HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[vorno]

Back to business: Strike price for dividend reinvestment plan: http://www.heartland.co.nz/_upload/news/HNZ%20Strike%20Price%20Announcement.pdf

[winner69]

At this rate wish I had taken dividend in cash

This is not going to plan .....hope it not turning to custard and HNZ being affected by the malaise in the Australia banking stocks.

[percy]

At this rate wish I had taken dividend in cash

This is not going to plan .....hope it not turning to custard and HNZ being affected by the malaise in the Australia banking stocks.

Winner69,
I think Heartland is causing you too much anxiety.
Time for you to sell and move on.!

[Beagle]

Winner69,
I think Heartland is causing you too much anxiety.
Time for you to sell and move on.!

Unless there's a meaningful discount, (1% is not meaningful), this illustrates why I prefer to be in control of if / when I re-invest the divvy. You could have bought in reasonable volume at $1.00 at the close today.
Like the dog in the Toyota advertisement said when he tried to jump on the ute and landed in the cow shyte, Bugger !!

[percy]

I have dividend reinvestment,while the wife takes the cash,so have a bob each way.

[janner]

Unless there's a meaningful discount, (1% is not meaningful), this illustrates why I prefer to be in control of if / when I re-invest the divvy. You could have bought in reasonable volume at $1.00 at the close today.
Like the dog in the Toyota advertisement said when he tried to jump on the ute and landed in the cow shyte, Bugger !!

And paid Brokerage ;-)))

[Beagle]

And paid Brokerage ;-)))

$1.00 plus 0.2% brokerage thru ANZ Securities is still $1.002 v $1.015 for those that took shares in lieu.

[iceman]

$1.00 plus 0.2% brokerage thru ANZ Securities is still $1.002 v $1.015 for those that took shares in lieu.

You win some and you lose some. This time around one could have got slightly cheaper shares by buying on market but that is not always the case. The discount is low as HNZ does not really need the money at present but in my view the DRP is a great hassle free way of slowly and surely adding to my holding in a great
company ! While my faith in the company and management remains at the high level it currently is, the DRP is definitely for me. My paper profit will be looking even better once these new shares will be added. Keep them coming :)

Interesting article on Harmoney's progress on the online NBR today !

[percy]

$1.00 plus 0.2% brokerage thru ANZ Securities is still $1.002 v $1.015 for those that took shares in lieu.

The dividend will be paid on Friday evening the 3rd October,so it may pay to wait until we know the share price on Monday the 6th of October, before passing judgement.!

[janner]

$1.00 plus 0.2% brokerage thru ANZ Securities is still $1.002 v $1.015 for those that took shares in lieu.


Oye Veh !! :-)))

George Soros numbers maybe worth it. :-)))

[winner69]

The dividend will be paid on Friday evening the 3rd October,so it may pay to wait until we know the share price on Monday the 6th of October, before passing judgement.!

Hope it not below a $1 on Monday

I be really crumpy then .....or would you rather I be cranky or grumpy? This crumpiness is getting to me

[janner]

Hope it not below a $1 on Monday

I be really crumpy then .....or would you rather I be cranky or grumpy? This crumpiness is getting to me

Agree with percy's post 3788..

" Go and find a better ole then " :-)))

[percy]

Hope it not below a $1 on Monday

I be really crumpy then .....or would you rather I be cranky or grumpy? This crumpiness is getting to me

I think you need to take some time out,maybe plant a few more Rata.!

[bunter]

A few cents movement in a few days is just noise. If the stock's in a long term uptrend (and why else would you hold it?) on average, you're going to be better off taking the discount, however small, and saving the brokerage.

Unless you have the gift of knowing which way the price is going.

[vorno]

Has anyone received their dividend reinvestment statement? I may be mistaken but I thought today was the day?

EDIT: Email has come through, close of business!

[Under Surveillance]

Has anyone received their dividend reinvestment statement? I may be mistaken but I thought today was the day?
They are available on the Link website www.linkmarketservices.co.nz (http://www.linkmarketservices.co.nz)

[777]

Has anyone received their dividend reinvestment statement? I may be mistaken but I thought today was the day?

They would be posted today.

Patience.

[percy]

My dividend reinvestment shares are showing on my link holding statement,and wife's dividend is showing up in her bank account.
So all is good.!

[Beagle]

My dividend reinvestment shares are showing on my link holding statement,and wife's dividend is showing up in her bank account.
So all is good.!
Must depend on who you bank with as my HNZ divvy isn't showing up in my account yet but a nice juicy PGW one paid today is :)
P.S. You're almost square now mate on the divvy reinvestment thing.

[percy]

Must depend on who you bank with as my HNZ divvy isn't showing up in my account yet but a nice juicy PGW one paid today is :)
P.S. You're almost square now mate on the divvy reinvestment thing.

Don't tell anyone but the wife's HNZ divie goes into our joint a/c, while her PGW one goes into her separate a/c which I can't access.!
Must admit I sometimes think dividend reinvestment is the true meaning of compound interest!!!

[Jim]

Has anyone received their dividend reinvestment statement? I may be mistaken but I thought today was the day?

EDIT: Email has come through, close of business!

HNZ and PGW dividends are in my bank account very happy but I don't know where to invest the money in. NZ shares a I think is fully priced IMO. Just let it sit in the call account and wait........earning peanuts

[percy]

HNZ and PGW dividends are in my bank account very happy but I don't know where to invest the money in. NZ shares a I think is fully priced IMO. Just let it sit in the call account and wait........earning peanuts

I would not be in a hurry to invest it.
Peanuts are better than losing money.
Wait and take your time, and a good investment will come looking for you. !!

[Beagle]

HNZ and PGW dividends are in my bank account very happy but I don't know where to invest the money in. NZ shares a I think is fully priced IMO. Just let it sit in the call account and wait........earning peanuts

When all else fails just put it back into the company's it came from, both of which are excellent high divvy payers so even if you get no capital growth an average gross divvy yield of about 13% for those two is far better than 3% in a call account or you could buy say Genesis with a 11.5% gross divvy yield for some diversification
Still good opportunities in a sideways market. I still like GMT at $1.07 paying a fully taxed PIE return of 6% net which is 9% gross for anyone on a 33% tax rate. Shares don't have to go up for shareholders to get satisfactory returns :)

[Beagle]

Don't tell anyone but the wife's HNZ divie goes into our joint a/c, while her PGW one goes into her separate a/c which I can't access.!
Must admit I sometimes think dividend reinvestment is the true meaning of compound interest!!!

LOL LOL Much egg on face and one must always remember to laugh at oneself from time to time.
You can keep your $2 mate as I was wondering why my HNZ divvy didn;t come through to my account yesterday and then I got my electronic notification by e.mail and it appears I have forgotten that I did sign up for the divvy reinvestment scheme but have forgotten. LOL I suppose you're entitled to the odd forgetful matter as you get older :D Upside is I have more HNZ shares now.

[percy]

LOL LOL Much egg on face and one must always remember to laugh at oneself from time to time.
You can keep your $2 mate as I was wondering why my HNZ divvy didn;t come through to my account yesterday and then I got my electronic notification by e.mail and it appears I have forgotten that I did sign up for the divvy reinvestment scheme but have forgotten. LOL I suppose you're entitled to the odd forgetful matter as you get older :D Upside is I have more HNZ shares now.
Lol. Loved it.
All I can think is you find yourself "well positioned."
Enjoy the 8th wonder of the world.!!!

[percy]

$1.00 plus 0.2% brokerage thru ANZ Securities is still $1.002 v $1.015 for those that took shares in lieu.
Well today was judgement day,and all is well.!!!!
VWAP $1.0191. [plus no brokerage].

[Beagle]

Well today was judgement day,and all is well.!!!!
VWAP $1.0191. [plus no brokerage].

Just as well in a brief moment of extra intelligence and exuberance I did sign up for the reinvestment plan :D Sometimes as you age you don't realise how bright you once were LOL

[Cool Bear]

HNZ seems to have heavier volume today. Percy and Roger, you two stocking up for Christmas?

The last time it had decent volume was in beg Sep after which it climbed from the 93-95 range to the $1 range. The big volume day before that was in early July when it left the 85-90 range. An early Christmas present coming for us holders?

[Beagle]

Guilty as charged, I did buy some more this morning :)

[percy]

No, I have not brought any more for awhile,although I did get more via dividend reinvestment .
Am looking forward to reading the agm presentation on 31st of this month.
Could say, I am holding myself at the ready for breaking news!!
I looked earlier today, and noted solid depth on both the buy and sell, which I think is positive.
Roger's buying may be the buy signal, the market has been waiting for, to confirm the share price upward trajectory !!!! lol.

[winner69]

Pretty crap article but only wish some NZ guru would come up with a headline like this

Seize the day, buy banks, fund manager says
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/seize-the-day-buy-banks-fund-manager-says-20141015-11662e.html

HNZ needs all the help it can get as it slowly drifts down a slippery slope

C'mon - spread the word ......SEIZE THE DAY, BUY HEARTLAND



http://www.canberratimes.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/seize-the-day-buy-banks-fund-manager-says-20141015-11662e.html

[percy]

Pretty crap article but only wish some NZ guru would come up with a headline like this

Seize the day, buy banks, fund manager says
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/seize-the-day-buy-banks-fund-manager-says-20141015-11662e.html

HNZ needs all the help it can get as it slowly drifts down a slippery slope

C'mon - spread the word ......SEIZE THE DAY, BUY HEARTLAND



http://www.canberratimes.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/seize-the-day-buy-banks-fund-manager-says-20141015-11662e.html

My goodness,another Rivkin!!!
Must be Rene's son.?
When did he find time to breed?
But wait!!!!! There is now!!!!! Two sons,Jordan and Shannon.!!!

[winner69]

My goodness,another Rivkin!!!
Must be Rene's son.?
When did he find time to breed?

Thats why I said a pretty crap story .....but I'd take it if a Rivkin recommended Hnz as a BUY

[percy]

Thats why I said a pretty crap story .....but I'd take it if a Rivkin recommended Hnz as a BUY

For fear of being sued I dare not comment,other than I have a long memory!

[vorno]

Received my first payment from Harmoney - the system works, good return as well.

[winner69]

Roger, not many sleeps to go now until the big day Friday next week

Wonder what was this slide will look like this year

A standing ovation will be necessary after you read the heading

Pathway to Forecast Range of $47m-$49m FY15

I have my version already to compare

Be a BIG disappointment if Jeff's slide doesn't look like mine

[noodles]

Roger, not many sleeps to go now until the big day Friday next week

Wonder what was this slide will look like this year

A standing ovation will be necessary after you read the heading

Pathway to Forecast Range of $47m-$49m FY15

I have my version already to compare

Be a BIG disappointment if Jeff's slide doesn't look like mine

I'll look out for the guy booing. I'm guessing that will be you.

[Beagle]

W69. Realistically mate I am sure you would quietly agree its too early in the 2015 FY for any possibility of a forecast upgrade.

[winner69]

W69. Realistically mate I am sure you would quietly agree its too early in the 2015 FY for any possibility of a forecast upgrade.

Last Feb it was $42m-$44m. Stretched to $42m-$45m in August. Big deal eh

If they don't say something more positive next week they are having us all on ...or things aren't going to plan (to the hidden secret plan that is)

Going to be a boring meeting by what punter want. I aiming to be on way to the big day at Flemington instead if things turn out as I hope.

[Harvey Specter]

Roger, not many sleeps to go now until the big day Friday next weekWill be interesting if they say anything about Harmoney. Was it just a small investment, a blocking stake, or do they think it will have a big impact?

Shareprice stuck in that $1 range so hopefully some good info to be announced to spur it on.

[janner]

Why all these constant questions going back and forth ??

Either you have DYOR.. Or You have not !!...

Disc. Holding and building..

[Harvey Specter]

Why all these constant questions going back and forth ??..

Isn't that what you do on a Forum?

Disc: holding.

[janner]

Isn't that what you do on a Forum?

Disc: holding.

With so much repetition !!..

[winner69]

W69. Realistically mate I am sure you would quietly agree its too early in the 2015 FY for any possibility of a forecast upgrade.

Well, they nearly 4 months into the year so surely they know what H1 looks like.

I reckon $23m as bare minimum for H1 - what you reckon?

Anything less would would keep a trend in place but suggest HEL is adding any value at all, zilch

[Beagle]

I reckon they'll know how the first quarter has gone by Friday next week. Its too early in the year to start speculating on a possible 2015 upgrade. Just let some more water flow under the bridge mate.

[Beagle]

Chief risk office resigns today after a 4 year term. This messes with my head a bit because normally if its an amicable parting of the ways there's an agreement by the incumbent senior exec to stay on until a replacement is found.
Its what is not said in the NZX announcement that causes some grounds for concern and backs up my gut feel that the way HNZ is moving is more towards the consumer finance end of the risk spectrum which isn't where I feel especially comfortable after almost every man, his dog and his cat lost a great deal of money in this sector as a result of literally dozens of finance companies collapsing during the GFC.
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/d1bf2bc3/mark-mountcastle-resigns-as-chief-risk-officer-with-heartland-new-zealand.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Mark+Mountcastle+resigns+as+chief+ris k+officer+with+Heartland+New+Zealand&utm_content=Mark+Mountcastle+resigns+as+chief+risk +officer+with+Heartland+New+Zealand+CID_fee87b95fa c1065c2d09dcd7a104085c&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticled1bf2bc3mark-mountcastle-resigns-as-chief-risk-officer-with-heartland-new-zealandhtml

Stock appears to have become stuck in the current 99-100 rut lately. Thoughts ???

