NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[notie]

maybe an slim chance they might find some gas, but in this case it won't be a Kupe and likely to be uncommercial....

good luck guys as you will need it

[blockhead]

maybe an slim chance they might find some gas, but in this case it won't be a Kupe and likely to be uncommercial....

good luck guys as you will need it

We dont need too much luck Notie, already got producing oil wells, now we are lookin for more, its not all luck you know, more to it than that but if it is all a duster I guess you have your day.

[temuk]

Nice photo in the ecan news blocky.

[blockhead]

Nice photo in the ecan news blocky.

I hope the next photo you see has me leaning against my new GT3 but at the moment the sp is headed in the wrong direction !!

[manxman]

I hope the next photo you see has me leaning against my new GT3 but at the moment the sp is headed in the wrong direction !!

Wasn't it supposed to be a cerise Cadillac



...the music that excels is the sound of oil wells
as they slurp slurp slurp into the barrel

Old Fashioned NZO Carol. Merry Christmas all.

[BigBob]

NZOG (New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd) advises that the Albacore-1 well has reached its total depth with only traces of hydrocarbons found.

Drilling proceeded ahead of schedule over the weekend, with Albacore-1 reaching a total depth of 2133m at 02:00 hours on Sunday 13 December.

Wireline logs are currently being run to gather additional information. However, based on only traces of hydrocarbons having been found, the well is non-commercial. Once the logging is completed, the well will be plugged and abandoned as planned.

Albacore-1 is an exploration well located 70km north of New Plymouth in the northern offshore Taranaki basin. Drilling using the ENSCO-107 jack-up rig began on 5 December 2009.

The ENSCO-107 is returning to Singapore following completion of drilling at Albacore, with a heavy-lift vessel due to arrive later this week.

Albacore is the first of at least four wells in NZOG’s summer drilling programme. The other scheduled wells – an exploration well called Hoki, and two appraisal wells near the Tui oil field – will be drilled by the Kan Tan IV semi-submersible rig, which is currently due to arrive in New Zealand in late January.

[blockhead]

What !!!!! I was counting on Albacore too

[blockhead]

So whats next, Hoki and Tui next year ??

[shambles]

I feel your pain Blocky...
Not expected news - watch the sp nose dive.
What a shambles

[Corporate]

Does anyone know how much this cost to drill approx?

[shawsie]

Interesting to see how little upside was priced in for Albacore, this morning fall is no more than range trading, or impact of a falling POO.

or perhaps just fundamentally correct, long term chance of a gusher = 10%, then the 6cent (3%) fall given a duster prices the value of a gusher at 60 cents, or around $200m.

thoughts?

and not your drivel thanks sechensuct

[foolme]

how about the nzx is not very liquid and most dealers in the know have pretty much discounted nzoo stock as being a bit of a joke.

How right you are.

[Casa del Energia]

Does anyone know how much this cost to drill approx?

Not 'a lot' - I remember one analyst saying a dry albacore only had a 5c downside on the sp. Might be even cheaper as the drill went like greased lightening.

I was getting a little concerned that the drilling was going so fast - it has the feel that the overlying strata too soft, or shattered, or broken. It all leaked out through the holes. Could it be that area of the north Taranaki basin is chock full of shatter zones..

[Doyle]

Announcement hasn't even registered on mainstream media yet, I think she will fall a little more yet. Should find support around $1.57.

[Nevl]

Given they brought an extra 40% of this well just a few months ago it doesn't suggest the directors are good at analysing prelim reports.

[notie]

Given they brought an extra 40% of this well just a few months ago it doesn't suggest the directors are good at analysing prelim reports.

Probably cost them 15-18 million USD.

Not really a surprise that it is a non result

[arjay]

Given they brought an extra 40% of this well just a few months ago it doesn't suggest the directors are good at analysing prelim reports.


An interesting observation Nevl - NOG has had no luck disocvering hydrocarbons since Eric Matthews left the company. I must say though, I'm impressed with this rig - it drilled a 20-day hole in less than 10.

[Bilo]

An interesting observation Nevl - NOG has had no luck disocvering hydrocarbons since Eric Matthews left the company. I must say though, I'm impressed with this rig - it drilled a 20-day hole in less than 10.
Just as well they are logging it - would have gone straight thru any zones of interest without noticing that there was anything there, other than traces. In a hurry to get home for Christmas and didn't want to provide any excuses to be kept on a rig while the world parties. Wait for the results. NZO's interest is in the whole area not just one well.

[arjay]

Just as well they are logging it - would have gone straight thru any zones of interest without noticing that there was anything there, other than traces. In a hurry to get home for Christmas and didn't want to provide any excuses to be kept on a rig while the world parties. Wait for the results. NZO's interest is in the whole area not just one well.

Fair comment - when they first drilled Tui there was a very small announcement afterwards of a possible 'small oilfield'.

[fish]

Fair comment - when they first drilled Tui there was a very small announcement afterwards of a possible 'small oilfield'.
Cant help feeling there has been an over-reaction to the findings of this drill.
It was a wildcat and had only a small chance of a big commercial success.
In effect it should have had only a small downside but big upside .
It has cost nzo only a small portion of its large us$ cash hoard .
This will be tax-deductable this year in full .

In Feb we are going to see at least 2 TUI appraisal wells drilled .
There is a high chance these will be commercial and tagged onto current production facilities .

[troyvdh]

I agree Fish...this company has been around for yonks...the fact that folk bail...so quickly is an unfortunate indication of our/some investing priorties...'quick buck" mentality...these folk have no comprehension of wealth...just short term gains...at all costs...

[patrick]

FISH
I agree but my concern is the cost of all those people in Head Office.

[Doyle]

Cant help feeling there has been an over-reaction to the findings of this drill.
It was a wildcat and had only a small chance of a big commercial success.
In effect it should have had only a small downside but big upside .
It has cost nzo only a small portion of its large us$ cash hoard .
This will be tax-deductable this year in full .

In Feb we are going to see at least 2 TUI appraisal wells drilled .
There is a high chance these will be commercial and tagged onto current production facilities .

Agree but to my mind at 1.70+ SP some of this upside had been priced in. Therefore the SP needs to drop to reflect this.

[digger]

Agree but to my mind at 1.70+ SP some of this upside had been priced in. Therefore the SP needs to drop to reflect this.

Albacore was a disappointment but it was always a wildcat. The board was quitely confident that the chances of success was more than the 1 in 10 i like to leave any odds predrill. The two coming up around TUI have about 1 in 4 and i hope not more than that gets talked about or factored in. But hey this is all part of being an oiler. Still time for a success as we have had our failure quote. Noti is having his day.

On the morning report today it had a bit about Albacore coming up dry.The comment was that about 3 cents should have come off the SP but then markets always over react.Well more on the the next one.
Forget how did the speed drill time get so fast,or how did the Expected time to drill the well get so far out?

[Mr Tommy]

Forget how did the speed drill time get so fast,or how did the Expected time to drill the well get so far out?

Well spudded 5/12 at 14:00
On 7/12 at 6:00 it was at 419m
On 11/12 at 6:00 it was at 1173m
On 13/12 at 2:00 it was at 2133m

So they drilled nearly 1000m in under 2 days, thats pretty fast.

[the machine]

Well spudded 5/12 at 14:00
On 7/12 at 6:00 it was at 419m
On 11/12 at 6:00 it was at 1173m
On 13/12 at 2:00 it was at 2133m

So they drilled nearly 1000m in under 2 days, thats pretty fast.

reminds me of the kiwi drill where exceptional drill rates achieved - drilling into water logged dirt


m

[Bilo]

Well spudded 5/12 at 14:00
On 7/12 at 6:00 it was at 419m
On 11/12 at 6:00 it was at 1173m
On 13/12 at 2:00 it was at 2133m

So they drilled nearly 1000m in under 2 days, thats pretty fast.

Drilling at 20m/hr if the pay zone was 5m they would have had 15min to get a sniff of the oil - slim chance of being awake at the right time. Boardering on careless IMO.

[fabs]

Can Chris Roberts perhaps comment on Bilos Post No.9068

[notie]

Can Chris Roberts perhaps comment on Bilos Post No.9068

like both of them know what they are talking about:rolleyes:

[Casa del Energia]

Arn't they sending down a wireline logger - that will snoop anything out. Personally - I wouldn't bother - the rock must be so soft that even if there was a faint little whisp of schist, or gneiss for a cap - the rest is probably so mushy there would be no pores to contain anything - cant store oil in soft compressable rock - same as there is no oil in marble or olivine.

[Chris Roberts]

The beauty of this forum is it allows shareholders a chance to gossip, speculate and voice their opinions. It's often entertaining. Unfortunately when it comes to technical matters like drilling, it's almost inevitably wildly inaccurate. (A little bit of knowledge can be a dangerous thing).

No, we did not drill too fast, and we did not miss anything. This was a very competently managed drill.
Yes, we have done a range of logs and down-hole tests. We will have a great deal of information to assess and incorporate into our general understanding of the northern Taranaki basin.

We now look forward in 2010 to drilling the Hoki exploration well and the Tui appraisal wells.
Merry Xmas!

[fabs]

Thanks for that Chris and Comliments of the Season to You too.
Fabs

[fabs]

A bit to quick on the button, i meant Compliments.

[Casa del Energia]

Well, I had always guessed that doing Geology was a waste of time, The only field trip I clearly remember was the one to examine conglomerates in the wiarapa. I had a stinker of a hangover from a student party - - and quite frankly I could have done without digging up stupid bits of ancient riverbed. If I had only known at the time that the whole jamboree would have only qualifed me to comment on NOT much at all - - then I wouldn't have bothered.
Should have put my geology text books in the dumspter decades ago - well, I mean one of them has a picture of oil rig that is built out of timber - - so I guess I'm just an ancient fossil myeslf - and too ignorant to comment on this modern whipper snapper stuff they do now days.

[peterfindlay]

It is nice to see Tapis at $US77+ with a return to a decent premium over and above WTI.

[arjay]

one of them has a picture of oil rig that is built out of timber - -.

Oh yeh, Opito - that brings back memories. I wonder whatever happend to that sidetrack.......

[Casa del Energia]

Oh yeh, Opito - that brings back memories. I wonder whatever happend to that sidetrack.......

No, the photo I have is of somewhere in Texas - it was memorable because it was a 'gusher' - with the slightly unfortunatle bonus of returning all of the drilling pipe to the surface as well - - the photo showed this dirty great black peice of spaghetti ejected hundreds of feet into the air - the spaghetti was 5 inch drilling pipe.

Bet you they were mopping that one up for a while.

[Misc]

Was just reading how NZO partner ADX has picked up 8 blocks in Romania today with no mention of NZO or NXS as partners. Have NZO been shafted here? M

[Crypto Crude]

hey misc,
interesting you mention ADX...
The Romanian connection is going to bear fruits for NZO down the line...
Salisbury really knows what he is on about...
he has a good background in the region, with his time at OMV...
and guess what,
OMV are positioned with permits in there too...

ADX is shaping up to be the next BCC, MEO, MOG or what not of 2010, with the contracted rig of Sambuca, a deep water big target well that should send ADX up to 20cents on hype in the lead up to this well...
im looking for an entry in early 2010...

NZO have a 15% holding of ADX?
am I correct in saying this...

I will probably play on NGE before ADX...
:cool:
.^sc

[notie]

hey misc,
interesting you mention ADX...
The Romanian connection is going to bear fruits for NZO down the line...
Salisbury really knows what he is on about...
he has a good background in the region, with his time at OMV...
and guess what,
OMV are positioned with permits in there too...

ADX is shaping up to be the next BCC, MEO, MOG or what not of 2010, with the contracted rig of Sambuca, a deep water big target well that should send ADX
.^sc

Good luck to nzog with rumania. really is it going to bear fruit? Former communist block country with poorly developed oilfields which are probably in a bit of a mess after being produced for 100 years. The words money pit come to mind and what expertise can nzog bring to this? They only run 1 permit in offshore nz and have not been involved in any onshore oil field developments since the days of Ngatoro several years ago.

nzog ran out of ideas a long time ago and that is bearing fruit now.

[manxman]

No, the photo I have is of somewhere in Texas - it was memorable because it was a 'gusher' - with the slightly unfortunatle bonus of returning all of the drilling pipe to the surface as well - - the photo showed this dirty great black peice of spaghetti ejected hundreds of feet into the air - the spaghetti was 5 inch drilling pipe.

Bet you they were mopping that one up for a while.

I remember seeing the movie of this, some time in the early sixties. A fellow called Red Adair eventually tamed the beast, but it took a while because they had to remove all the spaghetti before they could get the fire out. The Red Adair Co was only founded in 1959 and I think this was the biggie that made their reputation.
If you think it's expensive to hire a professional to do the job, wait until you hire an amateur.

[Misc]

Romania has produced 4.5billion barrels of oil and about 13TCF gas over the past 100 years , the Govt enforced relinquishment of blocks by Romgas and Petrom offers opportunity but yes I agree seems along way removed from NZOs 'knitting'. Perhaps they have dropped the idea now and ADX is going it alone as per yesterdays announcement? M

[fabs]

Meanwhile over in Oz, MCC after recent Aquisitions and a market cap of several billions, is considering up the number of Directors from 7 to 9 [ NZO 8-9 ]

INTERESTING?

[the machine]

kan tan IV now at final depth and wrapping up program - should be moving to NZ in a few days for HOKI 1

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01026415

M

[Casa del Energia]

kan tan IV now at final depth and wrapping up program - should be moving to NZ in a few days for HOKI 1

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01026415

M

And AWE's sp has benefited by 4c so far today - lets hope the oil gods smile on Kan Tan twice in a row.

[fish]

Have had a small order in to buy more nzo at 165 cents since before xmas that still is only partially traded .
World oil prices and gas -both current and futures looking very healthy so Would be good to see the NZ market respond

[Casa del Energia]

Have had a small order in to buy more nzo at 165 cents since before xmas that still is only partially traded .
World oil prices and gas -both current and futures looking very healthy so Would be good to see the NZ market respond

Hmm - might be opening your new years bubbly without it filled - $1.67 this morning.

[blockhead]

Hmm - might be opening your new years bubbly without it filled - $1.67 this morning.

But Casa sad and all as we maybe for Fish we are not entirely unhappy with the direction of the sp are we ??

Perhaps I will be able to start looking at GT3 brochures again soon, come on Hoki !!

[777]

Have had a small order in to buy more nzo at 165 cents since before xmas that still is only partially traded .
World oil prices and gas -both current and futures looking very healthy so Would be good to see the NZ market respond

Since there is only one buyer at 1.65 then I like the size of your small orders.

[fish]

[QUOTE=blockhead;287342]But Casa sad and all as we maybe for Fish we are not entirely unhappy with the direction of the sp are we ??

