OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[winner69]

Given ARV and MET are trading around 16 times current underlying earnings, I reckon OCA should be on a similar multiple and reach $1.35 very very soon!

Sounds logical enough

But in reality why should they all be on similar multiples?

[winner69]

On NPAT ...real profits I think respective PEs are -

SUM 7.4 using Dec 18 reported profits
MET 8.0 using 4traders forecast $163m to year ended June 18
OCA 11.2 using IPO profit forecast to May 18
RYM 15.4 using March 18 reported profits
ARV 8.4 using March 18 reported profits

Maybe the market doesn’t price this sector on underlying earnings after all.

More consistently around real profits ...with OCA and RYM most ‘expensive’ for.want of another word

[Beagle]

That was back in early Jan

Couts and me reckon RYM:SUM:OCA shareprice ratio should be about 10:5:1

Was true back in January ....but not now for OCA

Been a bit slack in spite of all the good news

OCA should be $1.20 by know ...and Beagle thinks $1,12 in seven weeks time pretty good

Will it ever catch up ...or will it just prove that the Winner Couts Theorem is a load of **** by always being a laggard.

I'm buying OCA left right and center so for what its worth I think there is some merit in Couta1's relativity theory :t_up: (although I very much doubt he will get knighted for it like Sir Isaac Newton with his theory of relativity)
:)

[Beagle]

On NPAT ...real profits I think respective PEs are -

SUM 7.4 using Dec 18 reported profits
MET 8.0 using 4traders forecast $163m to year ended June 18
OCA 11.2 using IPO profit forecast to May 18
RYM 15.4 using March 18 reported profits
ARV 8.4 using March 18 reported profits

Maybe the market doesn’t price this sector on underlying earnings after all.

More consistently around real profits ...with OCA and RYM most ‘expensive’ for.want of another word

If these shares were priced based on reported profits inclusive of all property revaluations then SUM would be a lot higher than it is today as a PE of 7.4 for a company that's growing earnings at an average rate of 45% per annum for the last 6 years...those sort of numbers never go together...EVER ! Underlying earnings it is and the market slowly starting to do its SUM's on SUM. No worries, $9+ within a year.

[winner69]

I'm buying OCA left right and center so for what its worth I think there is some merit in Couta1's relativity theory :t_up: (although I very much doubt he will get knighted for it like Sir Isaac Newton with his theory of relativity)
:)

Good on you ....and keep buying to get the price up more as I still hold .......and I want to make reasonable return before selling.

[Joshuatree]

Me too and dont forget to tell us when you are selling truckloads, or is that what you really mean now:confused::t_up:

[Beagle]

That was back in early Jan

Couts and me reckon RYM:SUM:OCA shareprice ratio should be about 10:5:1

Was true back in January ....but not now for OCA

Been a bit slack in spite of all the good news

OCA should be $1.20 by know ...and Beagle thinks $1,12 in seven weeks time pretty good

Will it ever catch up ...or will it just prove that the Winner Couts Theorem is a load of **** by always being a laggard.

So...on that theory of 1 SUM = 5 OCA and with SUM at $7.50 OCA should be $1.50 !!!!

But I'm not greedy so lets go back 6 months and SUM were $5.25 and OCA were $0.97, extrapolate that 5.41 : 1 ratio out and we get $1.39 fair value for OCA.

Lets split the difference and say OCA should be $1.40 !

[Ggcc]

I may just sell out at $10 per share until then I stay put

[Beagle]

Me too and dont forget to tell us when you are selling truckloads, or is that what you really mean now:confused::t_up:

LOL, no this is a great retirement stock in more ways than one. Holding for long term growth and growing dividends too, estimated at 5.5% gross next year.
Some guy on here reckons you should look for companies that can grow dividends over the years and I reckon he's bang on the money.

[Food4Thought]

It was $1.05 at end of December 2017

In spite of all the good news and good guidance it’s only $1.03

Hardly 1 or 2 cents a month is it ....but suppose patience is a virtue ...a real virtue

I like optimism. 1 - 2 c movements are a real joy to see for me. I like it. I am far more real than optimistic too ;)

[Food4Thought]

It was $1.05 at end of December 2017

In spite of all the good news and good guidance it’s only $1.03

Hardly 1 or 2 cents a month is it ....but suppose patience is a virtue ...a real virtue


I may just sell out at $10 per share until then I stay put

I know the scenario I like the sound of... both don't sound bad really

[winner69]

Close 107 pretty good ...can't complain

Another good day tomorrow and we are at 110 ... a few days after I predicted

Momentum is growing ...cmon guys keep on buying

[Lawstudent05]

LOL, no this is a great retirement stock in more ways than one. Holding for long term growth and growing dividends too, estimated at 5.5% gross next year.
Some guy on here reckons you should look for companies that can grow dividends over the years and I reckon he's bang on the money.

That guy sounds like a top bloke, whos onto a good plan.

[winner69]

That guy sounds like a top bloke, whos onto a good plan.

He's Beagle's alter ego ....the more sensible one (ha ha)

[peat]

L
Some guy on here reckons you should look for companies that can grow dividends

I was thinking he meant Percy.

Nice to see these move a little.
There is a lot of resistance at these levels though, and it must push on through and demonstrate conviction.

Needs more ATH

[JayRiggs]

Sounds logical enough

But in reality why should they all be on similar multiples?

Taking a simplistic view, the quality of the company. The board of directors, management team, staff, quality of villages, reputation etc.
The higher quality company will normally have the highest PE. i.e. Ryman. They got the longest track record and trust of the market.
OCA look to have top notch board of directors and management team with a solid plan. I'd like to think the quality of OCA is at least as good as MET and ARV if not better.

I suppose it's FY19 outlook we've been lacking along with a consistent set of results, so market hasn't been as confident in OCA compared to SUM and RYM. We will find out more in 7 weeks time!

Also ARV since listing took about 15 months before it really took off. We could see the same thing with OCA here.

[warren]

[QUOTE=JayRiggs;717578]Taking a simplistic view, the quality of the company. The board of directors, management team, staff, quality of villages, reputation etc.
The higher quality company will normally have the highest PE. i.e. Ryman. They got the longest track record and trust of the market.
OCA look to have top notch board of directors

Ummm new Director " he has also established construction and aged care businesses. Mr Tomlinson established Qualcare before it was sold into the Oceania Group in early 2008 and he was a director of Oceania Healthcare from 2008 until 2016. He is currently a director of, and has a shareholding interest in, Oceania Healthcare"

Top notch long history in the BUSINESS and he plonks down $3,500 000 for 3,504 260 shares the day he comes on board -------this is my sort of leader who will double + his money (and mine) as well as making a lot of elderly, gentle and often very infirm people happy with wonderful care and employing 3000+ outstanding staff.

[Ggcc]

[QUOTE=JayRiggs;717578]Taking a simplistic view, the quality of the company. The board of directors, management team, staff, quality of villages, reputation etc.
The higher quality company will normally have the highest PE. i.e. Ryman. They got the longest track record and trust of the market.
OCA look to have top notch board of directors

Ummm new Director " he has also established construction and aged care businesses. Mr Tomlinson established Qualcare before it was sold into the Oceania Group in early 2008 and he was a director of Oceania Healthcare from 2008 until 2016. He is currently a director of, and has a shareholding interest in, Oceania Healthcare"

Top notch long history in the BUSINESS and he plonks down $3,500 000 for 3,504 260 shares the day he comes on board -------this is my sort of leader who will double + his money (and mine) as well as making a lot of elderly, gentle and often very infirm people happy with wonderful care and employing 3000+ outstanding staff.
I hope people will continue to love this great company which maybe one of the last affordable ones at these prices looking at the future. I have a ++ shareholding in this company, but will advise my partner to invest her money into this share as I think within 2 more years I expect it to be worth around $2 per share

[Xerof]

he plonks down $3,500 000 for 3,504 260 shares the day he comes on board

Sorry mate, but Harrowgate Trustees (Tomlinson) has been a shareholder long before the IPO, so he's had them a while. Has to declare his interest as ea Director, thats all.

But if it's any consolation, I have been steadily buying for the past week or two:)

[Food4Thought]

Sorry mate, but Harrowgate Trustees (Tomlinson) has been a shareholder long before the IPO, so he's had them a while. Has to declare his interest as ea Director, thats all.

But if it's any consolation, I have been steadily buying for the past week or two:)

Would explain the increase in price. Keep up the good work

[Beagle]

Alan Isaac director paid $1.09 for lots more shares immediately after the release of the half year result way back in January 2018. I do genuinely believe there is real value in the current price especially given RYM, SUM and ARV have run quite considerably north of their SP level's of 5-6 months ago. I think they could do 10-11 cps underlying next year, (heck they might even go close to 10 cps this year as they seemed very confident of meeting the IPO forecast of underlying earnings of 8.42 cps) and all going well the market could ascribe them a multiple of 14-15 by reporting date in July 2019 as they prove up their business case and assuming by then the overhang is gone. Possible upside potential to as much as 11 x 15 = $1.65 in just the next 12-14 months in my opinion.

My rating BBB (Beagle busy buying) :)

[Jerry]

I'm buying OCA left right and center so for what its worth I think there is some merit in Couta1's relativity theory :t_up: (although I very much doubt he will get knighted for it like Sir Isaac Newton with his theory of relativity)
:)
That was Sir Albert! :)

[Joshuatree]

Looks like a feel good build up, knees up, sun warming, backslapping, caching, sort of thread has developed on here all in aannnttiiicccipat i-o-nn. It really is the secret, selling when everyone is buying, i may think about doing that tomorrow too.:cool:

[Beagle]

Looks like a feel good build up, knees up, sun warming, backslapping, caching, sort of thread has developed on here all in aannnttiiicccipat i-o-nn. It really is the secret, selling when everyone is buying, i may think about doing that tomorrow too.:cool:

Yeah...NAH..I think you're getting too cynical in your old age.

[Joshuatree]

Too much Hot Coffee, Hot Copper, got to be cynical when it comes to the smell of money Rog.

[Food4Thought]

Too much Hot Coffee, Hot Copper, got to be cynical when it comes to the smell of money Rog.

Long way to go. Don't blow your steam too early mate

[Joshuatree]

F4T Im not a trader on NZX stocks like some on here are , and plan to hold these awhile hopefully, from IPO. I have learnt that pump and dumps happen all the time everywhere. One example buy up big , get set on a stock before its results, then spruik it up , promote it pump it up, then sell just before results and move on to your next one. It happens a lot and if folks on here dont believe or know this they are naive to put it politely. From time to time i will refresh this tactic as i have in the past, when i see a rave up happening as a caution esp to newbies.

There are Investors and traders on here,with very different agendas.

[Beagle]

I'm holding these long term, bought just after the IPO at 81 cents when the IPO listing had been de risked and added at various points along the way including yesterday at $1.06. As mentioned previously I see this as a value play in this sector.

[JayRiggs]

Shares at 1.07 chomped up this morning, now we on 1.08-1.09 buy/sell.
This little pup starting to find his feet.

[Lawstudent05]

Anyone able to do a screenshot of the buy/sell wait list?

[44wishlists]

Anyone able to do a screenshot of the buy/sell wait list?

https://online.asb.co.nz/ost/FAC626081BE9C6FD922580EA7AB81257/stock/depth?stockcode=oca&exchangecode=nzx&amendment=false&stockdisplayname=oceania%2bhealthcare%2blimited%2b ordinary%2bshares

[Filthy]

Anyone able to do a screenshot of the buy/sell wait list?

OCA screenshot

9722

[Lawstudent05]

Thanks Team,

Interesting indeed.

[Food4Thought]

F4T Im not a trader on NZX stocks like some on here are , and plan to hold these awhile hopefully, from IPO. I have learnt that pump and dumps happen all the time everywhere. One example buy up big , get set on a stock before its results, then spruik it up , promote it pump it up, then sell just before results and move on to your next one. It happens a lot and if folks on here dont believe or know this they are naive to put it politely. From time to time i will refresh this tactic as i have in the past, when i see a rave up happening as a caution esp to newbies.

There are Investors and traders on here,with very different agendas.

Fair enough. I am also not a trader (I would say that wouldn't I). I am long term focused as I have many years before official retirement age ... 30+ years to go. I don't have time to trade and find it a bad way to increase nervousness. Too much of a gamble.

