OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[tommy_d]

The "worms" are cestode parasites with an interesting life history involving seabirds as secondary hosts. In the couta, they live in the gut and when the fish dies, they burrow their way out into the flesh through the gut wall. If you kill the fish and take the fillets off before it has stopped twitching you will find the fillets are worm free.
That's a great tip, will try it next time. Would rapid gutting and icing achieve the same thing?

[davflaws]

That's a great tip, will try it next time. Would rapid gutting and icing achieve the same thing?
No direct experience - but should do.

[aquaman]

FYI re divi reinvestment plan. For those of us who are long term holders this is probably a good time to take advantage. I know I will be at this discounted rate. Shut off COB tomorrow for signing up to to the reinvestment plan
"This plan shall also be effective for the dividendpayable on 21 June 2022 at a discount of 2% to the volume weighted average price of shares sold on the NZX Main Boardover a period of five trading days starting on 3 June 2022. The dividend reinvestment plan shall apply to those shareholderswho have provided a participation election by 5:00pm on the dividend election date, being 8 June 2022"

[Grimy]

Yes, I've changed from cash to reinvestment this time around.

[limmy]

If you don't need the cash, it's always better to take the reinvestment and enjoy the 2% discount. It's like the miracle of compound interest. Just watch your investment multiply ... good move !

[couta1]

Liz Coutts continues to add to her already substantial holding.

[Rawz]

So Mav and Ferg say the coming years are going to richly reward patient shareholders based on their very thorough research and modeling..

Then a couple of weeks later the insiders start buying indicating that the vast research and models are correct... i mean.. surely there isnt ever going to be a better buy signal?

[RupertBear]

So Mav and Ferg say the coming years are going to richly reward patient shareholders based on their very thorough research and modeling..

Then a couple of weeks later the insiders start buying indicating that the vast research and models are correct... i mean.. surely there isnt ever going to be a better buy signal?

Agree. Took the opportunity to top up today. Thanks again to Maverick and Ferg for sharing all their research and thoughts with us. Much appreciated.

[couta1]

So Mav and Ferg say the coming years are going to richly reward patient shareholders based on their very thorough research and modeling..

Then a couple of weeks later the insiders start buying indicating that the vast research and models are correct... i mean.. surely there isnt ever going to be a better buy signal? How many Green flashing lights do you need? Trouble is its easy to get locked into myopic vision mode.

[Sideshow Bob]

Liz Coutts continues to add to her already substantial holding.

Looks like out of EBO, SKL and OCA, that OCA is the only one she is adding to.

[jagger]

Looks like out of EBO, SKL and OCA, that OCA is the only one she is adding to.

Front running the takeover offer.

[ralph]

Backdown below a dollar again ,hats looking tasty Its a big red bear day for many

[Poolboy]

Quite funny really. All the n-depth analysis and we wouldn't have a clue in hell where the price is going.

[couta1]

Quite funny really. All the n-depth analysis and we wouldn't have a clue in hell where the price is going. Emotion of Fear overrides in depth analysis and everything else to boot.

[Waltzing]

Looks like it going to bounce about the 100 for a while..

[ralph]

Quite funny really. All the n-depth analysis and we wouldn't have a clue in hell where the price is going.

Everything is on the same ski slope in this bear market look at gne to name but one everyone's talking them up .
The only reality is long term when the Bulls are back things will go up just be on the horse then

[Gerald]

Front running the takeover offer.

Nope, clearly no approaches or anything, otherwise she wouldn't be allowed to buy. Tiny amount anyway relative to all her salaries.

[couta1]

Nope, clearly no approaches or anything, otherwise she wouldn't be allowed to buy. Tiny amount anyway relative to all her salaries. She's holding near 1.7 mill shares in total though so not insignificant by any measure.

[Poolboy]

Emotion of Fear overrides in depth analysis and everything else to boot.

Yeah, it seems like we are about to crawl ahead and some new disaster raises it's ugly head.

[jagger]

Nope, clearly no approaches or anything, otherwise she wouldn't be allowed to buy. Tiny amount anyway relative to all her salaries.

I was obviously being facetious.

[Bjauck]

I was obviously being facetious. A week may well be a long time politics, it certainly is in the share market. The strike price for the DRiP of 0.9875 is starting to look a bit expensive now, with the SP currently at 0.98

[winner69]

That issue that there may be many more care suites for sale than are officially on the books as vacant.is a worry .... and we'll never know what that was true but it raises questions about the transparency (and integrity) around the numbers they report.

Now there's a disgruntled Ryman share holder who questions how they are allowed to call nearly completed units (but still many months off being completed) as completed and even book profits now on future sales.

And some have commented that Oceania accounts are very obtuse - even to the point that it seems intentional to confuse punters so they don't really know whats going on.

Seems a bit of dodgy stuff going on in the sector and makes you wonder about the 'credibility' of what's in the Reports

Result ... wary punters and share prices not really reflecting a 'reasonably true' value

All red flag stuff to me

[Snow Leopard]

A week may well be a long time politics, it certainly is in the share market. The strike price for the DRiP of 0.9875 is starting to look a bit expensive now, with the SP currently at 0.98

But the new shares are 'pari passu'. That must be worth something extra :cool:

[Lease]

Now there's a disgruntled Ryman share holder who questions how they are allowed to call nearly completed units (but still many months off being completed) as completed and even book profits now on future sales.



I really can't see how such thing has happened. The accounts were audited. Incompleted units simply can't be treated as completed.

[Grimy]

A week may well be a long time politics, it certainly is in the share market. The strike price for the DRiP of 0.9875 is starting to look a bit expensive now, with the SP currently at 0.98

Blame me. It was always going to head that way, the moment I opted in.............

[winner69]

I really can't see how such thing has happened. The accounts were audited. Incompleted units simply can't be treated as completed.

Ryman say meets all accounting standards and auditors happy blah blah

This is interesting from that shareholder -

The fact that 411 of the reported 419 units and beds were not actually complete at 31 March 2022, is a material issue; I feel that there should be more transparent disclosure to shareholders.

[jagger]

Ryman say meets all accounting standards and auditors happy blah blah

This is interesting from that shareholder -

The fact that 411 of the reported 419 units and beds were not actually complete at 31 March 2022, is a material issue; I feel that there should be more transparent disclosure to shareholders.

Does OCA even report their new stock numbers though?

Even if they put these in a report I strongly suspect they're not the subject of any audit, like Ryman's completion numbers.
Auditors check the financials, these are non-financial metrics.a

No one is sending an audit grad to check the roof is on and the structure is sufficiently watertight to be deemed 'complete'.

[winner69]

Does OCA even report their new stock numbers though?

Even if they put these in a report I strongly suspect they're not the subject of any audit, like Ryman's completion numbers.
Auditors check the financials, these are non-financial metrics.a

No one is sending an audit grad to check the roof is on and the structure is sufficiently watertight to be deemed 'complete'.

As they are given a value in the books and in some cases assumed to be sold and profits booked there would be some checks done by the auditors to give some reassurance to the accuracy of what management / directors have signed off as completed.

Not saying they would check every unit but do some reality checks.

[jagger]

You seem very sure about this.

[Ferg]

Have you got a link for the 411/419 winner? I can't find any reference to that in their report or presentation.

[Baa_Baa]

Have you got a link for the 411/419 winner? I can't find any reference to that in their report or presentation.

If you're looking at OCA reporting you won't find it, Ferg. Winner is reporting on a RYM shareholders concern, which is where the numbers are coming from, and unsubstantiated at this stage, and he's extrapolating that concern to OCA. Whether that is justified or not is another matter. I doubt it.

It's almost as if winner wants to see OCA damned to hell, finding any thread of reason to doubt OCA's future. I know it's hard for shareholders seeing the whole sector getting slammed, but this is a systemic sector event unfolding, sector wide, market wide. Trying to pin that on RYM lying to shareholders, and ergo OCA too, is a long bow imo.

[Ferg]

Thanks Baa Baa. I was looking at the annual report for RYM and couldn't find any reference to it.....although I may have had a "man's look". Even a text search for "41" turned up nothing of significance in the latest RYM AR.

winner/jagger : the extra unsold new units for OCA is a surprise but not a concern. They don't disclose the new unsold units and suites in the AR, HYR or presentations. We understand some care patients were moved from about to be demolished facilities into newly built and not yet sold suites, which makes sense from a care and patient perspective. Given it has not yet been sold where it is subject to a new ORA, then that also makes sense that it is classified as "unsold" and is excluded from the embedded value calculations etc.

So these suites are new, unsold but occupied. This sounds like an oxymoron. But it actually makes sense given the demolition of existing facilities to make way for new facilities and the need to re-house those patients. Once OCA record their first ORA against each such suite, then it will be treated as a new sale with all the resultant accounting entries and treatment. It is simply another potential layer of confusion but can be explained. There were approximately 150 patients in this situation at year end which reduces the "unsold" inventory by one third.

Hopefully that helps.

[jagger]

Thanks Ferg, I understood it.

My point was OCA don't disclose new stock numbers so omitting the unsold, but occupied, care suites wasn't misleading because the stock number wasn't disclosed anyway.
That's not to say I don't think it should be disclosed (but that's OCA's perogative, as it is any other operator).

The transfer of residents is a well canvassed issue on the brownfield developments.
Prefer new care centres to have some occupied (albiet unsold) suites receiving care fees rather than a fully staffed centre and no/few residents.

[Beagle]

I think the issue Winner is getting at and its a concern for investors generally in the sector is what constitutes "delivery" of new units.
I used to think delivery meant the unit was delivered to the incoming resident, i.e. they took possession of the license to occupy.
When any company in this sector says we delivered XYZ units in the year it probably means they completed the construction and fit out to a standard of "practical completion".

It may not mean Council have signed off with final code of compliance or the landscaping and finishing touches are complete.
For example with stage 2 Awatere in Hamilton, 63 units "completed" in March 2022.
It would seem few were sold and yet SUM in this sector presell almost all their village units before completion...maybe people should have a think about why some villages completely sell out before completion and others hardly presell any.

From the call, there were 450 units unsold as at balance date, (a whole years worth of sales and a vastly higher stock situation that any other company in this sector). That number was confirmed twice because the analyst that asked the question was obviously deeply surprised by answer the first time. Some of the care suites in that number, about 80 by my calculations have been temporarily made available as premium accommodation rooms.

During the year they sold only 184 new units and there were 266 resales....but they have 450 new care suites and units available for sale and another 113 care suites due for completion this half. Over the last 5 years their margin on care has declined from 19% to 12% despite the much touted care suites being sold to us as the panacea for all their problems with low returns on care. Hmmm

I think the huge level of unsold units and the way returns on care have radically declined since they listed speaks for itself. Care suites are clearly not finding favour with elderly residents needing care. Good luck...to me the business model is working very well for residents, staff and management but doesn't work well for shareholders.

Disc: No vested interest, not short and not looking to buy them at a lower price because in the long run I think SUM's business model is vastly superior.

[bull....]

That issue that there may be many more care suites for sale than are officially on the books as vacant.is a worry .... and we'll never know what that was true but it raises questions about the transparency (and integrity) around the numbers they report.

Now there's a disgruntled Ryman share holder who questions how they are allowed to call nearly completed units (but still many months off being completed) as completed and even book profits now on future sales.

And some have commented that Oceania accounts are very obtuse - even to the point that it seems intentional to confuse punters so they don't really know whats going on.

Seems a bit of dodgy stuff going on in the sector and makes you wonder about the 'credibility' of what's in the Reports

Result ... wary punters and share prices not really reflecting a 'reasonably true' value

All red flag stuff to me

if im correct under accounting rules property developers are allowed to recognize profit over time
so they could book profits on uncompleted units

[couta1]

I think the issue Winner is getting at and its a concern for investors generally in the sector is what constitutes "delivery" of new units.
I used to think delivery meant the unit was delivered to the incoming resident, i.e. they took possession of the license to occupy.
When any company in this sector says we delivered XYZ units in the year it probably means they completed the construction and fit out to a standard of "practical completion".

It may not mean Council have signed off with final code of compliance or the landscaping and finishing touches are complete.
For example with stage 2 Awatere in Hamilton, 63 units "completed" in March 2022.
It would seem few were sold and yet SUM in this sector presell almost all their village units before completion...maybe people should have a think about why some villages completely sell out before completion and others hardly presell any.

From the call, there were 450 units unsold as at balance date, (a whole years worth of sales and a vastly higher stock situation that any other company in this sector). That number was confirmed twice because the analyst that asked the question was obviously deeply surprised by answer the first time. Some of the care suites in that number, about 80 by my calculations have been temporarily made available as premium accommodation rooms.

During the year they sold only 184 new units and there were 266 resales....but they have 450 new care suites and units available for sale and another 113 care suites due for completion this half. Over the last 5 years their margin on care has declined from 19% to 12% despite the much touted care suites being sold to us as the panacea for all their problems with low returns on care. Hmmm

I think the huge level of unsold units and the way returns on care have radically declined since they listed speaks for itself. Care suites are clearly not finding favour with elderly residents needing care. Good luck...to me the business model is working very well for residents, staff and management but doesn't work well for shareholders.

Disc: No vested interest, not short and not looking to buy them at a lower price because in the long run I think SUM's business model is vastly superior. SUM's business model is far from superior when it comes to the care side and that is important to many people, if I needed any form of care I would head straight to an OCA or RYM village and the thing is that even if you buy an independent unit it doesn't mean you won't need care help at a latter stage.

[jagger]

Property developers can only do that to the extent they have presales.

[bull....]

Property developers can only do that to the extent they have presales.

yea but i believe , i may be wrong im not a tax accountant you can use an input or output calc of exp to recognize future revenue without having a pre sale ?

[Beagle]

SUM's business model is far from superior when it comes to the care side and that is important to many people, if I needed any form of care I would head straight to an OCA or RYM village and the thing is that even if you buy an independent unit it doesn't mean you won't need care help at a latter stage.

I respect your knowledge of the retirement village industry however the fact of the matter is there is very, very little money in care and from an investment point of view, (which is what we're talking about on here), the returns from independent living units are quite clearly, vastly superior to care units. My contention is that generally speaking most people want a "full feature" village which is why RYM and SUM achieve great presales for most of their villages and OCA with their "boutique" villages generally do not.

When I first invested in OCA I thought the care suites would turn things around so OCA could earn even better returns with their care suites than others do on their independent living units. I think we all thought that. We were "sold" that story by Earl Gasparich...the very same man that told an analysts call in January 2021 that staff costs would broadly rise in line with Government funding going forward, (or words to that effect), and of course we know how badly that's turned out. The fact is this company has not achieved the objectives it laid out in the initial float.

For me there is such a very serious credibility problem with the whole business model transformation story were were "sold". OCA's marketing catch cry of "Believe in Better" is simply no longer believable from an investors point of view. I acknowledge it may be believable from a residents, staff and management point of view.

Ultimately, as I see it, your and other shareholders hope is that OCA's excellence in care service will drive better returns in the future. There is no concrete earings evidence to date in the last half decade to support that hope. All the earnings per share evidence to date, (keep in mind I am a numbers man and try and leave emotions out of investing decisions) suggests their business model is not working anywhere near as well for shareholders as SUM with their full feature, "land based cruise ship" care lite villages. The sales evidence is clear and emphatic, people generally have a very strong preference for villages with all the bells and whistles.

