NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[boysy]

it would be positive if nzo did have the 10 % of tui that is ppps but for that to happen they need to take over ppp and they have yet to signal whether this is going to happen. The market is waiting for nzo next move clearly if they can get ppp cheaply the market will react positively. the market hates uncertainlty and nzo isnt helping clarifying its keeping people guessing hence not much action on what should of seen some decent gains like other oilers.

[rotweiller]

Our friend "Savannah" has been anchored for a few days in Tasman Bay before loading at "Umuroa" on Jan 29th.
Freighting certainly appears quiet at this time.
Cheers

[fish]

There has to be a time soon when the market realizes that oil is now over $40pb. and with the dollar falling prompt them into pushing the share price up. Picked up some more at 1.22.

Suspect the impending quarterly financials will make the market wake up.
NZO looks so good to me with the falling NZ dollar and Tapis price picking up-a further drop in interest rates next week should also help investors steer money back into shares-
Half, 2009
Tuesday, January 20, 2009

In a statement that has made the whole of the oil industry sit-up and take notice, Goldman Sachs Group commodity analyst, Jeffrey Currie, said that he expects a "swift and violent rebound" in energy prices in the second half of 2009.

Such a positive forecast for oil prices comes as a bit of surprise at a time when crude has recently reached its nadir – falling to $32.40 in mid-December. I suppose looking at it from the angle that prices have as-good-as bottomed-out, and that the only way is quite literally up, then Currie's words appear altogether a more percentages calculation than a brave utterance.

The analyst aid that he expects prices to double, rising to $65 a barrel by the end of the year. There is scope for a “new bull market” in oil, he added.

Speaking at a conference, in London, on Monday Currie also commented that world oil demand is likely to fall by about 1.6 million barrels a day in 2009. This is a figure significantly larger than that of the reduction expected by the International Energy Agency (IEA), which forecast, on Friday, a decrease of about 0.5 million barrels per day (bpd), equivalent to a 0.6%, over the coming year.

Goldman Sachs, the bank with the biggest share in commodities and energy markets, has been among the most bullish forecasters of the oil price. It had last year predicted a crude oil spike to $200 a barrel; a figure which when predicted would have been deemed almost in comprehensible, but around July would have seemed a distinct possibility.

The highly-revered Currie pointed to supply cuts from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and potential shut-ins of non-OPEC supply as important factors that could ultimately spur a dramatic rebound in prices.

A hotly contested issue when assessing the impact of OPEC's cuts is the cartel's ability to implement its own quotas across all member nations – something the Goldman Sachs analyst sees as likely to get around 75% compliance. Working from this assumption with its cumulative supply cut of 4.2 million bpd falling demand would put pressure on non-OPEC producers to shut down operations.

“If you see cuts in non-OPEC production you could have seen the bottom,” said Currie.

On the demand side, Goldman has estimated the downturn in the global economy would mean an even sharper drop in oil demand of an estimated 1.7 million bpd in 2009.

In 2008 demand fell predominantly in industrialised countries, this year emerging markets such as China and the Middle East are expected to join as similar statistics.

But of course, true-to-form Goldman remains bullish on oil for the longer term.

“The long-term story is that the imbalances [in the market] haven't changed and the market will run into significant problems if there is a rebound in demand,” added Currie.

[flyingmariner]

Inventories came out today and we are or will be drowning in oil in 90 days. So what does that bode for oil companies and NZO in particular?
There is one heck of a slow down in the US with Microsoft laying off 4500 and these are the big name companies let alone small business so demand for gasoline is falling etc. etc.
Will this affect the NZO SP which seems to be in a trading range and holds !.20 I'm waiting for it to go to 1.15 - 117 and then will jump in as I doubt it will go lower.
There is a nasty low going to happen on the DOW and S & P which will drive down NZX and ASX briefly but who knows when that will be, next week, next month or next quarter.
I don't pay any attention to what Goldman Sachs analysts come out with, they have a vested interest in talking up the price as GS has bought enormous numbers of contracts and owns oil infrastructure in the US and besides any fool can come out and say oil will be higher in a years time.
So back to my question will $30 oil have any affect on the NZO SP ?

[arjay]

Inventories came out today and we are or will be drowning in oil in 90 days. So what does that bode for oil companies and NZO in particular?
There is one heck of a slow down in the US with Microsoft laying off 4500 and these are the big name companies let alone small business so demand for gasoline is falling etc. etc.
Will this affect the NZO SP which seems to be in a trading range and holds !.20 I'm waiting for it to go to 1.15 - 117 and then will jump in as I doubt it will go lower.
There is a nasty low going to happen on the DOW and S & P which will drive down NZX and ASX briefly but who knows when that will be, next week, next month or next quarter.
I don't pay any attention to what Goldman Sachs analysts come out with, they have a vested interest in talking up the price as GS has bought enormous numbers of contracts and owns oil infrastructure in the US and besides any fool can come out and say oil will be higher in a years time.
So back to my question will $30 oil have any affect on the NZO SP ?


NZO has huge cash reserves. If it continues to reward shareholders with dividends worth more than what the bank will return on $1.25, why should the SP drop any lower?

[fish]

Inventories came out today and we are or will be drowning in oil in 90 days.
So back to my question will $30 oil have any affect on the NZO SP ?

my answer-hypothetical and unlikely .
Tapis oil price as I type is about nz $85-production cost around $15
nzo is making good money in this recession.
With over $200 million in banks-a lot in us ,additional cash will be rolling in from Kupe soon and who knows what prc profit will be -but be sure it will make a profit as its top quality highly valued coking coal .
I dont believe Tapis will fall much and I do expect the price to rise later in the year .

?when will the market wake up to the success story of nzo-?next week with the financial results-especially if it pays a healthy special dividend .
The sp will rise when rationality takes over from fear-NZO is likely to be the best performing share in nz-maybe this year-maybe next-it will almost certainly have the highest p/e ratio this year .

[Nitaa]

Personally i dont expect a special divvy nor do i want one. This is a golden opportunity to preserve cash to buy undervalued assets. NZO can pay an annual divvy which we now expect for the next 15 years or so.

[neopole]

if NZO paid a special divi in the near future, it would certainly lift the sp, and help defend the company from a hostile take over. as it is...... with NZO going for PPP and its wad of cash, and NZO realatively cheap, someone else can swoop on NZO and grab ALL the cash. so a higher sp for NZO is a good thing, and the easiest way to lift it is to give a divi, infact giving a divi in this enviroment will open the eyes to alot of investors that would normally steer clear of oilers or arent aware of NZO's stellar future.

[Nitaa]

Neopole. I am not convinced a divvy guarentees an increase in SP. Its all relative to me. What is important is whats best for the shareholders (with a long term view in mind). Right now NZO is getting very cash rich, drilling rig availablity shoulfd become alot more accessable and the cost much better than 6 months ago.

[shasta]

Neopole. I am not convinced a divvy guarentees an increase in SP. Its all relative to me. What is important is whats best for the shareholders (with a long term view in mind). Right now NZO is getting very cash rich, drilling rig availablity shoulfd become alot more accessable and the cost much better than 6 months ago.

Nita's right, the SP will drop off ex dividend & you will have less cash in the pile.

No good paying out dividends & finding you need to go back to shareholders to fund an acquistion & further dilluting existing holders!

[Crypto Crude]

I totally agree Shasta... Soon it is time to build on all good that has been done so far, through re-investing those oil dollars, back into making more oil dollars...

This recession has presented quite probably the best time to invest in the oil industry ever...
With oil in a few years going to breakout...


any fool can come out and say oil will be higher in a years time.
there you go buddy... I just said it... hehehe...

The Share price will run at least one bagger off what the company already has (kupe, Tui, Pike)... and then any reinvestment is returns on top of that....
:cool:
.^sc

[the machine]

as previously stated, have doubts about a half year dividend as day by day profits since october would hardly cover the overheads of running nzo and at same time fund kupe development costs -project only 85% complete at last report.

nzo could have spent up to nz$30m on kupe since october when poo crashed.

quarterly report due on 30th will update completion percentage of course.

m

[blockhead]

Blockheads eyes always seem to see positive reports rather than the negative, ostrich syndrome I guess.





Oil rises as Opec output reduced

Opec agreed last month to cut output by 2.2m barrels a day
Oil prices have risen as hopes that the oil cartel Opec is complying with its production cuts outweigh new gloomy economic news.

US light crude added $2.80 to $46.47 a barrel. London Brent rose $2.98 to $48.37 a barrel.

Oil consultant Petrologistics estimated Opec production would fall by 1.55m barrels per day in January.

In December, the cartel agreed to cut output by 2.2m barrels a day as prices fell by more than $100 since July.

"I think this [Friday's rise] represents anticipation that the Opec production cuts are really happening after the Petrologistics estimates on January OPEC production," said energy analyst Tim Evans at Citi Futures Perspective.

"It seems that some of the strength [in oil prices] has come as part of a wider commodities rally," said Peter Beutel, president of Cameron Hanover.

Forecasts for cold weather in the US Midwest and the Northeast also supported heating oil prices, as the region is one of the biggest heating oil markets.

Oil prices were as low as $35 a barrel last week.

Global prices have fallen sharply since last summer as demand has weakened as a result of the economic slowdown.

[fish]

[QUOTE=blockhead;240978]Blockheads eyes always seem to see positive reports rather than the negative, ostrich syndrome I guess.




More positives-reflected in good rise in sp today

nz dollar still falling
tapis up
PRC-looking very long-term with paparoa seams much thicker than last drill 20 yrs ago

and I believe the 2nd quarter results will be better than most expect

[Bob C]

Its heating up across the Tasman:

NZO
27/01/2009
S/HOLDER

REL: 1725 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited

S/HOLDER: NZO: PPP SHARHOLDER LETTER - 22 January 2009

Dear Shareholder

I am writing to you to make sure that you are fully informed regarding the
acquisition by New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited (NZOG) in December 2008 of an
interest of approximately 15% in the share capital of your Company at prices
of up to A$0.30 per share, on the share markets in New Zealand and Australia.

You should also be aware that on 15 January 2009, NZOG announced receipt of
Foreign Investment Review Board approval to acquire 19.99% of Pan Pacific
Petroleum NL (Pan Pacific) and (subject
to the provisions of the Corporations Law governing takeover offers) up to
100% of your Company.

NZOG stated at that time that, in due course, it would assess its position to
determine what, if any, further steps might be taken.
These moves by NZOG may lead to a takeover bid for Pan Pacific. Shareholders
can be assured that if a bid is made, Directors w
ill take all available steps
on your behalf to ensure that a change
in control of the Company only occurs if, and when, all Pan Pacific
shareholders receive fair value for their shares.
In the event of a bid being made by NZOG or any other party, your board
strongly advises Pan Pacific shareholders to take no action until receipt of
further advice from your Directors; all communications from the bidder and
its advisers should be treated in a similar fashion.

Shareholders will be continuously supplied by the Company with up to date
information during the course of any bid.

In the event of a bid, shareholders will have access to a full and completely
independent assessment of the value of Pan Pacific's assets and of the merits
of the offer which constitutes the bid. However, at this stage and
particularly since Pan Pacific's shares have risen above the prices paid by
NZOG
during its initial acquisitions, I would suggest that shareholders carefully
consider the following items of impor
tance before accepting on market offers
for their shares:

- Your Board does not believe that the current stockmarket price of a Pan
Pacific share reflects its underlying asset value. If a bid is made,
Directors will commission an independent expert to assess the value of the
Company's shares and whether the bid is fair and reasonable.

- Preliminary arrangements have been made regarding the appointment of these
advisers so that this important expert advice will be available to
shareholders as early as possible; The Company remains broadly on track to
achieve a profit of about A$50 million for the year

- to 30 June 2009, given the higher prices earlier in the year, and assuming
an average oil price of US$50 per barrel (bbl) and an exchange rate of
A$1:US$0.65 for the remainder of the financial year;

- There is no doubt that Pan Pacific has an exceptional and valuable asset in
its 10% interest in the Tui Area Oil Fields (Tui), reflecting not only the
forward value of its oil reserves
of around 3 MMbbls, but also the upside
potential of the exploration prospects in the area, some of which are planned

to be drill tested in calendar year 2009. Any new discoveries will benefit
from production through the existing Tui Area facilities;

Pan Pacific currently has no debt and substantial cash reserves. At 31
December 2008, the Company's cash reserves (after conversion to A$s) were
approximately $150 million. This excludes
US$7 million deposited as collateral to support Tui lease arrangements;

- Cash at bank alone presently represents around A$0.26 cents per share;

- Cash reserves will grow to around A$165 million by 30 June 2009, assuming
an average oil price of US$50/bbl and A$1:US$0.65, unless Pan Pacific makes a
significant acquisition in the balance of this financial year;

- Although profits from Tui production will fall in future years,
shareholders should not lose sight of their potential. Assuming future oil
prices at current or higher levels, cash flow will n
evertheless be
substantial and will form the basis of Pan Pacific's continuing activities in
the oil and gas sector; it is its current cash and future cash flow which
makes your Company attractive to others;

- The Company also has upside potential in its other exploration interests in
the Taranaki Basin, New Zealand, and also the Carnarvon Basin, Australia.

- Your Board is actively considering several attractive potential acquisition
opportunities in the oil and gas business as part of its growth strategy. Pan
Pacific's strong cash position is a substantial competitive advantage given
current global credit constraints;

- Pan Pacific has appointed Origin Securities Pty Limited to assist with an
assessment of the Company's assets and in the formulation of a strategy to
maximise value for shareholders.
Additionally, Allens Arthur Robinson has been appointed as legal adviser.
These steps are being taken to ensure that your Company is fully prepared if
a bid or any other proposal for it
s issued
capital eventuates from whatever source.

Shareholders can be assured that your Directors will continue to keep them
fully informed.

This letter is written without the knowledge or consent of your Director, Mr
R A Radford, who in accordance with protocols set up with Mr Radford's
consent after NZOG announced its initial share
acquisitions, is excluded from publications of this nature to ensure that no
issues of conflict of interest occur. Mr Radford is also Chairman of NZOG.

Neil Tomkinson
Chairman
Reserves estimates are based on information provided by the operator,
Australian Worldwide Exploration Limited.
For further information, please contact:
Tom Prudence Frank Mattiussi
Chief Executive Officer Managing Director
Pan Pacific Petroleum Origin Securities
+61 2 9957 2177 +61 2 9241 7600
Pan Pacific Petroleum NL ACN 000 749 799 Level 2, 123 Walker Street, North
Sydney 2060, Australia
Telephone: +61 2 9957 2177 Facsimile: +61 2 9925 0564 Website:
www.panpacpetroleum.com.
au
End CA:00175438 For:NZO Type:S/HOLDER Time:2009-01-27:17:26:03

[Mr Tommy]

1. Neil Tomkinson had 47 million shares at the last annual report, do you really think he has the shareholders interests at heart? Great Tui advert there.
2. PPP has been stagnent for years, their efforts have amounted to 25c shareprice before the NZO 'partial' takeover so its a bit of a joke to now say how undervalued they are
3. Radford should step down to ensure no conflict, he has 4.5m PPP shares at last report, plus director of both companies.

[shasta]

1. Neil Tomkinson had 47 million shares at the last annual report, do you really think he has the shareholders interests at heart? Great Tui advert there.
2. PPP has been stagnent for years, their efforts have amounted to 25c shareprice before the NZO 'partial' takeover so its a bit of a joke to now say how undervalued they are
3. Radford should step down to ensure no conflict, he has 4.5m PPP shares at last report, plus director of both companies.

Your dead right there, PPP's management have had there snouts in the trough for so long, they've had to surface for air!

Whilst urging shareholders to "hold out", they will continue to line there own pockets in the meantime whilst waiting for "their price" to sell.

NZO would be a friendly takeover & the best bet for them IMO.

[Nitaa]

I really hope i am wrong here but these guys like TR, AT & NT are too close for my liking. Although i am both a NZO & PPP shareholder I will have a lingerting doubt about the ethics that take place. In saying that the fact of the matter is if i dont like it then i dont have to be a shareholder.

How is this going to play out? NZO WILL make a formal offer to PPP. The big stakeholders like AT and NT are the power brokers and are going to do well. I suspect PPP holders wont cry too much either.

