View Full Version : Mobile Embrace Limited ("MBE")
am happy with the run up the last couple of days - be it from HC pumping or not :)
The Big Ease
30-12-2013, 10:26 PM
There's no way HC pumping is going to generate this sort of increasing volume over 5 days.
The October trading update has woken the market up.
The trajectory of this industry, segment and for the company is up and with great velocity too.
I think this has finally sunk in with the demonstrated growth in the Australian market about to be replicated in the US to a bigger audience (+2x).
In a little over 12 months the mPayments business has grown in Australia to a point where the current run-rate is approaching 24m p.a.
Roll-out -> momentum doesn't seem to take too long.
Their advertising business could be sold too. Currently generating about 2-3m p.a. in revenue and these businesses typically sell for 10-18 times revenue, depending on size.
That would be a nice cash injection for the company @ ~20-30m. Even 10m would be a boost.
The Big Ease, I think that's a little optimistic to be honest. I think the recent activity has a bit to do with the general consensus of this sector, as it is not just MBE that has seen different trading in the last 2 weeks, it's also MNW, and MKB. However MBE has seen better volume and buying but I don't believe this is out of the ordinary as MBE has had the higher average volume of the last 2 months compared to MNW and MKB when this sector started it's correction.
What is more interesting for me is the closing gap between MNW and MBE. MNW was, since the start, looked upon as the stock with the most potential as it is laying out an infrastructure technology and thus with the types of deals it was making was seen as one that could ramp up to massive transactions quickly - especially if they are able to sign on more Banks.
However Mobile Embrace has it appears has a similar tactic - signing up the big telcos, with perhaps an arguably bigger strike rate than MNW. That's no doubt helped close the gap.
The Big Ease
03-01-2014, 01:22 PM
MNW will need more capital.
They've only enough for 2 quarters and their revenues are 1/3rd of MBE's current run rate.
Square in the US required 340m USD to ramp up to 160m. It is valued at about 3.5billion.
As for MBE. They could sell their ads business for 10m for all I care at a multiple of 4 times revenue. That's half the lowest multiple among some recent transactions which have been reported.
Their revenues though are growing and their rollout to the US is about to gain some major traction.
Whuch part do you think I am being too optimistic about?
MNW will need more capital.
They've only enough for 2 quarters and their revenues are 1/3rd of MBE's current run rate.
Square in the US required 340m USD to ramp up to 160m. It is valued at about 3.5billion.
As for MBE. They could sell their ads business for 10m for all I care at a multiple of 4 times revenue. That's half the lowest multiple among some recent transactions which have been reported.
Their revenues though are growing and their rollout to the US is about to gain some major traction.
Whuch part do you think I am being too optimistic about?
I was specifically thinking "The October trading update has woken the market up." was a little too optimistic - not your opinion on the companies performance.
They've had plenty of time to be woken up. I think the recent volume and price movements really has more to do with all the information that's been out for the weeks/months plus a resurgence in these sorts of companies off a big correction.
winner69
03-01-2014, 05:21 PM
Hi. My broker has bought a lot of this stock for me recently. Apparently there are a lot of funds buying this now and expectations are in the $s. I would like to see a sub notice. Has anybody heard anything from the company?
Maybe Green Screen was right after all ........
winner69
03-01-2014, 07:42 PM
Jeez 30 cents now .... in SNK language almost half way to a buck
Doesn't seem long ago I bought heaps sub 3 cents and wasn't that long after that sold enough at 17 to free carry 80% of the original number
This is getting stupid ... and still don't really understand what the key drivers that make them money
winner69
03-01-2014, 08:55 PM
That might be the secret - if you don't understand it, you can't knock it. I also don't understand it. For instance, they are supposed to be in the business of mobile payments, yet their deals with the telcos have the telcos doing the customer billing and payment collection for MBE. So what are they selling then? Delivering ad content? Which I think is something that Google and Apple do better and to far greater effect. If you can figure it out let me know.
Buffett said “Never invest in a business you can’t understand.” .....so I have sinned bless me. Wasn't much when I first bought these but heaps now.
Maybe another Buffett quote is appropriate - “It’s better to hang out with people better than you. Pick out associates whose behavior is better than yours and you’ll drift in that direction.”
Was really only listening to the informed comment of the likes of steve that made me look and consider MBE
Lets hope it it is heading to a buck plus
The Big Ease
04-01-2014, 01:24 AM
I was specifically thinking "The October trading update has woken the market up." was a little too optimistic - not your opinion on the companies performance.
They've had plenty of time to be woken up. I think the recent volume and price movements really has more to do with all the information that's been out for the weeks/months plus a resurgence in these sorts of companies off a big correction.
Oh I see.
Yes, I suspect you are right on that count.
Sometimes it takes a little bit of SP momentum before the market factors in the recently released information.
I wasn't expecting today's 9% jump. A bit more time to consolidate by my reading, but no complaints from me.
I put up a post on HC about what they do. (http://hotcopper.com.au/post_threadview.asp?fid=1&tid=2162141&msgno=10025395#10025395)
Two businesses:
1. ad network similar to amobee and admob etc This is a business which places ads within other mobile apps. They sell this space to advertisers and share the revenue with the owners of the ad space. Think of google ads for mobile apps instead of websites.
2. mPayments - they licence software to do this from their end and partner with a telco to facilitate collection of revenues.
MBE has a proprietary customer management software, which is where the value added component comes in for potential content partners like angry birds etc
MBE's customer targeting and management know-how is what convinces content partners like angry birds to team up with MBE.
In addition to this, MBE also develops its own apps to monetise. This is much more lucrative as they get to keep most of the revenue less the telco's cut.
The Big Ease
04-01-2014, 03:10 AM
Premium mobile sales agency Mobile Embrace has partnered with Rovio, enabling Australian advertisers to purchase targeted inventory on Angry Birds, and Rovio’s other apps, for the first time.
Read more at http://mobilemarketingmagazine.com/mobile-embrace-opens-angry-birds-australian-advertisers/#YYABQ46SBZQ9pYuW.99
http://mobilemarketingmagazine.com/mobile-embrace-opens-angry-birds-australian-advertisers/
winner69
04-01-2014, 06:11 AM
Price strength at end of week not HC trader behaviour?
Solid increase on a down day.
Good signs for coming weeks?
Mobile Embrace looking likely to overtake Mint Wireless in price today judging by the pre-open. The market is clearly favouring MBE. They're seeing some value in the recent announcements I think.
Wow, profit takers moving in on a strong opening and now maybe panic setting in for a few of the traders.
So far High of 31.5c, low of 29c and in the first 10 minutes.
Would be very interesting to see if the HC activity regarding MBE dies down after this session.
False Profit
08-01-2014, 12:43 PM
Come on guys. We're tipping into 30+cents. What is the new resistance price? 35cents?
Personally I think we'll see 32c as resistance, at least for this week, might pass it on friday but back around those levels early next week. that will be gone once the annual comes out though i'm thinking
False Profit
08-01-2014, 02:46 PM
That's interesting, Clip, as I was hoping to pick up some more on Friday where I'd anticipated a small drop in price due to some end of the week sell offs etc.
Smart money -
Sells on a Monday
Buys on a Friday
Enables one to retire at 55yrs (not a hope)
you could very well be right, I have not been following them too closely
winner69
08-01-2014, 04:01 PM
That's interesting, Clip, as I was hoping to pick up some more on Friday where I'd anticipated a small drop in price due to some end of the week sell offs etc.
Smart money -
Sells on a Monday
Buys on a Friday
Enables one to retire at 55yrs (not a hope)
ended last week on a high .... why not again this week
in SNK language just about half way to a buck .... go MBE
winner69
10-01-2014, 04:21 PM
That's interesting, Clip, as I was hoping to pick up some more on Friday where I'd anticipated a small drop in price due to some end of the week sell offs etc.
Smart money -
Sells on a Monday
Buys on a Friday
Enables one to retire at 55yrs (not a hope)
MBE doesn't worry about end of week sell offs ....sort of indicates that only serious investors driving the price activity
Month ago was capitulation in the mid 17's - a lot has happened since
Moosie turned me out of SNK ....and MBE seemed a better option in sector, esp st 2 cents odd. Thanks Moosie
Still don't understand what the real drivers of value are ....best I come up with is how busy the team in Vietnam are, but heck I don't even understand what those people do
The Big Ease
11-01-2014, 12:37 AM
The team in Vietnam are the graphic designers and app developers.
Goldstein
13-01-2014, 02:59 PM
Picked some of these up today with some spare cash after rebalancing my portfolio on friday. Not a lot, but I think I'll just accumulate as and when.
I was looking quite hard at GEO, but it just doesn't feel right to me. Lot of good rhetoric, but somehow not a lot of substance.
How did you go false did you manage to pick some more up? I see we touched 32c again today briefly I wonder if there will be more selling down before close today. I'm picking a close of 37-39c around end of week with resistance of 40c nect week.
Please note I am a noob and these are just musings to test myself, and should not be an indication to buy or sell :) discl holding tightly
tosspot
13-01-2014, 03:23 PM
this ones definitely a goody, mine are not for sale for sometime. momentum is just with them in more aspects than one, seems silly to sell.
Goldstein
13-01-2014, 06:13 PM
Not quite the best start. According to my 10% stop-loss I should sell. Think I'll just hold onto them.
wow should have stuck with my original theory of 32 closing today. interesting week ahead, be good if we could get some news on how the singtel stuff is going
False Profit
13-01-2014, 10:32 PM
How did you go false did you manage to pick some more up? I see we touched 32c again today briefly I wonder if there will be more selling down before close today. I'm picking a close of 37-39c around end of week with resistance of 40c nect week.
Please note I am a noob and these are just musings to test myself, and should not be an indication to buy or sell :) discl holding tightly
Hey Clip! I did the dirty and sold my stock at 32.5 cents today. My hunch was right as it continued to drop away somewhat. Now looking for an entry point.
False Profit
13-01-2014, 10:38 PM
ended last week on a high .... why not again this week
in SNK language just about half way to a buck .... go MBE
I won't argue with you on that point Winner. But the steam has run out a little with options to buy more on the horizon. You didn't think it was going to carry on it's upward trajectory ad infinitum, did you? As mentioned in a previous comment I've sold up and now seek an entry point. Hopefully I've not mucked it up, hopefully I'll be back in and celebrating that end of week high on Friday :t_up:
Go MBE!
The Big Ease
13-01-2014, 11:34 PM
There hasn't been much selling down for a little while and I think it's just a few people prompted to take profits in the afternoon.
Same with MNW and MKB.
soulman
13-01-2014, 11:36 PM
wow should have stuck with my original theory of 32 closing today. interesting week ahead, be good if we could get some news on how the singtel stuff is going
I got lucky with MBE (sold at 34.5 high) but not so good with MKB. Looks like the sector was getting the boot today.
The Big Ease
14-01-2014, 12:08 AM
hi soulman, interested in why you have sold.
False Profit
14-01-2014, 11:53 AM
Is now the time to get in whilst it's at 29cents? Depth shows it'll open higher, though.
Copper
21-01-2014, 07:22 PM
Is now the time to get in whilst it's at 29cents? Depth shows it'll open higher, though.
Its held up and looks to be on the go again. Let's hope so....
False Profit
22-01-2014, 06:49 AM
Anyone know the reason for the 14% increase yesterday afternoon? No news out that I'm aware of.
Copper
22-01-2014, 07:23 AM
Anyone know the reason for the 14% increase yesterday afternoon? No news out that I'm aware of.
As mentioned before I am no chartist but from the little I have picked up I would guess it was the charts.Some chartist may wish to comment.....
tosspot
22-01-2014, 07:37 AM
I think its just anticipation for the trading update, most likely that or a small chance a solid position is being taken
winner69
22-01-2014, 07:49 AM
Just part and parcel of MBEs inevitable rise to a buck (as greenscreen's brokers tell him)
Some big up days and some big down days but overall up
I think its just anticipation for the trading update, most likely that or a small chance a solid position is being taken
That's been my guess. The market appears to be anticipating a 3.5+ EBITDA. I don't think it'll be that high. It could get close to 3 though.
steve fleming
22-01-2014, 09:22 AM
Interesting speculation on h/c that Cannacord is to shortly initiate coverage on MBE.
a decent broking report would give good credibility to MBE and an independent assessment of its business model
both MNW (Cannacord) and MKB (Fosters) re-rated strongly on the back of broker coverage
The following article mentions something i was attempting to discuss a few pages back.
It's a topic of mobile payments that hopefully Mobile Embrace is moving towards. I believe there is no doubt that this is where it is all heading.
