View Full Version : HGH - Heartland Group Holdings
Recaster
24-01-2023, 06:45 PM
Just going over the accounts fy22 and a couple of questions for any accounting boffins:
1. Effective interest rate method IFRS 9, how does this work when applied to reverse mortgages? Repayment dates are conditional on secured properties being vacated which are uncertain. Only thing I can think of is they use mortality tables from insurance companies to come up with likely repayment dates. How is the estimated income spread over the term of the advance?
2. When is capitalised interest taxable? If interest is added by capitalising it to the loan is it assessable then or only when received by HGH? The rate of tax HGH is paying seems to indicate it's assessable when capitalised.
3. Collateral received on derivatives. A liability. Why is this on the balance sheet at all? How does it work?
Appreciate some help on these points.
Cheers
Snow Leopard
24-01-2023, 11:52 PM
Just going over the accounts fy22 and a couple of questions for any accounting boffins:
1. Effective interest rate method IFRS 9, how does this work when applied to reverse mortgages? Repayment dates are conditional on secured properties being vacated which are uncertain. Only thing I can think of is they use mortality tables from insurance companies to come up with likely repayment dates. How is the estimated income spread over the term of the advance?
2. When is capitalised interest taxable? If interest is added by capitalising it to the loan is it assessable then or only when received by HGH? The rate of tax HGH is paying seems to indicate it's assessable when capitalised.
3. Collateral received on derivatives. A liability. Why is this on the balance sheet at all? How does it work?
Appreciate some help on these points.
Cheers
1/. Note 21(a) gives more detail into the assumptions used to determine the likely period of the loan.
As to how it is spread out. I don't know off the top of my head.
2/. It is taxed as it is recognised.
3/. Derivative assets appear on both the asset and liability side of the balance sheet. This stuff is real money so it would be really naughty to leave it off.
Note 12 may help.
Don't get too hung up on the minutiae of the accounts for there lies madness.
Recaster
25-01-2023, 03:22 PM
Thanks Snow Leopard. Much appreciated. Derivatives are a path to madness certainly.
winner69
26-01-2023, 02:41 PM
Probably good for Heartland
Banks tighten belts on agricultural investment loans as interest rates rise
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-01-25/rising-interest-rates-hit-farmers-wanting-to-invest-in-capital/101867396
Recaster
28-01-2023, 05:05 PM
Recast the FY22 accounts for this company going back just two years. Simple recasting not a traditional analysis using banking metrics like NIM. The numbers in the recast cash flow statement are very different from the published figures.
You can read it here:
Recast Accounts HGH FY22 (https://recastinvestor.substack.com/p/basic-analysis-heartland-group-holdings)
Probably good for Heartland
Banks tighten belts on agricultural investment loans as interest rates rise
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-01-25/rising-interest-rates-hit-farmers-wanting-to-invest-in-capital/101867396
HGH might need to preserve that Ca$h for our dividends if they're incubating more capitalised interest
earnings on Reverse jobs than the bottomline represents going forward :)
With all this Interest rate rise talk .. many might be hoping for a fairly good Dividend raise ..
Recast the FY22 accounts for this company going back just two years. Simple recasting not a traditional analysis using banking metrics like NIM. The numbers in the recast cash flow statement are very different from the published figures.
You can read it here:
Recast Accounts HGH FY22 (https://recastinvestor.substack.com/p/basic-analysis-heartland-group-holdings)
Thanks Recaster, always enjoy reading your stuff
Thanks Recaster, always enjoy reading your stuff
Indeed .. very informative analysis - Recast :)
Snow Leopard
28-01-2023, 10:17 PM
Recast the FY22 accounts for this company going back just two years. Simple recasting not a traditional analysis using banking metrics like NIM. The numbers in the recast cash flow statement are very different from the published figures.
You can read it here:
Recast Accounts HGH FY22 (https://recastinvestor.substack.com/p/basic-analysis-heartland-group-holdings)
Had a read of your analysis, it is an 'interesting' rejigging of the accounts.
You do seem to have a bit of a downer on Heartland.
Couple of comments:
But the whole profit amount is accounted for just in the reverse mortgage business interest income treatment of capitalised interest, the cash from which is coming in slowly compared to the size of the loan book.
income is not profit. You have a figure for reverse mortgage gross profit elsewhere.
Of note in the recast operating cash flow is the massive negative operating cash flow of $47.8m which is much worse than the preceding period.
There is a timing issue between the declaration of dividends and the payment of dividends which especially given the last couple of years have skewed this item drastically.
Had a read of your analysis, it is an 'interesting' rejigging of the accounts.
You do seem to have a bit of a downer on Heartland.
Couple of comments:
income is not profit. You have a figure for reverse mortgage gross profit elsewhere.
There is a timing issue between the declaration of dividends and the payment of dividends which especially given the last couple of years have skewed this item drastically.
Timing issue between dividends declared & paid would only be less than a month in many instances
The period the after balance Final is paid in V year it relates to I assume you are trying to reference here ? :)
Reverse Mortgages regardless of Income recognition must surely mean cash going out initially and usually
no inflow until a repayment event occurs.
The interest is effectively added to the loan for lifetime of the Loan (or Capitalised) - is it not ?
The only inflow back to HGH is likely therefore at end of loan life upon a Repayment event occurring
unless the borrower decides to make any reduction earlier, assuming this allowed.
There fore there is quite a valid point raised that Reverse Loan Interest is not cash income until
loan maturity usually occurs.
As the loan book grows, 100% of Principal plus all the accrued interest whether added to loan periodically
or at the end is financed by the Lender (ie HGH)
Snow Leopard
29-01-2023, 09:38 PM
Timing issue between dividends declared & paid would only be less than a month in many instances
The period the after balance Final is paid in V year it relates to I assume you are trying to reference here ? :)
Yes, that is what I meant to say, but somehow I got lost on route.
Reverse Mortgages regardless of Income recognition must surely mean cash going out initially and usually
no inflow until a repayment event occurs.
The interest is effectively added to the loan for lifetime of the Loan (or Capitalised) - is it not ?
The only inflow back to HGH is likely therefore at end of loan life upon a Repayment event occurring
unless the borrower decides to make any reduction earlier, assuming this allowed.
There fore there is quite a valid point raised that Reverse Loan Interest is not cash income until
loan maturity usually occurs.
As the loan book grows, 100% of Principal plus all the accrued interest whether added to loan periodically
or at the end is financed by the Lender (ie HGH)
Again yes, and I was not disputing that, but the conflating of two unrelated items: capitalised income and total profit.
Yes, that is what I meant to say, but somehow I got lost on route.
Again yes, and I was not disputing that, but the conflating of two unrelated items: capitalised income and total profit.
Well SL - if they book the interest charges on the Reverse Jobs .. it gets added to outstanding loan balances
and likely also booked as Revenue .. That said and done the interest revenue isn't going to be seen for
some time - likely when someone kicks the bucket, pays up early or the property is sold over which HGH
hold reverse Loan Security.
So it is quite correct to look on this as Interest on Reverse jobs is non cash for some time
The principle lent out & interest accumulating wont be seen for some time, but need to be
financed from somewhere. Any dividends and tax paid while accumulating interest is being added
on RV's may well be another thing and need also to be found.
Reverse Mortgages are pretty Capital Hungry due to the at times lengthy period they need to be carried
with little or nothing coming in off them back to HGH, until that repayment event happens
It's quite valid to look at the non Cash effects of these within the HGH Camp as the money
to carry them has to come from somewhere, if not coming from cash generated via banking profits :)
Snow Leopard
30-01-2023, 02:58 AM
OK. Time to put a stop to the nonsense.
Heartlands Reverse Mortgage portfolio IS cash flow positive.
As in maintaining the size of the loan book is generating free cash flow.
Expanding the book is a separate matter.
alokdhir
31-01-2023, 09:42 AM
" I recently significantly reduced my holding in HGH as I am not very happy with the culture there. "
Most ardent fan of HGH has lost faith in the company culture ...slowly people are coming around my original view that the company who dont bother about small investors is not worth holding ...But I got lots of flak from die hard fans here ....
Still waiting for " Many Golden Crosses to come in future " as promised by our good mate ...:p
percy
31-01-2023, 09:59 AM
" I recently significantly reduced my holding in HGH as I am not very happy with the culture there. "
Most ardent fan of HGH has lost faith in the company culture ...slowly people are coming around my original view that the company who dont bother about small investors is not worth holding ...But I got lots of flak from die hard fans here ....
Still waiting for " Many Golden Crosses to come in future " as promised by our good mate ...:p
You will miss out on the fully imputed divie in 44 days time.
alokdhir
31-01-2023, 10:06 AM
You will miss out on the fully imputed divie in 44 days time.
I have already got tax paid dividend plus 13% capital appreciation from KFL ...so I wont be missing anything mate ....:D
percy
31-01-2023, 10:21 AM
I have already got tax paid dividend plus 13% capital appreciation from KFL ...so I wont be missing anything mate ....:D
You are doing well with KFL.
alokdhir
31-01-2023, 10:34 AM
You are doing well with KFL.
Thanks mate ...I always wish u well :t_up:
" I recently significantly reduced my holding in HGH as I am not very happy with the culture there. "
Most ardent fan of HGH has lost faith in the company culture ...slowly people are coming around my original view that the company who dont bother about small investors is not worth holding ...But I got lots of flak from die hard fans here ....
Still waiting for " Many Golden Crosses to come in future " as promised by our good mate ...:p
who said that?
winner69
31-01-2023, 01:10 PM
who said that?
Not me Rawz
But my adoration of Jeff and his team is waning ….the halo is losing its shine …fast ……and Heartland doesn’t seem to be the Heartland it once was
Be a bad day if we ever had to say ‘Heartland didn’t do what they said they would do’ ….might not be far off
The ‘halo effect’ in business is an interesting concept. Might pull out my copy of “The Halo Effect: . . . and the Eight Other Business Delusions That Deceive Managers” and sit out in the sun (fogs lifting) and give it another read.
Jeff always delivers. Dont lose faith.
Even if the cap raise was poorly done and Jeff didnt participate.. it doesnt mean you should give up on him or the team
winner69
31-01-2023, 02:19 PM
Jeff always delivers. Dont lose faith.
Even if the cap raise was poorly done and Jeff didnt participate.. it doesnt mean you should give up on him or the team
Jeff did put $50k into the begging bowl as part of the SPP
Jeff did put $50k into the begging bowl as part of the SPP
oh okay. i recall there was one part of it he didnt put money in. it was so messy who knows lol
I had some beers with some mates that work at HGH the other day. They were telling me about HGHs home loan approval system, sounds pretty cool and very little human touch points. could be a game changer.
HGH is a true digital bank/fintech thingy. No wonder they can do rates well under those big aussie banks https://www.interest.co.nz/borrowing
alokdhir
31-01-2023, 04:04 PM
[QUOTE=Rawz;990925]who said that?
[/QUOTEhttps://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/misc/quote_icon.png Originally Posted by alokdhirhttps://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/buttons/viewpost-right.png (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?p=974559#post974559)HGH.NZ_YahooFin anceChart.jpg (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/attachment.php?attachmentid=14141&d=1662713925)
I just checked on yahoo charts ....200MA is 2.1993 ...100MA is 2.0595 ...50 MA is 2.000 ...20 MA is 1.9315
For my basic skills of TA thats pretty bad ...100 below 200 , 50 below 100 and 20 below 50 ...thats all death crosses as told to me by many TA experts
So maybe its really not looking good ...as per my basic TA skills ...
