Daily S&P 500 INDEX TRACKER

**Stranger_Danger** · 01-11-2009, 11:21 AM

Actually, I think Ananda and Hoop are both right.

However, Hoop's argument is the voting machine.

The chart Ananda presented with 1982 versus now - as Hoop suggests - has almost nothing to do with what sharemarkets did yesterday or may do tomorrow.

The question - the weighing machine argument - is whether those figures eventually mean something?

I say yes (we simply don't have the conditions needed for a new boom, and Government debt levels virtually require a new boom : the maths simply do not work), but knowing that gives no insight as to exactly what may happen and when.

To be honest, the "weighing machine" argument would have kept me out of the markets since March, so I'm thankful for going along with the voting machine for a while.

That said, chips are being steadily removed from the table now - I'm gonna sit out the next few votes, methinks.

**ananda77** · 02-11-2009, 01:47 PM

Originally Posted by Stranger_Danger

...The chart Ananda presented with 1982 versus now - as Hoop suggests - has almost nothing to do with what sharemarkets did yesterday or may do tomorrow

...of course not; the table is a warning that the rally since March is built on shoddy, deteriorating fundamentals which makes 'BUY and Hold' strategies risky; at this stage of course I do not know whether or not the rally will continue to a new 2009 recovery High or not, nor -DO I GIVE A HOOT-

...but when it comes to investment/trading strategies, choose which current situation is more preferable (safe)

-being fully invested
-out of the market

The Early Warning: Institutional Investors went into distribution around the 20th October warning of an impending short term market top with implications for a larger correction -chart data point 29 October 2009-

; the market action following the warning can be traced on the second chart

-chart data point 02 November 2009; note the time when the yellow uptrend line, which followed the short term uptrend from the green arrow market went horizontal >where several institutions recommended to seriously take chips off the table;
...please note: although institutions warned early, as long as liquidity inflows (CASH, CASH, CASH,) stay in positive territory, liquidity is the overriding indicator!!!! and usually makes for quite volatile markets;
...of course, if it turns out that SPX 500 *1101 is taken out, there is plenty of time to consider the upside potential again, but whatever happens; in the meantime, quite happy to stay in a win-win situation

Kind Regards

**beacon** · 02-11-2009, 01:57 PM

Originally Posted by Stranger_Danger

we simply don't have the conditions needed for a new boom, and Government debt levels virtually require a new boom : the maths simply do not work.

Generally Govts win. They can be the largest market mover if they wish, and at the moment they have virtually uncontested control of the printing presses, and we know what they wish. They have a beggar's choice in the matter...

You quote Bill Gross Ananada. In his earlier contemplations this year, even he has stressed the need for the Govts to reflate assets. This is what I think will currently be played out regardless of the perception that PE is slightly high. Coming out of a recession, PEs are generally higher than historical norms. This candle is lit in a hurricane lamp. I think it will need a stronger tempest to test its longevity than the one I currently see brewing. However, I watch with keen interest....

**ananda77** · 02-11-2009, 06:19 PM

Originally Posted by beacon

Generally Govts win. They can be the largest market mover if they wish, and at the moment they have virtually uncontested control of the printing presses, and we know what they wish. They have a beggar's choice in the matter...

...The US Government has NO CONTROL over the printing press, the FED does and that may play out as a major problem in the near future:

-economic sense versus political feasibility

Kind Regards

**ananda77** · 03-11-2009, 07:48 AM

Invetrics: Financial Insight and Market Timing Signals -data point 02 November 2009- (may adjust at Market Open)

The Technical SPX 500 Whereabouts -data point 02 October 2009-

Stocktiming: Technical Market Analysis -data point 02 November 2009-

Institutional Core Holdings
Institutional NET Buying and Selling Volume levels
Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows
NYSE Momentum and Strength

US Economic Calendar -data point 03 November 2009-

>US: actual----- (forecast) (consensus) (prior)
>US: actual----- (forecast) (consensus) (prior)
>US: actual----- (forecast) (consensus) (prior)

Stock Market Day Trader update -data point 03 November 2009-

SPX 500 Hedge -data point 03 November 2009-

Market Commentary -data point 03 November 2009-

Long Term: THE BEAR
_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

**JBmurc** · 03-11-2009, 09:33 AM

Originally Posted by ananda77

...The US Government has NO CONTROL over the printing press, the FED does and that may play out as a major problem in the near future:

-economic sense versus political feasibility

Kind Regards

I watched a U-tube clip last night in where a ex-high ranking IMF an a current senator were saying how the US has just now onto their final dept payments from the Vietnam war era Where the Government had run up a dept of 130bill

Now put that into context of the current US build up of dept now some est. 1.3 trill+(some say the true amount is many multiples of this) an growing with no end in sight as -Obama easy money to crook bankers continue to make the same mistakes -but I guess as Obama was backed by the big bankers Wall street in the election just checkout his cabinet nothing but ex Wall street ......never in US history has a government cabinet been so one-sided

**Hoop** · 03-11-2009, 10:45 AM

Ananda...Just in case you wondering...

When I read any article anywhere by anyone I firstly take in:
..what they are writing about and why? at this point of time.
..I check out who they are
..check their credentials and their past history success rate if they predict
..Look to see what their Peers think about them.

If a person has an impressive record I would act accordingly, irrespective of that persons weird habits, extreme/bizarre partying lifestyle and rooms in his house that has artificial vulvas plastered all over the walls.

I looked up Prof Nouriel Roubini and found a biography of him ... absolutely an exciting read...it would make a great storyline for a movie...Does this Guy burn a candle from both ends or what

..wow.

When making up your own mind about his endless mass of dire predictions, remember this article is written by Helaine Olen a self employed media reporter who also writes about Women's issues..wonder what she thought about Nouriel Roubini walls when she found out

.

**beacon** · 03-11-2009, 10:56 AM

But JBMurc, he needs them. He has a financial crisis on his hands. You don't ask financial advice from your tailor, do you?

Preparing to increase investment in US. Hope SPX500 gets to 1020. Brilliant readings Ananda. Well done ...

**dumbass** · 03-11-2009, 10:58 AM

Originally Posted by Hoop

Ananda...Just in case you wondering...

If a person has an impressive record I would act accordingly, irrespective of that persons weird habits, extreme/bizarre partying lifestyle and a room in his house that has artificial vulvas all over the walls.

I think your betraying Strats confidence there , i dont think he wanted that info made public.