[forest]

Resignation of Chief Risk Officer
12:13pm, 24 Oct 2014 | OFFICE
NZX Release

24 October 2014

Resignation of Chief Risk Officer

Heartland New Zealand Limited (NZX: HNZ) advises that Chief Risk Officer (CRO) Mark Mountcastle has resigned but will remain with Heartland until 30 November 2014.

Mark Mountcastle has been CRO at Heartland since July 2010. Jeff Greenslade, Heartland’s Chief Executive Officer, said that during his time at Heartland Mark has made a significant contribution and has created a strong risk culture within the organisation.

Heartland has commenced a recruitment process for a new Chief Risk Officer and expects to announce a successor to Mr Mountcastle shortly. In the meantime, Chief Financial Officer, Simon Owen, has been appointed Acting Chief Risk Officer.

-Ends-

For additional information contact:

Jeff Greenslade
Chief Executive Officer
Heartland New Zealand Limited
DDI 09 927 9149
M 021 563 593

Mark Mountcasle is only leaving at the end of November 14 (5 weeks away), and HNZ seems comfortable with a temporary fix, the CFO will will be the Acting Chief Risk Officer.

[winner69]

Chief risk office resigns today after a 4 year term. This messes with my head a bit because normally if its an amicable parting of the ways there's an agreement by the incumbent senior exec to stay on until a replacement is found.
Its what is not said in the NZX announcement that causes some grounds for concern and backs up my gut feel that the way HNZ is moving is more towards the consumer finance end of the risk spectrum which isn't where I feel especially comfortable after almost every man, his dog and his cat lost a great deal of money in this sector as a result of literally dozens of finance companies collapsing during the GFC.
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/d1bf2bc3/mark-mountcastle-resigns-as-chief-risk-officer-with-heartland-new-zealand.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Mark+Mountcastle+resigns+as+chief+ris k+officer+with+Heartland+New+Zealand&utm_content=Mark+Mountcastle+resigns+as+chief+risk +officer+with+Heartland+New+Zealand+CID_fee87b95fa c1065c2d09dcd7a104085c&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticled1bf2bc3mark-mountcastle-resigns-as-chief-risk-officer-with-heartland-new-zealandhtml

Stock appears to have become stuck in the current 99-100 rut lately. Thoughts ???

At least he wasn't fired

I am thinking I got it all wrong with HNZ and in spite of all the nice slides and good stories maybe the good times are coming to an end and things are going to be a struggle from here on.

Talk of financial engineering to increase ROE and your comments re risk don't give me the warm fuzzies.

I need mor than nice slides and rhetoric next Friday to be comfortable ....I need some real stuff ....a 'we are comfortable with our $42m to $45m guidance' just won't cut it. That would be bad news and confirm that things are tougher than last year

[percy]

Having done an excellent job at Heartland, Mark has most probably moved to a bigger better job.
We lost Craig Stephen to a big position with Tainui about a year ago.
Heartland will look good on anybody's CV.
Normal coming and going to me.
What is important is the fact Jeff Greenslade has been able to attract the people he wants.
I am sorry I will not be able to attend the agm next Friday,however I am confident I will be able to read the presentations,and look forward to sharetraders'reports of the meeting.
I am a very contented shareholder,over joyed with the progress the company has made,and feel sure Heartland have a big contribution to
make to NZ's future, by providing heartland NZ with excellent banking services.

[Beagle]

There's a button in edit for delete's mate. You've got to hit delete and then click on the little square box to the left of the page that also says delete.

W69 - My B.S. metre is now on switched on and tuned to maximum sensitivity. They didn't need this just before the ASM. With timing like this (I do not believe in coincidences), I can't help my mind wandering and wondering if the executive in question isn't trying to telegraph a message to shareholders ? OTOH maybe I'm reading too much into this... at the moment I seem to be sniffing risk with a higher degree of sensitivity than a beagle dog at the airport, maybe I should apply for the job lol.

[percy]

There's a button in edit for delete's mate. You've got to hit delete and then click on the little square box to the left of the page that also says delete.

W69 - My B.S. metre is now on switched on and tuned to maximum sensitivity. They didn't need this just before the ASM. With timing like this (I do not believe in coincidences), I can't help my mind wandering and wondering if the executive in question isn't trying to telegraph a message to shareholders ? OTOH maybe I'm reading too much into this...

Roger grab a cool beer and relax.If that does not work,have another,and another until such time you do relax.
It is not a big deal.
People come in, do a good job and move on.Sean Kam came aboard,did a great job,job done ,left,Craig Stephen came aboard,did a great job,moved to a bigger job at Tainui.Some one moves out/on, the window of opportunity opens for some-one else.!

[forest]

Thanks Roger that worked.

maybe I'm reading too much into this.., I think you do.

I like to suggest you phone JG with any questions or start you beer O'Clock and relax. :)

[Beagle]

So in summary, I could worry and be a bear, or drink some beer, or go upstairs and ask the Mrs to get bare :D

[Harvey Specter]

Chief risk office resigns today after a 4 year term. This messes with my head a bit because normally if its an amicable parting of the ways there's an agreement by the incumbent senior exec to stay on until a replacement is found.That only happens if they have resigned but dont currently have another job.

I assume he has another job lined up and is working out his 3 months notice. Dont read too much into it yet.

[bunter]

Stock appears to have become stuck in the current 99-100 rut lately. Thoughts ???
1) HNZ looks like it's in a long strong uptrend - see attached. The adjusted SP hasn't even touched the MA50 yet. 2) The NZSE seems to be in a bull market. 3) Sit! See sig quote.6395

[percy]

1) HNZ looks like it's in a long strong uptrend - see attached. The adjusted SP hasn't even touched the MA50 yet. 2) The NZSE seems to be in a bull market. 3) Sit! See sig quote.6395

Thanks Bunter.
Looks as though we are "well positioned." lol.

[simla]

Heartland in the "NZX's best performing shares of 2014 " in the Herald. http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11349388

A feather in your cap, Percy :)

[forest]

[QUOTE=simla;513770]Heartland in the "NZX's best performing shares of 2014 " in the Herald. http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11349388

A feather in your cap, Percy :)[/QUOTE

[Deej5]

Heartland in the "NZX's best performing shares of 2014 " in the Herald. http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11349388

A feather in your cap, Percy :)

10th best, still good enough.

[percy]

Looks to me as though we are "well positioned."
Here's looking at making the top 10 again next year.!!

[winner69]

Probably fall out of the Top 10 by years end unless something good comes out on Friday

Pretty pictures in a slideshow doesn't cut it now ...but then again it is only an annual meeting of suppliers of capital so they can buy things and hope like hell they are eps accretive

[percy]

Probably fall out of the Top 10 by years end unless something good comes out on Friday

Pretty pictures in a slideshow doesn't cut it now ...but then again it is only an annual meeting of suppliers of capital so they can buy things and hope like hell they are eps accretive

You still here?
Thought you sold out a week or two ago.
Best to sell at open tomorrow morning!!
ps.I just love HNZ's presentations.Tell what they are going to do,and they do it.Simple!

[Beagle]

Probably fall out of the Top 10 by years end unless something good comes out on Friday

Pretty pictures in a slideshow doesn't cut it now ...but then again it is only an annual meeting of suppliers of capital so they can buy things and hope like hell they are eps accretive
Oh you're getting old and cynical W69. You want to deal with a company that treats shareholders like nothing more than a pesky nuisance supplier...get some sum.

[couta1]

Well HNZ at 10 and CNU at 5, I know which has been the better of the two for me and I'll give you a hint its the one without hundreds of vans running around.

[Beagle]

Well HNZ at 10 and CNU at 5, I know which has been the better of the two for me and I'll give you a hint its the one without hundreds of vans running around.

Mate I wouldn't mind a little wager that you're a little surprised at Chorus and Spark's performance, I know I am.

[couta1]

Mate I wouldn't mind a little wager that you're a little surprised at Chorus and Spark's performance, I know I am.
Yeah I am but I think Chorus is currently overcooked in the light of the upcoming Con.Con decision, could be a nasty sting yet to come.

[Beagle]

Well they certainly "gave it" to Vector and now they're bleating like a lamb lost from its mother so you could be right.

W69 - I'm as miffed as anyone else that HNZ have stopped for a lengthy break at the current juncture but fact is they're inexpensive on a PE basis, pay attractive fully imputed dividends and have relatively low volatility so a patient man is rewarded over time :)

[forest]

Fitch raises credit rating on Heartland Bank
8:30am, 29 Oct 2014 | CREDIT
NZX Release

Fitch raises credit rating on Heartland Bank

28 October 2014

Heartland New Zealand Limited (NZX: HNZ) is pleased to announce that Fitch Rating (Fitch Australia Pty Ltd) has raised its long term issuer credit rating on HNZ subsidiary Heartland Bank Limited (Bank) to ‘BBB’ from ‘BBB-’ outlook stable. The full release from Fitch Rating is attached.

Fitch Rating noted the Bank’s consistent reduction in non-core assets resulting in improved asset quality and stronger earnings, and that its business model focuses on niche markets in which it has a leading market share.

Heartland is pleased with the raised rating, which follows Standard & Poor’s raising the Bank’s credit rating earlier this year (22 May 2014).

- Ends -

For further information please contact:

Jeff Greenslade
Managing Director
Heartland New Zealand Limited
DDI 09 927 9149

[percy]

Thanks for your post Forest.
Credit rating upgrades are always welcome.
Still "well positioned" although I am holding myself "at the ready" for your, and other sharetraders' reports on Friday's agm.
Best report/reporter will enjoy a large beer/or large glass of wine next time we have a get toghther.
No Roger,a beer, not a keg!! lol.

[Beagle]

Thanks for your post Forest.
Credit rating upgrades are always welcome.
Still "well positioned" although I am holding myself "at the ready" for your, and other sharetraders' reports on Friday's agm.
Best report/reporter will enjoy a large beer/or large glass of wine next time we have a get toghther.
No Roger,a beer, not a keg!! lol.

lol I'm not that bad...although rumour has it that the local bank manager was seen lugging a keg down the marina walkway early last summer. For some strange reason I can't remember what happened to that keg or how I managed to dock the boat back into the marina after the trip out lol

[Onion]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/28/fitch-upgrades-nzs-heartland-bank-affirm-idUSFit80002120141028?feedType=RSS&feedName=financialsSector
(http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/28/fitch-upgrades-nzs-heartland-bank-affirm-idUSFit80002120141028?feedType=RSS&feedName=financialsSector)
Heartland Bank Limited

KEY RATING DRIVERS - IDRs AND VR The upgrade of HBL's Long- and Short-Term IDRs and VR reflect the bank's consistent reduction in non-core assets resulting in improved asset quality and stronger earnings. At the financial year end 30 June 2014 (FY14) HBL's non-core asset portfolio stood at NZD41m. HBL expects to reduce the portfolio to NZD26m by end-2014, while maintaining current provisioning levels. At this point the portfolio would be unlikely to present a material risk to the bank's capitalisation and profitability. HBL's funding and liquidity profile is adequate for its rating level. It makes greater use of wholesale funding relative to most of its domestic peers, with a loan/ deposit ratio of 116% at FYE14, leaving it somewhat susceptible to investor confidence. In addition, HBL's on-balance sheet liquidity is lower than domestic peers. This risk is partly offset by HBL's shorter duration loan portfolio. Around 53% of HBL's liabilities maturing within 12 months are covered by maturing assets at FYE14. HBL's business model focuses on lending niche markets in which it has a leading market share. As a result, HBL generates a stronger net interest margin than peers despite the riskier lending profile. Fitch expects HBL's core asset quality to remain sound, benefiting from strengthened underwriting standards and good economic conditions. In addition, HBL's capital ratios are adequate relative to its risks.

RATING SENSITIVITIES - IDRs AND VR HBL's IDRs and VR are sensitive to changes in its company profile and risk appetite. A weaker company profile - mainly reflected in its business model and franchise, could impact the bank's earnings performance and could lead to a change in risk appetite, placing negative pressure on HBL's asset quality and/or capital, funding and liquidity positions. Positive rating action is unlikely in the short- to medium-term.

[vorno]

...Still "well positioned" although I am holding myself "at the ready" for your, and other sharetraders' reports on Friday's agm.


Now I must be missing something (either that or I can't read) - The AGM notice that went out mentioned that it was important to RSVP, however it didn't say how they want to receive the notifications of interest!

[percy]

Now I must be missing something (either that or I can't read) - The AGM notice that went out mentioned that it was important to RSVP, however it didn't say how they want to receive the notifications of interest!

Just make sure you attend it!!

[winner69]

ps.I just love HNZ's presentations.Tell what they are going to do,and they do it.Simple!

Love the way you keep reminding me they tell what they are going to do, and they do it.

They have said a few things they are going to do in FY15. And to date guidance says they are not going to do it.

Guidance of $42m-$45m is a marginal increase in EPS. They said Seniors buy was to be EPS accretive. Fail if guidance is all they achieve in FY15

Guidance of $42m-$45m will be a ROE <10%. They say they will increase ROE. Another fail if guidance is all they achieve in FY15.

