Contact Energy - CEN Chart

[fish]

Ive just had a quick look at the 5 year charts of CEN FBU TEL....broadly fairly similar......generally negative and staying there....and of the NZ50 which largely looks positive ...going up.....(Im not sure what the impact of Chorus had)..

I am not a conspiracy theorist...but other folk aside from me have our suspicions about the majority SH-Origin...and what they are up to....my experiences with CEN have been disappointing (in addition to my earlier posts after I had switched to Genises..3 accounts...my first bill was for $11.39 cents...Genises stated that CEN had been misreading my meters............................Im thinking oh really...just mine ?...since the switch...my bills have generally lower..)...Origin have tried twice (?) and failed to take CEN over....and as I have stated in the past...there aint gonna be another Clyde build anytime soon....

Customer service and cheaper prices have changed at cen-the december report actually shows a monthly increase of customers . We changed from genesis to cen a few months ago to get cheaper prices through the 22% online ontime discount-really easy to do and great customer service and follow up to check we were happy .
Too many other improvements to mention but a couple outstand-the Te Mihi geothermal that will provide substantial green NI generation next year and the Ahuroa gas field storage .
Results will disappoint this year due to increased rainfall in north island and decreased in south substantially where contact get their wonderfully low cost green hydro-generation . I suspect this is the main reason for sp dropping but do suspect a big overseas investor is geting money out with the high exchange rate as usually there is only one big seller on the market

[bung5]

Results will disappoint this year due to increased rainfall in north island and decreased in south substantially where contact get their wonderfully low cost green hydro-generation . I suspect this is the main reason for sp dropping but do suspect a big overseas investor is geting money out with the high exchange rate as usually there is only one big seller on the market

Results will disapoint this year becaue of huge corporate overhead costs . Heard they were rolling out SAP for 80 million but now nearly double that cost.
Whats the cost of outsoucing IT to HP Australia into the same datacentres of Origin?
Only seems cost effective if Orgin own 100% right?

There has been huge generation investment with minimal increase in consumption.

[fish]

Results will disapoint this year becaue of huge corporate overhead costs . Heard they were rolling out SAP for 80 million but now nearly double that cost.
Whats the cost of outsoucing IT to HP Australia into the same datacentres of Origin?
Only seems cost effective if Orgin own 100% right?

There has been huge generation investment with minimal increase in consumption.

I agree in the short -term results will disappoint-although if this weeks increases in power prices continue the future will likely be a different story . Sooner or later retail prices will reach close to the marginal cost generation of wind and thermal - contact with low cost generation will make multiples of current profits .

I am convinced the sp reflects neither current returns nor the growth potential in profits-so I bought more today .

[CJ]

I am convinced the sp reflects neither current returns nor the growth potential in profits-so I bought more today .

As a long term holder, everytime I reconvince myself of this, the price drops further. I didn't expect it to drop below $5 last time I topped up.

I also wonder want impact the impending MRP IPO has. I wonder if investors are showing CEN less interest than they should as they know they will be taking part in the IPO later in the year.

[Hoop]

[fish]

2 reasons to buy-
dividend yield is greater than investing in banks . This yield is likely to rise in coming years unlike banks .
The current sp allows cheap entry into a stock that is not going to die-even in a recession -not that i believe nz is going into a recession.
I agree your chart -if current trend line continues-indicates death of this company .If I believed it predicts future trends for cen of course I would not buy .
No death wish here-i believe the sp is very low and far more likely in the long -term to go up than down .
People sell for all sorts of reasons-hopefully all the speculating chartists will have sold out by now !
If not I will have an opportunity to buy cheaper .
Hoop -it would be interesting if you could take up a challenge-post on here when you see the buy signals. I doubt if this will be at a cheaper price-including dividends -than the current sp .

[percy]

"It's always darkest before dawn".I hope you are right fish, but Hoop's chart paints a very dark picture.!!!
I own CEN shares.

