnt going to reduce using oil by much -people still will have to travel,heat homes,etc . Meanwhile the world is using up its finite resource .At sometime the tide will turn-nobody knows when and the price of oil will escalate again . In the meantime the price is still good in nz dollar terms we are currently making a profit before tax and royalties of $130 a barrel on over 4000 barrels a day-next year we have kupe onstream and PRC as well
Buyers of nzo are buying into a company with massive cash assets , spectacular daily income and profits which at current prices will more than double next year
Above all we have superb experienced management,great pr -chris roberts,and superb prospects
sideline
08-10-2008, 04:15 PM
I can't believe that as recently as "yesterday" posters here are speculating on a big rise in oil.
How far out of touch can you get?
Substantial recession spells substantial drop in demand.
Popping of the commodities bubble and popping of inflation spells an end to speculators (except shorters) in oil.
Get real.
MvT, what do you consider 'substantial' drop in demand? 10% worldwide? More???? Will people
leave their cars at home and walk from their suburbs to work? Decide not to heat their homes
in winter???
The EIA just forecast that the US oil demand in 2008 will decline only 4% vs 2007.
I think a drop (if any) in demand will be small in percentage terms and can be easily managed from
the supply side.
Why would OPEC sell two barrels of oil at USD50 each when they could instead sell one at USD100?
digger
08-10-2008, 05:44 PM
It is true that with hindsight it would have been far better to have sold at or near the top and be reentering about now,but that is a problem of buy and hold and it has to be weighted up against the times when the SP rises and sellers miss out.Sellers are being forced out now most probably to meet committments elsewhere . The SP is slowly approaching its cash backing with all other assets being valued at nil.
This is a very good time for the company as our cash pile's purchasing power is doubly increasing daily,both in simple dollars[600000]and most importantly what those dollars can now buy. That is why i emailed Chris yesterday to make sure the company had not already committed itself to a acquistion.The fact that they are still free to make that acquistion seems to be beyond the wisdon of the market and somewhat lost by too many on this site. When this hits home the SP will retrace its fall and it might be too late to hop aboard.
macduffy
08-10-2008, 05:56 PM
Not much point in emailing market sensitive questions to the company given the rules about continuous disclosure and keeping the market informed.
;)
Major von Tempsky
08-10-2008, 06:10 PM
Because the supply and demand is very finely balanced so that only a relatively small drop in demand induces a precipitous drop in oil prices.
Reflect that only Saudi Arabia has shown willingness to raise or lower and output and actually do it. Other members of OPEC announce cuts but don't actually carry them out because they can't afford to lose the revenue.
In a situation of dropping demand nearly all of OPEC (plus non OPEC members like Russia) pumps harder than ever to maintain their revenue.
Saudi Arabia in the first oil shocks in the 1970s was smart enough to take their foot off the industrialised world's throat because as Sheik Yamani observed, it would only be a matter of time (even though it would be years) before substitutes were found and then Saudi Arabia would be down the drain. That still continues to be their thinking.
Besides direct oil substitutes such as oil tar sands (Canada, but also the USA has lots which could be developed plus the Congo) there's oil from shale, oil from coal (which Germany and now South Africa have been very successful at), bio-fuel as in fuelling most of Brazil's present use, electric cars in 18 months, and all sorts of esoteric alternatives (such as oil produced by bacteria) presently being worked on which are economic at present prices which will hit the markets 3 to 5 years. Feeling scared yet? Saudi Arabia is. Hugo Chavez isn't, because he's as thick as 2 planks.
[QUOTE=macduffy;227125]Not much point in emailing market sensitive questions to the company given the rules about continuous disclosure and keeping the market informed.
Chris R is always helpful-for instance in response to an e-mail from me yesterday he confirmed the board has not yet made a decision on how to spend the $300m.
They are meeting next week and are studying all options carefully.
As Unicorn has stated the market is awash with nzo shares and as we all know nzo is awash with cash .
The obvious answer to me is to cancel shares . If 1 in 6 were cancelled at $1.50 it would only cost about $100m .
Good to see the kiwi down at 61 cents.
No nz company will benefit more from a falling exchange rate .
bermuda
08-10-2008, 07:10 PM
MVT,
The Saudi's have breathed a sigh of relief. No need now to go at full tilt. They were sure scared after Katrina. The commandered just about every rig available at that time to avert a world crisis. Think about it. That is a fact. Most of the the World's oilfields are in major decline. It is just as well demand is also in a big decline.
We need the world to focus on alternatives. This latest drop is absolutely killing investment in alternatives. A classic Catch 22.
