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07-04-2014, 09:43 PM
#1031
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07-04-2014, 10:07 PM
#1032
Hoop well done
Your comment re dips becoming shallower and shallower. Read this http://hussman.net/wmc/wmc130415.htm
ESP the bit about Somette
Last edited by winner69; 07-04-2014 at 10:09 PM.
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08-04-2014, 09:26 AM
#1033
Ill stick my neck out and say last mth performance was a outlier and well revert to the mean this mth
one step ahead of the herd
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10-04-2014, 02:59 PM
#1034
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10-04-2014, 03:15 PM
#1035
Originally Posted by Hoop
Is it your opinion we're coming down the other side Hoop?
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11-04-2014, 10:03 AM
#1036
like i say reversion to the mean this mth
one step ahead of the herd
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11-04-2014, 10:25 AM
#1037
Actually rotation from growth stock like tech has been occurring for a while now money going to utilities, defensives
one step ahead of the herd
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13-04-2014, 11:56 AM
#1038
So Hoop, in the absence of a blatantly obvious catalyst such as a major country going bankrupt for example, how does a chartist tell whether it's a healthy correction or the start of a proper bear cycle?
Where are we in your opinion? My 'charts' suggested its another correction (I'm not a chartist, this is simply what has been happening and I appreciate that won't go on in this pattern forever) Winners chart suggested we're well overdue for a bear cycle that hadn't started yet, and I think your chat seems to suggest we're in a decent bear cycle?
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19-04-2014, 01:15 PM
#1039
Looks like Jesse Colombo from Forbes is the latest to bring up the elephant in the room: http://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecol...d-in-disaster/
I know for the past 10-odd years, many have been calling a house price bubble, but for how much longer will NZ's cheap credit inflated house prices survive? Then what will happen to that mountain of debt householders accumulated during period of historically low interest rates? If there is a resultant avalanche, where will the stock market end up?
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19-04-2014, 01:33 PM
#1040
Originally Posted by Bjauck
Looks like Jesse Colombo from Forbes is the latest to bring up the elephant in the room: http://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecol...d-in-disaster/
I know for the past 10-odd years, many have been calling a house price bubble, but for how much longer will NZ's cheap credit inflated house prices survive? Then what will happen to that mountain of debt householders accumulated during period of historically low interest rates? If there is a resultant avalanche, where will the stock market end up?
It's a cyclical matter, some cycles are longer and more volatile than others, but whether it proves to be a soft landing or a pop it will end sometime, IMO it’s got at least 12-18 months to run yet.
One aspect overlooked by Jesse Colombo is the intergenerational and demographical effect of the baby boomers. Remember when they all finished school and the resulting school closure debacle a few years on in the 80’s and early 90’s.
The wealthiest generation in human history are just about to start selling down those 3, 4 and 5 bedroom suburban homes and go looking for more suitable retirement dwellings and/or aged care facilities when the time comes.
Not all of the cash raised from selling ones previously family home finds its way back into the property sector, some goes to retirement savings and living expenses, a nice overseas trip, perhaps some will even leave the kids a sports car.
Baby boomers are now aged 54 through 69, tick tock ………………..
Last edited by MAC; 19-04-2014 at 01:44 PM.
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