UK operators could soon be facilitating payments for physical goods bought by subscribers via carrier billing services. Direct operator billing firm,Mach (http://www.telecoms.com/tag/mach/), has now signed Vodafone (http://www.telecoms.com/category/company/vodafone-company/),Everything Everywhere (http://www.telecoms.com/category/company/everything-everywhere/), O2 (http://www.telecoms.com/category/company/o2/) and 3UK (http://www.telecoms.com/tag/3uk/) up to its Direct Operator Billing platform for digital goods, and said that the use of such a solution to purchase physical goods is on the horizon.
http://www.telecoms.com/49751/uk-moving-towards-operator-billing-for-physical-goods/
And here's an article about T-Mobile setting up a checking account, which i believe more and more telecoms will do in the future. They're going to become quasi-banks or double up as credit-card companies.
http://www.droid-life.com/2014/01/21/t-mobile-expands-into-banking-with-mobile-money-checking-service/
This highlights the future for MBE. Once they've mastered the selling of digital content and online goods, they need to put their billing technology in place to allow people to pay for physical goods via their mobile account, so as to act as a credit facility of sorts.
False Profit
05-02-2014, 07:00 PM
de ja vu - MBE hitting a low of 28.5
Hopefully they can retain the price level and bounce to the 30's again. Some encouraging news from Asia might be nice around now.
steve fleming
06-02-2014, 08:54 PM
http://www.asx.com.au/spotlight/newyork/index.htm
MBE is scheduled to present in New York at end of Februrary
Must be part of their roadshow as mentioned a few posts ago
It would be strange if MBE has chosen this time to promote, if they didn't have good news to tell....hopefully this will be there half year results
stoploss
12-02-2014, 05:23 PM
Right, I have finally joined the MBE crew today! Price has held up very well lately and I believe were overdue for a trading update, as well as having the HY report come out at the very end of the month. Expecting an easy push through 30 cents :)
welcome aboard.
Entrep
12-02-2014, 05:35 PM
Anyone want to give me an update on what's been happening? Not much news lately and been away for quite some time!
Isn't that the sort of question you ask before buying?
AFAIK a lot of speculation and projections on revenues but basically people sitting tight until the HY announcement. Hasn't been much news, they are not required to release quarterly's by AU/ASX standards so mostly just waiting for the HY. Hoping to see some increased revenues from the singtel/sprint signings, whether or not they will come into play already in the HY remains to be seen. Don't have much in the way of expected revenues/hopeful targets to offer sorry
The Big Ease
17-02-2014, 10:41 AM
I'm pretty confident the Australian business is ticking over nicely.
It's the initial sprint numbers from the USA which interest me the most.
Whatever the initial January number is for the USA, the growth curve from the Australian business can be applied to give a meaningful projection.
I am expcting a beauty and perhaps even some commentary on Feb, given we are half way through.
A bit disappointed we haven't had a trading update.
The business is far too young to be acting grown up right now.
Give us 6-12 months of decent profits and then be on your way.
bottlerboy
17-02-2014, 01:04 PM
The half year report is due out at the end of this month.
Reported revenue was $6.2M for the first 4 months so say 25% growth over the next two months then half year would be just over $10M
I think the share price will be hammered if they dont report revenue of at least that.
What are you picking the figure will be Moosie?
bottlerboy
17-02-2014, 02:13 PM
Your $10M figure assumes a steady or nearly negative growth rate, not 25%...)
Sorry not sure how you get that?
$6.2M over 4 months = average monthly of $1.55M
So $1.55M + 25% = $1.94M
$6.2 + 2 months at $1.94M = $10.08M
Entrep
17-02-2014, 03:27 PM
Rev +65% to $9.5m
NPAT +909% to $1.6m
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20140217/pdf/42mrvjx971stsr.pdf
NZSilver
17-02-2014, 03:27 PM
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20140217/pdf/42mrvqnfj0r0hm.pdf
stoploss
17-02-2014, 03:34 PM
I was just starting to have a quick look at this company, and am a little surprised by the revenue number. So that indicates negative (QoQ) revenue growth (all be it only by a tad) over the last 2 Qs.
You sure that is not too bad? Going by your guys recent posts that would seem quite a long way under what you were both predicting.
I.e. for you Moosie that's 30% less than what you were projecting and for bottlerboy 10% less. Time to rethink growth rates a bit?? or do you guys think these last 2 Qs were once offs??
It does say this does not include any offshore revenue, which Moosie was looking for. Personally think the Mobile payments is a great sector to be in and glad to see they are putting more resources that way.
They have announced offshore deals so not sure why there is no revenue as yet. Happy to hold this one .
stoploss
17-02-2014, 03:55 PM
We need the voice of reason …over to you Steve Fleming or you at the cricket watching a fine NZ second innings …. ?
bottlerboy
17-02-2014, 04:30 PM
I was simply too optimistic in hoping that there would be some sign of traction from the Sintel and Sprint markets.
Still a very tidy net profit after tax of $1.62M given the previous corresponding 6 month period was a loss of $0.2M.
And while I notice Trade and other receivables has gone up from $3.5M to $4.01M Cash has gone from just $156,226 to a healthy $1.35M
Balance
17-02-2014, 04:53 PM
I was just starting to have a quick look at this company, and am a little surprised by the revenue number. So that indicates negative (QoQ) revenue growth (all be it only by a tad) over the last 2 Qs.
You sure that is not too bad? Going by your guys recent posts that would seem quite a long way under what you were both predicting.
I.e. for you Moosie that's 30% less than what you were projecting and for bottlerboy 10% less. Time to rethink growth rates a bit?? or do you guys think these last 2 Qs were once offs??
Growth rate slowing down is not a good sign for future profitability, especially when combined with falling margins.
Market capitalization of nearly $90m means company is trading on some seriously lofty assumptions.
bottlerboy
17-02-2014, 05:20 PM
I dont think the growth rate is slowing per se, to be pedantic the growth rate is still increasing albeit slower than market expectations.
As to profit surely they have delivered very well?
This is directly from the trading update quoting Chris Thorpe the CEO “We are six months into FY2014 and have delivered $1.62 million net profit, a 315% increase
on the whole of the 2013 financial year."
and more importantly he goes on to say "This is without yet having generated any material revenue from overseas expansion."
NZSilver
17-02-2014, 05:49 PM
Balance I always appreciate your input regarding stocks - thanks.
On MBE it's still early days yet and the numbers are good. I'd hold on tight for the time being. Important to see how international ventures pan out.
As always, looking forward to SFs thoughts - thanks in advance.
moosie have some respect and manners don't cost anything (even cheaper then mbe share price a year ago)
Growth rate slowing down is not a good sign for future profitability, especially when combined with falling margins.
Market capitalization of nearly $90m means company is trading on some seriously lofty assumptions.
this is not including sprint/singtel revenue however which I imagine is giong to be huge. NPAT increasing yoy/qoq (apologies if i have this wrong, have just glanced over the thread recently) is still pretty promising without the new growth areas factored in IMO
NZSilver
17-02-2014, 05:58 PM
Balance I always appreciate your input regarding stocks - thanks.
On MBE it's still early days yet and the numbers are good. I'd hold on tight for the time being. Important to see how international ventures pan out.
As always, looking forward to SFs thoughts - thanks in advance.
moosie have some respect and manners don't cost anything (even cheaper then mbe share price a year ago)
Moosie - Good to see you deleted your post re balance.
tosspot
17-02-2014, 06:27 PM
well Im staying in, seems absurd to me the selling today with that result in comparison to similar mobile companies on the ASX such as MKB, Especially MNW, NEA etc they have market caps much higher and show much less ability to generate revenue and not even make profits, so comparatively this is the best but the market just doesn't seem to get (when in comparison with others similar).
steve fleming
17-02-2014, 06:41 PM
We need the voice of reason …over to you Steve Fleming or you at the cricket watching a fine NZ second innings …. ?
Yeah, I wish I was at the cricket. Absolutely epic.
Anyway, pretty solid MBE result. It now has audited (reviewed) results that prove that it is fast growing and highly profitable with increasing margins (achieved DESPITE the Mobile advertising division continuing to lose money)…provides earnings and business credibility, and brokers/market now have some meaningful information to start pricing MBE.
Strong operating cash flows ($1.7m) offset by it looks like some R&D expenditure of $700k
An NPAT of $4m at 25x will support a m/cap of $100m
There is probably enough in the announcement in terms of up coming news-flow to keep the MBE story going and market happy (although the delay in US revenues is disappointing) once the short-termers have moved on :
1) the business is in the final stages of securing annual annuity income commitments from some major Australian agencies.
2 ) The business continues to diversify its m-payments product offering across games, entertainment, information services, lifestyle, sport, fashion and fitness, and is in discussions to diversify its value added services further
3) The Company is in discussions with a number of other overseas Telecommunication Carriers and aggregation partners with a view to launching its scalable mobile payments capabilities into larger addressable mobile device markets.
The announcement also helps to reset some of the expectations about growth that were getting a bit enthusiastic…MBE has a pretty good history of trading down on announcements given the number of short terms in the stock who have bought the hype and sell the news…
If the rumours about Canaccord initiating coverage are correct, then that will be a very interesting report and provide a nice catalyst
tosspot
17-02-2014, 07:05 PM
tosspot, welcome to the new DIL!
As I said before, how much of this is just daytraders panicking through reading only a single line of the report (ie revenue growth?)
Yea and even worse XRO and FLN. I almost feel insulted this dropped, the market is literally about which management team sounds the coolest and gives the most updates even if most are fluff. Investors are sup post to be smarter than that and see past the marketing.
Overall I think just like with the last signtel agreement there was a sell down at first and then another leg up, this should happen again.
would be a bonus if they followed the result up with another contract
winner69
17-02-2014, 07:25 PM
Again, like I said before re your math, you need to be clear what growth rate you are talking about. My quick look at the revenue numbers suggest YoY growth and HYoHY rev. growth rates are positive but it is the (ever so slightly) negative QoQ ave growth that is the concern. or have I done my math wrong?
Where you getting Q1 and Q2 for this yesr numbers from
They seemed to have confused many by releasing 4 months to Oct numbers only and not quarterly ones
winner69
17-02-2014, 07:40 PM
tosspot, welcome to the new DIL!
As I said before, how much of this is just daytraders panicking through reading only a single line of the report (ie revenue growth?)
Hey moosie - our views will be from different perspectives again.
Me - what do I do with the ones I bought in the 2-3 cent range (already off loaded a few at 17 cents so these are free ones). Even so it needs to be a profit maximisation approach based on what we know today, not an emotional attachment one eh.
You have a different position so probably have a different view.
I see these latest numbers as good, irrespective of the growth rates quoted by everybody in sundry I see this half revenues of 9.5 mill as a step up from the 5.7 to 6.4 mill range of the previous three quarters. A sustainable step up and you guys reckon more to come. So revenues in excess of 20 mill for the full year. That's very good. On top of this it is god to gross margins being held at high levels.
The other key factor s the 1.6 mill operating cash flow. The first decent cash flow ever and a sign that that MBE are now on a decent roll
So on these sry of financials and prospects of these new revenue streams 27 cents seems pretty cheap
But sentiment rules doesn't it moosie so anything could happen. If the price weakens tomorrow I tempted to lock in some more profits and let the balance run. Remember that guy reckon MBE is worth a buck
False Profit
17-02-2014, 08:09 PM
So for those happy to hold what are the thoughts on increasing your holding...? In for a penny etc
Disc - Holding holding holding....
stoploss
17-02-2014, 08:35 PM
So for those happy to hold what are the thoughts on increasing your holding...? In for a penny etc
Disc - Holding holding holding....
FP I probably have enough in it. Originally got in sub 4 and cashed a heap out at 7 ish …Took some concrete pills and got more on board 20/21 level. If I take cash out of the market elsewhere will be happy to add if the market still looks good.
bottlerboy
17-02-2014, 08:38 PM
Again, like I said earlier, you need to be clear what growth rate you are talking about. My quick look at the revenue numbers suggest YoY growth and HYoHY rev. growth rates are positive but it is the (ever so slightly) negative QoQ ave growth that is the concern. or have I done my math wrong? SO to say growth is not slowing seems to me to be incorrect.
Apologies Tumeric for not being concise, furthermore I am obviously not from an accounting background so tend not to talk in those terms.
What I was referring to was growth over the last two months of the six months gross revenue.
So I divided the previously reported four months result of $6.2M by 4 to get average monthly of $1.55M
If rate of increase was zero over the following two months then the six months revenue would have only been 6 x 1.55 = $9.3M or am I simply looking at this the wrong way?
steve fleming
17-02-2014, 10:08 PM
Pretty dangerous when you start comparing month on month revenues. Like any consumer facing stock, December is always going to be a slower month, as the country is pretty much on holiday for a third of the month, plus all the pre Xmas campaigns are generally complete by October/November
Just need to step back and focus on the bigger picture
Q1 14 revenue = 4.5m
Q2 14 revenue = 5.04m
Q3 and Q4 are then going to have the benefit of the international revenue, plus new products
MBE always trades down after an announcement - its just a function of its pretty crap register, and the hype that surrounds the stock -no matter what the result there are always going to be people who want/expect more
The conviction buying seems to come in independently of announcements
The Big Ease
18-02-2014, 02:02 AM
Solid result.
I was hoping for a smashing result + USA revenues in January, but it looks like they are taking some measures to align themselves for even more growth.