Perhaps I will be able to start looking at GT3 brochures again soon, come on Hoki

I am also waiting to hear how Kupe is producing -I feel a pleasant surprise is overdue .

Also the circa Tui drills after Hoki imho have a high chance of success.

[digger]

[QUOTE=blockhead;287342]But Casa sad and all as we maybe for Fish we are not entirely unhappy with the direction of the sp are we ??

Perhaps I will be able to start looking at GT3 brochures again soon, come on Hoki

I am also waiting to hear how Kupe is producing -I feel a pleasant surprise is overdue .

Also the circa Tui drills after Hoki imho have a high chance of success.


Fish your point about Kupe is my thoughts as well,however to keep the lid on these circa Tui drills remember the chance of failure here is still greater than success.Now whichever view we take will make no difference to the outcome of the drill,but will make a big difference to our expectations.Sadly we have had a big run of failures lately and i would like to see little the future drills come and go with only a small built in hope of success.Dashed dreams have a devasting effect on the SP when they should not have been there in the first place. Naturally here i am talking only from a long term holder point of view as trader lives by hope and depression,thrills and spills.I do not want to encourage it.

[fish]

[QUOTE=digger;287373][QUOTE=fish;287364]

Hi Digger,

I agree with your sentiments about high hopes then dashed dreams having too negative an effect on the sp do you really feel the drills are more likely to be failures than success ?
Albacore was a wildcat and failure expected-hoki is likely to be a duster as well-but AWE involvement I find a positive .
Circa Tui are appraisal wells and likely to hold hydrocarbons -I would have thought with two drills there would be a more than 50% chance that one would be commercial at current oil prices and ease of tying back into tui .
NZO currently looks very cheap based on its assets-cash in us dollars,kupe,tui , prc ,ppp, intellectual knowledge and permits . The current drills if successful will be icing on the cake

[the machine]

[QUOTE=fish;287364]


Fish your point about Kupe is my thoughts as well,however to keep the lid on these circa Tui drills remember the chance of failure here is still greater than success.Now whichever view we take will make no difference to the outcome of the drill,but will make a big difference to our expectations.Sadly we have had a big run of failures lately and i would like to see little the future drills come and go with only a small built in hope of success.Dashed dreams have a devasting effect on the SP when they should not have been there in the first place. Naturally here i am talking only from a long term holder point of view as trader lives by hope and depression,thrills and spills.I do not want to encourage it.


digger, kupes been producing for 4 weeks now so no news is good news.

feel for you re ppp

you could always have a look at an investment in tin & gold like I did when swapped out of ppp earlier this year.

M

[geezy]

i cant help but feel that Pike is holding NZO's Sp back, and without much going on at the moment after the Albacore disapointment, the SP will continue to lag until we have sorted the Pike issue, i think in short term thats the only boost to the SP, unless of course we strike at Hoki.

Disc: Hold NZO and will continue to do but wont add just yet

[Oiler]

[quote=digger;287373]


digger, kupes been producing for 4 weeks now so no news is good news.

feel for you re ppp

you could always have a look at an investment in tin & gold like I did when swapped out of ppp earlier this year.

M

If the number of lime green tankers on SH3 to and from the tank farm are any indication, then the news has to be good ;)

[the machine]

[quote=the machine;287401]

If the number of lime green tankers on SH3 to and from the tank farm are any indication, then the news has to be good ;)

Hey oiler, is it the same colour tankers carting LPG and Condensate?

all the best

M

[manxman]

Circa Tui are appraisal wells and likely to hold hydrocarbons -I would have thought with two drills there would be a more than 50% chance that one would be commercial at current oil prices and ease of tying back into tui .


And if there is nothing commercial in the new appraisal wells, we can possibly look forward to the drilling of TUI 4H production well in short order, and an upgrade of reserves. There is only one spare production slot on the Umuroa and they obviously don't want to tie it up with Tui until all other options have been explored.

[Oiler]

[quote=Oiler;287419]

Hey oiler, is it the same colour tankers carting LPG and Condensate?

all the best

M

Machine

The lime green tankers are not carrying LPG. ;)

I have no doubt there are LPG tankers trucking out of Kupe but they are probably scattered amongst all the other LPG tankers moving around the province/country.

[the machine]

nz drilling program might be delayed if awe sidetrack in bass strait after finding oil/gas, but thinking of looking down dip.

guess will know in a day or so.

M

[777]

I love these notices from the company that the NZX published. They tell us, the shareholders, absolutely nothing. Yet both the company and the NZX say that the market is informed.

NZO
07/01/2010
GENERAL

REL: 1133 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited

GENERAL: NZO: Response to an ASX Query - Director`s Interest Notice

New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited have provided NZX with a copy of the Reponse
to an ASX Query.
End CA:00189976 For:NZO Type:GENERAL Time:2010-01-07:11:33:04

[Silverlight]

Here are the two attachements:

https://www.i-search.nzx.com/blobs/NZSE0000/2010/325175/NZSE0000-112568.pdf

https://www.i-search.nzx.com/blobs/NZSE0000/2010/325175/NZSE0000-112569.pdf

[winner69]

I love these notices from the company that the NZX published. They tell us, the shareholders, absolutely nothing. Yet both the company and the NZX say that the market is informed.

NZO
07/01/2010
GENERAL

REL: 1133 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited

GENERAL: NZO: Response to an ASX Query - Director`s Interest Notice

New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited have provided NZX with a copy of the Reponse
to an ASX Query.
End CA:00189976 For:NZO Type:GENERAL Time:2010-01-07:11:33:04

sign up to mynzx at www.nzx.com

You get the full announcements ... in real time as well (no 20 minute delay) ... its free

So no more complaints please .... just joking

[777]

Thanks Silverlight and winner69. Still think the full facts should be in the announcement issued. Having to sign up to get them is archaic thinking. But then we are dealing with the NZX.

[Silverlight]

I agree that, however if the information is material then it is required that all salient points be in the text. It would be ideal if all information was in the text, but sometimes this is impossible, the attachements are pdfs from the the ASX, ever tried copying and pasting a pdf. Pure nightmare.

I think the NZX have come a long way, yes you have to log in, but you can keep yourself permanently logged in, or save login details saved in your internat application.

I think their upgrades have had a number of problems, problems all companies face when out sourcing their website, but credit where credit is due. All retail investors have full access to real time information with just a few clicks of a mouse button.

[biker]

The NZX is running a business pure and simple. The more hits they can get on their web site the better. Inconvenienced investors is of no concern to them. Arrogant and discourteous in my view, but cant see it changing. Oh, and on the side, aren't they also the regulator?

[biker]

I agree that, however if the information is material then it is required that all salient points be in the text. It would be ideal if all information was in the text, but sometimes this is impossible, the attachements are pdfs from the the ASX, ever tried copying and pasting a pdf. Pure nightmare.

I think the NZX have come a long way, yes you have to log in, but you can keep yourself permanently logged in, or save login details saved in your internat application.

I think their upgrades have had a number of problems, problems all companies face when out sourcing their website, but credit where credit is due. All retail investors have full access to real time information with just a few clicks of a mouse button.

A few clicks of the mouse button shouldn't be required. The announcement itself should contain all the information. The pdf issue is a red herring.
Silverlight, are you part of the NZX outfit? In which case, I guess you are required to push the barrow.

[the machine]

nz drilling program now pushed back a month by the rockhopper sidetrack

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01027910

M

[Silverlight]

Biker, I have grown up in a time where I have to make do with what I have. I praise improvements that make things easier, and try not to grumble about the small things, as they are a distraction and noise to my investments.

You can whine about NZX all you want, I couldn't care less, I was just trying to be helpful as I am quite new to these forums.

[biker]

Biker, I have grown up in a time where I have to make do with what I have. I praise improvements that make things easier, and try not to grumble about the small things, as they are a distraction and noise to my investments.

.

Me too and I totally agree. If only the NZX would make things easier!
Apologies to readers for the off topic comments. No more on this from me.

[Bixbite]

sign up to mynzx at www.nzx.com

You get the full announcements ... in real time as well (no 20 minute delay) ... its free

So no more complaints please .... just joking

winner69

I followed your suggestion to sign up to www.nzx.com some months ago. But I have never get any “the full announcements…” from them.

Could you give details for the procedure?

Many thanks
Bixbite

[fabs]

Meanwhile, over in OZ, Oil + Coal Shares Up,up and away!

[Casa del Energia]

Musings (or general ramblings) of an investor who finally got through the last of the Xmas ham.

Watching my little portfolio pre and post Christmas gradually increase across the board has given me great pleasure. Of a little bit of sadness are two bits of this little hoard have not moved an inch – no prizes what they are –NZO & PRC of course.

Worried? Annoyed? Bail out? No, not in the least.

I’ve never had any intention to trade out of NZO (and pike) so the lack of sp increase is irrelevant (to me). For a while, I was terribly exposed by being overweight – but that was easily solved by buying ‘other stuff’ during the market bottom – proven to be the ‘right move’ – as it was during the last recession (early 90s).

Why so sanguine? – Well, here’s a reason:

The Chinese effectively sabotaged the Copenhagen talks by sending a second tier negotiator into the closed door talks with the US and European heads of state. Without going into the ins and outs of it - A second tactic used by the Chinese delegation was to prevent the US and Europeans setting any target at all so that there would be no danger that China would have to do the same at some future time. Even more brilliant is that the West copped the blame for it – (Apparently, Angela Merkel got so annoyed at the tactics that she banged her microphone in anger).

This is only one example of the ‘actual truth’ about energy demand with respect to oil and coal – it will be cold day in hell when ‘The Developing Countries’ reduce their demand. Therefore the implications for the value of the reserves in Kupe, Tui and the buller seam are quite apparent. Thus – the present NZO (and Pike) price is nothing near the long run demand implications.

Meanwhile (having hedged bets a little) my ASX resource stocks have done spectacularly over November, December to now - and I expect them to continue for the same reason(s) given above. But economics is not driven purely by logic and in my personal case – a good deal of the reason for holding NZO & PRC is ‘patriotism’ – yup, that’s right, might sound naff these days – but please be aware that just this morning I cruised on down to ‘Flagmakers’ to buy a replacement for my wind battered NZ flag and the nice new one is proudly flying in the Wellington breeze. Yes – I could have saved $275 dollars and not bother with a flag – I could have made a bigger paper gain by only buying Aussie resources and certainly face far less risk with Aussie coal. I think it would be well for the directors of both companies to note that not all shareholders are ‘in it’ for entirely mercenary reasons.

So – while I watch the much gnashing of teeth and cries of woe with the dry wildcat and difficulties with cavins and grabens, delayed rigs and side issues over Romanian adventures - - I remain relaxed knowing that I and this country will benefit BIG TIME in the final outcome. And, by the way, the Christmas ham was delicious.

(Rider clause: Yes – it may seem perverse to be apparently gleeful over Copenhagen sinking faster than an anti-whaling protest boat – it’s just that it demonstrates that my take on human nature is not incorrect – and therefore my investment decisions are probably not going to be a financial disaster – even if it is a planetary disaster).

[fish]

[QUOTE=Casa del Energia;288372]Musings (or general ramblings) of an investor who finally got through the last of the Xmas ham.

Watching my little portfolio pre and post Christmas gradually increase across the board has given me great pleasure. Of a little bit of sadness are two bits of this little hoard have not moved an inch – no prizes what they are –NZO & PRC of course.

Worried? Annoyed? Bail out? No, not in the least.

Similar sentiments to many of us .
At least it gives us a further opportunity to buy more at a very cheap price .
As NZO has no debts and a good income from tui and kupe delays in exploration/prc production are of no adverse signicant consequence .
In fact long term it may enable better prices/returns .
China(and india) needs lots oil and steel .
Current prices oil and coking coal will look cheap next year .

[Casa del Energia]

Similar sentiments to many of us .
At least it gives us a further opportunity to buy more at a very cheap price .
As NZO has no debts and a good income from tui and kupe delays in exploration/prc production are of no adverse signicant consequence .
In fact long term it may enable better prices/returns .
China(and india) needs lots oil and steel .
Current prices oil and coking coal will look cheap next year .

Oh Yes! - Forgot about the 'no debt' situation - So the share holders own it all - and no else gets thier snout in the trough when it comes to profit tallying.
All the more reason to savour the situation.

[fish]

Oh Yes! - Forgot about the 'no debt' situation - So the share holders own it all - and no else gets thier snout in the trough when it comes to profit tallying.
All the more reason to savour the situation.

So much to nzo that is not reflected in the sp.
For instance in the last week gas prices in the states(henry hub) have increased by 30%.
NZO have a 15% share of Kupe-it used to be said that the real value of this field lies in the condensate .I guess it could be many months before we are told the value of the gas it is producing-I suspect it is substantial .

[troyvdh]

Im waiting for sir Digger to respond.

[notie]

So much to nzo that is not reflected in the sp.
For instance in the last week gas prices in the states(henry hub) have increased by 30%.
NZO have a 15% share of Kupe-it used to be said that the real value of this field lies in the condensate .I guess it could be many months before we are told the value of the gas it is producing-I suspect it is substantial .

Ahh gas prices are not going to change very much in NZ just because the market is spiking in the states.

You guys can talk up your amazing investment in nzo while other resource stocks around the world are kicking off.

Tui is depleting and while kupe's condensate will bring some money in for this company it is revenue that is already factored in for it. Don't expect the share price to take off.

The big issue for this company is the upcoming tui wells. There is a good chance one will come in, or maybe both, but there is a large element of risk. If they are successful it will extend the life of tui, but it is bad news for nzo if they aren't goers.

That leaves hoki which is a complete wildcat and probably a low chance of success.

So where does that leave this company if these opportunities don't come off? NZO needs to get a bit more aggressive and get into running its own searching for oil if it wants to make something of its investment war chest. Unfortunately based on past experience and its current strategy this is not going to happen.

Until they change their game plan they can talk it up all they like but one day they will have to walk the walk and actually go looking for oil and gas instead of relaying on other partners to do the hard work. They appear to be far too risk adverse to back themselves past 15% holding in anything (Albacore the exception though).

[the machine]

Ahh gas prices are not going to change very much in NZ just because the market is spiking in the states.

You guys can talk up your amazing investment in nzo while other resource stocks around the world are kicking off.

Tui is depleting and while kupe's condensate will bring some money in for this company it is revenue that is already factored in for it. Don't expect the share price to take off.

The big issue for this company is the upcoming tui wells. There is a good chance one will come in, or maybe both, but there is a large element of risk. If they are successful it will extend the life of tui, but it is bad news for nzo if they aren't goers.

That leaves hoki which is a complete wildcat and probably a low chance of success.

