FPH - Fisher Paykel Healthcare.

[alokdhir]

W69 ...Long time back u told us about your friend who do work for FPH ...He was the first one who flagged that his work load from FPH has gone down significantly .

Now whats his view ? R they doing better then pre pandemic or worse at present ?

I fully understand FPH's given reasons for low revenues at present ...but in hindsight I think his level of work from them will be the best leading indicator of FPH's change of fortunes

So if u still in touch then try to get a update from him for us mate !!!

[winner69]

W69 ...Long time back u told us about your friend who do work for FPH ...He was the first one who flagged that his work load from FPH has gone down significantly .

Now whats his view ? R they doing better then pre pandemic or worse at present ?

I fully understand FPH's given reasons for low revenues at present ...but in hindsight I think his level of work from them will be the best leading indicator of FPH's change of fortunes

So if u still in touch then try to get a update from him for us mate !!!

About a year ago that was -- wasn't a friend but some guy talking on the radio. In hindsight it was good intelligence eh .... but can't provide an update


Talking of updates I wonder what what that guy Josh who does videos thinks of FPH prospects now

[alokdhir]

About a year ago that was -- wasn't a friend but some guy talking on the radio. In hindsight it was good intelligence eh .... but can't provide an update


Talking of updates I wonder what what that guy Josh who does videos thinks of FPH prospects now

He also like analysts keep changing his mind in hindsight ....lol

[winner69]

Geraldine is keeping the faith .... even though she's left as a Director

McBride said she would be holding onto her FPH shares (she holds just 1262 shares out of 577-odd million on issue) because she believed the company would continue to make “long-term sustainable growth”.

https://www.nbr.co.nz/investment/out-going-fph-director-says-stock-is-undervalued/
prob paywalled

[dobby41]

Geraldine is keeping the faith .... even though she's left as a Director

McBride said she would be holding onto her FPH shares (she holds just 1262 shares out of 577-odd million on issue) because she believed the company would continue to make “long-term sustainable growth”.

https://www.nbr.co.nz/investment/out-going-fph-director-says-stock-is-undervalued/
prob paywalled

If it was that undervalued you'd think she would buy more than a 'rounding error' of shares.
1262 - bit of a joke.

[winner69]

Tim Hunter in NBR

The madness of crowds
Expectations of the gains from Covid for Fisher & Paykel were bullish, until they weren’t.

https://www.nbr.co.nz/hunters-corner/the-madness-of-crowds/
prob paywalled .... as they will say take out a sub

From our vantage point in what was once the future, we can see the market miscalculated F&P Healthcare’s performance by billions of dollars, which is a lot.

The result for some investors was probably costly, so it’s worth looking back to see what we can learn.

[winner69]

hey alokdhir - looks like fph related exports were down in July ...just looking at Stats NZ merchandise data

What's your read ....no doubt impact included in the recent announcement

Inote marketscreener has analysts forecasting FY23 sales at $1.417m - 3% lower than last week and profit forecast down to $195m ... and they seem to be winding back F24 and F25 forecasts quite a lot.

Wow F23 analyst forecast profit $195m is about the same they made in F18 - must have some bugs in their spreadsheets

[alokdhir]

hey alokdhir - looks like fph related exports were down in July ...just looking at Stats NZ merchandise data

What's your read ....no doubt impact included in the recent announcement

Inote marketscreener has analysts forecasting FY23 sales at $1.417m - 3% lower than last week and profit forecast down to $195m ... and they seem to be winding back F24 and F25 forecasts quite a lot.

Wow F23 analyst forecast profit $195m is about the same they made in F18 - must have some bugs in their spreadsheets

July data is similar ....nothing flash but small improvement over last months ...will estimate as $ 125 Mil revenue

FPH is going thru its normalising process and it will take its normal time ....on top of that general financial markets are in bad shape due to hyper inflation so in the short term nothing to look forward to

But as market went overly bullish with SP and forecasts in 2020 ...now they will do the same on downside ...nothing new as thats how markets work in short term

But seeing the quality of the company and its products ...it will come back ...surely will take time but SP will grow over the years ...lol

At least they not doing equity raising and ambushing retail investors ....lol

[winner69]

A2 made a big deal of talking about their high operational cash conversion of 114% the other day

Superior than FPH manage ..... something that's always surprised me with FPH is their relatively poor record of converting profits into cash

[alokdhir]

After seeing the exports trends from last four months ...all four months look very similar but with July being marginally the best

97 M , 92M , 95 M and 99 M ....last four months NZ exports data ...if this is their worst ( Hopefully ) then we should see uptick ahead to forecast better times

Also their first half margins are always lower then second half margins for reasons unknown to me ....last 8 years trends show that clearly ...maybe Northern hemisphere winter works better for them or they book some fixed costs ahead or ....

[alokdhir]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/398048

FPH doing what it said ...why commit so much money if they dont see growth ahead ? Maybe Forbar analysts should answer that with inputs from W69 and Mr B ... lol

" The purchase of the Karaka land is subject to approval by New Zealand’s Overseas Investment Office and will be funded through a combination of operating cash flow and debt facilities. The site is currently mixed zoning (future urban and rural). "

So no new equity raising via SPP !!!!

[winner69]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/398048

FPH doing what it said ...why commit so much money if they dont see growth ahead ? Maybe Forbar analysts should answer that with inputs from W69 and Mr B ...lol


They going to double sales every fives years ….that’s fantastic

Maybe in 5 years FPH share price might be $25 ….that’s pretty good

Alokdhir ….youstill ‘expect’ ’ to make 15% pa returns into the future?

[alokdhir]

They going to double sales every fives years ….that’s fantastic

Maybe in 5 years FPH share price might be $25 ….that’s pretty good

Alokdhir ….youstill ‘expect’ ’ to make 15% pa returns into the future?

I will wait few years to answer that ...maybe time will answer that .

HGH maybe better bet in your eyes ...but for me FPH is gold ...:D

[Louloubell]

I think FPH is the best share to dripfeed money into for a long term investment, which is exactly what I'm doing.

[winner69]

Couldn't but help that Morningstar in it's analysis of FPH described it's moat as narrow (ie not wide)

Probably adds to its 'risk profile' as a stock

Their analysis can't be too bad as they put a $24.00 value on FPH

[alokdhir]

Couldn't but help that Morningstar in it's analysis of FPH described it's moat as narrow (ie not wide)

Probably adds to its 'risk profile' as a stock

Their analysis can't be too bad as they put a $24.00 value on FPH

I have yet to see any stock they put moat as wide ...narrow is best they say !!!!

[ithaka]

I have yet to see any stock they put moat as wide ...narrow is best they say !!!!
The main banks, WES, AIA are rated as wide.

[iceman]

The main banks, WES, AIA are rated as wide.

AIA !! That’s funny. All countries have international airports that compete with AIA for passenger throughput. AIA is a serious laggard in the last couple of years. I took 7 flights in Europe in the last 2 weeks and every single one was full and airports bursting at the seems. AIA is all but closed. Wrong thread I know but just pointing out the silliness of Morningstar’s calls !

[kiora]

Couldn't but help that Morningstar in it's analysis of FPH described it's moat as narrow (ie not wide)

Probably adds to its 'risk profile' as a stock

Their analysis can't be too bad as they put a $24.00 value on FPH

I would assume they assessed the patents???
"Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Patents"
https://www.fphcare.com/nz/corporate/about-us/patents/

[winner69]

Goodness gracious - FPH close at $18.90 yesterday

Not just a 52 week low but its share price is back to where it was about 3 years ago (2019)

Not surprising really as current profits are about the same as back then

Still valued at an outrageously high PE - >50 times forecast earnings

The big question is can FPH live up to these high expectations to justify that valuation multiple .... or will come this time next year it will have been 'rerated' down to something more reasonable with a share price of $10 to $15

[Swala]

AIA !! That’s funny. All countries have international airports that compete with AIA for passenger throughput. AIA is a serious laggard in the last couple of years. I took 7 flights in Europe in the last 2 weeks and every single one was full and airports bursting at the seems. AIA is all but closed. Wrong thread I know but just pointing out the silliness of Morningstar’s calls !

Surely the wide moat that Morningstar gives to AIA relates to it's airport status in Auckland where it does have a monopoly, it doesn't really compete with other airports around the world.

[BlackPeter]

Goodness gracious - FPH close at $18.90 yesterday

Not just a 52 week low but its share price is back to where it was about 3 years ago (2019)

Not surprising really as current profits are about the same as back then

Still valued at an outrageously high PE - >50 times forecast earnings

The big question is can FPH live up to these high expectations to justify that valuation multiple .... or will come this time next year it will have been 'rerated' down to something more reasonable with a share price of $10 to $15

Hmm - average forward PE (3 years) is as far as I can see "just" 34.5 (not >50) ... but, you are right, still pretty dear, even if we take as well the predicted earnings CAGR of 5.7 into account (screwed up by this huge earnings peak in the last couple of years, hard to outgrow them fast ...).

So - I guess, the question is - will their earnings growth accelerate beyond the imagination of the typically optimistic analysts?

I guess its possible ... depends on how useful and busy all these breathing devices they recently sold really are in hospitals over the years to come. If they are used, they will make top dollars with consumables.

If not - then they probably just drop back into their long term growth curve, and in that case a bottom between $10 to $ 15 might well be a possibility.

I probably would not bet the farm on them growing faster than analysts predict and not on what long term hype might do to their share price.

Still - I think it is a company which belongs into any NZ long term investment portfolio ... so I used to keep my (still quite modest) parcel - and certainly ready to buy some more IF & WHEN they drop into the proposed band.

[Waltzing]

Yes think you on the money there BP....

it was a great trade and then a sell when the P/E went into space...

Gas has been the new ride...

[Rawz]

Goodness gracious - FPH close at $18.90 yesterday

Not just a 52 week low but its share price is back to where it was about 3 years ago (2019)

Not surprising really as current profits are about the same as back then

Still valued at an outrageously high PE - >50 times forecast earnings

The big question is can FPH live up to these high expectations to justify that valuation multiple .... or will come this time next year it will have been 'rerated' down to something more reasonable with a share price of $10 to $15

Winner you called it! (and beagle)

[winner69]

Share price on fire today ….could be 20 bucks by end of day

[alokdhir]

Share price on fire today ….could be 20 bucks by end of day

Maybe China placed big orders ...lol ...Volumes are huge ...can be turning point as normally at turning points volumes are huge !!

Believe in quality of company ....all businesses have cycles

[alokdhir]

Share price on fire today ….could be 20 bucks by end of day

U called it again mate ...just a day late but reached $ 20 as u said ....

[alokdhir]

" Fisher and Paykel, which sells 350 million respiratory masks a year, was given a boost with the announcement that Philips Respironics is recalling 17 million CPAP masks used by patients with sleep apnea."

Reason for it going up ...It needs more breaks like this to come back ...lol


https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/safety-communications/certain-philips-respironics-masks-bipap-cpap-machines-recalled-due-safety-issue-magnets-may-affect

[alokdhir]

https://www.tipranks.com/news/blurbs/fisher-paykel-healthcare-corporation-limited-fspkf-gets-a-buy-from-jarden?mod=mw_quote_news

Maybe time has come for tide to change ....finger crossed :D

[alokdhir]

17 Mil Masks are being recalled which will need immediate replacement ...at retail price of $ 250 that translates to over $ 4.5 Billion immediate business

As FPH is good with masks then machines ....I hope FPH will get good traction on its sagging post covid sales

[RTM]

17 Mil Masks are being recalled which will need immediate replacement ...at retail price of $ 250 that translates to over $ 4.5 Billion immediate business

As FPH is good with masks then machines ....I hope FPH will get good traction on its sagging post covid sales

Illustrates the risks in this type of business. Immediate business ? Do you think they will have inventory to match this ?

[alokdhir]

Illustrates the risks in this type of business. Immediate business ? Do you think they will have inventory to match this ?

Not possible but FPH has demonstrated before that they can manage peak demands very well ...so it should help them in many ways ...One mask competitor is out of business for long ...damage to reputation is also immense

FPH has many safeguards to prevent such mishaps thats why they spend almost 10% of revenue on R&D ...but risks are always there especially in USA markets where FDA is very proactive with mishaps reporting with medical equipment

[winner69]

alokdhir .... FPH need the billions they could get from faulty masks to make this ugly chart look better

As share prices follow profits the share price could / should go down a bit more

[alokdhir]

alokdhir .... FPH need the billions they could get from faulty masks to make this ugly chart look better

As share prices follow profits the share price could / should go down a bit more

I hope u remember how Covid changed all charts ...so actual business matters more then charts ...If business good then chart will follow to become good ...lol

[Toulouse - Luzern]

I hope u remember how Covid changed all charts ...so actual business matters more then charts ...If business good then chart will follow to become good ...lol

Resmed have masks too.