It will be interesting to see what they announce in the next few weeks wrt annuity incomes and broader carrier reach in the USA>
winner69
18-02-2014, 08:06 AM
Yup I agree, and if I held any of this stock I certainly wouldnt be selling based on that (but others might). I just think given the numbers it might be a good idea from now on to keep a very close eye on revenue growth to see if the trend that I am pointing out starts to come into play over a longer period. Presumably this stock IS pricing in significant future revenue growth right? And likely the drop in SP post announcement is the result of slightly disappointing revenue growth? Or is there another reason the SP dropped? My take (particularly given earlier posters lofty expectations over HY revenue) is that the SP is taking a hit because revenue did not meet many peoples expectations (by up to 30% on this thread anyway).
Turmeric
I have each quarterly sales higher than previous quarter (with an average growth of 15% Q on Q
I reckon both Q1 and Q2 (SF split) are >60% up on samr quarter a year prior
Sales number prior to 2013 FY a bit clouded by divested business
As I said last night there has been a step up in the revenue base. Like from a steady no/low period of 6,4m (June 12 half) /5,7m Dec 12 / 6,4m June 13 UP to Dec 13 Half Year of 9.5m
The business has made a step change and everybody says heaps more to be added to the business base. Maybe full year revenues 23m to 25m and NPAT of 3m to 5m .... which would make a 30 cent share price cheap
This step up to a much higher sales base is the key takeout from the report .... along with some pretty impressive cash flow and profit numbers
Maybe green screens analyst mates were right about MBE being a buck by end of year. In SNK language they are almost half way there
winner69
18-02-2014, 10:11 AM
Price was down 10% post announcement
BIG bounce today
NZSilver
18-02-2014, 01:53 PM
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20140218/pdf/42msqp2jk7570n.pdf
d'oh - if I'd had funds available would have bought the dip yesterday! WD to holders
NZSilver
18-02-2014, 01:54 PM
moving north
NZSilver
18-02-2014, 01:57 PM
DB unstuck - looks like 30+
Again, like I said earlier, you need to be clear what growth rate you are talking about. My quick look at the revenue numbers suggest YoY growth and HYoHY rev. growth rates are positive but it is the (ever so slightly) negative QoQ ave growth that is the concern. or have I done my math wrong? SO to say growth is not slowing seems to me to be incorrect.
When the report signals HYoHY growth rate, it is referring to previous corresponding HY Period, not the previous HY period. Thus, if you want to compare quarters, you should compare like (corresponding) quarters. That removes differences in seasonal variations.
"Mobile Embrace Limited (ASX: MBE), announced today that its mobile marketing / advertising business 4th Screen Advertising Australia has secured new mobile advertising contracts with Australian advertising agencies totaling $5.35 million in advertising revenue. The contracts deliver brand new annuity revenues, the majority of which will be paid to the company throughout the 2015 financial year."
Promising news but no movement in SP with sellers repeatedly stepping in at 28.5c
steve fleming
18-02-2014, 06:57 PM
Do not expect MBE to move on announcements - announcements are just an opportunity for traders to do their thing
Its just the nature of MBE’s register and an overhang of when it was a day-traders play thing from 2c to the mid teens.
However, MBE does generally respect technicals – so the good thing is that this period of consolidation should provide a nice base for its next leg up.
I would guess that increased volume and interest will follow the release of the rumoured broker coverage and roadshow
The good thing about today’s announcement is that it provides more information and further guidance for the broker analysts when constructing MBE’s earning profile.
The reason I keep mentioning this broker report is that, unfortunately, MBE’s communication with the market is terrible and apart from high level revenue commentary, the detail they provide in terms of drivers, products etc is terrible.
Given this is a new, fast moving industry and because MBE gives so little away in terms of its business model, the market will be relying on some independent assessment of MBE’s business model and its future prospects - essentially it will give the MBE story the credibility and the respect that it lacks at the moment
MNW and MKB, who are in similar boats, all got big re-rates on the back of broker reports.
stoploss
18-02-2014, 08:19 PM
Agree Steve, half of making big profits is buying before coverage is initiated and the big boys start buying in! I think the entire mobile market is pretty bad at communicating these metrics and the first one to truly get it right will see a good rerating and maybe a market leader. Kind of shocking for a sector focussed on PR/Marketting!
Moosie I think there is an app for mobile updates !!!!!!
Balance
20-02-2014, 05:12 PM
Agree Steve, half of making big profits is buying before coverage is initiated and the big boys start buying in! I think the entire mobile market is pretty bad at communicating these metrics and the first one to truly get it right will see a good rerating and maybe a market leader. Kind of shocking for a sector focussed on PR/Marketting!
Snakk did a bloody good job, don't you think?
They had punters lining up like quaking ducks to be fed stock from the major holders selling out - until the ducks suffered from over-feeding?
Balance
20-02-2014, 06:37 PM
If Snakk holders were geese, would that mean Mr Handley was a pate enthusiast?
You in on MBE Balance?
That he is, Moose, that he is.
Keeping an eye but valuations too rich in this sector - too early to pick winners.
But Snakk will definitely not be one.
Xerof
20-02-2014, 08:20 PM
1. It's Foie Gras guys, duck or goose liver after being force fed with corn
2. Balance, you are stalking Moosie - leave him be to work out the perils of the penny dreadfuls of the ASX for himself. He should have learned enough from his mistakes by now
3. Cease and desist applying corn through the Gavage immediately
4. Get back to the NZX threads where you belong
all said in the best possible taste
Xerof
21-02-2014, 08:16 AM
Well, Mick Jagger got an MBE and then went on to a knighthood, so there might be some merit in having one I guess:laugh:
samdaman
24-02-2014, 02:18 PM
any idea why? had a quick look at their half year and at first glance it doesn't look like any reason to be pushing this kind of buying pressure
Entrep
24-02-2014, 02:29 PM
See http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9362-Adeffective-Limited-(-quot-ABN-quot-)&highlight=Abn
samdaman
24-02-2014, 03:48 PM
Ah so this is just a continuation of that bombshell hmmmm YHD seems to have a really high margin if its before Depreciation and tax I reckon the actual profit of YHD side of things will be really low even negative if it's close to the amount of ammortisation that MBE suffers assuming they are subject to a similar structure (just taking them as an example where they are taking circa 1-1.5m non cash adjustments on a revenue of around $12m). CF's will see an improvement possibly later on as non cash adjustments are added back to that figure but as far as a $2.85m acquisition goes. I can't see too much positive in after a quick look.
And I mean it was a quick squiz! 15mins on my coffee break :)
Copper
24-02-2014, 06:55 PM
Announcement last week that they were buying a company with revenues conparable to MBE last year along with ~$1M profit to boot. Need to add up options and free float plus see margins to see if this is a true rerating of the company. Will do some homework tonight and hopefully start up another thread for them. Volume suggests its sustainable. HC must be on fire today if this action is happening!
Moosie....I bgt into this sometime back for some unknown reason at the time.Without any research and just looking at the recent announcements I would just buy the stock on gut feeling.These internet sales machines like 1-day.com owned by the Warehouse are easy to use fun sites.Just bgt a paint sprayer and an Ipad connecting thingamajig .But aside ,like Xero you can analyse till you bored stiff but the damn thing still goes up.The mad "chase a winner" punter scenario. I will be interested if you can analyse anything that copes with that lot.
kindest regards
Copper.
ps..it had a different name when I bought in,just recently so you may have already been interested in it in its earlier years.
winner69
24-02-2014, 08:30 PM
The way the world is going as explained by cartoonist Tom Fishburne
Is MBE into this totally integrated stuff?
As Google reported, 90% of people juggle different devices when working toward a goal. As they move between devices, they expect brand experiences to be seamless yet specific to the nature of the device.
Figuring out how to bring a brand to life consistently from the TV to the laptop to the tablet to the smartphone is tricky. The ANA and Nielsen recently predicted that multi-screen campaigns would account for 50% of media spend in 3 years. Yet it’s only 20% today.
http://tomfishburne.com/2014/02/multi-screen-marketing.html
He a really good guy that Tom. I had a beer with him years ago
Copper
24-02-2014, 08:43 PM
The way the world is going as explained by cartoonist Tom Fishburne
Is MBE into this totally integrated stuff?
As Google reported, 90% of people juggle different devices when working toward a goal. As they move between devices, they expect brand experiences to be seamless yet specific to the nature of the device.
Figuring out how to bring a brand to life consistently from the TV to the laptop to the tablet to the smartphone is tricky. The ANA and Nielsen recently predicted that multi-screen campaigns would account for 50% of media spend in 3 years. Yet it’s only 20% today.
http://tomfishburne.com/2014/02/multi-screen-marketing.html
He a really good guy that Tom. I had a beer with him years ago
Damn good. Like me if it's simple you go for it.ie .Internet shopping..If Shoply or ABN or whatever make things easy like our 1-day.co.nz then they have to succeed unless they stuff something up.People will shop with something until there's a stuff up.We will see.Moosie may put us off by statistics but while the boom goes on just ride it.IMHO.
biker
25-02-2014, 09:16 AM
Moosie....I bgt into this sometime back for some unknown reason at the time.Without any research and just looking at the recent announcements I would just buy the stock on gut feeling.These internet sales machines like 1-day.com owned by the Warehouse are easy to use fun sites.Just bgt a paint sprayer and an Ipad connecting thingamajig .But aside ,like Xero you can analyse till you bored stiff but the damn thing still goes up.The mad "chase a winner" punter scenario. I will be interested if you can analyse anything that copes with that lot.
kindest regards
Copper.
ps..it had a different name when I bought in,just recently so you may have already been interested in it in its earlier years.
Must confess i did the same Copper. Not the way I usually operate but took a scattergun approach to a few stocks in this area and so far so good. Hold SHP (bought as APN),MBE,PAB,SNK. Mainly made good by MBE bought at 7c
Copper
25-02-2014, 10:08 AM
Must confess i did the same Copper. Not the way I usually operate but took a scattergun approach to a few stocks in this area and so far so good. Hold SHP (bought as APN),MBE,PAB,SNK. Mainly made good by MBE bought at 7c
Good grief you must be an identical twin brother....(as long as that's PEB and not PAB),what a coincidence.regards...
biker
25-02-2014, 12:21 PM
Good grief you must be an identical twin brother....(as long as that's PEB and not PAB),what a coincidence.regards...
Hahaha. Yes, that is PAB. I have PEB but had much more of a handle on it than the others!
winner69
26-02-2014, 04:04 PM
MBE looking like a bit of a dog at the moment.
The half year and the other announcement done little to excite the punters
Might be time to lighten up and take more profits
samdaman
26-02-2014, 04:37 PM
do you mean HY Moose?
samdaman
26-02-2014, 05:56 PM
Yup I'm with ya now. heck I hope the price keeps dropping, makes it more appealling for fullahs keen for a longer run
Here's the NYC presentation
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20140228/pdf/42n2636wklp2n6.pdf
The Big Ease
01-03-2014, 11:27 PM
what does the report define as MBE's industry?
Advertising?
Sales?
Technology?
I have just found this excellent Report on the Direct Carrier Billing landscape, across the globe.
It details the Pros and Cons, Who the players are, and how needs to happen for DCB to go to the next stage.
It's a must read if your an MBE fan.
http://www.businessinsider.in/Carrier-Billing-Why-Its-Becoming-An-Increasingly-Popular-Way-To-Pay-On-Phones-Worldwide/articleshow/30956234.cms
In it, theres an interesting table detailing the CDB relationships that google has in many countries for it's Google Play store.
And wow ->
We believe the global market for digital goods purchased on mobile devices reached $28 billion in 2013, and expect it to increase by 160%, to $73 billion by 2017.
This the core market for carrier billing, but the data suggests that carrier billing accounted for only a 12% share of mobile digital content purchases in 2013.
One reason is that Apple doesn't allow carrier billing in volume as a payment method on the App Store or iTunes.
This is significant considering that the App Store generated $10 billion in revenue in 2012 (https://www.apple.com/pr/library/2014/01/07App-Store-Sales-Top-10-Billion-in-2013.html).
Still, carrier billing will grow quickly from $3 billion in 2013, and rise 333% to $13 billion by 2017.
That growth rate will push carrier billing's share of mobile digital goods purchases to 22% by 2017.
Here's a summary, but the entire report is a thrilling read ;)
THE BOTTOM LINE
Carrier billing allows mobile users to buy digital goods like ring tones, music, apps, e-books, and in-app purchases by adding the cost of the purchase directly to their mobile bills.
Thought it's often associated with emerging markets, carrier billing companies actually make most of their money in developed markets like North America and Europe.
But carrier billing's huge opportunity is to help carriers and developers monetize mobile users in the developing world.
How big is the opportunity? Right now, we estimate that carrier billing powers $3 billion in mobile transactions, which accounts for about 12% of the global market for mobile digital content. In 2017, we think carrier billing will up this share to 22%, for $13 billion in mobile transactions.