5 years into this its clear the whole care suite thing hasn't worked and while earnings for OCA have gone nowhere, (actually backwards in inflation adjusted underlying earnings per share terms), SUM's underlying profit has risen 2.5 times over the same period.
At the end of the day the financial results speak for themselves and share prices over the long run follow earnings which explains why OCA's share price is in the doldrums.

For me its this simple, you'd have to be a very "brave" man indeed over the medium to long term to bet that OCA with its business model which has yet to prove it can grow earnings will beat SUM's business model with its ten year average proven rate of 33% per annum underlying earnings growth.
My contention is simply this, some business models work well for shareholders and some don't. Good luck mate.

[bottomfeeder]

Business models are not etched in stone. They can be modified and varied any time when management feels the necessity to do so. Care units are not contracted for the life of the occupant, no matter how short.

Unfortunately, care units are a necessity, and will always have their demand. If as you say they are unprofitable then I see them being reduced in number by the operators. I also see the Government either increasing their minimum contribution, or mandating each operator to supply minimum quantities of care units as a requisite to approve funding.

This is not going to happen overnight, but will work its way through the system. Market forces will prevail. It is unlikely operators will continue to run aspects of their businesses at a loss for very long.

[mike2020]

I know someone with a small rest home with hospital care level services and the comments I hear make me think it is running very close to a loss with government underfunding. Things must be coming to a head? All the talk from Team Jacinda in the first term blaming the outgoing government really looking very hollow. Just looking at the big listed companies and thinking that property gains are used to support care ignores a large number of elderly who's care givers must be under huge stress.

[jagger]

yea but i believe , i may be wrong im not a tax accountant you can use an input or output calc of exp to recognize future revenue without having a pre sale ?

Property developers can only recognise revenue on unconditional sales.

So if you've presold 20% of the value of the development, unconditionally (important!), and you've completed 50% of the build then you can recognise 10% (i.e. 20% x 50%) of the value of the revenue.

This doesn't work to the same extent for retirement village / aged care because you're not preselling as much during construction. Unconditional RV presales, if any, are only secured very close to completion whereas property developers are required by their banks to get the development presold before starting construction.

[Curly]

A week may well be a long time politics, it certainly is in the share market. The strike price for the DRiP of 0.9875 is starting to look a bit expensive now, with the SP currently at 0.98
Will be topping up again at .95c as soon as dividend proceeds received.

[rugila]

Will be topping up again at .95c as soon as dividend proceeds received.Ever hear of .90c, .85c and ...?

Someone on here was talking about (maybe) getting more OCA if it ever went down to 1.25c. That was several months ago.

[winner69]

I find this rather interesting

Comparing these numbers from the 2012 Cash Flow Statement to the 2022 report - like from 10 years ago

In $'000s
Receipts from Customers 184,065 in 2012 and 190,096 in 2022
Payments to Suppliers and Employees 168,682 in 2012 and 207,814 in 2022


Hardly any increase in Receipts but Payments up $40m

[Beagle]

Yeap, costs are absolutely rampant.

[couta1]

Winner and Beagle the 2 biggest non holding downrampers as far as OCA is concerned, you guys must like talking to the hand.

[Snow Leopard]

I find this rather interesting

Comparing these numbers from the 2012 Cash Flow Statement to the 2022 report - like from 10 years ago

In $'000s
Receipts from Customers 184,065 in 2012 and 190,096 in 2022
Payments to Suppliers and Employees 168,682 in 2012 and 207,814 in 2022


Hardly any increase in Receipts but Payments up $40m

Where did the 2012 numbers come from?

[ i.e. IPO document, FY presentation, etc, ? ]

[winner69]

Where did the 2012 numbers come from?

[ i.e. IPO document, FY presentation, etc, ? ]

Companies Office of course

IPO they only posted up 2014 onwards reports -- just I like 10 year history when studying train wrecks

[Beagle]

Winner and Beagle the 2 biggest non holding downrampers as far as OCA is concerned, you guys must like talking to the hand.

Ever thought that is is merely in the interest of good healthy informative debate and open discussion to help others ?

Or the fact there are good reasons that I or Winner do not hold. If you had it your way Couta1, every thread would be holders posting away in an endless positive feedback loop in blissful ignorance, oblivious to any possible problems.

Good stuff on the 10 years analysis Winner, shows you where ALL the gains over a full decade have gone. OCA a wonderful company for residents, staff and management. They're all doing exceptionally well thanks to the business model being heavily tilted in their favour.

[couta1]

Ever thought that is is merely in the interest of good healthy informative debate and open discussion to help others ?

Or the fact there are good reasons that I or Winner do not hold. If you had it your way Couta1, every thread would be holders posting away in an endless positive feedback loop in blissful ignorance, oblivious to any possible problems. But when you have heard the same story dozens of times it serves no purpose other than your own amusement. Oh yes and I was just reminded by a couple of members that you stated that you were done with this thread and stock not long ago? Tui anyone.

[Beagle]

But when you have heard the same story dozens of times it serves no purpose other than your own amusement. Oh yes and I was just reminded by a couple of members that you stated that you were done with this thread and stock not long ago?

Thought there was a bit of extra knowledge worth imparting regarding the stock situation seeing how the so called oracle of this stock no longer shares. Winner is dead right about the toxic oil slick effect in here.

[justakiwi]

.......................


Thought there was a bit of extra knowledge worth imparting regarding the stock situation seeing how the so called oracle of this stock no longer shares.

[Beagle]

Thanks for adding such "insightful and detailed analysis" about OCA.

[justakiwi]

I have posted numerous insightful posts, based on my experience of working in the residential aged care. What you do not seem to appreciate, or value, is input from those who work in the sector, who actually understand what aged care actually is. I leave the analysis to you, but analysis alone is meaningless if you do not comprehend what OCA is doing, and why.



Thanks for adding such "insightful and detailed analysis" about OCA.

[couta1]

I have posted numerous insightful posts, based on my experience of working in the residential aged care. What you do not seem to appreciate, or value, is input from those who work in the sector, who actually understand what aged care actually is. I leave the analysis to you, but analysis alone is meaningless if you do not comprehend what OCA is doing, and why. Nice answer and you have indeed done your own analysis of the company, just not in a pure number crunching sense yet it is just as valuable.

[RGR367]

The contrarian in me says it's time to start backing up the ute when the sp is this low :cool: Another 5 cents down and I'll use a dumpster.

[jagger]

The contrarian in me says it's time to start backing up the ute when the sp is this low :cool: Another 5 cents down and I'll use a dumpster.

MET have a pretty big dumpster...

[winner69]

Property prices still falling

HPI down 1.6% from April to may ..... last 3 months down 5.6% .... and only 3.7% upon a year ago

[bottomfeeder]

Property prices still falling

HPI down 1.6% from April to may ..... last 3 months down 5.6% .... and only 3.7% upon a year ago

Well let's have a discussion on general property prices and effects on value of OCA units.

Costs of new construction is going up and up and up. This will flow through to second hand and existing OCA units.I am reroofing my house and the cost has gone up 10% from a month ago. Damm I should have accepted that quote back then.

Supply and demand will be the sales model soon, this will be based on replacement cost. I think the supply and demand in the general housing market, is based on a number of other factors. Valuation of OCA units has in the future to be based on replacement costs, less depreciation. We all know with the aging population demand for elderly care will be ever increasing. There are very few satisfactory alternatives out there.

Do interest rates affect the elderly so much, a lot are mortgage free with, additional savings and investments.

Licence to occupy, is cheaper than ownership of a home anyway. Also it relieves you of the burden of ongoing maintenance, particularly large ticket items such as reroofing.

Those elderly that either don't own their own home or have savings will have to be content with a basic care room paid for by the DHB.

The alternative is what?

Haters just think that OCA is going to sell units below cost, because the housing market has had a bit of a relapse.

Inflation will start to factor into all second hand property very soon.

[mike2020]

I am inclined to agree. I have had quotes on new builds in the last week and even though the paper work was only 4 weeks old the prices were said to be 10% higher. That was across 3 different companies.

[bottomfeeder]

When the world placed sanctions on Russia, the rouble dropped like a stone. They increased interest rates to prop up the rouble. Let's face it it doesn't matter which comes first rising inteterest rates or lower dollar, the end result is the same. When the dollar is worth less asset values should increase. It is only borrowers that flee the housing market in times of rising interest rates. Value of property should be a safe haven in times of inflation which coincides with a lower dollar. Why a lower dollar, because they printed so much of it. Everything is topsy turvey at the moment. Higher costs of construction must translate into higher secondhand property prices, only there is a time lag. In these times of rampant inflation property based business, must be the safest investment. Particularly when prices are dropping.

Then again if you believe the government is committed to tightening the money supply (which I doubt, they may stop the loosening) then asset values should follow the downward trend. Now it's just a mix, that we have to guess as to what extent each factor will take. In these times of volatility, there is money to be made as well as lost. Hope OCA is a long term winner.

[Waltzing]

well US dollar according to Siegal will drop in value next year by 20%.

check the M 's.

RBNZ is tightening on their last meeting and more expected.



Related
Last
Previous
Unit
Reference


Interest Rate (https://tradingeconomics.com/new-zealand/interest-rate)
2.00
1.50
percent
May 2022


Money Supply M1 (https://tradingeconomics.com/new-zealand/money-supply-m1)
141243.00
140155.00
NZD Million
Apr 2022




https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-tools/large-scale-asset-purchase-programme#:~:text=The%20LSAP%20programme%20had%20t he,to%20%2453%20billion%20of%20bonds.

[bottomfeeder]

Can't believe it. OCA has lost $470 mill in market cap from its 52 week high in SP. Just unbelievable.

[bull....]

Can't believe it. OCA has lost $470 mill in market cap from its 52 week high in SP. Just unbelievable.

yep be back at covid lows at this rate

[couta1]

Can't believe it. OCA has lost $470 mill in market cap from its 52 week high in SP. Just unbelievable. Yet the business just keeps on keeping on, sometimes you get a big disconnect between market cap and true value but when the market is not taking its meds anything can happen. Lol

[couta1]

yep be back at covid lows at this rate Well yeah and the moon could also fall toward earth.

[winner69]

Can't believe it. OCA has lost $470 mill in market cap from its 52 week high in SP. Just unbelievable.

Hope nobody has to sell the bonds they issued a few months ago ..... in total they are down $14m as well

But hold them until 2028 and you get your buck back .... hopefully OCA shares will be $1.58 by 2028 as well ...that's 8% pa ....possible

No worries then - just keep holding until then

[Old mate]

Could be said we will never see 1$ again:t_up:

[bull....]

Could be said we will never see 1$ again:t_up:

classic ..........

[couta1]

Hope nobody has to sell the bonds they issued a few months ago ..... in total they are down $14m as well

But hold them until 2028 and you get your buck back .... hopefully OCA shares will be $1.58 by 2028 as well ...that's 8% pa ....possible

No worries then - just keep holding until then Should be at least $3 by 2028 but you needn't concern yourself with such issues as none of it will affect you, let us holders worry about these trivial matters.

[Poolboy]

No worries then - just keep holding until then



A change of government will help. I'm looking forward to things being normalised.

[blackie]

Well yeah and the moon could also fall toward earth.

just for the science nerds amongst us

"Gravity curves the moon's path just enough to match the curve of the Earth. So the moon doesn't fall to Earth. It falls around the Earth. The moon is always falling, but it never falls down!"

[Waltzing]

Winner(n) and Mr B can become share holders when ever they wish.

Its a free market and if your an accountant you will probably change your mind when the numbers indicate its a good return on an investment that matches other potential investment sectors.

Right now its not even level pegging with a TD.

When it shows some growth the market will pile in.

[couta1]

Winner(n) and Mr B can become share holders when ever they wish.

Its a free market and if your an accountant you will probably change your mind when the numbers indicate its a good return on an investment that matches other potential investment sectors.

Right now its not even level pegging with a TD.

When it shows some growth the market will pile in. Are you their mouthpiece?

[jagger]

Are you their mouthpiece?

Genuine question; why do you take any criticism of this stock so personally?

Disclosure: I'm long the stock. I just find it funny how impassioned people get on both sides about a single stock.
Not a great way to be if you want to invest objectively as there are a million alternative homes for money.
Even though I'm long I think the business deserves some hard questions, it's hardly infallible.

[couta1]

Genuine question; why do you take any criticism of this stock so personally?

Disclosure: I'm long the stock. I just find it funny how impassioned people get on both sides about a single stock.
Not a great way to be if you want to invest objectively as there are a million alternative homes for money.
Even though I'm long I think the business deserves some hard questions, it's hardly infallible. Was a bit of humorous sarcasm, Waltzing seems to be Beagles sidekick (Or is that Parrot) and follows him around like a bad smell.

[Beagle]

Genuine question; why do you take any criticism of this stock so personally?

Disclosure: I'm long the stock. I just find it funny how impassioned people get on both sides about a single stock.
Not a great way to be if you want to invest objectively as there are a million alternative homes for money.
Even though I'm long I think the business deserves some hard questions, it's hardly infallible.

Winner sent me an interesting article recently. The oil slick effect which explains the hate and vitriol directed at anyone with a dissenting opinion.
PM me if you want a link to it.

[Waltzing]

Well coming from an accounting back ground building transaction models for over 35 years one might admit to a predilection reading the comments of Professional ACA's when their numbers add up, its as simple as that.

Some investors develop rules for investing and those rules for the best are just usually based on FA.

Those investors outperform its as simple as that.

Another not to be missed is DIC SNOP; Winner(N=>) ; FM ; Snow Cat .

There are some very good charts published by others and some nice Tables from LEK.

Follow many here that would clearly do well as full time pros.

This SP must hold .90

Chart looks pretty sick wonder if Bull will even bother with this one as their doesnt seem much of a chance of trade here at the moment.

[couta1]

Sometimes I wonder if some aren't running multiple accounts on here under different names? Something to ponder.

[bull....]

new lows again :scared: but take solace most other stocks are in the same boat

[GTM 3442]

Hope nobody has to sell the bonds they issued a few months ago ..... in total they are down $14m as well

But hold them until 2028 and you get your buck back .... hopefully OCA shares will be $1.58 by 2028 as well ...that's 8% pa ....possible

No worries then - just keep holding until then

There are a few like these. Corporate treasurers who made some very timely calls about funding back in 2020. If only more of them had been so bold!

[YoungBull]

This stock is turning into a Benjamin Graham “cigar butt” play 😂

[couta1]

This stock is turning into a Benjamin Graham “cigar butt” play  Yeah but who is doing the selling? take a look around all the stocks today and check out the volumes, absolutely no conviction in it, it seems to me the only ones selling are the panickers/those that really need the cash and the bored filling in time while ordering another drink.

[bottomfeeder]

Its clearly a crash. Reminds me of March 2020. Just where are the sellers putiing their cash. I cant see that going well for them.

No alternative but to sit back, cry a bit and wait it out.

[fish]

Was a bit of humorous sarcasm, Waltzing seems to be Beagles sidekick (Or is that Parrot) and follows him around like a bad smell.

You never learn

[bottomfeeder]

Well, I dont know about anyone else, but I am buying, with every spare dollar I have. Divvie comes out in a few days, lucky I didnt sign up for DRP.

Ill be on the board soon

[YoungBull]

I am too - I have genuine concerns about the impact of rising living costs/inflation, and how that will translate to staff cost increases. I am less concerned around the receding property market. I think, over the long term (my holding period), staff costs will flatten as we transition through economic cycles, the tailwinds of the industry will push through and OCA's brilliant management will continue to work hard. The significant discount to NTA provides a bit of security for me (perhaps not others, who believe it is justified).