So where does that leave this company if these opportunities don't come off? NZO needs to get a bit more aggressive and get into running its own searching for oil if it wants to make something of its investment war chest. Unfortunately based on past experience and its current strategy this is not going to happen.

Until they change their game plan they can talk it up all they like but one day they will have to walk the walk and actually go looking for oil and gas instead of relaying on other partners to do the hard work. They appear to be far too risk adverse to back themselves past 15% holding in anything (Albacore the exception though).

seems like 33% of romanian studies is the answer your looking for, gearing up for formal applications when exploration and development applications released [of course the studies have to get to first base though]

m

[fish]

Ahh gas prices are not going to change very much in NZ just because the market is spiking in the states.



So where does that leave this company if these opportunities don't come off? NZO needs to get a bit more aggressive and get into running its own searching for oil if it wants to make something of its investment war chest. Unfortunately based on past experience and its current strategy this is not going to happen.

Until they change their game plan they can talk it up all they like but one day they will have to walk the walk and actually go looking for oil and gas instead of relaying on other partners to do the hard work. They appear to be far too risk adverse to back themselves past 15% holding in anything (Albacore the exception though).

Notie you will never see the sun shining for nzo like I do .
With money in the bank and great income they are a low risk company .Excellent probability of increasing that income .
They need to continue their low risk approach and great care in appraising future projects .
Albacore shows it is easy to gamble too much on wildcats-I would rather they kept it to 15%.
The current low sp is a buying opportunity-I bought more a couple of days ago.
I do agree with you that at least one of the tui drills is likely to find an accumulation of oil-clearly it is risky but will add value to nzo if successful .

[digger]

Ahh gas prices are not going to change very much in NZ just because the market is spiking in the states.

You guys can talk up your amazing investment in nzo while other resource stocks around the world are kicking off.

Tui is depleting and while kupe's condensate will bring some money in for this company it is revenue that is already factored in for it. Don't expect the share price to take off.

The big issue for this company is the upcoming tui wells. There is a good chance one will come in, or maybe both, but there is a large element of risk. If they are successful it will extend the life of tui, but it is bad news for nzo if they aren't goers.

That leaves hoki which is a complete wildcat and probably a low chance of success.

So where does that leave this company if these opportunities don't come off? NZO needs to get a bit more aggressive and get into running its own searching for oil if it wants to make something of its investment war chest. Unfortunately based on past experience and its current strategy this is not going to happen.

Until they change their game plan they can talk it up all they like but one day they will have to walk the walk and actually go looking for oil and gas instead of relaying on other partners to do the hard work. They appear to be far too risk adverse to back themselves past 15% holding in anything (Albacore the exception though).

The situation with NZO is certainly trying at the present time.Perpetual patience is forever being called upon,while other oilers are doing better.
We needed the wildcat Albacore but it just is not coming to the party.Not much was factored into the SP but it is still a felt disappointment,following a string of dry well after Pateke.
Pike has held back NZO now for about two years and we wait for this final push through the Garbon.Any day now we should be back into coal and with the next 400 metres being conformed as coal some of the major problems from Pike will be finally behind us.The only good news here is the climbing value of coal. Maybe some day we will get started.For about 10 years now i have been backing Pike as a long term good earner but now think it is time the earning started and the theory about a coal mine gets turned into an actual producing one.
I do not agree with Oiler that Kupe is fully factored in.In fact my feeling is that Kupe has been soooooo long in the oven it is mostly factored out as being since 1968 a thing that is always about 5 years away.The risk that something will go wrong is still having a negative outcome so when again any day now we finally hear the start up plant is working as expected and producing the SP will respond to the removed risk.
The drilling getting put back a month was privately talked about at the AGM and in fact some AWE directors hopes are turning out as exactally as their fondest wishes wanted. Tough for our current drilling plays but it is exactally what AWE wanted.For NZO this just becomes one more thing we just have to patiently wait out. If the next three drills are all unsuccessful we will take a hit but not as much as as the positive effect of getting Pike and Kupe up and finally earning income.
Oiler your comment about NZO backing itself has lots of risks. We backed ourselfs with Hochstetter and nearly went under.I think the latest technology is too expensive for just one company to go it alone.Going in with other not only spreads the cost but the expertices as well.
So we are all just left still waiting.
Cheers and lets all hope for a successful new year.

[winner69]

winner69

I followed your suggestion to sign up to www.nzx.com some months ago. But I have never get any “the full announcements…” from them.

Could you give details for the procedure?

Many thanks
Bixbite

When you signed in go to announcents (they are not delayed)

You can read the text but whatever the company provides is attached as pdfs which are shown at the bottom of the announcemnt

If numbers are included much easier to read as well

[arjay]

I'd love to play poker against Notie - I reckon he folds on anything less than a full house.

Many posters here bought NZO at around 30-40c, so even without further discoveries, 5c/yr divie for the next decade or so on the back of Kupe and Tui is highly satisfactory. Anything more is just more stunning.

[the machine]

I'd love to play poker against Notie - I reckon he folds on anything less than a full house.

Many posters here bought NZO at around 30-40c, so even without further discoveries, 5c/yr divie for the next decade or so on the back of Kupe and Tui is highly satisfactory. Anything more is just more stunning.

cheapest I bought was 20c au

M

[Bixbite]

cheapest I bought was 20c au

M

Free – 2 options swapped 1 ordinary share.


p.s. thanks winner69

[Oiler]

The situation with NZO is certainly trying at the present time.Perpetual patience is forever being called upon,while other oilers are doing better.
We needed the wildcat Albacore but it just is not coming to the party.Not much was factored into the SP but it is still a felt disappointment,following a string of dry well after Pateke.
Pike has held back NZO now for about two years and we wait for this final push through the Garbon.Any day now we should be back into coal and with the next 400 metres being conformed as coal some of the major problems from Pike will be finally behind us.The only good news here is the climbing value of coal. Maybe some day we will get started.For about 10 years now i have been backing Pike as a long term good earner but now think it is time the earning started and the theory about a coal mine gets turned into an actual producing one.
I do not agree with Oiler that Kupe is fully factored in.In fact my feeling is that Kupe has been soooooo long in the oven it is mostly factored out as being since 1968 a thing that is always about 5 years away.The risk that something will go wrong is still having a negative outcome so when again any day now we finally hear the start up plant is working as expected and producing the SP will respond to the removed risk.
The drilling getting put back a month was privately talked about at the AGM and in fact some AWE directors hopes are turning out as exactally as their fondest wishes wanted. Tough for our current drilling plays but it is exactally what AWE wanted.For NZO this just becomes one more thing we just have to patiently wait out. If the next three drills are all unsuccessful we will take a hit but not as much as as the positive effect of getting Pike and Kupe up and finally earning income.
Oiler your comment about NZO backing itself has lots of risks. We backed ourselfs with Hochstetter and nearly went under.I think the latest technology is too expensive for just one company to go it alone.Going in with other not only spreads the cost but the expertices as well.
So we are all just left still waiting.
Cheers and lets all hope for a successful new year.

Digger ..me not guilty :eek: I think you are referring to Notie (post 9118)

Ahh gas prices are not going to change very much in NZ just because the market is spiking in the states.

You guys can talk up your amazing investment in nzo while other resource stocks around the world are kicking off.

Tui is depleting and while kupe's condensate will bring some money in for this company it is revenue that is already factored in for it. Don't expect the share price to take off.

I cant comment on Kupe production. ;)

Oiler

[digger]

[QUOTE=Oiler;288609]Digger ..me not guilty :eek: I think you are referring to Notie (post 9118




Looks like i got my wires crossed. It also makes more since as i could not see why Oiler would be saying that whereas Notie always does.
Stand corrected.

[Misc]

Looks like spud will not be til March now with 2 week repair delays and Sidetrack drill at Rockhopper.

M

[the machine]

surprised no mention of pending first kupe light oil shipment

m

[foolme]

surprised no mention of pending first kupe light oil shipment

m

notice out this morning

[arjay]

notice out this morning

Roughly 150,000 barrels shipping out next week - a cool $2 mill or so to NZO - just like that!

[snackpack]

I may stand corrected, but I estimate $360k to NZOG for the shipment being a 15% partner of Kupe. 120k barrels at $70 at 15%. Taking the lower estimate of 15 yrs life and 14.7 million barrels in the ground then roughly 980k barrels exported per year being 5-8 shipments a year.

[manxman]

I may stand corrected, but I estimate $360k to NZOG for the shipment being a 15% partner of Kupe. 120k barrels at $70 at 15%. Taking the lower estimate of 15 yrs life and 14.7 million barrels in the ground then roughly 980k barrels exported per year being 5-8 shipments a year.

I think arjay was looking at the midpoint estimate of 150,000 barrels at about $NZ100. 15% of that gives $NZ 2,250,000 n'cest pas?

[snackpack]

Thank you for clarifying. I was using a low estimate and $US70 per barrel. I like Arjays estimate better than mine!

Disc: hold NZO

[fish]

Jan. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Origin Energy Ltd.’s NZ$1.3 billion ($960 million) Kupe project off New Zealand’s coast will make its first crude oil shipment next week.

Loading of the cargo, destined for BP Plc’s refinery at Kwinana in Western Australia, will begin Jan. 17, Sydney-based Origin said in a statement. The shipment of up to 180,000 barrels of light oil will help establish the characteristics of the crude and its pricing, Chris Bush, manager of Origin’s New Zealand unit, said by phone from the project’s processing plant.

Kupe, half-owned by Origin, lies about 30 kilometers (19 miles) off the west coast of New Zealand’s North Island. It began commissioning last month and is on schedule to complete “full commercial contract arrangements” late March, Bush said.

“That’s a really good indication that things are operational,” he said. “While there’s still a few things to bed down, we’re pretty comfortable and confident this is going to continue.”

New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd., a 15 percent partner in the project, rose 3 cents, or 1.9 percent, to NZ$1.65 at 1:08 p.m. in Wellington trading. Origin slipped 0.8 percent to A$17.21 in Sydney trading.

Kupe is primarily a gas project with oil accounting for about 22 percent of its reserves. It will deliver as much as 15 percent of the nation’s gas and more than half its LPG when fully operational, Bush said.

Government-owned generator Genesis Power Ltd. owns 31 percent of the project and is taking all the gas. Origin’s Contact Energy Ltd. subsidiary is one of the nation’s biggest LPG retailers, while New Zealand Oil & Gas is selling its share of the project’s LPG to Vector Ltd. Mitsui & Co. owns 4 percent.

Kupe’s oil is probably heavier than condensate from New Zealand’s Maui field and lighter than crude from the country’s Tui project, Bush said. It will likely be priced against Tapis or Cossack oil, he said.

[bermuda]

Congratulations NZOG. This is a tremendous achievement and is a cornerstone for the company. I always said that Kupe was worth about $1.25 on its own.

Well done NZOG. And the very best of luck with your upcoming drilling program.

[Casa del Energia]

Congratulations NZOG. This is a tremendous achievement and is a cornerstone for the company. I always said that Kupe was worth about $1.25 on its own.

Well done NZOG. And the very best of luck with your upcoming drilling program.

Ditto, second the motion.

[digger]

Congratulations NZOG. This is a tremendous achievement and is a cornerstone for the company. I always said that Kupe was worth about $1.25 on its own.

Well done NZOG. And the very best of luck with your upcoming drilling program.

Yes well done NZO for holding in there.We have all waited a long time.Some since 1986 me only from 1990 the date i first bought into the company. If waiting since 1986 seems a long time try to keep it in mind that KUPE will be going longer than we have waited,just to give some scope on what we all now all entering.And that is a consistence income stream from now until the day i die unless i live to be well over 100.
Strange that the SP rose then fell. I wondered if someone rather large just needs to get out for some reason.Or it could be that the punters are moving on with the drilling delay.

[Turboman]

NZOG awarded new offshore block
Matt Ritchie on Monday, 18 January 2010 - 14:18


Wellington-headquartered exploration and production company New Zealand Oil and Gas (NZOG) has been awarded a new exploration licence off the Taranaki coast.
Petroleum exploration permit (PEP) 51988 takes in 1,138 square kilometres in the northern Taranaki Basin, and water depths in the block are around 100 metres.
PEP 51988 is located in a busy exploration area which includes the recently drilled Albacore prospect in PEP 38491 to the south. Todd Energy's PEP 38602 (Karewa) adjoins the licence's northern border, and the company was the most recent operator of the acreage, later relinquishing the area.
NZOG will operate the licence, and holds a 100 per cent stake.
Exploration manager Mac Beggs says that there is a large amount of existing seismic and well data on the licence, gathered over forty years of exploration by a range of operators.
The Mangaa-1 well was the first drilled in the licence, in 1970. NZOG has previously explored the acreage, drilling the Kahawai-1 well in 1990, while the Te Kumi-1 (AMOCO 1988), and Awatea-1 (Fletcher Challenge 1996) wells have also been drilled within the permit's boundaries.
There is 2,834 kilometres of existing 2D seismic data over the block, the most recent shot in 2004. The biggest single survey was conducted by Petrocorp in 1995.
"There's no plan to acquire any more data, we feel there is a good grid of data there. The new datapoint we've got of course is the Albacore well result.
"We're looking at this as a block that will work in tandem with the Albacore block, now that we've secured our 40 per cent interest in that," says Beggs.
Albacore-1 was drilled in PEP 38491 in December last year, encountering sub-commercial traces of hydrocarbons.
Meanwhile, NZOG is finishing off its year one work programme in offshore Taranaki permit 51311 (Gamma), a 2,985 square kilometre licence in which NZOG is the operator and sole stakeholder.
A busy drilling campaign will begin upon the arrival of semi-submersible rig the Kan Tan IV, which has struck delays in its Bass Strait drilling programme and is now expected late next month.
Once in New Zealand waters, the rig will drill a number of wells including Hoki-1 in PEP 38401 (operator AWE, NZOG 10 per cent), and at least two wells in the Tui licence (operator AWE, NZOG 12.5 per cent).
Seismic reprocessing results for PEP 38259 in the Canterbury Basin are also being worked through, as the AWE-led joint venture moves into refined prospect definition for the block.

