OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[justakiwi]

The grass is always greener on the other side. NZ is still a significantly safer place to live than most of the rest of the world.

As for our elderly folk, nobody should be surprised that they will need higher levels of care in the future. The longer we live, the more health issues we will probably experience, and we will require additional care in the future. It’s not rocket science. But it is not unique to NZ. It is a global concern that those working in the sector have anticipated for years. Unfortunately no government in this country has done any planning for how best to manage it. NO government. From what I can tell from information available currently, no political party has any policy pertaining to aged care or the RV sector, which is really disappointing.


I think you'll find most of us are planning our exits accordingly. NZ is no longer a safe place to live, the elderly are going to continue needing more and more public hospital resources.

[ronaldson]

Article in NZ Herald today that a 97 bed Ellerslie, Auckland, Catholic Rest Home losing $100k per month is set to close in 3 months, the delay being only "to facilitate the careful and considered reaccommodation of our residents and redeployment of staff ".

Only 72 beds are currently occupied because staffing levels had dropped so much. All those hospital level patients, many with dementia, have to find alternative accommodation in the lead up to Christmas, in an already critically stressed aged care sector.

Yet another announcement that tells a tale regarding an abject failure in Government policy. I imagine the staff will be snapped up, but at least some of the relatives of the patients will encounter major difficulties and frustration in placing their loved one in alternative care.

Of course, the existing site will be worth megabucks so the present capital investment will be easily redeployed, but not likely into aged care!

[mike2020]

That looks significant. $250 PW PP give or take. I would say chronic underfunding. At least GR won't be awake all night worrying about the RVs making a profit.

[Rawz]

80% full and it that catholic rest home is losing $100k a month? yes that is indeed underfunded. shocking what this government is doing in the sector

[Bjauck]

80% full and it that catholic rest home is losing $100k a month? yes that is indeed underfunded. shocking what this government is doing in the sector
If they fully funded the sector, and made it profitable enough to appeal to providers without the need for cross-subsidies from the ORA side of things, who would end up paying for that?

[Rawz]

If they fully funded the sector, and made it profitable enough to appeal to providers without the need for cross-subsidies from the ORA side of things, who would pay for that?

Not sure what you mean but imo a business running at 80% occupancy shouldnt be loss making. the model doesnt work aye

[Bjauck]

Not sure what you mean but imo a business running at 80% occupancy shouldnt be loss making. the model doesnt work aye So, Either private paying residents or the taxpayers need to pay a lot more to providers to compete with Ozzie to attract and keep staff from overseas to look after the beds while also making a profit?

[Rawz]

So, Either private paying residents or the taxpayers need to pay a lot more to providers to compete with Ozzie to attract and keep staff from overseas to look after the beds while also making a profit?

so this village had enough staff to keep occupancy at 80%

Why does the business model not work at 80% occupancy..? that's ridiculous.

our nurses, Dr's, teachers need to be paid fairly compared to Aus, UK etc. Yes that falls to the government.

[justakiwi]

What you have to understand is that these not for profit facilities, generally have no other income generating arm, as the RVs do. They are solely dependent on the government subsidy for those residents who qualify, plus the income from private paying residents, who do not. Some fundraising and often investment income (many of these organisations have received/receive very generous "bequeaths" from members of the community when they die).

This is why, I have often expressed the opinion, that not for profits are no longer the right model for aged care. Increased demand for care, higher care needs, a pending tsunami of people with dementia, and drug and alcohol issues (today's addicts will be tomorrow's "old folk"), means these facilities simply cannot continue to effectively provide this service. Interestingly, the organisation I work for, has recently developed an unused area of one of their aged care facilities, into supported living apartments. Nowhere near on a par with our RV apartments, but it is very clear that they have done this to create an additional income stream. But it's not something they can sustain on any significant level.

Not for profits cannot provide the same level of service. Everything becomes about money. I can see it in my own work situation. It does my head in. On a daily basis.

Right now, I think the NFP aged care providers need to give it up. Obviously this can't happen overnight as residents need an alternative, but over the next 10-15 years, I would like to see all aged care provision, go to the RV companies. Yes, they will need (and deserve) better government financial support, but the market for care, dementia care, hospital level care, and geriatric drug and alcohol residential care - is going to be freaking huge, and a significant proportion of elderly requiring this, will not be able to pay for it themselves. Governments - it doesn't matter which one - will have to address this, and they will have to work with the RVs to come up with a strategy for the future that is doable and sustainable. And they need to get started on that now. It is something they should have been working on ten years ago. But they both chose to sweep it under the carpet and adopt an "out of sight out of mind" mentality. That is now coming back to bite them on the bum.

OCA is still, in my view, streets ahead of the others in terms of their understanding of the situation, and if they play their cards right, they will have the future edge once the government of the day sorts their **** out.


80% full and it that catholic rest home is losing $100k a month? yes that is indeed underfunded. shocking what this government is doing in the sector

[Rawz]

Now is the best time to buy into the retirement stocks. because it is the worst time for them- falling property prices and underfunded care

[Bjauck]

so this village had enough staff to keep occupancy at 80%

Why does the business model not work at 80% occupancy..? that's ridiculous.

our nurses, Dr's, teachers need to be paid fairly compared to Aus, UK etc. Yes that falls to the government.The rest home was at 80% occupancy because they could not get the staff to tend to a higher occupancy rate. Would you be happy to pay more in taxes - or pay new taxes - to help fund the large pay increase that would be necessary to attract and keep sufficient police, teachers, nurses, and carers? Or, you would prefer drastic funding cuts for roading, defence, social welfare and pensions instead?

[mike2020]

The rest home was at 80% occupancy because they could not get the staff to tend to a higher occupancy rate. Would you be happy to pay more in taxes - or pay new taxes - to help fund the large pay increase that would be necessary to attract and keep sufficient police, teachers, nurses, and carers? Or, you would prefer drastic funding cuts for roading, defence, social welfare and pensions instead?

How about 1bill less a week squandered around wellington consultants and the centralisation of services that will more than likely end up being unwound anyway. Govt of the people my A**

[BlackPeter]

80% full and it that catholic rest home is losing $100k a month? yes that is indeed underfunded. shocking what this government is doing in the sector


Not sure what you mean but imo a business running at 80% occupancy shouldnt be loss making. the model doesnt work aye


so this village had enough staff to keep occupancy at 80%

Why does the business model not work at 80% occupancy..? that's ridiculous.

our nurses, Dr's, teachers need to be paid fairly compared to Aus, UK etc. Yes that falls to the government.

No issues with the posts per se, but what exactly do they have to do with OCA (the thread). Maybe you should start a thread for catholic non for profit rest homes ... yes, not all of them are run profitable (makes even sense) and I am sure you could convince people not to invest into them for profit.

[Rawz]

Would you be happy to pay more in taxes - or pay new taxes - to help fund the large pay increase that would be necessary for police, teachers, nurses, and carers? Or, you would prefer drastic funding cuts for roading, defence, social welfare and pensions instead?

Well i previous floated the idea of boomers paying a higher tax rate to cover the shortfall in funding they have created for their own retirement. didnt get much buy in for that (on here at least lol).

DRASTIC funding cuts? sounds grim.
Its just a budget and allocation. some departments get more some get less each year. and it balances out in the long run. some departments seem happy and some not so much. nothing drastic needs to happen

Could cut some of the army of consultants?

[Rawz]

No issues with the posts per se, but what exactly do they have to do with OCA (the thread). Maybe you should start a thread for catholic non for profit rest homes ... yes, not all of them are run profitable (makes even sense) and I am sure you could convince people not to invest into them for profit.

just talking about care business model which relates to OCA

But come on BP, you know whenever STrd talks about anything retirement related is done on this thread. i am just a sheep following the herd

[BlackPeter]

80% full and it that catholic rest home is losing $100k a month? yes that is indeed underfunded. shocking what this government is doing in the sector


Not sure what you mean but imo a business running at 80% occupancy shouldnt be loss making. the model doesnt work aye


just talking about care business model which relates to OCA

But come on BP, you know whenever STrd talks about anything retirement related is done on this thread. i am just a sheep following the herd

Maybe we need to muster the sheep :p;

I hope you (and others) understand that OCA (and the other listed retirement villages) have totally different business models than any religious non for profit retirement home. This means that a long discussion of the business success (or otherwise) of a religious non for profit rest home on this thread is quite irrelevant.

[mike2020]

Maybe we need to muster the sheep :p;

I hope you (and others) understand that OCA (and the other listed retirement villages) have totally different business models than any religious non for profit retirement home. This means that a long discussion of the business success (or otherwise) of a religious non for profit rest home on this thread is quite irrelevant.

Obviously NFP was evident in the 100k loss per month?

[justakiwi]

Exactly. They are incomparable. The only reason it is valid to discuss them here, is to demonstrate that fact, and to point out that RVs have a significant opportunity to pick up the slack in the future.


Maybe we need to muster the sheep :p;

I hope you (and others) understand that OCA (and the other listed retirement villages) have totally different business models than any religious non for profit retirement home. This means that a long discussion of the business success (or otherwise) of a religious non for profit rest home on this thread is quite irrelevant.

[mike2020]

Ok, I think you both miss the point. Underfunding and anti immigration are affecting all rest homes. All points back to govt or lack of it. I have seen smaller rest homes begging for staff on Facebook to fill gaps their overstretched staff can no longer fill, at what cost? I read recently 1200 people who should be in care are filling hospital beds. It all adds up to a bigger story. If that one rest home is loosing 12000 PA per resident how are the others managing?

[BlackPeter]

Ok, I think you both miss the point. Underfunding and anti immigration are affecting all rest homes. All points back to govt or lack of it. I have seen smaller rest homes begging for staff on Facebook to fill gaps their overstretched staff can no longer fill, at what cost? I read recently 1200 people who should be in care are filling hospital beds. It all adds up to a bigger story. If that one rest home is loosing 12000 PA per resident how are the others managing?

Well, the bigger picture is that there is increasing demand for good care. And hey, the people who are able to afford to pay for it will get it (supplied by companies like OCA) - and the people who can't afford it will end in a less desirable situation until we change to a government which does care.

[winner69]

I reckon that Oceania 'lose' more than $15m a year from caring for those who really do need care - 'lose' is the shortfall / unrecovered costs / subsidies from property or however you want to describe it - or what it costs less fees/subsidies they get

[Bjauck]

I reckon that Oceania 'lose' more than $15m a year from caring for those who really do need care - 'lose' is the shortfall / unrecovered costs / subsidies from property or however you want to describe it - or what it costs less fees/subsidies they get True. The RV model for the continuing funding of rest homes relies on Their premium residents/ ORA clients subsidising the government funded/basic private paying rest home and hospital residents.

In the absence of realistic funding, will the government’s next move make it mandatory for RVs to supply an increasing number of Rest home beds, especially as more not-for-profit and independent rest homes close down?

[justakiwi]

Nobody is arguing that there are not currently serious shortages of RNs, not just in Aged Care. But it's not a NZ only issue. It is a global issue, which won't be resolved anytime in the very near future unfortunately.

OCA however, has a clear focus on looking after their RNs, supporting them with "paid professional development and financial support" - amongst other things, as outlined here:

14277

These initiatives go a long way to encouraging RNs to work for OCA. It shows the company is committed to supporting their RNs. If I were an RN this is the kind of support I would be looking for. (The shoes are a just a nice bonus ;))

EDIT: interestingly, I just looked at their Collective Agreement - they actually have 7 pay steps for their RNs - two more than my organisation does. So an RN on the top step at OCA would earn $2/hour more than an RN with us, on our top step.


Ok, I think you both miss the point. Underfunding and anti immigration are affecting all rest homes. All points back to govt or lack of it. I have seen smaller rest homes begging for staff on Facebook to fill gaps their overstretched staff can no longer fill, at what cost? I read recently 1200 people who should be in care are filling hospital beds. It all adds up to a bigger story. If that one rest home is loosing 12000 PA per resident how are the others managing?

[winner69]

Suppose when close is 81 cents one takes solace that the WVAP was 82.69 cents …not so bad after all

[Rawz]

Suppose when close is 81 cents one takes solace that the WVAP was 82.69 cents …not so bad after all

OMG did it close at 81!!!! what on earth.?!?

(sorry some days i dont check SP of my holdings especially when they are heavily in the red lol)

[limmy]

Could this be why OCA closed at 81 cents ?

https://www.1news.co.nz/2022/11/02/families-dipped-into-pockets-in-bid-to-save-auckland-rest-home/

[ronaldson]

The closure of 20 rest homes already this year is probably unprecedented. The sector has 3800 nurses and requires 5000, and nurses in public hospitals are being paid $20k - $30k more than rest home nurses, and as we know the public hospitals are still chronically short staffed. So the situation will not self-rectify.

I don't begrudge the public sector nurses their salaries. The government have sought to solve their problem, which is a major political concern, but have effectively thrown the private sector "under the bus" to do so.

[mike2020]

Yeah but 1200 rest home patients are clogging up hospital beds. It is a cluster duster.

[bottomfeeder]

Yeah but 1200 rest home patients are clogging up hospital beds. It is a cluster duster.

Just where are they going to go. The care suites will always be in demand. Caring for elderley is harder than what you think. They have special needs. My mother in law had a mat next to her bed in Arvida, so when she tried to get out of bed the bell would ring. Kids of the elderley are busy as hell and deserve a life. Elderley are in various stages of ability and mobility and sometimes need care 24/7. The incontinance is a particular problem for kids as this aspect is not pleasant for either the cared or the carer. Care suites are here to stay and the tsunami of elderley is forming. This sector will sort itself out very quickly. You read about villages closing down will just burden the existing villages even more with excess demand.

Give it a year or so and we will find it will all be sorted.

[Muse]

I know this government has no love for the RV or RV+care industry, but at some point a catch up in funding for aged care becomes a no brainer political winner, even if ideologically unpalatable should labour stay in power. Fact is every night the news is filled with stories about our healthcare system, which has gone from being portrayed as stretched to failing. If appropriately funding care could free up beds that didn't need to be filled in hospitals, and a politician could score points by throwing money at it to alleviate an image issue, my gut tells me it has a better than not chance of happening.

I think Winner69's thesis of how the market value OCA is right: some discount to NTA (say 20%) to reflect property jitters, then the NPV of care losses for many years after. It takes a leap of faith to assume any government will fix something because it is the right thing to do, but a far less leap to imagine a gov throwing money at a problem to fix an image issue.

In that sense OCA is becoming an intriguing play. I dunno where sentiment will take OCA over the next 12 months but I'd wager in 5 years we will be sitting around thinking 81c looked like good value.

But I readily acknowledge all the headwinds. Particularly sentiment around property, as I think the residential market will continue to deteriorate more than many are expecting or prepared for.