Carriers are beginning to lower their once-prohibitive fees for powering carrier billing transactions in the hopes of seeing revenue explode as more people adopt it as a payment method.
The holy grail for carrier billing is to reduce rates low enough so that people adopt it as a method for purchasing physical goods via e-commerce sites and apps.
winner69
03-03-2014, 02:24 PM
In spite ofyour efforts Moosie and cheering us up every now and again things not going to plan are they.
Was 30 just prior the half year and it all been downhill since
Down 15% since and no end in sight.
I took some more profits on Friday afternoon (3rd time) ..... trying to see the benefit in letting the others run. I'd rather be all in or all out but when you got in the 2's fine tuning things seems OK
In spite ofyour efforts Moosie and cheering us up every now and again things not going to plan are they.
Was 30 just prior the half year and it all been downhill since
Down 15% since and no end in sight.
I took some more profits on Friday afternoon (3rd time) ..... trying to see the benefit in letting the others run. I'd rather be all in or all out but when you got in the 2's fine tuning things seems OK
It almost looks like it's in the beginning of a pattern. If we see some gentle upside in the next week and a half, then I think it could rocket to past 30c based soley on a technical standpoint - for this i'd like it not to close below 25c.
Entrep
03-03-2014, 02:49 PM
Under its 50 day MA now - short term trend is down, don't see any need to rush to buy atm.
tosspot
03-03-2014, 03:23 PM
If you're out I'd say stay out and see if support at 25 holds. big buys coming in around this level so might do. I'm holding my ground as I don't want to miss the next rocket up.
All you gave to do to reassure yourself of MBE is look at others revenue and losses (eg ADJ, MKB, MNW), then at mcaps and realise it's a winner.
Short term bearish, long term bullish :)
exactly my thougths, has to go up in the long run, and when it does it shoots
Under its 50 day MA now - short term trend is down, don't see any need to rush to buy atm.
Yep, last time it was under it, it started a gentle climb and then exploded.
Actually, not only that, but all my other MAs are in the same position as last time when It started to power up. So if this is a pattern of the foreseeable future, we should see gentle upwards (1c to 0.5c per day) moves higher over the next 1.5 - 2 weeks... Although, with no news due, the odds aren't on our side.
winner69
03-03-2014, 07:14 PM
It almost looks like it's in the beginning of a pattern. If we see some gentle upside in the next week and a half, then I think it could rocket to past 30c based soley on a technical standpoint - for this i'd like it not to close below 25c.
Well Pods it closed below 25
Now close to being 20% down from pre half year Ann price.
Things seem to be getting worse pretty fast - doubt even if one of moosies announcements will even work here.
Might just hock the rest off tomorrow
samdaman
03-03-2014, 07:45 PM
and as far as market sentiment goes the depth is in favour of the bears, a lot more sellers and volume trying to get out then in. Personally I think hold off for a while but I can see great things coming for this one.
skiver
04-03-2014, 12:41 AM
Hey guys, sorry I'm late to this MBE thread, but I'm a long time follower but first time poster. I also enjoy these discussions more than those on HC, generally more informed.
I have to admin that I was a little disappointed that the NY presentation didn't include any O/S revenues. That being said, I don't believe that the company are withholding it without reason.
Here are the facts.
1. MBE have great growth and they are profitable: Look at it this way, if you never knew of MBE and looked at the shares today, this would be a great time to buy. This is similar to the time it was at 19c in December.
2. There are a few more connectivity partners going to be announced very soon with a potential to increase total coverage to 150m customers.
When you realise how the M-advertising model works you will understand how growth does not require heavy marketing expenses. I know this because I've been working in the media industry for nearly 10 years and I'm currently in advertising and communication.
Think of the telcos as having a pool of customers. The more connectivity partners MBE has the greater the potential revenue they can generate. The way they generate revenue is through two means, successful advertising campaigns and sucessfully completing payment transactions from inapp purchases, app purchases and advertising.
Next think of MBE as collaborators with advertising agencies. They develop campaigns with working knowledge of how to engage target demographics. This is where their strength lies. Not only are they able to buy and manage cheap media space, they are able to create targeted creative advertising that are engaging and successful. Think of their tool as a sophisticated sieve able to filter the giant pool of customers and generate sustainable revenue. They have undoubtedly demonstrated that in Australia, they are able to generate revenue that is quite profitable.
Sure the SP looks bearish now, but the future is so so bright right now. If you ask me, it is the brightest it has ever been.
What's in store in the very near future?
1. New connectivity partner that will enable broader coverage. I believe this is either T-mobile or Verizon Wireless in the US. I think we will see another arm of Singtel as a connectivity partner soon.
2. Expansion through annuity agreements with agencies, with a larger advertising network and targeting skills, they will win more advertising contracts as they have stated in their report that there are multiple agreements and not just one in the pipeline.
3. Revelation of OS revenues: Once this cat is out of the bag there will be a subsequent movement in SP depending on the figures.
5. Expansion through conversion and natural mobile market growth. Let's not forget that this is one of the largest growing industries in any sector right now. We are in the middle of a massive growth phase and MBE are in a prime position to take advantage of this. With constant development and current trajectory I think they are well on their way up.
Joshuatree
04-03-2014, 07:49 AM
Great first post , welcome lurker turned contributor:)
Well Pods it closed below 25
Now close to being 20% down from pre half year Ann price.
Things seem to be getting worse pretty fast - doubt even if one of moosies announcements will even work here.
Might just hock the rest off tomorrow
It's not exactly panic stations yet, but I hope they don't go lower. Today will have to be the day we see some small upside - which is quite likely after a 1.5c drop according to recent history. I'm hopeful from here on the climb will start.... and not a good start to the day.
skiver
05-03-2014, 10:04 AM
I think Bango is similar but not really. Whilst Bango is a payment solution and analytical company, MBE is that and an advertising company. I think if MBE was just a payments company, there would be little POD between the other companies in this sector.
The advertising side of the business should see growth as its ad network develops and 4th screen advertising has a lot of international recognition. Furthermore, the mobile advertising sector is only going to grow in folds between now and 2017 at least. I do agree that the charts look similar.
Is there any idea why MNW and MBE seem to be loosely pegged?
Entrep
05-03-2014, 10:27 AM
AFAIK MBE's advertising business loses money and accounts for only 25% of revenue. Also to be fair mobile advertising companies are a dime a dozen. I think the real growth potential is in mobile payments.
Appears MKB, MNW, MBE make moves together as the sector ebbs and flows on the radar.
I am seeing a potential for a reversal of the downtrend today as the charts read oversold and I see a nice little hammer from yesterday. looking for high volume up day today or this week to confirm (some good news would help as well!) :)
Well, as I said the last few days, if you look at the chart from 9th of December, Yesterday is equivalent to the 9th of December. Thus if we we finish 1c or 1.5 higher today, we're equivalent to the 10th of December. At that time, we saw 1c up, 0.5c down for 6 days. It shouldn't happen exactly like that again, but I think if we can maintain a change in sentiment at least for the next 3 days, then we should start to see some break outs after a week or 2.
Happy for you to be right here Pods. And they say history never repeats eh?
Although I did notice that it's only down 26% as apposed to 33% on December 9th. :/
It definitively does. I'm not as bigger fan of the technical side of things as I am the fundamentals, but I believe I does influence a lot of people out there and so that will influence the market its self.
Also volume is very low.
winner69
05-03-2014, 02:50 PM
Pods I admire your optimism as well as your pattern recognition
They say 'what goes up must come down' and that has been proved a couple of time with MBE. But then Mr Newton said to every action there is an equal and opposite reaction but if an external force comes along the reaction might be bigger than the original action. Also there are many who believe patterns and things you see in nature also are seen in price movements - waves and cyclical trends are such instances.
Forget this claptrap - what I think you are trying to tell is that MBE is going to hit a $ sometime but the way there is going to be a series of waves, with each wave getting bigger than the previous one. Just like I am seeing on the South Coast of Wellington at the moment. T
A little picture - is this what you are trying to tell us
winner69
05-03-2014, 03:56 PM
Been thinking of making an Elliott Wave chart for MBE, but I don't really believe in it and it clutters up my other lines on the charts :p
I think too many of the rules would be broken if we tried to construct an Elliot Wave
Probably just need to pretend and visualise one an hope for the best
Pretty pathetic volumes today .....but at least an uptick on the chart
But wouldn't mind a heavy volume down day with close higher than the bottom ...like a decent capitulation
Pods I admire your optimism as well as your pattern recognition
They say 'what goes up must come down' and that has been proved a couple of time with MBE. But then Mr Newton said to every action there is an equal and opposite reaction but if an external force comes along the reaction might be bigger than the original action. Also there are many who believe patterns and things you see in nature also are seen in price movements - waves and cyclical trends are such instances.
Forget this claptrap - what I think you are trying to tell is that MBE is going to hit a $ sometime but the way there is going to be a series of waves, with each wave getting bigger than the previous one. Just like I am seeing on the South Coast of Wellington at the moment. T
A little picture - is this what you are trying to tell us
Your putting words in my mouth aren't you.
I'm only looking forward for the next few weeks at the moment - looking at the chart - again I don't totally trust Technical Analysis, but I find it fascinating. I'd thought by the half year, 40c would be a good target.
I was just looking at an old favourite of mine, RFL. They make finance software. In their most recent results, their revenue, grew by 40% compared to the corresponding half year. Their net profit was $1.1m on revenue of $9.53m. They're shareprice, at this time is 40c. Their 52 week low is 13c. They have 261 Million shares outstanding. All things being equal, you'd expect RFLs shareprice to be relatively higher than MBEs, however the number of outstand shares in RFL is only -15.06% lower than MBEs whilst the shareprice, at current level is approx 60% higher.
When you factor in MBE's Net Profit of 1.76m (Greater than RFLs half year) on $9.6m in revenues and the fact MBE grew it's revenues 65% compared to RFLs 40% then MBE is grossly undervalued on fundamentals. It also tells me, the Market doesn't have much faith in MBEs growth or possibly it's ability to retain it's current customers - that's the only thing I can think that would make the market under value MBE so much. I guess being relatively new to the B2B model, this might be warrented. Perhaps the market is just looking for further justification that Yes, existing customer are staying and new customer are coming.
So if RFL is a benchmark, then 40c is just a matter of time, and probably not too much.
And this is just on MBEs current Australian operation - not the Singtel or Sprint deal which are yet to delivered revenue.
Pretty disappointing end to the day given it's good start. However I did notice the sellers drop off by a good percentile. If that happens again tomorrow, it could help push the stock higher.
steve fleming
05-03-2014, 11:36 PM
Pods - interesting comparison between RFL and MBE.
I hold both, and i'd say a key difference between the two is their investor relations. If you look at any RFL presentation there is a well articulated strategy, detailed product descriptions and competitive positioning, commentary around key revenue, cost and margin drivers, as well as detailed short term guidance, and medium term target growth rates. Far more of an open book, whereas MBE there is still a degree of mystery about the stock, and as a result lots of doubters still around.
Generally, RFL seems to provide far more investor friendly information and commentary, as a result, RFL has far more institutional support, and less short termers who seem to enjoy playing with MBE's share price.
I understand that MBE's management has taken a low-key approach, getting on doing their business, and just letting the numbers do the talking, but if it wants to improve its register it needs to do more than that.
Interestingly, both MBE and RFL were both mentioned by Peter Esho on YMYC as being examples of small cap companies where Management have proven their ability to very well execute their strategic objectives.
steve fleming
06-03-2014, 09:59 AM
Pods - interesting comparison between RFL and MBE.
Generally, RFL seems to provide far more investor friendly information and commentary, as a result, RFL has far more institutional support, and less short termers who seem to enjoy playing with MBE's share price.
I understand that MBE's management has taken a low-key approach, getting on doing their business, and just letting the numbers do the talking, but if it wants to improve its register it needs to do more than that.
This post from Mulgoa on h/c confirms the above:
"The turnover rate in the 12 months to date was 280.8% (or a turnover period of 4 months). This average length of ownership of the stock at 0.2 times the average holding period of 1 year 8 months for stocks in the S&P/ASX 200 Index suggests a larger number of speculators on the share register, making it less safe for long-term investors. - It is at a discount of 23.2% to the 12-month high of 34.50c on 13 Jan, 2014. It is also at a premium of 1,372.2% to the 12-month low of 1.80c on 24 Jun, 2013.source NABTRADE RESEARCH"
Its perfectly understandable for a stock that was a day trader plaything and that has come from 2c to 35c to have a pretty ordinary register.
Management needs to sell its story to a more sophisticated institutional shareholder base (rather than speculators/retail investors who cant see past monthly/quarterly results) to solidify its register and reduce the influence of the speculators - to do this Management need to be more transparent and give institutional investors confidence that this is a genuine long term story, with a clearly articualted strategy and that Management has the ability to execute.