" Plenty of Golden Crosses coming up then ……that’s good I’m led to believe. "
Guess who wrote that buddy in reply to my belief that its in big downtrend and many people who always advised not to buy stocks in downtrend were busy lapping this one up ....lol
PS : Hint ...posted on 10th sept 2022 !!!
alokdhir
31-01-2023, 04:05 PM
I had some beers with some mates that work at HGH the other day. They were telling me about HGHs home loan approval system, sounds pretty cool and very little human touch points. could be a game changer.
HGH is a true digital bank/fintech thingy. No wonder they can do rates well under those big aussie banks https://www.interest.co.nz/borrowing
One question they have for mortgage loan or reverse mortgage loan ...type of cladding used ...any mention of plaster get rejected ...
One question they have for mortgage loan or reverse mortgage loan ...type of cladding used ...any mention of plaster get rejected ...
I dont reckon i would pass their system. credit card statement would blow up their AI :scared:
[QUOTE=Rawz;990925]who said that?
[/QUOTEhttps://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/misc/quote_icon.png Originally Posted by alokdhirhttps://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/buttons/viewpost-right.png (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?p=974559#post974559)HGH.NZ_YahooFin anceChart.jpg (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/attachment.php?attachmentid=14141&d=1662713925)
I just checked on yahoo charts ....200MA is 2.1993 ...100MA is 2.0595 ...50 MA is 2.000 ...20 MA is 1.9315
For my basic skills of TA thats pretty bad ...100 below 200 , 50 below 100 and 20 below 50 ...thats all death crosses as told to me by many TA experts
So maybe its really not looking good ...as per my basic TA skills ...
" Plenty of Golden Crosses coming up then ……that’s good I’m led to believe. "
Guess who wrote that buddy in reply to my belief that its in big downtrend and many people who always advised not to buy stocks in downtrend were busy lapping this one up ....lol
PS : Hint ...posted on 10th sept 2022 !!!
i havnt a clue but it sounds like gibberish to me lol
alokdhir
31-01-2023, 04:17 PM
I dont reckon i would pass their system. credit card statement would blow up their AI :scared:
To talk of their AI and HI ...I had funds transferred from ANZ Private to my old call account at Heartland for better rates ...it was SDCP with clear mention of my ANZ private account and funds being cashing out of my investments with them ...still that transfer got flagged and even their chief compliance officer rang me to provide proof of funds etc ...after that I never used their services ...they are pennywise and pound foolish kind of bank ..imo
alokdhir
31-01-2023, 04:19 PM
[QUOTE=alokdhir;990982]
i havnt a clue but it sounds like gibberish to me lol
U are too sharp mate ...:t_up:
Heartland have just increased some of their deposit rates.
https://www.heartland.co.nz/savings-and-deposits/interest-rates
850man
05-02-2023, 09:02 AM
Reverse mortgages on the rise https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/42996?utm_source=nzherald&utm_medium=nzhapp
Reverse mortgages on the rise https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/42996?utm_source=nzherald&utm_medium=nzhapp
Whose financing the extra Reverse Mortgages ?
Whose financing the interest added to the Reverse Mortgages ? ;)
Whose financing the extra Reverse Mortgages ?
Whose financing the interest added to the Reverse Mortgages ? ;)
The hugely profitable motor and equipment divisions ;)
The hugely profitable motor and equipment divisions ;)
And another hugely profitable dividend on the way next month too :)
winner69
08-02-2023, 07:57 AM
Dairy prices turned up last nights GDT auction ……been down or going nowhere last few months, just like HGH share price
Só bodes well for HGH in a month or so ……after half year results announced ….$2 plus here we come
alokdhir
08-02-2023, 08:18 AM
Dairy prices turned up last nights GDT auction ……been down or going nowhere last few months, just like HGH share price
Só bodes well for HGH in a month or so ……after half year results announced ….$2 plus here we come
This was your Xmas promise now its become Easter promise ...:p
Dlownz
08-02-2023, 07:57 PM
This was your Xmas promise now its become Easter promise ...:p
If Hgh share price had followed the big banks it should be around $2.30. Maybe there's a catch up around the corner?
ralph
08-02-2023, 08:42 PM
If Hgh share price had followed the big banks it should be around $2.30. Maybe there's a catch up around the corner?
Heartland is not a big bank that's one of the issues
Dlownz
08-02-2023, 09:01 PM
It doesn't matter if your a big bank. They are all making record profits and I don't see heartland being any different on that front
winner69
10-02-2023, 08:56 AM
Jeez - a guy from Forbar quoted in media
Similarly, Heartland Group may surprise some investors with a weaker report due to higher operating costs and deteriorating economic conditions.
alokdhir
10-02-2023, 09:21 AM
Jeez - a guy from Forbar quoted in media
Similarly, Heartland Group may surprise some investors with a weaker report due to higher operating costs and deteriorating economic conditions.
If that happens then ....$ 1.50 on cards ??
Asset finance is slowing says me (not rocket since). Maybe HY will be good but second half hmmmm
alokdhir
10-02-2023, 03:40 PM
Looks like smart money quietly getting out of HGH ....why so will be revealed ahead hopefully !!
Doesn't look like Rawz or Mr B or W69 buying ...for me thats super smart money ...lol
percy
10-02-2023, 04:00 PM
Looks like smart money quietly getting out of HGH ....why so will be revealed ahead hopefully !!
Doesn't look like Rawz or Mr B or W69 buying ...for me thats super smart money ...lol
The real smart money.?
The directors and management of HGH who have substantial shareholdings.
alokdhir
10-02-2023, 04:06 PM
The real smart money.?
The directors and management of HGH who have substantial shareholdings.
Maybe they dont have any choice like Mr B or me and U do ...but U maybe right mate ...no arguments ever :p
percy
10-02-2023, 04:11 PM
Maybe they dont have any choice like Mr B or me and U do ...but U maybe right mate ...no arguments ever :p
When you are a multi millionaire you have plenty of choices.
Always watch where " the big end of town invest their own money".
Also they do not change their minds every five minutes.
alokdhir
10-02-2023, 04:16 PM
When you are a multi millionaire you have plenty of choices.
Always watch where " the big end of town invest their own money".
I thought everyone looked at where Mr B's money going here when I joined ...so I thought thats super smart money ...but now I need understand if CEO of the company invests millions in his company like MFT boss does then it means he will make money for the small shareholders also ...good point buddy :t_up:
percy
10-02-2023, 04:29 PM
I thought everyone looked at where Mr B's money going here when I joined ...so I thought thats super smart money ...but now I need understand if CEO of the company invests millions in his company like MFT boss does then it means he will make money for the small shareholders also ...good point buddy :t_up:
Not just the CEO.management and particularly,the directors .
It's like the chicken and the pig walking down the road.
The chicken says to the pig,lets stop and have bacon and eggs for breakfast at that cafe over there.
The pig says no; it is only an involvement for you,but a commitment for me.
Look for who is making the commitment.?
winner69
10-02-2023, 04:32 PM
Greenslade reduced his holding a few months back
alokdhir
10-02-2023, 04:34 PM
Not just the CEO.management and particularly,the directors .
It's like the chicken and the pig walking down the road.
The chicken says to the pig,lets stop and have bacon and eggs for breakfast at that cafe over there.
The pig says no; it is only an involvement for you,but a commitment for me.
Look for who is making the commitment.?
I can see and understand your commitment mate :p
iceman
10-02-2023, 05:00 PM
The real smart money.?
The directors and management of HGH who have substantial shareholdings.
And aren't selling and hardly ever have. According to Mr B, this has gone from great to rubbish and back again and again a few times. I lost count.
percy
10-02-2023, 05:16 PM
23rd September 2022 disclosure notice we see commitment.Directors and management.
https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/hgh.nzx-399383/
Simsee
11-02-2023, 09:51 AM
Greenslade reduced his holding a few months back He “reduced” his holding by transferring some shares to his wife.
He “reduced” his holding by transferring some shares to his wife.
Are you sure it was his wife?
Did Jeff take up his share rights? If I remember correctly he didn’t
BlackPeter
11-02-2023, 12:16 PM
Are you sure it was his wife?
Did Jeff take up his share rights? If I remember correctly he didn’t
Come on ... its not so hard to read an announcement, isn't it?
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HGH/403034/384357.pdf
Admittedly - I have no clue whether the recipient Arabella Greenslade is his wife or his daughter (I suspect the latter), but it clearly is a fund transfer within the family - i.e. what's the point to raise eyebrows?
We going to reach $2.45 (as it was a year ago) again .. or not really ? ;)
the last three months seem to be suggesting holding the line .. maybe the punters
are waiting to see how HMY fares among the crocs in the bigger pond over the way ? ;)
Bjauck
13-02-2023, 09:27 AM
Come on ... its not so hard to read an announcement, isn't it?
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HGH/403034/384357.pdf
Admittedly - I have no clue whether the recipient Arabella Greenslade is his wife or his daughter (I suspect the latter), but it clearly is a fund transfer within the family - i.e. what's the point to raise eyebrows?
After a quick internet search, I think Arabella and Freddy are Jeff’s children. Arabella gave her brother a lovely landscape by Laken Whitecliffe as a wedding present in 2019….
https://www.facebook.com/178204122355630/photos/finished-commission-for-arabella-greenslade-who-gave-it-to-her-brother-freddy-gr/1147375378771828/?paipv=0&eav=AfbX3IthIWfxrzyo6F6aRQx5sCmoHRNHHJfxDIdm8_Rygl RUmx6TfIetNf5hjaMRpgI&_rdr (https://www.facebook.com/178204122355630/photos/finished-commission-for-arabella-greenslade-who-gave-it-to-her-brother-freddy-gr/1147375378771828/?paipv=0&eav=AfbX3IthIWfxrzyo6F6aRQx5sCmoHRNHHJfxDIdm8_Rygl RUmx6TfIetNf5hjaMRpgI&_rdr)
https://opencorporates.com/companies/nz/7966896/statements/share_parcel_object
winner69
15-02-2023, 12:42 PM
ASB profits up 10% ….higher NIM helped
All looking for Heartland …might even do better than this
percy
15-02-2023, 12:48 PM
Aussie Banks being naughty.
Trust HGH are doing the same..lol
https://smallcaps.us14.list-manage.com/track/click?u=ac3a9fdb691a7372f8b04b033&id=e112aa8d5c&e=6c1ad5cc63
winner69
20-02-2023, 10:12 AM
Results delayed a few days - bad weather given as reason
Bit of a wimp of an excuse .....half year ended 31 December
Probably have too many staff working from home these days
Results delayed a few days - bad weather given as reason
Bit of a wimp of an excuse .....half year ended 31 December
Probably have too many staff working from home these days
Hey Winner, the building they work in leaks like a sieve lol.
old article but still having same problems : https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/116592100/shoppers-met-with-buckets-and-rags-across-at-the-new-790m-westfield-newmarket-mall
No choice but to work from home. cool aye
Snoopy
20-02-2023, 10:46 AM
Results delayed a few days - bad weather given as reason
Bit of a wimp of an excuse .....half year ended 31 December
Probably have too many staff working from home these days
I would have thought an aspirational fintech would have all of this reporting stuff automated by now. So probably water getting into the wires is the real reason for this delay. I am picking the result will be 'exactly as Jeff said it will be'. So the real interest will be looking at how the one offs have been arranged to make it so. I wouldn't put it past the HGH team to wade in with a small surprise though. My guess: Jeff finally outs himself as an android! Another relentless step in the fintech automation game for Heartland!
SNOOPY
percy
20-02-2023, 10:52 AM
I take it as positive that they run a lean head office.
winner69
20-02-2023, 10:56 AM
Hey Snoops ….automation isn’t yet capable of doing de-designation of derivatives stuff ..Jeff tried and stuffed it up last time
Might check with ChatGPT how it’s actually done
winner69
20-02-2023, 02:40 PM
Jeff spooked the market - share price collapsing
percy
20-02-2023, 02:45 PM
Jeff spooked the market - share price collapsing
He certainly did.....lol.
ronaldson
20-02-2023, 02:58 PM
Perhaps the underlying issue is related to provisioning, given the recent weather circumstances will have adversely impacted many borrowers?