[bull....]

wonder if covid lows be tested again ? next yr be brutal in many regards esp considering how RBNZ yesterday gave a doom presentation on property outlook

[850man]

The closure of 20 rest homes already this year is probably unprecedented. The sector has 3800 nurses and requires 5000, and nurses in public hospitals are being paid $20k - $30k more than rest home nurses, and as we know the public hospitals are still chronically short staffed. So the situation will not self-rectify.

I don't begrudge the public sector nurses their salaries. The government have sought to solve their problem, which is a major political concern, but have effectively thrown the private sector "under the bus" to do so.

By "solve" do you mean by freezing nurses wages for 3 years in 2020?

[winner69]

I know this government has no love for the RV or RV+care industry, but at some point a catch up in funding for aged care becomes a no brainer political winner, even if ideologically unpalatable should labour stay in power. Fact is every night the news is filled with stories about our healthcare system, which has gone from being portrayed as stretched to failing. If appropriately funding care could free up beds that didn't need to be filled in hospitals, and a politician could score points by throwing money at it to alleviate an image issue, my gut tells me it has a better than not chance of happening.

I think Winner69's thesis of how the market value OCA is right: some discount to NTA (say 20%) to reflect property jitters, then the NPV of care losses for many years after. It takes a leap of faith to assume any government will fix something because it is the right thing to do, but a far less leap to imagine a gov throwing money at a problem to fix an image issue.

In that sense OCA is becoming an intriguing play. I dunno where sentiment will take OCA over the next 12 months but I'd wager in 5 years we will be sitting around thinking 81c looked like good value.

But I readily acknowledge all the headwinds. Particularly sentiment around property, as I think the residential market will continue to deteriorate more than many are expecting or prepared for.

Nice to see you think my valuation methodology has some merit

I think it’s vital one assesses the care shortfall / losses (who much does it need to be subsidised from other activities) not just for today but into the future. That’s why I capitalised what I think the current figure is and allowed for that in my valuation. I reckon it’s a big number …hence the huge discount to NTA

[BlackPeter]

Could this be why OCA closed at 81 cents ?

https://www.1news.co.nz/2022/11/02/families-dipped-into-pockets-in-bid-to-save-auckland-rest-home/

I'd say the story you linked to is as relevant for the OCA share price as the fact that the moon grew yesterday to 2/3rds of its full size. But hey - you never know, the ways of the markets are funny and miraculous :);

[ronaldson]

The Government really had no alternative but to finally (and significantly) increase public sector nursing salaries, pay shift incentives and more. The voters would not tolerate collapse in the hospital system.

However, the private sector providers continue to be squeezed dry. The gazetted increase in care funding rates, effective from 1 September 2022, is 5.5% which is less than the rate of inflation and there is no incentive for existing aged care providers to increase investment in new beds or facilities. On the contrary ARV (in which I am also a holder) last year divested four smaller care centres to reduce the needs-based composition of their portfolio and have stated (Investor News September 2022) that they intend to continue that strategy.

In my view the development of the private/NZX listed retirement industry in this country over, say, the last two decades and with the current rate of building has literally saved the Governments bacon in the housing sector and in care for the elderly where in both cases the public sector deserves, as everybody knows, an abject fail mark.

[winner69]

I'd say the story you linked to is as relevant for the OCA share price as the fact that the moon grew yesterday to 2/3rds of its full size. But hey - you never know, the ways of the markets are funny and miraculous :);

Aston Martin cutting profit guidance not good sign

[bull....]

boiled cabbage is getting expensive

[winner69]

boiled cabbage is getting expensive

Oh no …even higher costs at Oceania

[Getty]

Just where are they going to go. The care suites will always be in demand. Caring for elderley is harder than what you think. They have special needs. My mother in law had a mat next to her bed in Arvida, so when she tried to get out of bed the bell would ring. Kids of the elderley are busy as hell and deserve a life. Elderley are in various stages of ability and mobility and sometimes need care 24/7. The incontinance is a particular problem for kids as this aspect is not pleasant for either the cared or the carer. Care suites are here to stay and the tsunami of elderley is forming. This sector will sort itself out very quickly. You read about villages closing down will just burden the existing villages even more with excess demand.

Give it a year or so and we will find it will all be sorted.

The answer is right in front of everybody, but few have the courage to tackle it.

People take their elderly pets to the vet when they are unwell, and accept a vets assessment the pet would be best put to sleep.
The pet does not have the power of the veto.

However, with humans, the reverse applies, and all manner of life support is invoked to prolong the misery of those waiting to die.

The cash cows are kept propped up.

C.mon OCA, set up your voluntary euthanasia division.

[RTM]

The answer is right in front of everybody, but few have the courage to tackle it.

People take their elderly pets to the vet when they are unwell, and accept a vets assessment the pet would be best put to sleep.
The pet does not have the power of the veto.

However, with humans, the reverse applies, and all manner of life support is invoked to prolong the misery of those waiting to die.

The cash cows are kept propped up.

C.mon OCA, set up your voluntary euthanasia division.

My Mum recently passed Getty, she spent her last 9 months in Summerset village slowly declining. The care there was just amazing.
When the time came.... they knew when...and what to do....and helped her a lot.
The family was extremely grateful for the professional, compassionate care she received....right until the end. In spite of the struggles with COVID and staffing levels.
We couldn't have asked for more.

[BlackPeter]

The answer is right in front of everybody, but few have the courage to tackle it.

People take their elderly pets to the vet when they are unwell, and accept a vets assessment the pet would be best put to sleep.
The pet does not have the power of the veto.

However, with humans, the reverse applies, and all manner of life support is invoked to prolong the misery of those waiting to die.

The cash cows are kept propped up.

C.mon OCA, set up your voluntary euthanasia division.

And I thought we reached the culmination of tastelessness already in some other political and generic threads, but hey - congratulations - you managed to push the standard still lower ... !

[bull....]

The answer is right in front of everybody, but few have the courage to tackle it.

People take their elderly pets to the vet when they are unwell, and accept a vets assessment the pet would be best put to sleep.
The pet does not have the power of the veto.

However, with humans, the reverse applies, and all manner of life support is invoked to prolong the misery of those waiting to die.

The cash cows are kept propped up.

C.mon OCA, set up your voluntary euthanasia division.

weekly boiled cabbage does the job

[Getty]

And I thought we reached the culmination of tastelessness already in some other political and generic threads, but hey - congratulations - you managed to push the standard still lower ... !
I knew I would stir some emotion, but not in one as ruthless as you BP.

[bottomfeeder]

The answer is right in front of everybody, but few have the courage to tackle it.

People take their elderly pets to the vet when they are unwell, and accept a vets assessment the pet would be best put to sleep.
The pet does not have the power of the veto.

However, with humans, the reverse applies, and all manner of life support is invoked to prolong the misery of those waiting to die.

The cash cows are kept propped up.

C.mon OCA, set up your voluntary euthanasia division.

Your post may be tongue in cheek, but no doubt there will be people that warm up to that attitude. Of course those people are younger and not the ones in the position of being put down. They are so mercenary that they want this to happen to save costs and get their hands on someone else's hard earned money.
Elder abuse is disgusting and someone needs to stand up to protect those with less control over their lives. The government needs to be their advocate and react immediately to fix any funding shortfalls to ensure that the elderly are looked after instead of being cast aside.

[Getty]

Your post may be tongue in cheek, but no doubt there will be people that warm up to that attitude. Of course those people are younger and not the ones in the position of being put down. They are so mercenary that they want this to happen to save costs and get their hands on someone else's hard earned money.
Elder abuse is disgusting and someone needs to stand up to protect those with less control over their lives. The government needs to be their advocate and react immediately to fix any funding shortfalls to ensure that the elderly are looked after instead of being cast aside.

No argument from me against your sentiments, and many good folk expressed that at the time of the Euthanasia debate.

My focus is on voluntary as in my post.

[Rawz]

Need to vote Winston Peters back in. He wont let this funding shortfall stand.

Winston could be the savior of OCA

[Getty]

weekly boiled cabbage does the job

That's what l'm on, as an endangered species, as all the retirement villages are encroaching into the productive land, and no Chinese market gardeners coming through to keep up supplies.

[bull....]

That's what l'm on, as an endangered species, as all the retirement villages are encroaching into the productive land, and no Chinese market gardeners coming through to keep up supplies.

a healthy option but from my experience they tend to overboil it and reduce the nutritional value and no im not a customer yet.
i actually lived in a rest home for 2 yrs as an early 20 something when a family friend gave me one of the rooms when i shifted to auckland from far away. saw first hand the carry on in the kitchen while i was chatting up the cooks

[BlackPeter]

I knew I would stir some emotion, but not in one as ruthless as you BP.

Cheers for the flowers;

Anyway - I have no issues with a respectful discussion about voluntary euthanasia on a thread dedicated to this subject, but I thought that we had this discussion in NZ already, didn't we?

What I find however absolutely disgusting is the way in which you speak about human life and ending it. I certainly hope that nobody will put us down when we are old like people put down an old dog ...

But maybe you are too young to understand that you will be at some stage in this situation as well ... "hey, grand dad - to which euthanasia station do you want us to bring you for your disposal?"

Time flies ...

[justakiwi]

How about all of those here, who are not invested in OCA, have no intention of ever being, have no genuine interest in the sector/company or elderly people in general .... just go find some other place to "hang out?" This thread just keeps getting side tracked, ad infinitum, to the point of ridiculousness.

As for you Getty ... I fully support people's rights to choose Assisted Dying. I believe it is something we needed. Your comments however, completely disrespect the initiative and process, and are disrespectful to our elderly, and to anyone who chooses Assisted Dying for themselves.

You have much to learn about ageing, but I would be wasting my breath trying to help you understand it.

[Getty]

Cheers for the flowers;

Anyway - I have no issues with a respectful discussion about voluntary euthanasia on a thread dedicated to this subject, but I thought that we had this discussion in NZ already, didn't we?

What I find however absolutely disgusting is the way in which you speak about human life and ending it. I certainly hope that nobody will put us down when we are old like people put down an old dog ...

But maybe you are too young to understand that you will be at some stage in this situation as well ... "hey, grand dad - to which euthanasia station do you want us to bring you for your disposal?"

Time flies ...

Put down the one eyed monocle, and try some bi focals.
I stated the beloved animal has no power of the veto, whereas conversely the human does.

[justakiwi]

You did state that. But you also implied that they shouldn’t have the power of veto. Which was an abhorrent and unconscionable thing to say.



I stated the beloved animal has no power of the veto, whereas conversely the human does.

[bull....]

anyway back to the fact boiled cabbage is over used in rest homes.

did you know what it is called when someone is murdered by a over boiled cabbage ?

slaw - der

[Goose]

Need to vote Winston Peters back in. He wont let this funding shortfall stand.

Winston could be the savior of OCA

I don't think OCA needs a savior but at 81c the market cap is just $579m...with a weak NZD does this make it a takeover target? Perhaps the Swedes might have another nibble at the retirement sector in NZ after Metlifecare - I certainly hope not.

[justakiwi]

Just so you boiled cabbage "experts" know ... I could count on one hand the number of times I've seen cabbage served to our residents.

I get that some of this nonsense, is just pot stirring, but stick to the facts. There is enough false information and misconceptions about aged care, without you guys adding to it.




anyway back to the fact boiled cabbage is over used in rest homes.

[Bjauck]

Put down the one eyed monocle, and try some bi focals.
I stated the beloved animal has no power of the veto, whereas conversely the human does. Lucky for us, life is not “Logan’s Run”. Although the run away from OCA seems to continue….80c tomorrow?

[Getty]

Just so you boiled cabbage "experts" know ... I could count on one hand the number of times I've seen cabbage served to our residents.
.

Lettuce know if they get any salad.

[850man]

Half year results due end of Nov, maybe some good news that kicks the SP out of the doldrums. Time will tell

[justakiwi]

Are you 12? Dickhead.


Lettuce know if they get any salad.

[Getty]

Are you 12? Dickhead.
Nice to know you have taken me off ignore.
I know you love me, but remember curiosity killed the cat.
You will be adding me as a friend on Facebook next.

[justakiwi]

I didn't take you off ignore. I saw some of your posts as they were quoted by others. I did look at the last one because in case you haven't noticed, I have an innate need to defend the elderly and the Aged Care sector. It is something I am passionate about and I take it personally, on behalf of our elderly folk, when people like you, and others, seem hell bent on disrespecting them as human beings, choose to misunderstand the industry completely, and generally contribute nothing of worth to this thread - which by the way, is an OCA thread. I make no apologies for that. None. I realise I am wasting my time with most of you. I realise you have tunnel vision and are unwilling to listen to the views of someone who works on the ground floor, or someone like Maverick, who is the undisputed ST expert on OCA. We have both tried to "enlighten" you in this thread, but some of you are clearly just not interested, or perhaps you are just too stupid to understand it.

Do you even hold OCA? If you do ... why? It seems to me it's the last sector you should be invested in. Have a wonderful rest of your day.


Nice to know you have taken me off ignore.
I know you love me, but remember curiosity killed the cat.
You will be adding me as a friend on Facebook next.

[Rawz]

I didn't take you off ignore. I saw some of your posts as they were quoted by others. I did look at the last one because in case you haven't noticed, I have an innate need to defend the elderly and the Aged Care sector. It is something I am passionate about and I take it personally, on behalf of our elderly folk, when people like you, and others, seem hell bent on disrespecting them as human beings, choose to misunderstand the industry completely, and generally contribute nothing of worth to this thread - which by the way, is an OCA thread. I make no apologies for that. None. I realise I am wasting my time with most of you. I realise you have tunnel vision and are unwilling to listen to the views of someone who works on the ground floor, or someone like Maverick, who is the undisputed ST expert on OCA. We have both tried to "enlighten" you in this thread, but some of you are clearly just not interested, or perhaps you are just too stupid to understand it.

Do you even hold OCA? If you do ... why? It seems to me it's the last sector you should be invested in. Have a wonderful rest of your day.

This thread just keeps getting side tracked, ad infinitum, to the point of ridiculousness.

sorry

[justakiwi]

FFS. I'm done.


This thread just keeps getting side tracked, ad infinitum, to the point of ridiculousness.

sorry

[dabsman]

I got out of OCA a while back. Main reason for dumping OCA and keeping SUM was the massive care component of their operation. I thought I'd get back in at around 90c but I dont see any reason to jump in yet. Catching a falling knife is pretty risky as they say. Didnt this list at 79c?

[bull....]