[blockhead]

Just reading between the lines there I would be thinking there was more learned from the Albacore drill than we know about

[gbeenz]

NZOG awarded new offshore block
Matt Ritchie on Monday, 18 January 2010 - 14:18


Wellington-headquartered exploration and production company New Zealand Oil and Gas (NZOG) has been awarded a new exploration licence off the Taranaki coast.
Petroleum exploration permit (PEP) 51988 takes in 1,138 square kilometres in the northern Taranaki Basin, and water depths in the block are around 100 metres.
PEP 51988 is located in a busy exploration area which includes the recently drilled Albacore prospect in PEP 38491 to the south. Todd Energy's PEP 38602 (Karewa) adjoins the licence's northern border, and the company was the most recent operator of the acreage, later relinquishing the area.
NZOG will operate the licence, and holds a 100 per cent stake.
Exploration manager Mac Beggs says that there is a large amount of existing seismic and well data on the licence, gathered over forty years of exploration by a range of operators.
The Mangaa-1 well was the first drilled in the licence, in 1970. NZOG has previously explored the acreage, drilling the Kahawai-1 well in 1990, while the Te Kumi-1 (AMOCO 1988), and Awatea-1 (Fletcher Challenge 1996) wells have also been drilled within the permit's boundaries.
There is 2,834 kilometres of existing 2D seismic data over the block, the most recent shot in 2004. The biggest single survey was conducted by Petrocorp in 1995.
"There's no plan to acquire any more data, we feel there is a good grid of data there. The new datapoint we've got of course is the Albacore well result.
"We're looking at this as a block that will work in tandem with the Albacore block, now that we've secured our 40 per cent interest in that," says Beggs.
Albacore-1 was drilled in PEP 38491 in December last year, encountering sub-commercial traces of hydrocarbons.
Meanwhile, NZOG is finishing off its year one work programme in offshore Taranaki permit 51311 (Gamma), a 2,985 square kilometre licence in which NZOG is the operator and sole stakeholder.
A busy drilling campaign will begin upon the arrival of semi-submersible rig the Kan Tan IV, which has struck delays in its Bass Strait drilling programme and is now expected late next month.
Once in New Zealand waters, the rig will drill a number of wells including Hoki-1 in PEP 38401 (operator AWE, NZOG 10 per cent), and at least two wells in the Tui licence (operator AWE, NZOG 12.5 per cent).
Seismic reprocessing results for PEP 38259 in the Canterbury Basin are also being worked through, as the AWE-led joint venture moves into refined prospect definition for the block.

Where did this info come from? Unless I'm missing something there is nothing on the NZO NZX or Crown Minerals sites yet.

[digger]

Where did this info come from? Unless I'm missing something there is nothing on the NZO NZX or Crown Minerals sites yet.

I can not help thinking this new block was applied for proir to the Albacore drill so came with more hope than now exists.
Maybe Chris Roberts could take the time to fill us in on the current thinking of this new block and if it still containes the same level of prospects it did before the unsuccessful Albacore well.

[Turboman]

Where did this info come from? Unless I'm missing something there is nothing on the NZO NZX or Crown Minerals sites yet.

http://www.energynews.co.nz/news/seismic/4419/nzog-awarded-new-offshore-block

I found it a bit strange that there was no NZX annoucement from NZO. Normally they are pretty good with keeping SH upto date.

[the machine]

I can not help thinking this new block was applied for proir to the Albacore drill so came with more hope than now exists.
Maybe Chris Roberts could take the time to fill us in on the current thinking of this new block and if it still containes the same level of prospects it did before the unsuccessful Albacore well.

digger, one would expect more info per the quarterly due jan 29

M

[Flogs]

I am somewhat surprised at the markets reaction to the news of first production from Kupe last Friday. Sp has gone nowhere. Does this mean that the market had already factored in Kupe coming on stream, or is further production detail needed to move sp along? Any comments would be appreciated.

[gambier33]

Hi Flogs, I'm not surprised at no real jump in SP. I reckon Kupe has been incrementally factored in the SP as it progressively comes into production. The first truck load from a plant slowly and carefully being commissioned isn't too much of a surprise to the followers.

I think the market will respond to the first quarterly report that states revenue for Kupe that has been generated for the whole period at full production capacity. More dividends would help also.

The new drilling at Tui (if that rig ever gets it together) will be our next period of SP fun! Drill and thrill time again.

[the machine]

First shipment from Kupe is due at BP Kwinana Jan 27th @ 2300

Vessel being British Chivalry.

Might test my loyalty here by swapping from shell fuel and use some BP for a change

M

[mondograss]

So is NZO going to have a crack at some of these blocks? Would make sense given their expertise in Taranaki.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/3249098/Reinga-Basin-petroleum-exploration-bidding-begins

[notie]

So is NZO going to have a crack at some of these blocks? Would make sense given their expertise in Taranaki.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/3249098/Reinga-Basin-petroleum-exploration-bidding-begins


they would be silly not to get in on these. Looking for oil in undrilled areas in deep water is the sort of thing nzo does

[fish]

they would be silly not to get in on these. Looking for oil in undrilled areas in deep water is the sort of thing nzo does
Certainly looks as if it holds promise-
OFFSHORE NORTHLAND BASIN


The offshore Northland basin lies to the west of the upper part of the North Island of New Zealand. This basin is contiguous with the hydrocarbon producing Taranaki Basin. Over the last three decades, the region has seen extensive seismic survey coverage and the drilling of two wells in the area. The Waka Nui-1 well changed the understanding of the sequences of the region with Jurassic sediments being intersected, while the Karewa-1 well intersected significant, but as yet non-commercial, biogenic methane in the Neogene sediments. Hydrocarbon potential over the whole basin was recently enhanced by satellite radar imaging, which highlighted a large number of potential offshore oil seeps indicative of the presence of an active Petroleum System.
Active exploration is presently being undertaken in the permitted southern segment of the basin by a consortium of Origin and OMV, who have recently carried out new 2D and 3D seismic surveys. This area links to the northern part of the Taranaki Basin with broadly similar geological sequences.
Nearly 50,000 sq kms of the offshore Northland Basin is being offered by the Crown in six Blocks, three on the immediate shelf and three in intermediate to deep waters. The basin consists of a sedimentary sequence up to 9 kms thick, resulting from a multi-phase series of tectono-stratigraphic events. This sequence is similar to the Taranaki Basin and onshore Northland geology, but is underlain by the Jurassic sequences identified in Waka Nui-1.
Potential petroleum source rocks with significant oil generating capability exist in the Jurassic coaly sediments of the Murihiku Supergroup, Early Cretaceous Taniwha Formation coaly sediments, Late Cretaceous coals of the Rakopi and North Cape Formations and marine shales of the Paleocene Turi and Waipawa Formations. Modelling of just two sources over the basin suggest there is potential for 8.5 mmstb/km² oil and 3.8 mmboe/km² gas to have been generated in a 100m thick basal section of the Taniwha Formation and 1.3 mmstb/km² oil and 0.1 mmboe/km² gas for a 50m thick Waipawa Formation which is just reaching the expulsion threshold.
Numerous potential reservoir facies include transgressive coastal sands and conglomerates of Cretaceous and Paleogene ages and turbidite sands of Neogene age.
A large number of structural and stratigraphic traps are recognised from the seismic interpretations recently undertaken and are included with this data package.

A supplementary data pack is now available for the Northland Block Offer. The data was acquired in March 2009 by CGGVeritas as part of a seismic survey over the Reinga Basin, which is contiguous to the Northland Basin. The new data pack contains the Crown owned lines (REI09 12, 20, 28 & STRANSSP 205 & 306).

[Entrep]

This is down quite a bit? Sellers getting impatient?

[winner69]

Is that quarterly cash flow good or bad

To the uneducated eye seems strange they continue to borrow heaps

[blockhead]

What quarterly Winner, can't find it anywhere yet ??

[blockhead]

Ah, its there now

[Casa del Energia]

Is that quarterly cash flow good or bad

To the uneducated eye seems strange they continue to borrow heaps


Bad (ish) . Or at best mediocre

Romania is gone.
Kupe revenue capitalised.
Tech glitch on Tui.
Albacore written off
Pike delays
PPP drills iffy.
Hoki delay.
Still sitting on idle cash in the bank. (Hey, that was investors money - there is a concept known as 'lost opportunity' , fellas. Could have had it in Aussie copper instead)

(But the borrowing is 'normal' practice.)

Nice photo of the tech team though.

[KentBrockman]

Bad (ish) . Or at best mediocre

Romania is gone.
Kupe revenue capitalised.
Tech glitch on Tui.
Albacore written off
Pike delays
PPP drills iffy.
Hoki delay.
Still sitting on idle cash in the bank. (Hey, that was investors money - there is a concept known as 'lost opportunity' , fellas. Could have had it in Aussie copper instead)

(But the borrowing is 'normal' practice.)

Nice photo of the tech team though.

And what's the deal with $6mill in admin cost in 6 months?

[Casa del Energia]

And what's the deal with $6mill in admin cost in 6 months?

Good question. Without a breakdown - I have to assume it is extraordinaries - spread accross Kupe commision, Drill co-ordination, Romaina et al- which is all a bit more complex and time consuming than organising the local school fair, I suppose.

The sp is doing an impersonation of a JU87 making its delivery- but can't be too unkind - the rest of the market is doing the same. ASX included.

This might be a good day to do some gardening instead and metaphorically stick my head in the sand.

[blockhead]

The drill bit was only marginally faster going down at Albacore and at the same time PRC is motionless pricewise with no income stream and considerable risk still about.

Ah might have to look for a patch of sand for my head as well.

[Casa del Energia]

The drill bit was only marginally faster going down at Albacore and at the same time PRC is motionless pricewise with no income stream and considerable risk still about.

Ah might have to look for a patch of sand for my head as well.


:-) I'll start watching the sand futures!

[Billy Boy]

Ah might have to look for a patch of sand for my head as well.

It'll have 2B a big patch of sand !! :D:D
:eek: Get back to work Blocky !! :eek:
BB:D

[blockhead]

Its going to have to be work BB, I always hoped NOG would save me from toil but its taking a while

[geezy]

NZO took a royal beating today. ouch . No activities is quite a worry. Well investors should now be asking whats the interest rate we are getting from the bank from all that cash!

[notie]

NZO took a royal beating today. ouch . No activities is quite a worry. Well investors should now be asking whats the interest rate we are getting from the bank from all that cash!


No activities and a 175 million sitting in the bank doing not much. USD doesn't tend to earn much money in interest.

Problem is they don't have any permits they run themselves that they will drill in anytime soon and do not have the capability or experience to operate a field like Tui or Kupe. All that shareholder money they are spending on their 200 year old team has not got them nowhere.

Some serious questions need to be asked about what their strategy is as it appears they can talk a good talk and put together some flashy investor presentations, but it ends there.

Of their other exploration strategies:

They even got scared off by Romania.....
Pike River-you can see now that nzo is going to have to bail these clowns out
PPP-the nzo investment in this company has been wasted with their share price dropping and Tui declining.

No, nzog really missed the chance with their war chest and opportunities coming up in the last 2 years. A real pity they are so risk adverse to actually doing anything.

They will be in a right mess if the upcoming Tui wells aren't successful and you can expect nzo to them do some rash moves and invest in some real dogs....

[Corporate]

Yip there is a fair amount of risk surrounding NZO. Net cash down to $100m. A chunk of this will be needed for Pike, Tui drilling, futher Kupe commissioning, Hoki drilling.

[shasta]

Yip there is a fair amount of risk surrounding NZO. Net cash down to $100m. A chunk of this will be needed for Pike, Tui drilling, futher Kupe commissioning, Hoki drilling.

Well they would have had alot more cash had they not lost a considerable chunk in FX losses over the last 6 - 9 months!

[Corporate]

Well they would have had alot more cash had they not lost a considerable chunk in FX losses over the last 6 - 9 months!

Ops I forgot to mention that. shasta I remember you and I being all over that debacle.

I just had a look at the 31 December 2008 quarterly cashflow report. Net cash at that time was circa $200m.

Now $100m

Dividend to shareholders around $20m

[friedegg]

Ops I forgot to mention that. shasta I remember you and I being all over that debacle.

I just had a look at the 31 December 2008 quarterly cashflow report. Net cash at that time was circa $200m.

Now $100m

Dividend to shareholders around $20m
it reads as 176million im sure,nzo just seem to have lost a bit of luck lately(very much like my summer ****house fishing trips so far)

[Corporate]

it reads as 176million im sure,nzo just seem to have lost a bit of luck lately(very much like my summer ****house fishing trips so far)

Yeah that's why I said net cash. They have debt to the tune of $76m.

[geezy]

Pike will save the NZO sp :P

[winner69]

Bad (ish) . Or at best mediocre

Romania is gone.
Kupe revenue capitalised.
Tech glitch on Tui.
Albacore written off
Pike delays
PPP drills iffy.
Hoki delay.
Still sitting on idle cash in the bank. (Hey, that was investors money - there is a concept known as 'lost opportunity' , fellas. Could have had it in Aussie copper instead)

(But the borrowing is 'normal' practice.)

Nice photo of the tech team though.

..... but this time last year they were paying debt off and then went through a period of not borrowing

Just seems seem that with all this cash you borrow .... to pay out a dividend

Maybe normal practice for these types of companies ... which I dont really understand how they operate anyway

[fish]

..... but this time last year they were paying debt off and then went through a period of not borrowing

Just seems seem that with all this cash you borrow .... to pay out a dividend

Maybe normal practice for these types of companies ... which I dont really understand how they operate anyway

Dividends were paid because of and from the massive initial cash flows from Tui .
Kupe will soon be earning substantial and more sustained cash flows and if the Tui near development wells are successful nzo will be a great earner .
PRC will contribute one day

[digger]

Bad (ish) . Or at best mediocre

Romania is gone.
Kupe revenue capitalised.
Tech glitch on Tui.
Albacore written off
Pike delays
PPP drills iffy.
Hoki delay.
Still sitting on idle cash in the bank. (Hey, that was investors money - there is a concept known as 'lost opportunity' , fellas. Could have had it in Aussie copper instead)

(But the borrowing is 'normal' practice.)

Nice photo of the tech team though.

About a month ago i posted that NZO was in a big waiting period. It still is and if anything the waiting is getting longer.That is in short most of the SP problem.It will correct but not for now.
Casa del Energia,you bring up some points.Here are my thoughts on them.
Great that Romania is gone. I spoke with DS before the AGM and he had many thoughts on why Romania could be a good deal.But it could also be a sh-- lousy deal if we end up drilling someone else well like PPPV did.He got my thinking that far flung deals have a lot of hidden problems and if i have in any smallest way influenced the directors to think carefully then i would love to forever stand by it. We have enought here in NZ and AUS to keep a small company busy.Amen to that one
Kupe revenue capatilised. So what .TUI was at that same stage. Kupe has not got in the swing of it yet but soo will. NZO waiting just a bit longer but getting there.
Tech glitch on TUI. Negative way of seeing it.Probably about time to stand something down to replace it with something that in the long run will preform better.
Albacore written off. Yes but well recorded.
Pike delays. Again i agree but the market is well informed here as well.But surely some day.Actually i would like NZO to have a serious look at picking up the PIKE short fall--at a good value naturally.
PPP drills ifffy. Here you have hit the nail square on the head.Amatures---wish i had sold but hind sight has little value.There remaining value is mostly TUI and the near drills.
Hoki delays. Would you believe that TR felt that all 4 wells would be finished by end of FEB but end of March for sure. Well this is oil drilling and the best of plans get forever pushed back. I just hope it gets done B4 winter says it can not be drilled this season.
so in summary i feel the SP is mostly reacting to the delays rather than hard negative news.You would think the near Tui wels had been drilled and are dry by the way things are going.
My biggest concern you did not mention is the acreage just north of Albacore that we have 100% of. Is it now of less value with albacore dry ,the market would say. That may well be true but if remember KIWI was dry and it was just west of TUI. Had Kiwi been drilled first would we then say the area is dry and walk away.
Guess all those new directors we have been putting on the board in the last 5 years with their geology expertise had better get on with working out our best path forward.