I started investing when I was 16. Instead of putting a majority of job earnt cash into toys I did term deposits, bought some share, made some money, lost some money... etc.

This OCA has me excited and after now easily doubling from SUM others. .. I am enthusiastic and optimistic about OCA. Even if it stagnated some time. Dividend and long term. Banks are pretty useless these days with term deposits and safer investments. Crypto is not something I can be bothered with.

I like what I see. Did the same with CHA, RYM, 42Below, THL (curse my sell!), PBL, GXH, HBL, AIR, and a few others. Good fun. Got burnt a few times RBC, RAK, PGW (double curse my sell) (GFC, the big fear generator - taught me a lesson or 2), yet those times are turning into less and less frequent as I have changed strategy and noticed time has often been the best indicator with lower avg returns and better long term outcomes. Graphing potential. Brand reception. Demographics. ... global situations.

Supply and demand. New Zealand. To me, what I notice... ownership is what all the big players are getting out of those impatient or provoked selling too early and not waiting for their fruits to mature.

Also interesting to ponder who and where the next merger and buy out will be. ... health care hasn't had much buying up from what I see... it'll only be a matter of time. Australia often likes to buy out Kiwi brands and companies. ...because Kiwis generally do it better. Poor Macpac got bought up recently.... fair enough for the owner if he is going to live life and enjoy the sacrifices with running a successful business.

Happy weekend people... I am a even happier holder. Better get back to cofinement

[tuaman]

Fair enough. I am also not a trader (I would say that wouldn't I). I am long term focused as I have many years before official retirement age ... 30+ years to go. I don't have time to trade and find it a bad way to increase nervousness. Too much of a gamble.

I started investing when I was 16. Instead of putting a majority of job earnt cash into toys I did term deposits, bought some share, made some money, lost some money... etc.

This OCA has me excited and after now easily doubling from SUM others. .. I am enthusiastic and optimistic about OCA. Even if it stagnated some time. Dividend and long term. Banks are pretty useless these days with term deposits and safer investments. Crypto is not something I can be bothered with.

I like what I see. Did the same with CHA, RYM, 42Below, THL (curse my sell!), PBL, GXH, HBL, AIR, and a few others. Good fun. Got burnt a few times RBC, RAK, PGW (double curse my sell) (GFC, the big fear generator - taught me a lesson or 2), yet those times are turning into less and less frequent as I have changed strategy and noticed time has often been the best indicator with lower avg returns and better long term outcomes. Graphing potential. Brand reception. Demographics. ... global situations.

Supply and demand. New Zealand. To me, what I notice... ownership is what all the big players are getting out of those impatient or provoked selling too early and not waiting for their fruits to mature.

Also interesting to ponder who and where the next merger and buy out will be. ... health care hasn't had much buying up from what I see... it'll only be a matter of time. Australia often likes to buy out Kiwi brands and companies. ...because Kiwis generally do it better. Poor Macpac got bought up recently.... fair enough for the owner if he is going to live life and enjoy the sacrifices with running a successful business.

Happy weekend people... I am a even happier holder. Better get back to cofinement


Hi
I have been to the OCA Browns Bay construction site. It was really awesome, beautiful beach front site and it made me decide to keep the share at least 5 years or more no matter what. It seems most of the other retirement shares grow up x2 or x3 for the time-frame of 3-5 years. Happy OCA holder.

[trader_jackson]

Hi
I have been to the OCA Browns Bay construction site. It was really awesome, beautiful beach front site and it made me decide to keep the share at least 5 years or more no matter what. It seems most of the other retirement shares grow up x2 or x3 for the time-frame of 3-5 years. Happy OCA holder.

I have been keeping an eye on this as well, and - like several of OCA's villages - it, although small, was well run, well regarded, premium spot and a target for bigly redevelopment - it was one of the reasons I brought at IPO.
Let us not forget I was one of the few on here that have been genuinely positive about OCA since day 1, many others have jumped on the bandwagon since then!

[macduffy]

I have been keeping an eye on this as well, and - like several of OCA's villages - it, although small, was well run, well regarded, premium spot and a target for bigly redevelopment - it was one of the reasons I brought at IPO.
Let us not forget I was one of the few on here that have been genuinely positive about OCA since day 1, many others have jumped on the bandwagon since then!

How could we forget, t j ?

;)

I've been there with you!

[winner69]

Let us not forget I was one of the few on here that have been genuinely positive about OCA since day 1, many others have jumped on the bandwagon since then!

give that man a medal ......but then again if everybody was a 'genuinely positive' as tj he wouldn't have got his bargain shares at 79 cents or whatever it was

let us not forget

[Beagle]

give that man a medal ......but then again if everybody was a 'genuinely positive' as tj he wouldn't have got his bargain shares at 79 cents or whatever it was

let us not forget


Pays to do your SUM's carefully and work out who which horses have pedigree breeding. No question they had to float this company very cheap just on a year ago to attract enough interest but the consequent effect was you could buy SUM other companies for a bargain price at that time as this float sucked the wind out of the incumbent players sails. SUM up 50% from ~ $5 a year ago and has been the outperformer of this sector over the last year. Was a rough 2017 though with it hitting a low of $4.60 in November 2017 which really tested some people's resolve.

Looking ahead OCA the dark unproven horse of this field now though for 2018 / 2019 and trading on (rough guess on my part seeing as 31 May 2018 results haven't even been released yet) a FY19 underlying PE of about 10-11 it looks quite cheap. If they can prove their business model and the outlook all looks good there's plenty of scope for possible strong sector outperformance in the year ahead.

Disc: Hedging my bets for the year ahead by trimming SUM a little recently and reallocating to topping up my investment in OCA. Just about a bob each way now although I still have a preference for well proven performers.

If we can get rid of that overhang and everything goes to plan, OCA might be the one having a turn in returning 50% for shareholders in the year ahead.

[winner69]

Isn’t it likely the overhang will just become another overhang

I don’t think this perceived overhang is holding OCA back at the moment .....probably a few punters with too much time on their hands thinking too much .....and maybe looking for a reason why the share price is not rocketing ahead

[trader_jackson]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12066107

And Northbridge is not for profit...

[peat]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12066107

And Northbridge is not for profit...

there are of course risks in the retirement sector so one should not completely overdo it in terms of portfolio allocation etc....
I tend to think these risks arise from regulation or investigation but that said if the govt cracks down too hard they will create an enormous problem for themselves

[Lawstudent05]

1.09, not bad, nearly at an all-time high.

[Lukeskywalker]

Enjoying these gains as of recent OCA friends? I would be very interested to know (if people feel comfortable sharing), how many shares do you have in OCA? I have 20,000 and it's my biggest holding.

[Joshuatree]

Ive got some from 1 to 20 million meaning what has number got to do with anything other than 20,000 sits in your risk reward and% holding in the NZX component of your portfolio in this sector. Each investment portfolio pretty unique depending on your age, risk, and mindset, eg a trader or an investor.Comparing can be misleading imo:confused: etc.Does that help?:)

[BlackPeter]

Enjoying these gains as of recent OCA friends? I would be very interested to know (if people feel comfortable sharing), how many shares do you have in OCA? I have 20,000 and it's my biggest holding.

Not a big fan of disclosing on a semi-anonymous forum absolute numbers, and lets face it - they are irrelevant to understand where the individual poster is coming from. What does matter are relative sizes - and OCA is in my (though quite diversified) portfolio XXL sized.

Just to put this into perspective ... If all my holdings would be XXL sized, than I would hold roughly 10 different stocks ... but obviously - they are not and I hold more ;);

[couta1]

Enjoying these gains as of recent OCA friends? I would be very interested to know (if people feel comfortable sharing), how many shares do you have in OCA? I have 20,000 and it's my biggest holding. OCA makes up about 4% of my portfolio total currently whilst at the other end ATM makes up about 45%. Not sure what that tells you other than I like risk.

[Lawstudent05]

Enjoying these gains as of recent OCA friends? I would be very interested to know (if people feel comfortable sharing), how many shares do you have in OCA? I have 20,000 and it's my biggest holding.

OCA makes up 48% of my total holdings within Shares. My largest holding is a private investment into a company not listed on an exchange.

[dabsman]

This is my 3rd biggest holding currently. My biggest holding is the 5 ostriches which should have about 10 babies which will make me so much money I wont know what to do with

[thestg]

OCA makes up about 4% of my portfolio total currently whilst at the other end ATM makes up about 45%. Not sure what that tells you other than I like risk.
Sounds close to mine OCA 4.85% at the other end ATM at 38.27%

[Ggcc]

All I can say glad to see Oceania is going up. I am happy holding for the long term with no intention to sell. It is roughly 15% of my share portfolio. No numbers, but this will be over 25% of my portfolio in 4 years time I reckon with a great return in dividends

[trader_jackson]

OCA currently makes up 9.5% of the portfolio
And the other listed dog makes up a bit more than that.

[Food4Thought]

A good 35%. She's a keeper

[Timesurfer]

I am not sure a health facility trading around 1080 is a good look?

[Food4Thought]

I am not sure a health facility trading around 1080 is a good look?

Good afternoon Timesurfer. Not sure what you mean?

[Timesurfer]

Good afternoon Timesurfer. Not sure what you mean?

Sorry, just referring to the dependence NZ has on 1080 for pest control.

I have also been convinced that I am missing out by not holding any of these shares - so unlike the rest of you, I am now hoping they plummet to a price I can afford to adopt a stakeholding.;)

[garfy]

Timesurfer, I thought you comment was brilliant!! Perhaps people didn't realise the association of 1080, and $1.08.....

I got a good smile out of that!!

Cheers.

[DarkHorse]

I doubled my stake on Friday, but still only a moderate (<5%) part of my portfolio... Majority on asx, OCA certainly one of the top half dozen value buys on nzx atm imo lol ^^
Why wait for a big fall timesurfer? The trend is your friend, price increase just means you can't afford as many shares.

[Timesurfer]

Very true DarkHorse.
I just have to give my revovling credit a chance to heal a little before making another splurge.

[Food4Thought]

Sorry, just referring to the dependence NZ has on 1080 for pest control.

I have also been convinced that I am missing out by not holding any of these shares - so unlike the rest of you, I am now hoping they plummet to a price I can afford to adopt a stakeholding.;)

Don't think. Just buy... while you can. I hope it works out for you waiting... no one ever know what the future will bring. Goodluck.

P.s. I now clicked to your 1080 comment. Nicely done. Made me laugh too

[huxley]

OCA represents 19.34% of FUM.. should probably stop buying now, eh?

[BlackPeter]

FUM ? :confused:

[winner69]

FUM ? :confused:

Think Huxley is his own Fund Manager and FUM is Funds Under Management

[BlackPeter]

Think Huxley is his own Fund Manager and FUM is Funds Under Management

Ah - this explains it! Cheers 9729

[Xerof]

Yes, still buying here, first 3 trades this morning. I do note someone that appears to want to sell, doesn't really - they keep moving the offer 2 steps higher than market.......pathetic capping attempt

[couta1]

Yes, still buying here, first 3 trades this morning. I do note someone that appears to want to sell, doesn't really - they keep moving the offer 2 steps higher than market.......pathetic capping attempt Perhaps they do want to sell at the right price, $1.11 equals all time high and above that is unknown and unproven territory to date.

[huxley]

Think Huxley is his own Fund Manager and FUM is Funds Under Management


It's a case of "dress for the portfolio you want, not the one you have" :cool:

[tuaman]

Enjoying these gains as of recent OCA friends? I would be very interested to know (if people feel comfortable sharing), how many shares do you have in OCA? I have 20,000 and it's my biggest holding.

I have lots of shares and it is 93% of my port-- actually one of two.
Here is my last week's pic of the browns bay beach front const site if someone wants to have a look.
https://ibb.co/k2Awzd

[Pipi]

I have 5,000, but will look at getting more as funds allow.

[peat]

OCA is 6.5% of my equity portfolio
thanks for the photo Tuaman.

[kiora]

I have lots of shares and it is 93% of my port-- actually one of two.
Here is my last week's pic of the browns bay beach front const site if someone wants to have a look.
https://ibb.co/k2Awzd

Wow,we must be there soon.How many cranes in the landscape?

[tuaman]

Wow,we must be there soon.How many cranes in the landscape?
Hi I only saw one huge crane in front and lots of workers-more than 20, I guess.
This is a small vid around the site. It was very noisy so I took off the sound.

https://vimeo.com/274811367

[Beagle]

Holding about 6% of my portfolio in this one and happy to accumulate some more on future weakness, if any. I really would like some more.