What happens to TR. Quite frankly i suspect something will happen by years end and with NZO. TR MUST be looking for an exit strategy as he must be now thinking its time to reap the fruit. I cannot help but thinking that AWE is a logical choice for a play on NZO but will probably not want Pike. So does this mean PRC with be sold to the Indians. The econmic downturn must have changed the goalposts for TR and NZO but there will be some sort of exit stratergy for TR.

[digger]

I really hope i am wrong here but these guys like TR, AT & NT are too close for my liking. Although i am both a NZO & PPP shareholder I will have a lingerting doubt about the ethics that take place. In saying that the fact of the matter is if i dont like it then i dont have to be a shareholder.

How is this going to play out? NZO WILL make a formal offer to PPP. The big stakeholders like AT and NT are the power brokers and are going to do well. I suspect PPP holders wont cry too much either.

What happens to TR. Quite frankly i suspect something will happen by years end and with NZO. TR MUST be looking for an exit strategy as he must be now thinking its time to reap the fruit. I cannot help but thinking that AWE is a logical choice for a play on NZO but will probably not want Pike. So does this mean PRC with be sold to the Indians. The econmic downturn must have changed the goalposts for TR and NZO but there will be some sort of exit stratergy for TR.

I have been posting about the benefits of NZO taking over PPP so long now that even to me it sounds like a stuck record.Now that it sort of looks like it might happen the usual kick yourself for not stocking up start to appear.The fact that a lot of directors have shares is a give away to a takeover,yet it has been in frount of us all for many years.
Last year i emailed the company to make sure a easy explaination was in the half report about the hedgying policy. It seemed a bit consertive at the time but with the fall in oil has been to PPP advantage.Also i wondered in the last 12 months why PPP had not paid a dividend.Looks like that might have been to raise the cash value of the share,but then that in its self has strengthen the likelyhood of it getting taken out.So all in all it now looks good time for NZO to make a move before the world comes out of its finanical crises.A healthy scrip offer would be appreciated NZO.
Those who have not positioned themselves with some PPP holdings will just have to cry in their beer,unless they are also NZO holders in which case they will get a good company cheap in the middle of a slump.
We now just have to wait for action one way or another.
Digger

[Corporate]

I have been posting about the benefits of NZO taking over PPP so long now that even to me it sounds like a stuck record.Now that it sort of looks like it might happen the usual kick yourself for not stocking up start to appear.The fact that a lot of directors have shares is a give away to a takeover,yet it has been in frount of us all for many years.
Last year i emailed the company to make sure a easy explaination was in the half report about the hedgying policy. It seemed a bit consertive at the time but with the fall in oil has been to PPP advantage.Also i wondered in the last 12 months why PPP had not paid a dividend.Looks like that might have been to raise the cash value of the share,but then that in its self has strengthen the likelyhood of it getting taken out.So all in all it now looks good time for NZO to make a move before the world comes out of its finanical crises.A healthy scrip offer would be appreciated NZO.
Those who have not positioned themselves with some PPP holdings will just have to cry in their beer,unless they are also NZO holders in which case they will get a good company cheap in the middle of a slump.


We now just have to wait for action one way or another.
Digger

Digger i to went on an on about NZO buying PPP. Yet did not stock up. Won't make that mistake again.

[the machine]

Also i wondered in the last 12 months why PPP had not paid a dividend.Looks like that might have been to raise the cash value of the share,but then that in its self has strengthen the likelyhood of it getting taken out.Digger

digger, understand ppp unable claim any expenses in australia, thus no franked dividends would not be very attractive to shareholders.

M

[shasta]

I have been posting about the benefits of NZO taking over PPP so long now that even to me it sounds like a stuck record.Now that it sort of looks like it might happen the usual kick yourself for not stocking up start to appear.The fact that a lot of directors have shares is a give away to a takeover,yet it has been in frount of us all for many years.
Last year i emailed the company to make sure a easy explaination was in the half report about the hedgying policy. It seemed a bit consertive at the time but with the fall in oil has been to PPP advantage.Also i wondered in the last 12 months why PPP had not paid a dividend.Looks like that might have been to raise the cash value of the share,but then that in its self has strengthen the likelyhood of it getting taken out.So all in all it now looks good time for NZO to make a move before the world comes out of its finanical crises.A healthy scrip offer would be appreciated NZO.
Those who have not positioned themselves with some PPP holdings will just have to cry in their beer,unless they are also NZO holders in which case they will get a good company cheap in the middle of a slump.
We now just have to wait for action one way or another.
Digger

I hope NZO walk away if PPP's greedy Board/Management get to difficult.

I prefer NZO to PPP as:

1. They have ensured they have at least 15 - 20 years steady revenue stream, by taking on the Kupe project, plus spinning off PRC, which will eventually net NZO a nice capital return, perhaps to fund an acquistion down the track?

2. NZO will net a tidy profit if someone else wants to T/O PPP, by way of there blocking stake. (You need 90.01% control to fully access the cash pile)

3. NZO have been proactive & have looked to the future with there executive appointments, ie newblood to progess the company.

4. Paying dividends (not that i'm a fan of them doing this), but the institutions sure like it, hence the likes of ACC on the register.

5. Learning from past mistakes, NZO's reputation of old is improving yet, PPP's languishes & isn't helped by the "snouts in the trough" look & feel to it, as if the "old school" Management are running it for themselves.

Having held both NZO & PPP previously, & after running BPT through the DD process again, i've decided NZO has to be my O&G company :cool:

[bermuda]

Hi Digger,
You and I know that NZO take PPP out. This has stood out like a sore thumb for years.

When are you going to have that big BBQ? I will come to that but cant make the Auckland Shareholders meeting.

[the machine]

any t/o offer by nzo for ppp has to be a firstup knockout offer

Say au 75c cash or 4 nzo share for every 5 ppp share should do it - the later of course preserving the pile of cash which is all to critical in these opportunistic times.

as a holder of both, we lean towards this type of offer even though it dilutes nzo

M

[digger]

any t/o offer by nzo for ppp has to be a firstup knockout offer

Say au 75c cash or 4 nzo share for every 5 ppp share should do it - the later of course preserving the pile of cash which is all to critical in these opportunistic times.

as a holder of both, we lean towards this type of offer even though it dilutes nzo

M

Your scrib offer is a bit rich Machine.Anything like 4 nzo for 5 ppp will make a holder of nzo green with envy. In hindsight it would certainly underline the route to holding NZO shares is by first holding them in PPP. I had thought a 1 nzo share for 2 ppp would probably be about fair,or on current value giving PPP holders 65 cents a share. Your scrib offer values them at 104 which is toooo much.

[micket]

just some facts to dispute shastas post .AT and NT have taken minimal directors fees. Same cant be said of TR but he is driving the train. AT bought nzo share stake at around 25c,so should be expecting a reasonable premium. I sold out of nzo at the last option time because I never liked Pike and increased my ppp with a view to a long term hold, 10years, when I expected them to be safely worth $1 plus. I will be qiute happy to sell to nzo at a substantial price but eqally happy if they walk away and leaves us ppp ers to steadily accumulate wealth.By the way I am glad when the original Tui exploration well was drilled that Coaster never completed Plugged and Abandoned when full depth was reached and there was no announcement. Have the feeling it might have jinxed the whole project. Got the feeling there is a lot more oil to come in this area.

[digger]

Hi Digger,
You and I know that NZO take PPP out. This has stood out like a sore thumb for years.

When are you going to have that big BBQ? I will come to that but cant make the Auckland Shareholders meeting.

Hi bermuda,

My BBQ and everything else has been held up by one off problems. Wanted it in November but Denise said wait until deck was made. Fair enough. In early Dec she hurt her sciatic nerve and has been laid up every since. Had to cancel a holiday to Hong Kong and also she will not be able to take part in the Otago Trail Bike Ride at end of February.Has fainted twice trying to do two much from pain. Christ after 40 years of marrage i have had to learn how to cook bacon and eggs,take the washing out and still trying to avoid the vacumn cleaner. Has had a epidural in the back and may yet require an operation.Fortunally i had a similiar Sciatic problem 6 years ago so know something about it.
We had a small get together of about 20 people here on the 18 for the bike riders and of coa-rse wife did more than she should have and rehurt herself and has paid for it since. So i think by now you see the problem. Denise says wait until middle of march as by then she might be right. Christ if it takes that long she will have read every book in the Hamilton library twice and i will be able to flip a cooking egg without breaking the yoke.
So we have decide to put the BBQ down for saturday 07 March.Shame about the delay as so much is now happening with the company to talk about.By then PPP will be a past event and with the next takeover coming on stream and Kupe earning getting close enought to begin lifting the SP.
Cheers i now have to go and make breakfast. Oh for the good old days when i just got called to breakfast.Now lets see if this morning i can get it right.Bacon in first half cooked before breaking in eggs.And remember to not just put eggs on bench before hand as it is slopped and they roll off and hit floor.Well at least the positive side is that new skills are good for the brain as only learning new skills create more neuron brain connections.
Cheers again have to go.
Digger

[Hoop]

Hi bermuda,

My BBQ and everything else has been held up by one off problems. Wanted it in November but Denise said wait until deck was made. Fair enough. In early Dec she hurt her sciatic nerve and has been laid up every since. Had to cancel a holiday to Hong Kong and also she will not be able to take part in the Otago Trail Bike Ride at end of February.Has fainted twice trying to do two much from pain. Christ after 40 years of marrage i have had to learn how to cook bacon and eggs,take the washing out and still trying to avoid the vacumn cleaner. Has had a epidural in the back and may yet require an operation.Fortunally i had a similiar Sciatic problem 6 years ago so know something about it.
We had a small get together of about 20 people here on the 18 for the bike riders and of coa-rse wife did more than she should have and rehurt herself and has paid for it since. So i think by now you see the problem. Denise says wait until middle of march as by then she might be right. Christ if it takes that long she will have read every book in the Hamilton library twice and i will be able to flip a cooking egg without breaking the yoke.
So we have decide to put the BBQ down for saturday 14 March.Shame about the delay as so much is now happening with the company to talk about.By then PPP will be a past event and with the next takeover coming on stream and Kupe earning getting close enought to begin lifting the SP.
Cheers i now have to go and make breakfast. Oh for the good old days when i just got called to breakfast.Now lets see if this morning i can get it right.Bacon in first half cooked before breaking in eggs.And remember to not just put eggs on bench before hand as it is slopped and they roll off and hit floor.Well at least the positive side is that new skills are good for the brain as only learning new skills create more neuron brain connections.
Cheers again have to go.
Digger

Digger... improve your time management skills...... eat Weetbixs

[digger]

Digger... improve your time management skills...... eat Weetbixs

Thanks for the idea. We eat porrage,mueslie,toast and bacan and eggs.Eggs are free ranged and sometimes scrapped off the floor.
Note i have changed the date for BBQ from 14th to 07 of March. Denise has big family get together on 15th so does not want things too close .
My place can be found on Googles at 364 Quine road ,just north of Morrinsville. In the coming weeks would like some idea who is coming.Open to all oilers here on sharetrader.Will also email directors to see if i can get any to attend to discuss the latest that is also known in the public arena.

[Casa del Energia]

What is a Gamma prospect?

[the machine]

just some facts to dispute shastas post .AT and NT have taken minimal directors fees. Same cant be said of TR but he is driving the train. AT bought nzo share stake at around 25c,so should be expecting a reasonable premium. I sold out of nzo at the last option time because I never liked Pike and increased my ppp with a view to a long term hold, 10years, when I expected them to be safely worth $1 plus. I will be qiute happy to sell to nzo at a substantial price but eqally happy if they walk away and leaves us ppp ers to steadily accumulate wealth.By the way I am glad when the original Tui exploration well was drilled that Coaster never completed Plugged and Abandoned when full depth was reached and there was no announcement. Have the feeling it might have jinxed the whole project. Got the feeling there is a lot more oil to come in this area.

think AT bought out nzo's share when price about au35c, which is about where market has finally recovered to.

M

[the machine]

Your scrib offer is a bit rich Machine.Anything like 4 nzo for 5 ppp will make a holder of nzo green with envy. In hindsight it would certainly underline the route to holding NZO shares is by first holding them in PPP. I had thought a 1 nzo share for 2 ppp would probably be about fair,or on current value giving PPP holders 65 cents a share. Your scrib offer values them at 104 which is toooo much.


maybe.

a script offer to preserve cash has to be a lot more than straight cash.

a script offer is a cheap way in to have an nzo share.

see what happens in next few weeks or sooner.

M

[the machine]

the new permit sounds good and will be handy to see a map of it.
gamma was one of the structures identified when nzo had a share of the lapsed permit to the west of kupe, but this new permit is also south of kupe.

since then nzo will have aquired a heap of info through drilling kupe.

be very handy if they can add on the 2d to pacific titan's present task - save a heap of time.

as nzo have 100% of permit one wonders what origin energy think of that.

m

[boysy]

i find it unlikely that nzo would use much cash if an offer comes foward hence the script part of such an offer would have to be advantageous to ppp holders. machines 5ppp:4nzo might be a bit high in saying that time will tell expect a whole lot of info out this week nzo quarterly out friday and id expect ppp and awes to also be out around then.

[temptation]

NZO have 384,067,359 shares issued
PPP have 588,612,110 shares issued
A take out at 4 NZO for every 5 PPP would imply a valuation of PPP greater than the valuation of NZO!

[sideline]

NZO have 384,067,359 shares issued
PPP have 588,612,110 shares issued
A take out at 4 NZO for every 5 PPP would imply a valuation of PPP greater than the valuation of NZO!

Yeah, I think those speculations are wildly irrational exuberance. I personally am
not convinced that any takeover is coming - maybe a decent blocking stake is all
that is desired.

[shasta]

any t/o offer by nzo for ppp has to be a firstup knockout offer

Say au 75c cash or 4 nzo share for every 5 ppp share should do it - the later of course preserving the pile of cash which is all to critical in these opportunistic times.

as a holder of both, we lean towards this type of offer even though it dilutes nzo

M

Whilst PPP holders can expect a "reasonable" premium, NZO will not do it's own shareholders any justice by lining PPP holders pockets, at there own expense, especially as NZO can pick & choose there targets.

I say give PPP holders back there cash backing equivalent* & some script to sweeten the deal (say 1:5) & thats the best they should expect.

That way, they get the same as if PPP were wound up & a capital return made,plus a stake in NZO to get a slice of the action with 22.5% of Tui.

As at todays close NZO was $1.29 & PPP $0.43 (on the NZX), or a ratio of 1 NZO = 3 PPP.

If we say that PPP's cash backing = $0.30*+(1.29 x 1/5*) = ~$0.55

Thats still a 28% premium on PPP's closing SP price of 43c.

If PPP hold out for say 60c, NZO may well go all script & at today's price that equates to every PPP being worth 0.465 a NZO share.

[fish]

.

If PPP hold out for say 60c, NZO may well go all script & at today's price that equates to every PPP being worth 0.465 a NZO share.[/QUOTE]
.

The share price does not reflect fair and reasonable value for a share-you need independent valuatiions of both simultaneously and using the same methodology.

[boysy]

do holders of nzo honestly believe that nzo would give ppp back its cash backing per share. In these times i think nzo would rather have cash and would be more inclined to offer a slightly more valuable scipt offeras opposed to mainly cash and script as they could use the cash more effectively in this environment. if a offer is forthcoming i expect it to be heavily scipt waited. just my opinion though.

[sideline]

.

If PPP hold out for say 60c, NZO may well go all script & at today's price that equates to every PPP being worth 0.465 a NZO share..

The share price does not reflect fair and reasonable value for a share-you need independent valuatiions of both simultaneously and using the same methodology.

Exactly! Before NZO started to acquire PPP shares the price was around 24c. The only reason it trades
now higher is NZO's interest. Valued on a same for same basis, I calculate about 5 ppp for 1 nzo.
Maybe a bit of premium on that for PPP's value being mostly cash while NZO's is is more made up of
future production in Kupe and PRC interest, so more risky.

Some of the numbers in previous posts are just pipedreams.....

[boysy]

dont get me wrong but tui is nzo major asset at present. Pike is medium term and pike longer term. Due to discounting the major value at present comes a from the cash then tui then pike and finally Kupe. Hence it should be valued accordingly. 1nzo-5ppp isnt right every one could see how undervalued ppp was its just some people chose to look the other way i mean ppp cash backing per share was greater than the market cap in essence TUI was valued at nothing which was crazy then. TUI is the money maker for both companies yet it was valued into nzo share price though not into ppp. i would say 1nzo-3ppp the current shareprice of nzo isnt reflective of its value but this shouldnt detract from the fact that nzo will have to pay a price for ppp that values it at its true worth i did some calculations today and came up with a conservative figue for ppp a A$220 million or A$0.37 a share time will show what nzo will do i am somewhat biased in the fact i only hold ppp.

