PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[whatsup]

One would have to say that PEB's dark and scarry days are behind it, there should be many more of announcements such as were released today coming in the future months and years.

[pierre]

I'm inclined to agree with your comment and a lot of hard work has gone into getting PEB to where it is today. This has gone sideways since I first purchased nearly 10 years ago. Just wanted to query 2 things:

1. $5/share is based on what exactly?
2. "The rewards they deserve" - the company is currently priced well above what its actual financial results suggest is reasonable. The valuation gap is based on hot air, yes there are very positive signs in that hot air, but delivery on targets and results is what will see PEB's share price climb. Until delivery happens, PEB deserves to be priced based on their past which is underdelivering on overly ambitious targets.

Haha. Your question #1 is very wise and proves that nobody should necessarily believe everything they read on ST.

A $5.00 SP is my just reward for backing the company through thick and thin for the past nine years, including supporting numerous cash raises and coping with all the angst and BS on this site! There's no science at all attached to the number - it's simply plucked out of the air and I have no idea at all if or when it might be achieved - but we are all allowed to dream.

As for Q2 - it's all about the potential and everyone will have their own view on where this company is headed. I don't know where the SP will land - but I'm certain the overall trajectory is "up". However, I'm equally sure that the roller coaster experience will occur every time there's a good (or bad) news announcement. I'm simply staying buckled in for the ride.

[Mel]

As this has come out of left field so to speak this might be an opportune time to refresh a few memories on some expected events in the near future.

This may only be a partial list.

An expected payment of CMS tests completed prior to inclusion by CMS, or part thereof.

Confirmation of the Johns Hopkins Commercial assessment and what their findings are.

A Clinical study from Kaiser published.

A Clinical study from Singapore published.

A Definitive end of year result published in May that will show the rate of acceptance and payment across the board for the last 6 months.

This should create some additional momentum, I've held on for many years and starting to see some great returns now - my only regret is that I sold a small parcel of shares for a very small profit a couple of years ago. The succession of good news bodes well in the event of an eventual takeover.

[Minerbarejet]

This should create some additional momentum, I've held on for many years and starting to see some great returns now - my only regret is that I sold a small parcel of shares for a very small profit a couple of years ago. The succession of good news bodes well in the event of an eventual takeover.

There is also a medium to long term list some of which hinges on the success of cxBladder.

I feel that a certain amount of some of the following is already accounted for in the SP as it appears to be out of whack with results

An announcement regarding the 4th Resolve test launching in the USA

Achieving a continuous profit.

Accumulating sufficient profits in order to speed up the advance of the substantial pipeline of other tests under development.

Payment of a dividend.

Building of further laboratories.

Any takeover may require divestment of the cxbladder division alone as a separate entity leaving the pipeline in Pacific Edge's hands.


More to this than immediately meets the eye.

Opinion only and not financial advice.

[calledone]

After digesting the significance of this announcement I feel this is much bigger than I initially thought. Someone please correct me if I’m wrong.

United healthcare is 4+ times larger than kaiser permanente with 5.7million medicare advantage patients. So if we say they take the cxBladder test once a year(since its “medically necessary”) thats around nz$6 Billion in revenue(taking US$760 per test).

United healthcare has partnership with 1.3 million physicians whereas KP only had 23k so even if not all 5.7million patients take the test, the chance of utilising this test is significantly greater. Even if only a 3rd took the test that would be nz$2 Billion in revenue.

Is this a reasonable assumption?

Success breeds more success and I think David Darling’s aspirations of global domination might have has taken a giant leap forward! now that more insurers and physicians around the world are going to take notice.

[Mel]

After digesting the significance of this announcement I feel this is much bigger than I initially thought. Someone please correct me if I’m wrong.

United healthcare is 4+ times larger than kaiser permanente with 5.7million medicare advantage patients. So if we say they take the cxBladder test once a year(since its “medically necessary”) thats around nz$6 Billion in revenue(taking US$760 per test).