Lettuce know if they get any salad.

lol
if kfc cant afford lettuce there no way in hell rest homes be buying lettuce.
boiled cabbage with pork is nice and nutricious and not too expensive compared to say a lettuce salad with lamb or steak

[Blue Skies]

Don't know if anyones mentioned this but I was really pleased & impressed to see OCA's new TV ad campaign last night. Really well done.
Perhaps they've changed agencies but the previous ad campaign really missed the mark Imo. The last campaigns attempt at humour was incredibly patronising & disrespectful towards our seniors, obviously put together by some young things with absolutely no understanding of the seniors target market. Made the residents look like they were all children who had lost their marbles. Was surprised & dismayed management went with it.
The new campaign gives me much more confidence management are over the detail, & marketing is so important.

[Balance]

Met some bankers today to chew the fat on what’s happening out there.

Basically foreign depositors and investors in NZ property, bonds and equities have been pulling billions of dollars out of NZ.

There is little confidence that the residential property cycle is going to trend higher anytime soon in the next 2 years.

And as we know, once the foreign investors from most countries sell, they cannot buy back in and are unlikely to due to Labour’s foreign buyer policy.

Unless the immigration gates open up, only one way for the sector to go and it’s not up.

[Ggcc]

Met some bankers today to chew the fat on what’s happening out there.

Basically foreign depositors and investors in NZ property, bonds and equities have been pulling billions of dollars out of NZ.

There is little confidence that the residential property cycle is going to trend higher anytime soon in the next 2 years.

And as we know, once the foreign investors from most countries sell, they cannot buy back in and are unlikely to due to Labour’s foreign buyer policy.

Unless the immigration gates open up, only one way for the sector to go and it’s not up.

Let’s hope labour does not govern for the next term. Although to be honest it will take a while for any party to un clutter this mess labour and successive governments before have been putting this country into. In short I don’t know what the answer is either, but I feel for RV increasing nurses and doctors pay will help in the longterm for this sector.

[Bjauck]

Met some bankers today to chew the fat on what’s happening out there.

Basically foreign depositors and investors in NZ property, bonds and equities have been pulling billions of dollars out of NZ.

There is little confidence that the residential property cycle is going to trend higher anytime soon in the next 2 years.

And as we know, once the foreign investors from most countries sell, they cannot buy back in and are unlikely to due to Labour’s foreign buyer policy.

Unless the immigration gates open up, only one way for the sector to go and it’s not up. NZ fiscal settings have needed major reform for decades. Also, have we really needed foreign investors to be allowed to invest in and consequently increase price pressure on NZ residential housing, when residential housing has already been more appealing than investing in the stock exchange and in business for so many NZers? We want as many NZ owner occupiers* as possible, so that that they can sell their homes to move into an ORA unit in an OCA village!

Certainly with current fiscal settings and investment markets, NZ relies on net migration, rather than productivity increase, for most of its economic growth

* Or many NZers with a sufficiently large investment portfolio (if they do not own a home) to be able to buy an ORA in a village.

[Panda-NZ-]

Met some bankers today to chew the fat on what’s happening out there.

The bankers gave us an AA+ credit rating in 2018.

We still own a fair bit which would have been flogged off otherwise.

[Balance]

NZ fiscal settings have needed major reform for decades. Also, have we really needed foreign investors to be allowed to invest in and consequently increase price pressure on NZ residential housing, when residential housing has already been more appealing than investing in the stock exchange and in business for so many NZers? We want as many NZ owner occupiers* as possible, so that that they can sell their homes to move into an ORA unit in an OCA village!

Certainly with current fiscal settings and investment markets, NZ relies on net migration, rather than productivity increase, for most of its economic growth

* Or many NZers with a sufficiently large investment portfolio (if they do not own a home) to be able to buy an ORA in a village.

I am simply pointing out the observations of bankers of what is happening out there - they make money irrespective of what's happening as long as they are on top of macro-economic factors at play & mitigate & manage their lending risks accordingly. Take it or leave it - how they see the economic picture unfolding has a huge impact on the flow of funds out there.

Remember that foreign buyers were blamed for pricing properties & homes out of the reach of first home buyers?

Turned out that it's actually government policies (cheap monies, horrendous compliance & regulatory costs, rental regulations etc) which pushed up property prices to the stratosphere in the last 5 years.

As I have written before, NZ property cycle tends to be 5 years up and 5 years down.

All signs point towards even tougher times in 2023 and we are but just the first year in the down cycle!

[bull....]

I am simply pointing out the observations of bankers of what is happening out there - they make money irrespective of what's happening as long as they are on top of macro-economic factors at play & mitigate & manage their lending risks accordingly. Take it or leave it - how they see the economic picture unfolding has a huge impact on the flow of funds out there.

Remember that foreign buyers were blamed for pricing properties & homes out of the reach of first home buyers?

Turned out that it's actually government policies (cheap monies, horrendous compliance & regulatory costs, rental regulations etc) which pushed up property prices to the stratosphere in the last 5 years.

As I have written before, NZ property cycle tends to be 5 years up and 5 years down.

All signs point towards even tougher times in 2023 and we are but just the first year in the down cycle!

so what your saying balance is oca stock price is headed down .... covid lows maybe ? in fact all RV stocks i guess is the implication

[Rawz]

so what your saying balance is oca stock price is headed down .... covid lows maybe ? in fact all RV stocks i guess is the implication

market has already priced in what Balance is saying. Come on just look at the SP :scared:

[Balance]

market has already priced in what Balance is saying. Come on just look at the SP :scared:

I think you could be right myself.

But I also cannot see anyone really stepping up to load up on the RV stocks knowing the state of the property and financial markets.

A takeover perhaps?

[RTM]

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/bank-finance-difficulties-drive-housing-developers-to-dodgy-loans-firms?utm_source=Friends+of+the+Newsroom&utm_campaign=0cc20ec0f7-Daily_Briefing+04.11.2022&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_71de5c4b35-0cc20ec0f7-97978245

Another indicator of how tight things seem to be getting in the financing world.

[mike2020]

I have a Eureka moment for you all.

The banks and supermarkets are creaming it. Even the power companies are making record profits off presumably renewable inputs (the price of wind and water has increased?) and are signaling an 11% increase as well, great div for the 51% main shareholder.

Let the RVs fall into a state requiring govt investment then you will see a rapid return to profitability. Its still the desired takeover right?

[Bjauck]

I am simply pointing out the observations of bankers of what is happening out there - they make money irrespective of what's happening as long as they are on top of macro-economic factors at play & mitigate & manage their lending risks accordingly. Take it or leave it - how they see the economic picture unfolding has a huge impact on the flow of funds out there.

Remember that foreign buyers were blamed for pricing properties & homes out of the reach of first home buyers?

Turned out that it's actually government policies (cheap monies, horrendous compliance & regulatory costs, rental regulations etc) which pushed up property prices to the stratosphere in the last 5 years.

As I have written before, NZ property cycle tends to be 5 years up and 5 years down.

All signs point towards even tougher times in 2023 and we are but just the first year in the down cycle! NZ housing failure has various causes, however Rental regulations? How do required standards of accommodation and security of tenancy compare to what is required in other OECD countries?

Most countries ensure that foreign buyers cannot buy residences on the same terms as locals. Even Australia requires foreign approval and levies extra tax on foreigner purchases to try to help ensure locals are not cut out of their own country

[bottomfeeder]

Must be oversold. Half the value from its highs, lost 500 million market cap.

Now 79 cents. If this keeps going, I will have to look for a tall building with an open window.

[winner69]

Must be oversold. Half the value from its highs, lost 500 million market cap.

Now 79 cents. If this keeps going, I will have to look for a tall building with an open window.

Spooky eh

Some punters love Fibonacci numbers

Gone past the 23.6% retracement from that $1.60 high ..... and the 38.2% retracement ..... and the 50.0% retracement (which was at $1.06) .... and the 61.8% retracement

Next stop maybe the 78.6% retracement at 74 cents

[Rawz]

Spooky eh

Some punters love Fibonacci numbers

Gone past the 23.6% retracement from that $1.60 high ..... and the 38.2% retracement ..... and the 50.0% retracement (which was at $1.06) .... and the 61.8% retracement

Next stop maybe the 78.6% retracement at 74 cents
What does all that mean?

[davflaws]

What does all that mean?
It means that it hasn't hit bottom - yet!

[Baa_Baa]

Must be oversold. Half the value from its highs, lost 500 million market cap.

Now 79 cents. If this keeps going, I will have to look for a tall building with an open window.

It might be small consolation but daily traded volume tells a story of who's setting market prices. Daily volume average this time last year was around 1m per day, falling to 500k late August, then a steep decline in October to 135k average now. It only takes 1 share sold lower into the bid to set the market price. Most days there are a lot of small volume trades going on, moving the market price.

[winner69]

What does all that mean?

Try this https://www.cornertrader.com/export/sites/cornertraderCOM/.content/.galleries/downloads/website/tutorials/4-2-technical-analysis-fibonacci.pdf

Nature often explains a lot of things and a good guide for the future ..... the Golden Ratio is cool

[Baa_Baa]

Spooky eh

Some punters love Fibonacci numbers

Gone past the 23.6% retracement from that $1.60 high ..... and the 38.2% retracement ..... and the 50.0% retracement (which was at $1.06) .... and the 61.8% retracement

Next stop maybe the 78.6% retracement at 74 cents

My chart has the 78.6% fib retrace from Covid low to ATH, at 64 cents. There's a technical support above that 73 cents. Pity it's not a more rosy picture. Sentiment rules the market so until something changes that for the better, this will just leak away for as long as it takes. The whole sector is in the same vice grip.

[winner69]

It might be small consolation but daily traded volume tells a story of who's setting market prices. Daily volume average this time last year was around 1m per day, falling to 500k late August, then a steep decline in October to 135k average now. It only takes 1 share sold lower into the bid to set the market price. Most days there are a lot of small volume trades going on, moving the market price.

So 'small guys' doing the selling .... not the 'big guys' .... yes?

Maybe 'small guys' think it's all bad ....but 'big guys' don't seem to think its any good either

Question then .... if the 'big guys' think it is good when you reckon they will step in and drive the price back over a buck

Liz and Greg probably have to wait until after the results announcemet before they can help out ....Liz in particular would love to average down as she's under water quite a lot now

[850man]

Shares are being hoovered up, perhaps those with a longer term intentions are doing it slowly to avoid pushing the price up and to take advantage of those weaker handed

[mike2020]

My chart has the 78.6% fib retrace from Covid low to ATH, at 64 cents. There's a technical support above that 73 cents. Pity it's not a more rosy picture. Sentiment rules the market so until something changes that for the better, this will just leak away for as long as it takes. The whole sector is in the same vice grip.

I just checked my phone and the power is at 64%. I'm placing an order now.

[aquaman]

Well this is the moment ive been waiting for, below 80. I will now start to add to my holding in OCA and will continually add as funds allow as long as it stays below 80.
I agree with balance around the 5 year cycle and im investing for at least 5 years but with a target of ten. With a six figure No of shares already im happy to accumulate
further at these rates. If you are looking at a shorter term this may not suit you. We all have different motives.

[ronaldson]

No word yet when the half-year results will be released to NZX despite most other listed entities reporting with a 30 September full or half-year balance date having already done so. Also, no trading update at least since the AGM in June when there was some commentary on the first two-month period.

The CEO said in June " we also have an eye to those sites that may no longer fit the portfolio and divestment of a few sites will likely be part of this year's activity" but again no word.

It was stated that OCA have 2900 staff and 4000 residents (at 31 March). I looked at the ARV Annual Report as at 31/03/22 for a comparison and they seem to have a team of 2700 serving 6750 residents. While OCA currently have a high build rate ratio to their existing scale it does seem that staffing levels on a per resident basis will inevitably be a drag on performance. No doubt that is one reason for the intention to divest at some locations where care beds dominate, and the government subsidy is inadequate to continue.

We will have to wait and see but an information vacuum doesn't assist pricing in the market!

[bottomfeeder]

While OCA currently have a high build rate ratio to their existing scale it does seem that staffing levels on a per resident basis will inevitably be a drag on performance. No doubt that is one reason for the intention to divest at some locations where care beds dominate, and the government subsidy is inadequate to continue.

We will have to wait and see but an information vacuum doesn't assist pricing in the market!

It would be short sighted and a kneejerk reaction to drop care beds. The short funding by Government will right itself. If everyone were to divest themselves of care units, then the price you are going to get is bottom dollar anyway. They should hang in there and work on the model. Shortfalls on funding is paid by the resident anyway. I see OCA is advertising their joint care suites on TV. Now those only have the basic funding by Government, the excess is paid by the resident. Only the basic care units are losing money as the resident has no money to pay the excess shortfall. We will see that elderly that have no funds to speak of, will not find any care units to live in and then the Government will have to stump up or they will be homeless. There is no reason why a profit orientated business will lose money on their care suites, but there will be a time lag as the basic units are reoccupied by those able to pay the excess cost. After all over the coming years, there will be no shortage of elderly and most have money.

[Entrep]

This is SUM vs OCA since the March 2020 crash:

https://i.imgur.com/yVX70Ei.png

This is SUM vs OCA since OCA was listed:

https://i.imgur.com/2ZQYiPS.png

SUM has consistently been the stronger stock. Personally, I find OCA attractive compared to SUM as a value play (which is totally unsophisticated) with nice dividends.

How about you others - why do you choose OCA over SUM?

[Panda-NZ-]

I choose RYM because its the market darling and is now the same value that it was in 2014.

[Panda-NZ-]

Plus they have more discretion in picking customers and staff shortages plus wage pressures aren't as much of a problem when less of them are needed per person.

[percy]

A comparison.
.................................................. .....ARV...........................OCA............ .............RYM................................SU M
share price.......................................$1.26. .........................80cents.................. .$8.23..............................$9.94
PE................................................ .....3.92..........................9.23........... .............5.94................................5 .52
yield............................................. .....4.37%.......................5.5%............. ...........2.72%............................1.94%
NTA............................................... ...$1.84.........................$1.32............ ...........$6.76..............................$8.9 1
Share price discount to NTA.................21.6%......................... 39.4%......................None................... ..........None
share price premium to NTA.................None.......................... ..None....................21.74%.................. ...........11.56%.

[Baa_Baa]

I choose RYM because its the market darling and is now the same value that it was in 2014.

And it was ~the same price for 3 years through to 2017


Plus they have more discretion in picking customers and staff shortages plus wage pressures aren't as much of a problem when there is less needed per person.

One business, 185 job ads: Why Ryman needs so many staff (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/130361849/one-business-185-job-ads-why-ryman-needs-so-many-staff)

[Panda-NZ-]

One business, 185 job ads: Why Ryman needs so many staff (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/130361849/one-business-185-job-ads-why-ryman-needs-so-many-staff)


News just in ... a large and growing business needs staff.

Though nothing is mentioned about staff needs/profit per resident.