[shasta]

.

If PPP hold out for say 60c, NZO may well go all script & at today's price that equates to every PPP being worth 0.465 a NZO share.
.

The share price does not reflect fair and reasonable value for a share-you need independent valuatiions of both simultaneously and using the same methodology.[/quote]

How many oilers on the ASX are currently at "fair value"?

I'd say most companies are well below full valuation (incl NZO) :confused:

What makes PPP so special to demand such an outrageous premium?

NZO arent going to pay more than $1 for each $1 PPP has in cash, & as has been mentioned, only NZO's interest has sparked the PPP SP to where it is now.

Boo hoo my figures all you like, they are food for thought & with no solid valuation methodology behind them. (I'm sure PPP holders have factored in lower oil prices into there NPV calc's ;))

If PPP is worth so much more, you should be directing that very question to PPP's management & asking for a share buyback.

Let's see what they "value" there own shares at & are prepared to pay.

Might be a better option than PPP trying to hold a gun to NZO's head.

I'm sure even NZO would like to double there money on there PPP shares, if indeed PPP's mgmt value there shares above $NZ0.60c :rolleyes:

[the machine]

kan tan iv is coming to aust/nz

PetroleumNews.net + Kan Tan IV rig on way to Australia, New Zealand 28 Jan 2009 ... AUSTRALIAN Drilling Associates has confirmed it is bringing the Kan Tan IV semi- submersible rig to Australia and New Zealand for a ...
www.petroleumnews.net/storyview.asp?storyid=560996 - 8 hours ago - Similar pages


M

[Thumpa]

PPP holders are in it for the pure oil play and low risk cash flow with Tui continuing for some time. This is of course what NZO wants as well.

A NZO script offer may not be that enticing. If you want exposure to dirty old coal in a deteriating global market for that stuff then they would have just gone and brought PRC or NZO.
Any script offer to PPP holders could result of a dumping in NZO as soon as it comes through and there's the dilution as well.

A juicy cash premium offer is the only way.

Would get interesting if a third party comes in with a blocking stake (ACC / Kiwisaver fund etc)

[the machine]

dont get me wrong but tui is nzo major asset at present. Pike is medium term and pike longer term. Due to discounting the major value at present comes a from the cash then tui then pike and finally Kupe. Hence it should be valued accordingly. 1nzo-5ppp isnt right every one could see how undervalued ppp was its just some people chose to look the other way i mean ppp cash backing per share was greater than the market cap in essence TUI was valued at nothing which was crazy then. TUI is the money maker for both companies yet it was valued into nzo share price though not into ppp. i would say 1nzo-3ppp the current shareprice of nzo isnt reflective of its value but this shouldnt detract from the fact that nzo will have to pay a price for ppp that values it at its true worth i did some calculations today and came up with a conservative figue for ppp a A$220 million or A$0.37 a share time will show what nzo will do i am somewhat biased in the fact i only hold ppp.


ppp's cash and assets would surely exceed a$220 at present.

add on tui drilling in 2009 [yes kan tan iv is signed up for awe/others] and expected rising POO, equates to a very high knockout t/o in nzo what to succeed first time up.

bring it on.

M

[the machine]

.

The share price does not reflect fair and reasonable value for a share-you need independent valuatiions of both simultaneously and using the same methodology.

How many oilers on the ASX are currently at "fair value"?

I'd say most companies are well below full valuation (incl NZO) :confused:

What makes PPP so special to demand such an outrageous premium?

NZO arent going to pay more than $1 for each $1 PPP has in cash, & as has been mentioned, only NZO's interest has sparked the PPP SP to where it is now.

Boo hoo my figures all you like, they are food for thought & with no solid valuation methodology behind them. (I'm sure PPP holders have factored in lower oil prices into there NPV calc's ;))

If PPP is worth so much more, you should be directing that very question to PPP's management & asking for a share buyback.

Let's see what they "value" there own shares at & are prepared to pay.

Might be a better option than PPP trying to hold a gun to NZO's head.

I'm sure even NZO would like to double there money on there PPP shares, if indeed PPP's mgmt value there shares above $NZ0.60c :rolleyes:[/QUOTE]


a few years ago tap oil tried to take our arc energy in a friendly merger - think arc started at about 25c au and tap sold out their 5% stake at about 50c au after arc told them no.

Arc subsequently went over $2 and since merged with AWE - at a price well north of what TAP oil sold out at.

bet you TAP oil would have preferred to not give up in hindsight.

sure a different setting and a few years back.

the point is if nzo want ppp then they have to make it a knockout bid that exceeds the valuation ppp's independant party comes up with.

since cash is king then nzo will want to prerserve the cash, hednce by including script that will come at an additional premium - 10 - 20% over a cash bid - whatever.

anyway, its all falling into place with the kan tan iv now coming, brings greater tui into play as part of any bid.

nzo should be worth a lot more than present sp, so any dilution will not impact much.

M

[the machine]

Exactly! Before NZO started to acquire PPP shares the price was around 24c. The only reason it trades
now higher is NZO's interest. Valued on a same for same basis, I calculate about 5 ppp for 1 nzo.
Maybe a bit of premium on that for PPP's value being mostly cash while NZO's is is more made up of
future production in Kupe and PRC interest, so more risky.

Some of the numbers in previous posts are just pipedreams.....

trust you bought a lot of ppp at below 24c, since cash position exceeded sp

M

[temptation]

There is a lot of synergy between the 2 companys, and a takeover/merger should be in everyones interests.
From an NZO perspective this a chance to increase their exposure to Tui whilst the market is undervaluing these assets.
From a PPP perspective this is a chance to get into a bigger and more liquid share with a better diversified portfolio.
At 2 NZO shares per 5 PPP shares scrip, the PPP holders would be getting au40c if the share prices stayed constant. As an NZO holder I would be happy, but as a PPP holder I would be disappointed to be left waiting for a long term benefit.

As a PPP holder I would like to be given my au26c out of the PPP kitty plus 1 NZO share for every 5 PPP held. At current NZO sp, that puts a value on PPP's 10% Tui at about AU$118,000,000 which may be a bit low, but it's a lot better than the market currently implies, and with NZO sp at AU$1.00 gives a value to PPP shares of au46c which is a decent premium on PPP's best share price to date.

Everyone should be happy!

[the machine]

be mindful that nzo have scoured many and oil/gas "target" and settled on ppp as first move - 15% so far.

sure that 15% was below asset cost and a very good buy by nzo.

to take holding beyond 15% will require a very substantial offer, well above valuation of ppp and in the mix is greater tui drilling laterthis year as awehavesecured kan tan iv - this alone should do wonders for nzo/ppp sp

M

[manxman]

kan tan iv is coming to aust/nz

PetroleumNews.net + Kan Tan IV rig on way to Australia, New Zealand 28 Jan 2009 ... AUSTRALIAN Drilling Associates has confirmed it is bringing the Kan Tan IV semi- submersible rig to Australia and New Zealand for a ...
www.petroleumnews.net/storyview.asp?storyid=560996 - 8 hours ago - Similar pages


M


Somehow http://www.energycurrent.com/index.php?id=2&storyid=14838 slipped under the radar.

The Kan Tan IV consortium drilling program already has a total duration of 534 days to drill 12 wells in Australia and New Zealand, commencing in Australia's Bass Strait late Q3, 2008.

This would put any TUI area drillng towards the end of the year or even 2010.
NZO could either firm up a bid for PPP or exit during the excitement that spudding a new well seems to bring. Just parking the spare cash in PPP seems to be paying off a lot better than keeping it under the mattress.

Interesting times

[KentBrockman]

.

to take holding beyond 15% will require a very substantial offer,
...
M

Yes it will, but don't count on it. There's a good chance that NZO will muck this up.

I am willing to consider a reasonable offer for my PPP shares, but if NZO comes with a cheap and opportunistic t/o than I say: Go away NZO, and suck on your minority stake in PPP.

The POO won't stay so low forever, so I am happy to hang on to PPP.

[boysy]

The Kan Tan IV was originally expected to be in Australian waters this month, though Stratford said he now expected the rig to be in Australian waters by mid-April and to start drilling in Bass Strait by late May.

He said the rig would then be mobilised to New Zealand in August or September but was scheduled to return to Bass Strait in late 2009.

Although Stratford did not detail the rig’s proposed New Zealand programs, AWE has already said it plans to utilise the semi-submersible to drill up to six exploration wells in and around the Tui Area oil field, off Taranaki.

Prospects include Tui Southwest, Tui Southeast, Tui Northeast, Kahu Crest and Kahu Stratigraphic.
The company also told PNN it may also use the Kan Tan IV to drill one or possibly two wildcats in the offshore Canterbury licences PEP 38262 and 264 that it presently holds 100% equity in.

Stratford said the rig was booked until August 2010, though it was almost certain the work program could be extended beyond that.

“We have 519 firm days on the rig and options to extend,” he said.

The Tui partners are operator Australian Worldwide Exploration (42.5%), Mitsui E&P NZ (35%), NZOG (12.5%) and Pan Pacific Petroleum (10%).

[Nitaa]

NZOG moves survey into Kupe territory
4:00AM Thursday Jan 29, 2009
By Grant Bradley



David Salisbury. Photo / Supplied
New Zealand Oil & Gas will next month start looking for oil next to the Kupe field off the coast of south Taranaki.

The company says it will spend between $1 million and $2 million collecting new seismic data and reanalysing existing information for the area which covers 3000sq km.

Under the terms of the exploration an evaluation programme is to be carried out in the first two years with a decision on drilling an exploration well to be taken at the end of the second year. The survey vessel Pacific Titan would shoot 500km of new 2D seismic over about a week.

The vessel has been working in Taranaki and the Canterbury Basin during the past year.

Although the company would not release any estimates of what potential the area holds, chief executive David Salisbury said "regional analysis of source zones and the proximity of Kupe indicates that there is a favourable chance for oil or wet gas".

Rough estimates from the preliminary mapping indicated the potential for up to six structures ranging from 10 to 100sq km in size.



The area had structures not considered in Taranaki before.

It contains a "fairway" of structures about 2000m below the seabed NZOG has labelled the Gamma prospects.

Similar oil bearing structures are known to exist in the Sacremento Valley in California and in the Gulf of Mexico.

NZOG chief executive David Salisbury said the company was keen to get the work programme under way.

"At this early stage is the Gamma prospects are a very welcome addition to NZOG's exploration portfolio," Salisbury said.

The company has a 12.5 per cent stake in the Tui oil fields, which has yielded it more than 2.5 million barrels during the past 18 months.

It has a 15 per cent stake in the Kupe gas and oil project, due to come on stream later this year.

A spokesman said the company said if the area went into production it would not be for another five to seven years, meaning relatively low oil prices had no bearing on plans.

The falling price of oil had some benefits.

Marginal projects overseas were now being deferred so freeing up equipment, he said.

NZOG has built a 15 per cent stake in Tui field partner Pan Pacific Petroleum.

[digger]

The movement in all NZO's holdings have had very positive announcements in the last week.Pike's at any other time would have been eargly received but for now the world is going backward and the report of extra coal was only received on todays value and assesed as nil.Down the track it will be different but market have short time spans and value in a few years is discounted to zero.
Tui since startup in july 07 has been a little gem.It will far exceed the 50 million put on it and with the drills later this year it adds a lot of interest and excitement. I have always said that TUI would deliver 60 million but my money is where my mouth is and i really think the way things have gone this last year and a half it all points to about 3 times that figure. Certainly will not be missing and reports on the near area drills. Life was never so interesting.
Yesterdays KUPE announcement of more 2D seismic surveys around KUPE is good news over the top. Especially i like that no development of any prospects will take place till well after the world can no longer ignore Peak oil and in a few years the current finanical crises will be behind us and hopefully resourc depletion will have force a new reality of oil value.Frankly i kind of hope on todays priced Kupe is late in starting up as otherwise we are just almost giving it away.
Digger

[Casa del Energia]

The movement in all NZO's holdings have had very positive announcements in the last week.Pike's at any other time would have been eargly received but for now the world is going backward and the report of extra coal was only received on todays value and assesed as nil.Down the track it will be different but market have short time spans and value in a few years is discounted to zero.
Tui since startup in july 07 has been a little gem.It will far exceed the 50 million put on it and with the drills later this year it adds a lot of interest and excitement. I have always said that TUI would deliver 60 million but my money is where my mouth is and i really think the way things have gone this last year and a half it all points to about 3 times that figure. Certainly will not be missing and reports on the near area drills. Life was never so interesting.
Yesterdays KUPE announcement of more 2D seismic surveys around KUPE is good news over the top. Especially i like that no development of any prospects will take place till well after the world can no longer ignore Peak oil and in a few years the current finanical crises will be behind us and hopefully resourc depletion will have force a new reality of oil value.Frankly i kind of hope on todays priced Kupe is late in starting up as otherwise we are just almost giving it away.
Digger

Three times 60 million - I assume this is based on the probable finding of near deposits during the up coming drill(?) - and perhaps connecting up the deposit at Tui.

[bermuda]

Hi bermuda,

My BBQ and everything else has been held up by one off problems. Wanted it in November but Denise said wait until deck was made. Fair enough. In early Dec she hurt her sciatic nerve and has been laid up every since. Had to cancel a holiday to Hong Kong and also she will not be able to take part in the Otago Trail Bike Ride at end of February.Has fainted twice trying to do two much from pain. Christ after 40 years of marrage i have had to learn how to cook bacon and eggs,take the washing out and still trying to avoid the vacumn cleaner. Has had a epidural in the back and may yet require an operation.Fortunally i had a similiar Sciatic problem 6 years ago so know something about it.
We had a small get together of about 20 people here on the 18 for the bike riders and of coa-rse wife did more than she should have and rehurt herself and has paid for it since. So i think by now you see the problem. Denise says wait until middle of march as by then she might be right. Christ if it takes that long she will have read every book in the Hamilton library twice and i will be able to flip a cooking egg without breaking the yoke.
So we have decide to put the BBQ down for saturday 07 March.Shame about the delay as so much is now happening with the company to talk about.By then PPP will be a past event and with the next takeover coming on stream and Kupe earning getting close enought to begin lifting the SP.
Cheers i now have to go and make breakfast. Oh for the good old days when i just got called to breakfast.Now lets see if this morning i can get it right.Bacon in first half cooked before breaking in eggs.And remember to not just put eggs on bench before hand as it is slopped and they roll off and hit floor.Well at least the positive side is that new skills are good for the brain as only learning new skills create more neuron brain connections.
Cheers again have to go.
Digger

Thanks Digger,
In lieu of your circumstances I can readily see that a BBQ would be the last thing on your mind. Sounds as though a deferment until November might be easier on you. I know what you are going through. My wife got rhumatoid Arthritis and literally had to be helped out of bed about 3 years ago. But with the wonders of modern medicines she is now back to almost full fitness. Please give Denise my kind regards and best wishes for a fast recovery.

And if you are having the BBQ on March 7th, I will book a flight and be there. But I do understand if you put this on hold. You seem to have a lot on your plate.
Cheers

Good luck to all PPP holders. A wise man would load up before the offer.

[Crypto Crude]

Digger,
Yes,
I will try and swing something (if I am invited)... if you are planning for the 7th of March... my jobs starts on the 17th, so I will be on route...
send my well wishes to Denise...
:cool:
.^sc

[digger]

Three times 60 million - I assume this is based on the probable finding of near deposits during the up coming drill(?) - and perhaps connecting up the deposit at Tui.
yes that is what i mean--the greater area.
Digger

[digger]

Thanks Digger,
In lieu of your circumstances I can readily see that a BBQ would be the last thing on your mind. Sounds as though a deferment until November might be easier on you. I know what you are going through. My wife got rhumatoid Arthritis and literally had to be helped out of bed about 3 years ago. But with the wonders of modern medicines she is now back to almost full fitness. Please give Denise my kind regards and best wishes for a fast recovery.

And if you are having the BBQ on March 7th, I will book a flight and be there. But I do understand if you put this on hold. You seem to have a lot on your plate.
Cheers

Good luck to all PPP holders. A wise man would load up before the offer.

