Daily S&P 500 INDEX TRACKER

[JBmurc]

But JBMurc, he needs them. He has a financial crisis on his hands. You don't ask financial advice from your tailor, do you?

Preparing to increase investment in US. Hope SPX500 gets to 1020. Brilliant readings Ananda. Well done ...

I personal wouldn't take advice from the guys that help create the credit problem recession in the first place have you been living in a cave ,Wall street bankers get bonuses of 10's of millions ??.....for what? the US unemployment rate is 9.9% (I've heard once someone's unemployed over 12m there no longer included)

have fun investing in US

[beacon]

I personal wouldn't take advice from the guys that help create the credit problem recession in the first place

Fair point, but what is the alternative? It is the least bad option. Also one hopes that the experience has added to their learning curve. I'll give them a new leaf.

Wall street bankers get bonuses of 10's of millions ??.....for what? the US unemployment rate is 9.9%

They got that for a reason. Your frustration with the unfairness of the system and the outcomes is understandable but regardless of whether anybody thinks they deserved that or not, or whether they should be punished for their lethargy, bad anticipation, risk management, whatever... the remuneration packages are pre-decided. As Buffet says, only when the tide goes out does one know who's been swimming naked. Which investor hasn't lost money last year?

have fun investing in US

US is the pivot. That is where money will be made (or lost). Wish you well in your efforts, whevever you choose to invest. God knows, investors are a rare species at the moment...

[ananda77]

Ananda...Just in case you wondering...

...no I do not; anyway, here is another piece of basically the same story, a bit more chewy (got more if needed)

BIS Working Papers No 291 http://www.bis.org/publ/work291.pdf?noframes=1

The US dollar shortage in global banking and the international policy response
by Patrick McGuire and Götz von Peter

Monetary and Economic Department
October 2009

Kind Regards

[JBmurc]

Fair point, but what is the alternative? It is the least bad option. Also one hopes that the experience has added to their learning curve. I'll give them a new leaf.



They got that for a reason. Your frustration with the unfairness of the system and the outcomes is understandable but regardless of whether anybody thinks they deserved that or not, or whether they should be punished for their lethargy, bad anticipation, risk management, whatever... the remuneration packages are pre-decided. As Buffet says, only when the tide goes out does one know who's been swimming naked. Which investor hasn't lost money last year?



US is the pivot. That is where money will be made (or lost). Wish you well in your efforts, whevever you choose to invest. God knows, investors are a rare species at the moment...

Yeah I wish you all the luck if you plan to invest in the US markets

Guys I follow that are very bearish on US-Jim rogers
-Peter schiff
-Marc Faber
-Max Keiser
-Jim Sinclair
-gerald celente
-Ron paul

[ananda77]

Invetrics: Financial Insight and Market Timing Signals -data point 03 November 2009- (may adjust at Market Open)

The Technical SPX 500 Whereabouts -data point 02 October 2009-

Stocktiming: Technical Market Analysis -data point 02 November 2009-

...Institutional Core Holdings
...Institutional NET Buying and Selling Volume levels
...Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows
...NYSE Momentum and Strength

US Economic Calendar -data point 03 November 2009-

>US Factory Orders Sept.: actual 0.9% (forecast 1.2%) (consensus 0.8%) (prior -0.8%)
>US Auto Sales October: actual-----(forecast 3.4M) (consensus n/a) (prior n/a)
>USTruck Sales October: actual----- (forecast 3.7M) (consensus n/a) (prior n/a)

Stock Market Day Trader update -data point 03 November 2009-

… so far, displaying a neutral tone and showing cautious uptick buying power within negative market breadth, the SPX 500 seems set up for a struggle higher from Monday's Low *1029
...an oversold corrective bounce from the *1029/*1033 range of the past few days should create enough momentum to challenge the Oct 29 High *1067, but
...failing *1067, would lead to an even sharper sell-off than the market has seen last week as investors/traders would take to opportunity to add to short positions targeting the October Low *1020 initially
….penetration of *1020 on a Close basis should accelerate losses toward the Jun High *956 with potential to retest the Jul Low *869 before year-end

SPX 500 Hedge -data point 03 November 2009-

....Cash with Downside Cover

Market Commentary -data point 03 November 2009-

Marc Faber: 'DEEP THOUGHTS' http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...%20nov%201.pdf ...One of the reasons which gave me confidence that stock markets around the world were bottoming out in March 2009 was the fact that several foreign markets and most US equities failed to make new lows (below the lows they had reached between October and November 2008). Chinese stocks bottomed out on October 31, 2008 and did not make a new low in March 2009 (see Figure 17). But now, Chinese stocks have failed to exceed their August 4, 2009 high. So, the way Chinese stocks led the world’s stock markets on the upside, they may now lead global stocks on the downside.