[alokdhir]

Resmed have masks too.

All have ...FPH never claimed monopoly on masks ...FPH had sleep apnea machines too but hardly got any extra business as its machines not that good compared to ResMeds ...but its masks are equally good if not better ...so this time FPH also going up with ResMed

[winner69]

I hope u remember how Covid changed all charts ...so actual business matters more then charts ...If business good then chart will follow to become good ...lol

But Lewis is saying business is not that good at the moment .... the chart is showing what Lewis is saying

[alokdhir]

But Lewis is saying business is not that good at the moment .... the chart is showing what Lewis is saying

What I was trying to say that business can change very soon like Covid changed it ....now this mask thing can change it if all goes well ...then charts will change too ....charts work in hindsight not a leading indicator ...imho

[winner69]

FPH share price holding up well today even though the world has packed a sad

[alokdhir]

August exports data looking most promising ....

Estimated revenues for August is $ 146 Mil ...UP 18.8 % from PCP !!!

Maybe extra masks sales helping .....

First increase in this FY ...hopefully it will surprise on upside in HY results ...for a change ...lol

[winner69]

a must watch

https://craigsip.com/insights/overview/2022/09/lewis-gradon-ceo-interview?utm_source=insights-enews-041022&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=insights-enews&utm_content=lewis-gradon-ceo-interview&_cldee=cxLTFAQ_UVVXQ16ikejlnl8Jjkft5I7j1ELKH5VUpPr FE7c6XDmuqjF2D-uF9o0s&recipientid=lead-2fc7192e098fe7119408005056a36616-feb15560591f441183ed4a6ebb89ae47&esid=87f167fa-5840-ed11-a2d4-00505681265f

I was disappointed that Mohandeep didn't ask Lewis 'would you pay 50 times earnings for one of your competitors?'

[alokdhir]

a must watch

https://craigsip.com/insights/overview/2022/09/lewis-gradon-ceo-interview?utm_source=insights-enews-041022&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=insights-enews&utm_content=lewis-gradon-ceo-interview&_cldee=cxLTFAQ_UVVXQ16ikejlnl8Jjkft5I7j1ELKH5VUpPr FE7c6XDmuqjF2D-uF9o0s&recipientid=lead-2fc7192e098fe7119408005056a36616-feb15560591f441183ed4a6ebb89ae47&esid=87f167fa-5840-ed11-a2d4-00505681265f

I was disappointed that Mohandeep didn't ask Lewis 'would you pay 50 times earnings for one of your competitors?'

People paid 300 times its earnings for Tesla ....then why not mate ...lol

Also when U buy a company ...U buy for future and not just for 6 months ...Wont they ?

[kiora]

When it forms a base it will be good buying.
Sooner than the punters think?

[alokdhir]

When it forms a base it will be good buying.
Sooner than the punters think?

Agree ...maybe just before HY results ...as that will be much better then at present consensus of 670 Mil and 90 mil NPAT ....

[kiora]

Building for the future.
Planning for it. Better planned than short term investors?
Time will tell.
"The respiratory products manufacturer said its current site was nearing capacity and it needed more land to enable its continued growth.

Chair Scott St John said the company had consistently signalled the importance of long-term infrastructure planning to help it deliver on its growth strategy.

F&P Healthcare has aspirations of doubling its constant currency revenue every five to six years."
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/fisher-paykel-healthcare-to-buy-karaka-land-for-expansion/PHAPRZ4LQH5H7XT43A3HDSIRNE/

[limmy]

The NZD now trading at only 0.5731 to the USD must surely be good for the bottom line of FPH.

[Walter]

People paid 300 times its earnings for Tesla ....then why not mate ...lol

Also when U buy a company ...U buy for future and not just for 6 months ...Wont they ?
Tesla is growing faster, has less debt and is more diversified. Tesla's PE is dropping quickly, so may be under F&P within a year or two.

[BlackPeter]

Tesla is growing faster, has less debt and is more diversified. Tesla's PE is dropping quickly, so may be under F&P within a year or two.

Who knows ... If you listen to Elon the Thick Finger, than Tesla is currently losing money (again). I would not know, but he twitters it. Wondering when they take this idiot out of the game. Sigh.

F&P on the other hand is writing consistently black numbers - and the trend is certainly pointing into the right direction. Backward PE (10 years) is 49, while forward PE (3 yrs, based on analyst consensus) is 34. While not outstanding, it is not too bad either in combination with a 6% earnings CAGR.

[alokdhir]

Tesla is growing faster, has less debt and is more diversified. Tesla's PE is dropping quickly, so may be under F&P within a year or two.

Further to what BP has highlighted ...as far as I know ....FPH is a debt free company with negative gearing means positive cash reserves since at least 2018 . They have a very strong balance sheet which helps them expand from internal resources ...latest is $ 82 Mil Cash positive for FY 23 forecasted

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/FISHER-PAYKEL-HEALTHCAR-6492630/financials/ (https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/FISHER-PAYKEL-HEALTHCAR-6492630/financials/)

[Walter]

You are correct, the F&P balance sheet is very strong. Even after paying for the new buildings, debt levels will be very conservative.

[winner69]

Headlines at market close today

F&P Healthcare drags market lower

On the equities market front, healthcare manufacturer Fisher & Paykel Healthcare slumped 4.4% to $18.73 and traded the most volume across the index – almost $11m.

Interest rates rising at great rate ..... wonder what FPH valuation is if analysts used a 10% discount rate .....or even higher than 10%

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/markets/fp-healthcare-drags-market-lower

[Baa_Baa]

Headlines at market close today

F&P Healthcare drags market lower

On the equities market front, healthcare manufacturer Fisher & Paykel Healthcare slumped 4.4% to $18.73 and traded the most volume across the index – almost $11m.

Interest rates rising at great rate ..... wonder what FPH valuation is if analysts used a 10% discount rate .....or even higher than 10%

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/markets/fp-healthcare-drags-market-lower

A real capital gut punch for investors, down 50% from Aug 2020 highs, now well below even the Covid flash crash panic. Technical support in the range $15-16.5. Only silver lining is four nice divies since last high, hopefully they continue.

[alokdhir]

Todays export data is average ...its down $ 20 mil PCP ...overall estimate is $ 125 Mil

That makes HY revenues estimates as $ 730+ Mil with NPAT estimates as $ 105-110 Mil

Seems better then guided but dont know where inflation will bite .....

[winner69]

FPH share price on fire on the ASX today

Bodes well for NZ tomorrow when we get back into action

[alokdhir]

Whats the Buzz on FPH ? Seems they have read my HY results update ...lol :p

[winner69]

Fph holding above 20 bucks / Ebo holding above 40 bucks

Bear market must be all over

Onwards and upwards

[Sideshow Bob]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/403204

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare announces results for the first half of the 2023 financial year

Auckland, New Zealand, 29 November 2022 - Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation Limited (NZX:FPH, ASX:FPH) today announced its results for the first half of the 2023 financial year.

For the six months ended 30 September 2022, total operating revenue was $690.6 million, above the $670 million guided by the company in its August trading update.
While revenue was down 23% on the first half of the prior year (or 27% in constant currency), this was a 21% increase on the comparable pre-pandemic period, being the first half of the 2020 financial year ($570.9 million). Net profit after tax for the first half was $95.9 million, a 57% decline from the prior comparable period, or a 65% decline in constant currency.

Managing Director and CEO Lewis Gradon said, “Consistent with what we signalled in August, first half revenue was down on the prior corresponding period as we lapped significant COVID-19-driven demand. Compared to pre-pandemic levels, this represents solid growth.”

In the Hospital product group, which includes humidification products used in respiratory, acute and surgical care, revenue for the first half was $438.7 million. This marks a decline of 35% on the prior comparable period, or 37% in constant currency. This represents an increase of 24% on the first half of the 2020 financial year. Of total Hospital product group revenue, 87% was from the sale of consumables and 13% was from the sale of hardware.

“Customer stock levels of hospital consumables continued to reflect purchases of considerable amounts during our prior half, in preparation for an Omicron hospitalisation wave which proved less severe than originally anticipated,” said Mr Gradon.

“Through the first half, there are positive signs that our hospital customers are working through their excess inventory holdings, and total group sales of our hospital consumables have increased sequentially on a month-by-month basis since May. This trend has continued in the second half to date.
“While we believe the number of hospitals which continue to be overstocked is declining, ultimately, these stocking dynamics are short term, and the fundamentals of our sales strategy remain the same. Our teams are committed to helping improve clinical practice and ensuring the hardware our customers have purchased during the pandemic is used to benefit a broader range of patients requiring respiratory support.”

In the Homecare product group, which includes products used in the treatment of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) and respiratory support in the home, revenue was $249.9 million, a 10% increase over the prior comparable period, or 4% in constant currency. OSA masks and accessories revenue increased 16% on the prior comparable period, or 10% in constant currency.

“It has been pleasing to see a strong reception for our new Evora Full mask, which we began selling into the United States in April following 510(k) approval,” said Mr Gradon. “Initial feedback from clinicians and end users has been positive, and this provides added momentum for our team working hard on a robust product pipeline.”
Gross margin was 59.8%, down from 63.1% in the prior period and below the company’s long-term target of 65%. Although global freight rates are seeing prices soften, legs in and out of New Zealand lag this trend, which continues to weigh on margin. The company has also been impacted by manufacturing inefficiencies, as it carefully balances demand fluctuations while managing manufacturing throughput and higher rates of sickness-related absenteeism in the manufacturing workforce.
The company reached a number of infrastructure milestones over the half to support continued growth. This includes the announcement in September that the company had entered into a conditional agreement to purchase a 105-hectare site for an additional campus in Karaka, Auckland. This acquisition is subject to Overseas Investment Office (OIO) approval, and the company expects a response from the agency in the first half of the 2023 calendar year.

The company’s directors have approved an increased interim dividend of 17.5 cents per share (H1 FY22: 17.0 cents per share). The interim dividend, carrying full New Zealand imputation credit, will be paid on 21 December 2022 with a record date of 9 December 2022.

The company is also reactivating its dividend reinvestment plan, as noted in an additional news release issued today, through which eligible shareholders can opt to invest all or part of their cash dividends in additional shares with an applicable discount of 3%. Details of this plan are available on the company website at www.fphcare.com/drp (http://www.fphcare.com/drp).

Looking ahead

“Our second half will be impacted by a number of factors, including:

• The rate of COVID-19 hospitalisations and the related intensity of respiratory support required;
• The severity and duration of a Northern Hemisphere flu season;
• The magnitude of RSV (respiratory syncytial virus) hospitalisation surges currently experienced in some regions; and
• The impact of ongoing hospital staffing challenges on the surgical procedure backlogs in many countries.
“Given these current uncertainties, we are not providing full-year quantitative revenue or earnings guidance at this time.

“However, we expect second half revenue for the 2023 financial year will be higher than in the first half.

“In our Hospital product group, pre-COVID-19 seasonal patterns have typically resulted in higher sales of hospital consumables in the second half compared to the first half. In the 2018 and 2019 financial years (being our most recent years that were unimpacted by COVID-19), our hospital consumable sales were 19% higher in constant currency during the second half compared to the first half. In addition, it is likely that a proportion of customers have worked through Omicron-driven consumables stock during our first half.

“In our Homecare product group, we believe the recent launch of our new Evora Full face mask, combined with improving global supply of CPAP hardware, will contribute to continued growth for the remainder of the year.

“Assuming current, slightly lower freight costs and reduced manufacturing inefficiencies, constant currency gross margin for the second half would improve from the first half by approximately 200 basis points,” said Mr Gradon.

The company is now targeting constant currency operating expense growth of approximately 8% for the full year.

“We remain committed to sustainable, profitable growth,” said Mr Gradon. “Our confidence in the future is unchanged, evidenced by the significant level of investment in new product development, our global sales force and our infrastructure.”

Overview of key results for the first half of the 2023 financial year
• 57% decline in net profit after tax to $95.9 million, 65% decline in constant currency.
• 23% decline in operating revenue to $690.6 million, 27% decline in constant currency.
• 35% decline in Hospital operating revenue to $438.7 million, 37% decline in constant currency.
• 23% decline in constant currency for new applications consumables (products used in noninvasive ventilation, Optiflow nasal high flow and surgical applications) accounting for 68% of Hospital consumables revenue.
• 10% growth in Homecare operating revenue, 4% growth in constant currency.
• Investment in R&D was 12% of revenue, or $84.2 million.
• 3% increase in interim dividend to 17.5 cps (H1 FY22: 17.0 cps).

About Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare is a leading designer, manufacturer and marketer of products and systems for use in acute and chronic respiratory care, surgery and the treatment of obstructive sleep apnea. The company’s products are sold in over 120 countries worldwide. For more information about the company, visit our website www.fphcare.com (http://www.fphcare.com).
Ends

[alokdhir]

Less then I expected but better then what FB and Jarden expected ...with increase in divvy ...seems OK results ...

[winner69]

Less then I expected but better then what FB and Jarden expected ...with increase in divvy ...seems OK results ...

Pretty solid though

Good 2nd half sales expected to be higher than first half

That Operating Cash Flow looks a bit sick .... negative if you include lease payments .... what's up alokdhir

[winner69]

Methinks market will respond favourably to report .... even if they will be pissed off with no guidance being given

[alokdhir]

Pretty solid though

Good 2nd half sales expected to be higher than first half

That Operating Cash Flow looks a bit sick .... negative if you include lease payments .... what's up alokdhir

Increase in Divvy and reinstating DRP are also bad signs on cashflow side ...but still balance sheet is Solid from past profits ...they shud be fine

Yes ...market maybe bit positive as a sign of relief ...cud have been much worse ...and this was supposed to be their worst half ...from now onwards it shud keep getting better every half ahead ...fingers crossed ...they shud open big office in China like ATM ...lol

Guidance of improving GP by 200 bps next half is the biggest positive ...normalisations of freight rates and reduced manufacturing inefficiencies to help

Homecare doing better then expected

Seems USA revenues were slower then usual maybe due to most overstocking their ?

[BlackPeter]

Pretty solid though

Good 2nd half sales expected to be higher than first half

That Operating Cash Flow looks a bit sick .... negative if you include lease payments .... what's up alokdhir


Less then I expected but better then what FB and Jarden expected ...with increase in divvy ...seems OK results ...


Methinks market will respond favourably to report .... even if they will be pissed off with no guidance being given

Without drawing a pretty chart (I am sure winner has already one in the sleeves) does it look to me as if FPH is now re revenue basically back on the trendline it used to be before the recent COVID peak. Wish I could say the same about earnings, currently this bit looks a bit stalling.

Solid company, solid (revenue) growth (if we remove the COVID peak), but still pretty dear PE.

I guess the big question is - will the price pendulum move from the "too dear" into the "fair priced" territory before it moves up again?

PE still around the 40 ... not really cheap, even with a (10 yr) backward earnings CAGR of 19 ... and certainly not with a 3 yr forward earnings CAGR of 5.5;

I am wondering whether FPH might do a Ryman on us for the next handful of years ...?

[alokdhir]

Without drawing a pretty chart (I am sure winner has already one in the sleeves) does it look to me as if FPH is now re revenue basically back on the trendline it used to be before the recent COVID peak. Wish I could say the same about earnings, currently this bit looks a bit stalling.

Solid company, solid (revenue) growth (if we remove the COVID peak), but still pretty dear PE.

I guess the big question is - will the price pendulum move from the "too dear" into the "fair priced" territory before it moves up again?

PE still around the 40 ... not really cheap, even with a (10 yr) backward earnings CAGR of 19 ... and certainly not with a 3 yr forward earnings CAGR of 5.5;

I am wondering whether FPH might do a Ryman on us for the next handful of years ...?

Expensive is compared to other industries maybe on vanilla P/E standards ...but if we see its peer industry group its just fine imo ...though surely looks pricey to all including me ...but not to long termers like pension funds and other big institutional investors ...they love such companies for their quality of earnings and consistency of revenues over a long term period .

RYM is basically property market play with high gearing ...which gave it a good run in rising market and now doing the otherwise in a downtrending property markets ...While FPH has strong balance sheet with positive cash reserves thus making it immune to higher rates ...totally opposite of RYM

Also RYM hardly has any moat while FPH has very high entry barriers and own R&D based IPs ...above all FPH is in totally different industry segment where industrywide P/Es are historically high for reasons known best to those big players who value them

RYM is coming down to match its peers as it had moved much away from the pack while FPH is still very much closer to its pack ...just having a difficult time adjusting after a very big meal ...can be easily seen as a company at bottom of its cycle thus at higher current P/E but has potential to grow 25% yearly ahead for next 3-5 years or so ....

[Rawz]

Holy smokes the SP up 12%

it must have been a good report

[alokdhir]

Holy smokes the SP up 12%

it must have been a good report

Your previous Sell price coming very soon ...looks like it's a rerating upwards this time ....It's been driven from Oz so seems big institutions liking the results or thinking worst is over ....fingers crossed :ohmy:

[limmy]

Your previous Sell price coming very soon ...looks like it's a rerating upwards this time ....It's been driven from Oz so seems big institutions liking the results or thinking worst is over ....fingers crossed :ohmy:

Big volumes traded from Oz

[Jaa]

Strange to me that in a period of record demand they have let their margins and earnings decline. I know this was a deliberate decision in 2020 but its two years on, inflation is rampant and still no sign of price increases? Maybe they are losing competitive position and thus pricing power to the likes of Resmed?

Also no idea why they are building a manufacturing facility in China when many other western companies are leaving. In Sounds like a good way to get their IP stolen and give birth to a new cut price Chinese competitor in international markets to me.

[kiora]

Strange to me that in a period of record demand they have let their margins and earnings decline. I know this was a deliberate decision in 2020 but its two years on, inflation is rampant and still no sign of price increases? Maybe they are losing competitive position and thus pricing power to the likes of Resmed?

Also no idea why they are building a manufacturing facility in China when many other western companies are leaving. In Sounds like a good way to get their IP stolen and give birth to a new cut price Chinese competitor in international markets to me.

News to me Jaa
Drury or China ???

[alokdhir]

News to me Jaa
Drury or China ???

They have taken a leased place for setting up additional assembly unit for diversification as per latest report . Maybe influenced by high cost of labour and difficult immigration policy of NZ . Will have 3 factories in Mexico , already operational , few in AKL and latest in Gounzhaou China . They surely are setting up for big boost to a diversified production base ...future planning

Ref page 42 of Investor presentation .

[Zaphod]

Also no idea why they are building a manufacturing facility in China when many other western companies are leaving. In Sounds like a good way to get their IP stolen and give birth to a new cut price Chinese competitor in international markets to me.

Add to that the ongoing disruption and internal political tensions as a result of the ongoing zero covid strategy, and you have some significant downside potential to building & fit-out of the facility as well as production. In the long-term things may be better, but in the short to medium term I can see why other companies are looking to other nations such as India to set up their manufacturing bases.

[BlackPeter]

...

Also no idea why they are building a manufacturing facility in China when many other western companies are leaving. In Sounds like a good way to get their IP stolen and give birth to a new cut price Chinese competitor in international markets to me.


They have taken a leased place for setting up additional assembly unit for diversification as per latest report . Maybe influenced by high cost of labour and difficult immigration policy of NZ . Will have 3 factories in Mexico , already operational , few in AKL and latest in Gounzhaou China . They surely are setting up for big boost to a diversified production base ...future planning

Ref page 42 of Investor presentation .

It is Guangzhou ... however - good point raised by Jaa!

While it sounds they want to produce there only for local markets - which might reduce some of the political risk ... the Chinese tend to pilfer IP quite openly. Adding to that all the other risks of investing money in an autocratic system without independent jurisdiction and high political tensions which is defending their continued genocide of some of their own people as internal affair and which is running a material risk of starting a war with Taiwan (and who knows where this might end?) ... I recon the economical benefits of such a factory must be amazing to cover the risks.

Just look at what happened with Western investments in Russia.

[winner69]

NZ and China on good terms

The other night Minister Mahuta raised glasses and toasted the China Ambassador celebrating 50 years of mutually beneficial partnership between the two countries.

there were 300 plus guests -- maybe a FPH man was one of them

Mustn't upset the China govt must we but then our Govt turn a blind eye to the bad things

[BlackPeter]

NZ and China on good terms

The other night Minister Mahuta raised glasses and toasted the China Ambassador celebrating 50 years of mutually beneficial partnership between the two countries.

there were 300 plus guests -- maybe a FPH man was one of them

True ... but then, things can change fast. Just look at how well Russia and Germany got along before Russia invaded Ukraine. What difference a day can make!

[kiora]

Less cage rattling by Chairman Xi lately?
A journey of 1000 miles begins with a single step? philosopher Lao Tzu
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/russia-ukraine-war-president-putin-backtracks-on-wild-threat-after-china-slight/3SOHYOQQ4ZDQ3LCCZOPBKSPD3E/

Carefully worded I say? Pg 10
"We also indicated that we were investigating
options for an additional offshore
manufacturing location, and we can now
report that we have entered into a lease
agreement for a facility in Guangzhou, China.
Our presence in the city dates back almost
20 years, where we have a well-entrenched
sales operation serving the mainland. The
new facility is aligned with our distributed
manufacturing strategy, and our intent is to
manufacture a select range of products to
service local markets."

[Jaa]

Add to that the ongoing disruption and internal political tensions as a result of the ongoing zero covid strategy, and you have some significant downside potential to building & fit-out of the facility as well as production. In the long-term things may be better, but in the short to medium term I can see why other companies are looking to other nations such as India to set up their manufacturing bases.

Yes, the short-term costs of setting up an operation in China must be astronomical at the moment, just look at Foxconn in Zhengzhou. Very difficult for foreigners to enter and live, long quarantine periods, expensive flights, random lockdowns that could affect the whole work site, longevity bonuses necessary to attract staff and rules constantly changing. Labour costs are also rising in China as their population ages and grows wealthier, especially in Quanzhou.

Great they are growing a market in China but why take the risk to manufacture there when FPH's most valuable asset is its IP? Who remembers the Lion brewery NZ built for the Chinese "domestic market", it did not go well. :eek2:

None of this even considers the nascent anti-CCP uprising underway in China. What will FPH with all their fancy sustainability awards and accreditations do when the CCP deploys tanks against its own people again?

It's a poor decision both morally and on a risk adjusted basis. The factory should be built in Vietnam, Thailand or Indonesia.

[winner69]

If marketscreener anything to go by analysts raised their profit expectations a bit after half year announcement

F23 forecast is 37 cents / share ,,,,jeez that puts FPH on a PE of 65 at the moment

Things go to lan F25 eps forecast is 67 cents

That at $24 is a PE of 35 .... but if fph maintains that 65 PE the share price would be nearly $44 in 2025

That's good ...something to look forward to

[Rawz]

If marketscreener anything to go by analysts raised their profit expectations a bit after half year announcement

F23 forecast is 37 cents / share ,,,,jeez that puts FPH on a PE of 65 at the moment

Things go to lan F25 eps forecast is 67 cents

That at $24 is a PE of 35 .... but if fph maintains that 65 PE the share price would be nearly $44 in 2025

That's good ...something to look forward to

65 p/e unwarranted. too much risk.. if they underperform the re-rate down would be brutal. sad for my kiwisaver which probably holds a decent FPH stake. ah well, the guru fund managers know what they are doing

[percy]

An Australian's view.
https://stockhead.cmail19.com/t/d-l-zjthtut-yupddjlly-p/

[peat]

An Australian's view.
https://stockhead.cmail19.com/t/d-l-zjthtut-yupddjlly-p/

good summary and update , he doesnt really make a call on it tho, and after reading that article I would probably look at what he states is the cheaper alternative Resmed.

14367

Tho it kind of looks like one would be buying better relative value with FPH from looking at their charts compared. FPH has always been very highly valued on a PE basis. is that reset permanent?