[sideline]

I don't quite get why "Kupe revenue capitalised" is supposed to be a bad thing!
Doesn't it mean that the current revenue is used straight to offset some of the
capital costs incurred, rather than paying tax on it now and depreciating the
higher capital costs over umptien years!!!
It may not look so pretty on the profit side but any business owner would love an instant writeoff opportunity like that!

[Casa del Energia]

About a month ago i posted that NZO was in a big waiting period. It still is and if anything the waiting is getting longer.That is in short most of the SP problem.It will correct but not for now.
Casa del Energia,you bring up some points.Here are my thoughts on them.
{sic}
Guess all those new directors we have been putting on the board in the last 5 years with their geology expertise had better get on with working out our best path forward.

Points taken and you are correct. I was in a funk at the time and should have fired off a more considered post - if at all.
And I suppose it is really a matter of not what someone says but what they do;- I have not sold down my holding in NZO (or PRC). At the coal face, as it were, NZO is well functioning and if I cannot accept that wildcats are what they are and petrochemical plants are not something that you switch on and forget - - then I should invest in fixed interest or over fill mattresses and leave it to the investors with real guts.
And as for directly putting the initial sales amounts back into plant & equipment purchases (effectively) - although it strikes me as strange (a function of age - rigid in method and procedure on my part) - it is a small matter and since I've lost just about every argument with various management accountants over the years - - who am I to comment.

[fabs]

Yes these high numbers of experts that have joined the board, since the old team have accomplished most of what the co. Is today
have a lot to make up.
Better for something to improve drastically over the next 3 months , or some havy pruning of what looks like a relative increasingly top heavy lot, will be in order.
No good just to hope a lucky strike will do it.

[Casa del Energia]

$1.46 .

I suppose it is some consolation that the rest of the market is nose diving even faster.
And there are the pinot options that make the numbers look healthier.

Pinot options?

Yes - two bottles of Otago Pinot Noir consumed in quick succession makes it 'all go away'.

[Bobcat.]

1. Oil prices trending down due to concerns about world consumption (and therefore production);
2. Pike River Coal running out of cash and slipping again behind schedule;
3. PPP on a downward slide (although technically this pup looks about to hit some support);
4. Missed investment opportunities have incurred an opportunity cost that must be (ought to be) embarrassing to NZO directors;
5. More bad news to come (e.g. PRC rights issue)?;
6. NZO has broken too easily through the 150c support it bounced off last year.

Does anyone have any significant upside that would warrant buying into this stock? I can't see any. Perhaps if the share price drops down to about 1.30 I'll be tempted. Meanwhile, I've got my sights more on picking up some PPP in the mid 30's (see the graph). O.K. - PPP's mgmt have burnt alot of cash with little result but they do seem better positioned to bring home the black stuff. Other's views?

[dsurf]

1. Oil prices trending down due to concerns about world consumption (and therefore production);
2. Pike River Coal running out of cash and slipping again behind schedule;
3. PPP on a downward slide (although technically this pup looks about to hit some support);
4. Missed investment opportunities have incurred an opportunity cost that must be (ought to be) embarrassing to NZO directors;
5. More bad news to come (e.g. PRC rights issue)?;
6. NZO has broken too easily through the 150c support it bounced off last year.

Does anyone have any significant upside that would warrant buying into this stock? I can't see any. Perhaps if the share price drops down to about 1.30 I'll be tempted. Meanwhile, I've got my sights more on picking up some PPP in the mid 30's (see the graph). O.K. - PPP's mgmt have burnt alot of cash with little result but they do seem better positioned to bring home the black stuff. Other's views?


The upside is that when everyone thinks the glass is half empty is usually the best time to buy!

[impacman]

The upside is that when everyone thinks the glass is half empty is usually the best time to buy!

And two bottles of good Otago Pinot Noir (in quick or even moderate succession) make it positively overflowing:D

[fish]

1. Oil prices trending down due to concerns about world consumption (and therefore production);
2. Pike River Coal running out of cash and slipping again behind schedule;
3. PPP on a downward slide (although technically this pup looks about to hit some support);
4. Missed investment opportunities have incurred an opportunity cost that must be (ought to be) embarrassing to NZO directors;
5. More bad news to come (e.g. PRC rights issue)?;
6. NZO has broken too easily through the 150c support it bounced off last year.

Does anyone have any significant upside that would warrant buying into this stock? I can't see any. Perhaps if the share price drops down to about 1.30 I'll be tempted. Meanwhile, I've got my sights more on picking up some PPP in the mid 30's (see the graph). O.K. - PPP's mgmt have burnt alot of cash with little result but they do seem better positioned to bring home the black stuff. Other's views?

Falling nz dollar-means the nz return on a barrel of oil remains over $110.
Also the $100 m nz banked in us dollars have increased substantially.
Kupe is just starting production
More drilling in the next few weeks-and the Tui near drills are not wildcats .

With no net debt and money in the bank plus high returns likely from kupe I cant see the sp falling much more -but if it does it will be a cheap buying opportunity for all of us .

[digger]

Falling nz dollar-means the nz return on a barrel of oil remains over $110.
Also the $100 m nz banked in us dollars have increased substantially.
Kupe is just starting production
More drilling in the next few weeks-and the Tui near drills are not wildcats .

With no net debt and money in the bank plus high returns likely from kupe I cant see the sp falling much more -but if it does it will be a cheap buying opportunity for all of us .


I was just thinking of posting the foreign exchange bit when you beat me to it Fish.Last year when the Kiwi was rising against the yank dollar we had a lot of discussion of the invisible loses that were occuring. Now as we can not have it both ways it must be good. Remember last year the exchange loses some periods beat the Tui income. So why is it not positive now with a exchange gain and still some income from Tui.

Bobcat, we may very well all be jumping the gun on the missed opportunties. The downturn is not over yet.In fact with three countries in the EU in the sh-- those opportunties might just be starting. Another finanical crises now will hit harder than the last one.
I had prevoiustly thought the crises was over and took shares in lue of dividend,but have cra-ted out badly.

[neopoleII]

i'd be interested in reading unicorns comments on the current share price.

[notie]

dear oh dear. It looks as if nzo's much talked about war chest is going to be spent bailing out pike river. Expect some bad news from them over some capital raising and the market isn't going to be that happy about bailing out pike river.
When John Kidd from McDouall Stuart comes out and says "the company (PRC) is a serial offender in overpromising and under-delivering" then it is not a good sign. remember the McDouall Stuart are the company that put the NZO fund raising together a couple of years ago, so for them to come out with comments is not a good endorsement in pike river or nzo.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/3297899/Pike-River-could-ask-for-twice-flagged-amount

nzo has missed investment oppotunities and has managed to assemble a large team which has cost them 6 million in admin over the last 6 months. Still no real investments of any note (apart from Albacore and 10% of Hoki).

my guess would be the nzo board and management are a bit worried about the situation they now find themselves in and are likely to jump at some risky investment.

Sure they have kupe and tui but if the new wells on tui fail then nzo is in big problems and will be looking at having to use investors money to have to bail out prc if prc shareholders reject putting any more of their money into the company.

[digger]

dear oh dear. It looks as if nzo's much talked about war chest is going to be spent bailing out pike river. Expect some bad news from them over some capital raising and the market isn't going to be that happy about bailing out pike river.
When John Kidd from McDouall Stuart comes out and says "the company (PRC) is a serial offender in overpromising and under-delivering" then it is not a good sign. remember the McDouall Stuart are the company that put the NZO fund raising together a couple of years ago, so for them to come out with comments is not a good endorsement in pike river or nzo.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/3297899/Pike-River-could-ask-for-twice-flagged-amount

nzo has missed investment oppotunities and has managed to assemble a large team which has cost them 6 million in admin over the last 6 months. Still no real investments of any note (apart from Albacore and 10% of Hoki).

my guess would be the nzo board and management are a bit worried about the situation they now find themselves in and are likely to jump at some risky investment.

Sure they have kupe and tui but if the new wells on tui fail then nzo is in big problems and will be looking at having to use investors money to have to bail out prc if prc shareholders reject putting any more of their money into the company.

Notie apart from theory do you have any experience as a miner.In my case it is all theory as well but that theory come from my famile in Canada who were all miners in some way.My oldest brother [deceased] twice picked up a hopeless mines run by previous academic specials and using years of gut experience turned them around and made heaps.He was an exceptially top miner but lousy at handling money so still died broke after making a small fortune picking up mines like PIKE is now in.Note he didn't even finish high school but had little trouble turning around these minds once the disfunctional book worms were removed from the scene.
Pike's record shows that the company is grostly top heavy with academic specials.In fact Grodon Ward in Hamilton said that the ventualtion shaft's collapse was a surprise as there experts were all sure it was safe.I shuttered. I shuttered again when they unexpectially hit the gardon. In fact i asked this question about two years ago.Asking that when they hit coal 'how do you know it will still not be suddenly rock".Assured it would be coal.

If NZO wants to put money into PIKE i agree from my holding,but first i want a few book worms fired and replaced with a few practical miners that have that X factor know how to get things done which only comes from physical experience of doing it.Just not on that we hire all these experts and have this mess.TOOOOO many mistakes that comes from the fact that the experts are not accountable for the advise they give. Pike and its shareholders better to used to the idea that TOO BIG TO FAIL only applies to bankers and finanicals firms not mineing companies.
So yes NZO should get PIKE going but first only after an accountable structure is set up. Little point in paying experts and be left holding all the fuc-ups they are making.
A big sort out is long overdue B4 it brings the whole house down.Does anyone know how to bring back the dead ,as i know someone who is very good at kicking the correct ass and listning to the right advice[mostly his own]???
Note i use to have 1/3 million shares in PIKE but sold out at 2-12 some years ago to fund NZO. Now have only a hand full the rest through NZO.

Enough said we need changes and accountabality.

[fabs]

DITTO to the above Digger:
This PRC scenario looks more and more sceary and i feel if NZO is tempted to even consider a bailout [and arent they allready comitted to some millions of assistance]
there should be some hard questions asked as a large part of NZOs present reserves were raised 18 months ago not with that in mind.
I too thought and was i guess led to believe about 12-14 years ago, PRC had a reasonable chance one day and probably still has but am glad not to have any direct involvement, but start to feel concerned for my involvement via NZO.
As i mentioned in a recent post that co.s management is impressing me less and less, seems to turn slowley into a case of, Quantity versus Quality.

[CAM]

re: the experts at Pike. Pike were recruiting when the minerals boom was on. I would have thought the good people would have been looked after well by their current employers at the time like the big Aussie miners. Makes you wonder who Pike managed to recruit to go live on the West Coast of NZ?
Disc past holder of NZO (sold at $1.60) never held PRC

[troyvdh]

Phaedrus (I think your alright bye the way)...looking at the charts...short term is fairly ugly but over 2-3 years am i right in stating that "we" are still on an uptrend.

cheers troy

[Phaedrus]

Yes, NZO is still in a longterm (6 year) uptrend - it would need to fall below $1.08 to break this. This fact would only be of any relevance to really longterm investors, though. The rest of us would have sold out when the current "medium-term" downtrend got underway. Many very different indicators fired off sell signals at around $1.64 or so - including the MSI as per the coloured plot. But we don't want to talk about that now, do we!

A particularly interesting feature of this chart is the unusual OBV plot. The OBV has been essentially flat for about 9 months now. It was not rising when the shareprice was (ie NZO was not being accumulated by bigger holders) and it was not falling when the shareprice was (ie NZO was not being distributed from bigger to smaller holders). To my mind, this seems to suggest that NZO is being held by a particularly stable group of longterm shareholders, riding the uptrends and wearing the downtrends. True believers, I guess.

Note the OBV "sell" signal (magenta arrow). This signal was unsupported by any others, so no-one would have acted on it - right? It's not often that the OBV gives a bum steer. The TB's aberrant behaviour appears to have buggered up this otherwise excellent indicator!

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/NZO210.gif

[the machine]

wonder what nzo management think of their investment in PPP now, as price back to where it was at end dec 2008, after having doubled mid 2009.

maybe hanging in there for a "sure thing" tui program to commence in april

M

[dsurf]

The PPP investment has always rattled me as it has been clear that they have never had a strong idea on whether the investment was short or long term or what the "strategy" was.
A blocking stake only helps PPP shareholders including those who are current NZO holder-manager-directors. If it was a short term investment designed to take a profit then they had no exit strategy because they did not take a profit. If it was to increase reserves, then why not get 100% - no other investment has meant their criteria. So I assume the PPP shareholders who are NZO holder-manager-directors were quite happy to see the price ramped but not to be sold on profit taking.

This has always been a concern for me because it suggests a lack of strategy, mixed objectives and / or a lack of ability to capitalise when opportunity arises.

Discl - long term happy holder looking forward with a lot of confidence that if the SP retreats such a small amount after such a shyte 2009 year then 2010 looks fantastic.

[Bobcat.]

That support level of $1.35 looks appealing but with PRC and PPP acting like lead weights around the neck of this pup, I'm staying well clear at these prices.

Note in NZR's announcements, they state that there is an oversupply of refining at the mo which is seriously cutting into their margins. Even though oil prices have not yet slumped, an oversupply of barrels must surely be linked, yes?

[ratkin]

All this negative talk about PRC im suprised their shareprice isnt around 50c. Seems to be holding up well

[Bobcat.]

Ratkin,
I'm not so negative about PPP - in fact I have a bid sitting at 36c where to me it looks like the sp is experiencing some support. At 50c however I may have been more negative.
Assuming the DOW does not drop again below 10000, and there's not more bad news to be announced by mgmt, I'm guessing PPP will bounce back north well enough. Its prospects still ain't half bad.

