OK - so I made under my "2016 predictions" the following points:

1) interest rates will stay low, though drifting slightly upwards towards the second half of 2016 (US,Europe, NZ) due to inflation rising (oil prices can't drop forever). Low interest rates will keep equity prices up;

2) oil will stay low (<US$60/bbl), this should help companies like AIR, THL, NZR (and others);
and got a question / response from troyvdh:

Giday Blackpete...good post ..but the first two confuse me..about oil ..I believe that the average price per barrel is about $27.50...over the past 120 odd years..not sure if that is inflation adjusted....as you are aware the world currently has S...
Just thought that the subject belongs more into this thread ... and therefore transferred the lot.

First - I am no oil expert - and I didn't foresee the amazing crash in the oil prices (in the 2nd half of 2014) either - i.e. your view is as good as mine or anybody elses. Here is the reasons I think that the average oil price in 2016 will be similar, or not much lower than 2015 and (modestly) rising afterwards:

Hardly any oil producer around these days who can afford to live with the current prices. A number of mid American countries are due to low oil price close to state bankrupt (e.g. Venezuela), Russia has huge financial problems and even Saudi Arabia can't afford to keep pumping long term at current price level. If you look at the balance between world oil supply and demand - yes, we have currently more supply than demand, but the gap is not that huge. Take less than 2% from the supply side away and demand is larger than supply and prices would increase (though obviously - the higher the price goes, the more additional wells (like shale oil) turn profitable again, and as well a higher price would curb demand (which is currently rising with an amazing rate) - i.e. I don't expect oil to reach anytime soon prices above $80 again.

Just do the sums ... if every oil producer produces just 2% less oil, than they all could immediately get say 50% more money for their oil. What would you chose? Producing 100 bbl oil for $40 each, or 98 bbl for $60? Right - I know, there are a lot of idiots in the oil business who just love to constantly shoot into their own feet, but I think this business case is just too compelling to keep them from fighting a price war forever nobody can win (and I mean nobody).

Otherwise - if they really keep fighting ... (assume Saudi Arabia's strategy works) - it does not take too much to bankrupt 2% of the world oil producers and again ... the oil price will immediately react. Remember - not too many new shale oil projects started in 2015 ... and a shale oil field loses within 18 months or so about 50% of its production if you don't keep drilling.

I.e. worst case (if you like a higher oil price) is for the glut to continue in 2016 (with Iran coming online), but by end of 2016 more shale oil will have left the market than the Iranians can additionally produce. Again - oil will go up in 2017.

That's the reason I think that 2016 will bring first another mild price dip (remember Iran) and in 2017 oil will move upwards again.

BTW - I seem to be not the only one believing in a (after 2016) slowly increasing oil price. Have a look into the current Brent futures (http://www.barchart.com/commodityfut.../CB?search=CB*), or look into the recent IEA report (https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/) - they all show similar trends, but again ... experts have been wrong before (and so have I) ...

Hope this helps. DYOR & all the best