Might need to financial engineering to achieve a higher ROE. A cop out if this is necessary. Jeff did say preferred way was to increase earnings. Guidance achieved and another fail.

Achieving what they say they will do. Percy, that means doing better than $42m-$45m in FY15

Hope ASM is more than just a review of FY14

[percy]

Having being fortunate to have attended previous AGMs,I can confirm they continue to achieve what they say they will do.!
Always have.!
Another rating upgrade is just another "run on the board".
I look forward to reading the AGM presentations, and commentary/reports from Sharetraders who attend the meeting.
Any further profit guidance will be of interest.

[winner69]

Hope it wasn't too boring Roger

The only decent slide was Slide 19 but you and I already knew that

Spose the words were if we increase ROE and we educate the market about how good we are we might get rerated ..... now there is a challenge for Jeff

[kizame]

Hope it wasn't too boring Roger

The only decent slide was Slide 19 but you and I already knew that

Spose the words were if we increase ROE and we educate the market about how good we are we might get rerated ..... now there is a challenge for Jeff

You seem to be a bit negative on this company winner, I like the bit about growth through aquisitions(and new product developement) for the full year of 2015,makes me think things are in the pipeline already.

[winner69]

You seem to be a bit negative on this company winner, I like the bit about growth through aquisitions(and new product developement) for the full year of 2015,makes me think things are in the pipeline already.

Only negative because $42m-$45m earnings is not performing to potential. As long as they stick to that guidance I will have doubts as to whether rhetoric will turn into reality.

On the other hand they maybe not being totally transparent and reality is $47m-$49m, performing to potential that is.

Every year HNZ make more in H2 than H1 .....and first quarter of $11m in that context does not equate with $42m-$45m FY guidance

Look forward to hearing what Roger says about Slide 19. Obviously some hidden message.

Still grumpy but still holding, and hoping $1.30 by June next year happens.

[percy]

Just read the agm presentations.
I am one very happy shareholder, and having built such a solid foundation Heartland's future is secure.In fact it looks very bright to me.!

[janner]

Having being fortunate to have attended previous AGMs,I can confirm they continue to achieve what they say they will do.!
Always have.!
Another rating upgrade is just another "run on the board".
I look forward to reading the AGM presentations, and commentary/reports from Sharetraders who attend the meeting.
Any further profit guidance will be of interest.

For percy !!..

Regrets, I've had a few;
But then again, too few to mention.
I did what I had to do
And saw it through without exemption.

I planned each charted course;
Each careful step along the byway,
And more, much more than this,
I did it my way.

You were correct.. I sold a third.. :-(((

Over weight... :-)))

Been re-purchasing ever since

In a small way..

My WAAAYYY !!.. :-))

[percy]

For percy !!..

Regrets, I've had a few;
But then again, too few to mention.
I did what I had to do
And saw it through without exemption.

I planned each charted course;
Each careful step along the byway,
And more, much more than this,
I did it my way.

You were correct.. I sold a third.. :-(((

Over weight... :-)))

Been re-purchasing ever since

In a small way..

My WAAAYYY !!.. :-))

Have no regrets.
Your way works very well.
You are well positioned.!!!!

[noodles]

Look forward to hearing what Roger says about Slide 19. Obviously some hidden message.



The message was that they are below par on ROE. Their goal is to increase it.
pg.23 says how
--New initiatives not included (but imminent)
– Acquisitions not included (still keen on MTF)
– Possibility of capital review is not included (read buyback)

[janner]

Have no regrets.
Your way works very well.
You are well positioned.!!!!

Missionary I presume !!.. Boring ..

[zigzag]

Missionary I presume !!.. Boring ..

Maybe, you could buy Percy a copy of the "Kama Sutra" for Christmas, so he could get a bit more, variety that is.

[Beagle]

Roger would commewnt buyt hew was last seen multiple times trying to log on to his wqon computer but was strufgling to type the password correctky.. Forst is rumoured to have disclaimed all liability on ther basis that he offered to be the designated driver.

Roger was rumoured to have blurted that he might post something vaguly resembling an intelloif#gent reconllection when's he's recovered from HNZ's excessive hosp[ilatity. Now where's the bloody spell check buttonw the sp[eell cjeck button lol The writer ghereby deny['s any allergation thast free alcolhol has any part o#in his inbvestment decisions.

Hopefully the inibreated old fool cab recollect something rsational tomorrow.

P.S. We appear to be well positioned :D :D :D :D :D :D alploigies I mifght have plaguris#zed that line from someone else I wonder who ????

[janner]

Maybe, you could buy Percy a copy of the "Kama Sutra" for Christmas, so he could get a bit more, variety that is.

percy is a seller if books..

I am sure he knows the in's and outs .. :-)))

[percy]

Roger would commewnt buyt hew was last seen multiple times trying to log on to his wqon computer. Forst is rumoured to have disclaimed all liability on ther basis that he offered to be the designated driver.

Roger was rumoured to have blurted that he might post something vaguly resembling an intelloif#gent reconllection when's he's recovered from HNZ's excessive hosp[ilatity. Now where's the bloody spell check buttonw the sp[eell cjeck button lol The writer ghereby deny['s any allergation thast free alcolhol has any part o#in his inbvestment decisions.
Proof that 4pm Friday afternoon for HNZ agm has its merits.!!
Wonder where next year's will be?

[percy]

percy is a seller if books..

I am sure he knows the in's and outs .. :-)))

Closest I get to selling hot titles is ;The Little Golden book of "BLUE' stories.!!!

[winner69]

Roger, not many sleeps to go now until the big day Friday next week

Wonder what was this slide below will look like this year

A standing ovation will be necessary after you read the heading

Pathway to Forecast Range of $47m-$49m FY15

I have my version already to compare

Be a BIG disappointment if Jeff's slide doesn't look like mine

Well well, slides 22 ad 23 only words this year. No nice graphic of the pathway to say $44m

Methinks they did one but had problems making it come to $44m .....translate the words to numbers ey come to more than $44m. Bugger, bit embarrassing so just use words eh

Oh well, just need to wait until after Xmas for the big surprise. You guys are too soft on jeff.

[janner]

Roger appears to have been intoxicated by the promise of greater thing to come..


Shablosshutly .. Nothing .. to dooooooooo Oshiffer with theeee reeeeson's I will posssst llllater .. :-))

[percy]

Roger appears to have been intoxicated by the promise of greater thing to come..


Shablosshutly .. Nothing .. to dooooooooo Oshiffer with theeee reeeeson's I will posssst llllater .. :-))

Oh no!!!
Not you too Janner.
Seems the only true and accurate record we are going to get is from Forest.!!
Where is he?
I am not going to miss next year's.I guess if it is in Wellington we will get to see W69 doing the Rata Tree mating dance, after he has enjoyed Heartland's hospitality.That may be preferable to letting the Tauranga Crew loose!

[Beagle]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/d8b71f80/heartland-affirms-fy-guidance-sees-consumer-lending-growth-of-up-to-10.html

Dis in gunna make more sense than anything I remember tonight.

Zzzzzzzz Hopefully I'll remember someting meaningful tomorrow.

[janner]

A good night to Roger..

And a good year to all Holders !!!..

:-))))))))

A happy holder..

[forest]

The message was that they are below par on ROE. Their goal is to increase it.
pg.23 says how
--New initiatives not included (but imminent)
– Acquisitions not included (still keen on MTF)
– Possibility of capital review is not included (read buyback)

OK What I took out of the AGM, is what noodles already mentioned but I will expand on it a little.
--New initiatives not included (but imminent) HNZ are working on new products but we have not included any of the possible profits in the 2015 profit FC

– Acquisitions not included But we are considering one or more at present.

I think return on E is likely to improve for a few years coming, its really were there must be potential as other banks are showing better return on E.

The other clear lesson was that Roger is likely to enjoy the AGM of Delegats Wines, but sorry Roger I like DGL dividends to much so I wont be the sober driver for their AGM. :)

[iceman]

OK What I took out of the AGM, is what noodles already mentioned but I will expand on it a little.
--New initiatives not included (but imminent) HNZ are working on new products but we have not included any of the possible profits in the 2015 profit FC

– Acquisitions not included But we are considering one or more at present.

I think return on E is likely to improve for a few years coming, its really were there must be potential as other banks are showing better return on E.

The other clear lesson was that Roger is likely to enjoy the AGM of Delegats Wines, but sorry Roger I like DGL dividends to much so I wont be the sober driver for their AGM. :)

Thanks for your take on it Forest. Much appreciated.
Thanks also for getting Roger home safely as we would miss him terribly if something happened to him :-)

[percy]

Thanks for your take on it Forest. Much appreciated.
Thanks also for getting Roger home safely as we would miss him terribly if something happened to him :-)

Well put Iceman,and yes thank you Forest.

[Beagle]

Thanks for your take on it Forest. Much appreciated.
Thanks also for getting Roger home safely as we would miss him terribly if something happened to him :-)

Ooohhh shucks, you're too kind mate and thanks Forest for the lift home.
Forest and Noodles have summed it up well. All I can add is that from recollection they're growing the share of the pie that's their sweet spot products with higher margins which represent about 75% of lending now.
They're looking at initiatives to improve their return on equity, I guess a buy-back isn't out of the question. Dairy lending is a tad over one third of their rural book, mostly livestock.
I think there's upside to their $42-$45m. As Forest mentioned as none of the new initiatives, products or possible acquisitions are factored into that forecast.
I see $1.10-$1.20 in 12 months time. There was talk about $2.00 at one stage last evening but aforementioned alcoholic beverages might have played a part in that lol.
Good solid bank with 15% equity ratio, good management, low SP volatility, excellent fully imputed yield, sound prospects for future growth and trading on a conservatively estimated 2015 EPS of 9.3 cents for a 2015 PE of only 10.75. What's not too like ????

P.S. It was a pleasure to meet Mrs Forest and Noodles yesterday.
P.P.S. We are well positioned :D

[percy]

Thanks for your post.
Sounds as though you didn't miss anything before you hit the hospitality!!!! lol.
Confirms to me we have invested in a very sound, well managed bank,on modest ratios, with a very bright future.
"We are well positioned" superbly sums it up.!!! lol.
ps.A very big day for me yesterday watching my two biggest investments;HNZ and EBO.
Both confirmed my confidence in them is well founded.

[Balance]

And thank you very much to Georgie Porgie Kerr for making shares available at half price!

[janner]

Thanks for your post.
Sounds as though you didn't miss anything before you hit the hospitality!!!! lol.
Confirms to me we have invested in a very sound, well managed bank,on modest ratios, with a very bright future.
"We are well positioned" superbly sums it up.!!! lol.
ps.A very big day for me yesterday watching my two biggest investments;HNZ and EBO.
Both confirmed my confidence in them is well founded.

Braggart !!!.. :-)))))))

[percy]

Braggart !!!.. :-)))))))

True.........
And a very happy one..!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[forest]

And thank you very much to Georgie Porgie Kerr for making shares available at half price!

I second that Balance, Georgie K has been very kind to sell HNZ at a good discount and he was so generous with the quantity he was willing to part with.

And you Balance was generous to share this info at the time, very much appreciated.

[SCOTTY]

Hi Guys

Thanks very much for all the AGM reports, particularly input from Forest, Roger and Noodles. And you as well Percy for your excellent observations even though like me you could not make the meeting. With low static interest rates, Heartland paying divies of 6 - 7% (TAX PAID) is a very attractive proposition when compared to other investments, especially with growth potential going forward. Yes, I am a very confident, happy, relaxed holder. :)


Regards

[Beagle]

It was good to chew the fat with you at the ASM. You should post more often mate. That was a good one. As you've suggested I think it pays at this stage to not get too enthusiastic about the prospects for early EPS accretive acquisitions or initiatives.
That said I note that HNZ is trading on a PE of only 10.75 based on the mid point of the existing forecast which is a considerably more attractive multiple than the Aussie banks and there's also the advantage of full imputation credits being available to HNZ shareholders. I hold with an accumulate more on any weakness bias.

[percy]

In a departure from my normal 'don't post' attitude, a few impressions from the ASM.
The reports from Chair Geoff Ricketts, and CEO Jeff Greenslade were formal, tightly
scripted readings that didn't deviate from the slides. So no extra take outs from
that part of the meeting.



I don't place too much hope on these 'drivers'. I don't see them as bankable goldnuggets.
More like carrots for the faithful.


Very impressed with Geoff Ricketts. Firm control of the meeting and answered questions
clearly. He seems to know the business inside out. Very postive.

A shareholder (who may have been noodles) asked a question about MTF. The answer was that
they were happy that Heartland loan fees were in accord with the guidance from the court.
Yes, still interested in MTF, but many loose threads need to be tied down first.
A shareholder proposed ditching and running from the P2P Harmoney investment. Ricketts
explained that it was an niche opportunity worth the risk. If it came off, a new
market channel, small beer if not successful.

Two shareholders grumbled about SPP raisings, where the insto's get the cream and shareholders
get scaled, and lose access to their cash. It was acknowledged that rights issues are
better, and the meeting was told it was thought a quick method of getting the cash to buy
the HER business.