[bull....]

some people talk like dividends are guaranteed. there not
at there last results there issues around there capital structure , oca would be best to cut there div in light of this. might be even more so in light of rising rates

[bottomfeeder]

some people talk like dividends are guaranteed. there not
at there last results there issues around there capital structure , oca would be best to cut there div in light of this. might be even more so in light of rising rates

I dont need the dividends. Berkshire never paid dividends (not so sure about these days). In fact no doubt they may decrease dividends in the future, so will most NZX companies. Hate to mention the old guy (Buffet) again but in high inflation cash IS trash. He said in periods of high inflation get into equities that you think will have the most benefit. Stay away from cash. Its on You Tube for a few months now.

Lastly when everyone tightens the purse strings in the coming recession, the elderly will spend on retirement villages like there is no tomorrow. Because for them there is no tomorrow. Asset values are the only thing that will keep pace with inflation. Ive been around long enough to see it happen before.

[bull....]

I dont need the dividends. Berkshire never paid dividends (not so sure about these days). In fact no doubt they may decrease dividends in the future, so will most NZX companies. Hate to mention the old guy (Buffet) again but in high inflation cash IS trash. He said in periods of high inflation get into equities that you think will have the most benefit. Stay away from cash. Its on You Tube for a few months now.

Lastly when everyone tightens the purse strings in the coming recession, the elderly will spend on retirement villages like there is no tomorrow. Because for them there is no tomorrow. Asset values are the only thing that will keep pace with inflation. Ive been around long enough to see it happen before.

i find sitting on cash now just fine. means i can buy more of the stocks i want at some stage.
your relying on your asset going up which may or may not happen

[bottomfeeder]

What am I doing, Doom Gloom, SP will be 50 cents soon. My last 88 cent order has only been partially filled. Everyone sell, sell, its going down, get out while you can.

[couta1]

You never learn If the shoe fits wear it. By the way I still remember some of your behaviour on the Coronavirus thread, your not really the person to be pointing any fingers.

[YoungBull]

i find sitting on cash now just fine. means i can buy more of the stocks i want at some stage.
your relying on your asset going up which may or may not happen

That depends - for a growth stock that doesn't intend to pay a dividend, I agree it is speculation. A company that temporarily pauses a dividend, in order to invest that cash into capital projects, and then later resumes the dividend with the increased income is a different story. The important part is whether you consider the dividend pause to be a temporary measure.

[bottomfeeder]

That depends - for a growth stock that doesn't intend to pay a dividend, I agree it is speculation. A company that temporarily pauses a dividend, in order to invest that cash into capital projects, and then later resumes the dividend with the increased income is a different story. The important part is whether you consider the dividend pause to be a temporary measure.

Tick tick, tick. My thoughts exactly.

[Baa_Baa]

some people talk like dividends are guaranteed. there not
at there last results there issues around there capital structure , oca would be best to cut there div in light of this. might be even more so in light of rising rates

Not a concern for next 6 months, current Div pays out 21st June next week. Not that you'd care being a trader.

[bull....]

Not a concern for next 6 months, current Div pays out 21st June next week. Not that you'd care being a trader.

actually im both thats the joy . i still own michael hill which ive owned since 1995 lol although its a small holding now a days

[winner69]

Could be said we will never see 1$ again:t_up:

I'm glad you didn't say 'We'll never see 90 cents again'

[Rawz]

OCA typically trades 40 cents below what insiders most recently bought at.

Previously
Buy at $1.40. Straight away head to $1

Now
Buy at $1. Heading to $0.60 no way cannot be true

[couta1]

I'm glad you didn't say 'We'll never see 90 cents again' Fast forward a few yrs from now and talking about 90c or $1 will only seen as the bargin of the century kinda stuff but I'm sure you already know that.

[Baa_Baa]

Fast forward a few yrs from now and talking about 90c or $1 will only seen as the bargin of the century kinda stuff but I'm sure you already know that.

That is just not knowable (https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_d98096af3d296c5f38f3943a171ba730.png). One might have thought that in 2018, 2019, 2020 etc and have been utterly wrong ... no one knew about Covid, inflation, housing market, recession and so on. The future is just not knowable.

[couta1]

That is just not knowable (https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_d98096af3d296c5f38f3943a171ba730.png). One might have thought that in 2018, 2019, 2020 etc and have been utterly wrong ... no one knew about Covid, inflation, housing market, recession and so on. The future is just not knowable. Cycles come and go just like weather patterns but the need side of this sort of business is only going to increase over the next decade, I showed a very similar chart to my wife last night and she simply said " I won't be selling any of my OCA shares" I guess she has the same outlook as Greg T and Liz Coutts and who am I to argue with her. She often says the market is unknowable yet her inner conviction and massive experience in the sector helps her have a vision that can't be stolen.

[Habits]

Cycles come and go just like weather patterns but the need side of this sort of business is only going to increase over the next decade, I showed a very similar chart to my wife last night and she simply said " I won't be selling any of my OCA shares" I guess she has the same outlook as Greg T and Liz Coutts and who am I to argue with her. She often says the market is unknowable yet her inner conviction and massive experience in the sector helps her have a vision that can't be stolen.

Hi Mate just wondering when you bought into OCA, good on you for believing in the company long term. When I sold out it turned out to be near the peak, I am just not sure if I want to buy back into a company with a cloud over its business plan.

[850man]

Fast forward a few yrs from now and talking about 90c or $1 will only seen as the bargin of the century kinda stuff but I'm sure you already know that.
Not that I'm superstitious but claims like that usually jinx the SP into a collapse :eek2:

[couta1]

Hi Mate just wondering when you bought into OCA, good on you for believing in the company long term. When I sold out it turned out to be near the peak, I am just not sure if I want to buy back into a company with a cloud over its business plan. My first buy was Dec 2017 at $1 ( Dont laugh) but my latest good sized holding started last year at a higher price, good on you for getting that top, its going to take some time to get back to that level again. My wife has an avg price of about 85c as she never touches her holding except to add a few here and there.

[Poolboy]

I'm a 76 cents boy, but I've bought a few since, umm. I'm not laughing today.

I'm fractionally up, but not by much.

[Habits]

My first buy was Dec 2017 at $1 ( Dont laugh) but my latest good sized holding started last year at a higher price, good on you for getting that top, its going to take some time to get back to that level again. My wife has an avg price of about 85c as she never touches her holding except to add a few here and there.

If a home does not increase in value it is ok with me as equity can still be created by paying off the mortgage(s). That gives security in retirement. Though no capital gain is still seen as a no-no by many ppl. However retirement companies especially OCA are reliant on housing gains and of course there arent any right now and that probably wont change within the next year. Further some retirees are weighing up the decision to move to a village if it means selling their house on a falling market but still paying full whack for a unit. (I like my 6 acre lot too much and hope i never have to make the choice) So where will next years OCA profit come from

[clearasmud]

Fast forward a few yrs from now and talking about 90c or $1 will only seen as the bargin of the century kinda stuff but I'm sure you already know that.
When it got to 89c today, I started thinking about when it went to 40c 2 years ago.

[jagger]

Further some retirees are weighing up the decision to move to a village if it means selling their house on a falling market but still paying full whack for a unit.

On the subject of not expecting capital gains and retirees; I have very little sympathy for retirees in this situation.

1) The target demographic (i.e. long-term home-owning retirees) have had 20 years of obscene real estate capital gains, far beyond anything they could have contemplated in their wildest dreams (let alone earned in paid employment during their lifetime in most cases)
2) In the vast majority of cases they will be looking for a unit priced at such a level that there is a significant buffer (i.e. >20%) between what they will pay (even at "full whack") and what they will cash out of their home. So most will be cashing out 6 figure amounts that they never realistically would/could have expected in their retirement plan.

This is a decision that for many can only be delayed for so long until health & life circumstances catch up with them.
If they are delaying because the market has turned for the only time in 20 years (very minorly so far compared to historical gains) then that's just greed as far as I'm concerned.
There will ultimately be a come-to-jesus moment when the reality of their circumstances can no longer be ignored - and that's just pent up demand that will benefit the sector.

[winner69]

On the subject of not expecting capital gains and retirees; I have very little sympathy for retirees in this situation.

1) The target demographic (i.e. long-term home-owning retirees) have had 20 years of obscene real estate capital gains, far beyond anything they could have contemplated in their wildest dreams (let alone earned in paid employment during their lifetime in most cases)
2) In the vast majority of cases they will be looking for a unit priced at such a level that there is a significant buffer (i.e. >20%) between what they will pay (even at "full whack") and what they will cash out of their home. So most will be cashing out 6 figure amounts that they never realistically would/could have expected in their retirement plan.

This is a decision that for many can only be delayed for so long until health & life circumstances catch up with them.
If they are delaying because the market has turned for the only time in 20 years (very minorly so far compared to historical gains) then that's just greed as far as I'm concerned.
There will ultimately be a come-to-jesus moment when the reality of their circumstances can no longer be ignored - and that's just pent up demand that will benefit the sector.

Jeez jagger you are hard man being so critical of oldies….though I’ll my apologies if I misunderstood your real messages because of my biases

An Irish economic commentator had a term for this generation ….the Jagger Generation …..accidental millionaires and all that stuff.

Good term that Jagger Generation eh …don’t think named after you lol


Worth a read

http://davidmcwilliams.ie/the-generation-game/

[jagger]

Jeez jagger you are hard man being so critical of oldies….though I’ll my apologies if I misunderstood your real messages because of my biases

An Irish economic commentator had a term for this generation ….the Jagger Generation …..accidental millionaires and all that stuff.

Good term that Jagger Generation eh …don’t think named after you lol


Worth a read

http://davidmcwilliams.ie/the-generation-game/

Heh, not critical, it's the facts of the situation.
The current generation of retirees are the wealthiest generation in human history, surpassing all those before and after.

[Rawz]

Boomers eh. Built an economy around housing. Now it’s going bust.

Jagger we must fix it. Build an economy around productive assets.

Let’s do this

[jagger]

Boomers eh. Built an economy around housing. Now it’s going bust.

Jagger we must fix it. Build an economy around productive assets.

Let’s do this

Yup 100%, I won't be sad to see that.

[Sideshow Bob]

Still getting cheaper by the day.....91c.

Not so good for the DRP shares getting tomorrow.....;)

[bottomfeeder]

I see inflation in Turkey or Turkiye as it is now known, is73%. While we are not at those dizzy heights, yet, it serves to illustrate that house prices just can't continue to fall. It will just cost so much more to build as inflation bites that the trickle down effect on second hand stock will mean that they must increase in value. Granted it may take a little while for the values to start increasing again, but as wages increase the race will be on. Retirement village operators are in the best situation to benefit from this. They have a captive market, usually with a lot of savings and mortgage free, with no alternatives to Care or Village life. So we have rising prices with income earning assets.

The SP, will never be much cheaper. How's that for upramping.

[SailorRob]

I see inflation in Turkey or Turkiye as it is now known, is73%. While we are not at those dizzy heights, yet, it serves to illustrate that house prices just can't continue to fall. It will just cost so much more to build as inflation bites that the trickle down effect on second hand stock will mean that they must increase in value. Granted it may take a little while for the values to start increasing again, but as wages increase the race will be on. Retirement village operators are in the best situation to benefit from this. They have a captive market, usually with a lot of savings and mortgage free, with no alternatives to Care or Village life. So we have rising prices with income earning assets.

The SP, will never be much cheaper. How's that for upramping.

Very good points. However the real value destruction could still be huge. Nominal value doesn't matter after all.

The real question is will NZ residential property market value to our GDP normalise to average OECD levels rather than be a massive anomaly.

[clearasmud]

Once this building boom is over the cost of building will drop substantially.

[RTM]

Very good points. However the real value destruction could still be huge. Nominal value doesn't matter after all.

The real question is will NZ residential property market value to our GDP normalise to average OECD levels rather than be a massive anomaly.

And then you have to ask yourself…why do we have the anomaly ? And if the answer is that it mostly reflects un-taxed capital gains…then that will have to change. Wonder which gov’ment be brave enough to do this ? Especially on three year election cycle ? Maybe it’s something that happens on the third term.

[SailorRob]

Yes but don't we have a full capital gains tax if the intention on purchasing is to make a capital gain? Which it's impossible to argue that it isn't, so maybe just not policed.

Residential property in whangarei sells at 35 x revenue. 9 times the price of Google and 16 times the price of Berkshire. Which are the better businesses and what are the margin structures?

[jagger]

I see inflation in Turkey or Turkiye as it is now known, is73%. While we are not at those dizzy heights, yet, it serves to illustrate that house prices just can't continue to fall. It will just cost so much more to build as inflation bites that the trickle down effect on second hand stock will mean that they must increase in value. Granted it may take a little while for the values to start increasing again, but as wages increase the race will be on. Retirement village operators are in the best situation to benefit from this. They have a captive market, usually with a lot of savings and mortgage free, with no alternatives to Care or Village life. So we have rising prices with income earning assets.

The SP, will never be much cheaper. How's that for upramping.

The 'value' of a house is closely linked to how much you can leverage up the young FHB suckers into the market to create liquidity throughout the entire chain.

Sure there might be a shortage but at high inflation the cost of money (and therefore credit impulse) has such a detrimental impact on 'value'.

We've gone from short term (1-2yr) rates of ~2% to ~6%, like com'on something has to give.

[SailorRob]

The 'value' of a house is closely linked to how much you can leverage up the young FHB suckers into the market to create liquidity throughout the entire chain.

Sure there might be a shortage but at high inflation the cost of money (and therefore credit impulse) has such a detrimental impact on 'value'.

We've gone from short term (1-2yr) rates of ~2% to ~6%, like com'on something has to give.

Correct. Entirely a function of how much a hairdresser and mechanic couple can borrow. Lend them 2 million and prices will be 2 million. Stop lending to them and adjustment will occur.

Offer credit in bulk to an entire suburb of any NZ city and then try go shopping there the next day. Everything will be cleaned out.

[Habits]

The 'value' of a house is closely linked to how much you can leverage up the young FHB

Also closely linked to the cost of a new home. Which is linked to labour rates, construction material costs, council charges and council rules. Councils restrict supply with zoning rules, govt requires higher spec homes and adds new laws almost daily.

We cant seem to get our sh*t together to organise the system. Apart from gib debacle there was a shortage of timber framing earlier. Not to mention the homes built and the streets and sections created for a new suburb that cant get water on so it comes to a halt. All the big brains who were interviewed could not give a clear answer or propose a solution to the families stuck in limbo.

[jagger]

Also closely linked to the cost of a new home. Which is linked to labour rates, construction material costs, council charges and council rules. Councils restrict supply with zoning rules, govt requires higher spec homes and adds new laws almost daily.

We cant seem to get our sh*t together to organise the system. Apart from gib debacle there was a shortage of timber framing earlier. Not to mention the homes built and the streets and sections created for a new suburb that cant get water on so it comes to a halt. All the big brains who were interviewed could not give a clear answer or propose a solution to the families stuck in limbo.

Doesn't matter what the cost of a new home is; if there is no credit availability then no one will be buying.

People can set their asking prices at $$[cost + margin] million dollars but if won't matter if people can't borrow.

[Habits]

Doesn't matter what the cost of a new home is; if there is no credit availability then no one will be buying.