Burmuda,Shrewd Crude and other oilers
Sadly it looks like i had better not risk having a BBQ on 7 march or for a good time afterwards. My wife has had one epidural about two weeks ago and has an appoitment for possible another on next friday.Still living on pain killers so we have decided that our first concern has to be to get her right before we make committments of any sort.I am sure you all understand and have passed on your best wishes.
Digger

[777]

Reports out....


http://www.nzog.com/f136,140924/140924_NZOG_Dec08_Quarterly_Activities_Report.pdf

http://www.nzog.com/f137,140943/140943_December_2008_Quarterly_Cash_Flow_Report.pd f

[the machine]

Reports out....


http://www.nzog.com/f136,140924/140924_NZOG_Dec08_Quarterly_Activities_Report.pdf

http://www.nzog.com/f137,140943/140943_December_2008_Quarterly_Cash_Flow_Report.pd f



to me the report seems to have a lack of excitment - as if nzo downplaying it a tad.

maybe once awe confirm the drilling the hype will happen.

M

[Nitaa]

to me the report seems to have a lack of excitment - as if nzo downplaying it a tad.

maybe once awe confirm the drilling the hype will happen.

MHi Machine. My view is rather different. NZO has a very strong cash position. Opportunities for consolidation will strongly favour nzo as many exploreres will go bellly up this year.

They have played down Pike which is understandable but aside from that we should be in for a great year considering the current economic situation

[Crypto Crude]

digger----Burmuda,Shrewd Crude and other oilers
Sadly it looks like i had better not risk having a BBQ on 7 march or for a good time afterwards. My wife has had one epidural about two weeks ago and has an appoitment for possible another on next friday.Still living on pain killers so we have decided that our first concern has to be to get her right before we make committments of any sort.I am sure you all understand and have passed on your best wishes.
Digger

Yes, look after number one digger...you and your family...
all the best...
:cool:
.^sc

[Casa del Energia]

yes that is what i mean--the greater area.
Digger

Cheers. Thanks - and judging by the words in the Qrtly report - you may well be on the mark.

And all the best to Mrs Digger.

[boysy]

awe quarterly sounds a bit more promising about drilling round tui in the near future later in 2009 they want to drill 5 wells.

[boysy]

NZOG ‘inundated with opportunities’

Neil Ritchie, New Zealand
Friday, 30 January 2009

THE flood of investment opportunities opening up for New Zealand Oil & Gas is consuming a lot of the listed mid-cap company’s time and energy in sifting the good from the bad.



The Tui Area oil project

NZOG chief executive David Salisbury said at the release of the company’s December quarterly results this morning that the Wellington-headquartered firm was “literally being inundated with opportunities”.

The global financial crises and low oil prices were combining to open up more opportunities for NZOG than ever before, with some exploration and production (E&P) companies now under enormous pressure to raise funds or reduce debt.

However, for well-placed companies such as NZOG, “it is a time of opportunity to create greater wealth for shareholders and we are looking to use our strong position to secure attractive new ventures”.

“NZOG is in a strong position to take advantage of investment opportunities. Price expectations are lowering and industry consolidation is starting to happen and is likely to gather pace.

“New possibilities are continually being identified. These are thoroughly and systematically assessed, and those which meet our criteria are being actively pursued.”

NZOG is debt free, having repaid its debt facility associated with the $NZ1.2 billion ($A944 million) offshore Taranaki Kupe gas-condensate project in mid-October, and has a war chest of almost $212 million, with just over two thirds of these funds held in United States dollar denomination accounts with NZ-domiciled banks.

“We are getting a new opportunity a day, people approaching NZOG with a proposal, and we are spending some serious effort eliminating the poor quality, and some are very poor quality, from the good.”

Having said that, Salisbury added that NZOG was currently “actively reviewing and pursuing at least six higher graded opportunities”.

NZOG’s operating revenue for the December quarter was $30.9 million, with a total of $19.7 million invested in capital projects, mostly the Kupe development.

Last month NZOG spent $30.7 million acquiring just under 15% of Tui partner Pan Pacific Petroleum and has Australian Foreign Investment Review Board approval to launch a total takeover bid for Pan Pacific, though Salisbury today declined to say if his company would do so.

Salisbury also said the offshore Taranaki Tui Area field continued to perform well and be profitable, even at low oil prices.

A barrel of oil sold at $US42 (about $NZ80), which was roughly the price received in mid-December, yielded a net profit – after depreciation, marketing and production costs, taxes and royalties – of about $NZ24.

NZOG’s Tui revenue for the six months was $103.2 million, about $72 million of which was earned during the September quarter and only about $31 million in the last quarter, when oil prices declined further.

As expected, field production is gradually reducing, though all four wells continue to produce strongly.

Total Tui production for the December quarter was 2.4 million barrels, at an average rate of over 26,000 barrels per day, compared with the 3.1MMbbl produced during the September quarter.

The more northern Kupe project is now over 90% complete, with commissioning due to start during the second quarter of 2009 and commercial gas flows during the third quarter.

“Kupe will begin providing a significant new revenue stream in the second half of 2009,” added Salisbury, though he said he did not know what proportion of total company cashflow that would be.

The Tui partners are operator Australian Worldwide Exploration (42.5%), Mitsui E&P NZ (35%), NZOG (12.5%) and Pan Pacific Petroleum (10%).

The Kupe partners are operator Origin Energy (50%), Genesis Energy (31%), New Zealand Oil & Gas (15%), and Mitsui E&P NZ (4%).

[blockhead]

Going by what DS says NOG is putting around $624,000 in the bank every day, can't be too upset about that !!

[boysy]

i think your figure is a bit out there mate where did u pull it from ?

[blockhead]

Might have got it wrong, I picked it up from this in DS statement at release of quarterly

A barrel of oil sold at $US42 (about $NZ80), which was roughly the price received in mid-December, yielded a net profit – after depreciation, marketing and production costs, taxes and royalties – of about $NZ24.

[blockhead]

And based on this many barrels a day

Total Tui production for the December quarter was 2.4 million barrels, at an average rate of over 26,000 barrels per day, compared with the 3.1MMbbl produced during the September quarter.

[Ketel One]

Going by what DS says NOG is putting around $624,000 in the bank every day, can't be too upset about that !!

That's the total tui production, NZOG only have a 12.5% share. So more like ~$78,000.

[blockhead]

Ah, of course, just hurrying a bit while getting new business sorted, better slow down and spend more time thinking !!

[digger]

That's the total tui production, NZOG only have a 12.5% share. So more like ~$78,000.

I make it 97,158 a day.
First tui was shut down for say 8 days of the 93 days= 85 days.
[ 2400000 /83]=28916 barrells a day.
NZO now owns 14% of Tui----12.5%+ 15% of 10% from PPP

24[dollars] x 28916x.014= 97157.76
So even at these very depressing oil value Tui is still a winner. Nearly earning ar 100,000 a day for NZO
Anyone else get a different set of figures.

Digger

[fish]

With the nz dollar now under 51 cents and Tapis at $48 it looks like an evens chance of getting above that magic figure for next week .

Good to see that nzo has 2/3 invested in us dollar denomination in nz banks-with over $200m in the bank must have been further currency gains last few days.

Does anyone Know how much nzo will be getting for the lpg when kupe comes on stream .
Also what value for the light condensate relative to Tui ?

[shasta]

With the nz dollar now under 51 cents and Tapis at $48 it looks like an evens chance of getting above that magic figure for next week .

Good to see that nzo has 2/3 invested in us dollar denomination in nz banks-with over $200m in the bank must have been further currency gains last few days.

Does anyone Know how much nzo will be getting for the lpg when kupe comes on stream .
Also what value for the light condensate relative to Tui ?

A nice wee bonus in the cashflow statement, a nice ~$23m gain on FX adjustments...

More icing on the cake...:D

[the machine]

awe quarterly sounds a bit more promising about drilling round tui in the near future later in 2009 they want to drill 5 wells.


maybe 2 wells in awe other permits and 3 tui.

ideally 3 new development wells [for late 2010] would provide economies of scale, so 2 more discoveries needed.

M

[boysy]

DESPITE posting lower revenues and production for the December quarter, Australian Worldwide Exploration says it is in a very strong position to continue its growth.



In the company’s quarterly report, released on Friday, AWE said sales revenue was down 44% to $140 million for the quarter due to a sharp reduction in oil prices and lower production levels.

Oil and gas production was also lower at 2.12 million barrels of oil equivalent compared to 2.52MMboe produced in the September quarter.

According to the company, the lower production was due to unscheduled production disruption at the BassGass project and scheduled maintenance at the Tui and Casino fields.

Despite the scheduled maintenance, AWE said production from the Tui oil fields remained strong with an average of 28,000 barrels per day.

The company has also lowered its production forecast for the 2008-09 financial year from 9.3MMboe to 9MMboe due to the expected natural decline in production from the Tui fields and disruption to production from the BassGass project.

Managing director Bruce Wood said that while the December results were satisfactory, the company was focused on continuing to provide growth opportunities for shareholders through a combination of exploration and acquisition activity.

“AWE has relied upon exploration as its primary growth engine for many years and this year will be no exception,” he said.

“A large exploration program of up to 15 wells in four countries commences soon, and if successful could result in the replacement of the company’s reserve base.

“In New Zealand we are seeking to build on the success at Tui; in the Bass Basin we are very hopeful of success in the Trefoil and Rockhopper wells; and in Indonesia and in Yemen, AWE will participate in four wells in proven oil and gas provinces.”

Wood also said AWE had a strong balance sheet, no debt and was well positioned to take advantage of the current financial turmoil.

He said the company would continue to actively seek acquisition opportunities that would add value in the longer term.

At the end of the half year, AWE had net cash reserves of $383 million and declared a special fully franked dividend of 10c per share.

Click here to read the rest of today's news stories.

[Rabbi]

NZO still flushed with cash while many Aussie juniors are stuggling to pay their debt from existing revenues.
You don't have to read between the lines to see that the management of NZO want to play around in the Taranaki Basin for some time yet, and are taking a very circumspect approach to how they spend their money.
It must be doing their heads in to have to decide which companies are worth having a crack at ; oh the responsibility of it all.
So far they have bought a stake in PPP, which confirms to me that they want to "stick to their knitting", at least for the time being.
Athough it must be tempting to buy into a more high reward, high risk oiler that has had it's share price pummeled over the last few months. I can think of a few that have good revenues too, such as PSA, which looks like a sitting duck.

I wonder if they will pay a dividend again?

[KentBrockman]

FYI:

http://www.stuff.co.nz/northland/4835689a22377.html

[Dr_Who]

FYI:

http://www.stuff.co.nz/northland/4835689a22377.html

Finally some common sense. NZ oil use by NZers. :)

Cant say too much about Fonterra, when NZ consumers have to pay more for our milk and cheese than other countries, esp when dairy prices have come down. :mad:

[digger]

A parcel of 1,700,000 shares @ $1.33 traded off market @ 2:02PM - Something up possibly?

It surely wasn't me :rolleyes:
Yes very interesting. Was it Nita who was suggesting that AWE could be looking for an acquisition just a few pages back. That volumn is certainly eye brow raising.
To change the subject I have started a new thread on the ASX site called " POO 2009 Comp" I will be offering a 100 dollar Aus wine prise to who ever picks the closest finish number on the last day of trading for WTI crude.
If interested put your pick there,not here on this thread. I will be regularly undating the number already chosen. Names of who picked what will be deleberately left out to not in any possibly way influence your pick .Entries close end of feb.
Digger.

[777]

So who was the seller? It was only one parcel.

[blockhead]

Another 1.9m through @ $1.33 well after close of play tonight, no volume at all on ASX though

[blockhead]

Ozzies have a whiff of whatevers going on, sellers have dried up

[boysy]

are we thinking it may be related to ppp perhaps a build in sp before a script offer being announced ?

[digger]

are we thinking it may be related to ppp perhaps a build in sp before a script offer being announced ?

Interesting hey boysy. Your thoughts on the situation could be one of a dozen or more reasons to explain the sudden rise in SP and volumn.It also looks a lot like what happened to PPP just before NZO had to announce its 5% purchase,so who knows is it the beginning of a stake build. The one thing for sure is that both you and i will be watching every move to see what the sudden interest is all about.Sorry for more questions and no answers.
Digger

[boysy]

you never know could this be ppp buying into nzo stranger things have happened

[Dr_Who]

are we thinking it may be related to ppp perhaps a build in sp before a script offer being announced ?

I think you maybe onto it there Boysy.

[da puntzda]

I was just going to say the same thing, all points to the script component for a PPP takeover - NZO are selling down PPP and buying NZO I reckon

[upside_umop]

Oh...the theories...

I think some NZO investors may be relieved that NZO has not pounced yet. I doubt they're selling down their PPP?

Certainly not buying NZO - a stock buyback announcement would have to be made.

NZO has done well as of late. Still...if Pike doesnt perform...NZO will struggle to perform. I guess you gotta expect performance when you look at what AWE have done since their lows...almost up 50%.

[Casa del Energia]

Anyone got any good rumours? Just hit $1.37 - - for 'no reason'. I'm sure this isn't 'feel good' week - so whats the story, folks?

[Rabbi]

Yesterday was probably an institution buying a parcel.

I infer this from the fact that NZO is now in the NZX 15.

Still a lot of shares for one institution though, so I can understand the speculation.:cool:

[Paddie]

Yesterday was probably an institution buying a parcel.

I infer this from the fact that NZO is now in the NZX 15.

Still a lot of shares for one institution though, so I can understand the speculation.:cool:



You may well be right.

Volumes today aren't great for somone supposedly having a go at NZO.

Paddie

[Mr Tommy]

Interesting article in the Dominion today about Contact re-injecting gas into an old gas field called Ahuroa in Taranaki. So far they have put 4.3 PJ into it. It says they are buying it up and storing it for future use, but I wonder if they have some contract ssigned that they have to take it when they cant use it all at the moment.

[Zaphod]

Gas pumped into depleted field

"Each day, Contact Energy has been pumping about 500,000 cubic metres of the gas into the old Ahuroa field. The long-term plan is for enough gas to be stored underground to enable Contact to extract it during periods of high energy demand, such as winter."

http://www.stuff.co.nz/dailynews/4837086a6554.html

[Mr Tommy]

Yeah why I mentioned this is because Tui has been flaring off gas, if only they could get it onshore.

All the Kupe gas is committed to Genesis , I assume they will not be burying it underground for a rainy day.

[the machine]

should give sp a bit of a boost

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00925515

M

[Nitaa]

nzo appears to be in a nice uptrend. i managed to pick up some extra shares at $1.13 back in Dec i think.

I am also looking forward to another tick in the box once kupe is up and running this year (touch wood).

I remember a few years ago there were posters who said that tui, pike and kupe would not get off the ground. Those glass half empty people no longer seem to post here anymore

[the machine]

although things seem a bit flat since yesterdays drilling heads up, the sp now within 10c nz of last years issue price nz$1.50 [not that we bought any at that price]

expect it will continue to increase ahead of the half yearly report [and hope of a dividend]

if nzo are to make a dividend, then they may delay making the t/o offer for PPP until after dividend announced, so as to make any script part more attractive.

up until mid october nzo made exceptional profits with tui so can afford a dividend if they want to.

M

[fish]

With the nz dollar now under 51 cents and Tapis at $48 it looks like an evens chance of getting above that magic figure for next week .

Good to see that nzo has 2/3 invested in us dollar denomination in nz banks-with over $200m in the bank must have been further currency gains last few days.

Does anyone Know how much nzo will be getting for the lpg when kupe comes on stream .
Also what value for the light condensate relative to Tui ?

?tapis now at $53 and nz dollar approx the same

sp at $1.42 with few sellers

[digger]

Yes Nita, NZO has been doing well as of late. I entered on 20 Jan @ $1.22 and so far I'm very pleased with that decission. :D

Most importantly NZO rise has to be compared against a otherwise market from hell.
On the divident front i am now more in favor of NZO using the money to take stakes in depressed oilers while the time is still ripe. The next 6 months could bring as much change in the world energy outlook as the finanical crises did in the last 6 months.This is a once in a lifetime unique opportunity for NZO do grab some spoils and thereby create real long term value for sharholders.Dividends can wait till more normal times when opportunies are not so plentifull,IMHO
Digger

[dsurf]

Matt Simmons presention - interesting presentation obviously from a peak oiler. Suggests 80% of "energy delivery infrastructure" is past used by date & will cost more than WW11 to replace, possibly using up the world's iron ore. (MacD as a peak oiler you will enjoy)

http://www.fullermoney.com/content/2009-02-06/DallasCommitteeOnForeignRelations.pdf

[beacon]

Thanks for sharing this dsurf. Interesting pitch. So are they talking supply side oil constraints, and therefore bullish oil, or are they bullish iron ore? In the nearterm though, oil fell through $35. Mulling on whether it is better to be far sighted or short sighted...