Jackie Staley, proxy holder for NZSA, requested boardmembers seeking election address the
meeting. She was swiftly knocked back with 'that's not how we do it....but.... '.

On the resolution to raise the limits on board fees, there was an opinion that there
seemed to be large number of directors arranged at tables in front of the meeting,for
such a small company.
Bruce Irvine, Chair of Heartland Bank, chimed in a couple of times to expand on aspects
such as the separation of HNZ; the listed holding company, and Heartland Bank; which has
its own independent board, where regulators know who to drag, cuffed and dishevelled, on
the perp-walk if things go bad. So, there was in fact two boards of directors spread before
the meeting, along with General Council, Company Secretary and other management personnel.
Ricketts explained that the increase was to provide for a new; local aussie knowledge,
independent board member for the aussie HER business. There was some unused funds in the
current allocation but some headroom was considered appropriate. The meeting seemed satisfied
with that approach.

The fool can confirm boosting dividends by consuming two glasses of wine and some nibbles,
but Mr and Mrs Forest and Roger had a headstart because the greater fool snookered the CEO
and CFO behind their table and the lecturn for a chat, before imbibing.

Carrots vs drivers.!!
Two years ago at the agm in Ashburton the CEO spoke of the low ROE, and how they were aiming at 10%.I would have thought it would take them 3 or 4 years.Virtually achieved in 2 years.
Last year the CEO spoke of HNZ looking at acquisitions.I would have thought of some bolt-on done out of cash,say $25 to $30mil.But no they brought another up and running division when they brought the REL business.
MTF.Would be a fantastic fit,delivering a stable bank, backing dealers' finance deals.Would deliver to HNZ a lot of Ford,Honda and other very good dealers.
I note in the presentations reference to Australian banks, comparing them to HNZ.Special interest to me were ROE and sp compared with NTA.Should HNZ achieve ROE of 11% or more, I think they too will trade at 1.9times NTA.
I think Noodle's post was very much as I see it. HNZ have a habit to turning Carrots into reality!!
Jackie Staley.Last year a very nice old guy asked the same of Chairman Geoff Ricketts,who rudely told him the same "That's not how we do it."May not be the same on Suncorp Group Ltd,an $18.8 billion Australian listed Banking and Insurance company, Ricketts has been a director on since 2007,but it is certainly the way other Christchurch companies such as Ryman and Ebos do it.Maybe the year he is up for re election they may do it.!!! lol.

[iceman]

Thanks "greater fool" for a good informative post.

[Beagle]

Nice bounce today. People seem pleased with ASM, the first quarter of $11m, compares to a first half last year of $16.7m, (so indicatively up nearly 32%), and the Fitch credit rating upgrade.
Management give the impression of a very bright bunch of experienced people who are doing a very good job :)

[winner69]

Thanks for the ASM reports.

Just as I thought Mr Ricketts and Mr Greenslade have you besotted shareholders by the short and curlies.

Greater fool, love your 'firm control' and 'formal tightly scripted readings that didn't deviate from the slides' comments

Sounds like an evangelical outing, preaching to the converted like.

Probably Greenslade had to keep to the script, would have been easy to let slip that they were actually on track to $49m - and thats before the carrots grow into reality.

You guys are too easy on your servants.

Anyway the market seems to approve but with a bit of push could easily be 110 now.

[Beagle]

I agree that the official forecast is now looking very conservative especially after a first quarter of $11m that included significant expenses marketing the HER product.

PS bought more this morning.

[kizame]

Looking at market depth this afternoon this stock could jump again,climbing the now widening bollinger bands.
Go baby.

[Beagle]

Rumour doing the rounds in professional circles in Auckland today was that a silly old accountant in Titirangi was playing with his abacus today.
$11m first quarter, $12m second quarter, $13m third quarter, $14m fourth quarter as they continue to build their book of high margin loans = $50m for 2015.
This was said to get him in a happy mood so he then kept playing and worked out that if growth continued at the same rate that would amount to $66m for 2016. $66m over $490m =EPS of 13.46 x PE of say 12 = $1.61 in two years....hmmm....Something so simple couldn't possibly be plausible though could it :D

[kizame]

Rumour doing the rounds in professional circles in Auckland today was that a silly old accountant in Titirangi was playing with his abacus today.
$11m first quarter, $12m second quarter, $13m third quarter, $14m fourth quarter as they continue to build their book of high margin loans = $50m for 2015.
This was said to get him in a happy mood so he then kept playing and worked out that if growth continued at the same rate that would amount to $66m for 2016. $66m over $490m =EPS of 13.46 x PE of say 12 = $1.61 in two years....hmmm....Something so simple couldn't possibly be plausible though could it :D

Yes it definately could and i would say is on the cards,lets not forget they are in asset buying mode,and if they havn't bought something significant by then,they would have gone to sleep haha.
I'm not an accountant but this is so likely i'm staying in this time without trading out.

[winner69]

Rumour doing the rounds in professional circles in Auckland today was that a silly old accountant in Titirangi was playing with his abacus today.
$11m first quarter, $12m second quarter, $13m third quarter, $14m fourth quarter as they continue to build their book of high margin loans = $50m for 2015.
This was said to get him in a happy mood so he then kept playing and worked out that if growth continued at the same rate that would amount to $66m for 2016. $66m over $490m =EPS of 13.46 x PE of say 12 = $1.61 in two years....hmmm....Something so simple couldn't possibly be plausible though could it :D

Funny enough that's essentially how they been tracking for the last 3 half years.

Earnings for the last 3 half half years have consistently been $3m more than the previous half year. So you $1m plus $2m equals $3m for a half year ....just how they have been tracking in the past.

However you probably wrong - past performance is no guarantee of future performance

Of course not .....things get better. They have those old people loans now and they must get something out of that eh. Your $50m a bit short of reality methinks.

I cracked Jeffs code a while ago. I know how he came up with $34m-$37m last year and how he came up with $42m to $45m for this year. The magic formula comes up with the guidance and you manage to just below the top end, I make no mention what you manage so no jumping to conclusions

[winner69]

Yes it definately could and i would say is on the cards,lets not forget they are in asset buying mode,and if they havn't bought something significant by then,they would have gone to sleep haha.
I'm not an accountant but this is so likely i'm staying in this time without trading out.

C'mon kizame, roger is just being plain silly.

i told him not to read the Xero thread.

Look what it's done to him. He's valuing a boring old bank like one of these fandangled SaaS companies.

Never mind he will get over it and do a proper valuation of Heartland the old fashioned way like he knows best. The answer will probably be $50m for FY15

[kizame]

C'mon kizame, roger is just being plain silly.

i told him not to read the Xero thread.

Look what it's done to him. He's valuing a boring old bank like one of these fandangled SaaS compani
Never mind he will get over it and do a proper valuation of Heartland the old fashioned way like he knows best. The answer will probably be $50m for FY15

Exellent! It takes a lot to get an accountant excited,about anything really. So if he's excited,then the normally really excited people have gone very quiet,hmmn.

[winner69]

Exellent! It takes a lot to get an accountant excited,about anything really. So if he's excited,then the normally really excited people have gone very quiet,hmmn.

'Well positioned' and all its variants are so old hat aren't they kizame

I heard the usually staid as Rod Duke on the radio today say Briscoes profits are going to be 'spectacular' ......jeez that's excitement

Heartland too tightly controlled to allow Jeff to use such words - isn't that boring

I decree the use of 'well positioned' or any variant thereof is banned on this thread

[janner]

'Well positioned' and all its variants are so old hat aren't they kizame

I heard the usually staid as Rod Duke on the radio today say Briscoes profits are going to be 'spectacular' ......jeez that's excitement

Heartland too tightly controlled to allow Jeff to use such words - isn't that boring

I decree the use of 'well positioned' or any variant thereof is banned on this thread


Agreeeeed !!.. Cough Cough.. Slip of the pen..

percy !!.. Ve haf our veye's off making you obey !!!

Zere vill be kno more attrition ( Attention ).. drawn TO OUR veb SITE.. YA !!..

[percy]

'Well positioned' and all its variants are so old hat aren't they kizame

I heard the usually staid as Rod Duke on the radio today say Briscoes profits are going to be 'spectacular' ......jeez that's excitement

Heartland too tightly controlled to allow Jeff to use such words - isn't that boring

I decree the use of 'well positioned' or any variant thereof is banned on this thread

I think a lot of people would agree with you,and other late comers, to the Heartland success story.However a great number of sharetraders who brought Heartland and the "well positioned"posts at 58 cents ,68 cents,78 cents and 88cents would say it has served them well.If it works,why ban it??????????????? lol.

[winner69]

I think a lot of people would agree with you,and other late comers, to the Heartland success story.However a great number of sharetraders who brought Heartland and the "well positioned"posts at 58 cents ,68 cents,78 cents and 88cents would say it has served them well.If it works,why ban it??????????????? lol.

The past is the past Percy

We are in a vibrant new world where boring is out

Spectacular is the thing now, hard to see Jeff saying such a word though

[percy]

The past is the past Percy

We are in a vibrant new world where boring is out

Spectacular is the thing now, hard to see Jeff saying such a word though


I am more than happy to have my money in a business built on sound old fashioned values and balance sheet strength.
If you are looking for the vibrant new world, look elsewhere. I note it did not take you long to become bored.You can join Rod Duke at either Briscoes or Pumpkin Patch.You certainly would not be bored at either.
May you live in exciting times.!!! lol.

[Xerof]

With Enthusiasts Lying Low, People Of Similar Ilk Think I Ought Not Encourage Debate


oops.....sorry

[winner69]

I am more than happy to have my money in a business built on sound old fashioned values and balance sheet strength.
If you are looking for the vibrant new world, look elsewhere. I note it did not take you long to become bored.You can join Rod Duke at either Briscoes or Pumpkin Patch.You certainly would not be bored a either.

But making $50m this year is 'spectacular' so why should you be happy with them leading you up the garden path with their $42m guidance. Let's get real here, after all they got shareholders to stump up with lot of cash last year - need to Mae something out of that don't they

Did you leave 98 cents of your sequence of numbers ending in 8?

[iceman]

I think a lot of people would agree with you,and other late comers, to the Heartland success story.However a great number of sharetraders who brought Heartland and the "well positioned"posts at 58 cents ,68 cents,78 cents and 88cents would say it has served them well.If it works,why ban it??????????????? lol.

Apropos Percy but the "newbies" are an impatient lot. LOL.
Winner is right though about you leaving out sequential numbers ending on 8, but he got the wrong end of the sequence. My biggest single purchase was on 30 September 2011, only 3 odd years ago, at 48c.
That makes me very w.. po.....ed indeed with this great company :-)
Patience boys and girls, patience.

[winner69]

After last evenings bit of banter we need to get serious

After setting a strong platform over the last few years Heartland is well positioned to report spectacular profits of $50m for FY15

It is also pleasing to see that they are 'educating' the market as to what realistic multiples a well performing bank with a solid balance sheet should be trading at. Once the market 'gets it' expect a rerating.

So NPAT of $50m + ROE >10% + a rerating = shareprice $1.35 mid 2015

And that's before the acquisitions in the pipeline.

[percy]

My own valuation of $1.25 is made up looking at eps of 10cents,nett dividend of 7 cents.PE 12.5.dividend yield 5.6% net.That is based on 463,266,592 shares on issue.
I expect Heartland to improve their credit rating,and to be rerated by broking houses,who will see they are "putting runs on the board" and achieving what they say they will do,so I see further eps growth.They stated eps for the last quarter were 9.7 and with their stated policy for eps growth, 10cps may be realistic.
Banks have the capacity to pay increasing dividends,so HNZ's fully imputed dividend will be an attraction to investors.
HNZ does not have the over exposure to housing the Australian banks have.They also have no exposure to European wholesale funding issues.
Overseas people look at PEG ratio.This is the PE divided by growth.No allowance is made for dividend,In NZ some companies pay very high dividends,so we should factor them in.PEGD.
So my thinking on HNZ.PE 12.5 growth 10% and 7cents dividend.
therefore 12.5 divided by 17 [growth 10 plus dividend 7] gives us .73 This is well under one,so l think my $1.25 is fair value.
These figures have made no allowance for any further acquisitions by Heartland.

Above posted 12-09-2014
In hindsight my foresight looks pretty good.

[Beagle]

You must be due for Legend status soon mate :) Speaking of legends and cunning as a weasel moves, after trading all day at $1.05 some dummy wanted to let just over 13,000 go at $1.04 in the match process just before 5.00.

What's a bloke to do when he notices that, someone had to accommodate him and help the poor bugger out.. talk about a free hit :)

[h2so4]

Yes there are a few living legends on ST.
I pulled the pin today but I'm not blowing up over 1c.

[h2so4]

Yes there are a few living legends on ST.
I pulled the pin today but I'm not blowing up over 1c.

Ha! That should have been "trigger" on my purchase order.

[percy]

Looking at Heartland's chart this morning, it looks to me as though $1.04 is now the new support level.
Now we look forward to seeing if this is the case,and to finding out what the new resistance level is?????????????????????/.
We certainly find ourselves "well positioned."!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

[winner69]

I agree that the official forecast is now looking very conservative especially after a first quarter of $11m that included significant expenses marketing the HER product.

PS bought more this morning.