People can set their asking prices at $$[cost + margin] million dollars but if won't matter if people can't borrow.

So in terms of OCA, retirees wont buy in to villages as they are priced at 2022 dollars of current construction cost. The retirees will not want to sell their existing private homes for sqaut (25 to 80 percent under market). The system crashes until the credit crunch is over and loans start to flow, secondhand home buyers decide to buy

[jagger]

So in terms of OCA, retirees wont buy in to villages as they are priced at 2022 dollars of current construction cost. The retirees will not want to sell their existing private homes for sqaut (25 to 80 percent under market). The system crashes until the credit crunch is over and loans start to flow, secondhand home buyers decide to buy

Well yeah exactly, that's kinda the entire reason share prices in the sector have capitulated.
Operators may well have to take a haircut on their development margin in the short term - they'll still be getting all the trail income from DMF, not to mention resale gains if/when the market recovers.
The focus on development margin is very short-sighted in my opinion.


retirees will not want to sell their existing private homes for sqaut (25 to 80 percent under market)

Retirees may need to come to terms with the "market" being less than what it was in 2021 (i.e. the era of rocket fueled central bank stimulus).
The "market" is not by definition the high watermark in prices, it's today's equilibrium.

[Habits]

Well yeah exactly, that's kinda the entire reason share prices in the sector have capitulated.
Operators may well have to take a haircut on their development margin in the short term - they'll still be getting all the trail income from DMF, not to mention resale gains if/when the market recovers.
The focus on development margin is very short-sighted in my opinion.



Retirees may need to come to terms with the "market" being less than what it was in 2021 (i.e. the era of rocket fueled central bank stimulus).
The "market" is not by definition the high watermark in prices, it's today's equilibrium.

Well articulated Jagger, I still do not agree with your POV.

[bottomfeeder]

So in terms of OCA, retirees wont buy in to villages as they are priced at 2022 dollars of current construction cost. The retirees will not want to sell their existing private homes for sqaut (25 to 80 percent under market). The system crashes until the credit crunch is over and loans start to flow, secondhand home buyers decide to buy

25 to 80 % ? Doubt we are going to go down to 25%. If that becomes the case, banks would go bust, and it would be the end of the financial system as we know it.

[Snow Leopard]

I glanced at the AGM slides and speeches on Thursday evening and I am kind of hoping that the upbeat commentary from the CEO & Chair will, this year on beyond, lead to a definite improvement in the EPS of the company.

Disc: Hope that the site will stay up & running this time.

[percy]

I glanced at the AGM slides and speeches on Thursday evening and I am kind of hoping that the upbeat commentary from the CEO & Chair will, this year on beyond, lead to a definite improvement in the EPS of the company.

Disc: Hope that the site will stay up & running this time.

I thought the speeches and presentation confirmed their long term strategy is on track.


Yes pleasing seeing this site back up and runing,but not so good is seeing Fiordland Moose banned.
Crikey he is about the most polite poster on the site.

[couta1]

I thought the speeches and presentation confirmed their long term strategy is on track.


Yes pleasing seeing this site back up and runing,but not so good is seeing Fiordland Moose banned.
Crikey he is about the most polite poster on the site. Yes a very valuable/level headed poster who also calls out the wrongs of some when he sees its needed.

[percy]

Yes a very valuable/level headed poster who also calls out the wrongs of some when he sees its needed.

He is a breath of fresh air.

[Bobdn]

Yes, a polite and friendly poster. Do we know why?

[percy]

Yes, a polite and friendly poster. Do we know why?

No.
But it certainly strengthens the other site having great posters such as him.
ShareTrader is the big loser.Other site the winner.

[Baa_Baa]

I thought the speeches and presentation confirmed their long term strategy is on track.


Yes pleasing seeing this site back up and runing,but not so good is seeing Fiordland Moose banned.
Crikey he is about the most polite poster on the site.

Not just banned, gone completely. Who knows why, such a nice informed member, can't imagine what would have happened to result in this.

I agree about the speeches and presentations, and the report. Focus on reducing growth in costs, moving to green fields development, apartments and units, stabilising care ratios, new acquisitions, divesting non-aligned property, good sales volumes, good margins. I reckon FY22 really was the inflection point - even with Covid (no deaths from Covid, pretty amazing a testament to their focus on residents care). One off costs gone, strong balance sheet, sensible shift in strategy, all makes sense to me. Happy holder and the divi is in the bank. Nice.

Some people only focus on the historical numbers, it's pretty much like looking at a SP chart, the rear view mirror. The future is not reported in the results numbers or the chart. The value of the chart is that it tells us when is a good time to buy, or sell if you're trader. The value of the financial report is only in telling us the history, which has little or no insights into the future. It's a shame that the truely deeply researched members have left the room, drowned out by incessant non-holding long winded repetitive whining hyperbolic cross-promotion posts for another RV.

[couta1]

Not just banned, gone completely. Who knows why, such a nice informed member, can't imagine what would have happened to result in this.

I agree about the speeches and presentations, and the report. Focus on reducing growth in costs, moving to green fields development, apartments and units, stabilising care ratios, new acquisitions, divesting non-aligned property, good sales volumes, good margins. I reckon FY22 really was the inflection point - even with Covid (no deaths from Covid, pretty amazing a testament to their focus on residents care). One off costs gone, strong balance sheet, sensible shift in strategy, all makes sense to me. Happy holder and the divi is in the bank. Nice.

Some people only focus on the historical numbers, it's pretty much like looking at a SP chart, the rear view mirror. The future is not reported in the results numbers or the chart. The value of the chart is that it tells us when is a good time to buy, or sell if you're trader. The value of the financial report is only in telling us the history, which has little or no insights into the future. It's a shame that the truely deeply researched members have left the room, drowned out by incessant non-holding long winded repetitive whining hyperbolic cross-promotion posts for another RV. Your last sentence is so good I want to frame it.

[Old mate]

The moose got banned for offering money to fix site. Lounge lizard banned for critizing the lack of communication when site down.

[RupertBear]

I thought the speeches and presentation confirmed their long term strategy is on track.


Yes pleasing seeing this site back up and runing,but not so good is seeing Fiordland Moose banned.
Crikey he is about the most polite poster on the site.

WOW! NO WAY! :scared: That is a terrible loss, he was an extremely valuable poster and the place will be worse off without him! Please bring him back!!

[Ferg]

I concur RupertBear. Knowing what I know about FM he was genuine in his offer to help given the site was clearly having performance issues. Performance issues is a statement of fact and shouldn't be taken personally. AFAIK there was nothing underhanded in his suggestion.

Another great loss is Davexl......I have no idea why he is gone but that is a rough one too.

BaaBaa / couta - we are still here. We will be back. Just taking time out for now, plus there is nothing of substance to discuss until the next result.

[Baa_Baa]

... We will be back. Just taking time out for now, plus there is nothing of substance to discuss until the next result.

Yes Ferg, the next results will be important to vindicate or defile the strategy, I think the former, albeit still early days for a long investment. I'm sure there will be plenty to discuss although hopefully not the repetitive cross promotion nonsense that has dominated here for some time, especially as it is informed only by financial history and not by any research on current or future prospects.

In any event I am very happy with the subtle shift in direction building off a solid base converting the existing properties and balancing the care vs suites vs villas and apartments. Good work done there imo, a healthy sustainable long term ratio has come about. Sensible strategy being executed, not some binary care vs other, as some would have us believe.

The brown fields had large overheads, mostly with unbookable property while the shift occurred, though that's almost done now. The recent acquisitions and further intent are a good insight to EPS accretive investments, and the pending divestments of non-aligned property to come will boost the cash balance or diminish the debt, however they decided to treat it.

I suppose on a discussion group with the word 'trader' in it, it is inevitable that equities are evaluated through differing lenses, those of short or medium term momentum traders who can withstand the trading fees and capital gains taxes (albeit those are never mentioned - have you noticed that?), versus others who really don't care much about cap value month to month, except to accumulate, and look to decent returns bi-annually and a bright future, long term.

[Ferg]

Yes Ferg, the next results will be important to vindicate or defile the strategy, I think the former, albeit still early days for a long investment...[snip]...and not by any research on current or future prospects.

Agree 100%. I am still working on / tweaking projections given my time constraints, while others are taking a back seat for now after doing their work and visiting various OCA sites. All I can say is that we are still positive for the future. Everything is on track as it should be. Nothing has changed, other than the obvious capitalisation rates which impact comprehensive income for now, but not underlying earnings.


In any event I am very happy with the subtle shift in direction building off a solid base converting the existing properties and balancing the care vs suites vs villas and apartments. Good work done there imo, a healthy sustainable long term ratio has come about.

Agreed. I know others joke about the "point of inflection"......but I think this was a poor choice of phrase by OCA. It's a bit like turning the QEII, it will get there eventually but cannot turn on a dime


The brown fields had large overheads, mostly with unbookable property while the shift occurred, though that's almost done now. The recent acquisitions and further intent are a good insight to EPS accretive investments, and the pending divestments of non-aligned property to come will boost the cash balance or diminish the debt, however they decided to treat it

No debate from me and this shows you understand there is a financial cost/earning dislocation with brownfield developments. And if smaller, less profitable and / or sites with lower prospects are being sold, that will be good for cash and profitability. OCA even spell it out in historic presentations - it can take up to 8 years to achieve optimal earnings with some developments.


I suppose on a discussion group with the word 'trader' in it, it is inevitable that equities are evaluated through differing lenses, those of short or medium term momentum traders who can withstand the trading fees and capital gains taxes (albeit those are never mentioned - have you noticed that?), versus others who really don't care much about cap value month to month, except to accumulate, and look to decent returns bi-annually and a bright future, long term.

Yes - when I was looking for an online forum I found this site but I'm not a trader. At times I forget this is a site set up for traders and I need to remind myself of that, hence I'm happy to bite my tongue and say nothing at times.

[winner69]

A very 'positive' ASM the other day

Easy day for Brent Pattison (and Liz) addressing a group of contented followers - akin to preaching to the converted.

And afterwards over a cuppa no doubt the contented followers all thanked the 'team' for doing a great job..... and some of the 'team' no doubt disclosed some snippets of inside info to make some even more excited bout the future

I note that 33% (77 million) of shares voted against increasing directors fees by $133,500 - suppose those shareholders are unhappy / disappointed / frustrated with the company performance over the last couple years

[Baa_Baa]

A very 'positive' ASM the other day

Easy day for Brent Pattison (and Liz) addressing a group of contented followers - akin to preaching to the converted.

And afterwards over a cuppa no doubt the contented followers all thanked the 'team' for doing a great job..... and some of the 'team' no doubt disclosed some snippets of inside info to make some even more excited bout the future

I note that 33% (77 million) of shares voted against increasing directors fees by $133,500 - suppose those shareholders are unhappy / disappointed / frustrated with the company performance over the last couple years

The two directors Rob Hamilton and Peter Dufaur, were both overwhelmingly supported with more than 99% of votes each. When have you ever seen unanimous shareholder support for increasing director fees.

The meeting might have been easy for Brent and Liz because the business is moving on very nicely and minor concerns were addressed in the recent strategy shift, early results from that, and no angry shareholders.

The after party isn't as good a time to get questions answered, when anytime you can call the CEO or CFO who are very obliging.

[YoungBull]

Hi - does anyone have a recording of the AGM, or are they typically unrecorded?

[justakiwi]

They have done in the past but I couldn't find one. Maybe send them an email via their investor centre and ask?


Hi - does anyone have a recording of the AGM, or are they typically unrecorded?

[forest]

Hi - does anyone have a recording of the AGM, or are they typically unrecorded?

No a recording but most information you can find in the presentation, CEO and Chair addresses.

[winner69]

Putting Brent's speech into a word cloud gives some insights into what is important in his view

Quite interesting

[Muse]

Not just banned, gone completely. Who knows why, such a nice informed member, can't imagine what would have happened to result in this.

I agree about the speeches and presentations, and the report. Focus on reducing growth in costs, moving to green fields development, apartments and units, stabilising care ratios, new acquisitions, divesting non-aligned property, good sales volumes, good margins. I reckon FY22 really was the inflection point - even with Covid (no deaths from Covid, pretty amazing a testament to their focus on residents care). One off costs gone, strong balance sheet, sensible shift in strategy, all makes sense to me. Happy holder and the divi is in the bank. Nice.

Some people only focus on the historical numbers, it's pretty much like looking at a SP chart, the rear view mirror. The future is not reported in the results numbers or the chart. The value of the chart is that it tells us when is a good time to buy, or sell if you're trader. The value of the financial report is only in telling us the history, which has little or no insights into the future. It's a shame that the truely deeply researched members have left the room, drowned out by incessant non-holding long winded repetitive whining hyperbolic cross-promotion posts for another RV.

Have no fear the moose is still here - few crossed wires is all
but seriously big thanks for those words - its well appreciated

got the shakes without my daily hit of ST'r - so many unique perspectives & knowledge amongst everyone here - & a great number of very good people too.

[Rawz]

Have no fear the moose is still here - few crossed wires is all
but seriously big thanks for those words - its well appreciated

got the shakes without my daily hit of ST'r - so many unique perspectives & knowledge amongst everyone here - & a great number of very good people too.

Good to have you back mate. You're on your way to STr legend poster status.. need more like you here with that next level understanding on the markets and how to value a company etc. Helps the noobs out like me lol

OCA- im still holding. For previous stated reason- Mav and Ferg post that they are happy and coming years are going to be great. Then a few weeks or a month later insiders start buying on market... Great sign.
And i dont know why but i am a sucker for a beaten up share... and OCA is well beaten

[Sideshow Bob]

D&O Ongoing Disclosure Notices (multiple) - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/394373)

Looks like almost all of the directors took part in the DRP, and most of senior management.

PS - great to have FM back from his temporary extinction.....

[davflaws]

And i dont know why but i am a sucker for a beaten up share... and OCA is well beaten
But not yet up - I'm still hoping!

[bottomfeeder]

Stuff just reported that it cost 21% more to build a residential home today than it did a year ago. So much for the scaremongering that house prices will collapse and so will OCA asset base. From here it is only onward and upward.

[Baa_Baa]

Stuff just reported that it cost 21% more to build a residential home today than it did a year ago. So much for the scaremongering that house prices will collapse and so will OCA asset base. From here it is only onward and upward.

Further to that, OCA recently reported that their locked in build pipeline is fixed price.

You'd be misinformed at the least to think any of the RV's are seriously exposed to cost of builds, or their suppliers who are their preferred supplier business partners enjoying continuous build work pipelines at good margins. These things are planned out years in advance with sufficient wiggle room on both sides to navigate materials price fluctuations.

But, you won't know about that reading financial reports. It pays to have the inside knowledge which is easily found, just by asking.

Your point appears to be that costs can be passed on to new ORA's. I think that underpins my point that it is largely irrelevant what it costs to build a property, when ultimately the RV and builder have flexibility on managing costs, but the RV has ultimate right of pricing the property for sale.

And the end product, the property, is sold (or de-facto leased really) at market, which takes into account all of those factors.

[Muse]

Further to that, OCA recently reported that their locked in build pipeline is fixed price.

You'd be misinformed at the least to think any of the RV's are seriously exposed to cost of builds, or their suppliers who are their preferred supplier business partners enjoying continuous build work pipelines at good margins. These things are planned out years in advance with sufficient wiggle room on both sides to navigate materials price fluctuations.

