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“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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 Originally Posted by winner69
I haven't red that one but have been reading a lot of them recently.
I'm actually quite impressed by what Orr is saying today, and I comment that I am increasingly unimpressed with how niggardly Reddell is in his criticisms. A real croaker as he calls himself. I think he must have a bee in his bonnet about something..... Very knowledgeable and thorough though.
For clarity, nothing I say is advice....
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in my opinion the govt is causing the pain, the RBNZ cannot fix it, but the govt can.
There is no evidence to support the lockdown.
For clarity, nothing I say is advice....
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Originally Posted by peat
in my opinion the govt is causing the pain, the RBNZ cannot fix it, but the govt can.
There is no evidence to support the lockdown.
Well said. Totally agree with this sentiment.
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Originally Posted by peat
in my opinion the govt is causing the pain, the RBNZ cannot fix it, but the govt can.
There is no evidence to support the lockdown.
The entire world has shut down without a shred of evidence to support it? Possibly the results in countries such as Italy, Spain and now possibly the US would indicate some sort of evidence in support of the lock down?
Are we to assume just about the entire world leadership from China to the US to NZ have locked down everything on a whim without any evidence?
Or are you suggesting the cure may be worse than the disease or possibly you don't give a s**t about old people dying. You and blackcap might be right but we will never know as just about the whole world has decided a lock down is the best option. I thought the UK was going to go with the herd immunity but they changed their minds for some reason. Either they flipped a coin and changed their minds or they were presented with some evidence that a lock down and social distancing was a better option. There is pain either way physical or financial it depends what is most important to you people or money?
If the lock down pricks the debt bubble that will ensure additional economic pain but if the virus was allowed to spread exponentially the eventual drop off in customers may have had as big an economic impact anyway. a 2% loss of customers plus a likely reduction in people going out anyway.
Sorry I might be getting off topic.
Last edited by Aaron; 02-04-2020 at 04:33 PM.
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Originally Posted by Aaron
a 2% loss of customers plus a likely reduction in people going out anyway.
Sorry I might be getting off topic.
Those figures are so not correct. It's 2% of confirmed cases. But not 2% of population. Diamond Princess, 3770 people on board, 10 deaths. 0.265% death rate there. That is a population rate.
But as Peat said, not the correct thread.
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Originally Posted by blackcap
Those figures are so not correct. It's 2% of confirmed cases. But not 2% of population. Diamond Princess, 3770 people on board, 10 deaths. 0.265% death rate there. That is a population rate.
But as Peat said, not the correct thread.
Sorry can't help myself.
Thanks for calling out my fake news with the 2%. Although your analysis seems overly simplistic as I don't think everyone on board caught the virus but thanks for the optimistic outlook.
As of February 20, tests of most of the 3,711 people aboard the Diamond Princess confirmed that 634, or 17 percent, had the virus; 328 of them did not have symptoms at the time of diagnosis. Of those with symptoms, the fatality ratio was 1.9 percent, Russell and colleagues calculate. Of all infected, that ratio was 0.91 percent. Those 70 and older were most vulnerable, with an overall fatality ratio of about 7.3 percent.
Extrapolating those numbers to China, the team estimates that 1.1 percent of symptomatic cases there turned deadly. Considering asymptomatic cases drops that ratio to about 0.5 percent in China, the team calculates.
The Diamond Princess seems like a good way to judge how deadly the virus is as they tested everyone. If the above is not also fake news then 2% is only for those who become symptomatic. Including asymptomatic people this drops to 1% so half I what I said. and even at .5% in China not quite double what you are suggesting.
I stand corrected but you might want to get your facts straight as well.
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Reading the last post I can see why macduffy is shepherding me around to a relevant thread.
Adrian Orr and low interest rates and easy money is really getting some headlines lately.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...DJ7NCDFPGUMYA/
I would have voted Social Credit if I thought it was a good idea. I guess the reserve bank buying the govt bonds off the banks provides some income for the trading banks while interest rates are so low.
Adrian Orr has his hands tied as he has suggested. The govt is the only one who can provide real change. Reduce the Reserve Banks inflation target to zero%.
I am also confused Adrian Orr says the interest rate suppression is to ensure full employment yet in the news I hear that we import workers for the fishing industry, harvesting and farming. Also I heard a plan to train inmates to drive as we have a driver shortage. Someone is bullshi**ing. Is it Adrian or business leaders, or is Adrian seeing something worse coming down the road.
Economists predictions earlier this year of a 10% fall in house prices don't appear to have been that prescient either.
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