OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[SailorRob]

Regret's...I certainly have a few. At first I was a little bit miffed to be stirred from my lengthy slumber in my kennel today but its certainly given me more clarity as its actually really useful for you to post my pre-IPO thoughts because to be honest I'd forgotten how many reservations I had right from the outset. Somewhere along the way I lost my way and allowed myself to get sucked into the hype / vortex or was it the charm of Earl and his presentation at the Auckland shareholders association meeting years ago ?, or maybe a combination of all of these things ?... not really sure what it was but I made the mistake of thinking a new experimental business plan of trying to make serious money out of care might prove more profitable than the well proven independent living focused business plan of the likes of SUM. I should of known that no matter how you slice and dice it there's very little money in care.

I think its perfectly clear that SUM's very well proven business model is far superior and its fanciful to suggest this will ever trade on the same metrics as a company that has proven they can grow earnings in such an impressive way as SUM, 10 year CAGR of 33% speaks for itself. Is there any other company on the NZX that comes close to that ? The only question left for me to address is when is the right time to fix my mistake and get out of this and back into SUM ? The share price is currently so weak I don't think this is the right time...or maybe the sooner the better...I really don't know.

Looks like SUM did CAGR of 43% over 10 years, just looking at morningstar data? And haven't issued many shares either. Is that right?

[Beagle]

Looks like SUM did CAGR of 43% over 10 years, just looking at morningstar data? And haven't issued many shares either. Is that right?

Thanks for your comment earlier today, that was very kind. Maybe I should have stuck with my original reservations though.
I think SUM themselves stated it was 33% CAGR for the 10 year period so that's the figure more likely to be correct. I think they have been running a shares in lieu of dividend program for most of that time but to the best of my recollection there have not been any share issues, per se, only a couple of bond issues.

One other thing. Over the time SUM has been listed its up more than 8 times your money and RYM since November 2011 is up 3.4 times your money.
Before SUM listed RYM enjoyed a period of, from memory, about 15 years of first mover advantage and really cleaned up. They had a share split 5:1 many years ago. Over the long run returns for RYM have been spectacular but in the last decade since SUM listed their star has shone much brighter.
OCA has been a real mutt by comparison. They do say every dog has its day but (in case its not perfectly obvious already LOL), my patience is wearing very thin.

[Greekwatchdog]

A spending spree. https://www.nzx.com/announcements/391675

[Balance]

A spending spree. https://www.nzx.com/announcements/391675

CR on the way

[winner69]

Buying more things ... that's good

Better still it's not just eps accretive its going to 'deliver strong accretion to underlying earnings per share' .... just like all past acquisitions

Never mind onwards and upwards and hope things get better

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...675/370056.pdf

[Greekwatchdog]

CR on the way

They raised $100m last year on a bond offer. So can't see it.

[777]

"and are funded by existing debt facilities"

Pretty clear to me.

[Balance]

"and are funded by existing debt facilities"

Pretty clear to me.

They all say that and then, they do a capital raising.

Standard listed company practice.

Could account for why sp has been weak so imo, could be a positive.

[Beagle]

What I am really liking here is:-

1.The vast majority of units acquired are independent living - This signals a very important change of direction that Brent is bringing to the company
2. Its debt funded - no point issuing shares at deeply discounted prices
3. Brent says this will be strongly earnings accretive per share even in the first year of purchase, FY23
4. The Bream Bay acquisition has considerable scope for expansion...I hear there's strong demand for retirement units in the North where its warmer.
5. In the last line of the announcement they said they are lifting their build rate to 300 units per annum ! This is VERY good news !
6. Expansion of debt facility gives scope for possibly more acquisitions on advantageous eps accretive terms.

Bream Bay looks pretty good to me, early video of the development I found on youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fJKV...az0wODA1MjAyMg

Finally...something positive to bark about !

Also worth noting is the last village they bought in Hobsonville was a full feature one with modest care facilities. I think we are seeing a change of direction towards more independent living facilities which is really heartening. Maybe Brent reads this thread.

[winner69]

Raving about it being EPS accretive gives the warm fuzzies eh ...must be great eh ....but its all a nonsense

All it says that with out a cap raise (ie no new shares) its going to make a profit of at least $1 ,,,strongly eps accretive means more than $1

You'd hope that all things they buy are for the intent of making a profit ..... rather than just adding to the charitable work they're doing