[Logen Ninefingers]

Although PPP have so far lucked out in their drilling in Vietnam and Timor regions, they still have a significant amount of cash, & they are closely linked with what NZO are doing. At some stage in the near future there is going to be further drilling in the Tui area, and if oil is struck there it is going to be a major success for both NZO and PPP. Personally I don't know why NZO drilled first at Albacore....it was always going to be a long-shot and the fact that nothing was found there has added to a 'bad news' feel around the company when combined with the PRC situation. Overall there is reason to be positive though; Kupe is a happening thing & those revenues will start to roll in, and no-one is going to abandon PRC now after so much dosh has been invested. It will be a happening thing in due course - probably 2011 - and when it does hit full production NZO will benefit from the revenues inherent in being a 30% stakeholder.

[Logen Ninefingers]

According to the Herald bidders are being sought for Taranaki's onshore Kahili gas field, which was operated for a short time in 2004 by Austral Pacific Energy. Production stopped when the well unexpectedly filled with water, but reserves were estimated at 4 billion cu ft of gas. Crown Minerals said that the field failed due to an aggressive water influx into the small reservoir compartment that was tapped by the production zone, but a well placed further sidetrack could recover more gas condensate. The block offer is closing on May 3.
*******Get in there NZO*******

[fish]

Disappointing that Kan TAN 1V is still tied up with Rockhopper whilst the tasman has been as flat as a lake

Origin Energy, on behalf of the T/18P Joint Venture, advises that
as at 06:00 hours EDT on Thursday 11 February 2010 the current
operation at Rockhopper 1/ST 1 is pressure testing the BOPs prior
to undertaking a wiper trip and running a wireline dual packer
formation sampler.
The prospective target reservoirs were encountered between 40
and 60m deeper than in Rockhopper 1 as mapped. Consistent
with the results in Rockhopper 1, these sands varied in thickness
between 1m and 9m.
An extensive wireline probe sampling program has been
undertaken and recovered oil from 2 sandstones and formation
water from another. Several other sands did not yield reliable
formation pressure data or samples and may be hydrocarbonbearing,
but of lower permeability. Sampling of these
potentially tighter intervals will now be attempted using the
wireline dual packer formation sampler over the next few days.
It remains too early to speculate on the commercial significance
of the Rockhopper discovery.

[the machine]

kan tan IV is pulling casing before plugging and abandoning, then its off to nz looking for hoki

M

[Crypto Crude]

thanks for that summary logen 9 fingers...
lol... i like it...

Its a pity that NZO pulled out of the Romanian ADX connection...
I wouldnt be surprised if NZO make their own moves in the region soon...

as for drilling,
line em up like skittles and NZO will surely hit one of these exploration wells...
havent really had an itch to reinvest until now...
surely its gotta be this one.....
hehehe...
I will have a better look at the prospect and consider it as im not buying ADX no more based on NZO pulling out...
:cool:
.^sc

[fish]

thanks for that summary logen 9 fingers...
lol... i like it...

Its a pity that NZO pulled out of the Romanian ADX connection...
I wouldnt be surprised if NZO make their own moves in the region soon...

as for drilling,
line em up like skittles and NZO will surely hit one of these exploration wells...
havent really had an itch to reinvest until now...
surely its gotta be this one.....
hehehe...
I will have a better look at the prospect and consider it as im not buying ADX no more based on NZO pulling out...
:cool:
.^sc
With drilling for hoki imminent followed by near tui developments wells I wouldnt procrastinate too long .
I am tempted to sell my cue in order to buy more nzo .
I havnt really followed cue too closely-out of cue and nzo which do you think has the best short-term prospects(ie under 3 months )

[Corporate]

With drilling for hoki imminent followed by near tui developments wells I wouldnt procrastinate too long .
I am tempted to sell my cue in order to buy more nzo .
I havnt really followed cue too closely-out of cue and nzo which do you think has the best short-term prospects(ie under 3 months )

NZO has the best prospects in the next three months. But that is fairly obvious. They have a drilling campaign about to kick off.

I'd back CUE over the next 12 months though. Why?

Bedding in Maari cash flow
flow testing manaia and m2a
Artimis drilling
Caterina farm out and drilling

[blockhead]

Quarterly tomorrow isnt it ? some expecting glad tidings going by the nice wee rise today

[777]

Either someone knows something or more likely they wanted 30,000 and paid market price.

[BigBob]

Quarterly tomorrow isnt it ? some expecting glad tidings going by the nice wee rise today

The quarterly came out end of January.... This is more likely to be in anticipation of the upcoming drilling.... Kan Tan IV was supposedly handed over during the weekend and should be on its way to Taranaki.....

[blockhead]

True Big Bob, not the Quarterly, 6 months interim to Dec 31st I think

[BigBob]

Ahh, indeed Blockhead - forgot about that - I think you're right, in that it is due by the end of February...

[peterfindlay]

The quarterly came out end of January.... This is more likely to be in anticipation of the upcoming drilling.... Kan Tan IV was supposedly handed over during the weekend and should be on its way to Taranaki.....

Yes you are quite right. My understanding is that Kan Tan IV was released over the weekend, and is now on its way to NZ.

[geezy]

nzo up due to short term traders jumpin in for the thrill and drill phase :D

[Mr Tommy]

nzo up due to short term traders jumpin in for the thrill and drill phase :D

But the SP price was around 170-180 late last year until albacore fizzed. Still a way off getting back to that level

[Corporate]

Funding Support for Pike River Coal
24 February 2010

New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd (NZOG) has moved to enhance its investment in Pike River Coal Ltd (Pike) through a funding package announced today.

NZOG is already the largest shareholder in Pike with 29.5% of the shares on issue.

Unforeseen production delays at its West Coast coking coal mine have required Pike to seek further working capital. Pike is also seeking to redeem its existing US$28.9 million convertible bond facility provided by Liberty Harbor, LLC.

NZOG has agreed to support Pike with the following funding package:

a. Pike will undertake an equity issue to raise NZ$50 million. NZOG will subscribe for its 29.5% interest in a fully underwritten rights issue of NZ$50 million (subject to any regulatory restraints).

b. NZOG will provide a new convertible bond facility for US$28.9 million with an interest rate of 10%, to fund the potential redemption of the Liberty Harbor convertible bonds. NZOG's new bonds will mature in March 2012. They will be convertible into Pike shares at the same conversion price as the Liberty Harbor bonds (NZ$1.24 per share converted at an exchange rate of US$0.70), subject to adjustment under anti-dilution provisions.

c. Pike will grant an option to NZOG, exercisable at any time over the next two years, to enter into an offtake agreement to purchase Pike coking coal at market prices to be negotiated annually. The maximum volumes which may be purchased under the offtake agreement would be the currently uncontracted coal quantities for the first three years and up to 30% of annual coal production for the remaining life of mine.

The bond facility and coal contract option are conditional on, amongst other things, both being approved by Pike shareholders. In the event that the bond facility and coal contract option do not proceed, then a break fee of NZ$1.2 million is payable to NZOG.

Further details of the funding package are set out in the attached schedule.

NZOG has also agreed to provide interim funding to Pike, on commercial terms, of up to NZ$15 million. This may be drawn upon, as necessary, to cover funding requirements until the rights issue proceeds are received.

NZOG Chief Executive David Salisbury says the overall package has benefits for both companies.

"Subject to approval from its shareholders, Pike will have in NZOG a supportive investor providing the funding it needs, allowing Pike to focus on ramping up to full production during this period of very buoyant prices for metallurgical (coking) coal.

"NZOG will receive an attractive return on its secured convertible bond. The potential for NZOG to hold a coal contract will enhance NZOG's overall investment in Pike.

"As we have consistently stated, in due course Pike is likely to be less relevant to NZOG's future as we build our core oil and gas exploration and production business.

"However, this package is value creating for NZOG and is a continuation of our current strategy of managing this investment in the interests of our shareholders.

"At this stage it is appropriate that NZOG continue to provide tangible backing to Pike as it moves to steady-state production from its coking coal mine, while we focus on our extensive programme of petroleum exploration and production activities," David Salisbury said.

 
Schedule of key terms

Equity Issue
• Pike to undertake an equity issue of ordinary shares to raise $50 million
• Pike is considering a rights issue of ordinary shares and a share placement
• NZOG will subscribe for its 29.5% interest in a rights issue of $NZ50 million
• NZOG's participation in a rights issue is conditional on the rights issue being fully underwritten
Coal Contract Option
• Pike to grant NZOG an option to purchase Pike River coal for life of mine
• Pricing to be negotiated annually on the same basis as the existing Pike contract with Gujarat
• Option exercisable within 2 years
• Coal quantity under option to be up to 30% of Pike River annual production (except for the period to 31 March 2013 when the quantity is limited to the quantity of coal not already contractually committed)
Convertible Bond
• NZOG to provide Pike with a new convertible bond facility allowing Pike to repay existing Liberty Harbor convertible bond facility
• Facility amount is US$28.9 million
• Term is 2 years to 12 March 2012
• Interest rate is 10% pa
• The facility is to be first ranking secured debt ranked equally with other Pike debt of up to NZ$20 million
• The bonds can convert at the option of NZOG into such number of ordinary shares of Pike as is determined under the conversion formulae which at an exchange rate of US$0.70 is NZ$1.24 per share
• Standard anti-dilution applies so that the conversion price reduces if further securities are issued at a reduced price
Conditions of Coal Contract Option and Convertible Bonds
Each of the Coal Contract Option and Convertible Bond are conditional on each other as well as:
• all necessary Pike shareholder approvals under applicable listing rules and the takeovers code being obtained
• successful completion of the rights issue
• any necessary consents and approvals from existing secured creditors of Pike
• in the case of the Convertible Bond, Pike not being in breach of any existing financing arrangements except as permitted by agreement of NZOG
• A break fee of NZ$1.2 million is payable to NZOG if the bond facility and coal contract option do not proceed.

Why on earth does NZO want to purchase PIKE coal at market/spot prices?

[OutToLunch]

Presumably they see value in holding the contract itself, with a view to flogging it off to someone else?
No idea why they'd want the actual coal.

[Corporate]

Presumably they see value in holding the contract itself, with a view to flogging it off to someone else?
No idea why they'd want the actual coal.


Yeah on further thought. They will try and sell their share in PIKE with the 30% offtake agreement. Nice little package for a international company...if Pike ever gets to steady stake production near 1m tonnes per annum.

[manxman]

If/When Pike hits 1 million tonnes, then NZO can convert its bonds to shares. Presumably the resolutions passed at the PRC special meeting in a couple of months will bypass any takeover code provisions and allow NZO to convert bonds to equity without further shareholder authorization.
NZO is protected against dilution by Liberty Harbor, and PRC gets a bondholder who is likely to be less voracious than Liberty Harbor. NZO don't seem to have any urgent need for major cash at this stage, and they must have as good an idea as anyone if the coal is going to come out.

[Hoop]

Yeah on further thought. They will try and sell their share in PIKE with the 30% offtake agreement. Nice little package for a international company...if Pike ever gets to steady stake production near 1m tonnes per annum.
Agree....
There doesn't seem to be any common thread for NZO...but a very attractive package for a Steel Mill or such like. The medium term outlook is for a shortage of coking (thermal) coal...

[the machine]

Presumably they see value in holding the contract itself, with a view to flogging it off to someone else?
No idea why they'd want the actual coal.

IMO itis a means to an end in that it is part of requirements to help the underwritting of the the nz$50m issue.
Also, it finds a use for some of those usd$ held - which has missed out on being converted to nz$ last year before usd$ dived.

Would be very surprised if NZO actually exercised the option themselves - perhaps they may flog it off next year if there was any money in it, otherwise let it run its course and lapse.

M

[peterfindlay]

Pike shareholders should breathe a little easier now. The deal is good for both companies, but NZOG have secured the coking coal contract which perhaps they could have negotiated when the Indian shareholders negotiated such a deal i.e. prior to PRC's listing on the NZX.

In my view the price reset of the coking contracts should follow international best practice, which appears to be rapidly moving towards a quarterly reset. Today's announcement does not indicate whether it is possible or likely to move away from annual price reset of the coking price contract that the Indian and Japanese parties contracted to buy the coal (e.g. Gujarat, Mitsui... ) currently enjoy.

NZO appear to have secured the coking coal with pricing reset annually until 2013. Beyond that period, the pricing reset mechanism, and the frequency of this reset, need to be clarified.

[blockhead]

On first brush I am comfortable with these arrangements, slipping PRC sp suggests holders there are not so happy, perhaps the thought of having to dig in the back pocket for a rights issue is a concern.

I guess the whole deal revolves around the ability to get the coal to the wharf in the big tonnage required and the price of the coal staying where it is or improving.

[Crypto Crude]

Hello Fish...
Ive been busy... just got me some plastic surgery and a new pair of shades ... check me out -->:cool:
with a new smile to boot, I feel totally refreshed...
...
short term CUE vs NZO?
Without turning the thread into CUE, I will keep it real short...

it could go either way....

if the next NZO well fails the sp will drop, but will remain up over the medium term...
both are promising stocks...
:cool:
.^sc

[Arbitrage]

Now that NZOG is an oil and gas producition company, won't its price follow the price of oil and gas?

Sure a few knocks from dry wells but if the price of its products from Tui and Kupe goes up, this will dwarf the short term costs. The value of Pike River Coal Ltd will also help once coal production gets into full swing.

[fabs]

How much of the Managements supposed 200 years experience is in Coal Mining, to back PRC with Millions of Shareholders Money chiefly rised for its core business, Oil & Gas

[Corporate]

Arbitrage

NZO don't have a very large stake in Tui. And since the field is in decline, production is pretty minimal compared to NZOG market cap.
Kupe is quite similar. Gas is sold according to long term contracts that don't fluctuate with the oil price and the associated condensate production is (relatively) low.
Therefore without near field discoveries there is not a lot of leverage off the oil price.

[notie]

so there goes 50 million bucks from NOG war chest that is going to be used to bail out a company that was formed from inside nog in the first place. What a mess. Net cash at the end of the June 09 period was 174 million and now it is down to 118 million and they are going bail the clowns down the mine out to the tune of 50 million. Oh nice one. What has the staff with 200 years of exploration experience that is costing nog a million/month done for them? So far they have invested heavily in Albacore which was dry and the only other rank exploration target they have come up with is a 10% stake in Hoki. Not particularly a good investment in exploration. mean while they are spending a lot of money which so far hasn't produced results apart from increasing their investment in a failing coal mine on the west coast which I would say isn't their core business.

OK they have tui wells coming up but a lot rests on these. Hoki even if it is a discovery will take years to develop and nog 10% isn't going to get them much.

[Corporate]

so there goes 50 million bucks from NOG war chest that is going to be used to bail out a company that was formed from inside nog in the first place. What a mess. Net cash at the end of the June 09 period was 174 million and now it is down to 118 million and they are going bail the clowns down the mine out to the tune of 50 million. Oh nice one. What has the staff with 200 years of exploration experience that is costing nog a million/month done for them? So far they have invested heavily in Albacore which was dry and the only other rank exploration target they have come up with is a 10% stake in Hoki. Not particularly a good investment in exploration. mean while they are spending a lot of money which so far hasn't produced results apart from increasing their investment in a failing coal mine on the west coast which I would say isn't their core business.

