Seeka

[BlackPeter]

Thanks for sharing.

Lots of red flags in there:

- China moving towards increased domestic food supply
- Government financial support for China's Kiwifruit industry
- Chinese companies developing their own varieties and IP

What's the bet NZ trained some of their scientists in our education facilities?

Red flags?

- China moving towards increased domestic food supply

This is a good thing, and should be fully supported by a anti globalist and populist like you. But apart from that, its good as well from an ecological and food security related perspective - less transport emissions and more diversity.

- Government financial support for China's Kiwifruit industry

Well, yes - most governments think it prudent to support their agriculture in one way or another. Just look at Europe or the States. How do you see our governments support for agricultural research?

- Chinese companies developing their own varieties and IP

Good on them. Competition is great, will increase diversity and competition and improve life for the consumer.

- What's the bet NZ trained some of their scientists in our education facilities?

So what? This is the way humanity is moving forward. Europeans learned from Chinese and Arabs most of their early medical knowledge. Most of our food staples come from the Americas ... populated at that time by people coming from Asia.

Isn't it great if we give some of that knowledge back ... and even to get them to pay for their education here?

[Toddy]

Zespri has offered some pretty good strategies to be involved in the China growth and the European growth.

But under regulation they require the growers to vote on these strategies with 75 percent support required. Everything Zespri ever tries to do gets voted down because only 48 percent of the growers currently hold shares.

It becomes very frustrating for Zespri and the younger generations of Kiwifruit growers when progression is road blocked.

[Jaa]

Red flags?

- China moving towards increased domestic food supply

This is a good thing, and should be fully supported by a anti globalist and populist like you. But apart from that, its good as well from an ecological and food security related perspective - less transport emissions and more diversity.

- Government financial support for China's Kiwifruit industry

Well, yes - most governments think it prudent to support their agriculture in one way or another. Just look at Europe or the States. How do you see our governments support for agricultural research?

- Chinese companies developing their own varieties and IP

Good on them. Competition is great, will increase diversity and competition and improve life for the consumer.

- What's the bet NZ trained some of their scientists in our education facilities?

So what? This is the way humanity is moving forward. Europeans learned from Chinese and Arabs most of their early medical knowledge. Most of our food staples come from the Americas ... populated at that time by people coming from Asia.

Isn't it great if we give some of that knowledge back ... and even to get them to pay for their education here?

Red flags for Seeka and the NZ kiwifruit industry.

Anti-globalist? haha I am very pro free trade and the free movement of people and information.

The problem is China does not practice any of that and prefers to cheat, steal and lie. As soon as their kiwifruit industry is up to volume watch them pull more nonsense health scares on NZ kiwifruit to shift demand to local fruit like they did with the far superior Taiwanese pineapples.

China has already been caught stealing and growing NZ sungold kiwifruit and since there is no rule of law told NZ to stick it despite our free trade agreement.

From the original article looks like the NZ industry might be saved a bit by climate change. One can hope that burning all that coal even at the expense of idling green alternatives, deforesting the world and concreting everywhere to the point you can't see across the road due to the pollution backfires on the CCP.

[Toddy]

Zespri sent out a grower update yesterday with an early forecast for this season just underway.

The forecast tray numbers are very sobering. They have forecast just over 7,000 trays per ha average for green and mid 11,000 trays per ha for gold.

The packout rates so far have also been below average with skin rub from wind being the main reject.

The cumulative effects (costs and lost production) of the extreme weather events (frost, rain, wind) is starting to become reality.

Grasping at positives, it will be a short selling and storage year which should mean less offshore fruit losses at market. And the harvest and packing should be a cake walk weather permitting.

Seeka, Eastpack etc have been working hard with the growers to control the controllables.

However, it's the outright volume of tray numbers that count for economies of scale to make money in this game.

Fingers crossed that normal weather patterns resume next season.

[bull....]

Zespri sent out a grower update yesterday with an early forecast for this season just underway.

The forecast tray numbers are very sobering. They have forecast just over 7,000 trays per ha average for green and mid 11,000 trays per ha for gold.

The packout rates so far have also been below average with skin rub from wind being the main reject.

The cumulative effects (costs and lost production) of the extreme weather events (frost, rain, wind) is starting to become reality.

Grasping at positives, it will be a short selling and storage year which should mean less offshore fruit losses at market. And the harvest and packing should be a cake walk weather permitting.

Seeka, Eastpack etc have been working hard with the growers to control the controllables.

However, it's the outright volume of tray numbers that count for economies of scale to make money in this game.

Fingers crossed that normal weather patterns resume next season.

thx for update

not looking to good this yr for seeka , like you say next year might be better dependant on weather.
In the mean time i guess all the grower incentive shares will keep flowing onto market with little in the way of buyers to soak them up

[bull....]

Kiwifruit orchard owners struggling to sell
Kiwifruit orchard prices have plummeted 30%, with sales stalling in the prime growing region of Bay of Plenty

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/far...ggling-to-sell

[BlackPeter]

[FONT="]Kiwifruit orchard owners struggling to sell
[/FONT]Kiwifruit orchard prices have plummeted 30%, with sales stalling in the prime growing region of Bay of Plenty

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/far...ggling-to-sell

Must be an opportunity to buy a Kiwi fruit orchard at a sensible price ... but I recon they are still too dear;

[bull....]

Must be an opportunity to buy a Kiwi fruit orchard at a sensible price ... but I recon they are still too dear;

that's what the article was hinting at if you wanted a respectable return of 10% pa prices might need to fall further

[Toddy]

The Green kiwifruit is a low value product. It's not even a viable business in the majority of cases if you are being honest about costs. The value of Green orchards are based on the value of a fully producing gold/red less conversion/license costs.

Zespri having to sell traditional Green fruit erodes the value that goes back to shareholders.

A new variety higher producing Green that is licensed to Zespri is not too far away from trials that will help solve the Green problem.

It's a great investment at these prices and I would not read too much into a real estate agents take on future business returns.

[GTM 3442]

Nothing unexpected, but "ouch" all the same

SEK
19/04/2023 16:01
MKTUPDTE
PRICE SENSITIVE
REL: 1601 HRS Seeka Limited

MKTUPDTE: SEK: Seeka advises market of lower than expected crop volumes

Seeka Limited [NZX:SEK] advises that the early season kiwifruit volumes
packed by the company are well down on estimate reflecting climatic events
including an atypically mild winter followed by a severe late frost, cyclone
and more recently hail. Yields are well down on expectation.

Overall, the company estimates that total volumes could be down by 20% on the
previous year and may result in a forecast operating loss for the current
year. The company has proactively reduced costs, slowed its capital
expenditure programme and continued with its asset reviews.

Seeka advises it is too early to accurately estimate full year guidance and
will update the market on earnings when there is greater certainty of the
current year's financial outlook. Once the harvest is complete, the market
will be updated.

Release ends.