Quote Originally Posted by SylvesterCat View Post
I cannot for the life of me fathom how anyone who has done a simple analysis of Z is "perplexed" by the fall in share price....



Seriously, the Herald paywall is worth it.
The estimate in the article is based on a 50% reduction in Jet Fuel demand. Likely to be a lot more at Alert level 2 or 3. Beagle, your comment on debt in an earlier post is also valid. Purchase of Caltex (mostly debt) at a time of high margins => high asset values. Margins are now low, therefore asset value not there.
(Disclosure: author of article)

As an aside - I can't work out why people on this thread think fuel prices are too high. May have been true a year or two ago, I seriously doubt it right now. It is a long-run cyclical industry, and, yes times have been good for the last 7-8 years for the petrol companies. But the 15 years before that were garbage. And the next 10 years...well....they are not likely to be great. Only need to look at the state of Z's P&L right now to work that one out.
Jet fuel demand will be just a few percent now. Plenty of price gouging going on. Local Z wanted $1.97 for 91 octane yesterday which is absolutely scandalous for where oil is currently priced. That's how Z are able to meet their previous guidance. Massive price gouging. "Z is for New Zealand". Yeah right.