OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Beagle]

Have to look at the development pipeline as well, all that stuff that's already consented, it's complicated trying to factor in the 'onboarding' of new developments but imo over the next five years OCA will significantly close the gap on all metrics against RYM and SUM. Haven't given much thought to ARV.

Anyway, it's not a race, the whole sector looks to be a good option for investors over the long term. I think it's too easy get too focused on the excitement of the next big capital gain which tends to de-focus on accumulating something we might have no intention of ever selling.

Nicely said...just pick your favorite(s) in the sector and take a really "dogged" approach to holding.

[Beagle]

Love your $3.00-$3.50 expectations - thought you might have stretched it $4.00 though

Good thing if that happens SUM will be $29-$33 and will have continued to outperform OCA

Seems I cant lose as a bob each way at the moment (hedging my bets the experts say)

You could be on for a very good year ahead as Jarden rate both OCA and SUM as "outperform"
https://www.jarden.co.nz/assets/Investment-Outlooks/Investment-Outlook-November-2020.pdf

Jarden are smart people. Note the use of happy imagery including a dog and grandchild on the beach at page 23 to market their wealth management business.

OCA management might like to take notes as they move slightly more towards developing upmarket apartments and selling a lifestyle.

Looking after old people is sometimes not a very "sexy" business but I feel OCA could improve their marketing by "selling the sizzle". An attractive looking couple in their early 70's with an attractive dog, (like a Beagle) and a grandchild looking happy with the Sands apartments in the background, photo taken on Browns Bay beach would be good imagery to include in their marketing material and website. Needs to be authentic though, must be a couple living at the Sands apartments who have a dog.

People moving into a new facility are worried they will be lonely and making it clear, (through good imagery) that OCA embraces them bring their pet cannot hurt their business and might help it.

Another smart example of marketing bringing in a dog to the equation https://starinsure.co.nz/get-quote/

Who remembers the Spot the telecom dog advertising campaign that was so incredibly successful for Telecom in the 1990's ?

[Ggcc]

You could be on for a very good year ahead as Jarden rate both OCA and SUM as "outperform"
https://www.jarden.co.nz/assets/Investment-Outlooks/Investment-Outlook-November-2020.pdf

Jarden are smart people. Note the use of happy imagery including a dog and grandchild on the beach at page 23 to market their wealth management business.

OCA management might like to take notes as they move slightly more towards developing upmarket apartments and selling a lifestyle.

Looking after old people is sometimes not a very "sexy" business but I feel OCA could improve their marketing by "selling the sizzle". An attractive looking couple in their early 70's with an attractive dog, (like a Beagle) and a grandchild looking happy with the Sands apartments in the background, photo taken on Browns Bay beach would be good imagery to include in their marketing material and website. Needs to be authentic though, must be a couple living at the Sands apartments who have a dog.

People moving into a new facility are worried they will be lonely and making it clear, (through good imagery) that OCA embraces them bring their pet cannot hurt their business and might help it.

Another smart example of marketing bringing in a dog to the equation https://starinsure.co.nz/get-quote/

Who remembers the Spot the telecom dog advertising campaign that was so incredibly successful for Telecom in the 1990's ?

I do agree that the people at Jarden are smart people. They have three other companies that are almost at the buy and not just an outperform. MFT, ZEL and our one of all our favourites ATM. Lets hope that they are correct.

[Beagle]

Hope so. I have a lot of Kingfish warrants I am aiming to exercise in March 21 and they have heaps of ATM and MFT.

[value_investor]

I think we've seen the thesis drawn up by OCA by the roadmap they've made to go premium. Even people here have talked about how it will go, the only thing we've not seen is the execution of it. I've still got questions about the care side of the business being an viable point of difference. I can see a huge gain from selling of units in the HY unit, but the care side of the business is still a big question mark for me.

Disc: Holder.

[Panda-NZ-]

An attractive looking couple in their early 70's with an attractive dog, (like a Beagle) and a grandchild looking happy with the Sands apartments in the background, photo taken on Browns Bay beach would be good imagery to include in their marketing material and website. Needs to be authentic though, must be a couple living at the Sands apartments who have a dog.

Beautiful.. They are a premium offering and should market (and price hehe) themselves as such.

[BlackPeter]

You could be on for a very good year ahead as Jarden rate both OCA and SUM as "outperform"
https://www.jarden.co.nz/assets/Investment-Outlooks/Investment-Outlook-November-2020.pdf

Jarden are smart people. Note the use of happy imagery including a dog and grandchild on the beach at page 23 to market their wealth management business.

...


Well, I suppose. However - always dangerous to rely on so called smart money getting it right. Sometimes money is not that smart at all ... and even the managers of this money happen to have better as well as not so good days.

Jarden (or NZ First as they used to call themselves at that stage) used hold plenty of CBL shares ... when the Reserve Bank discovered that CBL used to be bankrupt since IPO ... and even the infallible Warren Buffett went heavily into airlines short before they became unprofitable.

Anyway: holding OCA, but not sure I consider them as safer just because Jarden happens to be on the share register as well.

[Beagle]

Well, I suppose. However - always dangerous to rely on so called smart money getting it right. Sometimes money is not that smart at all ... and even the managers of this money happen to have better as well as not so good days.

Jarden (or NZ First as they used to call themselves at that stage) used hold plenty of CBL shares ... when the Reserve Bank discovered that CBL used to be bankrupt since IPO ... and even the infallible Warren Buffett went heavily into airlines short before they became unprofitable.

Anyway: holding OCA, but not sure I consider them as safer just because Jarden happens to be on the share register as well.

You know me mate...I always follow my own nose for a good feed but I couldn't help noticing that all the analysts covering OCA seem to be keen on its prospects.
3 BUY's and 1 Accumulate. https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/OCEANIA-HEALTHCARE-LIMITE-103506268/consensus/

[TobyPascoe92]

Commiserations to those of you who were holding A2M, but does anyone else think it could create some heat in the retirement stocks? They are just such a safe bet going forward and there is likely (even with A2 having such a drop) some cashed up investors looking for somewhere to place that $63 million that was sold of A2 today ...

[Bjauck]

Commiserations to those of you who were holding A2M, but does anyone else think it could create some heat in the retirement stocks? They are just such a safe bet going forward and there is likely (even with A2 having such a drop) some cashed up investors looking for somewhere to place that $63 million that was sold of A2 today ...
Perhaps...Even our Labour PM has said kiwis expect their residential real estate always to go up in value - so I am assuming governments of all colours will protect real estate above all else. Certainly the current PM has no appetite to try to change the investment environment status quo. She may be socially liberal, but she seems to be economically conservative.

So as companies leave the NZX either through (foreign) takeovers or relocating to the ASX to access capital, all that may be left may be NZX listed companies whose assets are centred on real estate. So for the kiwis who invest outside real estate and who want to invest in listed shares, it may increasingly be a choice between NZ listed real estate centric companies or overseas listed companies. Maybe an exaggeration but, to me, that is how it seems to be headed fwiw.

[Waltzing]

FED news on CNBC has said no interest rate rises until 2023 this morning. Doubtful there will be any rates rises here for a while and house prices up for next 5 years. This sector and commercial property. ARG, GMT Ect should also continue to be highly sort after.

[Beagle]

FED news on CNBC has said no interest rate rises until 2023 this morning. Doubtful there will be any rates rises here for a while and house prices up for next 5 years. This sector and commercial property. ARG, GMT Ect should also continue to be highly sort after.

Agreed. Ultra low interest rates for the foreseeable future could see a whole decade of tailwinds for the property sector. I intend to hold OCA for at least the rest of this decade.
SUM up 800% since listing in 2011 plus dividends, RYM up 700% plus dividends in the last decade, lets see how OCA go.

[Habits]

We have been talking about the number expat kiwis who are coming home because of covid. I am starting to wonder how many affluent foreign boomers will want to come and retire in nz. Auckland harbour is on show to the world right now, a world experiencing winter and full on covid. Many people will be spending time in their living rooms and possibly thinking "what if". These foreigners are not able to purchase nz property but can they buy a LTO in a retirement village... maybe far fetched idea and won't happen.

[macduffy]

These foreigners are not able to purchase nz property but can they buy a LTO in a retirement village... maybe far fetched idea and won't happen.

They'll need to be around 70 years old.

[Habits]

70 is the new 50? Fit and active tho some will be burnt out 70 yo so there will be different motivations, common thread could be they are high risk to catch covid and die... I think if I was overseas in that age bracket with spare cash I would be seriously thinking about getting out. Problem is borders here are almost locked shut to non kiwis, I can't see that changing for a few months at least. So probably won't happen.

[Waltzing]

Thanks to the analytics of MR B and MR S on these forums. The message from MR B after years of investing experience seems to be a Balanced approached to investing via Diversification, Diversification and Diversification.

[Waltzing]

There are ways around holding property in overseas locations and if they are really interested investment vehicles can be used to get property all over the world. All you need is a local registered vehicle in these country's and your away.

[Beagle]

Thanks to the analytics of MR B and MR S on these forums. The message from MR B after years of investing experience seems to be a Balanced approached to investing via Diversification, Diversification and Diversification.

You will often see on this forum the term diworseification...which is not even a word but the idea touted is that you cannot really beat the market with a well diversified portfolio of shares.
I know from decades of investing this is complete nonsense and a prudent investor first makes a very sober assessment of their ability to predict the future but nonetheless undertakes deep research and thorough analysis in the hope that with the various key companies in their portfolio they are right 75-90% of the time. Anyone who thinks they can predict the future with 100% God like accuracy and invests accordingly is at best taking an extreme risk approach and more likely, is a reckless fool in my opinion.

[macduffy]

In principle, I agree with that, Beagle. However, your post made me check up on my portfolio - I have 31 equity holdings! Time to take the pruning shears and do a bit of trimming/consolidation.

:ohmy:

[Waltzing]

"31"

certainly has the market covered .

[winner69]

seems we all need to update our efficient frontiers and get Sharpe Ratios working to ensure we are getting the maximum return obtainable for a certain amount of risk taken

Seems all too hard - just use gut feel - 5 stocks or 10 stocks or 15 stocks .... whatever one feels comfortable with ....and es macduffy me old mate 31 is probably a few too many

[Bjauck]

In principle, I agree with that, Beagle. However, your post made me check up on my portfolio - I have 31 equity holdings! Time to take the pruning shears and do a bit of trimming/consolidation.

:ohmy: Is a portfolio like a bush? When it becomes too unruly and straggly, it will benefit from a good judicious prune and subsequently become more bushy :)

[macduffy]

Is a portfolio like a bush? When it becomes too unruly and straggly, it will benefit from a good judicious prune and subsequently become more bushy :)

Should become more manageable, at least. Could do with a few more OCA for a start.

:)

[Mr Slothbear]

seems we all need to update our efficient frontiers and get Sharpe Ratios working to ensure we are getting the maximum return obtainable for a certain amount of risk taken

Seems all too hard - just use gut feel - 5 stocks or 10 stocks or 15 stocks .... whatever one feels comfortable with ....and es macduffy me old mate 31 is probably a few too many

sound advice. I’m not a fan of bush but a stable of 5 to 8 is what works for me

i’m not sure on sharps theory but the Kelly formula made sense when described in Mohnish Pabrai’s The Dhando Investor, great book by the way.

[winner69]

You will often see on this forum the term diworseification...which is not even a word but the idea touted is that you cannot really beat the market with a well diversified portfolio of shares.
I know from decades of investing this is complete nonsense and a prudent investor first makes a very sober assessment of their ability to predict the future but nonetheless undertakes deep research and thorough analysis in the hope that with the various key companies in their portfolio they are right 75-90% of the time. Anyone who thinks they can predict the future with 100% God like accuracy and invests accordingly is at best taking an extreme risk approach and more likely, is a reckless fool in my opinion.

Beagle generally good advice, esp for the long term buy and hold passive sort of investor.