[fish]

Thanks for sharing this dsurf. Interesting pitch. So are they talking supply side oil constraints, and therefore bullish oil, or are they bullish iron ore? In the nearterm though, oil fell through $35. Mulling on whether it is better to be far sighted or short sighted...

What actually matters to the profits made by nzo is the Tapis price-and this has been climbing this year-this week has been around nz $100 -with production costs around $15 -this makes good cashflow and reasonable profits .

Week ended Average Tapis Price $NZ Equivalent
06/02/09 US$46.96 NZ$90.99
30/01/09 US$48.31 NZ$94.91
23/01/09 US$46.01 NZ$86.81
16/01/09 US$47.43 NZ$86.74

With a fixed price contract for Kupe gas made last year the next financial year -starting july 1st 2009 should be even more profitable for nzo-even if the price of oil doesnt double as opec intends .

[geezy]

NZO having a strong run, institutional support? or because of drilling news?

[Rabbi]

NZO having a strong run, institutional support? or because of drilling news?

Yes, strong buyng before NZO announce their result, but look for weakness the week after the result is announced, if they don't declare a dividend.

Hopefully, another 5c a share dividend will see the SP run up even more before going ex.:)

[boysy]

is a dividend the best thing to do with cash in this current environment ? . Why would the company willingly give out a dividend when they likely see more value holding onto the cash and spending that to increase shareholder wealth through aquisitions. Im not a holder but in these times paying a dividend seems a bit mad if a greater return can be made using this money to reinvest in the business. What do other holders think about a possible dividend ?

[the machine]

i'd be ok for a dividend - nzo made a decent profit for first 4 months.

it would do wonders for sp as well

m

[digger]

What do other holders think about a possible dividend ?


Interesting what someone else first said about NZO paying a div as part of encouraging PPP holder to sell by having it structured so that PPP holders get the divident by taking up any scrip offer that may be made.This would make since as the div would be funded by PPP's cash.I had not thought this before hand but now see it as a possibility.

[fish]

What do other holders think about a possible dividend ?


Interesting what someone else first said about NZO paying a div as part of encouraging PPP holder to sell by having it structured so that PPP holders get the divident by taking up any scrip offer that may be made.This would make since as the div would be funded by PPP's cash.I had not thought this before hand but now see it as a possibility.

Hi Digger

You will Know my answer- I am strongly in favour of a dividend.

NZO have a massive cash hoard .
Interest rates for depositors has fallen to low levels-most of NZO deposits are in us dollars which i doubt will be earning much now-the big currency gains have been made . Its time too use it-sure spend most of it buying cheap assets . The drilling rigs can be paid from tui and kupe income .
However a 5 cent special dividend-fully imputated would cost less than 20 million dollars/ less than 10% cash reserves-why not?
I would imagine 50% of holders would prefer dividends as well as buying undervalued assets.
Currently I am paying 7.1 % pa to the bank .
Nzo will be getting about 4% on their nz denominated account . Keeping such vast sums needlessly on bank deposits is only helping the aussie banks and not kiwi investors in nzo !

[foodee]

Hi Digger

You will Know my answer- I am strongly in favour of a dividend.

NZO have a massive cash hoard .
Interest rates for depositors has fallen to low levels-most of NZO deposits are in us dollars which i doubt will be earning much now-the big currency gains have been made . Its time too use it-sure spend most of it buying cheap assets . The drilling rigs can be paid from tui and kupe income .
However a 5 cent special dividend-fully imputated would cost less than 20 million dollars/ less than 10% cash reserves-why not?
I would imagine 50% of holders would prefer dividends as well as buying undervalued assets.
Currently I am paying 7.1 % pa to the bank .
Nzo will be getting about 4% on their nz denominated account . Keeping such vast sums needlessly on bank deposits is only helping the aussie banks and not kiwi investors in nzo !

Fish

Agreed. Dividend is probably the best way for a co. to reward shareholder.
As one who live on returns from investments, dividend is important.

OK others have different perspective and argue about ''value'' etc, but that only becomes tangible at point or realization-after which they are no longer holders.

Fishing is getting harder in the Coromandel.

Cheers

[the machine]

What do other holders think about a possible dividend ?


Interesting what someone else first said about NZO paying a div as part of encouraging PPP holder to sell by having it structured so that PPP holders get the divident by taking up any scrip offer that may be made.This would make since as the div would be funded by PPP's cash.I had not thought this before hand but now see it as a possibility.

time line probably against any access to ppp cash :

half yearly due out in 11 days time and any divended would be paid in april

if/when nzo makea takeover offer, ppp then have to commission an asset review - this takes time - say minimum 3 weeks before ppp can respond.
that takes it to mid march if it is a positive recommendation.

just not enough time to count on ppp cash for any dividend.


but nzo could still make the offer and if attractive enough would pick up quite a few % of ppp so people could inturn have the dividend [paid out of nzo funds]


institutions would love a dividend as have earnings for their investment


M

[digger]

[QUOTE=the machine;243709]time line probably against any access to ppp cash :

half yearly due out in 11 days time and any divended would be paid in april

if/when nzo makea takeover offer, ppp then have to commission an asset review - this takes time - say minimum 3 weeks before ppp can respond.
that takes it to mid march if it is a positive recommendation.

just not enough time to count on ppp cash for any dividend. End quote

machine ,that is not really how i meant it. Money comes and goes from my personal bank account all the time.It matters little exactally which money is paid to what debit as long as it is eventually replaced,and that is what would happen if NZO offered PPP the same dividend on becoming NZO holders post accepting scrip offer.I really do not care when the monies are return to NZO coffers by PPP t/o. The theory that a dividend could be used this way to attract PPP to exchange there PPP for NZO is just theory that further depends on a P/O that in itself may or may not happen.But it is an interesting idea.
Digger

[Awamoa]

For those hoping for a dividend announcement from the half yearly report I refer you to page 2 of the last annual report where the Chairman states "Going forward the Boards policy is to distribute a reasonable proportion of profit by way of an annual dividend.Future dividends are expected to be announced to coincide with release of the annual results".
This appears to be a fairly clear statement.

[Corporate]

For those hoping for a dividend announcement from the half yearly report I refer you to page 2 of the last annual report where the Chairman states "Going forward the Boards policy is to distribute a reasonable proportion of profit by way of an annual dividend.Future dividends are expected to be announced to coincide with release of the annual results".
This appears to be a fairly clear statement.

Awamoa. My thoughts exactly. It hasn't been a stella quarter/half so don't expect a special divi either.

[arjay]

A dividend would be valuable to any shareholder prepared to re-invest in currently underpriced NZO stock.

[Unicorn]

I do not expect a dividend this half. Special payouts are not special if they are made too often, and there is not a strong case for a special dividend this time. The annual dividend is not due for another 6 months.

Times have changed very significantly since the last annual report, and regular income has become increasingly important to many investors now that interest rates have fallen so drastically. A regular well defined dividend, with a DRP option, should be attractive to all shareholders.

By the second half Kupe should be up and running, so the income streams should be much more solid. That I believe is the appropriate point for the board to take on the discipline of paying a regular annual dividend using a reasonably well defined formula. I think the company should announce a much more specific dividend policy with this half year report, so that investors know exactly what to expect in future. The first dividend under that policy should be paid after the full year report, rather than immediately

[the machine]

first 4 months produced abnormal profits with high oil prices.

however there has been development costs with kupe and of course the ppp outlay,

guess it all hinges on script being a part of ppp t/o offer

M

[Sehnsucht888]

Brent Crude up about 10% according to the busiiness news this morning...

Does anyone have an opinion on the best/quickest site for checking Brent/Tapis prices? I have struggled to find somewhere that gives this information easily..

[777]

http://www.upstreamonline.com/market_data/?id=markets_oil
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/energyprices.html

May help.

[fish]

[QUOTE=Unicorn;243750]I do not expect a dividend this half. Special payouts are not special if they are made too often, and there is not a strong case for a special dividend this time. The annual dividend is not due for another 6 months.

Like you I am not expecting a special dividend but there are very special reasons why one could be given-not least being

1)-For the six months ended 31 December 2008, NZOG's share of production was just under 700,000 barrels, with an average sales price for the period of approximately NZ$150 a barrel.

2)NZO has an enormous amount of money bank now probably earning a low rate of interest-it can easily afford a special dividend-would only cost about 10% of that banked.

3) It would show the company is flexible and prepared to ensure investors receive a reasonable return . At times like this it could produce a big rise in the sp .

[boysy]

a big rise in shareprice ? aside from the ammount of the dividend what makes you think announcing a dividend will result in a shareprice rise of much greater than the dividend. The outlook of the oil and gas sector isnt crash hot , Is it entirely responsible to give a special dividend when the price of oil is so low and expected revenue has fallen so much. The fact that nzo made a good 1st half doesnt hide the fact that the 2nd half of the year will be crap in comparison this relates to all the jv partners of course.

[fish]

[QUOTE=boysy;243786]a big rise in shareprice

I said COULD produce a big rise in the sp

There are many reasons for this that include

1) Sending a message that the company will repay investors after it has made such a fantastic profit in the first 1/2 of the financial year .

2)The publicity generated .

3)Investors such as myself who borrowed to convert the options will not have to sell nzo to pay interest on loan .

4) encourage investors seeking dividend return to invest in nzo .

5) Above all it is just plain common sense that if a company has made a massive fortune it should return a little bit to investors rather than have it sitting in a bank deposit earning little interest . Why hold onto it and pay out in October ?

[airedale]

Brent Crude up about 10% according to the busiiness news this morning...

Does anyone have an opinion on the best/quickest site for checking Brent/Tapis prices? I have struggled to find somewhere that gives this information easily..

I followed 777's link to upstreamonline and I see that there is a table with 11 grades of oil listed. 4 of those grades show a rise in price, but 7 grades show a drop.
When all 11 grades show a price rise on the same day......that could be the signal to watch for.

[boysy]

the company can use the same argument that they can produce greater returns through investment than through returning it back to shareholders. NZO has only got a large fortune because they chose not to irresponsibly give it back to shareholders when the times were good. I remember on this thread last year when people were claiming that big dividends needed to be paid to reward investors in hindsight nzo did the best possible thing by keeping onto that cash. NZO isnt going to be a big dividend player anytime soon the company is commited to incresing sh value through reinvestment into the company. all the jv partners are in the same boat tui has been very profitable for them and they have held onto alot of the cash. A dividend could very well be paid i guess the directoprs have to weigh up what is "fair" and what will produce better returns.

[Nitaa]

i think it would be irresponsible for nzo to issue a special divvy right now. there are better things to do with the money like buying undervalued companies/permits etc. nzo is likely to be giving yearly divvies for at least 15 years on the back of tui and kupe. I am not counting pike as i think it will be sold in the not too distant future.

I am also not sure what this falacy is of giving the sp a boost by having a special divvy. Most people arent that gullable are they?

[Sehnsucht888]

http://www.upstreamonline.com/market_data/?id=markets_oil
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/energyprices.html

May help.

Thanks 777. That is just what I was looking for.

[Bixbite]

i think it would be irresponsible for nzo to issue a special divvy right now. there are better things to do with the money like buying undervalued companies/permits etc. nzo is likely to be giving yearly divvies for at least 15 years on the back of tui and kupe. I am not counting pike as i think it will be sold in the not too distant future.

I am also not sure what this falacy is of giving the sp a boost by having a special divvy. Most people arent that gullable are they?

This is good to conduct a dividend to cooperate with governments’ stimulus packages to cushion the worst of the global financial crisis. Isn’t it?

.

[Nitaa]

This is good to conduct a dividend to cooperate with governments’ stimulus packages to cushion the worst of the global financial crisis. Isn’t it?

.Thats clutching a bit isnt it bizbite. I guess everyone will have an opinion but in my view this is a great opportunity for nzo. there are many species and not so species that wont be around in the not too distant future. There i will want nzo to be as cash rich as possible to mop up the crumbs.

[fish]

Thats clutching a bit isnt it bizbite. I guess everyone will have an opinion but in my view this is a great opportunity for nzo. there are many species and not so species that wont be around in the not too distant future. There i will want nzo to be as cash rich as possible to mop up the crumbs.

Bisbite displays a generous and sensible attitude and a valid point i had not considered-I think john Key would fully agree with a dividend and nzo could gain some brownee points.

Thanks to prudent management NZO has been such a success story in these hard-times and is now just so cash rich that it can do all management has promised-increase oil and gas reserves plus pay a reasonable dividend when it can afford .

It is generating lots money daily and when kupe rolls in later this year with fixed price gas terms made when the market was much more promising plus valuable kupe condensate further cash generation is guaranteed .

Whether nzo pays a 5c dividend now and 5cents in october compared to paying 10c only in october is simply not going to have any significant impact on what assets it can buy . Current bank deposit rates are virtually Zilch so what is the point of leaving it in the bank ?

[shasta]

Bisbite displays a generous and sensible attitude and a valid point i had not considered-I think john Key would fully agree with a dividend and nzo could gain some brownee points.

Thanks to prudent management NZO has been such a success story in these hard-times and is now just so cash rich that it can do all management has promised-increase oil and gas reserves plus pay a reasonable dividend when it can afford .

It is generating lots money daily and when kupe rolls in later this year with fixed price gas terms made when the market was much more promising plus valuable kupe condensate further cash generation is guaranteed .

Whether nzo pays a 5c dividend now and 5cents in october compared to paying 10c only in october is simply not going to have any significant impact on what assets it can buy . Current bank deposit rates are virtually Zilch so what is the point of leaving it in the bank ?

Remember much of that cash pile is still the options money!

Why give it back now?

I say wait & whilst oil prices are low, keep looking for opportunites as they arise. (The 15% raid on PPP shows NZO are opportunistic)

I don't mind a prudent approach in this environment, & having paid off the Kupe debt, i'd even go as far to suggest NZO look at "assisting" PRC.

It's there investment & any help fast tracking PRC to full capacity will only enhance the value of there 30%+ holding.

Sell PRC down the line, & then make a special dividend/capital return to shareholders.

[Xerof]

Current bank deposit rates are virtually Zilch so what is the point of leaving it in the bank ?

They are in a good space right now, despite earning close to, if not, zero interest on the cash. You fail to take into account the rapid currency gains they will have made, especially since December, given the collapsing NZD. Given this probably still has another 10 cent drop coming, they have things very well positioned IMO. This more than compensates for the lousy returns provided by interest

[boysy]

the fact of the matter is that tui is declineing at last report down to about 26000 barrels a day, with the oil price @ US$50 . gross revenue is down from a peak of around 800k a day to 250 k a day .profit has dropped accordingly. That 5 cent dividend you are talking of is taking nzo longer and longer to earn. Tui is going into natural decline it makes no point for nzo to use their money (most of which is option money anyway as shasta stated above) to give back to shareholders especially if down the track nzo can get assets at cents to the dollar.

[fish]

the fact of the matter is that tui is declineing at last report down to about 26000 barrels a day, with the oil price @ US$50 . gross revenue is down from a peak of around 800k a day to 250 k a day .profit has dropped accordingly. That 5 cent dividend you are talking of is taking nzo longer and longer to earn. Tui is going into natural decline it makes no point for nzo to use their money (most of which is option money anyway as shasta stated above) to give back to shareholders especially if down the track nzo can get assets at cents to the dollar.

I am not suggesting we return the option money
I am suggesting that maybe 20% of the profits earned between 1st july 2008 and 30 th December be returned as dividends.
There are times when I think few people realise just how much money nzo has banked .

[Crypto Crude]

Current bank deposit rates are virtually Zilch so what is the point of leaving it in the bank ?


