SUM - Summerset Group

[Ggcc]

Well done Summerset in repaying the wage subsidy

After all Summerset was in a stable financial position and the business outlook was positive......so didn't really need it
Also very noble. Well done Summerset

[Balance]

yes good update and there paying back the wage subsidy. put more pressure on other companies that have not.

You mean put pressure on Trevor Mallard?

[iceman]

Nice last job by Rob Campbell for Summerset repaying the wage subsidy. I'm sure more will follow.

[Balance]

Nice last job by Rob Campbell for Summerset repaying the wage subsidy. I'm sure more will follow.

What about Trevor Mallard?

[iceman]

What about Trevor Mallard?
He should follow Rob out the door.

[dobby41]

You mean put pressure on Trevor Mallard?

Nothing to do with Summerset.

[Gecko]

The market likes it. :t_up: Well done Summerset.

[peat]

........................... error

[peat]

Really ? How then have I managed to consistently outperform the market so comprehensively by adopting a value / GARP (Growth at a reasonable price) approach ?
Maybe I have just been consistently lucky...year after year after year after year ?...or is such a random consecutive yearly series of luck a plausible explanation for consistent market outperformance ?

Maybe its just a "hackneyed meaningless saying" in your opinion and earnings really do matter ? Whatever your theory mate, I will stick with mine because I know it works so well I'm not changing it !


just while you are talking about this aspect of your performance, and sorry for off topic everybody but I am curious as to what did you do with your VGL. I believe you had some around the time they were way up at the historical highs.

For the record I had a very few purchased at the highs but I tripled that holding during the lows because I could easily still without having more than a percent or two of portfolio involved

[Beagle]

It was wrong of me to skite.

VGL was a very, very small position in late 2018 that I subsequently decided upon refection did not meet my investment criteria. I closed that position out at basically break even.

Wishing Rob Campbell a long, healthy and happy retirement and also best wishes to Julian Cook with whatever path he chooses to tread next.

[peat]

It was wrong of me to skite.

VGL was a very small position in late 2018 that I subsequently decided upon refection did not meet my investment criteria. I closed out that position at basically break even.
cheers
If theres one person who can skite on this site then I would suggest it is you mate.... you've made some very excellent calls in the last few years here..... and I do, and I bet many others , take good note of your posts.

[Norwest]

yes good update and there paying back the wage subsidy. put more pressure on other companies that have not.

I'm neutral on whether companies should pay back the subsidy if they met the criteria defined at the time by the government, however this certainly puts a LOT of pressure and a microscope on OCA and RYM to follow suit after MET and now SUM paid back their subsidies.

[Beagle]

RYM have just caved in under the pressure, pandering to the politically correct lefties.

[bull....]

OCA brand wont look good if they dont pay back now

[RTM]

RYM have just caved in under the pressure, pandering to the politically correct lefties.

Personally I think that what you mean is that they have done the right thing.
But I'll leave it at that.

[Beagle]

OCA brand wont look good if they dont pay back now

No RTM, what I mean is what I said.

OCA took a very small amount of Govt subsidy only for a small part of their operations that were shuttered. I am confident that I know and understand their position on the matter and that they are very comfortable with it, as am I.

[bull....]

No RTM, what I mean is what I said.

OCA took a very small amount of Govt subsidy only for a small part of their operations that were shuttered. I am confident that I know and understand their position on the matter and that they are very comfortable with it, as am I.

so you and balance can join the oca people eating crayfish and drinking wine with the wage subsidy in hindsight they didnt really need. thats how they will look

[Bjauck]

OCA brand wont look good if they dont pay back now
There are winners and losers from the covid response. There are much bigger windfall winners than those involved in elderly and long term healthcare.

Moralized outrage should be reserved for appropriate causes.

[dobby41]

There are winners and losers from the covid response. There are much bigger windfall winners than those involved in elderly and long term healthcare.

Moralized outrage should be reserved for appropriate causes.

Similar but not the same - one comes directly from the Govt and tax payer whereas the other comes as a consequence of the Govts (or systems) actions.

[Bjauck]

Similar but not the same - one comes directly from the Govt and tax payer whereas the other comes as a consequence of the Govts (or systems) actions. Sure. However, which is more outrageous?

[dobby41]

Sure. However, which is more outrageous?

That is for the individual to decide where there 'moral outrage' lies.

[Balance]

[QUOTE=bull....;862577]so you and balance can join the oca people eating crayfish and drinking wine with the wage subsidy in hindsight they didnt really need. thats how they will look[/

And do I look like I care a hoot what the moral peasants & PC hypocrites think?

They are most welcome to kiss my backside and pay homage.

[James108]

At the end of the day $10m one off expense is neither hear nor there for a market cap of $2.5b.

[nztx]

Did I hear someone post back a while that SUM was over valued .. on here ? ;)

[bull....]

[QUOTE=bull....;862577]so you and balance can join the oca people eating crayfish and drinking wine with the wage subsidy in hindsight they didnt really need. thats how they will look[/

And do I look like I care a hoot what the moral peasants & PC hypocrites think?

They are most welcome to kiss my backside and pay homage.

i hope that live crayfish your getting nips your backside before you throw it in the pot

[RupertBear]

[QUOTE=Balance;862592]

i hope that live crayfish your getting nips your backside before you throw it in the pot

Funny :lol::lol::lol:

[bull....]

Retirement village operators Summerset and Ryman Healthcare to repay $22.8m in Covid-19 wage subsidies

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/123721687/retirement-village-operators-summerset-and-ryman-healthcare-to-repay-228m-in-covid19-wage-subsidies

Which NZX50 companies claimed the wage subsidy?


check out the table in the article has a full list

[Getty]

How people spend their own money, & who's butt they kiss is their prerogative.

All I ask for tho, is that when its time to put the live crays in the pot, the water is already fully boiling.
Witnessing the result of them going into cold or tepid water, to be bought up to boil is not a pretty sight.
Especially inside a kitchen, where despite chopping boards & other pots & pans heaped on top of the boil pot, they still manage to escape!

[RupertBear]

How people spend their own money, & who's butt they kiss is their prerogative.

All I ask for tho, is that when its time to put the live crays in the pot, the water is already fully boiling.
Witnessing the result of them going into cold or tepid water, to be bought up to boil is not a pretty sight.
Especially inside a kitchen, where despite chopping boards & other pots & pans heaped on top of the boil pot, they still manage to escape!

Yep I confess to feeling sorry for crayfish, the thought of boiling them alive is pretty yucky, poor things :(

[tipsy]

SUM sp fast approaching RYM's, only a few dollars in it now :scared:

[bull....]

yep sum has been by far the best performing stock this year in the retirement sector space

[Baa_Baa]

SUM sp fast approaching RYM's, only a few dollars in it now :scared:

And just shrugged off the CEO and Chairman resignations. Good eh

[Beagle]

Coutts silly old wives tale relativity theory is dead for all time as I predicted it would be many times. That said $97m (at the mid point of forecast) underlying profit is just 42.4 cps.
My read on the forecast tea leaves is that fourth quarter sales are not all that crash hot and the forecasted result is a not insignificant reduction on last years $106.2m.
At $11.14 they currently trade on 1114 / 42.4 cps = 26 times forecast earnings. I was thinking I might get some SUM back into my portfolio for 2021 and confess to have been wrestling with this dilemma and have felt ambivalent about it for quite some time. Their fairly modest forecast was very timely and resolved my dilemma very well.

[winner69]

SUM / ARV last to report full year result with Covid implication included so hard to be judgemental at this stage, esp now wage subsidy not included in earnings.

Mind you I thought H2 might be a bit stronger than forecast but being about the same as last year is a good effort ...probably covid disruptions / costs etc are still being incurred.

And Couta’s theorem is about reversion to the mean (not a rule for every day) ....it probably will happen one day and the theorem will still hold

[Bjauck]

That is for the individual to decide where there 'moral outrage' lies.

True. If the subsidy was lawfully obtained, then any repayment is up to the companies involved.

While companies repay wages subsidies lawfully taken, covid measures, together with policy and tax settings, have probably ensured that NZ house price growth outstrips wages growth for at least the next five years. Even Labour PM Ardern says that Kiwis expect house prices to continue to rise. A gift to home owners and property investors. It is little wonder such premium in NZ is attached to real estate ownership compared to owning business and shares.

Government forecasts five years of house price growth, outstripping wage growthhttps://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300185811/government-forecasts-five-years-of-house-price-growth-outstripping-wage-growth

[Balance]

How people spend their own money, & who's butt they kiss is their prerogative.

All I ask for tho, is that when its time to put the live crays in the pot, the water is already fully boiling.
Witnessing the result of them going into cold or tepid water, to be bought up to boil is not a pretty sight.
Especially inside a kitchen, where despite chopping boards & other pots & pans heaped on top of the boil pot, they still manage to escape!

Boiling live crayfishes - savages and peasants do that.

Do it the right way - chill down in the fridge/freezer and dispatch, Japanese & Asian style.

[Balance]

That is for the individual to decide where there 'moral outrage' lies.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/barry-soper-trevor-mallard-raises-more-questions-than-he-answers/FNAUN3FVPGATPS4JDX6Q6SDCNQ/

This is the state of moral outrage in NZ today - an innocent man's life is destroyed by a false and malicious accusation but Cynical Cindy stands by the bastard who did it, Trevor Mallard.

"Next year he'll (Mallard) survive a vote with Labour's majority and with mother of kindness, well-being and transparency Jacinda Ardern saying he simply made a mistake and he's the man for the job. The man he maligned is out of a job and if now suffering ill health."

[Bjauck]

Boiling live crayfishes - savages and peasants do that.

Do it the right way - chill down in the fridge/freezer and dispatch, Japanese & Asian style. Better still, become a vegetarian and leave them to live their life free from humans that are hell bent on destroying the planet. Not that it is anything directly to do with Summerset.

[Balance]

Better still, become a vegetarian and leave them to live their life free from humans that are hell bent on destroying the planet. Not that it is anything to do with Summerset.