From your posts and disclosures about weightings etc it would seem that your portfolio is highly concentrated (not that diversified) on a limited number of shares. That might to a some extent mitigated any unsystematic risk.

I see you as a very active investor and diversification is not really one of your priorities (except maybe your self imposed limit is a form of diversification) but your main portfolio management tool (besides picking a few great stocks and keeping a close eye on them) is managing systematic risk - as your posts say you seem to go heavily into cash quite often - capital preservation I think you call it.

What I'm saying diversification can mitigate unsystematic risk but doesn't mitigate systematic risk...but you actively manage that systematic risk

I hope I'm wrong in saying this - I hope your continued 'preaching' of diversification (and even including bible quotes in your signature) isn't aimed at any particular individual who has a right to their own investing style.




Disc: My 'portfolio' is probably even more concentrated than yours

[Beagle]

Not aimed at anyone Winner, just my Christmas message to all sharing some timeless wisdom. Hard to beat King Solomon's wisdom...stood the test of time.
Back in my Uni days it was thought that one needed a portfolio of at least 13 different companies in completely different sectors to achieve proper diversification and these days you'd probably need to invest overseas to achieve that but I got to thinking what did King Solomon know with investing in 7 or 8 things that modern portfolio theorists looking for the efficient frontier don't ?

Perhaps doing deep research and thorough analysis and keeping abreast of 13 different companies is simply too much and one is simply better to concentrate on doing very deep research and analysis in finding 7 or 8 really high conviction positions ? Is so doing you will never achieve a truly diversified portfolio but perhaps that's the idea ? One will certainly be looking to achieve market outperformance but contemporaneously not be taking any extreme risks with too much of their money in any one thing.

I have also mused at some length that nowhere in King Solomon's statement does it say take 7 or 8 equal sized investments so that opens the door to further outperformance if one weights their investment to shares in which they feel have a compelling opportunity. Perhaps as high as 20, 25% or even 33% for something that's truly compelling is still embracing the core message that King Solomon gave us ?

I set a limit at 15% as an opening buy position because that's where I feel my limit is in terms of remaining objective and keeping a clear head. I am sure others feel more comfortable with higher weightings in any one share and there is some evidence on here that people can still remain objective with that, (a very good example is Maverick who I know has a very large position in OCA but still remains completely objective and doesn't feel the need to defend the share like its a cult if someone has a differing opinion), but there's an awful lot of evidence on here that suggests most investors are prone to myopic vision if they get too big in a company.

I'm sorry if you think I am "preaching". I see it as sharing some timeless wisdom so the young ones and new investors can benefit. When some new investors start idolizing those that take extreme risk positions, I am sorry but I felt someone needed to say something. Your own signature line at present suggests a gung-ho she'll be right approach to take whatever risk you like is appropriate but is it for those very close to or effectively already in retirement ?

No harm in taking refuge in a very large cash position when for example Covid or other big trouble is coming, in fact the Bible suggests this is a very good strategy, as per my signature below :)
You quoting Ben Graham as a source of wisdom, I think my source is the real truth and much better :)
That said I still like my modified version of Ben Graham's valuation theory, (you can call it the Beagle theory if you like) but I use 1G as a filter to find GARP (Growth at a reasonable price) stocks. So a fair PE = no growth PE (currently 11.5 with 10 year Govt stock at ~ 1%) + 1 x the expected average growth rate in eps for the next 7 years. I like this theory a lot and use it and find it works very well. This theory suggests to me that OCA is highly likely to be extremely good value as I have set the 1G at 15 and I think they can do this with their business model. Broker estimates for OCA are for underlying eps of 8 cps so at $1.39 brokers are saying its on a forward PE of 17.4 so its not cheap per se but it is very cheap if you think they can grow eps at 15% per annum for the next decade ! The point of inflection in their business redevelopment process is one thing, but it will take time to build earnings momentum. One analyst last week was out with extensive analysis, (I sent you a copy), has them at 18 cps for 03/25, just over 4 years away. 8 cps in FY21 to 18 cps in FY25 gives an average compound growth rate of 22% looking out over the medium term.

One neat trick to getting market outperformance though in my opinion, is to pay nothing or very close to nothing for all the future growth for all time and buy growth companies on a no growth forward PE of about 11.5. Really good examples at present are HLG, (should do 55 cps this year and are on a forward PE of 12) and HGH.
Using 1G on Heartland I get a fair forward PE of about 17.5 (11.5 + 6), currently priced like its never going to grow in the future which is plainly absurd as is HLG which has excellent prospects with its Glassons brand in Australia.

I hold quite a few other positions but none of them are as really high conviction as those three noted above. TRA have been building momentum nicely though and our GNE term deposit is going well too. PAZ very promising on the unlisted market and Barramundi warrants should do really well this year, so there's four others to round out 7 picks key selections.\

Everyone needs to find their own investing methodology but measuring one's success against some benchmark like they would have achieved through investment in an index tracking fund makes profound common sense. If one finds they are consistently underperforming the NZX50 year after year after year maybe its time to reconsider one's investment style or simply hand their money over to be professionally managed for them ?

Anyway herewith ends the sermon. I might have some new wisdom in an updated signature from Proverbs for you next month ;)

[James108]

About 8-10 holdings for me is about right. But I try and be very honest with myself about when I might know better than the market and when I probably don't. And a lot of the time I probably don't.

Some companies I own that appear well run but large and very complicated, I don't pretend I could ever get a knowledge edge and make a deep 'value' buy. e.g. Infratil, Ebos, Freightways, ATM. But most of these shares have still done very well for me (although I actually bought and then almost immediately sold Mainfreight years ago, I must be one of the only people in the world to lose money owning Mainfrieght shares lol)

Other companies I have done a lot of work on and I feel I understand very well, usually less complicated and smaller e.g. Scales, Summerset, Oceania, HLG. Or I am the smartest person in an empty room e.g. Smartpay.

If a company in the former camp has a share price drop e.g. ATM I don't pretend I know more than the market and I don't chase it down because I almost certainly don't (and I feel a lot of people are in this camp whether they know it or not). On the other hand if I sense value in the latter category I will often chase the price down as there is a chance I am a better judge of value than the market. I have learnt to be very strict in the value of additional parcels I buy though as I may be wrong. E.g. when L4 lockdown was announced this in my view de-risked oceania ALOT and at 42 cents a share presented very good value. Because I already had a model for Oceania I knew what it was worth in 'normal' times and I thought through 3-4 different scenarios, valued each outcome and assigned (guessed) a chance for each eventuality this then presented a value far in excess of the share price which left a lot of room for my error.

[Beagle]

For what its worth I currently have 11 positions although 2 of them are in listed investment companies (Marlin and Barramundi warrants) and between them they have nearly 40 different companies. Really only 9 of my own positions and ostensibly handing over the rest to be professionally managed. Maybe at heart I am a simple bean counter and when I run out of fingers to count on I feel lost lol

[macduffy]

I must admit being partly responsible but we seem to have strayed a long way from OCA! Perhaps the discussion of portfolio composition would be better having its own thread.

[winner69]

Harry Markowitz said that in investing “the only free lunch is diversification”

[Greekwatchdog]

Well until Jan 22 not much to say/happen except speculate on numbers......

[winner69]

Well until Jan 22 not much to say/happen except speculate on numbers......

Half year underlying about $35m I reckon

[winner69]

Seeing they have changed their balance date wonder if they will also produce proforma trading accounts for April 20/ March 21 period so we can compare things year on year (like 12 months v 12 months instead of being lumbered with 10 months v 12 months)

[Greekwatchdog]

I'll open a bottle of Pol Roger with that number

[winner69]

I'll open a bottle of Pol Roger with that number

You don’t have great expectations then ;)

Would you be happy with $30m then

Things going so well apparently they heading to annualised $75m so I though $35m at half year

All good though whatever it is ...F23 is the year

[Greekwatchdog]

W69 I am jut been cautious, but happy with your bigly number...

[dompf]

You don’t have great expectations then ;)

Would you be happy with $30m then

Things going so well apparently they heading to annualised $75m so I though $35m at half year

All good though whatever it is ...F23 is the year

Whenever that St Helliers project is selling is the year; that ground they broke is going to be very very attractive.

OCA has so many good projects coming through outside of this years results appears to be very good hold at this stage.

[fluziosaurus]

You don’t have great expectations then ;)

Would you be happy with $30m then

Things going so well apparently they heading to annualised $75m so I though $35m at half year

All good though whatever it is ...F23 is the year

W69,

Just a few questions and thoughts..


Going so well according to ST or somewhere else? What are the chances they do not rerate their property valuations significantly and perhaps have a 12 month lag to the RV of their apartments?

35m at half year seems great 😀

[macduffy]

Going so well according to ST or somewhere else? What are the chances they do not rerate their property valuations significantly and perhaps have a 12 month lag to the RV of their apartments?

All property companies have had their properties revalued upwards recently - professional valuations involved here and no reason for them not following the firming in the market since last report.

[bull....]

looks like after consolidating below 1.40 resistance for around 5 - 6 weeks it is finally breaking upwards

[Waltzing]

Yes moving on up ....we just dont have any where near enough of these and never will im afraid. We are moving into places like deserts...

[dompf]

looks like after consolidating below 1.40 resistance for around 5 - 6 weeks it is finally breaking upwards
Definitely looks like the momentum has turned upwards after the consolidation although NZX was up pretty mightily across the board today - looking forward to the results on the 22nd of Jan, a fun Friday in store.

[bull....]

Definitely looks like the momentum has turned upwards after the consolidation although NZX was up pretty mightily across the board today - looking forward to the results on the 22nd of Jan, a fun Friday in store.

probably rally in advance of the results i reckon esp if people are expecting a bumper result

[Greekwatchdog]

What are you expecting in the result Bull??

[bull....]

What are you expecting in the result Bull??

i cannot go really deep into specifics on any company on this forum hence why all my comments are generally in the vane of it be good or it be bad or im bullish or im bearish in nature.

mav and beagle provided good figures

[Greekwatchdog]

All good, just wondered your expectations. Good luck. Mav and Beagle have already said there peace on this..

[value_investor]

I'd say at $1.40-$1.45 now we are at a fair valuation for the stock. I'd say a underlying profit of $50m is quiet fair at this point since we know very little on the HY and the fact that a lot could happen between now and the EOY result. A lot of the unknowns will be revealed at HY. These are my questions I want answered:

Is the care side still being less and less profitable as we go? This is a big part of their thesis for being different and would worry me..
How are unit sales and development margin tracking?
Are their projects still on track considering all the setbacks from Covid?

At $50m we have a forward PE of about 17 which is fairly valued. Anything below this, and the stock goes back down to hovering around a $1. At $55-60m which is doable is where it could conservatively land would move it closer to $1.60-$1.75 imo.

[Curly]

Pre announcement $1.60, post announcement slight movement as market will have already factored in result. Some way to go to see Beagle’s $2+. Best for New Year guys.

[winner69]

Even when we might be disappointed with half year result it’ll be all super OK by time ful year and 2022 comes around

Extract:

Westpac chief economist Dominick Stephens said house price inflation had a way to run yet and he's picking big growth this year.

"We are forecasting a peak of 16 per cent annual house price inflation in June 2021, and a full-year increase over 2021 of 12.2 per cent," he said.


https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/what-will-nz-house-prices-do-in-2021-experts-make-their-forecasts/I5NOR7O2KMTJ7OJHJ5X5VD5JAA/

[x2rider]

It will be interesting to see where the gains come from . This more a real-estate stock than a retirement play

[Brain]

Even when we might be disappointed with half year result it’ll be all super OK by time ful year and 2022 comes around

Extract:

Westpac chief economist Dominick Stephens said house price inflation had a way to run yet and he's picking big growth this year.