[winner69]

Updated chart OCA share price as % of SUM Share price

Once only need 5 OCA shares to buy 1 SUM share - now you need 12 (going on 13)

[winner69]

PATTY woll be happy - yield getting better by day

One thing - dividend will be maintained or might even be increased ....even if they have to borrow more to pay it

[Panda-NZ-]

One business, 185 job ads: Why Ryman needs so many staff (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/130361849/one-business-185-job-ads-why-ryman-needs-so-many-staff)

To add to the above, the number includes employing their own construction staff.

Shows how efficient they are.

[winner69]

Bargain hunters coming out in force

could be strong close to the week

[Poolboy]

Phew, I'm pleased I haven't got too much RYM. they are at their lowest in a year. $8.22

The investors must have read Percy's chart.

[mike2020]

The mad rash fools.

[winner69]

The mad rash fools.

some just can't resist a bargain .... better not miss out ..... and a lunar eclipse next week

[Poolboy]

..... and a lunar eclipse next week

Howling at the moon.

[BlackPeter]

Updated chart OCA share price as % of SUM Share price

Once only need 5 OCA shares to buy 1 SUM share - now you need 12 (going on 13)

Hey - look at it from a different angle: You needed in the good old times 10 OCA shares to buy 1 Ryman share and know what - some things just don"t change!

I think the only issue is that the market recognised SUM's worth already some years ago. OCA (which listed later than SUM) will be next.

To answer to some other poster - this is the reason I hold OCA above SUM ... always better to hold a stock with development potential rather than a stock where perfection is already priced in.

[Maverick]

How about you others - why do you choose OCA over SUM?


Excellent question....Funny thing is I was working on the SUM stuff this morning...
I think SUM is the better company for most people. Seriously , how can you go wrong?
Easy to have full confidence when they have a CAGR history like they do. They`re building some cool stuff in high end Auckland and have accumulated a leading knowledge of the industry. No analysis at all is needed to see this company is top notch. On a forward PE of about 13, that's tremendous buying in anyone's book. There, the job is done...buy SUM- I'm being serious.

You know there's a "but" coming ... SUM are getting so big now that their build rate of 600 now just can't keep increasing in NZ without meeting saturation. They are the fish that has reached its maximum size for its NZ tank. The company has been so successful , for so long and got so big , those heady CAGR years are on a glidepath now. Much like RYM has become. Its star is not fading fast by any means but its huge growth days are behind it - especially in a ,now falling, property market. Of course they have their Ozzy expansion but in my mind AU has not been an easy copy & paste for many NZ companies . At a forward PE of 13 though, its stunning value.

OCA has achieved zero CAGR. Last year we saw 16% growth for the very first time but it was swallowed whole with new shares issued ( to pay for subsequent village purchases). My maths and that of the analysts now are seeing decent growth this year and high growth the following. Regardless of a housing slowdown. So if my math's are right , and they will be close, we should see this year's FY profit grow 15-20% ( the analysts are also in line with these numbers) . That puts OCA on a forward PE of about 8.5. The year beyond then gets rudely healthy as Helier comes online.
So if you genuinely believe the bright forecasts that are yet to materialize over a benign track record then you can see why I go for OCA.

In 3 weeks we will see evidence of this rising star - or not- from a relatively small base and a cheap PE. If OCA does achieve the expected underlying growth rate anywhere around 15% PCP then you should gain confidence that you can buy a company at the start of its run at only 2/3rds the price of SUM.

One last thing, do not believe the constant nonsense out there about OCA being forever hamstrung by its older rest home businesses. While they do own plenty of these, just consider them as “land banks” that are paying their way in the meantime.

[Muse]

Good stuff as always Mav

I've been underweight RVs for the last 2 years and I really don't have a good understanding of them

The whole price to NTA thing I get. But one thing that has been on my mind from price to underlying earnings basis is the impact from the increasingly slow turnover of housing stock. Days to sell are on the rise. With fewer houses being sold, and those that are being sold taking longer to sell, does that slow the turnover of units? Any impact on the DMF? I'd imagine this one specific issue isn't so much an asset or price to NTA issue, but an earnings timing issue. Is there some sort of bridge made available from RV providers to those buying units until they are able to sell their houses?

As the market corrects I find myself getting more interested in learning about the sector

[Baa_Baa]

But one thing that has been on my mind from price to underlying earnings basis is the impact from the increasingly slow turnover of housing stock.

Days to sell are on the rise.

With fewer houses being sold, and those that are being sold taking longer to sell, does that slow the turnover of units?

Any impact on the DMF?

I'd imagine this one specific issue isn't so much an asset or price to NTA issue, but an earnings timing issue.

Is there some sort of bridge made available from RV providers to those buying units until they are able to sell their houses?

The challenge is whether these general residential housing market factors, which are in our face right now, actually relate to the RV market. I think from what I'm seeing, that the correlation of general housing is not anywhere near as close to RV as the market seems to think it is, or the commentators who frequently refer to the correlation.

RV's various property types/options start off being, in the main, priced at a significant discount to local housing stock. The demand is more needs based as well. I don't see the tight correlation that the market assumes is there. What I do see though is a ramp up in marketing and competition across the listed RV sector, with special deals offered and even better deals if you ask.

We'll see soon enough how or whether this actually affects the RV sector as much as some seem to think it does, as the general property housing market continues to correct. Albeit so far just taking the heat out of the previous 12-24 months of outrageous capital growth.

Another thing to consider is the desirability of the RV properties that OCA are bringing to market. Initial indications are that the high end properties that OCA are currently delivering, are still selling at premium prices. Properties like the Sands and Hellier are differentiated significantly from a run of the mill 'unit' in some RYM or SUM retirement 'village'.

They're luxury apartments and OCA are selling them in the millions of $. Can't compare that with a few hundred box houses or flats that look identical that the others are churning out.

[Muse]

The challenge is whether these general residential housing market factors, which are in our face right now, actually relate to the RV market. I think from what I'm seeing, that the correlation of general housing is not anywhere near as close to RV as the market seems to think it is, or the commentators who frequently refer to the correlation.

RV's various property types/options start off being, in the main, priced at a significant discount to local housing stock. The demand is more needs based as well. I don't see the tight correlation that the market assumes is there. What I do see though is a ramp up in marketing and competition across the listed RV sector, with special deals offered and even better deals if you ask.

We'll see soon enough how or whether this actually affects the RV sector as much as some seem to think it does, as the general property housing market continues to correct. Albeit so far just taking the heat out of the previous 12-24 months of outrageous capital growth.

Another thing to consider is the desirability of the RV properties that OCA are bringing to market. Initial indications are that the high end properties that OCA are currently delivering, are still selling at premium prices. Properties like the Sands and Hellier are differentiated significantly from a run of the mill 'unit' in some RYM or SUM retirement 'village'.

They're luxury apartments and OCA are selling them in the millions of $. Can't compare that with a few hundred box houses or flats that look identical that the others are churning out.

Yeah I understand and agree with all that. I'm just nagged by the thought if it takes customers a lot longer to sell their place, does that mean slower turnover while the market remains in a funk, and if that impacts underlying earnings. At the end of the day I see this as being priced at a sum of the parts basis, some discount to NTA (20-30%), then some sort of NPV of care losses, as winner69 spoke to (rightly or wrongly over the long term). But if in the short term the slower turnover of stock impedes underlying earnings and compresses the ability to grow or at least maintain dividends, that is of interest of me. I've been waiting years to get back into the RV and RV+care market, and the prices are starting to look interesting enough to start my learning process. The gross yield is now acceptable and there is option value around long term capital growth. But I'm just for now trying to get my head around the earnings/dividend part of the equation.

I take your point on the high end/luxury section of the market. A pleasing attribute of OCA.

If the yield is at least maintainable, and if in say 5 years the government get off their butt and do something about care funding, that could result in quite the re-rate of OCA. That's the thesis I am wondering about and do some more work on.

[Baa_Baa]

Yeah I understand and agree with all that. I'm just nagged by the thought if it takes customers a lot longer to sell their place, does that mean slower turnover while the market remains in a funk, and if that impacts underlying earnings. At the end of the day I see this as being priced at a sum of the parts basis, some discount to NTA (20-30%), then some sort of NPV of care losses, as winner69 spoke to (rightly or wrongly over the long term). But if in the short term the slower turnover of stock impedes underlying earnings and compresses the ability to grow or at least maintain dividends, that is of interest of me. I've been waiting years to get back into the RV and RV+care market, and the prices are starting to look interesting enough to start my learning process. The gross yield is now acceptable and there is option value around long term capital growth. But I'm just for now trying to get my head around the earnings/dividend part of the equation.

I take your point on the high end/luxury section of the market. A pleasing attribute of OCA.

If the yield is at least maintainable, and if in say 5 years the government get off their butt and do something about care funding, that could result in quite the re-rate of OCA. That's the thesis I am wondering about and do some more work on.

You'll notice that no no one has ever put up any verified workings of the actual cost of care, for any RV, or the 'loss' that they assume is being incurred.

I think it's overstated, almost become a myth that never seems to be quantified in reality. Even our CEO said that the government funding at these apparently low levels has little effect on the profitability of OCA.

It's a conundrum that is not fully disclosed in the accounts, but from my research is generally over stated in these forums as a concern. All RV's have a quantum of care and the funding is capped, whether from government or from the resident. Whether that translates directly into a loss has not been proven. What has been proven is that care by itself is far less profitable than the property development and property turnover. Similar to a loss leader.

Most people couldn't actually quantity the 'cost of care' as they are confused or don't know about the quantum of care associated with the various accomodations, they just assume that if the word 'care' is part of the accomodation type, then it must have 'care costs overheads', whereas for example, a 'care suite' has very little care costs overhead, compared to a communal care or hospital care.

Anyway, I agree, OCA has the highest gross dividend yield of the listed sector. It will be sufficient on payout or DRP to compensate somewhat for temporary capital fluctuations but whether it is sustainable remains to be seen. I think what some will be banking on, is that OCA has a billion+ portfolio of properties and a strong development pipeline, a massive discount to NTA (like sell everything now and the payout to shareholders is greater than the share price), ridiculous low PE, and is apparently cheap to buy on market.

The only thing holding back people from piling into OCA is the uncertainty of whether the market might serve up even more compellingly cheap acquisition prices. There's no need to blow the wad now if you can get it cheaper later. Trick is knowing when now or later is.

[Muse]

thanks baa baa. Seems I need to spread some reputation around before giving you a positive rep comment. also good insight - trying to crack the nut that is true (or close enough to it) care losses an important first step. cheers.

[ronaldson]

The Fair Work Commission in Australia has just ruled (in an interim decision to expedite the ability to implement its ruling) that more than 300,000 aged care workers will get a pay rise of 15% after finding that their work had been historically undervalued.

These are folk providing direct care in nursing homes and in in-home care.

The Albanese government has committed to funding the pay rise.

[Bjauck]

The Fair Work Commission in Australia has just ruled (in an interim decision to expedite the ability to implement its ruling) that more than 300,000 aged care workers will get a pay rise of 15% after finding that their work had been historically undervalued.

These are folk providing direct care in nursing homes and in in-home care.

The Albanese government has committed to funding the pay rise. It needs to be done, but who and which taxpayers will end up for these pay rises?

[ronaldson]

Clearly this determination will rachet up pressure within the sector here, and on Andrew Little. It may also contribute to exacerbating the flight of our workforce to Australia.

[Balance]

It needs to be done, but who and which taxpayers will end up for these pay rises?

Whoever employs them.

RV makes plenty so time for their workers to get fairly paid as well?

[Baa_Baa]

The Fair Work Commission in Australia has just ruled (in an interim decision to expedite the ability to implement its ruling) that more than 300,000 aged care workers will get a pay rise of 15% after finding that their work had been historically undervalued.

These are folk providing direct care in nursing homes and in in-home care.

The Albanese government has committed to funding the pay rise.

You're onto it! That 'just ruled' was literally yesterday, well spotted. In fact the ruling is for an 'interim' 15% increase, with subsequent stages considering the Union's application for 25% (a further 10%).

Here's the decision summary, if one reads it they will no doubt see the similarities with NZ: https://www.fwc.gov.au/documents/sites/work-value-aged-care/decisions-statements/2022fwcfb200-summary.pdf

The full decision is a lengthy document [2022] FWCFB 200 (pdf) (https://www.fwc.gov.au/documents/sites/work-value-aged-care/decisions-statements/2022fwcfb200.pdf)

Excerpt:

"An Interim Increase
[31] As to form and quantum of the interim increase the Full Bench concluded that it was satisfied that a 15 per cent interim increase in minimum wages of the direct care classifications in the Aged Care and SCHADS Awards and for nurses working in aged care covered by the Nurses Award is ‘plainly justified by work value reasons’.

[32] The Full Bench made it clear that the interim increase does not conclude its consideration of the Unions’ claim for a 25 per cent increase for other employees, namely administrative and support aged care employees. Nor was the Full Bench suggesting that the 15 per cent interim increase necessarily exhausts the extent of the increase justified by work value reasons in respect of direct care aged care employees. Whether any further increase is justified will be the subject of submissions in Stage 3 of these proceedings."

[Bjauck]

Whoever employs them.

RV makes plenty so time for their workers to get fairly paid as well? Of course. In NZ, rest home employment fair pay cost increases will no doubt be adequately covered under the maximum contributions, and rest homes don’t make as much as villages.

[Panda-NZ-]

It needs to be done, but who and which taxpayers will end up for these pay rises?

Aussies have large super accounts (approx $4T) combined with a housing market which has seen superior gains compared to NZ.

The residents could pay for it themselves. in theory.

[winner69]

Yeah I understand and agree with all that. I'm just nagged by the thought if it takes customers a lot longer to sell their place, does that mean slower turnover while the market remains in a funk, and if that impacts underlying earnings. ……….

I’m sure the slowing housing market (both number of sales and the increasing number of days to sell) has or is going to impact RV Underlying Earnings …….at least versus expectations sales volumes wise and possibly margins as well

[Maverick]

Hey Winner and Fiordland M, have a look at this:

This was posted by SUM 2.5 months ago…..
“We’re not seeing excesses of stock or any changes in demand either, our available retirement units have stayed steady, and demand doesn’t appear to be tethered to the property market.
“Enquiry levels remain high, and waitlists are strong and currently we’re not seeing any increase in days to sell or settle for people moving into a Summerset home. Our total sales for the half were 511, limited principally by availability of stock.”

Then this 1 month ago…
The Summerset CEO Scott Scoullar said the result was pleasing and demand for retirement living was strong.
“While the wider property market has seen a decline, interest in our villages has remained robust throughout Q3. Our waitlists grew five percent during the quarter with average levels of new monthly enquiries up approximately 15% compared with the first half of the year and up 18% compared to Q3 2021.