Conservative it is not. Only achieving that forecast wold be management failure, failure in not meeting objectives of growth by acquisition, increasing eps and improving ROE

No bonus for them this year

[kizame]

Looking at Heartland's chart this morning, it looks to me as though $1.04 is now the new support level.
Now we look forward to seeing if this is the case,and to finding out what the new resistance level is?????????????????????/.
We certainly find ourselves "well positioned."!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

Forget about the daily chart,look at the weekly chart,it is way more telling.

[percy]

Forget about the daily chart,look at the weekly chart,it is way more telling.

In what way?

[janner]

Looking at Heartland's chart this morning, it looks to me as though $1.04 is now the new support level.
Now we look forward to seeing if this is the case,and to finding out what the new resistance level is?????????????????????/.
We certainly find ourselves "well positioned."!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1


With all the delight you are getting from your " position "...

Kama Sutra ???..

[kizame]

In what way?

It has gapped up, very positive, 3 times since may it has touched the trendline and bounced upward from there.
The ascent lately is only punctuated by 3-4 week short term corrections,it would only take a bit more positive news to really push the price to $1.07 and beyond. $1-07 is the first fibonacci extension from the last upward movement before consolidation.

[percy]

It has gapped up, very positive, 3 times since may it has touched the trendline and bounced upward from there.
The ascent lately is only punctuated by 3-4 week short term corrections,it would only take a bit more positive news to really push the price to $1.07 and beyond. $1-07 is the first fibonacci extension from the last upward movement before consolidation.

Thank you.
How would you say we are positioned?

ps
You can send me a PM if you wish.

[Xerof]

How would you say we are positioned?


khorosho pomeshchayetsya

[h2so4]

I would say we are positioned for growth percy.
I'm not surprised the sp is charting well. Net operating income increased by 16% at the same time non core property assets were sold down.
I believe smart purchases are being made at todays sp price levels.

[kizame]

Thank you.
How would you say we are positioned?

ps
You can send me a PM if you wish.

This has been my favourite trading stock,and recently I stayed out waiting for the correction in the markets that eventually came,my mistake was not realising how resilient the share price would be.I missed an $11,000 dollar trade incl. divi,which I normally wouldn't have.
So now with the prospect of an aquisition which I don't believe is too far away,and the increased earnings for the current year,and the correction out of the way,I really can't afford to be out at the moment.

[percy]

This has been my favourite trading stock,and recently I stayed out waiting for the correction in the markets that eventually came,my mistake was not realising how resilient the share price would be.I missed an $11,000 dollar trade incl. divi,which I normally wouldn't have.
So now with the prospect of an aquisition which I don't believe is too far away,and the increased earnings for the current year,and the correction out of the way,I really can't afford to be out at the moment.

The sp strength surprised me too.I expected it to trade between 96 and 98 cents.I have never sold any,only brought more, so I have been lucky.
Maybe more brokers are like the brokers Snapiti referred to yesterday.
More runs on board,credit upgrade,modest PE,excellent dividend,and a favourable outlook, are making Heartland an easy recommendation, for brokers, to clients who are looking for better returns than those available from bonds.

[tim23]

Kizame - do you charting to decide on your trades?

[kizame]

Kizame - do you charting to decide on your trades?

Yes, first and foremost, I look for long upward paterns on the weekly charts or better still, those about to start on an upward trajectory.
The stocks about to start have breached the down trendline and consolidated + the fundamentals should be very encouraging.
Heartland is an obvious candidate because it is relatively reasonably priced compared to other stocks,and on an organic and aquisitive growth path.

[Beagle]

Apropos Percy but the "newbies" are an impatient lot. LOL.
Winner is right though about you leaving out sequential numbers ending on 8, but he got the wrong end of the sequence. My biggest single purchase was on 30 September 2011, only 3 odd years ago, at 48c.
That makes me very w.. po.....ed indeed with this great company :-)
Patience boys and girls, patience.

Well done mate. Give it another 3-4 years and I reckon we are all good to double our money and you'll have a four bagger from a bank, who would have thought !!!!

[janner]

Well done mate. Give it another 3-4 years and I reckon we are all good to double our money and you'll have a four bagger from a bank, who would have thought !!!!

Is this with or with out using the DRP. ??

Will have doubled mine by $1.30 Using the DRP..

[Beagle]

Is this with or with out using the DRP. ??

Will have doubled mine by $1.30 Using the DRP..

I was thinking without DRP to be honest.

[janner]

I was thinking without DRP to be honest.

With or with out DRP.. A very good investment .. Even today !!..

Ooops... Can this be construed as ramping ???

My answer to that.. DYOR :-))

[percy]

Resignation of Chief Risk Officer
12:13pm, 24 Oct 2014 | OFFICE
NZX Release

24 October 2014

Resignation of Chief Risk Officer

Heartland New Zealand Limited (NZX: HNZ) advises that Chief Risk Officer (CRO) Mark Mountcastle has resigned but will remain with Heartland until 30 November 2014.

Mark Mountcastle has been CRO at Heartland since July 2010. Jeff Greenslade, Heartland’s Chief Executive Officer, said that during his time at Heartland Mark has made a significant contribution and has created a strong risk culture within the organisation.

Heartland has commenced a recruitment process for a new Chief Risk Officer and expects to announce a successor to Mr Mountcastle shortly. In the meantime, Chief Financial Officer, Simon Owen, has been appointed Acting Chief Risk Officer.

-Ends-

For additional information contact:

Jeff Greenslade
Chief Executive Officer
Heartland New Zealand Limited
DDI 09 927 9149
M 021 563 593

Mark Mountcasle is only leaving at the end of November 14 (5 weeks away), and HNZ seems comfortable with a temporary fix, the CFO will will be the Acting Chief Risk Officer.

Sorry to see Mark go,but let's welcome Richard.
Richard Lorraway comes to the position with 25 years banking experience,lately with Kiwi Bank.

[percy]

khorosho pomeshchayetsya

Think you are right ??????

[Beagle]

Looks like the market has given a resounding endorsement of Richard Lorraway's credentials. Crikey my $1.10 - $1.20 by ASM time next year is starting to look very conservative :ohmy:

[winner69]

Looks like the market has given a resounding endorsement of Richard Lorraway's credentials. Crikey my $1.10 - $1.20 by ASM time next year is starting to look very conservative :ohmy:

Don't think anything to do with that Richard guy .....more so the market slowly coming around to what you and me have been saying.

Going to be a bit embarrassing for Jeff when he suddenly pulls a few extra million out of the hat eh. Going to be hard to stick to $42m when first half is $22m/$23m - a sign they not exactly on top of where things are going?

C'mon $49m/$50m earnings this year. Shareprice next ASM will be prejudging FY16 so over $1.40 I reckon

[percy]

Don't think anything to do with that Richard guy .....more so the market slowly coming around to what you and me have been saying.

Going to be a bit embarrassing for Jeff when he suddenly pulls a few extra million out of the hat eh. Going to be hard to stick to $42m when first half is $22m/$23m - a sign they not exactly on top of where things are going?

C'mon $49m/$50m earnings this year. Shareprice next ASM will be prejudging FY16 so over $1.40 I reckon

Looks as though if you are not already,it is time to make sure you are well positioned.
I am.!! lol.

[Beagle]

Don't think anything to do with that Richard guy .....more so the market slowly coming around to what you and me have been saying.

Going to be a bit embarrassing for Jeff when he suddenly pulls a few extra million out of the hat eh. Going to be hard to stick to $42m when first half is $22m/$23m - a sign they not exactly on top of where things are going?

C'mon $49m/$50m earnings this year. Shareprice next ASM will be prejudging FY16 so over $1.40 I reckon

Ssssshhh, I haven't finished buying yet.


Looks as though if you are not already,it is time to make sure you are well positioned.
I am.!! lol.
You most certainly are my friend.

[winner69]

Ssssshhh, I haven't finished buying yet.


You most certainly are my friend.

Don't be a pussy cat .... just buy what you want now .... while on special!!!!!!!!!!!

[winner69]

Don't be a pussy cat .... just buy what you want now .... while on special!!!!!!!!!!!

Hope you not chasing the price up hoping hoping hoping for that $1.05 or $1.06

Might need to pay $1.10 tomorrow

[Beagle]

Don't be a pussy cat .... just buy what you want now .... while on special!!!!!!!!!!!

That's the $64,000 question isn't it. Sit back and accumulate like a stealthy cat when the time is right or rush in like a hungry beagle and scoff as much as you can.
I had paralysis by analysis today :)

[Ginger_steps_]

This thread is looking a hell of a lot like the SUM thread before the SP took a turn for the worst. Unbeatable today, completely overvalued "what were we thinking" tomorrow....

[percy]

This thread is looking a hell of a lot like the SUM thread before the SP took a turn for the worst. Unbeatable today, completely overvalued "what were we thinking" tomorrow....

Fair comment.
Yes when things look to be too good to be true,caution is required.
Good research can save making mistakes,so we all should do our own research.

[h2so4]

This thread is looking a hell of a lot like the SUM thread before the SP took a turn for the worst. Unbeatable today, completely overvalued "what were we thinking" tomorrow....

I haven't read the SUM thread but some more straight talkers would be good especially at board level.

[winner69]

Fair comment.
Yes when things look to be too good to be true,caution is required.
Good research can save making mistakes,so we all should do our own research.

Good advice Percy

We need to calm down and assume the market is a bit exuberant at the moment and expect the share to drift back to 98/99, beings more reasonable price in line with company guidance.

If we don't calm down and takea deep breathe w could be disappointed

[Beagle]

This thread is looking a hell of a lot like the SUM thread before the SP took a turn for the worst. Unbeatable today, completely overvalued "what were we thinking" tomorrow....
One trading on a PE of over 30 with EPS contraction and the other on a forward PE of about 11 and showing strong growth. Yeah great analogy.
But while we're looking at the other side of the coin so to speak lets not forget there's the 10% Sentinel stake that's going on to the market in April and just over one third of the rural lending book is in the dairy sector which could be in for a prolonged and severe contraction.

[Deej5]

I've been more than happy to hold for 18 months now for such a good dividend.

[Beagle]

I've been more than happy to hold for 18 months now for such a good dividend.

Yep, putting our happy hats on again. Since their stated objective is to improve return on equity what are they going to do with the increased EPS most especially given they have a DRP still in place. Pay it out as fully imputed divvy's !!

[Beagle]

Further thoughts....I think $48m is a reasonable target that should be achieveable, (without new acqusitions) and on 466.946m shares that gives us EPS of 10.28 cps this year for a 14% growth in EPS based on weighted average shares on issue last year and EPS of 9.0.

10.28 cents eps and a PE of 12 gives us $1.23. Call it $1.20 to be a bit conservative. Upside from there if there's an EPS accretive acquisition(s).

I reckon divvy's this year of 7 cps fully imputed up from 6 cps last year and in line with EPS growth gives (7/0.72) so gross divvy's of 9.72 cents so on $1.06 this morning that gives a gross divvy yeild for 2015 of 9.17%.

[Cricketfan]

One trading on a PE of over 30 with EPS contraction and the other on a forward PE of about 11 and showing strong growth. Yeah great analogy.


Yes but what happened to SUM after April when you wrote this post (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?5009-Summerset-Group-IPO&p=472386&viewfull=1#post472386) and things were all looking good? I guess what Ginger_steps_ was asking or pointing out was whether the same could happen here?

[Billy Boy]

Good discussion going here... Making me re-think my thinking.
Bought heaps @ 86c, mainly on Birdmans advice.( think it's Birdman.. man with the cat pic.)
I not worrying too much about the fundies at this stage coz it's a BANK (with a difference sure),
but it's what and how they are involved.
Dairy will not drop off to much as NZ farmers are more efficient than northern hem farmers.
And not all have to sell to Fonteria (SML will play a bigger part looking ahead).
By 2015 meat exports to China will be duty free under the FTG. Chinese eat and like mutton.
All food for thought
BB

[Ginger_steps_]

Yes but what happened to SUM after April when you wrote this post (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?5009-Summerset-Group-IPO&p=472386&viewfull=1#post472386) and things were all looking good? I guess what Ginger_steps_ was asking or pointing out was whether the same could happen here?
More or less. I like heartland but had to sell recently for a house deposit. Happy to lock in some decent gains. I was just merely pointing out how similar the comments are here making heartland out to be a sure thing.....

[Beagle]

More or less. I like heartland but had to sell recently for a house deposit. Happy to lock in some decent gains. I was just merely pointing out how similar the comments are here making heartland out to be a sure thing.....

Nothing is a sure thing and what we have seen with SUM is that when a stock is priced for perfection on a PE of 30+ and doesn't deliver it, its gets belted and belted pretty hard at that. Doesn't help that directors shot their own credibility to bits by wild west insider trading governance policies that happened AFTER I made that post. (See subsequent posts in SUM thread where I make it clear Norah Barlow and her fellow directors made fools of themselves).
On the other hand here we have a stock in a completely different sector trading on less than 12 times historical EPS at present, hardly priced for perfection and trading on lower PE's that regional comparative banks in Australia and has more predicable earnings so hardly a relevant comparison. Besides that there's always the prospect of a decent fully imputed dividend yield with HNZ whereas the unimputed divvy's SUM pay are so low as to be almost inconsequential. All I'm suggesting is barring a huge exogenous shock to the market of some sort or other its highly likely we'll see a reasonable level of SP appreciation to go with our circa 9% divvy yield this year.