"We are forecasting a peak of 16 per cent annual house price inflation in June 2021, and a full-year increase over 2021 of 12.2 per cent," he said.


https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/what-will-nz-house-prices-do-in-2021-experts-make-their-forecasts/I5NOR7O2KMTJ7OJHJ5X5VD5JAA/

Yeah but he’s an economist - so what would he know?

[Blue Skies]

Yeah but he’s an economist - so what would he know?


Yes agreed, the other night we were discussing all the predictions for the year which turned out to be wrong, including the economists predicting the economy would be in recession by the end of the year, unemployment would go above 10% and house prices would drop, all of which turned out to be completely wrong. :)

[Greekwatchdog]

Yes well its all good to kick the "so called pros" down but there were some on here that are very knowledgeable that were equally as gloomy. We simply can't build houses here fast enough, add the amount of people coming back to live in N.Z = Supply & Demand constraints. Its not going away for sometime.

[Bjauck]

Yes agreed, the other night we were discussing all the predictions for the year which turned out to be wrong, including the economists predicting the economy would be in recession by the end of the year, unemployment would go above 10% and house prices would drop, all of which turned out to be completely wrong. :)
Forecasting earlier in the year was a bit like pinning the tail on the donkey while blindfolded. Thankfully they were wrong for NZ. Taxpayer wage subsidies/falling interest rates/lack of a general CGT is a heady combination for promoting investment fever in residential housing when there is small share market.

We will have to hope that the more infectious covid variants have been kept out of the community over the holiday period.

[Baa_Baa]

Forecasting earlier in the year was a bit like pinning the tail on the donkey while blindfolded. Thankfully they were wrong for NZ. Taxpayer wage subsidies/falling interest rates/lack of a general CGT is a heady combination for promoting investment fever in residential housing when there is small share market.

We will have to hope that the more infectious covid variants have been kept out of the community over the holiday period.

There were quite a few folks heavily weighted to cash, worried about all sorts of bad things that can affect the market, then along comes one thing no one was talking about. A pandemic.

Look what that did though, create a whole range of amazing buying opportunities across the market. Some really clever ones would have sold the TA and bought the TA later on, albeit heart in mouth stuff on a wild ride.

In OCA's case it got to half of IPO under 40 cents, traded up for awhile well under NTA offering sustained outstanding buying, then continued up. All the while gifting those who deployed the dry powder, a buying opportunities that may never present themselves again.

On top of that OCA finished up the calendar year about 7% +ve on 2019 not including dividends. Albeit challenging to remain objective in such wild times, the moral of the story is sh1t happens and those with a few readies stashed aside and/or trading skills, can do very well in the 'bad times', very well indeed.

[Waltzing]

yes they keep saying a once in a life time opportunity. But the world is filling up with people and every ten years or less there now seems to be some big pull backs. Brokers we have spoken to recently are saying its a ten year cycle. Yes hold on to those prices you got. We only missed one good one and that was the freights as we thought they would go even lower before bouncing. You just did not know what was going to happen this time.

And in the deep heart of south africa they are expecting more viruses and even more powerful ones.

Heart of Darkness.

[Brain]

Yes well its all good to kick the "so called pros" down but there were some on here that are very knowledgeable that were equally as gloomy. We simply can't build houses here fast enough, add the amount of people coming back to live in N.Z = Supply & Demand constraints. Its not going away for sometime.

But this “so called pro” is Westpac’s chief economist. That is a title that should come with a degree of mana along with a generous salary. The guys and gals on this site offer opinions and most would tag that with A plea that people should Do their own research. The economists have the gall to keep making predictions without qualifying them with a similar tag. In fact I would say that it would be better to pay more attention to the very learned and experienced members of this site then the rag tag bunch of economists that seem to have the ear of the popular press.

[Greekwatchdog]

Maybe so, but they aren't mind readers nor are they perfect. No one could predict what we have all just gone thru especially given this is a one hundred year event (perhaps). Lessons to be learned by all..

[Blue Skies]

Maybe so, but they aren't mind readers nor are they perfect. No one could predict what we have all just gone thru especially given this is a one hundred year event (perhaps). Lessons to be learned by all..


Ahh, while no one predicted the arrival of the Covid pandemic, the predictions we are talking about were made post arrival of Covid i.e. in the new environment , as a result of Covid they expected house prices to drop, unemployment to go to 10% and the economy to be in recession by now.

To some extent people's decisions are influenced by these 'expert projections' which are frequently aired in the media, they do have consequences, missed opportunities, postponed decisions,changed plans etc.

It is after all their specialist area, for which they are respected & well paid, and while they are applauded when they get things right, they can take a bit of criticism when they get things horribly wrong.

But I agree, its not a perfect science & as someone said, 'prediction is difficult, especially about the future!'

[Bjauck]

There were quite a few folks heavily weighted to cash, worried about all sorts of bad things that can affect the market, then along comes one thing no one was talking about. A pandemic.

Look what that did though, create a whole range of amazing buying opportunities across the market. Some really clever ones would have sold the TA and bought the TA later on, albeit heart in mouth stuff on a wild ride.

In OCA's case it got to half of IPO under 40 cents, traded up for awhile well under NTA offering sustained outstanding buying, then continued up. All the while gifting those who deployed the dry powder, a buying opportunities that may never present themselves again.

On top of that OCA finished up the calendar year about 7% +ve on 2019 not including dividends. Albeit challenging to remain objective in such wild times, the moral of the story is sh1t happens and those with a few readies stashed aside and/or trading skills, can do very well in the 'bad times', very well indeed.

I did not buy when OCA was at its COVID low. I guess it was fear that COVID could still have got a lot worse in Aotearoa NZ (look at what has happened in the US and UK) and hit the target market for OCA villages especially hard.

[iceman]

Yes well its all good to kick the "so called pros" down but there were some on here that are very knowledgeable that were equally as gloomy. We simply can't build houses here fast enough, add the amount of people coming back to live in N.Z = Supply & Demand constraints. Its not going away for sometime.

I see that statement a lot in the media and social media. All these people coming from overseas to snap up all the houses in NZ and explaining the house price craziness.. Well it is a complete myth.
In the 7 months to end of October 2020, net migration to NZ was a measly 2,512 people. For the same period in 2019, it was 40,195
.
.

[GTM 3442]

I see that statement a lot in the media and social media. All these people coming from overseas to snap up all the houses in NZ and explaining the house price craziness.. Well it is a complete myth.
In the 7 months to end of October 2020, net migration to NZ was a measly 2,512 people. For the same period in 2019, it was 40,195
.
.


It would be interesting to see who's coming and who's going and then consider what sort of housing there coming out of and going into.

My suspicion is that renters are leaving, and buyers are arriving, but I am, of course, happy for the figures to prove me wrong.

[iceman]

It would be interesting to see who's coming and who's going and then consider what sort of housing there coming out of and going into.

My suspicion is that renters are leaving, and buyers are arriving, but I am, of course, happy for the figures to prove me wrong.

I think it is safe to assume this to be likely but the numbers are not as significant as is being reported, like 50-100 arriving per day and 40-70 leaving. It isn't setting the housing market on fire.

[Bjauck]

It would be interesting to see who's coming and who's going and then consider what sort of housing there coming out of and going into.

My suspicion is that renters are leaving, and buyers are arriving, but I am, of course, happy for the figures to prove me wrong.

The NZ investment environment has massive signs directing people to put their money (and their mortgages) into residential housing. This has been discussed on these threads. Even our current Labour Party PM implicitly admits this by ruling out a CGT under her watch, and stating that Kiwis expect House prices always to increase. Falling interest rates have just unlocked further pent up domestic demand.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says she would like to see small increases in houses prices, acknowledging most people “expect” the value of their most valuable asset to keep rising.
https://www.interest.co.nz/property/108301/pm-jacinda-ardern-says-sustained-moderation-remains-governments-goal-when-it-comes

Ardern has effectively put neon lights around signs directing NZ residents to invest, either as owner-occupier investors or as other investors, in housing!

[iceman]

I just studied the numbers from Stats NZ a bit better. The numbers stated in my post above should be for the 6 months to end of September. not 7 months. My bad. But I've also gleaned that there was a net gain of 7,200 NZ Citizens in that period and net departures of 4,700 non NZ Citizens. That's about all the detail one can get from those numbers.

[GTM 3442]

I think it is safe to assume this to be likely but the numbers are not as significant as is being reported, like 50-100 arriving per day and 40-70 leaving. It isn't setting the housing market on fire.

Hmmmmmmmmmm. . . . . . . might have to polish up the excel skills and roll around a few statistically-oriented websites.

Would be interesting (although probably impossible) to be able to establish how many residential properties have been bought by non-resident NZ citizens in anticipation of an eventual return.

[FTG]

It would be interesting to see who's coming and who's going and then consider what sort of housing there coming out of and going into.

My suspicion is that renters are leaving, and buyers are arriving, but I am, of course, happy for the figures to prove me wrong.

Official migration figures are normally a good go-to when evaluating demand-supply dynamics for the real estate market. But as we know 2020 weren't normal times. In fact it appears that migration flows in NZ will be distorted for quite an extended period, arguably into at least 2022. So potentially a more accurate measure to assist one in understanding what is actually happening is looking at Arrival/Departure data (border passenger statistics data - provided by NZ Customs Service).

Taking a look at this provided a surprising overview!

Between March 1 & Sept 30 115,000 more people LEFT NZ than arrived. A good chunk of this occurred in March & April (tourists/short stay visitors returning home presumably). However, intriguingly the trend of more people LEAVING NZ than arriving has continued unabated, every single month.
The monthly numbers aren't huge, but they certainly seem to counter the impression that the media etc seem to enjoy creating - that stacks of Kiwis are returning and nobody is leaving.

Last 3 months:
Oct: Net LOSS of 1164 people
Nov:Net LOSS of 1943 people
Dec:Net LOSS of 3897 people

[iceman]

Hmmmmmmmmmm. . . . . . . might have to polish up the excel skills and roll around a few statistically-oriented websites.

Would be interesting (although probably impossible) to be able to establish how many residential properties have been bought by non-resident NZ citizens in anticipation of an eventual return.

Easy as. Just ask Phil Twyford. He did it with "Chinese sounding" names :-)

[blackie]

an interesting general discussion for the last page and a half.
perhaps someone can steer this back to OCA before we wander off onto tips for the best barbecue methods...... :cool:

[Waltzing]

imagine the number of people in the population who follow statistics published by government agencies across OECD. Until 2008 all you had to do was cover the governing body of your business field or union.

Now you have multiple moving pieces in your environment effecting your investment decision unless your following the herd.

Or you simply say ill continue to invest in what i know about a demographic in a certain OECD population.

Here its simply even if a CGT is implemented which it already is. Property has a CGT in NZ and only your occupancy primary dwelling is except.

Talk of a CGT reducing house prices is therefore to a percentage moot.

OCA is a stock a bit like PEB. it has potential and you need some but not to much yet. They dont stand a chance of solving the housing crisis in NZ.

[Bjauck]

....

Here its simply even if a CGT is implemented which it already is. Property has a CGT in NZ and only your occupancy primary dwelling is except.

...

NZ does not have a general comprehensive CGT or a Wealth Tax. However capital gains and also capital in some circumstances can become taxable through other tax provisions. For example, this could be via the property bright line length of ownership test, financial arrangement rules, FIF provisions on investments and other rules determining what is subject to income tax.

[Waltzing]

I dont see a comprehensive CGT coming to new zealand anytime soon and as an OCA Holder we are looking forward to the next results.

[Baa_Baa]

If it's not about OCA, kindly go away.

Chart looks good for a test of ATH during January.
(https://invst.ly/tbj36)

[winner69]

There were quite a few folks heavily weighted to cash, worried about all sorts of bad things that can affect the market, then along comes one thing no one was talking about. A pandemic.

Look what that did though, create a whole range of amazing buying opportunities across the market. Some really clever ones would have sold the TA and bought the TA later on, albeit heart in mouth stuff on a wild ride.