But, you won't know about that reading financial reports. It pays to have the inside knowledge which is easily found, just by asking.

Your point appears to be that costs can be passed on to new ORA's. I think that underpins my point that it is largely irrelevant what it costs to build a property, when ultimately the RV and builder have flexibility on managing costs, but the RV has ultimate right of pricing the property for sale.

And the end product, the property, is sold (or de-facto leased really) at market, which takes into account all of those factors.

Re bolded point: yes go baa baa

And in any event, I suspect we are at peak building price inflation right now. ANZ's property focus, released today, the graphs on page 2, summarise it too well for any other words

https://www.anz.co.nz/content/dam/anzconz/documents/economics-and-market-research/2022/ANZ-PropertyFocus-20220628.pdf

[bull....]

500 m loan based on green stuff.

[Snow Leopard]

500 m loan based on green stuff.

Good eh?

Buy some bull, help ensure the start of the uptrend, then buy more on TA principals.
:mellow:

[bull....]

Good eh?

Buy some bull, help ensure the start of the uptrend, then buy more on TA principals.
:mellow:

i buy one day
like when property stabilizes and when covid gone and when staff issues are over and when inflation is sorted and when .....

[bottomfeeder]

i buy one day
like when property stabilizes and when covid gone and when staff issues are over and when inflation is sorted and when .....
When all that happens the SP will be $1.80. It will be a bit late trying to buy in at less than a dollar.

[Rawz]

When all that happens the SP will be $1.80. It will be a bit late trying to buy in at less than a dollar.

Thats what i was thinking. Buy when there is blood on the streets

[Habits]

Thats what i was thinking. Buy when there is blood on the streets

I think the price being what it is I would love to buy in right now. Much better than the 1.60 it got to. When it was just over 1.00 the share was spruiked and some did buy. However as I keep watching I see the price going down and is firmly under a buck. There is no way it will be 1.80 anytime at least not for a long time.

[Rawz]

I think the price being what it is I would love to buy in right now. Much better than the 1.60 it got to. When it was just over 1.00 the share was spruiked and some did buy. However as I keep watching I see the price going down and is firmly under a buck. There is no way it will be 1.80 anytime at least not for a long time.

Isnt it funny how hard it is to buy when markets are tanking and so easy to buy when markets are rising.

[Snow Leopard]

I think the price being what it is I would love to buy in right now. Much better than the 1.60 it got to. When it was just over 1.00 the share was spruiked and some did buy. However as I keep watching I see the price going down and is firmly under a buck. There is no way it will be 1.80 anytime at least not for a long time.

If I had a dollar for everytime someone made a price prediction that proved false...
...I would have several dollars.

[Habits]

If I had a dollar for everytime someone made a price prediction that proved false...
...I would have several dollars.

Best to make a price prediction far enough into the future or without a specific date then you can never be wrong or at least everyone will have forgotten

[Brain]

Best to make a price prediction far enough into the future or without a specific date then you can never be wrong or at least everyone will have forgotten

People forget very quickly. Economists know that.

[mike2020]

Well someone should have a crack. If it went into the 40s again the trucks would clog the motorways all reversing their way up the road. At 2 bucks everyone would be buying because 3 or a takeover is eminent. I like it under a dollar as a long term buy.

[bottomfeeder]

Well someone should have a crack. If it went into the 40s again the trucks would clog the motorways all reversing their way up the road. At 2 bucks everyone would be buying because 3 or a takeover is eminent. I like it under a dollar as a long term buy.

It's human nature when an SP drops, and in the case of OCA quite a bit, that the thinking is that the SP is going to tank even more to some incredibly low price and then the fear sets in. I just can't see anyone in their right mind selling OCA at 40cents and even up to 80 cents. Anyone in that category are the big losers in the Stock Market game. After all we are talking about a well run, profitable company in a industry with pent up demand, paying dividends and inflation proof for the future.

[davflaws]

People forget very quickly. Economists know that.

So do politicians.

[850man]

OCA at 95c, a 28% discount to NTA seems well undervalued

[Baa_Baa]

It's human nature when an SP drops, and in the case of OCA quite a bit, that the thinking is that the SP is going to tank even more to some incredibly low price and then the fear sets in. I just can't see anyone in their right mind selling OCA at 40cents and even up to 80 cents. Anyone in that category are the big losers in the Stock Market game. After all we are talking about a well run, profitable company in a industry with pent up demand, paying dividends and inflation proof for the future.

Bear in mind that during and after the Covid crash, roughly 130 million shares changed hands at or under 80 cents, so there's plenty of stock out there that is still well into profit for those buyers at the time. If things get worse, they're not a big loser if they sell to retain those profits.

[jagger]

Bear in mind that during and after the Covid crash, roughly 130 million shares changed hands at or under 80 cents, so there's plenty of stock out there that is still well into profit for those buyers at the time. If things get worse, they're not a big loser if they sell to retain those profits.

Assuming all those that brought they still hold them and weren't just traders.

Which is a very very very heroic assumption.

[Balance]

Sobering reality check for the overheated property market - South Auckland house sold at open auction for 40% below CV. :eek2:

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/south-auckland-house-sells-for-740000-40-below-cv-41695

Only eight bidders were in the auction room at Ray White Manukau’s offices on Wednesday, mostly to watch. not to buy. Of the six properties on the slate that afternoon, one sold under the hammer, another sold during a pause in proceedings and a third had been picked up the night before after the vendor accepted a pre-auction offer.

The brisque and business-like atmosphere was a far cry from the excitement and desperation seen in the same room the year before, when crowds spilled out into the hallway and properties sold for big sums.

Ray White Manukau’s weekly auctions are viewed by many as a bellwether of the wider market mood in South Auckland. The sale prices achieved on Wednesday indicate the market has well and truly changed and the heat of last year has cooled.

A three-bedroom deceased estate in tidy, original condition on Antsy Place, Mangere sold under the hammer for $740,000, 40% less than its $1.225m ratings valuation, despite five bidders competing. A three-bedroom house in Belleek Close, Weymouth, sold for an undisclosed sum after bidding paused at $715,000. It had a CV of $900,000.

[Habits]

Sobering reality check for the overheated property market - South Auckland house sold at open auction for 40% below CV. :eek2:

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/south-auckland-house-sells-for-740000-40-below-cv-41695

Only eight bidders were in the auction room at Ray White Manukau’s offices on Wednesday, mostly to watch. not to buy. Of the six properties on the slate that afternoon, one sold under the hammer, another sold during a pause in proceedings and a third had been picked up the night before after the vendor accepted a pre-auction offer.

The brisque and business-like atmosphere was a far cry from the excitement and desperation seen in the same room the year before, when crowds spilled out into the hallway and properties sold for big sums.

Ray White Manukau’s weekly auctions are viewed by many as a bellwether of the wider market mood in South Auckland. The sale prices achieved on Wednesday indicate the market has well and truly changed and the heat of last year has cooled.

A three-bedroom deceased estate in tidy, original condition on Antsy Place, Mangere sold under the hammer for $740,000, 40% less than its $1.225m ratings valuation, despite five bidders competing. A three-bedroom house in Belleek Close, Weymouth, sold for an undisclosed sum after bidding paused at $715,000. It had a CV of $900,000.

Living in a street named Antsy would make anyone pleased to leave I would think. The common reposte is that CV does not represent market value, it is a generic figure for rating purposes but it does become a guide of sorts. I was looking at a property this week where the CV is nearly 3 mil, that is a joke it is probably actually worth 800k if that. If the vendor is stoopid they will be completely misguided by the CV in this case.

[Baa_Baa]

Assuming all those that brought they still hold them and weren't just traders.

Which is a very very very heroic assumption.

Hero or not, you might be surprised to know that the vast majority of shareholders aren't 'traders'. You're talking many many millions of share here, the top 10 registered shareholders for example, are depositories and custodians, they're big, very big and typically don't 'trade' market fluctuations unless their customers want in or out, but maybe if they're a broker and change their weighting to under or over perform or in between they will re-balance.

Anyway, ~130m shares were bought below 80 cents fairly recently, that's way more volume than retail traders which might indicate that the stock is fairly tightly held and the big players took up the opportunity of distressed market conditions to accumulate, and they're still well within the money. The same accumulations might be happening now.

OCA share traders are on the fringe of the total volume, but granted, this is or has been way more volatile in the past few years, so that fringe trading if they know what they're doing could be quite happy. Good luck to them, the long term investors just keep on accumulating more and more, especially when the market gifts them assets at low share prices, massive discounts to NTA, and increasing yields.

[Baa_Baa]

There's another thing in play here, bear with me.

If you have a few hundred or thousand shares, they're easily moved if you're a trader or investor, up or down. But if you have tens or hundreds of thousands or millions of shares it's not so easy.

I recall some guru investor once saying, sorry I can't remember who, but if you're a long term accumulator of equity assets and end up with a very large holding, relative to your portfolio, the day you sell you've doubled your trading fees which can be very substantial for large trades, and become liable for capital gains taxes at whatever rate you fall in to if you're selling at a profit. Then if you decide to buy back you've tripled your trading fees.

No one ever mentions this about short term or momentum trading, ever. They go on about yield this and dividend % that, but don't disclose or even acknowledge ... - initial buy fees + yield while held + capital profits - minus sell trading fees - minus tax on profit - minus fees to buy back in = what actual return?

That's a math thing no trader on here has ever in my experience, has ever disclosed.

[Muse]

There's another thing in play here, bear with me.

If you have a few hundred or thousand shares, they're easily moved if you're a trader or investor, up or down. But if you have tens or hundreds of thousands or millions of shares it's not so easy.

I recall some guru investor once saying, sorry I can't remember who, but if you're a long term accumulator of equity assets and end up with a very large holding, relative to your portfolio, the day you sell you've doubled your trading fees which can be very substantial for large trades, and become liable for capital gains taxes at whatever rate you fall in to if you're selling at a profit. Then if you decide to buy back you've tripled your trading fees.

No one ever mentions this about short term or momentum trading, ever. They go on about yield this and dividend % that, but don't disclose or even acknowledge ... - initial buy fees + yield while held + capital profits - minus sell trading fees - minus tax on profit - minus fees to buy back in = what actual return?

That's a math thing no trader on here has ever in my experience, has ever disclosed.

well said baa baa.

[allfromacell]

Sobering reality check for the overheated property market - South Auckland house sold at open auction for 40% below CV. :eek2:


I don't personally own any residential property but if my portfolio had only fallen by the amount the NZ residential market has so far this downturn I'd be a pretty happy camper.

NZ residential prices especially in the higher end of the market are actually holding up very well compared to property based equities and REITs, for now at least.

The property market will hopefully continue to fall and regain some sense of normality because what we've had over the past few years has been dangerous. Prices will likely be supported somewhat by high construction costs, especially the good quality stuff but land values do need to fall further for the sake of our society.

For the most up to date data (hours old) one can browse the interest.co.nz auction results page and find plenty of high quality homes selling for significantly above their CVs.

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/residential-auction-results

[nztx]

OCA at 95c, a 28% discount to NTA seems well undervalued


Approx 2 years it was roughly at same level before traversing upwards in mid Sep 2020

Perhaps some like me aren't yet convinced enough it's hit the bottom of the trough
for the current economic climate or that a worthwhile reversal will be imminent just yet .. :)

The sector mostly reports valuation gains as it's Surplus - with in most cases trading
activities excluding revaluations etc being break even - at least last time I looked.

That's enough of a caution for me in looking for confirmation of upwards recognised
& sustained by the market first :)

[Baa_Baa]

Oceania has completed the acquisitions of Remuera Rise and Bream Bay Village (ref pg 9 & 10) (https://images.oceaniahealthcare.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/20093255/220519-FY2022-Results-Presentation-vFINAL.pdf).

[bottomfeeder]

There's another thing in play here, bear with me.

If you have a few hundred or thousand shares, they're easily moved if you're a trader or investor, up or down. But if you have tens or hundreds of thousands or millions of shares it's not so easy.

I recall some guru investor once saying, sorry I can't remember who, but if you're a long term accumulator of equity assets and end up with a very large holding, relative to your portfolio, the day you sell you've doubled your trading fees which can be very substantial for large trades, and become liable for capital gains taxes at whatever rate you fall in to if you're selling at a profit. Then if you decide to buy back you've tripled your trading fees.

No one ever mentions this about short term or momentum trading, ever. They go on about yield this and dividend % that, but don't disclose or even acknowledge ... - initial buy fees + yield while held + capital profits - minus sell trading fees - minus tax on profit - minus fees to buy back in = what actual return?

That's a math thing no trader on here has ever in my experience, has ever disclosed.

It all depends on the trading SP margin. That's why traders love volatility. The bigger and quicker the movements the more chance you will complete a successful trade. Traders do not necessarily trade all or large parcels of shares. Sometimes you have to whittle away at profits. After all no one knows what tomorrow will bring. I would only trade a full holding if there was a significant uplift in the SP. Brokerage is only a small cost in any case. Mind you I have modified my trading now. I am a long term holder of OCA and does not form a part of my trading stock, since 31 March. Now SKT is another kettle of fish. I don't trade ARV either since 31 March.

[jagger]

Either way, it's a huge assumption to believe that 1:1 that the majority of those who purchased (i.e. ultimate beneficial shareholders, not just a custodial account they sit under) below 80c are still holding and didn't take profit at some point on the way up to $1.60 (or at some point on the way down since).

Any given shareholder may have had multiple entry & exit points over that time period so who knows what the average cost is across the register.

[whome]

Sobering reality check for the overheated property market - South Auckland house sold at open auction for 40% below CV. :eek2:

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/south-auckland-house-sells-for-740000-40-below-cv-41695

Only eight bidders were in the auction room at Ray White Manukau’s offices on Wednesday, mostly to watch. not to buy. Of the six properties on the slate that afternoon, one sold under the hammer, another sold during a pause in proceedings and a third had been picked up the night before after the vendor accepted a pre-auction offer.

The brisque and business-like atmosphere was a far cry from the excitement and desperation seen in the same room the year before, when crowds spilled out into the hallway and properties sold for big sums.

Ray White Manukau’s weekly auctions are viewed by many as a bellwether of the wider market mood in South Auckland. The sale prices achieved on Wednesday indicate the market has well and truly changed and the heat of last year has cooled.

A three-bedroom deceased estate in tidy, original condition on Antsy Place, Mangere sold under the hammer for $740,000, 40% less than its $1.225m ratings valuation, despite five bidders competing. A three-bedroom house in Belleek Close, Weymouth, sold for an undisclosed sum after bidding paused at $715,000. It had a CV of $900,000.

Balance, your post is very true. In another life I enjoyed 6 years as an RE agent ’94 -2000. Used to monitor Manukau sales then as it represents a large x-section of housing across various sectors ie lower socioeconomic areas of Sth Auck, areas of rapid in-fill development like Papatoetoe, some new housing in the eastern parts and areas reflecting middle income rises. ’98 - 2000 became a time of stalled house prices in NZ with whole extended families moving to Oz as the mining boom and better job prospects had begun in Oz. (Jump to the present – does the govt really think nurses and their families are going to stick around being over-worked for bad pay). Another good indicator was the house price index figures used to closely mirror the net migration curve - until Labour began including foreign students in the net figures to make their own situation look more favourable - blah.