OK they have tui wells coming up but a lot rests on these. Hoki even if it is a discovery will take years to develop and nog 10% isn't going to get them much.

Totally agree with your points notie. For all the talk of being such a great company NZO has not taken advantage of the GFC when they were in a position to do so. Their inability to put deals together has cost them...look at the FX debacle!!!

The PRC situation has forced them into a corner.

what happens if:

their a no new commercial tui wells
prc never actually gets to its IPO projections and requires more capital (again)
hoki is dry

There is probably an even change of the first two and a 90% chance of the third.

A $600m company becomes a $300m company.

[geezy]

But the SP price was around 170-180 late last year until albacore fizzed. Still a way off getting back to that level

PRC has been weighing down NZO as well , expect NZO SP to increase if PRC issues get sorted out (successful cap raising and 60k tonnes out as scheduled)

[digger]

How much of the Managements supposed 200 years experience is in Coal Mining, to back PRC with Millions of Shareholders Money chiefly rised for its core business, Oil & Gas

Just prior to the 2008 AGM I had my name in for director nomination.I pulled it at the last minute as my technical knowledge of the oil play made me wonder if I would be of use to the company.Remember we have as a family 1% of the company so everything must be go and that includes myself out of the way if necessary.Well that was my thinking at the time,supported indirectly by a few other unnamed persons.The way the cookey has finally crumbled with PIKE,those reasons have turned out to be not only invalid but a loss to the company.
Looking at the board of directors you have to be impressed with the team put together for oil and gas exploration and development,but who knows the insideouts of mining? There may well be 200 years of accumulative experience in oil but is there 200 minutes in coal mining? The decision to bale out PIKE with our already 30% is the right one and in time could still turn out to be a sound economic move.
Two weeks ago I rang the company to discuss PIKE but DS was overseas and Chris Roberts was on holiday. Some secretary took my message and someone was suppost to get back to me but as yet silence.I wanted to give my support to a further investment in PIKE but we need changes first. Above all we need hosesty with committments.Trying to hide bad news is bad business.The formost concern is to devolope a culture of small promise and large delivery,not the other way around.
And secondly it might pay to sack some very expensive geoligst that are giving advise to the company. Gordon Ward said in hamilton that even the geoligst were suprised that the ventiluation shaft collapsed the way it did. I was brought up knowing that mine collapses occour from very fine cracks that you do not see.You do not see the cracks but you can hear them.I well remember many occasions watching my father and brothers with there ear to the rock face listening for stress in the mantle.Areas would then be labled safe or dangerous. I have never heard of a safe one that collapsed. But hey i am talking about Canadian Miners --the best in the world. So the ventulation shaft collapsed because the rock at the bottom was under a lot of stress and was talking to technical proffessionals who do not have decades of rock face experience to know what the stress sounds were saying.
Now do i need to go on about running into this garbon--surely not.Just lack of mining knowledge.
Might leave the rest of what i got to say for some other time.Finish with a call for a few changes at the PIKE face,otherwise the errors will just keep hapening. I wanted this before we invested more monies.

[Chris Roberts]

Digger you need to get an answer phone - we've tried calling you back around a dozen times over the past three weeks!

[digger]

Digger you need to get an answer phone - we've tried calling you back around a dozen times over the past three weeks!

Thanks Chris for that info. We have been busy and on holidays or shopping ,etc so maybe we do need an answer phone.
I am very hopeful the company is fully aware of the need for changes in the way PIKE informs [not] the shareholders of what is going on.
I will ring you at 4 this afternoon.

[fish]

Hi Digger,

Your comments about Pike Geology and the lack of anticipation of finding unstable rock around a fault line seem very valid .
We are all human and make mistakes but you would think that some of the ? 20 geologists employed by nzo might have advised on the possibility .
How did your phone call with Chris go ?
Are the geologists or Pike River management going to be paid bonus,s or have salary increases this year ?
My feeling is that it would be sending the wrong message if anyone at PRC had a salary increase this year .

[digger]

Hi Digger,

Your comments about Pike Geology and the lack of anticipation of finding unstable rock around a fault line seem very valid .
We are all human and make mistakes but you would think that some of the ? 20 geologists employed by nzo might have advised on the possibility .
How did your phone call with Chris go ?
Are the geologists or Pike River management going to be paid bonus,s or have salary increases this year ?
My feeling is that it would be sending the wrong message if anyone at PRC had a salary increase this year .

Hi Fish,
We did not talk about salary increases. In fact such under the circumstances such a thought is and should remain unthinkable.
As a 30% shareholder NZO is not entitled to any info about PIKE that is not available to every other shareholder,so NZO only know what we know from public releases.Chris seemed to think in the next week or two the Garbon should be clear.But even that is going on Cals from PIKE's release.
My comments were noted as i outlined in previous posts about geologist that are making too many mistakes but Chris seems to think they are now slowly getting the feel of the mine and its problems. I particularly wanted to know why the Garbon was not known about until it was struck. About two years ago I did ask Gordon ward about when they first hit coal would it not be coal and then rock and then coal. To me that is more likely given the Fault being sooooo near. GW assured me his geologist were confident it would be all coal once coal was struck. Well now they are doing what i call minute holes to know in advance what is there. This is an area i want to know more about. Chris did say that the company did want to do more exploratory drilling but could not do to the Park thing.
Balance has made some comments that Liberty Harbor wanted out but i am assured that PIKE has the right to pay them back as i suspected.
Also he feels that PIKE will get underwriten.
My two main points about ventilation shaft and the Garbon i will have to take up with PIKE itself.
The other point is that when NZO become the bond holder they will be entitled to more info than as just a shareholder but to us that is of little use as that info to a bond holder is not available for general release.
I also pointed out that NZO won last years best info to shareholder and PIKE must have come last. Well lets hope they came last as it must not get any worse.More PIKE missed targets will now rub off on NZO so we really need to act in this area.
I would like to see PIKE take up a weekly release of coal stockpiled to meet there own targets.Also stressed the need to get bad info out from the directors and not wait until the press or pub spreads the news.Note these are just my thoughts and as PIKE is a seperate company NZO can only pass on these thoughts.
The good news here is that the resource is there and the price is rising so all will probably turn out in the end.In fact it would not suprise me if and when PIKE get underway if the SP will outpreform NZO. But for now PIKE is NZO's Achilles heel.
I want PIKE to sack the geologist that made the mistakes and hire some old miner that has spent his life in mines. Probable never read a book in his life but can read rocks and much better than some theoratical geologists working from a comfortable office.
Cheers for now.

[LJB]

Sympathise with your sentiments Digger.
However, I suspect it takes a bit more than a bit of rock kicking with hobnails to find the motherload whether it be coal, oil or gold. Correct me if I'm wrong, but a graben was probably always on the risk analysis from the start.

[Balance]

Sympathise with your sentiments Digger.
However, I suspect it takes a bit more than a bit of rock kicking with hobnails to find the motherload whether it be coal, oil or gold. Correct me if I'm wrong, but a graben was probably always on the risk analysis from the start.

Read some of the old postings. Many believed in nothing less than a clean clear easy run to the coal and a $5.00 PRC share price.

Anyone writing otherwise were decried and crucified.

[dsurf]

Read some of the old postings. Many believed in nothing less than a clean clear easy run to the coal and a $5.00 PRC share price.

Anyone writing otherwise were decried and crucified.

Time to move on?

[notie]

Time to move on?

I guess people have said the same thing about nzog shares.

The rate they are blowing money on pike and their offices/staff means they are going backwards fast

[Balance]

I guess people have said the same thing about nzog shares.

The rate they are blowing money on pike and their offices/staff means they are going backwards fast

There's always the next well to drill?

Wish NZOG would pay a high dividend to shareholders and when it makes big investment decisions like putting more money into that dark hole PRC or invest in some offshore venture, it has to convince shareholders to put money in via a cash issue.

That day will never come however.

[the machine]

nzo investment in ppp now looking pretty sick with sp of 25c au.

nzocan buy another 4% of ppp to take it to just under 19% and thus not required to make a bid for company, however have to be mindful that once a non australian company owns more than 15% then ppp will not longer be classed as an entirely australian owned and what implications this will cause I do not know - it may be just more reporting or it may be more.

upcoming tui drills have to be good and there are no prizes for guessing what shareholders will be expressing if they are not good and nzo investment goes sour

M

[Corporate]

nzo investment in ppp now looking pretty sick with sp of 25c au.

nzocan buy another 4% of ppp to take it to just under 19% and thus not required to make a bid for company, however have to be mindful that once a non australian company owns more than 15% then ppp will not longer be classed as an entirely australian owned and what implications this will cause I do not know - it may be just more reporting or it may be more.

upcoming tui drills have to be good and there are no prizes for guessing what shareholders will be expressing if they are not good and nzo investment goes sour

M

What average price did NZOG end up paying for PPP do you know?

This is just another example of NZOG throwing cash at something and hoping for the best. What is their strategy for PPP?

[notie]

What average price did NZOG end up paying for PPP do you know?

This is just another example of NZOG throwing cash at something and hoping for the best. What is their strategy for PPP?

I don't think there is a strategy. PPP and the mess with prc demonstrates that.

Tui wells will not be home runs. One should come in but the Kahu channel target looks very risky. Not that nzog has much sway in the partnership when it comes to decision making.

[digger]

What average price did NZOG end up paying for PPP do you know?

This is just another example of NZOG throwing cash at something and hoping for the best. What is their strategy for PPP?

Strange how most of us have very short memories. It was not that long ago when NZO was berated for not buying more of PPP. The story then was look at how much they lost when they could have bought at 40 to 50 cents.
I place little likehood NZO will increase in PPP even now with the need to focus on PIKE. Pike will end up a good producer even if now they are well behing[2 years] what formally was targeted. Now i think PIKE is in a much better understanding of the problems with this coal mine. The resource is there and the plan to produce is slowly taking shape. So with PIKE will we in two years again show our short memory and say NZO should have taken out PRC when it was only 85 cents in March 2010. Would not suprise me,and it will be the same ones now saying the opposite what was said a few months ago about PPP.

[sideline]

Strange how most of us have very short memories. It was not that long ago when NZO was berated for not buying more of PPP. The story then was look at how much they lost when they could have bought at 40 to 50 cents.
I place little likehood NZO will increase in PPP even now with the need to focus on PIKE. Pike will end up a good producer even if now they are well behing[2 years] what formally was targeted. Now i think PIKE is in a much better understanding of the problems with this coal mine. The resource is there and the plan to produce is slowly taking shape. So with PIKE will we in two years again show our short memory and say NZO should have taken out PRC when it was only 85 cents in March 2010. Would not suprise me,and it will be the same ones now saying the opposite what was said a few months ago about PPP.

From my memory: the 'strategy' re PPP purchase was mainly to support its shareprice while it was trading below its cash backing during the 'GFC'. TR would likely have been worried that some raider snaps it up on the cheap. The purchase price was mostly in the 20s cent range, so it is still a good investment (plus the divvi received).

[blockhead]

I'm with you Digger, I can't believe the number of "down day" moaners, as soon as things look a bit tough you all start whinging, making dosh is not simple, good times and bad times go hand in hand, Some of you buggars need to harden up a bit. Being in business involves taking risks, you might lose a bit (or your shirt) and you might make a bit (or a house in the Sounds).

Nog is in the oil and coal business at the moment...risky but could be (will be in my opinion) rewarding.

Didn't notice Scott Styris goin all soft when the Ozzie bowler wanted to stare him down last night, thats what I like in a joker, take no sh.t !!

[BigBob]

I'm with you Digger, I can't believe the number of "down day" moaners, as soon as things look a bit tough you all start whinging, making dosh is not simple, good times and bad times go hand in hand, Some of you buggars need to harden up a bit. Being in business involves taking risks, you might lose a bit (or your shirt) and you might make a bit (or a house in the Sounds).

Nog is in the oil and coal business at the moment...risky but could be (will be in my opinion) rewarding.

Didn't notice Scott Styris goin all soft when the Ozzie bowler wanted to stare him down last night, thats what I like in a joker, take no sh.t !!

Hear, hear...!! That is the most sensible comment I've read on this thread for a while...! (apart from Digger's, of course...)

[777]

But we need these negative people to create price drops so I can trade profitably. Keep it up I say.

[Balance]

Hear, hear...!! That is the most sensible comment I've read on this thread for a while...! (apart from Digger's, of course...)

Biggest BS comment - just as posters go happy as things are going well, so are they perfectly entitled to voice concerns when things are going badly.

This is not Burma or Iran, you know?

[BigBob]

Biggest BS comment - just as posters go happy as things are going well, so are they perfectly entitled to voice concerns when things are going badly.

This is not Burma or Iran, you know?

Where in my reply do you see an attempt to ban or otherwise prevent you from posting...? I am merely stating that I agree with Blockhead and Digger... you can post all you like - I just don't agree with you...

[Wiremu]

BigBob - and you have the support of many others.

Nothing has changed since this posting in September 2007:

"Balance your a share knocker freak.You must have got your schooling from religious zealous. You have the intended ability to see only what you want to find. I am left wondering why the NZO SP is not about 10 cents after reading your supposed balance comments. Could you shed any light on why it is still over a dollar dispite your many attempts to get it lower.
Finally is there any difference between Balance,Sniper,etc.

[Balance]

BigBob - and you have the support of many others.

But of course you would write that.

We don't see you cheerleading PRC any more and putting down posters who disagree with the harping on and on of how great PRC was.

Luckily there were those posters who provided balance?


"Dr Who,

And what grounds do you have for accusations of insider trading?

Is it that a share price rise goes against your continuous and often irrelevant flow of negative information?"

[Logen Ninefingers]

If no oil has been discovered after the Kan Tan IV does its spate of drilling, how much will the SP drop? I know it's hard to determine but would like to see some estimates.

[Billy Boy]

Hear, hear...!! That is the most sensible comment I've read on this thread for a while...! (apart from Digger's, of course...)

Of course It was ME that taught Blockhead all he knows, ya know ;) :D
BB

[the machine]

From my memory: the 'strategy' re PPP purchase was mainly to support its shareprice while it was trading below its cash backing during the 'GFC'. TR would likely have been worried that some raider snaps it up on the cheap. The purchase price was mostly in the 20s cent range, so it is still a good investment (plus the divvi received).

sideline, TR was not privy to nzo board decision [without him] to make the play

M

[blockhead]

Thought you would be way down the crib BB where there is no internet, have they even got the phone down there yet ??

[blockhead]

Let the games begin !!