In OCA's case it got to half of IPO under 40 cents, traded up for awhile well under NTA offering sustained outstanding buying, then continued up. All the while gifting those who deployed the dry powder, a buying opportunities that may never present themselves again.

On top of that OCA finished up the calendar year about 7% +ve on 2019 not including dividends. Albeit challenging to remain objective in such wild times, the moral of the story is sh1t happens and those with a few readies stashed aside and/or trading skills, can do very well in the 'bad times', very well indeed.

Truly was a wild ride last year

Yes, amazing both OCA and SUM are up ~270% from their covid crash lows

Amazing because while one was a ridiculously cheap undervalued stock the other was seen as past it’s best and outrageously overvalued ... and one was up 40% for the year. .....weird eh

Whatever both will continue to reach new ATHs over the next month or so.

[winner69]

Fascination with certain trends keep me updating this chart of OCA shareprice as a %age of SUM shareprice

Even lately with strong performance of OCA (expectation of good news or just hype I don't know) it just happens that SUM did better (did come out with guidance but that wasn't that flash)

Always a good thing to ask why things happen

They say share prices to a large extent is a measure of market sentiment (as charts reflect actual performance and valuation multiples). If so the trend on the chart says that the market over a pretty long period of time thinks SUM to be a better bet than OCA ...and the love towards SUM is getting stronger.

Maybe something else drives the trend but whatever it's pretty entrenched.

So entrenched it possibly shows that Oceania have done an useless job of telling the market how great they are going to be. They can't rely on a a couple of contributors on a share chat forum to get the word out.

Then again many punters might be be put off by hearing 'there's no money to be made in care' and Oceania going on about 'we're moving more and more to a care based model'

I've got both but having OCA has been rather an expensive hedge against SUM



One good thing - trend can't last forever - unless OCA become worthless

[Bjauck]

…

Then again many punters might be be put off by hearing 'there's no money to be made in care' and Oceania going on about 'we're moving more and more to a care based model'

I've got both but having OCA has been rather an expensive hedge against SUM



One good thing - trend can't last forever - unless OCA become worthless Perhaps this paradigm just reflects what has been going on in contemporary NZ society. Care, and care of the less fortunate, is placed behind residential real estate capital gains?

[Curly]

Perhaps this paradigm just reflects what has been going on in contemporary NZ society. Care, and care of the less fortunate, is placed behind residential real estate capital gains?
Pretty much a sad commentary on where we are as a nation and the heart of mankind perhaps. Government should legislate that one person/ entity/ couple can own no more than three properties, residential home, holiday home and investment property. Landlords borrowing to own multiple houses exploiting a housing need of unfortunates needs to be stopped. Sadly a reflection of the society we live in today.

[justakiwi]

In my humble opinion “care” is what is going to be needed the most in the future. Sure, there will always be wealthy retirees who want a lifestyle village/apartment retirement, but the vast majority of people are not/won’t be in that category. In my job in a small NGO rest home, I am already seriously concerned about the changing dynamics we are now seeing. Our last two incoming residents were 99 and 94. Our youngest resident is 70. Our oldest has just turned 104. I don’t do day shifts so I can’t speak for day staff, but those of us working afternoons (3.30-11pm) are already struggling. The needs of our residents are increasing at what feels like a rate of knots. I just did a weekend supervisor shift and I am exhausted - physically and mentally. With only two staff on before 4.30pm, and after 7.30pm, we were running all night. We didn’t get to sit down and write our notes until 10.40pm. We had one 10 minute cuppa break at 6pm and our dinner break at 8.25pm - we were then back up at 8.35pm. We are classed as rest home level care. If this is what basic rest home level care looks like now, in 6 months or a year, we will not be able to cope with current staffing levels. OCA has it right - they seem to be the only ones who recognise that the demands for care are about to sky rocket. Care will always be subsidised by the government - regardless of which party is in power. Costs will no doubt increase, so fees will follow. But the government will continue to meet this cost. Care subsidies will always be guaranteed income to care facilities.

I hold OCA for this very reason. Their philosophies are reasonably well aligned with my own. Care is my passion and I feel it is also theirs. Yes, they still need their apartments and independent units, but care will be more important down the track than many realise.


Perhaps this paradigm just reflects what has been going on in contemporary NZ society. Care, and care of the less fortunate, is placed behind residential real estate capital gains?

[Waltzing]

With new forecasts predicting up to and over 10% growth in house prices? in the next 12 months surely this is enough to move the price on even OCA with no increase in profit other than a return to pre virus levels.

[dompf]

In my humble opinion “care” is what is going to be needed the most in the future. Sure, there will always be wealthy retirees who want a lifestyle village/apartment retirement, but the vast majority of people are not/won’t be in that category. In my job in a small NGO rest home, I am already seriously concerned about the changing dynamics we are now seeing. Our last two incoming residents were 99 and 94. Our youngest resident is 70. Our oldest has just turned 104. I don’t do day shifts so I can’t speak for day staff, but those of us working afternoons (3.30-11pm) are already struggling. The needs of our residents are increasing at what feels like a rate of knots. I just did a weekend supervisor shift and I am exhausted - physically and mentally. With only two staff on before 4.30pm, and after 7.30pm, we were running all night. We didn’t get to sit down and write our notes until 10.40pm. We had one 10 minute cuppa break at 6pm and our dinner break at 8.25pm - we were then back up at 8.35pm. We are classed as rest home level care. If this is what basic rest home level care looks like now, in 6 months or a year, we will not be able to cope with current staffing levels. OCA has it right - they seem to be the only ones who recognise that the demands for care are about to sky rocket. Care will always be subsidised by the government - regardless of which party is in power. Costs will no doubt increase, so fees will follow. But the government will continue to meet this cost. Care subsidies will always be guaranteed income to care facilities.

I hold OCA for this very reason. Their philosophies are reasonably well aligned with my own. Care is my passion and I feel it is also theirs. Yes, they still need their apartments and independent units, but care will be more important down the track than many realise.

thank you Justakiwi this is really great insight from your position. Appreciate the post.

[whome]

If it's not about OCA, kindly go away.

Chart looks good for a test of ATH during January.
(https://invst.ly/tbj36)
Baabaa, gotta love that fib retracement pattern between the 2 points of significant difference ie the COVID low sp and the recent high $1.49 ... then the hold between 0.5 and 0.382 before the upside break. Coupled with the channel, looks like sp could move to 1.60-ish. Nice graph.

[bull....]

once 1.45 goes should be off to the races ahead of results

[Curly]

once 1.45 goes should be off to the races ahead of results
Agreed, share price tracking nicely. How long will it take for oca to out strip arv share price? Since arv listing late 2014 their share price has has increased approximately 88%. Since oca listed May 2017, share price has increased approximately 84% that is in a little over half the time it has taken arv to get to its current share price. Not bad going I say.
Next fortnight oca share price movement will be interesting.

[winner69]

once 1.45 goes should be off to the races ahead of results

And then we will able say ‘we’ll never see $1.50 again’

OCA - the share you can’t have too many of (unless one has self imposed portfolio weighting limits)

[Chinesekiwi]

In my humble opinion “care” is what is going to be needed the most in the future. Sure, there will always be wealthy retirees who want a lifestyle village/apartment retirement, but the vast majority of people are not/won’t be in that category. In my job in a small NGO rest home, I am already seriously concerned about the changing dynamics we are now seeing. Our last two incoming residents were 99 and 94. Our youngest resident is 70. Our oldest has just turned 104. I don’t do day shifts so I can’t speak for day staff, but those of us working afternoons (3.30-11pm) are already struggling. The needs of our residents are increasing at what feels like a rate of knots. I just did a weekend supervisor shift and I am exhausted - physically and mentally. With only two staff on before 4.30pm, and after 7.30pm, we were running all night. We didn’t get to sit down and write our notes until 10.40pm. We had one 10 minute cuppa break at 6pm and our dinner break at 8.25pm - we were then back up at 8.35pm. We are classed as rest home level care. If this is what basic rest home level care looks like now, in 6 months or a year, we will not be able to cope with current staffing levels. OCA has it right - they seem to be the only ones who recognise that the demands for care are about to sky rocket. Care will always be subsidised by the government - regardless of which party is in power. Costs will no doubt increase, so fees will follow. But the government will continue to meet this cost. Care subsidies will always be guaranteed income to care facilities.

I hold OCA for this very reason. Their philosophies are reasonably well aligned with my own. Care is my passion and I feel it is also theirs. Yes, they still need their apartments and independent units, but care will be more important down the track than many realise.


Thanks Justakwi - I find your posts have real compassion and a measured feel about them.

[Bjauck]

…Care subsidies will always be guaranteed income to care facilities.

I hold OCA for this very reason. Their philosophies are reasonably well aligned with my own. Care is my passion and I feel it is also theirs. Yes, they still need their apartments and independent units, but care will be more important down the track than many realise.What a great service you provide. I hope you are right and that care subsidies will continue to cover all the costs - and the increasing higher needs costs of those even in rest home level care - involved.

I fear however that even this Labour government is more concerned for the protection of residential real estate owners’ capital gains than in protecting the returns for those who provide good care for the increasing numbers of people requiring such high level care. For that reason I think that perhaps an investment in a retirement company with more of its assets in land ownership and the provision of ORAs (as opposed to investment in the provision of care) may still provide greater investment returns for its investors.

Disc. This is my opinion. Definitely DYOR. I have approximately equal value shareholdings in OCA and SUM; smaller holding in ARV.

[Chinesekiwi]

Late and big drop for OCA this afternoon, not shared by the others in the sector.

[Joshuatree]

Someone wanted to buy his girlfriend a big diamond ring maybe.

[dreamcatcher]

372k queuing between $1.38 & $1.35 appears there's not a lot of buyers otherwise.

disc: held

[Curly]

Did not expect that drop. Holiday blimp, expect a quick rebound tomorrow. Chance to top up on weakness.

[allfromacell]

The price movement between now and the 22nd is mostly irrelevant, the share price will rerate up or down depending on how real the 'inflection' point is, how many sales have been made, development margins, covid costs and if care profits have hopefully reached a bottom.

The zodiac astrology believing scared of shooting stars and moving averages might tell you otherwise but let's be honest the numbers are all that matters.

Bring on the 22nd!

[Baa_Baa]

Did not expect that drop. Holiday blimp, expect a quick rebound tomorrow. Chance to top up on weakness.

4 cents is hardly worth worrying about after clearing a log jam at $1.44 bid $1.45 ask. Decent volume for day one 2021. A small order went through at $1.44 5:09pm, which is on the tape but isn't showing on the boards.

[Snow Leopard]

4 cents is hardly worth worrying about after clearing a log jam at $1.44 bid $1.45 ask. Decent volume for day one 2021. A small order went through at $1.44 5:09pm, which is on the tape but isn't showing on the boards.

Not worth worrying about?

Are you serious? Not worth worrying about?

Ok, then.
12179

[clearasmud]

Just bgt another 32k.
Want to keep these till they get to 5 dollars or Sum has a similar dividend yield.

[bull....]

Just bgt another 32k.
Want to keep these till they get to 5 dollars or Sum has a similar dividend yield.

i brought some more yesterday too on that irrational dump by someone

[winner69]

i brought some more yesterday too on that irrational dump by someone

Dump could have been portfolio rebalancing ...price appreciation got weightings out of skew for some

[Curly]

i brought some more yesterday too on that irrational dump by someone
Well done Bull. Share price rebounding as expected. Not many sellers moving forward.
Looking for upward movement from here on.

[bull....]

Well done Bull. Share price rebounding as expected. Not many sellers moving forward.
Looking for upward movement from here on.

cheers looking good 1.50 could be possible this week looking at the bollingers. whats really important in there up coming results besides the numbers, is the dividend needs to be back to pre - covid levels

[winner69]

Well done Bull. Share price rebounding as expected. Not many sellers moving forward.
Looking for upward movement from here on.