[Hoop]

2 reasons to buy-
dividend yield is greater than investing in banks . This yield is likely to rise in coming years unlike banks .
The current sp allows cheap entry into a stock that is not going to die-even in a recession -not that i believe nz is going into a recession.
I agree your chart -if current trend line continues-indicates death of this company .If I believed it predicts future trends for cen of course I would not buy .
No death wish here-i believe the sp is very low and far more likely in the long -term to go up than down .
People sell for all sorts of reasons-hopefully all the speculating chartists will have sold out by now !
If not I will have an opportunity to buy cheaper .
Hoop -it would be interesting if you could take up a challenge-post on here when you see the buy signals. I doubt if this will be at a cheaper price-including dividends -than the current sp .

Hi Fish I will try to remember to post when buy signals appear.

Death of CEN due to continued future downward projections of the CEN chart is totally unreliable..not worth even thinking about.. Charts are only graphic data showing the "now" and what has happened in the past..nothing lasts forever ..not even downtrends...

TA buy/sell signal indicators try to prevent investors mistiming an entry/exit with better odds than a random punt...the more indicators firing off at once the better the odds eg the major breaks in the middle of my CEN chart. I usually use FA as homework for a share I like, then use TA for entry and exit.

Who knows Fish???... today could see the CEN share hit bottom...however the TA indicators as at Friday 27th suggest that the odds that a bottom has been reached "now" is low.

I always plan for entries with 70+% odds....OK..I may lose some with bull traps and others vagaries such as when the share breaks a downtrend and levels out to go no-where...but if you keep plugging away using a TA 70%+ odds strategy you usually come out ahead eventually......patience is a virtue... so to is sticking to the strategy discipline

Disc:.. Mrs Hoop owns CEN shares...bought and held from the beginning, ( public $2 float XXX Edit: GTM is right $3.10 not $2 )

[fish]

Hi Fish I will try to remember to post when buy signals appear.

Death of CEN due to continued future downward projections of the CEN chart is totally unreliable..not worth even thinking about.. Charts are only graphic data showing the "now" and what has happened in the past..nothing lasts forever ..not even downtrends...

TA buy/sell signal indicators try to prevent investors mistiming an entry/exit with better odds than a random punt...the more indicators firing off at once the better the odds eg the major breaks in the middle of my CEN chart. I usually use FA as homework for a share I like, then use TA for entry and exit.

Who knows Fish???... today could see the CEN share hit bottom...however the TA indicators as at Friday 27th suggest that the odds that a bottom has been reached "now" is low.

I always plan for entries with 70+% odds....OK..I may lose some with bull traps and others vagaries such as when the share breaks a downtrend and levels out to go no-where...but if you keep plugging away using a TA 70%+ odds strategy you usually come out ahead eventually......patience is a virtue... so to is sticking to the strategy discipline

Disc:.. Mrs Hoop owns CEN shares...bought and held from the beginning, ( public $2 float )

Thanks for the explaination hoop.
I admit my ignorance about TA .
Too me I feel TA is a bit like trying to forcast the weather . At times there will be a big high over us and rainfall will be unlikely and temperatures high for a week or more . At other times there maybe many active fronts and rainfall or not less predictable
At the moment weather patterns are looking a lot more favourable for contact and power prices are rising . Indeed heavy rain is forcast for the contact catchments by wednesday but dry for the next week in the NI .
Hoping the sp trend will take its cue from price trends and the weather forcast rather than the TA forcast

[macduffy]

Hi, fish.

I don't profess to know much about TA but a simple TA rule that has served me well - when I follow it! - is not to buy a stock in a downtrend. There's almost always a better Buy when the trend reverses and it's not worth the risk that the reversal may be some time in arriving and that the SP drops further.

The only exception to that rule would be if I thought there was a pretty good chance that a stock was going into play in short order. If I felt that Origin was likely to make another bid soon I'd be buying. But all the signs are that they aren't - downtrending SP; no abnormal turnover - so I'm not!

Cheers