[winner69]

Alokdhir …how did November merchandise export data look …..Or has your model run it’s course. ..done its job as the market sees the decline over and the FPH share price heading to 30 bucks

[alokdhir]

Alokdhir …how did November merchandise export data look …..Or has your model run it’s course. ..done its job as the market sees the decline over and the FPH share price heading to 30 bucks

As its based on NZ exports data only thus its reliability varies a bit these days due to Mexico supplies which are mostly consumables for US market ...still I am tracking ...todays data showed almost similar results as in Nov 2021 ...so maybe overstocking will soon become restocking ...Nov 22 estimates are $ 130 mil

On side note I noticed that 35% of dividends got DRP shares ...thus company saved $ 35.5 Mil of cash ...thus improving its cashflow which U were concerned about earlier ...whole year with DRP they may end up saving $ 100 mil of cash


PS : I am waiting to see any Broker puts FPH in next year's picks ...maybe then $ 30 by next year on horizon :p

[winner69]

Was reading an article about Tesla and the end of the golden age of growth

Nothing to do with FPH but the word growth piqued my interest ….anyway I notice that over the last 2 years the FPH share price has outperformed the TSLA share price …that’s cool

[alokdhir]

Was reading an article about Tesla and the end of the golden age of growth

Nothing to do with FPH but the word growth piqued my interest ….anyway I notice that over the last 2 years the FPH share price has outperformed the TSLA share price …that’s cool

I was waiting when U will come to FPH thread ..lol ...People didnt notice that its in an uptrend based on Mr B's requirements ...ie SP over 30 DSMA and 30DSMA over 60 DSMA ...its risen almost 30% from bottom of 18.02 etc etc but no one is singing its praise or SP ...main reason its not retail favourite only big institutions buy and hold it for longer term

Why retail doesn't like it as its P/E is very hard to swallow ...even me who holds it in my super long term portfolio do not know how to justify its high multiples

Maybe we need have a discussion about it here to try to understand the logic of big institutions who decide its high multiples

But since the time ASX became positive on it compared to NZX ...it has been rising steadily ...fingers crossed

Most bullish eps estimates are FY23 is 45 cents , 60 cents FY24 and 80 Cents FY 25 ....with lots of ifs and buts

[alokdhir]

Whats the buzz about FPH ? Anyone knows what people saying which is suddenly making it so loveable ?

Any chance of China Govt taking it over for managing future covid problems ?? :p

[iceman]

Whats the buzz about FPH ? Anyone knows what people saying which is suddenly making it so loveable ?

Any chance of China Govt taking it over for managing future covid problems ?? :p

It's all gone strangely quiet on this one for a long time !! A lot less barking than there was last year.

[Rawz]

when is this going to $14?

[winner69]

when is this going to $14?

One day .... be patient .... maybe a bit of dollar cost averaging a good plan

[Rawz]

One day .... be patient .... maybe a bit of dollar cost averaging a good plan

No money left, its all in IKE.

"Go big or go home"

Thats what couta use to say. he was right about FPH. Be at $50 soon

[alokdhir]

One day .... be patient .... maybe a bit of dollar cost averaging a good plan

Current results and even little better guidance of improving margins etc , big flu season and some return of covid ...all these still not explain this rampant move

W69 always knows the buzz on the street ...even AFR reporters get info from him ...

Tell us mate what makes those Aussie institutions to buy it over $ 25 ...something special or just over exuberance again ??

Is it the voting vs weighing phenomena ? Fisher funds must be jumping with joy !!!

[alokdhir]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/405576

This shud help it move higher ....Seems we can eventually get 50 Cents eps for the FY ...way over 37 cents consensus

Another long term plus for the FPH is market realising Covid is here to stay rather then one off benefit !

[winner69]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/405576

This shud help it move higher ....Seems we can eventually get 50 Cents eps for the FY ...way over 37 cents consensus

Good one eh alokdhir

Maybe not quite your eps of 50 cents but at least 45 cents ....could say a 20% upgrade in earnings expectations ....that's pretty cool

which makes share price a bit more respectable .... only on a PE of 55 now ....but that's going to go up again today lol

When will we get to 30 bucks you reckon

[alokdhir]

Good one eh alokdhir

Maybe not quite your eps of 50 cents but at least 45 cents ....could say a 20% upgrade in earnings expectations ....that's pretty cool

which makes share price a bit more respectable .... only on a PE of 55 now ....but that's going to go up again today lol

When will we get to 30 bucks you reckon

As per me not soon ...maybe in 2024 end ...lol ...as u keep pointing to how expensive it is ...:p

[winner69]

Big headline on BusinessDesk …didn’t bother read the article


Fisher & Paykel Healthcare says FY operating revenue to dip

[alokdhir]

Big headline on BusinessDesk …didn’t bother read the article


Fisher & Paykel Healthcare says FY operating revenue to dip

Thats why its up 5% ...lol

[winner69]

So revenues going to be $1.6 billion for FY23

That means second half revenues will be 16% up on pcp

16% pretty good - all back on track

hat's why share price up 5%

[winner69]

even the the much respected and so called leading business news outlet is a bit glum

FPH’s guidance for 2023 falls short of 2022 result

[alokdhir]

even the the much respected and so called leading business news outlet is a bit glum

FPH’s guidance for 2023 falls short of 2022 result

We thought we only have downrampers here only ...media standards low or competence or knowledge or skills ....:eek2:

[winner69]

We thought we only have downrampers here only ...media standards low or competence or knowledge or skills ....:eek2:

No mate - the bad news = share price up theory

[alokdhir]

No mate - the bad news = share price up theory

Ok as u say ...after all u r real winner !! :p

[alokdhir]

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/2023/01/covid-19-china-records-biggest-weekly-rise-in-hospitalisations-since-pandemic-began-world-health-organization.html

China will help it propel towards $ 27 or higher !!

[alokdhir]

" Craigs latest

Further FY23e upgrades look likely
FPH tends to be conservative when it provides guidance, and particularly in
an environment of extreme volatility in demand such as at present. Friday's
guidance seems no exception, and appears to assume a sharp fall off in
demand from all three drivers noted above over the next two months. While
directionally this view is supported by the most recent data, guidance may
prove to be too conservative, particularly with respect to margins. While FPH
has guided to flat gross margins HoH, we would normally expect gross
margin to expand on the back of the 24-32% HoH lift in revenue the company
has guided to. We therefore lift our FY23e revenue estimate to $1.62bn, and
NPAT to $288m (i.e. 2% and 6% above the top end of guidance, respectively).
Target price +18%, upgrade to Neutral
Friday's upgrade brings forward the previously expected recovery in demand
by about a year, which all else equal drives up our DCF-driven valuation by
9%. In addition, the recent sharp fall in US 10-year bond yields (from 4.0% in
November to 3.5% now) drives up our DCF valuation a further 9%, and overall
our target price increases 18% to $25.78. With FPH shares trading in line with
our revised target price, and 44x fwd earnings, we upgrade to Neutral."

Upgrades already started ...FPH recovering faster then expected is the main theme helped by " Covid is here to stay " long term benefit ...Huge inroads in big and wealthy Chinese market during current wave will help long term too ...adding a big market long term basis

[alokdhir]

Good one eh alokdhir

Maybe not quite your eps of 50 cents but at least 45 cents ....could say a 20% upgrade in earnings expectations ....that's pretty cool

which makes share price a bit more respectable .... only on a PE of 55 now ....but that's going to go up again today lol

When will we get to 30 bucks you reckon

Craigs think EPS will be little over 50 Cents mate so another 10% upgrade in SP on results day ...advance notice !! :t_up:

[winner69]

Anything exciting in Stats NZ export data alokdhir

Hopefuly looking good for FPH

[alokdhir]

Anything exciting in Stats NZ export data alokdhir

Hopefuly looking good for FPH

Its marginally better then last two months ...but that we already know from revenue update provided ...thats why its become much easier to anticipate upcoming full year results ...Craigs have done the number crunching in coming to $ 1620 mil revenue and $ 288 mil NP ...which is 10% higher then what market has in mind at present ...I think 50 Cents EPS this year is possible on back of China boost ...but before u highlight ...I say myself ...what about next year ? lol

[alokdhir]

W69 ...whats happening on FPH counter ? Why the buying is so relentless ? Just took support at first level of $ 25 ...and now trying to cross $ 27 !!

Who u think is buying ? and why they so positive suddenly ...after all 44 forward earnings is surely not cheap mate ???

Beats me as my internal year end target was just $ 27 and its almost here

[winner69]

W69 ...whats happening on FPH counter ? Why the buying is so relentless ? Just took support at first level of $ 25 ...and now trying to cross $ 27 !!

Who u think is buying ? and why they so positive suddenly ...after all 44 forward earnings is surely not cheap mate ???

Beats me as my internal year end target was just $ 27 and its almost here

Punters love blue chips and growth blue chips even more ……and the world isn’t coming to an end so all hunky dory.

And they expect record margins and for them to be maintained and expect PE to remain high

Why wouldn’t one not pile into FPH these days


and it was once $36 so still cheap as

[alokdhir]

Punters love blue chips and growth blue chips even more ……and the world isn’t coming to an end so all hunky dory.

And they expect record margins and for them to be maintained and expect PE to remain high

Why wouldn’t one not pile into FPH these days


and it was once $36 so still cheap as

It's not punter buying ...they do smaller stocks ...it's more like Pinnacle kind of funds who buy like this ...they sold also like that ...lol ....funny how they. U turned in just few months ....what they thought company is closing when it was $ 18 with no buyers ...now no one is selling ...just takes 250K buying to push 5% up

[winner69]

It's not punter buying ...they do smaller stocks ...it's more like Pinnacle kind of funds who buy like this ...they sold also like that ...lol ....funny how they. U turned in just few months ....what they thought company is closing when it was $ 18 with no buyers ...now no one is selling ...just takes 250K buying to push 5% up


Pinnacle are punters as well …it’s easy to punt when you punting with others money

[winner69]

It's not punter buying ...they do smaller stocks ...it's more like Pinnacle kind of funds who buy like this ...they sold also like that ...lol ....funny how they. U turned in just few months ....what they thought company is closing when it was $ 18 with no buyers ...now no one is selling ...just takes 250K buying to push 5% up

Recall Price = Fundamental Value +/- Hype

A while ago When price was $19 it was FV of $13 plus $6 HPYE

Now Price $26 it’s FV $15 plus $11 HYPE

Seems HYPE increases faster than FV

Cool eh

[alokdhir]

Pinnacle are punters as well …it’s easy to punt when you punting with others money

OK ...Punters with big money then ...But they punted right ...bought lots on the way down near $ 20 levels ....it's easier to get huge vols when people rushing to sell ...now they already up 30% of big big investment ....someone there must be smiling a lot these days ...including at Fisher funds ....there goes another lesson....never buy in an confirmed downtrend ....:p

[alokdhir]

Recall Price = Fundamental Value +/- Hype

A while ago When price was $19 it was FV of $15 plus $4 HPYE

Now Price $26 it’s FV $17 plus $9 HYPE

Seems HYPE increases faster than FV

Cool eh

HYPE is the perceived future value ....it shud have been highest when SP was $ 18 if Warren Buffet was looking at it ....but jumping on a fast momentum train is also advised by TA ...maybe here TA helps the most

[Rawz]

50day broke through the 200day last week. thats good.

too bad this is just a sucker rally and sp be below $20 soon

[alokdhir]

50day broke through the 200day last week. thats good.

too bad this is just a sucker rally and sp be below $20 soon

May be not that big sucker rally ...but $ 22 types possible if overall market sentiment tanks ...hype value contracts again ....I am not at all bullish on FPH at current levels ...


PS : But keep in mind FY results end May are market beating ...so again another so called " Sucker " rally to play

[winner69]

The rally in cryptocurrencies and FPH going great guns as well suggests speculation rather than true economic or profit fundamentals is back in vogue

[alokdhir]

The rally in cryptocurrencies and FPH going great guns as well suggests speculation rather than true economic or profit fundamentals is back in vogue

W69 not happy FPH still very buoyant against his calculations ...while HGH / SUM /HLG / TRA / FBU / STU etc not loved inspite of having much better looking financials ...fails me too but ....comparing FPH with crypto is real winner ...lol

EBO is also a BIG sell at Morningstar with valuation of $ 32 only ....but will end up at $ 60 ...so there goes basing current valuations on currently available data ...ie maybe market knows something about FPH which we dont know yet !!! When it is revealed then maybe FPH may look fairly priced ...

[percy]

W69 not happy FPH still very buoyant against his calculations ...while HGH / SUM /HLG / TRA / FBU / STU etc not loved inspite of having much better looking financials ...fails me too but ....comparing FPH with crypto is real winner ...lol

EBO is also a BIG sell at Morningstar with valuation of $ 32 only ....but will end up at $ 60 ...so there goes basing current valuations on currently available data ...ie maybe market knows something about FPH which we dont know yet !!! When it is revealed then maybe FPH may look fairly priced ...

All makes you realize you are best to back your own research.

[alokdhir]

All makes you realize you are best to back your own research.

Wish we were all so financial number literates like u mate ...U sure have great skills in identifying hidden gems ...thats why u have FPH in portfolio ...:p

[percy]

Wish we were all so financial number literates like u mate ...U sure have great skills in identifying hidden gems ...thats why u have FPH in portfolio ...:p

No, however the trust I am a trustee does.
Yes I still make mistakes.The trick is waking up to them quickly.
Remember a GOOD company can have a POOR year, and a POOR company can have a GOOD year.
Telling the difference takes learning.
Anyone who follows the share market is ALWAYS learning.

[winner69]

Hey alokdhir does latest export data reveal much re FPH?