If you are that way inclined, go vegan and live in a tree house?

[Getty]

Boiling live crayfishes - savages and peasants do that.

Do it the right way - chill down in the fridge/freezer and dispatch, Japanese & Asian style.

I'll pass that on to the S & P's.
Its about time they had some Balance in their lives.

[Bjauck]

If you are that way inclined, go vegan and live in a tree house? Slaughtered animal eaters only allowed at Summerset villages? I am aspiring to live at a nice Summerset village should I reach the eligible age and able to afford it.

[BlackPeter]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/barry-soper-trevor-mallard-raises-more-questions-than-he-answers/FNAUN3FVPGATPS4JDX6Q6SDCNQ/

This is the state of moral outrage in NZ today - an innocent man's life is destroyed by a false and malicious accusation but Cynical Cindy stands by the bastard who did it, Trevor Mallard.

"Next year he'll (Mallard) survive a vote with Labour's majority and with mother of kindness, well-being and transparency Jacinda Ardern saying he simply made a mistake and he's the man for the job. The man he maligned is out of a job and if now suffering ill health."

Balance, it is not often these days that we agree in our views on NZ politics, but I do agree with your view on Trevor Mallard's despicable behavior and I am as well disappointed about the weak response from our PM.

Having said that - THIS IS THE SUMMERSET thread! Any chance you confine your (in this case justified) political outrage to the threads where it belongs?

[Beagle]

Yes back to Summerset. Forbar out with a note today putting a target price of $12.80 on it, 12% upside from the price when I last looked at $11.45. Contains some, (in my opinion) pretty "hopeful" looking eps growth rates for FY21 and FY22. That said Julian Cook has left them with a great legacy of a vast landbank and the new incoming CEO Scott seems well regarded by institutional shareholders. I think those holding SUM for the long term will do very well but at a forecast underlying PE of 26 at present its too rich for my tastes.
I note Forbar recently issued a research note of OCA with a price target of $1.65, ~ 19% higher than the current share price.
(With thanks to my friend who sent me a copy of both research notes)

[Joshuatree]

Craigs also have new research out T/P $12.93 Overweight "set for summer"

[dabsman]

SUM - the gift that keeps on giving. Close to $11.50 :)

[Ggcc]

SUM - the gift that keeps on giving. Close to $11.50 :)
Just a little bit more and it will match Ryman dollar for dollar in SP

[bull....]

summerset rocking up another 20c those subsidy paybacks really get the shares going. ill be buying more crayfish than balance hlg no payback of the subsidy performance

[Brain]

If you are that way inclined, go vegan and live in a tree house?

The other alternative is to let your food die of old age before you eat it.

[Beagle]

summerset rocking up another 20c those subsidy paybacks really get the shares going. ill be buying more crayfish than balance hlg no payback of the subsidy performance

Maybe the market is happy to see Rob Campbell retire. I've been saying for SUM time he has looked past his prime.

[bull....]

yep sum has been by far the best performing stock this year in the retirement sector space

new highs again , truly the best of the breed at the moment

[Ggcc]

new highs again , truly the best of the breed at the moment
At this rate it will be at the same value by Christmas next year in Share Price

[Beagle]

Mid point of guidance is $97m which on 228.785m shares = 42.4 cps underlying earnings. $12.04 / 42.4 cps = a PE on current year earnings of 28.4.
To be fair their financial year is almost over, (31/12/20) so investors will be thinking about their earnings growth prospects for next year and beyound and I think its now fair to say their major land bank is an advantage going forward. Whether one has upmost confidence they can execute effectively with consenting and development at decent margins is another thing to consider. My read on the tea leaves of the FY20 forecast result is Q4 sales have not been as strong as one might imagine they might have been reading the press reports about how the market has been going gangbusters. I suspect they still have a pretty serious issue with some slow moving stock they're still struggling to sell.

[winner69]

Mid point of guidance is $97m which on 228.785m shares = 42.4 cps underlying earnings. $12.04 / 42.4 cps = a PE on current year earnings of 28.4.

F20 includes covid stuff ....markets are forward looking so maybe a PE up is really only in low 20’s

Seems about right ...class always prevails


note - beagle added to his post after replied

[winner69]

new highs again , truly the best of the breed at the moment

Sector overall has under performed NZX50 over last 52 weeks - OCA average and ARV and RYM underperforming a lot - but SUM best of breed by a long way - up 43% last 52 weeks v NZX50 up 12%

From NZX today last 52 weeks movement

NZX50 up 12%
ARV down 5%
OCA up 15%
RYM down 6%
SUM up 43%

[dreamcatcher]

We are all aware property is a ladder so needs someone to enter the first step and things may have reached their limits even with low interest rates. That bottom rung on the ladder for some already starting to look daunting.

"A new survey of mortgage advisers shows "solid evidence of things cooling off" in the housing market, with the impact of LVR changes and pressure on landlords ramping up."

https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976517986/is-the-housing-market-cooling-off.html

[winner69]

All looking good for another boomer of a year for Summerset

Westpac chief economist Dominick Stephens said house price inflation had a way to run yet and he's picking big growth this year.

"We are forecasting a peak of 16 per cent annual house price inflation in June 2021, and a full-year increase over 2021 of 12.2 per cent," he said.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/what-will-nz-house-prices-do-in-2021-experts-make-their-forecasts/I5NOR7O2KMTJ7OJHJ5X5VD5JAA/

[TideMan]

Westpac chief economist Dominick Stephens said house price inflation had a way to run yet and he's picking big growth this year.


Isn't this the same bloke who reckoned house prices would drop in 2020?
I wouldn't believe a word he says.

[winner69]

Isn't this the same bloke who reckoned house prices would drop in 2020?
I wouldn't believe a word he says.

It's in the papers and so it's true and mum and dad investors will get excited and buy OCA shares .... good eh, irrespective of whether Dominic and his fellow experts are right or wrong

[Lease]

Isn't this the same bloke who reckoned house prices would drop in 2020?
I wouldn't believe a word he says.

2020 is a special year. Actually nobody expected property market, share market went up substantially. But they turned up rising vastly.

So Fed QE has really worked, and 2021 will continue to be a booming year for risk assets.

[TideMan]

2020 is a special year. Actually nobody expected property market, share market went up substantially.

But that's the point, don't you see?
This bloke Dominick doesn't have any better clue than I do about what's going to happen in 2021.
And given that after lockdown in 2020 he predicted property prices would drop by 15%, when actually they rose by 15%, his credibility is zero, or even negative.
In fact, I don't know how he still has a job. If he worked for me as a forecaster, I'd sack him.

[dobby41]

But that's the point, don't you see?
This bloke Dominick doesn't have any better clue than I do about what's going to happen in 2021.
And given that after lockdown in 2020 he predicted property prices would drop by 15%, when actually they rose by 15%, his credibility is zero, or even negative.
In fact, I don't know how he still has a job. If he worked for me as a forecaster, I'd sack him.

Newspapers are driven by headlines but economists usually have more detail in the background on the 'headline' that doesn't get reported.
Economists don't provide predictions - they don't have a crystal ball. I have heard many of them speak and there is always a lot more to it than the headline suggests.

[winner69]

Newspapers are driven by headlines but economists usually have more detail in the background on the 'headline' that doesn't get reported.
Economists don't provide predictions - they don't have a crystal ball. I have heard many of them speak and there is always a lot more to it than the headline suggests.

Yes, economists make forecasts and not predictions

But if ‘predictions’ are about estimating the outcomes for unseen data (as opposed to forecasts based on time series data) one could say that it these strange times with unknown future the likes of Dominic are actually ‘predicting’ things like house prices in the future.

Bank economists are a funny lot - often their forecasts and commentaries are made to support what their masters (the banks) want the politicians, RBNZ etc to hear (a form of persuasion to get outcomes the banks want)

Whatever it will good for OCA if property prices rise by 10% plus

[Greekwatchdog]

Update on sales https://www.nzx.com/announcements/366005

[Ggcc]

Update on sales https://www.nzx.com/announcements/366005
To the races we go. Well done Summerset

[winner69]

To the races we go. Well done Summerset

Really amazing reporrt

Annual unit sales up 20% on pcp - all in 2nd half which were up 39% ...wow

Momentum building

We have passed the inflection point ....seems a popular phrase these days

Chart of sales looking heaps better now

[winner69]

Julian pleased to see that this was the strongest quarter sales result in Summerset’s 23-year history.

and

have a strong pipeline of sales for Q1, 2021

[Baa_Baa]

Julian pleased to see that this was the strongest quarter sales result in Summerset’s 23-year history.

and

have a strong pipeline of sales for Q1, 2021

Judging by the SP appreciation in the past few weeks, this news might not be 'news' to some. Leaky ship?

[artemis]

Judging by the SP appreciation in the past few weeks, this news might not be 'news' to some. Leaky ship?

Not necessarily. How about prospective buyers who are told only x units are not under contract. These prospective buyers are not all applecheeked grannies knitting in the rocking chair. Most of them have a social media presence these days and information circles the world in nanoseconds. One property related Facebook group I belong to has tens of thousands NZ members, for example.

[BlackPeter]

Judging by the SP appreciation in the past few weeks, this news might not be 'news' to some. Leaky ship?

I guess a lot of SUM staff, residents and visitors / observers will know how much current interest there is in the offering. More and busy open days, sales people saying more often - sorry, this apartment is already taken ...

Similar like with assessing the business for a retailer ... if people notice full shops and long checkout queues and packed parking lots in front of the shop ... it is not necessarily leaking insider information which gets investors to buy in :):

Don't think either the interest is limited to SUM ... though they obviously have the benefit of a HUGE land bank.

[Ggcc]

Judging by the SP appreciation in the past few weeks, this news might not be 'news' to some. Leaky ship?
I have spoken with tradies on site for Summerset, Bupa and OCA and they mentioned Sum were the most on to it to deal with in regards to knowing what was happening, especially post Covid. They said they dont want to deal with Ryman.......

[winner69]

Judging by the SP appreciation in the past few weeks, this news might not be 'news' to some. Leaky ship?