H1 underlying earnings ~$35m will put a rocket under the share price

[Curly]

Yep, $1.50 here we come.

[winner69]

Yep, $1.50 here we come.

What comes after $1.50? ...seeing $1.50 is really a non-event and not that exciting

Even a modest PE gives expectations of $2 plus

[Greekwatchdog]

You'd think a big re rate from the Pro's with $2 in front..

[justakiwi]

You could be right. But I guess it all boils down to why one chooses to invest in a company such as OCA. I originally had no intention of ever investing in a retirement company, because the whole concept of wealthy people selling their expensive homes to buy into a ridiculously priced villa or apartment - doesn’t sit well with my personal philosophy and feelings about aged care. But when I started reading up on OCA I felt they were more aligned with them than any of the others. I guess my feeling is that if they continue to focus on providing excellent care options, the demand for those services will always be there. They will always have guaranteed income for care - sure, it may not be where they make their biggest profits, but as long as they’re making something, the real estate side of the business will make up for it. Remember too that many of their care clients down the track, will no doubt come across from the independent living side of the business. That alone is a huge selling point for newcomers looking for a villa or apartment. Peace of mind that their future care/hospital/dementia needs can be guaranteed, must surely be a positive thing.

It is worth mentioning too, that “care” is much more than hospital beds, personal cares, medications etc. “Care” is about being genuinely interested in and concerned for residents as people. It is about emotional connection and friendship. Just as an example - one of our residents died this morning. She had been unwell for over a month. She has no family in NZ and her only living son is in the UK, in lockdown. We set up a roster of staff to sit with her 24/7 last night, so that she would not be alone when she died, and so she would have “family” with her. Not part of our job description and not paid, but we had so many staff put their hands up to help, that we could have covered at least the next 2 or 3 days if needed. In the 2 years I have been in my job, not one resident has gone to hospice to die. Every one of them wants to die at home, within the care of us, their “family.”


What a great service you provide. I hope you are right and that care subsidies will continue to cover all the costs - and the increasing higher needs costs of those even in rest home level care - involved.

I fear however that even this Labour government is more concerned for the protection of residential real estate owners’ capital gains than in protecting the returns for those who provide good care for the increasing numbers of people requiring such high level care. For that reason I think that perhaps an investment in a retirement company with more of its assets in land ownership and the provision of ORAs (as opposed to investment in the provision of care) may still provide greater investment returns for its investors.

Disc. This is my opinion. Definitely DYOR. I have approximately equal value shareholdings in OCA and SUM; smaller holding in ARV.

[YoungBull]

This is awesome Justakiwi. Thank you for sharing. I love Oceania’s attitude towards extremely high quality care. Just reading through their annual reports has really shown me that these directors strive for absolute perfection from the purchasing of land, consenting process, building, design right through to the care and innovation on the “people” side of the business. I certainly believe I am investing in an extremely high quality company with above average management.

[YoungBull]

Is the care side still being less and less profitable as we go? This is a big part of their thesis for being different and would worry me..



Hi, can anyone explain the reasoning behind the reduction in care profitability? I can’t seem to find anything in the annual reports referring to their care based plan reducing in profitability. Sorry for stupid question, thanks

[macduffy]

Hi, can anyone explain the reasoning behind the reduction in care profitability? I can’t seem to find anything in the annual reports referring to their care based plan reducing in profitability. Sorry for stupid question, thanks

Isn't it a case of the govt subsidy not keeping up with increasing costs to the retirement sector in providing the care?

[Waltzing]

We await the result with bated breath and since MR M last left the building we will have to go do some serious reading.

[dubya]

We await the result with bated breath and since MR M last left the building we will have to go do some serious reading.

This is what Mr M wrote exactly one month ago today. (My emphasis)



Thought it was about time for a contribution just to stay “on the team” while we all standby awaiting the 1HY result.
I thought some here might be interested in some of the numbers I'm personally expecting then;

EPS 5.35c (PCP 4.0c) +33%
Care profit $12.8m (PCP$9.6m)+33%
Village profit $39m(PCP33.2M)+17%
Overheads, depreciation and interest cost $19.3m(PCP$19.1m)+1%
Overall underlying profit $32.8m (PCP $24.6m) +33%

I've withdrawn my full year expectations as I want to see how the 1HY goes first. This post covid property craze is too wild at this point.

Significant changes since last 1HY 2020 have been;
-Macquarie overhang is now gone,
-Property has gone up 15%, depending on the measurement used.
-Sales rates of caresuites and ILUs are now substantially more proven.
-Capital gains tax, NZ and USA elections are all done .
-Interest rates and term deposits are substantially lower.
-The development pipeline has advanced a full year
-Care profits are now past the point of inflection by Beagle, my calcs and according to Earl.(unproven to the market yet though).
-MET is gone.
-Covid cost and disruption came and went -touch wood.

Interestingly, last year's share price after the HY19 result, was about where today's price is. If my numbers are in the ballpark (obviously they won't be perfect but I believe they will be close) and considering the list of years changes above ,then the SP is considerably undervalued in comparison to back then.

If OCA was indeed worth $1.30 then then it's worth a heck of a lot more now no matter how deep or shallow one's research is. I have the greatest confidence that anyone buying or holding at this price will have purchased a fabulous earner both in the short and long term.

(Am I ramping ? I don't particularly care, I'm personally all about the EPS growth not the SP.)

[bull....]

Hi, can anyone explain the reasoning behind the reduction in care profitability? I can’t seem to find anything in the annual reports referring to their care based plan reducing in profitability. Sorry for stupid question, thanks

if your investing in OCA you should focus mainly on the property development margins , the care side of the business will never make a huge contribution to profit.

[bottomfeeder]

if your investing in OCA you should focus mainly on the property development margins , the care side of the business will never make a huge contribution to profit.

The care side of the business ensures the development side continues and has a sort of backstop to a slowing of "churn". If the development side of retirement villages, meets a certain amount of saturation, we might find the care side start increasing in value throughout the whole industry.

[Curly]

Can / will share price stretch out another .13c in next ten working days prior hy result?

[Curly]

Once $1.50 is gone, currently there is only 13 sellers of under 200k shares to $1.60.

[bull....]

Once $1.50 is gone, currently there is only 13 sellers of under 200k shares to $1.60.

foolish sellers at 1.50?

[dompf]

foolish sellers at 1.50?

looks like algorithms on the sell side as they stack as it try’s to break higher.

probably start to see some momentum when most people are back in the lead up to results next week.

[Curly]

foolish sellers at 1.50?
Yep, average daily volume 869k. Do the math. Breakout coming?
You can’t hold to many OCA

[Baa_Baa]

Not wanting to jinx it but we're back at ATH today.

Expect the market to have a rush of blood to the head as we approach results. Maybe the market finally realise the potential in OCA and it's all upwards from here.

Pleasantly surprised that the market has plenty of liquidity to support accumulators. Must be heaps of folks happy with 50% gains and not too concerned about the long term. Bless them.

Wonder if McQuarie are rueing the day yet? Yeah nah, they're probably into something much more exciting now and their dump is the liquidity us long termers are accumulating.

Cue Winner69 for positive confirmation. Chart is a thing to behold. Come back Beagle. Come back Maverick. Destiny is calling you.

[evilroyrule]

Not wanting to jinx it but we're back at ATH today.

Expect the market to have a rush of blood to the head as we approach results. Maybe the market finally realise the potential in OCA and it's all upwards from here.

Pleasantly surprised that the market has plenty of liquidity to support accumulators. Must be heaps of folks happy with 50% gains and not too concerned about the long term. Bless them.

Wonder if McQuarie are rueing the day yet? Yeah nah, they're probably into something much more exciting now and their dump is the liquidity us long termers are accumulating.

Cue Winner69 for positive confirmation. Chart is a thing to behold. Come back Beagle. Come back Maverick. Destiny is calling you.

Did I miss something? Where has Beagle gone?

[Dotbond]

Go back 10 pages and start reading. Also look on the ATM thread

[clearasmud]

What did Maverick do?
Who else wants Beagle back?
If Maverick has been suspended, I want him back too.

[Curly]

What did Maverick do?
Who else wants Beagle back?
If Maverick has been suspended, I want him back too.
Mav still posting as of today. What post got the Beagle banned?

[Old mate]

Bring back B

[winner69]

Mav still posting as of today. What post got the Beagle banned?

Watching the Awapuni races while reading posts

Just had to back CALLSIGN MAV .....omen investment, stars aligned etc etc

and it won ...great investment return.

Cool eh

[RTM]

Bring back B

Personally while I am looking forward to Beagle coming back....the peace and quiet over the holiday period has been great !

[Waltzing]

Why would mr B bother. There is very little in it for as the share price will do whats it going to do and mr M has it appears gone on holiday.

[Curly]

Why would mr B bother. There is very little in it for as the share price will do whats it going to do and mr M has it appears gone on holiday.
No worries, Mav and Beags appraisals were $2+ post half year result so don’t expect to hear from them till after 22 Jan.

[Snoopy]

There is very little in it for as the share price will do whats it going to do and mr M has it appears gone on holiday.


Maverick on holiday? This shouldn't be allowed. After all, he will be on a mega retainer from 'Sharetrader'. He may have made his forecasts. But the fact he isn't here to reinforce them every day is causing OCA investor anxiety. And worry and distress may lead to violence. A spike in domestic violence with the absence of Maverick will be entirely his fault. Children could end up being hurt. When Maverick returns I say get him on line for five days straight with no sleep. That is the only way to defurrow OCA investors brows. Share prices don't go on holiday. So why should Maverick? ;-P

SNOOPY

[winner69]

Summerset report quarterly sales next week

Hope market likes what they report - could the whole sector a boost and OCA share price could well get over $1.50

Needs all the help it can as Oceania do squat all in promoting themselves.

On the other hand if SUM disappoints ............

[Maverick]

K
Maverick on holiday? This shouldn't be allowed. After all, he will be on a mega retainer from 'Sharetrader'. He may have made his forecasts. But the fact he isn't here to reinforce them every day is causing OCA investor anxiety. And worry and distress may lead to violence. A spike in domestic violence with the absence of Maverick will be entirely his fault. Children could end up being hurt. When Maverick returns I say get him on line for five days straight with no sleep. That is the only way to defurrow OCA investors brows. Share prices don't go on holiday. So why should Maverick? ;-P

SNOOPYSnoopy, that's too funny! Snorted my coffee on that one.
fellas, yes...... I have had a break , what is there really to talk about right now anyway. So why not have a bit of reflection and a reset.
The last 3 years of digging into this company and chatting with some excellent posters here has been fabulous and very profitable. Moving forward though I really do think I have reached my own inflection point here (ie become redundant) as the analysts are now all on board.(3 saying BUY and the 1 non believer only rating an Outperform)


Specifically the UBS report produced a month ago is simply superb. All of my personal very , very hard work has just become superfluous almost overnight. With the combo of posts on ST and that report there really isn't much ,if anything , to add.
I actually phoned a friend within UBS who I have recently shared my workings with to check he hadn't passed them on to their analysts (of course he didn't ) as our projections are remarkably similar.

Now the share price has gone up 50% or so in a short time , the large value gap most of us here believed was so obvious has closed considerably. Yes I still think it has a way to run in the near term but it's no longer the screaming value it has been, shareprice wise, when it was a buck.
long term the analysts generally are saying a CAGR of 15-17%, I think it will be more like 20-22% but why split hairs over numbers like that, so still enormous value there over the mid-long term. Baabaa has long said these belong in the bottom drawer.


My recent projection for the HY of 33m just might be a tad high (perhaps 30-33m would be safer) but regardless it is well ahead of the PCP. I've no doubt the market will be impressed. The upcoming result should demonstrate the “inflection point “ has been reached which has been well covered here.