Below is a interesting post made by Upside down on the homebuyers thread...
hum...
cash at bank is also useful to defend a company, ie mount reversal takeover, and scare off suitors...
Ive eplained my position before about dividends so no need to go into that...
takeover talk, and dividend talk distract us from the real facts...
Facts... NZO is a company of the highest quality that does not need distributions or suitors for it to perform...
we have been reading takeover talk and dividend debate here for years... A great company...

heres the post from upside down...


upside down...
Inflation is set to stumble down to low single digits...ie 1-2%. Interest rates are forward thinking, based off expected inflation using a 'real' interest rate as a base and the difference between nominal and real being the inflation component. Whats better? Earning 8% last year with 5% inflation, or 5% this year with 2% inflation? When you think about it...actually better this year! Lets have a look:

8% less tax (19.5%) = ~ 6.44% - 5% (inflation) = 1.44% real rate.

now lets see 5% rates and 2% inflation:

5% less tax (19.5%) = ~ 4.03% - 2% (inflation) = 2% real rate.

How can this happen you might ask? Well, the real rates are staying the same...but the government tax take ends up being less - we savers win.


:cool:
.^sc

[the machine]

I am not suggesting we return the option money
I am suggesting that maybe 20% of the profits earned between 1st july 2008 and 30 th December be returned as dividends.
There are times when I think few people realise just how much money nzo has banked .
]



20% seems a very high amount - better to be conservative and opt for lower, leaving scope for the full year dividend, given uncertain times ahead.

a 2c dividend would be enough for mr market now

M

[geezy]

shrewdy , get NZO to buy CUE :P perhaps thats the best place where they can put their huge amount of cash right now ;)

[Phaedrus]

YK, NZO is in a short-term downtrend, a medium-term uptrend and a long-term uptrend.

You can see that the current medium-term (4 month) uptrend, while fairly shallow, is supported by a steadily rising On Balance Volume plot. Volume confirms the trend, in other words. (This is good!) Plotting trendline breaks on the OBV plot provides an excellent means of confirming other signals and you can see that that is the case here with the OBV derived buy/sell signals coinciding nicely with the price derived trendline break signals.

The "trading frequency" spectrum runs from "day-trading" right through to "buy and hold forever". For any given stock there is an optimum level of activity and in my opinion the safest and easiest way to make money on NZO lies in trading the "medium" term trends. Long-term, NZO has, at times, gone nowhere at all in trading ranges that have sometimes lasted for years. Short-term, NZO is a very volatile stock, given to violent, abrupt and unpredictable fluctuations. Between these extremes, lie the "medium-term" trends - nice, tidy, unexciting, profitable and confirmed by nice, tidy OBV trends.

Trade NZO short-term or hold it long-term if you like, but in my opinion, the best returns are from trading the medium-term trends as depicted here.

In short, YK, your NZO buy is looking safe enough for the present, and NZO remains a "Hold".

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/NZO219.gif

[Sehnsucht888]

Tui production began on 30 July 2007. Total production to 20 February 2009 is approximately 21 million barrels. NZOG's share of total production is approximately 2.6 million barrels.

FY2009 - Oil Production since 1 July 2008:

1 July 08 - 20 Feb 09: Approx 6.75 million barrels. NZOG's share of production approximately 845,000 barrels.

[Phaedrus]

It looks to me that the share price might move below the MA 30. Is this a bad sign for the short/med term?
Any downward move has negative connotations, but the pertinent question here is "Should any significance be attached to NZO breaking below its 30 day SMA?"

Answer :- No.

Why not? Because a 30 day SMA does not provide profitable trading signals with NZO.

Says who? Backtesting. Over the last 4 years, if you had bought every time NZO broke above its SMA30 and sold every time it broke below its SMA30 you would have made 10 winning trades and 35 losing trades. You would have lost money. What NZO is doing vis-a-vis its SMA30 is therefore largely irrelevant.

OK, so what would be a bad sign for the medium term?
A break below the current trendline.
A significant fall in the OBV.
A break of the OBV trendline.
A break below previous support ($1.21-$1.22)

[digger]

Tui production began on 30 July 2007. Total production to 20 February 2009 is approximately 21 million barrels. NZOG's share of total production is approximately 2.6 million barrels.

FY2009 - Oil Production since 1 July 2008:

1 July 08 - 20 Feb 09: Approx 6.75 million barrels. NZOG's share of production approximately 845,000 barrels.

Production from TUI over this period certainly shows the success of the field. That time is about 235 days. Take off 7 days for repairs and the average over this period is about 30,000 a day. Also i assume the JVers certainly would not be busting a gut to get every last barrel possible given the low price.In fact if i could make a wish list i would have it only mumming along to cover in place expenses and leave as much as possible in the ground for a better day.That better day had better be no more than a year away or the world will be in a very sad situation.
My take from TUI preformance is that all is looking great for 3rd quater drills.
Digger.

[fish]

Production from TUI over this period certainly shows the success of the field. That time is about 235 days. Take off 7 days for repairs and the average over this period is about 30,000 a day. Also i assume the JVers certainly would not be busting a gut to get every last barrel possible given the low price.In fact if i could make a wish list i would have it only mumming along to cover in place expenses and leave as much as possible in the ground for a better day.That better day had better be no more than a year away or the world will be in a very sad situation.
My take from TUI preformance is that all is looking great for 3rd quater drills.
Digger.

Production seems to be humming along steadily-I suspect Tui might produce a little more oil for this financial year than last predicted
Still profitable at current prices-

Week ended Average Tapis Price $NZ Equivalent
13/02/09 US$49.50 NZ$94.99
06/02/09 US$46.96 NZ$90.99
30/01/09 US$48.31 NZ$94.91

[p2r]

Did you see that they have sent some oil to Marsden point to trial. Should be cost savings if that goes a head.

Had great views of Tui flaring from Fanthams peak, mt Taranaki a few weeks ago.

[the machine]

Production seems to be humming along steadily-I suspect Tui might produce a little more oil for this financial year than last predicted
Still profitable at current prices-

Week ended Average Tapis Price $NZ Equivalent
13/02/09 US$49.50 NZ$94.99
06/02/09 US$46.96 NZ$90.99
30/01/09 US$48.31 NZ$94.91


ppp half year suggests 9.6m barrels.

M

[OutToLunch]

Did you see that they have sent some oil to Marsden point to trial. Should be cost savings if that goes a head.

Had great views of Tui flaring from Fanthams peak, mt Taranaki a few weeks ago.

It's quite spectacular isn't it. I spent a night camped on the summit of Mt Taranaki last year and saw the same thing, lighting up the clouds over the Tasman through the night. I couldn't help thinking, however, that the flaring seemed to be such a huge waste of perfectly good gas, especially in this day and age.

[boysy]

its not really a waste of good gas as the cost of supplying and selling the gas is the same as predicted revenue. I think the only problem occurs as they are only allowed to flair off so much gas before they have to pay fines ect. sad waste really but the oils the money maker at tui and they didnt belive their would be so much gas flowing.

[fish]

[QUOTE=the machine;244498]ppp half year suggests 9.6m barrels.

Thanks
An extra 7% per annum-particularly if they havnt been trying too hard - seems to me to be a significant plus-not that the current market is likely to notice it

[trendy]

Oil down 4.9% today.....global depression.. demand is falling faster than production can be shut in.

[Nitaa]

NZO currently @ $1.18 :eek:

Anyone know if something special is happening?

Previous support was 1.21 - 1.22Dow taken another hit. oil down. overall sentiment is down. A great buyer opportunity is emerging again.

[boysy]

looks like troubles and uncertainty about prc certainly aint helping lift the nzo shareprice

[peterfindlay]

To do or not to do…Pay a Dividend that is

There has been plenty of discussion about the merits of paying a dividend.

My view is that not paying a dividend would be a mistake, and harmful to the SP.

It is critical in the current economic environment to retain the support of your shareholders. Companies and their shareholders are feeling the impact of the current economic crisis. NZOG and their shareholders are not immune from this.

On the plus side NZOG is still doing well from Tui, with Tapis still around US$47, and total production from Tui likely to exceed 9 mmbl for the year ending 30 June 09. The foreign currency gains from the $US held now exceed NZ$50 m, and may yet grow further, depending on the timing and the amount such funds are drawndown for Kupe and other investments. Pike is causing some grief due to the contagion affect from its problems with the ventilation shaft, and how this may impact on future production and the shipment sold to the Japanese at US$300/t. The quality of PRC's company’s insurance cover will likely be put under the microscope. I hope it survives the test. The PPP share price is starting to move south, but that is important to other shareholders rather than to NZOG. NZOG is after PPP’s cash and Tui. As cash is king at the moment and for the foreseeable future, I am confident that the company recognises the value of that cash, and will be very mindful of its other opportunities. NZOG can bide its time, but whatever happens it is only likely to use cash to acquire PPP if it can get to 90% and compulsorily acquire the remainder to get to 100% ownership, and by implication, the cash held by PPP. A scrip bid is more likely but not on anything like the terms suggested on this site. The terms suggested do not reflect the value of both companies.

If a company is doing well, it needs to share the rewards with its shareholders. Shareholders rely on their returns. They have not invested just for wealth creation. In this environment profits retained are not fully translating (if at all) into the SP. The markets are not functioning as they once may have. It is not acceptable for profits to be retained unless the reasons are compelling and clearly understood by the shareholders. More than ever, NZOG is now seen as a yield stock with growth prospects. Some new investors would have been attracted by this.

NZOG Directors will be making the call on the dividend today, with it announced to the market tomorrow. Any declaration of a dividend can be done with the knowledge of virtually 8 months trading. Payment normally occurs in early April, so the company would have experienced 9 months trading and cashflow. Surely the investment intentions for the next 3 – 4 months are known, or can be determined with confidence regarding how much of the NZ$200m is likely to be required. Kupe cash flows are only 5 months away, and as such provide the ability for the company to continue to pay consistent dividends that it initiated this time last year.

As I write this, I do it with the NZOG's SP tanking, sitting at $1.18 and looking very weak, and with the conviction that the Directors need to reward the faith and support of their shareholders, and for the Directors to do whatever they can to support the SP in the short to medium term.

In my view, a dividend must be maintained.

[boysy]

news from awe release today

"Moving on to AWE’s exploration plans, Wood said the company was planning to drill some 15 wells in four countries.

He confirmed AWE’s intention to utilise the Kan Tan IV semi-submersible rig to drill at least four exploration and appraisal wells in and around the Tui Area oil field in offshore Taranaki, New Zealand, later this year.

Wood said some wells would target oil plays, while others would target biogenic gas.

The first well would target the large Hoki oil prospect, northwest of Tui in licence PEP 38401, followed by some appraisal wells closer to Tui.

AWE had not yet decided which of Tui Southwest, Tui Southeast or Tui Northeast would be drilled.

There was also the high-risk Kahu Stratigraphic play, northeast of Tui, which could be as large as the 50.1 million barrel Tui field.

Wood said AWE and its Tui partners would aim to bring any successful near-field discoveries online as soon as possible, probably within one-and-a-half years.

The Tui Area FPSO Umuroa was now processing about 25,000 barrels of oil per day and AWE was forecasting the Tui, Amokura and Pateke oil pools would produce 9MMboe this financial year. "

[QOH]

would keep me happy.

[Nitaa]

sorry guys. for the life of me i am not sure why shareholders are so incensed on receiving a dividend (special one at that). If i am not mistaken nzo has mentioned that an annual dividend is likely and will be announced around the time of the agm. what benefit would it be to spend some of its cash now? in the belief that it will artifically prop up a shareprice so holders can find an exit? To me that is the way it seems. Remember, its the company's responsibilty to create value for its shareholders. If thats achieved by paying 2 dividends each year then so be it. However im convinced that the money is better in aquiring undervalued assets or companies.

A while ago (actually not that long ago) when the nzo price was tanking around about the same level some posters thought a share buyback was need to prop up the sp and give confidence back to the market. The reality is that this is just a short term fix and the market soon forgets about it when 1 or 2 monthls later like it is now that the Dow has dropped another 1,000 to 1,500 points (about 20%) and investors get spooked or lose their confidence. It was only about 2 weeks ago nzo hit $1.42 Therefore in my book shareholders simply need to accept the fluctuations of the market.

Food for thought. Isnt it strange that when the the sp goes higher how your confidence in your decision making by holding a certain stock is increased (applies to me anyway). The opposite applies when the stock you hold starts tanking. Accept the market for what it is. If im not mistaken nzo has more cash in the bank when the sp was $1.42 (at least in principle) yet the sp is now $1.20. Ok you can factor the matters with prc that has had an equivilant effect of knocking of 4 or 5 cps off nzo sp

discl. hold ppp and nzo

[shasta]

NZO currently @ $1.18 :eek:

Anyone know if something special is happening?

Previous support was 1.21 - 1.22

Well a small matter of the DOW now back at its 1997 levels isnt helping :eek:

[arjay]

Nita,
I'm in favour of a regular dividend. Not because it props up the SP (it hasn't anyway), but because it is an effective way of crystalizing value to the shareholder. After recieving a dividend the shareholder casn re-invest in more NZO shares currently heavily undervalued. In the curretn climate the Co. could even issue shares in lieue of dividend. We've all seen clearly how an increase in value to the shrareholder (such as more cash in the bank for NZO every day) is not reflected in the SP, so it makes no sense to suggest that holding onto all the cash somehow provides the shareholder with value. Most of us invest in a company because we want a return on our investment, not just the pleasure of seeing a company perform well.

[Nitaa]

arjay.

I dont disagree what you are saying. Actually i am in favour of an annual divvy (as we are hooking into production) but not a special divvy at this time. I also agree that its no point in the money just sitting there and effectively corriding somewhat. I do think that some obvious choices with the cash is....... annual divvy only, new permits/exploration and aquistitions. Perhaps the difficult thing for most of us is to see the overal sp dwindle and not much happening to the cash. That is where the hardest bit is and requires paitience to buy undervalued assets and companies etc. Not for the sake of it but that will complement their current operations.

Other considerations in my opinion is the fact that many miners/explores are cutting back on production ( i think bhp have or are layer off 10,000 workers worldwide), there is less demand for rigs etc so these factors must also play a part in the timing of events. With the world markets in decline things will get cheaper and cheaper for cash rich companies.

[Rabbi]

You can argue about whether a dividend should be paid until the cows comes home.
If you take the case of GPG, Brierley created shareholder value by largely retaining dividends and reinvesting. Instead of dividends he 'paid" bonus shares which diluted overall sharehoder value by 10 per cent.

What chance now of selling off the assets and rewarding loyal
shareholders.

and..

the point I am making is that a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush;)

[digger]

My take on a dividend is that it will not take place unless it fits into a larger strategy.On a straight out dividend i will say no. However as someone else first pointed out a dividend could well occure if it is tied in to a PPP t/o where the dividend is then also available to PPP holders. This would be a good play as PPP holders might think they are onto something when in fact it would be their own money from their cash holding eventually paying the dividend.
But all this should be on the agenda today or tomorrow,certainly should be out this week.Interesting to see how the cooky crumbles.
Digger

[boysy]

New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd (NZOG) has today released its interim financial results, which
reflect the continuing successful performance of the company.

NZOG has a strong balance sheet, positive operating cash flows and no debt, and is well
positioned to secure new opportunities to further build shareholder value.

For the six months ended 31 December 2008, NZOG recorded total revenue of NZ$103.2
million and a net profit of NZ$54.0 million. Revenue was up 8% on the corresponding six
month period a year earlier while net profit was up 30%.

The profit result includes recognition of a net foreign exchange gain of NZ$19.4m. The
net profit is after expenditure payable to the Crown of over NZ$50m - NZ$18.4m in
royalties and NZ$32.4m in corporate tax.

With the rapid fall in international oil prices and Tui production trending lower as
expected, NZOG expects revenue to be lower in the second half of the financial year.
However, the Kupe field is on schedule for full production from the 3rd quarter of 2009,
which will result in a significant increase in NZOG’s revenue later in this calendar
year.

The Board intends to announce an annual dividend in August in conjunction with the annual
results.

Tui Production
The Tui area oil fields, in which NZOG holds a 12.5% stake, are an ongoing success story.

The fields are located 50kms off the coast of Taranaki. Production began on 30 July 2007
and in 2008 the proved and probable (2P) reserves were upgraded to 50.1 million barrels
(mmbbls).

By 31 December 2008 total production had reached 19.8 mmbbls. For the six month period
total production was approximately 5.6 mmbbls; NZOG’s share being 700,000 barrels.

International oil prices and exchange rates were extremely volatile during the six month
period. Tui oil is sold against the regional Tapis benchmark crude, which ranged from
US$152 to US$40 a barrel. The NZ dollar/US dollar cross rate ranged from 0.77 to 0.57.
NZOG achieved an average sales price of approximately NZ$150 a barrel. Total production,
freight and marketing costs were approximately NZ$16 a barrel.