[value_investor]

I bought a small position quite recently, and I'm sitting at 6% of my total portfolio. I like the company and the direction it is in but my only concern is that it is very young. I don't know enough about management and their qualities in reaching their targets and guidance etc.

So far its been very good, and I could see myself accumulating more as time goes. It could be a great value play going forward especially if RYM and SUM become outside the realm of value plays. RYM is already there.

[dabsman]

I hold a good chunk of these. I bought at IPO and a lot more in the days after. Don't discount Ryman. I think the next few years will be massive for Ryman and I think 15% will be a walk in the park. Australia is a big big big land...

[Beagle]

I bought a small position quite recently, and I'm sitting at 6% of my total portfolio. I like the company and the direction it is in but my only concern is that it is very young. I don't know enough about management and their qualities in reaching their targets and guidance etc.

So far its been very good, and I could see myself accumulating more as time goes. It could be a great value play going forward especially if RYM and SUM become outside the realm of value plays. RYM is already there.


Well said. That's why I'm also sitting back in the saddle a bit at 6%...could easily buy more but I feel its early days to go "all in" on a full sized position. Currently on a trailing PE of just 12.9 if they meet guidance of 8.42 cps so still appears cheap at $1.09 on a trailing sector comparison PE basis. On a forward PE basis this is how I think thing could pan out over the next few years, (cut and pasted from another forum I posted in today when asked where I see the PE going)

I think there's quite a number of factors to consider in thinking about where the PE multiple might go.
1. The sector as a whole has considerable tailwinds.
2. OCA has earned a stellar reputation as a late stage service provider.
3. The business model for this sector is very tax efficient.I would add that I think this factor should not be underestimated and that in conjunction with the company keeping all the capital gain from the resale of units previously occupied by residents is a HUGE factor in driving wealth generation for shareholders and makes the whole sector extremely attractive. Fir this reason I think all companies in this sector trading under the market average PE are probably good value and considering RYM's track record of growth its also a sound hold.
4. The market average PE is about 19-20.
5. The sector average is somewhere in the late teens, I need to do some more analysis on this.
6. SUM's forward PE according to Winner on that other forum averaged in the mid 20's in the early years, (very high growth) but has settled at a forward PE at present of 16.6 but it took six years of strong average growth to get there. It could be presently being held back by a perception that real estate per se has peaked and their development margin may also have peaked.
7. RYM's forward PE is current about 25 but they have earned that based on arguably the longest period of high growth on the NZX of any company so I think their PE will remain the outlier for the foreseeable future.
8. The major shareholder's stake coming off escrow on the first day after the annual results next month is definitely holding back this share at the moment.
9. The business model of Arvida most closely resembles OCA and last time I looked at that stock it was on a PE in the mid teens
10. It takes time for the market to get comfortable with a relatively new listing.

In my opinion we will get a lot more clarity on the answer to your question as the passage of time reveals the companies credibility. If they meet or slightly exceed forecast 8.42 cps underlying profit for FY18 and the outlook looks good and if they post solid underlying EPS growth for FY19 and the outlook continues to look sound I believe we could see them gradually tracking up into the early and eventually mid teens in terms of PE over the next few years. Earnings growth and meeting forecasts and doing what they say they will do is what matters.

If they build credibility nicely over the next few years and build earnings we could see them on a PE of 15-16 in a few years time and if they can grow EPS to 13-14 cps over that timeframe then we could see the SP double over the next 4-5 years, perhaps sooner.

I think this one definitely has scope for market and sector outperformance but unfortunately like most things, (especially as this is only a recent listing) we have to wait and see how they go. Mannagement and directors have a good amount of skin in the game so their interests are aligned and they're motivated.

I have them on a forward dividend yield gross of 5.5% so one of the nice things about an investment in this one as opposed to most others in the sector is you're being paid quite well to enjoy future growth. I think therein lies a most attractive feature on OCA.

[peat]

I like the company and the direction it is in but my only concern is that it is very young. I don't know enough about management and their qualities in reaching their targets and guidance etc.


The calibre of the board is very high
The Chair Elizabeth Coutts received Officer of the NZ Order of Merit for her services to governance in 2016
She has an extensive history
http://http://www.lizcoutts.co.nz/

I heard good things about the accountants on the board as well.

[BlackPeter]

The calibre of the board is very high
The Chair Elizabeth Coutts received Officer of the NZ Order of Merit for her services to governance in 2016
She has an extensive history
http://http://www.lizcoutts.co.nz/

I heard good things about the accountants on the board as well.

Not a reflection on Elizabeth, but remember that CBL's board was composed of a Sir and a knight as well. I do see these rewards often as a significant risk factor indicating that the holder is most likely well past their "use before" date. Remember - even if they deserved the title in the first place for whatever they did (some did, others didn't) - past performance does not predict future returns ...

At best these titles are meaningless when assessing the composition of a board.

[warren]

[QUOTE=BlackPeter;718297]Not a reflection on Elizabeth, but remember that CBL's board was composed of a Sir and a knight as well. I do see these rewards often as a significant risk factor indicating that the holder is most likely well past their "use before" date. Remember - even if they deserved the title in the first place for whatever they did (some did, others

Hello Blackpeter.
While I agree with you in part, especially NZ Boards full of "well connected types" with anything BUT a lifetime in the actual Industry and limited to a token share in the game and very keen for the Directors income! (as they have actually created little themselves). But examples from amazing businesses don't agree with you.. Steve Jobs USA (Apple, Pixar, Apple), Graham Avery (NZ) Adis Press, Sileni Wines, Adis Press. Henry Ford (USA). Gerard Adriaan Heinken (Holland). John Rockerfeller (USA), Alfred Pritchard Sloan (USA). Douglas MacArthur (USA) and the genius of Inchon!
Forget use by dates; search out business geniuses but its not easy. They all have a huge share of the firm, a lifetime in that industry and SUCCESS. They generally don't work on salary and they are usually quiet, often being introverts with enormous slices of the action and age doesn't weary them. I think Liz will join their ranks.

[value_investor]

These things can happen, just in recent memory:

- The group managing director of CBL won the Entrepreneur of the year award 2017 https://www.ey.com/nz/en/about-us/entrepreneurship/entrepreneur-of-the-year/eoy-meet-the-2017-entrepreneur-of-the-year

- Ralph Norris overseeing huge losses at Fletcher and running away with his tail between his legs at Fletcher
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/101462307/the-ascent-and-descent-of-sir-ralph-norris

- Steel and Tube's very high profile move downwards (after touting a very experienced and successful team)
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/104133207/steel--tubes-shock-loss-breach-of-lending-covenants--but-has-turned-corner

I haven't been burned before but just reasoning myself for my decision above of not going all in just yet on this one. I'll keep accumulating as I see more and more positive signs. I think that accountability at the top is very myopic, when the company does well its the management, when the company does poorly its because of ____ factor and not poor management.

[winner69]

These things can happen, just in recent memory:

- The group managing director of CBL won the Entrepreneur of the year award 2017 https://www.ey.com/nz/en/about-us/entrepreneurship/entrepreneur-of-the-year/eoy-meet-the-2017-entrepreneur-of-the-year

- Ralph Norris overseeing huge losses at Fletcher and running away with his tail between his legs at Fletcher
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/101462307/the-ascent-and-descent-of-sir-ralph-norris

- Steel and Tube's very high profile move downwards (after touting a very experienced and successful team)
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/104133207/steel--tubes-shock-loss-breach-of-lending-covenants--but-has-turned-corner

I haven't been burned before but just reasoning myself for my decision above of not going all in just yet on this one. I'll keep accumulating as I see more and more positive signs. I think that accountability at the top is very myopic, when the company does well its the management, when the company does poorly its because of ____ factor and not poor management.

Hi VI - ever read The Halo Effect: ... and the Eight Other Business Delusions That Deceive Managers by Rosenzweig

great book

[Chinesekiwi]

About 45% of my few holdings.


Enjoying these gains as of recent OCA friends? I would be very interested to know (if people feel comfortable sharing), how many shares do you have in OCA? I have 20,000 and it's my biggest holding.

[winner69]

Going to finish the week on a RECORD HIGH ......isn’t it?

Wow ...the rocket did blast off ...must stick to my new TA system

[Beagle]

Going to finish the week on a RECORD HIGH ......isn’t it?

Wow ...the rocket did blast off ...must stick to my new TA system

Pretty sure this is headed to $2 in 4-5 years time and quite possibly a LOT sooner.

[Ggcc]

Pretty sure this is headed to $2 in 4-5 years time and quite possibly a LOT sooner.
I’m thinking more like 3 years

[winner69]

I’m thinking more like 3 years

Surely middle of next year just before F19 results

That's only just aver a year away

Don't forget everything is going for it .....the very best in directors and management, develpment pipeline etc etc

[winner69]

Pretty sure this is headed to $2 in 4-5 years time and quite possibly a LOT sooner.

I know its Friday but have you lost the plot or something

That 5 years to $2 is only 13% pa .....and you touting a PE of 16/17

Latter half of next year it will be close to 2 bucks

[Food4Thought]

I know its Friday but have you lost the plot or something

That 5 years to $2 is only 13% pa .....and you touting a PE of 16/17

Latter half of next year it will be

I am thinking. It is FriYay! SUM would say that there is a lot of attention in this sector atm. And I can consider options where a lot of cash will get diverted to. Good day!

P.s. good work Winner69 with the posting and info.

[Beagle]

I know its Friday but have you lost the plot or something

That 5 years to $2 is only 13% pa .....and you touting a PE of 16/17

Latter half of next year it will be

Heading is one of my favorite sayings to clients. See post #1327 which pretty thoroughly articulates my thoughts mate. Just trying to take a more conservative long term approach. I did put the word a LOT sooner in capitals for a good reason :) It takes time for any company to earn the market's trust.

I managed to sneak a few more into the kennel at close at $1.09, happy with that :)

[peat]

not going all in just yet on this one. I'll keep accumulating as I see more and more positive signs.

one of the criteria of Benjamin Graham was 10 years of growing dividends. So for him the company had to be at least 10 years old. (Guess he wasnt an IPO sort of guy!)

[Lawstudent05]

I see OCA hit 1.11 on Friday but didnt close on the number, all time high. Any have a current Buy and Sell ratio screenshot? Thanks in advance.

[JoeM]

I see OCA hit 1.11 on Friday but didnt close on the number, all time high. Any have a current Buy and Sell ratio screenshot? Thanks in advance.

Hope this works for ya


9745

[Lawstudent05]

Thanks Joe,
Lots of sell off at 1.11/1.12, will need a big push to clear that volume.

Cheers
Graham

[winner69]

Thanks Joe,
Lots of sell off at 1.11/1.12, will need a big push to clear that volume.

Cheers
Graham

...and that’s only the disclosed orders

[Blue Skies]

Thanks for this JoeM. Where can I find this online? Was going to add a few more to my holding today, but looking at those relatively large sell orders at 1.11 & 1.12 think I'll hold off. Don't want to swamp the boat if things turn a bit choppy!

[Onion]

Thanks for this JoeM. Where can I find this online? Was going to add a few more to my holding today, but looking at those relatively large sell orders at 1.11 & 1.12 think I'll hold off. Don't want to swamp the boat if things turn a bit choppy!

That is a screen shot of the ANZ Securities "Depth". You need to be logged in to see the depth.

I'm pretty sure ASB have a similar view (I seem to recall seeing a screen shot of the ASB equivalent on ST recently) but I'm not a client.

[Beagle]

Thanks for this JoeM. Where can I find this online? Was going to add a few more to my holding today, but looking at those relatively large sell orders at 1.11 & 1.12 think I'll hold off. Don't want to swamp the boat if things turn a bit choppy!

Some of that $1.11 and $1.12 offer could be a little "contrived" and I suspect when it starts trading at $1.11 some of it will magically disappear. If you like the company and think its prospects are very sound and believe its mispriced relative to the rest of the sector then a cent or two here or there over the medium term won't make much difference to your overall returns. Disc: I topped up again at $1.09 last Friday adding to recent top-up's at $1.04 and $1.06.