Or I’d doing any estimate of future prospects a waste of time because the market has reverted to let’s forget fundamentals and just come up with what looks right as a share price.

I’d have a guess if Gradon got asked again whether he’d buy a similar company on a PE of 60 odd he say what he said last time ‘no way’

[alokdhir]

Hey alokdhir does latest export data reveal much re FPH?

Or I’d doing any estimate of future prospects a waste of time because the market has reverted to let’s forget fundamentals and just come up with what looks right as a share price.

I’d have a guess if Gradon got asked again whether he’d buy a similar company on a PE of 60 odd he say what he said last time ‘no way’

Feb exports data is almost same as last year level ...only down 2% YOY for feb ...so nothing worth getting excited about

I will agree with u that market sentiment for FPH has now become overly bullish ....maybe function of previous overly negative tone

Only way to justify current levels is FPH is recession proof business and we are surely getting into recession if not already in....

[mike2020]

FFs are bullish on FPH, I was at a roadshow last week.

[limmy]

What does FFs mean ?

[clip]

Fisher Funds probably

[limmy]

Fisher Funds probably
Thank you, Clip.

[winner69]

Jeez the worlds gone mad ….FPH over 27 bucks

Hit my sell price so all gone

So guys it must be a good time to start buying FPH …..probably reach new highs now

[Rawz]

Jeez the worlds gone mad ….FPH over 27 bucks

Hit my sell price so all gone

So guys it must be a good time to start buying

Any targets on the radar for the allocation of funds?

[limmy]

I suppose the target will depend on their soon to release results announcement.

[alokdhir]

Jeez the worlds gone mad ….FPH over 27 bucks

Hit my sell price so all gone

So guys it must be a good time to start buying FPH …..probably reach new highs now

Me too ...exactly the same ...all gone ...now only KFL and MFT ....beats me too why FPH so buoyant ...results is max 50 Cents eps ....next year guidance is the buzz which maybe 20-25 % growth in next 2-5 years ...maybe that what getting market excited

[winner69]

Well over 27 bucks now

BP kept telling me the old saying in letting the winners keep winning but I didn’t listen

Amazing

[Habits]

Any targets on the radar for the allocation of funds?

W69 will let you know AFTER he's locked and loaded

[Rawz]

W69 will let you know AFTER he's locked and loaded

true.. i forget the sums W69 deals with moves the market :eek2:

[IAK]

Some rumblings at FPH? https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/business-of-health/the-fisher-paykel-way-no-regular-workplace

[alokdhir]

Looks like someone got left out of this uptrend and they want another chance ...maybe Mr B ....lol

[alokdhir]

March exports data showed 15% increase on last March exports ....

Overall FPH on track to report little better then expected revenues but still its fully priced imo

We may have run too much too soon ...results may lead to disappointment ...

[limmy]

Result expected tomorrow, 26th May

[alokdhir]

Results are pretty much well forecast ...outlook ahead will be key ...Easy to disappoint but now SP has corrected from heady $ 28 levels ...

Fingers crossed :cool:

[alokdhir]

Guidance resumes ...Growth resumes ...Good for stock

[Rawz]

Guidance resumes ...Growth resumes ...Good for stock

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/412082

Overview of key results for the second half of the 2023 financial year
• 14% growth in operating revenue to $890.5 million, 12% growth in constant currency.
• Net profit after tax of $154.4 million, a decline of 0.5% or 3% in constant currency.
• 9% growth in Hospital operating revenue to $584.8 million, 7% growth in constant currency.
• 13% constant currency revenue growth for new applications consumables; i.e. products used in noninvasive ventilation, Optiflow nasal high flow therapy and surgical applications, accounting for 72% of Hospital consumables revenue.
• 25% growth in Homecare operating revenue to $303.9 million, 22% growth in constant currency.
• 28% growth in OSA masks revenue, or 24% growth in constant currency.

Overview of key results for the 2023 financial year
• 34% decline in net profit after tax to $250.3 million, 39% decline in constant currency.
• 6% decline in operating revenue to $1.58 billion, 9% decline in constant currency.
• 15% decline in Hospital operating revenue to $1.02 billion, 18% decline in constant currency.
• 6% constant currency revenue decline for new applications consumables.
• 18% growth in Homecare operating revenue to $553.8 million, 13% growth in constant currency.
• Investment in R&D was 11% of revenue, or $174.3 million.
• 2% increase in final dividend to 23.0 cps (2022: 22.5 cps).
• 3% increase in total dividends for the financial year to 40.5 cps (2022: 39.5 cps).

[winner69]

Guidance resumes ...Growth resumes ...Good for stock

Single digit revenue growth expected ….. trading on a PE of 60 ….hmmmmm

[Ggcc]

Single digit revenue growth expected ….. trading on a PE of 60 ….hmmmmm
For longterm holders it will only rise over time and this is just a short term blip, but for traders a song by Kaleo comes to mind. “Way down we go” of course I could be wrong….

[BlackPeter]

Single digit revenue growth expected ….. trading on a PE of 60 ….hmmmmm

Hey - look at it from the bright side ... they basically return all their earnings as dividends back to the shareholders and they even fully impute them! ... FPH is now a dividend stock with an amazing yield of 1.5%!

Clearly, this makes it worthwhile to wait 60 years to get the principal back ...

But don't misunderstand me - it is an amazing company, but yes, sometimes one wonders which premiums the market is prepared to pay hoping for unprecedented future growth. Maybe the markets want to tell us something about the rise of Covid 24?

[Valuegrowth]

Hey - look at it from the bright side ... they basically return all their earnings as dividends back to the shareholders and they even fully impute them! ... FPH is now a dividend stock with an amazing yield of 1.5%!

Clearly, this makes it worthwhile to wait 60 years to get the principal back ...

But don't misunderstand me - it is an amazing company, but yes, sometimes one wonders which premiums the market is prepared to pay hoping for unprecedented future growth. Maybe the markets want to tell us something about the rise of Covid 24?

This analysis is very important to me. Something to think about when buying stocks. I got the idea.

[Filthy]

Maybe the markets want to tell us something about the rise of Covid 24?

well this bit of the ann. did make me chuckle a little - [Outlook for the 2024 financial year: At current exchange rates*, guidance assumptions for the 2024 financial year include no significant respiratory disease events]

down ~6% at open. not surprising really.

[kiora]

Looking to invest for growth and achieving some noticeable improvements in homecare
"Homecare product group revenue for the full year was a record $553.8 million, 18% higher than the
previous year, and 13% higher in constant currency. The company saw strong growth in masks and
accessories revenue, which in constant currency was up 17% for the full year, and up 24% for the
second half.
“Our Evora Full mask for OSA launched in the United States in May 2022 and contributed
significantly to the strong OSA masks revenue. It’s one of the most positive new mask launches we
have ever experienced based on customer feedback and initial sales performance in the regions
where it is available,” said Mr Gradon".

[winner69]

Huge recovery from $23.00

Good sign

[alokdhir]

Huge recovery from $23.00

Good sign

W69 is happy ...like me ...selling all over $ 27 ...that was surely over exuberance ...now shud settle in $ 22-$ 25 range ...imo

[Jaa]

..........

[Jaa]

In the fullness of time one is left to ponder wonder COVID really benefited the company...

They worked themselves hard, no doubt losing focus on long term growth, absorbed major cost increases, bought $275m of NZ land at the peak and didn't raise their prices. Gross margin is down from 67% in 1H20 to 59% in FY23. Why will customers accept price increases now?

Share price is back where it was in Jan 2020.

More-work, less-profit?

[alokdhir]

In the fullness of time one is left to ponder wonder COVID really benefited the company...

They worked themselves hard, no doubt losing focus on long term growth, absorbed major cost increases, bought $275m of NZ land at the peak and didn't raise their prices. Gross margin is down from 67% in 1H20 to 59% in FY23. Why will customers accept price increases now?

Share price is back where it was in Jan 2020.

More-work, less-profit?

I had thought on those lines ...and I also came to same conclusion that SP wud have been better today if Covid had not happened ...

PS : But maybe thats too short term thinking of ours ...now SP maybe better in 5 years then what it wud have been if covid not happened ...yes today SP it didnt help but 5 years hence SP may help a lot ...hopefully as thats what company saying why they did all this hardwork etc

[Rawz]

I was thinking the same way with the global chip shortage and RAK. It has really messed with the SP. However with the bumper profits and cash generated they paid for a new manufacturing facility in India and cleaned up the balance sheet.

I suspect the same for FPH. The extra cash will surely accelerate the long term profit generation because of extra investment?

[Valuegrowth]

One company which benefitted from covid-19. Their performance depends on their future demand and earnings. This also a kind of covid winner.

[kiora]

I was thinking the same way with the global chip shortage and RAK. It has really messed with the SP. However with the bumper profits and cash generated they paid for a new manufacturing facility in India and cleaned up the balance sheet.

I suspect the same for FPH. The extra cash will surely accelerate the long term profit generation because of extra investment?

Yep that's how I see it
Using Covid super profits to invest in the long term growth
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/FISHER-PAYKEL-HEALTHCAR-6492630/

[limmy]

More hospitals (and perhaps even new markets or regions) would have FPH products because of Covid. This must count for something ?

[Valuegrowth]

This 20 baggar stock was trading around 1.26 nzd in 2000.After 20 year long period its share prices reached around $ 35. It was one of the active stocks in the market during period of covid-19. Curently it is trading around $23. Curent PE ratio is 55.

[Muse]

This 20 baggar stock was trading around 1.26 nzd in 2000.After 20 year long period its share prices reached around $ 35. It was one of the active stocks in the market during period of covid-19. Curently it is trading around $23. Curent PE ratio is 55.

Just wanted to say - if this is an AI - we humans come in peace.

[bull....]

Fisher & Paykel net profit slumps 34pc


Respirator manufacturer Fisher & Paykel Healthcare’s net profit collapsed over the quarter, missing market expectations and driving the share price down almost 6 per cent.

https://www.afr.com/companies/healthcare-and-fitness/fisher-and-paykel-net-profit-slumps-34pc-20230526-p5dbk0

[winner69]

Fisher & Paykel net profit slumps 34pc


Respirator manufacturer Fisher & Paykel Healthcare’s net profit collapsed over the quarter, missing market expectations and driving the share price down almost 6 per cent.

https://www.afr.com/companies/healthcare-and-fitness/fisher-and-paykel-net-profit-slumps-34pc-20230526-p5dbk0


Jeez … was last quarter so bad that net profit collapsed

Hope this quarter is better

[winner69]

NZD:usd collapsing into the 50’s

That should help FPH future results as they said $1.7 billion revenues guidance based on 63 …makes 1.7 close to 1.8 just like that

[winner69]

Wonder how far down FPH share price will fall this time around

Down 14% from recent highs of 27.95

Maybe back to 20 bucks?

[Valuegrowth]

It depends on the following three.
1.Fundemental factors
2.Technical factors and
3.Market sentiment.

[bull....]

Wonder how far down FPH share price will fall this time around

Down 14% from recent highs of 27.95

Maybe back to 20 bucks?

some spooky technicals

price topped out just below 28 which is the 50% retracement from 37.50 odd highs to the 18.4 odd low in oct
and the move down recently rebounded at the 50% retracement of the move from 28 to the recent announcement low of just over 23


spooky these invisible levels in the market

[limmy]

The NZD vs USD rate usually affects their profitability

[Valuegrowth]

Yes. Knowledge of the curency market is very important.
The NZD vs USD rate usually affects their profitability

[BlackPeter]

Wonder how far down FPH share price will fall this time around

Down 14% from recent highs of 27.95

Maybe back to 20 bucks?

Good question. My "fair value" would be around $16 ... but admittedly, FPH is one of these companies which are rarely available at fair value.

[winner69]

Talk cash conversion rates on DGL thread

FPH cash conversion rate for years was around 0.8 but last 2 years it has been around 0.5 so not turning as much profit into operating cash as they used to

Generally not a good sign

[kiora]

SP follows earnings
"Sustainably DOUBLING our constant currency revenue every 5-6 years."

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/FPH/413297/396795.pdf

New applications
Noninvasive Ventilation
Anesthesia
Hospital Respiratory Support
Infant Care Anesthesia

Accelerated R & D
People in R&D 581 in 2019 & 846 in 2023

Increased R& D as % of revenue ,9% in 2019 to 11% in 2023
Surgical

[ronaldson]

NZSA Auckland Branch members were hosted earlier today at FPH's Highbrook premises. Realistic but basically upbeat presentation, followed by a guided walkaround of the Daniel Building (one of four on site, with earthworks for a fifth substantially complete). Thanks to Fiona Gray for organising the visit, and to the FPH representatives present on that occasion. These company visits are a worthwhile feature of NZSA membership and are great value education for holders and non-holders alike.

