AIR - Air NZ.

[Beagle]

Lease ...would you change your view if EPS coming up is around the 2011/2012 mark

Interestingly for 2009 and the three subsequent years after the GFC eps averaged just 5.9 cps. L shaped recovery.
Put a PE of even 13 on that and you're around 75 cents...which funnily enough even though there was no bailout, this was where the share price was for some of that time.

History never repeats, or does it ?

Here's the chart AIRchart.jpg No idea what future eps is going to be so I will stick with TA and will need to see a 3 day break above the 30 day MA before putting on a half sized long position and the same with the 100 day MA to put back on a full position which might be twice the normal size because by then this cyclical will be bounding away on its next up cycle. I am sure the key to this stock is working the cycles. I'll leave others to try and bottom pick with no TA signals and good luck to them, they'll need it !

[winner69]

Interestingly for 2009 and the three subsequent years after the GFC eps averaged just 5.9 cps. L shaped recovery.
Put a PE of even 13 on that and you're around 75 cents...which funnily enough even though there was no bailout, this was where the share price was for some of that time.

History never repeats, or does it ?

With AIR low EPS means high PE ...and vice versa

So EPS of 6 cents could see a share price of $1

Even that’s half of where it is today

[biker]

AIR NZ is now quite a nimble airline with some very skilled management.
The current slow down is almost convenient with 787s already on the ground.
Eventually this too will pass.
Bookings will come back, cash flow will return strongly as travellers catch up with postponed travel, and Company insurance cover will be encouraging reluctant travellers already.
If fuel prices settle at a lower level than last year, significant cost savings will come through as hedges and collars expire and are re- established.
Yes, there will be a significant short term hit to profits, and yes this is a business with fine margins but with an emphasis on short term, when this passes, profit will return rapidly. Yes, reduced dividends are highly possible but a share price of $1 and a 1:1 cash issue is absurd.
AIR have many levers to pull on cost reduction and they really haven’t even started internally yet.
They will also be adjusting to other operator’s withdrawal of services and capitalising where possible.
I’m not invested in AIR. Just entertained by the strident and dare I say it, extreme, views on this forum dependant on whether individuals are long or short.

[BlackPeter]

AIR NZ is now quite a nimble airline with some very skilled management.

Interesting statement. Just wondering how you are measuring "Nimble with very skilled management"

Based on a huge number of well overpaid managers and staff and some recent changes in the management team would I think that "overweight and losing experience" might be a more appropriate description.

[causecelebre]

I don't think that AIR is underwriting this insurance ... however it found an insurer who does :

AIR have a long standing relationship with Covermore. AIR just clip the ticket (and the social media kudos apparently)

[Beagle]

Just because some can't foresee it doesn't mean its absurd. Some rather inconvenient facts is AIR were well below $1 in the GFC. The last bailout in 2001 required $885m ($1,344m in today's money), and resulted from a short sharp shock to demand from 9/11. The shock to demand this time is shaping up to be far more enduring and a 1:1 cash issue at $1 would raise just $1,123m in today's money, 16% less in real inflation adjusted terms than last time in 2001. (Pretty obvious their cost structure has gone up by just a "little bit" in the last 19 years !)

AIR operations are primarily very high fixed cost and no amount of lever pulling, (AKA rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic), will help if they hit the iceberg of demand falling of the face of a cliff and staying there for many, many months on end.

But no worries because Cindy said she's going to help business's affected by this virus so we can trust her and everything is going to be fine Where's my Tui ?

CDC now telling at risk people to avoid air travel ! https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12315665

[biker]

Interesting statement. Just wondering how you are measuring "Nimble with very skilled management"

Based on a huge number of well overpaid managers and staff and some recent changes in the management team would I think that "overweight and losing experience" might be a more appropriate description.

You have edited my post to suit your argument.
You removed ‘some’ from my original post. I wrote some and I meant some. Please don’t misquote me.

[biker]

Just because some can't foresee it doesn't mean its absurd. Some rather inconvenient facts is AIR were well below $1 in the GFC. The last bailout in 2001 required $885m ($1,344m in today's money), and resulted from a short sharp shock to demand from 9/11. The shock to demand this time is shaping up to be far more enduring and a 1:1 cash issue at $1 would raise just $1,123m in today's money, 16% less in real inflation adjusted terms than last time in 2001. (Pretty obvious their cost structure has gone up by just a "little bit" in the last 19 years !)

AIR operations are primarily very high fixed cost and no amount of lever pulling, (AKA rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic), will help if they hit the iceberg of demand falling of the face of a cliff and staying there for many, many months on end.

But no worries because Cindy said she's going to help business's affected by this virus so we can trust her and everything is going to be fine Where's my Tui ?

This is simply not true Beagle and you know it. The bailout resulted from AIR owning 100% of Ansett and Ansett going broke. Air NZ itself subsequently went broke.
Granted 9/11 didn’t help but absolutely no similarity to the Airline of today or the crisis of today.
Quite a misleading post I’m afraid.

[winner69]

Just because some can't foresee it doesn't mean its absurd. Some rather inconvenient facts is AIR were well below $1 in the GFC. The last bailout in 2001 required $885m ($1,344m in today's money), and resulted from a short sharp shock to demand from 9/11. The shock to demand this time is shaping up to be far more enduring and a 1:1 cash issue at $1 would raise just $1,123m in today's money, 16% less in real inflation adjusted terms than last time in 2001. (Pretty obvious their cost structure has gone up by just a "little bit" in the last 19 years !)

AIR operations are primarily very high fixed cost and no amount of lever pulling, (AKA rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic), will help if they hit the iceberg of demand falling of the face of a cliff and staying there for many, many months on end.

But no worries because Cindy said she's going to help business's affected by this virus so we can trust her and everything is going to be fine Where's my Tui ?

CDC now telling at risk people to avoid air travel ! https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12315665

Jeez Beagle ..you trying really really hard to get the price down eh ....you’ll put the fear of god into everybody ....I had to read that long article to very end to see mention of planes ....and then it was only a pretty general common sense warning

[Blue Skies]

AIR NZ is now quite a nimble airline with some very skilled management.
The current slow down is almost convenient with 787s already on the ground.
Eventually this too will pass.
Bookings will come back, cash flow will return strongly as travellers catch up with postponed travel, and Company insurance cover will be encouraging reluctant travellers already.
If fuel prices settle at a lower level than last year, significant cost savings will come through as hedges and collars expire and are re- established.
Yes, there will be a significant short term hit to profits, and yes this is a business with fine margins but with an emphasis on short term, when this passes, profit will return rapidly. Yes, reduced dividends are highly possible but a share price of $1 and a 1:1 cash issue is absurd.
AIR have many levers to pull on cost reduction and they really haven’t even started internally yet.
They will also be adjusting to other operator’s withdrawal of services and capitalising where possible.
I’m not invested in AIR. Just entertained by the strident and dare I say it, extreme, views on this forum dependant on whether individuals are long or short.

Great post Biker.