SUM has just been rising on the coat tails of OCA, no insider stuff :t_up: :)

[davflaws]

SUM has just been rising the coat tail of OCA, no insider stuff :t_up: :) "is rising the coat tail" the same as "lifting the skirt"?

[artemis]

Herald today (paywalled) - With a 300% share price rise in 10 months, why did brokers overlook this stock?

Yep, Summerset.

[tahert2]

Herald today (paywalled) - With a 300% share price rise in 10 months, why did brokers overlook this stock?

Yep, Summerset.

A biased outlook actually. Conveniently compares the March low vs current price. Stock advisor firms were recommending better companies at the time as most people would be unwilling to buy that low during the time.

I mean most stocks have gone up 2-3 times on the NZX if comparing to the March 2020 lows. Some much much more.

[winner69]

House prices still going up at ever increasing rates .....now nearly 20% higher than a year ago

Good for Summerset et al

https://www.reinz.co.nz/Media/Default/Statistic%20Documents/2020/December/REINZ%20Monthly%20Property%20Report%20-%20December%202020.pdf

[Waltzing]

and perhaps good for the whole sector.

because it was supposedly over stocked but turns out it wasnt?

well that leaves one very low priced share left.

[winner69]

Neat article on Vena Crawley (he’s a Summerset Director). Seems a really good guy.

Love the bit about his altercation with Joan Withers -

I did the interview process for the future director programme at The Warehouse and they said, “Oh, you’re brown, and you’re gay – that’s cool”. I was really honest with [Warehouse Group chair] Joan Withers and said, “I don’t want to be your diversity tick”. I got a few smacks from Joan – she would put me back in my corner, but also I stood my ground.




Business desk says it free so have a read

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/the-life/my-net-worth-vena-crawley-company-director-and-contact-energy-chief-customer-officer

[Mudfish]

I see MarketScreener has SUM evaluated at almost $13 a share by 4 analysis. Any thoughts? Just bought a couple.

[Greekwatchdog]

For Bar had target of $12.80 back in Mid Dec..

[dabsman]

I see MarketScreener has SUM evaluated at almost $13 a share by 4 analysis. Any thoughts? Just bought a couple.

And $13 hit now. Certainly riding the property market. Has a ton of embedded value to recycle and more coming each year. Very interested in how quickly and agressively they roll into Aussie. Can only be good when more Aussie eyes are on this stock

[Ggcc]

Any ideas when SUM share price passes RYM? I’m guessing within the next two years at this rate.

[BlackPeter]

Any ideas when SUM share price passes RYM? I’m guessing within the next two years at this rate.

Impossible ... remember the Couta theorem :)

[Ggcc]

Impossible ... remember the Couta theorem :)
Then Summerset should be worth $7.50 per share, or Ryman should be worth $26 per share............
Something does not compute

[Beagle]

Impossible ... remember the Couta theorem :)

I have consistently said for many years that his theory has no logical investment foundation to it. The 40-60% relativity band has been busted wide open and mark my words, it will never revert back. For what its worth I think there is far better value in OCA and ARV.

[Baa_Baa]

I have consistently said for many years that his theory has no logical investment foundation to it. The 40-60% relativity band has been busted wide open and mark my words, it will never revert back. For what its worth I think there is far better value in OCA and ARV.

I agree with you but am feeling a bit silly having unloaded SUM at $10.50 (very nice upside thank you) which I thought was moon beams, only to see it go to higher moon beams, though I console myself that I now have an OCA position that even a 1 cent move either way makes the portfolio seem like a trampoline!

[winner69]

Couts Theorem is a bit like my theorem that HGH PE will always revert to about 3 less than average of Aussie banks,

One of those long standing insights that have stood the test of time over many years ....but one we hope that one day will be found to be wanted and busted wide open

[BlackPeter]

I have consistently said for many years that his theory has no logical investment foundation to it. The 40-60% relativity band has been busted wide open and mark my words, it will never revert back. For what its worth I think there is far better value in OCA and ARV.

I know. Sometime sarcasm is difficult to convey through a key board :):

[Beagle]

Wonder what Julian Cook is moving on to do next ?

I think with the benefit of hindsight he showed great vision buying up so much land. Might be easier said than done for other sector participants to find good sites at realistic prices now.

[BlackPeter]

Wonder what Julian Cook is moving on to do next ?

I think with the benefit of hindsight he showed great vision buying up so much land. Might be easier said than done for other sector participants to find good sites at realistic prices now.

Mmh yes, I remember it is not that long ago that we did beat him up for his wisdom to accumulate such a huge landbank. Times change ... but then, they can change again, can't they? ;):

[winner69]

OMG ....median house price FELL in January (from December)

https://www.reinz.co.nz/Media/Default/Statistic%20Documents/2021/Residential/January/REINZ%20Monthly%20Property%20Report%20-%20January%202021.pdf

[Beagle]

OMG ....median house price FELL in January (from December)

https://www.reinz.co.nz/Media/Default/Statistic%20Documents/2021/Residential/January/REINZ%20Monthly%20Property%20Report%20-%20January%202021.pdf

Don't panic mate, Bindi has some soothing words for you :)

Bindi Norwell, Chief Executive at REINZ says: “Usually, in
January the residential property market slows down, and
prices ease off a bit as people head to the beach for their
summer holidays. However, the first month of 2021 was
anything but normal, as house prices across the country have
continued to rise with January seeing four regions reach new
record median prices and one region equal its December
record. Furthermore, 27 districts around the country reached
new record high median prices, with 13 of those districts
exceeding last month’s record.

[James108]

I imagine less expensive houses are sold in January as all rich folks have gone to their bach? Whereas us peasants are still here in the ghettos fighting over the $1m slums.

[thegreatestben]

It's just harder than it needs to be for all the steps to sell through the end of December and January. We see the same reduction in our data at work which is housing related :) November 2020 was the biggest month for us December wasn't far behind.

[winner69]

Profit of $238m for year pretty good effort ....up 32% on FY19


Well done Summerset

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SUM/368001/340887.pdf

[MauroNZ]

Profit of $238m for year pretty good effort ....up 32% on FY19

Well done Summerset

And I sold too early in August :S.

[peat]

Profit of $238m for year pretty good effort ....up 32% on FY19


Well done Summerset

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SUM/368001/340887.pdf

driven by an investment property revaluation uplift of NZ$221.1 million on Summerset’s retirement village assets for the year

[winner69]

driven by an investment property revaluation uplift of NZ$221.1 million on Summerset’s retirement village assets for the year

It is a property company

At least running villages and looking after people didn’t seem to cost them that much.

[James108]

Bit disappointed with result, sold some at open. Still a great company and my largest holding but now trading at slightly above fair value in my view.

[Beagle]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SUM/368001/340889.pdf

Julian Cook and Rob Campbell have been instrumental in creating a huge amount of value for shareholders over the years. Well done and a big thank you.
They have positioned SUM to grow strongly in the years ahead, the last statement on page 19 is interesting.

I feel the shares are fully valued at this point but nonetheless a sound long term hold. ( I prefer OCA and ARV and feel they are undervalued compared to SUM and RYM)

[Ggcc]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SUM/368001/340889.pdf

Julian Cook and Rob Campbell have been instrumental in creating a huge amount of value for shareholders over the years. Well done and a big thank you.
They have positioned SUM to grow strongly in the years ahead, the last statement on page 19 is interesting.

I feel the shares are fully valued at this point but nonetheless a sound long term hold. ( I prefer OCA and ARV and feel they are undervalued compared to SUM and RYM)
Good things take time and people will be more interested years after proving themselves. They will go up slowly and then all of a sudden boom, people will catch on.

[value_investor]

My thoughts on the result

- Excellent to see the sale of so many units, this is perhaps a sign of the times to come with the market starting to mature. Its still a ways to go but the trend of demographics with the ageing population will start becoming more and more pronounced. 785 unit sales if you think about it is more than 2 per day, and then you count the working days its a bit staggering.

- The biggest number jumping off the page is the development margin that has fallen heavily. Yes, they did target a 20-25% range but to have it at 20% flat is very interesting. Its a similar story to OCA where the delivery of units in Auckland has fallen hence such a big shift. I suspect the Auckland market, while having the most lucrative possibility of gains also has lessor demand for the units in the upper price brackets.

- Pleasing to see big gains in the fair value of property, I'm sure this is a lot to do with valuations now returning to norm post covid and the hot housing market. I would say of all the property companies, SUM has the most run rate of development in their pipeline. I guess having so much is like a switch they can tap into in terms of building. The move into Victoria is interesting, I wonder what development margins are like there. Would anyone here know?

Valuation: The underlying profit move down does make me a bit nervous. Short to medium term development margin at 20-25% to me indicates we will be here for a while, especially when you're not into the care side and can't tap into the more premium care offerings they have. You're also at the mercy of the market which has been good to SUM for a while but at 20% development margin it leaves you with not so much wiggle room if it goes the other way.

This is a stellar business, and you can't scoff at their ability to build units but at a PE 30 times their underlying profit you are really paying top dollar. I'm not sure if they can grow faster to accommodate this. I may reduce my position before the ex dividend comes up. I'm loaded up pretty heavy at a average price you might have gotten in 2017. I think there is better value elsewhere.

Disc: A holder with quite a substantial position.

[winner69]

Holy moly .....median property prices up 7% in Feb v Jan ....and up 23% from Feb last year

Must be good for Summerset this year

https://www.reinz.co.nz/Media/Default/Statistic%20Documents/2021/Residential/February/REINZ%20Monthly%20Property%20Report%20-%20February%202021.pdf

[winner69]

Cool picture

What can go wrong

[BlackPeter]

Cool picture

What can go wrong

just wondering whether this is one of the situations where a logarithmic scale might be more appropriate?

[dreamcatcher]

Appears 30% of Australians are 1 month behind on their mortgages possible same in NZ ?

[silu]

Appears 30% of Australians are 1 month behind on their mortgages possible same in NZ ?

