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  1. #7051
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post

    Good on you for getting out at 8 bucks odd ....needs to go up 30% from current price to get back to 8 bucks (maybe it never will)
    Come on - already in the despair phase?

    I am sure they will get back to that price and higher ... but it might take a handful of years until the bear is over and property booming again ....
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  2. #7052
    An Awesome Cool Cat winner69's Avatar
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    A reminder

    Humongous sales number announced next week

    Might even give some earnings guidance ....underlying earnings $100m plus

    Recovery in share price likely
    Last edited by winner69; 04-01-2019 at 10:28 AM.
    “In a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap.”

    –Benjamin Graham”

  3. #7053
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    A reminder

    Homongous sales number announced next week

    Might even give some earnings guidance ....underlying earnings $100m plus

    Recovery in share price likely
    No doubt the data will be released ... but are you sure about the share price recovery?

    Pretty sure they would need some very creative accounting to satisfy the 2018 forecasts ...
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  4. #7054
    Trying to get outta here
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    A reminder

    Humongous sales number announced next week

    Might even give some earnings guidance ....underlying earnings $100m plus

    Recovery in share price likely
    Yeah right, Q4 sales disappoint equals SP thumping.

  5. #7055
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    I am not one to follow what MarketScreener values a company at, but current average valuations of Summerset are $7.76 in comparison to Ryman which are valued at $10.80 and Oceania at $1.19. Both Summerset and Oceania are fairly valued at this point and I find Summerset's drop is mainly due to pre Bear Market trends which could continue. If this bear market does take hold, I feel Summerset and Ryman will take the biggest hits. I must admit, I feel this is a correction and not a Bear Market (but don't quote me and I could be wrong). I think the price has been already built in for Summerset on slower sales and we might see a further drop only if the Bear Market is upon us.

  6. #7056
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by peat View Post
    I'm convinced you want to buy back in Beagle!
    No this is off my radar now. I am convinced the bear is here and OCA is the most defensive choice in this sector.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  7. #7057
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    No this is off my radar now. I am convinced the bear is here and OCA is the most defensive choice in this sector.
    Yep and the Couta ratio theorum says SUM only worth $5.90 based on the figures given in the above post not $7.76.Lol

  8. #7058
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    Yep and the Couta ratio theorum says SUM only worth $5.90 based on the figures given in the above post not $7.76.Lol
    The extremely well respected and legendary Couta1 reversion theory says 5:1 OCA v SUM, so SUM is only worth $5.30 but I would not be a buyer at that price because most purchases of SUM units are discretionary lifestyle choices made only if and when people can sell their homes for what they want for them.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  9. #7059
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    Picked up some this morning at $6.11.
    I'm investing in the long term as I normally do.
    I consider it to be a good buy, with PE at only 6.37 and Div yield of 2.14%

  10. #7060
    Trying to get outta here
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    The extremely well respected and legendary Couta1 reversion theory says 5:1 OCA v SUM, so SUM is only worth $5.30 but I would not be a buyer at that price because most purchases of SUM units are discretionary lifestyle choices made only if and when people can sell their homes for what they want for them.
    Yes which highlights how undervalued OCA is compared to the current SUM price, OCA should be $1.22 which we know is about right but the market needs more wake up time.Lol

  11. #7061
    An Awesome Cool Cat winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    The extremely well respected and legendary Couta1 reversion theory says 5:1 OCA v SUM, so SUM is only worth $5.30 but I would not be a buyer at that price because most purchases of SUM units are discretionary lifestyle choices made only if and when people can sell their homes for what they want for them.
    The theorem re OCA v SUM hasn’t been tested over a long enough period to be ‘proved’ yet

    Way it’s going likely the ratio will end up like 6 (or even more) OCA for 1 SUM (but a 10:5:1 split looks sexier)
    “In a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap.”

    –Benjamin Graham”

  12. #7062
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Shareholders will be anxiously awaiting Q4 sales numbers. Astute observers will have noticed that cash flow growth has been a LOT slower than underlying profit growth in the last 2 years. They've got away with that so far by issuing a lot of cheap debt but that can't go on forever.
    I remain of the view that its a BIG mistake not to have fixed weekly fees for life when almost every other company in this sector does.
    Last edited by Beagle; 07-01-2019 at 10:11 AM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  13. #7063
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Shareholders will be anxiously awaiting Q4 sales numbers. Astute observers will have noticed that cash flow growth has been a LOT slower than underlying profit growth in the last 2 years. They've got away with that so far by issuing a lot of cheap debt but that can't go on forever.
    I remain of the view that its a BIG mistake not to have fixed weekly fees for life when almost every other company in this sector does.
    You may be correct with this and I value your input with these companies, as well as Couta with insider knowledge. On that note I have done a guess as to what the sales figures will look like. I am guessing at 135 new sales and about 102 resales. This brings a Total of around 237 sales, plus the 447 already sold and a Total for 684 for the year. I am hoping for more new sales, but I am trying to be realistic..... DYOR and I would love to hear other guesses.

  14. #7064
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    I'm too scared to guess mate because on the balance of probabilities one looks like an idiot within a very short time frame lol
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  15. #7065
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ggcc View Post
    You may be correct with this and I value your input with these companies, as well as Couta with insider knowledge. On that note I have done a guess as to what the sales figures will look like. I am guessing at 135 new sales and about 102 resales. This brings a Total of around 237 sales, plus the 447 already sold and a Total for 684 for the year. I am hoping for more new sales, but I am trying to be realistic..... DYOR and I would love to hear other guesses.
    I`m up for it. After looking back the last 4 years of performance and mixing in a flat property market here are my (fairly conservative) estimates;
    new sales for the quarter -85
    resales for the quarter -75
    I also predict they will make c. 100 m FY 2018 = 45 cps @ average PE of 16.3 = share price of $7.33
    I think think the general investors withdrawal of retirement stocks is overdone. Time is linear and there are plenty of , every increasing -old stubborn , intolerant rich guys who will fill our offerings- where else will they live - with their kids?.
    The retirement village juggernaut is not over for a very long time.
    I will mostly be using the result tomorrow as a bell weather for OCA. After all you just can't have too many of them.
    (disc - have 15% sum)

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