[BlackPeter]

NZSA Auckland Branch members were hosted earlier today at FPH's Highbrook premises. Realistic but basically upbeat presentation, followed by a guided walkaround of the Daniel Building (one of four on site, with earthworks for a fifth substantially complete). Thanks to Fiona Gray for organising the visit, and to the FPH representatives present on that occasion. These company visits are a worthwhile feature of NZSA membership and are great value education for holders and non-holders alike.

Cheers for the update. Wondering though, whether you could expand a bit on "realistic but basically upbeat"?

Obviously - they won't communicate for such opportunities anything which hasn't been disclosed before, but sometimes their body language and even any "I can't possibly comment on ... " might help to better interpret what has been said.

Out of curiosity - who from FPH was giving the presentation?

What is (after this visit) your feeling for the further drop from Covid heights?

Did they talk about their expectations how things continue mid term - back to the pre-Covid growth path or are there still additional marketing opportunities?

Any new products on the horizon?

[winner69]

If you lived on Mars, would you invest in F&P Healthcare?

Article in BusinessDesk

I’ll read it to see the answer

[winner69]

If you lived on Mars, would you invest in F&P Healthcare?

Article in BusinessDesk

I’ll read it to see the answer

Doesn’t actually say but I think the answer is no….article all about asset allocation

Makes one point -
The problem we have is that our fund management industry is attracting more capital, thanks to a hugely successful KiwiSaver scheme, and as it compounds, there's more money chasing these market darlings. (EBO, FPH, MFT, IFT etc) means most of these shares are arguably somewhat overpriced.

Actually written by a guy from Hobson Wealth …read it free here

https://www.hobsonwealth.co.nz/if-you-lived-on-mars-would-you-invest-in-fp-healthcare/

[kiora]

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/hyperion-s-top-small-cap-picks-for-high-quality-earnings-in-a-slowing-economy?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Trending%20on%20Livewire%20-%20Monday%2024%20July%202023&utm_content=Trending%20on%20Livewire%20-%20Monday%2024%20July%202023+CID_982515869a6af36b4 e1d6f55928b6c11&utm_source=campaign%20monitor&utm_term=READ%20MORE

"Fisher & Paykel - 10.9%

Fisher & Paykel has built multiple sustainable competitive advantages in the high-flow therapy market with its Optiflow product. These include:

Higher humidified flow rates than competitors. This allows gas in a patient's lungs to be removed and replaced with oxygen faster, therefore accelerating recovery. The tubing technology also provides better condensation management.
The generation of substantial clinical evidence using Optiflow.
An established, reputable brand, particularly in hospital ICUs.
High barriers to entry in the industry. It takes years to replicate the technology, and Fisher & Paykel continue to invest significantly in R&D which comprises a high single-digit proportion of their revenue. There is also incumbency with already installed devices."

[winner69]

NZD falling (pretty fast)

FPH share price falling (26 week low)

I was told weakening nzd good for FPH

[Felonius]

Doesn’t actually say but I think the answer is no….article all about asset allocation

Makes one point -
The problem we have is that our fund management industry is attracting more capital, thanks to a hugely successful KiwiSaver scheme, and as it compounds, there's more money chasing these market darlings. (EBO, FPH, MFT, IFT etc) means most of these shares are arguably somewhat overpriced.

Actually written by a guy from Hobson Wealth …read it free here

https://www.hobsonwealth.co.nz/if-you-lived-on-mars-would-you-invest-in-fp-healthcare/

Thank you Winner - that was a marvellous article.
It rattled the old brain cells a bit and got me seriuosly rethinking our strategy.

[Joshuatree]

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/hyperion-s-top-small-cap-picks-for-high-quality-earnings-in-a-slowing-economy?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Trending%20on%20Livewire%20-%20Monday%2024%20July%202023&utm_content=Trending%20on%20Livewire%20-%20Monday%2024%20July%202023+CID_982515869a6af36b4 e1d6f55928b6c11&utm_source=campaign%20monitor&utm_term=READ%20MORE

"Fisher & Paykel - 10.9%

Fisher & Paykel has built multiple sustainable competitive advantages in the high-flow therapy market with its Optiflow product. These include:

Higher humidified flow rates than competitors. This allows gas in a patient's lungs to be removed and replaced with oxygen faster, therefore accelerating recovery. The tubing technology also provides better condensation management.
The generation of substantial clinical evidence using Optiflow.
An established, reputable brand, particularly in hospital ICUs.
High barriers to entry in the industry. It takes years to replicate the technology, and Fisher & Paykel continue to invest significantly in R&D which comprises a high single-digit proportion of their revenue. There is also incumbency with already installed devices."

..."Pharmaceutical Eli Lilly announced a fast-tracked trial for its successful obesity drug, tirzepatide, specifically targeting the CPAP market."....

[bull....]

quite a few big asx healthcare stocks being pummelled after results due to margin squeeze ..... be surprised if fph is not affected similarly

[Sideshow Bob]

quite a few big asx healthcare stocks being pummelled after results due to margin squeeze ..... be surprised if fph is not affected similarly

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/417250

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare provides guidance for first half of FY24

Auckland, New Zealand, 29 August 2023 – Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation Limited today provided earnings guidance for the first half of the 2024 financial year, which ends 30 September 2023.

At 31 July exchange rates*, and assuming a continuation of trading conditions in the first four months, the company expects operating revenue for the first half to be approximately $790 million, and net profit after tax within the range of approximately $95 million to $105 million.

This would represent approximately 14% growth in revenue on the first half of the previous financial year. Trading to date indicates no material change to the full year revenue guidance of approximately $1.70 billion, which the company provided in May.

Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer Lewis Gradon said, “For the first four months of the 2024 financial year, revenue from OSA masks was stronger, and revenue from hospital hardware was marginally lower, than assumed. Constant currency group revenue and operating expense results to date remain consistent with the full year guidance we provided in May, with gross margin improvement approaching 200 basis points in constant currency for the full year.

“As we said in May, this year we have returned to executing on continuous improvement initiatives across the business. During the pandemic we had a responsibility to get as much product as possible into the hands of our customers. Now, we have moved away from that supply-at-all-costs mentality, and we are once again focused on operational efficiency. We expect to see positive financial impacts building through the year,” continued Mr Gradon.

Milestones and achievements

Over the past 12 months, Fisher & Paykel Healthcare has reached some significant milestones supporting its long-term growth strategy. The company acquired land in Karaka for a second New Zealand campus, opened a third building in Tijuana, Mexico, and began fitting out a new manufacturing facility in China.

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare increased the size of its sales force, brought forward future research and development projects, and launched its Evora Full face mask for obstructive sleep apnea. It recently received FDA clearance for the F&P 950 humidification system and Airvo 3 high flow therapy device, expanding the market for those products into the United States.

“We have some great long-term opportunities ahead of us in hospital and home respiratory therapies, surgical and anesthesia applications, and treatments for obstructive sleep apnea. In recent years our products have been used to treat approximately 20 million patients per year, and the market for our products is more than 10 times that. We are confident that we can facilitate changes in clinical practice and reach those underpenetrated markets,” concluded Mr Gradon.

Annual Shareholders’ Meeting 2023

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare has provided speeches and slide presentations for the 2023 Annual Shareholders’ Meeting to the NZX and ASX today. The meeting will begin today at 2:00pm NZST, 12:00pm AEST (10:00pm USEDT) and will be broadcast simultaneously over the internet. To participate go to: http://www.virtualmeeting.co.nz/fph23.
*Referenced 31 July 2023 exchange rates of NZD:USD 0.62, NZD:EUR 0.56, NZD:MXN 10.35.

[winner69]

NPAT H1 95m to 105m ….last year 96m so slightly ahead …but last year H1 was a shocker

No doubt market will be relieved and share price will shoot up

[bull....]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/417250

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare provides guidance for first half of FY24

Auckland, New Zealand, 29 August 2023 – Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation Limited today provided earnings guidance for the first half of the 2024 financial year, which ends 30 September 2023.

At 31 July exchange rates*, and assuming a continuation of trading conditions in the first four months, the company expects operating revenue for the first half to be approximately $790 million, and net profit after tax within the range of approximately $95 million to $105 million.

This would represent approximately 14% growth in revenue on the first half of the previous financial year. Trading to date indicates no material change to the full year revenue guidance of approximately $1.70 billion, which the company provided in May.

Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer Lewis Gradon said, “For the first four months of the 2024 financial year, revenue from OSA masks was stronger, and revenue from hospital hardware was marginally lower, than assumed. Constant currency group revenue and operating expense results to date remain consistent with the full year guidance we provided in May, with gross margin improvement approaching 200 basis points in constant currency for the full year.

“As we said in May, this year we have returned to executing on continuous improvement initiatives across the business. During the pandemic we had a responsibility to get as much product as possible into the hands of our customers. Now, we have moved away from that supply-at-all-costs mentality, and we are once again focused on operational efficiency. We expect to see positive financial impacts building through the year,” continued Mr Gradon.

Milestones and achievements

Over the past 12 months, Fisher & Paykel Healthcare has reached some significant milestones supporting its long-term growth strategy. The company acquired land in Karaka for a second New Zealand campus, opened a third building in Tijuana, Mexico, and began fitting out a new manufacturing facility in China.

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare increased the size of its sales force, brought forward future research and development projects, and launched its Evora Full face mask for obstructive sleep apnea. It recently received FDA clearance for the F&P 950 humidification system and Airvo 3 high flow therapy device, expanding the market for those products into the United States.

“We have some great long-term opportunities ahead of us in hospital and home respiratory therapies, surgical and anesthesia applications, and treatments for obstructive sleep apnea. In recent years our products have been used to treat approximately 20 million patients per year, and the market for our products is more than 10 times that. We are confident that we can facilitate changes in clinical practice and reach those underpenetrated markets,” concluded Mr Gradon.

Annual Shareholders’ Meeting 2023

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare has provided speeches and slide presentations for the 2023 Annual Shareholders’ Meeting to the NZX and ASX today. The meeting will begin today at 2:00pm NZST, 12:00pm AEST (10:00pm USEDT) and will be broadcast simultaneously over the internet. To participate go to: http://www.virtualmeeting.co.nz/fph23.
*Referenced 31 July 2023 exchange rates of NZD:USD 0.62, NZD:EUR 0.56, NZD:MXN 10.35.

nice to see they came out with some guidance.

[winner69]

Wow, what a turnaround by FPH share price today ….bit of a sell off early on and then recovered 4.6% to finish the day up

That’s what class does ….best of the best etc etc

[kiora]

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/hyperion-s-top-small-cap-picks-for-high-quality-earnings-in-a-slowing-economy?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Trending%20on%20Livewire%20-%20Monday%2024%20July%202023&utm_content=Trending%20on%20Livewire%20-%20Monday%2024%20July%202023+CID_982515869a6af36b4 e1d6f55928b6c11&utm_source=campaign%20monitor&utm_term=READ%20MORE

"Fisher & Paykel - 10.9%

Fisher & Paykel has built multiple sustainable competitive advantages in the high-flow therapy market with its Optiflow product. These include:

Higher humidified flow rates than competitors. This allows gas in a patient's lungs to be removed and replaced with oxygen faster, therefore accelerating recovery. The tubing technology also provides better condensation management.
The generation of substantial clinical evidence using Optiflow.
An established, reputable brand, particularly in hospital ICUs.
High barriers to entry in the industry. It takes years to replicate the technology, and Fisher & Paykel continue to invest significantly in R&D which comprises a high single-digit proportion of their revenue. There is also incumbency with already installed devices."

Yes,delivering as they said they would

[winner69]

Leaving guidance of full year revenues at $1.7 billion implies (at this stage) no growth in second half of year …..even with NZD where it is

Can’t be right

[winner69]

Forbar retail their UNDERPERFORM on FPH

Future earnings look good they say but they ‘believe that a near-best-case long-term earnings scenario is priced by the market.’

No doubt Kingfish would disagree

[bull....]

quite a few big asx healthcare stocks being pummelled after results due to margin squeeze ..... be surprised if fph is not affected similarly

i did a bit more digging on why some of these healthcare stocks getting pummelled resmed ( asx ) in particular its because of the newly approved obesity drugs ( the new wonder drugs apparently ) anyway some say this will effect demand for sleep apnea products

short interest has jumped in both resmed and fph recently too on this drug news.

i will watch with interest if these drugs do in time disrupt the sleep apnea market

[alokdhir]

i did a bit more digging on why some of these healthcare stocks getting pummelled resmed ( asx ) in particular its because of the newly approved obesity drugs ( the new wonder drugs apparently ) anyway some say this will effect demand for sleep apnea products

short interest has jumped in both resmed and fph recently too on this drug news.

i will watch with interest if these drugs do in time disrupt the sleep apnea market

ResMed is mainly 75% Sleep apnea dependent company while FPH is more hospital humidification dependent business ...FPH has world class hospital humidification equipment and thats under no threat from less obese people leading to less sleep apnea ...they sell mainly sleep apnea masks ...their devices are not very customer friendly thus their home care business is also ran type ...