I see Geoff Ricketts is stepping down as chairman for an indefinite period (but will remain a director) due to health issues w/ Tomlinson taking over as chair.
winner69
24-02-2023, 07:44 AM
Suppose Jeff will be raving about a 8% or so increase next week
Should be doing better Jeff if Kiwibank half year profit rises 53pc to $98 million (NZ Herald headline)
percy
24-02-2023, 09:04 AM
Suppose Jeff will be raving about a 8% or so increase next week
Should be doing better Jeff if Kiwibank half year profit rises 53pc to $98 million (NZ Herald headline)
Kiwi Bank
The bank's net interest margin, the difference between income generated from credit products like loans, and payments made to deposit savers and others the bank borrows from, surged to 2.42% from 2.04% year-on-year. This comes after ASB last week reported a 33 basis points rise in its interim net interest margin to 2.52%.
What will be of interest in HGH's result will be their NIM.
Always the highest of the banks.
We have seen it reduce as they have been lending on lower margin business,so will it rise again.,and if so by how much?
winner69
24-02-2023, 09:07 AM
Kiwi Bank
The bank's net interest margin, the difference between income generated from credit products like loans, and payments made to deposit savers and others the bank borrows from, surged to 2.42% from 2.04% year-on-year. This comes after ASB last week reported a 33 basis points rise in its interim net interest margin to 2.52%.
All the more reason why we should be expecting more from Heartland next week …in this environment ‘incremental’ increases in profit not good enough ….especially now when ‘normalising’ things is the new norm
percy
24-02-2023, 09:11 AM
All the more reason why we should be expecting more from Heartland next week …in this environment ‘incremental’ increases in profit not good enough ….especially now when ‘normalising’ things is the new norm
[
Agree "normalising" is the new norm far too often in the market now days.
winner69
27-02-2023, 06:02 PM
The half year result out tomorrow
Last year normalised was $47.1m
This year how about $55m .... well on way to guidance if achieved
winner69
28-02-2023, 09:29 AM
The half year result out tomorrow
Last year normalised was $47.1m
This year how about $55m .... well on way to guidance if achieved
Thought I'd be close
On an underlying basis, 1H2023 NPAT was $54.7 million, an increase of $7.6 million (16.2%) compared with the 1H2022 underlying NPAT
Just as well for normalising though ..... real NPAT was only $48.7m an increase of a miserly $1.1m or 2%
Jeff getting as bad as Fletchers with their normalising - not good
EPS flat (on both real and underlying)
Not a buy! solid hold, nothing to see here
overall i think if you were a long term shareholder you can sleep easy at night and let the sp do its thing
Thought I'd be close
On an underlying basis, 1H2023 NPAT was $54.7 million, an increase of $7.6 million (16.2%) compared with the 1H2022 underlying NPAT
Just as well for normalising though ..... real NPAT was only $48.7m an increase of a miserly $1.1m or 2%
Jeff getting as bad as Fletchers with their normalising - not good
Seems as though Jeff loosing his Midas touch (if not already lost)...been there too long I 'pose.
Master98
28-02-2023, 09:39 AM
Jeff getting as bad as Fletchers with their normalising - not good
sp down to $1.6 level?
iceman
28-02-2023, 09:46 AM
EPS flat (on both real and underlying)
Not a buy! solid hold, nothing to see here
overall i think if you were a long term shareholder you can sleep easy at night and let the sp do its thing
Agree this is a good hold but these numbers are a bit disappointing, particularly the NIM being down significantly while the big banks are increasing theirs. Still a happy holder but not disappointed I reduced a little recently.
percy
28-02-2023, 09:46 AM
EPS flat (on both real and underlying)
Not a buy! solid hold, nothing to see here
overall i think if you were a long term shareholder you can sleep easy at night and let the sp do its thing
Yes very much as I see the result too.
Looking as though future "real" growth will come from Aussie,so I am pleased they are progressing well there.
bull....
28-02-2023, 09:50 AM
net int margin declining has got to be a worrying sign .:scared:
most banks are increasing there's
winner69
28-02-2023, 09:53 AM
Seems like all the profit groth basically came from StockCo - other segments up and down and in total end up the same
winner69
28-02-2023, 09:56 AM
At least no surprise capital raise this time .... leave that to full year eh:)
But HBL putting the begging bowl out for some subordinated notes
percy
28-02-2023, 10:04 AM
Seems like all the profit groth basically came from StockCo - other segments up and down and in total end up the same
Yes,also interesting that they are looking a motor vehicle lending in Aussie too.
They know where and what they want to achieve.
Banking licence will open the door to cheaper funds.
A lot to look forward to.
alokdhir
28-02-2023, 10:04 AM
Seems like all the profit groth basically came from StockCo - other segments up and down and in total end up the same
I am still waiting for " Many many golden crosses to come in future "....lol :p
I am sure eventually they will come but maybe not as early as $ 2 by Xmas or by Easter ...maybe by next Xmas ...:D
Heartlands son, Harmoney, is going to disrupt the car loan market by approving the customer a bunch of cash and putting it in their bank account.
the customer then can go around all the dealerships shopping around and be a 'cash buyer'. By passing the dealers in house finance which maybe Marac (heartland).
the customer then has 60 days to provide Harmoney the rego and insurance certificate to keep the lower car loan rate. if not provided the loan will revert to standard personal loan rates.
quite interesting i thought.
anyways, HGH SP is holding up well today off the back of todays results. like i said a strong hold. good stuff
just looking at the cashflow statement and HGH has a negative operating cashflow this HY.
thats not good.
percy
28-02-2023, 04:13 PM
just looking at the cashflow statement and HGH has a negative operating cashflow this HY.
thats not good.
Not an issue for a bank.
thegreatestben
28-02-2023, 04:59 PM
sp down to $1.6 level?
Closing in the opposite direction :)
winner69
28-02-2023, 05:08 PM
Suppose having to write down their Harmoney investment again can be described as not normal so is excluded from underlying/normalised NPAT
One day the adjustment might be so abnormal they’ll normalise it lol
percy
28-02-2023, 05:40 PM
Suppose having to write down their Harmoney investment again can be described as not normal so is excluded from underlying/normalised NPAT
One day the adjustment might be so abnormal they’ll normalise it lol
Well we may yet see HMY investment paying off for HGH..
They are doing what they say they will do, and going gangbusters in Aussie.
BlackPeter
28-02-2023, 05:42 PM
Not an issue for a bank.
Quite right. Just highlights that they are successful with their reverse mortgages. No issue as long as they sell enough bonds to cover for them.
percy
01-03-2023, 08:57 AM
https://sendy.tarawera.co.nz/l/J6oLVth2f3f6IXNYvUBQEg/TUyBXqFUqAgROMe7633Mf6fw/iB7LULWV7634FX892iXSeV63gw
winner69
01-03-2023, 09:23 AM
Headline from Percy’s link
Heartland absorbs pressures to post $48m half-year profit
winner69
01-03-2023, 09:29 AM
I am still waiting for " Many many golden crosses to come in future "....lol :p
I am sure eventually they will come but maybe not as early as $ 2 by Xmas or by Easter ...maybe by next Xmas ...:D
About to happen alokdhir
Nor far away now
winner69
01-03-2023, 09:33 AM
Wow ….NZ Reverse Mortgages …Profit UP 40% to $17.9m in H1
That’s pretty good
Dlownz
01-03-2023, 09:48 AM
Wow ….NZ Reverse Mortgages …Profit UP 40% to $17.9m in H1
That’s pretty good
Beat me to that winner. Was suppose to put one up yesterday to say the reverse mortgages will be increasing at a rapid rate now for years to come. Are any of the big banks doing it yet?
alokdhir
01-03-2023, 09:55 AM
About to happen alokdhir
Nor far away now
Surely it will happen ....why not ? Just some timing issues at the moment ....:t_up:
A few of the big banks did have reverse mortgages and then dropped it I thought a few years ago - pre (start)covid years
May be they will re think it - well may be not while property prices seem to be dropping!
Onemootpoint
01-03-2023, 06:16 PM
I recall a few others trying and dropping it some years ago.
it’s a niche area for HGH; how would increased competition influence shareholders and therefore share price though.
kizame
01-03-2023, 06:38 PM
Thing is though, what will happen to their security in reverse mortgages with a falling property market?
Thing is though, what will happen to their security in reverse mortgages with a falling property market?
their lending ratios are unlikely to result in a shortfall except in the case of unprecedented falls in the property market , which are possible but not that likely unless we go into a full on long lasting Depression.
Recaster
01-03-2023, 06:46 PM
Wow ….NZ Reverse Mortgages …Profit UP 40% to $17.9m in H1
That’s pretty good
Except large chunks of the interest income are promises to pay at unknown future dates.
percy
01-03-2023, 06:59 PM
From HGH presentation yesterday page 19 NZ Reverse Mortgages Portfolio Analytics..Page 29 has their Australian analytics.
Average loan size $122,751
Weighted average borrowers’ age 78
Average origination LVR 10.0%
Weighted average LVR 19.7%
Proportion of the loan book over 75% LVR 0.0%
Number of loans in the book over 75% LVR 0
1H2023 origination $109m
(+$33m vs 1H2022)
Total repayments in 1H2023 $51m
(+$5m vs 1H2022)
1H2023 repayment rate
14.0%
(vs 15.2% in 1H2022)
Compounded annual growth rate1 13.4%
Repayments from vintage loans (+11 years) 31.4%
(vs 36.0% in 1H2022)
Here is the presentation for those who have not read it.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HBL/407457/389620.pdf
Baa_Baa
01-03-2023, 07:00 PM
Thing is though, what will happen to their security in reverse mortgages with a falling property market?
Not really a problem, have a look at this (https://www.heartland.co.nz/reverse-mortgage/reverse-mortgage-calculator#tracking__rm-calculator__step-2__header) what you could actually borrow. (look at the interest rate as well, ouch!)
Recaster
01-03-2023, 07:26 PM
From HGH presentation yesterday page 19 NZ Reverse Mortgages Portfolio Analytics..Page 29 has their Australian analytics.
Average loan size $122,751
Weighted average borrowers’ age 78
Average origination LVR 10.0%
Weighted average LVR 19.7%
Proportion of the loan book over 75% LVR 0.0%
Number of loans in the book over 75% LVR 0
1H2023 origination $109m
(+$33m vs 1H2022)
Total repayments in 1H2023 $51m
(+$5m vs 1H2022)
1H2023 repayment rate
14.0%
(vs 15.2% in 1H2022)
Compounded annual growth rate1 13.4%
Repayments from vintage loans (+11 years) 31.4%
(vs 36.0% in 1H2022)
Here is the presentation for those who have not read it.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HBL/407457/389620.pdf
Excellent, thanks. Quite complex.
iceman
01-03-2023, 07:35 PM
Except large chunks of the interest income are promises to pay at unknown future dates.
At high interest rates and very good security and low risk. This is a great business that HGH is doing well both in Australia & NZ. Undoubtedly a driver of great growth.
Onemootpoint
01-03-2023, 11:21 PM
From HGH presentation yesterday page 19 NZ Reverse Mortgages Portfolio Analytics..Page 29 has their Australian analytics.