[couta1]

Some of that $1.11 and $1.12 offer could be a little "contrived" and I suspect when it starts trading at $1.11 some of it will magically disappear. If you like the company and think its prospects are very sound and believe its mispriced relative to the rest of the sector then a cent or two here or there over the medium term won't make much difference to your overall returns. Disc: I topped up again at $1.09 last Friday adding to recent top-up's at $1.04 and $1.06. Market manipulation, never.

[oldtech]

That is a screen shot of the ANZ Securities "Depth". You need to be logged in to see the depth.

I'm pretty sure ASB have a similar view (I seem to recall seeing a screen shot of the ASB equivalent on ST recently) but I'm not a client.

Correct, ASB has the same facility.

[Maverick]

I see OCA hit 1.11 on Friday but didnt close on the number, all time high. Any have a current Buy and Sell ratio screenshot? Thanks in advance.
mr LS, great how others are more than happy to help you along. "ASB margin lending " have really good share info .Not just the day to day trading stuff but a good layout of each companies annual financial breakdowns. I have always begun my research of any company with their well laid out tables as a good starting point.
they also have a non margin version.

On on the topic of margin, IMO When your experience and confidence grows, it's a great tool to get a bigger pile to make a sustainable 10-20%p/a return worth the bother of all the reasearch ...... as much as what I've just said will absolutely horrify any non-share person just remember, Those same pepole don't think twice about borrowing for a rental house or boat.

[Blue Skies]

Many thanks for everyones comments re where to find 'Depth'. The help on this forum has been brilliant & v much appreciated. I've been using ANZ Securities website for last 3.5 years & slowly built up a reasonably substantial portfolio of 9 shares (including OCA 7%, SUM 10%
of portfolio) & hadn't realised that tool was available on the ANZ site. Will def use it, with discretion, in future. Agree that a few cents here & there are unimportant as long as they're excellent companies in their field, & there's strongly growing demand in the field their operating in, both of which would seem to apply to OCA. Still just a little wary of just how big a 'cloud on the horizon' the overhang turns out to be or not to be!

[Xerof]

Some of that $1.11 and $1.12 offer could be a little "contrived" and I suspect when it starts trading at $1.11 some of it will magically disappear.

I reckon we should uniformly identify such offers (or bids) henceforth, as "Claytons offers" (or bids) due to the main characteristic of this phenomenon being, "its the offer we're having, when we're not having an offer"

Perhaps "a Henry Clayton" or indeed "a Milf Clayton" might be more appropriate, but I won't elaborate

[Onion]

I reckon we should uniformly identify such offers (or bids) henceforth, as "Claytons offers" (or bids) due to the main characteristic of this phenomenon being, "its the offer we're having, when we're not having an offer"

Perhaps "a Henry Clayton" or indeed "a Milf Clayton" might be more appropriate, but I won't elaborate


If I take your definition as meaning that they are offers that are not intended to actually trade, what would prevent the offers from trading if a matching bid appeared? That would surely need insight of incoming bids before they hit the market and a quick retraction of the offer (aka. the "withdrawal method").

PS. The Mayo Clinic says the withdrawal method isn't an especially effective form of ... control.

[winner69]

Moosie on another site says tsunami of trouble heading our way. Another poster over there said signs tightening of credit tightening here with deals falling over

Might affect margins on that cool Auckland developnent in due course

https://www.afr.com/real-estate/property-sales-ditched-as-crunch-credit-causes-auction-values-to-plunge-20180618-h11iip

[couta1]

Moosie on another site says tsunami of trouble heading our way. Another poster over there said signs tightening of credit tightening here with deals falling over

Might affect margins on that cool Auckland developnent in due course

https://www.afr.com/real-estate/property-sales-ditched-as-crunch-credit-causes-auction-values-to-plunge-20180618-h11iip With all due respect to Moosie, he tends to be a prophet of doom and gloom with an OTT application of TA analysis.

[Joshuatree]

Well worth reading

"Cautious property lenders are ditching deals at the last minute amid growing nervousness as the value of property sales plunges (http://www.afr.com/real-estate/vendors-forced-to-meet-market-as-banks-limit-buyers-access-to-mortgages-20180617-h11h6z) by more than 50 per cent since the market peak, analysis reveals."

[Beagle]

Ummm, can I ask the obvious, why are you guys referencing Australian articles when OCA do not trade in Australia ? Perhaps that's of some relevance in the Ryman thread ?
According to my client who is the GM of one of the major Australian owned real estate franchises the market is stable and well balanced in Auckland and rising in the vast majority of the rest of the country so I am sorry but I struggle to draw any meaningful link with those articles and its possible effect on OCA ?

[winner69]

Ummm, can I ask the obvious, why are you guys referencing Australian articles when OCA do not trade in Australia ? Perhaps that's of some relevance in the Ryman thread ?
According to my client who is the GM of one of the major Australian owned real estate franchises the market is stable and well balanced in Auckland and rising in the vast majority of the rest of the country so I am sorry but I struggle to draw any meaningful link with those articles and its possible effect on OCA ?

Forward looking ......from all accounts nz banks continue to tighten up on lending (and as one respected poster said on that other channel deals are falling over at the moment) ....will affect residential property market in due course....and possibly might impact margins on that cool Oceania project.

Prices might be ok but activity (number of sales) is still way down from a year or so ago

The AFR article was just a trigger to highlight a possible risk

Suppose applies to others in sector as well.

You did ask

[percy]

Interesting to note we recently sold our house to the first person who came through it.
House listed on a Wednesday,in the property book on the Thursday,buyer came through on the Thursday.
Wanted to make an offer on the Fiday,however we waited until after the first open home on the Sunday,before looking at any offers.
Accepted the buyer's offer on the Sunday.
Well presented home,top agent,top photos,top marketing,sensible price,meant quick sale.
Now have the money burning a big hole in my pocket.!!

[Beagle]

Forward looking ......from all accounts nz banks continue to tighten up on lending (and as one respected poster said on that other channel deals are falling over at the moment) ....will affect residential property market in due course....and possibly might impact margins on that cool Oceania project.

Prices might be ok but activity (number of sales) is still way down from a year or so ago

The AFR article was just a trigger to highlight a possible risk

Suppose applies to others in sector as well.

You did ask
I beg to differ mate. My thoughts are that the tightening of credit has been in the market for quite some time now, most especially in regard to deposit requirements.
https://www.reinz.co.nz/Media/Default/Statistic%20Documents/2018/Residential/May/REINZ%20Residential%20Press%20Release%20-%20May%202018.pdf I really don't see anything in here that's of concern either in respect to prices or volume and those stat's are the net effect of a tightening credit market that's existed for many many months now.

Nothing to worry about in my opinion. I hear just what Percy alluded too. People who are presenting their homes well and pricing them realistically are having little to no trouble selling them. Development funding is harder to get, I will grant you that but that simply means well funded companies are at a competitive advantage as compared to those that need to fund their activities from contributory mortgages at substaintially higher interest rates.

[warren]

[QUOTE=Beagle;718850]I beg to differ mate.

Umm. I agree 100% with you Beagle. And as I see it OCA Aged Healthcare with 3000 superb employees, huge demand and guaranteed Government cash flow/income is as good as it can get in hard times. While I well know the aged care income (in which OCA is a huge player) is hard earned and not, shall we say, flash and some say not so profitable, I love it to bits. I'm hoping by 2025 OCA will have 6000+ employees in Aged Care nursing with the current income ratios maintained across the income streams. Then we will have some business!! All that's then needed for sustained profitability is careful, exacting, honest leadership and to date they are proving it.

[Jantar]

....
Nothing to worry about in my opinion. I hear just what Percy alluded too. People who are presenting their homes well and pricing them realistically are having little to no trouble selling them. ..... I cannot believe the prices that are being asked, and getting, for houses. My wife and I have been looking at buying our retirement home, and almost all the properties we are looking at in our price range are not well presented and need a lot spent on maintenance. Instead we have decided to buy a section and build new. A better quality house that has everything we need, in a prime location and cheaper than buying an existing house. How does that work?

[Beagle]

Umm. I agree 100% with you Beagle. And as I see it OCA Aged Healthcare with 3000 superb employees, huge demand and guaranteed Government cash flow/income is as good as it can get in hard times. While I well know the aged care income (in which OCA is a huge player) is hard earned and not, shall we say, flash and some say not so profitable, I love it to bits. I'm hoping by 2025 OCA will have 6000+ employees in Aged Care nursing with the current income ratios maintained across the income streams. Then we will have some business!! All that's then needed for sustained profitability is careful, exacting, honest leadership and to date they are proving it.

Apart from being a cheap value play in this field the thing that really gives me the warm fuzzies about this company is their multi award winning second to none care standards. Sure there will always be the odd mistake as the people looking after our old folks are human just like the rest of us but overall their systems, procedures and standards appear to be second to none and it pleases me to be part owner of a company that really looks after our most vulnerable elderly folks. Ethical investing 101.

[Beagle]

I cannot believe the prices that are being asked, and getting, for houses. My wife and I have been looking at buying our retirement home, and almost all the properties we are looking at in our price range are not well presented and need a lot spent on maintenance. Instead we have decided to buy a section and build new. A better quality house that has everything we need, in a prime location and cheaper than buying an existing house. How does that work?

I think its very much location dependent. We have two sections nearby in Auckland where we live and can't sell them because it doesn't work. Building prices in Auckland have gone mad and its cheaper to buy an existing house for the average circa $850K - $900K than buy one of our sections and build a say 220 sq m house on it. Cheaper by about $200K but as you say if someone does that they get a brand new home designed exactly the way they want it. Mrs Beagle's experience dealing with potential buyers is the vast majority of people are too scared to build in Auckland at present, (well... too scared on a sloping Titirangi bush section anyway). If anyone's in the market for a very nice Titirangi section or two for about $400K each please PM me. We're highly motivated vendors.

[warren]

Easy explanation. If I gained 70 000 new customers, with cash, every single year I would put my prices up thru the roof too. Remember those new customers --------
1. Think $800 000+ is cheap for a house (you try Hong Kong, Singapore, Delhi, Shanghai)
2. Are completely out of the--- buy a section, hire a builder, build a NZ house, meet NZ rules/laws for at least 5 years maybe a lot longer.
3. This nation remains a migrant heaven, free health, old age pension for all, no CG., free education etc so she aint gonna slow down.

[winner69]

Stupid question - can the reported 'embedded value' go down seeing its only a snapshot at a particular time

[Beagle]

Stupid question - can the reported 'embedded value' go down seeing its only a snapshot at a particular time

Yes absolutely if the market overall falls on average right across the country, year on year from one balance date to the next but why would it at a national average level when you look at those REINZ national stat's I posted a link for ?

[Food4Thought]

Easy explanation. If I gained 70 000 new customers, with cash, every single year I would put my prices up thru the roof too. Remember those new customers --------
1. Think $800 000+ is cheap for a house (you try Hong Kong, Singapore, Delhi, Shanghai)
2. Are completely out of the--- buy a section, hire a builder, build a NZ house, meet NZ rules/laws for at least 5 years maybe a lot longer.
3. This nation remains a migrant heaven, free health, old age pension for all, no CG., free education etc so she aint gonna slow down.

Yes Warren. Totally agree. Frightening even in regard to the average kiwi. It's one tough market where a steady progress in a career use to ensure a more manageable path to get into the property market. Many people and some close friends are out of reach of ownership for their first buy. Even with years of work experience. .. After paying university and considerable increases in living costs. If they want to buy near their work, where they grew up, or made strong ties while studying... yes they could move to a rural Township. ... and isolate themselves ... or perhaps over the ditch.

And I agree with the statement of not keen to build etc until they have the knowledge and local experience.

... I keep thinking. Silver Tsunami. And those who can afford it will then also visit Australia when the winter months are not managable or suitable for their retirement plans. GIANT in the room. Privalaged retirement country... strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats.

[Xerof]

I do note someone that appears to want to sell, doesn't really - they keep moving the offer 2 steps higher than market.......pathetic capping attempt

haha, Henry Clayton, who was sitting behind the 1.11 offers at 1.12, has moved up to 1.13 behind the 1.12 now. Haha

[Lawstudent05]

haha, Henry Clayton, who was sitting behind the 1.11 offers at 1.12, has moved up to 1.13 behind the 1.12 now. Haha

Hi All, could someone give some logic behind the comment of a capping attempt? Just trying to understand what this means, logic says someone is slowly selling to keep it at a cap level? Whats the purpose of this?

1.11, all time high today, looking forward to seeing the FY results in the next month or so. My records show a 41% gain from IPO launch.