Fundamentally, this is just a property company on steroids, but” just property” it is, so a solid CAGR is all anyone should expect. OCA It has a crystal clear plan of redevelopment and then applying the lucrative ORA model as they go. Their pipeline is clearly laid out and mostly consented. They have proved to deliver on budget and on time. UBS forecasts doubling in value by 2024 sounds about right to me.
Coupled with 4 Analysts who are now fully onboard, this juggernaut is on the way with many upgrades ahead and an infinite supply of global money out there looking for a return.


So there you have it folks it's time for me to simply do nothing( other than a little tinkering as we go). With such excellent reports circulating out there (With emphasis again on the UBS report) my efforts are now just a doubling up of theirs.


For the record, my throw away comment 2 yrs ago of “you can't have too many” has been a fun tag line over the years but proved very profitable for me and those around. My other throw away line of “ even a drunk monkey will soon see it” is also rapidly proving good.


Finally for now , I wish to acknowledge and absolutely thank the posters in the past years here who have all contributed so that we could all get to this point together, Winner, Baabaa, Snoopy, iceman, Percy ,left field, Blackpeter,McDuffy, value investor,(Yes, even Snow leopard coiled to pounce on anything not to his liking) and countless others but particularly and above all else , Beagle who has contributed enormously and I have the greatest respect for.

Roll on 22nd.

[Old mate]

Thank you mav and everyone else who has shared information. I really appreciate it. Interesting times ahead!!

[x2rider]

Thanks Maverick. The UBS analysis is pretty in depth and a great read with lots of industry comparisons to gauge against. With UBS having a 32.5% under value and a target of value at $2.21 I'll be sticking around to watch the show over the next few years

[clearasmud]

Thanks Maverick. The UBS analysis is pretty in depth and a great read with lots of industry comparisons to gauge against. With UBS having a 32.5% under value and a target of value at $2.21 I'll be sticking around to watch the show over the next few years

So where is the UBS report?

[winner69]

So where is the UBS report?

Probably need to be a UBS client to get it

Somebody posted that 12 month target was $1.50 (sort of implying a $1.35/$1.40 valuation today) ..... hope they wrong

They apparently have a downside valuation of 80 cents but upside of about $1.90

[clearasmud]

Thanks Winner

[x2rider]

Just do a Google search for UBS Oceania and you'll find it
https://simplywall.st/stocks/nz/healthcare/nzx-oca/oceania-healthcare-shares

[BlackPeter]

It will be interesting to see where the gains come from . This more a real-estate stock than a retirement play

Wrong - it is not "more a real estate stock" - it IS A REAL ESTATE STOCK, just as all the other retirement stocks as well :):

Nobody makes serious money just with looking after and caring for people.

Retirement stocks are basically REITS ...

[macduffy]

Exactly, BlackPeter.

:)

[Baa_Baa]

Probably need to be a UBS client to get it

Somebody posted that 12 month target was $1.50 (sort of implying a $1.35/$1.40 valuation today) ..... hope they wrong

They apparently have a downside valuation of 80 cents but upside of about $1.90

Read the whole report, quite repetitive I thought, but overall very positive and a good hold for many years.

That said I think their SP projections are conservative, tempered by the risks they cite (which are well into the report somewhere near the end). I would prefer risks to be tempered by measures of likelihood and consequence. If they did that then it might help understand why they temper the SP targets the way they did.

Anyway I’m very happy to have concluded my accumulation and unlikely to buy any more unless Covid 2 happens or some other extreme event that presents OCA at under NTA.

Gltah, this is for the bottom drawer long hold. Nice to be already well in profit, who would’ve thought 2020 would be the business model catalyst and market event to accelerate a long hold.

There’s no guessing the market, considered response is the only option.

[Curly]

Thanks Maverick. The UBS analysis is pretty in depth and a great read with lots of industry comparisons to gauge against. With UBS having a 32.5% under value and a target of value at $2.21 I'll be sticking around to watch the show over the next few years

Liking the target value of $2.21. Post result rerate hopefully. What about dividend? Hope OCA can get back to 2.3 - 2.4????

[x2rider]

Great sales numbers for Summerset today . Has to be good news for OCA as well

[winner69]

Great sales numbers for Summerset today . Has to be good news for OCA as well

Hope so ..... but some might see SUM as a better bet and sell their OCA and move to SUM

[wagwan]

Hope so ..... but some might see SUM as a better bet and sell their OCA and move to SUM

Let's hope so.. be happy to take some OCA off their hands

[Waltzing]

even if there is an out break and a move to L4 we arnt expecting a sell off in this stock.

[winner69]

Got really excited this morning when I saw OCA share price was on a roll and up to 148

Then I realised that it was 150 the other day

[Alpha]

Same here not sure what is going on. I thought we would have got through 150 by now. Is it just profit takers? Seems crazy to be selling prior to what we believe are going to be great results.

[Kashmir96]

Weak hands getting nervous with uncertainty around COVID and US inauguration perhaps?

[dompf]

Same here not sure what is going on. I thought we would have got through 150 by now. Is it just profit takers? Seems crazy to be selling prior to what we believe are going to be great results.

pretty big log jam between 148-150. Awaiting results might not be any lead up just sell up lol.

expecting a good result will move the needle.

[Louloubell]

I just dipped my toes into the OCA waters with my Sharesies play money. Has been interesting reading the OCA thread.

[blackie]

pretty big log jam between 148-150. Awaiting results might not be any lead up just sell up lol.

expecting a good result will move the needle.

i too hope good news will move the needle but ironically . often, good news inexplicably moves the needle down. look at Summerset the last couple of days.

[macduffy]

Yes, the effect that good news has on a SP depends on whether or not the news exceeds expectations - or fails to meet them!

[Waltzing]

The current SP may well be what the market considers a good performance. Builders are fully booked the news says for up to a year out.

But without a big colored board where the build rate is lit up high hot summer can sometime dull the minds of the investing public as they head for the shade in the hot months yet to come.

[dreamcatcher]

Lets see where these Retirement stock go ....posted on 4/6

Updated ---------4/6--------..6/7------------5/8................8/9...............7/10..........7/11............3/12............10/1

Arvida ..............$1.37..........$1.48 ............$1.60.............$1.65............ $1.77.........$1.78..........$1.67.........$1.75
Summerset.......$6.34..........$6.73.............$ 7.80............$8.56.............$9.15........$10 .50........$10.83........$12.35
Ryman..............$13.35........$13.04 ..........$12.77..........$13.79..........$14.85.. ......$14.70........$14.69.........$15.05
Oceania............$0.94..........$0.95 ............$1.03.............$1.04............ $1.20.........$1.36..........$1.29..........$1.46
Metlifecare........$4.28..........$5.76 ............$5.92.............$5.94............$5. 98 .........$6.00..........0000............0000

Question- has the smart money already left

[Curly]

Well Mr Mkt has reacted not as I had expected. Nothing new about that. I had expected sp to be around $1.55 about now. Seems mkt has been harsh on power coys and latterly healthcare coys. As quickly as a stock can rise, it can as quickly go down. Have we seen the rise in anticipation of the 22 Jan announcement? Hopefully a lift following announcement but don’t hold your breath. When’s the Beagle get off his naughty boy chair ? Maybe the learned dog can offer some insight.

[Joh13]

Using the sector PE average of 18 and @ $1.42 the market is only pricing in an annualised Underlying NPAT of approximately $49M which suggests maybe only $24.5M Underlying NPAT at half year the market thinks OCA will achieve. Seems undervalued at the moment considering all the analysis done suggesting 28-33M half year.

I anticipate upward movement in the SP next week as $1.42 also coincides pretty closely with the 20 day moving average as well as hidden divergence shown on the MACD histogram 1day chart and on the 4 hour chart a large number of hidden divergences.

A forward PE of 18 suggests with a range of 56-66M annualised UNPAT of $1.61-1.90 SP in the near future.

I also think that a Fwd PE of 18 is conservative and that it should be closer to 20.

GLTAH

[Habits]

Is sector average PE justified for a small player, the average amd above average PE is reserved for larger and more well known stocks right?

[Waltzing]

would investor please stop trying to ramp up the share price of this stock......:ohmy:

[Curly]

Yes moving on up ....we just dont have any where near enough of these and never will im afraid. We are moving into places like deserts...
Pot calling kettle black?

[Joh13]

would investor please stop trying to ramp up the share price of this stock......:ohmy:

Is this not a forum for people to share their opinions along with how and why they came to their conclusion?

[Curly]

Yes moving on up ....we just dont have any where near enough of these and never will im afraid. We are moving into places like deserts...


Is this not a forum for people to share their opinions along with how and why they came to their conclusion?

Precisely, take heed Beagle and Mav!

[jimdog31]

Is this not a forum for people to share their opinions along with how and why they came to their conclusion?

it sure is. Your post was appreciated. And, we need more like it.

[jimdog31]

would investor please stop trying to ramp up the share price of this stock......:ohmy:

I assume you say this because we are wanting to buy more at these levels?

[justakiwi]

Sometimes these discussions puzzle me. One minute everyone is happy as a clam with their OCA investment, then the next they are questioning a drop in SP. We all know share prices go up ... and down. Probably the number one thing I’ve learned here is ... “don’t buy/sell based on SP. If you still believe in the company and you still believe they have potential, as you did the day you bought your first shares - stay invested and ignore minor ups and downs in SP.”

I bought some more the other day when they were sitting at $1.44. Paid $1.46 for them. Closed at $1.42. I did the usual “wtf???” mini rant for about 60 seconds. Then came to my senses, remembered what I’ve learned over the past 18 months, and put it behind me. Fluctuations in SP says bugger all about a company. The market determines the price and the market isn’t always right on any given day.

JMHO for what little it’s worth.

[macduffy]

Thanks for that sensible post, jk. I was starting to despair about all the nonsense being written on this thread!

:bored:

[HCR20]

Sometimes these discussions puzzle me. One minute everyone is happy as a clam with their OCA investment, then the next they are questioning a drop in SP.

David Hume recognised that human beings reason on the basis of emotion and then engage in post-hoc cognitive reasoning that supports the initial, emotional response. This process happens so quickly and to an extent, subconsciously, that people can't see themselves doing it.

I see a lot of this on this site. People react emotionally to fluctuations in SPs and then come up with rationalisations that support their feelings. It is always important to keep Hume in mind, and when possible, guard yourself against reasoning in this way.

[Waltzing]

Yes whatch out for those science graduates speaking in monotone voices showing no emotions in life.

Every time a profit and loss comes out and that profit figure increases losing control and getting emotion and hitting the buy button and yelling out the garden as if lotto has just been won is almost built in response like flight or fright.

Now where is that OCA market update.... soon people soon.... and please dont feel you have constrain your emotions if you have a big stack and the news is good....:eek2:

[Baa_Baa]

Is this not a forum for people to share their opinions along with how and why they came to their conclusion?

Certainly is, I thought your post was well reasoned and a nice balance of FA, TA and opinion. Well done, keen to hear more from you in due course.

[winner69]

I’m sticking with my $35m underlying earnings forecast for H1

Higher than gurus Mav and B and heaps more than what guru professional analysts are implying.

It will be exciting if they report $35m ...like punters will say WOW WOW and BUY BUY .....and share price will be $1.70 in a blink of an eye.

On the other hand if it comes in $25m/$30m no worries .....Oceania a long term story and covid just delayed that famous inflection point

So next Friday it’s still oysters and chips for lunch down on the beach.

[Waltzing]

"It will be exciting if they report $35m ...like punters will say WOW WOW and BUY BUY .....and share price will be $1.70 in a blink of an eye."

... NO , really? gosh well that would be wonderful..... but the pros will say "DONT GET EMOTIONAL"


however please feel free to dance an irish jig, run outside and do a Haka... what ever brings you emotional peace of mind.

Volumn 5 is out but for occasions like these just dont bother reading it.