MBE's Management has done really well so far to get the business profitable, fast growing and with great potential - but if it wants to be a genuine $100m + company, it needs to take it to the next step to get decent institutional support
Thanks Steve. What you've said makes perfect sense, and your quote from Mulgoa on H/C helps me feel vindicated that my position is correct.
It's good to see the sellers backing off today. Right in time too. I've noticed a few quite days allows buyers to gain more confidence. Should start to see some come back soon hopefully.
gazprom1
06-03-2014, 05:53 PM
Go Moosie!!
steve fleming
06-03-2014, 08:25 PM
From Borshk on h/c - i have no reason to doubt the accuracy, as he recently met with MBE management
"amazingly, MBE they have the FLAPPY BIRDS game on one of their recently launched platforms - "no limit games"
this platform launched Oct '13, provides HTML5 mobile games. the telcos love this -- means the punter is using more data by playing the game via the web, & the telco are getting the 30% fee for DCB purchases. subscribers paying $5/wk for unlimited play. platform currently has 18,000 subscribers, of which MBE profits $3 after all costs.
the other great thing is this allows MBE to reach iPhone users, as they bypass the Apple App Store by offering games on the web - huge plus!!"
search 'nolimitsgames.com' in your mobile browser...
flappy birds is the first thing you'll see once you've registered
18,000 x $3 per week x 52 = potential $2.8m profit per year (though obviously there will be churn and all customers won't stay for a year
I have no idea why MBE do not release this kind of info to the market???
steve fleming
06-03-2014, 09:42 PM
From Borshk on h/c - i have no reason to doubt the accuracy, as he recently met with MBE management
"amazingly, MBE they have the FLAPPY BIRDS game on one of their recently launched platforms - "no limit games"
this platform launched Oct '13, provides HTML5 mobile games. the telcos love this -- means the punter is using more data by playing the game via the web, & the telco are getting the 30% fee for DCB purchases. subscribers paying $5/wk for unlimited play. platform currently has 18,000 subscribers, of which MBE profits $3 after all costs.
the other great thing is this allows MBE to reach iPhone users, as they bypass the Apple App Store by offering games on the web - huge plus!!"
search 'nolimitsgames.com' in your mobile browser...
flappy birds is the first thing you'll see once you've registered
18,000 x $3 per week x 52 = potential $2.8m profit per year (though obviously there will be churn and all customers won't stay for a year
I have no idea why MBE do not release this kind of info to the market???
So i tested it out....too easy!!
The convey (MBE) billing platform allows pretty much a one touch subscription through my Telstra Mobile account, or alternately a Paypal payment option
$5.00 per week for unlimited access to the best mobile games
All very legitimate, with a free phone helpline if any issues
So MBE use their mobile advertising expertise and customer acquisition expertise to target potential purchasers of the games....with 18,000 current subscriptions obviously its pretty succesful
Quite happy to have had my first experience with the MBE (Convey) billing platform!
stoploss
06-03-2014, 09:50 PM
Steve ,looks like 18001 subscribers now !!!!! Moosies infectious enthusiasm is getting to me . Happy to hold but i want to buy more ……..
I don't want to give your hopes up, but I have a few questions bout this flappy bird.
1.Primarily, what is MBEs licence with regards to this product? They can't be making money off it just for free.
2. Is their licence just for Australia, or world wide?
3. What are the potential legal ramifications? Are there legal issues pending with this product? I heard there was, which resulted in many thinking that's why the product was pulled - even though the developer gave other reasons.
steve fleming
06-03-2014, 10:29 PM
https://info.singtel.com/personal/sites/personal/files/apps/NoLimitsGames_TnCs.pdf
Now available on Singtel as well!
"A membership subscription fee of S$5.00 is billed 1 time(s) every week. This will continue until you unsubscribe.
blocker3
07-03-2014, 11:53 AM
WALL STREET JOURNAL [11:29 NZST]
... Mr Putin went on to state that a (very) hostile takeover of Australian mobile ad company Mobile Embrace was on the cards since his forces had nothing better to do this weekend.
"We offer good terms of 15 cows, 7 flamboyant flamingoes and bucket of wheat and they say 'NO GOOD!'. I show them no good..."
The ADF and MBE were unavailable for comment. Apparently they were too busy doing things with dingos and kangaroos to worry about a future full of cheap vodka, plentiful Kalashnikovs and suicidal novelists.
*END*
Have you been hacked again Moosie ?
I wouldn't be surprised if people on hot copper were pumping the stock at particular moments to co-inside with good technical indicators - in order to get everyone on board at the "right" (technical) time.
If the run up in shareprice over yesterday or today is due to the flappy bird thing - OMG.
I wouldn't be surprised either, social media has a big role to play In the market these days. There's a few trading platforms out there right now claiming 80%+ success rates based on buy/sells/commentary based on fellow traders. Charts look to "clean" as well (precise up/down movements that are pretty predictable in hindsight...)
ehh GOD - 80%. Did not know about these.
There are downsides to them however
AP Twitter hack causes panic on Wall Street and sends Dow plunging
Market recovers after hackers tweeted from the official AP feed that two explosions had hit the White House
Share (https://www.facebook.com/sharer/sharer.php?u=http://www.theguardian.com/business/2013/apr/23/ap-tweet-hack-wall-street-freefall)25
inShare2
http://static.guim.co.uk/static/1488ac82355a130321aa986633c3803e8df7e643/common/images/icon-email.pngEmail (http://www.theguardian.com/business/2013/apr/23/ap-tweet-hack-wall-street-freefall#)
Heidi Moore (http://www.theguardian.com/profile/heidi-moore) in New York and Dan Roberts (http://www.theguardian.com/profile/dan-roberts) in Washington
theguardian.com (http://www.theguardian.com/), Tuesday 23 April 2013 20.41 BST
Jump to comments (61) (http://www.theguardian.com/business/2013/apr/23/ap-tweet-hack-wall-street-freefall#start-of-comments)
http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2013/4/23/1366742910169/Dow-Jones-twitter-008.jpg The panic, however brief, demonstrates how tightly intertwined Wall Street has become with Twitter. Photograph: Spencer Platt/Getty Images
Wall Street collided with social media (http://www.theguardian.com/media/social-media) on Tuesday, when a false tweet from a trusted news organization sent the US stock market into freefall.
The 143-point fall in the Dow Jones (http://www.theguardian.com/business/dowjones) industrial average came after hackers sent a message from the Twitter feed of the Associated Press (http://www.theguardian.com/media/associated-press), saying the White House had been hit by two explosions and that Barack Obama was injured. The fake tweet, which was immediately corrected by Associated Press employees, caused a sensation on Twitter and in the stock market.
White House officials were unimpressed. An AP reporter apologized for the Twitter hacking at the start of the daily White House press briefing, saying the tweet had been deleted as soon as it was discovered. A stoney-faced Jay Carney, Obama's personal spokesman, thanked the reporter but did not look amused. "The president is fine. I was just with him," added Carney.
The market recovered within a few minutes of the misunderstanding, but the incident left traders catching their breath and speculating once more about their vulnerability to breaking news in the age of social media. It also raised new questions over Twitter's security procedures.
Buyers now outnumbering sellers for MBE although not in the top 3 price points where it probably matters most.
Edit
----
Now buyers outnumber sellers in top 3 price points.
I had an account, but got stick of it pretty quickly and so deleted it. But now I cannot create an account using that email address - nor when I ask for them to send me my password does it actually send it to me :/ even though the system says it found me.
don't have time to read them but make of the subjects what you will, those threads have all been going since 05/03
5578
Joshuatree
07-03-2014, 01:10 PM
TBE;) promoting as usual on H/C although an int little tangent today"I know its completely unrelated, but look at how closely MBE's share price correlates with the movements of the Bitcoin price (http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg180ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zi1gMACDzi2gMomen tumzi3gSStochzv)
Almost an exact trace"
TBE;) promoting as usual on H/C although an int little tangent today"I know its completely unrelated, but look at how closely MBE's share price correlates with the movements of theBitcoin price (http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg180ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zi1gMACDzi2gMomen tumzi3gSStochzv)
Almost an exact trace"
bahaha, good work. That looks sooooo spooky.
Mid afternoon lull, huge volume. Look at the charts and you'll feel a bit better. This run has just started if she holds above 30 cents :)
That's pretty optimistic.
If today's closing price is low enough (28c -> 28.5c), then there is greater chance of some buying on Monday for slightly higher price. However if we close at closer to 30c, i'd expect to see some profit takers on Monday with some continued upswing after that.Actually, I guess a better way of saying it is, once we hit 30c or 31c closing price, i'd expect to see a down day. We saw it the first time we had a big swing but avoided it last time in favour of a small rise in the middle of a two bigs.
steve fleming
07-03-2014, 03:37 PM
I wouldn't be surprised if people on hot copper were pumping the stock at particular moments to co-inside with good technical indicators - in order to get everyone on board at the "right" (technical) time.
If the run up in shareprice over yesterday or today is due to the flappy bird thing - OMG.
Interesting theory, but to me Flappy birds is not the issue – there are dozens of other addictive-type games on the portal.
For me, to have actually seen first hand MBE’s business in action, makes me feel far more comfortable, seeing the Convey billing platform live
I like to try to put myself in the position of a fund manager attempting to convince an Investment Committee that this would be a good stock to own. Probably the first question the IC would ask would be how does MBE make money. Previously the answer would have been along the lines of it kind of makes money through mobile payments. Now, you could point to the mobile site, which states the $5 week subscription, model the Convey margins from this revenue and hopefully MBE would provide some guidance around the subscription levels (as they apparently did to the HC poster), growth through the roll out to Singapore (which can now be proved) etc – it makes the MBE story far more believable and understandable. I still don’t really understand the nature of the license MBE must be paying to the game developer though.
And this is just one of the MBE products available to subscribe to
MBE can be a rather mysterious stock - To me, this helps demystify the stock – I have no idea why MBE does not provide this level of detail to the market.
So far everything in that HC post stacks up, except for the number of subscribers which would be impossible to verify without input from MBE
It is starting to swing back in our favour.
steve fleming
07-03-2014, 08:21 PM
Anyone on HC able to tell us if there is any pumping going on? Love qqqq and his faithful stating of previous numbers over and over and over again like the company will never grow past this stage :)
I don't think qqqqqqq is quite right - few sheep short in the top paddock to be honest
Anyway, I have had him on ignore since I caught him copying posts from this share trader thread and copying them onto hot copper as if they were his own
steve fleming
07-03-2014, 08:26 PM
https://info.singtel.com/personal/sites/personal/files/apps/NoLimitsGames_TnCs.pdf
Now available on Singtel as well!
"A membership subscription fee of S$5.00 is billed 1 time(s) every week. This will continue until you unsubscribe.
Another MBE product on Singtel - Pro sports
https://info.singtel.com/personal/sites/personal/files/apps/ProSports_TnCs.pdf
The Singtel ProSports is a subscription membership that provides its members with a range of products, services and benefits through its web sites and wap sites to compatible handsets. This includes offering its members access to pro tips, stretches, news and deals on specific desired sports
Pay via Mobile is billed $3, 1 time(s) every 7 days plus any Standard Carrier charges apply.
steve fleming
07-03-2014, 08:58 PM
Another MBE product on Singtel - Pro sports
https://info.singtel.com/personal/sites/personal/files/apps/ProSports_TnCs.pdf
The Singtel ProSports is a subscription membership that provides its members with a range of products, services and benefits through its web sites and wap sites to compatible handsets. This includes offering its members access to pro tips, stretches, news and deals on specific desired sports
Pay via Mobile is billed $3, 1 time(s) every 7 days plus any Standard Carrier charges apply.
https://info.singtel.com/personal/apps-tv/apps?qt-mobile_apps_tv=1#qt-mobile_apps_tv
two of the 4 current Singtel Direct Carrier Billing products are operated by MBE......MBE's key advantage is their ability to utilise their trading desk to secure advertising spots and use their targeted advertising and customer acquisition and management expertise to ensure that they are targeting the mostly likely mobile customers
steve fleming
08-03-2014, 11:58 AM
https://info.singtel.com/personal/apps-tv/apps?qt-mobile_apps_tv=1#qt-mobile_apps_tv
two of the 4 current Singtel Direct Carrier Billing products are operated by MBE......MBE's key advantage is their ability to utilise their trading desk to secure advertising spots and use their targeted advertising and customer acquisition and management expertise to ensure that they are targeting the mostly likely mobile customers
Its interesting on the nolimitsgames portal, there is a special section for girls games - so thats probably one of the niches they are targetting in their marketing
It is actually a pretty fun site - gives you access to dozens and dozens of games, with more games being added all the time, you can track your high scores versus all the other community members, and see what all the other community members are playing and the scores they are getting
Most popular games at the moment appear to Dragon Dash and Red Riding Hood Run.....
I can see the addiction....just wonder how long the novelty will last
winner69
08-03-2014, 01:20 PM
Its interesting on the nolimitsgames portal, there is a special section for girls games - so thats probably one of the niches they are targetting in their marketing
It is actually a pretty fun site - gives you access to dozens and dozens of games, with more games being added all the time, you can track your high scores versus all the other community members, and see what all the other community members are playing and the scores they are getting
Most popular games at the moment appear to Dragon Dash and Red Riding Hood Run.....