Time for all of us to get real.
friedegg
08-10-2008, 07:26 PM
i dont want to see a share buyback/cancellation because in a market like this it really doesnt make the price go up,they say cash is king in this uncertainsey so i prefer if they held onto it and became an aggressive competitor in doing some outrageously good deals cause not many others have the cash or will be able to raise funds,so this bears the question-are the nzo management team an aggressive lot?i hope so
duncan macgregor
08-10-2008, 08:10 PM
It is true that with hindsight it would have been far better to have sold at or near the top and be reentering about now,but that is a problem of buy and hold and it has to be weighted up against the times when the SP rises and sellers miss out.Sellers are being forced out now most probably to meet committments elsewhere . The SP is slowly approaching its cash backing with all other assets being valued at nil.
This is a very good time for the company as our cash pile's purchasing power is doubly increasing daily,both in simple dollars[600000]and most importantly what those dollars can now buy. That is why i emailed Chris yesterday to make sure the company had not already committed itself to a acquistion.The fact that they are still free to make that acquistion seems to be beyond the wisdon of the market and somewhat lost by too many on this site. When this hits home the SP will retrace its fall and it might be too late to hop aboard. DIGGER it is also true that if you get so caught up in the hype you get caught out blinded to reality. The reality is the market mostly always gets to high, and drops to low for no logical reason. I have made myself very unpopular on this thread trying to save you lot from your fundamental long term style of investing. Five years ago the sp was higher for two lousy dividends since.
If you are blind to market sentiment you should at least have a stop loss in place to save you from your self. This crash was so obvious to see coming with you lot bragging about peak oil and the price of it that you were blind to the fact that TA was screaming out to sell. A lot of people have lost a lot of money with this company, who now are sitting pretty for some considerable time at your expence.
Learn from this experiance, and move forward, dont get caught like this again bleating on about how good the fundamentals are, or peak oil as if it was a good thing. I learned a lot about market sentiment in 1987. The 2008 crash will repeat in another twenty years or so, with investors from this era hopefully a bit wiser. Macdunk
Unicorn
08-10-2008, 08:28 PM
i dont want to see a share buyback/cancellation because in a market like this it really doesnt make the price go up,they say cash is king in this uncertainsey so i prefer if they held onto it and became an aggressive competitor in doing some outrageously good deals cause not many others have the cash or will be able to raise funds,so this bears the question-are the nzo management team an aggressive lot?i hope so
I disagree.
I think a buyback would be good, now that the share price has become disconnected from reality. If 140M shares were purchased at 120c, effectively reversing the NZOODs, the company would potentially end up better off by $35M (through a buyback at less than the issue price). Also risk would be greatly reduced, and dilution would be much lower. Not that there would be that many sellers at 120c, but the maths is interesting and it would shore up the plummeting share price.
The current situation is rather strange. Market cap is now $453M. Cash is perhaps $285M, being 63% of market cap. The PRC holding has a market value of about $125M. So the remainder of the company, including tax credits, is valued by the market at $43M. Market cap fell by $19M today. This is well in excess of a 30% reduction in the value of the remainder of Tui (> 4M barrels) and Kupe! On a day when the NZ Dollar fell by 2% and oil was down 5% (Tapis) or up 2% (WTI). At the current daily decline in share price, Kupe and Tui will probably be valued as liabilities by the end of the week!
The company needs to act to minimise unnecessary volatility in the share price, or it will become a plaything for speculators rather than investors. That will greatly erode the value of the company over time. The company should not continue to lose value for its shareholders at a time when Tui is producing brilliantly and oil price are still close to NZ $140 a barrel. It needs to take action, before it loses shareholder support.
macduffy
08-10-2008, 08:28 PM
Chris R is always helpful-for instance in response to an e-mail from me yesterday he confirmed the board has not yet made a decision on how to spend the $300m. Quote.
The time to take notice is when you don't get a reply to your e-mail. But then, that could just mean that he's too busy!
;)
macduffy
08-10-2008, 08:33 PM
The company needs to act to minimise unnecessary volatility in the share price, or it will become a plaything for speculators rather than investors. Quote.
Oil and gas companies by the very nature of their business will always attract speculators. Not a lot that management can do about that!
;)
friedegg
08-10-2008, 08:43 PM
if they did a buy back just so short of time from an option conversion they can only be seen as pussys ie they dont know how to grow!!
even though the sp sucks atm they are in a prime position to take advantage of other companies,tennants etc
Unicorn
08-10-2008, 08:50 PM
Oil and gas companies by the very nature of their business will always attract speculators. Not a lot that management can do about that!
;)
Oil and gas explorers yes, significant oil and gas producers no nearly so much. NZO is now a producer, with very strong income. But it still seems to be categorised as a junior explorer.