ResMed is on BUY radar of even Morningstar now !!!

[lissica]

i did a bit more digging on why some of these healthcare stocks getting pummelled resmed ( asx ) in particular its because of the newly approved obesity drugs ( the new wonder drugs apparently ) anyway some say this will effect demand for sleep apnea products

short interest has jumped in both resmed and fph recently too on this drug news.

i will watch with interest if these drugs do in time disrupt the sleep apnea market

The GLP-1 agonists work better than anything we've had before, but they're not going to eliminate obesity or sleep apnoea.

[Joshuatree]

ResMed is mainly 75% Sleep apnea dependent company while FPH is more hospital humidification dependent business ...FPH has world class hospital humidification equipment and thats under no threat from less obese people leading to less sleep apnea ...they sell mainly sleep apnea masks ...their devices are not very customer friendly thus their home care business is also ran type ...

ResMed is on BUY radar of even Morningstar now !!!

Both stocks are re 36% down off their highs.They are looking attractive value imo. Quite a few unpleasant side effects with the obesity drugs and many folks without obesity have sleep apnoea. Not forgetting smoking (perish the thought is an appetite suppressor. Im assuming vaping is too let alone the good old fave appetite suppressor (for me anyways) coffee! Also both companies being reasonably mature just have to spend a little less on huge research budgets to increase their margins.

[winner69]

Both RMD and FPH share prices apparently been impacted by these obesity drug hype ….pretty strong correlation last few months

Interesting there’s a strong correlation between RMD and an outfit CCX on ASX (Citychic)

Obesity drug hype = No more fat people = no revenue for Citychic (who specialise in big size clothes)

Hope just a hype

[winner69]

Share price fallen to where Forbar can raise its rating to neutral ..that’s cool

From businessdesk

Forsyth Barr analysts have upgraded their rating of Fisher & Paykel Healthcare to neutral following recent share-price weakness.

They said the weakening NZD/USD and Fisher & Paykel's defensive qualities in an uncertain market is the reason for the rating lift.

"In the absence of material earnings downgrades, we struggle to see catalysts to drive the share price materially lower."

Forsyth Barr analysts Matt Montgomerie and Benjamin Crozier said Fisher & Paykel's earnings multiple had puzzled them for some time, but with the market pricing long-term revenue growth of 9% and Ebit (earnings before interest and taxes) margins of 28%, they forecast strong near-term earnings growth.

They said they came away with three takeaways from Fisher & Paykel's recent investor day: the long-term growth runway remains strong, and Fisher & Paykel continues to be well positioned, the gross margin recovery back to the company's 65% target will take time, and covid-19 is no silver bullet.

[kiora]

FPH From a glass preserving jar bubbling water through it to listing in 2001 & T/O $1.5 b in 2023
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fisher_%26_Paykel_Healthcare#History
I bought a far chunk at IPO $4.doubled down at $3.00 when SP dropped over ensuring months
Why?

At IPO I was impressed by GR,R&D % of T/O,GP margins, return on R&D, low debt level, self funding its own growth, management INC etc

No other company in NZ spends more % T/O than FPH & hold more patents on their research that I know of.
https://www.fphcare.com/nz/corporate/about-us/patents/
These are not easy to obtain
It churns out cash.
It has never had to hold out its hand to shareholders for more
It has self funded its growth
R&D & manufacturing facilities have never had to change except to keep up with its growth
It has insignificant debt
Insignificant market announcements regarding detrimental issues of the company
Management looks after interests of all stake holders
( As does IFT management)

I have accumulated more through DRIP(no capital raises since IPO?) & even though sold 10% ? few years ago still got more than I brought in first year

I can see no reason to change this view gained at IPO

[winner69]

FPH share price often follows RMD and this new drug seems to be affecting both

Had to smile with these on X -

@berthon_jones
$RMD resumes falling into the sea as GLP-1s continuing to demonstrate “good for what ails you”. We’d thought ourselves clever buying below $25, but it is quite relentless out there, as the register churns over.

And one of his followers replied

Lly trials results for osa due Mar 24 more bad news coming in next 6 months imo.

They reckon RMD share price heading to $15

Heck if FPH follows suit we could see it’s share price well below $20

Hope not as that’ll stuff KFL up …and golly gosh Burrimundi as well as they love RMD

[Panda-NZ-]

Both RMD and FPH share prices apparently been impacted by these obesity drug hype ….pretty strong correlation last few months

Interesting there’s a strong correlation between RMD and an outfit CCX on ASX (Citychic)

Obesity drug hype = No more fat people = no revenue for Citychic (who specialise in big size clothes)

Hope just a hype

I have abbott labs which is also down.

There could be a funny situation if there is indeed a "cure" for obesity.. will people just eat Mcdonalds everyday and stuff their faces.

[BlackPeter]

FPH share price often follows RMD and this new drug seems to be affecting both

Had to smile with these on X -

@berthon_jones
$RMD resumes falling into the sea as GLP-1s continuing to demonstrate “good for what ails you”. We’d thought ourselves clever buying below $25, but it is quite relentless out there, as the register churns over.

And one of his followers replied

Lly trials results for osa due Mar 24 more bad news coming in next 6 months imo.

They reckon RMD share price heading to $15

Heck if FPH follows suit we could see it’s share price well below $20

Hope not as that’ll stuff KFL up …and golly gosh Burrimundi as well as they love RMD

Who knows, maybe FPH moves at some stage even into the "fair value" region - which, according to my crystal ball would be around $15. Though - according to Grahams formula the share is less than $9 but shareclarity (DCF) puts them on $19.15;

What have all these numbers in common? Well, of course, they are all below $20 - and they all have been calculated before the hype around this new weight-loss medication emerged.

Maybe it is a fair value drug?

[Sideshow Bob]

Hyperion buying more.....now up over 6%

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/FPH/419901/405054.pdf

[alokdhir]

FPH shud not be that much affected as RMD by this new anti obesity drug ....they derive 2/3 of their revenues from hospital equipment and consumables and small part from OSA related ....dont know how anti obesity drug will change their hospital humidification business ?? Maybe baby ie FPH getting dumped unjustly ...or there is an opportunity in FPH developing ????

[winner69]

Not a good look this headline in BusinessDesk

Bullying claims emerge at F&P Healthcare

Suppose bullying happens somewhere in big most work places, nobody is perfect

[alokdhir]

Like bullying happens on Sharetrader Forum also ....lol :p

[winner69]

Mainfreight share price up 16% since reporting things getting back to normal

FPH report next week ..hope they say things are normalising and share price goes up 16% …or $26.50

That’ll be good

[Sideshow Bob]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/422577

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare announces results for the first half of the 2024 financial year

Auckland, New Zealand, 29 November 2023 - Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation Limited (NZX:FPH, ASX:FPH) today announced its results for the first half of the 2024 financial year.

For the six months ended 30 September 2023, total operating revenue was $803.7 million, a 16% increase from the prior corresponding period in both reported and constant currency. Net profit after tax for the first half was $107.3 million, a 12% increase from the same period in the previous financial year, or a 22% increase in constant currency.

“Our first half result indicates a continuation of stable ordering patterns in our Hospital business and a robust performance for Homecare,” said Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer Lewis Gradon.

In the Hospital product group, which includes humidification products used in respiratory, acute and surgical care, revenue for the first half was $487.5 million. This marks an increase of 11% on the prior comparable period, and 11% in constant currency. Hospital new applications consumables grew 19% in constant currency.

"Apparent growth rates this financial year will be impacted by COVID-19 effects throughout last year," said Mr Gradon. "We continued to see strong demand for hospital consumables across the product portfolio in the first half, and hardware demand was solid. We remain pleased with the progress we are making on changing clinical practice."

In the Homecare product group, which includes products used in the treatment of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) and respiratory support in the home, revenue was $314.4 million, a 26% increase over the prior comparable period, or 25% in constant currency. OSA masks and accessories revenue increased 28% in constant currency.

“Evora Full has been available in the United States for more than a year, and it continues to see impressive demand and positive customer feedback,” said Mr Gradon. “We are set to build on this momentum next year as our revolutionary new F&P Solo mask is rolled out beyond New Zealand and Australia.”

Gross margin was 60.5%, up 65 basis points, or 192 basis points in constant currency, compared to the first half of the 2023 financial year.

“Headwinds such as freight rates and manufacturing inefficiencies continue to ease, while inflationary raw material and manufacturing costs remain key areas of focus for our teams,” said Mr Gradon. “We remain confident in our ability to return to our long-term target of 65% within three to four years.”

The company’s directors have approved an interim dividend of 18.0 cents per ordinary share, up from 17.5 cents per share in the prior corresponding period. The interim dividend, carrying full New Zealand imputation credit, will be paid on 18 December 2023 with a record date of 6 December 2023. The company’s dividend reinvestment plan remains available to eligible shareholders with a 3% discount applying to this interim dividend.

Looking ahead

“At current exchange rates*, we expect operating revenue for the 2024 financial year to be approximately $1.7 billion and net profit after tax to be in the range of approximately $250 million to $260 million.

“Historically, sales of our hospital consumables are typically higher in the second half, reflecting seasonal patterns of hospitals,” said Mr Gradon. “We are currently expecting that our revenue
guidance approximation incorporates the range of pre-COVID historical seasonality in hospital consumables.”

*At 31 October 2023 exchange rates of NZD:USD 0.58, NZD:EUR 0.55, NZD:MXN 10.55.

Overview of key results for the first half of the 2024 financial year

• 12% increase in net profit after tax to $107.3 million, 22% increase in constant currency.
• 16% increase in operating revenue to $803.7 million, 16% increase in constant currency.
• 11% increase in Hospital operating revenue to $487.5 million, 11% increase in constant currency.
• 19% increase in constant currency for new applications consumables (products used in noninvasive ventilation, Optiflow nasal high flow and surgical applications) accounting for 70% of Hospital consumables revenue.
• 26% increase in Homecare operating revenue to $314.4 million, 25% increase in constant currency.
• 28% increase in constant currency for OSA masks and accessories revenue.
• Investment in R&D was 12% of revenue, or $96.9 million.
• 3% increase in interim dividend to 18.0 cps (H1 FY23: 17.5 cps).

About Fisher & Paykel Healthcare

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare is a leading designer, manufacturer and marketer of products and systems for use in acute and chronic respiratory care, surgery and the treatment of obstructive sleep apnea. The company’s products are sold in over 120 countries worldwide. For more information about the company, visit our website www.fphcare.com (http://www.fphcare.com).
Ends

[bull....]

good result. chart looks good too

[Muse]

it beats the street.

[Sideshow Bob]

$107m net in the jar for the 1st half, but predicting $250-260m for the full year.....:)

[alokdhir]

$107m net in the jar for the 1st half, but predicting $250-260m for the full year.....:)

They make more money during Northern hemisphere winters ...flu and all

But results are good ...SP will do well ...W69 pun may come true but maybe not like MFT levels !!!

[Toddy]

Always a great company. Only question is, what is a fair price for the shares.

The current price is probably about right.

[winner69]

They make more money during Northern hemisphere winters ...flu and all

But results are good ...SP will do well ...W69 pun may come true but maybe not like MFT levels !!!

All going to plan…..$27 next week

[winner69]

What's going on alokdhir ..... share price going down again after that boomer result

[alokdhir]

What's going on alokdhir ..... share price going down again after that boomer result

Me have no idea mate ...as I stopped tracking its progress since WE both got out fully recently ...me is now MFT fan ...as thats more easy to understand ...lol

[Marilyn Munroe]

FPH rival has product quality and regulatory problems in the US.

https://www.philips.com/a-w/about/news/archive/corpcomms/news/press/2024/philips-fourth-quarter-results-2023.html

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[winner69]

Think we’ll be seeing $27/$28 share price soon?

Maybe in lead up to results in May …or they might come out with a surprise update soon.

[Sideshow Bob]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/428415

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare updates FY24 revenue and earnings guidance

Auckland, New Zealand, 22 March 2024 – Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation Limited announced today that it has updated its revenue and earnings guidance for the financial year ending 31 March 2024.

The full year guidance previously provided on 29 November 2023, based on a NZ:US exchange rate of 58 cents, was for operating revenue to be approximately $1.7 billion and net profit after tax to be in the range of approximately $250 million to $260 million.