Average loan size $122,751
Weighted average borrowers’ age 78
Average origination LVR 10.0%
Weighted average LVR 19.7%
Proportion of the loan book over 75% LVR 0.0%
Number of loans in the book over 75% LVR 0
1H2023 origination $109m
(+$33m vs 1H2022)
Total repayments in 1H2023 $51m
(+$5m vs 1H2022)
1H2023 repayment rate
14.0%
(vs 15.2% in 1H2022)
Compounded annual growth rate1 13.4%
Repayments from vintage loans (+11 years) 31.4%
(vs 36.0% in 1H2022)
Here is the presentation for those who have not read it.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HBL/407457/389620.pdf
This is good. Thanks!
percy
02-03-2023, 07:43 AM
And this is The Australian HGH Reverse Mortgage Analytics.
Average loan size A$156,497
Weighted average borrowers’ age 77
Average origination LVR 11.7%
Weighted average LVR 20.0%
Proportion of the loan book over 75% LVR 0.1%
Number of loans in the book over 75% LVR 3
1H2023 origination $169m
(+$58m vs 1H2022)
Total repayments in 1H2023 A$97m
(+A$21m vs 1H2022)
1H2023 repayment rate
16.7%
(vs 15.1% in 1H2022)
Compounded annual growth rate1 18.5%
Repayments from vintage loans (+11 years) 17.2%
(vs 18.5% in 1H2022)
BlackPeter
02-03-2023, 08:49 AM
Except large chunks of the interest income are promises to pay at unknown future dates.
Basically the same problem as for any life insurance company. Good thing is - for large (statistically relevant) numbers the maths to calculate life expectation is pretty settled.
SCOTTY
02-03-2023, 08:49 AM
Excellent. Well done Percy :)
winner69
02-03-2023, 09:44 AM
Doesn’t actually mean anything but NTA per share fell from $1.17 in comparable period to $1.09 at December
Doesn’t actually mean anything but NTA per share fell from $1.17 in comparable period to $1.09 at December
book value per share continues to increase: Dec.21 $1.32 > Jun.22 $1.36 > post cap raise LY $1.428 > Dec 22 $1.44.
the noted change in NTA a natural consequence of the multiple above NTA paid for Stockco, more or less transferring some tangible assets (cash) into intangible (goodwill). Hence why I prefer to look at BV in terms of multiples and returns on equity, as if you measured ROE as NPAT over NTA it would look rather impressive as it includes acquired earnings but not the goodwill purchased, whereas NPAT over BV includes goodwill and measures how well (or not) your acquisitions are fairing.
whats an appropriate book value multiple for a minor like HGH?
1.2x? SP fair value $1.73?
whats an appropriate book value multiple for a minor like HGH?
1.2x? SP fair value $1.73?
best way to consider that is the 'warranted price to book' framework that considers three variables: sustainable ROE, sustainable growth in BV per share, and cost of equity (some old examples of that in the TRA thread)
or can look at a scatter plot bank ROE's and their P/BV multiples (some older graphs of this hanging around from last year) and see where HGH's ROE should place it in the line of best fit
Thanks FM.
The market has on avg since 2015 given HGH a 1.28x price/book value. assuming the weighing machine is correct maybe fair value is 1.28x $1.44= $1.84 fair value sp vs today at $1.79
This is good enough for dummies like me lol
iceman
02-03-2023, 10:52 AM
While it was a bit disappointing to see our NIM dropping while other banks are increasing theirs, particularly in the Q4 2022, our 3.97% still compares favourably, and it needs to. This from the Herald today:
"According to data collected by the Reserve Bank, banks’ net interest margin rose by 6 basis points, to 2.37 per cent, in the final three months of 2022.
The margin last reached this level in December 2014. The last time it was higher was in June 2006, when it hit 2.50 per cent."
percy
02-03-2023, 10:55 AM
Looking Forward.page 37 recent presentation.
• The pleasing result in 1H2023 highlights the resilience of Heartland’s product portfolios despite the ongoing current economic challenges in New
Zealand and Australia. Strong growth continued in core portfolios, though softened elsewhere due to suppressed credit demand.
• It is currently anticipated that 2H2023 will deliver a similar result to 1H2023 on an underlying basis. In particular, continued growth is expected in
Motor and Asset Finance. Usual seasonal fluctuations are expected to contribute to a better half for StockCo Australia and Heartland Bank’s Rural
portfolio in New Zealand. Increased demand is expected for Reverse Mortgages in both countries where the product has proven to offer a good
solution for many seniors wanting to live a more comfortable retirement, especially as the cost of living rises.
• Heartland’s NIM is expected to stabilise at its current level as Heartland continues to proactively manage portfolio pricing and margin in
competitive markets.
• Efficiencies through digitalisation and the upgrade of Heartland Bank’s core banking system are critical pathways to a lower CTI ratio. As the
results demonstrate, Heartland continues to grow its revenue line, contributing favourably to its CTI ratio. However, ultimate efficiency requires
that costs are also addressed. This will remain a focus of Heartland’s through 2H2023.
• The remainder of the 2023 calendar year will be significant for Heartland as it progresses towards the completion of the acquisition of Challenger
Bank, therefore becoming an ADI in Australia, and realises the benefits this will provide its existing Australian businesses Heartland Finance and
StockCo Australia – as well as future product opportunities.
Heartland expects NPAT for FY2023 to be in the range of $109 million to $114 million, excluding any impacts
of fair value changes on equity investments held and the impact of the de-designation of derivatives.
Looks like Forbar analyst have read the W69 and Mr B exchange here after new Australian acquisition announcement ...they both agreed to 1 cps addition to bottom line thus giving it 15-20 cents push .
$ 2.60 target now stands at $ 2.75 ....:t_up:
Now just a $1.79 .. still a bargain or not - approaching 12 months or so on ? ;)
Even the hounds were excited about things then at those loftier levels ..
And some even thought it was winner at even higher levels ..
winner69
02-03-2023, 03:24 PM
This paragraph they included is a bit of a rave…. ‘ • It is currently anticipated that 2H2023 will deliver a similar result to 1H2023 on an underlying basis. In particular, continued growth is expected in Motor and Asset Finance. Usual seasonal fluctuations are expected to contribute to a better half for StockCo Australia and Heartland Bank’s Rural portfolio in New Zealand. Increased demand is expected for Reverse Mortgages in both countries where the product has proven to offer a goodsolution for many seniors wanting to live a more comfortable retirement, especially as the cost of living rises.
so H1 was 55m …H2 similar so may 110m full year …lower end of guidance.
if you read it out of context it sort of says all those things will generate growth but 55m is not growth over 55m
Of course stupid me it’s growth over H222 eh and 55m this year is more than 47m last year eh.
hope Jeff keeps on doing what he says he will do …but with.a pretty full bottom drawer that should be a piece of cake.
winner69
03-03-2023, 10:04 AM
Jarden’s Grant Lowe is a good guy and must be a guru analyst -- BusinessDesk reports he was more upbeat with a $2.27 target, up from $2.09, and an “overweight” recommendation.
Like it
Interesting graph…
14503
https://www.newsroom.co.nz/pro/growing-momentum-for-david-and-goliath-official-inquiry-into-banks?utm_source=Newsroom&utm_campaign=db1dd5e14d-Week+In+Review+04.03.2023&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_71de5c4b35-db1dd5e14d-97978245
HGH not really a bank. More like a finance company.
Motor and asset finance margins went weird all of last year. TRAs Oxford suffered NIM dropping and they commented that the market was very competitive.
I’m not sure entirely why the margins went crazy but I think it had something to do with grant Robertson’s cheap money to the banks. It kicked off a round of poaching and heartland was a player in this. I do recall heartland hired 50 BDMs to hunt business and they were all on 12 month contracts.
Anyways Heartlands NIM will revert back to normal soon
winner69
09-03-2023, 08:54 AM
Papers full of stories about how the greedy, nasty, mean and horrible banks are making huge profits while households are suffering and we urgently must have an enquiry into it and sort the buggers out
Stuff headline was By the numbers: Here's why some people think banks are making too much money and story goes on -
Banks continue to make record profits while households experience enormous increases in their mortgage rates.
Bank ethics are also being questioned, after it was revealed banks were offering secretive home loan deals at rates far below those offered to their loyal customers.
So why are so many people so angry?
And then they show a chart headed 'The rise and rise of bank profits'
Although the anger is probably aimed at the big banks it seems that Heartland with their 'rise and rise of profits' could be just as greedy and nasty and horrible
Cool chart though
justakiwi
09-03-2023, 09:08 AM
They could be, but at least they are now (usually) the bank offering the best deposit interest rates. In the past Rabobank was number one in that department, but Heartland is giving them a good run for their money now. Customers are less likely to bitch about bank profits when they are getting a significantly better deal from the banks. Not that it will last, but people can at least take advantage of these rates now.
Although the anger is probably aimed at the big banks it seems that Heartland with their 'rise and rise of profits' could be just as greedy and nasty and horrible
if only we could buy shares in these banks making humongous profits
SCOTTY
09-03-2023, 11:37 AM
if only we could buy shares in these banks making humongous profits
You can. Take a look on the ASX
Snoopy
09-03-2023, 12:26 PM
if only we could buy shares in these banks making humongous profits
You can. Take a look on the ASX
I have a feeling that Rawz knows that. In fact you don't even have to go the the ASX, because ANZ and WBC are listed on the NZX.
I think his post was along the lines of "Don't get mad" (complaining about bank profits). "Get even" (buy the bank shares, and harvest the excess bank profits for yourself).
SNOOPY
I have a feeling that Rawz knows that. In fact you don't even have to go the the ASX, because ANZ and WBC are listed on the NZX.
I think his post was along the lines of "Don't get mad" (complaining about bank profits). "Get even" (buy the bank shares, and harvest the excess bank profits for yourself).
SNOOPY
You're onto it. Might write to stuff.co.nz and share this info. no excuses now as with sharesies even the smallest of investors can get a slice of these big profits.
stuff.co.nz could then just divert to writing about the greedy CEO's and their big pay packs lol
percy
09-03-2023, 12:51 PM
Supermarkets,
Petrol Stations.
Banks.
Over paid Politicians.
Under paid consultants.
Price of cat food.
Helps to keep people's minds off the bad weather..lol.
what's up with HMY on ASX ?
All of a sudden HMY's Au 64c becomes 48.0c
Sure the Ozzie economy has taken a series of RBA inflicted Interest kingshots to date, so things aren't looking quite as rosy
Pegasus2000
09-03-2023, 09:25 PM
Can't fix things however still need public attention.
Supermarkets,
Petrol Stations.
Banks.
Over paid Politicians.
Under paid consultants.
Price of cat food.
Helps to keep people's minds off the bad weather..lol.
dibble
09-03-2023, 10:29 PM
Papers full of stories about how the greedy, nasty, mean and horrible banks are making huge profits while households are suffering and we urgently must have an enquiry into it and sort the buggers out
That's terrible.....now isnt one of those nasty banks owned by the Govt?
GTM 3442
10-03-2023, 09:33 AM
That's terrible.....now isnt one of those nasty banks owned by the Govt?
I don't think so. I think the ever-changing collection of KiwiBank-owning QANGOs are trying their darndest to get out.
Heartland going to tank today because of the SVB meltdown?? Or nah she'll be right?
winner69
13-03-2023, 08:46 AM
Ricketts has passed away
Was pretty dedicated to Heartland …..even had to put up with being called a ‘an old grey haired fuddy duddy’ by a shareholder at a ASM
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HGH/408202/390539.pdf
percy
13-03-2023, 08:53 AM
Ricketts has passed away
Was pretty dedicated to Heartland …..even had to put up with being called a ‘an old grey haired fuddy duddy’ by a shareholder at a ASM
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HGH/408202/390539.pdf
Yes dedicated to Heartland and the community.
winner69
13-03-2023, 09:02 AM
Heartland going to tank today because of the SVB meltdown?? Or nah she'll be right?