[winner69]

The earnings growth target for exec’s LTI remains a secret and not to be disclosed to shareholders (maybe mid year they tell me)

Probably embarrassed to disclose it’s something like 6% pa when gurus are talking 20% pa plus.

[Beagle]

UBS - Excellent research. Obvious to me they invested substantial time and resources and engaged at significant length with senior OCA management in compiling that 45 page report that came out in December.
Underlying NPAT as forecasted by them - FY20 Actual $43m, FY21 $48m, FY22 $64m, FY23 $76m, FY24 $93m, FY25 $110m, FY26 $126m.

Average daily turnover as reported by them suggests the entire stock of the company is churned every two years.
The real money with this one will be made by those who share the long term vision of the company's management and directors.

I am comfortable with their forecast and note for the ten months to 31 March 2021 that equates to approx 9.25 cps annualized from 7 cps last year, growing to FY22 10.3 cps, FY23 12.2 cps, FY24 14.9 cps, FY25 17.7 cps and 20.22 cps in FY26, (will be a little less with shares issued in lieu of dividend in the years ahead)

Regarding this year, if they make $48m underlying for the ten months, that's $4.8m per month so on a straight arithmetic basis that suggests 6 x 4.8m = $28.8m for the result later this week but I am aware that the August shutdown in Auckland cost them momentum with resale refurbishment and I think there has been some PPE costs in the half year to 30 November that are over and above the ordinary.

My initial thinking was $25-30m for the half to be announced but on further consideration over the holidays I am more comfortable right at the bottom of that range. My view is significantly different to Mav's which goes to show that whilst we sometimes confer and very much enjoy doing so, we often see things quite differently. That said I will be exceptionally pleased if the underlying profit is in the ballpark he suggested and anything over $30m would have me anxiously wanting more shares as quickly as possible so I really hope my good friend is right !

I am comfortable one year hence from here at 18 times forward earnings = 18 x 10.3 cps = $1.85 updated target price early 2022. Over time as they prove their growth rate I expect that multiple will expand to about 20 times as they prove over a number of years they can grow eps at a CAGR of something like 15%. We could see eps of 20 cps in FY26 and the market pricing the company on a forward basis in late 2025 at 20 times that number = ~ $4.

As I said earlier, the real money will be made by those with the patience to hold this for at least 5 years which is what I intend to do.

[Dlownz]

UBS - Excellent research. Obvious to me they invested substantial time and resources and engaged at significant length with senior OCA management in compiling that 45 page report that came out in December.
Underlying NPAT as forecasted by them - FY20 Actual $43m, FY21 $48m, FY22 $64m, FY23 $76m, FY24 $93m, FY25 $110m, FY26 $126m.

Average daily turnover as reported by them suggests the entire stock of the company is churned every two years.
The real money with this one will be made by those who share the long term vision of the company's management and directors.

I am comfortable with their forecast and note for the ten months to 31 March 2021 that equates to approx 9.25 cps annualized from 7 cps last year, growing to FY22 10.3 cps, FY23 12.2 cps, FY24 14.9 cps, FY25 17.7 cps and 20.22 cps in FY26, (will be a little less with shares issued in lieu of dividend in the years ahead)

Regarding this year, if they make $48m underlying for the ten months, that's $4.8m per month so on a straight arithmetic basis that suggests 6 x 4.8m = $28.8m for the result later this week but I am aware that the August shutdown in Auckland cost them momentum with resale refurbishment and I think there has been some PPE costs in the half year to 30 November that are over and above the ordinary.

My initial thinking was $25-30m for the half to be announced but on further consideration over the holidays I am more comfortable right at the bottom of that range. My view is significantly different to Mav's which goes to show that whilst we sometimes confer and very much enjoy doing so, we often see things quite differently. That said I will be exceptionally pleased if the underlying profit is in the ballpark he suggested and anything over $30m would have me anxiously wanting more shares as quickly as possible so I really hope my good friend is right !

I am comfortable one year hence from here at 18 times forward earnings = 18 x 10.3 cps = $1.85 updated target price early 2022. Over time as they prove their growth rate I expect that multiple will expand to about 20 times as they prove over a number of years they can grow eps at a CAGR of something like 15%. We could see eps of 20 cps in FY26 and the market pricing the company on a forward basis in late 2025 at 20 times that number = ~ $4.

As I said earlier, the real money will be made by those with the patience to hold this for at least 5 years which is what I intend to do.

Welcome back Beagle.
I missed you

[Waltzing]

Once again MR B has hit the bulls eye....

and our decision to stay under weight until the figures emerge are pleasing. At least 5 year hold has always been the plan with an incremental buy plan on performance matching the published plan.

Mr M is right he will enjoy the rewards along with Mr B.

[evilroyrule]

What do we make of the large off market trades in last few days?.from memory one for a million at 1,45 and another for 225k shares at 1.47. Volume ticking up

[Beagle]

Larger than normal volume on a rising share price is often a prelude to the shares breaking up into new territory. (Today's volume was about double the average).

[YoungBull]

Forsyth Barr update this morning.

[RTM]

Forsyth Barr update this morning.

.......and ?

[Shareguy]

Outperform at $1.65

[YoungBull]

$3.65...? I see an outperform rating of 1.65. Believe that OCA has reached an inflection point, assumes Q2 sales are strong but lower than Q1 due to a slowdown in “pent up demand”. EBITDA 32.3 1H21E. EBIT 24.5. Underlying profit 20.6. Positive report, looking to see care suite demand continuing to be strong and a small annuity earnings uplift.

[Nigel]

Half year result due Friday if I recall correctly.

[Beagle]

$3.65...? I see an outperform rating of 1.65. Believe that OCA has reached an inflection point, assumes Q2 sales are strong but lower than Q1 due to a slowdown in “pent up demand”. EBITDA 32.3 1H21E. EBIT 24.5. Underlying profit 20.6. Positive report, looking to see care suite demand continuing to be strong and a small annuity earnings uplift.

$20.6m underlying for the first 6 months and they are projecting $49.5m for FY21 (which is ten months), so they're expecting $28.9m for the 4 months to 31/3/21, (seems more than a little tilted to the second period which is only two thirds as long).
I read into this they are expecting new development unit deliveries and sales to be heavily weighted to the second period. Hope the market is not hugely disappointed if first half profit is lower than last year. Got to keep an eye on the long run plan.

[Mudfish]

Thanks to a mate finding this. It's a great 20 minute Youtube video that sums up what OCA is all about very well. Grab yourself a beer and watch the show. https://youtu.be/wkb_R9mC3vg

[Habits]

Info packed video cheers. And good to know that directors have large personal holdings

[winner69]

Big day tomorrow with half year

No matter what financials are I’m looking forward to hear what the likes of Beagle and Mav say about the progress Oceania are making.

[winner69]

Big day tomorrow with half year

No matter what financials are I’m looking forward to hear what the likes of Beagle and Mav say about the progress Oceania are making.

Seems we won’t be getting Beagle’s views of Oceania’s progress tomorrow after all

[Greekwatchdog]

Again....Geez

[Habits]

Seems we won’t be getting Beagle’s views of Oceania’s progress tomorrow after all

Frigging again... are the admins cat owners, certainly dont like that beagle

[Alpha]

What did he do this time? The posts I have seen of recent in OCA, HLG and TRA have been very informative.

[Curly]

$1.51 all time high.

[dubya]

Frigging again... are the admins cat owners, certainly dont like that beagle


What did he do this time? The posts I have seen of recent in OCA, HLG and TRA have been very informative.


Yes?! I thought his posts since returning were respectful and informative. I don't know what is going on. I missed Beagles posts and contributions last time he was banned. Sharetrader is A LOT poorer without him imho.

[justakiwi]

Maybe it was due to something “behind the scenes” - Vince must have his reasons.

[Joh13]

Beagles posts looked good to me. At lease we still have Maverick available :-)

[winner69]

$1.51 all time high.

Hope it’s not a case of ‘buy the rumour, sell the fact’

We’ll fibs out tomorrow

[dubya]

Hope it’s not a case of ‘buy the rumour, sell the fact’

We’ll fibs out tomorrow


I've got a funny feeling it is. I've been selling today :t_up: :t_down:. Not sure which is the right emoji to use. I guess I'll know tomorrow and next week

[allfromacell]

I think OCA will really have to blow it out of the water for the SP not to retreat a bit tomorrow, it's just ran so hard recently. I'm expecting a sell the fact event but not selling any as I'm not a trader.

[Lease]

$1.51 for OCA is still cheap from long-term perspective.

[mike2020]

I think even it is a sell tomorrow you wont have to wait long to see it well past todays price. I have been looking at what else there is available that does not look fully priced and its slim picking.

[tommy_d]

I think OCA will really have to blow it out of the water for the SP not to retreat a bit tomorrow, it's just ran so hard recently. I'm expecting a sell the fact event but not selling any as I'm not a trader.

i'm nervously excited about this one. Biggest chunk of my portfolio, and a buy order sitting in the queue just in case the price slumps for some reason
second biggest chunk is TRA. Then Scales

[Waltzing]

We agree we are looking for a pull back and then to buy SOME MORE.

There are some opportunities coming over the next 4 years to buy stocks all around the world.

We are on the dawn of new technologies and they will mature over the next ten years.

[Dlownz]

A few of OCAs results have ended in pullbacks even when the result seems good I expect more of the same tomorrow but nothing like last year's one before covid hit. Mac announced he'd sold out at 1.15 and caused the share price to pull right back from the 1.34 it hit. If it hits 25mill I'd say a 15 cent pull back. 30 mill may actually see again. And 27-28 mill will see it shed about 5-7 cents.
That my prediction.
Long term though its still a great share

[Snow Leopard]

Provided the long-term outlook, and thus my determination of fair value, does not take a knock, I will be contented.

By the time I have had my breakfast and started my analysis with the first cup of coffee of the day, I dare say you lot will have discussed the result in detail.

[mike2020]

After I left Fonterra last winter I moved 80 percent of my shareholding to OCA and its recovered most of my losses. Whatever happens today I think its the FY that will be the game changer. Thanks to everyone here who has offered their perspective and opinion, its been very helpful. Happy long term holder.

[777]

Another reduced dividend.

[Leftfield]

Results out...... see here. (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/366547)

Winner is the winner of the predictions!

Oceania Healthcare, Aged Care and Retirement Village Operator and Developer, announced today an unaudited half year underlying earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of $35.4 million for the six months ended 30 November 2020, a 2.0% ($0.7m) increase compared to the prior corresponding period (pcp).

[winner69]

You have to wonder about the Oceania business model

Again - sell heaps more units and make less (or stuff all more)

I obviously just don't get

[trader_jackson]

Beat forsyth's forecasts on virtually all fronts except the dividend... yesterday was the last day OCA will ever be below $1.50 some say. Could have borrowed more to pay a higher dividend, but nice to see net debt actually decreased.

[Lion_graf]

Good to see it's in the top range of predictions at 35.4 million. Was it their plan all along? Reduce dividend after installing DRIP?

[percy]

Yes?! I thought his posts since returning were respectful and informative. I don't know what is going on. I missed Beagles posts and contributions last time he was banned. Sharetrader is A LOT poorer without him imho.
I PMed Vince yesterday asking why Beagle had been banned again.
So far he has not replied.

[winner69]

Sales volumes up 44% but underlying earnings down 6% -- what the heck

I'm told underlying earnings is the best measure of how operations are actually going

Intuitively selling heaps more and making less doesn't seem right

[winner69]

to clear things up - my prediction was miles out - hopelessly out

I said $35m underlying earnings - it came in at $23.3m (6% lower than last year) --- big miss eh

No wonder they headlined Underlying EBITDA - at least that was up 2% on pcp (even though they sold heaps more units)

[pierre]

I PMed Vince yesterday asking why Beagle had been banned again.
So far he has not replied.