Then there is this from ARV 1 month ago….
We see continued strong demand for our retirement living offer with prices for retirement units remaining firm, even in a changing property market. Over the last two years there have been rapid increases in residential property prices, but our price increases have been conservative. This has provided us with a ‘pricing buffer’ and an ability to increase prices, despite the current residential market conditions.
We continue to see elevated levels of enquiries, particularly for villas and care suites. We are not seeing any build-up of stock and our deposited waitlists remain strong.

So I can't see any material problems so far within the industry. I also haven't seen any material problems in real life with anyone's real estate deals either. Seems to me everything is carrying on just fine so far…

[ronaldson]

The reality is (and as demonstrated by the comments above) that the " Boomer wave " has started to arrive and should not be underestimated. The first of the immediate post WW2 babies, born 1946 and beyond, are now reaching their mid 70's, the perfect age to enter an RV environment. They had a good life with free education, full employment mostly during their working lives, a responsive health system, and a very high proportion ended up owning their own home mortgage free.

This has been talked about for a long time, but it is actually here now. You can talk about the influence of the property market, interest rates and other economic statistics but in a wider macro sense nothing trumps the arrival of the Boomers as age appropriate for this industry's products as the prime factor driving the current outcome.

[Habits]

Hey Winner and Fiordland M, have a look at this:

This was posted by SUM 2.5 months ago…..
“We’re not seeing excesses of stock or any changes in demand either, our available retirement units have stayed steady, and demand doesn’t appear to be tethered to the property market.
“Enquiry levels remain high, and waitlists are strong and currently we’re not seeing any increase in days to sell or settle for people moving into a Summerset home. Our total sales for the half were 511, limited principally by availability of stock.”

Then this 1 month ago…
The Summerset CEO Scott Scoullar said the result was pleasing and demand for retirement living was strong.
“While the wider property market has seen a decline, interest in our villages has remained robust throughout Q3. Our waitlists grew five percent during the quarter with average levels of new monthly enquiries up approximately 15% compared with the first half of the year and up 18% compared to Q3 2021.

Then there is this from ARV 1 month ago….
We see continued strong demand for our retirement living offer with prices for retirement units remaining firm, even in a changing property market. Over the last two years there have been rapid increases in residential property prices, but our price increases have been conservative. This has provided us with a ‘pricing buffer’ and an ability to increase prices, despite the current residential market conditions.
We continue to see elevated levels of enquiries, particularly for villas and care suites. We are not seeing any build-up of stock and our deposited waitlists remain strong.

So I can't see any material problems so far within the industry. I also haven't seen any material problems in real life with anyone's real estate deals either. Seems to me everything is carrying on just fine so far…



They're not going to say the opposite Mav.

[winner69]

They're not going to say the opposite Mav.

And that’s why at the Oceania ASM when asked if the incessant full-page ads in newspapers from all village companies indicated slower demand the response was ‘it’s all about marketing for brand recognition’

Yeah right

[Rawz]

Spooky eh

Some punters love Fibonacci numbers

Gone past the 23.6% retracement from that $1.60 high ..... and the 38.2% retracement ..... and the 50.0% retracement (which was at $1.06) .... and the 61.8% retracement

Next stop maybe the 78.6% retracement at 74 cents
So I did my homework on this Fib stuff and basically once you calculate the levels the percentage represents the odds of that level holding?

So we are close to the bottom if you go by this method. Only problem I see is it can become a bit of a self fulfilling prophecy? Like everyone believes 74cents is next level of high support so why buy now, buy 74,75cents and save some money. Then there’s lots of demand at this level and magically a bit of support

[Baa_Baa]

They're not going to say the opposite Mav.


And that’s why at the Oceania ASM when asked if the incessant full-page ads in newspapers from all village companies indicated slower demand the response was ‘it’s all about marketing for brand recognition’

Yeah right

Interesting that you'd imply the CEO's of Summerset and Arvida are lying about solid demand, robust sales and prices, and reasons for marketing. Do you have something that supports your views?

[Maverick]

And that’s why at the Oceania ASM when asked if the incessant full-page ads in newspapers from all village companies indicated slower demand the response was ‘it’s all about marketing for brand recognition’


Yeah right
Was in a discussion recently about the swarm of RV ads running around the 6pm news recently. To me that also suggests too much supply and competition.

The response was, it IS just about branding plain and simple. On reflection I now have to agree. There's no specifics, no prices, no …”wait there’s more”…there's nothing actually for sale.
The companies are just laying into boomer brains (the only demographic that still watch the 6 pm news ) that these 4 companies are the only safe contenders to choose between when the time soon comes.

We all know from watching the actual news we no longer trust the catholic ones, not for profit ones nor those smaller offerings where there always seems to be one in hot water over something.

It's exactly the same as ASB’s “Ben and his tiny wife” , ANZs cricket family or Westpac's friendly sasquatch. These do nothing more than build brand trust and that's exactly what consumers must have when taking on a life long commitment such as an “until death”mortgage or the very last home.

It would be a very foolish or short term thinking to cut costs in this area. perhaps that's why I havnt seen a Bupa advert lately, being window dressed for sale?

Fun fact… Westpac havent had to pay even a cent to “where the wild things are” for any copyright as apparently it's not in any way connected……as you would say Winner …yeah right.

[percy]

Sensible comments Maverick.

[BlackPeter]

So I did my homework on this Fib stuff and basically once you calculate the levels the percentage represents the odds of that level holding?

So we are close to the bottom if you go by this method. Only problem I see is it can become a bit of a self fulfilling prophecy? Like everyone believes 74cents is next level of high support so why buy now, buy 74,75cents and save some money. Then there’s lots of demand at this level and magically a bit of support

Now you understand the fundamental principal of any TA! TA is in part about better describing the movement of investors (e.g. looking at volumes) ... and the reminder is about creating self fulfilling prophesies - people do watch various MA's, Fib numbers and similar and because they do and gamble on prices to bounce at certain points ... they often do.

Having said that - this realisation does not change the fact that these things do happen, i.e. TA is useful.

It is just - it is not describing some laws of nature, but just human psychology, which though - in a way - is obviously as well a part of nature.

[winner69]

Seems that Oceania has gone downhill in more ways than one since Earl left and Brent took over the reins

Maybe a bad move by Liz

[BlackPeter]

Seems that Oceania has gone downhill in more ways than one since Earl left and Brent took over the reins

Maybe a bad move by Liz

Must be a really bad omen this Brent taking over ... I guess since he started it was not just OCA dropping in value - RYM and ARV (and even SUM) did drop as well. And don't forget the property stocks, they all lost huge amounts of their listed value. Bad bad move to put him into office - winner says so, and he must be right - right?

But wait ... so many things happened in the last 18 months - and maybe it wasn't Brent at all causing everything from Putins war in the Ukraine, Chinas Zero Covid policy, high inflation world wide as well as dropping property prices.

Just a thought ... keep an open mind ;) ;

[winner69]

Must be a really bad omen this Brent taking over ... I guess since he started it was not just OCA dropping in value - RYM and ARV (and even SUM) did drop as well. And don't forget the property stocks, they all lost huge amounts of their listed value. Bad bad move to put him into office - winner says so, and he must be right - right?

But wait ... so many things happened in the last 18 months - and maybe it wasn't Brent at all causing everything from Putins war in the Ukraine, Chinas Zero Covid policy, high inflation world wide as well as dropping property prices.

Just a thought ... keep an open mind ;) ;

Sounds a bit like the Government -- nothings our fault or of our doing .....but Brent needs to do what the PM says 'we must communicate or wins better'

[BlackPeter]

Sounds a bit like the Government -- nothings our fault or of our doing .....but Brent needs to do what the PM says 'we must communicate or wins better'

I was just wondering why so many other companies went downhill as well. Do they all have bad CEO's?

Sometimes its not the fault of the captain if the ship hits a storm.

But yes, we do agree that OCA could communicate better, but this is one thing which didn't change since Brent took over :p .

[winner69]

I was just wondering why so many other companies went downhill as well. Do they all have bad CEO's?

Sometimes its not the fault of the captain if the ship hits a storm.

But yes, we do agree that OCA could communicate better, but this is one thing which didn't change since Brent took over :p .

I think Earl was out and about with investor groups more than Brent

Maybe Brent has to use more cool words like 'pivot' - that would get many excited ....and much cooler than inflection

[Muse]

Sensible comments Maverick.

Yes I agree, thanks Mav.

[Bjauck]

...
The companies are just laying into boomer brains (the only demographic that still watch the 6 pm news ) that these 4 companies are the only safe contenders to choose between when the time soon comes.
...

Not quite old enough to be a boomer, I have been watching TV One news online via the on demand app recently with someone from the "silent generation". The commercials are very repetitive. The Rymans "a full life" ad hardly mentions what they offer. It is full of seniors doing various activities. Overall it seems very condescending. Marketers say that ads that annoy are very effective. If so then I think Ryman is onto a winner in raising its profile.

A full life - Ryman
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qxW5xNkZVQ8

[Ggcc]

Not quite old enough to be a boomer, I have been watching TV One news online via the on demand app recently with someone from the "silent generation". The commercials are very repetitive. The Rymans "a full life" ad hardly mentions what they offer. It is full of seniors doing various activities. Overall it seems very condescending. Marketers say that ads that annoy are very effective. If so then I think Ryman is onto a winner in raising its profile.

A full life - Ryman
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qxW5xNkZVQ8

It maybe condescending, but their intention is working. From what I have witnessed I feel that those from the silent generation most are hardest on themselves.

They were the hardest working, most reliable, never took a sick day, as sickness was seen as a weekness. It’s only a cold etc.

So that when a retirement village pops up they may get annoyed as as they are not ready to enter the village. You can’t work towards the future thinking I’m only 80 years old plenty of life left. Your health can drop anytime and it’s best to be prepared mentally. The ads give you those subliminal messages

[Goose]

Not quite old enough to be a boomer, I have been watching TV One news online via the on demand app recently with someone from the "silent generation". The commercials are very repetitive. The Rymans "a full life" ad hardly mentions what they offer. It is full of seniors doing various activities. Overall it seems very condescending. Marketers say that ads that annoy are very effective. If so then I think Ryman is onto a winner in raising its profile.

A full life - Ryman
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qxW5xNkZVQ8

Just watched that ad, thanks. I am not sure how you find that to be condescending and what you want out of life and getting old...I am sure Rymans have plenty of focus groups and the like to assist in effective marketing. Winner would say that they must have over supply issues to be advertising - perhaps someone should tell Coca Cola to not bother with their marketing. Tui.

[Bjauck]

Just watched that ad, thanks. I am not sure how you find that to be condescending and what you want out of life and getting old...I am sure Rymans have plenty of focus groups and the like to assist in effective marketing. Winner would say that they must have over supply issues to be advertising - perhaps someone should tell Coca Cola to not bother with their marketing. Tui. I imagine it is effective….maybe also because of its repetitiveness in the online news slot. I find it disney-esque and somewhat preachy and syrupy.

@Ggcc I agree. By and large, generalising, the silent generation take things on the chin, and get on with things without a fuss unlike the subsequent generations.

[BlackPeter]

Not quite old enough to be a boomer, I have been watching TV One news online via the on demand app recently with someone from the "silent generation". The commercials are very repetitive. The Rymans "a full life" ad hardly mentions what they offer. It is full of seniors doing various activities. Overall it seems very condescending. Marketers say that ads that annoy are very effective. If so then I think Ryman is onto a winner in raising its profile.

A full life - Ryman
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qxW5xNkZVQ8

First time I have seen this ad - and this despite being a late boomer. I hardly watch TV ... and if I do, only prerecorded (i.e. I just skip any commercials). Anyway - I find the ad quite respectful and (for the people they want to address) quite touching.

Just imagine you are worried about your aging parents who might find it harder to deal with their daily routines (and lets face it - most of us will reach this phase at some stage). I think the Ryman ad is touching the right buttons.

I used to be in this situation when my father's health started to deteriorate (some years ago) after my mom had left ... and I am glad I found a good place for him, where I knew he was looked after and still could get the little luxuries of life.

Any child wants the best for their parents and wants them to enjoy their life in a safe and enjoyable place? Right?

That's what the ad is conveying (a good, enjoyable and safe place for elderly) ... why do you think it is condescending?

[Bjauck]

First time I have seen this ad - and this despite being a late boomer. I hardly watch TV ... and if I do, only prerecorded (i.e. I just skip any commercials). Anyway - I find the ad quite respectful and (for the people they want to address) quite touching.

Just imagine you are worried about your aging parents who might find it harder to deal with their daily routines (and lets face it - most of us will reach this phase at some stage). I think the Ryman ad is touching the right buttons.

I used to be in this situation when my father's health started to deteriorate (some years ago) after my mom had left ... and I am glad I found a good place for him, where I knew he was looked after and still could get the little luxuries of life.

Any child wants the best for their parents and wants them to enjoy their life in a safe and enjoyable place? Right?

That's what the ad is conveying (a good, enjoyable and safe place for elderly) ... why do you think it is condescending? It looks like I am outvoted on this ad! I know the benefits of RVs. it can be very difficult time of life. Maybe I expect greater specifics on what Ryman brings to the party and sets them apart.

[BlackPeter]

It looks like I am outvoted on this ad! I know the benefits of RVs. it can be very difficult time of life. Maybe I expect greater specifics on what Ryman brings to the party and sets them apart.

If this ad would be the only information they provide, than yes, I would agree. However - it is only a starting point to get people thinking about this option and to start some research.

I wouldn't expect a car commercial either to contain detailed technical data and comparisons with all competitors. Would you?

I do know (from some research as share holder) that both Ryman as well as Oceania (to return to the thread title) provide quite good information about their services, facilities, contracts and fees. Some of this information is however not online - you need to ask. I'd recommend as well to visit the villages you are considering - not once, but several times ... and talk with the residents. This will give you more than any TV ad could.

I suppose the other retirement villages (SUM, ARV) do that as well, but they I haven't yet researched in depth.

[winner69]

Anybody have ad stats (eg spend) and SOV for this sector

Be interesting

[winner69]

Oceania marketing all to do with Reimagining the aged care and retirement experiece

Ryman doing much the same with their Ryman Pioneers campaign (won an award last year)

I believe both are looking for more 'senior influencers' to lead the way on social media

[Bjauck]

If this ad would be the only information they provide, than yes, I would agree. However - it is only a starting point to get people thinking about this option and to start some research.

I wouldn't expect a car commercial either to contain detailed technical data and comparisons with all competitors. Would you?

I do know (from some research as share holder) that both Ryman as well as Oceania (to return to the thread title) provide quite good information about their services, facilities, contracts and fees. Some of this information is however not online - you need to ask. I'd recommend as well to visit the villages you are considering - not once, but several times ... and talk with the residents. This will give you more than any TV ad could.