Now, assuming a NZ:US exchange rate of approximately 61 cents for the balance of the financial year, the company expects full year operating revenue to be approximately $1.73 billion and underlying profit after tax (excluding any fair value changes) to be in the range of approximately $260 million to $265 million.

“In the Hospital product group, there has been a continuation of solid demand for our hospital consumables across the product portfolio throughout the second half, which is towards the upper end of our expectations from November,” said Lewis Gradon, Managing Director and CEO.

“In OSA masks, we have continued to see strong performance from our Evora Full mask. We have received positive feedback on our revolutionary F&P Solo mask after the recent release in early markets, and we look forward to its introduction in more countries in the coming months.”

Revaluation of company-owned land impact on FY24 net profit

The company will shortly be commencing a scheduled valuation of the properties that it owns in East Tāmaki and Karaka, Auckland and in Tijuana, Mexico as at 31 March 2024.

“In preliminary discussions we have been advised that the higher interest rate environment and current zoning status of our land in Karaka will likely have an adverse impact on the Karaka property valuation. Any reduction in the value of the Karaka land would be recognised as a non-cash accounting adjustment in the income statement and will impact our reported net profit after tax for the year. The quantum of any potential reduction in value is currently unknown, and our FY24 earnings guidance excludes this non-cash effect.

“Asset valuations will be undertaken by independent valuers, are subject to final audit and will be confirmed in the financial results for the year ending 31 March 2024, expected to be announced on 29 May 2024.

“Development of the new campus will occur over the next 30 to 40 years. We expect to submit our application for re-zoning of the Karaka land next financial year and the approvals to be granted over the coming years. We have received an enthusiastic response from the local community, and all national and local authorities recognise the significant economic, social and environmental benefits that the development of our second campus will provide,” concluded Mr Gradon.

[winner69]

It seems just as well NZD stayed up ..other wise a downgrade?

Think I have that right ..is early and no coffee yet.

[Sideshow Bob]

It seems just as well NZD stayed up ..other wise a downgrade?

You must have a graph, FPH earning vs currency vs something......??

[winner69]

You must have a graph, FPH earning vs currency vs something......??

We’ll get constant currency numbers in due course

[Rawz]

Trading on a P/E of 56x???

[winner69]

Trading on a P/E of 56x???

Apparently a couple of years ago somebody asked Lewis the CEO whether he’d acquire FPH ….response was along lines of great company but not at this price

[Sideshow Bob]

Trading on a P/E of 56x???

At the midpoint of $255m, I got 55......:confused:

Based on the last dividend, yield is 1.66%

Think we put in the same box as AIA and POT for the mystery of its share price???

[winner69]

Trading on a P/E of 56x???

Only 35 times F26 earnings forecast

[kiora]

Cheap as chips then :)
I wonder what Couta thinks?

[winner69]

FPH always had a high PE ….some say deserves it because if it’s high ROE ….others because if it’s growth profile etc etc

Anyway here’s how the PE has tracked over the years ……based on current earnings …not forecast earnings

A bit out of date …the line has gone higher since I updated it earlier lol

[Rawz]

FPH up 500% over the last 10 years. A quarter of that gain is due to multiple expansion. Thats cool

[winner69]

FPH up 500% over the last 10 years. A quarter of that gain is due to multiple expansion. Thats cool



Multiple expansion are cool

Findi great example ….and when 2CC gets to 2 bucks that’ll be great as well

And even then probably not on outrageous multiples either

[Rawz]

Multiple expansion are cool

Findi great example ….and when 2CC gets to 2 bucks that’ll be great as well

And even then probably not on outrageous multiples either

Double engine growth dream.

TWR next

[winner69]

Double engine growth dream.

TWR next

With TWR I’d say you wish as not likely ….but then the way you picking them TWR almost certain to go over 100

Cheers

[Jaa]

It seems just as well NZD stayed up ..other wise a downgrade?

Think I have that right ..is early and no coffee yet.

Hedging aside, if the NZD had not stayed up the profit upgrade would have been bigger.

Looks like they got ripped off on the Karaka land but.

So profit much the same.

No sign of impact from those magic pills.

[moose]

My thoughts too - FPH is effectively an exporter that reports in NZ$ and its main market is in US$ - a weak NZ$ should help it? (accepting that its more complex than than as it also makes product in Mexico). It does quite a bit of hedging so who knows if it has won or lost on these - its a zero-sum game at best!

[winner69]

FPH share price nudging 27 bucks today

Getting back to where it was a year ago and seeing better shape it could go to $30 in next month or two ……and then $35 by end of year

[limmy]

Quite likely

[kiora]

Index buying ahead of end of the month?
https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/quote/fph.NZ/holders/

[alokdhir]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/428702

FPH in trouble today ?? $ 12 mil downgrade !!!

[winner69]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/428702

FPH in trouble today ?? $ 12 mil downgrade !!!

One offs don’t count ..just normalise it like Fletchers …or The Warehouse

Not really a downgrade …so share price OK …...but punters might be thinking this is the beginning of a series of bad news …..recall, building depreciation impacting tax ….hint if property devaluations coming up …… what next I wonder?

[kiora]

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/hyperion-s-top-small-cap-picks-for-high-quality-earnings-in-a-slowing-economy?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Trending%20on%20Livewire%20-%20Monday%2024%20July%202023&utm_content=Trending%20on%20Livewire%20-%20Monday%2024%20July%202023+CID_982515869a6af36b4 e1d6f55928b6c11&utm_source=campaign%20monitor&utm_term=READ%20MORE

"Fisher & Paykel - 10.9%

Fisher & Paykel has built multiple sustainable competitive advantages in the high-flow therapy market with its Optiflow product. These include:

Higher humidified flow rates than competitors. This allows gas in a patient's lungs to be removed and replaced with oxygen faster, therefore accelerating recovery. The tubing technology also provides better condensation management.
The generation of substantial clinical evidence using Optiflow.
An established, reputable brand, particularly in hospital ICUs.
High barriers to entry in the industry. It takes years to replicate the technology, and Fisher & Paykel continue to invest significantly in R&D which comprises a high single-digit proportion of their revenue. There is also incumbency with already installed devices."

From 24-7-24

This has been predictable,dependable & reliable ever since they listed.The rest is just noise.

"Heavyweight Fisher and Paykel Healthcare led the market upwards by increasing 68c or 2.65% to $26.30 after investment manager UBS upgraded the stock’s target price to $29.10, from $28.50.

Smith said the UBS report commented Fisher and Paykel had its strongest (obstructive sleep apnea) mask offering in a decade and upgraded its hospital revenue growth to 70% over the next five years.

“Investors are positive over the launch of its fourth mask (Nova Micro) in two years and they are fetching premium prices compared to competitors’ products. It all rolls into a new earnings growth story."
https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976523019/nz-sharemarket-rises-for-the-first-time-this-month.html?utm_source=GR&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=GoodReturns+Market+Report+for+10+Apr+ 2024

Wheres Couta?

[Relaxed]

Weight loss drug is showing signs of reduced OSA.
If this plays out then it could affect FPH core business

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/17/eli-lillys-zepbound-shows-promise-as-sleep-apnea-treatment-in-trial.html

[alokdhir]

Weight loss drug is showing signs of reduced OSA.
If this plays out then it could affect FPH core business

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/17/eli-lillys-zepbound-shows-promise-as-sleep-apnea-treatment-in-trial.html

FPH core business is not OSA masks but Hospital humidification . Though it may affect investor sentiment till actuals come out showing nothing changed with these drugs ...though its well known that first advise a OSA patient gets is to reduce weight !!

[Relaxed]

FPH core business is not OSA masks but Hospital humidification . Though it may affect investor sentiment till actuals come out showing nothing changed with these drugs ...though its well known that first advise a OSA patient gets is to reduce weight !!

FPH is a great innovator and it will be interesting to see how it plays out

[thedrunkfish]

What caused the big jump after close yesterday?

[Greekwatchdog]

For Bars report yesterday

We upgrade our rating on F&P Healthcare (FPH) to NEUTRAL from UNDERPERFORM. Our analysis suggests a large long-term opportunity in the anaesthesia market. This reflects: (1) strong industry feedback, (2) large market size, and (3) current use case/body of clinical research, underpinning a solid market penetration ability (which we expect to grow through time). Anaesthesia products represent only ~4% of our FY24 revenue forecast but are at a critical point for investors to take notice, with potential for the anaesthesia opportunity to be a key driver for the investment case over the next decade. While relative valuation to peers is ahead of history, it looks fair accounting for FPH's superior near-term earnings growth. We take comfort in the longer-term anaesthesia opportunity which underpins robust valuation support.

What's changed?
Earnings: Negligible near-term changes, more material longer-term upgrades given higher anaesthesia revenue.
Target price: Increased to NZ$25.90 (from NZ$23.45) given peers change and higher medium/long-term earnings expectations.
Rating: Upgraded to NEUTRAL (from UNDERPERFORM).
Large total addressable market (TAM) but current evidence suggests relatively low penetration
Our analysis suggests up to ~270m global procedures using general anaesthesia/procedural sedation (up to ~120m in developed markets). Based off current clinical evidence, using Australia as a guide, and clinician feedback, the primary use case today is for high-risk patients, but we expect the patient pool to grow over time as more population specific evidence is published. Today FPH's penetration is ~0.5% (~1.0% developed markets), our FY38 forecasts assume penetration of ~3-4% (developed markets of ~5-7%).


Industry feedback is constructive
Feedback from 12 users of the anaesthesia products is very consistent: (1) physicians ‘generally speaking’ love the product; (2) usage is primarily on high-risk patients/difficult airways (use is ~5% of total patients today, albeit there is a range); (3) there is no real perceived benefit in other standard procedures; thus, only clinicians need it for a small portion of patients at this stage (particularly given the current clinical evidence); and (4) there is little/no competition.


Anaesthesia underpins solid DCF valuation support
We now assume FY38 anaesthesia patient volumes of ~8.5m (from ~5m), which drives ~+5-7% EPS upgrades. This underpins robust ‘cash flow’ valuation support, helps allay our concerns on the new apps consumables growth factored into the share price, and provides greater confidence in consensus' consumables revenue growth long-term. We expect the share price to remain constrained given absolute valuation and relative valuation to peers is slightly elevated, and thus refrain from a more positive recommendation.

[kiora]

Is FPH overvalued at $28.55 ?
A better question might be is the FPH shareprice likely to fall or increase in the next .... year?

As a FPH shareholder do you want to sell some/all of the shares held? No
As a non FPH shareholder do you want to buy FPH? No
If you are and index fund will you likely to be buying or selling FPH shares: Buying?
Are FPH shares tightly held ? Yes ?
"The group holding the most number of shares in the company, around 55% to be precise, is institutions,then insiders with 9.4%"
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fisher-paykel-healthcare-corporation-limiteds-223622781.html
https://app.companiesoffice.govt.nz/companies/app/ui/pages/companies/51516/shareholdings?backurl=H4sIAAAAAAAAAC2LQQ7CMAwEf5NL D32BhThx6QEJPmDFLo1oHWM7SPk9UcVtd2d2Vnyxz7keilJGck bL2%2BWoxOCBQmiUoisDS5QYSvrAWnxjmwadFPub94T0RclMdx TeIaxxOv3%2BHFeH67L8%2ByMwmt%2BsNj3nH%2BiFKqWBAAAA
https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/quote/FPH.NZ/key-statistics/

So if its a consistently good company likely to grow its earnings

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/FISHER-PAYKEL-HEALTHCARE--6492630/finances/

What is likely to be supply & demand for buying its shares over the next year & what is likely to happen to its share price?
What is the likelihood of FPH SP dropping? Low?

Share price is likely to stay "elevated" is it not?

[kiora]

Its the "bumb" ETS money that has been buying lately

ETFs positioned on Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation Limited

[kiora]

The ebb & flo of capital markets,shares to bonds,bonds to shares

Its the "bumb" ETS money that has been doing most of the buying lately.

ETFs positioned on Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation Limited

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/FISHER-PAYKEL-HEALTHCARE--6492630/positions/

[alokdhir]

With TOP weightage on every NZ index ...FPH has automatic buyers ...many low cost KiwiSaver funds are pure index funds and they get regular flows ...supply is limited as not much retail participation ...Kiora wont sell ...


PS : Also read lot of talk about its high p/e ...I think its connected with its IPs and wide moat etc ...not directly with its earnings like one wud value TRA etc

[winner69]

Got excited this morning as it seemed FPH share price was going to rocket past 30 bucks ….but then ASX opened

Tomorrow maybe

[kiora]

Please don't jinx it W69 !