With SVB we shouldn't be surprised when greed, myopia and complacency induces bankers to do stupid things. Like the risks of mismatched asset and liability term structures are taught in banker kindergarten. Lessons forgotten and SVB shouldn’t be bailed out
Heartland aren’t like that and match their assets and liabilities sensibly
No worries here …but markets might think all banks are going to fall over so you never know whether HGH will tank or not rawz
With SVB we shouldn't be surprised when greed, myopia and complacency induces bankers to do stupid things. Like the risks of mismatched asset and liability term structures are taught in banker kindergarten. Lessons forgotten and SVB shouldn’t be bailed out
Heartland aren’t like that and match their assets and liabilities sensibly
No worries here …but markets might think all banks are going to fall over so you never know whether HGH will tank or not rawz
was thinking maybe some part time recreational investors that jumped into HGH after all the brokers picked it in the Heralds stock picks 2023 comp.. maybe these investors read this mornings head line and decide to get out in a hurry..... hope not that would be dumb
Markets on edge after US bank collapse
percy
13-03-2023, 09:13 AM
Heartland Bank’s regulatory capital ratio reduced to
13.15% as at 31 December 2022 (30 June 2022: 13.49%)
following the removal of any bank dividend restrictions by
the RBNZ on 1 July 2022. Heartland Bank continues to
operate significantly in excess of regulatory minimums and
is well positioned to meet the RBNZ’s future higher capital
requirements.
• The RBNZ future capital requirements are for a core
capital ratio of 11.50% and a total capital ratio of 16.00%
by 1 July 2028.
As Winner69 pointed out:
Heartland aren’t like that and match their assets and liabilities sensibly.
BlackPeter
13-03-2023, 09:15 AM
Ricketts has passed away
Was pretty dedicated to Heartland …..even had to put up with being called a ‘an old grey haired fuddy duddy’ by a shareholder at a ASM
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HGH/408202/390539.pdf
Met him at several AGM's and had some chats with him. He always came across as dedicated, thoughtful, professional and human. He clearly had an huge impact on shaping Heartland into what it is today. Good guy - we need more directors made out of this cloth.
Very sad news re Geoff. A corporate titan until the end.
iceman
13-03-2023, 10:44 AM
Sad news. His loyalty and dedication over decades to HGH and its predecessors is undoubted and highly valued. May he rest in peace.
winner69
13-03-2023, 11:09 AM
Hey Rawz …… share price “tanking” all your fault
Might even go into the 150s …even alokdhir might become interested again at the price
winner69
13-03-2023, 11:13 AM
If that happens then ....$ 1.50 on cards ??
You called it …..no golden crosses …might be death crosses soon …or even worse abandoned babies
Alokdhir probably only interested around book value. $1.44 sp. thats when its really cheap
gosh why did HGH go and buy all those aussie assets at the peak of the cycle . probably get them for cents on the dollar atm
Snoopy
13-03-2023, 11:49 AM
I am currently sitting on an average buy price of $1.47 per share (post capital raising). I know for some of you Heartland long termers, that would be a pretty lame average entry price. But it ticks the 'Mr B' value box of around $1.50 ( buy HGH ie 9 times ie 9x 16.2 = 150 ...). So for someone late to the Heartland party, I am happy.
I have been diligently building up my shareholding through the DRP too. A few acquired last dividend time at $2.11. The dividend before that, a few more at $2.27. Hey, just a minute - I think that means I have just lost money! What was I thinking! Have I been caught up in the personality cult of Jeff? As his greatest ever supporter (a fact Percy will surely vouch for), surely not!
It looks like my 'bad luck' with the DRP is continuing?
"The interim dividend will be paid on Wednesday 22 March 2023 (Payment Date) to shareholders on the company’s register as at 5.00pm NZDT on Wednesday 8 March 2023 (Record Date) and will be fully imputed."
The Strike Price will be calculated in accordance with the following formula: SP = P x E
Where: P is the volume weighted average sale price in New Zealand dollars (expressed in cents and fractions of cents) for a Share calculated on all trades of Shares which took place through the NZX Main Board over the period of 5 trading days immediately following the Record Date. I realise the volume weighted share price is not the same as the closing price (Is there an on line source for the volume weighted share price?). But the closing share price on the days in question are listed below:
Closing price on the days in question are Thursday 9th March ($1.74), Friday 10th March ($1.73), Monday 13th March ($1.67?), Tuesday 14th March ($?) and Wednesday 15th March ($?)
And E: Dividend plan discount this time is 2%, so E = (1-0.02) = 0.98
Have changed my thinking while writing this post, realising that we have two more 'discount days' to run. Come on all you reef fish shareholders, the sky is falling: Sell, sell, SELL!
SNOOPY
winner69
13-03-2023, 11:58 AM
Hey snoops
You seem to be hoping for a low as possible DRP price
Only thing wrong with that ‘wish’ is that your ‘bad luck’ with DRPs could still continue
Even if you get some at 160 this time it will still look sad when share price is 140 eh
winner69
13-03-2023, 02:55 PM
SMH
Reverse mortgage demand surges as cost of living hits retirees
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/reverse-mortgage-demand-surges-as-cost-of-living-hits-retirees-20230310-p5cr3z.html
Extract: Jarden analyst Grant Lowe said Australia’s reverse mortgage market had probably been growing because of a “demographic tailwind” and the federal government’s involvement in the sector.
I love demographic tailwinds …..they last for generations
SMH
Reverse mortgage demand surges as cost of living hits retirees
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/reverse-mortgage-demand-surges-as-cost-of-living-hits-retirees-20230310-p5cr3z.html
Extract: Jarden analyst Grant Lowe said Australia’s reverse mortgage market had probably been growing because of a “demographic tailwind” and the federal government’s involvement in the sector.
I love demographic tailwinds …..they last for generations
How's it being funded, if P&I on Reverse jobs are all being backloaded until a later rainy day
when the bucket gets kicked ? :)
Snoopy
13-03-2023, 06:10 PM
How's it being funded, if P&I on Reverse jobs are all being backloaded until a later rainy day
when the bucket gets kicked ? :)
I am funding it, via the DRP :). Diluting my own 'earnings per share' in the process :(
SNOOPY
How's it being funded, if P&I on Reverse jobs are all being backloaded until a later rainy day
when the bucket gets kicked ? :)
Well - its being funded by HGH through drawdowns on committed facilities & deposits, as the reverse mortgages are drip fed (IE not provided all at once up front) to customers.
Yes - interest income isn't realised in the form of cash (think I was the first to point this out) until the underlying property is sold and the loan is repaid. That's not a bad thing - as it compounds. Ah - the power of compounding interest - especially when provided at very attractive NIM/NOI margins as a % of average receivables, and exceptional NLM (net interest income less credit losses). Analogous to a bank account, I think most would agree it makes better long term financial sense to reinvest interest income so that interest in turn compounds, and then compounds, and compounds again until maturity. Thanks to committed facilities which it uses to fund its RM working capital requirements, and other diversified cash income streams, HGH is in the nice position it can defer interest cash conversion so it can secure a larger and accretive payout later.
A more fulsome analysis of the cashflow and capital intensity profile of the reverse mortgage business - and banking more generally - needs to consider the risk weighting of underlying credit exposures as that is ultimately the key driver to the capital tied up in a financial institution. In that respect RM's are highly capital efficient, with 50% risk weightings in both NZ and Australia.
Digging into the disclosure statements for HBL (NZ bank), of its $5.359bn net credit exposure, $2.037bn of that was corporate exposures to unrated borrowers, which demanded a 100% risk weighting ($2.037), and tied up $162.9m of pillar 1 capital (8% of RW exposures)
Reverse mortgages has net credit exposure of $805.1m, a 50% risk weighting, and required only $32.2m of pillar 1 capital.
So - the differential in risk weighting dramatically more than offsets interest income being capitalised to receivables when looking at the aggregative capital intensity relative to traditional lending. Couple that with compounding interest income, high NIM/NOI margins achieved, and effectively nil credit losses, the economics of the RM division are outstanding.
As the growth engine behind HGH it was nice to see RM in such rude health at the 1H FY23 result.
NZ: 24.6% growth in receivables YOY (and up 12.1% on June22), with NOI as a % of average receivables expanding from 2.45% tp 2.68%
AU: 22.8% growth in receivables YOY (and up 12.9% on June22), with NOI as a % of average receivables expanding from 1.72% to 1.75%
But it is important to note that the RBNZ is under going a review of risk weightings of various asset classes, including reverse mortgages, with submissions ended in February. I made a submission. I mentioned this last year but went without notice, even from those +20 post-a-day full timers whose lives revolve meandering through various threads posting noise, rubbish and out of context factoids. Should the risk weightings be increased, the RM business would still be an outstanding one, but would dampen its growth reasonably significantly.
bull....
14-03-2023, 04:19 AM
going to get savaged today ... how are there bond's positioned need a update ?
winner69
14-03-2023, 07:51 AM
KPMG review of NZ banking sector 2022
Banks don’t make excessive profits but Kensington says -
Tough times ahead. Kensington said all the bank chief executives and chief financial officers recognise their organisations have been “making hay”, but that the economy is likely heading into a slowdown or recession.
In previous crises, such as the 1989 share market crash and the global financial crisis (GFC), the NZ economy has generally weathered the first couple of years very well, but it’s been the third and fourth years in which most distress has been felt, he said.
That’s also likely to be true of the covid pandemic.
Lot of stuff in report but some charts/tables show HGH relative performance to others
https://assets.kpmg.com/content/dam/kpmg/nz/pdf/2023/03/2022-banks-fips.pdf
percy
14-03-2023, 08:28 AM
KPMG review of NZ banking sector 2022
Banks don’t make excessive profits but Kensington says -
Tough times ahead. Kensington said all the bank chief executives and chief financial officers recognise their organisations have been “making hay”, but that the economy is likely heading into a slowdown or recession.
In previous crises, such as the 1989 share market crash and the global financial crisis (GFC), the NZ economy has generally weathered the first couple of years very well, but it’s been the third and fourth years in which most distress has been felt, he said.
That’s also likely to be true of the covid pandemic.
Lot of stuff in report but some charts/tables show HGH relative performance to others
https://assets.kpmg.com/content/dam/kpmg/nz/pdf/2023/03/2022-banks-fips.pdf
Thanks for posting the link.
NIM Net interest margin.
Sector average 2.10%
Heartland.........4.59%
bull....
14-03-2023, 08:36 AM
heartland net int margin had a big fall last yr not good when compared to other banks increasing there's
percy
14-03-2023, 08:47 AM
heartland net int margin had a big fall last yr not good when compared to other banks increasing there's
NIM Net interest margin.
Sector average 2.10%
Heartland.........4.59%
HGH's NIM is still over twice the sector average.
The other banks are a country mile behind HGH.Always will be.I got used to it..lol
BlackPeter
14-03-2023, 08:51 AM
SMH
Reverse mortgage demand surges as cost of living hits retirees
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/reverse-mortgage-demand-surges-as-cost-of-living-hits-retirees-20230310-p5cr3z.html
Extract: Jarden analyst Grant Lowe said Australia’s reverse mortgage market had probably been growing because of a “demographic tailwind” and the federal government’s involvement in the sector.
I love demographic tailwinds …..they last for generations
They do, don't they? Just look at the retirement villages ;) . Oops - bad example.
bull....
14-03-2023, 08:58 AM
NIM Net interest margin.
Sector average 2.10%
Heartland.........4.59%
HGH's NIM is still over twice the sector average.
The other banks are a country mile behind HGH.Always will be.I got used to it..lol
your missing the point hgh has always been higher than the banks no argument there , but now it is going backward's ... something has gone wrong ?
percy
14-03-2023, 09:03 AM
your missing the point hgh has always been higher than the banks no argument there , but now it is going backward's ... something has gone wrong ?
Nothing wrong.