[BlackPeter]

Agreed, HNZ is a well run company. However - its not the only show in town, and I am not quite sure, whether it is (looking at risk vs reward) still a better proposition than any of the bigger banks. Just comparing:

ANZ: (really) big international bank with proven capability to survive major market crash's
HNZ: still a quite minor and only national player, focussing on lots of previous finance company business (and we know, how that went during the recent GFC); certainly higher risk stuff than ANZ.

forward P/E: HNZ 11.9 (tendency rising), ANZ 12.5 (and currently in a downtrend - i.e. further falling) - forward PE based on Reuter or FT predictions;

analysts 12 month target: HNZ 96 ... 101, with a 97 cts median (i.e. even the most optimistic analysts predict a SP drop over the next 12 months), ANZ 3315 ... 4260, median 3855 (i.e. majority of analysts predict a rise over the next 12 months). Predictions lifted off FT and for ANZ translated from AUD into NZD.

So - if the next 12 months run really smooth (rockstar economy?), than maybe HNZ might come out as equal or even winning. However if we have just minor hiccups like e.g. the HER business not taking off as hoped for, or if the rural sector developing a flu, or if something else negative happens, than I am not sure, whether people on this thread are in a year still as upbeat as they are today.

Discl: Used to hold ANZ as well as HNZ (at some stage), currently holding none of them. DYOR;

[Beagle]

Based on the mid point of HNZ's own forecast range we get $43.5m on 466m shares or 9.33 cps so at $1.05 they're on a forward PE of 11.25. I think with all due respect BP the data you've used is clearly flawed and further, those that know the company well know the official forecast is very conservative. Also as I am sure you are aware dividends from ANZ carry no N.Z. imputation credits whereas HNZ ones carry full credits which makes a substantial difference to one's net returns over time. The other issue you discuss regarding potential vulnerability in the possible event of a major exogenous shock like a GFC Mk2 ignores the fact that the various building society's and finance company's that now are comprised within the HNZ parent company successfully traded right through the GFC we've just had. Finally from a parochial perspective I have a very strong preference towards backing a home grown Kiwi bank than supporting an Australian one more especially so when I reflect upon all the fees and interest the so called Bank Of New Zealand have gouged out of me over the years. Happy holder :)

[Beagle]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/42e10c5f/nz-banks-well-placed-to-weather-downturn-rbnz-says.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NZ+banks+well-placed+to+weather+downturn+RBNZ+says&utm_content=NZ+banks+well-placed+to+weather+downturn+RBNZ+says+CID_0ea0711fe 1ae5ec139d768c32f445ef4&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle42e10c5fnz-banks-well-placed-to-weather-downturn-rbnz-sayshtml

N.Z. Banks well placed to weather a potential downturn according to Reserve Bank analysis.

[percy]

Australian banks face a few challenges Heartland don't;
Slow down in mining sector.
Slow down in manufacturing sector.
Slow down in the retail sector.
Slow down in real estate housing market.
Possible a tightening of European wholesale funding.
Possible Australian Reserve Bank requiring Australian banks to have a much greater capital base.

[Beagle]

A client of mine financed a motor vehicle with Marac in the last financial year and Marac insisted on a 40% deposit which means Johnny has a lot of skin in the game when it comes to his vested interest that he keeps up with the payments...this is a far cry from some of the reckless zero deposit lending that some far less reputable finance companies were doing at the height of the GFC.
That sort of prudent finance company lending and a substantial 15% capital adequacy ratio, (far higher than the Aussie banks) means the risk profile of HNZ is not materially different to the Aussie banks and perhaps could even be better !!

[Snoopy]

Also as I am sure you are aware dividends from ANZ carry no N.Z. imputation credits whereas HNZ ones carry full credits


Not true. ANZ bank has had New Zealand imputation credits on dividends for NZ shareholders available for a couple of years now. Granted they are not nearly enough to call the dividend 'fully imputed' in NZ. So Heartland have the edge in having more imputataion credits proportionately.



The other issue you discuss regarding potential vulnerability in the possible event of a major exogenous shock like a GFC Mk2 ignores the fact that the various building society's and finance company's that now are comprised within the HNZ parent company successfully traded right through the GFC we've just had.


Some here it seems have short memories. Heartland only exists because PGC shareholders, back when PGC was resapectable, put up the capital to create it. The purpose for Heartaland's erxistance was to rescue the likes of Marac, a part of PGC that was in dire financial straits as a result of the GFC. The other smaller financial institutions that joined in certainly had their own GFC related prolems at the time. Far from navigating through the GFC successfully, Heartland is best described as a bailout in itself.

Of course all of this is historical and doesn't (or shouldn't) affect the prospects of Heartland going forwards. But those who forget history sometimes end up repeating it.

SNOOPY

[Harvey Specter]

A client of mine financed a motor vehicle with Marac in the last financial year and Marac insisted on a 40% deposit which means Johnny has a lot of skin in the game when it comes to his vested interest that he keeps up with the payments...this is a far cry from some of the reckless zero deposit lending that some far less reputable finance companies were doing at the height of the GFC.My brother got 15% deposit (conveniently the same as GST rate) at 1% on his last car purchase.

[Beagle]

Yep, okay Snoopy my mistake, last time I looked at it ANZ divvy's weren't imputed, latest divvy carried 12 cents imputation of a 95 cent dividend, so well under half the level of the full imputation credits HNZ attach to their divvy's. Regardless of your view on history I stand by my comment that the capital adequacy of HNZ is significantly superior to the Aussie banks and obviously the Reserve bank thinks they're in good shape. As Percy mentioned the Aussie banks carry their own unique risks.

[winner69]

Forget about the daily chart,look at the weekly chart,it is way more telling.

I prefer the monthly chart

Mr Taleb says the more often you look at stock prices the greater number of disappointments you will have. (punters feel the pain when the price falls more than glee when the price rises)

HNZ is a good case in point - So forget about the shareprice on a day to day basis but if you need to just have a peek at the end of each month

Over the last 30 months you would have felt the 'pain' of a falling shareprice only 7 times - and 4 of those followed a month of exceptional gains (happiness) the month before so the pain wasn't too bad.

So really last 30 months only 3 instances of 'pain' ..... on a daily basis there would have been many days of 'pain' and in some cases even anguish

Heading to $1.40 in 12 months isn't it.

[percy]

Thanks for the chart Winner69.
Looks as though we are "well positioned." lol.

[kizame]

I prefer the monthly chart

Mr Taleb says the more often you look at stock prices the greater number of disappointments you will have. (punters feel the pain when the price falls more than glee when the price rises)

HNZ is a good case in point - So forget about the shareprice on a day to day basis but if you need to just have a peek at the end of each month

Over the last 30 months you would have felt the 'pain' of a falling shareprice only 7 times - and 4 of those followed a month of exceptional gains (happiness) the month before so the pain wasn't too bad.

So really last 30 months only 3 instances of 'pain' ..... on a daily basis there would have been many days of 'pain' and in some cases even anguish

Heading to $1.40 in 12 months isn't it.

Yep thats a great chart,and you are right,less pain,but providing you check back on the weekly to make it quicker to see the inevitable (even if it's a year or two away)change in trend. Long term for direction,short term for timing.

I don't think it will be a year before 1.40 is achieved.Just my opinion.

[h2so4]

I don't think it will be a year before 1.40 is achieved.Just my opinion.

Awwww he'll!

[winner69]

Awwww he'll!

probably meaning it wont be $1.40 in a years time

[Beagle]

Very pretty graph W69, I like it a lot. The trend is our friend :)

[h2so4]

probably meaning it wont be $1.40 in a years time

Awwww hell! Thanks anyway winner.

[winner69]

Very pretty graph W69, I like it a lot. The trend is our friend :)

But don't forget what kizame says ......the trend will change direction one day

Maybe when there is.a massive default in loans when property prices collapse and farmers start going broke and HNZ find out that capital adequacy ratios weren't that good after all

[Beagle]

But don't forget what kizame says ......the trend will change direction one day

Maybe when there is.a massive default in loans when property prices collapse and farmers start going broke and HNZ find out that capital adequacy ratios weren't that good after all

Yep one day but I believe that day lies a very long way off. I'll use a nice loose 180 day moving average and I'll be very surprised if we see it break down through that any year soon :)

[percy]

Being the bank with the lowest exposure to property, Heartland would not be affected as much by property market collapse as other banks,who are over committed to this sector.
I note in this morning's "The Press" article headed "Fonterra sinking millions into south";The dairy giant has set aside $150m for three new plants at its Edendale site in Southland and $72m to double mozzarella production at its Clandeboye site." "This comes after $500m was invested at its new dairy site in Darfield"."The outlook for arable,sheep and beef farming also looks positive,as does fruit exports.
So I don't see farmers going broke either.
Therefore , there is no reason to think the uptrend will change for a very long time,and HNZ's strong capital adequacy,and modest ratios will help it to be further upgraded, and able to react quickly to any further acquisition opportunities.
I may end up "holding forever."

[winner69]

When HNZ (or any bank) start talking about 13% ROE I sometimes go back to my old old fashioned values and think "hey 20% pretax return forever it has to be too good to be true"

Mr Ross was promising those sort of returns, too good to be true as some found out.

Relative to the traditional old fashioned way of doing things banks, inc HNZ, taking on too much risk and leverage these days. Just as well these days are different eh, and the older generation are just well say old fashioned.

[Beagle]

Isn't ANZ at about 8% capital "adequacy" if you can call it that ? Not sure you can generalise and say HNZ taking on too much risk. 15% capital adequacy is very very good by international standards.
Its not like they're taking on 200:1 bets on the international derivatives markets like Lehman was, far from it.

[percy]

When HNZ (or any bank) start talking about 13% ROE I sometimes go back to my old old fashioned values and think "hey 20% pretax return forever it has to be too good to be true"

Mr Ross was promising those sort of returns, too good to be true as some found out.

Relative to the traditional old fashioned way of doing things banks, inc HNZ, taking on too much risk and leverage these days. Just as well these days are different eh, and the older generation are just well say old fashioned.

The boards of Heartland took a lot of time and care laying the foundations for Heartland Bank.
They have taken on the "issues" of property loans.They have set targets which they have achieved.They have brought in people with special banking experience and skills.They are concentrating on profitable "niche" markets,where there is little or no competition from the major banks.
It is us on sharetrader who have set "too good to be true" projections.
From memory it is on pages 18 and 19 of the agm presentation where compare their ratios with other banks.Reading this one can see what sort of ratios Heartland want to achieve.They are on track,and with each "run on the board" we are seeing the market rerate Heartland.
Mr.Ross.Ran a Ponzi scheme.Heartland Bank have rating agencies and the Reserve Bank requirements they must adhere to.They are the only listed company [I think] that is answerable to the Reserve Bank.Maybe that makes them the safest listed company in NZ to invest in?

[winner69]

The boards of Heartland took a lot of time and care laying the foundations for Heartland Bank.
They have taken on the "issues" of property loans.They have set targets which they have achieved.They have brought in people with special banking experience and skills.They are concentrating on profitable "niche" markets,where there is little or no competition from the major banks.
It is us on sharetrader who have set "too good to be true" projections.

Don't get in tiz now Percy, you letting your emotional attachment to HNZ come outand jumping to conclusions

Read carefully, all I was saying that relative to the traditional old fashioned ways banks, inc HNZ, are taking more risks and are more leveraged than before.

Nothing more or nothing less. Just the way things are done these days, for good or worse nobody knows(yet)

[percy]

Don't get in tiz now Percy, you letting your emotional attachment to HNZ come outand jumping to conclusions

Read carefully, all I was saying that relative to the traditional old fashioned ways banks, inc HNZ, are taking more risks and are more leveraged than before.

Nothing more or nothing less. Just the way things are done these days, for good or worse nobody knows(yet)

As I added to my previous post Heartland by the fact they are answerable to The Reserve Bank may make them NZ's safest listed company to invest in.
I would think The Reserve Bank does not encourage "more risks,or more leverage" today.If anything I would think The Reserve Bank discourages it.

[BlackPeter]

The boards of Heartland took a lot of time and care laying the foundations for Heartland Bank.
They have taken on the "issues" of property loans.They have set targets which they have achieved.They have brought in people with special banking experience and skills.They are concentrating on profitable "niche" markets,where there is little or no competition from the major banks.
It is us on sharetrader who have set "too good to be true" projections.

Have to agree. The company promises just another reasonable year and the financial analysts seem to generally agree with the companies predictions. Nice little earner, but nothing outrageous.

Its just some "bulls" around this thread who might create false expectations (particularly for Newbies) ...

The shares behind most (or all? - just a question of time) of the highly hyped sharetrader threads have a tendency to first rocket up and than crash down again. Just have a look at XRO, RAK, PEB, SUM, GEN, ... (in no particular order). Even the beloved RYM is now cheaper than it used to be a year ago.

Some of the above mentioned shares represent really good companies and nothing wrong in buying them at the right price (and I see HNZ as one of these companies). It is just that too much hype always drives the SP up a bit too high ... and as we all know: "what goes up, must come down again".

Discl: used to hold most of the above shares at some stage ... and sold some of them with a nice profit and others with a not so nice loss.