Did Australia have a mortgage deferral scheme like we have (running until end of this month as far as I know). We had more than 80k households use that. From what I remember last year NZ had about 15k mortgages in arrears with late payments.

[dreamcatcher]

Did Australia have a mortgage deferral scheme like we have (running until end of this month as far as I know). We had more than 80k households use that. From what I remember last year NZ had about 15k mortgages in arrears with late payments.

Never thought of deferral scheme and probably the answer

[Bjauck]

just wondering whether this is one of the situations where a logarithmic scale might be more appropriate?...and to overlay the change in household income?

[winner69]

Great article on Rob Campbells life

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/listed-companies/rob-campbell-the-legacy-of-nzs-corporate-socialist

[Beagle]

Director sells the vast majority of his shares on-market http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SUM/369355/342591.pdf

[winner69]

Director sells the vast majority of his shares on-market http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SUM/369355/342591.pdf

He sold 150,000 last November as well ..... told the NBR he needed funds for an exciting new venture ....and nothing to do with Summerset performance

Maybe the exciting new venture had another funding round

Wife has heaps of bonds eh

[BlackPeter]

Director sells the vast majority of his shares on-market http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SUM/369355/342591.pdf

Maybe he just needs a new deck? Anyway, they do feel a bit top-heavy, don't they?

[artemis]

What do folk think of the move by some retirement village residents to share in capital gains of their unit upon sale, and Consumer NZ saying some licence to occupy terms are unfair. The first could end up the law. A different model would be needed though cannot see any government forcing that retrospectively. An option would be a different model alongside the licence to occupy and people could choose which option they prefer.

Of course that would require suppliers. Who might not be inclined to take a haircut so would bump up ongoing costs to bridge any gap.

Rises in values will be the trigger for the unhappy residents (and their heirs). But we have had long flat periods in the past .... If values slow and residents are paying more ongoing they could be worse off.

End of the day, atm residents have to get independent advice, make their own decisions and freely enter into a contract. And then think it's Ok to change their mind.

[artemis]

What do folk think of the move by some retirement village residents to share in capital gains of their unit upon sale, and Consumer NZ saying some licence to occupy terms are unfair. The first could end up the law. A different model would be needed though cannot see any government forcing that retrospectively. An option would be a different model alongside the licence to occupy and people could choose which option they prefer.

Of course that would require suppliers. Who might not be inclined to take a haircut so would bump up ongoing costs to bridge any gap.

Rises in values will be the trigger for the unhappy residents (and their heirs). But we have had long flat periods in the past .... If values slow and residents are paying more ongoing they could be worse off.

End of the day, atm residents have to get independent advice, make their own decisions and freely enter into a contract. And then think it's Ok to change their mind.

[Greekwatchdog]

Good Numbers https://www.nzx.com/announcements/370466

[winner69]

Good Numbers https://www.nzx.com/announcements/370466

Not good - staggering

Record Q1 sales result for both new sales and resales.

and future looking good

Our waitlist is up 24 percent on a year ago, and 8 percent on the previous quarter, so we’re seeing that demand to live in our villages remaining very strong,”

[winner69]

Sales up 40% on pcp - pretty good effort

Like the historical chart below

ay past point of inflection now (applies here more than hat other company who uses the same phrase)

[winner69]

You'd have to think that with a sales increase like that reported half year profits going to look pretty good.

[dabsman]

I was expecting to see the whole sector lift on those numbers. Nothing much yet

[winner69]

Over last 4 quarters SUM have sold 482 new units - heaps more than the 328 in pcp

They've indicated delivering about 550 new units this year (compared to 356 in 2020)

The way sales are going at the minute and the comments about the wait list it seems that they could sell all they do deliver

[Baa_Baa]

Over last 4 quarters SUM have sold 482 new units - heaps more than the 328 in pcp

They've indicated delivering about 550 new units this year (compared to 356 in 2020)

The way sales are going at the minute and the comments about the wait list it seems that they could sell all they do deliver

Massive turnaround from recently when they were struggling to get the sales. Terrific results and encouraging future results anticipated. So glad this is happening since Scott took over.

Hopefully for shareholders who hold covering the sector, that these results are indicative of sales at other companies.

[Greekwatchdog]

For Bars latest sector views.
Oceania Healthcare OCA 1.32 1.80 13.4 20.0 OUTPERFORM
Arvida ARV 1.70 2.15 13.9 21.4 OUTPERFORM
Ryman Healthcare RYM 15.00 14.10 24.6 44.7 NEUTRAL
Summerset SUM 12.05 13.25 18.5 35.2 NEUTRAL

[winner69]

Suppose SUM prices increasing at this rate

March REINZ report

Median price March up 5.9% from Feb and 24.3% over last 12 months

https://www.reinz.co.nz/Media/Defaul...rch%202021.pdf

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Suppose SUM prices increasing at this rate

March REINZ report

Median price March up 5.9% from Feb and 24.3% over last 12 months

https://www.reinz.co.nz/Media/Defaul...rch%202021.pdf

SUM CEO was on the live Sharesies "Lunch Money" webcast today, interesting that he acknowledged that long term that Australian market is a significantly bigger growth opportunity.

Also was very interesting to hear they have looked at developing build to rent housing developments (for all ages, not just retirees), but would need better developed pre-fabrication housing industry in New Zealand before they start doing that.

I'm not currently a holder, but am tempted to add as a long term holding.

[justakiwi]

I watched it too but not particularly impressed. He is not a very “inspirational” speaker/CEO. He also made a major faux pas in my opinion. He said something like “people are not just buying a house (in a Summerset village) they are buying the extras” - poor wording in my opinion. People need to understand they are not buying the house, merely the right to occupy. You can’t blame people for believing they should get a share of the capital gain, if the CEO uses the wrong terminology.


SUM CEO was on the live Sharesies "Lunch Money" webcast today, interesting that he acknowledged that long term that Australian market is a significantly bigger growth opportunity.

Also was very interesting to hear they have looked at developing build to rent housing developments (for all ages, not just retirees), but would need better developed pre-fabrication housing industry in New Zealand before they start doing that.

I'm not currently a holder, but am tempted to add as a long term holding.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I thought it was amusing in a darkly comic sense about when they refer to residents "leaving" the complex....

[LaserEyeKiwi]

So what is the deal with SUM dividend? Why is it so low? why do they pay out such a low percentage of underlying profit (under a third)?

[winner69]

So what is the deal with SUM dividend? Why is it so low? why do they pay out such a low percentage of underlying profit (under a third)?

Only a notional divie because the market per se says they should pay a divie.

Best they retained all earnings and keep investing

And then the taxman gets his share of any dividends as ni imputation credits

Always seemed silly for this sector to pay divies in first place - my opinion anyway

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Only a notional divie because the market per se says they should pay a divie.

Best they retained all earnings and keep investing

And then the taxman gets his share of any dividends as ni imputation credits

Always seemed silly for this sector to pay divies in first place - my opinion anyway

So your saying they should only be considered a growth stock at the current time? I guess when using the "underlying profit" it has an earnings multiple of 28x which puts it in growth stock valuation territory (While its official P/E based on reported Net income is only 12x).

[winner69]

So your saying they should only be considered a growth stock at the current time? I guess when using the "underlying profit" it has an earnings multiple of 28x which puts it in growth stock valuation territory (While its official P/E based on reported Net income is only 12x).

Not saying whether it should be considered as - growth stock or whatever

Just saying it doesn’t make much sense when a company generally has negative cash flows (investing > operating) you pay dividends that are fully taxed in hands of shareholders ...and increase borrowings at the same time.

Same thoughts re all sector companies

[winner69]

Most trusted brands

[winner69]

Summerset's annual meeting come and gone

Used to be exciting times on Sharetrader at this time of the year but silence this time around

Good that Summerset has finally made the 'too boring to talk about' status

Suppose the ramping / discussion now done with Oceania

[silu]

Summerset's annual meeting come and gone

Used to be exciting times on Sharetrader at this time of the year but silence this time around

Good that Summerset has finally made the 'too boring to talk about' status

Suppose the ramping / discussion now done with Oceania

Isn't it great seeing young ones growing up? I have accumulated more SUM during the last few weeks with proceeds from ATM to make it my biggest NZ holding. I can see bright things still happen especially in Australia.

[dabsman]

Isn't it great seeing young ones growing up? I have accumulated more SUM during the last few weeks with proceeds from ATM to make it my biggest NZ holding. I can see bright things still happen especially in Australia.
Breaking ground in Aussie and highest land banks of operators here. Years of growth ahead secured 😊

[macduffy]

Breaking ground in Aussie and highest land banks of operators here. Years of growth ahead secured ��

Make that "profitable growth", please.

:)

[Bjauck]

Rob Campbell has sold a good chunk of his holding.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SUM/371966/345710.pdf

[silu]

I would be interested in a Technical Analysis of SUM at the moment. MA30/MA100 crossing over and trading along the line usually would indicate a sell signal right?

[BlackPeter]

Rob Campbell has sold a good chunk of his holding.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SUM/371966/345710.pdf

Shares are best bought when cheap and sold when dear.

Rob knows that :) - and who might be better positioned than he to assess whether the current share price is cheap or dear? Summerset website says he has more than 40 years experience as an investor ...
https://www.summerset.co.nz/investor-centre/our-board/

But anyway - he probably just needs a new deck ...

[newtrader]

Rob Campbell has sold a good chunk of his holding.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SUM/371966/345710.pdf

He retired from the board last month. Pretty normal for directors and execs to sell out when they leave the team or the board?

[jg8512]

He retired from the board last month. Pretty normal for directors and execs to sell out when they leave the team or the board?

maybe, but like the rest of us he presumably prefers the best returns he can. and he's selling SUM quite quickly.

[BlackPeter]

He retired from the board last month. Pretty normal for directors and execs to sell out when they leave the team or the board?

Well, Rob is still in office ... Mark only steps up in July. Rob pretty keen to sell his shares ???

Normal would be to sell them (or some of them) after stepping down, not two months in advance ...