I can see the addiction....just wonder how long the novelty will last
Dragon Dash and Red Riding Hood don't sound as muh fun as Knuckle Bones and Pick Up Sticks or just od Force Back. Jeez showing my age now
winner69
08-03-2014, 04:12 PM
Good game of bullrush never hurt anyone... :)
Bull Rush - surely not an app for that as well
winner69
10-03-2014, 07:48 PM
in case anyone is interested, I note that the charts have turned bullish again and that an uptrend channel has formed with an upper limit of 39 cents. (That is of course, without an announcement bouncing it higher). May play according to that...
Hope you right there moosie
Today wasn't that good a day was it ...mind you half of Australia ws on holiday
skeet
10-03-2014, 09:12 PM
Been watching this one the last few months, bought in today but should have done this when I first added it to my watch list.
Looks like an exciting year a head
Based on the Previous peaks, it's taken between 6 and 10 days to hit that peak from the run up. Our peak should be between 38.5 and 41c in this next phase from memory of intraday highs.
Take for example:
1. 10th of October, took 6 days close of it's small peak and then an extra 4 days for a slightly larger peak.
2. 20th of December, took approx. 10 days to close at the next peak.
The 6th of March was the first day of the beginning what looks like a new cycle. This is only the 4th day. So hopefully within the next 6 days we will see our peak at a low of 38.5. That is my purely technical analysis - not sure if i'm doing it right. ;) grabbing at straws maybe.
skeet
11-03-2014, 11:06 PM
Yeah I didnt buy at that price. I got confused as I bought and sold a number of stocks yesterday.
I bought ADO yesterday at 24 cents, edited my post accordingly! :)
winner69
12-03-2014, 03:10 PM
Based on the Previous peaks, it's taken between 6 and 10 days to hit that peak from the run up. Our peak should be between 38.5 and 41c in this next phase from memory of intraday highs.
Take for example:
1. 10th of October, took 6 days close of it's small peak and then an extra 4 days for a slightly larger peak.
2. 20th of December, took approx. 10 days to close at the next peak.
The 6th of March was the first day of the beginning what looks like a new cycle. This is only the 4th day. So hopefully within the next 6 days we will see our peak at a low of 38.5. That is my purely technical analysis - not sure if i'm doing it right. ;) grabbing at straws maybe.
I hear what you saying over the last few weeks with this visualisation of an outcome but I fear that a fair bit of hope built into it.
Hope not but 39/40 in a week or two just seems a bit too far fetched without some fantastic news coming out
I'd be more inclined to say 30 is tops for a while but even that seems some way off
Agree, it's not looking great, but things can and have swung upwardly very fast with no news before.
It may inevitably blow out the time it takes to get to the 38.5 mark by a couple of days, but i'm confident it can still happen.
I email'd the CEO about being involved with online streaming content such as movies and tv-series. In my email I explicitly mentioned Quickflix as an example. He responded that they're currently looking at opportunities to partner with such content providers as a way for their Convey platform to provide carrier billing - although this could have been just a general statement in that they're always looking for more content providers to add to Convey.
I also subsequently emailed Quickflix and was given a response by them that they are indeed in process of making carrier billing an option - this would actually get me more interested in Quickflix. If people can charge downloading of movies etc to their phone bill. It would help them substantially I believe given that Carrier billing is known to result in larger conversion rates.
Quickflix like companies and MBE could be very good for each other - given MBE's expertise in monetising digital content.
I'm not saying Quickflix and MBE are in bed together - but they are both looking at being involved in such projects with like service providers.
tosspot
12-03-2014, 07:08 PM
I email'd the CEO about being involved with online streaming content such as movies and tv-series. In my email I explicitly mentioned Quickflix as an example. He responded that they're currently looking at opportunities to partner with such content providers as a way for their Convey platform to provide carrier billing - although this could have been just a general statement in that they're always looking for more content providers to add to Convey.
I also subsequently emailed Quickflix and was given a response by them that they are indeed in process of making carrier billing an option - this would actually get me more interested in Quickflix. If people can charge downloading of movies etc to their phone bill. It would help them substantially I believe given that Carrier billing is known to result in larger conversion rates.
Quickflix like companies and MBE could be very good for each other - given MBE's expertise in monetising digital content.
I'm not saying Quickflix and MBE are in bed together - but they are both looking at being involved in such projects with like service providers.
If only we could change the quick to a net, shareprice would be crazy.
In terms of the dip I say bring it on ill happily double up if panic sets in. well be the ones laughing in a few months
skiver
13-03-2014, 12:23 AM
I certainly hope that the company release some more figures soon or announce a deal with another connectivity partner. Is anyone else abreast with the Sprint T-Mobile deal. Strange as it may sound, I think the merger will happen. Masayoshi seems quite determined. Even if it doesn't, it's not really a big deal for MBE at least.
The Connectivity partner in the US could also be either TMobile or Verizon since there is no level of exclusivity when it comes to DCB.
There is plenty of potential here and I hope it all goes well.
I certainly hope that the company release some more figures soon or announce a deal with another connectivity partner. Is anyone else abreast with the Sprint T-Mobile deal.
I did a quick google. The Sprint & T-Mobile thing is Waaaaaaaay off. Apparently the US Fed supered a previous deal to merge T-Mobile with another company or the same one in favour of keeping T-Mobile independent. I'm not sure why. T-Mobile and Sprint are the smallest operators in the US. Their combined userbase is still less than each of AT&T and Verizon.
Entrep
13-03-2014, 06:48 PM
Are you guys day trading this or investing in it? It's clearing in a trading range pending I don't know what and no amount of (over) analysis is going to change that.
Copper
13-03-2014, 08:06 PM
Are you guys day trading this or investing in it? It's clearing in a trading range pending I don't know what and no amount of (over) analysis is going to change that.
Agree most analysis lately has pointed to a rise in share price but it ain't happening and if it drifts further a new bunch of analysts will say it's going down.All appears hypothetical guesswork to me.....
The fundamentals are clear. You don't sell out of a stock with zero debt, which is profitable and revenues rising 65% HY on HY. Traders will trade in-between announcements. This is providing a nice range at which to buy more shares though.
samdaman
15-03-2014, 12:42 PM
ive put them at 15-16% but i think that was pretty optimistic. if you think they can realistically keep their margins from the HY then assume away but how do you know it's not just an anomaly?
samdaman
15-03-2014, 03:11 PM
yea my NPAT is around 2.8m for FY14 and it still shows undervalued by my DCF, so if a value of 3.5m NPAT came through I'd be reasonably happy to jump on board with MBE
steve fleming
15-03-2014, 05:41 PM
Pretty difficult to forecast for MBE, so I'll be interested to see the approach of the supposedly imminent broker report.
Simply, there are too many variables to provide any meaningful visibility on revenue, ie number of products that MBE can develop, take up of the products and country distribution channels are impossible to predict.
The current generation of MBE products ( thanks to the team in Vietnam) are a massive improvement over what they previously offered (which was pretty much spam SMSs), but it is just a matter of getting the products out there to the right audience (which is what MBE pride themselves on being able to do). When I log in to nolimitsgames ( which is pretty often!) there is a not normally a lot of members there, certainly not the 1000s mentioned by the hc poster, but it is pretty fun set up product, and I can see the benefits in trying to create a community feel to it...if it gets some traction, it could be really profitable for MBE. If they did $7m last 6 months selling crap products, that should improve massively with better products, but it's a pretty tough and fickle and competitive market, so who knows.
But good on you for having a go Moosie and putting your forecasts out there. The thought and analysis you do puts you at a huge advantage over those who just bludge and criticise.
skiver
15-03-2014, 06:12 PM
As much as I would like to believe that a broker report is on the horizon, I have to go with my logical side and say that unless I get credible sources saying so, I cannot really swallow that. I think it's more than likely however that we will see OS revenue before June 2014. I think 20m revenue is a great estimate moosie, but I think they can hit 22-23m with OS revenue factored in.
steve fleming
15-03-2014, 09:10 PM
I'm no expert so I throw numbers out there and expect some criticism so all good! Time will tell :)
Definitely keep it up Moosie. It's common to see Management of various companies get their own profit forecasts wrong by more than 30%, so there is no shame in you (without any of the inside knowledge of Management) getting forecasts wrong.
And as for ramping, if people are using your forecasts as a basis of investment decisions, with no ability to critically think for themselves, then they should definitely not be self directed investing.
And as for being young, grey hair does not give you a monopoly on investment expertise. Quite the opposite - the most successful investors I am coming across these days are usually well under the age of 40
winner69
16-03-2014, 11:58 AM
Turmeric
I have each quarterly sales higher than previous quarter (with an average growth of 15% Q on Q
I reckon both Q1 and Q2 (SF split) are >60% up on samr quarter a year prior
Sales number prior to 2013 FY a bit clouded by divested business
As I said last night there has been a step up in the revenue base. Like from a steady no/low period of 6,4m (June 12 half) /5,7m Dec 12 / 6,4m June 13 UP to Dec 13 Half Year of 9.5m
The business has made a step change and everybody says heaps more to be added to the business base. Maybe full year revenues 23m to 25m and NPAT of 3m to 5m .... which would make a 30 cent share price cheap
This step up to a much higher sales base is the key takeout from the report .... along with some pretty impressive cash flow and profit numbers
Maybe green screens analyst mates were right about MBE being a buck by end of year. In SNK language they are almost half way there
Must have been ramping when I said revenues to be 23m to 25m and npat 3m to 5m
Please forgive me
Whatever MBE been a dog since .....even a fantastic announcement tomorrow and a 20% gain only takes it back to the pre half year ann price
Are you guys day trading this or investing in it? It's clearing in a trading range pending I don't know what and no amount of (over) analysis is going to change that.
Investing. I was trading the stock around 2010/2011. But I started accumulating late 2011/2012 and I've been holding the majority of mine at 2c. I bought a few more as they were going up before they hit 10c.
The short term is a little frustrating, just like for so long when the company was sitting at 2c and I couldn't understand why people weren't valuing it. Same same!
skiver
18-03-2014, 06:28 PM
How young are you exactly?
The Big Ease
19-03-2014, 06:00 AM
MBE is ready for a spike IMO.
Everything resembles the pattern preceding the last leg up.
The markets are positive and it is clears skies for MBE.
I'll risk being the fool posting this in advance of the DJI close, but it looks like MBE will soon break 30c again.
The Big Ease
19-03-2014, 06:08 AM
double post.
If it doesn't happen in the next 2 days, we could be a long way off that spike. The same one we were talking bout last week. We're still in the same pattern. But any longer and I feel like the pattern will be broken. Must continue upwards today to keep it in check.
Also, we don't need an announcement. Not sure why everyone seems to think so. All we need is the sentiment and then some buyers to notice the stock. I don't think the big spikes we've seen were driven particularly by any one announcement. It makes sense that announcements would trigger something, but they've particularly done the opposite - especially the last 2 updates from the company. Did nothing at all.
Noticed today that some buyers moved their bids up 0.5c. There are still a few more sellers coming on as the opening approaches.
The Big Ease
19-03-2014, 10:31 AM
Interesting speculation on h/c that Cannacord is to shortly initiate coverage on MBE.
a decent broking report would give good credibility to MBE and an independent assessment of its business model
both MNW (Cannacord) and MKB (Fosters) re-rated strongly on the back of broker coverage
interesting that this rumour was floating about almost 2 months ago.
Still no report....it doesn't take that long to put together a research paper, especially when the company will feed you most of the information.
interesting that this rumour was floating about almost 2 months ago.
Still no report....it doesn't take that long to put together a research paper, especially when the company will feed you most of the information.
Yer I don't put much faith in that and never did. It doesn't worry me either way. The companies results speak for themselves.
Buyers appear to be leaving - but I think this may be an illusion. I've seen it before. Buyers will take their stock off the market, in favour of putting it back on at a potentially higher price. Today may be interesting.
good annoucements can be the catylist for a sentiment change.
Sure! I'm just saying we don't need it because MBE is undervalued relative to other stocks and the market will wakeup.
What do you know.... a broker report from Bell Potter appeared in a dimly lit corner of the MBE website today. It should make for some interesting post-work reading, and HC discussion when they pick up on it.
Enjoy
http://cdn.mobileembrace.com/uploads/mobileembrace.com/docs/mbe-bell-potter-securities-research-report.pdf
What do you know.... a broker report from Bell Potter appeared in a dimly lit corner of the MBE website today. It should make for some interesting post-work reading, and HC discussion when they pick up on it.
Enjoy
http://cdn.mobileembrace.com/uploads/mobileembrace.com/docs/mbe-bell-potter-securities-research-report.pdf
I'll post that ;)
It's interesting that Sprint is not mentioned in the report, even though Singtel is. Is that because the Analyst knows something we done?
winner69
19-03-2014, 04:49 PM
Sack those analysts - they only came up with 32 cents target
Take off the 20% optimism factor and heck today's price
Sack them ...no wonder hidden away on the MBE website
What a disappointment
baller18
19-03-2014, 04:50 PM
Hmmm if it doesn't break 30 centswill it fall back to the 25-29 range again?