Just a slight adjustment to their lending mix.More first mortgages.
Read their presentation.
Heartland’s NIM is expected to stabilise at its current level as Heartland continues to proactively manage portfolio pricing and margin in
competitive markets.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HBL/407457/389620.pdf
bull....
14-03-2023, 09:05 AM
Nothing wrong.
Just a slight adjustment to their lending mix.More first mortgages.
Read their presentation.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HBL/407457/389620.pdf
less profitable mortgages are you saying
those mortgages could generate more on the bottom line. they are all digital so less human interaction compared to the banks. Cant just compare NIM for true performance
Snoopy
14-03-2023, 09:09 AM
heartland net int margin had a big fall last yr not good when compared to other banks increasing their's
Bull, it is times like this that we Heartland shareholders need to remind you that Heartland is not really a bank. All of Heartland's 'banking' is done via Westpac's banking licence. So don't worry, Westpac has got us covered. Heartland is merely a finance company with a thin layer of bank marketing veneer pasted over the top of it. To use a painting and panel beating analogy, Heartland is what you call a 'wrap bank'.
Notice Heartland have gone very quiet on the 'fintech' angle as well, as such lenders crash overseas. Heartland are even going after regular mortgages to show how 'responsible' and 'conservative' they are. Latest reporting shows a big decrease in their capital allocation to fintech (or was that just the 'marking to market' of their Harmoney stake?).
Anyway far bigger things to worry about in NZ, like the collapse of the health system and the re-emergence of third world diseases. Even Heartland getting in on the act. It is a long time since a death of Ricketts has made mainstream news.
SNOOPY
less profitable mortgages are you saying
Personnel lending via harmoney went into run off. It was HGH highest NIM % contributor, but given HGH was actually doing P2P lending through it (before harmoney disc P2P) it also had the highest credit losses. That dropping away accounts for a large proportion of the drop in FY22 NIM.
Ive always advocated NLM margin as the better one (NIM less incurred credit losses) as it arguably far more relevant and somewhat adjusts for the mix of risk.
The credit quality of receivables has improved significantly over the last 5 years.
percy
14-03-2023, 09:13 AM
less profitable mortgages are you saying
Yes.....................
Fiordland Moose's posts better explains HGH's strategy.
bull....
14-03-2023, 09:15 AM
Bull, it is times like this that we Heartland shareholders need to remind you that Heartland is not really a bank. All of Heartland's 'banking' is done via Westpac's banking licence. So don't worry, Westpac has got us covered. Heartland is merely a finance company with a thin layer of bank marketing veneer pasted over the top of it. To use a painting and panel beating analogy, Heartland is what you call a 'wrap bank'.
Notice Heartland have gone very quiet on the 'fintech' angle as well, as such lenders crash overseas. Heartland are even going after regular mortgages to show how 'responsible' and 'conservative' they are. Latest reporting shows a big decrease in their capital allocation to fintech (or was that just the 'marking to market' of their Harmoney stake?).
Anyway far bigger things to worry about in NZ, like the collapse of the health system and the re-emergence of third world diseases. Even Heartland getting in on the act. It is a long time since a death of Ricketts has made mainstream news.
SNOOPY
can i remind you too hgh brought challenger bank in aus a bank that no one has been able to make profitable.
alokdhir
14-03-2023, 09:23 AM
Reading all above posts including hint of expected SP by W69 with keen interest ....maybe my original expectations will come true and Mike will be happy to see SP below $ 1.53 which he was so craving for ....
Big question remains which the holders and true inside knowledge people like Percy/ FM shud advise on to non holders ....Will it be good buy for LT around that SP or we people shud stay away and outside only ....unbiased views will be very helpful please
bull....
14-03-2023, 09:25 AM
Personnel lending via harmoney went into run off. It was HGH highest NIM % contributor, but given HGH was actually doing P2P lending through it (before harmoney disc P2P) it also had the highest credit losses. That dropping away accounts for a large proportion of the drop in FY22 NIM.
Ive always advocated NLM margin as the better one (NIM less incurred credit losses) as it arguably far more relevant and somewhat adjusts for the mix of risk.
The credit quality of receivables has improved significantly over the last 5 years.
but why has nim been declining for years ? even in there presentation the squiggly line has a downtrend look too it
KPMG review of NZ banking sector 2022
Banks don’t make excessive profits but Kensington says -
Tough times ahead. Kensington said all the bank chief executives and chief financial officers recognise their organisations have been “making hay”, but that the economy is likely heading into a slowdown or recession.
In previous crises, such as the 1989 share market crash and the global financial crisis (GFC), the NZ economy has generally weathered the first couple of years very well, but it’s been the third and fourth years in which most distress has been felt, he said.
That’s also likely to be true of the covid pandemic.
Lot of stuff in report but some charts/tables show HGH relative performance to others
https://assets.kpmg.com/content/dam/kpmg/nz/pdf/2023/03/2022-banks-fips.pdf
Wonder how the local Fed Reserve of Adrian Orrsome's RB empire is holding up ? :)
Robbo and Orrsome have have been quiet of late .. finding the readies for Flood Relief Support
a Budget and potential turbulence with hyped interest rates might be causing a few headaches
and differences of opinion :)
At least $2 bills were in the piggy bank for some bene rises and a few other things ..
Snoopy
14-03-2023, 09:26 AM
Can I remind you too hgh brought challenger bank in aus a bank that no one has been able to make profitable.
Well you know how those Aussies just love kiwi companies crossing the ditch and telling them 'we know better'. There are a long list of kiwi corporates that have gone to Australia and come back with their figurative 'tails between their legs' following such a strategy. Challenger Bank gives Heartland a 'truly Australian face'. And you can't say that Heartland isn't hiding the fact that, even so, it won't be a walkover: 'Challenger' in this context is both a noun and an adjective.
SNOOPY
percy
14-03-2023, 09:29 AM
can i remind you too hgh brought challenger bank in aus a bank that no one has been able to make profitable.
The remainder of the 2023 calendar year will be significant for Heartland as it progresses towards the completion of the acquisition of Challenger
Bank, therefore becoming an ADI in Australia, and realises the benefits this will provide its existing Australian businesses Heartland Finance and
StockCo Australia – as well as future product opportunities.
So HGH are looking for the same on going benefits from buying Challenger Bank, as they are achieving by having a banking licence for Heartland Bank.ie cheaper cost of funding.Results of this will be HGH maintaining a NIM over double the sector average.
winner69
14-03-2023, 09:30 AM
Thanks for posting the link.
NIM Net interest margin.
Sector average 2.10%
Heartland.........4.59%
That 4.59% is for Heartland Bank …not Heartland Group
If Group NIM is about 4% does that mean the other stuff not in Heartland (mainly Oz I assume) has a NIM of about 3.5%
percy
14-03-2023, 09:38 AM
That 4.59% is for Heartland Bank …not Heartland Group
If Group NIM is about 4% does that mean the other stuff not in Heartland (mainly Oz I assume) has a NIM of about 3.5%
Group...
Page 41 recent presentation
Reported NIM 3.97% 4.30% (34 bps)
Underlying NIM 4.02% 4.30% (29 bps)
winner69
14-03-2023, 09:43 AM
Group...
Page 41 recent presentation
Reported NIM 3.97% 4.30% (34 bps)
Underlying NIM 4.02% 4.30% (29 bps)
Yes …if Bank NIM close to 4.5% then non Bank NIM must be less than 4% ….maybe 3.5%
winner69
14-03-2023, 09:45 AM
Nobody has ever explained to me why the outrageously above average NIM results in a below average ROE
Reading all above posts including hint of expected SP by W69 with keen interest ....maybe my original expectations will come true and Mike will be happy to see SP below $ 1.53 which he was so craving for ....
Big question remains which the holders and true inside knowledge people like Percy/ FM shud advise on to non holders ....Will it be good buy for LT around that SP or we people shud stay away and outside only ....unbiased views will be very helpful please
First rule of fightclub - don’t provide financial advice lol.
EDIT: "insider" wash your mouth out lol - never worked in the banking sector - just accumulated some knowledge over the years as the investment grew
Nobody has ever explained to me why atheism outrageously above average NIM results in a below average ROE
atheism? is Heartland an atheist bank?
Nobody has ever explained to me why atheism outrageously above average NIM results in a below average ROE
Been there, answered that, last year, when you said the same thing.
"Those metrics are for the licensed subsidiary operations only. IE, ANZ new zealand not the the consolidated group operations. Heartland does have superior consolidated group returns on equity than almost all the australasian banks (bar CBA) for FY22 forecast. This implies that the far larger australian operations of the big banks are substantially less profitable than in NZ, and the sheer weight of the aussie operations drag down the reported group ROEs. So while HGH as a consolidated group might generate superior ROEs than the consolidated operations of the big aussie banks, and be rewarded by trading at higher price to books as a result, the aussie subsidiaries actually operate more efficiently than heartland bank NZ itself."
So for the consolidated group - you know, the thing you buy a share in a pays you a dividend, HGH has above average ROEs.
Reading all above posts including hint of expected SP by W69 with keen interest ....maybe my original expectations will come true and Mike will be happy to see SP below $ 1.53 which he was so craving for ....
Big question remains which the holders and true inside knowledge people like Percy/ FM shud advise on to non holders ....Will it be good buy for LT around that SP or we people shud stay away and outside only ....unbiased views will be very helpful please
I'm just a noob but the way I see it is the book value per share grows about 4.2% per year. Sometimes it trades 1x book value and sometimes 1.5x. On average about 1.25x book value....
If you wanted a long term strategy you could accumulate shares as close to book value as possible and maybe even trim when it gets up around 1.5x book value...
On your journey of buying and building a position your capital should increase on average 4.2% per year and you will collect a nice reliable dividend. Currently that is over 9%!
I'm just a noob but the way I see it is the book value per share grows about 4.2% per year. Sometimes it trades 1x book value and sometimes 1.5x. On average about 1.25x book value....
If you wanted a long term strategy you could accumulate shares as close to book value as possible and maybe even trim when it gets up around 1.5x book value...
On your journey of buying and building a position your capital should increase on average 4.2% per year and you will collect a nice reliable dividend. Currently that is over 9%!
rawz I'd say you are anything but a noob and you've got a v good nose for the sector
percy
14-03-2023, 10:29 AM
Reading all above posts including hint of expected SP by W69 with keen interest ....maybe my original expectations will come true and Mike will be happy to see SP below $ 1.53 which he was so craving for ....
Big question remains which the holders and true inside knowledge people like Percy/ FM shud advise on to non holders ....Will it be good buy for LT around that SP or we people shud stay away and outside only ....unbiased views will be very helpful please
I am a retired bookseller. Yes the sharemarket has been my hobbie for over 50 years.
I rely on my own research.
I only share my thoughts here..Never try to offer any advice.
I expect people reading my thoughts to make their own minds up,after doing their own research.
I have made ever mistake there is possible to make.Still make a few,but usually wake up to them pretty quickly.
HGH I have been a holder since day one.
Currently I am impressed by HGH's moves to strengthen and grow their Australian operations.Makes good sense to me.
whatsup
14-03-2023, 10:43 AM
I am a retired bookseller. Yes the sharemarket has been my hobbie for over 50 years.
I rely on my own research.
I only share my thoughts here..Never try to offer any advice.
I expect people reading my thoughts to make their own minds up,after doing their own research.
I have made ever mistake there is possible to make.Still make a few,but usually wake up to them pretty quickly.
HGH I have been a holder since day one.
Currently I am impressed by HGH's moves to strengthen and grow their Australian operations.Makes good sense to me.
P Well said, dont take any notice of nay sayers.
justakiwi
14-03-2023, 10:57 AM
Percy, this is one of the things I love about you. You never profess to be anything other than who you are, you are down to earth and humble, and you are one of the wisest people I know.