Anyhoo – my view on the housing market and its effect on RV share prices is that while house prices have dropped a bit lately, they have only fallen by a pittance compared to the huge rises in recent years. While house prices reflect the immediate supply and demand position, the real knock-on effect and the one that hits the RV unit sales market is that the number of settled house sales have virtually stalled completely. I believe we could have a long period of several years where house prices won’t crash but linger along as those homeowners who have considered the move to an RV unit delay selling as they have seen the dangled carrot of high house prices and hope they might return. (Not talking here about the 3 primary reasons for selling a house ie death, divorce and de bank). The net effect has been a virtual halt in RV unit sales as the target market for RV sales are people who can afford to wait a bit longer as uncertainty is no help when selling your largest asset.

When will the housing market improve? As a quick means of monitoring house price movements, just count the number of open home signs at intersections. Wouldn’t be an RE agent for quids right now – long hours of doing open homes and sales few and far between. 2001 – 2002 saw the housing market start to recover rapidly, and that will happen again. I shall continue to monitor house sale settlement numbers and the average time to sell as indicators of an imminent RV stock recovery that will also eventually recover as the tailwinds remain strong but I could be out for some time.

Discl. – Out of all RV stocks, preserving capital.

[winner69]

whome - Thanks for sharing your insights

[Aaron]

Another good indicator was the house price index figures used to closely mirror the net migration curve - until Labour began including foreign students in the net figures to make their own situation look more favourable - blah.
Wonder why immigration was never mentioned when we had a house price crisis?

Thanks for the insight whome, how do people on share trader track the sales of retirement village units? Numbers in the respective company annual reports or is there an index or something?

I have never really looked at retirement village operators but as they are currently falling out of favour maybe I should try and understand them a bit better

[850man]

IMHO house prices are being depressed because of no new immigrants, demand has fallen. Borders have been closed for too long either deliberately by the government or by the huge delays in processing applications by Immigration. NZ is not "open for business" by any means. Until we rejoin the rest of the world, things will not improve.

[Balance]

IMHO house prices are being depressed because of no new immigrants, demand has fallen. Borders have been closed for too long either deliberately by the government or by the huge delays in processing applications by Immigration. NZ is not "open for business" by any means. Until we rejoin the rest of the world, things will not improve.

There have been no new immigrants for most of 2020 and 2021 and house prices went nuts.

[850man]

There have been no new immigrants for most of 2020 and 2021 and house prices went nuts.
Fuelled by much cheaply available money which has well and truly gone now

[Baa_Baa]

Not only did Liz get 40,053 newly minted shares in the DRP, she's piled on another 50,000 on market (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/394774). Gotta like it when the insiders are buying, and Chairwoman no less.

[winner69]

Not only did Liz get 40,053 newly minted shares in the DRP, she's piled on another 50,000 on market (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/394774). Gotta like it when the insiders are buying, and Chairwoman no less.

Tough being the Chair -- you order everybody to take the shares instead of divie cash and then you have to step up to support the share price

May see more directors buying this week in an attempt to stop the rot

[Rawz]

Not only did Liz get 40,053 newly minted shares in the DRP, she's piled on another 50,000 on market (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/394774). Gotta like it when the insiders are buying, and Chairwoman no less.

That's pleasing to read

[Rawz]

Tough being the Chair -- you order everybody to take the shares instead of divie cash and then you have to step up to support the share price

May see more directors buying this week in an attempt to stop the rot

Or, it's a case of insiders understanding the path the company is on and can see sufficient value at today's prices. And if they put more money in today they believe they will outperform the market over the next few years?

Or, you think Liz is a fool for investing at todays prices

[justakiwi]

If you say so.


Tough being the Chair -- you order everybody to take the shares instead of divie cash and then you have to step up to support the share price

May see more directors buying this week in an attempt to stop the rot

[SailorRob]

It all depends on the trading SP margin. That's why traders love volatility. The bigger and quicker the movements the more chance you will complete a successful trade. Traders do not necessarily trade all or large parcels of shares. Sometimes you have to whittle away at profits. After all no one knows what tomorrow will bring. I would only trade a full holding if there was a significant uplift in the SP. Brokerage is only a small cost in any case. Mind you I have modified my trading now. I am a long term holder of OCA and does not form a part of my trading stock, since 31 March. Now SKT is another kettle of fish. I don't trade ARV either since 31 March.


The bigger and quicker the movements the more chance you will complete a successful trade?

Really?

What about the other person that by definition is required for you to make your 'successful' trade.

For every buyer there is a seller.

For every seller there is a buyer.

Surely with the bigger quicker movements each wont have more chance of success, so which one of the two will?

[Baa_Baa]

...Brokerage is only a small cost in any case.

There's my point right there, notwithstanding tax on profits on top of brokerage. Brokerage is only small for small trades, or negligible if trading on a low brokerage platform. For someone who has a large or very large holding, brokerage can be a significant minus eroding profits, buying in, swapping in an out and in again is not realistic, even if liquidity enabled it. Retail investors are disadvantaged by brokerage that the big players don't pay, including those who run their bots manipulating the SP.

Let's just say if you're moving a few hundred or thousand shares, sure brokerage on a platform like Sharsies isn't much of a problem unless you lose a trade or can't afford the tax on profits. Doing that with 10's or 100's of thousands of shares is a big hole in your overall gains which dividends and share price appreciation are hard pressed to cover, let alone be profitable.

Another way of looking at it is, say OCA are paying 4.35% dividend yield for doing nothing (which is pretty miserly as the market is changing to value, but best in sector), then in one year regardless of SP, there's 4.35% gains minus broking cost on your holding. Doing nothing, that dividend repeats annually with six monthly payouts, and the brokerage does not. 5 years or 10 years later, whatever the SP is doesn't matter much as your returns are the dividends. Hopefully the SP has increased as well, but even that doesn't matter unless you plan to sell them, at which time you pay the brokerage and the tax on profit.

Long term is long term. It's way easier imo to time accumulation of an equity asset when the market gifts it under NTA, than trade a return that is exposed to multiple brokerage fees and tax on profits. But fair enough, if it's chump change we're talking about, trading is a bit of fun, but if it's about moving a large or very large holding, well that's a different story altogether and probably counterintuitive as to why such a large holding was accumulated in the first place.

[Baa_Baa]

Tough being the Chair -- you order everybody to take the shares instead of divie cash and then you have to step up to support the share price

May see more directors buying this week in an attempt to stop the rot

Interesting to see how your narrative has moved as the bear market took over. Quite disappointing really, or cynical at best, like you're actually a momentum trader as well as some others but the market turned and you didn't act fast enough and been left holding the baby?

Anyway, you'd have to wonder why most of the board and some of the management choose to accumulate through the DRP at this time rather than freak out and sell their shares. You think it's because Liz "order everyone to". That's bit far fetched, even the newbies here can see your fear. Got caught holding and now slag the Chair, the board, the management?

Maybe the board and the management see a bright future, beyond the current market pessimism? Who's best placed to make that judgement, you, me, or the insiders? Wouldn't make much sense for them to accumulate shares if they thought it was a dog, would it. I'd guess they reckon the company is worth a lot more and one day the market will double or triple and their confidence in the business will be rewarded.

In the meantime they'll be paid a best in sector dividend and entitlement to more equity capital, on top of their income.

[Curly]

Interesting to see how your narrative has moved as the bear market took over. Quite disappointing really, or cynical at best, like you're actually a momentum trader as well as some others but the market turned and you didn't act fast enough and been left holding the baby?

Anyway, you'd have to wonder why most of the board and some of the management choose to accumulate through the DRP at this time rather than freak out and sell their shares. You think it's because Liz "order everyone to". That's bit far fetched, even the newbies here can see your fear. Got caught holding and now slag the Chair, the board, the management?

Maybe the board and the management see a bright future, beyond the current market pessimism? Who's best placed to make that judgement, you, me, or the insiders? Wouldn't make much sense for them to accumulate shares if they thought it was a dog, would it. I'd guess they reckon the company is worth a lot more and one day the market will double or triple and their confidence in the business will be rewarded.

In the meantime they'll be paid a best in sector dividend and entitlement to more equity capital, on top of their income.
Well said Baa Baa. Nice to read a reasoned post and get away from emotional vested game changer posts.

[bottomfeeder]

I knew someone was holding the price down, Jardens eh. Hope that has stopped, OCA now up a cent or two. Why would they be selling at a low. That's right, the way fund managers make money, buy high and sell low.

[Gerald]

I knew someone was holding the price down, Jardens eh. Hope that has stopped, OCA now up a cent or two. Why would they be selling at a low. That's right, the way fund managers make money, buy high and sell low.

Jarden isn't a fund manager? :confused:

[bottomfeeder]

Jarden isn't a fund manager? :confused:

My Bad, sorry Jarden, but who are you selling on behalf.

[Baa_Baa]

I knew someone was holding the price down, Jardens eh. Hope that has stopped, OCA now up a cent or two. Why would they be selling at a low. That's right, the way fund managers make money, buy high and sell low.

Fairly significant net sell down at about 19% of the total trading volume during the period of the notice. No guarantee the selling is over, only that they don't have to disclose it anymore. If you want to try and answer the "why would they be selling at a low"?, check whether they were a buyer/accumulator during the covid 2020 plunge and rebound when SP was a lot lower than now. Truth is, you'll never find the answer to 'why they're selling question' unless they've published a re-weighting in their portfolio's balancing or a downgrade/sell to their clients.

[winner69]

At least Harbour have increased their holding ...even took the DRIP

Most of Jarden's selling is related to DIMS (discretionary investment management services) - maybe a few rich clients they manage gave them the message 'we don't want any Oceania) .... but as baabaa says we'll never know why they decided to sell their clients shares .... and keep most of theirs

Probably a SSH in a week ago when whey again nudge over 5% anyway

[Muse]

Jarden dropped two large research reports on the RV and aged care industry in recent days.

Interesting that while SUM is their sector pick it is more from a catalyst and TA perspective, while according to their analysis OCA offers the highest prospective 1 year total returns (inc. divs).

OCA: OW, TP $1.20, 32.7% projected return
ARV: OW, TP $1.60, 18.8% projected return
SUM: OW, TP $11.50, 17.2% projected return
RYM: Neutral, TP $9.50, 10.8% projected return

[Blue Skies]

Jarden dropped two large research reports on the RV and aged care industry in recent days.

Interesting that while SUM is their sector pick it is more from a catalyst and TA perspective, while according to their analysis OCA offers the highest prospective 1 year total returns (inc. divs).

OCA: OW, TP $1.20, 32.7% projected return
ARV: OW, TP $1.60, 18.8% projected return
SUM: OW, TP $11.50, 17.2% projected return
RYM: Neutral, TP $9.50, 10.8% projected return


Could do with some good news! Thanks for this.

[Baa_Baa]

Could do with some good news! Thanks for this.

There are some who are unfortunately no longer here, we'll miss their insights, that have tended to go on an on about OCA's exposure to nursing/carer costs, based on a perception that the word 'care' in their portfolio of accomodation means a linear amount of care workers, ergo costs, for each 'unit' that has care services. That isn't the case at all.

At the old age and end of life high needs end of the spectrum is hospital care, it has the highest proportion of carers to residents. That proportion reduces as the spectrum of care reduces to resident (rest home) care, ILU care, apartments, villas care and so forth. There is not a linear relationship of carer cost to all dwellings that include 'care services' in their name.

The 'continuum of care' is a major selling point for OCA, where residents can buy into apartments and ILU's at one end of the spectrum can progress through to old age at the other end, with proportionate care available to them.

Many sites actually have no onsite continuum of care across the whole spectrum, they are just ILU's, villas and apartments. Here's a good place to learn more about the OCA portfolio, you'll see many have high quality accomodation with care services available, but are not continuum through to elder rest home, hospital or end of life care. Correspondingly, the ratio of carers and nurses, and costs, are lower than the words 'care services' might imply. https://www.villageguide.co.nz/operator/oceania

It's best imo not to generalise that carer expenses are some linear proportion to all 'units' that have care services in their name, or that all OCA facilities that say 'care' are in fact catering solely to care, as they are not. Moreover it is access to care as required that many facilities are offering, not guaranteed onsite high cost dedicated carers per population of residents.

These things are not and cannot be found in financial reports which focus only on numbers and history. If one DYODD, which some have done here to great lengths, they can be discovered elsewhere, usually hiding in plain sight. If you're looking in the right places.

OCA is still the highest dividend percentage payer of the sector which speaks to the sector, or the risk proportionment, all of which are frankly awful dividend payers considering their excess cash flows and profits. Care is nothing really, except a rounding error on the overall business. Any which way you look at it, care expenses really are just a cost of doing business, for all of them. The business is property.

The very safe margin all RV's apply in valuing their properties, and the infrequent revaluations (which determine NTA) means there is a very high degree of wiggle room across all of them. The market valuation is another thing altogether, which only matters if you care about capital market value (which means you want to sell higher than the mug you bought off).

Reflect imho on the tailwinds in the RV sector and the historical success of all the listed RV's and you'll see that opportunity presents itself only occasionally, to accumulate quality equity assets at depressed market prices. These are those times. It is upon us now.

Don't waste a good recession.

[Blue Skies]

Further confirmation of the sectors strong long term tailwinds & what may currently be a golden opportunity to top up at current levels.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/471285/retirement-and-aged-care-sector-struggles-to-meet-demand-report

[Bjauck]

Further confirmation of the sectors strong long term tailwinds & what may currently be a golden opportunity to top up at current levels.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/471285/retirement-and-aged-care-sector-struggles-to-meet-demand-report Contrary to the expectations of many, Covid illustrated the benefits of a retirement village with the safeguards they could put into place, and the value of a "village" (pooling of resources, neighbourliness.) So in the face of more younger kiwis moving abroad for economic reasons, future epidemics and climate change/ extreme weather the popularity of senior housing schemes may increase

[Joshuatree]

I hope to renenter at some point but just too much uncertainty ,volatility,walls of worry, inflation,prop downturns etc etc.Not trying to pick a bottom just a bit nearer to one, with less risk.

[bull....]

this sector is uninvestable now i reckon... why

the rapid increase in covid deaths now in the older age groups means retirement villages are going to lose a lot of there customers going forward as the new variants work there way thru village populace. ( vaccine not as good against new variants )

30 a day probably higher as new govt rule on reporting will hide the real rate equates to 10000 odd in a yr a lot of customer reduction.

it is no wonder the sector is not participating in rally.

[ratkin]

this sector is uninvestable now i reckon... why

the rapid increase in covid deaths now in the older age groups means retirement villages are going to lose a lot of there customers going forward as the new variants work there way thru village populace. ( vaccine not as good against new variants )

30 a day probably higher as new govt rule on reporting will hide the real rate equates to 10000 odd in a yr a lot of customer reduction.

it is no wonder the sector is not participating in rally.

I thought deaths were a good thing for sector, plenty on the waiting lists ready to jump into the better homes.

[justakiwi]

Do any of you ever stop to think about the potential impact of posting your (presumably) sarcastic comments here? Does it ever occur to your capitalist, money focused pea brains that there could be forum members here who have lost someone to covid, or who may currently have a loved one or dear friend who is very unwell with covid?

Nah ... didn't think so.

EDIT: Thank you for the negative rep vote Gerald (whoever the hell you are), and for your suggestion that I contribute something of value, rather than "clogging up this thread." Do a search for my name in this thread, and you'll see that I have contributed quite a lot, as someone working in the sector. There is more to "contributing" than financial analysis. Those of us working in the sector have a far better handle on it than you ever will buddy. Have a wonderful evening.