The 32c is just for this year I think.
They don't really say what the price target should be if their revenues come true for FY15/16.
I also don't know why they think their revenue is not going to be as good as last HY. I see it progressing and perhaps bettering last half year. But i'm not an analyst :)
No wonder she's been spiking today. Close at or near daily high is bullish on high volume. Holding for more upside as 32 will now probably be the target :)
I think it'll be more. Market looks forward. 32c target is for full year 2014 - I think. It'll go > 35c as per our previous forcastes... then probably come back down to the low 30c haha.
steve fleming
19-03-2014, 09:11 PM
Yup, thank MS for it most likely.
Yep MS have been doing the damage on MBE - Over the last 4 weeks MS have been the biggest net sellers of MBE with 3.4m.
Biggest buyers have been Commsec (retail) with 3.5m, and more interestingly BBY with 2.4m – maybe they will be the next ones out with a broker report?
steve fleming
19-03-2014, 09:27 PM
“In Mobile Payments we forecast strong growth in the average number of transactions per week of 63% in FY14, 43% in FY15 and 28% in FY16. The key drivers of this forecast growth are greater penetration of existing apps (such as “NoLimitGames”),”
- With these sorts of numbers, I am struggling to understand when I go into 'nolimitsgames' why there are not that many users on it. To the point where I am actually on the leaderboard of a number of games including being ranked number 10 in Flappy Birds!!
steve fleming
20-03-2014, 12:30 AM
Just admit that the flappybird has now taken hold of your life Steve. it's ok, we're (mostly) non-judgemental on here... :)
Its true, i was pretty obsessed, but now I have a new addiction......Flappy Bird 2, its so much tougher!
Yep MS have been doing the damage on MBE - Over the last 4 weeks MS have been the biggest net sellers of MBE with 3.4m.
Biggest buyers have been Commsec (retail) with 3.5m, and more interestingly BBY with 2.4m – maybe they will be the next ones out with a broker report?
How does one find out this information? Why are morgan stanley getting out?
“In Mobile Payments we forecast strong growth in the average number of transactions per week of 63% in FY14, 43% in FY15 and 28% in FY16. The key drivers of this forecast growth are greater penetration of existing apps (such as “NoLimitGames”),”
- With these sorts of numbers, I am struggling to understand when I go into 'nolimitsgames' why there are not that many users on it. To the point where I am actually on the leaderboard of a number of games including being ranked number 10 in Flappy Birds!!
I would really like to see more content too. Is there just these two games?
I asked the CEO this the other day via email and all he gave me was NoLimitGames, when i asked for a list.
Seems slimilar to their SMS days to be honest, which stung a lot of people IIRC.
steve fleming
20-03-2014, 09:24 AM
I would really like to see more content too. Is there just these two games?
There are dozens of games on nolimitsgames, probably 50 or 60, new games are being added all the time
sudoku, old school arcade games, sports games, puzzle games - they are all there
The good thing about the site is there is no adverts, and the games are all easy to access/find all from the one site and they are trying to create a fun community feel to it
Its a pretty fun site, and I am happy to pay $5 a week for it
The Big Ease
20-03-2014, 09:28 AM
the landing page is ****e!
5602
5603
If they put up some images of the games and used a more enticing squeeze box for the phone number, they could actually drive traffic to the website and convert customers.
That is just a waste!
For me, their focus is a little too narrow - maybe that's good for a short time being. However i'd really want to see them launch their payments solution as an option for other businesses to use to process customer payments. The margin on those would be far lower, but if they can attract big organisations with a large customer base - like Boku has done with Google Play - then this companies growth will be phenomenal.
Sticking to the games has proven good so far, but I'm afraid it doesn't give the payment arm much diversification. Plus there are so many free games out there like the ones Steve has mentioned. How long before people realise that and use those instead?
The Big Ease
20-03-2014, 09:40 AM
they don't have a payments solution Pods. They use the services of another company + the carrier.
MBE is a marketing organisation with two arms - games development & mobile advertising.
I've posted about this a number of times on HC as it has been a persistent miscnception.
The Big Ease
20-03-2014, 09:40 AM
they don't have a payments solution Pods. They use the services of another company + the carrier.
MBE is a marketing organisation with two arms - games development & mobile advertising.
I've posted about this a number of times on HC as it has been a persistent miscnception.
steve fleming
20-03-2014, 09:46 AM
The thing is, if the analysts are right (and the revenues and cash flows support the numbers); and they are doing 50,000+ transactions a week, their marketing/advertising must be working very effectively
steve fleming
20-03-2014, 09:55 AM
The thing is, if the analysts are right (and the revenues and cash flows support the numbers); and they are doing 50,000+ transactions a week, their marketing/advertising must be working very effectively
"The weekly average was around 60,000 transactions in each of FY12 and FY13 though this has increased to over 90,000 in FY14" so some major growth being experienced
The Big Ease
20-03-2014, 10:06 AM
SF, where are you getting those numbers from?
I don't doubt their marketing is working.
But that page I put up can be improved significanty without too much effort.
they don't have a payments solution Pods. They use the services of another company + the carrier.
MBE is a marketing organisation with two arms - games development & mobile advertising.
I've posted about this a number of times on HC as it has been a persistent miscnception.
I never assumed that mobipay was theres. From my perspective, although it was never clear, I assumed they were licencing it from another company - although which company was never clear. If they're using it for their products, I don't see why they couldn't be a reseller of the platform.
Also, the Analyst report did say that mobipay was their platform and technology - which confused me a little.
Mobile Embrace is, amongst other things, a technology company that relies on its own technology (such as the
mobipay payments platform) as well as technical innovations (such as mobile apps)
So i'm not really sure what the analyst thinks "own technology" means.
blocker3
20-03-2014, 01:11 PM
Man these guys love playing with this stock. Why don't they just flip a coin and decide which house of iniquity and sin gets the cash pile?
Is the 3c reduction in the share price today as a result of the day traders Moosie? Im lost why the rapid decline.
blocker3
20-03-2014, 01:22 PM
I'd just blame it on MS, no idea why it's given up all its gains pretty much after a positive broker report. Trying to shake out the nervous nellies to buy more?.
Would MS really sell. ? Or has someone big also seen it as a time to take profits?
Damn there are a lot of sellers out there. Quite a few buyers too, but I don't think I've ever seen MBE have 150 sellers - as reported by COMSEC.
EDIT -
Ok that just dropped to 139 :/
On the upside. There is more interest in MBE than other similar companies such as MNW, MKB as is evident by the volume of trade.
The Big Ease
21-03-2014, 11:48 PM
Others have rightly pointed out that it is not news which drives the SP.
IMO it is set up for another leg up. Technically all set to go, just waiting for indicators to trigger.
The fundamentals will ensure it won't go much lower than it already has and it needs to break the resistance at 29-30c.
Makes ya wonder what will actually take it upwards if we knpw Singtel is now in play and the long awaited brokers report did a one day gap up. Should be a quarterly due in April/May but that's about it unless the company makes another contract or starts announcing OS revenue starting...
I wont be expecting a quarterly update sadly.... They don't have a history of giving quarterlies. They do however have a history of updating the market arbitrarily or when revenues are coming in faster than forecast IIRC. So unless we see the MBE resume operations in the US after their connectivity parter finishes their work or they announce similar partnerships with singtel owned and operated companies or other entirely unrelated companies, then i won't be expecting too much besides the usual speculation we're seeing now.
yep me thinks a capital raising is on the cards.
Ha! I thought it might just be the audited reports, but you are correct.
I wonder if they really need it though? I thought they would have had enough cash to go it alone - unless they want to raise a significant amount for major expansion -> across asia to take into account the Singtel deal? Mobile more sales people in the US?
This explains why the shares have been held < 30c. Wow. Such blatant Market manipulation. How does the ASX not see this? I.e The CR will be raised and shares issued at some price. The lower the stock price the lower the price per share used for the raising. **** that. If insto's want a big piece of our company they should pay a primo!
tosspot
24-03-2014, 12:37 PM
yea im so sick of this manipulation then insto only crap. our holdings get diluted while others benefit further
winner69
24-03-2014, 01:06 PM
The seaweed out on the deck has gone a funny colour .....not good
Talk on hotcopper of 11.75m capital raising. This has come from one person - but they have not stated were their information has come from.
Limited to sophisticated and high net worth investors so can't be that big and must be some potentially risky expansion stuff. Should keep the share price proped up above CR price as little guys won't be selling down prior the allotment.
Hopeful...
It can be.
At the last general meeting or maybe the one before that, they got permissions from SHs to be able to raise $$$ of an existing 10% on top of the 15% annual limit. That means they could raise up to 25% of their market cap in this funding.
Thanks to this:
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20131107/pdf/42kq3q3hz9vct7.pdf MBE could raise the
equivalent of 25% of their existing market cap.
ASX Listing rules with
respect to cap raisings:
http://www.jacmac.com.au/uploaded/News/publications/201208_New_Capital_Raising_Rules_for_ASX_Listed_Co mpanies.pdf
User littlecorn via HotCopper
Offer
· Raising $11.75m through 45.2m shares at
$0.26
· ~7% discount to 30 day VWAP
Capital Structure (pro
forma)
· Shares on issue ~368.3m (includes 45.2m placement
shares)
· Placement price $0.26
· Market Cap ~$97.6m
· Cash
~$13m (includes placement stock)
· Debt $0m
· EV
$84.4m
Timetable
· Bids due 5pm (AEST) Monday
March 24
· Recommences trading Wednesday March 26
· Settlement
Tuesday April 1
· Allotment date Wednesday April 2
Cheers Pods. Going to be a boring day and a half then!
damn straight!
winner69
24-03-2014, 05:03 PM
a strike price of 26cps is going to make it very difficult for the sp to get past 30cps.
Market has to get through a **** load of profit taking
That's what the seaweed is saying snaps .....not good
The Big Ease
24-03-2014, 08:56 PM
a strike price of 26cps is going to make it very difficult for the sp to get past 30cps.
Market has to get through a **** load of profit taking
Most capital placements are done at a bigger discount to the SP, yet many of them go on a very good run up in value after a placement.
It depends on the company and whether investors want to buy in.
Let's see if it is over-subbed.
baller18
24-03-2014, 09:24 PM
"In conjunction with the Placement two executives of the Company will undertake
a partial sell down of not more than 5 million shares each at the Offer Price
($2.6 million)" - from hotcopper
Directors selling out? Not a pretty look
skiver
24-03-2014, 09:39 PM
So many questions, but there are a lot more logical conclusions we can draw re. Share price and broker report preceding the CR.
IMO, this is a very strategic move. The company is growing well and there is not really a need for CR l, so the reason for the CR must be because of a couple of reasons.
1. Unexpected demand for shares post the NY presentation. For which they need to initiate broker coverage to facilitate and justify the CR and offer price. This is another reason it is only to sophisticated investors. It would also be in the companies best interests if the shares were allotted to a couple of holders with industry value. IMO, it smells like just this, this is another reason I am excited.
If the company just needed the money they could have issued an inclusive SPP or just a regular CR free-for-all at a discounted rate.
2. The company may take this opportunity to bank some extra cash for future growth especially for the next Telco partner / US.
I think if revenues are not as expected for the Second half FY14 it is not necessarily a worry as long as their targets are realistically met and growth continues.
What is most important right now is sustainable and constant growth with the industry in order to capitalize on the future growth of this sector. This is their plan so far and I can see the CR working towards this.
Why would 2 directors agree to a 10m sell dow? Well let's see, if I was a director of MBE (I wish) I would only sell down right now for one of two reasons.
1. If I needed to free up some much needed cash and truly believed that the CPS would drop in the LT.
2. If there was a buyer that wanted a significant cut of the company and the directors were hard pressed to not let them go and would sacrifice a pound of flesh for them.
I believe that there are a couple of big buyers here and the management have decided to leave it open to some buffer shares if a larger cut is requested.
Additionally, following the close this evening, I have heard from a trusted source that there are a couple of "heavy hitters" are going to join the register. Once again I encourage you to DYOR. This looks like better news than I initially thought.
My views are my own, please DYOR.
steve fleming
24-03-2014, 11:32 PM
Biggest buyers have been Commsec (retail) with 3.5m, and more interestingly BBY with 2.4m – maybe they will be the next ones out with a broker report?
So BBY got the gig to co lead the placement...I'd imagine they will put out their research after the raising.
The introduction of up to $14m of institutional funds onto the register will give MBE further credibility and is all part of the transition from a retail backed day trading stock to a more institutional backed investment grade stock. The transition is still far from complete but huge progress has been made.