[winner69]

Campbell selling - nothing to see here .... no worries

You guys just think too much - a bit like some sport commentators - a certain event happens and they push a button and spout out the same comments every time

[Bjauck]

Well, Rob is still in office ... Mark only steps up in July. Rob pretty keen to sell his shares ???

Normal would be to sell them (or some of them) after stepping down, not two months in advance ...

The SP has had a good run up over the last couple of years.

Interesting item, I had missed, about Rob Campbell from Spinoff at the end of March
https://thespinoff.co.nz/business/13-03-2021/the-rob-campbell-paradox-corporate-juggernaut-with-working-class-heart/

[Snow Leopard]

I would be interested in a Technical Analysis of SUM at the moment. MA30/MA100 crossing over and trading along the line usually would indicate a sell signal right?

Moving Averages are USELESS, but here is a 2 month chart with 8,16,32 & 64 day EMA's for you:
12494

Note the low on the 26-Mar and that it is trending up now, so not a sell.

Note how at the low it bounced off the 2nd stop line, but did not go into the Red zone, so not a sell.

Pick your indicators to taste and you can justify anything.

[Cyclical]

Shares are best bought when cheap and sold when dear.

Rob knows that :) - and who might be better positioned than he to assess whether the current share price is cheap or dear? Summerset website says he has more than 40 years experience as an investor ...
https://www.summerset.co.nz/investor-centre/our-board/

But anyway - he probably just needs a new deck ...

Why does ATM spring to mind when I read that. Still, one company is backed by bricks and mortar, while the other mystical white powder...she'll be right.

[winner69]

Probably get the Q2 sales update this week

Should be good and we might even get an earnings guidance

Hard to assess how many sales - but if it is over 212 that would take MAT (Moving Annual Total) over the 1000 mark

Quite a milestone in light that it was just over 600 sales a year ago

Last 2 quarter's sales were good - if momentum is maintained SUM in for a good year.

Share price onwards and updates but no doubt some will remain with their view that SUM is way overvalued

[BlackPeter]

Probably get the Q2 sales update this week

Should be good and we might even get an earnings guidance

Hard to assess how many sales - but if it is over 212 that would take MAT (Moving Annual Total) over the 1000 mark

Quite a milestone in light that it was just over 600 sales a year ago

Last 2 quarter's sales were good - if momentum is maintained SUM in for a good year.

Share price onwards and updates but no doubt some will remain with their view that SUM is way overvalued

Who said SUM is overvalued? I must have missed that, but I think that they are much closer to a fair price than some other retirement villages. Similar to RYM already some years ago ...

This was at the time when beagle and I said that Ryman is fairly valued and SUM undervalued. Have a look how the prices did develop in comparison. The blue line is SUM and the red line is RYM.

12705

Now I think that SUM is fairly valued (after a huge correction) and OCA undervalued.

Just link the dots :):

[BlackPeter]

Probably get the Q2 sales update this week

Should be good and we might even get an earnings guidance

Hard to assess how many sales - but if it is over 212 that would take MAT (Moving Annual Total) over the 1000 mark

Quite a milestone in light that it was just over 600 sales a year ago

Last 2 quarter's sales were good - if momentum is maintained SUM in for a good year.

Share price onwards and updates but no doubt some will remain with their view that SUM is way overvalued

Who said SUM is overvalued? I must have missed that, but I think that they are much closer to a fair price than some other retirement villages. Similar to RYM already some years ago ...

This was at the time when beagle and I said that Ryman is fairly valued and SUM undervalued. Have a look how the prices did develop in comparison. The blue line is SUM and the red line is RYM.

12705

Now I think that SUM is fairly valued (after a huge correction) and OCA undervalued.

Just link the dots :):

[winner69]

Good news for sector ….should keep SUM profits humming along

Real estate agency Barfoot and Thompson reports big spike in Auckland house prices in June, says new regulations not dampening cost

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2021/07/real-estate-agency-barfoot-and-thompson-reports-big-spike-in-auckland-house-prices-in-june-says-new-regulations-not-dampening-cost.html

[Greekwatchdog]

Good Sales Numbers https://www.nzx.com/announcements/375448

[winner69]

More than good greekwatchdog --- amazing sales numbers

MAT (12 month rolling number 67% higher than a year ago

This is what real inflection points look like

[winner69]

This level of sales could easily generate $75m of realised gains

H120 was just over $20m

Good half year result coming up I reckon

[Beagle]

Excellent result for SUM, congrats to holders. https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/125720856/record-sales-postcovid19-lock-down-for-retirement-village-operator-summerset


Post-Covid we are seeing an increasing volume of people wanting to come into a village,” Scoullar said. The company was building to meet the consistently strong demand for units from the country’s older population seeking the security, safety and companionship of a retirement village.

I think we're in for a very long journey with Covid and all the variants. This is highly likely to drive very strong demand right across this sector for many years to come.

[winner69]

Property prices still on the rise …lady said defying expectations and refusing to cool

HPI for June 0.9% higher than May

This has to be good news for SUM

June report ex NZIER


https://www.reinz.co.nz/Media/Default/Statistic%20Documents/2021/Residential/June/REINZ%20Monthly%20Property%20Report%20-%20June%202021.pdf

[winner69]

Annual increases in property's prices impressive but growth is slowing ….from a gallop to a canter

Latest month 0.9% x 12 = 10.8% annualized. Up 2.4% past 3 months x 4 = 9.6% annualized.

Still strong enough to adjust my expectations upwards of realised gains SUM will make this half year to $80m/$90m

[Snoopy]

Annual increases in property's prices impressive but growth is slowing ….from a gallop to a canter

Latest month 0.9% x 12 = 10.8% annualized. Up 2.4% past 3 months x 4 = 9.6% annualized.

Still strong enough to adjust my expectations upwards of realised gains SUM will make this half year to $80m/$90m


That isn't how you analyse compounding price increases is it Winner?

0.9% per month: POLD x (1.009)^12 = PNEW => Multiplying Factor = 1.11

2.4% per 3 months: POLD x (1.024)^4 = PNEW => Multiplying factor = 1.10

To two decimal places, the growth is the same in each case.

SNOOPY

[winner69]

That isn't how you analyse compounding price increases is it Winner?

0.9% per month: POLD x (1.009)^12 = PNEW => Multiplying Factor = 1.11

2.4% per 3 months: POLD x (1.024)^4 = PNEW => Multiplying factor = 1.10

To two decimal places, the growth is the same in each case.

SNOOPY

Just doing it the American way Snoopy…..takes complicated maths out of equation eh

[winner69]

Ryman report 82% increase in first quarter sales


SUM probably doing just as well, if not better

H1 results should be a boomer …might increase my forecast of realised gains to to $85m

[winner69]

This level of sales could easily generate $75m of realised gains

H120 was just over $20m

Good half year result coming up I reckon

Bugger …only $70m but whose complaining

H1 underlying $75.5m ….real profit npat $264m

Pretty amazing

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SUM/377781/352863.pdf

[Beagle]

Well picked mate, you're a legend. Very strong result.

[winner69]

Well picked mate, you're a legend. Very strong result.

c'mon beagle - very strong - no no - exceptional surely


Considering just over $100m is their best FULL year ever $76m in H1 is exceptional

Quick look -

1) They actually made money out of caring and looking after people (ie non property activities)

2) Property market price increases seem to have flowed through to Summerset

Both are important and why preferred company in sector

[Maverick]

Bugger …only $70m but whose complaining

H1 underlying $75.5m ….real profit npat $264m

Pretty amazing

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SUM/377781/352863.pdf
Well done Winner, You totally nailed it.

[James108]

Very happy with the result, although given the share price is ~$13 I think this is in the order of what the market expected.

[value_investor]

The result is staggering, the building pipeline, the waitlist. All of it is very impressive and probably signals where the retirement village market is headed. I think in a few years time, it will be a talking point about which retirement village offering is best to retire at with all the future cashed up retirees about to hit the market.

In terms of valuation, they've shown that they can deliver units and sell them in the market. I'd give them a forward PE of 25 based on a conservative full year underlying profit of $130m. I think its a fair valuation, not sure how they can make compounded growth above and beyond where they are but I'm happy to be pleasantly surprised.

Happy to keep holding, won't be adding to it at these prices.

[Maverick]

Bugger …only $70m but whose complaining

H1 underlying $75.5m ….real profit npat $264m

Pretty amazing

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SUM/377781/352863.pdf
Shouldn't be any surprises to posters here that I've built good spreadsheets on SUM over the years. Winner almost perfect HY1 forecast of $75m was totally logical based on their sales but until you actually see it in black and white as of this morning it really seems to be “pie in the sky“ stuff. (Very brave of you Winner for putting your neck on the line, full respect:))

Here's some more numbers to contemplate;
-Second half results are ALWAYS much stronger, generally 18-25% stronger in HY2.
-The ratio of underlying profit to sales is consistent over the years so there's no one off surprise or unsustainability about this result.
-Their increased build rate underlines this future growth.
- All this points to a underlying FY result of about $160-170m

Given a PE of say 25 the SP should hit $18.

I haven't owned SUM for many years now as the evidence was they were simply producing too many units ahead of demand. They were troubled for a couple of years with too much empty stock.

However in the meantime property has gone through the roof but more important to my mind is the demand now in play by the clients. The penetration rates ( % of people wanting to move into a village) seems to have taken a big step up. A few years ago it was about 12-13% or so and now has climbed over 15%. That's a ton of new clients to accommodate. All operators are consistently saying how strong demand continues.
The result bodes well for all the players in this industry. ( except RAD, I have no time for that listing)

SUM has been the biggest winner of this demand either by good luck or most probably, supreme foresight.

SUM deserves a huge thumbs up for their consistent outstanding planning and execution.

[winner69]

And they've bought more land - enough for 300 units in Palmerston North and 200 in Melbourne

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SUM/377773/352816.pdf

[Beagle]

Great result but I am a little cautious that lockdown will suck a bit of gas out of the tank in the second half.