I suppose the other retirement villages (SUM, ARV) do that as well, but they I haven't yet researched in depth. With a car ad, the car is usually centrally featured in the ad, sometimes with fuel consumption and engineering stats. With this Ryman ad there are several fleeting exterior and interior shots, that could be set in a motel unit, plus a load of, in my opinion, general platitudes. My opinion is probably a minority and no doubt the advertising will be positive for both Roman itself and others in the sector.

[ronaldson]

At last, the information vacuum is to be filled. Half-year results to be released to NZX on the morning of Wednesday 23 November, with a webcast at 11.00am that day.

I suspect the odds are more in favour of the outcome lifting the share price to at least the mid 80's, rather than declining to the mid 70's. New NTA per share will be interesting.

[winner69]

First half results

Last year they sold 129 new ORA and realised $15.3m on these. Also had 101 resales with realised gains of $10.6m. Total realised gains thus $25.9 and add $1.6m of other stuff first half Underlying Profit was $27.5

Have increased sales and make a bit more on each sale and this year Underlying Profit could easily get to $33.4m - up 20% odd on last year

Hope something like this happens -- wouldn't want to revert back to 'sell heaps more and make about the same' tradition would we

The sector needs to see Oceania doing well to get some 'love' going

Busy few weeks coming for results - RYM first off then OCA and last ARV.

Suppose the benchmark is SUM first half to June which saw Underlying Profit up 9% ...if OCA do 20% wow

[Poolboy]

Closed down at 81 cents. Markets didn't think much of it.

[ronaldson]

The issue is what will the market think of it (the half-year result) when it is released to NZX on 23 November.

There were said to be 550 apartments, villas and care suites under construction as at 31 March 2022, with around 300 of these expected to complete in y/e 31 March 2023. In y/e 31 March 2022 there were 450 sales, including care suites. Of these 210 were units (apartments or villas) and 240 were care suites. Of course, that aggregate figure of 450 includes both new builds and resales. Oceania's total stock is weighted roughly two thirds care beds and care suites and one third apartments and villas, at least prior to the recent acquisition activity.

We need to see a good build completion rate, and strong sales and resales of new and existing stock underpinning an increase in underlying profit, in turn providing for a lift in the interim dividend from the 2.1cps (not imputed) paid last year.

I bought around $19k worth within my trading account today and will hold until after the result is available and digested by the market.

[mike2020]

NZRB making a statement and interest rate change same day. Will make a difference I suspect.

[Balance]

I must admit I struggle to find OCA attractive to invest in despite its 43% fall in share price in the last year.

RV stocks are all about capital growth imo if you track their share prices relative to the property cycle & their pathetic dividend yield.

As an old timer said to me years ago, you cannot 'eat' capital growth unless you sell the stock on its way up. On the way down, you are having to eat capital!

We are first year into potentially a 5 year property down cycle so what's the big hurry to invest in any of them????

Outside of a takeover play, I struggle to see the upside in RV stocks in the next 2 years myself.

The trend is your friend.

[Baa_Baa]

I do wonder about the merit of dual listing on the ASX, it's so illiquid. For example today, so far - as the market is still open, there has been only one trade of 11 shares ($A7.00) which dropped the market price 6 cents or 7.6%.

Might have to ask about the ASX listing at the ASM, it's very expensive to list on the ASX.

[Balance]

I do wonder about the merit of dual listing on the ASX, it's so illiquid. For example today, so far - as the market is still open, there has been only one trade of 11 shares ($A7.00) which dropped the market price 6 cents or 7.6%.

Might have to ask about the ASX listing at the ASM, it's very expensive to list on the ASX.

Dual listing is great on the way up.

Very nasty on the way down as the Australian instos do not take any prisoners - they simply bail out.

[Maverick]

I can answer that one for you Baabaa straight from the top. ( I asked the same question. )

"Originally was set up when Maquarie was involved. The cost of the dual listing isnt much to maintain and it just might come in handy one day."

[percy]

I can answer that one for you Baabaa straight from the top. ( I asked the same question. )

"Originally was set up when Maquarie was involved. The cost of the dual listing isnt much to maintain and it just might come in handy one day."

Should they ever want to raise capital in Aussie,most Aussie intos will only lend to an Aussie listed company.[As explained to me by TRA].

[Baa_Baa]

Dual listing is great on the way up.

Very nasty on the way down as the Australian instos do not take any prisoners - they simply bail out.

Ha ha, nice one. I don't think an insto is likely to toss $7 at the market, but maybe one of their bots did it eh, saw some cheap shares on the Ask?

[Baa_Baa]

I can answer that one for you Baabaa straight from the top. ( I asked the same question. )

"Originally was set up when Maquarie was involved. The cost of the dual listing isnt much to maintain and it just might come in handy one day."

Thanks Mav, maybe I'm looking at it through the wrong lens, but listing fee and annual is an expense, albeit in the scheme of things not massive. https://www2.asx.com.au/listings/how-to-list/listing-fees But it has no purpose anymore, does it?

A nice surprise would be an Aussie acquisition :eek2:

[Baa_Baa]

Should they ever want to raise capital in Aussie,most Aussie intos will only lend to an Aussie listed company.[As explained to me by TRA].

That too. Are OCA looking for Aussie insto lending? Hasn't worked out so well for TRA, have you seen whats happened to their multi-mill investment in CL8 and their current holding % dilution and value? (sorry - off topic, should probably ask that in the TRA thread).

[Baa_Baa]

I must admit I struggle to find OCA attractive to invest in despite its 43% fall in share price in the last year.

RV stocks are all about capital growth imo if you track their share prices relative to the property cycle & their pathetic dividend yield.

As an old timer said to me years ago, you cannot 'eat' capital growth unless you sell the stock on its way up. On the way down, you are having to eat capital!

We are first year into potentially a 5 year property down cycle so what's the big hurry to invest in any of them????

Outside of a takeover play, I struggle to see the upside in RV stocks in the next 2 years myself.

The trend is your friend.

There's no big hurry as you say, until the chart says so, which it isn't. I think you'll find there's quite a few RV sector holders who don't trade, they just buy and hold, so on the thesis of solely capital growth, well that's not working out so well is it .. for any of them lately. But as the SP falls the dividend yields have moved as well, OCA currently 5.43% divi yield so that's some consolation in the meantime, and for DRP's these low SP's are boosting the holding and maintaining % shareholding. Some might say a dividend trap, but compared to the others who have woeful dividend yield, I'd rather be trapped here in OCA and quietly accumulate when I want to and go the hole hog when the market turns, as it will.

[percy]

That too. Are OCA looking for Aussie insto lending? Hasn't worked out so well for TRA, have you seen whats happened to their multi-mill investment in CL8 and their current holding % dilution and value? (sorry - off topic, should probably ask that in the TRA thread).

Seems to have worked just fine for EBO and HGH.

[bull....]

:scared: cypto carnage has brought out the sellers in oca by the look of it today

[winner69]

:scared: cypto carnage has brought out the sellers in oca by the look of it today

Shouldn't go below 79 should it?

[bull....]

Shouldn't go below 79 should it?

could do , esp if the democrats win lol

anyway i see aged care workers in aus just got a 15% payrise , looks like getting slaves opp's i mean carers to come to NZ IS going to get even tougher

Aged care workers are getting a 15 per cent pay rise

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-09/is-15-per-cent-pay-rise-for-aged-care-workers-enough/101631292

[Balance]

Shouldn't go below 79 should it?

Volume of offers at 80c building up relentlessly?

Needs a big buyer to to turn the sentiment towards the upside.

Or for the big seller(s) to bail out with a big crossing of several million shares at say 78c?

Meanwhile, property prices in NZ continue to drop relentlessly :

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/118363/average-value-nz-homes-down-113000-start-year-according-qv-figures

So far this year the national average value has declined by $113,000, with the biggest decline of $198,000 or 18%, occurring in the Wellington Region, followed by Auckland -$193,000 or 12%, Tauranga -$129,000, Hastings -$112,000, Palmerston North -$112,000, Napier -$110,000 and Hamilton -$95,000 or 11%.

Those figures and the current rate of decline suggest that by end of this year, average dwelling values in Auckland and Wellington could have declined by more than $200,000 during 2022.

[Onemootpoint]

Shouldn't go below 79 should it?

Seems it has - low of 78c last few minutes.

*edit - typo

[bull....]

mthly bollinger has lower band at 70c this week

[Balance]

Seems it has - low of 78c last few minutes.

*edit - typo

Looks like institutional volume sellers vs small volume retail buyers (average of 4,250 shares per buyer at 78c bid).

Only one way this stock is going until the institutional sellers have finished selling.

[bull....]

comparison of caregiver hourly rates nz - av $26
aus av $ 30 -$40

and need to add on the 15% pay rise aussie just got + potential for more to come apparently and you can see most migrants will head to aus first or in fact leave nz to go to aus :scared: care assisttant crisis coming .... no cabbage available either for residents to expensive now :scared: arv and oca most exposed .... no wonder nobody wanted to buy bupa

[Balance]

comparison of caregiver hourly rates nz - av $26
aus av $ 30 -$40

and need to add on the 15% pay rise aussie just got + potential for more to come apparently and you can see most migrants will head to aus first or in fact leave nz to go to aus :scared: care assisttant crisis coming .... no cabbage available either for residents to expensive now :scared: arv and oca most exposed .... no wonder nobody wanted to buy bupa

TIMBURRRRRRR ?

Music to your shorting ears, bullshxt?

[Baa_Baa]

Looks like institutional volume sellers vs small volume retail buyers (average of 4,250 shares per buyer at 78c bid).

Only one way this stock is going until the institutional sellers have finished selling.

Do you think the declining daily volume (https://invst.ly/zhfec), especially since October, to a now measly daily average of 160k shares, supports the theory of institutional sellers selling down?

[Baa_Baa]

comparison of caregiver hourly rates nz - av $26
aus av $ 30 -$40

and need to add on the 15% pay rise aussie just got

Do you just make sh1t up? The article you posted gives you the actual numbers, and they are NOT what you have pulled out of your derrière here.

[bull....]

Do you just make sh1t up? The article you posted gives you the actual numbers, and they are NOT what you have pulled out of your derrière here.

the numbers are from seek aus thats why i said 30 - 40
told you to keep off the boiled cabbage .... cabbage head

[winner69]

Heard this 'If you don't know where the yield comes from, you are the yield.'

OCA yield close to 5% .... good question though is where does this come from?

[ronaldson]

It boggles my mind somewhat, not being from an accountancy background, but the dividends (currently 4.4c in aggregate pa) are not imputed. The Annual Report for y/e 31 March 2022 includes a statement that there are $130.3m available tax losses as at that date (accrued incrementally since 2015 I believe) so imputed dividends are not coming any time soon. When looking at yield as a return on investment there is a big difference.

[Balance]

Do you think the declining daily volume (https://invst.ly/zhfec), especially since October, to a now measly daily average of 160k shares, supports the theory of institutional sellers selling down?

It does imo.

Institutions, when they start their initial down weighting, normally have a price point which they sell down to. So initial volumes will be large as buyers, be them retail &/or instos, absorb the selldown.

Then, the buyers run out of firepower or suffer buyers’ fatigue - resulting in lower volumes but the institutional sellers keep selling to their price point.

What is telling to me is the average volume per buyer on the bid side vs on the offer side - clear to me that there are a lot of retail buyers vs a few institutional sellers.

[winner69]

I thought the carnage was over 3 months ago when share price went back over $1 - (like 'we'll never see $1 again)

But heck looking at a 3 month chart its been downhill since - almost in a straight line .... further 24% down

Chatter on forums says Oceania in the mid 60's on the cards - at this rate by Christmas - esp if insto's keep drip feeding the market

mind you sum other charts not looking too good either but those sum other ones the line is not so steep

[bull....]

:scared::scared: Newshub can reveal since July, the Government has signed off on employers to recruit 1097 aged care nurses from overseas, while 95 nurses have applied and 69 have been approved.But only five have arrived in the country.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2022/11/jacinda-ardern-grant-robertson-react-to-pictures-of-them-in-80s-as-aged-sector-calls-for-more-funding.html

and the ones left continue to burn out and leave ?

[850man]

:scared::scared: Newshub can reveal since July, the Government has signed off on employers to recruit 1097 aged care nurses from overseas, while 95 nurses have applied and 69 have been approved.But only five have arrived in the country.

and the ones left continue to burn out and leave ?

Those that applied likely applied to Aussie as well - better pay rates, no wage freeze, lower grocery prices and immediate residency likely swayed them away from NZ

[nizzy]

Those that applied likely applied to Aussie as well - better pay rates, no wage freeze, lower grocery prices and immediate residency likely swayed them away from NZ

its a bit weird how hard it is for nurses to move, apart from NZ to Australia.
Daughter RN has moved to Canada (BC), but not nursing as takes at least 1 year and $10k to get registration, and can take 2 yrs. And yet they crying out for nurses same as NZ, Aus, UK etc. So she is working in a skifield cafe.

[Balance]

I thought the carnage was over 3 months ago when share price went back over $1 - (like 'we'll never see $1 again)

But heck looking at a 3 month chart its been downhill since - almost in a straight line .... further 24% down

Chatter on forums says Oceania in the mid 60's on the cards - at this rate by Christmas - esp if insto's keep drip feeding the market

Evident yesterday when the seller(s) left the market close offers at 80c, giving the illusion that they have finished selling down to 79c - so retail investors get sucked into putting in bids.

Like I wrote before, watch for some decent size crossings (millions of shares) and that's when other instos see value and are starting to accummulate.

Meanwhile, it is grim out there for the property sector. One of my friends just got approved for a 30 year mortgage by Westpac to buy a property he cannot afford - that's how desperate the banks are to lend.

[Getty]

Meanwhile, it is grim out there for the property sector. One of my friends just got approved for a 30 year mortgage by Westpac to buy a property he cannot afford - that's how desperate the banks are to lend.

That's a surprise and a concern.

One would expect banks to be more prudent.

Short memories eh?

[Getty]

:scared::scared: Newshub can reveal since July, the Government has signed off on employers to recruit 1097 aged care nurses from overseas, while 95 nurses have applied and 69 have been approved.But only five have arrived in the country.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2022/11/jacinda-ardern-grant-robertson-react-to-pictures-of-them-in-80s-as-aged-sector-calls-for-more-funding.html

and the ones left continue to burn out and leave ?

Won't be long before rest homes become BYO.

Byo staff that is.

[Balance]

That's a surprise and a concern.

One would expect banks to be more prudent.

Short memories eh?

I have told him to negotiate the terms of the mortgage, given how desperate the bank is to lend to them (him & his partner).

