Crude Oil

[Mick100]

The commercial traders are increasing there long positions in crude

http://buythebottom.com/oil.html
.

[bermuda]

Future of global oil production

For those that have audio, download an interview with Roger Blanchard by dialing up www.energybulletin.net and clicking onto North Sea Oil Production June 19.Scroll down to the end and click on the Global Public Media presentation.

An excellent overview.

[bermuda]

Slightly off topic but dial up Iraq swamp oil( on google ) for a horrifying story on Iraq's inability to refine crude oil.

[JBmurc]

NYMEX Light Sweet Crude +0.99 $70.33
IPE Brent +1.09 $69.17
Gasoline NY Harbor +0.0604 $2.0660
Heating Oil NY Harbor +0.0297 $1.9371
NYMEX Natural Gas +0.086 $6.588

[Packersoldkidney]

From US Department of Energy report June 22nd 2006:

"Total products supplied over the last four-week period has averaged nearly 20.9 million barrels per day, or 0.8 percent more than averaged over the same period last year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged 9.4 million barrels per day, or 0.9 percent above the same period last year. Distillate fuel demand has averaged nearly 4.1 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, or 1.1 percent above the same period last year. Jet fuel demand is up 1.7 percent over the last four weeks compared to the same four-week period last year."

I would warn people about extrapolating current economic data too far into the future.....just remember that current economic data won't tell you much about how markets will move next year.

[Mick100]

Packers, your data proves that $70 oil is not putting any downward preasure on demand at all.

IMO,i don't think there will be any drop off in US demand until oil is over $100 per bbl
Demand will continue increasing at a rapid pace in asia even when oil is over $100 a bbl.
As Marc Faber put it a couple of yrs ago - "investing in oil is a no brainer"
,

[Packersoldkidney]

quote:Originally posted by Mick100


Packers, your data proves that $70 oil is not putting any downward preasure on demand at all.

IMO,i don't think there will be any drop off in US demand until oil is over $100 per bbl
Demand will continue increasing at a rapid pace in asia even when oil is over $100 a bbl.
As Marc Faber put it a couple of yrs ago - "investing in oil is a no brainer"
,

You are right, Mick: if anything the data from the US DOE report indicates demand is actually increasing, not slacking off. I posted that info because I thought it relevant to the thread; it certainly undermines my short position view of oil though.

[Packersoldkidney]

Big news in the oil sector overnight....people like Skinny who bet on an upsurge in oil stocks after the recent sell down will be making more profits methinks as soon as the full impact of this deal are understood. Looks as if there is a lot of money waiting on the sidelines to get into oil at the moment: there could be a scramble to get hold of quality O & G assets. How long this will take to percolate through to the rest of the world's markets is unknown at this stage.

Blockbuster $21 billion oil deals set

Texas-based Anadarko buying Kerr-McGee and Western Gas, adding deepwater and natural gas resources.

By Steve Hargreaves, CNNMoney.com staff writer
June 23, 2006: 1:10 PM EDT

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - Anadarko Petroleum Corp. said Friday it is buying two rival energy companies for about $21 billion in cash, a move that will create the nation's fifth largest oil and gas producer.

The Texas-based company said it agreed to buy Colorado-based Western Gas Resources and Oklahoma's Kerr-McGee Corp. in deals under which it will also take on $2.2 billion in debt.

The deal pays a huge premium for the two firms, and shares of Kerr-McGee (up $18.30 to $68.60, Charts) surged 36 percent in early trading on the New York Stock Exchange while Western (up $18.84 to $59.75, Charts) skyrocketed 46 percent.

Anadarko (down $3.42 to $44.97, Charts) shares slid about 7 percent.

"An all-cash deal, it was unexpected and a very bold move," said Fadel Gheit, an analyst at Oppenheimer. "But I have faith in (Anadarko CEO Jim) Hackett. This is the crown achievement of his career, and he's not likely to buckle."

Gheit cited Kerr-McGee's extensive deepwater drilling expertise, saying the firm could go "head-to-head" with any of the bigger oil companies in the Gulf of Mexico.

"He's buying companies with complementary resources and tremendous upside potential," Gheit added.

