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11-01-2017, 10:57 AM
#381
Originally Posted by macduffy
I think we'll have to wait and see on that. While HNA Group may or may not be more competitive than ANZ on the loan side in this business segment, HNA may find that it also needs to pay a little more for its local funding if UDC depositors become uncomfortable about the loss of the "moral comfort" of ANZ's parentage.
Take a look at how UDC was financed at balance date Macduffy.
|
FY2016 |
UDC Shareholder Capital |
$423.247m |
ANZ Committed Credit Facility |
$595.000m |
Debenture Investments From Public |
$1,591.711m |
As a result of the purchase announced today, that UDC shareholder capital will pass to HNA.
From the Financial Report for FY2016 we learn that the amount of the ANZ committed facility was increased to $1,800m on 24th November 2016. (post balance date). That gives a headroom facility of:
$1,800m - $595m = $1,205m
I reckon that is more than enough to repay all maturing debentures until the deal goes through in the second half of FY2017. ANZ have agreed to fund UDC with a loan as low as 3% until the takeover date. Then the Chinese will be able to use their muscle to keep funding this finance company at unrealistically low interest rates until the competition cracks. The Chinese could continue a borrowing program in New Zealand. But with their own cheaper finance from offshore, why would they? I think it is all over for UDC debenture investors and potentially very stiff competition coming to other 'local' finance companies, including Heartland Bank!
SNOOPY
Last edited by Snoopy; 11-01-2017 at 11:11 AM.
Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7
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11-01-2017, 11:13 AM
#382
Am I reading my highlighting correctly? Is "replacement of the secured investment program" code for all existing debenture holders being paid out, and all funding to come from the Chinese in future?
Could be. It could also mean getting investors to accept an alternative form of secured investment. Or something else.
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11-01-2017, 11:16 AM
#383
Originally Posted by Snoopy
I think it is all over for UDC debenture investors and potentially very stiff competition coming to other 'local' finance companies, including Heartland Bank!
SNOOPY
HBL investors heading for the hills in panic (not) - 4,928 shares sold so far this morning!
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11-01-2017, 11:48 AM
#384
Originally Posted by pierre
HBL investors heading for the hills in panic (not) - 4,928 shares sold so far this morning!
Probably relieved as anything in that Jeff did not got over excited and over pay for UDC
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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11-01-2017, 12:23 PM
#385
Originally Posted by winner69
Probably relieved as anything in that Jeff did not got over excited and over pay for UDC
So very true,however,for reasons best known to ANZ, Jeff never got a look in.
Pity as I think HBL/UDC would have been good for NZ.
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11-01-2017, 01:49 PM
#386
Originally Posted by percy
So very true,however,for reasons best known to ANZ, Jeff never got a look in.
Pity as I think HBL/UDC would have been good for NZ.
Did HBL ever approach ANZ and make a bid for UDC? If so, I must have missed that somehow.
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11-01-2017, 02:06 PM
#387
Originally Posted by macduffy
Did HBL ever approach ANZ and make a bid for UDC? If so, I must have missed that somehow.
At HBL's agm they said they had approached ANZ,but never heard back from them.
The Chairman told me after the meeting, they expected ANZ were selling it to the Chinese.
Although Heartland always said they would be keen to buy UDC,I got the impression they did not seem to be concerned to be missing out.
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11-01-2017, 02:34 PM
#388
Thanks, percy. Perhaps the vibe was that the Chinese group was going to offer more than HBL was prepared to pay? Overall, I don't see the change of UDC ownership as a negative as far as HBL is concerned.
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11-01-2017, 03:50 PM
#389
ANZ.NZ Loan Book Classifications FY2016
Originally Posted by Snoopy
One year on and we look at the chances of default for ANZ.NZ mortgages and ANZ.NZ other retail loans.
http://www.anz.co.nz/about-us/media-...r-information/
(page 53 of the ANZ NZ September 30th 2015 Reserve Bank disclosure).
|
For retail mortgages: 30-09-2013 |
For retail mortgages: 30-09-2014 |
For retail mortgages: 30-09-2015 |
Grades 0-3: |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
Grades 4: |
0.46% |
0.46% |
0.46% |
Grade 5: |
0.93% |
0.93% |
0.92% |
Grade 6: |
2.11% |
2.04% |
2.02% |
Grade 7,8: |
5.40% |
5.24% |
5.27% |
|
For other retail: 30-09-2013 |
For other retail: 30-09-2014 |
For other retail: 30-09-2015 |
Grades 0-2: |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Grades 3-4: |
0.29% |
0.30% |
0.26% |
Grade 5: |
1.12% |
1.13% |
1.00% |
Grade 6: |
2.67% |
2.60% |
2.39% |
Grade 7,8: |
11.25% |
9.56% |
8.79% |
Overall observation? A continuing small risk reduction from year to year in the higher risk categories (mostly Grade 6 and above).
SNOOPY
One year on and we look at the chances of default for ANZ.NZ mortgages and ANZ.NZ other retail loans.
http://www.anz.co.nz/about-us/media-...r-information/
(The following tables are updated from page 53 of the ANZ NZ September 30th 2016 Reserve Bank disclosure).
|
For retail mortgages: 30-09-2012 |
For retail mortgages: 30-09-2013 |
For retail mortgages: 30-09-2014 |
For retail mortgages: 30-09-2015 |
For retail mortgages: 30-09-2016 |
Grades 0-3: |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
Grades 4: |
0.46% |
0.46% |
0.46% |
0.46% |
0.46% |
Grade 5: |
0.93% |
0.93% |
0.93% |
0.92% |
0.92% |
Grade 6: |
2.12% |
2.11% |
2.04% |
2.02% |
2.00% |
Grade 7,8: |
5.35% |
5.40% |
5.24% |
5.27% |
5.13% |
|
For other retail: 30-09-2012 |
For other retail: 30-09-2013 |
For other retail: 30-09-2014 |
For other retail: 30-09-2015 |
For other retail: 30-09-2016 |
Grades 0-2: |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Grades 3-4: |
0.29% |
0.29% |
0.30% |
0.26% |
0.26% |
Grade 5: |
1.10% |
1.12% |
1.13% |
1.00% |
0.99% |
Grade 6: |
2.50% |
2.67% |
2.60% |
2.39% |
2.11% |
Grade 7,8: |
10.07% |
11.25% |
9.56% |
8.79% |
7.86% |
Overall observation? A continuing small risk reduction from year to year in the higher risk categories (mostly Grade 6 and above). Yet despite the reserve bank telling us of the risks of an inflated housing market, ANZ are seeing less risk in their retail mortgages than last year. I find that a bit strange.
SNOOPY
Last edited by Snoopy; 11-01-2017 at 04:19 PM.
Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7
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11-01-2017, 04:06 PM
#390
Originally Posted by Snoopy
Overall observation? A continuing small risk reduction from year to year in the higher risk categories (mostly Grade 6 and above). Yet despite the reserve bank telling us of the risks of an inflated housing market, ANZ are seeing less risk in their retail mortgages than last year. I find that a bit strange.
SNOOPY
Possibly a result of increased restrictions around home loan lending?
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