DNA, which has pretty much come from the same place as MBE is now onto its third capital raise in 9 months, but has completely transformed its register, so it can be done.
pity the funds raised by MBE look like they are only being used for working capital - doesn't make it that exciting story to tell
Here is the details from BBY http://www.bby.com.au/assets/uploads/Files/MBE%20-%20Placement%20Deal%20Sheet%20(Private%20and%20Con fidential).pdf
There really are some either: smart, savvy, connected or lucky people on hot copper.
So BBY got the gig to co lead the placement...I'd imagine they will put out their research after the raising.
The introduction of up to $14m of institutional funds onto the register will give MBE further credibility and is all part of the transition from a retail backed day trading stock to a more institutional backed investment grade stock. The transition is still far from complete but huge progress has been made.
DNA, which has pretty much come from the same place as MBE is now onto its third capital raise in 9 months, but has completely transformed its register, so it can be done.
pity the funds raised by MBE look like they are only being used for working capital - doesn't make it that exciting story to tell
Ahhh DNA! I held them for years as TTV.
I only sold them as i got myself into a pickle with MBE... started day trading a little MBE when they were going up. When they hit 7c i started to buy more, but by that time they started heading down - so i bought on the slide, all the way down to 5.8c. I bought a lot - couldn't pay for them, so i ended up selling half and keeping the other half - which meant i had to sell DNA at 40ish cents - i think i learnt a lesson from that... which was i should have sold DNA to buy MBE much earlier - I.e when they were 2c. I had thought of it, cause i knew MBE would be worth at least 10c by ... now but was also pretty sure DNA would go well - It's a CASINO! :D
gazprom1
25-03-2014, 07:38 AM
CR @ 26 cents is IMHO not too bad and will support the register.
Gaz
winner69
25-03-2014, 08:14 AM
The company itself could have been a bit more communicative about what's going on beyond just asking for a trading halt
Seems nothin is secret so why they not communicating
Another company where (smaller) shareholders are just a burdensome necessity ...not good....we know place in life eh
stoploss
25-03-2014, 09:15 AM
The company itself could have been a bit more communicative about what's going on beyond just asking for a trading halt
Seems nothin is secret so why they not communicating
Another company where (smaller) shareholders are just a burdensome necessity ...not good....we know place in life eh
It does say trading halt , pending a capital raising ...
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20140324/pdf/42nkt80x197r6x.pdf
winner69
25-03-2014, 10:02 AM
It does say trading halt , pending a capital raising ...
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20140324/pdf/42nkt80x197r6x.pdf
Silly me
I didn't get past the first page
steve fleming
25-03-2014, 10:21 AM
Mobile Embrace launching AUD 14.35m placement, funds partially for acquisitions
Mobile Embrace [MBE:AU], an Australia-based mobile payments and mobile marketing company, along with two company executives are raising up to AUD 14.35m from the sale of the company’s shares, according to a term sheet seen by this news service.
The company will offer investors 45.2m new shares, representing 15% of its existing share capital, at AUD 0.26 each, the term sheet shows. As part of the offering, two executives could sell up to 5m secondary Mobile Embrace shares each with the same offer price, subject to the completion of the new share offering.
The new share offering could allow the company to reap AUD 11.75m, while the selldown could be worth around AUD 2.6m.
The offer price represents a 2% discount to the last closing price of AUD 0.265 per share on 21 March.
The net proceeds of the offer will be used for business expansion, new market entries with existing and new partners through organic growth and strategic acquisitions. The rest will be slated for general working capital, according to the term sheet.
BBY is a joint lead manager responsible for the international placement. Blue Ocean Equities is managing the domestic placement.
Mobile Embrace has a market cap of AUD 85.6m.
mergermarket.com
The company itself could have been a bit more communicative about what's going on beyond just asking for a trading halt
Seems nothin is secret so why they not communicating
Another company where (smaller) shareholders are just a burdensome necessity ...not good....we know place in life eh
I was talking to my father last night about this. WTF is wrong with MBE when we have to learn about this stuff via HotCopper!?!
Steve, obviously someone has read the BBY PDF and are simply giving their opinion as 'news'. I would hope this money is being used to facilitate some aggressive expansion in the US - probably a result of further connectivity partners (whateva that means - are these the Telco's or other entities like businesses who have products that could be sold using mobipay?) or indeed across Asia through Singtel subsidiaries.
I'd love an acquisition - but I don't know if $14m is going to cut it.
I've thought for a while that SNK or Big Mobile would make for interesting mergers/acquisitions.
Copper
25-03-2014, 06:59 PM
I was talking to my father last night about this. WTF is wrong with MBE when we have to learn about this stuff via HotCopper!?!
Quite frankly it's no different from any other Company.If you deal with the broker involved you would know days before .It's the circles the Companies are involved with unfortunately.HC is just the sounding board for those who think they are ahead of the pack.IMHO.Probably heard from a cousin who was fishing with a nephew who knew the CEO who was sworn to secrecy but had a wink.
baller18
26-03-2014, 11:23 AM
Looking pretty impressive huh moosie?
Lets see if the G word has any impact on the SP!
Not much different to the other investment presentations though.
stoploss
26-03-2014, 11:55 AM
here it is ...
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20140326/pdf/42nmby68tfgr0t.pdf
trades again @ 12.15 PM
steve fleming
26-03-2014, 01:52 PM
Not much different to the other investment presentations though.
IMO a much better effort
Presentation was tighter, shorter and less waffle than in the past.
Slide 8 was a new slide that succinctly illustrates the m-payments business
Hadn’t seen the Google wallet offering before either.
And the guidance with the assumptions around a weaker Q3 and no offshore revenue is obviously a new slide
A far tighter presentation aimed at the sophisticated audience
Steady as she goes mooise. No real big insights from announcements.
winner69
27-03-2014, 03:54 PM
Not really going to plan is it guys
May have done its dash?
Not really going to plan is it guys
May have done its dash?
There is very little driving it. That's all.
It's not far off fair value. To go higher we need MBE to say: "Singtel is On and generating revenue". Or "Sprint is On and generating revenue" - as all forecasts have only taken into account Australian revenue.
Some news like that would take us to 40c in my opinion.
To go higher we would need more than once source of Overseas revenue or that their connectivity partner in the US has allowed them to tap the resources of T-Mobile, AT&T and Verizon as well and not just Sprint as originally planned.
The Big Ease
28-03-2014, 08:31 PM
Not really going to plan is it guys
May have done its dash?
It looks like an ascending triangle to me (http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Stock&symb=au%3Ambe&time=8&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=1%2F6%2F2014&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=4&lf2=32&lf3=65536&type=64&style=350&size=4&x=60&y=11&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11)
Let's see how it plays out.
steve fleming
29-03-2014, 11:06 AM
Numbers playing 'nolimitsgames' seem to be picking up quickly - maybe Singtel has come online?
'My Candy' which appears to be a Candy Crush rip-off seems to be really popular
steve fleming
29-03-2014, 11:35 AM
Haha take it away from the recent King IPO and give it to us eh?
Where are you getting these numbers from Steve? Be much appreciated if you could share :)
Nothing official Moosie, just my feeling based on numbers logging in, recording high scores etc....just monitoring general site activity!
winner69
31-03-2014, 01:57 PM
mbe just broke major support levels and broke through trend line.
Time to bolt me thinks.
Wasn't meant to do that snapiti seeing it go so much promise
I gave up last week and cashed up what I had left. Best trade for years it was that quick rise from 2-3 cents
Think I'll leave it in cash as maybe this is the start of the big downturn
tosspot
31-03-2014, 03:45 PM
It would be insane to sell now. Would be selling on the lows. Just remember how fast things can turn. patience will be rewarded. nothing has changed apart from holding alot more cash. which on the current model will produce alot more than what they raised
winner69
01-04-2014, 12:42 PM
doesn't look like today is going to be a very good day either for mbe
Yer Skiver has said today or tomorrow. Skiver sounds like he knows peeps in the business ;)
Announcement coming through. Yet Another Investor Presentation (YOIP).
skiver
02-04-2014, 08:26 PM
Today's investor presentation was used at the Blue Oceans Equity presentation. Just a heads up.
Longhaul
02-04-2014, 08:29 PM
I wonder if people were impressed with the number of Angry Birds images used on slide 10? (I counted, it was 8).
skiver
02-04-2014, 08:45 PM
Hey pods, sadly my news base extends to what's available to media outlets additionally, I have to be clear that I have no inside information and my views do not represent any entity other than my own. I have a good network but we're only as informed as much as the market is, mostly. ;)
Hey pods, sadly my news base extends to what's available to media outlets additionally, I have to be clear that I have no inside information and my views do not represent any entity other than my own. I have a good network but we're only as informed as much as the market is, mostly. ;)
Haha, I wasn't saying you had inside information, just that, as you said, good networks, people in the finance industry etc. Well that's just what it looks like.
Entrep
05-04-2014, 04:04 PM
If the last pieces of good news haven't driven the price up, and instead its firmly in a technical downtrend, why would future good news be any different? Good news is often used by traders as a time to hide more selling/shorts.
winner69
07-04-2014, 12:26 PM
Haven't said it's in a technical downtrend (yet). I've done my homework and definitely believe this company has nothing but growth, profitability and big scores ahead. Why I would sell now I have no idea!
Even you moosie probably agree it is in a downtrend now
Getting pretty messy
tosspot
07-04-2014, 12:55 PM
Short term pain long term gain. Aint going to miss out when the company releases a market update after this tech sell off is done. Im assuming we will hear something by the end of this month, seems very feasible
winner69
07-04-2014, 01:28 PM
Not going to be very pretty next week as the Nasdaq tanked. Looking at the charts, long term uptrend has been broken and a consolidation/falling channel is now forming. Short positions on MBE going up as well, over a million on short now:
http://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=Mbe
Considering buying more if we see a drop to around 20. Charts can tell you quite a bit, but they can't anticipate good news announcements ;)
At this rate might get your wish
I might even join you at 20 ....only on the rise from 17/18 that is
GizyGold
07-04-2014, 03:23 PM
“Some parts of the high-tech space were looking bubbly and overvalued, so there’s some much needed profit-taking going on,” said Masaru Hamasaki (http://topics.bloomberg.com/masaru-hamasaki/), a senior strategist at Tokyo-based Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management Co., which oversees about 11 trillion yen ($107 billion). “The rout won’t last long, especially considering the U.S. economic recovery is firm. There may be some change where the sell-off in overvalued shares leads to flows into undervalued sectors.”
Mobile Embrace i reckon good buying around 20cents, lucky they have completed capital raising and lots of cash to become really profitable over next few years. If only I had a few grand, be keen to top up.
GizyGold
08-04-2014, 11:40 AM
fark MBE sholud get hammered today.
they urgently need an annoucement aye to stablise. 20cents is bargain, you reckon it is the holders that brought in a year ago and now are selling for profit?? surely the the investors from capital raising wouldnt be selling for 20% plus losses... MBE and MKB look pretty bad in the porfolio dam it! Pantience but surely the astute investors being accumulating more MBE.
GizyGold
08-04-2014, 11:40 AM
fark MBE sholud get hammered today.
they urgently need an annoucement aye to stablise. 20cents is bargain, you reckon it is the holders that brought in a year ago and now are selling for profit?? surely the the investors from capital raising wouldnt be selling for 20% plus losses... MBE and MKB look pretty bad in the porfolio dam it! Pantience but surely the astute investors being accumulating more MBE.
GizyGold
08-04-2014, 01:13 PM
cheers Mossie, yeah if company can double or triple profit end of year then booom good buying in low 20cents especially with 10-15mill in bank to fuel the growth. Then you compare to Rubik who valued at close to 150mill and now in trading halt needing more capital...
At the current share price, fully diluted, I have a FY15 P/E ratio of 10. And that's only using the official forecast and figures we know are set in stone, let alone anything to come in the near future or 6 months from now!
Who ever said the market was forward looking eh?
Moosie, the market is forward looking, but who said it was rationale? :D
GizyGold
09-04-2014, 08:42 AM
Two days of red then buy up. Nasdaq futures suggest this isn't over yet.
hopefully some action today on the tech stocks - your dead cat bouce looking good.....:D
tosspot
09-04-2014, 07:09 PM
yip it even makes me angry. watching my 50% gain deteriorate to nothing today over 6 3 months of madness. Im really struggling to find the motives behind selling down to this low
blocker3
09-04-2014, 07:12 PM
I give up for now, irrationality obviously rules the roost. No point arguing with Mr Market. Will keep watching (and holding) but no use arguing til you're blue in thr face. Will post again when something changes!
Moosie. I have read your post on this site over the last few weeks. At the moment I do not hold MBE but I still am still stuck with MKB. A company in the same field but not in the drivers seat as MBE.
Your experienced knowledge of the share market will shine here on your values of MBE. Just give it time . You will win big time in the long term. MARK MY WORDS. Cheers Blocker
winner69
11-04-2014, 12:31 PM
Looks like 20 will hold this time around
Capitulation last one around was 17.1 .......maybe next week ...then I can repurchase my shares plus more sub 20 on the way up
Good plan?
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