[Rawz]

this sector is uninvestable now i reckon... why

the rapid increase in covid deaths now in the older age groups means retirement villages are going to lose a lot of there customers going forward as the new variants work there way thru village populace. ( vaccine not as good against new variants )

30 a day probably higher as new govt rule on reporting will hide the real rate equates to 10000 odd in a yr a lot of customer reduction.

it is no wonder the sector is not participating in rally.

Uninvestable???? Not sure about that..

Every now and then we get a bad flu season despite the flu vaccine. You wouldnt go around saying the RV sector is uninvestable. Yet more of the elderly die in that year.

Do the RV's not have strict covid policy in place as before? You are assuming its going to flood in and knock everyone out

Anyways, investing in OCA or others, covid isnt a major factor when thinking about it. Property prices and long term trends much more important

[Habits]

Down to 91, I wonder if will retest recent low of 88. More than likely IMO. Whether that is fair value or below, who would know

[bull....]

I thought deaths were a good thing for sector, plenty on the waiting lists ready to jump into the better homes.

true good for re-sales initially but i guess if covid becomes widespread and numbers get bigger and slightly younger the pool of prospective purchasers may get affected as well.
the govt dont care anymore so its possible ?
and just to throw a + in i guess the lower number of residents might help with staffing problems

[percy]

No one or anything is going to stop the tsunami of retirees over the next few decades.
Govt can not cope,and never will.

[SailorRob]

Do any of you ever stop to think about the potential impact of posting your (presumably) sarcastic comments here? Does it ever occur to your capitalist, money focused pea brains that there could be forum members here who have lost someone to covid, or who may currently have a loved one or dear friend who is very unwell with covid?

Nah ... didn't think so.

EDIT: Thank you for the negative rep vote Gerald (whoever the hell you are), and for your suggestion that I contribute something of value, rather than "clogging up this thread." Do a search for my name in this thread, and you'll see that I have contributed quite a lot, as someone working in the sector. There is more to "contributing" than financial analysis. Those of us working in the sector have a far better handle on it than you ever will buddy. Have a wonderful evening.


While I understand the point of your post, if indeed these people are capitalist money focused pea brains, this is a very good thing.

Money is just a reflection of goods and services in the economy and thus you can substitute one for the other. Someone who is hell bent on making money is usually hell bent on creating goods and services which are desired by the people, and creating them in a way that is very efficient. So maximising the amount of wonderful goods and services which make our existence better with the least input of resources.

Billionaires are so because they have created an immense amount of goods and services and made peoples lives far better. Due the the amazing system of capitalism, most minimum wage workers in NZ have identical phones to a billionaire - as well as many other things that are no different to what a billionaire has, as they both have access to the best of what there is, obviously not with everything.

Imagine the forum members you speak of, if their loved ones only had access to medical technology, care and services created and provided by the state. We can see plenty of examples of this system across the world.

Believe me an aged care facility in a system that doesn't embrace money focused pea brained capitalism is not a place that you want to even imagine unless you like to think about folk rotting in their own waste.

[Rawz]

Good post Rob!

[Waltzing]

"Billionaires are so because they have created an immense amount of goods and services and made peoples lives far better."

right .....

arrhhh ... all the time? or generally .....

[Baa_Baa]

Imo don't knock Justakiwi, she's a good hearted soul who brings a unique and valuable perspective to our RV threads, while also being an investor in the company. I can understand her frustration completely with the trolls and flippant posters who seem to enjoy disparaging OCA albeit they have such a shallow understanding of RV care, or the company itself.

I don't make a distinction between a troll and a sarcastic off-the-cuff twit. Strangely the same trolls seem not to have much or anything to say on any other RV threads, such is their obsession with OCA. There can be only one reason for that, they like OCA's prospects but want the SP to be lower and to be confident good times will come there after, before they take a position. They're traders usually, or disgruntled investors caught holding who are trader in denial, focused on capital value rather than underlying and long term value.

Their transparency is blindingly obvious, transparent like a pane of glass anyone can see through. Attack the company all you want, and supportive posters, it falls on deaf ears, but leave the messenger alone. Many thousands of posts over many years and an anaemic reputation speaks volumes here.

[SailorRob]

"Billionaires are so because they have created an immense amount of goods and services and made peoples lives far better."

right .....

arrhhh ... all the time? or generally .....

With Billionairs almost all of the time. Millionaires generally but not even close to all the time.

[SailorRob]

There are some who are unfortunately no longer here, we'll miss their insights, that have tended to go on an on about OCA's exposure to nursing/carer costs, based on a perception that the word 'care' in their portfolio of accomodation means a linear amount of care workers, ergo costs, for each 'unit' that has care services. That isn't the case at all.

At the old age and end of life high needs end of the spectrum is hospital care, it has the highest proportion of carers to residents. That proportion reduces as the spectrum of care reduces to resident (rest home) care, ILU care, apartments, villas care and so forth. There is not a linear relationship of carer cost to all dwellings that include 'care services' in their name.

The 'continuum of care' is a major selling point for OCA, where residents can buy into apartments and ILU's at one end of the spectrum can progress through to old age at the other end, with proportionate care available to them.

Many sites actually have no onsite continuum of care across the whole spectrum, they are just ILU's, villas and apartments. Here's a good place to learn more about the OCA portfolio, you'll see many have high quality accomodation with care services available, but are not continuum through to elder rest home, hospital or end of life care. Correspondingly, the ratio of carers and nurses, and costs, are lower than the words 'care services' might imply. https://www.villageguide.co.nz/operator/oceania

It's best imo not to generalise that carer expenses are some linear proportion to all 'units' that have care services in their name, or that all OCA facilities that say 'care' are in fact catering solely to care, as they are not. Moreover it is access to care as required that many facilities are offering, not guaranteed onsite high cost dedicated carers per population of residents.

These things are not and cannot be found in financial reports which focus only on numbers and history. If one DYODD, which some have done here to great lengths, they can be discovered elsewhere, usually hiding in plain sight. If you're looking in the right places.

OCA is still the highest dividend percentage payer of the sector which speaks to the sector, or the risk proportionment, all of which are frankly awful dividend payers considering their excess cash flows and profits. Care is nothing really, except a rounding error on the overall business. Any which way you look at it, care expenses really are just a cost of doing business, for all of them. The business is property.

The very safe margin all RV's apply in valuing their properties, and the infrequent revaluations (which determine NTA) means there is a very high degree of wiggle room across all of them. The market valuation is another thing altogether, which only matters if you care about capital market value (which means you want to sell higher than the mug you bought off).

Reflect imho on the tailwinds in the RV sector and the historical success of all the listed RV's and you'll see that opportunity presents itself only occasionally, to accumulate quality equity assets at depressed market prices. These are those times. It is upon us now.

Don't waste a good recession.

Excellent post.

Would you be able to describe the OCA business model, just very basically. How they make money and intend to in future. Might sound like an odd request but you mentioned some interesting points regarding care being a rounding error and the actual business being property.

[Bjauck]

Do any of you ever stop to think about the potential impact of posting your (presumably) sarcastic comments here? Does it ever occur to your capitalist, money focused pea brains that there could be forum members here who have lost someone to covid, or who may currently have a loved one or dear friend who is very unwell with covid?

Nah ... didn't think so.

EDIT: Thank you for the negative rep vote Gerald (whoever the hell you are), and for your suggestion that I contribute something of value, rather than "clogging up this thread." Do a search for my name in this thread, and you'll see that I have contributed quite a lot, as someone working in the sector. There is more to "contributing" than financial analysis. Those of us working in the sector have a far better handle on it than you ever will buddy. Have a wonderful evening. My apologies if I added to anyone's grief and stress. I have had several extended family who were taken by Covid prior to the vaccines (they were under 65yo) & currently a family member is in hospital with covid cases all about. Covid is the black dog that ever stalks in the background.

However life does and must continue. Efficient investment does channel money to where it is needed. Efficient profitable investment provides tax revenue for medical and palliative care.

[Waltzing]

Off topic... B's verus M's...

with a lot of B's created in countries like Russia, the middles east and china has a statistical study been done on the topic of contributions of the B's? Would be a very interesting study to look at. But if the B's arnt all good fellows lets not show it to politicians....

wonder if the products and services have in the end destroyed the planet... oh well ... next time ...

[BlackPeter]

While I understand the point of your post, if indeed these people are capitalist money focused pea brains, this is a very good thing.

Money is just a reflection of goods and services in the economy and thus you can substitute one for the other. Someone who is hell bent on making money is usually hell bent on creating goods and services which are desired by the people, and creating them in a way that is very efficient. So maximising the amount of wonderful goods and services which make our existence better with the least input of resources.

Billionaires are so because they have created an immense amount of goods and services and made peoples lives far better. Due the the amazing system of capitalism, most minimum wage workers in NZ have identical phones to a billionaire - as well as many other things that are no different to what a billionaire has, as they both have access to the best of what there is, obviously not with everything.

Imagine the forum members you speak of, if their loved ones only had access to medical technology, care and services created and provided by the state. We can see plenty of examples of this system across the world.

Believe me an aged care facility in a system that doesn't embrace money focused pea brained capitalism is not a place that you want to even imagine unless you like to think about folk rotting in their own waste.

As ususal - there are too sides to any coin and two polar extremes to any spectrum.

Pure capitalism is as bad as pure (well, lets call it) communism.

If money does not count and the state is responsible to supply everything, then everybody will live on the same low level and inefficiencies will be high. And yes - I hear health care in North Korea is not particularly desirable.

However - if only money counts, you will have a system with huge inequalities. Some people might have amazing wealth and healthcare (whatever money can buy) but more and more will drop off the screen and have even worse healthcare then they would have e.g. in North Korea. Healthcare in the US is not particularly desirable for anybody who dropped through the social net - and there are more and more who do. Great care for few and don't care for many.

As usual - the best place is somewhere in the middle between these extremes. You need a money based system but still be able to allow for human feelings and empathy.

And yes - lets not forget that the stuff we are posting here is read by people in all sorts of life situations. A little bit of kindness and empathy is rarely wrong.

[SailorRob]

As ususal - there are too sides to any coin and two polar extremes to any spectrum.

Pure capitalism is as bad as pure (well, lets call it) communism.

If money does not count and the state is responsible to supply everything, then everybody will live on the same low level and inefficiencies will be high. And yes - I hear health care in North Korea is not particularly desirable.

However - if only money counts, you will have a system with huge inequalities. Some people might have amazing wealth and healthcare (whatever money can buy) but more and more will drop off the screen and have even worse healthcare then they would have e.g. in North Korea. Healthdcare in the US is not particularly desirable for anybody who dropped through the social net - and there are more and more who do. Great care for few and don't care for many.

As ususal - the best place is somewhere in the middle between these extremes. You need a money based system but still be able to allow for human feelings and empathy.

And yes - lets not forget that the stuff we are posting here is read by people in all sorts of life situations. A little bit of kindness and empathy is rarely wrong.

Great post. Agreed.

[SailorRob]

So from current prices back to the price where a lot of sophisticated investors and insiders put equity in very recently...

Over 3 years would be a compound 17% return including dividends (if they don't rise).

Over 4 years would still be 13%.

This is just back to the level where equity was injected.

[bull....]

No one or anything is going to stop the tsunami of retirees over the next few decades.
Govt can not cope,and never will.

A brave statement there considering no one knows how the covid will develop going forward with any certainty.

anyway as the govt seeems to not listen to experts anymore and death rates continue to climb the fact is at the moment it affects older predominately over 70s with a bad outcome.
if the death rate is left to continue ramping up it will reduce the pool of buyers for units , add the increasing supply of units coming on market and we could have a over supply situation in a yr or two if the senario played out.

this senario is relevant now because situation has changed due to govt changing its response to virus last mth or so

[winner69]

Hope we don't bring religion into the discussion - God does act in unexpected ways at time

Back to Oceania - share price should go up today

[RTM]

Replaced.....

[percy]

A brave statement there considering no one knows how the covid will develop going forward with any certainty.

anyway as the govt seeems to not listen to experts anymore and death rates continue to climb the fact is at the moment it affects older predominately over 70s with a bad outcome.
if the death rate is left to continue ramping up it will reduce the pool of buyers for units , add the increasing supply of units coming on market and we could have a over supply situation in a yr or two if the senario played out.

this senario is relevant now because situation has changed due to govt changing its response to virus last mth or so

Covid could increase the move to retirement villages.
A married couple managing well.
One partner's death will encourage the surviving partner to move into the safety/security/well being of a retirement village.

[RTM]

No one or anything is going to stop the tsunami of retirees over the next few decades.
Govt can not cope,and never will.


A brave statement there considering no one knows how the covid will develop going forward with any certainty.



Really can't see it as brave Bull, seems pretty factual to me.

[Beau]

Covid could increase the move to retirement villages.
A married couple managing well.
One partner's death will encourage the surviving partner to move into the safety/security/well being of a retirement village.
Don’t expect Bull to look at the positive side of things he’s only looking for negative when it comes to retirement villages at present.

[Rawz]

there will always be viruses, bad flu's, new variants. bull is clutching at straws with his most recent posts

[bull....]

The cost of building a new home is increasing at its fastest rate on record, due to persistent labour and material shortages
The annual growth rate also hit an all-time high of 7.7 percent, eclipsing the previous record set in the first three months of the year.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2022/07/new-home-building-costs-rising-at-record-annual-rate.html

does anyone know if they are raising there unit selling prices greater than 8% ? this yr

[allfromacell]

The cost of building a new home is increasing at its fastest rate on record, due to persistent labour and material shortages
The annual growth rate also hit an all-time high of 7.7 percent, eclipsing the previous record set in the first three months of the year.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2022/07/new-home-building-costs-rising-at-record-annual-rate.html

does anyone know if they are raising there unit selling prices greater than 8% ? this yr

They've only guided that sales, enquiries, margins and captial gains are all up on last year for this first 2 months of FY23 but not by how much.

Building enquiries are slowing down significantly but the retirement sector will keep building, this reported slowdown will help ease capacity issues. It's also important to remember OCA have locked in building contracts for a few more years and so far have not mentioned any issues with problems sourcing materials or contractors.

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/116840/builders-report-80-90-slump-new-home-inquiries-and-fear-another-200910-style-bust

[Muse]

The cost of building a new home is increasing at its fastest rate on record, due to persistent labour and material shortages
The annual growth rate also hit an all-time high of 7.7 percent, eclipsing the previous record set in the first three months of the year.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2022/07/new-home-building-costs-rising-at-record-annual-rate.html

does anyone know if they are raising there unit selling prices greater than 8% ? this yr

sure, but I'm feeling confident we have passed 'peak' building material inflation. With a drop of 70-80% home building inquiries, that can only flow through to housing consents and future home builds. A drop like that, particularly after new building material infrastructure has been put on place (new gib factory, new red stag timber mills), could very well lead to building product deflation, along with a surge of available builders. That has a lot of ramifications on its own for the country and other industry, but probably a welcome development for the RV industry, either real or perceived by the market.

[Habits]

The cost of building a new home is increasing at its fastest rate on record, due to persistent labour and material shortages
The annual growth rate also hit an all-time high of 7.7 percent, eclipsing the previous record set in the first three months of the year.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2022/07/new-home-building-costs-rising-at-record-annual-rate.html

does anyone know if they are raising there unit selling prices greater than 8% ? this yr

Just six weeks ago QV via RNZ were telling us the construction cost had gone up 21 percent over the year.


