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31-05-2018, 05:46 PM
#1301
Originally Posted by couta1
After you sell all your SML, youll be taking your wife out to a flash restaurant.
That’s a really good idea Couta. We should celebrate it. I’ll let you know how it goes !
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31-05-2018, 07:22 PM
#1302
Just to be fair, I have posted the following on anohter forum
While people have been focusing on the MSCI index inclusion today I have been asking questions of Synlait.
Their response in my view is a total crock of sh1te, totally unhelpful as an investor and totally inadequate.
I have asked a series of questions about M Bovis on farms that supply Synlait. They will not respond to my questions siting (with no reference) an agreement with MPI not to publish information that might breach the privacy of the farmer.
So lets be very clear. I did not ask for personal information that would identify a private individual. Further more MPI has already named one farmer – the one in the Waikato. MPI are also encouraging farmers to talk to their neighbours and fellow farmers. Personal information is either private or its not. If it is you don’t go talking to your neighbours. Additionally, I could go to any mid Canterbury pub and find out the information. And if that failed all I need to do is drive down the roads and look for the signs stuck on fences and gates.
Anyone who hides behind the Privacy Act has, in my view something to hide. So what is Synlait hiding. The only thing I can think of is that they have at least one farm (out of the seven so far identified in Mid Canterbury) which is infected. For me it is now not a matter of if, its how many.
I have no confidence that the governments plan to eradicate will work. I have not heard any information for Synlait giving me confidence their suppliers are not affected. Given Synlaits South Island 200 or so suppliers are within 80km of their plant and within an infection zone I am concerned. Given they arel ooking for suppliers in the Waikato where there is also an outbreak I am concerned. Given apparent known stock movements in these areas I am concerned.
I’d point out that Synlait were very quick to quell market concerns about ATM;s agreement with Fonterra. Their silence on this matter concerns me.
Disc. I hold both ATM and SML. Both sets of capital are now under preservation review with an immediate tightening of stop losses.
Last edited by minimoke; 31-05-2018 at 07:53 PM.
Reason: spacing
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31-05-2018, 07:42 PM
#1303
Hi MM
They also don't drink & invest
Re " Further more MPI has already namedone farmer – the one in the Waikato"
Henk Smit actually stood up himself at a farmer meeting & said his farm was affected
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01-06-2018, 08:37 AM
#1304
Originally Posted by minimoke
I have no confidence that the governments plan to eradicate will work. I have not heard any information for Synlait giving me confidence their suppliers are not affected. Given Synlaits South Island 200 or so suppliers are within 80km of their plant and within an infection zone I am concerned. Given they arel ooking for suppliers in the Waikato where there is also an outbreak I am concerned. Given apparent known stock movements in these areas I am concerned.
M.Bovis is sure a vexed topic for many.
However, I'm not sure your fears for SYM (and ATM) are justified;
1.) If M.Bovis is already established in most other countries, then it is more than likely ATM suppliers of Fresh Milk in UK, USA and Australia are already 'contaminated'. I'm not aware that this has been an issue for them in those countries.
2.) I liken M.Bovis to a 'weakness' that means infected cows are more likely to get (say) arthritis. This may mean less 'healthy' cows, but it doesn't effect the milk or the meat.
3.) In the end, ensuring their cows are more 'healthy' by selective breading and culling will impose costs on farmers, but again this does not effect milk quality.
4.) Famers seeking to mitigate their costs as they move to more 'healthy' herds are more likely to use this culling as an opportunity to move to A2 cows (because of the improved returns this offers.) Hence increasing supply opportunities for ATM and SYM.
Just my Left Field thoughts....DYOR.
Last edited by Leftfield; 01-06-2018 at 08:55 AM.
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01-06-2018, 08:55 AM
#1305
Originally Posted by Left field
M.Bovis is sure a vexed topic for many.
However, I'm not sure your fears for SYM (and ATM) are justified;
1.) If M.Bovis is already established in most other countries, then it is more than likely ATM suppliers of Fresh Milk in UK, USA and Australia are already 'contaminated'. I'm not aware that this has been an issue for them in those countries.