[warren]

Hi All, could someone give some logic behind the comment of a capping attempt? Just trying to understand what this means, logic says someone is slowly selling to keep it at a cap level? Whats the purpose of this?

1.11, all time high today, looking forward to seeing the FY results in the next month or so. My records show a 41% gain from IPO launch.

Hello LS ---Minor efforts to manipulate the price by someone with time to kill. Look it matters not a cent in my opinion because----------

Its a 2.50 share right now here is why ---
1. One couldn't believe the effort over a lifetime for me to gain a profit of 0.25 mill.
2. One wouldn't believe the effort to build my assets to 5 mill and here we have a very big business on track for near to
3. 100 million (unbelievable really ) profit shortly and assets of 1.1 billion---- geeeeeez when I think of my efforts compared to this I cringe but I was small time.
4. If times tighten OCA is sitting well with 3000 staff looking after the infirm who cannot go elsewhere and the mightiest fund in the nation paying up every month---- wow. I had debts paid to me in 6 months, some Never!!
5. If good times roll OCA is in heaven as people want and buy quality care suits etc etc
It depends on outstanding leadership, hard work and integrity and I very much like what I see --so far.

[trader_jackson]

Can we push to an all time high today?
Funny to think at $1.12 some say it would still be too cheap

[Blue Skies]

Crikey if OCA is on track to hopefully meet 8.42cps earnings, $2.50 share, would put them on a PE of almost 30. What am I missing? Who would buy new comer OCA at a PE of 29, when you could currently buy established excellent SUM at about half that (P.E.) or RYM ?

Disc hold both OCA @ .98 & SUM @ 4.88

[whatsup]

$1.13 yupee !

[Beagle]

Crikey if OCA is on track to hopefully meet 8.42cps earnings, $2.50 share, would put them on a PE of almost 30. What am I missing? Who would buy new comer OCA at a PE of 29, when you could currently buy established excellent SUM at about half that (P.E.) or RYM ?

Disc hold both OCA @ .98 & SUM @ 4.88


You're not missing anything. I'm also expecting $2.50 at some stage but I have what I think is a more realistic timeframe around that, about 5-6 years.

[tipsy]

No sellers at these levels, looks like everyones holding tight.

[Lawstudent05]

Anyone have a depth level handy?

Results must be out next month, but cant seem to find a date. I know the books closed on 31st May. Perhaps word is out, or am I just getting excited?

[winner69]

Can we push to an all time high today?
Funny to think at $1.12 some say it would still be too cheap

Sure did ...good eh

Your fine print statement - Seeing all in the sector rising and at or near all time highs its probably a case of OCA just doing the rising tide trick which suggests OCA remains fairly valued relative to its peers.....ie not cheap.

Don’t forget that relative PEs (either to peers or to the market) often don’t change.

[winner69]

Anyone have a depth level handy?

Results must be out next month, but cant seem to find a date. I know the books closed on 31st May. Perhaps word is out, or am I just getting excited?

Just getting excited

Announcement probably near end of July, last year was the 27th

Don’t think they’ve specified a date for this year

[trader_jackson]

Sure did ...good eh

Your fine print statement - Seeing all in the sector rising and at or near all time highs its probably a case of OCA just doing the rising tide trick which suggests OCA remains fairly valued relative to its peers.....ie not cheap.

Don’t forget that relative PEs (either to peers or to the market) often don’t change.

Great stuff for sure... but then again, not all in the sector are 8 ish percent in the past month, in fact the old dog hasn't moved in the past month
You must be saying arvida is getting relatively cheaper?

[winner69]

Great stuff for sure... but then again, not all in the sector are 8 ish percent in the past month, in fact the old dog hasn't moved in the past month
You must be saying arvida is getting relatively cheaper?

Hope it will be 125 by announcement time ..has stretched my patience the last month

Hope the tide keeps rising

Might believe you then ...it really was cheap as

[couta1]

Hope it will be 125 by announcement time ..has stretched my patience the last month

Hope the tide keeps rising

Might believe you then ...it really was cheap as Should be around $1.20ish for sure according to the Couta theorum, looks like SUM other one is currently overvalued. Take your pick between 1 SUM share or 6.9 OCA shares, your choice.

[Beagle]

Should be around $1.20ish for sure according to the Couta theorum, looks like SUM other one is currently overvalued. Take your pick between 1 SUM share or 6.9 OCA shares, your choice.


Apparently the N.Z. Govt are spending $2m on a rat eradication program on the Auckland Islands over the next few years. Beagle's love chasing rats and I could get paid for it too :) (For those that don't know I suggested I might immigrate down there if the Couta1 relativity theorem comes into full effect again) That's 1 Rym = 2 SUM = 10 OCA.

[winner69]

Apparently the N.Z. Govt are spending $2m on a rat eradication program on the Auckland Islands over the next few years. Beagle's love chasing rats and I could get paid for it too :) (For those that don't know I suggested I might immigrate down there if the Couta1 relativity theorem comes into full effect again) That's 1 Rym = 2 SUM = 10 OCA.

...might be sooner than you think

[janner]

Apparently the N.Z. Govt are spending $2m on a rat eradication program on the Auckland Islands over the next few years. Beagle's love chasing rats and I could get paid for it too :) (For those that don't know I suggested I might immigrate down there if the Couta1 relativity theorem comes into full effect again) That's 1 Rym = 2 SUM = 10 OCA.

Get ready to pack those bags ..:-)))))

[winner69]

Get ready to pack those bags ..:-)))))

He’ll suffer big time .....bit cold down that way

One of the islands is called DISAPPOINTMENT ISLAND

Maybe that’s where he’s headed

I won’t be visiting

[Beagle]

Don't need to travel down there to find disappointment island...right outside my kennel this morning feels like 42 below.

Might have to come up with SUM new strategy that avoids the possibility of being disappointed. I think SUM, OCA and RYM should all do very well for the foreseeable future.

SUM silly old mutt was pontificating about 10 year returns with compounding growth on here a while back, seems like a good idea to avoid disappointment :)

[dabsman]

Don't need to travel down there to find disappointment island...right outside my kennel this morning feels like 42 below.

Might have to come up with SUM new strategy that avoids the possibility of being disappointed. I think SUM, OCA and RYM should all do very well for the foreseeable future.

SUM silly old mutt was pontificating about 10 year returns with compounding growth on here a while back, seems like a good idea to avoid disappointment :)

I'd love to have 42 below just outside my door - mmmm feijoa vodka strait up chilled from the cold weather...

[peat]

New highs are always good of course but Volume is a concern. It should be a bit greater to confirm whatever signals one can read from the tea leaves on this chart. Its okay but this stock has done a lot better in the past. Are all the institutions full of the stuff already.?


Off topic

Yeh I'm really surprised at how cold it is and I'm trying not to blame Whanganui coz it would seem to me everywhere is below average temp wise this season.

I have always had a strange fascination with those low lying islands in the Fearful 50's and have contemplated one of those heritage trips down there but havent actually done it so far.
I love Below 42 vodka too, but not with the feijoa lol. Partner likes that - with apple juice.
Aargh a bit early for vodkas. Does the cold allow them to be for medicinal purposes?? :p

[couta1]

With the result around a month away there is plenty of time for the SP to climb a bit higher yet.

[dabsman]

I've got about 50k coming at the end of the week. Thought I'd dump it into OCA. Would you guys buy in over a few weeks up to announcement or buy some and sit back for the results? I was expecting these funds about a month ago and would have bought around $1... oh well can't complain.

[peat]

here are two charts to support previous post of mine
1/ Since listing , vs the NZX50 showing volume dwindling
9767

2/last few months shown with candles, short term moving avg's rising ,and rsi overbought
Even more clear how volume is peatering out.
9766

[winner69]

I've got about 50k coming at the end of the week. Thought I'd dump it into OCA. Would you guys buy in over a few weeks up to announcement or buy some and sit back for the results? I was expecting these funds about a month ago and would have bought around $1... oh well can't complain.

Look mate - almost unaminous opinion on here that OCA is a steal...and the reasons they give are compelling

So don’t dilly dally around ...if you’re convinced buy today else you’ll miss out on the next 10% and the rest. It’ll never be cheaper. No harm in following the mob is there?

And the market needs your 50k to boost it along.

Disc; this is not financial advise

[dabsman]

Disc; this is not financial advise

That made me laugh

[winner69]

here are two charts to support previous post of mine
1/ Since listing , vs the NZX50 showing volume dwindling
9767

2/last few months shown with candles, short term moving avg's rising ,and rsi overbought
Even more clear how volume is peatering out.
9766

You beginning to depress me peat

Last six months comparison with NZX50 shows about equal performance ...hmmm

[couta1]

I've got about 50k coming at the end of the week. Thought I'd dump it into OCA. Would you guys buy in over a few weeks up to announcement or buy some and sit back for the results? I was expecting these funds about a month ago and would have bought around $1... oh well can't complain. How long is a piece of string? It will probably rise a bit more leading into the result with the odd wee dip included, it could drop below current price after the result or not? Maybe you shouldn't be too worried exactly when you buy, your going to double your money over the next 2-3 years IMO.

[winner69]

That made me laugh

Just that some on here say we should not give financial advise

Anyway .....what you going to do or have you just bought more?

Might become you biggest holding after the ostriches

[dabsman]

Just that some on here say we should not give financial advise

Anyway .....what you going to do or have you just bought more?

Might become you biggest holding after the ostriches

Money thru Friday so I'll buy then. I think the long term view removes any worry about buying a few cents higher or lower in the next few weeks

[peat]

You beginning to depress me peat

Last six months comparison with NZX50 shows about equal performance ...hmmm

but another period of outperformance has just commenced and you wouldnt want to miss out on that would you winner
stocks cant out perform all ​the time.

[Lawstudent05]

$1.14, is this people wanting to hold before announcement.

[whatsup]

$1.14 new all time high and building .

[Lawstudent05]

Anyone have a depth view?

[kerryo]

Anyone have a depth view?

Here you go.


9780

[Food4Thought]

Anyone have a depth view?
9781 Try that?

[winner69]

Here you go.


9780

Wow ...look at all those wishful thinking buyers who’ve missed the boat and now need to pay more to join the party

Need to be in well before the announcement ....that way you get the boost due to expectations of a good result ...then boosted when they say F19 is going to be a boomer of a year.

[Food4Thought]

[QUOTE=kerryo;720339]Here you go.


Must have been onto that at the same time as you Kerryo. Just wasn't as quick to post :)

[Food4Thought]

[QUOTE=kerryo;720339]Here you go.

Quick question Kerryo. Which service are you using? I use ASB and it is not as detailed as your depth break down information.

[kerryo]

[QUOTE=kerryo;720339]Here you go.

Quick question Kerryo. Which service are you using? I use ASB and it is not as detailed as your depth break down information.

ANZ Securities. :)

[oldtech]

Very interesting to see the recent trades - I also use ASB.

[whatsup]

$1.14 new all time high and building .

Decent trades gone through 250 and 500K lots, off market >

[Food4Thought]

Decent trades gone through 250 and 500K lots, off market >

Yowza, that is a quick little whip snap crackle and pop jump in numbers traded... those are numbers for making a trading income, perhaps some investors are currently "triggered"... Seen this play out a few times before. This is exciting to see... (Always optimistic when in it of course)

Also interesting to note, my refresh rate seems to be a lot slower for OCA atm than normal. Could be a number of reasons, yet I would guess there is a bit of watching going on right now ;)

[limmy]

I think the Depth view presented by kerryo is better because it has the "recent trades" information. Is this from ANZ securities ?

[couta1]

Decent trades gone through 250 and 500K lots, off market > I wonder who's selling, hopefully Insto and not directors or management.

[kerryo]

Yes ANZ Securities limmy.

[limmy]

Thanks kerryo. I reckon ASB securities should have the same information on display.


Yes ANZ Securities limmy.

[Beagle]

Onward and upward to a new all time high. Looking forward to the annual result later this month, it should be a real cracker !!

[Hectorplains]

Onward and upward to a new all time high. Looking forward to the annual result later this month, it should be a real cracker !!

Should go okay.

I'd worry more about the escrow shares flooding the market. It might pay to keep an eye on pay negotiations in the wider sector too.

[Baa_Baa]

Should go okay.

I'd worry more about the escrow shares flooding the market. It might pay to keep an eye on pay negotiations in the wider sector too.