They think they are getting a great deal on the Manukau City region new property at 28% off last year’s price. But they cannot afford it even at that heavily ‘discounted’ price.

[BlackPeter]

I thought the carnage was over 3 months ago when share price went back over $1 - (like 'we'll never see $1 again)

But heck looking at a 3 month chart its been downhill since - almost in a straight line .... further 24% down

Chatter on forums says Oceania in the mid 60's on the cards - at this rate by Christmas - esp if insto's keep drip feeding the market

mind you sum other charts not looking too good either but those sum other ones the line is not so steep


You forgot to mention that according to your chart shares will be free come next year spring ... and give it another year holders will need to pay 80 cents per share to get rid of them to avoid paying a penalty of $1.60 another year later ... :) ;

Long live the power of linear extrapolation :p !

[Bjauck]

Evident yesterday when the seller(s) left the market close offers at 80c, giving the illusion that they have finished selling down to 79c - so retail investors get sucked into putting in bids.

Like I wrote before, watch for some decent size crossings (millions of shares) and that's when other instos see value and are starting to accummulate.

Meanwhile, it is grim out there for the property sector. One of my friends just got approved for a 30 year mortgage by Westpac to buy a property he cannot afford - that's how desperate the banks are to lend.
He is an idiot to buy a property he thinks he cannot afford. I presume you are privy to all his financial affairs to know this as well.

[Balance]

He is an idiot to buy a property he thinks he cannot afford. I presume you are privy to all his financial affairs to know this as well.

You know the old story - family & friends to the rescue to bridge the affordability gap.

They have not accepted the bank's mortgage loan offer yet - another 3 working days to accept before the offer lapses.

I am posting the story so everyone is aware of what's happening out there.

[TFA]

That's a surprise and a concern.

One would expect banks to be more prudent.

Short memories eh?
One persons story doesn't tell the picture. I can share a different story which possibly paints the opposite view of banks current lending practices. I know a couple with exceptionally high incomes and 2 homes who are well set up and getting close to retirement. They spotted a dream town house which came onto market so thought they would buy it and then downsize from their main family home if they bought it. Apparently their bank had zero appetite for providing them bridging finance. Was gobsmacked when they told me this and my conclusion was banks are tightening up big time.

[percy]

One persons story doesn't tell the picture. I can share a different story which possibly paints the opposite view of banks current lending practices. I know a couple with exceptionally high incomes and 2 homes who are well set up and getting close to retirement. They spotted a dream town house which came onto market so thought they would buy it and then downsize from their main family home if they bought it. Apparently their bank had zero appetite for providing them bridging finance. Was gobsmacked when they told me this and my conclusion was banks are tightening up big time.
They should contact General Capital Ltd on 09-304 0145 .They are a listed NZX company whose business is bridging finance on residential properties.

[traineeinvestor]

One persons story doesn't tell the picture. I can share a different story which possibly paints the opposite view of banks current lending practices. I know a couple with exceptionally high incomes and 2 homes who are well set up and getting close to retirement. They spotted a dream town house which came onto market so thought they would buy it and then downsize from their main family home if they bought it. Apparently their bank had zero appetite for providing them bridging finance. Was gobsmacked when they told me this and my conclusion was banks are tightening up big time.

In July I was told by lending officers at two banks that they no longer provide bridging finance. Also, the paperwork demands for loans to people who do not have regular employment income are insane.

[ronaldson]

Article in Stuff drawing attention to the terrific billboard by Aged Care Matters depicting Ardern and Robertson aged 82 noting NZ needs 66100 more aged care beds when Ardern reaches that age.

Spokesperson Dr Chris Gallavin, CEO of the Sisters of Compassion Group is quoted as saying " aged care in NZ is on the precipice of a national disaster ". He is involved with St Josephs Home of Compassion in Upper Hutt, which has half of its beds closed because it has only half of the nurses it needs. This Catholic facility is 87 beds providing Rest Home, Dementia, Respite, Hospital and Convalescent Care and the website specifically notes it does not have any premium charge rooms.

Local media reported in September this year that it had only remained (partially) open because of the intervention by Norah Barlow, now CEO of Heritage Lifecare (which has 44 facilities) with that organisation providing support and working alongside St Josephs to keep it going. And that will be despite a number of the Catholic Sisters providing care at no doubt less than market costs due to their religious calling.

Yet another tale highlighting this Government's policy failings with regard to the sector. Only the premium care model can survive the current circumstances and the NZX pricing of, for example, OCA and ARV indicates they are on life support.

[winner69]

Sign the petition

https://www.change.org/p/fund-our-future-fund-aged-care?recruiter=1284956858&recruited_by_id=819e2160-5f06-11ed-9f1e-c55f246d324b&utm_source=share_petition&utm_campaign=share_petition&utm_term=petition_dashboard&utm_medium=copylink&utm_content=cl_sharecopy_34932411_en-AU%3A2

[Poolboy]

Well... What did you expect with this bunch of halfwits in government. Anyone who voted for them should be ashamed of themselves.

[bull....]

i think unemployed people should be forced to change , wash and feed old people in rest homes before receiving there dole money. fixed the problem straight away

[allfromacell]

i think unemployed people should be forced to change , wash and feed old people in rest homes before receiving there dole money. fixed the problem straight away

The majority of NZs remaining unemployed are either unable to work (disabled) or mostly unemployable. I do not want the person muttering to himself as he stumbles down Queen Street anywhere near my parents lol

[Poolboy]

i think unemployed people should be forced to change , wash and feed old people in rest homes before receiving there dole money. fixed the problem straight away

Or they could at least pick fruit and vegetables. It's not that complicated.

[Balance]

Article in Stuff drawing attention to the terrific billboard by Aged Care Matters depicting Ardern and Robertson aged 82 noting NZ needs 66100 more aged care beds when Ardern reaches that age.

Spokesperson Dr Chris Gallavin, CEO of the Sisters of Compassion Group is quoted as saying " aged care in NZ is on the precipice of a national disaster ". He is involved with St Josephs Home of Compassion in Upper Hutt, which has half of its beds closed because it has only half of the nurses it needs. This Catholic facility is 87 beds providing Rest Home, Dementia, Respite, Hospital and Convalescent Care and the website specifically notes it does not have any premium charge rooms.

Local media reported in September this year that it had only remained (partially) open because of the intervention by Norah Barlow, now CEO of Heritage Lifecare (which has 44 facilities) with that organisation providing support and working alongside St Josephs to keep it going. And that will be despite a number of the Catholic Sisters providing care at no doubt less than market costs due to their religious calling.

Yet another tale highlighting this Government's policy failings with regard to the sector. Only the premium care model can survive the current circumstances and the NZX pricing of, for example, OCA and ARV indicates they are on life support.

Ardern & her clueless mob shut the borders to almost all skilled migrants during 2020, 2021 & through to July 2022, then was extremely slow to open up.

The opportunity was there to attract skilled workers like nurses during that time - now it is all too late.

Other countries have beaten NZ to the punch with more attractive offers and easier entries.

In fact, NZ is losing skilled workers like nurses to Australia!!!!!

imagine - 1 nurse on average has migrated to NZ since July!!!!!!!

What happened to the hordes of skilled workers lining up to come to NZ, as claimed by Ardern?

Impossible to make this stuff up.

[SailorRob]

i think unemployed people should be forced to change , wash and feed old people in rest homes before receiving there dole money. fixed the problem straight away

Bloody hell, something we agree on.

[SailorRob]

Well... Actually I'm unemployed...

[bull....]

Well... Actually I'm unemployed...

there you go your new career is awaiting ...

[mike2020]

I heard yesterday they are importing Filipino truck drivers, I think 50 from memory, at $37.50 an hour for work around Tauranga. Imagine what a caregiver or nurse will be worth!

[Bjauck]

I heard yesterday they are importing Filipino truck drivers, I think 50 from memory, at $37.50 an hour for work around Tauranga. Imagine what a caregiver or nurse will be worth! Until we get a fully Americanised Health system, it depends on the relative generosity of the taxpayer versus private enterprise with respect to supply and demand. Public Health can become even more rudimentary yet.

[BlackPeter]

Or they could at least pick fruit and vegetables. It's not that complicated.

Actually - it is.

Friends do have a walnut farm ... and it is incredible how much damage even one moron can do when mixing different sorts and qualities of nuts because they are too lazy (or too dumb) to properly sort them.

Small nuts go into this bucket, large nuts in that bucket and the premium nuts over there. Getting it wrong does mean a quite substantial loss for the farm. Of course are all the workers trained, but still - some of them never get it.

[Getty]

That makes the boss nut off!

[Bjauck]

Or they could at least pick fruit and vegetables. It's not that complicated. You should have seen the mess made at "pick your own strawberry" patch I went to in S. Auckland....Perhaps the farmer opened it up to the public quite early n the season because they could not get sufficient trained able pickers? Back-breaking work would eliminate quite a few less-abled unemployed folk for a start.

[ronaldson]

It is clear that in future we will all have to pay more for aged care either for ourselves or our relatives. The standard (non-premium) historical model is being incrementally destroyed in this country. So it will come down to what you can afford, and this will exacerbate existing divisions in our society.

I have been visiting/looking at various retirement villages in Auckland, having become age appropriate for this exercise, to see how it is. Despite Auckland being ethnically diverse and multi-cultural these are basically havens/communities for white folk, with a very minor leavening of others but virtually no Māori or Pacifica. I know the demographic of those segments of our population is heavily skewed to younger persons and that those communities have a different model for looking after their elderly, but still it is eye opening given the proprietors obviously do not discriminate with respect to admissions.

So the question is - how will it be going forward? Clearly, what will be on offer will be much more strictly dependent on what you can pay and there will be a fast-increasing number who cannot afford the price of care. This is what the Aged Care Matters billboard is drawing attention to, and there is no incentive for anyone now to provide/construct other than the premium care model. I don't begrudge nurses and other carers the greater recognition via the belated remuneration increases that are starting to flow but the inevitable consequence is that the basic rest home operation is no longer viable, and the asset base represented is gradually being applied to other uses. So beds will simply not be there.

[Panda-NZ-]

Europeans should consider their parents moving in with them in their large empty homes during the day (govt can pay them a substantial fee and still save money).

Free childcare this way too.

[Bjauck]

It is clear that in future we will all have to pay more for aged care either for ourselves or our relatives. The standard (non-premium) historical model is being incrementally destroyed in this country. So it will come down to what you can afford, and this will exacerbate existing divisions in our society.

I have been visiting/looking at various retirement villages in Auckland, having become age appropriate for this exercise, to see how it is. Despite Auckland being ethnically diverse and multi-cultural these are basically havens/communities for white folk, with a very minor leavening of others but virtually no Māori or Pacifica. I know the demographic of those segments of our population is heavily skewed to younger persons and that those communities have a different model for looking after their elderly, but still it is eye opening given the proprietors obviously do not discriminate with respect to admissions.

So the question is - how will it be going forward? Clearly, what will be on offer will be much more strictly dependent on what you can pay and there will be a fast-increasing number who cannot afford the price of care. This is what the Aged Care Matters billboard is drawing attention to, and there is no incentive for anyone now to provide/construct other than the premium care model. I don't begrudge nurses and other carers the greater recognition via the belated remuneration increases that are starting to flow but the inevitable consequence is that the basic rest home operation is no longer viable, and the asset base represented is gradually being applied to other uses. So beds will simply not be there.

There are already great economic divisions in this country, which got worse with asset price inflation. The rate of owner-occupied home ownership rates for Maori and Pacifica is much less than that for Europeans. So, apart from cultural differences, that is another reason why you see fewer non-European faces at villages. Government policies that have enabled massive untaxed capital gains from home ownership have therefore ended up benefiting Europeans disproportionately. Also many of the more recent Asian immigrants have yet to reach the minimum age for village life.

[Bjauck]

Europeans should consider their parents moving in with them in their large empty homes during the day (govt can even pay them a substantial fee and still save).

Free childcare that way too. It is quite often the grandparents who have the larger homes with gardens. So maybe the kids and grandkids should move in with the grandparents!

[ronaldson]

Bjauck - I have always thought that an underrated circumstance is the inheritance factor. If your community tends to larger family sizes, then not only is there less to go around while you are young but what comes down the generations, if anything, has to be more divisible when finally received. It's like the situation with the Protestants and the Catholics in Ireland when contraception was deemed sinful. So breaking the cycle of being less wealthy is difficult.

And the Indian and Asian communities tend to place even more value on education than Europeans in general, so lift themselves that way. But reasoning along these lines is basically taboo in this country, and solutions are lacking and blame is allocated to other causes.

[Poolboy]

Actually - it is.

Friends do have a walnut farm ... and it is incredible how much damage even one moron can do when mixing different sorts and qualities of nuts because they are too lazy (or too dumb) to properly sort them.

Small nuts go into this bucket, large nuts in that bucket and the premium nuts over there. Getting it wrong does mean a quite substantial loss for the farm. Of course are all the workers trained, but still - some of them never get it.

Sorry, I shouldn't laugh. I feel for your friends. I wonder how these people get on in normal day to day life. Sadly they breed like flies so we have new generations of morons emerging.



You should have seen the mess made at "pick your own strawberry" patch I went to in S. Auckland....Perhaps the farmer opened it up to the public quite early n the season because they could not get sufficient trained able pickers? Back-breaking work would eliminate quite a few less-abled unemployed folk for a start.

LOL Mayhem.

[Poolboy]

OCA and RYM have picked up quite well today :)

[Bjauck]

Bjauck - I have always thought that an underrated circumstance is the inheritance factor. If your community tends to larger family sizes, then not only is there less to go around while you are young but what comes down the generations, if anything, has to be more divisible when finally received. It's like the situation with the Protestants and the Catholics in Ireland when contraception was deemed sinful. So breaking the cycle of being less wealthy is difficult.

And the Indian and Asian communities tend to place even more value on education than Europeans in general, so lift themselves that way. But reasoning along these lines is basically taboo in this country, and solutions are lacking and blame is allocated to other causes.

Breaking the cycle of being less wealthy is so difficult in NZ, which taxes income and goods and services but not wealth or even capital gains from mucn of that wealth. The result is assets becoming ever more unaffordable for the asset-less income earners. The large family should be able to get ahead with their contribution to the much needed workforce. They should be able to earn big bucks as much needed carers in rest homes - however not in this NZ.

[Ferg]

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/forumdisplay.php?8-Off-Market-Discussions

[Maverick]

Thought I’d do one last post before the big day next Wednesday that might be interesting to some.
I’m picking this result will surprise the market. I know that’s a big call but here’s why.