Last month’s commentary concluded that “my principal concern remains that asset markets are quite stretched. The Euro is overbought, the US dollar is oversold, and American and other equities are by and large overbought (see Figure 18). As can be seen from Figure 18, each time the percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 50-day moving average goes above 70%, a market correction follows, which then brings down the percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 50-day moving average to around 30%.” ...I believe this process is now underway

Long Term: THE BEAR
_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Invetrics: Financial Insight and Market Timing Signals -data point 04 November 2009- (may adjust at Market Open)

The Technical SPX 500 Whereabouts -data point 03 October 2009-

Stocktiming: Technical Market Analysis -data point 03 November 2009-

...Institutional Core Holdings severing its up-trend line for the first time since October 2008 and it would appear pre-mature to call the current corrective drive done in the midst of this important test of support
...Institutional NET Buying and Selling Volume levels
...Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows
...NYSE Momentum and Strength

US Economic Calendar -data point 04 November 2009-

>Challenger Job Cuts Oct: actual -50.7% (forecast n/a) (consensus n/a) (prior -30.2%)
>US ADP Employment Report Oct: actual -203K (forecast -235K) (consensus -190K) (prior -254K)
>US ISM Services October: actual-----(forecast 52.0) (consensus 51.5) (prior 50.9)
>US FOMC Rate Decision 11/4 : actual----- (forecast 0.25%) (consensus 0.25%) (prior 0.25%)

Stock Market Day Trader update -data point 04 November 2009-

…so far, the SPX 500 current advance sped up today but uptick buying power remains remarkably subdued and upticks appear corrective
...as part of an oversold bounce, there is still potential for the correction to reach the Oct 29 High *1067 or the Oct 22 Low *1074 but
….failure below this range could trigger a much more aggressive sell-off over the next several weeks with an initial target of *1020; would not be surprised at all, if an early positive reaction to any kind of manufactured positive reading into the Initial Claims report would be followed by a 'Sell the Fact' reaction igniting the sell-off
…under the bearish scenario, taking out *1020 on a Close basis should accelerate losses toward the Jun High *956 initially with potential to retest the Jul Low *869 before year-end

SPX 500 Hedge Study: -data point 04 November 2009-

...as mentioned in the Stock Market Day Trader update, the SPX 500 appears to have established a strong enough base short term for a potential test of the Oct 29 High *1067
...the question arises, if the SPX 1029/1033 base could turn out to be the bottom of the down turn that started with the October 21 High *1101 and whether or not, the index may be on its way to a new recovery High

...To Be or Not To Be LONG – CASH – SHORT

-looking at the SPX 500 Hegde Chart

the development is strikingly similar to the two previous instances and again, the index could have been bought at *1034/*1035; however
-checking the daily A/D-Linea long index position has not yet moved out of the 'High Risk' zone, where the A/D Line would move out of its current downtrend
-additionally, checking priceunlike the two previous instances where taking an early long position turned out rewarding, the 'High Risk' zone remains currently still situated below the 50-day MA and the primary March uptrend line and is an awefully long distance from the 200-day MA
...conclusion: if the current S&P 500 Index posture turns out to be another failed H&S pattern, then the next up-side target would be *1230, a big enough target to avoid unnecessary risks at present, especially, if a trader called the current top correctly

Market Commentary -data point 04 November 2009-

Jeffrey Saut: Dow Theory Sell Signal? http://freepdfhosting.com/03eb3eecd0.pdf ...When the going gets tough the tough go on the road. That’s what we did last week and that’s what we are doing again this week, so once again these will likely be the last strategy comments of the week. Nevertheless, last week’s “wilt” left everything we follow lower except for the U.S. Dollar Index. And while the DJIA (9712.73) averted a loss in October, none of the other indices we monitor did. Indeed, the S&P 500 (SPX/1036.19) slid 3.9%, bringing its two-week retreat to 5.6%. While our sense is that we are into a secondary correction, our proprietary overbought/oversold indicator is VERY oversold and the number of S&P 500 stocks that are above their 50-DMAs has fallen from more than 90% to 33.2%. Consequently, we continue to think it is a
mistake to get too bearish. Ergo, until Dow Theory “tells us” otherwise, we think the primary trend remains UP, and we continue to trade, and invest, accordingly.

Long Term: THE BEAR
_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

[beacon]

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

This listing is addictive. Beware the constant - on the mark - flow of this man's readings and trading ideas.

[delinky]

I have been waiting for ananda's comments since 6.00am.

[ananda77]

TA!!!

...the US time has moved back and the market opens at 3:30 am NZ time, so first takes on market action is usually unavailable until a few hours into the trading session until an important intraday pivot point has been reached

Kind Regards

[beacon]

Guys I follow that are very bearish on US-Jim rogers

Quote from this clip http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=a8fc.G.WUIP8

Rogers agreed with Roubini that the dollar’s decline was encouraging investors to buy more commodities and assets...

“Right now, everybody including me is pessimistic on the U.S. dollar,” Rogers said. “That usually leads to a rally, whatever the asset is, and I would just suspect it’s going to happen again this time...

In contrast to Roubini, Rogers said the only bubble he sees in the Western world now is in U.S. bonds.