Thank goodness for a clear head.

Short term looks stable but eyes on the back-story, thanks for the post, temper the bulls who reckon some magic ratio determines how this sector should price itself. I reckon this is max valued and dissappoiment lurks, not just here but for the sector, but this is the canary in the coal mine. Just a matter of time before the PC police decide super profits are better curbed or directed elsewhere than shareholders pockets.

Be nimble, be quick. Jack has a trading strategy, he'll be quick - to respond. Either way it unfolds.

[Blue Skies]

I've never forgotten this advice from a very wise man, "the market is both over pessimistic & over optimistic." Standing on a gain of 18% in a couple of weeks on no new info, have to wonder how much further it can go & how much optimism already built into the price, esp with the pending release of those pesky escrow shares. Was going to top up a few more today & lots to recommend it, but ...

[Lawstudent05]

I've never forgotten this advice from a very wise man, "the market is both over pessimistic & over optimistic." Standing on a gain of 18% in a couple of weeks on no new info, have to wonder how much further it can go & how much optimism already built into the price, esp with the pending release of those pesky escrow shares. Was going to top up a few more today & lots to recommend it, but ...

Well said.

As a side, how do people know it is escrow shares being sold?

[Beagle]

Any placement of escrow shares in due course will represent an excellent opportunity to double down in my opinion. I for one am ready to pounce.
(Does a hound ever really pounce or is this really the domain of cats ?)

[macduffy]

Well said.

As a side, how do people know it is escrow shares being sold?

If, as in this case, it would be selling down from a Substantial Shareholding, as defined, there would need to be notice to that effect, at least after the event. Regrettably, some notifications are a bit slow to appear.

[Xerof]

It is not escrow shares being sold. May 2018 accounts have not been released yet.

Macca will not, repeat, will not, dump their shares into the retail market. They are not stupid (at least as far as I can tell)

The last trade today was a buy of ~94k at 114. There 'appear' to be more buyers than sellers.

Stick with the trend until the trend changes.

What is the trend?

I'm with the beagle - any placement of escrow shares that I can get my hands on I will snaffle for the long term.

[couta1]

It is not escrow shares being sold. May 2018 accounts have not been released yet.

Macca will not, repeat, will not, dump their shares into the retail market. They are not stupid (at least as far as I can tell)

The last trade today was a buy of ~94k at 114. There 'appear' to be more buyers than sellers.

Stick with the trend until the trend changes.

What is the trend?

I'm with the beagle - any placement of escrow shares that I can get my hands on I will snaffle for the long term. They wouldn't be able to dump them into the retail market, too many of them, they will go to insto's in the main at a discount to the prevailing market price at the time. PS-Price looks pretty well topped but a cent or two more may be squeezed out yet, possibly.

[WayOverTheHill]

9783

I'm with Couta1

expecting the SP to take a breather shortly

[Food4Thought]

9783

I'm with Couta1

expecting the SP to take a breather shortly

I agree with that as well. The SP has had a good increase lately. Can also speculate on the $1.20 mark getting hit.

Makes for a exciting time to hypothesize the up and coming results. Results to be released on Thursday morning of 26 July 2018.

Disc. Holding. Very happy

[Beagle]

Most recent example of SP action was Arvida went up 10 cents in the two weeks before the annual result...just saying.

[trader_jackson]

Most recent example of SP action was Arvida went up 10 cents in the two weeks before the annual result...just saying.

Then went up even further on the strong annual result released
Only to fall back down a day ish later and never really budge much again

[warren]

Hello TJ.
Umm yes correct I agree. But lets look realistically at OCA. Tracking for 100 mill net profit (geeez) Tracking for 1 bill + in assets (geeez ).
Shares issued approx 240 mill on market and 250 mill for Macquare . (Chicken feed share totals). Total debt on the business (OCA) with the above form-line not much !!!
Staff approx 3000---- This is a big powerful and already successful business----No wonder they (Ma) know their share is worth 2.50 and take it from me they DO know it.

[couta1]

9783

I'm with Couta1

expecting the SP to take a breather shortly She's topped alright, will be interesting to see if it has another run up in a week or so before the result.

[winner69]

Previously 111 was strong resistance.

They say what was resistance when broken becomes a strong support level ...we don’t want to see 110 or below again do we

Let’s hope so eh ...or else TA goes out the window.

[Jerry]

Are there enough traders on the NZX for TA to really work on a statistical basis?

[BlackPeter]

Are there enough traders on the NZX for TA to really work on a statistical basis?

TA is based on statistics ... and statistics (like mathematics it is a subset of) always works ... it is just that with smaller numbers the margin of error increases.

What you probably want to ask is whether there are enough trades on the NZX to keep the margin of error within sensible bounds? Now, this depends on the individual share you are looking at and as well on the error margin you are happy to accept.

If you have 1000 uncorrelated trades a day for one particular share (bot trades are frequently correlated) the margin of error for statistical TA predictions would be around +/-3%. If you have only 100 trades a day the margin of error would be +/-10%. You need to decide yourself whether this margin of error (this is on top of the likelihood which TA gives you) is good enough for you.

Obviously - TA is not just pure statistics ... it is as well to a degree a self full filling prophecy (remember - the share market is a level 2 chaotic system - meaning traders are changing their and with that the systems behavior dependent on their knowledge about the system), which in my view will reduce the margin of error for smaller numbers (e.g. people will still panic if the SP falls through the MA200 - even if it is just based on a small number of trades).

Based on personal experience I'd say that TA on the NZX clearly does add value, but probably more so for the more liquid stocks ...

[limmy]

TA is based on statistics ... and statistics (like mathematics it is a subset of) always works ... it is just that with smaller numbers the margin of error increases.

What you probably want to ask is whether there are enough trades on the NZX to keep the margin of error within sensible bounds? Now, this depends on the individual share you are looking at and as well on the error margin you are happy to accept.

If you have 1000 uncorrelated trades a day for one particular share (bot trades are frequently correlated) the margin of error for statistical TA predictions would be around +/-3%. If you have only 100 trades a day the margin of error would be +/-10%. You need to decide yourself whether this margin of error (this is on top of the likelihood which TA gives you) is good enough for you.

Obviously - TA is not just pure statistics ... it is as well to a degree a self full filling prophecy (remember - the share market is a level 2 chaotic system - meaning traders are changing their and with that the systems behavior dependent on their knowledge about the system), which in my view will reduce the margin of error for smaller numbers (e.g. people will still panic if the SP falls through the MA200 - even if it is just based on a small number of trades).

Based on personal experience I'd say that TA on the NZX clearly does add value, but probably more so for the more liquid stocks ...

Excellent response, BP.

[Jerry]

A quiet day on the exchange perhaps, but only 159 trades on OCA; 88 on GMT; 17 on ARV today. Some of the bigger firms had in the hundreds, but very few, which was why I wondered at the value of TA. I can see the point on the US market or ASX where there are a statistically adequate number of trades, but for most of ours, I am cautious of its relevance. And yes, I agree, if there is general acceptance of its predictive value, self-fulfilling to a certain extent.
Thank you, BP, for the figures.

[Beagle]

Two weeks to go till the result. Market is saying the result will make guidance of underlying EPS of 8.42 cps but only just. Hope the market is wrong but I am in this for the long haul and believe the care service standard they provide is first rate and the shares are valued based on pretty attractive metrics for this sector.

[Lawstudent05]

Hi Beagle,

Would it be possible for you to show how the market values at 8.42cps, is the earning per share calculation? If so what are the numbers drawing into this, and where in the financial statements are they found?

[Beagle]

Hi Beagle,

Would it be possible for you to show how the market values at 8.42cps, is the earning per share calculation? If so what are the numbers drawing into this, and where in the financial statements are they found?

Too sick with a cold at the moment to go digging too far mate but I can tell you the IPO forecast was for underlying EPS of 8.42 cps, (going off memory). This puts OCA on a historical PE of 13.2 if they make their forecast. Forward PE for FY19 maybe 11.5 and gross dividend yield about 5.5% Its these somewhat speculative metrics I am guessing at for the current year which has driven my modest investment position.

[winner69]

Hi Beagle,

Would it be possible for you to show how the market values at 8.42cps, is the earning per share calculation? If so what are the numbers drawing into this, and where in the financial statements are they found?

To save Beagle finding it

https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/oca.asx-3A469771/ page 7 of this you will find a number $51.4m

Page 7 has a $51.4m number

Oceania said a month or so they were on track to met IPO forecasts ......so result should be pretty close to that

So $51.4m divided by 610.4 million shares is an eps of 8.43 cents ...NOTE THIS IS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT FROM BEAGLES NUMBERS

[Beagle]

To save Beagle finding it



Onhttps://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/oca.asx-3A469771/ page 7 of this you will find a number $51.4m


Oceania said a month or so they were on track to met IPO forecasts ......so result should be pretty close to that

So $51.4m divided by 610.4 million shares is an eps of 8.43 cents ...NOTE THIS IS SLIGHTLY DIFFETENT FROM BEAGLES NUMBERS

LOL its worth heaps more then :D Old sick dog's memory not too bad after all.

[warren]

LOL its worth heaps more then :D Old sick dog's memory not too bad after all.

Ryman Healthcare directors are asking shareholders for a rise in the pool of fees from $828,000 paid last year to $985,000 - a proposal that has shocked a shareholder concerned about income inequality.
Divided up, the eight directors would receive about $110,000 each while the chairman generally receives twice that amount.
Ryman directors have other jobs or directorships - for example, Jo Appleyard is a practising lawyer, and chairman Dr David Kerr has seven other directorships.
But their pay is modest compared with Fonterra directors who were given rises this year to $175,000 each, with $430,00 for the chairman John Wilson, from $165,000 and $405,000 previously.

[Ggcc]

Ryman Healthcare directors are asking shareholders for a rise in the pool of fees from $828,000 paid last year to $985,000 - a proposal that has shocked a shareholder concerned about income inequality.
Divided up, the eight directors would receive about $110,000 each while the chairman generally receives twice that amount.
Ryman directors have other jobs or directorships - for example, Jo Appleyard is a practising lawyer, and chairman Dr David Kerr has seven other directorships.
But their pay is modest compared with Fonterra directors who were given rises this year to $175,000 each, with $430,00 for the chairman John Wilson, from $165,000 and $405,000 previously.
It really will never change unless shareholders change it. I agree that it is a lot and some directors don’t deserve their pay. Look at Fonterra for that prime example.

[warren]

It really will never change unless shareholders change it. I agree that it is a lot and some directors don’t deserve their pay. Look at Fonterra for that prime example.

Ummm --Interesting point Ggcc. I have very firm views on Directors fees. Most "Directors ' have never built a company of their own otherwise they would run their own company's. I am a total believer in NO Director fees but parcels of shares or options thereof and let the Directors prove themselves. If they are good their share portions will reward them handsomely so no need for fees at all. That's Exactly what Steve Jobs (Now there is an owner/ director !) did when he returned to an almost bust Apple, not even a wage.
About 500 "Directors" of NZ Finance Company's proved to be quite Valueless over recent years---- in fact they had a minus dollar Value but at least 6 or 7 went to jail.
OCA----Ability, Energy, Persistence, Honesty, Vision--- and decades experience in the business??

[Beagle]

RYM's SP has risen by a factor of 44 times since listing in 1999. Some would argue that the directors have created tremendous value for shareholders and have well and truly earned their fees over the years and I would agree 100%. Frankly I don't know how anyone else could realistically take an opposing position with a straight face. Even the new directors fee pool looks quite reasonable to me considering its market capitalization of six billion dollars.

Early days for OCA directors in terms of proving their worth for shareholders but they have plenty of skin in the game and they look to be a board with some very good commercial experience. This augers very well for the future in my opinion.

[Ggcc]

RYM's SP has risen by a factor of 44 times since listing in 1999. Some would argue that the directors have created tremendous value for shareholders and have well and truly earned their fees over the years and I would agree 100%. Frankly I don't know how anyone else could realistically take an opposing position with a straight face. Even the new directors fee pool looks quite reasonable to me considering its market capitalization of six billion dollars.

Early days for OCA directors in terms of proving their worth for shareholders but they have plenty of skin in the game and they look to be a board with some very good commercial experience. This augers very well for the future in my opinion.

I would like to see a cap on the amount of directorships someone is allowed to hold. I don’t feel company directors can offer a business something special, holding seven different directorships and a full-time job, while getting paid what they do when the companies sp goes backwards. Just my thought and would love to see if others agree.