Average cost of building 3-bedroom home nearly 21% higher than a year ago - QV | RNZ News
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/468351/average-cost-of-building-3-bedroom-home-nearly-21-percent-higher-than-a-year-ago-qv

Can we start seeing a drop in the inflation rate. I noticed that fuel prices at the pump were down about 10 percent which will feed into Q3 cpi if it is sustained. Fingers crossed

[Maverick]

I was playing around with some numbers today which may be of interest to some here.
The point of the exercise is to see if there is correlation to the hugely growing village + corporate costs that then leads to a lagging increase in new build development profits. The idea is that as OCA increases its build rate so does its immediate front footing of the costs to do so but then they reap the downstream new sales profit ( and follow on then to DMF profit). They have increased their build rate from 200 to 300 over the last year.

Obviously the short 5 years OCA has been building is not enough data to draw from so I ran the same exercise with another company I track closely, SUM - we know historically it has been a highly successful model. SUM is very suitable to compare as they too have increased their build rate, have loads of data and are a very simple model to understand.

SUM lump their operating expenses into one amalgamous number whereas OCA breaks theirs into 3 sets.( care, village and corporate) To compare apples with apples as much as I can I have combined the OCA village and corporate costs but left out their care costs ( the care accounts are a very different beast needing to be treated completely separately) . Note that the SUM figures do include their care costs albeit much smaller- I couldn't be arsed stripping those out.

I don't think anything lifechanging can really be drawn from the comparisons but they are really interesting to me that they are so similarly big spenders as far as increasing costs YOY and how significantly covid messed with them both
Note that SUM report before OCA so SUM`s FY2020 should be compared to OCA`s FY2021.

To me the interesting conclusions that can be drawn are;
A.OCAs often derided “ rampant and out of control costs” are actually lesser than SUMs. ( I don't believe for 1 second that either company hasn't got costs fully under control - I say they are spending money to make money, and bigger the build rates and targeted acquisitions is the only fast way forward).
B. The 5 years that OCA has operated under appears to have been a very tumultuous and unlucky period given it has mostly been during covid. SUM has experienced the identical drop and rebound of data over exactly the same time frame. Prior to 2018 we can see on SUMs chart things are pretty smooth.
C. It appears the recovery and catchup of new sales profit is well under way for SUM but not so much so for OCA.

I put this slower recovery for OCA to the timing difference of being able to sell SUM villas quickly as you build whereas delivering apartment blocks is much slower and sales are held up until the entire tower is fully completed. Oca by my calcs has a very large , record number of completed apartments currently that are being sold down now and over the next 12-18 months This is one of the key drivers for a very large jump in this year's FY profit. I'm saying the recovery for OCA is slower than SUM by nature of unit types being delivered.

I see high corporate spending by both SUM and OCA is key to the future growing profit as demonstrated by the SUM graph. The high corporate spending now by both OCA and SUM will keep the underlying profits growing accordingly in the years to come. , that leads onto DMF increases , resales and so on.

Now lets see if I can post the graphs ok….im usually sh*t at stuff like this.

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/8TjlYT1gEF1H6CW2zbEDrEkvyxQCv9V1wehS7FjHgbc7nfsvVm 6nsuV5FshJxwz4Y7xsE6U05pegH-Pw4EpMlytfWIIu6bUPBUc45QAPx9TMGT5Sm5eEdVvTic4Buj9K g2LulyGmUGbN6WDf7CH-SWo

https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/yTlbHRko9kJIhU6OcXKTAoliOZvmctRnv52LzURQ3CAyZjsWLy HzlHIo6HxpQX1hXgH6L3bKhyonjqKZ1cW8YZqLRcfYD4FjkhcK lSvHW7uY_L4pX2_xA7cI9q53i6gfW2446oT-aXUoUmMSyH9kLa8

[bull....]

They've only guided that sales, enquiries, margins and captial gains are all up on last year for this first 2 months of FY23 but not by how much.

Building enquiries are slowing down significantly but the retirement sector will keep building, this reported slowdown will help ease capacity issues. It's also important to remember OCA have locked in building contracts for a few more years and so far have not mentioned any issues with problems sourcing materials or contractors.

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/116840/builders-report-80-90-slump-new-home-inquiries-and-fear-another-200910-style-bust

that would be an incredible feat in this environment if oca has locked in fixed price build contracts for the next few years. wonder if the builder will be around to honour it ?

[justakiwi]

Excellent post as always Mav. Thank you! :)


I was playing around with some numbers today which may be of interest to some here.
The point of the exercise is to see if there is correlation to the hugely growing village + corporate costs that then leads to a lagging increase in new build development profits. The idea is that as OCA increases its build rate so does its immediate front footing of the costs to do so but then they reap the downstream new sales profit ( and follow on then to DMF profit). They have increased their build rate from 200 to 300 over the last year.... <snipped>

[winner69]

Mav - from Summerset Annual Report .... haven't looked at Oceania

The cost of retirement units includes directly attributable construction costs and other costs necessary to bring the retirement units to working condition for the irintended use. These other costs include professional fees and consents, interest during the build period and head office costs directly related to the construction of the retirement units.

[Grimy]

Thanks Maverick. Always look forwards to your posts, and learn more with each one.

[Beau]

Thanks for putting in the time and sharing Maverick much appreciated

[RupertBear]

Thanks for your excellent post Maverick, much appreciated

[bull....]

good input mav , true champion of the stock you are.

how - ever back to the reality at the coal face

Staff shortages in Aged Care sector at crisis point

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2022/07/staff-shortages-in-aged-care-sector-at-crisis-point.html


According to Health New Zealand, 672 aged care residents had Covid-19 as of Monday.
A total of 726 people have died in aged care facilities since the start of the pandemic THe % speaks loudly

So my senario would play out over a longer enough time frame . ie supply would exceed demand if the rate of death continued. how -ever i read on stuff the govt may make mask mandate compulsory in schools so that may throw a spanner in the theory

[Maverick]

Mav - from Summerset Annual Report .... haven't looked at Oceania

The cost of retirement units includes directly attributable construction costs and other costs necessary to bring the retirement units to working condition for the irintended use. These other costs include professional fees and consents, interest during the build period and head office costs directly related to the construction of the retirement units.
Hey Winner , thanks for your feedback,
I assume that explanation above from SUM is more to do with working out their cost of build per unit - therefore working out margins etc. Whatever is included and sure oca do similar for comparison purposes here.
The numbers / graphs I was playing around with was aimed more towards the large overhead and operating cost increases that OCA and SUM seem to keep racking up annually.

I was quite taken by surprise to see both these companies are running very similar annual increases and so instep over the last 5years. ( while SUM is higher , they do have care workers in there too, which OCA doesn't).
I read it as OCA does not have out of control annual overhead / operating cost rises. Surely it is part of increasing there respective build rates and ambitions by front footing the costs of "boots on the ground " to do it. Proven , to me at least, by SUMs similar patterns and followed by their proven success over a greater time period. In fact I would be concerned if OCA`s wasn't high since they say "positioned for growth" a lot in the last result.

I do not know about ARV or RYMs relative situation to these 2 as I dont follow them closely.
I think Bull is kind of right though, in this environment , the market sentiments is firmly in the drivers seat. Time for analysis comes later.

[Rawz]

good input mav , true champion of the stock you are.

how - ever back to the reality at the coal face

Staff shortages in Aged Care sector at crisis point

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2022/07/staff-shortages-in-aged-care-sector-at-crisis-point.html


According to Health New Zealand, 672 aged care residents had Covid-19 as of Monday.
A total of 726 people have died in aged care facilities since the start of the pandemic THe % speaks loudly

So my senario would play out over a longer enough time frame . ie supply would exceed demand if the rate of death continued. how -ever i read on stuff the govt may make mask mandate compulsory in schools so that may throw a spanner in the theory


That 726 people who have died in RV since 2020? Is that high? i wouldnt have a clue.
35,000 people die each year. So say 70,000+ since the pandemic started.

The article is pretty bad just throwing out numbers. the reader really doesnt have any comparison to previous years.

Interesting the facility manager of the rest home quoted in the article said they managed the virus when it found its way in. Flu-like symptoms and got through.

[Habits]

That 726 people who have died in RV since 2020? Is that high? i wouldnt have a clue.
35,000 people die each year. So say 70,000+ since the pandemic started.

The article is pretty bad just throwing out numbers. the reader really doesnt have any comparison to previous years.

Interesting the facility manager of the rest home quoted in the article said they managed the virus when it found its way in. Flu-like symptoms and got through.

In the 70s old people in institutions and RV were not given winter vaccines for flu and deaths were common every winter. When the vaccine became general issue and free it was a gamechanger to the point where those who were on their last legs still did not pass

[winner69]

Mav - it's just I got the impression that you 'assumed' the reported corporate overheads include some costs in developing sites (eg project managers, buyers etc etc) and as such as build rates increased so would these costs .... meaning reported corporate overheads increase.

I gather that Summerset capitalises the cost of staff directly involved in the development process - the costs are not expensed (ie into corporate overheads wherever) but are treated as a capital item and included in the overall cost of a development.

Whatever the case your exercise does show that corporate overheads do increase as the business get bigger - which you would expect with more villages to operate and so on

[Baa_Baa]

@Maverick, quality post as always, thank you, your insights can only come from deep research.

@Ferg, another gem posted elsewhere, would you mind posting it here as well?

[Ferg]

@Ferg, another gem posted elsewhere, would you mind posting it here as well?

How did you know I would read this?? :)

Anyhoo...in response to a question elsewhere as to how can different investors have such divergent views on OCA (i.e. optimists vs pessimists), I posted this:


There are plenty who take a long term positive outlook but we are ok with dissenting points of view that are based on facts (e.g. values per annual reports & annual trends etc). The positive outlook is based on understanding the levers other than care within OCA that will drive future profitability, e.g. DMF revenue growing at an exponential rate, premium care revenues increasing, as well as increasing development & resale volumes and margins.

The issue of unsold care suites for OCA is due to facilities being demolished and the patients/clients being transferred to a new facility which counts as unsold until it's first ORA sale. But in the meantime OCA is still collecting weekly care revenues for these "unsold" suites.


In addition, care suite development margins sit in the village P&L rather than the care P&L which muddies the waters for OCA given such gains could not be achieved without the care model. The marketing strategy for OCA involves a continuum of care which allows easy transition for clients through various parts of the business. Increasing care costs need to be volume adjusted and one also needs to consider the one-off impacts of Covid, including subsidy repayments last year. OCA have also locked in some relatively low interest rates via the 2 bond issues.


The frustration for long term holders is obvious given they were sold on the care model which has not delivered to expectation. That is being addressed by increased acquisition and development activity, assuming they can deliver on this new strategy. Patience is required with OCA if one has a view of 2-3 years or more. But for someone with a short term view who follows TA, I can understand why they would not be so positive about OCA.


Diversity of experience and opinion is a good thing and we should be thankful we are not all in agreement, otherwise there would be nothing of value to discuss.

[Maverick]

Posted by FERG
The positive outlook is based on understanding the levers other than care within OCA that will drive future profitability, e.g. DMF revenue growing at an exponential rate, premium care revenues increasing, as well as increasing development & resale volumes and margins.

The issue of unsold care suites for OCA is due to facilities being demolished and the patients/clients being transferred to a new facility which counts as unsold until it's first ORA sale. But in the meantime OCA is still collecting weekly care revenues for these "unsold" suites.


In addition, care suite development margins sit in the village P&L rather than the care P&L which muddies the waters for OCA given such gains could not be achieved without the care model. The marketing strategy for OCA involves a continuum of care which allows easy transition for clients through various parts of the business. Increasing care costs need to be volume adjusted and one also needs to consider the one-off impacts of Covid, including subsidy repayments last year. OCA have also locked in some relatively low interest rates via the 2 bond issues.

That's a mighty fine post Ferg. The bulk of the OCA care story summed up really well right there.

It seems there are 2 schools of entrenched thought on care now.
A Care is unprofitable, care suits aren't working and care overall has become a liability.
B. Care offers value to the rest of the village business and is going to eventually be profitable in its own right.

Care profit has almost halved since the care suit phase began in earnest and has then remained flat around 3 years now with no growth. “Option A” is the only natural conclusion.

BUT…."Option B" can also be true, if Fergs summary is correct.

Based on my own work, “care” will demonstrate its own financial worth, more than just an altruistic loss leader to the rest of the business, in the next HY result , and upwards thereafter. IMO, OCA will finally see the evidence by a decent rise in care profit from 1HY23 onwards.

No doubt the "option A" people would have sold already , but to the rest who remain, my workings say waiting only another 4 more months should help decide whether the option B guys are misguided and should be put on ignore.

If care profits start to rise, ( and IMO they certainly will), then coupled with strong rising village profits too, the ongoing care suit model debate will simply disappear.

The only thing I disagree with Ferg on his post is that the 2-3 years to see overall meaningful rewards should be 1-2 years.

Again , that was an awesome post Ferg.

[Ggcc]

Posted by FERG
The positive outlook is based on understanding the levers other than care within OCA that will drive future profitability, e.g. DMF revenue growing at an exponential rate, premium care revenues increasing, as well as increasing development & resale volumes and margins.

The issue of unsold care suites for OCA is due to facilities being demolished and the patients/clients being transferred to a new facility which counts as unsold until it's first ORA sale. But in the meantime OCA is still collecting weekly care revenues for these "unsold" suites.


In addition, care suite development margins sit in the village P&L rather than the care P&L which muddies the waters for OCA given such gains could not be achieved without the care model. The marketing strategy for OCA involves a continuum of care which allows easy transition for clients through various parts of the business. Increasing care costs need to be volume adjusted and one also needs to consider the one-off impacts of Covid, including subsidy repayments last year. OCA have also locked in some relatively low interest rates via the 2 bond issues.

That's a mighty fine post Ferg. The bulk of the OCA care story summed up really well right there.

It seems there are 2 schools of entrenched thought on care now.
A Care is unprofitable, care suits aren't working and care overall has become a liability.
B. Care offers value to the rest of the village business and is going to eventually be profitable in its own right.

Care profit has almost halved since the care suit phase began in earnest and has then remained flat around 3 years now with no growth. “Option A” is the only natural conclusion.

BUT…."Option B" can also be true, if Fergs summary is correct.

Based on my own work, “care” will demonstrate its own financial worth, more than just an altruistic loss leader to the rest of the business, in the next HY result , and upwards thereafter. IMO, OCA will finally see the evidence by a decent rise in care profit from 1HY23 onwards.

No doubt the "option A" people would have sold already , but to the rest who remain, my workings say waiting only another 4 more months should help decide whether the option B guys are misguided and should be put on ignore.

If care profits start to rise, ( and IMO they certainly will), then coupled with strong rising village profits too, the ongoing care suit model debate will simply disappear.

The only thing I disagree with Ferg on his post is that the 2-3 years to see overall meaningful rewards should be 1-2 years.

Again , that was an awesome post Ferg.



Great post.

The government needs to step up to make care more viable and have that put into their future plans. However I feel that right now spending is not the wisest idea for this government to do and I feel they will be trying to make more cuts in spending to keep inflation lower. It’s doubled edged dagger.

Maybe care subsidy side will increase, but below inflation for a few more years meaning more paycuts for car employees. Not great news for short term