Under the deal for Kerr-McGee, Anadarko is paying about $16.4 billion, or about $70.50 a share, plus the assumption of $1.6 billion in debt. Kerr-McGee closed Thursday at $50.30 on the New York Stock Exchange.

Separately, Anadarko is paying $4.7 billion, or $61 a share for Western, which closed at $40.91 Thursday.

Anadarko execs said they weren't bothered by what some called the high price for the companies, saying it was largely due to the recent drop in energy stock prices, meaning the companies being acquired were worth more when negotiations first began.

Neither company was publicly on the auction block when Anadarko approached them, he added.

"The long-term value hasn't become any different," said Hackett during a conference call. "We're very comfortable here. It's a great footprint for our combined operations, and a great growth vehicle."

The deals will be financed with $24 billion in funding provided UBS, Credit Suisse and Citigroup, Anadarko said.

A company spokeswoman said the company would sell some assets following the deal, but that the combined company would be about 50 percent larger, about the same size as Occidental (Charts).

Kerr-McGee was one of the first companies to pioneer deepwater drilling. Its core fields are in the Gulf of Mexico and onshore in Colorado and Utah.

In addition to its domestic operations, Kerr-McGee is exploring and developing fields offshore in China, Brazil, Australia, West Africa and in Alaska's North Slope.

The deal comes after a number of huge oil mergers several years back that formed the nation's biggest oil producers, Exxon Mobil, ChevronTexaco and ConocoPhillips.

But acquisitions have been limited for the last few years. Some lawmakers have blamed high oil and gas prices on a lack of competition in the industry and called for the breakup of some of the biggest oil companies.

Oil executives say they need the economies of scale to compete in an international market against huge state-owned oil companies, some of which are larger than Exxon Mobil, the world's largest publicly traded oil firm.

[JBmurc]

-hope everyone,s buying up these undervalued ASX oilers
should be some great gains over the next year.
-my recent buy was the undervalued STX at 21.5c(sold recently at 34c) 49market cap,11m cash,making $25,000per day on first 2 drills at Mesquite with 2 more being tested ,holds Carnarvon basin permits with a 50mbbll drill there soon


NYMEX Light Sweet Crude +0.41 $73.93
IPE Brent +0.63 $73.51
Gasoline NY Harbor -0.0927 $2.2021
Heating Oil NY Harbor -0.0234 $1.9642
NYMEX Natural Gas -0.031 $6.104

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures closed at their highest level since mid-May, scoring a 7% gain for the quarter after eight winning sessions.
On Friday, traders focused on gasoline supplies heading into the July 4 holiday weekend, which is likely to prompt a spike in fuel consumption.
Regular trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed early Friday and will remain closed Monday and Tuesday for the Independence Day holiday.
"Fundamentals are moving more and more bearish, with the biggest first-quarter OECD inventory build in years," said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research.
Supplies at the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development, a group of 30 industrialized nations, normally drop about 1 million barrels a day in the first quarter. This year they rose about 300,000 barrels a day, he said.
But "the fear of hurricanes and the Iranian situation (among others) will keep the market on a boil," Lynch said.
Crude for August delivery rose 41 cents to finish at $73.93 a barrel Friday -- its highest closing level since May 12. It reached $74.15 a barrel, the loftiest intraday level since June 5.
August crude has gained 6.6% since the close of $69.34 on June 20. It closed Friday 4.3% above the week-ago close of $70.87 and up $4.84 from the end of the first-quarter price of $69.09.
"The longer crude stays above $70, the more likely a move above $80 becomes," analysts at Merrill Lynch said in a research note to clients. "Global economic prospects remain robust and asset reflation influences are intact."
The crude contract added more than $1 on Thursday, finding support from an oil-shipping snag in Louisiana and unexpected declines in U.S. crude and gasoline inventories in the latest week, reported by the Energy Department on Wednesday. The next weekly report will be released July 6, with the initial figures at 10:30 a.m. Eastern Time and the full report at 1 p.m. The report will be a day late because of the July 4 holiday.

[arco]

I have calculated there is some Gann support in the 65.60 area, so that would be a region to look for a possible reversal signal.

GTA - arco