[BlackPeter]

I would like to see a cap on the amount of directorships someone is allowed to hold. I don’t feel company directors can offer a business something special, holding seven different directorships and a full-time job, while getting paid what they do when the companies sp goes backwards. Just my thought and would love to see if others agree.

You just need to convince your fellow shareholders and you have all the power to make that happen for any company you hold ;);

FWIW - I do agree in principle and typically vote against any director with more than 4 other positions (i.e. 5 all together). So far however it appears I am in the minority ;);

[Onion]

You just need to convince your fellow shareholders and you have all the power to make that happen for any company you hold ;);

FWIW - I do agree in principle and typically vote against any director with more than 4 other positions (i.e. 5 all together). So far however it appears I am in the minority ;);

The Shareholders Association consistently comments on the reappointment of directors where they hold many directorships. Give your proxy votes to them and they may start getting boards to listen.

[Jerry]

Agree with you both, Onion and BP.

[warren]

RYM's SP has risen by a factor of 44 times since listing in 1999. Some would argue that the directors have created tremendous value for shareholders and have well and truly earned their fees over the years and I would agree 100%. Frankly I don't know how anyone else could realistically take an opposing position with a straight face. Even the new directors fee pool looks quite reasonable to me considering its market capitalization of six billion dollars.

Early days for OCA directors in terms of proving their worth for shareholders but they have plenty of skin in the game and they look to be a board with some very good commercial experience. This augers very well for the future in my opinion.

Agreed ---- But point out the following Companies who, along with Pike River Coal LTD, all had "Directors" and I would rather those "Directors" took share options to showcase their incredible skills and wealth creation rather than cash that is always so hard to come by (well it always has been for me).

Between May 2006 and the end of 2012 there were sixty-seven finance company collapses in New Zealand; including companies entering into liquidation, receivership or moratoria. An inquiry by the New Zealand Parliament estimated losses at over $3 billion that affected between 150,000 and 200,000 depositors. The most high-profile collapses were South Canterbury Finance, Hanover Finance and Bridgecorp Holdings.

[stoploss]

Agreed ---- But point out the following Companies who, along with Pike River Coal LTD, all had "Directors" and I would rather those "Directors" took share options to showcase their incredible skills and wealth creation rather than cash that is always so hard to come by (well it always has been for me).

Between May 2006 and the end of 2012 there were sixty-seven finance company collapses in New Zealand; including companies entering into liquidation, receivership or moratoria. An inquiry by the New Zealand Parliament estimated losses at over $3 billion that affected between 150,000 and 200,000 depositors. The most high-profile collapses were South Canterbury Finance, Hanover Finance and Bridgecorp Holdings.
Too true and who was in power when it all kicked off and did very little to protect all the investors ....

[dobby41]

Too true and who was in power when it all kicked off and did very little to protect all the investors ....

I'm not sure that the Govt should be 'protecting' shareholders.
But I suppose that depends on what you mean by 'protecting'.
Certainly the Govt should put in place rules that allow the shareholders to have a fair deal and not place in the Wild West.

[macduffy]

Isn't it interesting how discussion can stray from the thread - Oceania Group - to Ryman's directors' fees; the level of directors' fees in general; finance company collapses; Pike River Mining disaster; government "protection" of investors. I'm sure that all these topics have their own threads - let's not lumber discussion of OCA with them.
;)

[Ggcc]

Just another article about retirement villages

https://www.noted.co.nz/money/property/cost-of-living-in-a-retirement-village/

[Blue Skies]

Really wanted some more OCA & happy to top up this morning. Plenty of depth on the buy side at these levels & although it may drop a cent or two, imho think the long term outlook is so positive & solid, was afraid of looking back in 12 months time & kicking myself for worrying about a few cents ( missed out on topping up with SUM more, just before it shot up).
On a completely unrelated matter to OCA, bumped into one of the OCA staff supervisors on Friday & as always given half a chance, took the opportunity to have a decent chat & get some direct feedback. He was exactly the sort you want, deeply committed to (would go the extra mile) & incredibly proud & enthusiastic about the company he works for, the standard of care for the residents, the villages & the awards they have won. Only one staff member obviously, but really impressive & hopefully indicative of the company culture & why they are winning awards, building a great reputation & aiming to be the best in their field.
NB DYOR

[limmy]

That's good to know however, even if it's just one staff member. I'm invested in RYM, MET and SUM and I'm considering whether to buy some OCA as well. Thanks for the info, Blue Skies.
Really wanted some more OCA & happy to top up this morning. Plenty of depth on the buy side at these levels & although it may drop a cent or two, imho think the long term outlook is so positive & solid, was afraid of looking back in 12 months time & kicking myself for worrying about a few cents ( missed out on topping up with SUM more, just before it shot up).
On a completely unrelated matter to OCA, bumped into one of the OCA staff supervisors on Friday & as always given half a chance, took the opportunity to have a decent chat & get some direct feedback. He was exactly the sort you want, deeply committed to (would go the extra mile) & incredibly proud & enthusiastic about the company he works for, the standard of care for the residents, the villages & the awards they have won. Only one staff member obviously, but really impressive & hopefully indicative of the company culture & why they are winning awards, building a great reputation & aiming to be the best in their field.
NB DYOR

[winner69]

Good start to day with the share price up and I thought we were getting the upward momentum going again


But a bummer of a day in the end


Hope tomorrow will be better

[trader_jackson]

Good start to day with the share price up and I thought we were getting the upward momentum going again


But a bummer of a day in the end


Hope tomorrow will be better

Not worried about tomorrow, or the next... in 10 days from now the share price is going to start up, and then continue up throughout the day... some say we could be witnessing the last days of OCA under $1.20.

No worries
What is certain is ARV continuing to trade the cheapest and be priced like a dog, despite increasing signs it will grow EPS faster over the coming years than companies sounding similar to the movie title narnia.

[couta1]

Good start to day with the share price up and I thought we were getting the upward momentum going again


But a bummer of a day in the end


Hope tomorrow will be better No mate, not a bummer end to the day, I bought those 1722 shares at close at $1.11.PS-On tough days, scraps are good.

[Xerof]

It's those naughty Bots, winner, painting the wrong picture with tiddly sells, to give us the impression it's more offered than bid. NOT TRUE.

Geez, even got Couta queue-jumping for scraps in the end of day auction, so it's definitely NOT TRUE.:)

[Joshuatree]

Good strategy tho, manifesting it down to ones buy price:t_up: i want more too.

[Maverick]

I`m not one for wasting time on conspiracy theories but this OCA share has been great to watch when it bounced between 98.-.99 for 2 months and now the last few days. The WAP makes it 1.12 all day long . But somehow a dribble of micro trades at $1.11 makes the price appear most of the day at $1.11 ... then BOOM!. Out of nowhere $450K trade off market. Me thinks some broker somewhere is transferring shares from his retail clients to himself (or his chummy mates) doing a deal at apparent market price of $1.11. While WE know it should be $1.12.
See what a waste of time that was thinking about.... all will be revealed next Thursday.

[Maverick]

There we go again, SP goes back down to $1.11 on almost a nil trade , followed by and off market trade of another $450 k ....if I should mysteriously die in my sleep tonight make sure its reported as a suspicious death.

[Joshuatree]

The day will come when it will be untenable for us little investors, we will become extinct and the soph bots and rich powerful orgs behind them will rule.Even now the odds are steepening against us whitebait. I canoe'd down a stream once past all the whitebaiter's holding their single nets. At the mouth into the harbour where there was no access by foot or car i saw a net stretched across the main current taking everything. Feels like that is coming,unscrupulous.

[RTM]

I`m not one for wasting time on conspiracy theories but this OCA share has been great to watch when it bounced between 98.-.99 for 2 months and now the last few days. The WAP makes it 1.12 all day long . But somehow a dribble of micro trades at $1.11 makes the price appear most of the day at $1.11 ... then BOOM!. Out of nowhere $450K trade off market. Me thinks some broker somewhere is transferring shares from his retail clients to himself (or his chummy mates) doing a deal at apparent market price of $1.11. While WE know it should be $1.12.
See what a waste of time that was thinking about.... all will be revealed next Thursday.

I don’t like the off-market movements either Maverick....but on my ANZ screen they are showing at 112c. So that seems ok ? Or am I not understanding correctly.

[Maverick]

I`m actually not too bothered by the "big guys" playing their game, gaining a small percentage where they can. You and I have the huge advantages of being small and we don't have to answer to anyone which gives us autonomy to take quick action.
I like your analogy of the whitebait getting shafted. That might well apply to the rank and file "mum and dad" population but I reckon just about everyone on this forum is far more likely to be thinking quite nicely for themselves and definitely not swimming in the school.

[Xerof]

The day will come when it will be untenable for us little investors, we will become extinct and the soph bots and rich powerful orgs behind them will rule.Even now the odds are steepening against us whitebait. I canoe'd down a stream once past all the whitebaiter's holding their single nets. At the mouth into the harbour where there was no access by foot or car i saw a net stretched across the main current taking everything. Feels like that is coming,unscrupulous.

We're just about there already mate, IMO. I think all we can do is take our positions, and then check the price every 3 or 6 months. If the FA is OK, then commonsense will eventually prevail, despite the antics of these quants, and/or the funds that want to own the whole shebang, after driving the SP towards zero. I only really look at the opening and closing auctions these days, again, only for a bit of a laugh

[Blue Skies]

Just curious re the large trades referred to at $1.11 ? ANZ (thanks RTM) & also Stocknessmonster show 3 large off market trades $423,000, $336,000 & $84,000 went through after 4pm yesterday at $1.12.

Sorry if this a stupid question but were these additional to the 2 large off market trades referred to in discussion or why are they showing at $1.12?

Agreed, looking at yesterday's trading pattern & buy order demand, how on earth would such substantial trades go through at $1.11 ?

Appreciate anyones clarification on this.

[King1212]

Sold out couple months ago as focusing on finishing my new build. Now all sorted and got back in. Looking forward for next week result!!

[winner69]

So this week is the defining week

Doesn’t look like much buying leading in to the result announcement unless punters leaving it the last moment

Of course the share price will boom post announcement ..Warren says on track for $100m ..that’s a heck a lot of money

[dabsman]

It seems very quiet. I've been accumulating a bit the last week or two. Tipped some more into HBL as well. These are the only 2 "cheap" shares I can see at present. Might get a bit more OCA this week. When OCA hits $1.30 it will be my biggest holding

[Lawstudent05]

Whats the EBIT or key KPIs target they are looking to hit from FY Results to boost SP?

[trader_jackson]

Underlying profit of 50.6m (up from 34.0 in FY17)
Underlying EPS of 8.3c
2nd half DPS of 2.5c

Underlying EBITDA of 61.4 (up from 37.0 in FY17)

That is basically why forsyth reckon anyway... and they only get a 12 month target price of $1.07 so really OCA needs to beat those numbers to trade at these elevated levels.
Maybe Oceania is no longer the cheap stock it use to be...

[Food4Thought]

I think OCA is flying under the radar for many potential investors. Great to be in it early. It sure is a long term game and the short term is getting exciting with anticipation. A few positive news articles in the near future / marketing campaign after good results may also help out the SP. Then there is the winter seasonal depression on the NZX... stuck inside, over analyzing things that may happen or may not... can't wait to see OCA sp in a few summers time.

[Beagle]

Looks like the market is saying they will only "meet" forecast guidance of 8.43 cps underlying profit. If they make that guidance that puts them on a trailing PE of 13.1.
Maybe that's where its at until they can demonstrate more growth and get some more runs on the board ?

[Nasi Goreng]

PE of 13.1 and NTA of $0.80. Not many like that around...

[Beagle]

I think adjusted NTA is closer to $1 but we'll see later this week. I agree those are pretty sensible metrics and make for a good value play in this fast growing sector.

[trader_jackson]

I think adjusted NTA is closer to $1 but we'll see later this week. I agree those are pretty sensible metrics and make for a good value play in this fast growing sector.

Hard to say, but there is another listed operator (you know the one - its the dog) which has provided consistent underlying EPS growth since listing in December 2014, and is trading at a much cheaper NTA (1.1x vs OCA at 1.3x) and a similar underlying PE... that same company had the second highest of its care facilities at the maximum four year DHB accreditation in the sector (second only to RYM - aka in front of OCA) and average portfolio occupancy was 96% (the wider sector average, and OCA's, is 88%)... and then you look at that comapny's share price and see it is about the same price as it was last year (despite being valued cheaper on almost all ratios, having a better track record, no share price overhang, better accreditation, better operational efficiency and higher occupancy...)


