HLG - Hallenstein Glasson

[Arbroath]

W69,

I like you're chart. Also agree that profitability is slowly deteriorating across cycles as the factors the company management and you mention have an effect. If they deliver $10m I've no doubt the share price would be c. $2.50 or lower sometime next year. In that scenario they'd still pay out 100% of earnings (balance sheet has no gearing) which would be $0.17cps but that would be a poor investment in anyone's eyes (negative total return).

However, I'm just not prepared to be as bearish as you just yet. HLG management have done a great job over the years, and I note electronic spending was out today with strength driven by spending on hospitality and clothes - the Xmas season is crucial as it is every year. If they can deliver $15m in this environment that would be a strong result and see a dividend of c. $0.25 fully imputed which on $3.30 is a gross yield of 10.5%. They need to deliver 9-10% yields given the industry and all its risks.

Lets put a pint on it - they make $13m+ I win, under $13m you win. I'll still be able to fund the beer as HLG is 8% of my rather concentrated portfolio of 9 stocks....

[winner69]

W69,

I like you're chart. Also agree that profitability is slowly deteriorating across cycles as the factors the company management and you mention have an effect. If they deliver $10m I've no doubt the share price would be c. $2.50 or lower sometime next year. In that scenario they'd still pay out 100% of earnings (balance sheet has no gearing) which would be $0.17cps but that would be a poor investment in anyone's eyes (negative total return).

However, I'm just not prepared to be as bearish as you just yet. HLG management have done a great job over the years, and I note electronic spending was out today with strength driven by spending on hospitality and clothes - the Xmas season is crucial as it is every year. If they can deliver $15m in this environment that would be a strong result and see a dividend of c. $0.25 fully imputed which on $3.30 is a gross yield of 10.5%. They need to deliver 9-10% yields given the industry and all its risks.

Lets put a pint on it - they make $13m+ I win, under $13m you win. I'll still be able to fund the beer as HLG is 8% of my rather concentrated portfolio of 9 stocks....

Ok - a pint of the best ale. Remind me when it is time to collect.

In 3 of the last 5 years they have paid out more than what free cash flow was. So probably pay out $18m-$20m this year irrespective of what profit is - so 30 cents is on the cards still.

[winner69]

W69,


...... and I note electronic spending was out today with strength driven by spending on hospitality and clothes - the s....

Clothing and Footwear category for November was 6.3% up on last year

Follows a pretty poor couple of previous months - last 3 months (Sept through November) are only up 1.4% on last year

Maybe, just maybe, NZ shoppers have just woken up and started to buy big for Xmas and the holiday season.

Wonder how things are looking in Australia?

[winner69]

Arbroath mate, stop buying

You pushing price up too much

We will be talking 5 bucks again at this rate

[BIRMANBOY]

Ok W69 you can rest easy ...the cat has decided to upgrade his wardrobe so its undoubtedly on its way back up. LOL I just couldn't resist the Dividend yield and the cash was burning a hole in my pocket.

Arbroath mate, stop buying

You pushing price up too much

We will be talking 5 bucks again at this rate

[Arbroath]

Arbroath mate, stop buying

You pushing price up too much

We will be talking 5 bucks again at this rate

I promise winner its not me. I'm in at $3.33 and have received a couple of dividends and quite happy holding. I love the lack of gearing and quality of management but wouldn't overweight Hallensteins due to the tough sector they operate in. A happy holder though at these levels.

Some people like it though - its put on 7% in a week but I'd say $3.50/60 caps it until definitive news on how the Xmas season has gone for them.

[nextbigthing]

Good sign.

http://www.3news.co.nz/nznews/record...#axzz3v5Dvc91m

[winner69]

Expect a positive announcement from HLG in next day or two

All signs point to really strong sales and hopefully they will also say that margins are honky dory as well.

That'll set a rocket under the share price.

[winner69]

Stats NZ Electronic Card Spend for December

Apparel up 7.6% on year prior

HLG probably up more.

Last few months numbers been very soid

HLG update any day know - robust sales + OK margins = share rice $4 plus

[Arbroath]

I can taste that pint winner....