[couta1]

Great result but I am a little cautious that lockdown will suck a bit of gas out of the tank in the second half. SUM ain't going to double in price before OCA does going forward.

[dabsman]

This share is making me feel like Warren Buffet. If only the feeling was reality...

Talk about smashing thru all time highs. $15 soon?

[bull....]

summerset rocking up another 20c those subsidy paybacks really get the shares going. ill be buying more crayfish than balance hlg no payback of the subsidy performance

the payback subsidy stocks are way out performing still ..... BGR , WHS and summerset :t_up: crap performers OCA , HLG non subsidy payback stocks

[Beagle]

the payback subsidy stocks are way out performing still ..... BGR , WHS and summerset :t_up: crap performers OCA , HLG non subsidy payback stocks

Just brought up a chart of Turners TRA over the last year who kept the subsidy and over that timeframe has outperformed all the stocks you mentioned that repaid it.

Maybe repayment has no relevance at all to the share price and its only macro economic and company specific factors affecting the share prices ?

[Beagle]

This share is making me feel like Warren Buffet. If only the feeling was reality...

Talk about smashing thru all time highs. $15 soon?

$15.00shareholders are all winners !

[winner69]

$15.00shareholders are all winners !

$15 is huge compared to $3.36 sometime in Feb/Mar last year

[Beagle]

Yes it is...could of, would have, should have...oh for the benefit of perfect hindsight.

[winner69]

NZ Herald -

Greg Smith, head of research with Fat Prophets, said it was a cracking result. "Summerset is flush with cash and is expanding in New Zealand and Australia

[Beagle]

NZ Herald -

Greg Smith, head of research with Fat Prophets, said it was a cracking result. "Summerset is flush with cash and is expanding in New Zealand and Australia

Cracking = exceptional ;)

[Waltzing]

The question is can OCA pull something out of the bag and not in 5 years time... waiting on OCA...time goes by slowly...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EDwb9jOVRtU

[Bjauck]

$15 is huge compared to $3.36 sometime in Feb/Mar last year
Time in the market and timing the market?

[MauroNZ]

$15 is huge compared to $3.36 sometime in Feb/Mar last year

And I sold it in July last year :S.

[Beagle]

The question is can OCA pull something out of the bag and not in 5 years time... waiting on OCA...time goes by slowly...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EDwb9jOVRtU

Cool video mate...wonder if she got that raunchy outfit at Glassons ;)

Share price has sure been pretty sexy lately, enjoy https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dsh0TfIKhoE

OCA will hit $2 one day, late 2022 / early 2023, I reckon.

[Waltzing]

"wonder if she got that raunchy outfit at Glassons"

well MR B ill go right over to glasson at the base level 2 and chat to a stunning sales person i know who works there and ask how it all going..

Better keep those OCA shares then for about a decade.

By then they could be worth a LOT MORE..$15.00?

Prehaps pay for the view on the baltic...

Baltic Dry ticked up to recently , world busy shipping stuff... Perhaps a lot of clothes coming out of the sub continent amongst it. The Europeans need clothes also and those H&M stores in sweden will need their supplies.

Mr B might want to check air cargo charges in and out of China . The strict virus control measures is taking a toll on the number of cargo handlers.

Supply chain costs look set to take another few legs up.

[value_investor]

Bought these in the $5 in late 2017 and continue to hold, only thing I don't have is enough SUM shares!

The runway for growth is there, only thing I could see happening is the price maybe getting carried away in the short term. The long term for this one from a earnings perspective is great.

[Jim]

Bought these in the $5 in late 2017 and continue to hold, only thing I don't have is enough SUM shares!

The runway for growth is there, only thing I could see happening is the price maybe getting carried away in the short term. The long term for this one from a earnings perspective is great.

Paid $1.60 in 2012 after the former CEO Ms Barlow explained the prospects of the company in one of the NZSA Wellington meetings. Should have bought heaps

[Bjauck]

What was the old supposed Share price ratio? Rym:Sum, 2:1? RYM currently $15.39; SUM $15.51. Yikes.

[BlackPeter]

What was the old supposed Share price ratio? Rym:Sum, 2:1? RYM currently $15.39; SUM $15.51. Yikes.

Well, yes - I think the Couta theorem used to be something like 1 RYM = 2 SUM = 10 OCA.

Now we see that RYM to SUM are more like 1:1, do I assume that OCA will be next to catch up :):

[couta1]

Well, yes - I think the Couta theorem used to be something like 1 RYM = 2 SUM = 10 OCA.

Now we see that RYM to SUM are more like 1:1, do I assume that OCA will be next to catch up :): Yes that's right and it stood correct for 7 yrs until recently and yes looks like the OCA side of the ratio is about to come into balance.:cool:

[winner69]

Sales update Q3 coming soon

Will give us an idea how sector sales are going and lockdown impacts

[Greekwatchdog]

I thought ARV's update was good yesterday. Would expect the same for the remainder of the sector as well.

[Beagle]

I thought ARV's update was good yesterday. Would expect the same for the remainder of the sector as well.

Agree and add that to the success that SUM themselves recently reported and its not hard to join the dots for the rest of the sector.

[Ggcc]

Just been told by a tradie they can’t get onsite unless they are fully vaccinated. There maybe a time limit on it, he is angry they are forcing him to take it.

[Beagle]

Just been told by a tradie they can’t get onsite unless they are fully vaccinated. There maybe a time limit on it, he is angry they are forcing him to take it.

That tradie better (wo)man up and get it done or pretty shortly there will be 1001 things that (s)he is excluded from doing. No sympathy from me and good on Summerset for stepping up to enforce the safety of their residents.

[Ggcc]

That tradie better (wo)man up and get it done or pretty shortly there will be 1001 things that (s)he is excluded from doing. No sympathy from me and good on Summerset for stepping up to enforce the safety of their residents.
I’ve been telling him for a while to get it done, but he just doesn’t want to be told to take it. It’s his call from here, but I feel he may quit if pushed. He has been offered work elsewhere already. I think he is silly just not to get it

[Waltzing]

Wonder at just how many there might be out there across society.

News Article published the results; only 1/4 of those phoned in an over 65 contacted group booked a jab on the spot.

You have to start to think there is a bigger problem that you might imagine.

[dobby41]

Just been told by a tradie they can’t get onsite unless they are fully vaccinated. There maybe a time limit on it, he is angry they are forcing him to take it.

Tough s*** - their place, their rules.
More tradies available who are willing and able to work there I'd say.

[Bjauck]

I went to a Service station office (in SE Auckland) to pay for some petrol yesterday and passed very close to two tradies (I presume, they returned to a Ute with tradie equipment) coming out unmasked and animatedly chatting to each other. I asked the masked attendant if that was allowed. He only noticed they were unmasked when I pointed them out. He said they serve everyone masked or not. It is Little wonder the cases continue and our lock down has dragged on.

[couta1]

Tough s*** - their place, their rules.
More tradies available who are willing and able to work there I'd say. Trades are in short supply mind you, the 2 remaining small rest homes i do work in don't worry about me not being vaccinated, I follow all the other protocols like temp taking/mask wearing and seeing residents in their own rooms and of course they have all been vaccinated, they also ask if you have been to Auckland over the last while, im classified as low risk to them so its all good.

[RTM]

Trades are in short supply mind you, the 2 remaining small rest homes i do work in don't worry about me not being vaccinated, I follow all the other protocols like temp taking/mask wearing and seeing residents in their own rooms and of course they have all been vaccinated, they also ask if you have been to Auckland over the last while, im classified as low risk to them so its all good.

How arrogant.
This what I mean Justakiwi...just a matter of time.

[Greekwatchdog]

I would have thought the Govt and MoH are the arrogant ones after all their failures lead to this outbreak. And I still haven't heard the PM or Ashley apologize for their failures. I don't see Couta response as Arrogant and there are many I work with who wont take the vaccine. If all residents in the facility having been offered there shots and not taken it is it our fault? There are choices as thats our democratic right.

[couta1]

I would have thought the Govt and MoH are the arrogant ones after all their failures lead to this outbreak. And I still haven't heard the PM or Ashley apologize for their failures. I don't see Couta response as Arrogant and there are many I work with who want take the vaccine. If all residents in the facility having been offered there shots and not taken it is it our fault? There are choices as thats our democratic right. Exactly, allowing red zone flights which started this latest lockdown scenario after saying they wouldn't let people back in if they chose to go overseas then doing an about turn.

[couta1]

How arrogant.
This what I mean Justakiwi...just a matter of time. Simply stating facts is not arrogant, if any places i work in don't wont me because of my vaccination status then that's their right, so far I haven't found that to be the case.

[dobby41]

Exactly, allowing red zone flights which started this latest lockdown scenario after saying they wouldn't let people back in if they chose to go overseas then doing an about turn.

They still went into quarantine, didn't they?
It was going to happen no matter the status of the flight.

[dobby41]

Simply stating facts is not arrogant, if any places i work in don't wont me because of my vaccination status then that's their right, so far I haven't found that to be the case.

So you agree that it is their right - so vaccine passport won't be a problem.

[couta1]

So you agree that it is their right - so vaccine passport won't be a problem. It would be the extent of the reach of the vaccine passport that could present the problem, well actually many problems.Thread police will be along soon so better leave it there. Lol

[Sideshow Bob]

3Q21 Sales Metrics - Sales of Occupation Rights - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/380673)

"The number of sales to date equate to 95% of full year sales in 2020."

[winner69]

SUM sales trend still strong ....especially after passing the inflection point

Bit of a dip in resales but this comes after recent really stellar quarters and still ahead of trend ...... and maybe not too many died last summer

Underlying earnings could be $150m plus on these numbers

[Sideshow Bob]

4Q21 Metrics - Sales of Occupation Rights - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/385727)

10 January 2022
4Q21 METRICS – SALES OF OCCUPATION RIGHTS
Summerset Group is pleased to report 234 sales for the quarter ending 31 December 2021, comprising 121 new sales and 113 resales.
Summerset CEO Scott Scoullar said total sales in 2021 reached 978 up 25% on FY20.
“That’s a new annual sales record for Summerset and comes despite ongoing COVID-19 interruptions. We are seeing good growth in waitlists demonstrating that demand for our offer of retirement living remains robust,” Mr Scoullar said.
Mr Scoullar said Q4 sales were strong, despite the Auckland and Waikato regions being in lockdown for much of the quarter.
“We have had good diversification of sales across the country with new units now being sold at 12 of our villages across New Zealand, and additional villages to start selling in 2022,” Mr Scoullar said.