Unless something is done, there is a significant possibility that they may need to front up at the AGM and report that during a year of exceptional oil prices, fantastic production from Tui, enormous increases in reserves, and good progress with other projects they have delivered no material value increase to their shareholders.
i dont want to see a share buyback/cancellation because in a market like this it really doesnt make the price go up,they say cash is king in this uncertainsey so i prefer if they held onto it and became an aggressive competitor in doing some outrageously good deals cause not many others have the cash or will be able to raise funds,so this bears the question-are the nzo management team an aggressive lot?i hope so
I think you are wrong in your assumption that a sharebuyback/cancellation would not send the price up for some many reasons
1)particularly in this kind of market it would reduce the number of margin traders and others needing cash being forced to sell below nta.
2) It reduces the number of shares on the market -nzo is awash with excess shares after the option conversion
3)Some holders of nzo-me included-would use some of the cash to buy more nzo shares.
4)It would demonstrate that the board is wise ,pragmatic and sufficiently flexible enough to change its plans to suit current economic conditions
5)It reduces the need for the company to buy overseas assets--I have been a shareholder in some many companies where overseas assets turn to custard --telecom air nz brierly ttp to name a few .
6)I am only suggesting about a third of the cash be returned-2/3 is still available for investments . Best not to put all ones eggs in one basket
7)Cash is king-in current conditions the only absolute safe place is in one own pockets
8)Tui has proved bigger than expected-Kupe looks the same-so less need to find further resources .With oil prices dropping so fast there is less urgency to increase reserves .
9)NZO has great cashflow from tui to meet all current needs-and kupe and prc will add to this soon .
macduffy
08-10-2008, 08:57 PM
Hi Unicorn.
Take your point that NZO should be treated more as a producer and less as an explorer. Part of the problem is that they are one of a very few " speculative" shares on the NZX and therefore attract a disproportionate share of speculative attention.
friedegg
08-10-2008, 09:03 PM
cdu in aus are doing a share buyback atm,thier price is soaring
Unicorn
08-10-2008, 09:15 PM
cdu in aus are doing a share buyback atm,thier price is soaring
NZO should not do a buyback simply to increase the share price. They should do it to increase shareholder value by buying something worthwhile, very cheaply. NZO shares at present fit that criteria. Any buyback should only be while the share price remained very low - preferably around 120c, but not more than 140c.
friedegg
08-10-2008, 09:21 PM
NZO should not do a buyback simply to increase the share price. They should do it to increase shareholder value by buying something worthwhile, very cheaply. NZO shares at present fit that criteria. Any buyback should only be while the share price remained very low - preferably around 120c, but not more than 140c.
doesnt matter,world markets and oil are plummetting again tonight so maybe a lot more tomorrow will run,cause when you think about it who is going or more importantly who can buy atm,surely not many funds as theyre hammered and good old mums and dads have thier money held up in collapsed finance instos
Rif-Raf
08-10-2008, 09:47 PM
NZO should not do a buyback simply to increase the share price. They should do it to increase shareholder value by buying something worthwhile, very cheaply. NZO shares at present fit that criteria. Any buyback should only be while the share price remained very low - preferably around 120c, but not more than 140c.
Agree 100%
Buying at say 120 is value accretion as it is a damn good investment. The're's no deal risk, no need for due diligence, legals fees etc. Putting a floor on the SP just happens to be the bonus outcome.
digger
08-10-2008, 10:05 PM
Many interesting comments about share buy back.My origional thoughts was that i was against it now after reading all your comments twice i have moved to neutral. Currently we all know that the company is looking at many deals of a lifetime as we have or soon will have approx 300 million.My thinking is that the company should be sure to include a buy back as one of many considerations.Remember they along have seen all the options before them and if there are some simply better than a buy back then go for the best one.I think that the directors and management at a time like this are best to focus what is best and not just go for short term fixes. Please remember if we can long term focus at this time we will be one of the few companies able to make decisions in this manner and thereby have the field largely to ourselves.So lets keep it in mind that the company can now pick and chose and all we should do is give them one more choice,but no pressure to aid the current SP unless it is in fact the best buy in town.
Digger
the machine
08-10-2008, 11:16 PM
take the plunge and buy a heap of awe and ppp I say - both companies with no debt and producing assets [awe the bigger of course]
say $50m on awe and another $20m on ppp - without triggering takeover triggers-something like 19.999% on market purchase [can be corrected onthe percentage though]
awe @ what is it au$2.20 - what a joke!