United healthcare has partnership with 1.3 million physicians whereas KP only had 23k so even if not all 5.7million patients take the test, the chance of utilising this test is significantly greater. Even if only a 3rd took the test that would be nz$2 Billion in revenue.

Is this a reasonable assumption?
Success breeds more success and I think David Darling’s aspirations of global domination might have has taken a giant leap forward! now that more insurers and physicians around the world are going to take notice.

I expect that 'medically necessary' is in context of those at risk or those who are currently symptomatic, so your revenue forecasts are rather optimistic - your relative assessment of Kaiser vs United patients is valid. Ultimately, we are looking for the revenue that we should be seeing from the reimbursements, so that needs to be the next material update IMHO - I've been waiting for this for a while!

[Minerbarejet]

After digesting the significance of this announcement I feel this is much bigger than I initially thought. Someone please correct me if I’m wrong.

United healthcare is 4+ times larger than kaiser permanente with 5.7million medicare advantage patients. So if we say they take the cxBladder test once a year(since its “medically necessary”) thats around nz$6 Billion in revenue(taking US$760 per test).

United healthcare has partnership with 1.3 million physicians whereas KP only had 23k so even if not all 5.7million patients take the test, the chance of utilising this test is significantly greater. Even if only a 3rd took the test that would be nz$2 Billion in revenue.

Is this a reasonable assumption?

Success breeds more success and I think David Darling’s aspirations of global domination might have has taken a giant leap forward! now that more insurers and physicians around the world are going to take notice.

Whew! Some parts are right, mate.
You are about right with the total that United is 4 times bigger than Kaiser (and thus nearly equivalent to CMS)

Doubtful there is any intention to test patients for bladder cancer as a screening process generally overall.
cxBladder Triage will be useful for persons presenting with haematuria to rule out bladder cancer.
So therefore there would have to be some possible symptoms appearing first.
Apparently there are some 2,000,000 presentations for that in the entire US medical scene annually.
There are also some 800,000 patients requiring ongoing monitoring for recurrence following a bladder cancer operation.
These are in some cases carried out 2 or 3 times a year over 5 years
If PEB was lucky enough to get 5% of the total cases (100,000 + (40,000 x 2)) 180,000 tests @ 750.00US makes for USD135,000,000
By the way things are going there would be a requirement for additional lab space if this played out.
Interesting times but I wouldnt hang my hat on getting 5.7 million patients in a hurry.

This also raises the question as to what the other 95% are using for tests
Cheers
Miner

[calledone]

Thanks guys for the clarifications. The “medically necessary” term threw me off my expectations I had prior to this news lol. But very significant news nonetheless!

[Leftfield]

Whew! Some parts are right, mate.
You are about right with the total that United is 4 times bigger than Kaiser (and thus nearly equivalent to CMS)

Doubtful there is any intention to test patients for bladder cancer as a screening process generally overall.
cxBladder Triage will be useful for persons presenting with haematuria to rule out bladder cancer.
So therefore there would have to be some possible symptoms appearing first.
Apparently there are some 2,000,000 presentations for that in the entire US medical scene annually.
There are also some 800,000 patients requiring ongoing monitoring for recurrence following a bladder cancer operation.
These are in some cases carried out 2 or 3 times a year over 5 years
If PEB was lucky enough to get 5% of the total cases (100,000 + (40,000 x 2)) 180,000 tests @ 750.00US makes for USD135,000,000
By the way things are going there would be a requirement for additional lab space if this played out.
Interesting times but I wouldnt hang my hat on getting 5.7 million patients in a hurry.

This also raises the question as to what the other 95% are using for tests
Cheers
Miner

Miner, just wanted to say that over many years you have shared a lot of useful info' on PEB (not without some acrimony from some quarters at times.) Many of us are 'well positioned' thanks to your efforts. My sincere thanks.

ps can't help thinking 10% market share is possible/achievable for PEB, but it won't happen overnight. Exciting times.

[Minerbarejet]

Possibly interpret it as " was it medically necessary" (paying out on a test already done) rather than "is it medically necessary" for a test about to be utilized.