I did the same with the same result.

[LAC]

mmmm something doesnt add up.

[Ggcc]

to clear things up - my prediction was miles out - hopelessly out

I said $35m underlying earnings - it came in at $23.3m (6% lower than last year) --- big miss eh

No wonder they headlined Underlying EBITDA - at least that was up 2% on pcp (even though they sold heaps more units)

Operating cashflow increased 30.9% to $74.6m as a result of strong sales volumes and Total assets increased to $1.7 billion, up 11.8%. That has got to be good news

[thegreatestben]

I did the same with the same result.

I thought maybe he violated a restraining order on the A2 thread :p

[Habits]

NPAT up 66 percent, a higher div is probably not possible so whats not to like?

[Balance]

I PMed Vince yesterday asking why Beagle had been banned again.
So far he has not replied.

Left Field is the moderator these days?

[dameofdiv]

UBS - Excellent research. Obvious to me they invested substantial time and resources and engaged at significant length with senior OCA management in compiling that 45 page report that came out in December.
Underlying NPAT as forecasted by them - FY20 Actual $43m, FY21 $48m, FY22 $64m, FY23 $76m, FY24 $93m, FY25 $110m, FY26 $126m.

Average daily turnover as reported by them suggests the entire stock of the company is churned every two years.
The real money with this one will be made by those who share the long term vision of the company's management and directors.

I am comfortable with their forecast and note for the ten months to 31 March 2021 that equates to approx 9.25 cps annualized from 7 cps last year, growing to FY22 10.3 cps, FY23 12.2 cps, FY24 14.9 cps, FY25 17.7 cps and 20.22 cps in FY26, (will be a little less with shares issued in lieu of dividend in the years ahead)

Regarding this year, if they make $48m underlying for the ten months, that's $4.8m per month so on a straight arithmetic basis that suggests 6 x 4.8m = $28.8m for the result later this week but I am aware that the August shutdown in Auckland cost them momentum with resale refurbishment and I think there has been some PPE costs in the half year to 30 November that are over and above the ordinary.

My initial thinking was $25-30m for the half to be announced but on further consideration over the holidays I am more comfortable right at the bottom of that range. My view is significantly different to Mav's which goes to show that whilst we sometimes confer and very much enjoy doing so, we often see things quite differently. That said I will be exceptionally pleased if the underlying profit is in the ballpark he suggested and anything over $30m would have me anxiously wanting more shares as quickly as possible so I really hope my good friend is right !

I am comfortable one year hence from here at 18 times forward earnings = 18 x 10.3 cps = $1.85 updated target price early 2022. Over time as they prove their growth rate I expect that multiple will expand to about 20 times as they prove over a number of years they can grow eps at a CAGR of something like 15%. We could see eps of 20 cps in FY26 and the market pricing the company on a forward basis in late 2025 at 20 times that number = ~ $4.

As I said earlier, the real money will be made by those with the patience to hold this for at least 5 years which is what I intend to do.

I will repost Beagle's forecast for those who have missed it. Although the half year underlying NPAT is lower, it came pretty close to what Mr B's thought.

[winner69]

NPAT up 66 percent, a higher div is probably not possible so whats not to like?

Comprehensive Income $57m v last year $24m -- that's a huge 137% increase

[allfromacell]

Can anyone more accountant minded share what the 'Rental expense in relation to right of use asset' really means? I note this was 3.3M this half and last year is was 11.5M.

1. Rental expense of $3.3m in 1HY2021 relates to the right of use asset at Everil Orr village. There is a corresponding credit in IP which is also removed as part of this adjustment

[winner69]

Phenomenal increase in sales volumes as chart shows

But why no incraese in Underlying Earnings (or stuff all Underlying EBITDA)

[hogie]

I PMed Vince yesterday asking why Beagle had been banned again.
So far he has not replied.

Keep banning these guys and one day they'll simply never come back ... sad ...

[Getty]

Beagle is in obedience training, but may have become institutionalised...

[dreamcatcher]

After I left Fonterra last winter I moved 80 percent of my shareholding to OCA and its recovered most of my losses. Whatever happens today I think its the FY that will be the game changer. Thanks to everyone here who has offered their perspective and opinion, its been very helpful. Happy long term holder.

Could have stayed in Fonterra its SP has recovered nicely

[winner69]

At least NAV (Net Adjusted Value) has gone up to $1.24 per share (from $1.10 in May)

That's good

[thegreatestben]

Phenomenal increase in sales volumes as chart shows

But why no incraese in Underlying Earnings (or stuff all Underlying EBITDA)

Could they be buy off the plans sales? So they have a commitment but haven't taken full payment?

[JohnnyTheHorse]

As long as house prices (and hence NTA) keep going up things are golden.

[Leftfield]

Left Field is the moderator these days?


Not sure how it happened but it seems I'm an occasional unpaid volunteer editor and no more than that.
Vince is the Chief.
Like you all, I know nothing about Beagles latest banning.
That said, I'll be taking a holiday break for the next 3 months.... so best wishes to you all.

BTW I'm pretty happy with the latest OCA result. My av holding SP under $1.00 and I'm a long term hold..... will DCA as and when I see opportunities.

[Bjauck]

I PMed Vince yesterday asking why Beagle had been banned again.
So far he has not replied.
Beagle is an invaluable mainstay. It is a shame that, if necessary, a more targeted banning is not possible - for example, being banned from certain threads?

As another LT holder I am content with OCA results.

[winner69]

Book Value up 10% to $1.05 from May (revaluation gains)

So at shareprice $1.50 trading at 1.4 times Book Value

[Rawz]

Beagle is an invaluable mainstay. It is a shame that a more targeted banning is not possible - for example, being banned from certain threads?

Agree. And the other veterans of ST with similar quality posts often come in to share their thoughts and predictions more when a quality Beagle post goes up. And vise versa. Like a feedback loop. Quality feeds quality.

[Habits]

Agree. And the other veterans of ST with similar quality posts often come in to share their thoughts and predictions more when a quality Beagle post goes up. And vise versa. Like a feedback loop. Quality feeds of quality.

The beagle posts are ones I look for and I bet I am not alone. Helps me as a novie to gain insight. Maybe we culd chip in a couple bucks to pay his fines lol

[Ggcc]

Looking at the depth. Traders are not sure whether to sell or to buy haha

[dobby41]

Keep banning these guys and one day they'll simply never come back ... sad ...

It isn't done on a whim - Vince is quite light handed really.

[Waltzing]

Sorry has Mr B been banned over night again?

We spend little time here like many we have a lot of behind the scene work going on and we cannot and do not post any copyright information.

[RupertBear]

Beagle is an invaluable mainstay. It is a shame that, if necessary, a more targeted banning is not possible - for example, being banned from certain threads?

As another LT holder I am content with OCA results.

I agree the Beagle has a massive depth of knowledge and it would be a shame to loose him from ST completely. I am guessing his latest ban was to do with his further comments on the ATM thread about Couta. He seems unable to stop himself commenting on Couta, which is not only weird its unfair on Couta and it does need to stop. Time to move on :)

[justakiwi]

Agreed. I think people need to remember that this is Vince’s forum. We enjoy the benefits of being here free. It is not too much for him to expect us all to follow the rules, be respectful of each other ​and of his decisions. Also worth remembering that sometimes there are conflicts going on being the scenes (via PM) that we are not aware of. If Beagle is banned again, there is a reason.

And just so you know ... I was banned once - but learned my lesson ;)


It isn't done on a whim - Vince is quite light handed really.

[Waltzing]

Has Mr SNOP done any research on OCA. We are away this morning and have not had time to work through the profit and loss.

We would spend more time on this but the OCA business model is so big we just dont have time to run the profit and loss through our software models.

Reduction in the Div im afraid does tell us that cash flow is perhaps being diverted to the conversion construction model and that reduction of debt is also a good thing.

[Dlownz]

A few of OCAs results have ended in pullbacks even when the result seems good I expect more of the same tomorrow but nothing like last year's one before covid hit. Mac announced he'd sold out at 1.15 and caused the share price to pull right back from the 1.34 it hit. If it hits 25mill I'd say a 15 cent pull back. 30 mill may actually see again. And 27-28 mill will see it shed about 5-7 cents.
That my prediction.
Long term though its still a great share
Back to the results.

So come back to 1.35 expected now maybe....

[sb9]

I agree the Beagle has a massive depth of knowledge and it would be a shame to loose him from ST completely. I am guessing his latest ban was to do with his further comments on the ATM thread about Couta. He seems unable to stop himself commenting on Couta, which is not only weird its unfair on Couta and it does need to stop. Time to move on :)

Well said, couldn't agree more on the last sentence. Just need to leave people to make their own investment decisions.

[Leftfield]

It isn't done on a whim - Vince is quite light handed really.

I agree. We all welcome robust debate on Shares.

However when that debate includes derogatory personal comments, then it is not welcomed.

Further to my post #7725 above, I understand Beagle was banned for a post (now deleted #19631) on the ATM thread.

The lessons we can all learn, is; Be kind to other posters.

Many years ago when debating possible rules for this forum Mini Moke proposed a #1 rule;

"No personal abuse of a Members including the use of expressions of bigotry, racism, sexism, hatred or profanity."

That's all from me on this..... back to OCA and share investing.

[Rawz]

I agree the Beagle has a massive depth of knowledge and it would be a shame to loose him from ST completely. I am guessing his latest ban was to do with his further comments on the ATM thread about Couta. He seems unable to stop himself commenting on Couta, which is not only weird its unfair on Couta and it does need to stop. Time to move on :)

Yes spot on. When he mentioned his name on said ATM post I was like, "nooooooooooooooo, why why why". Lol. Ah well.

[Dlownz]

Back to the results.

So come back to 1.35 expected now maybe....

Here we go

[trader_jackson]

Beat forsyth's forecasts on virtually all fronts except the dividend... yesterday was the last day OCA will ever be below $1.50 some say. Could have borrowed more to pay a higher dividend, but nice to see net debt actually decreased.

Looks like yesterday wasn't the last day OCA will be $1.50... such a drop in dividend might be surprising for some along with selling heaps more but underlying profit not up much.

[Waltzing]

There will be some profit taking and movement towards stocks that may in the next 12 months provide higher growth and dividend.

[dabsman]

Great result for others in the sector looking at those sales numbers...

[Waltzing]

it certainly appears that SUM other share was the one to invest in in the short term.

Doubt we will see 1.50 again for perhaps 12 months or more.

[dabsman]

it certainly appears that SUM other share was the one to invest in in the short term.

Doubt we will see 1.50 again for perhaps 12 months or more.

Or this afternoon

[bull....]

back at desk on monday , but a quick note i thought i would add it was a disappointing result , no div increase and margin erosion continues. i sold today.
sum is my preferred play in the sector.

[Waltzing]

We have not had time to go through the numbers but on the simple P&L increase in unit sales does not seem to have increased total half year revenue by a large percentage.

Perhaps someone with a comprehensive model can put forward the statement such as they met expected profit on units sold.

If they did meet expected profit margin on units sold then yes 1.5 could hold.

Bull just posted and confirms our view and Bull just profited again on trading the result..


DISC: we dont trade this stock but we see much bigger growth after this result in off shore travel stocks.

[justakiwi]

Never mind.

[trader_jackson]

Looking great for ARV that is for sure!

[bull....]

We have not had time to go through the numbers but on the simple P&L increase in unit sales does not seem to have increased total half year revenue by a large percentage.

Perhaps someone with a comprehensive model can put forward the statement such as they met expected profit on units sold.

If they did meet expected profit margin on units sold then yes 1.5 could hold.

Bull just posted and confirms our view and Bull just profited again on trading the result..


DISC: we dont trade this stock but we see much bigger growth after this result in off shore travel stocks.

i did say it would run up into result , i also gave a clue in a post about 1.50 were they fools for selling . anyway i post more next week when we are back at work