[Beagle]

Have to agree. The company promises just another reasonable year and the financial analysts seem to generally agree with the companies predictions. Nice little earner, but nothing outrageous.

Its just some "bulls" around this thread who might create false expectations (particularly for Newbies) ...

The shares behind most (or all? - just a question of time) of the highly hyped sharetrader threads have a tendency to first rocket up and than crash down again. Just have a look at XRO, RAK, PEB, SUM, GEN, ... (in no particular order). Even the beloved RYM is now cheaper than it used to be a year ago.

Some of the above mentioned shares represent really good companies and nothing wrong in buying them at the right price (and I see HNZ as one of these companies). It is just that too much hype always drives the SP up a bit too high ... and as we all know: "what goes up, must come down again".

Discl: used to hold most of the above shares at some stage ... and sold some of them with a nice profit and others with a not so nice loss.

Fair comment to some extent mate but the simple use of a filter that I won't buy a stock on a forward PE of more than 20 or on no PE would save a lot of people a lot of grief.
Further, based on the mid point of the company's own forecast we are talking about a forward PE of only 11.25, hardly what anyone could call hyped-up.

[winner69]

Have to agree. The company promises just another reasonable year and the financial analysts seem to generally agree with the companies predictions. Nice little earner, but nothing outrageous.

Its just some "bulls" around this thread who might create false expectations (particularly for Newbies) ...

.

Oh come on now BP

I would say that the 'bulls' on this thread have done better research and have come up with more "realistic expectations" than your beloved 'financial analysts' (assuming you sort of mean consensus forecasts)

These "bulls" are not setting "false expectation". The expectations are all based on listening carefully to what the company says and making reasonable assumptions as to where things will end up for the year. That is $49m to $50m

At least these "bulls" aren't under the thumb of the company like the "financial analysts" are

[Beagle]

Interesting debate. I wonder how many, (if any), broker analysts have reviewed their valuation models for the fact that the company made $11m in the first quarter as announced at the ASM ?

[BlackPeter]

Oh come on now BP

I would say that the 'bulls' on this thread have done better research and have come up with more "realistic expectations" than your beloved 'financial analysts' (assuming you sort of mean consensus forecasts)

These "bulls" are not setting "false expectation". The expectations are all based on listening carefully to what the company says and making reasonable assumptions as to where things will end up for the year. That is $49m to $50m

At least these "bulls" aren't under the thumb of the company like the "financial analysts" are

Hi winner,

no need to start a war ... I am (at current) holding no shares in HNZ and have neither an interest in talking the shares up nor down ....

As said before - I think HNZ is a good company and I have to agree with Roger that the forward PE looks still quite good (for a bank, and compared with many other shares currently around). Might be as well sustainable, i.e. nothing wrong in buying their shares, and delivering likely as well long term a better return than their fixed rate bonds ...

I was just reacting to the graph and the derived statements around "heading towards $1.40". Linear extrapolation is in my experience not always the best way to model future share growth;).

However - the market is free to do whatever it want's, and (at least short term) it rarely reacts rational. So - yes, the SP might be in a year around $1.40, but then, it might as well be around where it is today. I don't know where the SP peak will be, but I am sure, there will be one ... and I don't think it will take decades (though it might be years) until we reach it.

[winner69]

Interesting debate. I wonder how many, (if any), broker analysts have reviewed their valuation models for the fact that the company made $11m in the first quarter as announced at the ASM ?

If they haven't one needs to wonder why

[dingoNZ]

If they haven't one needs to wonder why


Its probably not on the height of the priority for analysts to be honest, they will likely cover it in due course

[winner69]

BlackPete - no war

Maybe I just misunderstood what you were getting at

However your comments are very interesting, esp as it seems that you see HNZ has a good company and a good earner but maybe not that spectacular. A feeling that is reinforced by what you see financial analysts valuing HNZ at. (Maybe not buts that how I read your posts and do chastise me if completely wrong)

If correct than HNZ has not done its job properly in itself to analysts and the market in general. My feeling is that they don't really want to. That's disappointing.

And by the way BP the $1.40 is not just a continuation of that line on the chart - it's the same $1.40 I have mentioned before. It's based on npat of $49m in FY15 (using a strong financial analysis approach) and applying some expectations for how the market could value HNZ in November 2015.

It'll get there, I'm sure of that.

Enjoy your challenging posts

[Beagle]

Suppose we speculate and suggest HNZ is very conservative with their forecast profit and they do make $49m for 2015. So we get $49m over say 470m shares with shares issued under DRP, (currently just under 467m shares = EPS 10.42 cps and seeing as its never traded on a PE above 12 lets stick with that which gives us $1.25 by next year's ASM, (12 x .1042). If we take the mid point of the official forecast $43.5 / 470m = 9.25 cps and the same PE we get $1.11.
I think they'll need an EPS accretive acquisition, (which certainly is not out of the question), to get to $1.40. On top of that there's about 7 cps fully imputed dividends to look forward too.
In the unlikely event that the SP stays where it currently is, (very unlikely in my opinion given the growth of the company), shareholders get about a 9% gross divvy yield which is hardly what you'd call a tragic outcome.

[winner69]

Suppose we speculate and suggest HNZ is very conservative with their forecast profit and they do make $49m for 2015. So we get $49m over say 470m shares with shares issued under DRP, (currently just under 467m shares = EPS 10.42 cps and seeing as its never traded on a PE above 12 lets stick with that which gives us $1.25 by next year's ASM, (12 x .1042). If we take the mid point of the official forecast $43.5 / 470m = 9.25 cps and the same PE we get $1.11.
I think they'll need an EPS accretive acquisition, (which certainly is not out of the question), to get to $1.40. On top of that there's about 7 cps fully imputed dividends to look forward too.
In the unlikely event that the SP stays where it currently is, (very unlikely in my opinion given the growth of the company), shareholders get about a 9% gross divvy yield which is hardly what you'd call a tragic outcome.

But come next years ASM booze up the market will be using FY16 guidance/expectations won't they?

So 10.42 plus say 10% is 11.5 cents times your 12 is $1.32 plus the eps accretive acquisition is at least $1.40

[winner69]

Westpac s Gail Kelly resigned yesterday ....maybe HNZ should get her a a director as Percy suggested higher day

Gail was pretty well paid so had a look at Jeffs remuneration

A 16% increase last year not to be coughed at, well done Jeff

No wonder the gap between the well off and the workers is increasing ....workers maybe got 3% increase if they were lucky.

[Beagle]

But come next years ASM booze up the market will be using FY16 guidance/expectations won't they?

So 10.42 plus say 10% is 11.5 cents times your 12 is $1.32 plus the eps accretive acquisition is at least $1.40

Yes I believe the market is forward looking so much will depend upon official 2016 guidance. If we see circa $50m this year for 10.4 cps and they're guiding 12 cents eps for 2016 which whilst a speculative thought at this stage I believe its quite possible then they better have even more good wine on hand next year at the ASM 12 x 12 = :D :D

[Wolf]

I was looking into Heartland and was hoping someone more experienced could help me understand Heartlands 2015 Forecast.
I'm a beginner at reading annual reports and am thoroughly lost.


NPAT forecast of $42m - $45m
• Growth in Receivables in 2015

– Consumer: 5 - 10% (1st Quarter 2015 +$16m, 2% annualised 10%)
– Business: some modest growth (1st Quarter 2015 +$25m, 4% annualised 15%)
– Rural: some modest growth (1st Quarter 2015 +$26m, 6% annualised 26%)
– HER: turned the corner (1st Quarter 2015 +$16m, 2% annualised 9% or excluding fx gains -$2m; New Zealand +$1m, Australian -$3m)
– Retail: run off of residential mortgages continues in line with strategy
– Property: realisations of $10m - $20m (1st Quarter 2015 -$4m, -9% annualised -36%)

• NOI improvement through product switching and the last of lower COF filtering through

1. What are receivables and Is this in relation to segment cash flow statement or segment income statement?

2. For consumer would the +25m, 2% growth be for the first quarter and 10% the annual compounded growth if this continued throughout the other quarters?

3. I couldn't find HER in the segment analysis for 2014, is this coming into effect 2015 or already included somewhere?

4. For Retail does this mean that low margin mortgages will decrease, increasing margins in line with strategy?
I find this odd as in the segment analysis retail and consumer are included together.

5. I don't understand the property realizations. Will this be a loss or gain on the income statement?

6. What does "lower COF filtering through" mean?

I'll leave it at that for now, i'm trying to get a better understanding of the company and what its worth.
Stoked with their progress so far and the guidance does seem extremely conservative to me considering growth and the assumption of benign impairments, which i assume means favorable/low impairments?

Cheers guys.

[winner69]

Wolf

Think of Receivables (in the accounts as Finance Receivables) as their loan book, ie how much they have lent out.

That slide is not easy to read. To get the gist add first growth values quoted - $16m + $25m + $26m + $16m which gives increase in receivables in Q1 of $83m. Annualised this and you get $332m. You could play around with the full %ages they give but it'll come to about this)

Now HNZ make a Net Interest Margin on these receivables. Last year this was 4.4% so one would expect that the growth in receivables would bring in ~$15m extra net interest income (part of NOI line in. Their accounts)

The other growth things they mention I take it as status quo with no great net impact on profit. Understand the major things first.

Re HER, in most presentations etc the numbers are included under Consumer.

The COF bit is about getting cheaper money because they are now a bank. That has settled down to a ongoing normal sort of level. I do read that sentence as possible margin improvement, ie the 4.4% will get better.

The other thing you should look at is the expense base. They are doing heaps more with only a little more - income going up faster than expenses = more profit.

Put all that together and you get to that $50m Roger and I go on about.

Now you totally confused eh. Look at their simplified profit statement in that presentation and think it through taking into account the above comments

[Wolf]

Thanks Winner for the explanations, that helped a lot.

I have Net interest Margin a bit higher based of that.
FY 2014 - $122,155/$2,607,393 = 4.68%

My attempt at a Net Profit forecast
6473

What assumptions do you use to arrive at $50m?
I'm not to sure on my NOI margin assumption.
I suppose Sales and Admin expenses as a % may continue to decrease.

How do you deal with/ allow for Impaired asset expense and decrease in fair value?

[winner69]

Wolf - I took the interest margin of 4.44%‰ from the preso with full year results

Impressive looking chart eh. All they have recently said and shown in presentations suggest it going to get better, although the increase probably wont be as great as the last few years

But even so just another 0.1% point increase is another $3m in NOI

[Beagle]

Wasn't net interest margin in the last quarter of 2014 very close to 5% as they start to roll out their HER product ? See Reserve bank report some time back on this thread on interest margins between the banks. This is one of the key issues in regard to understanding the future profitability of this company.

[forest]

5. I don't understand the property realizations. Will this be a loss or gain on the income statement?

Wolf, at the AGM this was briefly mentioned, impairments for the properties has been accounted for in previous periods.

However until all properties are sold we do not know if more impairments need to be accounted for or if some previous impairments need to be reversed.

But from what I understand some minor reversing is more likely with the increases in property values at present.

[winner69]

Wasn't net interest margin in the last quarter of 2014 very close to 5% as they start to roll out their HER product ? See Reserve bank report some time back on this thread on interest margins between the banks. This is one of the key issues in regard to understanding the future profitability of this company.

You onto it mate. Margin sure to rise in FY15 and each 0.1% point increase is about ~$3m

Yes - a key issue is interest margins

[Wolf]

Thanks Forest, Winner and Roger.

Forest what do you mean by "minor reversing"

Still got a lot more to learn and look at.
Sold out after div at $1 as it made up pretty much my whole portfolio lol and i was worried about macro conditions/ saw other opportunities.
Now back in at a higher price :t_down:

Heres that article i think. http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/tables/g5/

[forest]

Thanks Forest, Winner and Roger.

Forest what do you mean by "minor reversing"

Still got a lot more to learn and look at.
Sold out after div at $1 as it made up pretty much my whole portfolio lol and i was worried about macro conditions/ saw other opportunities.
Now back in at a higher price :t_down:

Heres that article i think. http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/tables/g5/

Wolf page 19 2014 annual report, profit for 2014 $36,039,000 but this was after an impaired expense of $5,895,000.(note 12)
As I understand it this impaired expense is partly an estimate of the likely loss HNZ will make on their over due loans.

If property prices go up then the estimated loses on those loans might be less, in which case the impairment asset expense in the 2014 year was to high.
If this is the case (and we will only know that when the properties are sold) the difference will add a little to the profit in future year(s).
And from the AGM I had the impression this is more likely than not.

[Wolf]

Thanks heaps forest, i understand that now.

[Beagle]

Topped up some more at $1.06. Absolutely bereft of any better safe idea's so do more of the obvious :)

[Beagle]

Huge volume in this puppy yesterday and today. People seem to be positioning themselves for good things from this company in 2015.

[winner69]

Huge volume in this puppy yesterday and today. People seem to be positioning themselves for good things from this company in 2015.

Yep, I noticed your big trade yesterday.

Good buying though ...$1.40 this time next year.

[Beagle]

Yep, I noticed your big trade yesterday.

Good buying though ...$1.40 this time next year.

"Roger" that. You could say that we are well positioned if Percy didn't own the copyright on that :D

[winner69]

"Roger" that. You could say that we are well positioned if Percy didn't own the copyright on that :D

No no - INCREDIBLY WELL POSITIONED

One day the market will wake up, but I still wonder why HNZ themselves don't 'promote' themselves better to get the shareprice up a bit. Maybe something to do with the big acquisition on the horizon?