I am now worried my OCA investment isn't going anywhere over the next 12 months... bit like my other investment in that dog over the previous 12 months... ah well, like that one, worst case I'll just have to be happy with the great dividend yield.

[Beagle]

Hard to say, but there is another listed operator (you know the one - its the dog) which has provided consistent underlying EPS growth since listing in December 2014, and is trading at a much cheaper NTA (1.1x vs OCA at 1.3x) and a similar underlying PE... that same company had the second highest of its care facilities at the maximum four year DHB accreditation in the sector (second only to RYM - aka in front of OCA) and average portfolio occupancy was 96% (the wider sector average, and OCA's, is 88%)... and then you look at that comapny's share price and see it is about the same price as it was last year (despite being valued cheaper on almost all ratios, having a better track record, no share price overhang, better accreditation, better operational efficiency and higher occupancy...)


I am now worried my OCA investment isn't going anywhere over the next 12 months... bit like my other investment in that dog over the previous 12 months... ah well, like that one, worst case I'll just have to be happy with the great dividend yield.

You make a pretty sound case. For what its worth this hound has refrained from referring to Arvida as a dog for quite SUM time now. I think you'll find that OCA's care occupancy is currently being affected by units held over for redevelopment as care suites. I think both these more care intensive operations are more susceptible to cost pressure through caregiver wage relativity increases over the next few years than SUM others but as you say the consolation with their model's is the dividend yield. Looking forward to seeing some more detail on how OCA's getting on later this week.

Overhang is the elephant in the room , couldn't agree more on that point.

[trader_jackson]

You make a pretty sound case. For what its worth this hound has refrained from referring to Arvida as a dog for quite SUM time now. I think you'll find that OCA's care occupancy is currently being affected by units held over for redevelopment as care suites. I think both these more care intensive operations are more susceptible to cost pressure through caregiver wage relativity increases over the next few years than SUM others but as you say the consolation with their model's is the dividend yield. Looking forward to seeing some more detail on how OCA's getting on later this week.

Overhang is the elephant in the room , couldn't agree more on that point.

I too am looking forward to seeing how OCA is going - particularly on the outlook as this seems a bit unclear (bit like how ARV started I suppose). We pretty much know FY18 results are going to be at least what was in the PDS... we know less of what is going to happen in the future... For example, forsyth even reckon EPS is going to go down for OCA in FY19.
Some comment on Macquarie's intentions would also be interesting to hear, ideally sooner rather than later.


I remember on the 28th of april 2016 prior to market open when ARV released a note mentioning that less than 1% of the shares on issue were to be sold in an orderly manner by Forsyth after the escrow expired in late the following month..., the shares then promptly went from $1.06 to to $1.20 and in fact never got close to $1.06 again... coincidence? I think not.

[Beagle]

What the company says about its FY19 outlook, if anything, and what Macquarie have to say is something that will be of intense market interest. I'm not fussed with Forbar's FY19 eps guess.

[trader_jackson]

I'm not fussed with Forbar's FY19 eps guess.

Neither am I, in fact I hope they are wrong big time - they have been waay wrong with ARV, for about a year now they have been saying the share price should be north of $1.50... so should give you/me/Mr Market confidence they have a track record of being way out
Not just relating to ARV's valuation either by the way

[Beagle]

Neither am I, in fact I hope they are wrong big time - they have been waay wrong with ARV, for about a year now they have been saying the share price should be north of $1.50... so should give you/me/Mr Market confidence they have a track record of being way out
Not just relating to ARV's valuation either by the way

LOL I couldn't agree more. Many years ago I used to be a client of Forbar. One of several reasons I left was the "quality" of their research. All I will say further on the matter is I have no regrets whatsoever about leaving.

[winner69]

If 4 guru analysts have a target of 106 to 109 it would suggest OCA is heaps over priced at 111 (allowing for them being targets presumably a year out). (The bible 4 traders)

[winner69]

All they said a month or so ago was .....On track to meet IPO Forecast for year ended 31 May 2018 •


Wonder what actually means? what IPO forecast ..... Revenue? NPAT?, EBITDA?, Underlying EBITDA?, Underlying Profit?

Maybe all of them ...I don't know

[value_investor]

Looks like the market is saying they will only "meet" forecast guidance of 8.43 cps underlying profit. If they make that guidance that puts them on a trailing PE of 13.1.
Maybe that's where its at until they can demonstrate more growth and get some more runs on the board ?

The only reason why I have a small parcel of ownership at this moment and not a larger one is because while they may reach their IPO forecasts. I haven't got enough to go on in terms of FY19 results and beyond. This is why I see it priced at a lower valuation than the others in the sector. Is this going to be a 5%, a 15% or a SUM type game of 25% growth year on year. Unfortunately, the company is too young in terms of available information to make any calls.

The land bank is impressive and a lot can be done, however the amount of units being built at scale has not hit the heights on some of the others in the industry. While the demand in the care industry will come, we'll see how much of it comes to OCA and when.

[Beagle]

The only reason why I have a small parcel of ownership at this moment and not a larger one is because while they may reach their IPO forecasts. I haven't got enough to go on in terms of FY19 results and beyond. This is why I see it priced at a lower valuation than the others in the sector. Is this going to be a 5%, a 15% or a SUM type game of 25% growth year on year. Unfortunately, the company is too young in terms of available information to make any calls.

The land bank is impressive and a lot can be done, however the amount of units being built at scale has not hit the heights on some of the others in the industry. While the demand in the care industry will come, we'll see how much of it comes to OCA and when.

Fair comment and I agree its a young company which needs to put more runs on the board. Management have good credentials and skin in the game and their land holdings and degree of consented developments shows promise but its like a filly showing a bit of promise at the trials, we'll see how it goes in its first proper lap around the track later this week. SUM other companies have a much longer track record of staying power in terms of growth and definitely deserve to trade at a pretty sizeable PE premium until OCA proves its capabilities over time.

[Blue Skies]

Already another big off market order (100,000 at 1.11) going through this morning.

[winner69]

Already another big off market order (100,000 at 1.11) going through this morning.

Thats good ....isn't it?

[Xerof]

worry bead masseuses selling to the patient for the next couple of days

[winner69]

At least it didn’t close at 110 ....that’s promising

[Xerof]

tomorrow winner, probably

[winner69]

The overhang is in the news

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/8a6dcae0/restrictions-lift-on-oceania-healthcare-57-stake-this-friday-may-create-overhang.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Restrictions%20lift%20on%20Oceania%20 Healthcare%2057%20stake%20this%20Friday%20may%20cr eate%20overhang&utm_content=Restrictions%20lift%20on%20Oceania%20H ealthcare%2057%20stake%20this%20Friday%20may%20cre ate%20overhang+CID_0edc47e20794e4614018c149e793604 8&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle8a6dcae0restri ctions-lift-on-oceania-healthcare-57-stake-this-friday-may-create-overhanghtml

I think this ‘overhang’ is just one big red herring but punters tend to think too much these days and worry too much.

[Lewylewylewy]

Risks here are the average age of properties + the fact its brownfield dev. Could mean a big cost ahead (not a problem for long term investors). I also have concerns about the fact that they don't pay as much as SUM, which i see as exposed risk to future govt policy.

Next year will bring more confidence on the business model for short and medium term investors. Action on the overhang will also be telltale in the shorter term. A bad result due to high costs one year could unduly see OCA being marked as a dog, which is why I sold out (I'd prefer less short term risk with the current political environment so i can exit with a profit for the year if required).

Other than that, they have a great position as the top carer (which i see as risk mitigating, but also a feel good investment), they have great accountants and management. The SP is cheap for long term investors, but also potentially cheap for short and medium term investors who accept some sort term risk.

Currently im sticking with SUM, buying the dips (possibly currently percieved by the market as fully priced). Interestingly SUM seem to be perceived as a defensive stock at the moment (imo).

[bull....]

The overhang is in the news

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/8a6dcae0/restrictions-lift-on-oceania-healthcare-57-stake-this-friday-may-create-overhang.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Restrictions%20lift%20on%20Oceania%20 Healthcare%2057%20stake%20this%20Friday%20may%20cr eate%20overhang&utm_content=Restrictions%20lift%20on%20Oceania%20H ealthcare%2057%20stake%20this%20Friday%20may%20cre ate%20overhang+CID_0edc47e20794e4614018c149e793604 8&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle8a6dcae0restri ctions-lift-on-oceania-healthcare-57-stake-this-friday-may-create-overhanghtml

I think this ‘overhang’ is just one big red herring but punters tend to think too much these days and worry too much.

think the overhang will hang over the share price until resolved, who wants to buy and then they sell out at a big discount to market?

[Beagle]

Risks here are the average age of properties + the fact its brownfield dev. Could mean a big cost ahead (not a problem for long term investors). I also have concerns about the fact that they don't pay as much as SUM, which i see as exposed risk to future govt policy.

Next year will bring more confidence on the business model for short and medium term investors. Action on the overhang will also be telltale in the shorter term. A bad result due to high costs one year could unduly see OCA being marked as a dog, which is why I sold out (I'd prefer less short term risk with the current political environment so i can exit with a profit for the year if required).

Other than that, they have a great position as the top carer (which i see as risk mitigating, but also a feel good investment), they have great accountants and management. The SP is cheap for long term investors, but also potentially cheap for short and medium term investors who accept some sort term risk.

Currently im sticking with SUM, buying the dips (possibly currently percieved by the market as fully priced). Interestingly SUM seem to be perceived as a defensive stock at the moment (imo).

SUM companies have a proven history of high growth, others need to confirm their batting average over time. I see this as fairly priced on a trailing PE of 13 with potential for PE expansion as they prove up their business model over the next 2-3 years.

[percy]

I recently brought back in taking my average cost per share up a bit.
Earl Gasparich impressed me at the presentation I attended late last year.
Chair,Elizabeth Coutts has impressed me for a number of years as an Ebos director.
Director Gregory Tomlinson has impressed me as a major shareholder/director of HBL.He has a proven history in the retirement sector and has real "skin on the line" with OCA.
As OCA gets more runs on the board I expect I will add to my modest holding.

[King1212]

I recently brought back in taking my average cost per share up a bit.
Earl Gasparich impressed me at the presentation I attended late last year.
Chair,Elizabeth Coutts has impressed me for a number of years as an Ebos director.
Director Gregory Tomlinson has impressed me as a major shareholder/director of HBL.He has a proven history in the retirement sector and has real "skin on the line" with OCA.
As OCA gets more runs on the board I expect I will add to my modest holding.

Good on you Percy!! I can really find any good value shares now at NZX as all of shares are over priced. I think OCA is still good value.

[Blue Skies]

Let's see, top senior management (tick) with their own skin in the game (tick) award winning service delivery (tick ) (usually results companies get more than their fair share of the business), excellent land bank (tick) good development pipeline (tick) exponentially increasing tail winds in this sector (tick) results to date excellent (tick), under ave PE (tick) BUT everyone want 'runs on the board' as well! :laugh:haha

oops, only trouble is, as soon as there's 'runs on the board' might have to pay a lot more for the shares.

Just speculation of course and they might go out for a duck!

I don't imagine there will be much change after tomorrow, but do think the share price will double at some stage, just a question of how long it takes.

[Blue Skies]

I recently brought back in taking my average cost per share up a bit.
Earl Gasparich impressed me at the presentation I attended late last year.
Chair,Elizabeth Coutts has impressed me for a number of years as an Ebos director.
Director Gregory Tomlinson has impressed me as a major shareholder/director of HBL.He has a proven history in the retirement sector and has real "skin on the line" with OCA.
As OCA gets more runs on the board I expect I will add to my modest holding.

Thanks Percy, that's great to hear, really bodes well for the future of this company

[percy]

[QUOTE=Blue Skies;722319]

oops, only trouble is, as soon as there's 'runs on the board' might have to pay a lot more for the shares.

The way I invest is to do as much research as I can,then if I like what I find I buy a small position.
If I am wrong I sell,if results prove I am right I buy more.
Yes you pay more,but it is always best to add to a winning position,while cutting your loses..
Comes down to companies doing what they say they will do.