This seems like an ideal moment to publicly thank you for your contributions to these forums, but more importantly, for your friendship and the unfailing, infinitely patient, encouragement and support you give me behind the scenes.
Some here could benefit from taking a leaf out of your book (pun intended ;))
I am a retired bookseller. Yes the sharemarket has been my hobbie for over 50 years.
I rely on my own research.
I only share my thoughts here..Never try to offer any advice.
I expect people reading my thoughts to make their own minds up,after doing their own research.
I have made ever mistake there is possible to make.Still make a few,but usually wake up to them pretty quickly.
HGH I have been a holder since day one.
Currently I am impressed by HGH's moves to strengthen and grow their Australian operations.Makes good sense to me.
RupertBear
14-03-2023, 11:11 AM
Percy, this is one of the things I love about you. You never profess to be anything other than who you are, you are down to earth and humble, and you are one of the wisest people I know.
This seems like an ideal moment to publicly thank you for your contributions to these forums, but more importantly, for the unfailing, infinitely patient, encouragement and support you give me behind the scenes.
Some here could benefit from taking a leaf out of your book (pun intended ;))
I whole heartedly agree. One of the most decent honest posters on here, he has unselfishly shared his opinion with us on here and with some of us behind the scenes. He is a breath of fresh air and I am immensely grateful I have gotten to know him. One of life’s treasures :)
whatsup
14-03-2023, 11:14 AM
Percy, this is one of the things I love about you. You never profess to be anything other than who you are, you are down to earth and humble, and you are one of the wisest people I know.
This seems like an ideal moment to publicly thank you for your contributions to these forums, but more importantly, for the unfailing, infinitely patient, encouragement and support you give me behind the scenes.
Some here could benefit from taking a leaf out of your book (pun intended ;))
and a Ch-Cher to boot !!
Percy, this is one of the things I love about you. You never profess to be anything other than who you are, you are down to earth and humble, and you are one of the wisest people I know.
This seems like an ideal moment to publicly thank you for your contributions to these forums, but more importantly, for your friendship and the unfailing, infinitely patient, encouragement and support you give me behind the scenes.
Some here could benefit from taking a leaf out of your book (pun intended ;))
Totally agree with you
Snoopy
14-03-2023, 11:26 AM
I am a retired bookseller. Yes the sharemarket has been my hobbie for over 50 years.
I rely on my own research.
I only share my thoughts here..Never try to offer any advice.
I expect people reading my thoughts to make their own minds up,after doing their own research.
I have made every mistake there is possible to make.Still make a few,but usually wake up to them pretty quickly.
HGH I have been a holder since day one.
Currently I am impressed by HGH's moves to strengthen and grow their Australian operations.Makes good sense to me.
Great story but let's not gild the tale above its station. You mean held it since day one except for that little wobble around the time Covid struck? However, to your great credit you realised your mistake and bought back in, once the resilience of Jeff and his team came to light.
SNOOPY
percy
14-03-2023, 12:48 PM
Great story but let's not gild the tale above its station. You mean held it since day one except for that little wobble around the time Covid struck? However, to your great credit you realised your mistake and bought back in, once the resilience of Jeff and his team came to light.
SNOOPY
Correct......
And added more since.
winner69
14-03-2023, 12:54 PM
Correct......
And added more since.
Good trading percy ;);)
percy
14-03-2023, 12:57 PM
going to get savaged today ... how are there bond's positioned need a update ?
So far today.
ANZ down 3.5%
WBC down 2.8%
HGH Up 1.2%
Onemootpoint
14-03-2023, 06:42 PM
The day’s high was on very, very low volume though; probably Sharesies. Ended a bit down, but not a train wreck. Not today in anycase.
percy
15-03-2023, 07:48 AM
I guess we will follow the USA.
Yahoo Finance headlines.
"Bank stocks rally in sharp reversal from previous session"
May have been a bit like a Briscoes' one day sale.?
I guess we will follow the USA.
Yahoo Finance headlines.
"Bank stocks rally in sharp reversal from previous session"
May have been a bit like a Briscoes' one day sale.?
I hope not - another pounding would be ideal for the DRP from which the strike price will be determined after COB today
percy
15-03-2023, 10:11 AM
I hope not - another pounding would be ideal for the DRP from which the strike price will be determined after COB today
Ha ha..............lol.
DRP strike price should be ~$1.6388 (inclusive of the 2% discount to the 5 day VWAP post ex date), w/ nil brokerage.
winner69
16-03-2023, 09:43 AM
DRP strike price should be ~$1.6388 (inclusive of the 2% discount to the 5 day VWAP post ex date), w/ nil brokerage.
$1.63699813 per share.
Your number pretty close .... they must calculate it differently
Hope they worth more than this in a months time
Old mate
16-03-2023, 09:49 AM
Could be worth less than this by end off today:mellow:
thegreatestben
16-03-2023, 11:56 AM
On sale today - I topped up.
X-men
16-03-2023, 12:19 PM
Not a good time to buy in... possible can drop to $1.30-1.40 in 6 months time...
Saudi bank refused to back Credit suisse and the world banking sector is very vulnerable
Sideshow Bob
16-03-2023, 12:32 PM
Price alert just pinged.....randomly set up at $1.60....
percy
16-03-2023, 12:55 PM
It's at times like this we think of the simple definition of "A Long Term Hold" :
A short term trade that did not work out........lol
It's at times like this we think of the simple definition of "A Long Term Hold" :
A short term trade that did not work out........lol
nicely put Percy :)
It's at times like this we think of the simple definition of "A Long Term Hold" :
A short term trade that did not work out........lol
LOL percy if you started a buffet style newsletter, i'd subscribe
justakiwi
16-03-2023, 01:24 PM
I second that! :t_up:
LOL percy if you started a buffet style newsletter, i'd subscribe
thegreatestben
16-03-2023, 01:32 PM
Yet to regret any HGH purchases I've made!
Yet to sell any either. I'm always please to see the same sensible voices supporting HGH when times are tough.
iceman
16-03-2023, 02:21 PM
Yet to regret any HGH purchases I've made!
Yet to sell any either. I'm always please to see the same sensible voices supporting HGH when times are tough.
It has been a bit of a rollercoaster ride over the years (with 3 or 4 different names for the stock) with several sharp falls along the way but overall it has been an outstanding investment with both a healthy capital gain and good yield. The current fall is no different to others before it and certainly is no reason at all to sell this stock, in my view, because of it. I sold a few recently but am more likely to put that money back in given the current price.
winner69
16-03-2023, 02:43 PM
I remember years ago buying some Heartland shares at 98 cents ……bought at the high at the time.
Of course share price fell
I got the bragging rights to being one of a few punters who could claim to have lost money buying Heartland …..lasted a month or so but huge relief when share price ended up going over 98 cents
Deej5
16-03-2023, 03:08 PM
10 years ago, as a newbie and a small inheritance I first looked at the share market. Warren Buffet said "invest in banks" so I did. I bought 10k of Heartland shares (HBL at that time) at 88c and have never since sold or added. It has just been sitting in my portfolio delivering a terrific return every year despite the ups and downs of the share price. Have faith!
bull....
16-03-2023, 03:18 PM
stagflation not good for hgh ... slow timber
whatsup
17-03-2023, 09:41 AM
Ricketts has passed away
Was pretty dedicated to Heartland …..even had to put up with being called a ‘an old grey haired fuddy duddy’ by a shareholder at a ASM
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HGH/408202/390539.pdf
Does anybody know is Geoff R was a S Her in Harmony ?
Does anybody know is Geoff R was a S Her in Harmony ?
I doubt it
But he did own 14.9 million shares in HGH
percy
17-03-2023, 01:50 PM
Wife gave me some money to invest this morning..
Bought her more HGH at $1.62.
alokdhir
17-03-2023, 09:43 PM
Wife gave me some money to invest this morning..
Bought her more HGH at $1.62.
She will thank u soon ....maybe in 6-9 months the way things going ....then u can keep reminding her this good deed ...lol :t_up:
HMY must be getting towards to manageable chomp for HGH to take out of circulation
with AU $40 mil Market Cap over on ASX ..
Winner, Percy & the band of loyals wont mind a bit if a small Cap Raise is needed to help
get the deal done :)
HMY must be getting towards to manageable chomp for HGH to take out of circulation
with AU $40 mil Market Cap over on ASX ..
Winner, Percy & the band of loyals wont mind a bit if a small Cap Raise is needed to help
get the deal done :)
That wouldn't happen (& nor would I want that to happen) for a plethora of reasons.
percy
18-03-2023, 11:23 AM
https://sendy.tarawera.co.nz/l/J6oLVth2f3f6IXNYvUBQEg/XVUCdjryAwsBdC1DAeCDJQ/gcWFQ8t41G4Fh892KuHc5Afw
winner69
22-03-2023, 09:31 AM
Global dairy prices down again overnight auction
Not a good sign for HGH share price in a month or so
BlackPeter
22-03-2023, 09:43 AM
Global dairy prices down again overnight auction
Not a good sign for HGH share price in a month or so
Great news!
Dairy prices contribute significantly to bread and butter issues ... if they drop, inflation turns into (dairy-) deflation and our very own reserve bank might stop cranking up interest rates (remember - butter will get cheaper), which would be good for all stocks.
Long may dairy price deflation continue - and may it be shared by energy price deflation!
If prices down and stocks up, HGH will be fine as well.
justakiwi
22-03-2023, 10:32 AM
Great news for everyone but the dairy farmer, who is working 7 days a week, often for months without a day off - to support his family, and provide us with our "cheaper" butter.
Great news!
Dairy prices contribute significantly to bread and butter issues ... if they drop, inflation turns into (dairy-) deflation and our very own reserve bank might stop cranking up interest rates (remember - butter will get cheaper), which would be good for all stocks.
Long may dairy price deflation continue - and may it be shared by energy price deflation!
If prices down and stocks up, HGH will be fine as well.
ronaldson
22-03-2023, 10:39 AM
Never mind. Dividend paid today. Pity the DRP price is above current market by over 3c. But ongoing yield is good even so, hence not complaining.
iceman
22-03-2023, 11:56 AM
Great news for everyone but the dairy farmer, who is working 7 days a week, often for months without a day off - to support his family, and provide us with our "cheaper" butter.
Not to mention contributing to much of our exports. Price falls make our awful current account deficit even worse, but HGH will just plod along nicely as they always have done :-)
BlackPeter
22-03-2023, 12:27 PM
Great news for everyone but the dairy farmer, who is working 7 days a week, often for months without a day off - to support his family, and provide us with our "cheaper" butter.
I guess in every bit of news there are winners and losers.
Looking at NZ farmers - I've seen some hardworking farmers you describe, but I've seen as well farmers who don't care for the environment, who don't care for their animals and who clearly don't care for their domestic customers. I have seen farmers who subdivide and sell the farm (and this is how they really get rich) to live a lavish lifestyle in Golden Bay. I could give you names.
I do feel for hardworking people who care for their community. These are some of the farmers but clearly not all.
If you compare however the prices of agricultural products around the world, then you see that all NZ consumers get fleeced. Not just by farmers, but as well by farmers. We get the lower quality products for premium prices. On the other hand do they sell their premium products abroad - often cheaper than in NZ. Have not seen any other country where the farming community cares so little about the local population.
I do care about consumers. Hard working for their families and exploited by a bunch of greedy farmers and traders.
Good to get this off the chest ... and now we should probably talk again about HGH. Not that dependant on dairy prices (despite the funny correlation, but I think long term they will benefit from more realistic food prices in NZ. We all will.
