TIL - Trilogy [formerly ECO - Ecoya]

[kiora]

In my view can easily see EBITA $24m next year ,EPS 22.5c/share minimum

This is without any upside allowed for Ecoya,Trilogy,Goodness increase (allow 30 % upside in these brands?)

[Snow Leopard]

The companies future outlook reads as 'blowed if we know what is going to happen' to me.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: Hold too few

[percy]

The companies future outlook reads as 'blowed if we know what is going to happen' to me.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: Hold too few

Seems to have worked a treat so far.

holding; just enough.! "WP'd"

[winner69]

Not a bad day share price wise

Once the news that they are taking these confident strides forward gets around the share price will continue its meteoric rise

[blobbles]

I notice in one of their releases they state "One ECOYA product is now sold every 23 seconds around the world", I would emphasise the NOW part... every 23 seconds, that's ~1.3 million a year being sold at current rates.

Quick look at the ECOYA website, they have 345 items for sale... bit of excel wizardry... and came up with the attached.

OneEvery23Secs2.JPG

Basically a breakdown of the range of the cost of each item on their website, giving a decent distribution. Say their sales match the cost distribution (unlikely, but hey why not :-) ) and you can get a reasonable idea of what their current revenue is for the ECOYA brand. Note I have assumed a lower, not middle figure as a multiplier for the revenue figure, just to be conservative. HOWEVER, this would only be true if they sold to the distribution pattern AND sold everything via their website. Neither is true, but its a bit of fun for a Friday night. The biggest thing affecting these figures I am sure, would be that they supply their goods to resellers for a LOT less than I have indicated. But even if you knock 25% off this figure, they still would have increased from 20.1m to 30m since last year...

[Balance]

.......yes indeed ....but slightly below expectations (at least what I had in my DCF model)

Time for a breather, W69.

Suspect TIL has left plenty of earnings upside left in the tank for FY2017.

These boys know how to play the under-promise but over-deliver game with the market.

[percy]

Time for a breather, W69.

Suspect TIL has left plenty of earnings upside left in the tank for FY2017.

These boys know how to play the under-promise but over-deliver game with the market.

Totally agree.!

[winner69]

Segment analysis

Really ****ty (v hype) last 6 months in Australia - lower sales growth than H1 and made no more profit than same half last year.

Thats how I see it anyhow

[winner69]

Segment stuff.

Sales outside of ANZ increased from $8.3m last year to $13.0m this year.

An extra $4.7m sales ($2.0m) ebitda) isn't that much (after all Trilogy is a $0.25 billion company) but does highlight what might be if they get any decent traction outside of ANZ.

[winner69]

Let's see the annual report, I imagine any additional ecoya sales will flow directly through to the bottom line. They have had to spend up large re marketing to get a presence but this should pay off on the basis they increase sales.

Seen the Ecoya sales out of Australia yet boysy - up $1.2m on pcp in H1 but only $0.7m in H2 on pcp.

Not much of an increase?