2.) I liken M.Bovis to a 'weakness' that means infected cows are more likely to get (say) arthritis. This may mean less 'healthy' cows, but it doesn't effect the milk or the meat.
3.) In the end, ensuring their cows are more 'healthy' by selective breading and culling will impose costs on farmers, but again this does not effect milk quality.
4.) Framers seeking to mitigate their costs as they move to more 'healthy' herds are more likely to use this culling as an opportunity to move to A2 cows (because of the improved returns this offers.) Hence increasing supply opportunities for ATM and SYM.
Just my Left Field thoughts....DYOR.
M Bovis is a risk I am not so much concerned about. What concerns me is the failure by Synlait to inform the market of risk or management of their supply line during a time of a national cow crisis. As owners of the company give us the information and let us make decision based on that information. Don't leave us uninformed.
Its easy to be swept along on a wave of market euphoria. It takes your eye off the ball. We should not be investing on euphoria - it should be on the basis if a fully informed market.
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01-06-2018, 09:13 AM
#1306
Originally Posted by minimoke
M Bovis is a risk I am not so much concerned about. What concerns me is the failure by Synlait to inform the market of risk or management of their supply line during a time of a national cow crisis. As owners of the company give us the information and let us make decision based on that information. Don't leave us uninformed.
Its easy to be swept along on a wave of market euphoria. It takes your eye off the ball. We should not be investing on euphoria - it should be on the basis if a fully informed market.
Like that good old song says, Take the Money and Run, after all you are sitting on big profits so if it really concerns you then exit.
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01-06-2018, 10:09 AM
#1307
Originally Posted by couta1
Like that good old song says, Take the Money and Run, after all you are sitting on big profits so if it really concerns you then exit.
There also a saying "Let your winners a run and cut your losses short". I'm not about to cut off my nose to spite my face.
It is not a matter of exiting. I never base a buy / sell investment decision on one factor. Its about information and risk. The more information the better able I am able to measure risk. And vice versa. Traders are much better suited to trading euphoria and an information vacuum. But that's not me. Stop losses have been tightened.
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01-06-2018, 10:47 AM
#1308
Hi minimoke,
Thanks for airing your concerns. I am not concerned as I think the loss in milk production won't be material and I think Synlait will continue to gain market share from Fonterra.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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01-06-2018, 11:12 AM
#1309
Originally Posted by Beagle
Hi minimoke,
Thanks for airing your concerns. I am not concerned as I think the loss in milk production won't be material and I think Synlait will continue to gain market share from Fonterra.
That is not my concern. My concern is a company that I don't think is updating the market on related information. We don't know if 1/200 of their suppliers are infected or 7/200 are. Mid Canterbury (and Waikato ) is absolutely riddled with farms identified as at risk through the tracing of animal movement. We dont know what the risk is because they aren't telling us. You may be happy in an information vacuum. I am measuring my risk with that vacuum. ( I also have an eye on MPI who I have pretty much zero faith in - take didymo for example Or wine for another)
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01-06-2018, 11:57 AM
#1310
Never happy in an information vacuum but I've already taken steps to manage my exposure to risk, see latest comment in TNR thread.
I don't see it as a "material" risk. Materiality is defined in accounting standards to mean greater than or equal to 5% of net profit.
Even 7 / 200 is 3.5% and even if it is that high its not like all that 3.5% milk supply is going to stop overnight is it and farms after treatment only have to stay fallow for 60 days ! Plenty of new calves born every year for restocking mate. I think the media are whipping this up into something bigger than it really is...that's my 2 cents anyway but I do acknowledge you're closer to the problem so probably have a better handle on it.
I guess there's a huge amount of sensitivity about who is and who isn't affected which is why they can't possibly make more information public ?
Farmers down your way probably have other things on their mind today https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/natio...cid=spartandhp
Last edited by Beagle; 01-06-2018 at 12:06 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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