Dairy farmers are so well off its not even funny. Dont cry for your farmer. Cry for the share milker. Dairy farmers are all multi millionaires
justakiwi
22-03-2023, 01:29 PM
That is one hell of a generalisation, and the general go-to from "townies" who don't understand the industry. A heck of a lot of dairy farmers are in debt up to their eyeballs.
Speaking as the townie mother of a contract milker.
Dairy farmers are so well off its not even funny. Dont cry for your farmer. Cry for the share milker. Dairy farmers are all multi millionaires
percy
22-03-2023, 03:49 PM
I guess in every bit of news there are winners and losers.
Looking at NZ farmers - I've seen some hardworking farmers you describe, but I've seen as well farmers who don't care for the environment, who don't care for their animals and who clearly don't care for their domestic customers. I have seen farmers who subdivide and sell the farm (and this is how they really get rich) to live a lavish lifestyle in Golden Bay. I could give you names.
I do feel for hardworking people who care for their community. These are some of the farmers but clearly not all.
If you compare however the prices of agricultural products around the world, then you see that all NZ consumers get fleeced. Not just by farmers, but as well by farmers. We get the lower quality products for premium prices. On the other hand do they sell their premium products abroad - often cheaper than in NZ. Have not seen any other country where the farming community cares so little about the local population.
I do care about consumers. Hard working for their families and exploited by a bunch of greedy farmers and traders.
Good to get this off the chest ... and now we should probably talk again about HGH. Not that dependant on dairy prices (despite the funny correlation, but I think long term they will benefit from more realistic food prices in NZ. We all will.
New Zealand farmers receive the world price for their products with no subsidies or other payments. New Zealand farmers must also compete on international markets, often against heavily subsidised competitors.
mike2020
22-03-2023, 04:04 PM
I used to be a Fonterra farmer, we put money into the community through schools and scholarships and the factory staff often seemed to have a better life and income than a lot of us did (I personally know staff who hate the company but will stay for life and brag about the pension scheme while enjoying their months of holidays). It is the one share I have NO regret about selling. Even the local product was often sold below international market and yet I still witnessed all the complaining about how much we were fleecing the public. It isn't easy being a farmer these days. Backbone of the nation when I was first starting out, wouldn't be in a hurry to tell anyone what I did towards the end.
clearasmud
22-03-2023, 05:00 PM
I hope you made your fortune but doesn't sound like it
BlackPeter
22-03-2023, 05:37 PM
New Zealand farmers receive the world price for their products with no subsidies or other payments. New Zealand farmers must also compete on international markets, often against heavily subsidised competitors.
Well, yes and no. They normally don't get money from the government (though sometimes they do - e.g. disaster relief), but on the other hand we always seem to have governments (no matter which couleur) which tend to ignore many of the big polluters and which allow them (e.g. by ignoring science and by underfunding control measures) to keep polluting our country with substances which are (for good reasons) already banned in many other countries. Our farmers are subsidized ... just not with money, but they have instead the licence to destroy our health and our environment. They are as well subsidized by our government paying for and maintaining overseas the "green NZ" fairy tale.
Again - there are good and bad farmers (here and everywhere else), but I certainly don't see our farmers as a group disadvantaged to their competitors. No need to pity our farmers in NZ as a matter of course. If it would be harder for them to produce here than for others to produce there, they would have already moved on to greener pastures.
Sorry for hijacking the thread, but this had to be said. Maybe we need a separate thread to discuss the sorry state of our environment caused by all sorts of bad NZ farming practises and how some of our farmers have no reluctance at all to destroy common goods (like healthy air, soil and water) to maximise their personal profits.
justakiwi
22-03-2023, 05:52 PM
Deleted ..................................................
Sorry for hijacking the thread, but this had to be said. Maybe we need a separate thread to discuss the sorry state of our environment caused by all sorts of bad NZ farming practises and how some of our farmers have no reluctance at all to destroy common goods (like healthy air, soil and water) to maximise their personal profits.
percy
22-03-2023, 06:27 PM
my post on Unlisted Silver Fern Farms thread.
NZ red meat exporters back Beef + Lamb New Zealand’s Kiwis Backing Farmers campaign
New Zealand’s red meat processing and exporting sector is supporting the Kiwis Backing Farmers campaign, saying the only sustainable way for the Government to deliver better outcomes for the environment and the economy is to work with farmers.
The campaign, spearheaded by Beef + Lamb New Zealand and rural advocacy group 50 Shades of Green, aims to highlight the cumulative effects of successive policies, such as the wholesale conversion of productive sheep and beef farms into carbon farms, on rural communities.
“New Zealand’s sheep and beef farmers are already among the most carbon efficient and environmentally sustainable producers of red meat in the world,” said Sirma Karapeeva, chief executive of the Meat Industry Association.
“However, successive waves of new regulation in areas such as freshwater, biodiversity and carbon farming are putting the sheep and beef farmers’ status as champions for the environment at risk.
“Many of these regulations could be much better aligned with on-farm practice, and collectively add unnecessary costs on farmers at a time when inflation and volatile global markets are putting their operations under extreme pressure.”
Ms Karapeeva says the meat processing sector is also concerned about the lack of limits on fossil fuel emitters offsetting their emissions by planting trees on productive land.
“This risks pushing more land into carbon forestry, which will have long-term consequences for the viability of rural communities and the New Zealand economy as a whole.
“We all have a deep interest in creating a cleaner, greener environment and a thriving economy, which is why we’re calling on the Government to work with sheep and beef farmers to achieve this.”
“As it stands, the red meat sector generates almost $12 billion in earnings from exports to more than 100 countries and employs 92,000 people, and by working together we can grow this in a sustainable way.”
Maybe we need a separate thread to discuss the sorry state of our environment caused by all sorts of bad NZ farming practises ....
Lol You're doing to this thread what you say farmers are doing to the environment.
Not a good time to buy in... possible can drop to $1.30-1.40 in 6 months time...
Saudi bank refused to back Credit suisse and the world banking sector is very vulnerable
Sitting and waiting. I think this might happen
bull....
23-03-2023, 02:46 PM
under 1.50 soon ? people obviously noy happy about the bad nim
thegreatestben
23-03-2023, 02:49 PM
Dividend converted into shares at $1.50 for me, will continue to add.
Nothing to do with NIM - HGH just following market trends on banks.
Dividend converted into shares at $1.50 for me, will continue to add.
Nothing to do with NIM - HGH just following market trends on banks.
I agree a perfect opportunity to top up. But in this climate I want bargains.
mike2020
23-03-2023, 04:15 PM
In ye olde days a hound would bark at $1.40 like it was a blood moon. Now we have had dilution and there was talk of a need for more capital in the future. What say the people? $1.25? Even I'd bark at that.
Sub $1.50 by the looks. Let’s see what tomorrow brings. I’m presuming a little bounce
Edited: Ok $1.50 but still heading south for a while but I do see that little bounce happening
Just feel like it’s going to go under book value so no point looking until under $1.44
bull....
24-03-2023, 10:33 AM
does hgh have any of these
RBNZ says NZ banks' Additional Tier 1 capital bonds are 'going-concern capital' & may be subject to loss if the bank issuer gets into serious trouble
https://www.interest.co.nz/banking/120455/rbnz-says-nz-banks-additional-tier-1-capital-bonds-are-going-concern-capital-may-be
alokdhir
24-03-2023, 11:09 AM
does hgh have any of these
RBNZ says NZ banks' Additional Tier 1 capital bonds are 'going-concern capital' & may be subject to loss if the bank issuer gets into serious trouble
https://www.interest.co.nz/banking/120455/rbnz-says-nz-banks-additional-tier-1-capital-bonds-are-going-concern-capital-may-be
Holders of CoCo Bonds shud be scared not issuers or equity holders ...as new precedent has been set by Swiss by jumping equity holders over Bond holders ...this is making holders of AT1 bonds nervous like hell !!!
does hgh have any of these
RBNZ says NZ banks' Additional Tier 1 capital bonds are 'going-concern capital' & may be subject to loss if the bank issuer gets into serious trouble
https://www.interest.co.nz/banking/120455/rbnz-says-nz-banks-additional-tier-1-capital-bonds-are-going-concern-capital-may-be
No - all capital is Tier 1 CET1 capital. No AD1 or tier 2 capital.
HBL is/was considering an issue of tier 2 subordinated notes. Different type of instrument to AD1 CoCos.
Natural next question be how CS’ tier 2 notes fared in its merger with UBS. There was no impact.
https://www.bondsupermart.com/bsm/article-detail/what-will-happen-to-credit-suisse-bonds-after-the-merger-with-ubs-RCMS_268680
I would not be surprised to see the tier 2 note issue differed. Note very little is known about the fine print of the mooted T2 subnote issue as nothing has been released nor the offer launched.
percy
24-03-2023, 11:56 AM
No - all capital is Tier 1 CET1 capital. No AD1 or tier 2 capital.
HBL is/was considering an issue of tier 2 subordinated notes. Different type of instrument to AD1 CoCos.
Natural next question be how CS’ tier 2 notes fared in its merger with UBS. There was no impact.
https://www.bondsupermart.com/bsm/article-detail/what-will-happen-to-credit-suisse-bonds-after-the-merger-with-ubs-RCMS_268680
I would not be surprised to see the tier 2 note issue differed. Note very little is known about the fine print of the mooted T2 subnote issue as nothing has been released nor the offer launched.
Thanks for your post.
Anyone think there could be a slow bank run from HGH to ANZ, BNZ, ASB or Westpac.
Similar to the US regional state banks seeing some deposit flight to Citi, Bank of America etc.
I.e move your deposits to the ‘too big to fail banks’
justakiwi
26-03-2023, 01:11 PM
Already happening unfortunately, although who knows to what extent.
Anyone think there could be a slow bank run from HGH to ANZ, BNZ, ASB or Westpac.
Similar to the US regional state banks seeing some deposit flight to Citi, Bank of America etc.
I.e move your deposits to the ‘too big to fail banks’
Heartland have proved very adept at raising deposits.
For each of the last four sequential quarterly growth rates in net deposits, HBL has grown deposits far in excess of industry growth rates, and has among the highest deposit growth rates in NZ.
The most recent available quarter saw deposits across all deposit takes grow 2.3%, HBL was 1.6x that 3.7%.
HBL's deposit rates remain sharp and note the 'shareholder' deposit offer has recently been sent out.
14522
Hey FM, it will be interesting if HBL can continue this trend in current banking industry climate
percy
26-03-2023, 07:34 PM
Page 32 Heartland presentation 28/02/2023
Heartland Group
Heartland increased borrowings by $158.3 million (2.6%) to $6,329.1 million.
New Zealand
• Heartland Bank increased borrowings by $249.7 million (5.7%) to $4,596.3 million.
‒ Deposits grew $480.5 million (13.4%) to $4,077.7 million, driven by competitive pricing on
targeted products, including Heartland’s Notice Saver offerings which both received Canstar
New Zealand recognition in the half.2
‒ In Q1 of FY2023, Heartland Bank experienced the highest growth rate in retail deposits of all
main and domestic banks in NZ.1
‒ Other borrowings decreased by $230.8 million (30.8%), largely due to the maturity of $150
million retail bond, as well as the amount drawn down in Heartland Bank’s committed auto
warehouse facility decreasing by $76.6 million.
• Total liquidity strengthened, increasing by $146.9 million (23.4%) to $774.8 million.
• Heartland Bank holds liquidity well in excess of regulatory minimums and maintains strong
regulatory liquidity ratios.
clearasmud
26-03-2023, 08:12 PM
liquidity nearly equal to on call deposits- that's a very good bank.
But how robust is their loan book I wonder?
percy
26-03-2023, 08:45 PM
To any one who has any concerns about Heartland Bank or Heartland Group ,I think reading HGH's 28th February presentation will find it interesting,and informative as well as being reassuring. Here is the link.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HBL/407457/389620.pdf
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