The biggest profit driver far above all the usual incremental gains on DMFs and resales etc ( yes, care should rise this time too) is the new sale gains on specifically….apartments.
OCA won’t tell anyone the composition of empty NEW stock on hand, this includes the analysts. The only way to work it out is to go right back to the beginning and add / subtract new deliveries and sales since. Only a full database tracking the changes will give the new empty stock numbers. After listening many times to the latest FY21 webinar it was very clear even the anylists were caught out badly by the general total , non specific, empty new stock numbers. ( suggesting to me they don’t do the above process)

It has been well covered on this forum that OCA have now moved the focus on care suite construction ( in order to free up prime land) and are now well underway completing and selling the subsequent new apartments

Because It seems clear people arnt aware of actual empty apartment stock available at the beginning of this HY. Therefore the market won’t have worked out is that there plenty of apartments now (circa 160, that’s 50 % more than usual ) available to sell. Oca normally make around $10m per HY but this HY should see that rise another $5m , seemingly out of the blue.

This is the beginning of the very profitable and sustainable new growth phase that OCA is now in. This sets it apart from its competitors which have a more linear and consistent development model.
ARV in fact is at the opposite stage where it is having to now add caresuites to compliment its recent large village purchases. I expect ARV and OCA share prices will decouple at this point when their 2 quite different results come out shortly.

As previously stated, I’m still predicting a 4.5 c EPS. This will be the precursor to many good EPS rises henceforth and then a blinder next FY when The Helier and Windermere apartments start selling.

No need to cross fingers for next Wednesday, it’s all just physics and maths with known numbers which will culminate into a very pleasing result.

[justakiwi]

I can't wait. Thank you! :)

[Rawz]

Nice one Mav. Your post exudes confidence. Looking forward to the HY results

[850man]

Awesome post Mav. Fingers crossed it plays out as such on Wednesday

[percy]

I can't wait. Thank you! :)

Me too.......lol.
And as always thank you Maverick for your posts.

[Beau]

Thanks for putting in the time Maverick and sharing.

[ronaldson]

Daily on-market volume has been particularly heavy for an NZX listing for some time now as the share price has incrementally fallen over the last 12 months. 715m shares on issue and regularly over 1m trading per day. So who is buying and who is selling?

Around 80c seems to be the level underpinning the market and DB says that is close to a 5.5% yield, albeit unimputed, on a 4.4cps annual dividend. And if Maverick is anywhere near right the interim dividend should be more than last year's 2.1cps and therefore yield will increase if the share price is unchanged.

I wonder thou if apartment sales will really be as healthy as Maverick predicts. All the major retirement village operators are advertising stock furiously just now and with the property market undergoing shock treatment current sales/pricing may not be quite as robust as once expected. Am I correct that Ryman are the next cab off the rank this reporting season? If so, that will be useful guidance as to how it really is ''out there".

[Onemootpoint]

Good posts by Maverick and Ronaldson.

Interesting (said tongue in cheek) the share price moved from 79c to 82c since the post…..ST-ders buying??

[winner69]

Good posts by Maverick and Ronaldson.

Interesting (said tongue in cheek) the share price moved from 79c to 82c since the post…..ST-ders buying??

Thought that as well

Just the start of the run up in the share price pre announcement ….expecting good results andincreased divies

Three days to come ….maybe 85 plus by Wed

Won’t be a case of buy the the rumour sell the fact …as it’ll be good.

I said a few weeks ago $40m underlying ..more than Mav I think



……my guess is that'll they would have sold 240 contracts for realised gains of $45m and then had a $5m shortfall/loss on care giving them Underlying Earnings of $40m - not bad v $27.5m last year.

[ralph]

It will never be one dollar again!!!lol we are not going to get too carried away are we winner

[winner69]

Jeez, Ryman boomer of result - Unaudited underlying profit of $138.8 million, up 44.8% on the same period last year, driven by strong resale margins

Got a lot of confidence in my $40m underlying for OCA - about the same sort of increase as Ryman

Looking forward to next Wednesday

[Baa_Baa]

Jeez, Ryman boomer of result - Unaudited underlying profit of $138.8 million, up 44.8% on the same period last year, driven by strong resale margins

Got a lot of confidence in my $40m underlying for OCA - about the same sort of increase as Ryman

Looking forward to next Wednesday

RYM very good result, profit, resales, occupancy. Bodes well

[bull....]

dont get fooled people cashflows are tightening in the sector

[winner69]

Looking at Ryman selling prices and margins I think I'm a bit light on the realised gains forecast for OCA .... but the shortfall/loss on care will possibly be a lot higher .... so I'll stick to my $40m ..... but could be higher (last year $27m something

Looking good

[ronaldson]

Cashflows are tightening, not least because overheads in the sector are increasing at a rate of knots.

I did note earlier (13785) that the gazetted increase in care funding rates effective from 1 September 2022 is 5.5%, which, while less than the current rate of inflation (and the actual rate will be magnified in this sector), will assist those with both premium and non-premium beds going forward, OCA and ARV in particular. So, 1 month contribution in this half year result but the full new subsidy contribution to come through in the second period. Of course, it's looking like that will simply be more than offset by continuing high inflation.

[bottomfeeder]

Lower house prices in US are slowing. UK has inflation of 11 percent.
I believe that inflation is finally being factored in the values of existing housing stock. Second hand houses will start to firm up in price. You just can't build new houses cheap anymore even if you could get the staff and materials.

Underfunding by Govt for only basic care units
is the problem which will sort itself sooner rather than later. Other care units excess will have to be paid for by the relatively rich boomers. And there are so many of them coming through now and in the next ten years.

Let's see if the retirement industry is going to reduce dividends to take advantage of the lower SP. It becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. All in all annoyed that the market is oversold, but have a longer term view over the next three or so years. Am happy to sit tight.

[RTM]

Thought that as well

Just the start of the run up in the share price pre announcement ….expecting good results and increased divies

Three days to come ….maybe 85 plus by Wed ...etc

k

Certainly not expecting an increase in dividend...will be amazed if we are lucky enough to get that.

[Poolboy]

Wow, I'm pleased I'm not too into RYM. $7.62 closing today. Phew.

[Balance]

Wow, I'm pleased I'm not too into RYM. $7.62 closing today. Phew.

Market supposed to look forward - not backward so Ryman's sp action may not be too surprising.

Just been offered a piece of dirt by a developer via a real estate agent in Manukau City - I burst out laughing when the agent told me that the developer is prepared to cut his losses by offering one of his pieces of land (400m2 on builders' terms no less) for $100k below what he paid last year. Price reduced from $900k to $800k when we had already been offered another piece of dirt (500m2) around the corner (elevated with city views) for $725k! We countered offer at $550k for a home to be built for a family moving to Auckland from Hamilton. Vendor said he will wait but we checked the title and there's a huge million dollar mortgage from ANZ Bank on the land.

Ever higher interest rates and dropping land prices = CRUNCH!

Point being that there are many a property player still living in dreamland out there so the real pain is yet to be felt.

[winner69]

Shareclarity has a DCF value of $1.19 for OCA

Share pricecwill get there one day next year

[percy]

From Market Screener;
Consensus
SellBuy
Mean consensus BUY
Number of Analysts 4
Last Close Price 0,80 NZD
Average target price 1,43 NZD
Spread / Average Target 78,8%
High Price Target 1,77 NZD
Spread / Highest target 121%
Low Price Target 1,20 NZD
Spread / Lowest Target 50,0%

Offcourse the above does not include any dividend.

Say OCA declare a 4 cent divie.?
Shareclarity target price $1.19 plus 4 cent divie is $1.23 and increase of 43 cents or 53.75% on last sale price of 80 cents.
On highest Market screener price $1.77 plus divie is $1.81 a $1.01 increase or 126.25% on last sale price of 80 cents.


ps.After finishing my OCA buying yesterday at 80 cents, I will be more than happy should OCA reach the very lowest target price.
However I have purchased these as a long term hold .

[BlackPeter]

From Market Screener;
Consensus
SellBuy
Mean consensus BUY
Number of Analysts 4
Last Close Price 0,80 NZD
Average target price 1,43 NZD
Spread / Average Target 78,8%
High Price Target 1,77 NZD
Spread / Highest target 121%
Low Price Target 1,20 NZD
Spread / Lowest Target 50,0%

Offcourse the above does not include any dividend.

Say OCA declare a 4 cent divie.?
Shareclarity target price $1.19 plus 4 cent divie is $1.23 and increase of 43 cents or 53.75% on last sale price of 80 cents.
On highest Market screener price $1.77 plus divie is $1.81 a $1.01 increase or 126.25% on last sale price of 80 cents.

You are right re the forecasts.

Thing is just - analyst predictions are unfortunately meaningless. I followed them for a number of stocks for some years and compared them to the share price 12 months after the forecast. There is no meaningful correlation between forecasts and future share price, other that in uptrends analysts seem to be more often correct, which only says that analysts tend to be optimistic.

Anyway - having said that, I agree that OCA is currently undervalued based on its earning potential ... and am holding a fair number myself.

[percy]

You are right re the forecasts.

Thing is just - analyst predictions are unfortunately meaningless. I followed them for a number of stocks for some years and compared them to the share price 12 months after the forecast. There is no meaningful correlation between forecasts and future share price, other that in uptrends analysts seem to be more often correct, which only says that analysts tend to be optimistic.

Anyway - having said that, I agree that OCA is currently undervalued based on its earning potential ... and am holding a fair number myself.

I did add a ps to my post that I had finished my [long term] OCA buying at 80 cents yesterday.
I have recently made good money on three take over stocks in Aussie,PTB,PTG and MSL,as well as selling out of IVZ..Also I reduced my overweight position in Silver Fern Farms on unlisted in NZ.
These funds have been recycled into HGH,OCA,a few more AFT, and an initial holding in SCIL [unlisted].Plus added to my cash position.I still have buy orders in for more AFT and GEN in NZ.

[Entrep]

Vendor said he will wait but we checked the title and there's a huge million dollar mortgage from ANZ Bank on the land.

How are you able to see the size of a mortgage?


Thing is just - analyst predictions are unfortunately meaningless.

Analysts promote what their sales teams tell them to, simple as that. Many heavily shilled stocks by Craigs absolutely rekt in the last year that they miraculously then get sales work from (NZK, etc).

[winner69]

Good to see so many sharetraders still mopping up the stock that the fundies/instos are selling/off loading

[percy]

When looking at my portfolio I held no retailers in NZ,nothing in the retirement or property sectors.
OCA appealed for a number of reasons.
Property with a huge tail wind of people reaching their target market.
NTA of $1.32.Even at a 20% disc [$1.05] is still still 31.25% higher than my 80 cent purchase price.
Maverick and Ferg's research makes good sense to me.
I am also a big fan of Chair Liz Coutts and major shareholder/director Gregg Tomlinson..

[Balance]

How are you able to see the size of a mortgage?



Via Property Guru document ordering service via a real estate agent - instrument details.

[Baa_Baa]

Good to see so many sharetraders still mopping up the stock that the fundies/instos are selling/off loading


When looking at my portfolio I held no retailers in NZ,nothing in the retirement or property sectors.
OCA appealed for a number of reasons.
Property with a huge tail wind of people reaching their target market.
NTA of $1.32.Even at a 20% disc [$1.05] is still still 31.25% higher than my 80 cent purchase price.
Maverick and Ferg's research makes good sense to me.
I am also a big fan of Chair Liz Coutts and major shareholder/director Gregg Tomlinson..

At risk of a visit from the portfolio balancing and diworsification police, I have a few more as well. Mostly though been accumulating cash for the average_up play when the market turns, which it will eventually.

[Balance]

At risk of a visit from the portfolio balancing and diworsification police, I have a few more as well. Mostly though been accumulating cash for the average_up play when the market turns, which it will eventually.

NZ property cycle indicates that we are 1st year in a down cycle of 5 years - may be a while yet before we see an upturn.

[mike2020]

Have any of you heard the adds for better funding of retirement care? It will be getting hard for the govt to ignore I think.

[Balance]

Have any of you heard the adds for better funding of retirement care? It will be getting hard for the govt to ignore I think.

Where is this government going to find that kind of money to spend (on undeserving mostly 'white' pricks in retirement homes) after squandering tens of billions of dollars on wasteful spending?

Good example - around $20m to about 70,000 people+ who were paid the $350 'wrongly' by this clueless government.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/130492504/inland-revenue-to-write-to-about-70000-people-who-wrongly-received-cost-of-living-payment

Then, there's the $1 billion spent on emergency housing, $56m for the bridge to nowhere and $650m to centralize healthcare with the net result of changing the name! Plenty more examples.

[Entrep]

Via Property Guru document ordering service via a real estate agent - instrument details.

Interesting - I assume that it is the original mortgage amount though?

[justakiwi]

The funding issues are not about this government. National also turned their back on the Aged Care Sector when they were running the country, and ignored the warnings of impending crisis. Both parties have buried their heads in the sand for years, and we are now reaping the consequences of that. They have both shirked their responsibilities in this sector and will now pay the price.



Where is this government going to find that kind of money to spend (on undeserving mostly 'white' pricks in retirement homes) after squandering tens of billions of dollars on wasteful spending?

[Balance]

Interesting - I assume that it is the original mortgage amount though?

It’s updated periodically as the mortgage amounts go up or down.

[Balance]

The funding issues are not about this government. National also turned their back on the Aged Care Sector when they were running the country, and ignored the warnings of impending crisis. Both parties have buried their heads in the sand for years, and we are now reaping the consequences of that. They have both shirked their responsibilities in this sector and will now pay the price.

Of course it is about this clueless and useless Ardern government.

No government has squandered as much wealth down the proverbial as this inept lot - save maybe the buffoon Muldoon.

Clueless Cindy.

And it is NZers who pay the price - not Ardern who will soon be off to the UN to spread her disasters.

[justakiwi]

Every damned time I decide to be the better person and take you off ignore, you do this. Do you ever actually listen to anything anybody says? Open your eyes and your ears Balance. Your tunnel vision blinds you to the realities of politics, including this issue. You have completely lost any ability to rationally consider differing points of view, or to accept known facts.

Have a read of this article. Actually read it, and recognise yourself, because this is you ... to a T.

https://ayotheauthor.com/political-obsession/


Of course it is about this clueless and useless Ardern government.

No government has squandered as much wealth down the proverbial as this inept lot - save maybe the buffoon Muldoon.

Clueless Cindy.

[mike2020]

Appreciate what you are trying to convey there JAK but this govt is terrible. 600 ml on merging broadcasting as an example, could house EVERY SINGLE CHILD LIVING IN A CAR PERMANENTLY. If they saw this behaviour while in opposition Labour would be screaming mad.

[850man]

$1.9B on mental health and they don't even know where its gone. We're not making this up, its fact and we all should be very worried. The list is incompetence on a scale never previously seen. We all love our country and it's hard to watch TBH