[Beagle]

No no - INCREDIBLY WELL POSITIONED

One day the market will wake up, but I still wonder why HNZ themselves don't 'promote' themselves better to get the shareprice up a bit. Maybe something to do with the big acquisition on the horizon?

Huge volume suggests something is "in the wind". Buyers are cleaning out sellers at $1.08 now. Insto's having a bloody good sort out on where GMT should be priced after the Viaduct fiasco too.

[winner69]

Huge volume suggests something is "in the wind". Buyers are cleaning out sellers at $1.08 now.


Wonder what it s?

Hope it is eps accretive and helps ROE

[Beagle]

Looking very thin on the offer side now. I don't fancy my chances of getting more at $1.07.

[winner69]

Looking very thin on the offer side now. I don't fancy my chances of getting more at $1.07.

Don't get greedy now

Or you saving up to put into that IPO where Norah is chairperson

[percy]

No no - INCREDIBLY WELL POSITIONED

One day the market will wake up, but I still wonder why HNZ themselves don't 'promote' themselves better to get the shareprice up a bit. Maybe something to do with the big acquisition on the horizon?

Whoopiedoo.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The market has reacted to Roger's renewed buying, and Winner69's endorsement.!!!
Wonder if the market is reacting to MTF's announcement this morning?
Noodles has posted it on NZDX thread Mtfhc.

[Joshuatree]

[QUOTE=winner69;517442]No no - INCREDIBLY WELL POSITIONED

"One day the market will wake up,"

Mkt may need CPR, Heartland gets the tick and we are getting a kick; out of,it ,and my position is SouthWest with a following Win:)

[Beagle]

Don't get greedy now

Or you saving up to put into that IPO where Norah is chairperson

LOL, not unless they're free.
Analysts look like they're coming round to our way of thinking and ignoring "official" guidance.
http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/analyst?symbol=HNZ.NZ
Consensus view is Hold. Consensus EPS for 2015 is 9.95 cps not the 9.3 cps which is the mid point of official guidance.
9.95 cps x approx 470m shares on issue after dividend reinvestment during year = ~ $47m 2015 profit.
Analysts not as silly as someone on here recently made them out to be.
9.95 cents pr share x a pE of 12 = $1.20 minimum +++++++ acqusitions.

PS I wonder what the fully imputed divvy will be for the year seeing as they're trying to improve ROE and earning circa 10 cps. Maybe 8 cps fully imputed =11.11 cents gross so maybe still on a divvy yield of circa 10% gross even at $1.08...opps, sorry, $1.09 now :)

[Beagle]

Topped up some more at $1.06. Absolutely bereft of any better safe idea's so do more of the obvious :)

Haven't even settled on that purchase yet and $1.10 already. Market starting to wake up that this is a money making machine for twenty fifteen...

[winner69]

Haven't even settled on that purchase yet and $1.10 already. Market starting to wake up that this is a money making machine for twenty fifteen...

I was tempted to buy a few at market to get the price up to 110 ..... somebody needed to give it a boost and once into blue sky territory you'll be able to see the rocket way up ion the sky

I prepared to spend a few bob to cause that momentum .... and make heaps

Hopefully others will do it for me, have far too many already.

[vin]

Bought in at $1.06, considering jumping in again.. hmmm

[winner69]

Hope it doesn't close at 111 ..... 111 is Nelson and brings bad luck to cricketers

[winner69]

Is 110 a new all time high, at least in recent years since the bailout

[winner69]

Bought in at $1.06, considering jumping in again.. hmmm

Better be quick mate

[pierre]

Hope it doesn't close at 111 ..... 111 is Nelson and brings bad luck to cricketers

Almost any number seems to bring bad luck to the Black Caps - hope none of them hold shares in HNZ!

[winner69]

If HNZ got a speeding ticket it would be very very hard for them to keep a straight face and say 'We have no idea of why the share price has increased but we remain fully compliant with all disclosure rules'

They will come clean soon and admit current guidance is really a bit stupid

[brend]

I'm interesting in knowing what exposure the bank has the rural/farming sector?? Given Fonterra's decreases in payouts we have yet to see the ramifications for farm owners just yet...

[winner69]

I'm interesting in knowing what exposure the bank has the rural/farming sector?? Given Fonterra's decreases in payouts we have yet to see the ramifications for farm owners just yet...

Percy had a post about this a week or so ago .... something like farmers wont be going broke and while dairy might be a struggle other farmers (beef, sheep etc) are doing very well at the moment.

HNZ lending is very diversified (the only time they use this word) and not particularly concentrated in any one area. Anyway get behind they might charge penalty interest ... that be good

Maybe Percy can repost his thoughts

[NZSilver]

I'm interesting in knowing what exposure the bank has the rural/farming sector?? Given Fonterra's decreases in payouts we have yet to see the ramifications for farm owners just yet...

yeh, they will prob need to borrow more money...inst this good for banks who sell debt? only a very small percentage will default.

[Bjauck]

I guess it depends on how long the downturn will last and the continued strength of the Chinese market. Given the expansive nature of NZ trust law and the prevalence of trusts in NZ, if a farm becomes insolvent HNZ may find the farms assets and the farmer's assets are out of its reach with personal guarantees yielding very little.

[winner69]

Seniors must be laughing all the way to the bank with the cheap shares they took as partial settlement now worth nearly $10m more.

Never was a fan of a company issuing cheap shares to buy things ....the gurus generally only use 'over valued' shares to buy things, otherwise debt a better option?

In hindsight not such a good idea and maybe shareholders not as well off?

Now they talking about buying shares back when by the time they get around to it might be seen to be 'overvalued'. Go figure.

[percy]

Seniors must be laughing all the way to the bank with the cheap shares they took as partial settlement now worth nearly $10m more.

Never was a fan of a company issuing cheap shares to buy things ....the gurus generally only use 'over valued' shares to buy things, otherwise debt a better option?

In hindsight not such a good idea and maybe shareholders not as well off?

Now they talking about buying shares back when by the time they get around to it might be seen to be 'overvalued'. Go figure.

Very easy to be clever in hindsight,far harder to be clever with foresight.
The fact is Heartland had the foresight to buy the REL business using a combination of cash and shares.In hindsight they secured a very substantial business,which they knew with foresight, would have taken them years to develop from scratch.

[Beagle]

Bought more today. I think I'm now well positioned :D...then again.... a few more wouldn't hurt.

[dingoNZ]

Will be buy in next day its down (eeek I hope is has a down day soon, sorry for those holding!).

[percy]

I have to congratulate you Percy on indoctrininating all the newbies to your visions of grandeur for HNZ.
Particularly all the ones that have selected it in their top 5 picks for next years comp. Hope it does well.
Afraid I don't like the fact that the sellers now well outnumber buyers for this stock 1.38 Million for sale vs buyers only wanting 105,000 , what happened there?
That overhang of sellers is still there and looks like they want out again................not too encouraging for the shareprice.

Above posted 23/12/2013.
HNZ closed at 86cents that day.
11 months on it would appear the indoctrinated newbies have done rather well taking out the overhang of sellers.Not only enjoying fully imputed dividends of 6 cents per share,but seeing the share price rise 24 cents to $1.10 today.
Depending how you account for the imputated dividend, I think 34% to 38% is rather a handsome return over 11 months.
Will it work out to be over 40% in another month's time???

[winner69]

Very easy to be clever in hindsight,far harder to be clever with foresight.
The fact is Heartland had the foresight to buy the REL business using a combination of cash and shares.In hindsight they secured a very substantial business,which they knew with foresight, would have taken them years to develop from scratch.

Agree with every word Percy

No argument from me

[Beagle]

Will be buy in next day its down (eeek I hope is has a down day soon, sorry for those holding!).

Good luck with that. you won't be the only person looking to add more on any dip, (there's my free tip for you) This puppy has heaps of room to run north :)

[winner69]

Percy (and others), you be close to doubling your money. Next week maybe

Two times 58 is 116 according to my calculator

Well done

[percy]

Percy (and others), you be close to doubling your money. Next week maybe

Two times 58 is 116 according to my calculator

Well done

Thank Winner69.
Been a great run so far.Yet I feel we are only now starting to see the results of the solid foundations that were put in place.
For someone like myself who put "retirement capital" into buying Heartland shares, the growing dividends will mean a lot more comfortable retirement for me and my wife.

[Beagle]

I'm picking fully imputed divvy's of 7 cps this year Percy, maybe a little higher, 8 cps in my dream on EPS of 10 cps. Where you at with you're thinking on 2015 divvy's mate ?

[couta1]

Roger your starting to scare me the last time you sounded this evangelical was on the Sum and AirNZ threads :eek2: Disc-Makes up 6.5 % of my portfolio and wont go over 10%, oh at 88c buy price.

[Beagle]

Yeah very keen mate. If it wasn't for Norah and Ebola we'd be rolling in it :cool: AIR doing okay now though, $2.35 if you add back in that monster divvy and special divvy they just paid out.
Yeah I started buying at 86 I think from memory. I've lost count of how many of these I've got now, that's scary coming from an accountant isn't it !!!
I suppose I should find some other horses to back but companies that are growing strongly, pay really decent fully imputed dividends and trade on really realistic PE multiples are not easy to find.

[couta1]

Yeah very keen mate. If it wasn't for Norah and Ebola we'd be rolling in it :cool: AIR doing okay now though, $2.35 if you add back in that monster divvy and special divvy they just paid out.
Yeah I started buying at 86 I think from memory. I've lost count of how many of these I've got now, that's scary coming from an accountant isn't it !!!
Remember your own 10% rule mate (Says the man who once had 30% of his potfolio in Chorus) ive sold half my AirNZ holding over the last week to bring it below the 10% mark as i see it as a fairly risky and volitile stock and one that could be affected easily by a number of events, i think you must be getting more reckless and myself more conservative, how ironic.

[percy]

I'm picking fully imputed divvy's of 7 cps this year Percy, maybe a little higher, 8 cps in my dream on EPS of 10 cps. Where you at with you're thinking on 2015 divvy's mate ?

Banks have shown great capacity to pay increasing [large] dividends,so Heartland should be able to continue their history of doing the same.
With so many variables such as acquisitions,and capital measures, I will be more than happy with 7 cents,which would be near enough to a 17% increase on the 6 cents we have had this year.
With Heartland using these acquisitions and capital measures to increase ROE and EPS I am happy for them to retain a good % of profits to fund growth.
As an aside I have over a good number of years seen Ebos return capital to shareholders,and also come back to shareholders for more capital when they have required it for another acquisition.I do not see why Heartland can't do the same.Too much capital is lazy,and having to come back to shareholders for capital to fund an acquisition means they have to convince shareholders the acquisition is worth funding.
The Seniors tied up shares are able to be sold in April next year,so whether Heartland can buy them back under market price or not we will have to see.That would make good use of excess capital.
Motor Trade Finance.The results of the court case should be known shortly.Once the liability [if any] is known I would expect Heartland to make their move to acquire MTF.I think it would be a great deal for both parties.

[Beagle]

Remember your own 10% rule mate (Says the man who once had 30% of his potfolio in Chorus) ive sold half my AirNZ holding over the last week to bring it below the 10% mark as i see it as a fairly risky and volitile stock and one that could be affected easily by a number of events, i think you must be getting more reckless and myself more conservative, how ironic.
Yeap mate I appreciate you reminding me of sensible allocation parameters. I must be close to 20% now but its a calculated risk and one based on a real dearth of other fair value opportunities on the NZX. HNZ is extremely well supported by very attractive fundamentals, trading on forward PE based on consensus analyst forecasts of 9.95 cents of only 11 times 2015 earnings. Gross divvy's I agree with Percy's comment below we're looking at 7 cps fully imputed, (7/0.72) = 9.72 cps gross for a gross divvy yield of 8.8% even on $1.10 SP. Its a stable business with a good capital base with an excellent outlook. Still cheap by regional small bank comparatives in Australia. I agree that AIR is in a different risk category so although I added some more recently at $2.13 to the other lot I bought back at $2.025 its only 7.3% of my portfolio value and won't be increased. Its nice to see you being more conservative mate, well done.


Banks have shown great capacity to pay increasing [large] dividends,so Heartland should be able to continue their history of doing the same.
With so many variables such as acquisitions,and capital measures, I will be more than happy with 7 cents,which would be near enough to a 17% increase on the 6 cents we have had this year.
With Heartland using these acquisitions and capital measures to increase ROE and EPS I am happy for them to retain a good % of profits to fund growth.
As an aside I have over a good number of years seen Ebos return capital to shareholders,and also come back to shareholders for more capital when they have required it for another acquisition.I do not see why Heartland can't do the same.Too much capital is lazy,and having to come back to shareholders for capital to fund an acquisition means they have to convince shareholders the acquisition is worth funding.
The Seniors tied up shares are able to be sold in April next year,so whether Heartland can buy them back under market price or not we will have to see.That would make good use of excess capital.
Motor Trade Finance.The results of the court case should be known shortly.Once the liability [if any] is known I would expect Heartland to make their move to acquire MTF.I think it would be a great deal for both parties.
Well thought out comment mate, appreciate it.