Uncontracted new stock remains low across the country, particularly for villas.
Approximately 63% of uncontracted new sales stock is made up of the final independent living apartments at Ellerslie in Auckland and serviced apartments around the country.
Serviced apartments are needs based and typically take longer to sell than villas and independent living apartments. Ellerslie’s last apartments – housed in the Heritage building – have been selling well.
Mr Scoullar said the first quarter of 2022 was looking strong with 58% of new deliveries presold.
In 2022, Summerset will start construction at four new sites in Milldale (Auckland), Blenheim (Marlborough), Cambridge (Waikato), and Waikanae (Kapiti Coast), as well as continuing construction at another 13 sites around New Zealand and the building of its first Australian units underway at Cranbourne North (Melbourne).
ENDS

[winner69]

So 978 sales for year pretty good ..... pity it wasn't 1,000 eh

Record year - last 3 years trend looking good - 652 in 2019 and then 785 and 978 this year

Should lead to a record profit - look forward to that

[winner69]

Should see Underlying Profit of $135m/$140m for FY21 -- F20 was $98m

Pretty solid performance in a difficult year I reckon :t_up:

[BlackPeter]

So 978 sales for year pretty good ..... pity it wasn't 1,000 eh

Record year - last 3 years trend looking good - 652 in 2019 and then 785 and 978 this year

Should lead to a record profit - look forward to that

MMH - they say one data point does not make a trend ... but now its already the second quarter dropping.

Just an observation ... does not need to mean anything :):

13385

[winner69]

MMH - they say one data point does not make a trend ... but now its already the second quarter dropping.

Just an observation ... does not need to mean anything :):

13385

As probably know Pete things can't grow at an annual rate of 70% forever

[BlackPeter]

As probably know Pete things can't grow at an annual rate for 70% for ever

Not sure I realised that this is a law and that 4 quarters are already "forever"?

Anyway ... good company (and I mean that ...), clearly blazing the trail for OCA :p ;

[winner69]

Not sure I realised that this is a law and that 4 quarters are already "forever"?

Anyway ... good company (and I mean that ...), clearly blazing the trail for OCA :p ;

Declining sales numbers must be an industry thing

OCA sales numbers last 2 reporting periods are down as well

However OCA decline is more than SUM's ... hmm

[BlackPeter]

Declining sales numbers must be an industry thing

OCA sales numbers last 2 reporting periods are down as well

However OCA decline is more than SUM's ... hmm

My saying ... more headroom to recover :):

[winner69]

From MOH today

Summerset by the Park Rest Home Flat Bush

An Auckland aged residential care worker associated with the family from Nelson, has tested positive for COVID-19. The worker is fully vaccinated and Whole Genome Sequencing is being carried out however we are treating this as a contact of a known Omicron case.

The resthome is now closed to visitors and testing is being carried out on residents and staff.

Anyone who has visited the rest home since Friday 21 January and has symptoms of COVID-19 is asked to isolate and get a test as soon as possible.

[Waltzing]

Bit like stop and go signs ... open and closed signs.... big blinking sign on every web site..

Dont forget to check before you leave home unless your biking, walking the dog canoeing ect.

Same game plan then... games plans usually get stale and then you need a new plan and a new team.

Stale game plan... retirement villages in the firing line then.

[Ggcc]

From MOH today

Summerset by the Park Rest Home Flat Bush

An Auckland aged residential care worker associated with the family from Nelson, has tested positive for COVID-19. The worker is fully vaccinated and Whole Genome Sequencing is being carried out however we are treating this as a contact of a known Omicron case.

The resthome is now closed to visitors and testing is being carried out on residents and staff.

Anyone who has visited the rest home since Friday 21 January and has symptoms of COVID-19 is asked to isolate and get a test as soon as possible.
It will hit all care villages. Just a matter of when.

[Baa_Baa]

It will hit all care villages. Just a matter of when.

That's not the experience in Canada or Australia (https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2022/01/covid-19-outbreaks-in-australian-residential-aged-care-facilities-21-january-2022_0.pdf), but it's pretty bad regardless judging by the % of deaths overall and the % of rest homes that have or had outbreaks.

"

As at 12 January 2022, Canada had experienced 31,595 deaths. This includes 15,953 deaths at residential in care homes (or 51 per cent).
56 per cent of all aged care homes in Canada have had reported cases of COVID-19 in residents or staff (compared to 40 per cent in Australia)."

[Waltzing]

well those figures tell us from a human effort perspective the work that the retirement teams are going to have to put in and probably already are heroic maybe.

[artemis]

A post yesterday elsewhere* that Summerset agreed to delayed settlement for a village unit to allow her to sell her own home first. Conditions said to be 10% deposit and a lawyer's undertaking. She can move in right away and the poster (daughter) said that gives time to prepare the home for sale and all that it entails with a lifetime of possessions to deal with.

Is this a common practice? Sounds like it could be a useful marketing point of difference.

* Posted on the big NZ property investor's Facebook group. Private group but with nearly 60,000 members not so private.

[alokdhir]

SUM maybe the Best Buy at the moment for long term hold ...its almost 38% below average analysts target price which incorporates all the rates and property downturn etc fears and realities .

[Greekwatchdog]

For Bars latest.

OUTPERFORM


Summerset (SUM) has delivered the strongest organic earnings, asset, and cash flow growth within the aged care sector over the last five years. We consider it the "best in class" aged care operator. SUM has, in our view, the strongest and lowest risk pathway to growth over the next three to five years driven by a combination of its; (1) sector leading landbank, (2) youngest independent living portfolio in the sector, implying "automatic" earnings growth as villages mature, and (3) highest level of embedded value in relation to current earnings. Over the past twelve months, SUM's share price is down -12% despite delivering ~+25% earnings growth. In light of its meaningful multiple de-rating we now believe SUM offers an attractive risk/reward proposition. Upgrade to OUTPERFORM.


link
NZX Code SUM
Share price NZ$11.45
Target price NZ$13.50 (from 13.70)
Risk rating Medium
Issued shares 225.5m
Market cap NZ$2,582m
Avg daily turnover 198.0k (NZ$2,622k)
link
Financials: Dec/ 20A 21E 22E 23E
NPAT* (NZ$m) 98.3 134.4 139.7 178.9
EPS* (NZc) 43.8 59.6 62.0 79.3
EPS growth* (%) -8.4 35.9 4.0 28.1
DPS (NZc) 13.0 19.0 23.0 27.0
Imputation (%) 100 100 100 100
*Based on normalised profits
link
Valuation (x) 20A 21E 22E 23E
PE 26.1 19.2 18.5 14.4
EV/EBIT 28.8 22.1 21.4 16.8
EV/EBITDA 26.8 20.7 19.8 15.7
Price / NTA 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.3
Cash div yld (%) 1.1 1.7 2.0 2.4
Gross div yld (%) 1.6 2.3 2.8 3.3
What's changed?
Target price: Decreased to NZ$13.50 (from NZ$13.70)
Rating: Upgrade to OUTPERFORM
Best in class growth, past and future
SUM has delivered a ~25% organic annuity EBITDA CAGR over the last five years, which includes two years significantly impacted by COVID-19. This is >2x the average for the other three listed aged care operators. We expect CY22 to be yet another year of disruption but think the fundamentals for strong underlying growth remains better for SUM relative to any of the other aged care operators. This is based on three key drivers, (1) SUM has a young portfolio, with only ~40% of villages mature which should drive high visibility annuity earnings growth, (2) SUM has, by some margin, the largest land bank in the sector in relation to current portfolios,, and (3) SUM's broadacre development strategy improves the cash recovery profile, provides more flexibility and allows it to bring product to market quicker.


Attractive entry point into long term winner
SUM is still trading at a discount to its largest listed peer, Ryman Healthcare (RYM). A discount that we view as unwarranted in light of the number of factors listed above. On an absolute basis, SUM is also trading at or near its lowest PE and EV/Annuity EBITDA multiple since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, this is despite delivering strong earnings growth, stable gearing and stable cash recovery in what has been a challenging backdrop for the aged care operators. Last month, we downgraded our earnings estimates across the sector (in part due to the onset of the Omicron variant) reflecting a combination of (1) expected higher labour costs, (2) lower unit sales and (3) higher level of concern in relation to house price appreciation. Our estimates remain unchanged but we believe that the market is now overcompensating for these headwinds across both SUM and the smaller cap operators in the aged care sector. We upgrade SUM to OUTPERFORM reflecting what we view as an attractive risk/reward proposition for a best in class operator with a meaningful growth runway ahead of it.

[winner69]

Thanks grekwatchdog for that

i've always believed SUM to be as Forbar says 'best in class'

Maybe more on this forum will take a greater interest in SUM .... still quite a few unbelievers / detractors ....maybe distracted by other hyped players

[alokdhir]

Thanks grekwatchdog for that

i've always believed SUM to be as Forbar says 'best in class'

Maybe more on this forum will take a greater interest in SUM .... still quite a few unbelievers / detractors ....maybe distracted by other hyped players

U didn't thank me for that advise before Forbar report :p ....Agree its the best in the class and good long term hold for next few years at least

[Beagle]

Agree its a great company and have acknowledged that many times. It also helps a lot that you don't need a post graduate masters degree in forensic accounting to understand their financial statements, (unlike another company in this sector).