M
take the plunge and buy a heap of awe and ppp I say - both companies with no debt and producing assets [awe the bigger of course]
say $50m on awe and another $20m on ppp - without triggering takeover triggers-something like 19.999% on market purchase [can be corrected onthe percentage though]
awe @ what is it au$2.20 - what a joke!
M
The Aussie dollar has plummeted relative to the kiwi dollar so things are looking very nice if NZO wants to invest there.
Perhaps they should hedge against the fall in oil prices. Virgin Blue anyone :D?
Nitaa
09-10-2008, 12:46 AM
NZO should not do a buyback simply to increase the share price. They should do it to increase shareholder value by buying something worthwhile, very cheaply. NZO shares at present fit that criteria. Any buyback should only be while the share price remained very low - preferably around 120c, but not more than 140c.I am glad you posted this thread as i didnt agree with your prior one about nzo conduxcting a share buy back.
IMO, a share buy back will of course help very short term but not when the dust settles should the markets continue their overall decline. The share buy back is to help create value to the shareholders. If nzo were to buy back say 30m shares it could effectively be gobbled up by instos looking for an exist. In the mean time mum and dad investors may end up dragging the price down. Many permentations but until economic fundamentals improve i i would be dead against a share buy back at present.
Nitaa
09-10-2008, 12:57 AM
take the plunge and buy a heap of awe and ppp I say - both companies with no debt and producing assets [awe the bigger of course]
say $50m on awe and another $20m on ppp - without triggering takeover triggers-something like 19.999% on market purchase [can be corrected onthe percentage though]
awe @ what is it au$2.20 - what a joke!
Mi agree. Looks great value at the moment. however there is way too much uncertaintity and oil could (not will) colapse a lot more than we have seen. perhaps sub $30 is quite possible.
Although i am 100% against a share buy back i think nzo should seriously look at companies that have exceptional strong balance sheets as long as there are big instos depserate to sell. I still feel that there
There will may many great and potential companies that will go belly up bwecaused they have too much debt. Possibly we could see a third of the aus and nzx stock exchange dissapeared and gone bankrupt at this rate with 2 years. However that is all the doom and gloom. What i hope to see is a controlled, more regulated and coordinated glable effort to resolve this crisis. It may take some genius will a simple idea to reverse this trend. Time will tell
sideline
09-10-2008, 01:30 AM
...........................and oil could (not will) colapse a lot more than we have seen. perhaps sub $30 is quite possible.
HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
Sorry, I just had to laugh about this statement.
the machine
09-10-2008, 01:45 AM
this is an expensive delay for Maari or Ensco
Maari drilling still waiting on weather
(Wednesday, 8 October 2008)
THE sometimes wild New Zealand weather is still preventing the start of development drilling of the Maari oil project off Taranaki – two months after Kupe operator Origin Energy released the Ensco 107 jack-up rig to Maari operator OMV.
Full Story...
Nitaa
09-10-2008, 02:23 AM
HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
Sorry, I just had to laugh about this statement.Why? I think it is very possible if the meltdown continues. Only have to look at what happened during the great depression.
I beleive you are laughing because of my statement that oil cannot possibly reach sub $30. In saying that i would not discount oil going $200 plus in no time. This is new teritory for me i welcome your views that differ from mine. enlighten me
Bixbite
09-10-2008, 02:27 AM
Although i am 100% against a share buy back i think nzo should seriously look at companies that have exceptional strong balance sheets as long as there are big instos depserate to sell. I still feel that there
Partly agree with you Nita.
When NZO looks for potential companies, it also has to protect itself not to be knocked.
You do know that some of the sellers were not desperate. They were deliberate.
.
sideline
09-10-2008, 03:12 AM
Why? I think it is very possible if the meltdown continues. Only have to look at what happened during the great depression.
I beleive you are laughing because of my statement that oil cannot possibly reach sub $30. In saying that i would not discount oil going $200 plus in no time. This is new teritory for me i welcome your views that differ from mine. enlighten me
The great depression happened at the end of the 1920s - cars had only just begun to be mass produced
and people were essentially still mostly living within walking distance of their daily travel requirement, be it
work or shopping or rely on horses. They could easily go back to live without cars then. Could they do this today???
digger
09-10-2008, 07:42 AM
OK i have slep on it and regarding a share buy back have remembered that in decision making we should never make what would be a permanent decision based on short term considerations.With respect to money this is especially most important.So lets all cool it and wait this thing out.Perhaps rather than trying to guess the bottom we should delay action until the powers that be stabilise the situation.
I would like to give my support to the company at this stressful time reminding them that the buying power of our cash currently increasing daily and that the nil action decision at this moment in time may well turn out to be the best path forward.
Cheers Digger
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