The Kan Tan IV drilling rig is on location and is preparing to start drilling the Hoki-1 exploration well.

Regards

Chris Roberts

Public Affairs Manager

[evilant]

a silly question.

if you were investing in this drill. Wouldnt you be better to invest in AWE ? seeing as NZo only has 10% ??

Participants in Hoki-1 and PEP 38401 are:
AWE (Operator) 50%
New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd (through its subsidiary Petroleum Resources Ltd)
10%
OMV New Zealand Pty Ltd 21.25%
Todd Petroleum Mining Company Ltd 18.75%

[blockhead]

Obviously some think so, AWE are up nearly 5% today

[manxman]

a silly question.

if you were investing in this drill. Wouldnt you be better to invest in AWE ? seeing as NZo only has 10% ??

Participants in Hoki-1 and PEP 38401 are:
AWE (Operator) 50%
New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd (through its subsidiary Petroleum Resources Ltd)
10%
OMV New Zealand Pty Ltd 21.25%
Todd Petroleum Mining Company Ltd 18.75%

Not a silly question at all. Since AWE has a market cap of $A1331 million, and 50% of the action, you would need to spend $1331/50 million to get 1% of the action, or perhaps $A2662 to get 1 millionth of the action.

With NZO market cap $A455 million and a 10% share you have to spend $A4550 to get 1 millionth of the action.

Both have other assets, but for a pure play on this drill, AWE is a clear winner.

[Logen Ninefingers]

If NZO found Kupe why did they only end up with 15% of it?

[troyvdh]

Its my understanding that 1 in 10 drills are successfull...has anyone given/considered the odds on this one....more from a pure punting/odds point of view.

Hold AWE NZO

cheers

[Lion]

Logen, Kupe cost over a billion dollars to develop, was it $1.3b at the end? Way too much for NZOG on their own. Oil and gas companies usually "farmout" their interest in fields, spreading the risk and the rewards.

[Logen Ninefingers]

Cheers, seems a shame that you find something and end up with 15% of it. How come PPP didn't get a stake? (Or didn't they want one?)That would have effectively been good for NZO due to their stake in PPP.....another way of them getting more value out of the asset they discovered. Anyone know?

[the machine]

hoki-1 article

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/3411399/Dud-or-dollars-wildcat-well-set-to-yield-truth

M

[Lion]

hoki-1 article

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/3411399/Dud-or-dollars-wildcat-well-set-to-yield-truth

M

Possibly up to 250 million barrels, it reckons? I recall an article a few years ago about several possible "elephants" off the Taranaki Coast in deep water. They had sheep names like Romney and merino. Does anyone else remember that? I wonder if this is one of these elephant sheep. As the article says, if there's oil in Hoki, it increases the chance of more finds nearby. Another question - does NZOG have interest in nearby permits? I suppose I could look it up.

Price of oil has been edging up this last month. And $NZ down. Latest figures - Tapis US$83.36 and $NZ at 69.7, gives NZ $119.60 per barrel. The Feb average was $110.

Exciting times again!

[swissboy]

On the 4th Dez 2009 we received an update on Kupe stating that production will be bedded down within a couple of month. After more than 3 month we do not appear to have any confirmation. What's going on???

[digger]

On the 4th Dez 2009 we received an update on Kupe stating that production will be bedded down within a couple of month. After more than 3 month we do not appear to have any confirmation. What's going on???

What is going on is NOG time,so wait out this couple of months and all will be revealed.If problems were greater than the usual teething startups we could expect to have heard. Be positive --no news is good news. Now time to get excited about this Hoki drill. Probably the snowball's chance but you never know.

[Unicorn]

On the 4th Dez 2009 we received an update on Kupe stating that production will be bedded down within a couple of month. After more than 3 month we do not appear to have any confirmation. What's going on???

There was an update in the last Quarterly Activities Report. The commissioning phase was progressing well and the official opening was expected in mid-March. I would expect another announcement from the company in the next week or two. If the plant is ready for permanent production this month, then that would be a pretty good achievement.

Digger, NOG time seems to have been largely consigned to the past. Perhaps Gordon Ward borrowed it for PRC.

[Nitaa]

Perhaps Gordon Ward borrowed it for PRC.and with interest.

[manxman]

Hi all. Been sidelined but will watch with interest over the coming months

Nice to see you back - especially that avatar

[Arbitrage]

Has anyone heard how the drilling is going?

[Logen Ninefingers]

I read that the Hoki results should be known 3 weeks after the commencement of the drilling.

[manxman]

I read that the Hoki results should be known 3 weeks after the commencement of the drilling.

And the result will be that hydrocarbons will be found and it will take three more drills over two years to determine whether there is a commercially viable structure. Thats the good side. It might be a dry hole, in which case three weeks will do the job. There hasn't been a gusher since before Doris Day became a virgin.

[the machine]

no

weekly report will be out within 7 days

m

[dsurf]

no

weekly report will be out within 7 days

m

M - thanks for factual informative posts

[J R Ewing]

Is that seven days GMT or NOG time?

[Logen Ninefingers]

Won't the report after 7 days just state where they are at in terms of the drilling depth? In that case it won't be information of any consequence in terms of: is this well dry or not. It would be the actual outcome of the drilling the would interest most people I would guess.

[Mr Tommy]

It might be a dry hole, in which case three weeks will do the job. There hasn't been a gusher since before Doris Day became a virgin.

Who is Doris Day? Was she the NZOG tea lady ?

[Arbitrage]

These days NZOG should give a daily progress report. Drilling is so quick that 7 days is too long. Look at the last hole they drilled.
Back in the drilling boom of the 80's reports were made far more regularly with much poorer communication technology. Perhaps even a Twitter commentary each day to keep the investors better informed?

How about it NZOG?

[the machine]

Is that seven days GMT or NOG time?

I might stand corrected but thought NOG time had sped up somewhat, ever since that divi in 2008.

Probably less than 100 hours to go now before weekly update

M

[blockhead]

Drilled to 1500 metres already, bloody hell should be in the oil by Tuesday I reckon !!

[Turboman]

NZO
11/03/2010
MINE

REL: 1151 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited

MINE: NZO: Hoki Exploration Well Disclosure Notice

NZOG (New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd) advises that the Kan Tan IV drilling rig,
having spudded the Hoki-1 exploration well on 5 March, is currently running
13 3/8 inch casing, having drilled to 1505 metres.

The Hoki-1 well is located in exploration permit PEP 38401 in the offshore
Taranaki Basin.

It lies approximately 135 kilometres west of New Plymouth and in water depth
of approximately 330 metres.

Hoki-1 is targeting the oil potential of the Cretaceous North Cape reservoir
sequence and the underlying Wainui sandstones. The well is planned to be
drilled to a total depth of approximately 3,570 metres.

Immediately following the Hoki-1 well, the Kan Tan IV will be used to drill
at least two wells in the area surrounding the existing oil fields at Tui,
where NZOG is a 12.5% partner.

[macduffy]

These days NZOG should give a daily progress report. Drilling is so quick that 7 days is too long. Look at the last hole they drilled.
Back in the drilling boom of the 80's reports were made far more regularly with much poorer communication technology. Perhaps even a Twitter commentary each day to keep the investors better informed?

How about it NZOG?

AWE, as the operator here controls the release of drilling information.

Hence, the release of reports today by both companies.

http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100311/pdf/31p66b24qtjsfc.pdf

[Mr Tommy]

I just read its costing $31.5m to drill Hoki over 3 weeks, which is about $1.5m a day.
If it only takes 2 weeks, do we get it cheaper?
Or will they drill on the the Tui wells for free during the spare week - yeah right.

[Mr Tommy]

Story from mid last year, something to drool over while we wait ...

http://nzenergy-environment.co.nz/home/free-articles/could-hoki-1-lead-to-the-saudi-of-the-deep-south.html

[biker]

These days NZOG should give a daily progress report. Drilling is so quick that 7 days is too long. Look at the last hole they drilled.
Back in the drilling boom of the 80's reports were made far more regularly with much poorer communication technology. Perhaps even a Twitter commentary each day to keep the investors better informed?

How about it NZOG?

Oh no no, can't have that I'm afraid. Just not cricket for the AWE et al. insiders, what what.

[manxman]

I just read its costing $31.5m to drill Hoki over 3 weeks, which is about $1.5m a day.
If it only takes 2 weeks, do we get it cheaper?


I believe in the normal course of events, the rig will be hired by the day, with allowances for mobilization and relocation. If its a dry hole, they could move to the TUI area early, but if they find a significant hydrocarbon shows, then they may spend some time testing the various horizons. If it takes a few extra days counting all the barrels, that will be extra for the rig. The worst case is if there is a significant quantity of gas, which will make the development decisions very complex, and may stymie the development completely.
As Albacore showed, if there is nothing found, they can pop holes down very quickly. If they are still at Hoki next week then things will be interesting indeed.

[neopoleII]

yes albacore had a very soft roof, therefore nothing in the field worth going for.....as oil rises and disapats up and out.
does anyone know when geoligist shoot the sismics, if they are able to scan for dense strata above a likely target?
i know they can scan the bedrock below a field. and what about cracks or faults in the strata above a field?
is there a site that explains the workings of sismic scanning and interpritation .

[arjay]

Story from mid last year, something to drool over while we wait ...

http://nzenergy-environment.co.nz/home/free-articles/could-hoki-1-lead-to-the-saudi-of-the-deep-south.html

That was also the hype around the Rakiura and Pukaki drills in the GSB back in 1983/4. They ended up as the Yemen of the Deep South.

[Lion]

That was also the hype around the Rakiura and Pukaki drills in the GSB back in 1983/4. They ended up as the Yemen of the Deep South.

The past is no indication of the future

[digger]

That was also the hype around the Rakiura and Pukaki drills in the GSB back in 1983/4. They ended up as the Yemen of the Deep South.

Hi Arjay,
We must meet up again sometime. Interesting is I a made a very similiar comments about Mr Tommy's post but when looking up the list of wells we drilled that were also had heaps of predrill hype my post disappeared into hyperspace and i had other things to do so did not retype it. But still as Mr Tommy says it is good to dream on while we wait for the hard facts----and then return to our old jobs with heads down a little . This time we will not have long to wait until the next big thing. No doubt that the near TUI wells are the next south Mexico---pre the collapse that is.

[Casa del Energia]

yes albacore had a very soft roof, therefore nothing in the field worth going for.....as oil rises and disapats up and out.
does anyone know when geoligist shoot the sismics, if they are able to scan for dense strata above a likely target?
i know they can scan the bedrock below a field. and what about cracks or faults in the strata above a field?
is there a site that explains the workings of sismic scanning and interpritation .

Sound waves travel faster in higher density rock. There is also refraction when a wave travels from one density to another and that gives a lot of information as well. By taking muliple shots at the same target or scattered simultaneous recordings you can caluclulate depth and density - pretty hair raising comptuer power needed to unpick all the data though.

None of this tells you what colour the rock is though - or what it smells like.

[neopoleII]

thanks Casa for that.
so if it takes hair raising computer power, what did they do in the past, mainly as little as 10 - 20 years ago.
im asuming that further back like 50 years ago it was all wildcat territory?
im wondering now what the future might bring with satalite scanning or some such thing.
i think that oil explorers looking for investment dollars from the public could do themselves a big favour
by explaining how they go about their trade in searching for oil.
instead of just showing a coloured digital scan with arrows pointing at an area which they believe is oil, and saying there
might be a million or billion bbls.
and then ask us to pay for it.

[brucey09]

Senors
A new study.
ScienceDaily (Mar. 11, 2010) — In a finding that may speed efforts to conserve oil and intensify the search for alternative fuel sources, scientists in Kuwait predict that world conventional crude oil production will peak in 2014 -- almost a decade earlier than some other predictions. Their study is in ACS' Energy & Fuels.
See Also:
Matter & Energy

* Petroleum
* Energy Policy

Earth & Climate

* Energy and the Environment
* Environmental Issues

Science & Society

* Energy Issues
* Environmental Policies

Reference

* Fossil fuel
* Exxon Valdez
* Saturated fat
* Hydrocarbon

Ibrahim Nashawi and colleagues point out that rapid growth in global oil consumption has sparked a growing interest in predicting "peak oil" -- the point where oil production reaches a maximum and then declines. Scientists have developed several models to forecast this point, and some put the date at 2020 or later. One of the most famous forecast models, called the Hubbert model, accurately predicted that oil production would peak in the United States in 1970. The model has since gained in popularity and has been used to forecast oil production worldwide. However, recent studies show that the model is insufficient to account for more complex oil production cycles of some countries. Those cycles can be heavily influenced by technology changes, politics, and other factors, the scientists say.

The new study describe development of a new version of the Hubbert model that accounts for these individual production trends to provide a more realistic and accurate oil production forecast. Using the new model, the scientists evaluated the oil production trends of 47 major oil-producing countries, which supply most of the world's conventional crude oil. They estimated that worldwide conventional crude oil production will peak in 2014, years earlier than anticipated. The scientists also showed that the world's oil reserves are being depleted at a rate of 2.1 percent a year. The new model could help inform energy-related decisions and public policy debate, they suggest.

[Casa del Energia]

NeopoleII

Well, as much as the computer people would have you believe otherwise - computers haven't got any better in the last 20yrs - just cheaper. When I were a lad - time on an IBM 3090 cost $1.20 per second of CPU. But those old 3090s could rip through calculations quicker a bolt of lighting greased up with WD 10/30.
And in those days -you had programmers who knew how to write efficient code.

50 years ago (more like 90 actually)- - One of the first oil explorers in the middle east (can't remember who they were), struck a happy bit of dumb luck by drilling on the top of the hillocks and by pure co-incidence that's where the anticlines were. So, yes - sort of wildcat, hunch and indicators such as oil seeps.

Satellites wont do much for oil people - ok for spotting stuff on the surface and larger gravitational anomalies (the Tibetan plateau makes satellites dip in their orbit - but nothing like the sensitivity of star treks tri-corders.

On the hand - it was Rutherford who said that you'd never get energy out of atomic decay ('is talking moonshine') - so you never know.

Brucey09 -

I was wondering when peak oil would raise its ugly head again. I note that whilst Europe and NA are both pretty much static in oil demand - but the boom time boys in the far east are rapidly ramping up demand - - wasn't there a report just the other day that China's oil imports for Jan leapt out of the box?

I'm paying for it at the pump already. Had to take a mortgage out last time I filled up.

[Macleod]

...as much as the computer people would have you believe otherwise - computers haven't got any better in the last 20yrs - just cheaper.

I'd like to hear your facts on that one. lol

[manxman]

I'd like to hear your facts on that one. lol

When I were a lad, computers were young ladies who calculated the stresses and strains in the airship factory. They were very good and you didn't ask the price.