Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
Yes, but in a broadly stable market, how do you create your foresight? I look to the past for future inspiration, while keeping in mind that going too far back into the past is also getting distant from today's (and tomorrow's) reality. Five years is about the shortest company history I am comfortable with if I am looking for a track record. With some companies, I look at records going ten years back. With ANZ, given the Basel 3 capitalisation requirements in force today, my judgement is that going back any further than five years in the record might not be representative of 'the modern banking environment'.

Some brokers just take last year's result for any company and add a fudge factor and call that a forecast.

If you have a better 'forward looking system', then let's hear what it is!

SNOOPY
Always start with the company's own forecasts.Then it is easy to compare results with forecasts.Some companies achieve their forecasts,other don't.I invest in those who do.
I read brokers analysts research from Craigs,Hobson Wealth,FNZC,and the odd Forbar.The good analysts talk to the companies,and their competitors.The good analysts know their sectors they cover.I attend as many AGMs and presentations as I can.I often ring companies,and either talk to the CFO or CEO.
The more research I do,the better the results I achieve.After following the market for 50 years I seem to be able to sort the wheat from the chalf.My own self employed business experience,and circle of knowledgeable business friends also helps.
I invest in sectors that have strong tail winds and avoid those who face headwinds.
I try to simplify my research,so as not to get confused or lost.Stay foccussed on what matters.