Tui is on track to meet or exceed the operator’s production forecast for the full
financial year of 9 mmbbls. The drilling rig Kan Tan IV has been secured for a drilling
campaign in New Zealand waters in late 2009 and is expected to drill at least two
exploration wells within the Tui permit area. Any new discoveries could be tied back into
the existing facility.

Kupe Development
NZOG is a 15% partner in the Kupe Project, which will produce gas, condensate (light oil)
and LPGs from a field 30kms off the coast of south Taranaki. Kupe has made considerable
progress during the period and up to the date of this release.

Overall the project is over 90% complete. The principal construction work remaining is
installation of the final equipment at the Production Station near Hawera, and
construction of two oil storage tanks at Omata, near New Plymouth. Commissioning of the
production facilities is expected to begin mid year with commercial production underway
in the 3rd quarter of 2009.

NZOG’s Kupe gas is sold to Genesis Energy through a long-term take or pay contract,
providing significant and stable cashflows. In November 2008 a long-term agreement was
signed with Vector to purchase NZOG’s share of the LPGs that will be produced from Kupe,
while the light oil/condensate will be exported from Port Taranaki. With the three
products Kupe will provide NZOG with a diversified and reliable revenue stream for the
next 20 years.

Exploration
In addition to the impending drilling at Tui, NZOG has been successful in broadening its
exploration portfolio and important new data has been gathered on potential targets.

In October 2008 a 40% stake was acquired in Canterbury Basin permit PEP 38259, which
contains the promising Barque prospect. A marine seismic survey was undertaken earlier
this month.

In January 2009 NZOG was awarded 100% of a new Taranaki exploration permit PEP 51311,
which lies to the west and south of Kupe. The permit area contains a fairway of
structures that NZOG has labelled the Gamma prospects. A marine seismic survey is
underway this week.

A marine seismic survey has also been carried out over another Taranaki permit, PMP 38483
(NZOG’s share 18.9%).

After the information collected from the three permits is processed, interpretation of
the data will be carried out over the next few months.

Investments
In December 2008 NZOG acquired a 15% shareholding in Pan Pacific Petroleum, one of NZOG’s
partners in the Tui area oil fields. This is a strategic stake. NZOG identified a value
creating opportunity and now has a cornerstone shareholding in a successful business,
whose main asset is well understood by NZOG. NZOG has not taken any further action to
this point but continues to keep the matter under review.

NZOG retains a significant shareholding in Pike River Coal Ltd (PRC), which operates a
coking coal mine on the West Coast of the South Island. On 31 December 2008 3.6 million
PRC convertible notes held by NZOG were converted to 3.3m shares. NZOG now has 85.4
million PRC shares, a 30.2% stake.

Chief Executive’s Comment
NZOG Chief Executive David Salisbury said the half year financial results reflect the
performance of an established and successful New Zealand exploration and production
company.

“Tui has been a stellar performer and continues to provide a reliable cash flow. Kupe
will provide a significant new source of revenue later this calendar year. The planned
exploration drilling at Tui provides the possibility of new reserves which could be
quickly accessed through the existing facilities. Our exploration portfolio has been
grown and we continue to consider further opportunities.

“The combination of a strong balance sheet, ongoing production revenue and a diverse
portfolio places NZOG in a very strong position compared to many of its peers, who have
been hit by the double whammy of falling oil prices and the global credit crunch. As a
result, NZOG is being frequently approached with new business opportunities. These cover
the full range from exploration activity, to asset sales, to corporate acquisitions.

“The best of these opportunities are being fully assessed against technical and
commercial parameters. We make no apologies for taking our time to ensure this assessment
is carried out thoroughly. We are determined to build further value for our shareholders
and we will not be taking undue risk or overpaying for any investment.

“The last 18 months have been very successful for NZOG and we intend to continue on a
considered and strategic growth path,� David Salisbury said.

[sideline]

................
We are determined to build further value for our shareholders
and we will not be taking undue risk or overpaying for any investment.
................


Very reassuring, I like it.

[digger]

The report was certainly a great read and very reassuring to know most of my money is invested in NZ best company. I can find little to complain about.Like the bit where the board fully understands the cash and nil debt of this company especially as it compars to the rest of the oilers and the general finanical world.
NZO is a top investment and if i were not already heavily invested in this company i would waist no time in getting in.
Well done NZO and tops for taking your time about sorting out the present million and one options now rappidly becoming as investment plays.
Digger

[KentBrockman]

................
We are determined to build further value for our shareholders
and we will not be taking undue risk or overpaying for any investment.


I think PPP should take the hint and embark immediately on its own investment strategy.

[Snapper]

I think PPP should take the hint and embark immediately on its own investment strategy.

Yeah, I also thought that was an aside to PPP holders. As far as the dividend goes, I agree with Rabbi - I think that a dividend now would have underpinned NZO's value to shareholders. Overall, pretty good result, though, they couldn't really be in a better position.

[Casa del Energia]

NZO results; :-) . What else can one say? Well done.

[Snapper]

The market hasn't exactly given the thumbs-up to the half year. Only up 1 on a good day for the market and for oil. Didn't like the lack of a dividend, maybe?

[boysy]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/4859630a13.html


A deal to be announced soon ?


NZOG's share of remaining development costs for Kupe are "in the tens of millions" while the company has around $200 million available in cash and a further $125 million undrawn debt facility.

Salisbury said the company's strong performance also meant it was frequently approached with new business opportunities including exploration, asset sales and corporate acquisitions.

He indicated NZOG was in the final stages of an exploration deal with offshore partners and the exploration of potential fields adjacent to Tui will begin later in the year.

"The last 18 months have been very successful for NZOG and we intend to continue on a considered and strategic growth path," David Salisbury said.

Last year dividends from the company totalled 10 cents per share - 5 cents from a full year dividend paid in April and another 5 cent special dividend in October. The board says it is committed to announcing a full year dividend in August this year, but no level has yet been determined

[blockhead]

NOGs price right now $1.24, interesting quote below from todays financials

"Net Tangible Assets per share: NZ$1.24."

No premium on what is the best company listed on NZX right now

[bermuda]

NOGs price right now $1.24, interesting quote below from todays financials

"Net Tangible Assets per share: NZ$1.24."

No premium on what is the best company listed on NZX right now

Look ,
I dont hold any but I am seriously looking at taking a big position. This is one of the best oil company's going forward.

Hey,
This was the company that led to me to bliss. It has got lots of legs yet.

[blockhead]

You say it is one of the best OIL companies.

Blockhead reckons it is one of the best ALL companies, secure income, further income soon arriving, exploration prospects, cash in the bank for acquisitions and a spare company up the sleeve for divestment. How to improve ??

[CAM]

Kupe next........

http://www.stuff.co.nz/4860139a13.html

[Crypto Crude]

bermuda-Look ,
I dont hold any but I am seriously looking at taking a big position. This is one of the best oil company's going forward.

Hey,
This was the company that led to me to bliss. It has got lots of legs yet.


holy schkamollars...
Not just any legs either... daddy long legs...great big chompers...
:cool:
.^sc

[Casa del Energia]

Steady good news in the NZO camp over late - and as well on top of that - - could oil do a steady drive to $50 over the next month? Bottom scrubbed for weeks at late 30s but no further collapse, now signs are that US inventories trending down, gas consumption going up. Opec still watching closely to reduce output again. And (e.g) Cushing is around $42 at the mo.

End of drought?

[Nitaa]

Steady good news in the NZO camp over late - and as well on top of that - - could oil do a steady drive to $50 over the next month? Bottom scrubbed for weeks at late 30s but no further collapse, now signs are that US inventories trending down, gas consumption going up. Opec still watching closely to reduce output again. And (e.g) Cushing is around $42 at the mo.

End of drought?I suspect we have a long way to go. A few months ago i picked a bottom of $38 for oil but now it could be any old number. Conversly oil could spike but i would only see it as tempory.

Still holding this stock not for the current oil prices but the value it brings to the shareholder

[Rabbi]

On that note, there was a strong rise in crude Oil overnight.:)

PRICE*CHANGE% CHANGETIMENymex Crude Future44.391.894.4516:22Dated Brent Spot44.931.242.8316:25WTI Cushing Spot45.223.528.4415:37

[Ponda]

Could what ever is happening with PRC causing an effect on NZO? Whilst the POO has gone up overnight, that has had no effect on PPP, yet NZO is nudging $1.30 (up 5 cents.) So the main variable is PRC. Others thoughts.

[fish]

[QUOTE=Rabbi;245245]On that note, there was a strong rise in crude Oil overnight.:)

Tapis us$51.85

nz dollar=us 50.65 cents

Production cost nz $15

gross profit at 3000 barrels a day is over 1/4 million dollars a day

Opec likely to make further production cuts in march

kupe production imminent

Its only a matter of time before nzo is recognised by investors as the place to be-Bermuda get back in quickly as the sp is far too cheap given its no debt ,regular income and massive cash reserve and future potential-are their any other nzx companies that match this ?

[boysy]

very low volume of shares being traded in ppp so im not sure that the rise can be attributed to prc. On the otherhand it looks as though prc will need to raise more capital so it seems bizar that nzo sp should increase when it looks as though its stake in prc would get diluted if rights issue goes ahead.

[Casa del Energia]

very low volume of shares being traded in ppp so im not sure that the rise can be attributed to prc. On the otherhand it looks as though prc will need to raise more capital so it seems bizar that nzo sp should increase when it looks as though its stake in prc would get diluted if rights issue goes ahead.

Why do you think Pike might need more capital, is it delay and repair costs? and/or other reasons? I seem to remember that NZO had a commitment to apply further funding. (Reason for asking is that at 80c - I'm tempted to start holding it but I can still see more downside).

[777]

very low volume of shares being traded in ppp so im not sure that the rise can be attributed to prc. On the otherhand it looks as though prc will need to raise more capital so it seems bizar that nzo sp should increase when it looks as though its stake in prc would get diluted if rights issue goes ahead.


If they take up their rights then there is no dilution. They may even underwrite them so could increase their stake. All depends on the numbers used for the issue whether there is a big uptake.

[geezy]

i cant buy enough of NZO with its rising so often, when theres so much bad news going around :/

will watch on monday!

[fish]

i cant buy enough of NZO with its rising so often, when theres so much bad news going around :/

will watch on monday!

nz dollar dipping below 50 c US this morning might help-makes tapis still over $100 nz

NZO looks as if it will have lots of imputation credits to give away when it announces its dividend in August

[impacman]

Just a quick question if someone can help. What is the reason for the marked difference in the price between a barrel of oil in the three markets above? Is it because of different refining requirements and associated costs that then mean the finished product is the same price at the end e.g. West Texas is of a quality that requires more refining inputs (energy or time etc) and therefore costs more to get the end fuel product from a barrel vs Tapis which requires less refining etc but the higher cost per barrel means that the end fuel product is on a par with West Texas. Hope the question makes sense - just interested in the reason for the differences. Thanks in advance.

[Unicorn]

Just a quick question if someone can help. What is the reason for the marked difference in the price between a barrel of oil in the three markets above? Is it because of different refining requirements and associated costs that then mean the finished product is the same price at the end e.g. West Texas is of a quality that requires more refining inputs (energy or time etc) and therefore costs more to get the end fuel product from a barrel vs Tapis which requires less refining etc but the higher cost per barrel means that the end fuel product is on a par with West Texas. Hope the question makes sense - just interested in the reason for the differences. Thanks in advance.

Quality differences do not impact much on the benchmarks themselves, but shipment prices vary from benchmark prices depending on quality. The differences between Tapis, Brent and WTI quotes are mainly based on supply and demand considerations in different parts of the world.

Up until 2005 Tapis averaged about $1 a barrel less than WTI, in 2005 about $0.5 more, and over the last few years perhaps $4 more. But those are only averages, within a few months the difference has often moved between +$5 and -$5, or even more. There have even been recent extremes as a result of US inventory buildup that have lead to WTI falling to $17 below Tapis.

Unfortunately oil is sold through a market that seems to be designed more to give oil traders a means of making a lot of money than to provide a stable pricing regime that benefits both suppliers and consumers.

[Ketel One]

Just a quick question if someone can help. What is the reason for the marked difference in the price between a barrel of oil in the three markets above? Is it because of different refining requirements and associated costs that then mean the finished product is the same price at the end e.g. West Texas is of a quality that requires more refining inputs (energy or time etc) and therefore costs more to get the end fuel product from a barrel vs Tapis which requires less refining etc but the higher cost per barrel means that the end fuel product is on a par with West Texas. Hope the question makes sense - just interested in the reason for the differences. Thanks in advance.
From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crude_oil -

The petroleum industry generally classifies crude oil by the geographic location it is produced in (e.g. West Texas, Brent, or Oman), its API gravity (an oil industry measure of density), and by its sulfur content. Crude oil may be considered light if it has low density or heavy if it has high density; and it may be referred to as sweet if it contains relatively little sulfur or sour if it contains substantial amounts of sulfur.

The geographic location is important because it affects transportation costs to the refinery. Light crude oil is more desirable than heavy oil since it produces a higher yield of gasoline, while sweet oil commands a higher price than sour oil because it has fewer environmental problems and requires less refining to meet sulfur standards imposed on fuels in consuming countries. Each crude oil has unique molecular characteristics which are understood by the use of crude oil assay analysis in petroleum laboratories.

Barrels from an area in which the crude oil's molecular characteristics have been determined and the oil has been classified are used as pricing references throughout the world. Some of the common reference crudes are:

* West Texas Intermediate (WTI), a very high-quality, sweet, light oil delivered at Cushing, Oklahoma for North American oil
* Brent Blend, comprising 15 oils from fields in the Brent and Ninian systems in the East Shetland Basin of the North Sea. The oil is landed at Sullom Voe terminal in the Shetlands. Oil production from Europe, Africa and Middle Eastern oil flowing West tends to be priced off the price of this oil, which forms a benchmark
* Dubai-Oman, used as benchmark for Middle East sour crude oil flowing to the Asia-Pacific region
* Tapis (from Malaysia, used as a reference for light Far East oil)
* Minas (from Indonesia, used as a reference for heavy Far East oil)
* The OPEC Reference Basket, a weighted average of oil blends from various OPEC (The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) countries

There are declining amounts of these benchmark oils being produced each year, so other oils are more commonly what is actually delivered. While the reference price may be for West Texas Intermediate delivered at Cushing, the actual oil being traded may be a discounted Canadian heavy oil delivered at Hardisty, Alberta, and for a Brent Blend delivered at the Shetlands, it may be a Russian Export Blend delivered at the port of Primorsk.[18]

[impacman]

Thanks both Unicorn and Ketel One. That certainly helps my understanding.:)

Have a good week.

[blockhead]

Buyers and sellers @ $127 but no trades showing....halt on NZO as well ????

[Wilkins_Micawber]

Buyers and sellers @ $127 but no trades showing....halt on NZO as well ????

Hate to state the obvious but the market doesn't open until 10am :)

[blockhead]

I just clicked, an hour ahead of myself !!

[Dr_Who]

Anyone know the net cash holding in NZO's bank after paying for PPP?

nvm, found it. Is is around $212 million cash in the bank.

[blockhead]

were you able to find what bank (s) it is in, I looked for that a while back and couldn't see

[Dr_Who]

were you able to find what bank (s) it is in, I looked for that a while back and couldn't see

What does it mater what bank it is in???

[blockhead]

What does it mater what bank it is in???

well you wouldn't sleep if you had $200m in the Royal bank of Scotland would you ???

[sideline]

well you wouldn't sleep if you had $200m in the Royal bank of Scotland would you ???

In the conference call the CEO said that it was with the major Australian banks, think he mentioned
Westpac as one of them but I am not entirely sure about the latter. Ditto the holdings in foreign currency,
eg USD.

[blockhead]

So currency gains could be significant as well

[OutToLunch]

They were, as per the latest report.

I wonder if we are getting close to a good time to convert back to Kiwi dollars, for example with respect to the US dollar holdings. Most of the big currency gains have probably been made now and the longer term future for the US dollar isn't exactly rosy. Why on earth it is regarded as a 'safe haven' currency when the US is the root of most of the problems the world is now facing is beyond me. A bubble waiting to pop?

[blockhead]

They were, as per the latest report.

