PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[NT001]

Without being an expert on such deals, I can't really see that taking Colorectal into Japan in partnership with an established player, very likely one of the big Japanese ppharmas as MAC suggests, would involve major outlay by PEB. Yes, some form of cash/milestone payments like the deal with Cellmid but it ought to be pretty much self-supporting and revenue-positive - no need for armies of salespeople or big promotional costs or special labs, provided they find the right partner.

[MAC]

I reckon NT that the announcement from September must have put them on the radar in Japan, requires the pharma's to have a suitable companion drug under development of course, perhaps there are quite often better and better performing drugs being developed on an ongoing basis.

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/201125.pdf

[BFG]

Wouldn't mind a rights issue whilst the SP is down here.

Really? You'd like MORE dilution while the SP is suppressed?

Seriously weird...

[Xerof]

You're only 'diluted' if you fail to take up your rights.

Seriously factual...

[MAC]

Really? You'd like MORE dilution while the SP is suppressed?

Seriously weird...

Not at all, I do quite like rights issues actually, an opportunity to pick up shares at a nice discount to VWAP is often a bonus, especially whilst the shareprice hovers in the low end of the incumbent analyst valuation range of $0.46 to $3.91. I was entirely satisfied with the last rights issue at 55c when the stock was undervalued at that time too.

But look, that's the difference between a long term investors perspective, accumulating shares in a well managed company with good long term prospects and well some other sort of view I guess. Each to their own

Although having said that, Pacific Edge have enough cash on the books for a couple of years ahead, revenues aside even, and are much better financially securely placed than most startup companies at a similar stage.

I think they are more likely to go with a partner in Japan for Cxcolorectal. We have most probably seen the last rights issue, last year.

[Hoop]

The rally off the bottom (reversal -end of bear cycle??) paused for breath around the long term resistance (EMA200) which is common..

However..the 91c resistance wasn't broken convincingly as it had the EMA200 just above it forming a double barrier and now Mr Market is saying the pause is being seen as too long, and the technicals are weakening, triggering sell signals.

PEB going below 85c now sees another technical double barrier above the price,, the short term resistance line and the EMA50 resistance line both at 85c..Any short term positive movements (very risky) would be PEB closing above 87c and any positive long term (preferred risk option) action would be PEB price closing above 95c.. Indicating the pause (bull market correction) is over...

Going the other way there is strong support at the bull/bear line (78c)..If this line is broken the bear cycle resumes and the bottom (65c) becomes the focus of attention..

Short to Medium term TA investors won't be worried or be wasting time analysing the fundamental "ifs and buts" as they would be out of PEB by now..awaiting buy signals

[BFG]

MAC, I will love to see that cashburn rate compared to revenues. I doubt they will have cash to last all of 2015 if sales have not seriously picked up.

Only two weeks away now...

[MAC]

MAC, I will love to see that cashburn rate compared to revenues. I doubt they will have cash to last all of 2015 if sales have not seriously picked up.

Only two weeks away now...

I went to school so I can actually do arithmetic, doubt's got nothing to do with their retained cash position.

No one is forcing you to invest, we can compare notes again in a few years, if Pacific Edge is a $5 stock, and I think that has a good probability of being so, I won't at all say I told you so, that's not my style.

Happy to go over the merits of Pacific Edge as an investment in detail if you wish though, I've all the idle time in the world at present.

[winner69]

MAC, I will love to see that cashburn rate compared to revenues. I doubt they will have cash to last all of 2015 if sales have not seriously picked up.

Only two weeks away now...

I reckon cash for expenses + capex to be $16m for FY15. If income (including grants) only $3m (just a guess) cash burn then $13m ......leaving $7m left of the $20m

Roll on FY16 if income goes to $10m they should have cash to start FY17 off before things really get rolling and PEB a cash cow


Income a guess, surely they can do $3m this year ....anything more and cash lasts longer.

We'll be right

How my arithmetic mac

[MAC]

I reckon cash for expenses + capex to be $16m for FY15. If income (including grants) only $3m (just a guess) cash burn then $13m ......leaving $7m left of the $20m

Roll on FY16 if income goes to $10m they should have cash to start FY17 off before things really get rolling and PEB a cash cow


Income a guess, surely they can do $3m this year ....anything more and cash lasts longer.

We'll be right

How my arithmetic mac

Looks close to my figures Winner, and generally in line with what Pacific Edge have told us.

On the revenue side, in that two year timeframe, there's prospectively the rollover of the KP user programme, plus anymore prospective user programmes that may come along, plus potentially a partnership agreement on Cxcolorectal and/or a melanoma test.

Any one of those several revenue propositions alone may provide that $10M in revenue cover.

Nothing's for sure just like any business startup there are always risks, for now though, the prospects seem to look ok to me, certainly a lot better than many, or even most, of the pre-profitability offerings on the NZX at present.

regards, Mac