That said its in a confirmed downturn and TA suggests stay away until that changes. I believe its highly likely that 2022 is going to be an absolute shocker in terms of house price declines so its going to be very hard for SUM's share price to make progress against that strong outgoing tide.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/housing-affordability-at-lowest-ever-corelogic-report/XRCBK5IFM5CWVPTL2GM27UCRRY/

[Cyclical]

Agree its a great company and have acknowledged that many times. It also helps a lot that you don't need a post graduate masters degree in forensic accounting to understand their financial statements, (unlike another company in this sector).

That said its in a confirmed downturn and TA suggests stay away until that changes. I believe its highly likely that 2022 is going to be an absolute shocker in terms of house price declines so its going to be very hard for SUM's share price to make progress against that strong outgoing tide.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/housing-affordability-at-lowest-ever-corelogic-report/XRCBK5IFM5CWVPTL2GM27UCRRY/


I don't know, Beagle, we both thought the sky was falling in March/April 2020, and it didn't materialise. In addition, house prices off the back of the GFC, was it somewhere between a 7 - 10% decline? Granted that was followed be a number of years of stagnation I think. I'd be expecting something similar this time round. Or even if it was a 15% decline (leveraged investors have disincentives they haven't faced previously, so might hurt more), have the last 12 to 18months of increases been fully baked into SUM's unit prices?

Disc. Diverted some of the HLG liberated funds into SUM this morning - just dipping a toe in at this stage

[Beagle]

I don't know, Beagle, we both thought the sky was falling in March/April 2020, and it didn't materialise. In addition, house prices off the back of the GFC, was it somewhere between a 7 - 10% decline? Granted that was followed be a number of years of stagnation I think. I'd be expecting something similar this time round. Or even if it was a 15% decline (leveraged investors have disincentives they haven't faced previously, so might hurt more), have the last 12 to 18months of increases been fully baked into SUM's unit prices?

Disc. Diverted some of the HLG liberated funds into SUM this morning - just dipping a toe in at this stage

Time will tell mate but certainly in terms of the decline this time round the Auckland market made made huge strides backwards in January, down 6% in just 1 month :eek2: and volumes sold halved too ! That's not a decline, that's starting to fall off a cliff.

Retirement companies pay pathetic unimputed dividends...I am getting fatter and lazier in my semi retirement and tired of bean counting so my focus is increasingly on what makes my life more comfortable and easier in terms of fully imputed income. That said, I might get some when a new uptrend commences.

[alokdhir]

New CCFA Credit restrictions will most likely get diluted which caused major disruptions to mortgage lending causing spike down in transactions and prices ...so I wont expect more then 5-7 % actual reduction this year then 2-3 years of sideways consolidation .

Its always have been like this after huge run up in all previous cycles ...so maximum variation can be 1-3% max and that too if conditions really deteriorate badly

[Blue Skies]

Resident in SUM Manukau Care Centre has Omicron.
Working hard to establish contact with staff & other residents.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-case-confirmed-at-auckland-rest-home-doors-closed-to-visitors/LVKFIXCT3QYMJNXVXUQSEJCF2U/

[Ggcc]

Resident in SUM Manukau Care Centre has Omicron.
Working hard to establish contact with staff & other residents.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-case-confirmed-at-auckland-rest-home-doors-closed-to-visitors/LVKFIXCT3QYMJNXVXUQSEJCF2U/
I’m sure there will be omicron everywhere eventually. Right now they only want to slow it down.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/checkpoint/audio/2018831132/dr-bryan-betty-suggests-change-of-mindset-with-omicron

[Waltzing]

if its in every rest home the price might just pop down a bit along with the 13 percent slow down in house prices... until perhaps a change of government and interest is reinstated as a cost of capital... game on... I think MR B would be right behind that tax loop hole being closed down..

is anyone going to bother with trace and track? whats the point? The country might be on the cusp of rebellion.

[Old mate]

The point is to slow down the spread. There's no rebellion just a shift to personal responsibility and getting used to the fact that everyone is going to get covid:)

[Waltzing]

tracking is now pointless...

be interesting to see where these SP handles end up.

[Old mate]

Yeah could be a bit more downside to come.

[Hoop]

I treat Broker reports as an indicator..Being a TAer (Chartist) I wait for confirmation following an indicator change...
All very nice for Forbar to be exuberant raptures but most advisors would warn the general public of the high risk when buying a Bear stock.

Yes...in hindsight SUM was trending down before the sudden price leap with the rather stella August 2021 Half Year Report..It took the market by surprise (see Chart) and it seemed the market had negative sentiment before that result. With hindsight the SUM price was undervalued..

OK...FY report due 24th February and we know from history (see chart) that SUM is no leaky boat...so with sentiment being once again negative will SUM price leap up again as it did in August? Answer Yes no maybe take your pick.(do you feel lucky). It seems being a medium term Charist didn't help much with the short term movements last August when the Market which the data for TA was derived from had that surprise.

However we can use a simple look to compare risk from the pre-reporting period August 2021 and now with the trading behavioural changes using the Chart below.
1... SUM is now a BEAR stock..instead of trending up with short corrections (price going down) it is now trending down with sofar one correction (price going up)
2...Although I'm not a great fan of Elliot Waves I have made the chart roughly marking some of the patterns and it seems the Bear wave patterns have a little way to go yet..Maybe Peat and others who are more expert in Ellicott Waves can add their expertise here.
3...Bollinger bands (BB) are loose (wide) indicating a less chance of breaking suddenly up or down forcing the bands it alter direction..Tight BB usually indicate a trend change.
4...Sentiment is the short term driver...Some of the reports I have read have seen stella last half profits with forecast of not so good next half..Will SUM be another one?
5...Eye-balling the chart SUM looks worse now than pre-report last August. (Left side of vertical blue line v right side of vertical blue line)

Disc: No SUM stocks... Have some equity stocks but most of my Capital is elsewhere...My intentions: playing the waiting game.

13534

[Waltzing]

"Bear stock."

well Buffet was a big follower of food and all kinds of drinks.

Great doco's of Food manufactures in the US recently... some from home kitchen table on to crack nation wide distribution...

You never know where the next big food craze might come from.

Investors dream if you can get in early...

with houses prices coming off highs there might be a lack of investor sentiment before it get shrugged off and good times come again..

long way to go in the story of retirement investing for sure.

5 year chart look pretty bearish down to support at 9-10 as MR B has stated.

[alokdhir]

Results tomorrow ....W69 ? What say u ? Your take before we know actuals ....U r good with SUM data

[winner69]

Results tomorrow ....W69 ? What say u ? Your take before we know actuals ....U r good with SUM data

Underlying $130m plus or minus a few

Whatever the market won’t like it and share price will fall

[alokdhir]

Underlying $130m plus or minus a few

Whatever the market won’t like it and share price will fall

Maybe market looking to rebound RV stocks ...see RYM and ARV....OCA is special needs child ...

I think bounce is in the offing ...maybe till 12.50 or so

[Maverick]

Underlying $130m plus or minus a few

Whatever the market won’t like it and share price will fall

Funny you posted that just then Winner. I've been working on SUM today just for the exercise and a personal little "systems check".

I come up with a whopping $141m, I have not dug into covid cost adjustments though and just presumed they will be sort of steady.

I love their reports, they've really got the information delivery nailed down.

One surprise though was how their expenses have also been heavily climbing over many years, especially since they aren't "care " heavy.

[Greekwatchdog]

Hard not to like this result.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/387845

[forest]

Funny you posted that just then Winner. I've been working on SUM today just for the exercise and a personal little "systems check".

I come up with a whopping $141m, I have not dug into covid cost adjustments though and just presumed they will be sort of steady.

I love their reports, they've really got the information delivery nailed down.

One surprise though was how their expenses have also been heavily climbing over many years, especially since they aren't "care " heavy.

WOW, that was accurate.

[winner69]

WOW, that was accurate.

Well done Maverick --- $141m spot on (bodes well for Oceania profit this year with forcasting like that)

[winner69]

Couldn't have said it better myself -

Summerset Chief Executive Scott Scoullar said 2021 had been an extraordinarily good year for Summerset with record demand and build rates, reflecting the focus that Summerset has had over the last couple of years in keeping our residents safe and well cared for throughout the prevalence of COVID-19.

I underline the extraordinarily:t_up:

[alokdhir]

Funny you posted that just then Winner. I've been working on SUM today just for the exercise and a personal little "systems check".

I come up with a whopping $141m, I have not dug into covid cost adjustments though and just presumed they will be sort of steady.

I love their reports, they've really got the information delivery nailed down.

One surprise though was how their expenses have also been heavily climbing over many years, especially since they aren't "care " heavy.

Perfect forecast ....:t_up:

[Maverick]

Well done Maverick --- $141m spot on (bodes well for Oceania profit this year)
Cheers Winner and Alokdhir, I appreciate that !.. ( and yes, it does)

[winner69]

Doing it the proper way

Comprehensive Income $588m up from $234m the year before - up 151% and they paid $38m in divies

Book Value up to $1,925m or 42% - that's some gain

NTA $8.36 / Book Value $8.62

[winner69]

To highlight the recent carnage in the retirement sector (share price wise)

A year ago SUM share price $12.67 and trading at 2.1 times NTA

SUM shareprice now $11.60 and trading at 1.3 times NTA

A drop from 2.1 times to 1.3 times is some re-rating in valuation multiples eh

Maybe setting a new benchmark for the sector -- no high premium to NTA and you only get a premium if you perform.

[alokdhir]

To highlight the recent carnage in the retirement sector (share price wise)

A year ago SUM share price $12.67 and trading at 2.1 times NTA

SUM shareprice now $11.60 and trading at 1.3 times NTA

A drop from 2.1 times to 1.3 times is some re-rating in valuation multiples eh

Maybe setting a new benchmark for the sector -- no high premium to NTA and you only get a premium if you perform.

This is market at its almost worst for RVs ...mid point maybe better valuations ...Makes them good buys IMO

[percy]

Well done Maverick --- $141m spot on (bodes well for Oceania profit this year with forcasting like that)

Incredible.......You'ave done it again Maverick..

[Snoopy]

Incredible.......You'ave done it again Maverick..


Fantastic work Maverick, our should I say "Scott Scoullar" ;-)

SNOOPY