I wonder if we are getting close to a good time to convert back to Kiwi dollars, for example with respect to the US dollar holdings. Most of the big currency gains have probably been made now and the longer term future for the US dollar isn't exactly rosy. Why on earth it is regarded as a 'safe haven' currency when the US is the root of most of the problems the world is now facing is beyond me. A bubble waiting to pop?


There will be some thinking going in there regards the location of any funds, if an acquisition is to be made I guess there are a number of currencies it could be completed in, US$, AUS$ or NZ$ depending on home base of the seller

[Xerof]

At 31 December 2008, NZOG’s total cash on hand
was NZ$211.9m, with just over two thirds of these
funds held in US denomination accounts with New
Zealand domiciled banks.

Since the Dec update, in which they recognised 17m of currency gains, we have had another 9 cent depreciation in the NZD/USD.

Assuming they haven't converted it back to NZD already, they could be sitting on another NZD 30/35mill of gains.

Nothing out there suggests to me that the trend has changed. I still look for a 100% retracement of the last major rally, back to US0.40ish


Blockhead, yes thats probably right - if they acquire something in USD, then the 'gain' would not be recognised I should imagine, but maybe some accounting guru's could provide some guidance on accounting treatment

[Nitaa]

Leasing and exploration cost are in $USD. Since nzo will be needing usd later this year it would seem pointless in converting as they will have to reconvert it back at a later date.

[sideline]

So currency gains could be significant as well

Yes, it was mentioned that only a part of the currency gains had been recognized in the accounts,
and that there was still a substantial portion of unrecognized gains out there.

[Dr_Who]

I fear NZO sp may get hit hard with news coming out for PRC.

[Nitaa]

I fear NZO sp may get hit hard with news coming out for PRC.The other side of things is there might be opportunities to gain dont you think.

[Dr_Who]

The other side of things is there might be opportunities to gain dont you think.

I did some numbers on the spreadsheet and I wont be looking at NZO unless it is below $1.00. This is of cos subject to what the PRC announcement is. I doubt PRC announcement is going to be positive.

[Dr_Who]

It is only a small rights issue and NZO can afford it.

Oh well, at least NZO got part of the PRC shares back at the discount to the IPO price.

[Sehnsucht888]

It is only a small rights issue and NZO can afford it.

Oh well, at least NZO got part of the PRC shares back at the discount to the IPO price.

Not really - the shares are new, and their holding % will remian the same.

[Casa del Energia]

Not really - the shares are new, and their holding % will remian the same.

Could increase it by a fair margin - they are the underwriters.

Still - bargain basement. Wonder if it will floor at 70c or (considering this market and the general situation) - could they go further?

[Dr_Who]

Could increase it by a fair margin - they are the underwriters.

Still - bargain basement. Wonder if it will floor at 70c or (considering this market and the general situation) - could they go further?

It all depends what this years contract price is for coking coal. The big boys are around the negotiating table now and hope to have a final price set by Rio, BHP etc soon. If coking coal price comes below $100 then the sp can go lower.

I am also thinking that the production cost maybe higher than forecast in the prospectus. This has been evident to date with blow out costs.

[fish]

[QUOTE=Dr_Who;245702]It all depends what this years contract price is for coking coal. The big boys are around the negotiating table now and hope to have a final price set by Rio, BHP etc soon. If coking coal price comes below $100 then the sp can go lower.

It doesnt all depend on one years contract price in us dollars -the exchange rate-both present and future will play a major role in determining the nz dollar worth of annual profits .

I sold out of prc last june for nzo options conversion and dont intend(whilst nzo has a substantial holding ) to buy back in

[geezy]

once again tremendous support for NZO, the high number of trades suggest lots of individual holders/traders out there?

[777]

Large spread at close today. 122 buy 129 sell.

[MPC]

Not that great in my books as the close was at 129.
I think no point selling at the moment though ....

Cheers,
MPC

[manxman]

MYRA SAEFONG in Marketwatch

A good way to gauge what's been going on investment-wise in upstream, or exploration and production, activities is to take a look at drilling rig counts.

"The U.S. rig count responds first as drilling here is an individual company decision," said James Williams, an energy economist at WTRG Economics. "Most foreign drilling is either a state oil company decision or one made by individual companies after obtaining government approval" so foreign drilling shows a slower response, he explained.

As of Feb. 27, Baker Hughes reported that the number of rigs drilling for oil and gas in the U.S. stood at 1,243. That's down 57 rigs since Feb. 20 and down 520 rigs from about a year ago. On the international level, Baker Hughes' count was 1,078 in December 2008, down 18 from a month earlier, but up 42 from December 2007. In the U.S. overall, about 30% of the drillings rigs "have been shut down and stacked since last summer, and the rate at which they are being shutdown has been escalating," said Charles Perry, president of energy-consulting firm Perry Management. The likely outcome will be a decline of additions to oil reserves and a lowering of production of both oil and gas in the U.S., he said.

Oil staff reductions have also been a key factor, with unemployment seemingly headed for 7% to 8% after running below 4% for a couple of years, Perry said. And when drilling activity falls significantly in the U.S., oil production falls "pretty rapidly," with the reduction readily seen in about six months, he said, citing a recent study.

In the meantime, "the current recession will continue to curtail demand, crimp budgets and overall, just compel major oil players to back off major exploration projects," said Sabino. He considers that process to "potentially be disastrous because once the world economy makes a comeback, the industry will be caught short and prices will zoom once again."

Perry points out that "when drilling picks back up, it takes about four years to catch up and see any significant increase in oil and/or gas production."
Oil now seems to be holding even as everything else tanks. In a few months, production will have dropped significantly and price pressure will increase.

So if the downturn continues for much longer, the rebound will push oil up to seriously high levels. The US, where 600,000 Prius hybrids await customers, will once again realise the need to conserve energy, and regret wasting time. (You can always count on Americans to do the right thing - after they've tried everything else. -- Winston Churchill)

For NZO this is a time of opportunity. It would be nice to have some assets ready to come into production next year. I hope we see some serious news of acquisitions in the next month or so, because oil won't stay down for long.

[the machine]

with tui drilling targets still to be finalised for later this year and inturn the aim to have a batch development 1 - 2 years later, then expect nzo pushing to have more than the 2 exploration holes drilled this year.

the rig has 4 drills planned, 1 for AWE permit and 2 for tui, leaving 4th slot yet to be allocated.
expect awe want to have 2nd slot in one of their permits but also see the need to have a batch development for tui [that is 3-4 hole delevelopment] and to accomplish that you first have to drill. including the deferred tui h4, they need another 2-3 successful exploration drills to facilitate the batch development and whilst it would be great if the 2 planned so far are successful one should not bank on a 100% success rate.
thus a 3rd drill in tui would improve the odds.

maybe if awe could secure a 5th slot then all would be resolved.

weeker oil prices and tighter access to $ may help with the 5th slot.


M

[geezy]

i do not hope that oil will hit the $100 dollar a barrel mark again (although i hold NZO) , i personally think its bad for the economy. NZO has already gained through the depreciation of the NZD.

So perhaps around 60-80 a barrel will be sustainable.

Still cant get enough of the stock as it keeps going up despite all the bad news from the US.



DISC: Hold NZO

[fish]

[QUOTE=geezy;246223]i do not hope that oil will hit the $100 dollar a barrel mark again (although i hold NZO) , i personally think its bad for the economy. NZO has already gained through the depreciation of the NZD.

So perhaps around 60-80 a barrel will be sustainable.

Still cant get enough of the stock as it keeps going up despite all the bad news from the US.

Fully agree-next week could see it going up further

[MPC]

Closed reasonably well for the week. Not too much can be read into the depth though either way.

I am also confident, will be happier once it is above $1.40. No real reason for this price but just an abitrary confidence point for myself.

Cheers,
MPC

[Nitaa]

Closed reasonably well for the week. Not too much can be read into the depth though either way.

I am also confident, will be happier once it is above $1.40. No real reason for this price but just an abitrary confidence point for myself.

Cheers,
MPCAlthough the volume in general has been very week, yesterday someone grabbed about 300k shares that were on offer around the $130 mark.

[lissica]

Although the volume in general has been very week, yesterday someone grabbed about 300k shares that were on offer around the $130 mark.

Mine are for sale for the bargain price of $128.

[Nitaa]

Mine are for sale for the bargain price of $128.yes i missed the decimal point

[Crypto Crude]

fish-Its only a matter of time before nzo is recognised by investors as the place to be-Bermuda get back in quickly as the sp is far too cheap given its no debt ,regular income and massive cash reserve and future potential-are their any other nzx companies that match this ?

hey fish....
keep up the good work mate...
I found one of your buddies...

><{{}}>

:cool:
.^sc

[duncan macgregor]

hey fish....
keep up the good work mate...
I found one of your buddies...

><{{}}>

:cool:
.^scALWAYS TWO SIDES TO A STORY IGNORE THAT AT YOURE PERIL.
Whats going for it against whats against it.
The market is against it, its FA against TA.
The market is doom and gloom the market says it will downtred.
The FA says it will rise in price simply because of profits in hand plus potential profets.
MACDUNK says its not a good look stick your money in the bank. Macdunk

[Crypto Crude]

this year NZO has gone up 7 cents...
The Dow has plummeted...
great investment id say...
what has cash in bank done....?
nothing...another OCR cut this week...
expect another slashing of deposit rates...
:cool:
.^sc

[Nitaa]

ALWAYS TWO SIDES TO A STORY IGNORE THAT AT YOURE PERIL.
Whats going for it against whats against it.
The market is against it, its FA against TA.
The market is doom and gloom the market says it will downtred.
The FA says it will rise in price simply because of profits in hand plus potential profets.
MACDUNK says its not a good look stick your money in the bank. MacdunkMcDunk. I told you to buy this stock last year when it was close to $1. I also said to buy when it was $1.13 earlier this year. When i say i put my money where my mouth is.

Pity you didnt come to the Auck Shareholders meeting. I was gonna sit on your knee and ask you whats the first thing that pops in your head

[Nitaa]

oil she's up, $NZ continues its slide and Dow (should rename it to DOWn) is par for the course down around 70 points at last count

[Sehnsucht888]

I see the brokers are still giving their vote for NZO.

February 2009 broker views on NZOs site:
Credit Suisse outperform valuation of NZ$1.72 target NZ$1.90
Forsyth Barr buy valuation of NZ$1.74
ABN AMRO buy valuation of NZ$1.70
Macquarie outperform valuation of NZ$1.90

All but Macquaries are dated after the rock fall at Pike too, so its either factored in already, or not considered significant to effect price much.

Plenty of upside here providing oil doesn't tank, and things settle down. Article in the dominion yesterday I think commenting that Opec thought that current prices are still too low to sustain, and talking about more cuts, so significant drops are unlikely in the medium term.

[Nitaa]

Phaedrus.

Could you kindly do a chart on nzo. Volume has been increasing of late with a rising sp. Interested to see if its broken any trend lines from a TA point of view.

Thanks in advance

[Xerof]

Nita, a break of and hold above 140 is needed to get things going to the upside IMO, so todays activity might prove interesting, given the proximity to that level

[Dr_Who]

I see the brokers are still giving their vote for NZO.

February 2009 broker views on NZOs site:
Credit Suisse outperform valuation of NZ$1.72 target NZ$1.90
Forsyth Barr buy valuation of NZ$1.74
ABN AMRO buy valuation of NZ$1.70
Macquarie outperform valuation of NZ$1.90

All but Macquaries are dated after the rock fall at Pike too, so its either factored in already, or not considered significant to effect price much.

Plenty of upside here providing oil doesn't tank, and things settle down. Article in the dominion yesterday I think commenting that Opec thought that current prices are still too low to sustain, and talking about more cuts, so significant drops are unlikely in the medium term.


Brokers have a BUY recommendation?

A good reason to sell.

[Sehnsucht888]

Brokers have a BUY recommendation?

A good reason to sell.

Gee, and we weren't all waiting for that comment..

[777]

Well there is very little else on the NZ market worth a buy recommendation.

[Phaedrus]

Phaedrus. Could you kindly do a chart on NZO? Volume has been increasing of late with a rising sp. Interested to see if its broken any trend lines from a TA point of view.

No, no trendline breaks, Nita - there haven't been any for a while now. Looking good, though. See the nice steadily rising OBV plot, complete with its own confirmed unbroken trendline? Note the excellent correlation between the OBV derived signals and the price trendline breaks. Often they were triggered on the same day.

NZO is in a short-term (2 week) uptrend,
a medium-term (5 month) uptrend,
and a long-term (6 year) uptrend.
That's about as good as it gets.

Readers here must be sick and tired of my harping on about "never buying in a downtrend". Don't forget the other side of the coin.

Never sell in an uptrend.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/NZO310.gif

[Nitaa]

Phaedrus.

Many thanks for your posts. Your a legend with your charts.

Note, looking at the charts, my last purchase of nzo was about the second week of Oct when it i bought them at $1.13. What i would say is that looking at the chats i defintately bought them on a downtrend where it continued to $1.08 about 1 week later. At the time my decision was purely on FA. I think even if i can considered TA of only being 10% of my decision i would not have bought.

I agree with Xerof that $1.40 is the magic mark from a TA view point. That where there has been resistance twice in the past.

Did you buy nzo? If so at what point and why.

ps. I value your input and although i wont aLways agree you, overall you provide the most insight analysis and charts on these forums

Regards,

Nita

[peat]

a legend with your charts.

heheh

my TA POV on this stock is that is giving confused signals in the short/medium term as the triangle that formed from Oct - Jan (which would normally be a continuation pattern and hence bearish) failed in its upwards breakout and although its trying again there will probably be a lot of resistance at this level now

[geezy]

someone just put a rocket on NZO's wheels.


any connection with Dr.Who and MacDunk? Coz they sound very similar

[Casa del Energia]

Phaedrus, tu es uno legend - thanks.

Anyone got any good rumours - vis-a-vis 124 trades, 1.3 million traded. What's up, doc?

Pike is in misery pit today - 70c can't be fun for pike holders. Think there's any connection? - or should I just take my pills?

[Nitaa]

Strong buying people. Penetration of $1.40 may occur depending on how deep the buyers pockets are and how cocky they feel. Watch for volume for all you TA buffs

[Sehnsucht888]

Through 1.40 and buyers at 1.40 on big volume today... could be time for a break out

[Xerof]

What resistance @ $1.40? :D

At the risk of repeating........


there has been resistance twice in the past.


Thats all.....purely technical, but a CLOSE above 140 is an excellent signal for further strength

[Sehnsucht888]

I put my money on a close below - someone will make sure that happens....

[Sehnsucht888]

Well, I'm quite happy to be wrong in this instance.

[Paddie]

And if the price of oil goes up again tomorrow we may see the share price heading towards
conversion price.

That would be nice.

Paddie

[boysy]

the price of tapis actually went down overnight to under us$50 so hopefully this price moves upwards

[Nitaa]

someone just put a rocket on NZO's wheels.


any connection with Dr.Who and MacDunk? Coz they sound very similarI think you got him pegged

[Dr_Who]

NZO sp going up is abit like having sex for the first time in your life, it usually dont last very long before it is all over. But then again, you know that you may get another chance for another go soon enough. Enjoy the brief moment of joy. LOL ;)

... and no me and McDunky are not the same person.

[Nitaa]

NZO sp going up is abit like having sex for the first time in your life, it usually dont last very long before it is all over. But then again, you know that you may get another chance for another go soon enough. Enjoy the brief moment of joy. LOL ;)

... and no me and McDunky are not the same person.You and McDunk not the same? No fricken way.

Dr. I liked your quote above. At least you made me laugh there. Good on you for finding your sense of humour.

[geezy]

Well said Nita.

I m waiting for Macdunk to come out and prove himself he is different from the rest, Dr Who included :)

[STRAT]

any connection with Dr.Who and MacDunk? Coz they sound very similarHaha Geezy. I can assure you they are not :D

[upside_umop]

Haha Geezy. I can assure you they are not :D

If its who we think Dr Who is eh Strat...:rolleyes:

[shasta]

If its who we think Dr Who is eh Strat...:rolleyes:

Isn't Strat the old Sniper? :eek:

[Dr_Who]

HAHAHA... buy the rumour, sell the facts. :D

This market and the ST forum is full or rumours and gossips. :eek:

The only similarity btw me and McDunky is that we are both cashed up and enjoying the fall of this market. Those that choose to listen will learn something, those that dont will just have to endure the pain of capital losses.